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81
Thinking about it some more, base 7 has some argument for the best approximation of e (relative to investment).

Realistically, if you did operate somewhere within base 2, you'd probably think in base 4 or base 8, and either one ends up using the equivalent of 6 binary digits.  (The base 2 approximation only scores higher if you use 5 binary digits).  Or even worse you might be using base 16 and end up using 8 binary digits (which would slip things down to 4th).
82
Discussion / Re: Marvel Snap - Cards, Analysis, etc.
« Last post by Tide on January 26, 2024, 03:41:47 PM »
So we're going to do something different today - let's look at one of the most prominent and popular decks in SNAP. It's not necessarily the most successful, but it is a deck that pops up pretty frequently due to its accessability. I've also mentioned it a few times plus we've gone over a lot of it's most essential component, so it will be easier to digest.

Without further ado, let's look at a typical Sera Miracle deck



General Gameplan
Sera Miracle is equivalent to a Blue MtG deck that is loaded with counter spells. It's primarily a reaction based deck that is focused on playing tech cards to shut down an opponent's game plan. The deck is flexible with numerous different subs (based on the flavor of the month, your own preference as well as the availability of what cards you have) so it tends to be a deck that most players can assemble the moment they get out of Pool 2 with a little investment. The major card you will be likely missing then is Sera but the deck is functional without her and you can grab Zabu as an alternative. This deck focuses on last minute turnarounds for the biggest cube gains possible. There are of course fringe cases where you will be playing on curve but those tend to be cases where if you don't stop your opponent right there, you're probably going to lose - Hi Wong.

The deck focuses on having low tempo for most of the game until around maybe Turn 5. The main reasons for this is to keep priority low because you have a lot of tech cards that only work if you go second. Thus, understanding and being able to control priority is key. Sunspot is a great addition here because he covers two of the decks main weakness: 1) it's low power output and b) the tendency to have a lot of float. You're not often running Armor though, so you have to be careful that you don't accidentally Killmonger your own Sunspot. There are ways around this of course - one of the new cards recently released specifically guards 1 and 6 cost cards from destruction. You can easily slot her in to guard your Sunspot in favor of another tech spot. The rest then comes down to Turn 6. By Turn 3 or 4, you need to have a good idea of what the opponent is doing because then you can properly weigh your chances of winning. If you still don't have the tech card in hand drawn, or the opponent isn't playing something you can tech against, you're probably in trouble.

Despite being the namesake of the deck, this deck does function without Sera. It's not as explosive though because despite being available for only 1 turn, that 1 turn lets you dump a huge combination of cards. Sera + Zabu is -2 on Cost for your 4 cost and those 2 costs become 1 Cost. So you can quite literally dump your hand on 6 when the pieces line up. Some variants of this deck also play Magik (this one does) to increase the chances of a Sera draw making for even crazier Turn 7 Turnarounds.

Outside of the deck being low power, it also suffers though from being largely prediction related. Some decks such as Kitty Shuri for example, can both afford to have a couple of tech cards but also can just do their standard solitaire game plan if your opponent isn't interfering and end up with a sizable point count at the end of the game. Not Sera Miracle though. So many of your cards are below par that if you aren't countering something, you're probably just going to lose on straight tempo loss. This deck has a very high learning curve for that reason. You need to be able to predict what the opponent is holding and then be able to play the appropriate counter. You also need to be able to math quickly because that will determine whether or not your paltry output is enough, which sometimes despite countering an opponent's plan, isn't.

Key Cards:
The most important cards on this list despite the name of the deck are probably your 4 Costs. Shang and Enchantress can hard counter really greedy play styles and Absorbing Man let's you double up on it. However, the fact that they are all 4s is a FeelsBadMan moment on Turn 6 because you can only play 1. That's why having Zabu OR Sera on field is important. Past that, the rest of the deck is very flexible. Zabu/Sera are obvious additions here to support your 4s going down by 1, but the rest is kind of up to you. This variant I run adds Maximus and Aero for power, but you can also go with something like Ms. Marvel and Gladiator. You can also run stuff like Cosmo, despite being contrary to the deck because Cosmo wants priority instead of not.

General Play Lines:

Turn 1: Play Echo/Sunspot in a desired lane. If you don't have the variant that covers your own Sunspot, be very careful because you might blow up your own Sunspot by accident.

Turn 2: Almost always Zabu if you have it. Your 2s are otherwise holds to tech against other cards. SWitch kills bad locations or extremely favourable one for an opponent. Shadow King's power reset is best done at the end of the game. Otherwise, you pass.

Turn 3: Turn 3 is interesting here because like Turn 2, you're probably not playing Killmonger on 3. Some exceptions exist - like blowing up an opponent's Sunspot before you play yours - but you're likely covering a Turn 1/2 play versus actually playing anything on Curve. Magik comes down on this turn if you are running her. You don't have anything to guard Limbo though, so be wary of an opponent cutting off your Limbo.

Turn 4: See above. Turn 3 in that you're most likely covering for a Turn 1-2 play. If you're running Ms. Marvel as an establisher, she'll probably come down here.

Turn 5: This is a critical turn for this deck because unlike decks that don't have Turn 5 as being as important, here, Sera Miracle relies on Turn 5 to set up a Turn 6 play. If you've already played Zabu and want to cover it, the Cosmo variants can place it down to stop an opponent from shutting it down. Otherwise, Sera can be played here as can Aero to redirect an opponent's play and set up a single tech card counter.

Turn 6: Play the tech cards you need to swing the game. Highly suggest you math out what your power totals are and see if it's adequate. If not, you Retreat. If Limbo is on field, then you should play Aero for the redirect or Sera for the end of the game (see Turn 5)

Turn 7: Repeat of Turn 6 more or less. Use Enchantress to stop Ongoing stacks, Shang to kill big bodies, Shadow King to get rid of pump cards, Killmonger for 1 cost hate, etc.

Sample Game to Come!


83
number bases

You know, it occurs to me that when doing comparisons between number bases, I never looked at the expansion of e, probably the second most important number after pi.

e is 2.71828182...

Base 2 family:

10.10110111111

OK, well, a few possible approximations here.

One is rounding up to 1.11, approximating e as 2.75.

But a very good one is rounding up at the next spot: 1.10111.  This is an excellent approximation, and in fact there's a very good reason for this, the continued fraction of e, 87/32 is one of the terms.  Speaking of, 11/4 is ALSO one of the terms.

Base 7

I'm going to jump to base 7, cause I happen to know that one additional good term in the continued fraction is 19/7.

2.5012410

Yep, obviously you approximate it as 2.5, and probably don't go any deeper than that.

Base 3 family

2.20110112

So yeah, the 2 + 2/3 approximation exits, it's ehh...a little bit worse than approximating as 2.75.  2.667.  8/3 is also in the continued fraction.

What about 2.2011?  In decimal that's 2.7160.  So I mean, not bad, and happens to play nice with base 9.

Base 5

2.32434

OK, so the best we can do here I think is round up at the second digit after the decimal.  2.33.  In decimal that looks about like 2.72, so about as accurate as the longer base 3 approximation, but you're dealing with fewer digits (or less information dense digits if comparing this to base 9).

Base 6

2.415052

So...there's a two digit approximation of 2.42, or a three digit approximation of 2.415.  I think that's as far as you'd go.  The two digit approximation is a bit worse than the base 5 one.  2.27222.  The three digit approximation is 2.7176, which is quite accurate, but three digits.

Base 10

Obviously you've got the 2.7 approximation.  2.72 is also okay.  Probably wouldn't use more digits.

Base 11

2.79A0400

Those two 0s in a row are pretty eye-popping, but realistically you're not doing a 6 digit approximation.  You're using a calculator at that point.

But I think there's two pretty good approximations here.  2.8 is pretty nice (in base 10 that's 2.7272).  2.7A is also quite good.  2.7190.  Also better than the 2 digit decimal version

Base 12

2.8752360

Wow, that just sucks.

Best one relative to amount of calculation you need to put in is probably 2.9.  Which in decimal is roughly a 2.75 approximation.

Base 13

2.9450B

No, we're not going to use a 4 digit approximation in base 13.

Again, I'd probably use 2.9, which in decimal is a 2.69--slightly better than the one digit approximation base 12 has.

Base 14

2.A0AD

Obviously this one is going to be nice, cause base 7 is nice.

Base 15

2.AB930

OK, so you round up to 2.B probably.  That's a 2.733.  Not great, but about as good as the base 13 one.

---

To put this into a final score like I did with pi

e:

#1: 5 digits of base 2 (score -5.58.  Worth noting the 2 digit approximation despite being a continued fraction wasn't great scoring: -2.51)
#2: 1 digit of base 7 (score -4.68)
#3: 2 digits of base 5 (score -4.06)
#4: 1 digit of base 14 (score -3.68)
#5: Base 11 (2 digits gets a score of -3.03, 1 digit gets a score of -2.86)
#6: Base 6 (2 digit gets a score of -2.36, 3 digit is a bit worse than that).
#7: Base 3 (for the one digit approximation -2.11.  But the 4 digit approximation scores similarly)
#8: Base 10 (-2.06 for the two digit approximation, but the 1 digit approximation also scores similarly)
#9: Base 15 (-1.67 for the one digit approximation)
#10: Base 13 (-1.03 for the one digit approximation)
#11: Base 12 (-0.92 for the one digit approximation)

Base 12 dead last again, LOL.

Mostly I got inspired to do this cause I realized this was yet another place base 7 was going to score mysteriously well, but what I didn't think about is that base 2 scores even better cause it's also a continued fraction.  Don't get too hung up on the base 2 representation being 5 digits of course, they're base 2 digits, so like...two digits in base 8.
84
NES tetris

So a video popped up that said 3 million points with double killscreen, and I thought, well, that's interesting cause by my calculations you can only get about 2.5 million up to double killscreen.

And...that's still correct, no error on my part there.  HOWEVER, this is a bot (coded with roughly human reflexes) that proceeds to get many tetrises on double killscreen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JbDm8EOQps

This is with 300 ms reaction time, so will take that long to respond to seeing what's in the "next piece window", and also 30 Hz rolling, which a lot of people are able to do these days just...no one is all that consistent.

Perhaps what the competitive scene might look like in a few years?
85
Tournaments / Re: Futurama 2023 Week 4
« Last post by Jo'ou Ranbu on January 25, 2024, 06:18:55 PM »
Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Yuna (Final Fantasy X) - At first, I thought this'd be a really complicated match, since AoE isn't easy to come by in FFX and what Yuna's Aeons have in that regard is saddled with bad recharge times. But no, Heat's durability is actually barely above PC HP, she just phones Anima and makes him die before anything happens.
Goddess (Final Fantasy VI) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4) - Belial is DANGEROUSLY close to OHKOing Goddess with a Tank Drop. She -really- doesn't have to.

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) - Mei-ling's Bounded Shot crits ignore defense and she has an initiative 2HKO as is. Worst part: even if you respect Telele more than I do, it doesn't hit the stats guns use for their damage, so Kyra's really hoping for insane luck on Bindwa. Not really happening.
86
Super Metroid

Played this randomly for the first time in a few years. I'm rusty but 52% in 1:24 is still pretty good. Just a really fun game to play around with even if the controls feel a bit clunky these days.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses

New run idea: everyone trains exactly one skill. No variety! Well mostly. More of an interesting science experiment than an actual challenge run. It was harder than normal, but not dramatically.

1. Each character can only train one skill. "Train" covers faculty training (Byleth), setting as a goal, active instruction, and group tasks. It does not cover any automatic training before recuirtment (obviously) or actions in battle. However...
2. Characters whose chosen skill is a weapon or magic type (i.e. swords, lances, axes, bows, brawling, reason, faith) can ONLY use that weapon or magic type in battle. Characters who have a movement or authority skill are not restricted in this way.
3. Seminars are banned.
4. For battles where the deployment limit is 11 or less, each deployed character must be specializing in a different skill. For battles where the deploy limit is 12, there may be exactly one pair of characters sharing a specialization, since there are only 11 trainable skills. Adjutants may have any specialization, though rule (2) still applies to them.
5. Characters' advanced/master class(es) must in some way correspond to their specialization. i.e. I can't get Jeritza, train him in armour, and then keep him in non-armour advanced classes.

Results of the above rules:
1. Recruitment of many students (especially Ferdinand and Caspar) becomes significantly more difficult.
2. Most characters will likely need to certify in a one-prerequisite Advanced class. However, some caveats:
a. Lance specialists will likely need to go through Cavalier to gain enough skill exp to reach Paladin. Lance specialists basically need to start with at least E+ riding to have a shot at this path.
b. Riding specialists will need to use lances in battle in order to reach Cavalier / Paladin.
c. Flying specialists will need to use axes in battle to reach Wyvern, optional lances for Pegasus.
d. Armour specialists will need to use axes in battle to reach Fortress Knight.
e. Authority specialists will likely have serious trouble reaching any high-end classes. Dancer, however, is a legal choice for them.

Anyway, the hardcore mono-focus has interesting effects, particularly on the characters I focused on manual training for. Because authority/armour doesn't really need much training beyond B, riding/flying beyond A+, this means that the weapon specialists got a lot of attention. Anyway, for them:
-Characters reached A in their primary specialization around Chapter 7. Great for Sylvain (Swift Strikes) and Dorothea (Meteor).
-Characters reached A+ around Chapter 9.
-Characters reached S around Chapter 11(!)
-Characters reached S+ around Chapter 15. Crazy.
Coversely, authority obviously caused problems. Edelgard and Byleth hit B in late part 1, others (not Felix) hit C around then or slightly earlier, and never hit B... except Petra who used a Knowledge Gem for much of part 2. Felix hit D authority in early part 2 and then I wondered why I bothered.


Unit notes include battles/kills in parentheses, in ascending kill order.

Linhardt (faith, 30/13): Priest->Bishop. Seiros Holy Monks. I mean aside from losing armour- and flying-killing this isn't too different from vanilla Linhardt, Physic all day with occasional Warp or Stride. His damage was wretched but White Range+ (yes!) lategame actually mattered for expanded threat.

Jeritza (flying, 28/14): Wyvern Rider. Training him in flying gives him Darting Blow, so he was pretty generically cool, though since he didn't get Alert Stance+ or even to Wyvern Lord (due to failing five ~70% certifications in a row) he was definitely the backup one.

Mercedes (riding, 78/46): Mage->Valkyrie. Empire Magic Users. Asked to join around chapter... 10 I think? And I realized that I kinda wanted a second Physic user, so I set her to riding since she already had C+ reason and faith and thus made a capable Valkyrie. She certified in Chapter 14 and I added her to the team then. Didn't get Fortify or Ragnarok but wielding Thyrsus and sniping things from range 5 while also having Healing Staff Physic is still real good as it turns out.

Hubert (authority, 109/50): Mage->Dancer. Unlike normal Hubert he can't use any faith magic at all, and he was slower to get his key spells, so definitely subpar until dancer made this not matter. Authority is important but super authority focus not so much, apparently, though it'd be an interesting thought for Dimitri if I tried this run on AM.

Balthus (armour, 160/63): Brigand->Fortress Knight. Impregnable Wall battalion. Fortress Knight just ruins units, even ones designed for it. I got him in Chapter 3; at that point he was one of my best units with Curved Shot and Smash and good str/def. Falls off with time as he always tends to but when Advanced hits he really fell off a cliff, couldn't kill anything and all he could do is struggle to reach better units and protect them with Wall. Ended up like Level 27 when everone else was in the mid 30's.

Bernadetta (riding, 157/65): Cavalier->Paladin. Lances were her weapon of focus, but since I couldn't train her in them she didn't get Vengeance until like... Chapter 10? By which point other people were getting better killing power anyway, so she never really excelled. At least having both Tempest Lance and Curved Shot early was useful. Was replaced by Mercedes after Chapter 13.

Felix (brawling, 187/93): Brawler->Grappler. Jeralt's Mercenaries. From here on we hit the combat mainstays. Easy to recruit thanks to Byleth being a swordy. Anyway no 2 range sucks. Pretty good at killing things if he reached melee but definitely not perfect? Sylvain was better even at that. Really wish Brawl Avoid didn't require faith for this, I kinda used him as a semi-dodgetank with Jeralt+Ingrid adjutant and he'd be so much better if I could go all the way. As is, kinda meh, and particularly bad in Intermediate despite Nimble Combo.

Sylvain (lances, 234/110): Brigand/Cavalier->Paladin. Supreme Armoured Co. Did you know Chapter 2 Sylvain starts with D+ axes, letting him reach Brigand? Wild. Anyway Swift Strikes in 7, with Death Blow soon after, is silly. Kills all but the bulkiest enemies with high move and canter, yes please. Lategame CF isn't too cavalry-friendly as always which hurts him a bit but still very solid overall. Turns out pure lance is very much a valid Sylvain build!

Shamir (bows, 205/127): Sniper. Empire Snipers. Sylvain and Linhardt don't lose much from mono-focus, sure. Shamir, though? Basically loses nothing, besides B rank battalions. Get Hunter's Volley, kill things with Hunter's Volley. What more can be said?

Byleth (swords, 301/131): Thief->Enlightened One. Gloucester Knights. Swords would not be a fun specialization for a lot of people due to the lack of 2 range, as usual Creator Sword goes a long way toward making this more palatable. So, for that matter, is Enlightened One; even with magic banned, having +1 move on Swordmaster is a big deal. Windsweep is fun. Otherwise, generically solid stats.

Edelgard (axes, 305/151): Brigand->Warrior. Empire Heavy Soldiers. Emperor vs. Warrior is a reasonable debate (power/speed vs. defence), Armored Lord is trash though. Anyway, I gave her Fetters of Dromi to make Raging Storm better and generally to get my strongest statistically unit to better places faster. A pale shadow of Wyvern Edelgard but still one of the better units throughout the game.

Petra (flying, 313/145): Pegasus/Brigand->Wyvern Rider->Wyvern Lord. Galatea Pegasus (eventually). Alert Stance+ in Chapter 9 is a fun time! That said lack of other sources of evasion midgame (namely B authority for Galatea or Secret Transport, and a flying adjutant, and lower prowess skills) do hold the build back a bit. Had to really muscle it out in lance and then axe training to reach pegasus and wyvern. So a bit awkward, but with Death/Darting Blow and AS+ she was never going to be anything less than outstanding.

Dorothea (reason, 273/164): Mage->Warlock. Vestra Sorcery Engineers. Blast away with range 5-6 Thoron, great times. Black Tomefaire is wonderful, she one-shots axes/swords/bows and one-rounds armours all the way to the very end of the game. Not having healing was bad but early Meteor/Agnea/Range+/Tomefaire go a long way for making up for it, really good for a 4 move unit.

I dunno who the overall MVP was. Probably one of the Eagles women or Sylvain.
87
Tournaments / Re: Futurama 2023 Week 4
« Last post by DjinnAndTonic on January 25, 2024, 04:14:59 AM »
Doing the easy ones first during my work break...

Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Yuna (Final Fantasy X) - Aeon Yuna handles this on turn one, Aeonless Yuna explodes. But I allow Anima, so no problem.
Goddess (Final Fantasy VI) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) - Bounded Shot and Lightsword should do the trick.
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves Christmas) vs Anna Pascal (Triangle Strategy)

Middle

Minoriko Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)
Dedue Molinaro (Fire Emblem Three Houses) vs Ba'Thraz (Chained Echoes) - Yeah, I guess Dedue 2 rounds

Light

Amalia (Chained Echoes) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage) - Amalia is so bad, but I wanted this to be a closer match.
Mediator (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Zelkov (Fire Emblem Engage)


Data Mine

Bravely Default II - Purchased! I'll get to it eventually
Chained Echoes - Completed
Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance - Completed
Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny - Completed
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless - Completed
Fire Emblem Engage - Completed
Labyrinth of Touhou: Gensokyo and the Heaven-Piercing Tree - Haven't played, but I'm interested
Octopath Traveler II - About half way through the C2s, my current in-progress game
Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess - Completed
Rhapsody III: Memories of Marl Kingdom - Completed
This Way Madness Lies - Completed
Triangle Strategy - Only finished one route, but seems good enough?

I would say we should rank new Tales and Star Ocean, but honestly those ARPGs have gotten so complex that trying to properly stat topic them is a fool's errand...
88
Tournaments / Re: Futurama 2023 Week 4
« Last post by Cmdr_King on January 25, 2024, 01:06:14 AM »
Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Yuna (Final Fantasy X)
Goddess (Final Fantasy VI) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4)- I'll have ot remember to double check these in case math says otherwise.

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV)- Mei-ling's got some ITD and Light Sword should take some of the strain off her resources if necessary.
Cthulhu (Cthulhu Saves Christmas) vs Anna Pascal (Triangle Strategy)- no vote

Middle

Minorio Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V)- No vote
Dedue Molinaro (Fire Emblem Three Houses) vs Ba'Thraz (Chained Echoes)- No vote

Light

Amalia (Chained Echoes) vs Ivy (Fire Emblem Engage)- No vote
Mediator (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Zelkov (Fire Emblem Engage)- huh.  This.  Seems right?  Zelkov is basically better Heather I think but not better in ways that matter here as far as I can tell.


Data Mine

Bravely Default II
Chained Echoes
Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance- Played
Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny- Played
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless
Fire Emblem Engage- Played
Labyrinth of Touhou: Gensokyo and the Heaven-Piercing Tree
Octopath Traveler II
Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess- Played
Rhapsody III: Memories of Marl Kingdom
This Way Madness Lies- Played
Triangle Strategy
89
Tournaments / Re: Futurama 2023 Week 4
« Last post by 074 on January 25, 2024, 12:02:28 AM »
Godlike

Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Yuna (Final Fantasy X) - I don't allow Aeons as per the party substitution proxy clause, and all of Heat's parts immune Holy.  (Before you say that Expel is just gravity, Xanadu exists).  Beatdowns ensue after several stat breaks, possibly sooner if Freeze lands off of Gelid Torrent.
Goddess (Final Fantasy VI) vs Belial (Wild ARMs 4) - From everything I'm seeing in the topics, yeah.  Splortched by tanks.

Heavy

Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) - Telele doesn't hit SaGa gun damage?  Ouch.


Middle

Minoriko Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V) - Punisher gets a taste of her own medicine.  Minoriko immunes average magic damage before buffing, and has a magic damage adjustment mod of -0.922 PCHP after *one* use of Owotoshi Harvester.  Considering Mana Oracle inflicts its damage over five hits, Minoriko has little to fear here.  And she goes first.  There is no universe in which the popoto makes it out alive against the potato harvest goddess.


Data Mine

Bravely Default II - Have started, need to play more of
Chained Echoes - Have not played
Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance - Have not played
Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny - Have not played
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless - Need to play
Fire Emblem Engage - Have not played
Labyrinth of Touhou: Gensokyo and the Heaven-Piercing Tree - Cleared, Stat Topiced.
Octopath Traveler II - Played, need to clear.
Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess - Have not played
Rhapsody III: Memories of Marl Kingdom - Have not played
This Way Madness Lies - Have not played
Triangle Strategy - Played
90
Tournaments / Re: Futurama 2023 Week 4
« Last post by Cmdr_King on January 24, 2024, 06:25:56 PM »
As things stand, next round will have a yea or nay vote on Persona 1 and Persona 5.  So if there's anything not on the ranked list you've played but I don't have you listed, poke me here or on discord.  And of course if any of these games have 9+ players it would go up for rankings as well, but that's uhhh unlikely.
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