RPGVO 2023 Round 4, Winners' Quarterfinals: Light: Home to Thieves Since 1993

[074]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3)
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV)
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV)
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS)


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF)
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX)
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa)
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8)


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2)
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2)
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW)
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H)


Light

Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC)
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3)
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1)


Voting will end on 11:00 PM EST on Sunday, 9/10/2023.

[Random Consonant]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3)
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV) - Going with the option that doesn't require me to guess at Brose accuracy or hype it as working. e: Chaz can avoid a Magnify OHKO if he uses two shields but if neither Brose or Explode is turn 1 it doesn't matter since smashcan will just enforce a heallock anyways
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV) - This feels like one of those times where I wish the PS4 stat topic actually had notes on how well stats affect status odds because Rika sure as hell can't take a Hungry Fiend.  I don't... think Elim is turn 1 here but I'm not certain.  e: right, that detail.


Heavy

Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX) - yeah don't think this is working out for Auron.
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa)
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8)


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2) - Petrify blocker
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2)
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW) - Flay's not that impressive without timed cards being able to work their magic.
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H) - Once again, a typical WA4 boss, even one as questionable as Tony, is not something a FE dueler without significant evasion or the ability to kill on counters wants to face.


Light

Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC) - Doubles, counters, has evasion.
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3) - I think so?  Lindhardt isn't doubled if he uses Fire but Queen's average damage output gives her a 3HKO through Renewal and he'll need 6 Fires to kill which is too many.  Nosferatu stalling would be a thought but that gets Lin doubled and Queen does have Heavy Damage...

[Tide]

Godlike
Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3) - Apparently BOTH Killer 2 and 3 have ID on their physicals. And since Safeguard doesn't block ID and Ray may not even get it anyway, this means its only way to win this is a OHKO and I don't think Killer 2 is THAT frail (he's only 600 HP behind Killer 3 with only 1 dungeon inbetween)

Heavy
Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF) - Heal would erase quite a few hits if Alicia ever got a turn. But no, Levin just does Levin things since she has no notable evade to speak of.
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX) - Really bad match up for Auron. Just to add insult to injury, Lilka can also buff her evade for shits and giggles if she wants.


Middle
Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2) - Red goes first and comes pretty close to 2HKOing. Petrify Blocker probably seals the deal if you were hoping for Turn 1 status or something.
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2) - Blanca is bad against anyone who can outstall him due to SP limits. Elena is certainly in that mold.
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H) - Sylvain's a bit better I think because his durability and strength are a bit more, but yeah, don't think I buy those Javelin hits as enough. He's not Hilda or Edie.


Light
Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8) - Pretty sure Fina just goes for the Stone to ensure Selphie never sees a Limit
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC) - Heather's actually pretty good for the division. Poshul is textbook, and is basically outclassed.

[074]

Godlike

T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV) - This one's close to me.  While in-game, T2 is immune to death, PSIV has something like five types of instant death, and three affect mechs (Which immune the other two, suggesting a similar species resistance considering Mecs in SaGaFro have a similar set of blanket immunities).  I'll have to figure if Explode can land turn 1, since Brose is...forever a meme.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV) - I'm willing to bet Elim is still turn 1 here.
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS) - Having rechecked my math, Jenna is...honestly more durable than I recall.  Feeling she outslugs unless she's actually vulnerable to Freeze.  I don't recall her being so.


Heavy

Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa) - Looking at the stat topics and blockers, looks like Emelia can block the majority of Edgar's tricks at no relevant penalty, manages a 2HKO on average, is likely not 2HKO'd first?
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8) - Feeling confident that between her varied skill options and special evasion procs, Asellus is easily winning this.


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2) - Can block Petrify, may not need to.
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2) - Blanca vs. someone who can heal.
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H) - while I'm not sure how qualified I feel to vote here, I appreciate Tony's unexpected rampage across Middle.


Light

Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1) - ...the real question here is, will Ginny's evade and threat of Gatling get her the win faster than Karn's crits.  Riddle for the ages.

[Cmdr_King]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3)
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV)- I... yeah T2 having robot-specific weaknesses seems like enough to make Brose relevant to me.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV)- Elim checks Agility yeah?  Jowy's *pretty fast* so sure.
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS)


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF)
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX)
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa)- If she can block noiseblaster somehow that should be enough.
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8)- Kinda mirror match-y, shame for Eirika that Lifesprinkler has that ITE rider.


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2)
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2)
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW)
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H)


Light

Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC)- ... I think, I'll be honest I just don't wanna math this out so I'm kinda assuming Heather can do some shenanigans by manipulating her crit rate or her HP 1 proc or a key evade or something.
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3) Trusting Random's math.
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3) - Yeah, 'quaza needs a OHKO here and Hyper Beam isn't even 80% PC HP before buffing. Killer just IDs.
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV) - um yeah I'm not even sure Chaz avoids being OHKOed by Magnify and that's so not the only thing he has issues with. Explode is so not turn one against SaGa mec stat spreads (I'm not even sure it'd be turn two, which more or less ends the discussion forever).
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV) - As far as the formula on Elim is concerned, to me you need to be faster than Rika to reduce its accuracy below turn one, so that's that. If you see Jowy avoiding it first turn, he obviously wins.
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS) - uh ladies bhairava is evadable physical damage and gets owned by fenrir spoiling so hard and even 4hko damage one-shots individual jenna phases wow

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF) - Yeah, don't think Alicia really has the evade to screw Levin over.
Lilka Eleniak (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX) - Really odd match, but I think this is right: Zombie Attack isn't a factor, since even if you don't see it being healed by Restore,  by the third casting of Quick, Auron isn't really hitting Lilka ever outside overdrive. I suspect she makes it out long before that's a factor.
Edgar Roni Figaro (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa) - Ugly-ass spoiling, Emelia doesn't really care about the stat loss from BloodChalice and AngelBroach gives her in-built confusion immunity. She just fills Edgar's body with lead.
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8) - Asellus is so brutally anti-physical even before she Awakens I can't really see Eirika making this work. Doubling with Killing Edge is neat, I suppose, but it doesn't really get past Kasumi and Deflect stacking together.

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia Romanov (SH2) - I'm pretty sure Red 2HKOs average on the dot to me and he blocks Stone. I don't think Ana has much of anything to work this out effectively.
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2) - uh tell me how Blanca can actually outstall Elena here
Flay Gunnar (MK1) vs. October (CSTW) - Oh. Flay doesn't one-shot October. Goooooooooooooooodbye
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain Jose Gautier (FE3H) - Tony weirdly manages this because 1.36 pdur is nice, but not really enough to withstand four bullet salvos to the face and two Short Spear counters don't even add up to 40% PC HP. To make matters worse, Sylvain doesn't even have good Luck to mitigate criticals...

Linhardt von Hevring (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3) - Oh dear, Queen doubles Linhardt no matter what he equips and she's not far from 2HKOing (not two-rounding) as is. To make matters worse, she has decent mdef (decent SUIKODEN 3 MDEF), which cuts into Nosferatu's already limited effectiveness even further. Yeah, don't think this pans out for my genius twink.
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1) - Thinking the evade and durability difference seal this (Ginny's pdur is suspect, but Karn's is considerably worse).

[Pyro]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3)
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV)
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV)
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS): I suppose Jenna's supermove was physical! Though could Debilitate negate Fenrir's block?


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF): Cancelled.
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX): Healing/Buffing/Nuking options and he can't stop it.
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa)
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8)


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2): Stops both the fatal statii?
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2)
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW): Death.
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H)


Light

Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC)
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3)
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1)

[SnowFire]

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF)
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX)
Auron might have an argument in the normal DL, but banning Eject tosses his only route to victory.

Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2)
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2)
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H)

Light

Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC)
Evasion is generally good vs. CC.
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3)
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1)
Kneejerk.  Karn is not that bad and may actually outspeed here (although this is really more an artifact of being in a larger cast).

[DjinnAndTonic]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3)
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV) - for all that I’d let Brose and Explode bypass any res due to species weakness over-riding, I think T260G is just one shorting.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV) - Elim doing Elim things.
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS)


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF): Cancel shenanigans
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX)
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa) - Finally getting to see that Emilia hype so many years after the topic came out
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8) - Big fan of the shards-of-glass strategy here


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2) - dog vs magical girl - SH2 loses!
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2) - dog vs magical girl - SH2 loses!
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW)
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H)


Light

Fina (SoA) vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC)
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3)
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1) - evade forever Ginny~

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3): Instant Death.
T260G (SaGa) vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV): Chaz can get up to 1.28 mdur, which can just barely take a hit from T2. So is Explode turn 1? Yes if it hits PSY, no if it hits WIL. (Brose ain't turn 1 against anything.) I think there's a case to go either way, so I'll abstain.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs. Rika (PSIV): Abstain here too! Jowy's pretty fast, not Rika fast but at least in a bit of a grey area for turn 1 Elim. It's been years but I think the 80% number is an average between a 50 speed enemy and a 60 speed enemy, and Jowy isn't better than 60 PS4 enemy speed, but I'm not certain. Abstain, but vote Rika if a tiebreak is needed.
Fenrir (VP1) vs. Jenna Angel (DDS): Ha.


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF): Nope, you need speed or evade or counters for Levin.
Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX): I thought this might be a good fight but then I remembered the Eject ban. Yeah that's Auron's only hope of dealing with Lilka evade buffing and stalling, his overdrive doesn't one-shot.
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa): Has the relevant statusblockers. List of slugfests Edgar wins in Heavy against non-fire-users:
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8): Has ITE options, reverse less so.

Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2): See the consensus. I assign a speed penalty for FF7 blockers but that only drops Red to average, and Ana is slightly below.
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2): Stalls until Blanca decides he needs to pee.
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW): Flay can unload some big damage but he needs a bit more time than this.
Tony (WA4) vs. Sylvain (FE3H): Bunch of kids > Tony > Crested warrior, checks out tbh


Light

Heather (FE10) vs. Poshul (CC): Heather always feels very good in the division.
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3): Queen 3HKOs through Renewal, yep, and can tank two Lin counters, a Fire, and an Excalibur (all he gets). Though, does CATNAP tilt things? If Linhardt uses that turn 1 or 2 (not even both, just one is enough), he's only 4HKOed. So he gets three counters, one Fire, and one Excalibur. That's 102% damage. Queen... is 107% mdur. Close!
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1): Agreed that Karn is not bad for Light (really fast, only mediocre rather than outright bad otherwise), but I think Ginny evade is too much. Lots of weak physical hits for her to dodge just gives Ginny too much FP.

[Random Consonant]

Interesting.  Going off of that and the respective stat topics it looks like Jowy's +1.1 SD speed would translate to roughly 60 PS4 AGI which I assume is a 70% hit rate on Elim then, and a roughly (e: whoops) +1.323 SD (for 62 PS4 AGI) would be needed to push Elim below turn 1 to me.  Tir would do it though!

[Magic Fanatic]

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3) - ID

Heavy

Lilka (WA2) vs. Auron (FFX) - Auron does not have the tools to deal with infinite Lilka, and she get buff up to the stratosphere before he gets dangerous.
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa) - Perfect spoiler
Asellus (SaGa) vs. Eirika (FE8) - Perfect spoiler


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) vs. Anastasia (SH2) - I'm only 70% certain on this one rather than 100%, but still.


Light

Virginia Maxwell (WA3) vs. Karn (BoF1) - Karn possible has better outright damage, but much worse damage per turn thanks to Ginny evade.

[074]

Match Results:

Godlike

Rayquaza (PKMN) vs. Killer (SH3) ||||||||
T260G (SaGa) |||| vs. Chaz Ashley (PSIV) |
Jowy Atreides (S2) | vs. Rika (PSIV) |||||
Fenrir (VP1) |||| vs. Jenna Angel (DDS) ||


Heavy

Alicia (VP2) vs. Levin Brenton (WAXF) |||||||
Lilka (WA2) ||||||||| vs. Auron (FFX)
Edgar (FF6) vs. Emelia (SaGa) ||||||||
Asellus (SaGa) |||||||| vs. Eirika (FE8)


Middle

Red XIII (FF7) |||||||||| vs. Anastasia (SH2)
Blanca (SH2) vs. Elena (G2) |||||||||
Flay (MK1) vs. October (CSTW) |||||
Tony (WA4) ||||||| vs. Sylvain (FE3H)


Light

Fina (SoA) ||||| vs. Selphie (FF8)
Heather (FE10) ||||||| vs. Poshul (CC)
Linhardt (FE3H) vs. Queen (S3) |||||||
Virginia Maxwell (WA3) |||||| vs. Karn (BoF1) |


Winners move on to Round 6.  Losers move onto the brackets in Round 5