Author Topic: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week  (Read 1813 times)

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Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa)
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1)

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8)
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10)


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2)
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6)
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB)


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4)

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK)
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10)


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10)
Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3)

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)



Voting will close at 11:00 PM CST on 9/24/2023.
<+Nama-EmblemOfFire> ...Have the GhebFE guy and the ostian princess guy collaborate.
 <@Elecman> Seems reasonable.

074

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2023, 05:31:21 AM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1)

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8)
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10) - I am *quite* certain there is nothing Nailah can do to get around the Distortion.  Belial can pick Nailah off at her leisure.


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2)
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa) - Kneejerk estimate off of what I recall, I could be wrong.

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6) - One of these two has Noiseblaster.  One of these two comes from a series noted for its absolute lack of statusblockers.  You do the math.


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4) - Doubles and kills before October gets a turn.  How the hell did the stars align to get Tony a shot to Winner's Finals?!

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK)
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10)


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10)
Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3) - right i'll have to figure this one out.

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)
<+Nama-EmblemOfFire> ...Have the GhebFE guy and the ostian princess guy collaborate.
 <@Elecman> Seems reasonable.

Magic Fanatic

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2023, 06:06:09 AM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa) - My memory is kinda bad, but the dregs of it say that Killer can't threaten T260G the normal way, and she can just set up and make him go boom.

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8) - Ghost Plate blocks the biggest way I'd hype Leopold.
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10)


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2) - I...  Want to say Levin, but I don't know enough about XF to be sure.
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa) - EDIT: There were details I forgot.

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6) - Noiseblaster, yeah.
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB) - Auron uses Initiative Zombie Attack to break Ness's biggest gimmick.  Ness counters with PSI Paralysis, which doesn't wear off, shuts off all physicals, and Auron can do *nothing* about.


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2) - Unless I'm missing something big, Red is faster, 2HKOs with his physical, and equips a Headband to block Sleep.  I'm not sure there's anything Elena can do to stop that.



Light:

Winners:

Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3) - While the way I see Suikoden 3 attacks working means Queen's getting at least one attack through Ginny's Evade, but then Ginny's building up FP like crazy for Gatlings that'd probably kill Queen a lot easier...  Hm.  Kneejerking this for now, but I'm open to interpretation.

Losers:

Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8) - While it's Poshul, FF8 hates the level of damage control any CC character has.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2023, 05:12:05 AM by Magic Fanatic »

Random Consonant

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2023, 07:53:44 AM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa) - Think so offhand?
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1) - Even assuming Rika gets around the evade, what does she do about freeze?

Losers:

Belial (WA4) vs. Nailah (FE10) - See here's the nommed FE godlike that has no theorhetical way around Distortion.


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2) - Yeah WA2 evade only applies to basic physicals, which Cancel Strike isn't, and Levin is faster by a good margin so Lilka would likely never get her game started anyways.
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6)
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB) - Yeah Paralysis is pretty much a complete lock here.  I don't think it'd shut down ODs offhand but the Eject ban means I don't think it'll matter.


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2) - Yeah sleep being out means I don't think Elena has any real chance here.
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4) - Dear lord Tony tripleturns her.

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK) - Right, so both sides have issues here, timed cards aren't counterable but Flay's still all ST save for Screwdriver so Byleth will still get to counter the opening hit, Byleth 3RKOs with SotC at base, goes first, and won't be downed by timed cards before they see a second turn.  However, and here's the real problem... Flay has both Blocker and Last Stand and SotC has something resembling A Crit Rate and those make a big ol' mess of things.  But honestly, the thing with the timed cards is that is also gives Byleth's modest evasion a chance to shine... and two rounds of Buster Star won't 2HKO on average once that and Renewal are accounted for (this is assuming an average that includes phantom PCs for Trick Card purposes for the record, and since Byleth has a good luck stat Flay's own crits aren't likely to be a factor)... but Raiden Charge exists and does have fast recharge on it... so I think the turn order in that case looks like Byleth -> Flay (Raiden Charge) -> Flay (Buster Star), Byleth counters -> Byleth (heals the opening buster star mostly off) -> two Buster Star TC (~46.7% total damage) -> Flay (Buster Star), counter... yeah the problem with that is that then Byleth's turns start breaking up the timed cards in an annoying way so it can't do enough about the fact that Renewal is basically counteracting the time Blocker/Last Stand is buying him.

tl;dr, Flay likely loses in a scenario where Byleth gets more than 6 SotC swings against him, doesn't seem to have a way to avoid such a scenario that I can see, and very well might lose even if there is.

Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10) - I actually think this is right barring a more detailed mathematical breakdown.  Nephenee10's not actually that impressive thanks to Sentinel caps, even above average AS will keep her from doubling and her accuracy is below average so even if Florina tanks her AS by using a silver lance to avoid WTD and 3HKO she may well still be able to get a turn 2 dodge (and if you use a higher damage average than I do, well Nephenee just lost her 2HKO), meanwhile Nephenee can't really be said to be dodging in any relevent timeframe.   Really don't think javelins matter much here since those are even worse on accuracy.


Light:

Winners:

Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3) - If this is what people who have a more solid grasp of what Ginny's evade amount in DL practice than I do are thinking then I'm not about to disagree.

Losers:

Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2023, 09:02:28 PM by Random Consonant »

Tide

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2023, 03:03:04 PM »
Godlike:
Get banned, son

Losers:
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10) - IN THEORY, IF you see Nailah doubling and she activates Savage on her 1st strike, she could have a very remote shot. In practice though? Nah. Hard-walled by Distortion spam.


Heavy:

Winners:
Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2) - Lilka's starting evade isn't even that great IIRC, so there's no reason Levin just doesn't work his magic for this.

Losers:
Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6) - EDIT: Rapier has an argument for hitting armor weakness on Edgar, but the fact that it is effectively -14 MT from Sieglinde's damage means that even with the bonus damage, it ends up the exact same damage-wise for Eirika and that's not good enough. She needs to ORKO because otherwise, Edgar just locks her down with Noiseblaster and that's not happening.
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB) - Auron even has Zombiestrike to spoil the healing, but there's absolutely zero he can do about a Turn 1 Paralysis Alpha


Middle:

Winners:
Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2) - EDIT: As per the stat topics, Red comes extremely close to a 2HKO, using the 2 physicals + L1 Limit damage average. That Elena has slightly below average defenses and below average HP probably means he hits it on the dot.

Losers:
Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK) - Renewal probably gives Byleth a shot. I'm not 100% certain though, so will wait for some additional thoughts.
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10) - Kneejerk here as well. They are sort of similar but Neph has better concrete durability; don't think Flo's extra few points of evade will matter here.


Light:

Winners:
Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10) - Generally more competent. Heather probably dodges a Turn 1 stone on average, which is enough.

Losers:
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8) - Yeah, I have a tough time seeing how Selphie wins this. CC characters being able to vary the strength of their physical + when they drop their tech gives them a lot of damage control. Then there's the fact as was discussed in Week 1 that Selphie's base level 1 Crisis doesn't give her great options.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2023, 03:22:26 PM by Tide »
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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2023, 02:04:24 AM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa): No ITD in Killer's arsenal, and Attack Down doesn't stop Magnify which is a serious risk to OHKO him, and if not certainly 2HKO at worst.
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1): Once Frost Bait comes out to play Rika's probably in a world of trouble. To be fair, it's not a factor until very late, but I don't think she can quite dodge it entirely and she needs to. The earlier phases are a risk to kill her too.

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8): Ghost Plate lets Arceus do the usual nonsense. Leo doesn't even have dispel, not that it'd save him.
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10): Straightforward.


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2): While I would absolutely see Lilka's evade buffing working well here (the weakness of Cancel Strike vs evasion is a significant weakness in-game), Levin gets the drop on her and that's probably enough?)
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa): literally none of Asellus's blocking techniques work on BoundShot, so Emelia just goes first and 2HKOs. Asellus ID is not turn 1 unless you see her starting fights in mystical change.

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6): Noiseblaster should basically be a lock, uh Eirika might miss herself but that just gives Edgar a turn to apply magic damage for free.


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2): Just like against Ana, Red being able to equip an appropriate accessory and still go first and 2HKO is too much.
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4): October vs. boss, not great. She'd need to OHKO and Tony's not THAT frail.

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK): Probably the match that deserves the most analysis. Later.
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10): Kneejerk barring more detailed math. Florina's evade is just so much more impressive.


Light:

Winners:

Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3): Kneejerk that you need to be very good at evadable physicals to beat Virginia in Light.

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H): Karn just does too much damage, doubles Linhardt regardless.
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8): Chrono Cross damage control.

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2023, 03:36:15 AM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa)
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1)

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8)
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10)


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2)
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6)
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB)


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4)

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK)- I think?  I dunno this is mostly kneejerk, depends quite a bit when Flay's time cards land relative to Byleth's turns.
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10)


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10)
Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3)

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)
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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2023, 06:40:47 AM »
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10)

Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6)


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4)

Losers:

Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10)


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10)
Yeah, no Cupil Ring, so no dice.  Note that Heather's damage is bad enough that I actually ran the calcs - with the halfshifted killpoint, Fina comes out to ~42 RD HP, while 4x Heather attacks are 44-46 RD damage.  Heather needed that because she'd just get Eternum'd if she let Fina get to turn 3.
Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3)
I suppose.

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2023, 11:34:33 PM »
Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa)
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1)

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8)
Belial (WA4) (No 4D Pocket) vs. Nailah (FE10)


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka (WA2): Levin's hit-rate isn't very good, but he's usually fast enough to make it work... Lilka is certainly above average herself and has 'above average' evade (by like 5%). Lilka can give herself enormous breathing room with even 1 Quick, amping her speed and evade and starting a positive feedback loop.

Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6)
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB)


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4)

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay (MK)
Florina (FE7) vs. Nephenee (FE10): I think the durability and damage difference is too much for the evade to overcome.


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) vs. Heather (FE10)
Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3)

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie(FF8)

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2023, 01:48:03 PM »
Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa) - Killer's sub-PC HP, so uh yeah Magnify just blows him up.
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1) - See everyone else.

Arceus (PKMN) vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8) - uh yeah ghost plate just butchers Leopold, doesn't it

Levin Brenton (WAXF) vs. Lilka Eleniak (WA2) - Yeah, I really don't think I respect base WA2 character evade enough for Lilka to get going here.
Emelia (SaGa) vs. Asellus (SaGa) - pew pew

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar Roni Figaro (FF6) - No real comments, Edgar against the status vulnerable strikes again.
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB) - sure

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2) - yup
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4) - Guys, Tony is a good Middle.

Byleth Eisner (FE3H) vs. vs. Flay Gunnar (MK) - Burping Random.

Queen (S3) vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3) - You need to be really good at evadable physicals to beat Virginia in Light. Queen... is not really it.

Karn(BoF1) vs. Linhardt von Hevring (FE3H) - Ouch, Karn two-rounds through Renewal and isn't 2HKOed back.
Poshul(CC) vs. Selphie Tilmitt (FF8) - Damage control. CC characters have it.
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DragonKnight Zero

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2023, 08:16:37 PM »
Red XIII (FF7) vs. Elena (G2)  Uh yeah.  Even if Elena has something in her toolkit to avoid being two-shotted, I don't see her avoiding a Limit.

074

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Re: RPGVO 2023 Round 6, Winners Semi/Losers 3: Godlike is Doglike this week
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2023, 07:16:53 AM »
MATCH RESULTS

Godlike:

Winners:

Killer (SH3) vs. T260G (SaGa) ||||||
Rika (PSIV) vs. Fenrir (VP1) |||||

Losers:

Arceus (PKMN) |||| vs. Sir Leopold (DQ8)
Belial (WA4) |||||||| vs. Nailah (FE10)


Heavy:

Winners:

Levin Brenton (WAXF) |||||| vs. Lilka (WA2)
Emelia (SaGa) ||||||| vs. Asellus (SaGa)

Losers:

Eirika (FE8) vs. Edgar (FF6) |||||||||
Auron (FFX) vs. Ness (EB) ||||||


Middle:

Winners:

Red XIII (FF7) ||||||||| vs. Elena (G2)
October (CSTW) vs. Tony (WA4) |||||||

Losers:

Byleth (FE3H) ||| vs. vs. Flay (MK) |
Florina (FE7) |||| vs. Nephenee (FE10) ||


Light:

Winners:

Fina (SoA) | vs. Heather (FE10) |||
Queen (S3) | vs. Virginia Maxwell (WA3) ||||||

Losers:

Karn(BoF1) ||||| vs. Linhardt(FE3H)
Poshul(CC) |||||||| vs. Selphie(FF8)


Winners Bracket winners move on to Winners' Finals in Round 8.  Winners Bracket losers and Losers Bracket winners move on to the Losers Quarterfinals in Round 7.  Losers Bracket losers, of course, are eliminated.
<+Nama-EmblemOfFire> ...Have the GhebFE guy and the ostian princess guy collaborate.
 <@Elecman> Seems reasonable.