Author Topic: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)  (Read 109603 times)

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #650 on: June 05, 2016, 04:15:58 PM »
You definitely underrate how good Healing Word and its ilk are in combat, I think? Remember that it doesn't just 1d4+5 (or whatever) damage, it also restores any damage which had been used to overkill the character when they dropped to 0. 5e bous action revival is really powerful and makes the classes with it much better. If nobody is dropping to 0 HP ever, your DM is going easy on you. If people are, then having access to these spells is really great, since you can keep on fighting for a bonus action.

Granted, you can get them via multiclassing 1 level into bard/cleric/druid, but for the analysis above... they really need to be mentioned more I think.

Cleric has a bunch of cool stuff you don't touch on. Spiritual Weapon allows you to unload a bunch of free damage with bonus actions. Life Cleric really does heal notably better than anyone else (even its Cure Wounds beats out Goodberry for a L1, and Prayer of Healing is way ahead of like everything). Some of the channel divinities are quite cool... I'm a big fan of Radiance of Dawn in particular, generally somewhat weaker than Fireball, but an even bigger radius and IFF (granted, you can get IFF Fireballs via some Wizard/Sorc builds). Agreed that they don't gain too much at the highest levels.

I will also say that, in general, if you're trying to figure out the best class, you'd probably be better served to focus on almost any other level besides 20. Like yeah there's no question Druid is pretty OP at 20, but realistically what percent of the campaign do you actually spend there? Obviously this varies by campaign, but I'd imagine it's only rarely more than 10%. Many campaigns won't even hit it. I know that this is an assumption you made for the sake of this exercise, but I can't help but wonder if choosing another arbitrary level would have been more helpful.


EDIT: Also, I see no mention of the fact that Wizard has 20 less HP than any other caster (except wild sorcerer, but who cares about them). I'd honestly kneejerk wizard one of the weakest casters because of this, except that Meteor Swarm is super-dumb at 19-20 (ahead of other damage spells by... a ridiculous amount) and a bunch of other casters lose out a bunch due to not having this. And illusion stuff I guess, though how impressive that is reaaally varies with how much your DM lets you create with it and how much they pack things like Dispel Magic on their enemies.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 04:29:45 PM by Dark Holy Elf »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #651 on: June 07, 2016, 07:34:16 AM »
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You definitely underrate how good Healing Word and its ilk are in combat, I think? Remember that it doesn't just 1d4+5 (or whatever) damage, it also restores any damage which had been used to overkill the character when they dropped to 0. 5e bous action revival is really powerful and makes the classes with it much better.

Ahh....ok, I did not know that 5e doesn't do negative health (didn't come up in the sessions I played).  Well...that helps Bard/Druid/Cleric.  (Bard has this on their core list).  That said, the bonus action part of it isn't that strong unless you have a strong attack or cantrip, since you can't use both a bonus action spell and an action spell.  So like...if you're a warlock, and multiclass a little for healing word, yeah, that's great because you can Eldritch Blast.  By level 20 though, Cleric doesn't really have either an impressive autoattack game, or an impressive cantrip game.  Like...you can deal 22ish damage.  Might be better taking the dodge action >_>

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if you're trying to figure out the best class, you'd probably be better served to focus on almost any other level besides 20.

Oh sure.  But I've played games at lower levels, I've never played games at 20, and haven't seen spells above about 4th level, so it's a more interesting hypothetical for me.

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(except wild sorcerer, but who cares about them).

Wild Sorcerer might actually be better than Dragon Sorcerer at 20.  Like...Wild Magic is on average positive, and breaks various rules (doesn't require concentration).  And you have a ton of control over it by this level (you get to roll twice and pick the result you like.  And if both of them are bad, you can often just counterspell the wild magic).

By comparison, draconic bloodline gains 20 HP, 5 extra damage damage on spells of your chosen element (which is fire), 1 hour of resistance to your chosen element (fire) if you cast a (fire) spell, Dragon Wings, and Draconic Presence, which is a concentration effect that charms/fears in an AoE which is like...similar to level 3 spells (hypnotic pattern/fear).

It's very DM dependent, though.  Like...Tides of Chaos is literally triggered by the DM.  Some DMs just rule that it will always trigger on the next spell, which is hilariously good.  (Gain advantage whenever you want it, and trigger wild magic surges once per round if you feel so inclined).

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Also, I see no mention of the fact that Wizard has 20 less HP than any other caster

I mean...we're talking 20th level Wizard.  Take Spell Mastery on Shield, basically add 5 to your AC.  (Combined with mage armor your AC is now 8 + DEX).  Spell Mastery also gets you a level 2 spell you can cast without spell slots (Misty Step or Mirror Image if you're concerned about durability).

If you really, really are feeling concerned about durability, go for the School of Abjuration.  You get a 45 HP shield that takes damage if you would take HP damage.  The shield taking damage does not count as you taking damage, so you get a free pass on concentration checks.  Oh, and you can heal the shield between combats by spamming abjuration spells through one of the many ways to cast them without spell slots (remember the infinite castings of sheild?)  Oh, and abjurers also get advantage on saving throws against spells, and resistance against the damage of spells.

So...mmm...you can be durable if you feel that's needed.  In particular, if the campaign will involve a lot of enemy spellcasters, Abjurer is good.  (Resistance to their damage, better saving throws, and super turbo charged counterspells.  65% chance to counterspell level 9 spells with a level 3 slot is...LOL).

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I'd honestly kneejerk wizard one of the weakest casters because of this, except that Meteor Swarm is super-dumb at 19-20 (ahead of other damage spells by... a ridiculous amount) and a bunch of other casters lose out a bunch due to not having this.

I mean, Sorcerers also get Meteor Swarm, and Bards can learn it.  I don't know that it's necessarily the be-all-end-all of level 9 spells, because a lot of them are just over-the-top levels of good.  Like...sure Meteor Swarm deals 140 damage on average.  But Prismatic Wall deals 175 damage to enemies who try to pass through it, while simultaneously blinding them, turning them to stone, and warping them to other planes of existence.  Oh, and it's also the only wall spell that doesn't require concentration.  (And allies can pass through it with no ill effect).

There's also Foresight--one ally has advantage on everything, and enemies have disadvantage on everything, for 8 hours -without- concentration.

There's also True Polymorph--turn your party into Ancient Brass Dragons.  Permanently. (cause True Polymorph can make the change permanent).  (Brass Dragons have the shapechange ability, so they can assume humanoid form for roleplaying and close quarters).

There's also Wish...I hear that spell is pretty good.  Even just using it to cast strong 8th level spells that have massive material costs is solid (looking at you, Clone).

For all that Meteor Swarm is a lot better than 1st-8th level blast spells, I'm not sure it necessarily breaks the game more than other 9th level spells.

Regardless, in general the strength of Wizard is the spell list.  Roughly twice the spells of other casters.  Often Wizards just get better spells.  (Like...the 5th level Wall of Force is overall better than the 5th level Wall of Stone).

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Spiritual Weapon allows you to unload a bunch of free damage with bonus actions.

Oh hm, Spiritual Weapon doesn't use concentration.  I guess I assumed it would.  So...out of a level 2 slot, assuming it gets to attack the full 10 turns, you would eventually deal 50 + 10d8.  This damage is spread across 10 turns, granted.  It's actually not too different than Fighters/Monks etc getting an extra attack on bonus action.  If you really wanted damage out of it, you could cast it from an 8th level slot, and deal 5 + 4d8 per turn.  This is...about 23 damage, which is similar to what a Sorcerer can do by quickening their spells, and then using their action on cantrips.  So...solid effect (although, an 8th level slot, and a turn where you aren't casting any non-cantrip spells is not exactly free).

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Life Cleric really does heal notably better than anyone else (even its Cure Wounds beats out Goodberry for a L1, and Prayer of Healing is way ahead of like everything).

Yeah, Life Cleric's level 1 (and level 17--maximize all healing) abilities increase healing by a lot.  And Prayer of Healing is a good spell (10 minute casting time, so out of combat only, of course).  I mean, presumably there's a tipping point somewhere when in-combat healing becomes a good use of spell slots (for actions other than resing) if the healing amount is high enough.  I'm...not really sure how to translate this tipping point into math, however.

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Some of the channel divinities are quite cool... I'm a big fan of Radiance of Dawn in particular, generally somewhat weaker than Fireball, but an even bigger radius and IFF (granted, you can get IFF Fireballs via some Wizard/Sorc builds).

Let's see...it's 30 feet around you, so you need to put yourself out there.  2d10+ cleric level is 31 damage at level 20.  As compared to fireball, which is 8d6 = 28 damage when cast out of a level 3 slot.  So...hmm...yeah, by level 20 that actually scales up to fireball numbers.  (Light Domain also gets fireball as one of its spells).  With 3 channel divinities per short rest, this gives Cleric a bit of a Warlock-esque property of having "spell slots" that come back on a short rest.

Yeah, these are good points.

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #652 on: June 10, 2016, 03:55:59 AM »
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Wild Sorcerer might actually be better than Dragon Sorcerer at 20.  Like...Wild Magic is on average positive, and breaks various rules (doesn't require concentration).  And you have a ton of control over it by this level (you get to roll twice and pick the result you like.  And if both of them are bad, you can often just counterspell the wild magic).

Setting aside how hilariously action- and spellslot-inefficient Counterspelling your own spells are, I don't think this would even work. I agree that this is DM-judgement-call territory like... many things about thie class.

That said yeah post-Level 14 wild magic surges are actually cool, and I agree about Tides of Chaos, but both are DM-dependent. And wild magic is a huge potential liability for 65% of levels, more if you multiclassed a bit.

Meanwhile Draconic gets a big HP push and free Mage Armour (though yes, not so big a deal at 20).

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I mean...we're talking 20th level Wizard.  Take Spell Mastery on Shield, basically add 5 to your AC.  (Combined with mage armor your AC is now 8 + DEX).

Fair enough, that is pretty cool. Shield is pretty great. I don't think it's Healing Word great, but very solid and yeah the free version at 18 is nice.

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I mean, Sorcerers also get Meteor Swarm, and Bards can learn it.  I don't know that it's necessarily the be-all-end-all of level 9 spells...

It's the most overtly powerful, and the spell which I've generally seen the most hype for online. It's also a huge upgrade over the most damaging L8 spell, which is around 50 points for AoE or 96 ST.

And... the other spells you list don't change my point! My point was that Wizard (and Sorcerer and Bard, yes) specifically spike up a lot with that spell, and others like it, if you feel any are as good (True Polymorph, I'll grant, might be. Not so impressed as you are by Foresight/Wish/Prismatic Wall... you realise that Foresight only grants disadvantage for enemies specifically targeting the 1 target, yes?). I don't really think this is an advantage Wizard(/Sorcerer/Bard) enjoys as convincingly at lower levels.

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I mean, presumably there's a tipping point somewhere when in-combat healing becomes a good use of spell slots (for actions other than resing) if the healing amount is high enough.  I'm...not really sure how to translate this tipping point into math, however.

It'd be interesting to see math attempts at this.

One data point... full Lay On Hands is something I've seen used a few times and is generally a worthy action in combat even if not reviving, which is 5*Level (so 100 if you wish). Of course if the competition is L6+ spell slots (e.g. Heal) then I'm less sure what the cutoff is. Mass Heal is honestly excellent and I may be underrating it as a L9, it is "fully heal and revive party" which comes pretty damn close to "win an encounter". (Granted, not the only L9 spell which you can say that of.)

The lower-level stuff is more interesting since the resource is less valuable. And... Life Cleric healing is kinda uber once it's maxed. Mass Cure Wounds is 36 to all allies at a L5 (+9 per spell level), which is potentially terrific, but really depends on both party size and how much the enemies distributed their damage. And for action economy, Mass Healing Word is 14/19/24 MT for L3-5 which seems potentially useful as well. But... I'm not 100% certain how much.

I've never seen a Life Cleric in action but they look extremely powerful to me on paper.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2016, 01:42:37 AM by Dark Holy Elf »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #653 on: June 10, 2016, 09:10:38 AM »
Side note--I was wrong in my reading of Contagion.  The target needs to fail 3 saves before the negative effects kick in.

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(True Polymorph, I'll grant, might be. Not so impressed as you are by Foresight/Wish/Prismatic Wall... you realise that Foresight only grants disadvantage for enemies specifically targeting the 1 target, yes?). I don't really think this is an advantage Wizard(/Sorcerer/Bard) enjoys as convincingly at lower levels.

The big thing about most of these is that they break the concentration economy.  True Polymorph requires concentration for one hour (and then it's permanent until dispelled).  Foresight does not require concentration.

I'll admit it depends a little on the DM, however.  Apparently the official guideline is for the DM to give 8 encounters per day, and 4 short rests.  Meteor Swarm wins one encounter.  Foresight helps you in all 8 encounters.  Stick it on the Rogue, now they don't need to worry about being squishy, always get sneak attack, they can feel comfortable relying on their evasion for spells, they are at almost no risk from traps (very likely to succeed on the skill check, and advantage to the saving throw if they fail).

And you know, Wish is really good.  Like...ignore material components of spells, and the spell always takes 1 action even if it's replicating a spell that normally takes 12 hours to cast.  So...walk up to the super powerful bad guy, and use Wish to duplicate the effects of the spell Simulacrum.  Congrats, you now have a copy of the super powerful badguy who is friendly to you and obeys your commands!

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And... the other spells you list don't change my point! My point was that Wizard (and Sorcerer and Bard, yes) specifically spike up a lot with that spell, and others like it, if you feel any are as good

Well yes.  This is why I was harsh on the level 20 evaluation of casters who don't get this power spike.  (Hence...harsh on Cleric.  Fairly harsh on Warlock because while they have perfectly fine options at 9 they only get to pick one and can never change it.  And...while Land Druid has generally decent spells, still putting them below casters with stronger spell lists like Bard and Wizard.  Land Druid, incidentally, could probably be argued to have a better spell list/spell knowing mechanic than Sorcerer, but I think their lists are close enough that metamagic wins).

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It's the most overtly powerful, and the spell which I've generally seen the most hype for online. It's also a huge upgrade over the most damaging L8 spell, which is around 50 points for AoE or 96 ST.

OK, want to come back to this for a bit.  96 would be...Disintegrate cast out of a level 8 slot right?  Yep, numbers check out.  50 looks like...Cone of Cold out of an 8th level slot?  Right ok good.

The problem is that mages aren't really the source of damage in 5e--or, ok fine, they're solid at AoE damage.

Like...level 20 archer, Fighter 11, Rogue (assassin) 9, Sharpshooter feat, 20 dex, let's say attacking with some kind of bow (longbow or heavy crossbow with crossbow master).  If you get a surprise round, you automatically have advantage, and all your stuff crits (and crit means you get to roll dice twice, this includes superiority dice and sneak attack).  Might as well action surge since we crit this round.  So...6 attacks.  d8 with Longbow.  d8x12 = 54 damage.  5d6 sneak attack, crit increases that to 10d6 = 35 damage.  You can use all 5 superiority dice if you feel like it.  5d10 which increases to 10d10 = 55 damage.  Dex bonus doesn't get doubled, but that's still 6x5 30 damage.  If you feel confident about hitting (you do have advantage) you can take the +10 damage from sharpshooter for another 60.  Potentially 234 damage, or 174 without using sharpshooter.  And now use your bonus action on something cool because you're a Rogue (probably hide so that you can sneak attack next turn).  "Oh, but your damage will drop a lot without action surge and crits and superiority dice" you say?  Eh...next turn, assuming you hid successfully, it's 73 without sharpshooter, 103 with sharpshooter.  And of course, superiority dice and action surge come back on a short rest.

"But that's a min maxing build, and we've been comparing monoclass" you say?  Ok...like...Thief Rogue with basic archery stuff.  35 damage each turn from Sneak Attack.  10 from Dex.  9 or 7 from the crossbow/shortbow.  20 potentially from Sharpshooter if you feel accurate enough (you might not--fighter gets +2 accuracy to bows).  So...55 to 75.  Except Thief rogues just get two full turns at the start of every combat; pretty cool ability they get at level 17.  110-150 on the first turn.  And if we open up multiclassing, they don't lose much by dipping two levels of Fighter for Action Surge and +2 to bow accuracy.

OK, so maybe the problem is Rogues right?  Fighter 20!  Let's stick with bows.  We don't have Rogue now, so there's no use worrying about using the bonus action to hide--might as well use a bonus action for an extra attack, right?  So...9 attacks with a d6 weapon, or 8 attacks with a d10 weapon.  Hmm...decisions.  I think this depends if we are using sharpshooter (makes 9 attacks better than 8) or not (8 is better).  Let's just stick with 8 for now, since I'm sure we can come up with something creative to use a bonus action on.  So...84 damage without using Sharpshooter, or 164 damage with using sharpshooter.  Add in some superiority dice if you feel like it (up to +39 or so).  Oh yeah, and do it all again next turn, because Fighter now gets two action surges per short rest (except those superiority dice; if you burned them all in one round that is).

Anyway, point is, a 96 damage disintegrate is...well this is a level 8 spell, so it's once per day, and the second most powerful spell slot you have.  Maybe it hits more?  Let's see...monster manual, DC20...oh hey, I already have the page open to Ancient Brass Dragon.  Mmm...well right off the bat, legendary resistances, it can just choose to make the save on disintegrate (save for 0 remember).  But it only gets 3 of these per day, so maybe your party burns through them for you.  OK good, your spell save DC is 19, and Dex is literally the worst stat for Ancient Brass Dragon (10 Dex; dex saving throw +6).  60% chance to hit.  By comparison, our various archers are facing AC 20, with +13 to hit.  70% chance to hit, 45% going sharpshooter.  Although all of them have ways of getting advantage, which means 91% chance to hit, or 69.75% chance to hit using sharpshooter.

Actually, the really insulting one is Sorcerer/Warlock multiclass (Warlock 2, Sorcerer 18, for example).  Quicken Eldritch Blast.  Action Eldritch Blast.  84 damage for 2 sorcery points.  If you can set up Hex on an earlier turn, make that 112 damage.  Take that, Disintegrate!  If you're really being silly, dip Fighter too for Action Surge and 168 damage (but don't actually do that, or you won't get level 9 spells).

Not that Disintegrate is bad--it's fine, it adds a tool to the mage toolbox (without requiring a very specific Warlock/Sorcerer multiclass).  But I would argue that single target damage isn't the mage's role.  Even multitarget damage--Cone of Cold out of a level 8 slot hitting four people is 200 total damage (50 to each).  200 is more than the 150 that the average archer was doing, but distributing damage is generally worse than choosing targets after every attack.

So in general, most guides tell you to use magic for stuff other than pure DPS, since mages can do good work in a support role; split up/disable enemies so that they are easily cleaned up by the DPSs of the party, or buff your party.

Meteor Swarm is an exception to "mages aren't the best damage" yes.  140 damage.  To all the things.  At a 1 mile range.  And four different 40 foot radiuses (no overlap).  So...yes, that is obviously good; hit even two targets and you deal 280 in a turn.  Your party's archer is like "welp! can't match that in one round, and my range is a piddly 600 feet."  But it is literally once per day.

Is it better than making one character awesome across multiple turns and combats without concentration (Foresight, for instance)?  Eh, debateable.  Depends how many targets you hit with the AoE.  Depends how many combats there are today.  It's certainly competitive, but I'm not sure there's a clear winner.

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Mass Heal is honestly excellent and I may be underrating it as a L9, it is "fully heal and revive party" which comes pretty damn close to "win an encounter". (Granted, not the only L9 spell which you can say that of.)

Yeah, if it was a level 8 spell I'd call it really good.  Still think it's on the weak side for a level 9 spell, though.

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The lower-level stuff is more interesting since the resource is less valuable. And... Life Cleric healing is kinda uber once it's maxed. Mass Cure Wounds is 36 to all allies at a L5 (+9 per spell level), which is potentially terrific, but really depends on both party size and how much the enemies distributed their damage. And for action economy, Mass Healing Word is 14/19/24 MT for L3-5 which seems potentially useful as well. But... I'm not 100% certain how much.

I've never seen a Life Cleric in action but they look extremely powerful to me on paper.

Yeah, these don't sound bad.  (For comparison, Fireball on your party as a level 3 spell from an enemy would be 28, 14 if you save.  Mass Healing Word comes close to countering it.  For a level 5 spell, Cone of Cold is 36, save for 18.  Mass Cure Wounds does fully counter that, with some healing to spare.  Orrrrr you can just use your Channel Divinity (3x per short rest) to restore 100 HP...but which can't restore targets to more than half their maximum.  So...similar to Lay on Hands, except instead of 100 per day, it's 300 per short rest, but can't heal targets above half HP, but can be split among multiple targets at 30 ft range.

Honestly, your healing spells are good, but by level 20 you'll probably be using your Channel Divinity in combat for your ressing purposes since you get 3/short rest, and saving your spell slots for...something?  Prayer of Healing between combat to heal 25 AoE from a level 2 slot.

Life Cleric is interesting too, as I've certainly heard it argued that the best healer isn't someone who sticks with Life Cleric, but who takes Life Cleric 1 and then multiclasses into Bard or Paladin for Aura of Vitality (120 healing from a level 3 spell).  If you want to get really silly, then you mix in Sorcerer for metamagic (240 healing from a level 3 spell by using Extend Spell) but you do give up level 9 spells known to swing that.

But all of that has already been discussed at length:

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?479038-Max-number-of-healed-HP-per-long-rest&p=20445633&viewfull=1#post20445633

Including the very silly Life Cleric 1, Lore Bard 6, Sorcerer 3, Warlock 5 to get Aura of Vitaltiy castings every short rest.

That said, there's definitely an argument for straight Life Cleric, especially post 17, as they do more burst healing.  Sure, the ridiculous hybrid of four classes can heal 480 per short rest (possibly burning some level 1/2 spell slots for sorcery points), but Life Cleric's Channel Divinity is 300 per short rest, and you can burst 100 of it in a single round of combat (granted, can't heal people above half health, so you still need to use spells outside of combat to get people to full).

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #654 on: June 11, 2016, 03:26:25 AM »
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Side note--I was wrong in my reading of Contagion.  The target needs to fail 3 saves before the negative effects kick in.

Doesn't look like it. Certainly neither my Cleric player nor I myself read the spell that way. Let's check again...

"Make a melee spell attack against a creature within your reach. On a hit, you inflict the creature with a disease of your choice from any of the ones described below." (The list below includes Slimy Doom.)

Failing three saves simply extends the effects of the disease to 7 days. Whereas succeeding on three saves... well. "After succeeding on three of these saving throws, the creature recovers from the disease"

That leaves it pretty inarguable, at least as written. A DM can make the call to nerf it (and I've read discussions online debating how best to do that, though I choose not to beyond encounter design), although I'd certainly say that the spell having no effect until 3 failed saves would be going waaay too far for a L5, at that point it pretty much becomes "non-combat spell, make someone sick for a week". Contagion's a very strong spell, though you're at the mercy of disease immunity/resistance with it, so you'd better have other tricks, as any DM will respond to repeated use of a powerful toy like that with increasing incidences of monsters who spoil it, particularly arc bosses and the like. (For instance, my PCs just hit Level 11, a big milestone. One boss had legendary actions and a Potion of Vitality, the other just had Shield/Counterspell/Dispel Magic. Neither was completely immune to this tactic, but they were resistant enough, and my player guessed they would be and opted to use the L5 slots for other things.)

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I'll admit it depends a little on the DM, however.  Apparently the official guideline is for the DM to give 8 encounters per day, and 4 short rests.  Meteor Swarm wins one encounter.  Foresight helps you in all 8 encounters.

That's true. I will admit I don't intuitively think this way because 8-fight days strike me as insane. I like my campaigns to have a reasonable story component and it's pretty difficult to have 8 fights in a day (really? The enemies didn't try to team up at all?) AND not give the PCs the ability/desire to long-rest somewhere in the middle without this whole setup feeling very contrived. One-fight days are more common than eight-fight days (though of course, the DM should keep the PCs guessing as to whether this will actually be a one-fight day), and I'd probably take something like 4 as closer to the norm in order to achieve a desirable level of balance while still being grounded in reality. But this will vary campaign to campaign, as well as day to day within that campgaign, for sure.

And I guess Foresight gets better with 8 fights, but I dunno, I'm still not that impressed. Like... outside of Sneak Attack, advantage and disadvantage are +25% to the roll going your way at best, and probably less for accuracy against all but the most exceptionally evasive monsters. That's... nice, but not a be-all and end-all, and ignores that there are other ways to get advantage. Like the competition here includes Mass Heal. There's no way that an extra 25% of misses throughout a day on one character (and you just made sure the enemies would rather target other people...) and their own boosted accuracy will come anywhere near saving 500-700 HP. And of course, Foresight can be dispelled...

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Like...ignore material components of spells, and the spell always takes 1 action even if it's replicating a spell that normally takes 12 hours to cast

Mm, I'm not sure I agree with the reading that allows you to bypass casting time, as that's a very important thing to not be explicitly mentioned. (But 5e PHB isn't always that well-written...) That said, yeah, if allowed this Simulacrum type thing is certainly good. Though, better watch out, because Simulacrum is again rather easily dispelled for a L9 (compare Prismatic Wall), especially if the DM rules that it still counts as a Level 7 spell for dispelling purposes.

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The problem is that mages aren't really the source of damage in 5e--or, ok fine, they're solid at AoE damage.

I'm well aware, yes. Although speaking from my experience with encounter design, I'll say that AoE has a major potential to break enconters, moreso than any ST damage I've seen really does, at least at Levels 3-10. Meteor Swarm aside, AoE damage does slowly fall off thereafter, because Fireball is so good for a L3.

But yes for ST damage, obviously spellcasters are worse than fighters usually. That's... kind of what fighters have, along with bulkier HP figures (and not even that in the case of Monk/Rogue). Obviously spellcasters can do more stuff. (Failing to take this into account is part of why 3e balance was so bad.)

It should probably also be mentioned that, while we've been ignoring magic items so far, that magic items can buff fighter damage/accuracy while mages can pretty much only buff their "attack" accuracy (except Warlock who gets buffed spell DCs as well, and they don't get damage).

Anyway Meteor Swarm being able to do the kind of damage that fighters need to expend lots of resources to get (and... other than Rogue/Fighter/Paladin, can the others even hit that much? Will be interesting when you get to them) to potentially every enemy in the fight AND do half damage on a miss is pretty great.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #655 on: June 11, 2016, 06:32:17 AM »
Doesn't look like it. Certainly neither my Cleric player nor I myself read the spell that way. Let's check again...

"Make a melee spell attack against a creature within your reach. On a hit, you inflict the creature with a disease of your choice from any of the ones described below." (The list below includes Slimy Doom.)

Failing three saves simply extends the effects of the disease to 7 days. Whereas succeeding on three saves... well. "After succeeding on three of these saving throws, the creature recovers from the disease"

That leaves it pretty inarguable, at least as written. A DM can make the call to nerf it (and I've read discussions online debating how best to do that, though I choose not to beyond encounter design), although I'd certainly say that the spell having no effect until 3 failed saves would be going waaay too far for a L5, at that point it pretty much becomes "non-combat spell, make someone sick for a week". Contagion's a very strong spell, though you're at the mercy of disease immunity/resistance with it, so you'd better have other tricks, as any DM will respond to repeated use of a powerful toy like that with increasing incidences of monsters who spoil it, particularly arc bosses and the like. (For instance, my PCs just hit Level 11, a big milestone. One boss had legendary actions and a Potion of Vitality, the other just had Shield/Counterspell/Dispel Magic. Neither was completely immune to this tactic, but they were resistant enough, and my player guessed they would be and opted to use the L5 slots for other things.)

Yeah, that's certainly the way I read it too.  That said, from the designers:

http://www.sageadvice.eu/2014/10/06/contagion/

And...well, just compare it to other level 5 status spells and it is massively better.

Hold Monster is also level 5 lasts 1 minute, is concentration, requires a save (wisdom) to land, gives the target a save (wisdom) every turn to completely end the status.

Contagion requires a melee touch attack, so that's a definite downside.  But other than that....  Contagion does not require concentration, and (under the initial reading that you me and your cleric made) is guaranteed to disease the target for at least 3 turns -regardless- of save.  The Slimy Doom disease also stuns the target (Hold Monster does paralyze, which yes is better than stun, because it also boosts damage, but other than that the status effects are identical).  Oh, and it gives the target disadvantage on con saving throws (which are the saving throws needed to end the status).  And it lasts for 7 days -without- concentration if the target fails more saving throws than it passes after 6 turns.

Or compare to the 6th level Otto's Irresistable Dance.  Also concentration, also lasts only 1 minute, doesn't even stop the enemy from acting like Hold Monster does.  What makes it a 6th level spell is that there's no initial saving throw.  The enemy can use their action to make a saving throw to end the condition (wasting most of their turn).  And spending a level 6 spell to make a legendary monster waste their action guaranteed?  Generally considered a good trade.  (But not as good as guaranteed stopping 3 turns).

I'm not even sure there's 8th level spells with status effects as good as that.  Like...Maze is a great spell, but it's still a concentration spell, lasts a similar amount of rounds...probably a few more on average, and doesn't allow the trapped target to take damage.  Then again, Maze is 60 foot range, no save, no touch attack, just works every time.  OK, Maze has a decent argument to be better.  (But there's already a decent argument that Maze is the best 8th level spell in the game so...).

Touch attack is a little restrictive, sure, but there's ways around that.  (Find Familiar lets you cast touch attacks from a familiar using your spellcasting stats while being 100ft away.  A Sorcerer multiclass lets you deliver touch attacks from 30 feet via metamagic).

I can definitely see the argument that our initial reading was not the intent of the designers. 

(Obviously if your group is enjoying the spell, and you're managing to design around it, thumbs up, do what works for you).

(Splitting contagion stuff into a separate post--ultimately I don't think it matters that much for class balance if you design encounters with it in mind).
« Last Edit: June 11, 2016, 06:35:16 AM by metroid composite »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #656 on: June 11, 2016, 09:18:01 AM »
Quote
That's true. I will admit I don't intuitively think this way because 8-fight days strike me as insane. I like my campaigns to have a reasonable story component and it's pretty difficult to have 8 fights in a day (really? The enemies didn't try to team up at all?) AND not give the PCs the ability/desire to long-rest somewhere in the middle without this whole setup feeling very contrived. One-fight days are more common than eight-fight days (though of course, the DM should keep the PCs guessing as to whether this will actually be a one-fight day), and I'd probably take something like 4 as closer to the norm in order to achieve a desirable level of balance while still being grounded in reality. But this will vary campaign to campaign, as well as day to day within that campgaign, for sure.

Mmm...well, that depends.  if you're just going through a dungeon, and there's like...trap-esque stuff throughout the dungeon (chests that are mimics), it can make storyline sense for there to be a bunch of encounters.

In my pathfinder game (which is around 10th level) there was a sequence where we needed to shrink the party and sneak down mining chimneys, get the entire party past the orc miners into the passageway that led to the underdark (not much combat, but still used a bunch of spells).  Use a couple castings of fly and Spider Climb to scout out the underdark on our first entrance, and also avoid stepping in the lake which sounded theoretically bad, fought some drow (technically the first encounter), convinced the orcs they enslaved that we were on their side.  Killed some Drow who were asking why orcs were moving without drow supervision.  Got to the desired target, started fighting, but the enemy was very well prepared (every one of them had protection from arrows as a potion).  Also, it was like...2 priestesses of Lolth, 8 wizards, and a young dragon, against a party of 5 who was running low on spells at this point.  We still need to secure this location for our friends who are teleporting into this temple, but we back off to the drow camp a little ways back, because we heard they had a powerful prisoner.  Freed the prisoner, and the DM was nice to us and just made it so that she had an item that gave us an instant 8 hour rest, giving us a chance of making it in time for our rescue mission in ~30 minutes.

So like...technically before the long rest, there were only two major combats where we killed all the enemies (once with the first beach we landed on, and once when we were freeing the powerful prisoner).  But there were actually technically five combats (we killed a few orcs while we made our mad dash to the underdark.  We killed a drow who questioned the group of orcs we convinced to rebel.  We started fighting at the ambush site, and NOPE'd out once we realized how fucked we were...but we still killed one Drow).  And then a bunch of cases where espionage and exploration ate up spell slots (fly, see invisibility, shrinking the party to squeeze down mining chimneys).

Still a strain on the party, though.  On the other hand, this is pathfinder, which doesn't have short rests.

I will say that storyline-wise short rests have a lot of the same problems as long rests, which is to say, if you're running from people who are tracking you, or you are racing after an enemy...stopping for an hour sounds bad, and stopping for 8 hours also sounds bad.

Quote
(and... other than Rogue/Fighter/Paladin, can the others even hit that much? Will be interesting when you get to them)

Ranger...I mean, they have the Swift Quiver spell.  "You can use your bonus action to make TWO attacks with your bow" (bonus action to cast this, so you don't get it right away, and concentration to maintain, so no stacking it with hunter's mark or anything).

They also have solid AoE.  Like...spells, yes, they have those too; conjure volley is...Cone of Cold in a different shape (40 foot radius cylinder).  But Hunter also gets Volley at level 11 (attack everything in a 10 foot radius).  At level 3 hunter gets Horde Breaker (if enemies stand within 5 feet of each other, you just get an extra attack).

And then there's beastmaster who...has things and stuff and things.  When you cast a buff spell on yourself, you cast it on your animal companion too for free.  So...your best buff spell is Swift Quiver...umm...can any of the animals use a bow and arrow? >_>  Actually I guess it wouldn't even be that great if they could, because you still would need to use your action to command them to attack....  (I mean, they're probably still ok.  They can still use Swift Quiver and get four attacks per round...or three attacks and a multiattack from their beast friend).

So...I think they're alright on DPR, but they lean on spell slots and concentration to keep up with fighter damage (or bunched up enemies that can be hit with AoE, but that's probably not the best example if we're trying to argue for Rangers over spell damage).

But by level 20, if they have the spells ready, I think they do alright in a comparison to fighters (for archery).  They just...take a long time to get there.  Getting dex to 20 is two ASIs.  Two bow related feats is another couple ASIs.  This is level 16 for Ranger, or level 10 for Fighter.  The Swift Quiver spell is level 5...which means they don't get it till 17.  And they need 19 if they want two level 5 spell slots.

I mean...Rangers bring a lot to out of combat exploration, so something had to give, obviously.


Monks....

Monks reach their max damage at about level 5.  (OK, so that's a slight exaggeration.  They still need one more ASI boosting dex, and eventually their weapons become d10s.  At level 5 they only deal 32 damage.  By level 17 this becomes 42 damage!!!)  But for real though, Monks as they level mostly become tanky (proficiency in all saving throws, resistant to all non-force damage, evasion, invisibility).  Also status, they gain more status effects (stun, instant death in the case of Quivering Palm, knocking people prone).

It's not even like there's many feats you can take that change anything--Monks already use their bonus action.  Opportunity attacks for d10+5?  Yeah, you can get 'em but 10 average damage doesn't sound worth setting up.  Magic Initiate for Hex?  Sure, add 14 split across 4 attacks, it's not bad, although again you want your bonus action.  First turn being 28 instead of 42, and then later turns being 56.  Tied on turn 2, becomes better on turn 3.



Barbarian...

I mean, you get damage resistance to all the damages (assuming you go bear totem).  You get probably 250 HP.  These combine for a whole lot of tank; we expect to get a little less damage for all these reasons.

So...what's the damage?  Great Weapon Master, Polearm Master means you always get to use your bonus action on an attack, so that helps.  Your strength is 24 (+7 modifier).  Being in a rage (which you'll always be at this level) lets you add 4 to that.  So...+11 on each attack so far.  Great Weapon Master can increase this to +21.  Hitting with GWM shouldn't be too hard, with your +7 from 24 strength, and Reckless attacks giving you advantage whenever you want.  Your weapon dice are d10, d10, and d4, so 13.5.  21x3 + 13.5 = 76.5.  Less on the first turn, as you need to use your bonus action to rage.  But Polearm Master also gives you a few more attacks of opportunity than normal (so sometimes it's more like 100 damage).  Oh, and 3x brutal critical is a thing I guess.  Adds like...4 damage per turn on average?

But mostly...their damage isn't as front-loaded, but they're fine--still outputting ehh...a little below disintegrate damage on average, but not that much below.  And sure, it's only melee which isn't ideal.  But they have 250 HP with damage resistance to everything (effectively like 500 HP) so whatever, they come out just fine when compared to other fighters at this level.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #657 on: June 11, 2016, 04:24:00 PM »
Oh, I agree that Contagion feels a bit too strong as is. That said it's pretty unambiguously the way the spell is worded, and some people are sticklers for RAW (I'm not one). On the other hand, I do think the change Mearls proposes makes the spell junk for L5, and note that he's rather non-committal there ("I'd rule that..." not "this is how it works"; also, this change is not on the official list of errata despite the list being more recent than the tweet). If the spell needs a touch attack AND a majority of saves over 3-5 rounds to do anything, it's completely useless in combat and pretty close outside it. Non-combat disease infliction for a L5? Really? Lesser Restoration will remove it and it's a L2! If you're Level 9+, any Important NPC you might conceivably want to hit with this (assuming you could even do it in a way that doesn't trigger combat, meaning you'd be better off just having striking her with a sword) is gonna be able to talk to a a healer who knows Lesser Restoration. Or just use a potion/spell.

Quote
I will say that storyline-wise short rests have a lot of the same problems as long rests, which is to say, if you're running from people who are tracking you, or you are racing after an enemy...stopping for an hour sounds bad, and stopping for 8 hours also sounds bad.

I agree.

I rather liked 4e's definition of short rests where they're 5 minutes. Unlike an hour, you can usually sneak in a 5 minute break between encounters, unless the DM literally has something breathing down your neck that very moment (in which case, that's by design). It feels even more superheroic that you can heal up in that time, but whatever, D&D is already extremely divorced from reality, and it created a system with less "oh man we should rest even though it makes no sense narratively" which plagues other editions, while still being able to have days which grind you out of resources if that's a thing you enjoy.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2016, 04:27:29 PM by Dark Holy Elf »

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metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #658 on: June 12, 2016, 03:10:52 AM »
Alright, so I think for my next trick, I'm going to take Elfboy's advice and run calculations for a lower level, and account a little bit for magic items.

My thoughts are: 6th level.  The PHB calls out 5th level as a big power spike for the party.  But 6th level is usually some big class defining ability, like...extra ASI for fighter, or Bard picking non-Bard spells for the first time, or Paladin getting their aura of awesomeness.

For magic items: looking at the loot table, most of your gear at this level is going to be from Table F in the DMG.  Basically all the equipment with the "uncommon" rarity.  I'll ignore gear that does fancy shit, and stick with the +1s, so...Weapon +1, Shield +1, Rod of the Pact Keeper +1, Wand of the War Mage +1.

Note that there's no magic armor at uncommon rarity.  Also: Full Plate and Half Plate cost more than an uncommon item (which is listed as 100gp - 500gp)--half/full cost 750 and 1500 gp, so I'll be not including either of those.

Quote
If the spell needs a touch attack AND a majority of saves over 3-5 rounds to do anything, it's completely useless in combat and pretty close outside it.

I mean, it's not the only spell that works kind-of like that.  Flesh to Stone is a level 6 spell, has a saving throw to start things off, and then the target gets the same "best of 5 saving throws".  If it fails 3 more saving throws, it becomes petrified.  (Also, this requires concentration, unlike Contagion).  The one big advantage is that it does restrain the target while they're in the second phase of rolling.

Some spells just aren't that great, though, and Flesh to Stone is one of them.

Quote
Lesser Restoration will remove it and it's a L2! If you're Level 9+, any Important NPC you might conceivably want to hit with this (assuming you could even do it in a way that doesn't trigger combat, meaning you'd be better off just having striking her with a sword) is gonna be able to talk to a a healer who knows Lesser Restoration. Or just use a potion/spell.

I mean...eventually they'd travel to a town to get it healed.  My idea for using the nerfed version would be to have a spider Familiar, have the spider deliver the Contagion, wait 3-5 turns, see if it takes, and then the moment the big bad screams "My skin! What's wrong with my..." ambush the camp before a cleric can examine her and identify the disease.

It's one of these "only if you have your opponents ambushed" spells.  But it's also not a concentration spell, so I actually think it still has use.

(Like...moreso than Flesh to Stone.  Breaking the concentration economy is a pretty big deal).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #659 on: June 12, 2016, 05:54:16 AM »
I'm pretty sure 100 gp uncommon items would have to refer to consumables only. The section on crafting magical items notes that it costs 500 gp and 20 days to craft an uncommon-tier one... so the market price should be a bit higher than 500 if anything. And the DMG kinda encourages you to make magic items a bit harder to come by than just "you walk into a store and there they are", with plenty of leeway for the magic level of the campgain. Some DMs swear by not using them period, or at least not the stat-boosting ones.

By contrast, it's expected that you allow all the standard PHB armour. So what I'm saying is... while I'm fine with putting half/full plate on the same "tier" as the uncommon magic items (in terms of how many each PC can afford), I don't think they should be treated as more rare, since I don't think you'll find many campaigns where that is the case.


Flesh to Stone is permanent and can only be undone by Greater Restoration. It's also something a villain (or PC!) can do to put her enemies proudly on display, a spell which is more "cool" than it is practical. I agree that it's a bad spell for most purposes. So I'm not a fan of taking a spell which is by-the-book strong and lowering it to that level (or even slightly better, for all that I'm not impressed by your proposed use for it, sorry~).
« Last Edit: June 12, 2016, 05:56:58 AM by Dark Holy Elf »

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metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #660 on: June 12, 2016, 06:23:01 AM »
Quote
By contrast, it's expected that you allow all the standard PHB armour. So what I'm saying is... while I'm fine with putting half/full plate on the same "tier" as the uncommon magic items (in terms of how many each PC can afford), I don't think they should be treated as more rare, since I don't think you'll find many campaigns where that is the case.

Well fair enough, yeah.  I think it's to be expected that most PCs will find some kind of magic weapon eventually, just to get around damage resistances.  Mages don't need their +1 to hit weapon, but I'm handing it out so that they get something too.  And Shields...apparently +1 shields are more common than +1 armor, and I suspect shields could use a little bit of incentive (since none of the big damage feats work with a shield--with some debate about hand crossbows, but the official errata seems to be you need your second hand to reload).  Granted, this is just counting monoclassing.  Mages that dip one level for shields, and don't plan on using a weapon...may find their GM less generous with +1 shields.....


Oh, yeah, one last assumption for these level 6 characters: Vanilla human, cause it involves less thinking!  Also, a cap on min maxing--at most 16/16/14 for starting stats. (which probably means most characters will be 16/16/14/12/10/9.  Maybe some want 16/14/14/13/12/10).

We're going to need something to compare this to

CR6 creatures...

Mammoth (13 AC, 126 HP, 25 damage at +10 to hit)

Medusa (15 AC, 127 HP, 14 damage at +5 to hit...though it's mostly about the petrify)

Invisible Stalker (14 AC, 104 HP, 20 damage at +6 to hit; also invisible)

Hobgoblin Warlord (20 AC, 97 HP, 19 damage at +9 to hit; also a big pile of leadership stuff)

Githzerai Zerth (17 AC, 84 HP, 22 damage at +7 to hit)

Galeb Duhr (16 AC, 85 HP, 12 damage at +8 to hit, special ability to summon two more of itself)

Drider (19 AC, 123 HP, 24 damage at +6 to hit)

Young Brass Dragon (17 AC, 110 HP, 37 damage at +7 to hit.  Also fire breath for 42 AoE)
(and some other young dragons that are similar)

Vrock (15 AC, 104 HP, 24 damage at +6 to hit)

Chasme (15 AC, 84 HP, 40 damage at +5 to hit)

Cyclops (14 AC, 138 HP, 38 damage at +9 to hit)

Chimera (14 AC, 114 HP, 32 damage at +7 to hit, sometimes 52 dmg with fire breath)


So...the median monster is

15 AC, 107 HP, 25 damage, +7 to hit.

We will roll with this for calculation purposes.  (Obviously one CR6 monster should handle multiple party members).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #661 on: June 12, 2016, 07:14:59 AM »
Starting off with Barbarian.  16/16/14/what's a mental stat?

The big decision is the ASI, and whether you use Reckless Attacks, and whether to use shields.

Baseline without the ASI

+7 to hit.  (65% chance to hit 15 AC).  Reckless attacks can make this 88% chance to hit 15 AC.

17 AC with medium armor.  +7 to hit has a 55% chance of hitting that.  Reckless Attacks increases that to 80%.

20 AC with a shield.  40% chance of hitting that.  64% chance of being hit with Reckless Attacks.

In general...Reckless Attacks will probably be worth-it.  35% increase to damage, vs 45% or 60% decrease in durability.  But you're the tankiest person in the party.  If the enemy is attacking you, the party is probably winning the encounter.

As for whether the shield is worth it, well if we are going reckless attacks it's a 25% durability boost.

Your damage per attack is +3+2+dice.  2d6 for a greatsword, d8 for a 1 handed weapon.  12 vs 9.5 per hit...a 26% increase.  So far the shield doesn't look worth-it.

Alright, so great weapon master...takes us from 24 to 44, for how much decrease in accuracy?  We drop to 40% accuracy; reckless attacks increases that to 64% accuracy.  Overall a 33% increase (equivalent of 32 damage).

Polearm Master gives us more attacks with worse dice and no way to +10 that shit.  10.5+10.5+7.5 = 28.5

OK, so great weapon master.  Average damage per turn (after accounting for accuracy) is about 28.5.

Get hit 80% of the time for 25 damage (which Bear totem cuts in half), so you take an average of 10 damage per turn.

Barbarian HP: 65

So...Barbarian kills this monster in 4 turns on average.  Monster kills Barbarian in 6-7 turns on average.  BARBARIAN WINS!

(Wat?  Single level 6 PC solos CR6 monster.  Kay.  Granted, several of the monsters had status n shit to worry about.  Also, only 4 rages per day).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #662 on: June 12, 2016, 08:03:45 AM »
Bard

So...support characters will be weird when doing a pure numeric comparison.  You probably want to use your ASI on Charisma.  Charisma will not factor into durability or damage, and only factor a little bit into healing.  Or you start with an odd numbered con score, and take Resilient for the concentration.  You certainly could go like...Sharpshooter into Valor Bard.  And you'd be only moderately worse than other archers.  We're min maxing, here, though, so what can we max?  Healing obviously, which means Lore bard.

You pick up Aura of Vitality on level 3.  70 healing, usable from bonus actions spread over 10 turns.  It's good.  You also have Song of Rest, which is 3.5 free healing to those who need it whenever they use hit dice in a short rest.  You could grab Prayer of Healing for out of combat 13 HP AoE healing.  If two party members are damaged enough, it's like 26 healing.  Hmm...maybe not worth the magical secrets slot, TBH--might be better to grab another combat spell, like Fireball or Counterspell.

Either way, three Aura of Vitality is 210 healing throughout the day.  Maybe another 21 free healing from Song of Rest during short rests.  And potentially dump your level 1 and 2 slots on Cure Wounds for another 34+39.  So...total healing if you burn every spell slot on it 304.

Your best damage without spells is probably shooting an arrow.  7.5 damage.  I guess 8.5 with a magic bow.  If magic, +7 to hit, but using bows without Sharpshooter means partial cover whenever you fire at someone in melee range, so more like +6 to hit (60% chance to hit AC 15).  5 average damage per round.  Or you can Viscious Mockery cantrip for 5 damage and some status (Can be negated with a wisdom saving throw).

Durability...if you did 16/16/14 with 16 DEX, 14 Con...you have 15 AC (65% chance to hit you), 45 HP.  Takes about 3 turns on average for the monster to kill that.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #663 on: June 12, 2016, 08:10:07 AM »
One thing to keep in mind is that CR6 is... in a weird space for a Level 6 party. In fact you may not see too many CR6's at that point, as they're too a bit too weak to be solos but would be too strong with almost any reasonable support. They're workable if we're doing the Palpatine + 2 sith mooks which Mace Windu OHKOs, or if you want a battle which is either very easy (no support) or "you screwed up and you should either retreat or surrender, foolish PCs" (with actual support).

So as a pure data point I'll just list what my party fought during Level 6. Some DM talk here, I usually try to create encounters which fall in the "hard" range in the DMG (sometimes getting into "Very Hard" because I have 5-6 PCs instead of 4, before any multiplier changes for having 6 PCs). This is because I usually have no more than 4 per day, 8 such encounters would certainly be unreasonable.

Here is a full list of encounters my party fought at Level 6:
1x CR 2, 2x CR 1, 3x CR 1/2 (this was only 3 PCs, every other fight in this sequence is 5 except where noted)
1x CR 5, 1x CR 3
1x CR 3, 2x CR 1, 5x CR 1/2
1x CR 4, 5x CR 1/2
2x CR 3, 6x CR 1/2
A sequence where the PCs chased a CR ~5 NPC
1x CR 3, 3x CR 1, 4x CR 1/2 (the PCs stealthed around this one but I include it as another data point)
A series where each PC had to fight a duel against a CR ~3 custom enemy

(fun fact: CR X enemies tend to be similar in power to Level X+3 PCs roughly, though this breaks down at higher levels or with certain PC abilities which would make for dramatically stronger enemies (e.g. a CR 2 enemy should not have Fireball). Once I realised this, one change I made to the MM was to give monsters proficiency bonuses as if their level were CR+3, which helps 75% of them with their accuracy. Which IMO is a good change, especially if you do allow +1 shields)

Some food for thought anyway, which will mostly matter when you start trying to break down how good AoE damage is I suppose. Optimally you'd want to get multiple DMs to have inputs here.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #664 on: June 12, 2016, 08:14:23 AM »
A sequence where the PCs chased a CR ~5 NPC

and she got away >_<
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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #665 on: June 12, 2016, 08:25:16 AM »
Barbarian notes:
Y'know I normally dismiss Great Weapon Master, because lol 40% have fun being unreliable, but it's actually pretty solid with advantage to make up for it and yeah Reckless Attack is cool. It does leave you extremely vulnerable to non-physical AC attacks... though yes, Bear Totem deals with that weakness! The reason I kinda assume otherwise is the Wolf effect at that level is good, though harder to quantify as it does depend on party somewhat. Of course, if Wolf is indeed the better choice, well, you've already proven shown its baseline with Bear, so more power to it. Psychic damage is extremely rare.

Bard:
While it's probably not as good overall, should mention that Valour Bard has 17*0.65 = 11 damage with a Rapier and 17? 18? AC with a shield. (Not sure exactly what equipment you ended up allowing, or rather how many.) Losing Fireball/Aura of Vitality kinda sucks but reasonable spammable damage + Shatter (13.5-18 AoE) and Hypnotic Pattern along with the revival healing is a pretty nice all-around package? Uberhealing Bard is probably more optimised, though. It'll be interesting to see how other healing figures compare.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #666 on: June 12, 2016, 08:38:54 AM »
I can't speak for 5e encounter design, but in 3.5 you wouldn't really be making encounters with CR = to the character level all that often.  Your goal is to follow some arcane formula that will eventually have a final CR equal to the party level, which would then supposedly eat up roughly 1/4 of the party's daily resources.  4e, on the other hand, the monsters were statted out such that their level is the level they are intended to be fought at at equal numbers to the party.


As for the debate on Contagion.  I'm not sure what level I would take it at if its effects kicked in after three turns.  But frankly, given how quickly enemies drop in combat, the idea of someone lasting long enough to fail three saves is laughable.  As for the player not using it because they correctly foresaw it would be resisted....  uh, yes.  Very clever player.  They totally knew that would be the case and didn't forget they had it and blow all their Lv.5s on other stuff on the way there anyways.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #667 on: June 12, 2016, 08:45:53 AM »
I'm glad that player feels he blew his L5s.

Because from my point of view it was "okay I will make her demon servants immune some elements so they won't be mowed down by fireball/shatter ho ho ho I'm so clever but I should probably also give them a weakness to compensate hmmmm yeah radiant would make the most flavour sense and I'm fine with Moonbeam getting a push and OH DEAR GOD NO I DIDN'T KNOW HRODATH HAD THAT".

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metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #668 on: June 12, 2016, 11:50:36 PM »
Mostly finished this post last night, but got slightly distracted by current events in Florida.  (Also Cleric has a lot of subclasses).

Cleric.

So lets jump right to Life Cleric, as it's the healing numbers cleric, and we just did healing numbers Bard.

Right off the bat, their short rest game is really good.  They (as of 6th level) get two Channel Divninitys per short rest.  Each Channel restores 30 HP, so 60 HP restored per short rest.  (This restoration only works on creatures below half HP, though, and since you probably want to restore to full between fights, you're still burning spells).

So...how do we process this Channel Divinity?  Maybe just say that you only need half as much healing from spells and other effects, since you start from half health and not 0.

Can we get to 150 from spells?  17 healing Prayer of Healings help.  If these heal two people, that's 34.  Times three is 102.  You can cast this out of a third level slot for 22.5 per damaged target (again 3 slots, and if we heal 2 targets it's 135).  But yeah, we should be able to make it to 150.  Life Cleric still wins at level 6.


Non-life Clerics put up lower numbers, of course.  Dumping all 2/3 slots into Prayer of Healing they can do 13 with their level 2 slots (hit two people each time and it's 78 healing).  They can do 17.5 with their level 3 slots (hit two each time and it's 105 healing).  They also can't use their Channel Divinity to in-combat heal someone back to consciousness, and the in-combat not prayer of healing spells heal for a whole lot less.  So...I would eyeball 150 healing maybe?  If they use all/most of their spell slots on it?


Durability wise Clerics should be solid.  This is a case where you might actually take 15 starting strength just to wear heavy armour.  So...16/15/14 for Wis/Str/Con look like OK stats.  Building dex is also fine, and probably what you want to do with the ones that don't get heavy armour.  And of course you can use a shield (and your attacks are pretty bad so you might as well).  With this plan you'll have 45 HP, like the bard.

21 AC gets hit 35% of the time by a +7 to hit.  In general lives through about 5 turns.

You could take Heavy Armor Master to make that 10 turns against some enemies.  But presumably you want to raise your Wisdom first.

In terms of your sustain damage...Melee attacks are like 2+1d8 = 6.5 damage.  I guess 7.5 with a magic weapon.  Cantrips are 2d8 damage (9 damage).  Not counting hit chance, for either of these, though.  Probably about +6 to hit if 14 strength and magic weapon (60% hit chance).  4.5 average damage per turn.  Add this to Spiritiual Weapon damage of 4+1d8 = 8.5 (5.5 average damage).  10 damage on average!  Obviously some of the domains offer big damage spells.  Fireball from the Light domain (28 AoE damage, save for half).

Light domain has extra durability with Warding Flare making your AC effectively higher Wis times per round.  The Channel Divinity at this level is 2d10+6 = 16 damage.  So...a (slightly more than half) damage fireball twice per short rest.

Tempest Domain seems built to use Call Lightning, which deals 3d10 to a 5 foot radius area, every turn until they break concentration.  (Average 16.5 damage).  They can combo this with channel divinity for 30 damage a few times.  Of course, nothing stopping them from having Spiritual Weapon on for an extra 5.5 per turn.

War domain...well I mean...I guess you could take something like Great Weapon Master, start with 16 strength, use two Channel Divinities with the +10 and the bonus action attack, this gives you a 90% chance to hit.  Each hit deals 3+1+2d6+10 = 21 damage.  For one turn you average 37.8 damage...and then you need to finish a short rest or you deal about 13.  You also take Great Weapon Master instead of +2 Wis in order to pull this off at all.

I dunno, I see people online praise war domain, and I'm not entirely sure why.  Like...bonus action attacks wis times per day...that's...cool, but there's a lot of ways to get bonus action attacks (polearm master, Monk, crossbow expert) not to mention, Spiritual Weapon already sort-of gives Priests bonus action attacks.  Accuracy buffing is cool, but then you need to put ASIs into your attacks so that your attacks actually matter.  Fighters dipping Cleric might be the better use of War domain Cleric.  (Also, you probably use Sharpshooter instead of GWM, since you want to get out of dodge when you have no more channel divinities left...which will basically be after one turn of attacks; this lowers the one-round damage from 37.8 to 32.8).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #669 on: June 13, 2016, 12:08:40 AM »
Barbarian notes:
Y'know I normally dismiss Great Weapon Master, because lol 40% have fun being unreliable, but it's actually pretty solid with advantage to make up for it and yeah Reckless Attack is cool. It does leave you extremely vulnerable to non-physical AC attacks... though yes, Bear Totem deals with that weakness! The reason I kinda assume otherwise is the Wolf effect at that level is good, though harder to quantify as it does depend on party somewhat. Of course, if Wolf is indeed the better choice, well, you've already proven shown its baseline with Bear, so more power to it. Psychic damage is extremely rare.

Bard:
While it's probably not as good overall, should mention that Valour Bard has 17*0.65 = 11 damage with a Rapier and 17? 18? AC with a shield. (Not sure exactly what equipment you ended up allowing, or rather how many.) Losing Fireball/Aura of Vitality kinda sucks but reasonable spammable damage + Shatter (13.5-18 AoE) and Hypnotic Pattern along with the revival healing is a pretty nice all-around package? Uberhealing Bard is probably more optimised, though. It'll be interesting to see how other healing figures compare.

I mean, I keep wanting to dismiss the -5 accuracy +10 damage effects, but usually when I run the numbers they end up being more average damage.  Even when the hit rate sounds hilariously awful like 35%.  If you hit 35% of the time, that means you'd hit 60% of the time without using this feature, so +10 only has to roughly double the damage to be a better trade (and +10 usually does roughly double the damage).

For a comparison, I haven't been impressed AT ALL by numbers I've run on Crit Fishing builds.  (Y'know, Barbarian 9 for Brutal Critical, Champion Fighter for Improved Critical.  If you fight with advantage you now have a 20% chance to crit!  Which...actually means your average damage per attack has been increased by 1.35, and all you had to do was take 9 levels in Barbarian, and give up Battlemaster maneuvers which can add d8 to your damage...and make it so that you won't get your third attack till level 20.  Woo?  Yeah...don't bother with that build unless you had other reasons to get that many levels in Fighter/Barb anyway).
« Last Edit: June 13, 2016, 12:11:06 AM by metroid composite »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #670 on: June 13, 2016, 12:56:13 AM »
Druid.

404 Druid not found.  Did you mean Polar Bear?

Polar Bear!
42 HP
12 AC
21 damage at +7 to hit

+7 to hit is 65% chance to hit.  13.5 average damage per turn.

The enemy also has +7 to hit, against 12 AC, so that's an 80% chance to hit.  Polar Bear lives about two turns on average.  This is actually pretty typical of DC2 creatures; some have even less AC (Rhinoceros) and the same HP.  Giant Elk is a little better in the AC department (14, best AC in tier!), but +6 to hit and needs to knock a target prone.  Giant Constrictor Snake has 60 HP, but half the damage.

So...realistically you concentrate on a spell.  Like...Barkskin can give you 16 AC; that's still not that impressive, though.  If the enemy doesn't have AoE you might do well with Conjure Animals.  Like...summon four Apes...each of whom can deal 10 damage (+5 to hit, so 55% chance).  And then turn into a Giant Elk to knock your opponent prone while the apes beat on it.  Alternatively, summon two Brown Bears, who deal about 19 damage with +5 hit.  Averages about 10.5 per bear.

Mmm...you'd think that a Druid with two wildshapes who just had wildshape upgraded, who is also concentrating on a spell would do okay in a 1v1.  Two wild shapes is definitely not enough.  With spells...only if the enemy doesn't have AoE and is stupid and attacks your summons instead of you, I think.

Of course, Druid is still a perfectly fine healer and utility caster.  (Although isn't going to compete with the big healing numbers at this level, since they just have the three level 1 spells right now, but their in-combat healing is fine, and converting extra spell slots to Goodberry right before a long rest tends to give them essentially free out of combat healing).

Hmm...wondering if I'm doing Wild Shape wrong at all.  Oh!  I'm probably supposed to use the level 6 proficiency bonus, so...5% better hit on Polar Bear attacks.  K.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #671 on: June 13, 2016, 01:47:33 AM »
Tempest Cleric:
Call Lightning is fine and all, but let's talk about Shatter, which feels the more important spell to note here. It's got a bigger radius than Call Lightning, and deals more initial damage as a L3 (18, channel divinity is 32), and doesn't require 100 feet of space above your target. And it can be used as a L2 as well, for 75% effectiveness. Call Lightning can be better, but you have to keep your concentration (and not have other good actions) to justify it. And... yeah, generally, in practice AoE feels really important. Shatter catches extra enemies a LOT compared to Call Lightning-esque spells in my experience.

Druid:
One of two 5e classes I've yet to see played at my table, I have nothing to add about them at this time.


Quote
I mean, I keep wanting to dismiss the -5 accuracy +10 damage effects, but usually when I run the numbers they end up being more average damage.  Even when the hit rate sounds hilariously awful like 35%.  If you hit 35% of the time, that means you'd hit 60% of the time without using this feature, so +10 only has to roughly double the damage to be a better trade (and +10 usually does roughly double the damage).

Mmm.

The thing is, which is better? 100% chance of 10 damage, or 50% chance of 20 damage?

And the answer is, the reliable one is definitely better. There are two reasons for this. One is that, we aren't usually just wailing down a huge solo, but taking out enemies who have considerably less HP than this. Which is to say... a reasonable share of your attacks are kills. And if you're targetting something with 4 HP left, then your damage doesn't matter, only your accuracy. (Granted, Great Weapon Master and its ilk are a bit better about this, since if you KNOW something only has 4 HP left, then you can use the more accurate version. But you usually won't know an enemy's exact HP, I'd say.)

The second reason to prize reliability is that... well, honestly, in most D&D campaigns, if the players approach things with some bare minimum of intelligence, most fights will be slanted in their favour; that is, almost all fights will be ones they have greater than a 50% chance to win. Usually quite a lot better! So the players are massive favourites. And that means they need to play like favourites, employing Goliath strategies, that is, reliable ones. Because with things slanted in their favour, to lose they need to get unlucky, and trying to go for big 40% hits is an excellent way to get unlucky.

Of course, the opposite is true if the player team is trying to win a fight they really "shouldn't", like picking a fight with someone the DM has advertised as too strong for them. At that point, you need luck to win, so sure, fish for criticals and low-accuracy high-damage shots!


To return to the specific case of Barbarian... 16 Str, +1 weapon, +2 rage damage, right? Greatsword. 14 base damage per swing, 65% hit, 88% reckless. With ASI, 15 and 70% hit, 91% reckless. With Great Weapon Master, 24 damage, 40% hit, 64% reckless. Times 2 in all cases.

Great Weapon Master: 48*0.64 = 30.7 (I think you missed the +1 from magic weapon)
18 Str: 30*0.91 = 27.3

So... 12% more damage for the wilder build. Again, reckless attacks certainly makes this more palatable than it would be otherwise. But is the 12% damage difference worth the lower reliability? I don't really know the answer to that. I could see going either way.

(It's also worth noting that the GWM build has bonus action attacks on a kill/crit (10% chance!), while the 18 Str build has +1 damage/accuracy with javelins and is 5% better at athletics/strength saves/etc. I'm willing to assume those advantages roughly offset.)

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #672 on: June 13, 2016, 01:52:56 AM »
Fighter.

So Fighter is interesting because you don't have a 100% reliable way to get advantage.  But you really want advantage.  Battlemaster with Trip Attack is one way to get advantage.

Except you also want to use Archery ideally, because +2 to hit from the fighting style matters a ton if you're using the -5 accuracy on Sharpshooter.  And attacking prone creatures outside of melee range gives disadvantage.  But also, using a ranged weapon within 5 ft of an enemy also gives disadvantage.  Crossbow Expert can remove the second disadvantage, though.

So...ok, Sharpshooter+Crossbow Expert+Trip Attack then?  Trip someone with your...hand crossbow attack (uh) and then walk up to them and shoot them while they're on the ground (ok, this part doesn't sound quite as silly as that first part).

Strength Saving throw to avoid tripping...DC is going to be 14.  CR6 monsters had +7 to attack, which implies +4 strength mod.  So...45% to trip the target (Assuming you hit).

That's...actually fairly unreliable.  There's another maneuver that gives you advantage on one roll; it takes your bonus action, though, so you wouldn't get the bonus action attack.

That said, you could ditch Crossbow Master, and get +1 DEX instead.  This gives you +10 to hit (+5 when using Sharpshooter).  So...55% chance to hit when using Sharpshooter, and 80% chance to hit without.  4+1+1d8+10 = 19.5.  55% chance to hit lowers that to 10.7.  Using the advantage maneuver gives you an 80% chance to hit (and adds d8 damage) for 19.2 average damage on one attack.  Or you can use the Precision Attack maneuver which...hold on let me use a spreadsheet...gives you a 78% chance to hit, but has the advantage that you get to wait until after seeing your roll to decide whether you want to burn a maneuver or not.  (If you've figured out the enemy AC, you probably want to activate precision if your D20 is between 5-9.  Only activating it in that range means your to hit becomes 74%, but it also means that you only use one maneuver every four attacks for a 74% accuracy with sharpshooter).

Yeah, ok, I like this plan.  74% accuracy, and not adding the superiority dice to the damage role, means 14.5 damage per arrow.  29 damage with two attacks.  58 damage with Action Surge.

Doing the same thing with Crossbow Master (no +1 ASI to dex)...well, ok for starters the base damage per shot is now 17.5 (d6 damage, -1 from less dex).  69% accuracy.  12 average damage per attack.  60 damage from an action surge, and 36 damage without.  Mmm...I guess that's technically better?  You will burn through superiority dice a bit faster, though (averaging 3/4 of a dice per turn instead of 1/2 of a dice per turn).  It does re-open the plan of "trip the target, and then walk up to them and shoot them in the face", though, so more options.

Either way, Fighter kills in about 3 turns.

Durability: Probably not wearing plate, can't use shields if you want to reload your bows, so...medium armour, 17 AC.  16 DEX 16 CON sounds reasonable enough.  58 HP.  (Plus a bonus action to heal 11.5 HP.  Once per short rest, though; watch out Bard!)

So...Fighter kills in 3 rounds pretty reliably.  Gets killed in about 4 rounds, but can use a bonus action to delay that to 5 rounds.  (In today's big shocker, things that Barbarian can do, Fighters can also do).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #673 on: June 13, 2016, 02:29:28 AM »
Not super-impressed by bow fighter.

First of all, while I agree that it works by RAW, I think Trip Attack is begging for a DM to slap a "melee attacks only" flag on it for reasons which are obvious. Fortunately, Feinting Attack and Precision Attack also exist.

Secondly, bows can't opportunity attack. You're a fighter. One of your big advantages is that you are more durable than the party average, can get in enemy faces and make them attack you, or risk your opportunity attack (which can potentially trip or push). If you can't opportunity attack... too bad, so sad, you don't get this advantage, and the enemies will probably work on hitting your more fragile allies. If you want credit for your durability, better have a melee weapon.

Thirdly, ranged attacks have disadvantage at melee. You're not a rogue, you don't have free disengage. Nor do you have saving throw spells like a pinned mage. If enemy(s) close to melee with you, and you don't have Crossbow Expert... what are you gonna do, exactly? Use Evasive Footwork for +4.5 AC against the opportunity attacks, or accept disadvantage. Neither sounds great.


Duelling rapier fighter, 2x ASI:

Damage is 1d8 +2 (duelling) +1 (magic) +5 (stat) = 12.5, with 75% hit. If we use Precision Attack we... basically don't miss. 91-94% accuracy depending on if your DM lets you recover from rolling a 1. So... 23 damage with two attacks. 19-20 AC. So... less damaging than the crossbow build, but more reliable, more durable, and can actually tank/defend.

Greatsword fighter. Your armour is more expensive, and you have -2 accuracy, but you still have opportunity attacks and you do hit harder when you hit. Without GWM, first, that's... 20 Str. Greatsword with the damage boost is 8.33, so that +5 +1 = 14.33 per swing, 28.67 for two, 91-94% accuracy. So... 26-27 or so. Beats the crossbow build in practice. 17-18 AC depending on if we allow plate. Lower initiative than Dex builds, stealth disadvantage, Dex checks/saves are more common than Str ones for what it's worth.

Greatsword fighter with Great Weapon Master? Base hit drops to 70%, if you fish it's 45%. This is lower than I'd like, even with Precision Attack, which makes it like 60%. Still, 23.33 per swing = 46.67 * .6 = 28.3 or so... it's there if you want it.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2016, 02:55:22 AM by Dark Holy Elf »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #674 on: June 13, 2016, 03:35:16 AM »
Tempest Cleric:
Call Lightning is fine and all, but let's talk about Shatter, which feels the more important spell to note here. It's got a bigger radius than Call Lightning, and deals more initial damage as a L3 (18, channel divinity is 32), and doesn't require 100 feet of space above your target. And it can be used as a L2 as well, for 75% effectiveness. Call Lightning can be better, but you have to keep your concentration (and not have other good actions) to justify it. And... yeah, generally, in practice AoE feels really important. Shatter catches extra enemies a LOT compared to Call Lightning-esque spells in my experience.

Mmm...I guess I passed over Shatter because it's not very impressive (13.5 AoE damage at half the radius of Fireball?  18 AoE damage at half the radius of Fireball when cast out of a level 3 slot?)  But sure, good point, using your channel divinity and a third level slot, you can turn Shatter into roughly Fireball damage.

There's also Thunder Wave as an option, which is the same damage as Shatter, but a 15 ft radius.  Requires you being at the center of the radius, though.

(There's some argument to be made for multiclassing into Lightning Bolt, then you can deal 48 damage.  That's one hell of a multiclass, though).

I think the big damage spell here comes from the 5th level spell Destructive Wave, which ignores friendlies, has a 30 foot radius, and deals the same damage as a fireball cast out of that slot, and has a chance to knock each enemy prone.  Frankly, just an overall good spell (better than casting fireball out of a 5th level slot, that's for sure).  (Half the damage is radiant/necrotic, though.  So...if you use channel divinity here you increase damage from 35 to 17.5+30 = 47.5).

Quote
Druid:
One of two 5e classes I've yet to see played at my table, I have nothing to add about them at this time.

The big thing that makes wild shape better is multiclassing.  Like...Barbarian for Rage stacks with wild shape.  Barbarian for Unarmored Defence stacks with wild shape (and most beasts will have decent con scores, so this isn't nothing).

From what I understand, Druid, or at least Druid who leans on wild shape is also just a class that spikes at certain levels.  Level 2 Druid becoming a Brown Bear?  Very, very strong for level 2.  Having 34 HP is really good for this level.  Attacking for 19 is really good for this level.  Then they don't get anything for a while...and then level 10 druids can become Elementals (by using both wild shape charges)--pretty good again.

(Honestly, though, druids are full casters with a ton of utility.  They probably shouldn't be able to outright solo things the Barbarian can).


Quote
Mmm.

The thing is, which is better? 100% chance of 10 damage, or 50% chance of 20 damage?

And the answer is, the reliable one is definitely better. There are two reasons for this. One is that, we aren't usually just wailing down a huge solo, but taking out enemies who have considerably less HP than this. Which is to say... a reasonable share of your attacks are kills. And if you're targetting something with 4 HP left, then your damage doesn't matter, only your accuracy. (Granted, Great Weapon Master and its ilk are a bit better about this, since if you KNOW something only has 4 HP left, then you can use the more accurate version. But you usually won't know an enemy's exact HP, I'd say.)

The second reason to prize reliability is that... well, honestly, in most D&D campaigns, if the players approach things with some bare minimum of intelligence, most fights will be slanted in their favour; that is, almost all fights will be ones they have greater than a 50% chance to win. Usually quite a lot better! So the players are massive favourites. And that means they need to play like favourites, employing Goliath strategies, that is, reliable ones. Because with things slanted in their favour, to lose they need to get unlucky, and trying to go for big 40% hits is an excellent way to get unlucky.

Of course, the opposite is true if the player team is trying to win a fight they really "shouldn't", like picking a fight with someone the DM has advertised as too strong for them. At that point, you need luck to win, so sure, fish for criticals and low-accuracy high-damage shots!


To return to the specific case of Barbarian... 16 Str, +1 weapon, +2 rage damage, right? Greatsword. 14 base damage per swing, 65% hit, 88% reckless. With ASI, 15 and 70% hit, 91% reckless. With Great Weapon Master, 24 damage, 40% hit, 64% reckless. Times 2 in all cases.

Great Weapon Master: 48*0.64 = 30.7 (I think you missed the +1 from magic weapon)
18 Str: 30*0.91 = 27.3

So... 12% more damage for the wilder build. Again, reckless attacks certainly makes this more palatable than it would be otherwise. But is the 12% damage difference worth the lower reliability? I don't really know the answer to that. I could see going either way.

(It's also worth noting that the GWM build has bonus action attacks on a kill/crit (10% chance!), while the 18 Str build has +1 damage/accuracy with javelins and is 5% better at athletics/strength saves/etc. I'm willing to assume those advantages roughly offset.)

Mmm...that's fair.  It's definitely worth noting, though, that Barbarian wielding a +1 greatsword is one case where the baseline bonuses are quite high (15 average damage on a hit without using GWM?  Damn yo.  Compare that to someone wielding a longbow, and the average damage from an attack might be 10ish).

Although since I just did the Fighter numbers let me do that comparison...2 ASIs into Dex.

5+1+d8 = 10.5 damage.  Your to hit is 5+1+3(proficiency)+2(archery) = +11.  So you hit 85% of the time.  9 average damage.  18 damage across two attacks.  36 damage on an Action Surge.  You can use Superiority Dice to add up to 4d8 = 18 more damage to this (or...if you roll a 2 or a 3 on your D20, use superiority dice to turn that into a hit; that'll probably happen once, but it adds more than a d8 of damage).  So...on average after three turns you deal 95 damage.  Compared to like...132.  This is a...38% improvement, in exchange for a little randomness.  (Or compared to the version that just uses sharpshooter and not crossbow master...22% improvement in damage)

Although...all of this is a little sketchy, because without Sharpshooter you have to worry about taking partial cover penalties from shooting into melee.  But let's ignore that for the sake of argument, because GWM doesn't come with potential +2 accuracy increases.

Alternatively, using Crossbow Master but not Sharpshooter.  4+1+d6 = 8.5 damage.  Your hit is +10, so hit 80% of the time.  6.8 average damage.  20.5 damage across three attacks.  34 damage across five attacks with an action surge.  So...basically the same average damage across three turns, except you can shoot prone enemies at point blank for advantage, so that's nice, but you do tie up your bonus action.



Hmm...well, old comparisons to FFT jump to mind.  Except in FFT you knew exactly how much HP was remaining, so you could plan out risky vs safe attacks accordingly.  (And FFT random damage had this bad habit of being lower on average than reliable damage, which is obviously silly.  But LFT fixed that).  The thing is, D&D doesn't really have reliable damage.  Like...90% to hit is about as good as it gets, and even then you roll dice for the damage.  (Using the +10 makes you much less reliant on damage rolls).

I mean, in the bow case, we're looking at...in the optimized for accuracy case, roughly a 95% chance to deal 10 damage, and pretty much guaranteed chance of using the superiority dice at some point.  Or...you can have a 74% chance of dealing 20 damage (I'll leave Crossbow Master out for now).  In a fight that lasts 3 rounds, we're looking at 8 attacks, let me pull out a spreadsheet....  The probability distribution for 74% accuracy looks like this:

(0 hits, 1 hit, 2 hits etc all the way to 8 hits)
0, 0, 0, 3%, 10%, 22%, 31%, 25%, 9%

So we're looking at what....  3% chance of dealing 60 damage.  10% chance of dealing 80 damage.  22% chance of dealing 100 damage.  65% chance of dealing 120+ damage.

This is a distribution that only deals about 22% more total damage on average, in exchange for unwanted randomness from 74% accuracy.  But it's pretty rare for this randomness to actually put it below the 95 expected damage of the "reliable" route.  (13% of the time its lower).  22% of the time it's basically the same damage (95 vs 100, ok whatever).  65% of the time it's noticeably more damage.

But wait, there's more--even with a 95% accuracy, over 8 attacks you'll roll a nat 1 sometimes (superiority dice aren't allowed to save a nat 1, pretty sure) or worse--you'll roll a 2, and then your superiority dice will roll 1, so you'll use a superiority dice and still miss--across 8 attacks, one of these scenarios happens a whopping 37% of the time.  So...if the argument is "I really want to avoid dealing 80 damage across three turns 13% of the time".  Actually, the 95% hit plan will deal 80 damage 37% of the time.  Actually maybe even a bit more common than that, because I haven't accounted for cases where you hit with all your attacks but just roll low on your damage dice.  Point is, it's D&D, there's always going to be a bell curve.

Now, you bring up good arguments that consistency is ideal.  But what does that mean precisely?  Does that mean we want to optimise...say the 5th percentile performance during a combat?  That's a definition of consistency that I can attempt to calculate or maybe simulate.  Cause yeah, there will be cases where something has a higher average, but also a higher standard deviation such that two standard deviations below average ends up being worse.  I don't think that's true in the bow fighter case, but I would guess it might be true for the barbarian.