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Social Forums => Discussion => Topic started by: metroid composite on April 08, 2010, 05:05:12 AM

Title: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 08, 2010, 05:05:12 AM
You know...every once in a while I analyze the metagame for Starcraft or Magic the Gathering or Pokemon or Advance Wars.  I don't always have anywhere to put my thoughts (and notably, some of these communities will flame you off the board for theorymoning/theorycrafting/etc...and not without reason--it's easy to overlook stuff when you theorize).  But I just happen to find theory fun, so as long as I'm entertaining myself by theorizing, I may as well store my thoughts somewhere.  And the DL seems like the place that would most appreciate analysis just for the sake of analysis.


So...without further ado, I'm kicking this off with...Pokemon:



Garchomp
(http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/garchomp.png)

Garchomp was banned from Standard play (i.e., declared an Uber) in September 2008.  The question that interests me is analyzing why.  When I first saw the ban, my thoughts were "but...but... it's a non-legendary with a three stage evolution and it's not completely weird like Wobuffet!  How could it be Uber?"  Well...let's actually look at the numbers.  What are the statistical differences between Garchomp and, say, the similar Salmence (which has remained legal for standard play).

BST
Let me first talk a little about Base Stat Totals (where you sum up all six stats).  BST values look as follows--a big group of ridiculously uber pokemon with 680 BST (or 670 in the case of Kyogre and Groudon).  Then a large gap, followed by an enormous group at 600 BST, including all the pixies with 100 in every stat (Mew, Celebi, Jirachi, Manaphy, Shamyn) all the Deoxys, and most of the top of the metagame including Garchomp, Salmence, Heatran, Tyranitar, Metagross, etc.  This group is about evenly split between OU and Uber--there's no Pokemon above this line that aren't banned (not counting Slacking and Regigas who cripple their own stats).  And there's no banned Pokemon below this line (except Wobuffet and Wynaut, which have their own way of breaking the game).  So...it's reasonable to say that this is roughly the borderline area.

Speed
So what differentiates the banned and unbanned 600 BST pokemon?  Well, for starters, the ubers are faster--all but three of the 600BST Ubers have over 100 speed.  The last three, at 100, 100, and 90, are Mew (incredible range of abilities), Manaphy (is a questionable ban--I'll probably look at her next), and Deoxys D (in competition for the most durable pokemon...while also having averagish speed and attack).  By comparison, the OU ones...half of them have speed 80 or below, four have speed 100, and one Latios (only recently unbanned) is at speed 110.

The speed, while clearly not a foolproof indicator, is actually relevant to Garchomp.  One thing you might notice is that there's rather a lot of pokemon with a speed stat of 100.  Garchomp, with a speed stat of 102, outspeeds that group.  (And, of course, in pokemon you just have to be faster to act first).

Damage
Now, while pokemon have six stats layered on top of abilities, you can roughly reduce them to Speed, Damage, and Durability.  I'll talk next about Damage.  Is damage important to whether a pokemon is ban-worthy?  All evidence points to yes--Latios remains banned while Latias gets unbanned--the big difference being that Latios has more damage and Latias has more durability.  On the lower end, Cresslia (a 600 BST pokemon that emphasizes durability over offence) dropped into Underused.  Other people have written before me on why offence dominates the current metagame (whereas defencive stall dominated the Gold/Silver metagame)--I'll just take it as a given that offence is good in the current metagame.

So...how's Garchomp's offence?  Its attack stat of 130 is hardly gamebreaking--among the legal 600-BST group, it's beaten by Salmence (135), Metagross (135), Dragonite(134), and Tyranitar(134), (and Heatran has 130 Special Attack).  Move-wise, however, it's better set up, getting STAB bonuses on 120-power Dragon and 100-power Earth moves (both types that hit some important weaknesses).  Nobody else in the unbanned 600 BST group has quite as much STAB relevance--if they have two types, one of the types is usually psychic (hits none of the 600 BST for super effective) or Flying (relevant against Grass...but neither Dragonite nor Salmence learn a flying move with more than 60 power...unless you count Fly).  Heatran...Fire is good, and Steel technically hits one 600-BST Pokemon for super-effective (Tyranitar), but it's rare to see Heatran with steel attacks as Steel is good against little else.  Which brings us to the one real exception--Tyranitar, with a STAB Rock and STAB Dark (both with 80 effective power when accuracy's accounted for).  But there you have it: 80 power moves, not 100-120 power.

The other important offence threat, of course, is stat raising.  Going through the unbanned part of the 600 BST group...Garchomp gets Swords Dance.  Celebi gets Calm Mind and Swords Dance.  Dragonite gets Dragon Dance and Agility.  Heatran gets nothing.  Jirachi gets Calm Mind.  Latias gets Calm Mind.  Metagross gets Agility.  Salmence gets Dragon Dance.  Tyranitar gets Dragon Dance and Rock Polish.  And for completeness, Cresselia gets Calm Mind and Shaymin gets Swords Dance.  So...almost everyone can buff.  Is Garchomp's Swords Dance any better than the others?  Any worse?  Garchomp arguably fares decently well against all of these--an argument can be made about whether Swords Dance or Dragon Dance is a better move on a physical attacker, but certainly if the physical attacker is already fast, then that gives Swords Dance a big leg up.  Calm Mind...it's noteworthy that Celebi who gets both uses more Calm Mind than Swords Dance...but Celebi's best moves are all special, and I'd wager that Celebi would prefer Nasty Plot/Tail Glow if it were an option.  (If nothing else, the fact that the +2 defence moves get completely ignored by the competitive community suggests Nasty Plot > Calm Mind).

Durability
As already mentioned in the previous section, durability is less important than speed and damage.  But...it's not completely unimportant.  Notably, Azelf has 115 speed and 125 in Attack and Defence...and isn't uber, and the 75, 70, 70 defences probably have a lot to do with that.  So...Garchomp's durability stats are 108, 95, 85--a little worse than the 100, 100, 100 pokemon, but only slightly.  He can reach 101 HP Substitutes (important because they survive Blissey's Seismic Toss) which...only about half the 600 BST pokemon can.

Ground/Dragon is Null Electric, Resistx2 versus Fire, Poison, and Rock, Weakx2 against Dragon, and Weakx4 against Ice.  The resistances are relevant (well...except Poison).  W2 to Dragon and W4 to Ice also matter a fair bit.  Just in terms of soaking up damage moves, this set of weaknesses/resists is unremarkable; W4s are pretty common (W4 to ice in particular...Salamence, Shamyn-S, Gliscor...it's almost like they're intentionally trying to emphasize ice W4s...I'm expecting a Grass Dragon in Gen 5).  So...yeah, not fantastic but not awful for damage taking.  Certainly better than some of the 600 BST group with 5+ weaknesses (Tyranitar, Celebi, Latias).

The typing is actually pretty strong in other ways, though.  Immune to Thunder Wave.  Having a Thunder Wave absorber can be fairly important for a lot of teams.  Not only that, against a fast pokemon that threatens to sweep your team, "thunder wave it" is a common strategy--Garchomp does threaten to sweep, but can't be shut down that way.  Perhaps more important is R2 against Rock.  Stealth Rock is everywhere, being a version of Spikes that hits everything (instead of missing the 1/3 of the field thanks to Levitate and Flying)--except that Stealth Rock really is a rock-type move, so Salmence (weak to rock) takes 25% every time it switches, and Garchomp (resists rock) takes 6.25% every time it switches.  Sandstorm doesn't hurt Garchomp (a pretty common weather because Tyranitar and Hippowdon cause it every time they show up, and both get used).  (Not that Garchomp avoids all battlefield stuff: hit by poison/burn/spikes/hail/sleep).

The final bit of durability is from Garchomp's ability (Sand Veil) which gives it +20% evasion in Sandstorm.  Let's suppose, for the sake of argument, that Sandstorm is going (you can use your own Tyranitar to start it, for instance).  For comparison...let's compare to Salmence's intimidate.  80% hit rate from all three of status/physical/special versus 67% damage from physical...but the 67% goes away if the opponent switches (and on a simultaneous switch, may not be relevant at all).  Sand Veil does seem better here, although that's only in Sandstorm (and in the defence of intimidate, there's switching in and out to stack intimidate as a relevant anti-sweep desperation strategy).

So...in the end, decently tanky.  There's tankier out there, but they tend to be specialists.  Granted, Garchomp only learns Rest, not Recover/Roost, so it's not going to head up a stall team any time soon.

--------

So...to summarize...among the non-uber 600 BST Pokemon, he's faster than almost all of the unbanned ones (and back in Sept 2008, was faster than all the unbanned ones), arguably has the best damage due to STAB options and skillset, and is more durable than about 2/3 of the unbanned 600 BST group.  Granted, there's a couple things I'm not accounting for here--like Standard is more physically oriented, which arguably makes the special attackers relatively better at damage (but also makes Garchomp's durability look slightly better).  Also Explosion--Garchomp doesn't have it, and he's not a steel/rock/ghost so he doesn't resist it.  But approximately speaking, "tied for highest stat total, and beats most of the other high-statters for speed, damage, and durability" is a decent description.  Which makes the ban look rather unsurprising....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on April 08, 2010, 05:16:26 AM
Sounds about right overall. Good read.

Not sure if I personally agree with the ban or not but he -was- sitting pretty much at the top of OU and if anyone was going to be banned it being the land shark makes pretty good sense so I'm certainly fine with it at worst.

Surprised Cressy has dropped out of OU since it was near the top there for a while as a good Specsmence counter. I assume the metagame has moved on from that. (If it's not clear I haven't paid attention to the metagame in quite a while, over a year anyway.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 08, 2010, 05:46:17 AM
Surprised Cressy has dropped out of OU since it was near the top there for a while as a good Specsmence counter. I assume the metagame has moved on from that. (If it's not clear I haven't paid attention to the metagame in quite a while, over a year anyway.)

Looking up the metagame statistics, the vast majority (>60%) of Salmence users these days go with Life Orb, with specs usage being below 8%.

Though...regardless, isn't specmence badly walled by Blissey too?  I suspect it's more "crowding out" rather than "Cress sucks now".  It probably doesn't help that they recently introduced Latias into the metagame, being another fairly scary special wall with psychic typing and Levitate.  (Although, granted, Dragon typing means you wouldn't wall Specsmence with Latias without scouting the move first).


EDIT:
Actually...and this is pure theory now...but isn't it possible that Specsmence has gone down in usage because of Garchomp's banning?  Pre-ban if you wanted to use a physical dragon, you'd use Garchomp.  Post-ban, you'd use Salamence.  Along the same lines, legalizing Latias also likely severely reduced specsmence--if you're using a specs-dragon, you probably want Latias, who has the same special attack as Salamence, but more speed and durability.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on April 08, 2010, 06:10:59 AM
Both of those seem likely.

EDIT: Also, this should go without saying, but the big thing Cressy had over Blissey was "tanks physicals, too". It was a decent all-around tank, just notable for being able to stop Specsmence unlike some others. But yeah, I should have processed what introducing Latias would do, there, even without the knowledge that Specsmence had fallen out of use.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Lord Ephraim on April 08, 2010, 08:31:00 AM
I see a Garchomp, and I just have Weavile ice punch them, so I don't see the big deal. >_>

Also

(http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/422/443gible.png)

Gible > Garchomp. It's so damn cute.

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ultradude on April 08, 2010, 12:13:16 PM
I see a Garchomp, and I just have Weavile ice punch them, so I don't see the big deal. >_>


In competition? I think Yache Berry is still in use, so Ice Punch won't one-shot it, and then Outrage splatters your obscenely frail counter. Or they just switch in bulky water type that Weavile can't do much against unless you're carrying a status or debuff move. I am, however, unsure as to the standing of Focus Sash in tournaments, which would bring it back around in Weavile's favor.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on April 08, 2010, 12:20:13 PM
I'm fairly sure YacheChomp is still common, yeah, and if Weavile were to somehow survive through items, then the switch could come in here. Garchomp's fast enough that, even on low health, it'd be perfectly capable of getting at least one turn out when it's brought back in.

To the actual topic, I'm honestly not surprised Garchomp's been banned, and this topic perfectly highlights why. Surprised to see some of the figures involved, though, and it was a good read. :)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on April 08, 2010, 01:08:53 PM
Token Grefter enjoying mc analysis goes here.  Numbers, conclusions, good times.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on April 08, 2010, 09:11:49 PM
Yache Berry is really the key item you are missing in your analysis here, as that's what pushed Garchomp over the edge. It takes something silly like Choice Specs Glaceon Ice Beam to actually OHKO Yachechomp, which means typically you need *two* Pokemon to stop it: one to remove the Yache Berry and one to finish the job. These Pokemon either need to be faster and have a competent Ice move (or know Ice Shard, which is priority), or be slower, can take a hit from +2 Garchomp, and have a competent Ice move. Moreover, the odds of Sand Veil triggering jumps from 20% to 36% in this case, i.e. a 36% chance Garchomp can face two Pokemon geared towards stopping it consecutively and still come out alive.

Also, Specsmence had already pretty much died out in favor of other models well before Garchomp's banning. It has no way of getting past Blissey ever, whereas Life Orb Salamence gives you 86.7% of the power on Draco Meteor while also possessing the ability to switch over to Brick Break or Outrage at any time to threaten would be special walls thinking about switching in.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on April 08, 2010, 09:26:01 PM
Token Grefter enjoying mc analysis goes here.  Numbers, conclusions, good times.

Quoting Grefter here. Well replace "Token Grefter" with "Tide" I suppose.

I love reading about this stuff - it's good material (and makes me think they're things we could put up on DL site as random musings or what not. But that's a story for another day).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2010, 12:01:55 AM
I am, however, unsure as to the standing of Focus Sash in tournaments, which would bring it back around in Weavile's favor.

Stealth Rocks break Focus Sash--anyone's team that plans a sweep tends to lay down Stealth Rocks first.  (Stealth Rocks are completely ridiculous that way--offence teams would probably use them if they dealt a constant 6% to everyone just because they break Focus Sash...but no, on top of damaging everyone they deal the same amount as spikes to most, and deal as much as 50% to rock weakness).

Yache Berry is really the key item you are missing in your analysis here, as that's what pushed Garchomp over the edge. It takes something silly like Choice Specs Glaceon Ice Beam to actually OHKO Yachechomp, which means typically you need *two* Pokemon to stop it: one to remove the Yache Berry and one to finish the job.

Scarf-mence with Draco Meteor kills, even with a speed-boosting nature.  And Scarf guarantees Salmence will be faster since Yache Berry Garchomp means that it's not using Scarf or Salac Berry.  Or if you don't like the downsides of Draco Meteor, a Scarf-Mence with a Nature that boosts special kills about 55% of the time with Dragon Pulse.

Though...regardless, yeah, this is something I didn't think of.  I didn't comment too much on items for Garchomp in general, which may have been a mistake.

I guess the reason I didn't look too deeply into item choices is that I figured they'd be determined by the stuff I was analyzing--for instance, the kind of pokemon you Scarf are generally the kind that have great damage and good speed.  The kind of pokemon you use a resist-berry on are generally ones with a single particularly glaring weakness, alongside otherwise good durability--I know Heatran uses Schuca Berry.  (Although wait no: looking a little deeper I'm not sure I have my mind wrapped properly around berry use at all--apparently a decent number of Tyranitars use Babbiri Berrys, and that's not even Tyranitar's W4.  I guess that's...fear of Bullet Punch?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on April 09, 2010, 12:12:23 AM
Stealth Rock is one of the reasons Gen4 held my interest less than previous gens. Spikes, at least, was mainly played by defence-oriented teams. SR is pretty much to your benefit to play -regardless-. And it singlehandled hoses certain pokemon utterly on top of being overcentralising.

I bet the Babiri Berries have something to do with Scizor who spent quite a while at the top of OU (not sure if he's still there). No clue on specifics though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on April 09, 2010, 12:24:14 AM
The downside of Scarfmence as a Garchomp counter is that an intelligent Chomp user will assume or test for the presence of Choice Scarf when you bring Mence into Chomp.  This will indeed force Chomp out, but if you follow through on the Meteor, it'll be able to come right back in two turns later - and the pool of potentially scarfed Draco Meteor users is a lot more shallow than the pool of potentially scarfed Ice move users.  Also, since Mence is weak to Dragon itself (as are all other STAB Dragon users, for that matter), you can't bring it in on Chomp without gambling or losing a poke, the gamble gets more dangerous once they know you have it, and what if you're wrong about Yache and it's a Scarfchomp?  etc.

Berry use is usually dictated by specific metagame concerns, "I want my X to surprise and counter-KO poke (or small group of pokes) Y that would normally beat it."  In the case cited, yeah, that's probably Dragon Dance T-Tar trying to counter Scizor, who is currently one of the most prevalent pokemon in OU and can stop a normal T-Tar Dragon Dance sweep with Bullet Punch.   Say you're running DDTar, you get it in vs the one poke on the opponent's team you can Dance up against and get your Dance as they switch to Scizor.  Scizor is going to Bullet Punch you for sure, the opponent knows you can't dance up against anything else on their team so it's unlikely you'll switch out.  If you survive the Bullet Punch and KO Scizor in return - well, Bullet Punch Scizor was probably the opponent's only planned counter to a DDTar, so you probably just won the match.  
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on April 09, 2010, 12:27:45 AM
Scarfmence was never used because if you wanted a Scarfed Dragon-type that can OHKO Garchomp but can't switch in on any sort of Dragon move, you'd use... Scarfchomp! <_< It was pretty much strictly better (takes SR/sand much better, much better second STAB, guaranteed to outspeed a DDmence that managed to setup still and revenge kill it).

Incidentally there was some thought that Latias could help check Garchomp's power since it doesn't need a scarf to outspeed Garchomp, so it could revenge kill without having to specialize. That was tested on a separate ladder a short while back (first with a whole bunch of other contested OU/Uber types like Latios and Shaymin-S, then just Garchomp/Latias/Manaphy for 'suspects'), and while Garchomp was indeed less effective people still voted it uber in the end, albeit by a narrower margin than before.

Because the type resist berries only work once, their use is pretty specialized - there's no point in having Blissey survive one Close Combat if the second one's going to kill her anyways. The first is lead Pokemon, which tend to metagame against a very narrow set of common leads and focus on getting their job done in terms of setup (or preventing enemy setup) in just a few turns. The second is setup sweepers, such as Yachechomp. DDTars run Babiri Berry because otherwise CB Scizor Bullet Punch OHKO (87.7% - 103.5% damage, guaranteed OHKO with SR up), thereby ruining the whole point of Dragon Dance,and Scizor is the most common Pokemon in OU play.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2010, 01:44:28 AM
Okay, I next want to analyze the tanks.  I'm kind of weirded out that I breezed over "Deoxys-D is uber" without really doing a comparison.  Not to mention I made a claim that it was the most durable pokemon, which I'm actually not sure is true--50 HP could be a problem.

First, dual-defences.  The goal here will be to use EVs and natures to get the lowest percentage of HP lost from a neutral 100 power attack from 300 attack/special attack opponent.  I'm aware this is moderately contrived, because generally you have your nature boost the stat with more EVs in it, but it's a place to start.

I'll do this in the format of...

Pokemon name
Evs, Nature
Stats these produce.  Damage done to this pokemon from a 100 power move off of 300 stat.  Percentage of HP lost.


Lugia (Uber)
EVs: 252 HP, 160 Defence, 96 Special, Def-boost-Nature
Defences are 368-369, HP is 416.  Damage is 65.  15.6%

Giratina (Uber)
EVs: 252 HP, 68 defence, 188 Special, Def-boost-Nature
Defences are 322-323, HP is 504.  Damage is 74.  14.6%

Deoxys-D (Uber)
EVs: 252 HP, 56 Defence, 200 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 406/407, HP is 304.  Damage is 59.  19.4%

Cresselia
EVs: 252 HP, 108 Defence, 148 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 333/333, HP is 444.  Damage is 71.  15.9%

Registeel
EVs: 252 HP, 56 Defence, 200 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 385/386, HP is 364.  Damage is 62.  17.0%

Blissey
EVs: 252 HP, 252 Defence, 4 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 130/307, HP is 714.  Damage is 180 (to physical).  25.2%

Wobuffet (Uber)
EVs: 80 HP, 176 Defence, 252 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 215/215, HP is 541.  Damage is 110.  20.3%

Snorlax
EVs: 252 HP, 252 Defence, 4 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 251/257 (favoring special), HP is 524.  Damage is 94.  17.9%

Shuckle!
EVs: 252 HP, 28 Defence, 228 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 553/553, HP is 244.  Damage is 43.  17.6%

Bastidon
EVs: 252 HP, 80 Defence, 176 Special, Special-Def-Boost-nature
Defences are 391/392.  HP is 324.  18.8%

Uxie
EVs: 252 HP, 64 Defence, 192 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 343/344.  HP is 354.  Damage is 69.  19.4%.

Umbreon
EVs: 252 HP, 152 Defence, 104 Special, Def-boost-nature
Defences are 322/323.  HP is 394.  Damage is 74.  18.7%.



...I think that's enough.  Most remaining ones are visibly inferior to an already posted non-uber.  But the point is...holy crap I was wrong: Deoxys-D fails stat-wise.  Uxie ties it for durability, beats it in attack, defence, and speed, has the same type, and has a much, much, much more defencive ability (Levitate instead of Pressure).  And Uxie us UU!  What the hell?  Good grief...maybe they think pressure is too good?  But...no Suicune has Pressure, and it's in a similar tankiness range.  So...I can only assume that it's Mew-clause "oh my god this movepool is too good".  Hmm....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on April 09, 2010, 02:05:12 AM
Deo-D gets Recover and all 3 entry hazards, so while it can't take hits as well as Cresselia, it can actually *do* something with its turns. 50% healing moves are incredibly valuable for defensive Pokemon now that Rest is highly risky and Gen 4 stall basically requires every single team member to contribute something significant to the team strategy (Sandstream, entry hazards, phazing, spinning, spin blocking, or Wish) instead of just sitting there and taking hits. On paper this means that Deo-D would be pretty much the ideal stall Pokemon if allowed in OU, aside from that fact that its resists suck.

With all that said, several high level Pokemon players have suggested testing Deo-D before. I'm not sure what entirely was the reason it slipped through the cracks, but I suspect the fact that it is taking them forever to get through Garchomp/Deoxys-S/Skymin/Latias/Latios/Manaphy has a lot to do with it, and Jumpman at least is dead serious about wanting to test species/evade/OHKO clause later on.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2010, 02:21:54 AM
Off topic when it comes to Deoxys/Garchomp, but...Shoddy server stats for Feb/March just posted:

http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=69643

Salmence, Scizor, and Latias all drop in usage.  Not what I was expecting. 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2010, 04:10:30 AM
but I suspect the fact that it is taking them forever to get through Garchomp/Deoxys-S/Skymin/Latias/Latios/Manaphy has a lot to do with it

They're testing Shamyn-S?  Hmm...

If we ignore the type chart, it sounds like madness--Shamyn's a lot faster than Garchomp and arguably hits harder (due to fewer special walls and Serene Grace and Seed Flare).  ...With type chart...the fact that grass is not very effective against flying, grass, dragon, or steel means that Seed Flare hits type resistance against every 600-BST OU Pokemon except Tyranitar (who is weak to grass).  That said, unlike grass, flying isn't resisted by 7 types, and with Flinch accounted for, Airslashspam is on average about a 165 power move.

The movepool is kinda kinda abysmal.  (Has swords dance, but very limited physical options.  Seed Bomb, Zen Headbutt, and...a bunch of Normal Physicals...Return, Headbutt for the 60% flinch, Secret Power for the 60%...how is Secret Power implemented in versus?)  And...past that, doesn't even have Calm Mind (it has GROWTH though!)  Moves on the special side are...a lot of good Grass stuff (Seed Flare which is absurd + every good grass attack).  Air Slash.  And uhh...outside of those types, there's Psychic and Earth Power, and then all other types use Hidden Power.

Defensively, it's stats are...not particularly defence-oriented, but it's not made of paper.  Type-wise, A W4 and four W2s...although two of those W2s don't matter much (Flying and Poison).  25% to Stealth Rock.  Avoids Spikes/Toxic Spikes.  Resists...R2 to Water and Fighting, R4 to Grass, Immune to Ground (all relevant resists to varying degrees).

In all...I'm still eying that Air Slash.  Unless you are one of the five fastest pokemon in OU, or you use priority moves, or you specifically counter Flinch, or you're scarfed, you're going to get flinched.  Choice Specs Air Slash...on average kills most pokemon before flinch fails (exceptions are very tanky or resist flying...although note that all flying resistant types are weak to Earth).

It seems...probably centralizing.  Not as obviously so as, say, Deoxys-A (which would just emphasize priority moves--at least there's a few more ways to counter Shaymin-S than just priority).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 09, 2010, 05:03:40 AM
All I have to say is this: I don't really know anything about competitive Pokemon aside from some of hinode's random comments in chat, but seems interesting enough.  To follow what was going on here, I looked up some stuff on the Interwebs at Smogon.

Under Wobbuffet - damn your Smash Brothers form - there is only one setup listed. ( http://www.smogon.com/dp/pokemon/wobbuffet )

It is "Oh, no! It's Wobbuffet!"

I was amused.

That is all.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2010, 06:05:12 AM
Under Wobbuffet - damn your Smash Brothers form - there is only one setup listed. ( http://www.smogon.com/dp/pokemon/wobbuffet )

It is "Oh, no! It's Wobbuffet!"

From what I've seen, that's an appropriate response to Wobbuffet.  Hmm...this fight will give you an idea of how god damned scary Wobbuffet is:

http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51272

It's noteworthy that I've seen people calling for Wobbuffet to be banned from ubers (they're wrong for a variety of reasons--such as "nobody gets banned from ubers, that's the whole point", but...yeah).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on April 10, 2010, 12:52:21 AM
Quote
They're testing Shamyn-S?  Hmm...

They were testing, rather. You can see what the results are, although Skymin managed the curious feat of apparantly performing much better with Garchomp/Latios/Latias/Manaphy - it was extremely controversial when tested alone and only got a 51% Uber margin, but got a supermajority when tested in a metagame with all the other 'Suspect' Pokemon (except Deo-S which completely dominated the first week and got a swift boot - although Scarf Skymin can actually beat Deo-S one on one!).

Incidentally you guys have only seen a fraction of Wobbuffet's brokeness. By the time it was given the boot from OU (way earlier than all the other tests), people had started running speed EVs on it and doing stuff like this:

Turn X: Wobbuffet switches in, Skarmory uses Roost
Turn X+1: Wobbuffet uses Encore
Turn X+2 to X+10 or so: Wobbuffet alternates Tickle and Encore to get Skarm to -6 Defense while keeping it Encore-locked
Turn ~X+11: Wobbuffet user switches to Tyranitar (the opposing Pokemon can not switch out this turn, as Shadow Tag is active when the decision on what move to use is made)
Turn ~X+12: Tyranitar uses Pursuit, guaranteed KO on Skarmory no matter what despite Skarm resisting Dark and having 416 defense

Basically any slow wall was at severe risk of getting trapped for the unavoidable Pursuit kill if they ever dared to use a non-offensive move. Of course if they used a (weak, due to lack of offensive EVs) attack instead, Wobb could just Counter/Mirror Coat for the kill the old fashioned way. And you thought gen 4 was rough on defensive Pokemon as it is!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2010, 03:44:54 AM
They were testing, rather. You can see what the results are, although Skymin managed the curious feat of apparantly performing much better with Garchomp/Latios/Latias/Manaphy - it was extremely controversial when tested alone and only got a 51% Uber margin, but got a supermajority when tested in a metagame with all the other 'Suspect' Pokemon (except Deo-S which completely dominated the first week and got a swift boot - although Scarf Skymin can actually beat Deo-S one on one!).

That...actually makes sense to me.  All of those pokemon are 100-110 speed, Skymin is 127.  The best way to counter a fast pokemon (assuming similar total stats), is either to be slightly faster, or much slower.  Introducing a bunch of very good, slightly slower pokemon is going to make Skymin look comparatively better.  It's also noteworthy that this adds two more decent targets for grass attacks (Garchomp is neutral to grass, Manaphy is weak).  Not to mention more users of ground and water attacks are fine by Skymin.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2010, 07:14:46 AM
So...getting to one I've had in the back of my mind for a while...

Manaphy
(http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/manaphy.png)

What makes Manaphy good in the Uber metagame?  Kyogre tends to cause constant rain, and then Manaphy heals status every turn, which, among other things, allows it to use Rest without spending any turns sleeping.  This is fairly tough to crack in ubers, let alone Standard.  Fortunately, Kyogre is not in standard.  Kyogre will never be in Standard.  So...Rain Dance lasts the usual 5 turns (or 8 with item), and you can probably spend those turns on something better than stalling and using rest.  And that's assuming the opponent doesn't have an auto-hail or auto-sandstorm pokemon...which are common enough.  In fact, as noted Manaphy has been tested before, and looking at Manaphy's move list in the experimental pool...most people aren't even using Rest at all on Manaphy.

Speed
Manaphy loses to 9 OU pokemon, ties with 6 OU pokemon, and beats 35 OU pokemon.  Definitely above average, but people already have the 100 speed number in their crosshairs, so they will pick speed numbers to put them 1 above certain 100 speed setups.  Even allowing for that, it's 70th percentile or so.

Offence
100 attack/special (compared to quite a few prominent pokemon with 130).  Only gets STAB on water, but water's relevant (nails Heatran, nails Tyranitar).  More specifically, water hits three relevant weaknesses (Rock, Ground, Fire) and is only resisted by three types (Water, Grass, Dragon), which, granted, are relevant types.  (It's also worth mentioning that water's neutral against Steel).

Movepool is fairly varied, moreso in special.  In Special has 90+ power attacks in Water, Psychic, Ice, Grass (...inconsistently; silly Grass Knot), and 75+ attacks in Ghost, and Bug.  But it lacks the "120 with acceptable drawbacks" moves (including Hydro Pump) not to mention the "140 with acceptable drawbacks" moves (like Overheat and Draco Meteor).  And...notably for OU, according to Shoddy statistics, the 10-most-used pokemon all frequently carry one of Fire, Earth, or Fighting (i.e. super effective against Steel).  Except Latias (still has HP Fire on rare occasions).  Manaphy gets no advantage for using Hidden Power, though--STAB Surf does as much as 70 power Earth/Fire/Fight to Steels.  On a different note, naturally if you do use rain it will further boost the power of Surf.  Notably, Rain+STAB = 2.25x, better than hitting a 2x weakness.

Manaphy's physical movepool is a lot less varied.  It has Waterfall (good physical water move), U-Turn (some arguments for being the best move in the game--I've seen good players use Baton Pass without any stat raising move in their setup just so that they could get extra information on switch ins.  Take that and add 70 Bug damage), and...some Normal options--Return for 102 power is probably the best.  But...regardless, we're probably not going to see a dedicated physical Manaphy any time soon; a Special Manaphy with U-Turn, sure, but....

Stat boosters--I'm going to come back to this; I want to lay the groundwork first.  Suffice it to say...Tail Glow.

Defence
Manaphy's one of those pokemon with 100 in every stat.  What does that actually mean?  Fairly solid, though not godly durability (by the previous measure, a Manaphy with defencive EVs takes 21.0% damage--which is to say, only 8% less durable than Deoxys-D >_>).  With the max HP EVs, reaches 101 HP Substitutes.  The status recovery in the rain is pretty cool, but honestly, if you're going to have one of your pokemon use a move so that another pokemon can recover status, there's Heal Bell.  The Natural Cure ability on, for instance, Celebi will usually be better.  In fact, in general I'm not too worried about pokemon who can be described as "only over the top on Rain Dance teams"--Rain Dance doesn't seem to be pushing the boundary on "too good" right now...and even if it was, something tells me mono-type teams that require setup aren't going to dominate.

Water on defence is pretty good--four relevant resistances (Fire, Water, Ice, Steel) and two weaknesses (Grass, Electric)--both from attack types with about twice as many resistances as weaknesses.  Also, that grass weakness?  Grass Knot is popular, and is only a 20 power move against Manaphy.  So...pretty tanky resist-wise...although the competition in the "100 in all stats" category includes Jirachi, who also has only two weaknesses...and 9 resistances.

Manaphy against the battlefield is...neutral to everything.  Normal damage from Stealth Rock.  Can be poisoned, burned, paralyzed, hit by hail, hit by sandstorm, hit by spikes, hit by toxic spikes.  I guess being a primarily special attacker it cares less about Burn than most.  To be fair, this applies to Celebi and Shaymin too...although they cure status more easily.  Jirachi's tankier here, though (can't be hurt by sandstorm, takes less from Stealth Rocks, and can't be poisoned).

So...outside of getting really meta (a la "everyone prepares for steel!!!"), durability goes Jirachi > Manaphy > Celebi.

Support
Manaphy lacks healing.  Rest is basically its only option.  (This is compared to Recover on Celebi, and Wish on Jirachi).  Past that, Manaphy has some decent-looking support options.  Heal Bell (cure party status).  Sleep Talk (could be paired with Rest).  Dual Screens (i.e. Reflect and Light Screen).  Safeguard.  And it does learn Rain Dance in case you want to alternate that and Rest.

Notably, Jirachi learns all of these except Heal Bell (Celebi learns all of these).  And...at least in the suspect latter, most of these were pretty rare (since if you want support, Jirachi does those AND Stealth Rock).

The most-used one, Rest, was used on about 20% of Manaphys, so some people try to make it work, but it's far from the consensus setup (unlike in ubers where its usage is like...95%).  I should also note, full healing is good, but if your opponent's dealing over 50% then you are heal-locked...and in Pokemon it's blind heal-locked (you don't actually know before they attack whether they will attack or do something else).  And naturally, if someone predicts a Rest and switches in Tyranitar or Abomasnow, then you're out cold for three rounds.

One more comment on the Hydration+Rest+Rain Dance Combo, Manaphy's not the only one that can use it; there are others, and they're all in the "Never Used" tier.  Granted, their BST is more middle of UU unlike Manaphy (whose BST would be tied for best in tier), but I'm going to theorize that if this move combination made you way better than your stats suggest, then presumably these other Hydration pokemon could keep their head above water in UU.  And if  this move combination does not make you way better than your stats suggest...well Jirachi has a lot of things that ought to make it look better than its stats suggest (Wish, Stealth Rocks, Steel Typing, U-Turn) and isn't uber.  So...if something's going to keep Manaphy banned, that thing probably won't be Rest+Hydration.

Tail Glow
So...remember that thing earlier that I skipped over?  Manaphy's stat-upping moves?  Yeah, so uhh, Manaphy learns Calm Mind, but it's pretty rarely used.  Perhaps because Jirachi learns it too.  But more likely because Manaphy gets freaking Tail Glow.  For those who don't know it, Tail Glow is Nasty Plot is Swords Dance for special attack.

So...who among the 600 BST group can we compare Tail Glow to?  Oooh, Garchomp has a +2...wait, he's banned.  Umm...Shaymin and Celebi have +2s in their less favoured stat that they don't have good moves for....  To be perfectly egalitarian in this comparison, I'd like to go for a special attacker like Heatran...wait, he doesn't have a stat-up at all.  So...who else uses Tail Glow?  Some 400 BST bug with worse stats than Ponyta.  Err...okay, who else learns Nasty Plot?  Well...notably Azelf, a pokemon that beats Manaphy in speed and special attack.

So...Azelf hits harder and faster.  But...arguably being tanky is important for a sweeper, just to make sure that the priority moves don't stop you.  And Azelf scores low on Tanky (30.8% using the same defensive measure).  Well...Togekiss...if we ignore the attack stat on both Togekiss and Manaphy (which, frankly, neither of them are using as Nasty Plot sweepers) then their stats look similarly good; Togekiss is a bit slower, but hits a bit harder, and is similarly tanky.  Oh, and Togekiss also gets two support moves that pair well with Nasty Plot: Baton Pass and Roost (Roost being arguably better than Rest).

It is noteworthy that rain dance teams get to give Manaphy an extra +50% before it uses Tail Glow (although this only boosts Surf.  Against Salamence or Latias or Celebi, Ice Beam's still better than Surf even in the rain, so it's not a straight +50% damage to all attacks).

---------------

All in all, Manaphy's really feeling like "not uber" to me.  It just tends to be boxed in on two sides.  Azelf is the faster Nasty Plot sweeper; Togekiss is the slower Nasty Plot sweeper.  Celebi is better at shrugging off status; Jirachi is tankier.  (And outside of Tail Glow they both learn better support moves).  Speaking of Celebi, I'm sure Celebi would love to have a water type to have an advantage over.  And as far as rain dance teammates go, I'm going to say Swift Swim impresses me a lot more than Hydration.

The other reason you might ban pokemon is just metagame reasons.  I mean, I can see arguments that, even if individually they're all balanced, unbanning multiple Deoxys and Latios and Latias would be silly, as it would overrun the metagame with psychic pokemon.  That said, water, while present in the metagame, does not threaten to overrun much.

You could also argue that too many pokemon with 100 in all stats removes variety, but in that case you'd want to do some head-to-head comparisons between Jirachi/Manaphy/Celebi (and assuming they come out even, I might swap Jirachi into Ubers and Manaphy out anyhow--Jirachi leaving means one less 600 BST Steel type, and one less Stealth Rocks user).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Scar on April 10, 2010, 05:05:00 PM
So I don't really do the whole competetive side of pokemon, but my friends in Tally do so whenever I go there I always get my arse handed to me by their teams.

~

Now, I'm not one to use a pokemon that looks lame or just doesn't plain fit my playing style on my team just because. I like to use pokemon who look cool and what have you for my personal team.

If I were to use a team such as: Lucario, Houndoom, Golduck, Electivire, Sceptile, and Scyhther ... would it work against a decent matched up opponent, or would those pokemon just bit the big one pretty badly?

~~

As a side note, when I do play those fools up in Tally they did mention that no Legendaries can be used in the team selection so that also affects things a bit...I guess?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 11, 2010, 12:42:11 AM
So...I'd like to take a moment to criticize the type chart.  Let's start with the two types added in Gen 2.

Dark as an attack type is good against Psychic and Ghost, bad against Dark and Steel.  Ghost as an attack type is...EXACTLY the same (except that Dark is half damage to Fighting, and Ghost is null damage to Normal).  I really have to look at this, scratch my head, and ask why.  Why add this whole new attacking type that is exactly the same as an old attacking type?  (Admitedly, Dark on defence is fine).

Then we have Steel.  Now, steel is obviously meant to be a defencive type with not much going on on offence.  Let's look at its offence, then--it looks like they wanted to make it weak against all the starters fire/water/grass...but that they messed up because those aren't the first three elements.  And the thing is, Grass is the one that really needed the help--Fire, Water, and Electric ALREADY had more resistances than weaknesses.  So...in addition, they decide to have it hit super-effective on two types...note that this means it hits more types super effectively than Normal, Dragon, and Poison, and the same number super effectively as Electric, Psychic, Ghost, and Dark.  "But wait" you say "some of those are good attack types because they have so few resistances."  Okay, let's look at the Super Effective vs Resistances counts:

Ground: 5 weak, 2 resist, 1 null (total: +1)
Rock: 4 weak, 3 resist (total: +1)
Ice: 4 weak, 4 resist (total: 0)
Fire: 4 weak, 4 resist (Total: 0)
Water: 3 weak, 3 resist (Total: 0)
Flying: 3 weak, 3 resist (total: 0)
Dragon: 1 weak, 1 resist (total: 0)
Fighting: 5 weak, 4 resist, 1 null (total: -1)
Dark: 2 weak, 3 resist (total: -1)
Ghost: 2 weak, 2 resist, 1 null (total: -2)
Psychic: 2 weak, 2 resist, 1 null (total: -2)
Steel: 2 weak, 4 resist (total: -2)
Electric: 2 weak, 3 resist, 1 null (Total: -3)
Bug: 3 weak, 6 resist (total: -3)
Normal: 2 resist, 1 null (Total: -4)
Grass: 3 weak, 7 resist (Total: -4)
Poison: 1 weak, 4 resist, 1 null (total: -5)

So where is steel in all of this?  Hovering just below average.  I mean, it's successfully not a good attacking type, but it's not a bad one either.

So...let's say I was making a super-defencive type, and wanted to hand out 10 resistances.  What types would I avoid resisting?  Easy answer--types where resistances are a rare sought-out thing.  Types like normal where, say, Rock, despite being a generally weak type, is noteworthy for its resistance to Explosion and Rapid Spin and stuff like that.  Naturally the designers don't agree...but Normal's still not too bad (after all, you still have two other options).

Dragon, however, is inexcusable.  I agree Dragon should have a resist!  However, if you're going to have an attack type that's only resisted by one, single defencive type, surely you would not give this type 9 other resists as well.  "so...I'm predicting my opponent will use a Dragon move, so I should probably switch to a pokemon who resists that.  And...just to be safe I'll also switch to a pokemon that resists Normal, Grass, Ice, Poison, Flying, Psychic, Bug, Rock, Ghost, Dark, and Steel."  The problem being that if Dragon attacks become really powerful in the metagame, obviously the response is to bring in steels, which then has splash damage on 9 other attacking types.  By comparison, let's suppose the one single Dragon resistance in the game was on Dark instead.  Now if Dragon attacks get big in the metagame, you'd have splash damage on like...two other types that dark resists.

Oh and...null poison, immune to poison attacks?  Really?  I mean, it leads to some interesting strategies like Jirachi carrying Toxic Orb and trick, but...oh wait, couldn't Poison pokemon already do that?  All they'd need to do would be to make a poison pokemon with Jirachi-level stats.

Next item...naturally it's reasonable for some types to be overall better than others.  I mean, this can just be an extra variable in the quality of the pokemon, right?  So...naturally we should expect some of the types that have lots of weaknesses and few resistances will have naturally higher stats...right?

Now...for this, 600-BST doesn't seem appropriate; most of those are legendary in some way, and maybe they feel like "we should make them good at everything, including type!".  Let's go with >500 BST; that catches stuff like starters, and a number of pokemon you can get in the wild).

Bug (+0 on defence) (-3 on offence)
2 Pokemon with > 500 BST.

Dark (+2 on defence) (-1 on offence)
5 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Dragon (+2 on defence) (0 on offence)
11 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Electric (+2 on defence) (-3 on offence)
7 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Fighting (+1 on defence) (0 on offence)
5 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Fire (+2 on defence) (0 on offence)
12 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Flying (+2 on defence) (0 on offence)
17 Pokemon with > 500 BST

Ghost (+4 on defence) (-2 on offence)
3 pokemon with > 500 BST

Grass (-1 on defence) (-4 on offence)
10 pokemon with > 500 BST

Ground (+1 on defence) (+1 on offence)
10 pokemon with > 500 BST

Ice (-3 on defence) (0 on offence)
8 pokemon with > 500 BST

Normal (+1 on defence) (-4 on offence)
9 pokemon (2 of whom arguably don't count) with > 500 BST

Poison (+2 on defence) (-5 on offence)
4 pokemon with > 500 BST

Psychic (-1 on defence) (-2 on offence)
21 pokemon with > 500 BST

Rock (-1 on defence) (+1 on offence)
7 pokemon with > 500 BST

Steel (+8 on defence) (-2 on offence)
11 pokemon with > 500 BST

Water (+2 on defence) (0 on offence)
17 Pokemon with > 500 BST

So...the types that hit double digits are almost all types that are in the black in terms of good resistances/hitting weakness.  The exceptions?  Grass (which has the leg-up from having 4 starters) and Psychic (which they ret-conned to have more weaknesses).

By the way, random weirdness: Electric having only one weakness?  Really?  I mean, ignoring the stats of its pokemon, it's one of the tankiest types.



All-in-all, wow, type chart is weird.  I mean, arguably there's too many types, so arguably simplifying it a bit is not a bad thing by making it effectively 10 types or whatever.  But...wouldn't it better to design the game with 10 types from the start?  And have a slightly more readable type chart?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: dude789 on April 11, 2010, 01:10:21 AM
This is a very good read and it's really interesting to read something like this about pokemon. As for new Gen 2 types. I think back when those two types were introduced the intention wasn't to have them be as redundant/overpowered defensively as they are now. I think both of them were created because psychic types really needed a counter of some sort and a new type or two seemed to be the best way to accomplish that. Ghost despite being hailed as the psychic counter was ineffective because they all had poison type as a secondary type and the only non fixed attack move they had was lick. Similarly, most of the bug types either sucked, had posion as a secondary typing, or didn't learn any bug moves.

As a result, dark was created as a type that could completely shut psychics down and steel was a type that could at least slow them up. Of course another thing that differentiated dark and ghost was that ghost was a physical type and dark was a special type back then. Steel is another type that I think started off as a good idea and became overpowered as more pokemon were introduced. In Gen 2 most of the steel types lost speed when they evolved and most of them had a glaring weakness to either ground or fire. However, I do agree with you that immuning posion is unnecessary. Heck if anything, they could make it so that steel was weak to poison. It makes sense (corrossion) and it would be a nice boost to a type that doesn't have a whole lot of good pokemon.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 11, 2010, 01:25:23 AM
I think both of them were created because psychic types really needed a counter of some sort and a new type or two seemed to be the best way to accomplish that.

Alternatively, they could have modified the type chart.  Which they...actually did!

Remember...

Poison used to be super effective against Bug (neutral now)
Bug used to be neutral against Poison (resisted now)
Ice used to deal neutral damage to Fire (resisted now)
Ghost used to be null damage against Psychic (super effective now)

(And no, I don't understand why Bug and Poison were nerfed as attacking types).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on April 11, 2010, 02:25:48 AM
Those modifications have always seemed quite situational to me.  The type chart doesn't exist in a void, the designers were free to (and should!) consider the actual moves and pokes available in each type since... they control that too!

Poison resisting Bug, for example.  In RBY Bug really didn't exist as an offensive type and Poison was absolutely terrible on defense.  In GSC, Bug... still doesn't really exist  - except for Megahorn on Heracross, which is The Signature Offensive Move on The Signature Offensive Pokemon of the entire generation and was certainly expected to run amok.  Giving bug resistance to poison helped pull poison out of the hole of complete uselessness it was stuck in and let Gengar, Nidoqueen/King, Muk, Weezing, and the Grass/Poison crowd stand up to Hera.  (unless it had Earthquake, but... well.)  Increasing the defensive usefulness of those pokes seems like something Game Freak was quite interested in doing.  But they still wanted the Poison type to suck at direct offense in general (seems a clear case of "it's a status type, not an offense type"), so no SE against Hera and the complete walling by steel.

Dark is Ghost on offense, yeah, but it's Ghost that isn't tied to a Normal/Fighting immunity, which obviously shouldn't be given out too freely.

Steel... was a gimmick type in Gen 2 that was meant to make a select few pokes horribly defensively powerful while overemphasizing their weaknesses.  Definitely balanced by the pokes it was on rather than judging it in a void.  All the GSC steels are really bad at offense except MAYBE Magneton, and, indeed, steels aren't overrepresented at all in the Gen 2 metagame.  It worked well as a type then. 

Going on to make more and more steel pokes in gen 3+, with awesome stats and offensive capabilities without rebalancing the type chart to compensate - that I can't explain.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Cmdr_King on April 11, 2010, 02:39:26 AM
My gutcheck there is that they had a large negative reaction from the type chart adjustments between Gen 1 and 2, and decided that adjusting it again wouldn't be worth it.  Why they still went ahead with making... 6 or 7? new Steels in Gen 3 after that decision of course is anyone's guess.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 14, 2010, 04:37:03 AM
Formulae.

So...the basic stat formula that you'll use at level 100 is...

IV + EV/4 + 2*Base_Stat + 5

(Round down the final result)

Base_Stat is the number that gets thrown around all the time; 85 is probably about average.
IV is 0-31 (a random value in-game; fixed to 31 for internet ladders).
EV is 0-255 (but you can distribute at most 510 EVs.  Now, why this is 510 and not 511 is a little puzzling to me.  It's possible there's some really clever storage trick for storing numbers that sum to less than or equal to 510...but I'm not sure what such a storage technique would be, and honestly suspect that the game just dedicates the 6x8 bits for each pokemon.  No, the one place I can see 510 coming from is a designer deciding "I want this mechanic to let you max two stats.  255 to max one stat, 255x2 = 510.")

But the formula is a bit more complex than this--it's really (not counting Natures just yet):

(IV + EV/4 + 2*Base_Stat) * (Level/100) + 5

And for HP:
(IV + EV/4 + 2*Base_Stat) * (Level/100) + 10 + Level

Which has some interesting implications for levels not 100.  For one thing, at a certain point I was silly and assumed "if you get 4 EVs, I guess you get an extra stat", which is not true at all below level 100.  For another thing, it means that choosing EVs below level 100--notably, in the level 5 competitive metagame you get some interesting strategy around making round numbers:

http://www.smogon.com/dp/articles/little_cup_guide#EVs

In particular, you're multiplying the end result by (5/100) = (1/20) so you want the end result to be divisible by 20.  Only the final digit of Base_Stat matters, because for all higher digits, you have a number in the form of ??0, which you multiply by 2, and thus is divisible by 20.

So...taking the final digit of the base stat multiplied by 2, and added to 31 from the IV, you can see how many EVs you need to get a number divisible by 20.  For instance, if the Base_Stat ends in 4, then 31 + 2*4 = 39, so you only need EV/4 to be 1.  By comparison, if the base stat is 5, then 31 + 2*5 = 41, so if you want to bring this up to something divisible by 20, you need 19 stats, and thus 76 EVs.


This also has implications on, for instance, the world championships which are held at level 50.  The point is that it's better for EV/4 to be an odd number, since 2*Base_Stat is always even, and 31 from IVs is always odd.  Now...you can do the usual 252, 252, 4 to get three odd numbers (63, 63, and 1).  Or you could go for 5 odd numbers instead, by using (63, 61, 1, 1, 1).  This lets you exchange, for instance, -1 Atk for +1 Def +1 SDef.  Might be worthwhile.


Back to durability
Okay, so so far most of this post I'm assuming is well-known information.  One thing that's been interesting me...remember those durability calculations how nearly all pokemon wanted EVs in HP rather than defence?  Well...I started wondering, where's the cutoff point?

Let's say you're going for overall combined durability between physical and special, and get to distribute a total number of base stats to do this (or, more realistically, you get to distribute your EVs--for the purposes of this calculation I'm just going to merge base stat and EV into one controlled stat).  What's your ideal distribution.  Well...for starters your stats look like this at level 100:

HP = 2*Base_HP + 31 + 100 + 10 = 2*Base_HP + 141
Defs = 2*Base_Defs + 31 + 5 = 2*Base_Defs + 36

And the percentage damage that gets done is roughly damage/HP ~= (Constants/Def)/HP.  So...we just minimize HP*Def, which is a pretty classic minimization problem.  The one extra wrinkle is that we're generally choosing between +2 HP and +1 Def/+1 MDef.  So...basically, let Base_HP = x...

2*Base_HP = 2x
2*Base_Defs = 2( (Tot_Stat - x)/2 ) = Tot_Stat - x

So...we're trying to maximize:

(2x + 141) * (Tot_Stat - x + 36 ) = 2 * (x + 70.5) * (Tot_Stat - x + 36)

So...this is a really easy optimization--you don't even really benefit from calculus for this one, it's an x * (T-x) problem, and the answer is when x and (T-x) are closest to equal.

x + 70.5 = Tot_Stat - x + 36
2x = Tot_Stat - 34.5
Base_HP = (Tot_Stat - 34.5)/2

Or, to put this in a bit more of a table format, here's some optimal stat distributions:

Tot_StatHPDefSDef
3401717
102343434
2341006767
3021348484
3341509292
368168100100

At the bottom of the chart the HP to Def ratio heads to 0, at the top of the chart, the HP to Def ratio heads to 2:1.  In a more middle normal range, the best ratio is more like 3:2 in favour of HP.

The next interesting question is "when a pokemon has badly distributed defensive stats, just how bad is it?"  Like...Deoxys-D spends 390 base stats on durability.  Well...we plug in (Tot_Stat - 34.5)/2 into our formula to get...

(Tot_Stat + 106.5) * (Tot_Stat/2 + (34.5 + 72)/2) = 1/2 * (Tot_Stat + 106.5)^2

However, this formula is also the actual defence stat times the actual HP stat.  So...non-EVed Deoxys-D has...

HP*Def = 241*356 ~= 86,000
(optimal) HP*Def = (390+106.5)^2 * 1/2 ~= 123,000

So...70% efficiency (compared to what it would be with 180 base stat and 105 defences).  And...well, it's not even as bad as all that, because everyone maxes out HP EVs, which means the combined base HP is more like 81.  Plugging that back into the formula (453 base stats on durability, HP maxed, defs even) we get...

HP*Def = 304*388 ~= 118,000
(optimal) HP*Def = (453+106.5)^2 * 1/2 ~= 157,000

So...this brings Deoxys-D up to 75% optimum.

Hmm...for no good reason I wonder what the lowest base defensive stats a pokemon can have and match Deo-D.

(tot+106.5)^2 * 1/2 ~= 118,000
And so we multiply by 2 and square root and subtract 106.5...
tot = 379
Although of course: bear in mind that Deo-D with 453 total defensive investment is after EVs; So...removing EVs from 379 we're looking at 316.  Or more specifically, something like 142 HP, 88 Def, 88 SDef (doesn't have to be exactly this since EVs can take something with slightly worse HP/Defs balance and balance it).

Durability at lower levels
What's going to change?  Well...these:

HP = 2*Base_HP + 31 + 100 + 10 = 2*Base_HP + 141
Defs = 2*Base_Defs + 31 + 5 = 2*Base_Defs + 36

Notably, it becomes more like...

HP = 2*Base_HP + 31 + 100 + 10*(100/Level)
Defs = 2*Base_Defs + 31 + 5*(100/Level)

So, at, say, level 5, this is more like...

HP = 2*Base_HP + 331
Defs = 2*Base_Defs + 131

So...our maximization function looks like...

(2x + 331) * (Tot_Stat - x + 131 ) = 2 * (x + 165.5) * (Tot_Stat - x + 131)

Notice the real kicker yet?  The optimal x value is exactly the same as it is in the level 100 case.  (Tot_Stat - x) needs to be 34.5 less than (x).  It seems that the developers knew exactly what they were doing when they put a +10 in front of HP, and a +5 in front of all other stats.

There is, however, one behavioural difference: your base stats matter less.  Stat values are more homogeneous on the whole (which is exactly what you'd expect when you add constant values much larger than the stat).


Well...but I've been making an assumption that I don't think I can make at low levels.  Let's look at the actual damage formula:

Damage = ((((2 * Level / 5 + 2) * AttackStat * AttackPower / DefenseStat) / 50) + 2) * STAB * Weakness/Resistance * RandomNumber / 100

Particularly the +2 on the right is something I've left out completely (so far).  I played around with the optimization problem here (take the derivative, look for where it's 0) and it's...an ugly optimization.  I won't copy the notes I made on the plane.  I did some linear approximations and came to the conclusion that at level 100 you can pretty much ignore the +2 term for optimization purposes.  but at low levels such an assumption is probably wrong.  And high defences suffer the most--even if you had 300 defence at level 5 (a feat that would require 3000 base stat), you'd still take 1-2 damage from anything and go down in about 10-20 hits.  For medium-high defences it becomes more like "average damage is 12, and that attack gets reduced to 4" whereas at level 100 it's more like "average damage is 102, and that attack gets reduced to 22".  a 5:1 ratio at any reasonably high level becomes a 3:1 ratio at level 5, again devaluing defence.

Part of the problem with this one is that it's subject to just how strong the attack being used on you is, too.  I'm not sure of a great approach, but a decent approach is to say "if the goal is to survive 2 hits, then you'll need 4 extra HP for the +2s".  4 Extra HP at level 100 is 2 base stats (or 16 EVs).  4 Extra HP at level 5 is 40 base stats (or 320 EVs...more than the 255 max).  This allows us to use the simpler equation because we've already allowed for the +2 in our planned survival.

Of course, there's some potentially confusing points here.  If a move is super effective, then that +2 becomes +4.  If a move is STAB, then the +2 becomes +3.  If the move is STAB and hits 4xWeak, then that +2 becomes +12.  So...if your goal is surviving two hits from a common opponent who has a STAB on your W4, then you're going to need 24 extra HP for this, not 4 extra HP.  Realistically the goal is probably more like "survive two W2s from non-STAB opponents", in which case you need to set aside 8 HP, rather than 4 HP.

So...yeah, we can get a decent approximation of how to deal with the +2 part of the equation.  Factoring that back into the old equation for level 100 makes it like...Base_HP = (Tot_Stats - 30)/2.  (Not complaining about that; 30 makes for rounder numbers than 34.5).  And...for level 5, it's more like Base_HP = (Tot_Stats + 45)/2.  (Both of these numbers assuming setting aside 4 HP).  Okay, so let's do one that's kinda in-between and interesting and I'm not quite sure where it will land; setting aside 8 HP (survive two W2s) at level 50 (world championship levels) We end up looking like...Base_HP = (Tot_Stats - 18.5)/2.

Redoing the table from earlier for Base_HP = (Tot_Stats - 20)/2

Tot_StatHPDefSDef
2001010
60202020
2201006060
3001408080
380180100100

Notably, if you're using Giratina-O and only have 252 EVs to dedicate to defences, you can justify at least 244 of them in HP.  (Giratina-O being the one with high HP but not all that high defences...).  The level 50 quirk of "odd numbers better" means you want to put 4 Def, 4 SDef with the last 8, granted.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2010, 06:08:05 AM
Switching to Magic the Gathering for a bit...

So...for a bit of background, the most recent set, first card I saw I thought "huh, it looks like they're imitating Cthulu".  Of course, one of the nice things about MtG is you get to have a window into the designer's head:

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/mm/84

(To paraphrase: "we decided to do Cthulu/Galactus".  Whee, it's fun to be proven right.)



Now, I'm going to focus on constructed magic here; not because what they're doing with Limited isn't interesting too (it is) but because I don't feel I understand Limited on a theoretical level.

So...constructed--it's certainly plausible for 9+ mana creatures to see constructed play--Iona, Shield of Emeria (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=190407) already does right now, for instance.

So what is the biggest obstacle to large creatures seeing play?  Simply put, removal.  You spend 10 mana, they spend 2 mana on a spell that says "destroy target creature" or "counter target spell" or whatever--10 mana vs 2 mana: you're behind.  What large creatures need, then, is to either have an immediate bonus effect so you don't care if it's killed (like Wall of Blossoms (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=5265)) or something that makes it hard to kill.

With that in mind, we can eliminate from the potential playability list the following monsters: It That Betrays (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=198171), Pathrazer of Ulamog (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193607), Spawnsire of Ulamog (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193535), and Ulamog's Crusher (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=194908).  And...well Hand of Emrakul (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193616) is just in a totally different category, being a "small" creature that would only be considered in constructed if the Spawn Token cards are good enough on their own, which is an entirely different question (for another day, perhaps).  Okay, so eliminating those leaves us with...

CardMana  StatsExtrasWhen you cast
Artisan of Kozilek (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193429)910/9 Annihilator 2return a creature from your graveyard to play
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193632)1012/12 Annihilator 4 draw 4 cards
Ulamog, the infinite Gyre (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=194911)1110/10 Annihilator 4indestructibledestroy target permanent
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193452)1515/15 flying Annihilator 6can't be countered, protection from coloured spellstake an extra turn after this one

Let's start by looking at the "when you cast" bonuses--as these are the bonuses that can't be stopped (counterspells don't even stop them, because you've already cast the card).  Most of these are actually 5 mana Sorceries that have seen competitive play in modern magic, actually.  Return creature from graveyard to play (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201800) (slightly stronger being "any graveyard", but same idea).  Draw 4 Cards (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=129770).  Take an extra turn (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191379).  The one sort of question mark is destroy target permanent--Desert Twister (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201210) is bad, Mangara of Corondor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=113563) is 3 mana, but takes a full turn to activate...and there's Vindicate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19135) at 3 mana, but the consensus is that said spell is very undercosted (and still used in type 1 style formats IIRC) and there's Confiscate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=83037) which did see play, but is better than a destroy effect.  So...just how much is "destroy target permanent" as a monocolour sorcery worth?  I think we can safely say "at least 4" as Wrecking Ball (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=111202) seems to be interesting enough to consider in Extended (http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/article.asp?ID=8785) (although granted: it's an instant, not a sorcery).  And...not 6.  So...4 or 5 mana (and probably 4 of those two, if it wants to see tournament play).

But the context of a large mana spell is more important here--for instance, they seem to no longer print land destruction below about 4 mana as it can be nasty early in the game, but on a 10 mana creature, "destroy target nonblack creature" would be of greater value than "destroy target land".  So...what are the contexts here...

Artisan of Kozilek: 9 mana for 2 creatures.  This has been powerful before (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48122).  But Artisan is more limited--you're stuck choosing Artisan's body as one of the two (not a bad body, but doesn't allow combos).  And you need creatures in the graveyard to get your two creatures (which would have been reasonable in some older blocks where the best turn 3/4 draw spells had you drawing and discarding cards, but is inconvenient in the current metagame).

Kozilek: 10 mana for uncounterable draw 4 cards.  Uncounterable but expensive card draw certainly has seen play (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=122449).  The current metagame may value this less than the metagame in 2006, however, as counterspells are a bit out of favour right now (blue decks tend to run about four counterspells).

Ulamog: 11 mana for a big creature with destroy target permanent.  Last time I remember this being big was Angel of Despair (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=83869) which is 7 mana.  Mind you, the other comparison that could be made here is to Darksteel Colossus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191312), which is 11 mana for an 11/11 indestructible trample, while this is 11 mana for a 10/10 indestructible annihilator 4.  Both have indestructible, and if you attack twice with them you probably win (22 trampling damage...or sacrifice 8 permanents and chump block with a 9th).  However, indestructible isn't fantastic in the metagame, what with strong bounce removal, strong exile removal (formerly known as "remove from game"), and some Mind Control (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=190197) running around.  Indestructible still helps, mind.

Emrakul: 15 mana for take an extra turn after this one...which in the context of Emrakul's other abilities means untap all lands, draw a card, your opponent sacrifices 6 permanents and is being attacked by a 15/15 flying that they can't stop using spells.  The usual weakness of time walk effects is that they're basically just draw a card...unless you have creatures or something like creatures that do things every turn...and Emrakul all but guarantees that you do make use of the extra turn.  Of course, the downside of Emrakul is the mana cost; people are already spending 9 mana, so a different 9 mana threat getting attention is reasonable, and 10 or 11 sound like "well...that's still somewhat close to 9 mana".  15 though?  Way off.  And if you have that kind of mana, arguably you're into "just fireball your opponent" range.  (Of course, if you're going to cheat your way around the mana cost somehow, Emrakul's the obvious one having the biggest body).



Anyhow, the first usage statistics are in, and the winner so-far seems to be...Ulamog.  I'm sure this has surprised some forum-goers I read some posts a while back expressing their disappointment with Ulamog (roughly to paraphrase: "Ulamog is smaller than Koziltek, and costs more, and destroy a permanent sounds less shiny than draw 4 cards.")  Only one of this poster's complaints was actually practical, however--10/10 vs 12/12...they're basically the same size, namely the size of "kill in two hits unless chump blocked."  Destroying having less bang than draw 4?  Not necessarily in practice--control decks have shifted more towards planeswalkers (cards that build up resources until they kaboom).  One permanent can actually have a very high resource value--higher than you'd think from just the mana and card spent.  Hence a lategame uncounterable "destroy target permanent" can be a significant resource swing.  And the final actually valid complaint: yes, Ulamog costs 1 more mana...although arguably that's more than worth-it for the added indestructability.

It's still early in the metagame, though; it'll be interesting to see if things shift--Kozilek getting more favour wouldn't surprise me in the right metagame.  And potentially Artisan if they print good "draw and discard" cards again, provided blue keeps running 9 mana creatures--since, y'know, Iona+Artisan > Iona on her own.  Also, doing it this way gives Iona that can't be countered, which is cool.

Emrakul's already seen play in decks designed to cheat him out, naturally.  I'm not holding my breath on decks that actually plan on hardcasting 15 mana, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 16, 2010, 06:27:16 AM
This post is well, not necessarily anything practical in any sense whatsoever, as just something I started thinking about and wanted to do some calculations.

What am I talking about, you might wonder?  Sweeps with terrible pokemon; example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye7b3bOQ6lY

This is actually on the tame end of things--Magikarp has Flail and Swift Swim, so while it's ridiculous for it to solo a team, only four or so setup turns are used for it (Spore, Substitute, Belly Drum (triggering Salac Berry), Baton Pass).  People have taken this a fair bit further by trying to use considerably weaker pokemon and...buffing just about everything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrOubH5lubE

Buffing everything, mind you, because Caterpie (who at the time could only learn Tackle) can't solo by OHKOing stuff, but needs to actually survive enemy hits and such.  So I was curious to check, just how powerful is one of these Karp-esque pokemon after buffs?  Like, what would be an equivalent unboosted pokemon?

Looking at Caterpie and comparing to Garchomp...

For starters, I'm going to have to disagree with the setup posted in the Youtube description.  Razor Claw or Scope Lens aren't the best item here--with Focus Energy baton passed, they take the critical hit rate from 25% to 33%.  By comparison, Choice Band multiplies the *whole* attack stat by 1.5 (including all the Swords Dances).  Even if he needs crit damage to break through specific problem setups, 25%*1.5 = 37.5%--so Choice Band actually means more critical damage (as well as more normal damage, obviously).

Adamant with max power EVs is obvious.  (In addition to being one of the best stats you can raise for a longer slugfest, making things take fewer turns = less time in which stuff can go wrong).  Some form of defence EVs after that are also obvious.  (You certainly don't need the speed--4x boost on speed is "enough").  Now, how exactly you split the defence EVs is an interesting question--before the substitute goes down, it's only Caterpie's defences that will matter, but after the sub goes down, it might be advantageous to raise HP to the next multiple of 16 to take full advantage of Aqua Ring/Ingrain.  (Heal 30 HP per turn instead of 28).

There's a reasonable question too--while he EV trained Caterpie entirely in defence, this does leave it very vulnerable to special attacks (and it nearly dies from two Tyranitar Fireblasts at the end...so, say, Heatran with Overheat would OHKO).  The probable logic behind this is probably one of "OU is more physical" "Flying and Rock are usually physical" or "you need to get lucky and face a stupid opponent anyway--maybe your opponent won't notice the low special stat."  However, balanced defences will make it easier to compare to other pokemon, and since this is purely a mathematical comparison exercise, let's go with the easy comparison...

100 HP EVs (reaches the "heal 32 HP per turn" mark) 20 Def EVs, 136 SDef EVs, (and 252 Atk EVs +Adamant, as mentioned earlier).  Stats are 256 HP, 174 Atk, 111 Def, 110 SDef, 126 Speed.  Boosts make this 256 HP, 696 Atk, 444 Def, 440 SDef, 504 Speed.  For our control case Garchomp we will similarly use EVs designed for damage then balanced durability.  So...EVs would be 252 Atk, 80 SDef, 176 HP.  This gives stats 401 HP, 394 Atk, 226 Def, 226 SDef, and 240 Speed.  To further parallel the setups, also give Garchomp a Choice Band.

Hmm...something I hadn't considered when I started this calculation: Earth deals half damage to Bug.  Well...for the purposes of comparison, I'll just pretend there exists a 100 power dragon move (I could use Outrage or Dragon Claw, but...meh; I'm aiming for generic).

So...with these numbers...Tackle does 127 average to Garchomp (with 25% crit and 95% hit) dealing 32% of the HP.  Garchomp's pretend 100 power dragon move deals...156 average to Caterpie, dealing 61% of the HP.  Before we factor in anything extra, looks like Caterpie looses the slugfest.

So...the extras.  Ingrain and Aqua Ring...don't actually prevent the 2HKO on average (they bring the two turn average down from 312 to 280, which is still more than the 256 HP).  Still losing the slugfest so far.  Really, what seems to make the above video possible is the Double Team, which reduces hit chances against Caterpie to 33%.  (Double Team is banned even in uber play as of right now so...yeah).

So...without DT, all stats boosted Caterpie with Choice Band loses to Garchomp with Choice Band.  But...that's only against each other; maybe Caterpie deals less damage but is tankier?  Let's see...damage against a 300 def opponent...Garchomp=231, Caterpie=96.  Defending against a 300 attack, 100 power opponent...Caterpie=21% taken, Garchomp=26% taken.  So...tankier, slightly, but not untouchably tanky (matched by a Cresselia with zero EVs).  So...backing up for a moment...what if we copied the Youtube guy and put the EVs specifically in defence?  Then it's 16% to physicals (and 34% to special hits).  This is solid physical durability (which is to say, with EVs some pokemon like Cresselia can be more durable to physicals, but they need supporting EVs).  Okay, so that's decent as a physical wall.

So...in conclusion...back when Caterpie could only learn Tackle and String Shot, it would have been NU even if it had an ability that gave it +6 attack, +6 Def, +6 SDef, +6 Speed, Focus Energy, and Aqua Ring at all times.  (And definitely NU if it had auto-Ingrain, due to Ingrain's no-switchout >_>)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SageAcrin on May 16, 2010, 04:59:06 PM
That is an awesome assessment, although by this point I had enough of an intuitive feel for ze Pokeymons to not really be stunned by the outcome.

(Also read the Magic one but I'm so out of it on Magic, and never was in it for the metagame, so that I can't really comment.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on May 17, 2010, 07:41:26 AM
WoW TCG:

Prepping for NACC,  so I figured I might as well talk myself through the process of some decks here, rather then spoil my super secret tech on the correct forums. Please use WoWTCGDB.com to look up the cards if you desire.

HERO: Jonas the Red (Traitor)

Locations
3x The Darkmoon Faire

Quests
4x The Ring of Blood: Brokentoe
4x Darkness Calling
3x Junboxes Needed

Equipment
2x Vengeful Gladiator's Vestments

Master Hero
2x Illidan Stormrage

Abilities
3x Cloak of Shadows
3x Detect Traps
4x Thud
4x Gouge
3x Hateful Strike
3x Carnage
4x Deathblow
4x Surge of Adrenaline
4x Kidney Shot
4x Overkill
3x Gut Shot
3x Raze

A classic deck that didn't really gain much from Scourgewar, I feel. The biggest potential addition is Raze (which allows Jonas to counter rush much earlier, as well as handle Nathanos Blightcaller and Feral Spirit for a bargain), as well as its role as a finishing move, allowing it to further feed Overkill. The lack of it being Instant is a drag, but I think it definitely has a point. Might end up cutting one (since it and Carnage have some overlap), but I think its worth consideration.

Anyhow, the basic deck function is pretty simple. Survive to turn 4/5 (using a combination of Gouge/Thud/Hateful Strike/Raze/Carnage) and then cripple the opposition with Detect Traps (forces the opponent to discard all cards of a chosen type from their hand) or an Overkill (Remove X finishing moves from your graveyard, your opponent discards that many cards, you deal that much damage to opposing heroes and allies and destroy that many equipment). The swing this can generate is absolutely devastating (especially an Overkill landing on a busy board, where, realistically, you can generate a 5+ for one in a lot of circumstances). The quests and resources (minus Junkboxes Needed) allow you to feed Combo/Finishing Moves to the graveyard to make sure you're capable of landing the Overkill when you need it.

The win in the deck is pretty simple. Land a Vestments on Turn 7/8, accelerate out to Illidan (protecting the Vestments with its ability) and win from there.

Overall, the deck is quite solid, possessing a number of answers to a wide array of decktypes (Rush runs into issues with Raze/Carnage/Overkill, Control Decks without interrupts die terribly to Overkill/Detect Traps, Solo runs into massive problems with Thud/Gouge on critical turns). One of the biggest threats to the deck are decks with interrupts that can stop the Vestments or Illidan (such as Warrior or Mage), but neither is an assured loss. Sticking an Overkill or Detect Traps on an early turn can deplete their resources significantly, Junkboxes Needed can help you evaluate threats and an End of Turn Kidney Shot can exhaust their resources, leaving you free to actually play the Vesments, and once they land, things get a lot rougher for both classes). Another major danger, and one that Jonas, unfortunately, is ill-equipped to deal with, are Ongoing Abilities. With no real class based way to remove them, I'm actually wavering a bit on the appropriate answer to them. I'm currently running Cloak of Shadows, believing the Devouring Plague is probably the biggest threat to the deck, but including Shadala instead might be the wiser option. Adam Eternum is a threat as well, but, like Ongoing Abilitiess, is simply one that's very difficult to deal with in a practical manner. Your best bet is to simply keep him under control until later in the game.

All told, Jonas is a very dangerous deck, as the turn 4/5, although easy to identify and predict is, in practice, very difficult to actually deal with, and a landed Vestments/Illidan can often seal the game. Of course, as a classic deck, Jonas is likely to be among the decks to beat at NACC. Still, with its amazingly versatile toolbox of answers and several devastating plays available to it around midgame and lategame, Jonas appears to remain a relative powerhouse in the current field.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 17, 2010, 07:31:56 PM
So...an analysis I've been meaning to do for a while...

Scizor
(http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/scizor-f.png)

The single most used pokemon in the OU metagame; as of the most recent statistics, used on 29% of OU teams (way ahead of the next highest pokemon), and 24% of Uber teams (though entertainingly, in January Scizor's Uber usage percentage was higher than its OU use percentage--24% is a drop).

And yet, this is a pokemon with a BST of 500.  What's going on?  I mean, yes, the typing is good (although there's plenty of Steel/x pokemon with 600 BST) and the stats are decently distributed, but there's obviously more going on here.  Let's investigate.

U-Turn
This can be argued as the best move in the game.  As I mentioned earlier in the topic, I've seen setups that run Baton Pass with no stat raising moves just to scout the opponent's switch-in.  U-Turn does that but with damage.  In fact 70 power isn't a joke (people use Hidden Power) and with typing that hits some notable weaknesses (one of two ways to hit Dark, and hitting Psychic is always good).  And of course, all sorts of random pokemon learn it...Articuno, Celebi, Infernape, Flygon, Raticate, and tons of others....  So...with all that, Scizor must have a fair bit of competition for best U-Turn user...right?

Nope.

U-Turn damage from Adamant with no item vs 250 defence
#1: Scizor: 130
#2: Scyther: 117
#3: Mothim: 106
#4: Ninjask: 101
#5: Vespiqueen: 94
#5: Beedrill: 94
#7: Yanmega: 92
#8: Volbeat: 90
#9: Beautifly: 87
#10: Azelf: 85

Why do I not bold the various bugs in the middle?  Because all except Beedrill and Volbeat take 50% damage from stealth rocks (compared to Scizor's 12.5%)--this doesn't make them unusable as pokemon necessarily, but makes U-Turn spam kinda impractical because it implies switching out.  (As for Beedrill and Volbeat, they have 385 BST and 400 BST respectively--they're not going to see use).  And as for abilities that might boost U-Turn, well...there's Yanmega's Tinted Lens (http://www.smogon.com/dp/abilities/tinted_lens), which admittedly is pretty cool (outdamages Scizor when the target resists bug) so...sure, physically based U-Turn Yanmega poses some damage competition if you're not worried about the 50% stealth rocks damage.... >_>

For all practical purposes, though, if you plan to switch in and U-Turn out a lot, then Scizor is way ahead of the competition in damage (by like...52% damage).

Priority Moves assuming Adamant no-item vs 250 Defence
Absol's Sucker Punch: 148 (NOTE: fails if the opponent doesn't use a damage move)
(Arceus ExtremeSpeed: 140)
Scizor Technician Bullet Punch: 112
(Rayquaza ExtremeSpeed: 110)
Dragonite ExtremeSpeed: 102
Ambipom's Technician Fake Out: 94 (Fake out can only be used the first turn on the battlefield, of course)
Hitmontop's Technician Mach Punch: 90
Azumarill Huge Power Aqua Jet: 83
Mammoswine's Ice Shard: 75
Staraptor's Quick Attack: 70
Banette's Shadow Sneak: 69
Lucario's Vacuum Wave: 69

That's the best damage available for each priority move, near as I can tell.  I'm inclined to treat Sucker Punch as a different style of move (requires proper prediction or it fails completely).  Which means...Scizor's Bullet Punch is the highest damage priority move in OU...and in fact the highest damage priority move in Ubers right now (last I checked they're still not allowing Arceus on Shoddy Ubers due to implementation issues).  And just for the fun of it...Swords Dance + priority moves is generally a strong strategy...and Scizor gets Swords Dance!

Other Stuff

Pursuit is another neat move that messes with switching (kills your opponent while they switch out).  While Scizor's not the best user of it (Tyranitar is) Scizor deals about the same damage as Tyranitar if the opponent stays in thanks to Technician.  (Deals less if the opponent switches, though...for all that switching out is still the more painful move for the opponent).

Roost.  Why not have fantastic healing too?

Swords Dance.  (Excellent stat boosting?  Sure).

Decent fighting moves (Superpower and Brick Break).

Technician Bug Bite (make fun of all those physical bugs using the 80 power X-Scissor.  Technician makes this a 90 power physical move that eats opposing berries).

10 resistances, and one weakness (4x weak, to be fair).

Reasonable stat distribution for what it does (focuses on just one attack stat.  Doesn't put too many stats in speed...which is quite acceptable on a priority user).

EDIT: And as Elfboy points out, Baton Pass (and a lot of durability for a pokemon that has Swords Dance, Agility, and Baton Pass).


To be honest, nothing in this "other stuff" section is all that gamebreaking (particularly on a 500 BST pokemon).  If you removed U-Turn and Bullet Punch from Scizor's list, it would...perhaps still get used due to the other perks outlined here, but I would expect the use percentage to be dramatically lower.  Still, though, perks are perks; they help.

Conclusion

Scizor, while all-around solid in other ways, is just made uniquely good at a couple of tools.  And bafflingly so--for U-Turn, it's not like there aren't high-power bugs that don't take 50% from Stealth Rocks--Armaldo, Heracross, and Pinsir all have almost the attack stat of Scizor, take 12.5%-25% from Stealth Rocks...and don't get U-Turn for some reason (when tons of non-bugs do).  Similarly, with Technician, Scizor has the highest attack stat and highest stat total among pokemon with Technician (the runner up being Scyther, who doesn't get STAB priority, followed by Ambipom who only gets Fake Out for priority, and finally Hitmontop who does get STAB priority, but whom Scizor beats by 37% in attack stat).  So...not the highest overall stats, but despite this the best by a good margin at two very relevant mechanics.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on May 18, 2010, 12:23:07 AM
Yeeeeeeeeeep. You pretty much hit the proverbial nail on the head with Scizor. Powerful U-Turn and Bullet Punch are stupid good, as is the ability to Swords Dance. I recently switched from using a banded one and even I was shocked at how stupid it was. On a related note, how decent is Scizor's coverage potential with the standard set? I'm blanking off-hand.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 18, 2010, 03:51:53 AM
On a related note, how decent is Scizor's coverage potential with the standard set? I'm blanking off-hand.

Standard being Choice Band with U-Turn, Bullet Punch, SuperPower, and Pursuit?

Going down the most used pokemon...

Scizor: 1x
Tyranitar: 4x (2x with priority)
Salamence: 1x
Heatran: 2x
Gyarados: 1x (only with Pursuit)
Latias: 2x
Rotom: 2x
Gengar: 2x
Metagross: 1x
Swampert: 1x
Jirachi: 1x
Infernape: 1x
Lucario: 2x
Starmie: 2x
Blissey: 2x
Skarmory: 1x
Machamp: 1x
Gliscor: 1x
Breloom: 1x
Azelf: 2x
Vaporeon: 1x
Magnezone: 2x
Suicune: 1x
Jolteon: 1x
Bronzong: 1x
Flygon: 1x
Celebi: 4x
Dragonite: 1x
Togekiss: 1x
Aerodactyl: 2x
Kingdra: 1x
Zapdos: 1x (only with Pursuit)
Forretress: 1x
Empoleon: 2x
Electivire: 1x
Weavile: 4x (2x with priority)
Dusknoir: 2x
(And those are all the pokemon above 5% usage)

So...can hit basically anything for neutral.  Would like to hit weakness a bit more often, though, especially on Flying.  (Flying in particular tends to stump Scizor, as it reduces both Fighting and Bug while not being weak to Dark or Steel, and there's lots of Flying pokemon).  A few other common types are just...1x to everything Scizor does (Dragon, Ground) or a mixture of 1x and a resistance or two (Fighting, Water, Electric, Fire, Bug, Poison).

So hmm...can't do better than neutral against 9/17 types.  That's actually not spectacular for four different moves of coverage (in fact, you can actually do better with just two types: Ice+Ground gives better coverage than that.  Go...Mamoswine?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on May 18, 2010, 02:39:45 PM
Don't forget Baton Pass in Scizor's other stuff. He's pretty tough by the standards of pokemon who get both Swords Dance and Baton Pass (Agility as well if you wish), and opponents have to respect what he can do on his own - bringing in a roarer doesn't do much good when it gets its face melted by a Swords Dance Bullet Punch instead of the expected BP. It's far from its best set, particularly in Gen4 (bad synergy with U-Turn), but still a pretty scary option for it to have.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 18, 2010, 06:28:08 PM
So...type chart analysis.  I started wondering...let's say you want to hit weakness on as many mono-types as possible.  Given 1-4 move slots, what do you choose?

I should probably pause to note that this is mostly an academic exercise.  Say you're Rotom trying to hit weakness on Blissey--it's not really worthwhile to pull out Hidden Power Fighting...because STAB Thunderbolt deals the same damage.  (Granted, you might still use HP Fighting to hit 4x weak on Tyranitar, but dual types are more complicated).

So...let's hop into this.

Most type weaknesses hit with one move
5 types: Fighting
5 types: Ground
4 types: Fire
4 types: Ice
4 types: Rock

Most type weaknesses hit with two moves
9 types: Ice+Fighting
9 types: Ice+Ground
8 types: Ground+Fighting
8 types: Ground+Flying
8 types: Ground+Fire
8 types: Ground+Bug
8 types: Ground+Rock
8 types: Fighting+Flying
8 types: Fighting+Rock

Most type weaknesses hit with three moves
12 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting
11 types: Ice+Ground+Flying
11 types: Ice+Fighting+Flying
11 types: Ice+Ground+Fire
11 types: Ice+Ground+Bug
11 types: Ice+Ground+Rock
11 types: Ice+Fighting+Rock
11 types: Ice+Ground+Ghost
11 types: Ice+Fighting+Ghost
11 types: Ice+Ground+Dark
11 types: Ice+Fighting+Dark
11 types: Ice+Fighting+Psychic
11 types: Ground+Fighting+Flying
11 types: Ground+Bug+Rock

Most type weaknesses hit with four moves
14 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Flying
14 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Ghost
14 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Dark
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Fire
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Electric
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Grass
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Psychic
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Rock
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fighting+Bug
13 types: Ice+Ground+Flying+Bug
13 types: Ice+Ground+Flying+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Ground+Flying+Dark
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Flying+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Flying+Dark
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fire+Bug
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fire+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Ground+Fire+Dark
13 types: Ice+Ground+Bug+Rock
13 types: Ice+Ground+Rock+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Ground+Rock+Dark
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Rock+Psychic
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Rock+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Rock+Dark
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Psychic+Ghost
13 types: Ice+Fighting+Psychic+Dark
13 types: Ground+Fighting+Flying+Electric
13 types: Ground+Fighting+Flying+Grass
13 types: Ground+Fighting+Flying+Ghost
13 types: Ground+Fighting+Flying+Dark
13 types: Ground+Bug+Rock+Grass


Note: I did this all by hand, so I'm not 100% sure I've hit all the combinations.  Kinda want to go write some code to verify.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 19, 2010, 12:39:56 AM
Okay girls and boys, it's coding time!  As my thoughts no longer belong to Activision, I see no danger in just openly posting code.  This post won't be that exciting, mind you, as I'm just making sure that my basics are working (functional type chart, functional looping over the elements, etc).  Programming language chosen: Python--it's comfy and easy to wear...and besides I need practice with it as it's becoming relevant.

Code: [Select]
print "hello world"
#        [No,Fr,Wa,El,Gs,Ic,Ft,Po,Gd,Fl,Ps,Bu,Ro,Gh,Dr,Da,St]
Types = [[ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1,.5, 2, 1,.5,.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1,.5,.5, 2, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 2,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2,.5,.5, 1, 1,.5, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 0, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [.5,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1,.5,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1],
         [.5, 2, 1, 1,.5,.5, 2, 0, 2,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5]]
typenames = ["Normal","Fire","Water","Electric","Grass","Ice",
             "Fighting","Poison","Ground","Flying","Psychic","Bug",
             "Rock","Ghost","Dragon","Dark","Steel"]
print len(Types), "and"
for i in range(0,len(Types)):
    weak = 0
    strong = 0
    null = 0   
    for j in range(0,len(Types[i])):
        if( Types[i][j] == 2 ):
            weak = weak+1
        elif( Types[i][j] == 0.5 ):
            strong = strong+1
        elif( Types[i][j] == 0 ):
            null = null+1
        elif( Types[i][j] != 1 ):
            print "ERROR ", i, j, " fails"
    print typenames[i], " has ", weak, " weaknesses ", strong, " defences and ", null, " nulls."

In particular, I wrote out my little type chart by hand, and would be shocked if I didn't typo in the process.  Let's see if it holds up...

Quote
Normal  has  1  weaknesses  0  defences and  1  nulls.
Fire  has  3  weaknesses  5  defences and  0  nulls.
Water  has  2  weaknesses  4  defences and  0  nulls.
Electric  has  1  weaknesses  3  defences and  0  nulls.
Grass  has  5  weaknesses  4  defences and  0  nulls.
Ice  has  4  weaknesses  1  defences and  0  nulls.
Fighting  has  2  weaknesses  3  defences and  0  nulls.
Poison  has  2  weaknesses  4  defences and  0  nulls.
Ground  has  3  weaknesses  2  defences and  1  nulls.
Flying  has  3  weaknesses  3  defences and  1  nulls.
Psychic  has  3  weaknesses  2  defences and  0  nulls.
Bug  has  3  weaknesses  3  defences and  0  nulls.
Rock  has  5  weaknesses  4  defences and  0  nulls.
Ghost  has  2  weaknesses  2  defences and  2  nulls.
Dragon  has  2  weaknesses  4  defences and  0  nulls.
Dark  has  2  weaknesses  2  defences and  1  nulls.
Steel  has  3  weaknesses  11  defences and  1  nulls.

Crosschecking with my post on the previous page, it looks okay so far (and actually brings up an error with the previous post--Steel should be +10 on defence, not +8 >_>).  Let's check offence real quick.

Code: [Select]
    for j in range(0,len(Types[i])):
        if( Types[j][i] == 2 ):
            weak = weak+1
        elif( Types[j][i] == 0.5 ):
            strong = strong+1
        elif( Types[j][i] == 0 ):
            null = null+1
        elif( Types[j][i] != 1 ):
            print "ERROR ", i, j, " fails"
    print typenames[i], " hits ", weak, " weaknesses ", strong, " resistances and ", null, " nulls."

Changing a pretty minimal amount of code (which nevertheless proves to me I should have used a switch statement.  *smacks fingers* bad coding practices) we get...

Quote
Normal  hits  0  weaknesses  2  resistances and  1  nulls.
Fire  hits  4  weaknesses  4  resistances and  0  nulls.
Water  hits  3  weaknesses  3  resistances and  0  nulls.
Electric  hits  2  weaknesses  3  resistances and  1  nulls.
Grass  hits  3  weaknesses  7  resistances and  0  nulls.
Ice  hits  4  weaknesses  4  resistances and  0  nulls.
Fighting  hits  5  weaknesses  4  resistances and  1  nulls.
Poison  hits  1  weaknesses  4  resistances and  1  nulls.
Ground  hits  5  weaknesses  2  resistances and  1  nulls.
Flying  hits  3  weaknesses  3  resistances and  0  nulls.
Psychic  hits  2  weaknesses  2  resistances and  1  nulls.
Bug  hits  3  weaknesses  6  resistances and  0  nulls.
Rock  hits  4  weaknesses  3  resistances and  0  nulls.
Ghost  hits  2  weaknesses  2  resistances and  1  nulls.
Dragon  hits  1  weaknesses  1  resistances and  0  nulls.
Dark  hits  2  weaknesses  3  resistances and  0  nulls.
Steel  hits  2  weaknesses  4  resistances and  0  nulls.

Yeah, okay, I think this type chart is typo free, and ready for some analysis calculations.  (Wait, did I really make no typos?  Shocking!)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on May 19, 2010, 12:52:27 AM
Quote
As my thoughts no longer belong to Activision

Yay!

Generally speaking I'd say it's more important to avoid resistances than hit weaknesses so you can't be forced to switch out, though it does vary on the pokemon (e.g. revenge killers). Also it might be more practical to count not types, but the typings (including any duals) of all OU pokemon (or uber, or whatever).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 19, 2010, 02:41:43 AM
Quote
As my thoughts no longer belong to Activision

Yay!

Generally speaking I'd say it's more important to avoid resistances than hit weaknesses so you can't be forced to switch out, though it does vary on the pokemon (e.g. revenge killers). Also it might be more practical to count not types, but the typings (including any duals) of all OU pokemon (or uber, or whatever).

Yeah, I was thinking I'd do something like that as a second pass.  Like...average up the best multiplier (4, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.25, 0) for the highly frequent type combinations in OU.  And more specifically on the "avoid resistances" point, I was thinking take the reciprocal of the multiplier, so 2 for a resist, and 4 for an R4.  I do have a question on that note: any recommendations for defining 1/0?  Hypothetically there could be a move that hit 49/50 OU pokemon for at least neutral, and got nulled by the 50th pokemon...and offhand that doesn't feel like horrible coverage that averages to infinite resist.  I'm thinking setting 1/0 to 8 or something.

(Or alternatively, if you feel the reciprocal is not the ideal function for the job of "avoid resistances", what would you recommend?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on May 19, 2010, 03:12:56 AM
The general rule of thumb is that you want to maximize neutrality for STAB type(s) and super effective hits for non-STAB types, though with extra consideration for getting super-effective hits on stuff that resist your STABs. This is one reason why mono-Water types with Ice Beam are much more effective than any Ice type. Walls with sufficiently low offensive stats tend to go purely for type coverage since they can't do enough damage unless it's super-effective anyhow.

As far as metagame-specific numbers, X-Act has previously calculated which attacking types did best for each metagame based on the proportional usage for each ladder. The results from the last set of numbers are here:

http://www.smogon.com/smog/issue3/attacking_types

This was eight months ago, but I doubt the general results (i.e. special Fire being the best type in OU) will have changed much - especially in the standard metagame, which is pretty stable.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 19, 2010, 04:42:44 AM
As far as metagame-specific numbers, X-Act has previously calculated which attacking types did best for each metagame based on the proportional usage for each ladder. The results from the last set of numbers are here:

http://www.smogon.com/smog/issue3/attacking_types

This was eight months ago, but I doubt the general results (i.e. special Fire being the best type in OU) will have changed much - especially in the standard metagame, which is pretty stable.

Me calculating something that's already known in Pokemon?  Unpossible!!!!

(Also, what I'm calculating is more about how well multiple types overlap to cover each other, whereas X-Act's work looks to be calculating how well a single type does in the metagame).

Now, it's possible I want to use X-Act's formula...hmm...actually no, I doubt it.  Just skimming quickly, X-Act basically calculates "what percentage of this pokemon's HP do you deal?" and then averages those together weighted by usage statistics.  Problem is, let's say all the Grass pokemon in the format are super frail (hi Breloom) and all the water pokemon are jacked up on HP and defences (hi Suicune).  Fire moves get a big boost from the frail grass pokemon, whereas Grass moves still don't hit Suicune that hard because it's so tanky, so don't get much credit.  If anything, I feel like it should be the other way around (hitting a weakness on a tank should score you more points than horribly overkilling a frail Pokemon).  That said, one step at a time--I'm still a few iterations away from worrying about whether and how I want to factor stats into the equation.



Anyhow, managed to recreate my "how many mono-type weaknesses are available to X moves" scenario above.  Python arrays appear to be more C++ish than I initially expected from a scripting language (in that they basically work like pointers if you assign them to each other, for instance) so you get to see all my band-aid "wait, wtf?  Okay, let's hack around that" moments and some fairly ugly code as a result.  But it's a first pass and I just wanted to make sure the "take the best of X attack moves" calculations actually sorted properly and stuff.

Code: [Select]
print "hello world"
#        [No,Fr,Wa,El,Gs,Ic,Ft,Po,Gd,Fl,Ps,Bu,Ro,Gh,Dr,Da,St]
Types = [[ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1,.5, 2, 1,.5,.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1,.5,.5, 2, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 2,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2,.5,.5, 1, 1,.5, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 0, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [.5,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1,.5,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1],
         [.5, 2, 1, 1,.5,.5, 2, 0, 2,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5]]
typenames = ["Normal","Fire","Water","Electric","Grass","Ice",
             "Fighting","Poison","Ground","Flying","Psychic","Bug",
             "Rock","Ghost","Dragon","Dark","Steel"]
nummoves = 4
moves = []
for i in range(0,nummoves):
    moves.append(nummoves - i - 1)
print moves
tophitters = []
while True:

    total_hit = 0;
    for i in range(0,len(Types)):
        for j in range(0,len(moves)):
            if( Types[i][moves[j]] > 1 ):
                total_hit = total_hit + 1
                break
    #print moves, " deal ", total_hit

    #okay, this is hacky, but I haven't touched python in a while, so...
    #the first number in the array will be how well the moves perform (for
    #sorting purposes) and the next X numbers in the array will be the
    #moves.
    temparray = []
    temparray.append(total_hit)
    for i in range(0,len(moves)):
        temparray.append(moves[i])
    tophitters.append(temparray)
    if(len(tophitters) > 32):
        tophitters.sort()
        tophitters.pop(0)

    #increment the move list; this is a basic n choose r construction
    #we move the first variable all the way to the top, and then we
    #increment the second variable and reset the first variable to
    #be just to the right of the second (avoids repeats).
    shouldexit = True
    for i in range(0,len(moves)):
        if( moves[i] < 16-i ): #17 types, but array indexing means we don't want to increment if we're at 16
            moves[i] = moves[i]+1
            shouldexit = False;
            for j in range(0, i):
                moves[j] = moves[i]+(i-j)
            break
    if shouldexit:
        break
    #print moves
    #Right, remember there's nothing special going on in the above code,
    #just iterating over all possible combinations of X different moves,
    #where X is nummoves.  The above code is just dealing with the fact
    #that we don't know X, so can't just write 4 nested for loops.

print "WE MADE IT"
print tophitters

tophitters.sort()
for i in range(0,len(tophitters)):
    #translate from array indices into english.  Again, remember we don't
    #know the number of moves, hence the for loop.
    englishnames = []
    for j in range(1,len(tophitters[i])):
        englishnames.append(typenames[tophitters[i][j]])
        
    #remember the hacky I mentioned above?  The first number in the array
    #is how well this move combination did, and not actually a move.
    #Yeah, I know: cringeworthy code.
    print tophitters[i][0], ": ", englishnames
    

And confirming with my previous hand-calculations, it does work:

Code: [Select]
6 :  ['Dark', 'Fire']
6 :  ['Dark', 'Ice']
6 :  ['Dark', 'Rock']
6 :  ['Steel', 'Ice']
6 :  ['Steel', 'Ground']
7 :  ['Water', 'Fire']
7 :  ['Grass', 'Fire']
7 :  ['Ice', 'Fire']
7 :  ['Fighting', 'Fire']
7 :  ['Fighting', 'Water']
7 :  ['Fighting', 'Electric']
7 :  ['Fighting', 'Grass']
7 :  ['Ground', 'Electric']
7 :  ['Ground', 'Grass']
7 :  ['Psychic', 'Fighting']
7 :  ['Bug', 'Fighting']
7 :  ['Rock', 'Grass']
7 :  ['Rock', 'Ice']
7 :  ['Rock', 'Bug']
7 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting']
7 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground']
7 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting']
7 :  ['Dark', 'Ground']
8 :  ['Ground', 'Fire']
8 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting']
8 :  ['Flying', 'Fighting']
8 :  ['Flying', 'Ground']
8 :  ['Bug', 'Ground']
8 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting']
8 :  ['Rock', 'Ground']
9 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice']
9 :  ['Ground', 'Ice']


10 :  ['Rock', 'Flying', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Rock', 'Flying', 'Ground']
10 :  ['Rock', 'Psychic', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Grass']
10 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Fire']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Flying', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Flying', 'Ground']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Ground']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Fire']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Flying', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Flying', 'Ground']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Fighting']
10 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Ground']
10 :  ['Steel', 'Ground', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
11 :  ['Flying', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Flying', 'Ground', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting']
11 :  ['Psychic', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Bug', 'Ground', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Rock', 'Ground', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Ground']
11 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
11 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice']
12 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']



12 :  ['Steel', 'Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice']
12 :  ['Steel', 'Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
13 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Electric']
13 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Grass']
13 :  ['Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Electric']
13 :  ['Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Grass']
13 :  ['Psychic', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Bug', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
13 :  ['Bug', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Bug', 'Flying', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Rock', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Rock', 'Psychic', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Ground', 'Grass']
13 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Flying', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Flying', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Psychic', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Flying', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Flying', 'Ground', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Psychic', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
13 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Ground', 'Ice']
14 :  ['Flying', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
14 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
14 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']

Next up, more sophisticated calculations than "got super effective?"
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 19, 2010, 10:39:58 PM
Okay, first things first I need an OU typechart, and cleanest way to get it is just to calculate it.  Abilities like Flash Fire and Volt Absorb I treated the same way as levitate for type purposes (just nullify the move) seeing as walled is walled.  Usually there was an obvious most common ability in OU, so I used that, though for even usage splits, I just took an average.  Anyhow, the code to get the typechart (types and abilities entered by hand, so hypothetically could have errors).

Code: [Select]
#        [No,Fr,Wa,El,Gs,Ic,Ft,Po,Gd,Fl,Ps,Bu,Ro,Gh,Dr,Da,St]
Types = [[ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1,.5, 2, 1,.5,.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1,.5,.5, 2, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5],
         [ 1, 2,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2,.5,.5, 1, 1,.5, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5,.5, 2, 1, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 0, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1, 2, 1, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1,.5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1],
         [.5,.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2,.5, 2,.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2],
         [ 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0,.5, 1, 1, 1,.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1],
         [ 1,.5,.5,.5,.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1],
         [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1,.5, 1,.5, 1],
         [.5, 2, 1, 1,.5,.5, 2, 0, 2,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5,.5]]

typenames = ["Normal","Fire","Water","Electric","Grass","Ice",
             "Fighting","Poison","Ground","Flying","Psychic","Bug",
             "Rock","Ghost","Dragon","Dark","Steel"]

OUPokedex = [["Scizor","Bug","Steel","",28.69],
["Tyranitar","Rock","Dark","",21.51],
["Salamence","Flying","Dragon","",20.91],
["Heatran","Fire","Steel","Flash Fire",19.49],
["Gyarados","Water","Flying","",17.35],
["Latias","Psychic","Dragon","Levitate",16.9],
["Gengar","Poison","Ghost","Levitate",15.97],
["Metagross","Psychic","Steel","",15.55],
["Swampert","Water","Ground","",15.27],
["Jirachi","Psychic","Steel","",15.2],
["Infernape","Fire","Fighting","",14.15],
["Lucario","Fighting","Steel","",13.47],
["Starmie","Water","Psychic","",12.51],
["Blissey","Normal","","",12.23],
["Skarmory","Flying","Steel","",11.13],
["Machamp","Fighting","","",10.49],
["Gliscor","Ground","Flying","",10.4],
["Breloom","Grass","Fighting","",10.33],
["Azelf","Psychic","","Levitate",9.89],
["Vaporeon","Water","","Water Absorb",9.76],
["Rotom-h","Electric","Ghost","Levitate",9.53],
["Magnezone","Electric","Steel","",9.1],
["Suicune","Water","","",8.11],
["Jolteon","Electric","","Volt Absorb",7.55],
["Bronzong","Psychic","Steel","Levitate",7.34],
["Flygon","Ground","Dragon","Levitate",7.31],
["Celebi","Grass","Psychic","",7.23],
["Dragonite","Flying","Dragon","",7.12],
["Togekiss","Normal","Flying","",7.11],
["Aerodactyl","Flying","Rock","",7.05],
["Kingdra","Water","Dragon","",6.91],
["Zapdos","Electric","Flying","",6.86],
["Forretress","Bug","Steel","",6.69],
["Empoleon","Water","Steel","",6.25],
["Electivire","Electric","","Motor Drive",6.14],
["Weavile","Ice","Dark","",5.69],
["Dusknoir","Ghost","","",5.22],
["Snorlax","Normal","","",4.93],
["Mamoswine","Ice","Ground","",4.93],
["Ninjask","Bug","Flying","",4.8],
["Hippowdon","Ground","","",4.49],
["Tentacruel","Water","Poison","",4.3],
["Roserade","Grass","Poison","",4.04],
["Smeargle","Normal","","",3.96],
["Heracross","Fighting","Bug","",3.79],
["Umbreon","Dark","","",3.6],
["Porygonz","Normal","","",3.16],
["Alakazam","Psychic","","",3.01],
["Rotom-w","Electric","Ghost","Levitate",2.86],
["Rotom-c","Electric","Ghost","Levitate",2.72],
["Abomasnow","Grass","Ice","",2.7],
["Ludicolo","Water","Grass","",2.58],
["Yanmega","Flying","Bug","",2.43],
["Cresselia","Psychic","","Levitate",2.35],
["Crobat","Poison","Flying","",2.33],
["Gallade","Fighting","Psychic","",2.29],
["Arcanine","Fire","","(50% usage) Flash Fire",2.27],
["Dugtrio","Ground","","",2.25],
["Rhyperior","Ground","Rock","Solid Rock",2.24],
["Ambipom","Normal","","",2.23],
["Milotic","Water","","",2.23],
["Froslass","Ice","Ghost","",2.13],
["Clefable","Normal","","",2.05],
["Porygon2","Normal","","",2.04],
["Charizard","Fire","Flying","",1.97],
["Uxie","Psychic","","Levitate",1.9],
["Kabutops","Water","Rock","",1.82],
["Donphan","Ground","","",1.79],
["Slowbro","Water","Psychic","",1.69],
["Honchkrow","Flying","Dark","",1.69],
["Walrein","Water","Ice","",1.63],
["Spiritomb","Ghost","Dark","",1.61],
["Registeel","Steel","","",1.57],
["Blastoise","Water","","",1.55],
["Venusaur","Grass","Poison","",1.49],
["Sceptile","Grass","","",1.47],
["Weezing","Poison","","Levitate",1.41],
["Mismagius","Ghost","","Levitate",1.37],
["Shuckle","Bug","Rock","",1.32],
["Hitmontop","Fighting","","",1.29],
["Claydol","Ground","Psychic","Levitate",1.28],
["Lanturn","Water","Electric","Volt Absorb",1.27],
["Feraligatr","Water","","",1.25],
["Cradily","Grass","Rock","",1.25],
["Electrode","Electric","","",1.23],
["Houndoom","Fire","Dark","Flash Fire",1.22],
["Shaymin","Grass","","",1.2],
["Typhlosion","Fire","","",1.18],
["Marowak","Ground","","",1.12],
["Blaziken","Fire","Fighting","",1.1],
["Raikou","Electric","","",1.1],
["Espeon","Psychic","","",1.05],
["Azumarill","Water","","",1.03],
["Staraptor","Normal","Flying","",1.02],
["Steelix","Ground","Steel","",1.01],
["Miltank","Normal","","",0.99],
["Absol","Dark","","",0.96],
["Aggron","Rock","Steel","",0.88],
["Rotom-f","Electric","Ghost","Levitate",0.88],
["Hariyama","Fighting","","(50% usage) Thick Fat",0.86],
["Tangrowth","Grass","","",0.85],
["Slowking","Water","Psychic","",0.84],
["Drapion","Poison","Dark","",0.84],
["Toxicroak","Poison","Fighting","Dry Skin",0.81],
["Ursaring","Normal","","",0.81],
["Gardevoir","Psychic","","",0.78],
["Drifblim","Flying","Ghost","",0.77],
["Torterra","Grass","Ground","",0.77],
["Cacturne","Grass","Dark","",0.77],
["Glaceon","Ice","","",0.76],
["Medicham","Fighting","Psychic","",0.75],
["Magmortar","Fire","","",0.75],
["Leafeon","Grass","","",0.74],
["Swellow","Normal","Flying","",0.73],
["Rampardos","Rock","","",0.72],
["Mr.Mime","Psychic","","",0.71],
["Ninetales","Fire","","Flash Fire",0.69],
["Nidoking","Poison","Ground","",0.69],
["Slaking","Normal","","",0.68],
["Lapras","Water","Ice","Water Absorb",0.68],
["Qwilfish","Water","Poison","",0.66],
["Exeggutor","Grass","Psychic","",0.65],
["Poliwrath","Water","Fighting","Water Absorb",0.62],
["Jumpluff","Grass","Flying","",0.62],
["Cloyster","Water","Ice","",0.6],
["Floatzel","Water","","",0.6],
["Shedinja","Bug","Ghost","Wonder Guard",0.6],
["Pikachu","Electric","","",0.58]]

def process_ability( ability, list ):
    if( ability == "" ):
        return list
    elif( ability == "Flash Fire" ):
        list[typenames.index("Fire")] = 0
    elif( ability == "Levitate" ):
        list[typenames.index("Ground")] = 0
    elif( ability == "Water Absorb" ):
        list[typenames.index("Water")] = 0
    elif( ability == "Volt Absorb" ):
        list[typenames.index("Electric")] = 0
    elif( ability == "Motor Drive" ):
        list[typenames.index("Electric")] = 0
    elif( ability == "(50% usage) Flash Fire" ):
        list[typenames.index("Fire")] *= 0.5
    elif( ability == "(50% usage) Thick Fat" ):
        list[typenames.index("Fire")] *= 0.75
        list[typenames.index("Ice")] *= 0.75
    elif( ability == "Dry Skin" ):
        list[typenames.index("Fire")] *= 1.25
        list[typenames.index("Water")] = 0
    elif( ability == "Solid Rock" ):
        for i in range(0,len(list)):
            if( list[i] > 1 ):
                list[i] = 0.75*list[i]
    elif( ability == "Wonder Guard" ):
        for i in range(0,len(list)):
            if( list[i] < 2 ):
                list[i] = 0
    else:
        print "ERROR, no such ability"
    return list


OUTypechart = []



for pok in range(0,len(OUPokedex)):
    thispokemon = []
    type1 = typenames.index(OUPokedex[pok][1])
    type2 = -1
    if( OUPokedex[pok][2] != "" ):
        type2 = typenames.index(OUPokedex[pok][2])
    for i in range(0,len(Types)):
        thispokemon.append(Types[type1][i])
        if( type2 != -1 ):
            thispokemon[i] *= Types[type2][i]
    thispokemon = process_ability( OUPokedex[pok][3], thispokemon )
   
    thispokemon.append(OUPokedex[pok][4])
    OUTypechart.append(thispokemon)
       
for i in range (0, len(OUTypechart) ):
    print OUPokedex[i][0], OUTypechart[i]

And checking that it works, here's the result:

Code: [Select]
Scizor [0.5, 4, 1, 1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 28.690000000000001]
Tyranitar [0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 4, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 0, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 2, 21.510000000000002]
Salamence [1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0.25, 4, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 20.91]
Heatran [0.5, 0, 2, 1, 0.25, 0.25, 2, 0, 4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 19.489999999999998]
Gyarados [1, 0.5, 0.5, 4, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 17.350000000000001]
Latias [1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 16.899999999999999]
Gengar [0, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.0, 0.25, 0, 1, 2, 0.25, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 15.970000000000001]
Metagross [0.5, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 2, 0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 15.550000000000001]
Swampert [1, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 4, 1.0, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 15.27]
Jirachi [0.5, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 2, 0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 15.199999999999999]
Infernape [1, 0.5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0.25, 1.0, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 14.15]
Lucario [0.5, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0, 2, 1.0, 1.0, 0.25, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5, 13.470000000000001]
Starmie [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 12.51]
Blissey [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 12.23]
Skarmory [0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.25, 1.0, 1.0, 0, 0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 11.130000000000001]
Machamp [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 10.49]
Gliscor [1, 1, 2, 0, 1.0, 4, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 10.4]
Breloom [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 4, 2, 1.0, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 10.33]
Azelf [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 9.8900000000000006]
Vaporeon [1, 0.5, 0, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 9.7599999999999998]
Rotom-h [0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 9.5299999999999994]
Magnezone [0.5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0, 4, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 9.0999999999999996]
Suicune [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 8.1099999999999994]
Jolteon [1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 7.5499999999999998]
Bronzong [0.5, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 0, 0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 7.3399999999999999]
Flygon [1, 0.5, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4, 1, 0.5, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 7.3099999999999996]
Celebi [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 4, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 7.2300000000000004]
Dragonite [1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0.25, 4, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 7.1200000000000001]
Togekiss [1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 7.1100000000000003]
Aerodactyl [0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 1.0, 2, 1.0, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 7.0499999999999998]
Kingdra [1, 0.25, 0.25, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0.5, 6.9100000000000001]
Zapdos [1, 1, 1, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 1, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 6.8600000000000003]
Forretress [0.5, 4, 1, 1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 6.6900000000000004]
Empoleon [0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 0.25, 2, 0, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 6.25]
Electivire [1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 6.1399999999999997]
Weavile [1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 2, 5.6900000000000004]
Dusknoir [0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 5.2199999999999998]
Snorlax [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 4.9299999999999997]
Mamoswine [1, 2, 2, 0, 2, 1.0, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4.9299999999999997]
Ninjask [1, 2, 1, 2, 0.25, 2, 0.25, 1, 0.0, 2, 1, 0.5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4.7999999999999998]
Hippowdon [1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4.4900000000000002]
Tentacruel [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 4.2999999999999998]
Roserade [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2, 2, 1.0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4.04]
Smeargle [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 3.96]
Heracross [1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 4, 2, 0.5, 1.0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 3.79]
Umbreon [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 3.6000000000000001]
Porygonz [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 3.1600000000000001]
Alakazam [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3.0099999999999998]
Rotom-w [0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2.8599999999999999]
Rotom-c [0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2.7200000000000002]
Abomasnow [1, 4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 2, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2.7000000000000002]
Ludicolo [1, 1.0, 0.25, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2.5800000000000001]
Yanmega [1, 2, 1, 2, 0.25, 2, 0.25, 1, 0.0, 2, 1, 0.5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2.4300000000000002]
Cresselia [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2.3500000000000001]
Crobat [1, 1, 1, 2, 0.25, 2, 0.25, 0.5, 0, 1, 2, 0.25, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2.3300000000000001]
Gallade [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 1, 1.0, 1, 2.29]
Arcanine [1, 0.25, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2.27]
Dugtrio [1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2.25]
Rhyperior [0.5, 0.5, 3.0, 0, 3.0, 1.5, 1.5, 0.25, 1.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 2.2400000000000002]
Ambipom [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2.23]
Milotic [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2.23]
Froslass [0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2.1299999999999999]
Clefable [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2.0499999999999998]
Porygon2 [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2.04]
Charizard [1, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.25, 1.0, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.25, 4, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.97]
Uxie [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.8999999999999999]
Kabutops [0.5, 0.25, 1.0, 2, 4, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.0, 1.8200000000000001]
Donphan [1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.79]
Slowbro [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 1.6899999999999999]
Honchkrow [1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1.0, 2, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 1.6899999999999999]
Walrein [1, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.25, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.0, 1.6299999999999999]
Spiritomb [0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 1.0, 1, 1.0, 1, 1.0, 1, 1.6100000000000001]
Registeel [0.5, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.5700000000000001]
Blastoise [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.55]
Venusaur [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2, 2, 1.0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.49]
Sceptile [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.47]
Weezing [1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.4099999999999999]
Mismagius [0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.3700000000000001]
Shuckle [0.5, 1.0, 2, 1, 1.0, 1, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1.3200000000000001]
Hitmontop [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1.29]
Claydol [1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 1, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.28]
Lanturn [1, 0.5, 0.5, 0, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.25, 1.27]
Feraligatr [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.25]
Cradily [0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 1.0, 2, 2, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1.25]
Electrode [1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.23]
Houndoom [1, 0, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1.0, 2, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.22]
Shaymin [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.2]
Typhlosion [1, 0.5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.1799999999999999]
Marowak [1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1200000000000001]
Blaziken [1, 0.5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0.25, 1.0, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1.1000000000000001]
Raikou [1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.1000000000000001]
Espeon [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1.05]
Azumarill [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1.03]
Staraptor [1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1.02]
Steelix [0.5, 2, 2, 0, 1.0, 1.0, 2, 0.0, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.01]
Miltank [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.98999999999999999]
Absol [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.95999999999999996]
Aggron [0.25, 1.0, 2, 1, 1.0, 0.5, 4, 0.0, 4, 0.25, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 0.88]
Rotom-f [0, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 0, 0.5, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 0.88]
Hariyama [1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.85999999999999999]
Tangrowth [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.84999999999999998]
Slowking [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 0.83999999999999997]
Drapion [1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 1, 0, 1.0, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.83999999999999997]
Toxicroak [1, 1.25, 0, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 4, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.81000000000000005]
Ursaring [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.81000000000000005]
Gardevoir [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0.78000000000000003]
Drifblim [0, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.0, 0.5, 0, 1, 1, 0.25, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0.77000000000000002]
Torterra [1, 2, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4, 1, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.77000000000000002]
Cacturne [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 2, 0.5, 2, 0, 4, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 1, 0.77000000000000002]
Glaceon [1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.76000000000000001]
Medicham [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1.0, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 1, 1.0, 1, 0.75]
Magmortar [1, 0.5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.75]
Leafeon [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.73999999999999999]
Swellow [1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.72999999999999998]
Rampardos [0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.71999999999999997]
Mr.Mime [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0.70999999999999996]
Ninetales [1, 0, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0.5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.68999999999999995]
Nidoking [1, 1, 2, 0, 1.0, 2, 0.5, 0.25, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.68999999999999995]
Slaking [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.68000000000000005]
Lapras [1, 1.0, 0, 2, 2, 0.25, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.0, 0.68000000000000005]
Qwilfish [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.66000000000000003]
Exeggutor [1, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 2, 0.5, 4, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0.65000000000000002]
Poliwrath [1, 0.5, 0, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.62]
Jumpluff [1, 2, 0.5, 1.0, 0.25, 4, 0.5, 2, 0.0, 2, 1, 1.0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.62]
Cloyster [1, 1.0, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.25, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.0, 0.59999999999999998]
Floatzel [1, 0.5, 0.5, 2, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.59999999999999998]
Shedinja [0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0.59999999999999998]
Pikachu [1, 1, 1, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0.5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.5, 0.57999999999999996]

No mistakes jump out at me, anyhow.  So...on to actually calculating results....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 20, 2010, 12:05:02 AM
Okay, actual calculation time.  First, checking the results by doing something very close to what X-Act did.  (I.e. average the damage over all opponents, use only one move).  (Note if you're compiling, this continues precisely where the last python script left off, and uses the computed OUTypechart).

Code: [Select]
def attack_score( opponent, attacktype ):
    #this function references the global OUTypechart
    #
    #EDIT ME!  This function is designed to be edited.  Want to put more
    #weight on avoiding resistance than hitting weakness so that you don't?
    #get walled?  Try inverting the damage.  Want to do the calculation
    #assuming you have Ice STAB?
    #If( attacktype is ice ) multiply result by 1.5
    #Want to calculate assuming the Tinted Lens ability?  Just multiply the
    #appropriate moves by 2.
    #
    #This function returns a number.  Higher numbers will be chosen over
    #lower numbers when the pokemon picks its best damage.

    #Here's the simplest version of this function, just maximize your
    #damage (doesn't stop you from being walled, but will get a lot of
    #weaknesses).
    #
    return OUTypechart[opponent][attacktype]

nummoves = 1
moves = []
for i in range(0,nummoves):
    moves.append(nummoves - i - 1)
#print moves
tophitters = []
while True:

    total_percentage = 0;
    for i in range(0,len(OUTypechart)):
        max_output = -9999
        for j in range(0,len(moves)):
            max_output = max( max_output, attack_score( i, moves[j] ) )
        total_percentage += max_output * OUTypechart[i][len(Types)]
    #print moves, " deal ", total_hit

    #okay, this is hacky, but I haven't touched python in a while, so...
    #the first number in the array will be how well the moves perform (for
    #sorting purposes) and the next X numbers in the array will be the
    #moves.
    temparray = []
    temparray.append(total_percentage/575) #575 just because Shoddy percentages add up to 600% (6 pokes per team)
    for i in range(0,len(moves)):
        temparray.append(moves[i])
    tophitters.append(temparray)
    if(len(tophitters) > 32):
        tophitters.sort()
        tophitters.pop(0)

    #increment the move list; this is a basic n choose r construction
    #we move the first variable all the way to the top, and then we
    #increment the second variable and reset the first variable to
    #be just to the right of the second (avoids repeats).
    shouldexit = True
    for i in range(0,len(moves)):
        if( moves[i] < 16-i ): #17 types, but array indexing means we don't want to increment if we're at 16
            moves[i] = moves[i]+1
            shouldexit = False;
            for j in range(0, i):
                moves[j] = moves[i]+(i-j)
            break
    if shouldexit:
        break
    #print moves
    #Right, remember there's nothing special going on in the above code,
    #just iterating over all possible combinations of X different moves,
    #where X is nummoves.  The above code is just dealing with the fact
    #that we don't know X, so can't just write 4 nested for loops.

print "WE MADE IT"
print tophitters

tophitters.sort()
for i in range(0,len(tophitters)):
    #translate from array indices into english.  Again, remember we don't
    #know the number of moves, hence the for loop.
    englishnames = []
    for j in range(1,len(tophitters[i])):
        englishnames.append(typenames[tophitters[i][j]])
        
    #remember the hacky I mentioned above?  The first number in the array
    #is how well this move combination did, and not actually a move.
    #Yeah, I know: cringeworthy code.
    print tophitters[i][0], ": ", englishnames
    

And the results?

Code: [Select]
0.680495652174 :  ['Poison']
0.769773913043 :  ['Normal']
0.815291304348 :  ['Steel']
0.884752173913 :  ['Psychic']
0.93302173913 :  ['Bug']
0.943917391304 :  ['Grass']
0.979139130435 :  ['Dragon']
0.990086956522 :  ['Ghost']
1.01332173913 :  ['Ground']
1.01410869565 :  ['Dark']
1.02669130435 :  ['Water']
1.03828695652 :  ['Flying']
1.06770434783 :  ['Electric']
1.08676521739 :  ['Rock']
1.11244347826 :  ['Fighting']
1.21026521739 :  ['Fire']
1.21363913043 :  ['Ice']

Order is...definitely a few types have moved up or down by 1-3 places, but similar.  The gap between Poison and the best type is also about the same (gap's widened by 7%).  Yeah, looks like I'm functional.

Okay, let's start using this now.  Modifying the attack_score function for minimized walling...

Code: [Select]
   #This is a first pass at minimizing walling; just inverts the damage
    #taking 8 for a null damage result (worse than a W4)
    if( OUTypechart[opponent][attacktype] > 0 ):
        return ((-1)/float(OUTypechart[opponent][attacktype]))
    else:
        return (-8)

For one attack we get...

Quote
-3.17783623188 :  ['Ground']
-2.94306086957 :  ['Poison']
-1.86510869565 :  ['Electric']
-1.85143043478 :  ['Psychic']
-1.83008695652 :  ['Normal']
-1.78062463768 :  ['Grass']
-1.70187536232 :  ['Fighting']
-1.66867391304 :  ['Bug']
-1.6484173913 :  ['Ghost']
-1.58449275362 :  ['Steel']
-1.46804289855 :  ['Fire']
-1.34724637681 :  ['Water']
-1.3165 :  ['Ice']
-1.26288695652 :  ['Dark']
-1.2364173913 :  ['Flying']
-1.18893043478 :  ['Dragon']
-1.18579130435 :  ['Rock']

(Shocking pokemon strategy: if you're going to choose only one attack move and don't want to get walled, don't choose ground >_>).

Anyhow, moving on to the more interesting ones...minimizing walling on two moves:

Quote
-0.891043478261 :  ['Flying', 'Fire']
-0.888079710145 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground']
-0.884741449275 :  ['Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.87887826087 :  ['Bug', 'Electric']
-0.877905797101 :  ['Fighting', 'Electric']
-0.871557971014 :  ['Ground', 'Fire']
-0.87154057971 :  ['Flying', 'Ground']
-0.871115942029 :  ['Dragon', 'Water']
-0.86772173913 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock']
-0.862230434783 :  ['Dragon', 'Electric']
-0.855515942029 :  ['Flying', 'Water']
-0.854715942029 :  ['Rock', 'Water']
-0.85452115942 :  ['Dark', 'Fire']
-0.849986956522 :  ['Dark', 'Electric']
-0.848724637681 :  ['Dark', 'Water']
-0.836644927536 :  ['Dragon', 'Ground']
-0.833692753623 :  ['Flying', 'Fighting']
-0.82937826087 :  ['Ghost', 'Electric']
-0.825628985507 :  ['Ghost', 'Water']
-0.823779130435 :  ['Ghost', 'Fire']
-0.822005797101 :  ['Dragon', 'Fighting']
-0.816809565217 :  ['Electric', 'Fire']
-0.815657391304 :  ['Dragon', 'Fire']
-0.80741884058 :  ['Dark', 'Ground']
-0.805688405797 :  ['Rock', 'Ground']
-0.799808115942 :  ['Rock', 'Fire']
-0.794475362319 :  ['Ice', 'Electric']
-0.79251884058 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting']
-0.784710144928 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting']
-0.774066666667 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting']
-0.771053623188 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.726692753623 :  ['Ground', 'Ice']

Turns out the best way by far to be unwallable with two types (if this function is weighting things right), is to pick good offence (Mammoswine!)  Ghost combines nicely with Fighting seeing as fighting hits everything that resists Ghost.  And past that, there's a lot of "move that's not resisted by much like Dragon, Ghost, or Dark" combined with "move that hits Steel like Fighting, Fire, Ground, Water, or Electric."

Three types!

Quote
-0.684095072464 :  ['Rock', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.683410144928 :  ['Dragon', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.680873333333 :  ['Rock', 'Bug', 'Fire']
-0.679353043478 :  ['Bug', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.677112463768 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Fire']
-0.675884057971 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Electric']
-0.675592173913 :  ['Dark', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.67474057971 :  ['Rock', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.674507246377 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice', 'Grass']
-0.672948695652 :  ['Ghost', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.672892173913 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Fire']
-0.669653623188 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Ground']
-0.668834202899 :  ['Dark', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.666462318841 :  ['Bug', 'Ground', 'Ice']
-0.665290724638 :  ['Rock', 'Grass', 'Fire']
-0.665112463768 :  ['Ghost', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.663971884058 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.66368057971 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.662920289855 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Grass']
-0.659284057971 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice', 'Electric']
-0.659166666667 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.658019710145 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.656523188406 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.655376231884 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.654644927536 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.654597101449 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.652001449275 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.650837101449 :  ['Ice', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.642427536232 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Electric']
-0.640527536232 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice']
-0.637884057971 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice']
-0.625327536232 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']

Suddenly there's a whole lot of Fire (where Fire did not stand out at two types).  I guess it's getting harder to ignore that W4 on the most-used pokemon.

Aand...four types:

Quote
-0.596116811594 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting', 'Grass', 'Fire']
-0.595638550725 :  ['Ghost', 'Ice', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.595568115942 :  ['Rock', 'Ground', 'Grass', 'Fire']
-0.595551594203 :  ['Ghost', 'Electric', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.595341449275 :  ['Ghost', 'Ice', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.592949275362 :  ['Flying', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.592773333333 :  ['Ice', 'Electric', 'Water', 'Fire']
-0.590163188406 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.589833333333 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Grass']
-0.588571014493 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.587519710145 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.587189855072 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Grass']
-0.585927536232 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.585627536232 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Electric']
-0.585157971014 :  ['Bug', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.584150144928 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.582497101449 :  ['Dark', 'Rock', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.582105797101 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Electric']
-0.581506666667 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Fighting', 'Fire']
-0.581197101449 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.579853623188 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock', 'Ground', 'Fire']
-0.579462318841 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Electric']
-0.578553623188 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice']
-0.57824057971 :  ['Ground', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.571129855072 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice', 'Grass', 'Fire']
-0.565842028986 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Grass', 'Fire']
-0.565584927536 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.565467536232 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.563505797101 :  ['Ground', 'Ice', 'Electric', 'Fire']
-0.562824057971 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.561605797101 :  ['Dark', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']
-0.558962318841 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground', 'Ice', 'Fire']

Hmm...well plausible stuff so far, anyhow.  I do wonder if the reciprocal is the best function to model "minimize walling" however.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 20, 2010, 03:22:53 AM
Okay, taking the "minimize weaknesses" statement utterly 100% literally to see how that changes things...

Code: [Select]
   #This is a more explicit "minimize weaknesses" calculation
    if( OUTypechart[opponent][attacktype] > 0.5 ):
        return 1
    else:
        return 0

One attack type:

Quote
0.496069565217 :  ['Steel']
0.509391304348 :  ['Grass']
0.516817391304 :  ['Bug']
0.518382608696 :  ['Poison']
0.609495652174 :  ['Psychic']
0.613843478261 :  ['Ground']
0.620347826087 :  ['Normal']
0.623113043478 :  ['Fire']
0.637773913043 :  ['Ice']
0.648991304348 :  ['Fighting']
0.686330434783 :  ['Dark']
0.688939130435 :  ['Ghost']
0.714886956522 :  ['Flying']
0.716156521739 :  ['Water']
0.740713043478 :  ['Electric']
0.757686956522 :  ['Dragon']
0.76107826087 :  ['Rock']

Rock and Dragon are still on top.  Types that were nulled tend to gain (Poison, Ground, Fighting, Water, Electric).

Two attack types:

Quote
0.915530434783 :  ['Flying', 'Electric']
0.919965217391 :  ['Fighting', 'Normal']
0.921130434783 :  ['Electric', 'Fire']
0.922469565217 :  ['Ghost', 'Fire']
0.930173913043 :  ['Bug', 'Electric']
0.930608695652 :  ['Psychic', 'Electric']
0.939756521739 :  ['Ghost', 'Rock']
0.943391304348 :  ['Electric', 'Normal']
0.947704347826 :  ['Dark', 'Ground']
0.948886956522 :  ['Rock', 'Ground']
0.951652173913 :  ['Rock', 'Fire']
0.956156521739 :  ['Flying', 'Fighting']
0.956365217391 :  ['Fighting', 'Ice']
0.956852173913 :  ['Ghost', 'Ground']
0.959008695652 :  ['Dark', 'Electric']
0.962 :  ['Dragon', 'Fire']
0.962730434783 :  ['Dragon', 'Ground']
0.963234782609 :  ['Dark', 'Water']
0.964573913043 :  ['Rock', 'Water']
0.973947826087 :  ['Poison', 'Water']
0.976817391304 :  ['Ice', 'Electric']
0.976973913043 :  ['Ghost', 'Electric']
0.977269565217 :  ['Dragon', 'Electric']
0.982086956522 :  ['Ground', 'Ice']
0.982817391304 :  ['Flying', 'Water']
0.983686956522 :  ['Ghost', 'Water']
0.983982608696 :  ['Water', 'Normal']
0.983982608696 :  ['Dragon', 'Water']
0.985773913043 :  ['Rock', 'Fighting']
0.987895652174 :  ['Dark', 'Fighting']
0.994852173913 :  ['Dragon', 'Fighting']
0.995895652174 :  ['Ghost', 'Fighting']

All of these combos hit 92% or more pokemon for at least neutral.  Ghost/Fighting actually hits everything for at least neutral (the only things ghost doesn't hit, fighting hits super effective, so even with a dual type that's at least neutral).  And if you're wondering "wait, doesn't the same apply to Dragon Fighting?" the answer is...it would have...except Shedinja'd.

(And there's not much point in going above two moves--with 3 moves it's actually quite easy to hit 100% of opponents for at least neutral).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 21, 2010, 02:05:28 AM
Okay, leaving behind for the moment the pokemon code (I expect I'll use it as an analysis tool to puzzle out movepool options for, say, Rotom), I'm going to switch gears for the moment, and talk about game design as pertaining to competitive metagames, and to some degree the current Magic metagame.


(http://gatherer.wizards.com/Handlers/Image.ashx?multiverseid=174917&type=card)

To start off, I'm going to paraphrase a talk I heard at GDC a few years back (by one of the Magic developers, as it happens.  I guess this was 2007 because Planar Chaos was the newest set).  I believe the talk ended up using more Starcraft examples than magic examples, though--it was talking about general game design.

(http://www.rpgdl.com/Images/Bonus/BonusRockPaperScissors.jpg)

The first thing he talked about was how important it was to get rock-paper-scissors interactions going on.  Your balance does not have to be perfect when you have rock-paper-scissors backing you up, since any imbalance will be corrected for by an appropriate shift in the metagame.  He further pointed out that it was important to recognize rock-paper-scissors interactions you didn't necessarily know you had in your game; like in magic, fast decks lose to midrange decks, because midrange decks have slightly more expensive cards that pack more punch.  Midrange decks lose to slow control decks for the same reason.  But slow control decks tend to lose to fast decks as they're dead before they can get set up.  You see the same kind of thing in Starcraft openers (fast strategies lose to medium strategies, but beat things like fast expand which leaves your early defences too minimal).

(http://classic.battle.net/images/battle/scc/terran/pix/b-stim.gif)

His next point was that there should be incentives to commit to a theme.  In Starcraft, you have upgrades that only upgrade certain units, which encourages you to make an army mostly of those units.  In Magic the Gathering you have 5 colours of mana, which encourage you to focus on only some pieces of the game.  The idea here is to maintain some real semblance of rock/paper/scissors.


Back to the Future

Okay, so let's gear back into modern MtG, flashing forward to 2009.  WotC has just done another multicolour block, this time focusing on 3-colour decks.  In parallel, they're trying to be a bit more creative about how different colours get card advantage; Blue would draw cards, for instance, while Green would have cards that made two creatures instead of one, and so on.  A "best deck" emerges (as sometimes happens) and people complain about it (people are always complaining, so this is nothing new).  Looking at things a bit closer, however, I feel like some of the design principles above were, most likely unintentionally, broken.

The deck in question is more of a "goodstuffs" deck than any particular theme; and on paper there's nothing wrong with that.  Except that it's a three colour deck, and many of the competing decks are also goodstuffs three colour decks that by definition must share at least one colour (everyone's playing Lightning Bolt!  ...Well almost).  Right there the commitment of one theme is partially gone.  But there's more to it than that.  Okay, so lots of different colours now have different ways to give card advantage...and as a result this deck is a fine mixture.  What's the best way to deal with Sprouting Thrinax (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Sprouting%20Thrinax)?  Why, one of the variety of "remove target creature from the game" spells (or rather "exile target creature").  Great, but such spells don't help you against Broodmate Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Broodmate%20Dragon), against whom...well I guess you counter him.  Great, but counterspells won't do well against Bloodbraid Elf (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Bloodbraid%20Elf).  And then there's Blightning (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Blightning)...well they're always printing clever anti-discard tricks, although those won't save you against Maelstorm Pulse (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Maelstrom%20Pulse).

The funny thing is that it's not even that overwhelming as far as best decks in the format go.  It's not like the Mirrodin years of "you can be dead by turn 3", super-decks where the problem was that cards worked together a little too well.  It's more that the best deck happens to be a deck that has no real theme and does...well almost everything.  Would things be different if it had been another three-colour combination on top?  Probably not; white gets Ranger of Eos (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Ranger%20of%20Eos), Martial Coup (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Martial%20Coup), Stoneforge Mystic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Stoneforge%20Mystic), and Knight of the White Orchid (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Knight%20of%20the%20White%20Orchid).  And Blue...draws cards.  It seems likely that if you group any three colours together in a deck that's not slow and not fast, the deck is going to have a tricky mixture of threatening cards.  And if one such deck's cards happens to be a little more threatening, well then you might just have a strongest deck that stays #1 for months on end because there's no clear way to get an advantage on it....like Jund.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 08, 2010, 10:49:00 PM
Okay, so...classic FFT debate.  Two Hands or Two Swords.  The classic answer has been that...outside of weapons that give you a bonus (like MA+2 or Auto-Haste) you should go for Two Hands.  This being for two flaws with Two Swords--first, if you are evaded on the first hit, then the second hit will face higher evasion because your opponent will turn-and-face you.  Second, because the first hit of a two swords attack can critical hit knocking the opponent backwards, and thus causing the second hit of the attack to miss.

This has been the conventional wisdom, anyhow.  Recently I did a quick calculation that ignored both of these factors, and ended up with this result:

Quote from: metroid composite on GameFAQs
If 1x physical is needed to kill target with 15% evade:
TS: 98% to kill in one round
TH: 85% to kill in one round

If 2x physical is needed to kill target with 15% evade:
TS: 72% to kill in one round, 99% to kill in two rounds
TH: 85% to kill in one round, 98% to kill in two rounds

If 3x physical is needed to kill target with 15% evade:
TS: 89% chance to kill in two rounds
TH: 72% chance to kill in two rounds

If 4x physical is needed to kill target with 15% evade:
TS: 52% chance to kill in two rounds, 95% chance to kill in three rounds
TH: 72% chance to kill in two rounds, 94% chance to kill in three rounds

So...at first glance this is pretty much what we'd expect--without those factors, Two Swords is better at killing things which take an odd number of physicals to kill, and Two Hands is better at killing things which take an even number of physicals to kill.  Except there's something else going on here as well--Two Swords has a greater level of consistency.  Which means that there's less chance of things going horribly wrong and missing over and over.  This actually makes "average number of turns needed to kill" slightly favour Two Swords.

In other words, without the turn-and-face mechanic and the knockback-out-of-second-hit mechanic, Two Swords would be at a mild advantage.  So...what happens when you factor all of those things in?

Code time!  (Sorry about the minimal commenting and inconsistent variable style; I did test each component as I was writing it).

Code: [Select]
print "hello world"
Hit = 0.75
Miss = 1-Hit
Crit = 0.05
DontCrit = 1-Crit
TFHit = Hit*0.9
TFMiss = 1-TFHit

def mult_arrays ( input, factor ):
    #we will need more space for the output
    return_value = []
    for i in range(0,len(input)+len(factor)-1):
        return_value.append(0.0)
    #now I make a messy loop
    for i in range(0, len(return_value)):
        for j in range(0,len(factor)):
            if( (i-j >= 0) and (i-j < len(input)) ):
                return_value[i] = return_value[i] + input[i-j]*factor[j]
    return return_value

def add_arrays ( input, addition ):
    #we will need more space for the output
    return_value = []
    for i in range(0,max(len(input),len(addition))):
        return_value.append(0.0)
    #and now we add.  Yes, there's more efficient ways of doing this than
    #constant if statements; inefficiency shouldn't be a problem today.
    for i in range(0,len(return_value)):
        if( i < len(input) ):
            return_value[i] = return_value[i] + input[i]
        if( i < len(addition) ):
            return_value[i] = return_value[i] + addition[i]
    return return_value


def get_TH_array():
    return_value = []
    for i in range(0,5):
        return_value.append(0.0)
    #miss
    miss = [Miss]

    hit = [0.0,0.0,Hit]
    
    #hit but don't crit
    justhit = mult_arrays(hit,[DontCrit])
    
    #crit
    critspread = [0.25,0.5,0.25]
    crit = mult_arrays(mult_arrays(critspread,hit),[Crit])

    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, miss)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, justhit)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, crit)
    return return_value

def get_one_hand_TS_array(CurrHit):
    CurrMiss = 1-CurrHit
    return_value = []
    for i in range(0,3):
        return_value.append(0.0)
    #miss
    miss = [CurrMiss]

    hit = [0.0,CurrHit]
    
    #hit but don't crit
    justhit = mult_arrays(hit,[DontCrit])
    
    #crit
    critspread = [0.5,0.5]
    crit = mult_arrays(mult_arrays(critspread,hit),[Crit])

    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, miss)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, justhit)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, crit)
    return return_value


def get_TS_array():
    return_value = []
    for i in range(0,3):
        return_value.append(0.0)
    #miss
    miss = [Miss]
    #if you miss, the second hit gets turn-faced
    miss = mult_arrays(miss,get_one_hand_TS_array(TFHit))

    hit = [0.0,Hit]
    
    #hit but don't crit
    justhit = mult_arrays(hit,[DontCrit])
    #if you just hit, then the next hit is normal propability spread
    justhit = mult_arrays(justhit,get_one_hand_TS_array(Hit))
    
    #crit
    critspread = [0.5,0.5]
    crit = mult_arrays(mult_arrays(critspread,hit),[Crit])
    #if you crit, you might knock back.  Technically knockback is 50%
    #although there's a number of cases where it can't happen, so I'll
    #take 40%
    knockbackfailure = [0.4]
    noknockback = mult_arrays([0.6],get_one_hand_TS_array(Hit))
    crit = mult_arrays(crit, add_arrays(knockbackfailure,noknockback))

    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, miss)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, justhit)
    return_value = add_arrays(return_value, crit)
    return return_value

TotalTurns = 20
def get_per_turn_probability(ThisTurn, killing_point):
    Spread = [1.0]
    prob_each_turn = []
    for i in range(0,TotalTurns):
        prob_each_turn.append(0.0)
    for turn in range(0,TotalTurns):
        total = 0.0
        for i in range (killing_point,len(Spread)):
            total = total + Spread[i]
    
        #now store this information for further use        
        if( turn > 0 ):
            prob_each_turn[turn] = total
            
        Spread = mult_arrays( Spread, ThisTurn )
    
    #print prob_each_turn
    #now isolate the each-turn probability
    non_cumul_prob = [prob_each_turn[0]]
    for i in range (1,len(prob_each_turn)):
        non_cumul_prob.append( prob_each_turn[i] - prob_each_turn[i-1] )
    return non_cumul_prob

def get_average_turn(ThisTurn, killing_point):
    per_turn_probability = get_per_turn_probability(ThisTurn, killing_point)
    average_turn = 0.0
    for i in range(0, len(per_turn_probability)):
        average_turn = average_turn + i*per_turn_probability[i]
    return average_turn

for durability in range(1,5):
    print "If ", durability, "x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in ", get_average_turn(get_TS_array(), durability), " turns, and Two Hands kills in ", get_average_turn(get_TH_array(), durability), " turns."

And the results (for an enemy with 25% evade, plus an additional 10% front evade if they turn-and-face)

If  1 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  1.08843537415  turns, and Two Hands kills in  1.33333333326  turns.
If  2 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  1.50659447452  turns, and Two Hands kills in  1.33333333326  turns.
If  3 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  2.31144817777  turns, and Two Hands kills in  2.61666666253  turns.
If  4 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  2.89397498789  turns, and Two Hands kills in  2.64999999576  turns.
If  5 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  3.6043053045  turns, and Two Hands kills in  3.90187488998  turns.
If  6 x physicals kill, then Two Swords kills in  4.24116898985  turns, and Two Hands kills in  3.96604155115  turns.

1x/3x/5x advantage: +0.25 turns, +0.30 turns, +0.30 turns
2x/4x/6x advantage: +0.17 turns, +0.25 turns, +0.28 turns

So...Two Swords is actually ahead in this case (although against an opponent with thousands of HP, Two Hands should eventually gain the advantage--it does deal more average damage, after all).  Furthermore, I would hazard a guess that something akin to Benford's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law) will apply to enemy durability (probably more like a bell curve on a logarithmic scale than an even distribution on a logarithmic scale, to be fair) which...will likely tilt the durability distribution towards odd numbers, I'm guessing.

Not that there aren't cases where Two Hands are preferable--if you know your main target will be in the 2x range, for example, then go with Two Hands.  And of course, against an enemy with no evasion whatsoever (like attacking most enemies from the side) there's only two factors involved: knockback and crits (which gives Two Hands about a 0.01 turn advantage).  And if your strategy is "I have a good unevadeable move that I use to finish off enemies at low HP" then Two Hands is probably better.

Still, though, this is a lot less one-sided than originally thought, and may actually favour Two Swords in the abstract general case.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2010, 06:20:23 AM
I'm going to take a moment to talk about something fuzzy and not really math related.  That's because I'm looking at real-time stuff; and while yes, you can math out real-time games frame-by-frame, it tends to be a mess.

In particular, the question I'm looking at is how much real-time competitive games should be decided by twitch skill (as opposed to tactics).  Obviously this is a value judgement and there isn't one single right answer; nevertheless...let's start by looking at the Smash series.

Smash 64

The most breakable game in the series.  If you had frame by frame reflexes, you would be able to do completely ridiculous stuff.  Example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLRzDQo4BPg

The competitive tournament scene for this game...involves Isai (one of the top Melee players, known for his reflexes) just...crushing everyone else.  A typical finals match looks something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WNBOru3kdM

With...Isai being left with about 4 stock despite his opponent clearly being very good at Smash 64.

Melee

Melee is...a less breakable system than 64.  Picks up wavedashing (which is basically short-distance rolling) but loses some of 64's wacky movement exploits (like 64's short-distance teleporting).  The bigger deal, however, is that L-Canceling only cuts animation time in half (unlike 64 where it sets animation time to zero).  What you get is a system where flawless use of exploits maybe doubles the pace of matches, but several people have the reflexes to pull this off, so there's certainly competition at the top.

Example match:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm8KUKEE5Rk

Brawl

A few key things change in Brawl.
1. "Sekret timing trick/exploit to speed up your character" that Melee had is...mostly gone.  (There are some character-specific exploits, though).
2. Defencive abilities are powered up; shielding is better, air dodging is better, air dodging can break you out of combos now (except chaingrabs), ledge-grabbing is better.

Example match:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-19NssjjZQ

Two things I'd like to address here--I've seen people on the internet claim stuff like "anyone can win at Brawl, it takes no skill".  This is pretty clearly false (I'll note that a lot of the top Brawl players are also top Melee players; M2K, for instance).  Second, high-defence few-combos, while not typical of fighting games, is...not inherently good or bad; it puts more emphasis on certain skills (like positioning).  (To some degree this is personal preference; though I will note that I don't find defensive play as exciting to watch).

Brawl Hacks

There's three talked about ones that I know of.

* Melee 2.0: Introduces wavedashing and L-Cancelling into Brawl (and tries to tune other parameters like gravity to be more Melee-like).  Actually a more technical game than Melee (Brawl's more powerful airdodge mechanics lead to a much more powerful wavedash than Melee).  I'm not aware of any tournaments played on this hack.
* Brawl+: Tones down most of Brawl's defensive mechanics (to more normal fighting game levels for blocking/escaping combos).  Does not add any big exploits like wavedashing or L-Cancelling, and in fact removes a couple exploits. (example (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rkz1DhN-Ec)).
* Balanced Brawl: Only touches character balance, rather than game style.  (example (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKMhgjgMB7w)).

Which of these has been successful?  The correct answer might be "none of them".  I don't see a lot of top players from other games migrating over to these (and why would they?  Brawl and Melee have tournaments for big money; the hack tournaments are...small money last I checked).  The most successful of the hacks is Brawl+...and there's two ways this could be read--the first interpretation being that low technical barrier to the learning curve and combos are both desirable.  The second interpretation would be that it fills a niche that hasn't been previously filled (although the problem with the niche argument is "where's the high technical barrier, low combo hack?")



-------------------------


OK, so within the Smash competitive community, we actually see some drifting towards games with a lower technical boundary.  (Not that there aren't elitists calling for a return to Smash 64--I've seen them on GameFAQs board 8, among other places).  What about other competitive communities?


My knowledge of first person shooters is even shakier than my knowledge of smash bros, but I do have some (particularly surrounding TF2), so I'll work with what I have at my fingertips.  I know TF2 was considered "lower skill" on the scale--which is to say that compared to some other games, where one clan member on a team of 6 can actually carry a team, that in TF2 teamwork is more important than having one spectacular player.  This is achieved in a few ways; for one, Bunny Hopping (an expoit where you trick gravity into making you fall sideways, and thus move faster than running) is removed from TF2.  For another thing (with three exceptions) there's no location-based damage (i.e. no "headshots") and most weapons decrease in damage over distance (and can be easily dodged).

I suppose if I'm going to write a paragraph about TF2 I should include a video; contains Otter & Sigma:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu6yilZIR-M

Now, have I seen elitists condemn TF2 for not being hardcore enough?  Sure.  Again, seems like a style of game issue (teamwork being more important than having a star player sounds reasonable for "Team" Fortress 2).  And...TF2 manages a pretty solid competitive scene in-spite of such criticisms (and has attracted some top skill players from other games; Carnage jumps to mind).

That said, popular versus games tend to develop tournament scenes; a quick search on the internet turns up tournament scenes for...just about every shooter that's been big in the past 3 years (Halo 3, CoD4, CoD5, CoD6, Left4Dead, Left4Dead2).  What about games that have a low mainstream visibility, but stand out in the tournament scene?  I want to say Painkiller falls into this category--it was chosen in 2005 to be the flagship tournament game of CPL (CPL had been the largest professional league since early in the Quake years).  And yet, I'm not sure if I know any Painkiller fans (if I do, they haven't been vocal).  So this...could be such an example.


------------------


It's also worth making a brief mention of RTSs...of which in the competitive scene there are...two (SC and WC3).  Starcraft focuses less on micromanagement of the two, and has the bigger tournament scene.  (Though with only two games a number of other factors could be contributing to this, from race balance, to the fact that PC gaming was more popular in 1998 than it was in 2002).  Certainly neither game is lacking in reflex use anyhow (some Starcraft players reaching 400 actions per minute).


------------------


Conclusion?
Here's the thing--as a competitive metagame voyeur, there's two things that I like watching.  First, I like watching strategy, and we know that games can show off strategy with or without twitch skill (and in fact, cranking the twitch skill factor up to 11 likely lowers how much strategy you will see in the metagame--if the fastest way to get better is to improve your reflexes rather than play smarter, that's what people will do).  Second, I like watching twitch skill if it is visible and dramatic--visible twitch skill would be something like blowing up a midair opponent in TF2 (which looks impressive) whereas invisible twitch skill would be something like L-Canceling in Smash games (which...you have to know the game very well to even spot while watching).

And I'll stop to point out as a tangent...what makes a game fun to play and fun to watch aren't always the same thing.  It's noteworthy that if I'm watching Starcraft for fun, I'll watch the battles, but if I'm trying to get better at the game then I'll watch the economy and build order and scouting.

Anyhow, back to voyerism.  I would venture a guess that being a fun game to spectate (due to visible strategy and/or visible skill) probably does factor into which games develop popular tournament scenes.  After all, people watching a tournament match and reacting "huh, I want to try that now" is a big part of how metagames develop.  This, in turn, puts a bit of a skill ceiling on twitchiness--if someone watches a top player, goes "I want to try that now" and...can't do something similar, not even 10% of the time, then said person will likely find the tournament scene less personally relevant, and not join up themselves.

And...actually, this is bringing me back to ye olde Flow Diagram (http://www.c2.com/cgi/wiki?MentalStateCalledFlow)--the same diagram that says "get your challenge right in one-player games" may well apply here too.  If someone watches a tournament player, says "let me try that" and finds that they have everything easily perfected, this player likely also would not stick around.  (I'm not sure how often this really comes up in-practice; most games are not so simple.  Although I will note that tournament tic-tac-toe is pretty non-existent).

I'll take a moment to reiterate, though--I could be wrong about a lot of this stuff.  Much of this is just speculation and guesswork, and not even necessarily perfectly informed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 12, 2010, 07:20:48 AM
For FPS if you are interested in skill vs tactics and how it all interplays, you can't go past Counter Strike, there is a reason it was so ridiculously successful.  Can't find a super good video of a live match easilly (Don't know the players or teams to look for anymore...)  but http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tu__AtSJtM&feature=related this certainly is all about tactics and gives you a good cross section of skill as well.

Of course as always, you cannot go past Quake 3 if you want pure skill twitch gaming that impresses.

The DL actually has some Painkiller fans, but uh as one of them, the multiplayer having a following honestly suprises me.  It is a good oldschool shooter, but what its multi brings is purely inferior to Quake 3.

Edit - Still not great, but a good idea of where to start compared to the other one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcNPTyw5KQk

Team 3D vs SK Gaming.  Both pretty insanely huge in FPS scene in general.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2010, 04:05:18 PM
Yeah, I'll be honest that I don't know much about CS specifically (other than the basics--no respawning, plant/diffuse bomb, use low mouse sensitivity for sniping (1-2 range), buy weapons, everyone runs faster with a knife, boom headshot).  Specifically, I wanted to write something about why 1.6 is still more popular than Source (as that seems like exactly the kind of example that would be useful) but I realized I didn't actually know what I was talking about.

(Reading some random forum...Source has crate physics and larger hitboxes, and 1.6 has more exploitable bugs and more recoil.  So...I guess 1.6 is the more twitch-skill game?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 12, 2010, 05:52:45 PM
That I can't really tell, I am not into CS enough to know how it is playing more than kind of tangentially.  My exposure is that 1.6 is awesome and Source is shit because everything is wrong  (The hit boxes and the recoil differences are likely a large part of this).

They are both very twitchy with good players being able to spray down whole teams in matters of seconds.  At a really high level of play though there is a pretty crazy level of tactics and skill being put into play to get yourself in a position to do that.

Part of why 1.6 is still more popular than Source is really just because it came first.  CS had been sitting at 1.6 for like 3 or 4 years between when it was "finished" and when CS:S came out.  The journey to 1.6 was a pretty long one as well and CS had been dominating as a tournament FPS since before I started playing (Beta 6 from memory?  Just a bit before they removed the scope from the M4 and actually decided to balance T and CT weapons), so yeah people are fairly attached to it.  I guess it is the Smash to Brawl jump or something played out over a much more granual set of changes (It isn't here is a pile of bug fixes and some bullshit exploits changed, it is different hit boxes and everything that looks pretty much the same just not quite functioning in the ways you expect them to).

But yeah, the point was that the game that was far and away the most mind bogglingly successful tournament wise in FPS was huge on both factors of twitch and tactics.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 22, 2010, 03:03:45 AM
I'm posting from a cell phone, and thus may randomly cut this post short but...

A conversation I had recently: why does species rule exist in competitive Pokemon?

Having had the question circulating in my mind, it occurs to me that this is a common rule in a lot of competitive setups.  In TF2 you can only use 2 of each class at most.  In MtG you can only use 4 copies of any one card.  In most Fft Tournaments you can only use one copy of each skill/class on your team.

Some games have no such rules.  Wolfenstein Enemy Territory does not (and competitive play tends to be 5x Medic and 1x Engineer).  Hell, TF2 hasn't always had the restriction (and used to be something like 3x Medic, 2x Soldier, 1x Demoman).  Some games have a restriction clearly for balance purposes only, like Starcraft where double-zerg is not legal in 2v2.

But it seems to me there's more than just balance concern in such species restrictions.  One of the things I heard cited for TF2 (when discussing only Medics being restricted) was "swinginess", which is to say, one team overloading on one class would crush certain setups, and crumple to others.  At this point you have a guessing game of rock paper scissors where player skill in-battle is less important.  The next argument is just a general increase in variety.  When you have to be creative to fill your last two slots rather than just throwing in a couple more of your allstars, you get a bit more team variety.  An argument I've heard from a Magic the Gathering developer is that it's just a good safeguard: okay, so some card may end up stupidly good, but there will still be variety in decks, because deck designers have another 8 cards to pick.

As it happens, analogs to the species rule pop up in game design too.  Pokemon lets you learn 4 attacks, with no duplicates.  FFX lets you set four abilities on a weapon/armour with no duplicates.  And, on the other hand, there are games that do the oppisite: a lot of Starcraft strategies involve attacking with masses of one unit when your opponent isn't expecting that unit (a notable difference with Starcraft being that scouting the opponent and changing your build accordingly is a huge part of the game...whereas information scouting and setup adjustments aren't built-in to most games).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 06, 2010, 02:52:05 PM
So...going back to a previous discussion, I made the statement that Warcraft 3 is more designed around micro than Starcraft.  While that's probably true about being more designed around micro, here's an interesting video that caught my attention:

http://kotaku.com/5580080/korean-gamers-are-faster-than-a-speeding-bullet

In the interview, the korean pro says that you don't have to be as fast APM-wise for WC3 as you do for SC.

I can think of a few reasons why this might be: even though WC3 units require more individual attention, you can have more units in SC, so it might just be a numbers issue.  SC units also have less HP in general making flanking more important and a mis-step more costly.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DjinnAndTonic on July 07, 2010, 01:41:07 AM
I was hoping to hear more from you on the species restrictions rules.

It seemed interesting, but you really didn't come to a conclusion about their purposes or implementations in various game genres.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 07, 2010, 02:36:25 AM
In Pokemon, the species rule always felt designed by the same people who didn't ban ubers; the best way to control Mewtwo without banning him outright is to ensure each team only has one, thus minimising his overcentralising effect on the game.

The only other reason I can think to have the rule continue is to avoid situations where players can mislead others by making it unclear if this Garchomp that has just been switched in is the same as one that has already seen play. It'd be cruel and rather annoying misdirection for a player to fool someone into thinking that this is a Swords Dancing Garchomp and then BAM, Scarfchomp kills Weavile before he can move.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 07, 2010, 03:58:26 AM
I was hoping to hear more from you on the species restrictions rules.

It seemed interesting, but you really didn't come to a conclusion about their purposes or implementations in various game genres.
Sure.

My main conclusions on their purpose are buried in the third paragraph, namely:
1. As a metagame safeguard, in case something is unexpextedly overpowered (to prevent, say, everyone using Magneto/Magneto/Magneto teams in MvC2).
2. To keep matches from being decided before they start when teams are so extreme it becomes rock-paper-scissors.
3. To increase variety a little; instead of "now that I have my four core team-members...I'll round out the team with two more of that guy" you have to stretch a bit more.

To elaborate a little on the rock-paper-scissors: when used right it's a construct that's very, very good for competitive games; good pokemon matches have prediction mindgames going on every single turn.  Fighting games usually have something built-in like block>punch>grab>block.  What doesn't work well, however, is when a single decision is too important, especially if it's a single decision before the match even starts.

For example, it would be bad in Starcraft if, say Protoss always beat Zerg at high level.  However, Protoss going DT-Sair always beating Zerg going Ultra-Ling?  That's fine, especially since Zerg can change their strategy mid-fight (and maybe catch back up).

In the case of single player games, I think there's an added benefit that it opens up game design options.  Imagine if, in FFT, you could stack copies of Magic Attack Up in your movement, support, secondary, and reaction slots.  While 4xMAU may or may not be an optimal setup, there's no question it would break things.  The fact that this isn't possible allows the designers to worry a little less when making stackable effects.  (You see this a lot in MtG).

I'm starting to tangent here, but FFT doesn't use a species rule per-se (WAXF is the FFT-style game that did).  FFT instead used a slot system; my kneejerk is that WAXF has it right and FFT has it wrong, though that may just be a kneejerk negative reaction to equipment in most JRPGs ("man, what am I going to equip on my left elbow?  The elbow pad with 8 defence or the elbow pad with 10 defence???")  Mathematically the number of possible setups goes doen a lot with a fixed-slot system, though.  Like, let's say there's 4 slots and 16 pokemon that can go into those slots.  Species rule gives you 16*15*14*13/1/2/3/4 = 2*5*14*13 = 1820.  Fixed slot rule gives you 4*4*4*4 = 256.  No-rule gives you 1820 + 16*15*14/3/4 + smaller terms = 1820 + 4*3*13 + smaler terms = 1820 + 156.  ...Or in other words, the difference between fixed-slots and species-rule is about 1000%, a huge increase in theoretical combinations.  The difference between no species rule and species rule is small; maybe 10% of theoretical combinations.

Since I'm on this tangent anyway, looping back to the things I listed species rule doing well--like the fact that it's less of a problem if one particular piece is overpowered...fixed slot rule doesn't handle this nearly as gracefully.  If a support ability is overpowered in FFT, for instance, everything else in that slot just automatically won't see play.  One hypothetical advantage of fixed-slot is that it may be less rock-paper-scissors swingy; like...inagine competitive pokemon where there's exactly one "steel slot" on each team; this would make the metagame less "about steel".  However, fixed-slot would probably ultimately fail to produce more metagame diversity, due to the sheer mathematics of so many fewer teams, on top of the less graceful handling of overpowered options.

So...yeah, goooo tangents (still posting from a cellphone; reordering paragraphs into logical essay orders doesn't happen).  I hope I answered your question somewhere in there; feel free to pressure me on specific points if you want to hear more about them.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 22, 2010, 04:47:12 PM
Starcraft 2 (Or: how some Zerg units look kinda weak compared to other races...)

Now, don't get me wrong here--I'm not implying Zerg is necessarily weak as a race (maybe they have better macro than other races--that was certainly the case in SC1).  But looking at some of these units cost-for cost compared to similar units in other races...

Let's start out with the relatively solid...

[c]Roaches[/c]

Roaches aren't bad.  100 cost 2 supply for a ~150 HP 1 Defence unit that can only attack ground.  The obvious equivalent unit in Protoss is the Zealot, which attacks 50% more often for the same damage, but is range 1 instead of range 3.  There isn't an as obvious parallel for Terran, but Marauders kinda fit--20 less HP (40 less HP if they stim) and 25 extra cost are the Marauder downsides.  The upsides?  Marauders deal more damage to Light units if they stim...and over double damage to Armoured units if they stim (overall around twice as much damage on average, assuming about half of your opponent's forces are armoured).  Oh, and as an extra bonus, Marauders have 6 range instead of 3, and slow down opponent movement speed. >_>

So anyway, Roaches are decent; Marauders look better, but that's okay--Marauders are probably the best unit in the game so being worse than them isn't insulting.

[c]Hydralisks[/c]

Compared to stalkers...they cost about the same (stalkers are 17% more expensive).  Thanks to a higher attack rate they deal about twice as much damage to Light targets, but they have half the HP and no defence.  So far this is relatively even--slight advantage to Hydras even, thanks to a lower cost.  But Stalkers have more movement, 40% bonus damage against armoured targets, teleportation, and are much lower on the tech tree, while Hydralisks have...the ability to upgrade their range to 6 (the range Stalkers have by default).

So...comparing to Terran--there isn't an exact comparison, but Marines are very similar to Hydras--low HP units that have a fair bit of damage, but don't have any specific damage bonus.  They're also 1/3 the cost of Hydras.  Even without Stim or the HP upgrade, three marines kill one Hydra (only losing one Marine themselves).  Although to be fair: on the other end of the spectrum, technically five Hydras kill one Thor (equivalent cost), and yet in practice groups of Hydras don't do so well against equivalent cost groups Thors thanks to higher range and initial burst damage from the Thors.  And compared to Marines, Hydras have the range and burst advantage.  Then again, on the third hand, if you mix in Stim and HP upgrades for the Marine, then on paper two Marines take out one Hydra (when three Marines is the equivalent cost), so I'd hazard a guess that Marines probably are efficient against Hydras.  And Marines do come much earlier on the tech tree.

Corruptor

Remember the good ol' days of Brood War, when Acid Spores had splash effect, and let you deal up to 10 extra damage per hit?  Now Corruption is a 75 energy single-target spell that lets you deal 20% more damage...which for most Zerg units means 2 extra damage per hit.  Okay, well...maybe Corruptors have good combat stats?  Well...when one of their uses is apparently countering Vikings (http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Corruptor), a less expensive unit which deals 24 damage per second to corruptors (compared to the 7 DPS corruptors deal back; maybe close to 10 DPS if they use the corruption spell) and the HP gap is only 200 to 125.  Yeah, corruptors soundly lose the 1v1 against a cheaper unit that liquipedia suggests they are used to counter, even assuming they cast a 75 energy spell to help.  Though I'll give them some credit: Corruptors do handle Phoenixes.  And uncharged Void Rays (for all that Corruptors killing slowly means void rays might have time to reach full charge).



Granted, a lot of the power of Zerg arguably comes from units that don't have a direct analogue in other races (Zerglings, Mutalisks, Banelings).  And there's other comparisons I could make, but they're a bit of a stretch (yeah, Banshees horribly outdamage Brood Lords, but arguably BLs are for spawning free meatshields that stop the enemy ground army from walking forward, and yeah, Ultralisks are probably overall weaker than Thors and Colossi, but they do move quite a bit faster and have more durability so it's not a totally cut and dried comparison).  Still though, some of these unit stats do make me raise an eyebrow....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on September 22, 2010, 05:33:59 PM
Stalker: 10 vs light, 14 vs armored with 1.44 cooldown = 6.94~ / 9.72~
Marine: 6 vs anything with 0.8608 cooldown (0.57387 stimmed) = 6.97~ / 10.46~
Hydralisk: 12 vs anything with 0.83 cooldown = 14.46~

In practice, hydras kill pretty much all Terran bio and Protoss gateway units on the ground barring caster use when going against them. They cleanly outclass stalkers (over twice the damage output vs them, same range, Blink doesn't really help) and kill zealots fine once they've reached a semi-respectable critical mass. Against Terran, stimmed marines (even with the shield upgrade) are taking a hit before they get in range and die to 3 hits, while killing in 8. Even though in one-on-one the average marine is getting 4-5 shots off before dying, in practice it's very hard to get a proper surround (you need a wide open field and to be able to circle the hydras quickly), and that eats up valuable time when you're taking considerably more damage than you're doing. They are probably the most efficient unit to fight hydras, but actually still generally lose to them (and infestors vs medivac for support units is -cleanly- in favor of the infestor because Fungal is that amazing). It is also a rare situation where marauders are cost-inefficient - against ANY OTHER UNIT they still have use (the target is either armored or melee, i.e. zerglings, roaches, zealots, stalkers, even immortals/colossi) but hydras have the rare distinction of avoiding both weaknesses.

Hydras have mobility issues where they aren't easy to move around off creep and are later tier than the aforementioned units, but at appreciable army sizes they do quite soundly beat out other ground forces that don't have splash. The general accepted counter to them is either tanks (and not so much with the advent of the latest patch), colossi, or storm.

Corruptors are extremely niche but serve well in their one niche: they counter colossi, as they can effectively snipe them and not care about stalkers shooting at them thanks to having so much HP. No one uses Corruption really and it is a spell badly in need of overhaul. They do not even remotely counter vikings, Liquipedia is full of it (vikings are the best AA unit in the game), though they do counter BCs should it ever be relevant. Hydras are actually a better counter to void ray (relevant) and phoenix (not so much). Hell, QUEENS are better to counter void rays in the context of most games.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on September 22, 2010, 06:35:58 PM
Ooh, wonder if you could do a specific analysis. Since you looked at why Garchomp was moved from OU -> Ubers, any notes on why Salamence was? I still can't quite get my head around that one. >.>
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 22, 2010, 07:03:43 PM
They cleanly outclass stalkers (over twice the damage output vs them, same range, Blink doesn't really help)

Do they?  Sure, twice the damage output, but half the durability should make for a relatively even fight.  Movement speed and blink are relevant for stuff like chasing down and killing a smaller force, or running from a larger force.  (And blink can abuse cliffs and avoid walking in single file).

Although sure: Stalkers are not built for taking out Hydras; it just strikes me that they have a relatively even matchup despite Hydras very much not being the kind of enemy they're built to fight.

Quote
In practice, hydras kill pretty much all Terran bio and Protoss gateway units on the ground barring caster use when going against them.

So...counting out all casters that leaves...six units?  Most of which win in some scenarios (like Dark Templar and Reapers)?

Quote
Hydras have mobility issues where they aren't easy to move around off creep and are later tier than the aforementioned units, but at appreciable army sizes they do quite soundly beat out other ground forces that don't have splash. The general accepted counter to them is either tanks (and not so much with the advent of the latest patch), colossi, or storm.

Well yes--the way to kill masses of low HP units is units is to outrange and splash them.  I'm pretty sure the list of Marine counters would also be Storm, Tanks, and Colossi.

Ooh, wonder if you could do a specific analysis. Since you looked at why Garchomp was moved from OU -> Ubers, any notes on why Salamence was? I still can't quite get my head around that one. >.>

I might.  Actually, what happened is that I was planning to write about a lot more SC2, and then Pokemon BW started getting revealed all over the place, so I'll probably end up writing about my expectations for new bannings from BW.

Briefly though: Salamence does fit into the pattern of other 600 BST pokemon that were moved to uber--which is to say high speed, and high damage.  Now if you want speed and damage on a 600 BST pokemon you do like...normal Shamin...complete with that 100 special (but hey: Seed Bomb--it's shiny).  If you want an actually good attack stat on a 600 BST pokemon, your fastest option is...Dragonite, at 80 base speed stat.  Not that speed+damage are the only reasons for banning, but now that Latias and Salmence are in uber there is a certain amount of consistency.  (The more in-depth reasons also have something along the lines of "Salamence's intimidate can force a switch, and Salamence's type coverage of Fire/Earth/Dragon means there isn't a safe switch in").
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on September 22, 2010, 08:16:17 PM
Uh, actually, by "caster units" I really mean "sentries and high templars" (and to some extent, ghosts). Reapers lose badly so badly to hydras it's not even funny (4.5 range vs 6 with 50 HP is a terrible combination). DTs aren't even comparable because they flat out lose if there's an Overseer (which is pretty trivial for Zerg to morph in) and are not a kind of unit you use as part of an army composition.

The actual number of units they're good against hardly matters. Marine/marauder/zealot/stalker is the backbone of nearly all army compositions in SC2 and come into play extremely often. Additionally hydras do fine vs a variety of units beyond that (hellions, immortals, basically anything in the air). Being able to handle those number of crucial units certainly makes them one of the best Zerg units on the field right now to me, considerably more than, say, roaches.

Marine counters do include storm, tanks, and colossi, but that list is also expanded to banelings (which hydras kill just fine due to their superior range and lack of need to stim), as well as chargelots.

Stalker/hydra is interesting. While you're right that the numbers in practice make it look close, I find in practice hydras have a decisive edge in engagements. It may be because it's so much easier to clump hydras together and shoot en masse whereas stalkers don't have that advantage (despite being faster, they are larger). If you want to test this out on some map at some point, I'd be more than happy to do so.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 22, 2010, 10:21:49 PM
Quote
Marine/marauder/zealot/stalker is the backbone of nearly all army compositions in SC2 and come into play extremely often.

I thought Colossi (or in some cases Immortals) were supposed to be a significant part of Toss armies?  And High Templar late in the game.  (Unless you mean against random people on battle.net, in which case yes: Zealots/Stalkers/Void Rays >_>).

It may be because it's so much easier to clump hydras together and shoot en masse whereas stalkers don't have that advantage (despite being faster, they are larger).
Hm, yeah, that's a good point I didn't take into account.  (I wonder how the size varies between Marine and Hydralisk too--Marines were a lot smaller than Hydras in SC1, but I think marines are larger now).

Quote
If you want to test this out on some map at some point, I'd be more than happy to do so.

Sure.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on September 22, 2010, 11:50:06 PM
They're mid-game and late-game units. Both storm and colossi require a significant amount of time to reach, and while they certainly are major factors the main army composition is still going to be gateway units (unless they're rushing or their opponent sucks and lets you expand/mass without much issue). In particular, colossi and HT take roughly the same amount of time to reach (Twilight Council/Templar Archives + research Storm, or Robotics Facility/Robotics Support Bay + research Thermal Lance), and are massive gas investments.

A surprising number of games, whether in Bronze League or Diamond, end before tech even gets that far. Believe me, I can attest to that >_>

This is significantly later than hydra, which just requires Lair and a Hydralisk Den and is much more gas friendly. Incidentally, corruptors are often mixed into hydras just to deal with colossi. No race, on the other hand, has an easy answer to storm other than Ghost's EMP (some things don't change).

Basically, if you're going to pick on any Zerg unit, pick on the roach. Or zerg tier 1 in general - they basically have speedlings as a bread and butter option, with banelings as a niche choice, and.... I'm just far less impressed with roaches (die to marauders, die to stalkers - the two most popular units in the game for their respective races - die to immortals, die to any sort of air rush ala banshee/void ray, and even reapers and hellions can outrange and kill them with impressive micro, while sentries also get a field day because Force Field makes them cry horribly.) This is generally why they're regarded as underpowered early on since at professional levels of play there's often enough pressure that you don't have TIME to get to Lair while expanding (which, yes, Z still needs to be 1 base up to be competitive just like in SC1) and you almost have to use roaches to counter certain builds, but they really peter out quickly (matching Hydra food and being a generally inferior unit the longer the game goes on does not help).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 23, 2010, 04:02:54 AM
They're mid-game and late-game units. Both storm and colossi require a significant amount of time to reach, and while they certainly are major factors the main army composition is still going to be gateway units (unless they're rushing or their opponent sucks and lets you expand/mass without much issue). In particular, colossi and HT take roughly the same amount of time to reach (Twilight Council/Templar Archives + research Storm, or Robotics Facility/Robotics Support Bay + research Thermal Lance), and are massive gas investments.

Colossi are still a lot earlier--they can do stuff without research (for all that you probably won't time your push before research, you can defend with them alright) and even after you train a templar and research storm it only spawns with 50 energy, so there's extra waiting there.

Quote
A surprising number of games, whether in Bronze League or Diamond, end before tech even gets that far. Believe me, I can attest to that >_>

Sure.  Often rushing with Zealots or Lings, cheesing with cannons or bunkers, getting hit with a unit that you're not prepared for (Dark Templar, Mutalisks).

Is there a timing push with Hydras, though?  (I know there was in SC1 versus toss, but they're tier 1 units in SC1, and even in SC1 it was possible to get defencive Storm up in time with scouting).

Quote
This is significantly later than hydra, which just requires Lair and a Hydralisk Den and is much more gas friendly.

Lair is 100 vespene.  So...maybe that starts around the same time as Robo (you could probably start Lair earlier if you delayed your Queen, but >_>).  Build time for Lair + Hydra Den is 120.  Build time for Robo + RoboBay is 130.  Hydras build in 33 seconds; a chrono-boosted Colossus builds in 37 seconds.  So...it's not much later for producing one Colossus (which will probably be backed up by Zealots to save gas).  This is dependent on scouting, though--in that you must scout "not Mutalisks".

Quote
Basically, if you're going to pick on any Zerg unit, pick on the roach. Or zerg tier 1 in general - they basically have speedlings as a bread and butter option, with banelings as a niche choice, and.... I'm just far less impressed with roaches (die to marauders, die to stalkers

Versus stalkers?  Roaches are like...half the cost, while actually being almost able to one-on-one...(ignoring range issues, obviously).  Not as good as Zealots are  against stalkers when Zealots get into range, but still decent (and get into range much easier).  Although sure: crazy micro can give Stalkers an advantage.

Quote
and you almost have to use roaches to counter certain builds, but they really peter out quickly (matching Hydra food and being a generally inferior unit the longer the game goes on does not help).

Well yes, I think that's most of why they exist.  They're one of the only heavy armor zerg units, and the only early range, which makes them the only sensible way to fight early Reapers, for instance.  They're one of the only durable zerg units, and if your entire army lacks durability, you open up vulnerabilities to stuff like storm.

Although sure: if other races had access to roaches, I doubt those races would use Roaches.  Roaches just fill a niche for Zerg.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on September 23, 2010, 04:19:13 AM
There's not really a timing push with hydras that I know of, no. They are a little late for that; they're more of a "if you've got solid macro, this is a great unit to mass up" option.

Colossi do ultimately come out faster than high templar, though bear in mind that aside from needing Thermal Lance to push out, they cost 300/200 a pop. Assuming fast tech, you can only support 2 gate / 1 robo producing colossi off 1 base and that's with significant unit cutting early on (so no expanding or anything) whereas Zerg pretty much auto-expands before Lair. You will also be gas blocked from constantly producing Colossi AND getting Lance at the same time, and you won't be able to build sentries beyond the mandatory 1 for your ramp.

On the flipside, hydras at 100/50 means you can pick up 6 to one colossi in terms of gas, and if Protoss is producing zealots as his mineral sink, that certainly works in Z's favor.

The main advantage of templar is not that you get them fast, but that you get to pick up useful upgrades on the way (Blink is cool, Charge fundamentally upgrades zealots almost as much as ling speed does).

Roach really doesn't beat stalker, though. Off creep, they're criminally slower and basically picked off by stalkers with zero issue (2.25 speed vs 2.95). Even on creep they're only marginally faster with 6 range vs 3. I mean, yes, it's not a hopeless cause since they cost less, but they are at a clear disadvantage (and they're equal food units).

One of the main reasons I disdain roaches so much is that almost all of their supposed niche uses can be circumvented with speedlings in most situations (speedlings kill stalkers fine, and while it takes 4 to take down 1 zealot that's still equal cost - and if P is going zealot heavy all of your other tech options look so much better, since ANYTHING zerg has kills zealots - roaches, hydras, mutas, banelings, etc.) In the TvZ matchup, you MUST get banelings to contend with Terran bio, so lings are going to be mandatory regardless and also do better against the MM ball than roaches do. If Terran mech was more prevalent I would agree with seeing more roach play, but... well, it's not, and will be even less so after the recent tank nerf.

(Admittedly, a lot of this anti-hype is because many Z I see aren't using roaches the way I feel they're intended to: you probably shouldn't build then en masse, but use them as meatshields in conjunction with lings, the same way Protoss utilizes chargelots or Terran utilizes marauders.)

As a side note: Zealots are actually horrible against stalkers. The firing animation is considerably faster than dragoons from SC1, so kiting is of minor issue (the shot goes off relatively fast).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 23, 2010, 02:30:39 PM
(Admittedly, a lot of this anti-hype is because many Z I see aren't using roaches the way I feel they're intended to: you probably shouldn't build then en masse, but use them as meatshields in conjunction with lings, the same way Protoss utilizes chargelots or Terran utilizes marauders.)

Well yes.  Meatshields are useful when you're actually shielding something.  Not so useful when you're not shielding anything....  (Although, exception: a Korean game I saw a while back had the Toss going mass high templar, and Zerg using a mass of roaches against that army and just burrowing and +10 regenerating in response to storm).

Quote
As a side note: Zealots are actually horrible against stalkers. The firing animation is considerably faster than dragoons from SC1, so kiting is of minor issue (the shot goes off relatively fast).

They can do fine in an earlygame rush--have one Zealot chase after each Stalker, and the remaining Zealots kill Probes.  If the Stalkers go defend the probes, then the chasing Zealots catch up and kill.  This does require a rush build, though--obviously an opponent with equal numbers of stalkers to your Zealots would be bad.

Zealots also do fine against Stalkers in big mixed army collisions mid-late game.  In that case...sure you could micro the Stalkers, but it's more important to micro the Colossi.

Quote
Roach really doesn't beat stalker, though. Off creep, they're criminally slower and basically picked off by stalkers with zero issue (2.25 speed vs 2.95).

Roach speed can be upgraded to 3 >_>

Although sure, that upgrade is Lair only, and won't be part of a Roach rush.  (Roach rushes versus Toss have to operate more like Zealot rushes--make the stalkers run or corner them to the base walls, and then kill the probes with Lings).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on September 23, 2010, 10:19:25 PM
Quote
and then Pokemon BW started getting revealed all over the place, so I'll probably end up writing about my expectations for new bannings from BW.

If you do theorymon on this, bear in mind that the tenatative (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78764&page=4) plan (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3012200) is to start with everything unbanned (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79462) and rebuild the ubers list from scratch.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on September 24, 2010, 10:39:33 AM
Doesn't surprise me, given how much the metagame is likely to change - can see Sand Stream suddenly moving even further up the tiers, thanks to the damn mole thing. >.>
It's funny how many people have complained about BW making the old Pokemon completely redundant, though - a few people have said that old Pokes won't even be worth using given the BW ones.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 24, 2010, 05:11:25 PM
Quote
and then Pokemon BW started getting revealed all over the place, so I'll probably end up writing about my expectations for new bannings from BW.

If you do theorymon on this, bear in mind that the tenatative (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78764&page=4) plan (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3012200) is to start with everything unbanned (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79462) and rebuild the ubers list from scratch.

Well right--there is a question of "where do you draw the line".  If they end up with a line drawn in the same location as last game, though...




Starting with the top of the pokedex, as it should have the highest concentration of likely ubers....

http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/649.shtml

600 BST Bug/Steel (one 4x weakness) with 99 speed, 120/120 Attack/Special (which get further boosted by the ability: Download).

Abilities: STAB U-Turn, Explosion, reasonable special STABs (90 Bug Buzz, 80 Flash Cannon), excellent all-round coverage (Flamethrower, Thunderbolt, Ice Beam, Energy Ball (80 power Grass), and "Techno Buster" an 85 power move it can make any type with the right held item).  Support includes Thunder Wave, double Screens, and Rock Polish.

Verdict: Hmm....lacks anything like Swords Dance or Dragon Dance that would just be...absurd; so it's only fast+high power+download.  Heatran resists much of the likely moves.  (Hidden Power Earth or Techno Buster Earth can threaten there).

Hmm...leaning towards yes: this would be Uber in the gen 4 Tier list.


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/648.shtml

600 BST Serene Grace pokemon with two forms.

Steppe Forme:
128 Attack, 128 Speed Normal Fighting with STAB Close Combat, STAB Return, has Cheer UP (Atk+1, SpAtk+1).  Type Coverage is...Shadow Claw, Stone Edge, U-Turn.

Serene Grace is...basically wasted on this pokemon.  No flinch move.  No big effects that I can see.  On the other hand...ouch.  And Shadow Claw makes Ghost switch-ins somewhat questionable.  On the third hand...Hippowdon is the current OU physical wall, and is only weak to ice, water, and grass, which aren't available to #648 without dipping into its 77 special.  On the third hand, Grass Knot is 120 power against Hippo's lowish special defence, and Cheer Up boosts it.

verdict: Honestly, doesn't use Serene Grace as well as Shaymin-S, but higher attacking stat, better typage (both on attack and defence) and more durable (90 defence instead of 75).  Yeah, uber.

Voice Forme:
Normal/Psychic with 128 SpAtk, 90 Speed, 128 SpDef

It's bulky, but only specially bulky.  Offence is...okay (STAB options are...Hyper Voice and Psychic.  Non-STAB options are Grass Knot, Thunderbolt, Shadow Ball, Focus Blast).  With that bulk it wants Recover and...doesn't have it.

verdict: Honestly...looks counterable.  No super effective move on Scizor (outside of Hidden Power Fire).  Pursuit.  Hit that bad defence stat super effective.  Countered.


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/647.shtml

580 BST Water/Fighting with "Heart of Justice" (Attack rises if hit with a dark type attack)

*snort* wow, lame ability and below 600 BST.  Okay, not sounding uber so far.


129 Sp Atk, 108 Speed

...oh well, I guess I should take a closer look anyway.


Surf+Focus Blast make good STABs.  Sword of Mystery gives it STAB physical damage off of its special stat.  And...that's pretty much it for special moves it can learn.  (Lots of physical moves, it can use with its 72 attack stat though!)  Support includes Calm Mind (and Swords Dance!!) but not, say, Recover.

So um...Starmie says "'sup.  I'm water/Psychic and resist all your special moves (outside of hidden power), can recover stuff anyway, plus hit you with super effective Psychic."

verdict: Not uber.


That's all for the moment....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Taishyr on September 24, 2010, 07:09:59 PM
/me looks in. Meloia/whatever can't start in Step form, has to transform in battle by using an attack (Ancient Song IIRC) according to the info I've been reading.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 24, 2010, 08:27:13 PM
Oh, well, just a few more before getting back to work...

http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/646.shtml

660 BST Ice Dragon with Pressure

95 speed.  130 in both attack stats.  Tanky.  No W4 (in fact, Ice resists Dragon's Fire weakness, and Dragon resists Ice's Fire weakness, so only four W2s).  Obviously nice STABs, but they overlap a little.  Both Ice and Dragon are stopped by Steel, but Focus Blast exists for that.  Nothing hugely outstanding in support moves.

verdict: uber.  Less automatic than you'd expect for a 660 BST pokemon, but y'know, 95 speed, 130 attack stat with good STABs would be suspicious on a 600 BST pokemon.


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/645.shtml

600 BST Ground Flying with Sand Strength (or in the Dream World: Encourage)

101 Speed.  125 Attack.  115 Special.  Swords Dance.  Explosion.  Rock Polish.

Sand Strength is 1.5x the power of Rock, Ground, and Steel moves under Sandstorm.  So...2.25x STAB Earthquake, and 1.5x Stone Edge.  Other random moves include U-Turn, Outrage, Hammer Arm (100 power fighting move, lowers speed).  For use with the high special stat there is Earth Power, Psychic, Focus Blast, Grass Knot.

So...it's basically like Garchomp right down to the Ice W4.  Somewhat less durable, but with mix/special setups possible.  Oh, and bonus Earthquake damage, and Explosion.

verdict: uber.


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/644.shtml

680 BST Electric Dragon with Terra Voltage (which means: can't be stopped by opponent abilities like Volt Absorb).

Oh look, 150 attack stat, excellent durability, 90 speed, and its own unique physical electric moves that are better than all other electric moves.  Oh, and Electric is an excellent type defensively too.

verdict: uber


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/643.shtml

680 BST Fire Dragon with Turbo Blaze

Same as above, but replace "physical" with "special" and "electric" with "fire".  Just to be cute, if you're playing a Sunny Day team it has Solarbeam!  Oh, also note that with Turbo Blaze it can hit every opponent with at least a neutral STAB (as Flash Fire is not an issue).

verdict: uber


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/642.shtml

580 BST Electric Flying with Mischevous Heart (non attacking moves have priority) or (Dream World: Competitive Spirit)

Two obvious comparisons jump to mind: stats are very similar to Azelf.  And naturally there is Zapdos being another 580 BST flying electric.

Priority Taunt.  Well then.  Priority Substitute.  I see.  Priority Nasty Plot.  Well...priority doesn't help here, but like Azelf this is nice.  Priority Toxic; not bad.  On the other hand, doesn't have Explosion or Stealth Rock unlike Azelf, and doesn't have Roost, unlike Zapdos.

Fantastic lead what with the Priority Taunt.  Kinda not the stats you want for Mischevous Heart, though (all speed and attack stats...but when taking advantage of Mischevous Heart speed and attack stats are useless).  Most of the Mischevous Heart tricks are dealt with by "attack the ****er, don't mess around" (like priority sub and priority taunt, and...hell, Nasty Plot too).  Azelf already proves that glass cannon 580 BST pokemon with Nasty Plot can be dealt with, and Azelf brings more cannon to the table with stuff like Explosion.

verdict: OU, but not uber.  Quite highly used in OU as a lead, probably (no Stealth Rocks itself, but can taunt everyone else).  Fundamentally can be dealt with, though (hell, Aerodactyl leads are pretty popular, outspeed, and hit super effectively with STAB).  Actually, I'm not liking the lack of a priority attacking move, as it does get outsped by Azelf and Aerodactyl, who will both have focus sashes and surely kill in two hits.


NINJA'D
Quote
* Taitoro looks in. Meloia/whatever can't start in Step form, has to transform in battle by using an attack (Ancient Song IIRC) according to the info I've been reading.

Oh, well, that's fairly awkward given how one of them is all special attack and one of them is all physical, and you have to waste a move slot and a turn (on a 75 power Normal special move with 10% chance of adding sleep...raised to 20% by serene grace) to get a transform to the big bad physical sweeper.  Probably OU as a whole, then.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on September 24, 2010, 09:49:49 PM
Quote
660 BST Ice Dragon with Pressure

95 speed.  130 in both attack stats.  Tanky.  No W4 (in fact, Ice resists Dragon's Fire weakness, and Dragon resists Ice's Fire weakness, so only four W2s).  Obviously nice STABs, but they overlap a little.  Both Ice and Dragon are stopped by Steel, but Focus Blast exists for that.  Nothing hugely outstanding in support moves.

verdict: uber.  Less automatic than you'd expect for a 660 BST pokemon, but y'know, 95 speed, 130 attack stat with good STABs would be suspicious on a 600 BST pokemon.

I kinda suspect they'll auto-ban him for 660, but that really seems shockingly unimpressive for an uber. 660 isn't as high as it sounds once you realise the 130 atk is pretty much wasted (well, there will probably be some nasty surprise Outrage sets, but the physical coverage is quite poor otherwise, 100% walled by steel), and Focus Blast is never a good thing to have to mention as a possibility on a pokemon's set. Also weak to Stealth Rock, assuming that abomination has persisted unchanged. :( Why is the ice dragon the weak one?


Also WTF physical electric moves that don't suck? This will take some getting used to. I started reading the entry for the electric dragon (not even realising it was an uber at first) and was immediately thinking "Oh, MC, they tried electric with super-high atk in gen 4 (Luxray) and it bombed horribly then, this won't be any different~" until I actually went in and looked at some of those attacks. The 5-PP electric EQ clone was impressive enough, but a move with 110.5 average power? Seriously? That shatters the previous title of strongest drawback-free move (ignoring crits); heck, even RBY Blizzard fell a bit short of that.

Well, it's uber, guess they can do what they want. And yes, I noticed fire is the same after the fact, although special fire wasn't as hard up for attacks as physical electric (in particular, Fire Blast was the co-holder of the aforementioned strongest drawback-free attack title before).

Oh, power creep, you're so silly.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 24, 2010, 10:34:30 PM
I kinda suspect they'll auto-ban him for 660, but that really seems shockingly unimpressive for an uber. 660 isn't as high as it sounds once you realise the 130 atk is pretty much wasted (well, there will probably be some nasty surprise Outrage sets, but the physical coverage is quite poor otherwise, 100% walled by steel)

I don't think you'd want to go pure physical, but mix-sets seem fine, and free you up to Draco Meteor indiscriminantly.  In addition to Outrage there's Dragon Claw, Shadow Claw, and Stone Edge, all of which have proven useable before.  Consider: would you think of this as an impressive possibly Uber pokemon if it was 600 BST with 70 atk instead of 130?  My gut instinct is "probably; that's borderline."

Quote
Also weak to Stealth Rock, assuming that abomination has persisted unchanged.

The bad news: yeah, looks unchanged.
The good news: none of the pokemon so far have it in their learn list (I've been checking), and some pokemon who could learn it in older games can now cannot learn barring trades with older gens (Azelf, for insance).

Quote
Well, it's uber, guess they can do what they want. And yes, I noticed fire is the same after the fact, although special fire wasn't as hard up for attacks as physical electric (in particular, Fire Blast was the co-holder of the aforementioned strongest drawback-free attack title before).

Yeah.  They just had to give it a higher burn rate than Fire Blast too.  What I don't like is that it creeps into Overheat territory--Maaaaybe if you have a choice item and plan to switch out next turn anyway you'd still go overheat, but 130 with 85% accuracy is damn close to 140 with 90% accuracy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on September 24, 2010, 10:53:28 PM
Quote
I don't think you'd want to go pure physical, but mix-sets seem fine, and free you up to Draco Meteor indiscriminantly.  In addition to Outrage there's Dragon Claw, Shadow Claw, and Stone Edge, all of which have proven useable before.  Consider: would you think of this as an impressive possibly Uber pokemon if it was 600 BST with 70 atk instead of 130?  My gut instinct is "probably; that's borderline."

Funnilly enough, I first read it as 600 BST, then got confused when you were calling it tanky (130/130/95 wouldn't leave much room for tank stats on a 600, but I digress...). And I was thinking "yep, can't see that as uber, this is like Garchomp with an important 7 less speed (as well as taking 4x the SR damage in exchange for dropping the W4), and without the awesome self-buff, random evade hax, and with a terrible hole in its offensive game (Focus Blast's hit rate is psyduck and it doesn't even hit weakness on Skarmory, Metagross, or Bronzong)." Of course, reading more closely it has durability on Garchomp, too, but that's still not enough to close the gap on everything else I just listed.

Now, with 130 Atk instead of 70 and the sets that opens up... that might be what it needs to climb into ubers. Maybe. It really does struggle with the aforementioned steel tanks, among others. It's... honestly impressing me less than Salamence or Garchomp or Latias at the moment, certainly (though yes, none of those are OU any more either...). It probably has a leg up on Dragonite (+15 speed and better durability is a big deal, and while it lacks Dragonite's flamethrower and Earthquake options, it does do the hit-either-defence thing better otherwise) though so it's certainly quite good. I could also be underestimating its worth as a tank, since I tend not to think of dragons that way intuitively except for obvious cases.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 25, 2010, 12:32:28 AM
It's... honestly impressing me less than Salamence or Garchomp or Latias at the moment, certainly (though yes, none of those are OU any more either...). It probably has a leg up on Dragonite (+15 speed and better durability is a big deal, and while it lacks Dragonite's flamethrower and Earthquake options, it does do the hit-either-defence thing better otherwise) though so it's certainly quite good. I could also be underestimating its worth as a tank, since I tend not to think of dragons that way intuitively except for obvious cases.

Hm, yeah, may have dismissed this one to ubers too quickly (I was kind-of of the mindset of "660 BST--ehh...I'll write a sentence or two and move on.")  Probably should have given it deeper thought.

First off, let's place the tankiness:

Typeage defencively:
Not weak to: Ice or Fire.  Important, as these are two of the most common coverage moves.  People will often arm their dragon counter with Ice.
Is weak to: Fighting, Rock, Dragon, Steel.  All relatively important (actually, steel in particular, as Meteor Mash and Bullet Punch are definitely hanging around on a lot of likely switch-ins).

Defencive stats:
First a quick note: if you check back to page 2 of this topic, you'll note that the defencive stats want to be weighted more towards HP...which Ice Dragon does excellently at an almost perfect ratio.  It's not the tankiest pokemon ever (only 305 total in defencive stats).  Stats-wise this still puts it defencively above Celebi/Jirachi/Shaymin, Swampert, Heatran, Bronzong, Dusknoir.  Physically similar to Umbreon (obviously Umbreon wins special).  Oh, and it's also relatively close to Deoxys-D in durability (like...surprisingly within 1% or something silly like that.  Oh Deo-D...).  There are tankier balanced defence pokemon in OU (Suicune by about 10%, and obviously Cress by lots) but not too many.

So...yeah.  It's not an impenetrable wall or anything, but durability stats-wise is a notable step above Salamence/Garchomp.  (Obviously both had defencive abilities, though).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on September 25, 2010, 12:53:25 AM
Gamefreak is quite blatantly holding back with Pyurem, as it's ticketed to be the star of version 3. There's about a 99% chance that it'll get a new form like Giratina, with stats pumped up to Reshiram/Zekrom level, plus these two moves:

[M553]: Freeze Bolt
Ice Physical Power: 140 / Accuracy: 90 / 5 PP
Charge-up turn, may cause paralysis (20%)

[M554]: Cold Flare
Ice Special Power: 140 / Accuracy: 90 / 5 PP
Charge-up turn, may cause a burn (20%)

EDIT: Veekun claims that the random status is 30% for these moves, not 20%. Doublechecking my original sources right now.

EDIT2: Apparantly the original translations missed that these are charge-up moves like Sky-Attack. Bah.

They're in the code currently but nothing gets them yet, it's not hard to guess what they're being saved for. They're also blatantly based off Zekrom/Reshiram's signature attacks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 25, 2010, 06:38:09 PM
makes sense.  Forms get tiered individually, though.



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/641.shtml

580 BST Flying with mischevous heart.

Whoo, pure flying.  But nearly identical to the electric flying: a strictly better typing.

VERDICT BL or lower.



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/640.shtml

580 BST Grass Fighting with Heart of Justice

108 speed...and lots of special defence, without the recovery moves to be a serious wall.  Swords Dance but 90 attack stat.  Not much type coverage (walled by poison).

VERDICT...OU or lower.



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/639.shtml

580 BST Rock Fighting with Heart of Justice.

108 speed.  129 Attack.   Swords Dance.  Rock Polish.  Has Earthquake, and good STAB moves.  And...not much else, but that's enough.

Scary, but stoppable, I think.  Water, fighting, and steel all have super effective priority moves, and it can't hit weakness on water or fighting.  The premiere physicl wall, Hippowdon, also can't be hit super effective, and can fire back with a SE STAB Earthquake.

VERDICT...OU and scary




http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/638.shtml

580 BST Steel fighting with Heart of Justice

108 speed, lots of defence.  Swords Dance.  Not much type coverage.  No good recovery moves to make it a particularly problematic tank.  Steels are often a dragon counter, but many dragons are mixed, and bad SDef means Draco Meteor still hurts.  Still, though: an excellent reason to not use Outrage blindly.

VERDICT...OU or below.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on September 25, 2010, 08:22:05 PM
Ciato is demanding politely requesting analyses of the smug snake new starters.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on September 25, 2010, 09:32:36 PM
Smuglord Jaroda's most intriguing option competitively will be its Dream World ability, assuming that gets released eventually. Contrarian reverses all stat modifiers applied to you, which means it can spam Leaf Storm and get +2 SpAtk each time it connects. The downside is that its special movepool is pretty barren otherwise, so you're probably looking at Leaf Storm, Hidden Power of choice, Leech Seed, Substitute or Specs with two filler moves as your only viable movepool options.

For non-Dream World options, Sub + Leech Seed + Torment got some hype on Smogon, and looks kinda interesting on paper. Coil (+1 Attack/Defense/Accuracy) is interesting and it has Leaf Blade for STAB, but again Jaroda's type coverage is limited. Dragon Tail (60 power, negative priority, randomly phazes) might work out if the phazing occurs at a high enough rate.

In summary, Jaroda has high speed and really good buffs but poor coverage, which is a problem when Grass is resisted by so many types; it could benefit a lot from move tutors. If Jaroda were hypothetically translated to the gen 4 metagame with Contrarian, it'd probably make OU since gen 4 standard has become relatively Grass-friendly ever since Latias/Salamence were banned - Shaymin just made the OU list for the first time ever in September, for instance. The gen 5 metagame is looking like it'll be significantly more powerful, though, so I'm guessing it falls to UU, which will be even stronger than the current Milotic/Venusaur/Arcanine/Registeel model.

Ganon Emboar has a buttload of good coverage moves (Head Smash, Boiling Water, Wild Bolt, Grass Knot, just to name a few) but is cursed with 65 speed and has to compete with Speed Boost Blaziken (assuming that's released) and Infernape. I've seen people on Smogon talk about using Nitro Charge to boost speed, but I'm not convinced +1 speed is enough with 65 base, especially since it still needs to run a stronger Fire move like Flare Blitz or Fire Blast alongside it as 50 power isn't enough. I can't see it making headway in OU play. UU might be more promising... but there's a non-negligible chance Infernape falls to UU this gen, which would be rough competition for Emboar.

I've looked over Daikenki several times and can't see what is going to make it stand out compared to the hojillion existing Water types we have. Swords Dance+Megahorn is cute, but 70 base speed sucks and it's not really very tanky.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on September 25, 2010, 09:44:34 PM
Sweeeeeeet.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 25, 2010, 11:49:10 PM
Heh, working backwards has its flaws.  Guess Hinode's covered the starters, though.  Oh, something I read on B8: apparently dream world abilities are breedable, so...yes.



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/637.shtml

550 BST Bug fire with flame body

Oh look, a moth/butterfly in pokemon.  This should be over quick...right?

Nope.  100 speed, 135 SpA.  Fire Dance (80 power, ups your SpA).  Butterfly dance (ups speed, SpA, SpD).  Healing through morning sun.  Good STAB moves.  Coverage...ehh the flying version of Focus Blast, Psychic, Solar beam...so...poor coverage.

Tyranitar seems safe, but boosted HP Fighting threatens. Heatran would also be wary of HP fighting.  Gyardos covers bug, fire, fighting, I guess, and has SpD.   Works...outside of HP electric.  Snorlax with thick fat also should tank long enough to kill thanks to SpD and HP.

VERDICT: OU


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/635.shtml


600 BST Dragon Dark with Levitate

Oh boy.  This series does not have a good track record.

125 SpA, 98 Speed, 105 Atk.  Stat boosting is...Cheer Up.  Worse than Garchomp or Salamence, but good for mixed.  Coverage is...

Spec...Draco Meteor, Dragon Pulse, Dark Pulse, Earth Power, Flamethrower, Fire Blast, Surf, Charge Beam, Focus Blast.

Phys...Head Smash(!!!), Outrage, Crunch, Earthquake, Stone Edge, Dragon Tail (60 power, causes switch out), U-Turn, Fire/Thunder/Ice Fang.

You know, the speed is merely 98, plus Cheer Up is the best booster it has, so that's not great compared to previous bans, but...damn, what do you switch in on this?  Wasn't Salamence problematic for combining Dragon, Earth, and Fire?  This has those three (at 90-140 power off the special stat).  Head Smash means it's not walled by Blissey, either.  (Well...Outrage too).  Only just noticed the Dragon Tail move...exceptional move; slower pokemon can not counter dragons now, I guess?  So...to safely beat, you death fodder into something like Weaville...except without a W4 this time.

VERDICT...Uber.  If we're going by the measure where Salamence is uber, then this likely is too.  Better Draco Meteor, better Flamethrower, slightly worse Earth.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on September 26, 2010, 12:09:38 AM
Dragon Tail has negative priority, same as Roar/Whirlwind.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 26, 2010, 02:49:56 AM
Dragon Tail has negative priority, same as Roar/Whirlwind.

Sense made.  Still good if you expect switching.


http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/632.shtml

484 BST Bug Steel with Swarm or Hustle or TRUANT

109 109 Attack and speed may save it.  Few high power moves, though: more or less cap out at 80 averge output, from stone edge to X-scissor.

VERDICT...UU or NU



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/632.shtml

484 BST fire with flash fire

terrible stat distro.  Slow, frail, mixed attacker.

VERDICT...NU



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/630.shtml

510 BST Dark Flying with an ability that makes it not get hurt from weather effects.

TANK.  110 105 95 defencive stats, 80 speedd, roost, whirlwind, taunt, torment, mean look.

VERDICT...OU, UU, somewhere in there.



http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/628.shtml

510 BST Normal Flying with encourage or competitive spirit.

123 atk  80 speed.  Not as frail as you might expect.  I want to know how those abilities work with superpower.  Does Encourage drop the downside?  Does competitive spirit increase your attack overall when you superpower?

Walled to hell and outsped by Rotom regardless.

Verdict: maybe BL if the abilities do cool things with superpower.  UU otherwise.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2010, 02:25:19 AM
So...I've been roped into playing SC2 late most nights, so naturally it's at the forefront of my mind.  Which brings me to...

wtf Banshees

Let me preface this by going over some RtS math.  If unit A costs twice what unit B does, assuming they are similar in all aspects except for damage and HP, how should their damage and HP differ to make them balanced?  Note that damage and HP kinda combine into just one relative stat here--what's the ratio between the percentage of damage we deal to each other?  I'll call this ratio power.  Obviously, if unit A is 2x the power of unit B, that's not enough--unit B will do a 2-on-1, and unit A will be dead around the time the first of unit B dies.  On the flip side, obviously if unit A is 4x of unit B, that's too much.  When the first B dies, unit A is at half health and then wins from there.  The answer (assuming everyone can shoot at everyone else simultaneously) is triangle math.

for 1x the cost, you need 1 times the power
for 2x the cost, you need 3 (a.k.a. 2+1) times the power
for 3x the cost, you need 6 (a.k.a. 3+2+1) times the power
for 4x the cost, you need 10 (a.k.a. 4+3+2+1) times the power

Or in abstraction:

for Nx the cost, you need (n+1)*n/2 times the power

And no, it's not quite this clean in-game (the smaller unit needs a perfect concave to hit this theoretical value) but let's work with this.

So...anyway,

Banshee: cost: 250, DPS: 19.2, HP: 140
Stalker: cost: 175, DPS: 6.94 (vs light), HP: 160 (+1 def for half of that)
Hydralisk: cost: 150, DPS: 14.46, HP: 80

Power ratio of Banshee to Stalker: 2.319
Power ratio of Banshee to Hydralisk: 2.325

Expected power ratio based on cost ratio for Stalkers: (((10 / 7) + 1) * (10 / 7)) / 2 = 1.73469388
Expected power ratio based on cost ratio for Hydralisks: (((10 / 6) + 1) * (10 / 6)) / 2 = 2.22222222
Expected power ratio based on cost if we also factor in Pylons/Overlords for Stalkers: (((11.5 / 8) + 1) * (11.5 / 8)) / 2 = 1.75195312
Expected power ratio based on cost if we also factor in Pylons/Overlords for Hydralisks: (((11.5 / 7) + 1) * (11.5 / 7)) / 2 = 2.17091837

Which is to say, if your opponent is building nothing but Hydralisks/Stalkers, it is cost effective to be building Banshees as a unit that (mildly) counters them.


I mean, nevermind that Banshees are a high-tech unit, requiring a starport and a tech lab, and so you can't just mass them at the start of the game.  Stop and think about this for a moment--the strong anti-air ground units are actually mildly countered by Banshees cost-wise.


This is before considering the significant advantages Banshees have.  Air units so they can attack anywhere and just beat certain common units like Marauders, Zerglings, Zealots, Roaches, Immortals, Colossi, Tanks.  Cloak so they can sometimes just win.  (And unlike other cloak units, you can't just put a cannon at your ramp and stop them from sneaking into your base).  Hell, comparing them to Dark Templar, DTs out-DPS them 26.6 to 19.2, but DTs are melee ground units with less HP (for basically the same cost).


I mean sure, Banshees can be handled by air units like Mutalisks and Phoenixes, and are held in-check by being late on the tech tree so it's hard to mass them early.  But... seriously... wtf is up with those stats?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on October 14, 2010, 02:35:18 AM
They're basically only held in check because mass producing banshees is hard, yes, as opposed to warping in stalkers or morphing in hydras. Banshees are amazing for their cost.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2010, 11:49:49 PM
Patch out of nowhere.  The one that really bothers me is supply depot required for Barracks.  That just feels so...arbitrarily restrictive.

Quote
Balance


PROTOSS
Buildings
Nexus life and shields increased from 750/750 to 1000/1000.
Void Ray
Damage level 1 increased from 5 to 6 (+4 armored).
Damage level 2 decreased from 10 (+15 armored) to 8 (+8 armored).
Flux Vanes speed upgrade bonus decreased from 1.125 to 0.703.


TERRAN
Buildings
Barracks requirement changed from Command Center to Supply Depot.
Supply Depot life increased from 350 to 400.
Medivac
Acceleration reduced from 2.315 to 2.25.
Speed reduced from 2.75 to 2.5.
Reaper
Nitro Packs speed upgrade now has a Factory Requirement.
Thor
Energy bar removed.
250mm Strike Cannons is now cooldown-based on a 50-second cooldown. Ability starts with cooldown available (useable immediately after upgrade is researched).


ZERG
Buildings
Hatchery life increased from 1250 to 1500.
Lair life increased from 1800 to 2000.
Spawning Pool life increased from 750 to 1000.
Spire life increased from 600 to 850.
Ultralisk Cavern life increased from 600 to 850.
Corruptor
Energy bar removed.
Corruption is now cooldown-based on a 45-second cooldown. Ability starts with cooldown expired (must wait for full 45-second cycle before usable).
Infestor
Fungal Growth now prevents Blink.
Roach
Range increased from 3 to 4.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on October 15, 2010, 12:01:36 AM
...

I JUST MADE THE STAT TOPIC GODDAMNIT BLIZZARD!!!!!!!!!!!

Updates...made buildings harder to destroy, modified the Void Ray damage and speed...a bit slower with the upgrade, level 2 damage is down a bit, level 1 damage up a bit...eh.  The focus is still juggling it at level 3.

Supply Depot being required doesn't...change too much from what I understand.  Just basically forces less rushing, effectively, and nerfs Reaper Rush especially?  Basically delays that rush by an extra...however long it takes to build a Depot!

Nitro Pack requiring Factory is weird...really doesn't make sense to me style-wise, and honestly, upping the cost feels more effective...it's 50/50?  Maybe up it to 75/75 or 100/100 or something like that.  Hell, the above change nerfs Reapers a bit anyway...this feels like they won't be used...granted, maybe they'll be worked in to the actual armies now?

Cooldown for Strike Cannons I like - makes more sense than being energy-based.  Might actually get researched and used now!

...Corruption starting out not available?  Should really be the other way around, and honestly...it's not particularly great, I've found - 20% more damage isn't amazing, unless I am off on calculations - 24 damage un-upgraded Brood Lord shots, 3 more damage on Roach un-upgraded attacks, and it's single-target.  Dropping armour by 2 kind of like Devourers worked in SC1 might be more helpful, honestly.  Granted, still think the Cooldown is better than energy, but it should start usable.  Either way, ST...it's not seeing much use - it will be helpful for big units like Colossi...so I guess that's where Corruptors will be - cements their use more as  Colossus/BATTLECRUISER killer.  Still would like to see the skill made more useful overall.

ROACH RANGE UPGRADE HOLY SHIT.

(http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/4589/idraemotionchart.jpg)


Granted, just my thoughts...I need to actually play them a bit.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 15, 2010, 12:32:03 AM
The Thor and Corruptor changes are actually just removing their weakness to Feedback - the abilities themselves are mostly unchanged, it's an indirect Templar nerf.  Big things in this patch are roach range up and terran earlygame being nerfed into the ground.  (These play into each other, hellions are probably no longer viable vs zerg since they don't outrange roaches now)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on October 15, 2010, 12:42:01 AM
I hadn't seen much Feedback vs. Thors and Corruptors...granted, usually that's because the Protoss have went Colossi and skipped High Templars.  Almost seems like less of an effective use of their energy, since Psionic Storm will hit a group and maybe make them move, can get Vikings and other stuff, etc.    

Corruption still strikes me as kind of crappy...Strike Cannons are kind of decent in theory, but the ability itself, you're right, is never researched...it looks good on paper, at least.

The Roach Range is huge - Reapers can't really kite them anymore.  Hellions still outrange them by 1, IIRC...but yeah, stop to shoot, get hit...man, Roaches are looking like a staple in the Zerg forces now...hopefully not as broken as in the beta.  Seems like Stalkers especially will have more difficulty fighting them.

EDIT: Oh hell, I mis-read the Void Ray change (they use a level 0-1-2, I always thought of it as 1-2-3).  So it looks like...you might use them with your main army now?  So the 2nd charge level, before the final one, is stronger, while the last one is weaker? Seems like people will need to use less micro now, since level 2 comes faster than level 3, and it does decent enough damage...still overall nerf, but more back-ended than front-ended.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 15, 2010, 05:05:49 AM
I really like the VR change.  I play Protoss, and...you can build nothing but stalkers, have them at home, and just die to fully charged VRs on attack move.  I actually won a 1v1 like that: four VRs that charged on a pylon I built, then moved in on the main which had mostly stalkers, some sentries, some Zealots, and a cannon or two.  Whole base and army died.  Stupid stalkers being armoured, and thus destroyed by fully charged VRs.

Now it looks like charged VRs aren't brutally efficient vs stalkers.  Maybe about even efficiency-wise.

Also happy the Void Ray armor specialty exists below full charge.  Just felt weird before.  "These are really good against Armor...oh, wait, never got fully charged.  But they would have been good against your armoured units!!!"

Quote
EDIT: Oh hell, I mis-read the Void Ray change (they use a level 0-1-2, I always thought of it as 1-2-3).  So it looks like...you might use them with your main army now?  So the 2nd charge level, before the final one, is stronger, while the last one is weaker? Seems like people will need to use less micro now, since level 2 comes faster than level 3, and it does decent enough damage...still overall nerf, but more back-ended than front-ended.

I think they mean "level 1-2" when they say level 1.  Didn't test that, however.

EDIT: Tested this.  Yes, it's

level 1-2: 6 (+4)
Level 3: 8 (+8)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Carthrat on October 15, 2010, 01:53:36 PM
I think a void ray does slightly more DPS than a stalker vs. armored before hitting level 2 charge, but they're pretty eh to me right now. I used to want to integrate them into PvP because they take down colossi quickly during large fights, but now I don't really want to build them at all. It's like, I could get a stargate and a voidray for 400/300, or... three more stalkers with some leftover gas. Voidrays no longer have killing power that I can fear and respect, so it's no contest.

Buildings simultaneously got tougher, too, so you have even less chance of sniping a town hall or whatever.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 15, 2010, 02:36:29 PM
I think a void ray does slightly more DPS than a stalker vs. armored before hitting level 2 charge

Correct.  Current DPS values are...

DPS VS Armoured
Stalker: 9.7 DPS
Voidray (uncharged): 16.7 DPS
Voidray (fully charged): 26.7 DPS

DPS VS Light
Stalker: 6.9 DPS
Voidray (uncharged): 10 DPS
Voidray (fully charged): 13.3 DPS

Which is to say, straight up HP and Damage wise Stalkers are more efficient than uncharged voidrays (due to being half the cost).  Stalkers are also slightly less efficient than fully charged Void Rays (just not by an enormous margin anymore).






Other changes: happy about the Nexus HP boost.  I've certainly lost to "Zerglings focus fire my Nexus and my army can't kill them fast enough."

Supply Depot: my reaction is still WTF, but I do have some perspective.  My initial reaction was "no other race is forced to do it in that order", which of course is wrong (Protoss needs a pylon to build a Gateway...although I suppose a Warp Prism would work?  I kinda want to try that now >_>).  The second one is that...let's say you cheeze the hell out of your opponent and go early rax.  This also lets you get an early Orbital Command, and therefore doesn't hurt you as much economically as cheezing with other races.  Still...WTF.

Medivac nerf is probably for high level TvZ--high level Korean games where Terrans were dropping on three Zerg bases at the same time, and zergs were just autolosing.

Reaper--they keep nerfing this unit, and I'm not sure why at this point.  It's not like they've given people any reason to incorporate Reapers into their main army--reapers are only really an earlygame play.  I'd understand if they were making Reapers appealing in some other way, but no, they're just reducing the reasons anyone would ever go reaper.  Obviously they should add a range upgrade that has a starport prerequisite >_>

Thor, Corrupter--yeah, HT nerf.

Fungal Growth--You could blink while under that? >_>

Roach--obviously a Zerg buff more than anything (Zergs were already building roaches to tank for their other units, but as previously discussed in this topic Roaches aren't great, just what Zerg has in the area of tanking).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on October 15, 2010, 02:58:41 PM
Nah, what Reapers REALLY need is a HP upgrade that requires Fusion Core.  THEN THEY WILL BE DURABLE ENOUGH TO BE USED IN THE MAIN ARMY!!!!!!!! 

Honestly, I love Reapers as a concept, but I've only seen...2 games that incorporated them into the actual army?  They have lots of theoretical uses, but really, they are (before the patch) a raider, and now...mmm...still a Raider, but the combined Barracks + Nitro Pack nerf (seriously, WTF at the Factory requirement...Engineering Bay would make more sense to me) makes me think we won't be seeing much early Terran play like we have before.  Granted, I've been randoming in Custom Games and getting Protoss/Zerg and haven't played Terran since before Siege Tanks got nerfed, so maybe this isn't as impactful as it looks. 

The building HP boosts are overall ok, though the Zerg tech structures...mmm...is ok.  The Nexus/Command Centre/Hatchery should be durable, but tech structures should be less.  They still die faster, but are now a bit more durable, so one might actually save things from a Marauder snipe drop (which...with slower Medivacs, helps!).

Medivacs, now...you have to be careful with stimpack movement, as you will outrun them badly.  They stay with your army a bit better if you're using a mass control-group-move, which seems like a benefit to me.  Definitely feels like a drop nerf to me...which...eh.  Good and bad - as long as it doesn't completely rape the strategy potential, ok.  It shouldn't although, again, I will have to see.

Roach range I still think is going to be HUGE...and GSL 2 starts soon, doesn't it?  Man, Korean Roach openings will be interesting to see.  Probably more effective overall than giving them 2 armour or more durability.  This lets more of them get in range, and probably makes force fields a little less effective against them...can they fire over the destructible rocks now on some of the maps (like...Blistering Sands)?  Might help hold off someone smashing your rocks from behind if Roaches can fire over that now.

Still think Corruption is kind of crappy...make it a small AoE (like...1 range diametre or something), and it suddenly might mean people use Corruptors for more than killing Colossi.

Otherwise...still waiting on making Carriers usable >_> 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 06, 2010, 04:59:34 PM
Probably won't get too verbose as this risks not getting copied to the next forum but...

Dreamhack happened, and Terrans used Tanks against Protoss.  Like...every game.  (For their part, Protoss seemed to almost all go Storm, which is also a meta shift).

For a while, there seemed to be some impression that Tanks are bad in SC2, and I'm not sure where this comes from.  Unsieged Tanks are certainly much improved, with a cooldown comparable to stimmed Marauders (in fact, 6 pop of unsieged tanks does about the same damage as 6 pop of stimmed Marauders; slightly less against armoured).  In fact: fun fact--if you're just trying to clear out buildings quickly, don't siege (the opposite of SC1, where siege mode had more DPS).  Siege Mode...has a slightly faster firing rate than SC1.  This makes it better against small units than SC1 (against whom it deals 35 in both games) and fractionally worse against armoured due to 50 per hit rather than 70 per hit.  (And of course Siege Tanks are a little more expensive between 25 more gas and 3 supply.  Not enough to stop their midgame use, although yes, the maxed army of nothing but 3/3 Siege Tanks is no longer a good idea the way it was in SC1)

The big downside of Siege Tanks in SC2 has always been army mobility compared to MMM, but on the other hand, as was the case in SC1: if you get siege tanks to your opponent's natural, you win.  Naama (the guy who won Dreamhack) set this up in the following way: cloaked Banshees.  Cloaked Banshees force the opponent to huddle inside his or her base, which allows Tanks to siege up outside of the opponent's natural.  And...that's pretty much GG.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on January 10, 2011, 03:18:22 AM
Probably won't get too verbose as this risks not getting copied to the next forum but...

Dreamhack happened, and Terrans used Tanks against Protoss.  Like...every game.  (For their part, Protoss seemed to almost all go Storm, which is also a meta shift).

For a while, there seemed to be some impression that Tanks are bad in SC2, and I'm not sure where this comes from.  Unsieged Tanks are certainly much improved, with a cooldown comparable to stimmed Marauders (in fact, 6 pop of unsieged tanks does about the same damage as 6 pop of stimmed Marauders; slightly less against armoured).  In fact: fun fact--if you're just trying to clear out buildings quickly, don't siege (the opposite of SC1, where siege mode had more DPS).  Siege Mode...has a slightly faster firing rate than SC1.  This makes it better against small units than SC1 (against whom it deals 35 in both games) and fractionally worse against armoured due to 50 per hit rather than 70 per hit.  (And of course Siege Tanks are a little more expensive between 25 more gas and 3 supply.  Not enough to stop their midgame use, although yes, the maxed army of nothing but 3/3 Siege Tanks is no longer a good idea the way it was in SC1)

The big downside of Siege Tanks in SC2 has always been army mobility compared to MMM, but on the other hand, as was the case in SC1: if you get siege tanks to your opponent's natural, you win.  Naama (the guy who won Dreamhack) set this up in the following way: cloaked Banshees.  Cloaked Banshees force the opponent to huddle inside his or her base, which allows Tanks to siege up outside of the opponent's natural.  And...that's pretty much GG.

Month late, but that was before Protoss players realized that the phoenix was useful. (already natural counter to banshees and wrecks tank play as well, plus vikings don't counter them very well.)

Don't get me wrong, banshees are good - perhaps criminally good - but tanks have so many issues vs P (twilight council upgraded gateway units don't do badly against them at all, phoenix gets them, immortals hard counter them, colossi actually fight them just FINE despite hype for splash damage, etc.) that it's hard to call them good in that matchup. It's more like "They can be used in certain situations".

Tanks don't nearly have the dominance in SC2 they have in SC1 because battles end in a blink of an eye in comparison, which means your immobility and your crucial windows of being vulnerable are that much more glaring, on top of the other issues stated. They're still pivotal in TvT and see enough use in TvZ that I'd retract earlier statements where I thought they were pretty trashy, but I'd heavily approve of a tank buff and a marine/rauder nerf as far as game design goes. Vs P though... they just don't really work out that well.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 10, 2011, 03:09:33 PM
Battles being over in a blink of an eye would make them better than in SC1, in theory.  Range 13 is still a huge selling point of Tanks.  It means that in large enough numbers, Tanks beat everything on the ground, including Immortals.

Not really relevant for earlygame pushes, sure, but in those cases, Tanks are usually supported by Bio, and Marines chew through Immortals fine.

Phoenixes in response to Banshees...the problem there is that if the initial Banshee is followed up by a big bio push, then a poenix player is in a lot of trouble.  Now, planning to go Phoenix is a little different: you can compensate for the smaller army with cannons, etc.  But I'm skeptical about reacting "hey look, a banshee.  I guess I ought to build a starport now."

On Phoenixes as a Tank counter...we're talking about a 150/100 cost unit disabling a 150/125 cost unit.  Helpful, sure, but the rest of your army had better beat the rest of their army, so you can't have just gateway units and phoenixes, as gateway units will lose to Bio of similar numbers.  Phoenixes in combination with Colossus or High Templar, though, sure.

Colossus vs Tanks...you're right that their comparative damage numbers aren't bad; one Colo might actually beat two Tanks if the Tanks were bunched up wrong.  And massive units will naturally do fine vs splash.  To me it seems like more of a range issue.  Colo doesn't like getting hit on the way in, or on the way out if it has to retreat.

While we're at it, I've heard of motherships used as a Tank response too.  Breaks the contain, and cloak can negate range advantages sometimes.

On general rebalancing, yes, Terran Bio should probably be nerfed, in exchange for more of an endgame.  I certainly have heard it argued that once you have MMM, your army is as strong as it's going to get.  I would look less to Tanks to fix this (themselves a midgame unit) and more to the far ends of the tech tree.  Ravens, Battlecruisers, Ghosts.  They get used from time to time, sure, but they don't have the same impact as high templar, say.  I'm thinking like a Hunter Seeker Missile buff or Yamato buff.  AoE Yamato could be pretty funny, actually.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 10, 2011, 04:16:03 PM
Speaking of endgames...wtf Zerg endgame.

Creep spread will often cover much of the map by endgame.  A big bonus to movement, vision, etc.
Larva inject lets you store up to 19 larva per hatchery, letting you rebuild your entire army instantly if you have, say, four hatcheries.
You can do a lot on 0 food, like mobile spinecrawler armies, Overseers, Nydus Worms.
Brood Lords and Ultralisks are good units.

Thing is, a lot of this stuff is just inherent to the design.  That's just how creep tumors, larva inject, spine crawlers, changelings, Nydus worms, and so on work. Sure, you can nerf Broodlords and Ultras (already happened a few times) but this doesn't change the core design.

The one real weakness I see is unspectacular anti-air.  (Apparently Void Rays are used against Zerg in the lategame; cost effective vs Corruptors, and neither Hydras nor Mutas are great lategame).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on January 10, 2011, 09:53:43 PM
Battles being over in a blink of an eye means that if you're caught even remotely out of position with your tanks, you're basically guaranteed to lose them (unless your army is strong enough that you can engage the enemy unsieged with your bioball and come out, in which case quite frankly you should've just went for more marauders and made that even more decisive). Unlike in SC1 where you can move out and quasi-react with siege and not lose your entire army, the same situation isn't really true in SC2. Distances are closed and units just plain die a lot faster. If your tanks weren't already taking advantage of the 13 range from the get-go, they're in serious trouble.

(For the PvT matchup in particular and more SC1 comparisons - the other big thing is that without mines, Terran mid-field scouting ability is significantly hindered, so knowing where to siege up and how to move out is a more difficult job now, since a big part of their role was that you'd see where P's units were and be able to react accordingly. That in combination with the above just really rams the point down.)

Colossus are just plain durable enough that they don't care all that much about getting shot by tanks, and their main purpose is to kill the bio in front of them, a job at which they still do relatively unfettered (unless you have a LOT of tanks. But you're hyping the tank as a midgame unit here). The usual scenario that happens there is that all of the bio dies (because colossi kill them way faster than tanks kill protoss infantry), and even suffering significant gateway unit losses, toss can still 1. warp more in instantly and 2. tanks by themselves die badly to just about anything.

EDIT: Basically, the reason vikings are considered the counter to colossi is that they can engage them from a different angle than your bioball, and thus be able to force retreats or get kills without letting the things get within frying range of your ground army. Tanks have no such luck - they must be escorted/covered by the bioball or risk being picked off, and losing your expensive tanks hurts like crazy, much more than losing the mass reactor-produced less-gas-intensive vikings.

Ravens are a joke for endgame viability (PDD gets relatively worse, not better, and Feedback rapes both it and the raven itself - with templar being the popular option at endgame this is bad). Ghosts are practically a necessity, not a late option (why the hell they aren't used more is beyond me), and in fact they are at their strongest early on when you can get a lot done with just one or two Ghosts, as opposed to lategame where you can only build them so fast while Protoss has Amulet-warp in storm-ready HT at their fingertips (not to mention getting in position to use EMP effectively against lategame formations is far harder than getting off a couple of incredibly damaging storms).

BCs, um, die to void rays. Not much to say there (if VRs didn't exist it'd be less of a concern). If we're talking large critical mass things (where BCs are at their best) then.... yeah, mass VRs is pretty much scarier and also handles vikings pretty well to boot. The lack of good T endgame options (particularly vs P) is something I've been wrangling with Rat for a while now and BCs definitely came up as probably the only quasi-realistic option at the moment, but I don't think they really cut it. AoE Yamato would be GREAT - any form of strong AoE (whether an improved HSM or tanks just flat out being better) in return for an MMM nerf would be pretty swell in my eyes.

On Z: Yes they're stupidly good at endgame. This is often touted as their biggest strength. Z is the most defensive, macro-oriented race in the game.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 10, 2011, 11:14:21 PM
Oh I see: you're saying movement is higher in SC2.  That makes more sense.  (I thought you were saying damage was higher relative to HP, which...it really isn't.  Stim is only a 50% attack rate boost not 100%.  Zerglings attack slower.  Stalkers deal less damage than Dragoons.  One Reaver shell hurts much worse than one Colossus laser, and you can't stick two Colossi in a shuttle like Reavers.  Pretty sure it's easier to get out from under Storm now; not sure if Storm deals damage slower or movement is faster.  Old Hydras basically became Roaches, with more HP and less DPS.  New Hydras are admittedly glass cannons.  Sentries serve to make fights longer.  Photon Cannons have more HP.  Archons deal less damage.  Both Robo units have way more HP than Reavers.  Three Goliaths don't have collectively as much HP as one Thor.  Thor has more ground damage, but less air damage than three Goliaths...although splash....  Infestor has more HP than Defiler, but less armour.  Terran Bio has more HP.  Spider Mines are gone.  Protoss shields no longer take full damage from everything.  Oh, they also regenerate faster.  Hellions deal less damage to light than Vultures, but they splash.  Hellions also have more HP...but probably less relative to their cost.  Siege Tank damage is down, and HP is up.  Ghost has double the HP and damage...but costs way more too).

Airforce probably deals more, but a lot has been done to encourage mixing air units into your army, so this is no surprise.

So...yeah, I was scratching my head about the blink of an eye comment, but more mobility I'd buy.  Especially when there's nothing as dumb as Dragoons, and very little that walks slower than a Marine (Thor, High Templar, off-creep Queen/Spore/Spine).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on January 10, 2011, 11:19:43 PM
I wasn't really thinking about numbers when I made that statement, and more the general sense that in practically every game of SC2 I play, battles end really fast, whereas in SC1 they didn't. Things like missing a stim or a forcefield in a handful of seconds literally makes engagements go sour for one side.

I THINK it's partly the mobility and partly the much superior grouping and pathfinding that means everyone fights each other basically right away, which makes them conclude that much more quickly. Also, ladder maps are smaller as well, so these clashes happen pretty easily (and look at the number of base trades that happens relative to SC1, and how fast they go down...)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on January 11, 2011, 02:22:11 AM
Sentries serve to make fights longer and win them.

Just adding that in.  (And saying it as somebody who initially disdained sentries for anything but ramp-blocking or Marine-spoiling.)  Which is not to say my micro with sentries is perfect yet, but I've seen enough times where well-placed FFs cut an army and half and the front half dies horribly unsupported.  Part of the whole "things die faster now" bit I guess.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 11, 2011, 03:38:15 AM
Sentries are obviously good.  Like...Guardian Shield: who doesn't want +2 armour?  Hallucination also offers some of the best scouting.  Force Field is probably their best use, but even without it they're obviously something you might want.

And...I'm still not entirely convinced on battles happening faster.  I just have memories  of losing 7 units to a spider mine I somehow missed.  Not to mention Reavers.  They tell you to make Hydras against reavers, as units that can't hit air can't stop the shuttle micro.  All fine and good, but if I mess up my micro even once...then half my army dies to one scarab.  And Mutas, which have barely changed, felt fragile as hell in SC1, like you could lose your entire group in one misclick.  Less so in SC2, with the stim nerf, the lack of irradiate, storm seeming easier to dodge, Archons nerfed, and Corsairs being gone.

The lack of base trades in SC2 is noteworthy, though.  I'm sure the maps are partially to blame (the idea that your armies won't cross each other in an SC2 sized map is silly).  Drops seem less popular except possibly for Terran; Protoss strangely ignoring the new shuttle, and Zerg usually getting a Nydus worm instead, which allows for retreat and defend very quickly.  Kinda like Muta harrass.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 17, 2011, 02:55:45 PM
So...one thing that's caught my attention recently: completely ridiculous Mario World hacks.  They've taken a step beyond Kaizo (the "lol, look how hard I am", which honestly isn't very interesting to me) and stepped more into an exploration of what's possible--what the limits are of the game system.

A leading example being Item Abuse:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvY1MNF26-w

Which seems to be as much about showing off glitches as anything else.  (There's also an Item Abuse 2, which has one or two glitches that weren't done in IA1, but it's mostly more of the same).


Then there's Cool or Cruel.  I don't know why, but I just find the game design of this game cute to look at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOH5jJAvxDg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7jrzcYj9oA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqg2Gkx4ckQ

One thing I do like about what this game does (other than obvious style) is that it seems to actually show outlines on the invisible blocks.  I'll accept the existence of invisible blocks to make some interesting jumps, but there's no reason they should be invisible.  The IWBTG style "LOL, I screwed you" is funny to see once, but especially when I'm watching someone else's successful run (which is the only way I'm likely to experience Cool or Cruel) it's nice to see what they're actually dealing with.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 17, 2011, 06:29:27 PM
So...a few things I've noticed on SC2.

First, for 2v2, Marauder Zealot is a very good earlygame combo.  Concussive shells means you can't kite/run from the Zealots.  (By extension, Marauder Baneling is probably superb too).

Second, Colossus are really good lategame units.  I'm sure you're thinking "well duh", but stop and think: what are desireable lategame qualities?
AoE (check, perhaps best in game)
Resistane to AoE (check: large size, and top five HP for a ground unit across all races).
Range (check, can fight for #2 here)
Mobility (Decent.  Probably about average.  Walks a little slow, but has cliffwalking).
Mana (Nope).

Now compare that to other options.  High Templar and Siege Tanks and Ghosts have serious mobility issues and are much less resistant to AoE.  Archons, and Ultralisks have decent mobility and AoE resistance, but no range.  Hellions and Banelings need to be suicidal to use their AoE fully, and don't resist AoE themselves (that said, hellions have mobility.  They lack stats, but large groups of hellions will beat, say, large groups of even armoured units like Stalkers provided they can get close to AoE).

Anyhow, Colossi are just everything you could want in a lategame unit.  You could nerf them pretty hard (drop their damage a bunch) to the point that they were no longer viable in the midgame, and I suspect we'd still see them pulled out in 30 minute games.  (As is, Blizzard seems happy to just provide air units with bonus damage to massive to keep Colossi in check).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 20, 2011, 08:15:16 AM
Yup.  In a 2v2 push, I'll generally pump more Zealots than usual if I'm playing Protoss.  They tank well for terran bio support, too, which when stimmed is notably more deadly than stalkers.  And Colossi are great, yes.  My default 2v2 tech vs. good players is Robo, since you want Obs anyway, and Colossi work against their hordes.  (vs. worse players when part of teams in the lower leagues, just go Council->Dark Shrine and warp in 4 DTs, then send them to the back of the opposing mains + expos.  Always hilarious, but this is countered by them pushing earlier, which is hard to count on against competent opposition.)

Banelings require fairly precise control in 2v2, as you're going up against a ball that is potentially twice the size it normally would be early, and thus can mow down unsupported banelings before they blow easily.  It's even more imperative than usual to hit from multiple angles simultaneously with 'em.

I'd say that mass Hellion, even microed well to get MT damage (which does not happen if you A-move!), should only beat Stalkers under weird circumstances.  Stalkers outrange them and tank their damage magnificently.  They may also have Blink, too.  You are almost always better off just retreating your Hellions and building Marauders in such circumstances, even without the MT, unless the Stalkers are literally in your base and Hellions are all you have. 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 21, 2011, 05:12:28 PM
Direct 1v1 no-micro matchups...

My methods were as follows: calculate the time needed for one unit to lower the other unit to 0 HP.  Compare the two times; this is the combat ratio.  No attack/defence upgrades (usually they don't change much).  No abilities used.  Yes passive upgrades (combat shield for Marines).  Notice that this does not directly translate into a cost ratio--generally if you outnumber n:1, you can take on something which outstats you by a ratio of n*(n+1)/2:1.  Cost ratio is just "add their mineral and gas counts; take ratio".  With about 30 units, there's about 435 matchups, so I'll stick to the close ones.

Marine vs Sentry:
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Sentry wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:3
(Marines are cost efficient)

Landviking vs Roach:
Combat Ratio: 1.1:1 (Viking wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:2.25
(Roaches are cost efficient)

Landviking vs Hydralisk:
Combat Ratio: 1.4:1 (Viking wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.5
(Hydralisks are cost efficient)

Roach vs Hydralisk:
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Roach wins)
Cost Ratio: 1.5:1

Colossus vs Archon
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Colossus wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.25 (or 1:1 if made from DTs)
(Technically, if you can spread them flawlessly so that they never get splashed while still focus firing, then 5 HT-morphed archons beat 4 colossi, making them mildly cost-efficient.  Good luck pulling that off.)

Stalker vs Hydralisk
Combat Ratio: 1.1:1 (Stalker wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.17
(Hydralisks are cost efficient)

Stalker vs Roach
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Stalker wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.75
(Roaches are cost efficient)

Marauder vs Hydralisk
Combat Ratio: 1.15:1 (Hydralisk wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.2
(Marauders are cost efficient.  ...Without stim.)

Marauder vs Stalker
Combat Ratio: 1.1:1 (Marauder wins, but it's closer than I thought; though again, this is without stim)
Cost Ratio: 1.4:1

Marauder vs Landviking
Combat Ratio: 1.2:1 (Marauder wins)
Cost Ratio: 1.8:1

Stalker vs Landviking
Combat Ratio: 1.1:1 (Stalker wins)
Cost Ratio: 1.5:1

Thor vs Ultralisk
Combat Ratio: 1.2:1 (Ultralisk wins...but not by much)
Cost Ratio: 1:1

Archon vs Ultralisk
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Ultralisk wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.25


And for some fliers.....

Viking vs Phoenix
Combat Ratio: 1.3:1 (Phoenix wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.11
(Phoenixes are cost efficient)

Viking vs Corruptor
Combat Ratio: 1.1:1 (Corruptor wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.11
(Vikings are cost efficient)

Viking vs Mutalisk
Combat Ratio: 1.4:1 (Viking wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.12
(Vikings are cost-efficient)

(uncharged)Void Ray vs Phoenix
Combat Ratio: 1.6:1 (Void Ray wins)
Cost Ratio: 1:1.6
(Phoenixes are cost efficient...although they're pretty much tied if the VR is fully charged)

Mutalisk vs Void Ray
Combat Ratio: 2.7:1 (Void Ray wins)
cost ratio: 1:2
(Mutas are only barely cost efficient, and not if the VR is fully charged).

Viking vs Void Ray
Combat Ratio: 2.4:1 (Void Ray wins)
cost ratio: 1:1.78
(Almost tied for cost efficiency...until fully charged when VR's damage spikes against armored)

Corruptor vs Void Ray
Combat Ratio: 2.3:1 (Void Ray wins)
cost ratio: 1:1.6
(VR's are flat out cost efficient here, even not fully charged).

That's all for now; wtf Void Rays.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 28, 2011, 04:25:22 PM
Hm, so since it's not feasible to do every single comparison, I went and did an approximation.

Roughly speaking, this first list is durability*DPS, but it also accounts for stuff like burst damage (i.e. in Starcraft 1 it doesn't matter that Siege Tanks shoot once per minute, they've already OHKOed you with the first shot).  It accounts for stuff like armor (with some best-guesses for stuff like Immortals).  You'll also notice that there's multiple versions of some units, like Immortal A and Immortal (the "A" stands for their damage against armored units).  Brood Lords I just assumed that people focused down the Brood Lords and took full damage from the Broodlings.

Planetary_Fortress:41.91
Ultralisk A:23.35
Battlecruiser land:19.42
Thor ground:18.12
Battlecruiser air:13.98
Immortal A:13.39
Carrier:9.01
Mothership:8.56
Ultralisk:8.24
Archon Bi:6.52
Spore_Crawler:5.82
Missile_Turret:5.56
Void Ray A Charged:5.32
Spine Crawler A:5.27
Thor L air:5.17
Colossus:5.07
Brood_Lord:4.31
Archon:4.23
Spine_Crawler:4.18
Photon_Cannon:3.97
Immortal:3.96
Siege Tank A TM:3.42
Dark_Templar:3.15
Void Ray A:3.1
Siege Tank A SM:3.06
Void Ray Chrarged:2.41
Thor air:2.35
Phoenix L:2.22
Corruptor Ma:2.04
Siege Tank TM:1.86
Banshee:1.86
Siege Tank SM:1.83
Void_Ray:1.73
Stim Marauder A:1.72
Zealot:1.42
Marauder A:1.39
Corruptor:1.35
Viking A air:1.23
Queen Air:1.19
Stalker A:1.18
Auto-Turret:1.1
Viking land:1.03
Phoenix:1
Ghost L:0.97
Roach:0.94
Queen Land:0.93
Viking air:0.83
Stalker:0.8
Stim Marauder:0.77
Hydralisk:0.75
Hellion L:0.65
Marauder:0.62
Reaper Bu:0.59
Mutalisk:0.59
Reaper L:0.47
Ghost:0.44
Sentry:0.3
Infested_Terran:0.26
Stim Marine:0.25
Marine:0.21
Reaper:0.18
Hellion:0.18
Zergling (attack rate upgrade):0.14
Zergling:0.12
Broodling:0.08
SCV:0.08
Drone:0.07
Probe:0.07

Next, the efficiency list.  Basically, I took the gas and mineral cost, added those together, then took the above number and divided it by (cost+100)*cost.  This is by no means a perfect formula (it somewhat underrates the five units that cost less than 100 minerals, namely Marines, Zerglings, and workers--four Zerglings totally beat one Roach, for an equal cost example.  Stuff that costs 100+ should be reasonable, though).  Oh yeah, buildings; I included the cost of the drone/CC in the cost of the crawlers and PF.

Missile_Turret:2.78
Spore_Crawler:2.07
Spine Crawler A:1.4
Spine_Crawler:1.12
Photon_Cannon:1.06
Immortal A:0.85
Ultralisk A:0.78
Planetary_Fortress:0.75
Zealot:0.71
Stim Marauder A:0.61
Thor ground:0.6
Marauder A:0.49
Roach:0.47
Zergling (attack rate upgrade):0.45
Zergling:0.38
Dark_Templar:0.36
Battlecruiser land:0.35
Siege Tank A TM:0.33
Stim Marine:0.33
Archon Bi:0.33
Hellion L:0.32
Queen Air:0.32
Siege Tank A SM:0.3
Reaper Bu:0.3
Marine:0.28
Stim Marauder:0.28
Ultralisk:0.27
Void Ray A Charged:0.27
Phoenix L:0.25
Immortal:0.25
Battlecruiser air:0.25
Queen Land:0.25
Stalker A:0.24
Reaper L:0.23
Corruptor Ma:0.23
Marauder:0.22
Banshee:0.21
Archon:0.21
Hydralisk:0.2
Siege Tank TM:0.18
Siege Tank SM:0.18
Thor L air:0.17
Colossus:0.17
Viking A air:0.17
Stalker:0.17
Carrier:0.16
Void Ray A:0.16
Corruptor:0.15
Viking land:0.14
Brood_Lord:0.12
Void Ray Chrarged:0.12
Mothership:0.12
Phoenix:0.11
Viking air:0.11
SCV:0.1
Mutalisk:0.1
Reaper:0.09
Hellion:0.09
Drone:0.09
Probe:0.09
Void_Ray:0.09
Ghost L:0.08
Sentry:0.08
Thor air:0.08
Ghost:0.04

A few surprises.  Carriers are pretty bad compared to Battlecruisers.  They deal more damage, but 550 HP instead of 450 HP, and all of that has 3 armor instead of some 0 armor, some 2 armor.  Thors suck against air; I had assumed they were better because they're supposed to be the new Goliath.  (Although sure: they splash).  Vikings are not as good in the air as I thought (really low firing rate; they need to kite against a lot of stuff) but better on the ground than I thought.  Ignoring stuff like range and movement and spellcasting, Queens are overall better in combat stats than Hydralisks.  175 HP and 1 armor = unholy tank.  I had been mentally comparing Roaches to Zealots, and thinking "I know Roaches have a bit more range, but Zealots just outstat"--as it happens, being near-Zealot level makes Roaches pretty damn efficient.  Thor is the best unit to be neither melee nor specializing in a specific damage type.  I'm a little surprised the Siege Tank Armored is so much higher than the Colossus--might just be a result of the burst damage calculation (which assumes an armored unit with about 140 HP, but Colo has 350 which can soak up the burst).

(Interestingly, Corruptors and Vikings have a pretty close match.  Phoenixes and Vikings have a pretty close match.  Corruptors crush Phoenixes, but go fairly even with uncharged Void Rays.  Void Rays and Mutas are pretty even.  Vikings and uncharged Void Rays are pretty even.  Phoenixes and Void Rays are pretty even.  Phoenixes crush mutas.  Carriers and Vikings are pretty even.  It feels like they went out of their way to make air-to-air fairly even).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 19, 2011, 11:17:37 PM
Desktop Dungeons

Yeah, it was only a matter of time....

Spell efficiencies!  Assuming a normal run--fighting the boss around level 8-9, the most boringest class/race ever (so like...Goblin-Fighter) and a default boss (i.e. one of the ones that deals 75 damage) how efficient are all of the spells?

BURNDAYRAZ: 0.67 damage per mana per level
HALPMEH: 0.72 damage per mana per level
CYDSTEPP: 0.65 damage per mana per level
BYSSEPS: 0.75 damage per mana per level

Halpmeh varies considerably on the damage output of the boss, of course (much better against low-damage bosses provided it doesn't mana burn...).

What about for a Berserker, though, whose usual math is screwed because they add +2 MP to everything?  (Still assuming Goblin and ignoring deity).  I will also assume that the enemy is higher level and thus Berserker triggers that extra bonus.

BURNDAYRAZ: 0.5 damage per mana per level
HALPMEH: 0.63 damage per mana per level
HALPMEH vs mage boss: 1.37 damage per mana per level
CYDSTEPP: 0.79 damage per mana per level
BYSSEPS: 0.37

As you might expect, adding 2 to all mana costs makes less expensive glyphs trashier, and more expensive glyphs less trashy.  Having high physical attack emphasizes glyphs that push attacking (to the point that cydstepp is more mana-efficient on a Goblin-Berserker than a Goblin-Human).  And naturally, high damage resistance makes healing more efficient.

The next obvious question is...what happens in the other direction, for the Wizard where all spells cost one less?  (But attack power is lower).

BURNDAYRAZ: 0.8 damage per mana per level
HALPMEH: 0.87 damage per mana per level
CYDSTEPP: 0.58 damage per mana per level
BYSSEPS: 1.5 damage per mana per level

This is perhaps an unintuitive result--on, say, an Elf-Wizard, you're better ditching your attack magic, to go slap the opponent around with healing and strength buffs.


The relative value of halpmeh vs cydstepp in general depends entirely on enemy damage--it doesn't matter if you're human and are buffing your strength.  Obviously the relative value of these glyphs compared to attack magic does depend pretty heavily on your strength.  Bysseps is actually quite independent.  Outside of little buffs like Fine Sword, it's always going to add 1.5 damage per level (much the same way Burndayraz always deals 4 damage per level).  The key problem with bysseps is that it doesn't self-stack.  If you want to spend all your mana on Bysseps, you'd better have some plan to get a lot of physical attacks (Halfling Priest!)  (In practice, I find that if I'm human it's usually better to just convert Bysseps for the damage buff than to actually keep the glyph...once I have another damage dealing glyph that I can sink all my mana into, of course).


Hmm...more to come later.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 20, 2011, 03:08:51 AM
Desktop Dungeons

How much damage can you deal to a boss without mana?  (Ceil(PlayerHP/BossDmg) - 1)*PlayerDmg

Where PlayerHP is the total HP available including through potions.  And obviously this changes a bit if the boss damage is more than player max HP (or even if it's close to the max HP as there will be a tendency to waste potions).


So...let's look at these at level 9 against a typical 75 HP physical boss, assuming conversion of all but one glyph, and again this is only touching physical damage, no magic damage or spellcasting noted here at all.

Standard vanilla (goblin Fighter): 4x58 = 232
Attack vanilla (Human Fighter): 4x76 = 304
Defence vanilla (Dwarf Fighter): 5x58 = 290
Potion vanilla (Halfling Fighter): 6x58 = 348
Max out power (Human Berserker): 4x103 = 412
Balanced Berserker (Dwarf Berserker): 5x85 = 425
Potion Berserker (Halfling Berserker): 6x85 = 510
Standard Monk (Human Monk): 8x54 = 432
Potion Monk (Halfling Monk): 13x36 = 468
Max defence stats Monk (Dwarf Monk): 10x36 = 360
Potion Thief (Halfling Thief): 11x63 = 693
Attack Thief (Human Thief): 8x85 = 680
HP Thief (Dwarf Thief): 11x63 = 693
Priest...is a weird case as their potions full-heal.  If they could somehow use 100% of that healing, and still take Halfling, then 16*58 = 928.  Realistically...can't take two boss hits, so one hit between each potion makes for more like 9x58 = 522.  Dwarf actually does marginally better at these very specific numbers, only because it can survive two hits (so gets 10x58 = 580).
Standard Rogue (Dwarf Rogue): ignoring dodge and first strike: 3x81 = 243.  With first strike: 324.  With one dodge (60% chance!): 405
(All other Rogues actually get OHKOed by the standard boss at level 9...).
I said physical boss, right? (Halfling Paladin): 9x58 = 522
Let's just compare... (Human Paladin): 5x81 = 405
And for completeness (Dwarf Paladin) 7x58 = 406
(Of course, once you allow for the extra attacks granted by the healing spell, Human is slightly better than Halfling for Paladin...and Dwarf is not worth mentioning).

So...yeah.  Dwarf is...solid for balancing out a character that emphasizes offences over defence (like Berserker and Rogue), but is otherwise quite possibly underpowered (only boosts end-game potion use, not healing spells or exploration regen, and is often worse than Human even in the end game!)  Halfling is, as it should be, often the best boss-killer, because it certainly doesn't do anything before the boss.  In fact, I was surprised how often Halfling was the best (Monk, for instance, I assumed was just auto Human; apparently not).  But hey, if you're a level lower when you fight the boss because you picked Halfling?  That would put the class behind.  This also doesn't account for mid-fight level-ups, which are basically free heals (and free heals make the race of extra healing...less special).

Should do magic next...
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 20, 2011, 03:03:12 PM
Magic!

In general, the most relevant stat here is how much mana you have available.  There's not really any such thing as magic attack (although some physical characters in combination with healing or reraise effects deal more damage per mana).

Mana also varies immensely, since deity choice can more than double it.

Same system--assume the conversion of all-but-one glyph, level 9, using all mana potions, and...go:

Typical Berserker (physical Berserker): 33 mana (144 damage with fireballs)
Generic (goblin Fighter): 33 mana (180 damage with fireballs)
Generic elf (Elf Fighter): 53 mana (288 damage with fireballs)
6 Glyph elf (Elf Warlord): 59 mana (324 damage with fireballs)
Generic Gnome (Gnome Fighter): 53 mana (288 damage with fireballs)
6 Glyph Gnome (Gnome Warlord): 58 mana (324 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd Generic Elf (Elf Fighter w/ PM): 79 mana (468 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd Generic Gnome (Gnome Fighter w/ PM): 95 mana (540 damage with fireballs)
Typical Wizard (Elf Wizard): 59 mana (396 damage with fireballs)
Typical Wizard (Gnome Wizard): 58 mana (396 damage with fireballs)
Ideal Wizard (Gnome Wizard w/ Pactmaker): 104 mana (720 damage with fireballs)
Typical Sorc (Gnome Sorceror): 74 mana (432 damage with fireballs)
Mana Sorc (Elf Sorceror): 66 mana (396 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd Sorc (Gnome Sorceror w/ PM): 116 mana (684 damage with fireballs)
Typical Thief (Halfling Thief): 89 mana (504 damage with fireballs)
MP Thief (Elf Thief): 114 mana (684 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd Thief (Halfling Thief): 159 mana (936 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd MP Thief (Elf Thief): 164 mana (972 damage with fireballs)
Bloodmage...see the caveats with Priest, but also that you somehow need to heal yourself from all the damage the mana potions deal.  In-practice...
MP Bloodmage (Elf Bloodmage): 115 mana...some of which can't be used (540 damage with fireballs)
Your Funeral Bloodmage (Gnome Bloodmage): 130 mana...some of which can't be used (720 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd MP Bloodmage (Elf Bloodmage w/ PM): 165...some of which can't be used (900 damage with fireballs)
Pactmaker'd your funeral (Gnome Bloodmage w/ PM): 230...some of which can't be used (1080 with fireballs)

I'm a little surprised the top-end Wizard outpaces Sorceror, but hmm...extra glyph helps, and eventually with enough buffs layered on, the lower mana cost will matter.  (Top end Wizard ought to be better in-principle, as Sorc has stupid good combat stats).  The range for mages without the assistance of a religion is similar to the physical range.  (About 200 damage to boss on the low end, to about 600 damage to boss on the high end...although this is just with fireballs, which aren't always the most efficient spell especially for physical characters...but they're also the only spell you're guaranteed to have).  Just...religions can pump up mana a lot.

Unlike with the physical, Elf is often outright better than Gnome here, in spite of the fact that Gnome will not help you until the endgame.  Possibly these were balanced with religions in mind?  (With religions, the balance between Elf and Gnome becomes similar to the balance between Halfling and Dwarf).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 20, 2011, 04:57:33 PM
Desktop Dungeons overall

I'm curious about hybrid--if you have the healing glyph, how do you do?  Typical level 9, 75 damage boss, but HALPMEH glyph...

Completely generic (Goblin Fighter): 7x58 = 406
HP (Dwarf Fighter): 9x58 = 522
MP (Elf Fighter): 10x58 = 580
Potion (Halfling Fighter): 11x58 = 638 (You can actually convert the Halpmeh glyph at the end; final glyph conversions aren't useful on the mana side as there's nothing to spend the mana on)
Mana pot (Gnome Fighter): 10x58 = 580
Atk (Human Fighter): 7x76 = 532

The low value of attack is a little surprising to me here.  When you're using something like a healing glyph, both the health reserves and the mana reserves get a benefit (whereas all the other stats only buff one or the other reserve).  Granted, slight roundoff issues hurting attack here, and high attack allows for better regen games; more on those later....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 25, 2011, 11:45:02 PM
Desktop Dungeons

Regen Fighting strategies

Often the strategy is to hit the enemy, regen, and then hit the enemy again, and hopefully your regen outpaces the enemy regen.  Specifically, you want the following:

PCDmg/EnemyDmg > EnemyRegen/PCRegen

So...regen rates:

Default: 1 HP/Level (all enemies)
Monk: 2 HP/Level
Default with HALPMEH: 2HP/Level
Transmuter (if you blow up walls): 2HP/Level
Monk with HALPMEH: 3HP/Level
Wizard with HALPMEH: 2.5 HP/Level
Wizard with HALPMEH and BLUDTUPOWA: 3 HP/Level
Transmuter with BLUDTOPOWA: 4 HP/Level

It's a little bit more complicated when we mix in spellcasting.  Well...let's do pure spellcasting first.

FireballDmg/6 > EnemyRegen
or with BLUDTUPOWA you can get...
FireballDmg/3 > EnemyRegen

But as we know the regen and fireball damage formulae, we can write this properly as

PCLvl*4/6 > EnemyLvl
(w/ BLUDTUPOWA...)
PCLvl*4/3 > EnemyLvl

And now combining the formulae, a mixed fireball and attacking strategy for an entirely vanilla character would be...

PCPhysicalDmgPerTile + PCMagicalDmgPerTile > EnemyRegen
PCDmg*PCRegen/EnemyDmg + FireballDmg/6 > EnemyRegen
(PCDmg/EnemyDmg)*PCLvl + PCLvl*4/6 > EnemyLvl
(PCDmg/EnemyDmg + 4/6) > EnemyLvl/PCLvl

Notably, fireballs are more efficient than healing if PCDmg/EnemyDmg < 4/6.  As the technique is most commonly used against higher level enemies, this will rarely be the case, as we expect EnemyLvL/PCLvl > 1.  If EnemyLvl/PCLvl >= 4/3, then, in order for this to be profitable at all...

(PCDmg/EnemyDmg + 4/6) > 4/3
PCDmg/EnemyDmg > 2/3
PCDmg/EnemyDmg > 4/6

So...EnemyLvl/PCLvl < 4/3 is something that can come up if you're level 4+ and fighting a monster one level higher or less, or you're level 7+ and fitghting a monster two levels higher or less.  (Of course, if you're in a situation where the fireballs are more efficient than the regen, and you have BLUDTUPOWA, obviously turn it on).

Next thing to note, you may not want to enter an engagement where it's greater than...but only barely.  Situations where you're reducing HP by 1 every 6 panels can easily make you explore 90 panels to finish off an enemy; yeah, maybe you'll do it anyway, but on some level that's also a lot of resources consumed.


Ways to maximize your regen fighting:

1. Buff the two relevant physical stats: your damage, and your defence/magic defence.  Human's really the only race that does this.  HP is irrelevant, of course (although it can determine whether you can engage at all).
2. Buff your level.  Dracul's on-worship effect, Orc, Binlor's Heroics, Pactmaker and Taurog exp buffs.  This isn't as useful for fighting higher level enemies (where the point is to get a large level gap to abuse the quadratic bonus experience) but it can be useful for fighting bosses--particularly low-damage bosses.
3. Increase the regen stat more directly.  Notably Monk jumps to mind here.  On the magic side, Wizard for having 5-mana fireballs (which means 4/5 and 4/2.5 formulae).



Poison makes everything easy, of course.  Granted, the poison glyph itself takes resources, so the general strategy is to do some damage, do a bunch of regeneration until you're near-capped, and then do some more damage (that way you minimize the percentage of your resources being spent on poison).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 26, 2011, 11:48:28 PM
Desktop Dungeons

So...borrowing this bit of information: in a standard "Normal" run there will be the following distribution of enemies:

Code: [Select]
Monster Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
Number spawned x10 x5 x4 x4 x4 x3 x3 x3 x2 x1 39

(I'm not sure if the themed dungeons follow these values outside of bosses; they...might?)

Which means, before fighting the boss, if you never get any bonus experience from fighting higher-level monsters, you'll get 149 exp.  Reaching level 8 takes 5*8*(8-1)/2 = 5*28 = 140 exp.  (Never mind that killing level 9 enemies when you're level 8 would have given you some bonus exp; maybe you cheated a little).  This means that level 9 requires 31 bonus exp, and level 10 requires 76 bonus exp.  31 bonus isn't too hard--of the 38 non-boss enemies who spawn in the dungeon, you need to kill 16 of them when they're one level above you (or 6 of them when they're two levels above you).  Adjust as appropriate if there's some high level enemies you just don't plan to kill.

On exp bonuses...Pactmaker's Training if played right can mean...probably up to 30 bonus exp if you get it after killing only 8 enemies, but probably 20 is a safer bet.  Pactmaker's bonus exp is 10.  Orc will typically get about 20 bonus exp from glyph conversion.  Taurog offers 5 bonus exp.  So...most of the exp bonuses floating around award...about half a level or less (at level 8-9).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 28, 2011, 07:58:21 PM
Desktop Dungeons

APHELSIK+CYDSTEP: what's the best race: elf of human?

The primary advantage of elf being that more of your mana is being spent on CYDSTEP, the primary advantage of human being you deal more damage per CYDSTEP trigger.  Frequently it will be as follows:

For 15 mana Human: 1.6x base damage

vs

For 25 mana Elf, 2*1.3x = 2.6x base damage

(The actual mana values tend to be 13 and 19, but CYDSTEP effectively increases your mana pool by 10 as you can pre-activate it and then refill your mana).

So...human is very fractionally better and the gap grows with stuff like converting an extra glyph, using Pendant of Mana.


Next comparison: Human vs Elf transmuter with APHELSIK and all other glyphs but ENDISWALL converted, presuming that six uses of ENDISWALL provides a second attack:

Again, pre-heal, which gives an effective +6 mana capacity

Human: for 17 mana, 3.4x damage
Elf: for 23 mana, 3.9x damage

Human is actually quite a bit more efficient in this case (about 17% more damage per tile explored, and fewer walls destroyed of course).


Hmm...yeah, this last calculation specifically applies to my current Gauntlet runs, which are doing well with Elf Transmuter, but Human Transmuter may be better.  (And certainly is better for non-poison attrition).  Of course, Elf Transmuter is more flexible, and can do fireball spam if that's more appropriate.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 29, 2011, 07:57:13 PM
Desktop Dungeons

So the level curves are interesting; the enemy level curve is quadratic--in particular it looks like...

HP: L*(L+6) - 1
Atk: L*(L+5)/2

Whereas the player level curve is technically linear; sure, you collect gear and buffs from the dungeon floor, but if you get the key ones early, you're set.  Linear vs Quadratic has interesting implications--in general the quadratic curve can start out above the linear curve, dip below it for a while, and then jump back above it again.  DD has extra complications that you're often not fighting on the same level--a lot of important fights are actually against higher level enemies.

0. Fighting an equal level monster will be harder the higher your level.
1. Fighting an enemy one level higher is optimally done at level 2-3.  Level 1 and Level 6 are about equally tricky to pull off on paper (and 7-9 are the trickiest).
2. Fighting an enemy two levels higher is optimally done at level 4.  (Level 1 is the worst level to try to swing this, even if you do get all the good pickups).
3. Fighting an enemy three levels higher is optimally done at level 5.  (Level 1 is the worst place to try this, obviously).
4-9. For all higher level gaps, the most efficient level is always the highest.

Generally, for enemies two levels higher (or less) if you have all the attack power pickups, then healing > fireballs for mana efficiency.  Generally for enemies three or more levels higher, if you have all attack powerups, fireballs will outperform healing.  This assumes generic enemy and generic class, of course.

The other fun statistic:
*non-Dwarf Rogues need to be level 10 to survive a hit from a boss.
*To survive a hit when one level lower than an enemy, they need all three Health+ pickups, or two Health+ pickups and be in the range of level 2-5.
*To survive a hit when two levels lower than an enemy...they can't.

(By comparison, generics can almost always survive a hit when three levels lower, except at level 1, and can survive a hit at four levels lower provided they are level 5-6 versus an enemy of level 9-10).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 29, 2011, 11:05:56 PM
Desktop Dungeons

Store items!  So...grabbing straight from the wiki, we have this fascinating mechanic to contend with:

Quote
Item selection is not equally distributed within the Item Rank limit. Only the final shop created will be able to pick randomly from the full limit. The rest pick from a subset of the list based on what items have been unlocked and how many shops are to be created. If 9 shops were created, then the first shop would only be able to choose from the bottom 9th of the list; the second shop would then be able to choose from the bottom 2/9ths of the list, so long as it doesn't pick whatever the first shop has. This continues until all shops have selected the item to be sold.

Which brings up the interesting question of whether it might actually be a bad thing to raise the item rank if, say, the most important item to your strategy had a low or mid item rank.  The issue being that there's two variables here: you might have fewer shops that can spawn your item, but they're also selecting from a smaller number of items.  Let's math out!

These are also going to be a bit unusual, because the values are quantized--there's a big jump whenever you add a new shop.

Item Rank, best three Item Rank Limits (in order)
47: 47
46: 46, 47
45: 45, 46, 47
44: 44, 45, 46
43: 43, 44, 45
42: 42, 43, 44
41: 47, 41, 42
40: 45, 46, 47
39: 44, 45, 46
38: 43, 44, 45
37: 42, 43, 44
36: 47, 41, 42
35: 45, 46, 47
34: 44, 45, 46
33: 43, 44, 45
32: 42, 43, 44
31: 47, 40, 41
30: 45, 46, 47
29: 44, 45, 46
28: 42, 43, 44
27: 41, 42, 43
26: 47, 39, 40
25: 45, 46, 47
24: 44, 45, 46
23: 42, 43, 44
22: 40, 41, 33
21: 38, 39, 40
20: 45, 46, 36
19: 43, 35, 44
18: 41, 33, 42
17: 31, 39, 32
16: 29, 36, 37
15: 27, 34, 28
14: 21, 32, 26
13: 20, 24, 25
12: 18, 22, 19
11: 20, 17, 15
10: 13, 15, five-way-tie between 18, 12, 10, 16, and 14
9: 9, tie between 12, 11
8: Tie between 8/9/10 (all 100%)
n where n=1..7: Tie between n/n+1/.../10 (all 100%)

Some pretty interesting results here; high numbers are better in-general until about the bottom third of the table.  20 is still "45, 46, 36, 37, 47" for top five.  By the time we get to 15, lower numbers are better (but we're talking 30% chance to spawn with an Item Rank Limit of 27, versus 27% chance to spawn with an Item Rank Limit of 47; so...better, but not a huge difference).  And then things really blow up at around 10.

Speaking of stuff blowing up at 10, holy crap what is up with that five-way tie at 10???  10, 12, 14, 16, and 18 all have exactly 50% spawn rates for the item with IR-10, and I'm sure there's a clever mathematical reason why, but from a distance it looks like total coincidence.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 30, 2011, 01:21:44 AM
The mystery of 10!  Beware this is basically math stream-of-consciousness (and includes a couple of "nope; did that wrong--redo") including an outright algebra error or two.

I'm going to go ahead and abbreviate IR for Item Rank, and IRL for Item Rank Limit.  (Yes, I know, IRL usually means something else.  Whatever).  Here's what's going on in the IR 10 case for 9 shops.


10 IRL
1-8 are fixed.  The 9th shop can either be IR 9, or IR 10.
1/2 = 50%

12 IRL
The 8th shop has a 1/3 chance of being IR 10.  The 9th shop has a 1/4 chance of being IR 10 provided the 8th shop is not IR 10.  The chance of neither of them spawning an IR 10 is thus...
2/3 * 3/4 = 50%

14 IRL
floor(7/9*14) = 10
floor(8/9*14) = 12
floor(9/9*14) = 14
The 7th shop has a 1/4 chance of being IR 10.  If it's not, the 8th shop has a 1/5 chance of being IR 10.  If neither of them are, the 9th shop has a 1/6 chance of being IR 10.  The chance of none of them being IR 10 is...
3/4 * 4/5 * 5/6 = 50%

16 IRL
floor(6/9*16) = 10
floor(7/9*16) = 12
floor(8/9*16) = 14
floor(9/9*16) = 16
The 6th shop has a 1/5 chance of being IR 10.  If it's not, the 7th shop is 1/6 chance.  If not, 8th shop 1/7 chance.  If not, 9th shop 1/8 chance.  The chance of none of them being IR 10 is...
4/5 * 5/6 * 6/7 * 7/8 = 50%

18 IRL
No crazy roundoff error coincidences this time--18 is divisible by 9, so the individual rank limits of the shops are 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18.
5th shop has a 1/6 chance of being IR 10.  If not, 6th shop has a 1/7 chance.  If not, 7th shop has a 1/8 chance.  If not, 8th shop has a 1/9 chance.  If not, 9th shop has a 1/10 chance.  The chance of none of them being IR 10 is...
5/6 * 6/7 * 7/8 * 8/9 * 9/10

And things break at 20, because floor(4/9*20) = 8, not 10.


The pattern is pretty obvious, but it's still feeling somewhat like a flimsy coincidence.  If all of those floors hadn't rounded off perfectly, wouldn't we see chaos?  Does this even work for any number of shops besides 9?  Let's find out!

Starting with 3 shops, trying to spawn IR 4.

4 IRL:
3rd shop can only spawn two items, one of which is IR 4.
1/2 = 50%.

6 IRL
floor(2/3*6) = 4
floor(3/3*6) = 6
2nd shop has a 1/3 chance of spawning IR 4.  If it doesn't, then 3rd shop has a 1/4 chance of spawning IR 4.
2/3 * 3/4 = 50%.

Ok...let's move on to 4 shops, attempting to spawn an item with IR 5.

5 IRL
1/2 = 50%

7 IRL
floor(3/4*7) = 5
floor(4/4*7) = 7
2/3 * 3/4 = 50%

9 IRL
floor (2/4*9) = 4 --ok so this one fails, but that's not too surprising (we're in the bottom half of shops--all the others failed at this point too).


Alright, can we generalize this?  n shops, trying to spawn IR n+1.

n+1+2X IRL
What we want to prove is, for any 0 <= D < X:
floor(((n-D)/n)*(n+1+2X)) = n+1+2(X-D)
(Or at least determine under which conditions this holds)

Obviously this is true if D = 0.  This is also obviously true if (n+1+2X)/n = 2.  (I.e. the magical half-way point; IRL 18 for 9 shops; IRL 6 for 3 shops).  Obviously it breaks if (n+1+2X)/n > 2.  So...what are the risks if (n+1+2X)/n < 2?  Well...chief among them is that it might round up.  In other words, we're trying to prove the following:

((n-D)/n)*(n+1+2X) < n+2+2(X-D)

Doing a bit of manipulation on this...

(n-D)*(n+1+2X)/n < (n^2 + 2n + 2n(X-D))/n

(n^2 + n + 2nX - nD - D - 2DX)/n < (n^2 + 2n + 2nX - 2nD)/n

(-n + nD - D - DX) < 0

(-n + D(n-1-X)) < 0

D < n/(n-1-X)

But since (n+1+2X)/n < 2, we get -n+1+2X < 0.  X < (n-1-X)

D < n/(n-1-X) < n/X

Hmm, actually, that's not getting us anywhere.  Back up.

(n-1-X)*D < n

We know D is at most X-1.

(n-1-X)*D < (n-1-X)*(X-1)

Since (n+1+2X)/n < 2, we get -n+1+2X < 0, so 2X < n-1

(n-1-X)*(X-1) < (X)*((n-1)/2-1) < 1/4(n-1)*(n-3)

Interesting; in the case of 9...

1/4*8*6 = 12

Well...no, ok, obviously I made too many approximations, because it works for 9.  Let's back up to here:

(-n + D(n-1-X)) < 0

Let's double-check the validity of this equation with 9.

(-9 + 3*(9-1-4)) <= 0, 4 <= 0.

Whoops.  Back up.  Ok, starting equation validation:

((n-D)/n)*(n+1+2X) < n+2+2(X-D)

((9-3)/9)*(9+1+2*4) < 9+2+2(4-3)
(2/3)*(18) < 13
12 < 13

Ok, good.  (Although this does point out an incorrect statement above: should be 0<=D<=X).  Oh, damn, I've caught the error, I dropped a 2.  Should be:

(-n + nD - D - 2DX) < 0

(-n + D(n-1-2X)) < 0

D(n-1-2X) < n

But we know (n+1+2X)/n < 2, which means 1+2X < n.  And...hmm...actually, I'm pretty sure this isn't true for n much larger than 9.  At 9 the worst case scenarios are...

3*(9-1-3*2) = 3*2 < 9
2*(9-1-2*2) = 2*4 < 9

Climbing up one...

3*(10-1-3*2) = 3*3 < 10
2*(10-1-2*2) = 2*5 = 10 (FAIL)

Gotcha.  So the first point where this fails is:

10 shops, want IR 11.

At IRL 15
floor(8/10*15) = 12 (FAIL)
floor(9/10*15) = 13
floor(10/10*15) = 15
Which gives us a 1/5 chance on the first attempt.  If that fails, a 1/5 chance on the second attempt.  And if those fail, a 1/6 chance on the third attempt.  Alltogether:
4/5*4/5*5/6 = 53% chance to fail.  (FAIL)

Interestingly, still works at IRL 17:
floor(7/10) = 11
floor(8/10) = 13
floor(9/10) = 15
floor(10/10) = 17
Which gives
4/5*5/6*6/7*7/8 = 50%

The oddity comes from this: it's a quadratic formula:

D(n-1-2X) < n

which means that extreme values of X are going to be low (usually lower than n) but values half-way in between may not be.  Ye olde optimization for finding the highest point of X(n-1-2X) where n is constant.

And now you know.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on May 01, 2011, 09:38:06 AM
So what do you think are the best classes to do Gauntlet Mode in? I'm at level 10 right now and it's getting kinda painful.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 02, 2011, 03:41:51 PM
So what do you think are the best classes to do Gauntlet Mode in? I'm at level 10 right now and it's getting kinda painful.

I went about 1-14 as Human Warlord on the theory that "I want to be powerful right away".  (And guaranteed Cydstepp means you can get three physical attacks off on anything that doesn't OHKO or mana drain you).  Generally going for Pactmaker, because OMG +10 mana is a lot.  Dracul was also solid for +5 mana, +20% damage, and the HP drop doesn't matter when you're planning on being a Cydstepp whore.  (And since these only take 30 piety, you can often worship Dracul right at the end and get a nice benefit).

I went about 15-17 as a mix of Gnome Warlord and Gnome Sorceror (again, generally going for Pactmaker; although Gnome Sorceror can also go for Mystera Annur).  Sorceror is ridiculously strong early on (at level 1, any spell is better healing than HALPMEH).  In retrospect, Human was the probably the wrong Warlord race; I should have been using Gnome or Elf.  (But the early Gauntlet levels aren't too hard so it didn't matter too much).

By the high end of that range, I would often start killing the boss at like...level 5, and finish killing the boss around level 6 or on rare occasions level 7.   The issue being that non-bosses just used so many resources that killing them would use up all your regeneration space--often not worth-it, especially if you have poison.

Those are the fair, but powerful strategies.  


...and...then there's just breaking the game:

I think I did one round of Human Dracul Platemail Monk.  Monk is actually just good in general--the double regeneration is extremely good when most fights are regen-based.  But the idea of this particular combo is to get 90% physical defence (and then you just win).  Or, in the event of a mage boss, you need Mageplate instead of Platemail.  The problem with the invincibility combo is that the odds are pretty low--you're hoping for a deity that spawns 50% of the time, and an item that spawns less than 20% of the time, so maybe 10% of your runs are successful.

18-27 was Elf Binlor Transmuter.  As previously mentioned, I was often fighting the boss at like...level 5, which has obvious downsides.  Binlor has Heroics, which puts you at level 10.  Transmuter is good at gaining piety with Binlor.  Just about any class at level 10 would make fighting bosses easy again.

28-37 has been Dwarf Binlor Transmuter.  I got a few bad losses to bosses who OHKOed me, so I went Dwarf to avoid the OHKO.  This definitely drops my versatility (anti-physical bosses became a lot harder) but I'd say my win rate is probably hovering somewhere in the range of 40%-70% (well...20%-35% because Binlor isn't on the map half the time, but "no Binlor" resets usually don't take too long).

I'm aiming to get to 47; that's the point when all enemies are at 335%, which means that most level 1 enemies deal 10 damage, OHKOing the typical level 1 hero.  Not that this will stop any of the gamebreaking strategies, it would just be hilarious to show to newbies.  At some point it's probably going to make sense to stop using Dwarf, of course, when enemies start OHKOing me even with Dwarf durability.  Probably back to Elf at that point, I guess?

Not sure if I'll switch class/deity any time soon.  On paper, other classes might be better than Transmuter, especially when I can't go physical anymore.  In practice...I don't know if my copy's glitched, but Binlor doesn't spawn ENDISWALL on-worship like the wiki says it does; so...any other class will have to deal with a 50% chance of Binlor, and 50% chance of ENDISWALL, so 75% chance of failure right away.  Oh, and you probably need extra mana regen, too (BLUDTOPOWA) since otherwise you need 40x8 = 320 tiles of mana regen, which is most of the map.  So...87.5% chance of failure (well...let's say 85%, since Crystal Ball and Bludtopowa are buyable).  So...not really enthusiastic about switching classes.

I have considered Gorgon, mind you.  Fireball boss twice and then poison with a physical attack.  Starts with Endiswall.  Can gain mana by attacking low-level monsters.  Death Gaze cuts the durability of most enemies in half.  But Gorgon is like...only 8% more durable than Dwarf Transmuter so....  (Although thinking on it, Gorgon can potentially win long after every other combo just can't.  Orb of Zot plus find two more glyphs to get 50% Death Gaze--one bought, one from Earthmother, I guess?  Given the 2.5% spawn rate on Orb of Zot, though, I'm never going to aim for that intentionally).

EDIT: wow, thinking on it, Gorgon can theoretically do any of three gamebreaking strategies; 90%-100% defence with Dracul, level 10 with Binlor, Orb of Zot with Earthmother.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on May 03, 2011, 02:52:53 PM
I don't know if my copy's glitched, but Binlor doesn't spawn ENDISWALL on-worship like the wiki says it does;

I think he only spawns it if it doesn't already exist. If it does, even if it's ferreted away behind 3 level 9s or something, he won't spawn it at all, which I always thought was dumb (he should at least transport the glyph over, same problem I have with Annur)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 03, 2011, 08:30:03 PM
I don't know if my copy's glitched, but Binlor doesn't spawn ENDISWALL on-worship like the wiki says it does;

I think he only spawns it if it doesn't already exist. If it does, even if it's ferreted away behind 3 level 9s or something, he won't spawn it at all, which I always thought was dumb (he should at least transport the glyph over, same problem I have with Annur)

No, no.

That's the way Earthmother works for me, absolutely; I'm familiar with the mechanic.  But I've never seen Binlor spawn the glyph (in 20+ attempts with other classes), and there were definitely occasions where I cleared out the entire map and still couldn't find that glyph.

I'm wondering if maybe Binlor used to spawn a glyph in an earlier or later version (hence why the wiki is wrong) but I can say with confidence that Binlor never seems to spawn a glyph in the version I have.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 04, 2011, 10:59:32 PM
Desktop Dungeons:

The map is 20x20.  The specific dimensions aren't that important, but what is important is that there are 400 tiles on the map.  This has several implications:

The most piety you can get from Pactmaker's on-worship effect is 40.  You won't hit 40.  Chances are you will be aiming for one of 5, 20, or 25 piety, though--we can now say that these numbers imply 1/8, 1/2, or 5/8 of the map uncovered.

More important for me right now, though, is attrition fights against bosses.  For instance, if you're level 10, have BLUDTOPOWA active, and are burning the boss, taking a step, burning the boss, repeat, then...for every 3 tiles you uncover, you gain 6 mana, which means 40 damage to the boss, while simultaneously the boss gains 30 HP.  So...for every 3 tiles uncovered you deal a net 10 damage.  If you can pull this off for, say, 210 tiles (just over half the map) then that's 700 damage from regen tactics alone.

I can't possibly note all damage-per-tile-explored values, but here are a few:

Lvl 10, BLUDTOPOWA, fireballing: 3.33 d/ti
Lvl 10, APHEELSIK, fireballing w/ 13 MP: 3.64 d/ti
Lvl 10, APHEELSIK, fireballing w/ 23 MP: 5.22 d/ti
Lvl 10, BLUDTOPOWA, CYDSTEPP, w/ 13 MP and 65 atk: 3 d/ti
Lvl 10, APHEELSIK, CYDSTEPP, w/ 13 MP and 65 atk: 4.33 d/ti
Lvl 10, APHEELSIK, CYDSTEPP, w/ 15-23 MP and 65 atk: 5.20 d/ti

CYDSTEP, of course, allows you to act like you have more mana than you really have (by doing one activation pre-combat, then regening mana)--hence why the 13 mana APHEELSIK case goes a lot better under CYDSTEPP.

I don't have healing listed.  There's a lot of variables involved in healing, but it works a lot like CYDSTEPP in that you can have one full-heal already full before engaging, and then sneak in a second before you poison.  Mostly, healing is cool if it costs less than CYDSTEPP's 10 mana to get an extra attack in (as healing gets much, much higher d/ti values if it costs significantly under 10 mana--or does cost close to that amount but you're taking advantage of both health regen and mana regen--or costs quite a bit, but you can almost survive two hits from the boss so you're effectively storing even more mana with APHEELSIK).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 28, 2011, 01:57:32 AM
Magic the Gathering

So...they went and broke it again.

And...not necessarily in the way the DL expected from stuff I've seen posted here--in particular, not because they printed big (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=207875) scary (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214386) creatures (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205077) (nobody's playing the stuff I just linked anymore anyway).  But rather because of some interesting miscalculations.  Let's start with the most harmless-looking.

------------------------

Squadron Hawk (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=208279)

Remember Skyshroud Sentinel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=21362)?  That card was bad, eh?  You got to pay 3 mana for a 1/1 (by all accounts awful on its own) just for the right to get three more cards...but you know they're going to be terrible cards so who cares?  The best use for them was when you had other cards in your deck with lines of text like "discard a card: something awesome happens".

Now, when Squadron Hawk was first revealed, people were like "Ok, 1 less mana, and you get flying; maybe that's enough of an upgrade to be useful.  Well...there'll be some deck that uses it.  There's discard costs, there's decks that want to play two creatures in a turn, and there's some effects that put cards from your hand back into your library, so it'll probably squeeze into a niche deck."  And yeah, Squadron Hawk totally does get used in those decks, but the thing is, it's much, much better than that--to the point that it's used in just about every deck; to the point that slow white-blue control decks stopped playing big angel creatures and started playing 2 mana 1/1 birds.  Let's analyze.

Sliver Queen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=5233) and her modern cousin Ant Queen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191063) are good, not because they've got big bodies (which is actually hardly used) but because "2: make a 1/1" is just a powerful effect.  For that matter, Sacred Mesa (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=106625) was a control staple; recently, and generally involves spending a fair bit more than 2 mana for each 1/1 flyer you get from the deal.  On the one hand, these work at instant speed, but on the other hand, they're easier to stop--you blow up the source, the flood of 1/1s ends; there's nothing to blow up in the case of Squadron Hawks.  Granted, infinite uses vs 4 uses, but 4 is actually quite a lot; given the pace of games these days, the game will often be over before you're left wanting a fifth.

The other way of looking at it: Skyshroud Sentinel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=21362) was kinda 3 mana to draw 3 cards...which would be a good deal except it's 3 absolutely awful cards.  Squadron Hawk is like 2 mana to draw 3 cards...except 1/1 flying for 2 isn't irrelevant, so kinda like 1 mana to draw 3 cards...which would be broken beyond belief...except it's 3 sub-par cards (which is still quite good).

Of course, it isn't helping that 1/1 flier is better than it normally would be right now--we're in another artifact block, which means lots of powerful equipment trotting around, and 1/1 fliers love equipment.  Speaking of equipment, that leads us nicely into...

Stoneforge Mystic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=198383)

Let's pause for a minute and look at Elvish Visionary (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=194424) (or for you old-schoolers in the audience, Wall of Blossoms).  Elvish Visionary is played in...just about every format; mostly in Elf decks, sure, but it's pretty solid.  We're back to the "2 mana for a 1/1 that doesn't cost you a card = good".

Stoneforge Mystic is 1/2 instead of 1/1.  It has an extra ability (which I'll get into later).  And instead of drawing a card it searches for a very specific kind of card (Equipment).  Now, initially this seemed balanced enough--since (at the time Stoneforge Mystic had been printed) they had been pretty careful with the equipment they were printing, search your library for an Equipment was at the time probably worse than draw a card, just due to selection.  And indeed, there's evidence to back that up--when Stoneforge Mystic first came out, a columnist I have a great deal of respect for (Craig Wescoe) got top 4 with a white weenie deck that maxed out on Stoneforge Mystic, running such uninspiring equipment as Trusty Machete (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193396).

So...that was then; what's changed since then?  For starters, decks with lots of creatures were common then; one of the downsides of equipment in general is that if you have nothing to attach it to, it's a dead card--but Stoneforge Mystic herself can always be equipped; problem solved!  You can now gain all the benefits of powerful equipment in decks filled with counterspells and card drawing.  So...that's one extra aspect that's handy.  Next up: Stoneforge Mystic has a second ability: "2 mana, tap, put equipment from your hand into play".  Now, when Stoneforge Mystic first came out, the equipment worth considering at all generally had casting cost 1 or 2--no real saving, although maybe you'd use it to avoid a counterspell or keep mana open until your opponent's end of turn.  As the artifact block came out, this became "good equipment costs 3 mana" (1 mana savings) and then "good equipment costs 5 mana" (3 mana savings).  The instant speed of this effect gained in value, with the introduction of equipment that comes with a creature token attached (so you can drop an instant-speed blocker).  Finally, the third way Stoneforge Mystic became better is just that the artifact block introduced more (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214070) powerful (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233055) equipment (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214368)--better stuff to search for.

So...overall we went from the starting point of "this is a pretty good creature" to the ending point of "this is a scary win-con all by itself--arguably scarier than the ridiculous big creatures they print at twice the mana cost".

Jace the Mind Sculptor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=195297)

You know, unlike the other two, this one isn't remotely subtle.  The other two snuck up on me a little--they initially seemed "that looks decent, I think people might even play that" not "that's going to warp the entire format", and I had to go back and think "oh, yeah, actually that does make sense when you do the math and add a few new combos."  Jace 2.0 on the other hand, was hit-you-over-the-head obvious.

All you need to know is that Jace Beleren (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205960) is a good card that was already being played in most tournament blue decks.  -1 loyalty for draw a card is a pretty good deal.  Jace the Mind Sculptor admittedly costs an extra mana, but has -0 loyalty for an effect considerably better than draw a card.  Even if he had no other abilities, blue decks would likely still run him just for that effect.

But as an added bonus, if you find yourself in the lead, where you don't desperately need to draw cards, he can be your win condition.  And if you find yourself in danger, he can bounce the dangerous creature.  He just happens to be a swiss army knife in addition to being ridiculously good card draw.

-------------------------------------------

These three cards form the backbone of the most dominating deck in Standard since Affinity.  (Backed up by hey: counterspells and card draw don't actually suck right now).  Oh but hey wait, here comes a new challenger.

-------------------------------------------

Deceiver Exarch (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214365)

Deceiver on it's own is an ok card; possibly tournament-worthy but hardly gamebreaking--just neat; certainly Pestermite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=139428) was before it.  Consider: you can untap one of your lands, or tap one of your opponent's lands, so right away it's like 2 mana for a 1/4 (assuming you can't think of anything cooler to tap/untap than a land).  Not bad, kinda fun to play; pretty versatile in what it can do, but hardly terrifying.  Enter Splinter Twin:

Splinter Twin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193474)

Enchant Deceiver.  Tap it to make a copy; when that copy enters the battlefield, untap the original.  Repeat a billion times.  Now attack with your billion hasty creatures.  Yep, turn 4 infinite damage with a 2-card combo.  They had to know this was coming--older formats were dealing with Splinter Twin + Pestermite.  For combo purposes, Deceiver Exarch is actually better than Pestermite anyway: 4 toughness, so it doesn't die to Lightning Bolt.  I'm well...a little bit surprised; historically they've said that they try not to print 2-card combos in Standard, only 3 card combos.

-----------------------------------

Not that I'm expecting them to run around and ban a bunch of stuff now; it's 4 months till all the crazy rotates out of Standard.

And until then there should be a metagame; blue-red combo beats stupid white-blue deck (probably).  White-blue-black control with lots of combo-killing cards beats blue-red combo.  Stupid white-blue deck beats white-blue-black combo killer.  And combo is probably not going to be only one deck anyway (given that it only needs two cards; the rest of your deck can be pretty much whatever you want).  And hey, every once in a while, if these decks focus too many of their cards on killing each other, a "how bout I just kill you" deck might surface briefly.  So...strangely this might be a metagame with some diversity.

It's more that...the power of the best decks is kinda wtf-worthy.  And there's the unhealthy factor that a lot of emphasis is being put on a small number of cards, which adds more luck into the equation (did you draw key card X?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on May 28, 2011, 02:40:48 AM
I don't have much to add other than to really question that people seriously expected Magic to be broken by giant creatures in the follow up to Mirrordin?  Do people forget what the fuck was truely broken in Mirrordin in the first place?  I know giant indestuctible 9/9s look really good or Artifact angels that make it so you can't lose also look batshit insane, but seriously, they didn't think it was going to be equipment?

RE: Jace, I was so happy when I ran into this (http://www.magiclampoon.com/blog/2011/04/27/portal-2-complete-jace-core-dialogue-transcript/) one day entirely by accident when I was giggling about Gerard with Laggy one day when Witcher 2 came up.

Same new broken shit is broken.  Hueg creatures with tons of abilities being broken is so 2001.  That said, this shit is fucking awesome and flavoursome to the max (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214386)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on May 28, 2011, 02:43:16 AM
Terrible wording on that card, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on May 28, 2011, 03:08:26 AM
Magic wording does have to be fairly tortured at time.  You can't put it in more plain language of whenever a player does damage to Phyrexian blah blah they have to sac permanents equal to the damage dealt because that shit would be rule lawyered out the arse (players don't do damage, How much damage does something take, who owns the card blah blah blah).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 28, 2011, 03:25:51 AM
That said, this shit is fucking awesome and flavoursome to the max (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214386)

Oh well yeah, New Phyrexia is probably my pick for the set with the best flavour ever.  Like...I actually read and enjoyed reading some of their backstory.

Elesh says hi (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214352)
How can something so green seem so evil? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218006)
Did somebody say sympathetic borg? (http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/stf/141)
Oh hi jin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214349)
Powerful or not, this design fits their backstory so well (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214346)

EDIT:
I don't have much to add other than to really question that people seriously expected Magic to be broken by giant creatures in the follow up to Mirrordin?  Do people forget what the fuck was truely broken in Mirrordin in the first place?  I know giant indestuctible 9/9s look really good or Artifact angels that make it so you can't lose also look batshit insane, but seriously, they didn't think it was going to be equipment?

To be fair...the broken stuff from Mirrodin, outside of artifact lands and a couple of other Affinity cards, is like...Tooth and Nail, and Rude Awakening, which cost 9 and 8 respectively, which are both...well, creature based anyhow.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on May 28, 2011, 11:09:36 PM
Darksteel was just generally broken, even ignoring the obvious (Ravager, Arcbound Worker).  Everybody agrees Umezawa's Jitte was broken, for example, and now consider that post-RAffinity bannings, many decks still played Sword of Fire & Ice over it.  Even a bunch of seemingly harmless stuff from DS saw play, like Spire Golem (the Affinity for Islands artifact).

I wouldn't really call Rude Awakening broken.  It's a neat win condition for land-heavy decks and can double as a combo-enabler, but at 5-9 mana, it's pretty balanced.  Don't mind banning it in Prismatic, though, as it is kinda auto-winny.

I haven't really been playing MTGO in awhile.  Mythic rare really are pretty meh as far as I'm concerned, plus generally got distracted by other stuff.  That said, Caw-Blade does look pretty brokenly powerful.  Infinite 1/1s to carry Swords backed by control?  Ow.  That said, the establishment of the Modern format sounds interesting - I hated the new Extended rotation policy of constantly updating the start date, forcing decks to be constantly remade, and then they massively shortened Extended's reach anyway.  Not that I'd really been playing since then, but still.  At least with Modern, I won't have to be constantly throwing out cards.  Though I buy the whole "modern card frames are an easy identifier" argument, it's still too bad that Invasion / Odyssey / Onslaught aren't included - they're fun sets.

So, remind me, does anybody else here actually have an MTGO account?  I'm Snowflame there and can throw together some of my old decks from the MTGO 2.0 days if needed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on May 29, 2011, 01:24:59 AM
Man anyone that didn't agree that Umezawa's Jitte was broken back when it was in play must be soft in the head.  Seriously that card completely ruined my trying to get back into the game when it was out.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 29, 2011, 02:21:00 PM
Snow: if you don't like Rude Awakening as an example...then Myr Incubator.  Or post bannings Memnarch was pretty heavily used.

And I agree these aren't broken.  But the point is Mirrodin wasn't immune to tournament-dominating high CMC cards; in fact it had a bunch.

And yes, Sword of Fire and Ice is really, really good.  Probably fourth best equipment behind all the ones that have been banned in some format (those being Scullclamp, Sword of the Meek, Jitte).   At least you can always just play an artifact wall and block it, though.

As for the affinity for islands guy...that whole cycle was good if you were playing mono-colour with lots of basic lands.  The white one also got used a bunch.  It mostly came down to "do you have a monocolour deck that wants a midrange creature".

Also, out of principle, Darksteel rants should mention Aether Vial >_>
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 29, 2011, 08:53:59 PM
6 Pooling

If I'm going to 2v2 with Laggy, clearly I need to get good at it.  Thing is, it's not as straightforward as I thought.  In SC1 there's one 4 pool build.  In SC2 there are a number of 6 pool choices.  Let's go over them...

The basic....
Pool
Drone
Drone
3 Lings
Overlord
More lings; get a Queen eventually.

The build Laggy had me using last night.  Here's what I don't like about this build: so...you build six lings, and then you wait for the money to build an overlord, and then you wait for the overlord to finish, which altogether is almost 50 seconds before you build any lings beyond the initial six.  Given that you can expect about 15 workers by the time you arrive, not only can the opponent fend off the initial six lings with workers, but they'll probably have more workers than you after they do.

Extractor trick variant:
Same as above but extractor trick for an extra ling built before Overlord.

Honestly this is probably what I should have been doing last night.  Two more Zerglings quickly reinforcing would make a big difference.  It would change the Ling vs worker fight significantly.

Double extractor trick variant:
Same as above, but extractor trick a second time.

This might actually be worth it, too.  My gut instinct tells me it's more important to get 8 lings to their base soon than to get the 10th ling a fraction of a second earlier, so extractor, ling, don't cancel the extractor, save up to 75, extractor, ling, cancel, cancel.  According to my spreadsheet, this might still get the 10th ling into their base a full 20 seconds earlier than the overlord route.

Prepool Overlord 6-pool version
Pool
Drone
Overlord
4 Lings
keep pumping lings forever

I actually got this one off of Liquipedia.  Here's why this one is attractive: all of your post-pool larva become lings; none get wasted on becoming Overlords, so it will produce 2 more total lings than any of the above builds. The downside is the initial attack has only 4 lings but the theory is that against Protoss this is ok, since only 4 lings will be able to attack the wall-off building of choice, so you may as well have more lings when the wall falls.


Maximum offence variant:
Pool
6 lings
Pump lings
Double extractor trick for more lings

5 drones is enough to support pumping lings forever (but nothing else; Overlords are too expensive).  This gives you 6 initial lings, and constant ling streams until 14 lings.  Heaven help you if you ever want more than 14 lings, though.



...
Ok, that's enough for one post.  Next post I might go into some other options, like 10 pool.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on May 29, 2011, 09:18:06 PM
Yeah, Aether Vial was pretty broken too.  Its applications for aggressive decks like Goblins were kind of obvious, but funny I left it out, as control decks would still use it...  with Sword of Fire & Ice.  Whee, the wimpy Grim Lavamancers / Dark Confidants / Voidmage Prodigies / etc. just became awesome.

Interesting comments on 6 pool variants.  Never tried the Overlord first version, but sounds interesting.  I'll just chime and say that I'm definitely a fan of the 10 pool for team Zerg, especially for larger maps.  The nice thing about the 10 pool is that you (can) get speed - very nice for reinforcements and nice in the case of separate bases where one enemy may have walled up, but the others didn't, so it may be a longer jog than anticipated.  (To be clear, I'm talking about Drone to 10 - Extractor - Drone - Pool - OL - Drone).  Since you have an economy, the game isn't over if they walled up - speedlings are just fine for controlling the map then.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 29, 2011, 10:55:44 PM
Yep, that build is definitely on my to-write-about (although yeah: it's another build I didn't think of last night).

In particular, I'm not happy with 6-pool against Zerg.  The initial six zerglings can be fought off with 15 drones from an econ build, without losing the econ advantage, and from then on I'm out-zerglinged.  The defending zerg even gets options like queen defence and spine crawlers.

That said, an adaptation I'd like to try: against zerg (and at this point most teams Laggy and I face will have Zerg...)

Replace the Overlord with a spine crawler in the opponent's base (they both cost 100 minerals).  Send out a Drone timed to arrive with the six Zerglings or fractionally before.  Build a Spine preferably next to their hatchery and defend it with the six zerglings.

Hmm...this is definitely compatible with the extractor trick.  Double extractor trick before spine...I'm thinking might delay the spine 5 seconds or so (travel time between bases is...30 seconds?  Less?)  Granted, extractor tricking after spine is an option too.

This should, at least, kill 13 pool (which 6 pool fails at normally).  A defensive 10 pool pulling drones would hold it off, of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Carthrat on May 30, 2011, 05:56:53 AM
I remain pretty set on 13pool as Z, even against other Z.

2v2 scouting should be timed to reveal a 6pool around when it's leaving your base, or at least on the way. I'm quite willing to pull most of my drones to defend against this; if your lings fight, they'll probably die and I'll still be ahead of you in drone count. If they don't fight and dance to deny me mining, my pool will eventually finish and I can dump my own crawler or put down my own lings, get a queen, whatever. Keep in mind if you pull a drone and place a crawler, you must fight to defend it against my drones; even if you cancel, you're down a precious drone and 25 minerals- actually important to a low-econ zerg.

This works best, of course, if your ally is supporting you. But presuming a non-Z player, hopefully my own ally will negate his efforts (my ally can afford to pull workers, too- if we defend the 6pool the Z is not going to be doing much for a while and we should be able to expand or tech or mass relatively safely, then move out to win in one sweep). If you're double Z, you can of course go totally all-in on me and kill me, I don't think any Z build can actually stop a double-6 pool (unlike P and T, who can both wall and survive, and their marines/zealots will be cost-efficient against your non-speedlings.)

But what I can do is give all my money to my friend and keep your lings busy as long as possible, since both of you will end up in a weakened situation against my ally in that case. 2v1 against double 6pool zerg is actually a hard guess; T can gun for hellions and render your army useless, or get banshees (you're gonna be a ways away from anti-air tech unless you go all-out on crawlers); P can of course get voidrays which are already obnoxious to deal with for all Z's everywhere.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Carthrat on May 30, 2011, 06:04:40 AM
In fact, I want to remind myself, right now, to scout at like 9-10 against Z or Random opponents from now on like no matter what.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on June 01, 2011, 11:00:54 PM
Non-6-pool topic that's Starcraft-related:

This is purely for variety's sake, and I don't know (though I could guess) how balance would go, but I want to see more variety in bonus damage types. 

Terran
Armoured: Marauder, Siege Tank, Viking (air only)
Light: Reaper, Ghost, Hellion, Thor (air only)
Structure: Reaper (well, technically not, I guess, since it's a different attack, but close enough)

Zerg
Light: Baneling
Armoured: Ultralisk, Infestor (Fungal Growth)
Massive: Corruptor
Structure: Baneling (see Reaper comments)

Protoss
Light: Phoenix
Armoured: Stalker, Immortal, Void Ray
Massive: Void Ray (stacking with armoured)
Biological: Archon

I'd love to see a mechanical bonus, or psionic bonus.  Some of those bonus don't make a major difference (+4 Stalker damage to armoured), and some are big (Immortal vs. armoured). 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 02, 2011, 02:20:40 PM
See, I'd actually like to see less variety in bonus damage types.

Archon, for instance; what's with the bonus to Biological?  Do Archons really need to be worse against Colossus-Stalker balls?  How about Siege Tank-Thor balls?  How about Carrier balls?


I'm all-for Light, Armoured, and Structure damage bonuses.  But I'm definitely against stuff that ends up very race-specific, like "Biological".  Even "Massive" vs air is a bit questionable to me, since it's pretty-much a "let's artificially change the Protoss matchup" (While simultaneously making Carriers and Battlecruisers cry even more.  It's noteworthy that Carriers are only used against Terran, the race that doesn't have a "bonus to massive" unit).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on June 02, 2011, 05:52:14 PM
Yeah, I'm mostly speaking for the sake of variety/coolness.  I'd just like to see variety in damage bonus - we have all those extra unit types (psionic, mechanical), it would be cool to see them used more.  It doesn't have to be a game-changing bonus, to me - moreso flavour than anything. 

I've seen some discussion about Blizzard changing Corruptor bonus to armoured instead of massive, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 02, 2011, 10:23:10 PM
If it is there it will be game changing unless there is only one end game unit for each race or you half gimp one build order for its defense vs a type of play until the final unit.  If you have multiple end game units that you need to keep viable then you are already balancing on a razors edge.  Adding in something like that, even if it is flavoursome is going to be game changing at a high level of play especially.

Edit - Also if the bonsues aren't big enough to actually have any real effect then you create noob traps as well.  What do you mean firebats are terrible to use against zerglings they have a bonus to biological?!?!?!? kind of situations might turn up (NOTE: Example only, not factual statement).  Stuff like that is very much counter to the core philosophy Bilzzard have been doing in games for the last couple of releases.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 03, 2011, 04:28:42 AM
If it is there it will be game changing unless there is only one end game unit for each race or you half gimp one build order for its defense vs a type of play until the final unit.  If you have multiple end game units that you need to keep viable then you are already balancing on a razors edge.  Adding in something like that, even if it is flavoursome is going to be game changing at a high level of play especially.

Eh?

Let's say Corruptors went from bonus: Massive to bonus: Armored.  What does this even change?  The grand total of all flying armored units that are not also massive is...

Corruptors
Vikings
Void Rays
Flying Terran Buildings

I'm not remotely concerned about Corruptors or Flying Terran Buildings.  Void Rays...honestly I'd be fine with that.  Void Rays have this stupid thing of "they're cost effective against every single Zerg unit...except like, Hydras, but you're Protoss; you have lots of ways to make Hydras a joke."  And Vikings...are they even used in TvZ?  Or Corruptors, for that matter?  So...high level play wouldn't notice too much; people would probably not use Void Rays anymore in lategame PvZ, but that's fine.

What this might adversely affect is island maps.  Let's suppose Vikings can't handle Corruptors now (for the sake of argument).  Does Zerg just auto-win on island maps?  I mean, I doubt the races are balanced on island maps as-is, but at least in air fights, all the races have a unit that at least seems like it's almost the same cost efficiency as its competitor's air-to-air units.

Quote
Edit - Also if the bonsues aren't big enough to actually have any real effect then you create noob traps as well.  What do you mean firebats are terrible to use against zerglings they have a bonus to biological?!?!?!? kind of situations might turn up (NOTE: Example only, not factual statement).  Stuff like that is very much counter to the core philosophy Bilzzard have been doing in games for the last couple of releases.

SC2 has plenty of that.  Like...Zerglings used to kill Hellions is a common one.  Roaches used against Stalkers is another.  Or even better, Roaches used as a response to Void Rays; not that they're good at killing the Void Ray, but they can go crush the opponent and ignore the void ray.  In fact...

(http://i51.tinypic.com/2dglufr.jpg)

What's another one?  Hm...Protoss wanting Stalkers early to deal with Marauders (even though it very clearly lists in game: Marauders counter Stalkers...when you only have 3-5 units total though, the range matters).  Blink Stalkers being good against Zerglings.  Infestors are good against Marines even though they deal bonus damage to armored!  Oh, speaking of, Siege Tanks are also good against Marines.  As are Ultralisks.  Oh, while we're at it, Marines are cost effective against Reapers.


So...with all due respect, Gref, I think you're wrong, or at least you're assuming that game design from WoW is being applied to game design from SC2, where that doesn't actually seem to be the case.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 03, 2011, 08:01:00 AM
Hey mc, there's a new version of Desktop Dungeons with a new mode where all enemies apparently have boss multipliers even when they're not level 10 (which means goats are insane)

I would be interested to see how you break it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 03, 2011, 12:42:14 PM
Without even having played it...(this is the theorycraft topic...)

Boss multipliers are funny; I'm not sure whether most bosses are considered to have 100% HP or 200% HP.  I'm guessing 200%, though, otherwise a lot of these bosses aren't going to look that different from their non-boss counterparts (snakes, for instance, and goats would be frequently dispatched with first strike).

So...the primary difference is that HPs are doubled.  This is abuseable with regen tactics as damage will still be low.  (So...Monk, Transmuter in the old verion).  The problem is just overall resources: having enough unexplored tiles.  The other thing to note, however, is that...this isn't that hard: Gauntlet level 20 doubles everyone's HP...and doubles their attack, and gives the same doubling to the boss.  This sounds more like Gauntlet Level 10 difficulty...i.e. probably beatable with lots of suboptimal class/deity combos, and shouldn't require breaking the game via something like Binlor.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 03, 2011, 12:49:09 PM
You are right, the mode is easier than the higher levels of Gauntlet.

Although the enemies there also get "boss" special abilities. For example, Medusas get 100% death strike instead of their usual and bandits are super annoying because these version have First Strike meaning unless you get a level up heal off killing them, they will always annoy you with Poison/Mana Burn. Makes for a very weird set of strategies despite being easier overall.

Also, the Orc class has been changed. Their old EXP bonus conversion was given to Goblins and Orcs now have a "Base Damage increase" glyph conversion. I'm not sure how that works out mathematically (1 per level/conversion, scaling like dwarves?) but it seems to me that Humans are still better overall for increased damage? Might be worth looking into though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 03, 2011, 12:58:24 PM
It is fairly counter to my understanding of the balance of WC3 (which to be fair is very loose) and Diablo 2's balancing in later patches as well.  Could be looking at the wrong groups though.

The general sentiment is much less there being stray units that are odd counters to something that does bonus damage to them and much more just things that are supposed to be hard counters to things straight up not working (Which you have stated happens).

Yay respect for SC2 design down.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 03, 2011, 04:57:09 PM
You are right, the mode is easier than the higher levels of Gauntlet.

Although the enemies there also get "boss" special abilities. For example, Medusas get 100% death strike instead of their usual and bandits are super annoying because these version have First Strike meaning unless you get a level up heal off killing them, they will always annoy you with Poison/Mana Burn. Makes for a very weird set of strategies despite being easier overall.

Yeah, Bandits jumped to mind as probably the most obnoxious.  Normally the boss' first strike doesn't matter, but here it really does; means you can't safely attack them even when you're higher level.  Medusa...not so scary, though; Medusa's HP multiplier is extremely low for a boss; I'll still gleefully level slingshot off of Medusas using, say, CYDSTEPP.

Quote
Also, the Orc class has been changed. Their old EXP bonus conversion was given to Goblins and Orcs now have a "Base Damage increase" glyph conversion. I'm not sure how that works out mathematically (1 per level/conversion, scaling like dwarves?) but it seems to me that Humans are still better overall for increased damage? Might be worth looking into though.

If it's 1 per level/conversion then that's...really strong.  Way better than Human.  (Without any outside percentage bonuses, that's equivalent to +20% per conversion.  With outside percentage bonuses that's arguably more-like +30% per conversion).  So...I'm guessing that's not the formula.  And...just in general, I'm not expecting a scaling formula, because it's too similar to what human does.  Not sure what would be a good non-scaling formula; maybe +3 per conversion?  That's enough to make you stronger than human early, but weaker than human by level 10.  This is pure speculation, though--I haven't seen the formula.

I'm a bit sad about this change, though; Orc was an interesting race--let you level up at a timely moment to get a full heal.

It is fairly counter to my understanding of the balance of WC3 (which to be fair is very loose) and Diablo 2's balancing in later patches as well.  Could be looking at the wrong groups though.

The general sentiment is much less there being stray units that are odd counters to something that does bonus damage to them and much more just things that are supposed to be hard counters to things straight up not working (Which you have stated happens).

Yay respect for SC2 design down.

I actually much prefer games where they allow for a dynamic to develop, instead of artificially dictating "unit X counters unit Y".  I mean, look at Chess; you don't look at it and say "well, Knight counters Queen, so...". 

Or look at say, Magic the Gathering.  Now, lots of people like to think that the game is about counters, but it's kinda not; I remember when Ghostway (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=96842) was spoiled, a bunch of people were really exited about this excellent counter to Wrath of God.  Until someone from Wizards wrote in an article "Really people?  If all you want to do is counter Wrath, you could always use countermagic; it costs less mana, and can stop other cards too...".

It's games where developers take their hands off the steering wheel that you get an interesting metagame dynamic; where someone might discover some subtle interaction and the entire matchup changes.  Recent example:

http://www.gomtv.net/2011gslsponsors3/vod/65228
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 03, 2011, 05:10:01 PM
If it's 1 per level/conversion then that's...really strong.  Way better than Human.  (Without any outside percentage bonuses, that's equivalent to +20% per conversion.  With outside percentage bonuses that's arguably more-like +30% per conversion).  So...I'm guessing that's not the formula.  And...just in general, I'm not expecting a scaling formula, because it's too similar to what human does.  Not sure what would be a good non-scaling formula; maybe +3 per conversion?  That's enough to make you stronger than human early, but weaker than human by level 10.  This is pure speculation, though--I haven't seen the formula.

I'm a bit sad about this change, though; Orc was an interesting race--let you level up at a timely moment to get a full heal.

I'm dumb and didn't take picking up attack powerups in account. I think it's just a set 2 Base Damage per glyph, I believe. I don't know how that adds up but for me it works better for like... Thieves and Rogues, and not great on Monks. I don't know how it adds up on a "neutral" user.

Oh, by the way, I think I didn't convey it properly, but the old EXP glyph conversion is still there. Now:

Goblin: Convert Glyph to EXP
Orc: Convert Glyph to Base Damage.

The effect that was removed was the old Goblin's glyph -> gold conversion, which isn't useful for actually winning anyway and only useful for gold farming before starting your real run. But this does have the side effect that farming gold is now more obnoxious without the old goblin. I just hex-edit my save file to get maximum legit gold before each of my runs.

I guess this distribution makes more sense. Orcs were never a quick-learning race in fantasy tropes while Goblins are a "cunning" sort.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 03, 2011, 10:09:27 PM
I'm dumb and didn't take picking up attack powerups in account. I think it's just a set 2 Base Damage per glyph, I believe. I don't know how that adds up but for me it works better for like... Thieves and Rogues, and not great on Monks. I don't know how it adds up on a "neutral" user.

Level 10 Human Vanilla vs Level 10 Orc Vanilla, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 50*1.7 = 85
Orc: 58*1.3 = 75

Level 5 Human Vanilla vs Level 5 Orc Vanilla, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 25*1.7 = 42
Orc: 33*1.3 = 42

Level 1 Human Vanilla vs Level 1 Orc Vanilla, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 5*1.7 = 8
Orc: 13*1.3 = 16

And in general, every time you level up, Humans gain 8.5 damage, and Orcs gain 6.5 damage

So...you need to gain an extra level overall with Orc's early damage to make them worthwhile (and even that won't necessarily make them deal more damage with physical attacks, but there are enough residual benefits from an extra level like more HP, better fireballs, more HP regen, etc, that it's probably worth-it).


Well, that's Vanilla; what about Rogue?

Level 10 Human Rogue vs Level 10 Orc Rogue, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 50*2.2 = 110
Orc: 58*1.8 = 104

Level 7 Human Rogue vs Level 7 Orc Rogue, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 35*2.2 = 77
Orc: 43*1.8 = 77

Level 1 Human Rogue vs Level 1 Orc Rogue, four glyphs converted, all attack buffs picked up:

Human: 5*2.2 = 11
Orc: 13*1.8 = 23

Even with Rogue, unless you get an extra level out of your bonus low-level damage, Human will be better.  (Now, if you do get an extra level, then unquestionably Orc is better).



Hm...yeah, I'm really not impressed with a fixed +2 in general.  It's probably worth-it if the extra exp slingshotting gains you a whole extra level...probably.  But a whole extra level is by no means guaranteed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 04, 2011, 01:18:47 AM
Good things can certainly come from hands off design!  Let the gamers shape and form the meta game.  The biggest problem with competetive SC1 was always that insanely high barrier of entry though.  SC2 did something about it by making it a far easier game, but it is still there.  I prefer my info to be accessible and/or fairly self evident.  Without constantly updating the in game info (Something WoW does actually -try- to do from Blizzard) then you are just going to run into the same problems again.

It makes for truely impressive high level play to have things like that!  But it doesn't really help you develop an e-sports community unless you have a massive influx of people based on brand power and whatnot.  This isn't like Baseball or Football where people have grown up playing Starcraft or watching their parent's favourite Starcraft team on TV (although the former may be true in 2-5 or so years!  It is going to be pretty amazing come time for the final Starcraft 2 episode when we might have a crop of 16 year olds that have been surrounded by the game for their entire lives/nearly their entire lives).

That is mostly why I really like shooters as the e-sports game, they are fairly easy to understand the direct outcomes to even the more amazing pieces of technical prowess.  Also really lets me know what bothers me so much about this idea of turning MMO PVP into a pro gaming scene.  They are just nearly impenetrable without playing the game given class balance and whatnot.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 04, 2011, 06:20:39 AM
Ok, unlocked boss hive in Desktop Dungeons.

Beat it first try with...

Elf Sorceror
Gnome Warlord
Human Monk (discounting the attempt where I activated first strike right after worshiping Jehoira, and had an angry god; that's more facepalm than evidence of a hard dungeon)
Elf Transmuter

Did not beat first try with...

Elf Thief (not sure that's the class' fault; might be, but I was also walled a lot by high level monsters and needed to use potions to get past the earlygame).

Beat in three tries with...

Changeling (also my first time using the class, so I used it wrong at first; like...converting glyphs next to anything but the boss; not doing the boss petrify right).

There's definitely a bug, though, where snakes don't get boss stats, so that may have made things quite a bit easier than they should have been.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 04, 2011, 07:24:10 AM
I posted my first four on a different forum so I hope you don't mind that I'll repeat it here:

"Vampire - Early levels are kind of hard because while in Normal/Ranked you can pretty much one-shot level 1s even at 1hp, it's a lot harder with the boss stats but once you get going you can basically slingshot easily to a win.

Transmuter - One of the stronger classes in the game because it gives the finger to luck. Did you get "locked" in by powerful monsters? Just blow up a wall for a measly 1 MP. If you get Binlor it's basically an automatic win although I managed to do without on my first try.

Assassin - I used a Goblin for this one. The most useful ability is the "automatically kill lower level" one since it means Meatman and Zombies (two of the most annoying enemies in this mode) just roll over automatically.

Berserker - Slingshot against Mage-type enemies (most of them don't get the huge improvements of enemy types, it seems), hope you get Cydstepp.

I also did Thief, Warlord, Sorcerer (all very strong classes) and Crusader."

As of now I added Tinker and Priest to the list. Rogue is annoying me because at level 1 if you meet a vampire you die instantly due to rounding errors.

What do you think of the Changeling class? I think it's weak but the creator of DD apparently disagrees with me. The best you can get is maybe using a Medusa to take down a 50% dude but a lot of abilities you can steal don't seem to help much for taking down high level guys (which is the basis of DD high level play).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 04, 2011, 06:31:21 PM
Yeah, I've since done Elf Fighter (first try) and Vampire (second try) and failed a bunch with Rogue.  In particular, I effectively didn't have a deity for Fighter (Pactmaker, but I only started worshiping at the very end and would have won without it) so...that pretty much shows that any non-Rogue class can do it if they get an early Pactmaker to recreate Fighter's one good ability.

Changeling seems...pretty good as long as there are gorgons on the map.  In particular, though, it's not an earlygame crusher like Sorceror, it's more of a boss crusher like Thief.  You get to polymorph the boss four times, and then can kill it at half health using First Strike Death Gaze.  So...can nearly always get away with dealing 200 damage to the boss and winning.

It's not totally worthless pre-boss either.  Stealing poison is quite valuable (steal it, fireball target twice, and attack once to poison.  Now regen).  Stealing protection from killing blow is also quite nifty, because it doesn't disappear when you shapechange.  Everything else is variations on "meh whatever" like one-use immunity to poison, one-use magical attack, one-use 50% defence, one-use first strike, one use 40% lifedrain.  I mean, like the Thief's one-time stabber bonus I'm not going to say no, but also like stabber it's not great.

I think I saw the post where you argued with the creator bringing up the challenge dungeons, and you're right about those.  Most of them don't have Gorgons and polymorphing is a lot less effective when you have two bosses to polymorph.  Granted, you should crush snake pit and I'm not too worried about Factory when level 9 animated armors exist to be fireballed, level 1 animated armors exist to give you free protection from killing blow, and you can polymorph Super Meat Man.  But like...the library; this class is practically vanilla in the library.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 05, 2011, 03:12:33 PM
So...beat the boss hive with Rogue.  Reset until there are no vampires on the map!  (On paper, being dwarf and converting glyphs until over 10HP would work too, as would levelling up before encountering a vamp).

Granted, it was still dicey because Rogue sucks (the boss was Aequitas, which means I couldn't survive a hit even though I was Dwarf.  Luckily Pactmaker was on the map...).

Good things can certainly come from hands off design!  Let the gamers shape and form the meta game.  The biggest problem with competetive SC1 was always that insanely high barrier of entry though.  SC2 did something about it by making it a far easier game, but it is still there.  I prefer my info to be accessible and/or fairly self evident.  Without constantly updating the in game info (Something WoW does actually -try- to do from Blizzard) then you are just going to run into the same problems again.

It makes for truely impressive high level play to have things like that!  But it doesn't really help you develop an e-sports community unless you have a massive influx of people based on brand power and whatnot.  This isn't like Baseball or Football where people have grown up playing Starcraft or watching their parent's favourite Starcraft team on TV (although the former may be true in 2-5 or so years!  It is going to be pretty amazing come time for the final Starcraft 2 episode when we might have a crop of 16 year olds that have been surrounded by the game for their entire lives/nearly their entire lives).

That is mostly why I really like shooters as the e-sports game, they are fairly easy to understand the direct outcomes to even the more amazing pieces of technical prowess.  Also really lets me know what bothers me so much about this idea of turning MMO PVP into a pro gaming scene.  They are just nearly impenetrable without playing the game given class balance and whatnot.

WoW is a godawful e-sport, because it's not casually watchable, yes.

SC2 and SC1 don't have that problem.  If you look at Korean broadcasts, they focus almost entirely on the battles, the micro, where it is very obvious what's going on.  There is a mysterious black box for casual viewers (the macro) but as there's always fights to watch (particularly in SC1) the viewer stays on the edge of her seat.  Seriously, SC1 at its peak drew a larger stadium audience in South Korea than the Superbowl did in America.

And...FPSs are not always intuitive.  Bunny Hopping, for instance: it moves you faster than running.  Also, speaking of "unit counters", Pyro sure seems like it's built to counter soldier with its deflection ability.  Pyro does tend to counter Scout, particularly in numbers.  ...and most 6v6 teams run two Soldiers, two Scouts, zero Pyros.  And as far as spectatorship goes...you can watch a Starcraft match without having played an RtS.  If you haven't played an FPS then it's damn near unwatchable.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 05, 2011, 05:12:49 PM
When I beat Boss Hive with a Fighter (Human fighter even), I think I sort of realized it... really isn't that hard.

Speaking of hard, have you ever completed the campaign, MC? The campaign starts out at average difficulty (Elf Rogue, then Elf Wizard) and then ends with what the hell (Elf BERSERKER vs a magic teleporting goat) and you got to ration gold between all of them.

Incidentally, if you were to rate the DD classes on a tier list, what would it look like? For me, Sorceror, Warlord, Assassin and Transmuter would be tops, while Fighter, Crusader, Bloodmage (ESPECIALLY bloodmage) would be around the bottom.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 05, 2011, 06:46:07 PM
Yeah, I've beaten the campaign.  Honestly I felt the first part of the campaign was decently hard: you're a non-Dwarf Rogue up against a boss who will always OHKO you with First Strike.  Part 3 well...if you get CYDSTEPP then you smoke it, and I've always gotten CYDSTEPP so......  I've heard it's still possible to win without but it sounds nasty.

Tiers...are we counting with deity or without deity.  For instance, Transmuter is ridiculous with Binlor, ridiculous with Eartmother (get stoneskin and drop gleefully into the negative piety range becaue Earthmother's punishment is irrelevant).  And...a pretty good user of Jehoira too due to so much free piety.  But without deity Transmuter is eh...okay.  Heal spell at half the mana...on an otherwise vanilla class with no health regen.  The amount you can heal per tile you explore is the same as a vanilla with HALPMEH.  Still a good class (you can heal twice the amount without exploring) but one dimensional (if your best strategy isn't healing: see Gharbad, Tower of Goo, Wraith, then you're screwed).

But then there's another question too: what matters more--power or consistency?  Like...Warlord is very consistent because it always starts with CYDSTEPP.  But...what would you rather be: a Warlord, or a Sorceror that happened to spawn near a CYDSTEPP?  Probably the Sorceror.

This is relevant when it comes to, say, Fighter, whose stats are indeed pretty sad, and yet I've never struggled with the class when I needed to use it to unlock something else.  Consistently fighter knows where to go with its radar, and consistntly Fighter reaches a decent level.  I wouldn't touch it in Gauntlet mode but I don't struggle to win in less-than-insane dungeons.

By comparison: Vampire: stupidly powerful at high level, but even in fairly easy dungeons they'll fail to get there half the time.

I will agree that Crusader seems to be awful, though.  I'm not even sure why; I look at the ability list and think "that sounds decent".

Bloodmage, they're hard to pilot, and inconsistent (can't use their best stuff until you have BURNDAYRAZ) but...wow, they can pump out a lot of damage against the boss, especially if you can preserve blood pools.  Thief is better at the same strategy, granted.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 05, 2011, 10:58:28 PM
Glibness for humor value because I am running late for work.

Quote
And...FPSs are not always intuitive.  Bunny Hopping, for instance: it moves you faster than running.  Also, speaking of "unit counters", Pyro sure seems like it's built to counter soldier with its deflection ability.  Pyro does tend to counter Scout, particularly in numbers.  ...and most 6v6 teams run two Soldiers, two Scouts, zero Pyros.  And as far as spectatorship goes...you can watch a Starcraft match without having played an RtS.  If you haven't played an FPS then it's damn near unwatchable.

I hear you girl.  BUFF PYROS.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 06, 2011, 01:40:07 AM
They did one time.  The original Backburner Pyro with 225 HP did see competitive play and the competitive scene lodged a reasonable complaint that it was a no-skill class.

If they'll buff anything it's airblast pyro, and to be fair airblast pyro sees occasional competitive use (on maps where knocking opponents to a lower level is powerful).

But that's not really the point.  Let's suppose two highly skilled Pyros do beat two highly skilled Soldiers in 2 on 2 deathmatch, and let's suppose two highly skilled Pyros do beat two highly skilled Scouts in 2 on 2 deathmatch.  Running a few numbers in my head these both sound plausible.  But so what?  Even though Soldiers and Scouts form 66% of most teams, they're not what a team should focus on fighting.  You need to be able to kill Medics; Medics with body guards (and often Demos with body guards).  Scouts and Rocket Jumping Soldiers can do this thanks to mobility.  Pyros can't.  Furthermore, many maps are focused on getting to a central area fast and denying the other team entry to the area usually through long range spam because that'll hit their door faster than running.  Scouts, Soldiers, Demomen, and Snipers are good at this.  Pyros are not.  You might ask about defence, and yeah, they're sometimess used on defence, but only when they outclass Heavy and Engineer (to say nothing of how you still want soldiers on defence to charge ubers, and still want Demos).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 09, 2011, 08:38:16 PM
So...TigerKnee asked me to do a tier list of how I would categorize the classes from the freeware version.  I gave a lot of "it depends" answers,  and roughly speaking that is accurate--the answer is "it depends" (like...some classes specialize in earlygame fighting, some specialize in lategame).  But, if we broke it down further into categories it's something I could number-crunch on.  And that's what I've done.

Quick note on these numbers--they're pretty naive.  They assumed an approximately level 8 hero fighting an approximately level 10 boss where the boss has 75 attack and no special defences.  The idea being that the same numbers scale to the lower level cases like "level 5 hero fights level 7 enemy for exp slingshot."  These numbers ignore little roundoff issues--which is to say, it assumes you use every last drop of mana and drop your HP to 1 with your attacks.  (I've done spreadsheets that accounted for roundoff error, but not for something so complex).  My one nod to roundoff error is that I assumed Priest and Bloodmage only used 80% of their full-heal effects.  One more assumption: these assume no great pickups in the dungeon--basically fireballs are the only good spell found, and no deity is found.


First up, how much damage you can deal when you're exhausting all your resources (including stuff like potions and Crusader's extra attack on death).  Basically, this is the power you pull out against the boss.  Note that I have a bunch of things listed as Elf, but most of these classes would squeeze in 50 extra damage or so in this table from being Halfling (or could be Human or Dwarf with ~30 less damage in this table but other advantages).

(undead only) Halfling Priest: 1601
High level vampire spamming fireballs: 1316   (intermixed with attacks on low level enemies to keep mana costs low)
Halfling Thief: 1145
Elf Thief: 1088
Halfling Priest: 890
Elf Transmuter: 886
(mage enemies only) Dwarf Berserker: 881
Elf Assassin: 769  (assumes an extra mid-battle level-up, because Assassins are good at that)
(physical enemies only) Human Paladin: 720 (Not counting healing from low-level undead)
Elf Sorceror: 698 (Gnome is a bit better but I didn't calculate it)
Elf Warlord: 693 (Gnome is a bit better but I didn't calculate it)
(physical enemies only) Gorgon: 641 (remember: Deathgaze 40%)
Elf Fighter: 639 (Assumes they gain an extra level from their 40 free exp, and that they saved their protection from killing blow)
Elf Crusader: 634
Elf Bloodmage: 590 (I assumed that all health potions were used to counteract mana potion damage)
Elf Tinker: 586 (I assumed +10% defence, Fine Sword, Pendant of Health, Pendant of Mana)
Dwarf Rogue: 572
(mage enemies) Elf Paladin: 540 (Not counting healing from low-level undead)
Human Monk: 540
Elf Wizard: 540
Dwarf Berserker: 508
Half-Dragon: 504 (assumes half knockback is the norm)
Vampire using physical attacks only: 445 (And this is why you should always plan to use spells as a vampire)
(mage enemies) Gorgon: 441 (Yeah, even with Death Gaze 40%.  Good thing the only mage boss immune to poison has nowhere near 441 HP).
Vanilla no-race: 375

Next up, regen-fighting.  Your damage-per-tile-explored.  Obviously the poison cases are going to vary--I'm assuming level 8 vs level 10 boss with 75ish damage, but if you're a level 1 assassin fireballing and poisoning a level 9 gorgon, there's no way a monk would be able to beat that enemy's regen.

Human Monk: 16.7
(mage enemies only) Human Berserker: 14.4
(physical enemies only) Gorgon: 12.4
(physical enemies only) Human Paladin: 11.3
Human Assassin: 10.9
(undead enemies only) Human Priest: 10.4
(mage enemies) Gorgon: 8.9
Human Sorceror: 6.4
(mage enemies) Human Paladin: 6
Human Transmuter: 6
(Human Warlord is right around here somewhere; hard class to nail down for regen fighting, because of wasted HP from CYDSTEPP).
Human Fighter: 5.6 (Assumes that the fighter gains an extra level over other classes)
Dwarf Rogue: 5.3
Human Tinker: 4.78
(physical enemies) Human Berserker: 4.2
Human Vanilla: 2.9
Non-Humman Vanilla: 1.1
Half-Dragon: -1.6 (Remember: I'm assuming no useful spell pickups beyond fireballs, and it can't use fireballs)
Vampire: -6.0 (Ah, the class with negative regen; Vamps are not very good at this strategy).

Repeatable burst damage.  This is like the first table--how much damage can you deal without exploration.  Except this time without any potions, and without any one-time effects like Fighter's protection from killing blow.  (But using stuff like First Strike).  

High level vampire spamming fireballs: 556   (intermixed with attacks on low level enemies to keep mana costs low)
Elf Transmuter: 340
(mage enemies only) Dwarf Berserker: 339
Human Warlord: 306
(undead enemies only) Human Priest: 296
(physical enemies only) Human Paladin: 277
Dwarf Rogue: 269
Elf Sorceror: 268
Elf Assassin: 255 (Assumes you can get a surround for first strike)
Elf Thief: 228
Elf Tinker: 225 (I assumed +10% defence, Fine Sword, Pendant of Health, Pendant of Mana)
Vampire using physical attacks only: 221
Elf Fighter: 221 (Assumes the fighter gains an extra level)
(mage enemies) Paladin: 208
Human Monk: 208
Elf Wizard: 207
Elf Priest: 198
Elf Bloodmage: 197
Dwarf Berserker: 195
Half-Dragon: 194
Elf Crusader: 192
(physical enemies only) Gorgon: 161
Vanilla no-race: 144
(magic enemies) Gorgon: 115


Next, this is more of a subjective list, but...consistency.  Like...Warlord is very consistent because it always starts with CYDSTEPP and it's great at using it.  Many classes are inconsistent because they need to pick up a spell like fireball before they can use half their resources.  Some classes are randomly awesome too, like Transmuter if it gets Binlor.  And...just as a general counterbalance to the classes that were screwed by this "you only find fireballs and no other useful glyphs" rule.

+++++++Inconsistency: Transmuter (Can't be blocked in ever.  Can just randomly break the game in a variety of ways.  Binlor.  Earthmother.  BLUDTOPOWA.  The store item "Stone Heart" which happens to double their signature spell).
++Inconsistency: Warlord, Paladin, Assassin, Sorceror (Start with very functional glyphs right out of the gate)
++-Inconsistency: Dragon (Mostly screwed by the rules I made for this table.  If you get a good spell for it, like the healing glyph, suddenly on most of these lists Half-Dragon goes from botom five to top ten.  Also, Half-Dragon can do Binlor and can't get locked in.  But...still has lots of trouble against magic-resist bosses like Gharbad and Iron Man).
+-Inconsistency: Monk (What they do is regen at double-speed, and you don't need to find glyphs for that.  But glyphs help, and finding early attack bonuses matters.  On the flip side, Monks can randomly break the game by buying a +defence item and/or grabbing Dracul's +defence boon).
+Inconsistency: Wizard (Gets a handy map to the glyphs.  Also, can sometimes do ridiculous things with low-mana-cost glyphs).
-Inconsistency: Berserker (Needs to find glyphs.  But...on the other hand, not actually as good at using glyphs, so doesn't need it as badly as other classes.  Also, inconsistently awesome if it finds CYDSTEPP, as it gains a rather mana-efficient spell)
--+Inconsistency: Gorgon (it kills things a lot faster if it can find an attack spell to spam before it re-poisons the enemy.  Buuut it always has poison).
--+Inconsistency: Fighter (Gets a map, and has a number of tools that make being stuck early unlikely.  Really needs to find glyphs, though).
--Inconsistency: Thief, Priest, Crusader, Tinker, Bloodmage (All depend on glyphs)
---+Inconsistency: Rogue (Dodge!!!  Finding the early HP buffs is critically important; without them you can never safely fight an enemy above your level unless it's just with First Strike.  That said, on the subject of "randomly awesome", death protection and healing are both nice spells on a Rogue--more mana-efficient than fireballs).
-------Inconsistency: Vampire (Half the time they die early; doesn't even matter too much whether the dungeon is easy or hard).

I'll also pause and make a brief note about multi-attribute dependency.  It exists; Priests, for instance, want to be Human for their regen fighting, Elf for their burst fighting, and Halfling for their boss fighting.  By comparison, Monks pretty much always want to be human.  Not really worth making a whole list over, though.

So...how does this add up?  Should I just take the average of all of these?  Well...no.  All that actually matters is killing the boss.  Being very powerful and consistent early will get you at best two extra levels from constant exp slingshots.  Two extra levels is like...35% more burst against the boss, and 4.5 more damage per tile in regen fights.  These are nice, but not enough to make, say, a level 10 Wizard better than a level 8 Vampire.

First things first, we need to aggregate the first two tables; you're going to pull out all the damage you can against the boss, which means both using all your potions, and using regen tricks if you have them.  Let's assume 50 tiles explored in the boss fight (1/8 of the map kept in reserve)...

(undead only) Halfling Priest: 1946
(mage only) Human Berserker: 1548
Human Monk: 1374
Vampire spamming fireballs: 1316
(physical only) Human Paladin: 1287
(physical only, poisonable) Gorgon: 1263
(poisonable) Human Assassin: 1249
Halfling Thief: 1245
Human Transmuter: 1111
Human Sorceror: 976
Halfling Priest: 946
Human Warlord: 908
Human Fighter: 889
(mage, poisonable) Gorgon: 885
(mage) Human Paladin: 840
Dwarf Rogue: 838
Human Tinker: 769
Human Crusader: 722
Human Berserker: 691
Elf Bloodmage: 645
Human Wizard: 613
Vanilla no-race: 542
Half-Dragon: 504 (Poor Half-Dragon--this does go up to 1134 if it gets the healing glyph!)
physical attacks only Vampire: 445

Alright, taking those basic numbers, and fudging some classes up and down by up to 30% depending on how easily they exp slingshot, and their consistency, I get something like...


1. Monk
2. Paladin
3. Assassin
4. Transmuter
5. Sorceror
6. Gorgon
7. Thief
8. Priest
9. Warlord
10. Vampire
11. Rogue
12. Fighter
13. Berserker
14. Bloodmage
15. Wizard
16. Tinker
17. Crusader
18. Dragon

EDIT: set more classes' listed race to human in the combined boss-killing list as I realized "oh wait, human better".  Warlord, for instance--human is better than Elf even on one-time burst damage and certainly for regen fighting.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 11, 2011, 12:40:10 AM
Ok, significant refinement.  Got in a number of fine details such as...

Roundoff error for potions and especially mana potions (assuming no special shops or anything--just all the health/mana pickups for the class which you will almost always have when you start pumping potions).

Unused resources.  I assumed about 2 unused mana on average (1 unused mana on average for Paladin, and 0 unused mana on average for Tinker).  I assumed about 30 unused HP--32 to be specific (scaled if the character has defences; so 15 unused HP for Monk).  This is especially critical for the repeatable burst table.

These are big enough that I will make a new post for them; partially because the comparison is interesting to me.

TABLE 1: Boss-Kill-Burst (do no regeneration, but unload on the boss with all potions and one-time effects).

(undead only) Halfling Priest: 1544
Vampire slinging fireballs: 1307 (Assumes low-level enemies to keep mana-costs down)
Halfling Thief: 1052
(others) Halfling Priest: 857
Elf Transmuter: 852
(mage only) Dwarf Berserker: 833
Elf Assassin: 726 (Assumes an extra mid-battle level-up)
(physical only) Elf Paladin: 681
Elf Warlord: 657
Elf Sorceror: 644
Elf Fighter: 589 (Assumes an extra level from Fighter)
(physical only) Gorgon: 589 (HP of enemy you can kill using Death Gaze)
Elf Crusader: 584
Elf Bloodmage: 556
Elf Tinker: 543
Dwarf Rogue: 515
(mages) Elf Paladin: 505
Elf Wizard: 502
Human Monk: 501
Half-Dragon: 468
Dwarf Berserker: 461
physical-only Vampire: 413
(mages) Gorgon: 391
Vanilla no-race: 335

Damage per tile explored; these numbers haven't really changed too much

Human Monk: 16.7
(mages only) Human Berserker: 14.4
(physical only) Gorgon: 12.4
(physical only) Human Paladin: 11.3
Human Assassin: 10.9
(undead only) Human Priest: 10.4
(mages) Gorgon: 8.9
Human Sorceror: 6.4
Human Transumter: 6.0
(mages) Human Paladin: 6.0
Human Fighter: 5.56
Dwarf Rogue: 5.3
Human Tinker: 4.8
Human Warlord: 4.7 (??? This one is tough to place, as you'll usually end up wasting some resources when you try to regen with CYDSTEPP).
Human Berserker: 4.2
Human Thief: 3.8
Human Bloodmage: 3.3
Human Wizard: 3.3
Human Crusader: 2.9
Human Priest: 2.9
Vanilla no-race: 1.11
Half-Dragon: -1.6
Vampire: -6.0

Next up we have the repeatable burst table; this table has been changed a decent amount by my recalculations--in particular, one-time burst effects (like first strike) now should play a more important role.

Vampire spamming Fireballs: 547
Elf Transmuter: 317
(mage only) Dwarf Berserker: 297
Human Warlord: 257
(physical only) Elf Paladin: 246
Elf Sorceror: 227
(undead only) Human Priest: 224
Elf Assassin: 221
Dwarf Rogue: 218
Elf Thief: 192
Elf Tinker: 188
physical-only Vampire: 188
Elf Fighter: 183
(mages) Elf Paladin: 179
Elf Wizard: 176
Human Monk: 175
Elf Priest: 164
Elf Bloodmage: 163
Elf Crusader: 162
Dragon: 160
(others) Dwarf Berserker: 153
(physical only) Gorgon: 136
vanilla no-race: 110
(mage only) Gorgon: 90

Finally, the table that combines the first two tables together (by assuming 50 tiles of regen fighting and all other resources spent on smashing the boss)

(undead only) Halfling Priest: 1889
(mage only) Human Berserker: 1490
Human Monk: 1334
Vampire slinging fireballs: 1307
(physical only) Human Paladin: 1233
(physical only) Gorgon: 1211
Elf Assassin: 1203
Halfling Thief: 1130
Human Transmuter: 1063
Human Sorceror: 916
Halfling Priest: 912
Human Warlord: 859
(mages) Gorgon: 835
Human Fighter: 834
(mages) Human Paladin: 791
Dwarf Rogue: 781
Human Tinkerer: 717
Human Crusader: 674
Human Berserker: 636
Elf Bloodmage: 612
Human Wizard: 566
Half-Dragon: 468
Vanilla no-race: 391

And again, taking this list and arbitrarily adjusting a few things up and down by up to 30% because of consistency and how much they're likely to level up we get....

Top:

Transmuter
Assassin
Paladin
Monk

High:

Sorceror
Gorgon
Warlord
Thief

Mid:

Vampire
Priest
Rogue

Low-Bottom:

Fighter
Berserker
Bloodmage
Tinker
Crusader
Wizard
Half-Dragon

Not a hugely changed list, as you might expect when all I'm adding in is allowances for roundoff in various places.  In fact, at least half of the movement came from me picking slightly different "fudge for level adjustment" factors.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 11, 2011, 04:49:16 AM
The new list seems fairly accurate to what I think to, though it's kind of strange Wizard and Berserker are so low. Wizard because its class abilities seems like it should be good and Berserker... well, I beat most of the e3 demo dungeons with it. Granted, the rules have changed quite a bit on that version but still.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 11, 2011, 01:49:33 PM
Wizard just...doesn't have stats.  -1 glyph cost is cool, but largely counteracted by their -25% attack power for their overall output.  And that's...pretty much it for stats.  So...that's basically a vanilla with glyph sight.

I do think there might be a flaw in this method in that it might be too skewed towards regenerators in that the top seven are there significantly on the back of regen (and two of those, Warlord and Transmuter, don't even strike me as being inherently regen focused).  Maybe the game is just balanced that way.  Then again, maybe I should do a third pass where I enter all the boss stats.  I've been assuming a boss with a physical attack no mana burn, no defences, no poison, no high attack power, no immunity to poison, and no death gaze.   Such a boss doesn't exit.  (Matron of Flame is the closest thing?)

Berserker, though, is roughly where it should be.  I've had trouble winning with Berserker.  I've seen forum posts elsewhere along the lines of "why can't I win with Berserker?"  Bear in mind that it's significantly buffed in the E3 version--if Wizard is any indication, then -1 glyph cost is worth roughly +25% attack power.  The E3 version also seriously lacks a mage race.  (As these charts show, +2 conversion Elves are good but not dominant.  +1 conversion Elves just suck).  Berserker cares about this not at all.  Oh, and there's no Halfling in the E3 version, so that hurts Priest, and to some extent Thief.  So...Berserker buffs should put it ahead of Fighter, and possibly Rogue, and Priest nerfs probably drop that class below Berserker too.  And most other classes are gone from the E3 version; Monk and Sorceror and probably Thief are still better physical classes than Berserker, but it might be around third to fourth best class in that version.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on June 15, 2011, 04:16:57 AM
Tried to get a bunch more Boss Hive wins. All I need is Wizard and Blood Mage now... so that being said...

Bloodmage Analysis:

I hate the Bloodmage.

I believe the design philosophy for the classes were that the tier 1 classes were supposed to be simple to pilot but average in power levels, while the later ones are more powerful but harder to use. This generally sort of works. Monk is better than Priest once you figure out that his abilities mean he can regenerate around 4 times as fast, although it breaks down for some, seeing as how Thief is really good (not top, but better than a lot of classes) while Sorcerer is honestly extremely simple and yet powerful too.

The Bloodmage manages to be the opposite of the Sorcerer. It's horrible and hard to use effectively and the strange thing is that I know classes had a huge overhaul in one version so I'm curious as to why it still terrible. I'm going to try analyzing it, but mostly with "concepts" rather than hard numbers (I've never been good at those)

Starts with Blood to Power Glyph: I'm curious as to why the developer believes this glyph is apparently on the same level as Halpmeh, Cydstepp and Poison to be locked along with them as a Tier 3 class. For one thing, it's not standalone. You need to get Fireball or Halpmeh or it's basically useless.

Let's see, it's great on Sorcerer, who can turn the extra mana into super efficient Halpmehs or Fireballs. Wizard works too for the same reason, although less efficient. It's great for Transmuters because... well, they don't regenerate health anyway. Maybe if I push a little I could say it helps Rogues with Fireball regen strategies to get an enemy to first strike range if they can't engage normally for some reason (you didn't pick Dwarf)...

But Bloodmage? He doesn't have anything to help the glyph at all! His other abilities are honestly kind of independent (they semi synergize with each other but not this one). I mean, a Paladin at least comes with physical resistance to facilitate regen strategies with Halpmeh.

Sanguine: The big problem with this ability is not forgetting about it. Normally, an enemy is blocking a corridor, I kill it and then I usually immediately click on the spot it was in to continue, using up the bloodstain. Not that you have a choice most of the time anyway, unless you want to use EndIsWall to carve out paths in the dungeon which I'm not sure is worth the regen tiles.

This ends up with me having maybe only 2 health potions worth of stains at the end of the dungeon. Is this good? I dunno, I could play a Thief, it'll be much easier on me. Would be much better with much more "open" maps though. If only they made it so that stepping on blood with full health wouldn't use it up...

Power Hungry: This ability does weird things to race selections, and I'm honestly not sure if I count it as a ability where you come out on top overall due to potion wastage. Hand-to-hand/Diamond body at least lets you be roughly even (except vs Poison/Mana Burn and Nagas) and rapidly grants you an advantage once you get Attack power-ups but this one... shrug, how does it work mathematically anyway? It seems to really hurt strategies which combine both magic and physicals since drinking a pot means dedicating yourself to tossing fireballs.

Oh yes, there's also the whole "forgetting about this ability" part. Seems to be quite the trend with Bloodmage, being able to screw yourself over. You start chugging down your mana potions, realize you don't have enough health potions to cover and go "FUDGE!"

Come to think of it, I should consider this ability for just taking out high level wraiths to exp slingshot. Is it worth spending a potion to take out a high level wraith?

Bloodmage Race selection:
Elf: This is basically the best one. You're a caster class... kind of (not that your abilities help with it), more mana means more fireballs and you want the most bang out of your Power Hungry potion use.

Gnome: This is interesting. Normally Gnome wins with Pactmaker while Elf wins without. On the other hand, you could very well end up with too many mana potions and not enough health potions to use them! Mana potion shops become a lot less useful because of that. Because of that, I would honestly go Elf for both consistency and because Bloodmage really needs more early killing power.

Human: This seems counterproductive in a sense. If you drink a potion or use BludToPowa, you're basically trading physicals for whatever damage your fireballs does. Does Halpmeh heal the extra damage from Power Hungry? I'm not sure if that glyph helps you gain an advantage overall.

Halfling: Mmm, nah. More health potions does ease power-hungry but it doesn't synergize with blood stains and Bloodmage isn't great with physicals.

Dwarf: This is kind of interesting too. Like Halfling, more health does ease power-hungry too AND it does synergy with blood stains. Still, Dwarf is weak for the most part and since you start with BludToPowa, one of the advantage of dwarves (you can start regen fights with enemies that would kill other races in one hit) is lost since you can just replace that with pure fireball regeneration.

Goblin: Shrug.

Orc: Nope. Don't use this. Inferior human.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 15, 2011, 03:39:38 PM
Yeah, I rounded up the last of the boss hive classes, but I'm not sure I posted about it (lost once with Tinker; so...I think that means my net losses on that dungeon are Tinker x1, Thief x1, Changeling x3, EDIT: oh right: Vampire x1, Rogue xbazillions).


Bloodmage...eh.  I mean, yeah, I can point to my first-pass spreadsheet calculation and say it's not great.

But it never actually seemed that weak to me.  Bloodmage can consistently deal about 670 fireball damage which is enough to just flat out kill...basically every boss except Iron Man, and Super Meat Man without ever taking a single attack from the boss (obviously you do take damage from the mana potions).

I'll agree that most of the bloodstains are wasted because they block corridors, but yeah, about 2 health potions (4 health potions if you're pretty careful) sounds about right.  Which, to be fair, is significant.  Halfling is a passable race even when most of what it does is offer 5 health potions.

BLUDTOPOWA is a good glyph.  Let me provide a number of use examples....  For instance, when you're using CYDSTEPP, you basically need to regen an extra 10 mana between fights--BLUDTOPOWA does this.  Similarly, when you're using Elf (as you mentioned, probably the best race for Bloodmage) you need more mana regen tiles than health regen tiles, so BLUDTOPOWA helps.  And of course, the absolute unholy trinity is if you get fireballs, BLUDTOPOWA, and poison--not only can you kill an enemy of any level, but you can do so reasonably quickly.  BLUDTOPOWA also lets you regen fight strictly with MP based abilities, which is sometimes very useful (it's about the only way to get extra damage against Wraith, and it was pretty much the basis for my high level Gauntlet runs).  BLUDTOPOWA is also good if you plan to worship Binlor and get Heroics.  (Which is to say, BLUDTOPOWA makes spamming the wall destruction glyph a lot more viable).  And...this is specific to two dungeons, but whenever you're up against vampires, you often want to regen your mana first, and only gain your HP at the last minute, reducing the chances of "damnit, vampire; that's a setback to my regen :("

Quote
how does it work mathematically anyway? It seems to really hurt strategies which combine both magic and physicals since drinking a pot means dedicating yourself to tossing fireballs.

Yeah, you don't combine magic and physical with bloodmage.  You pick the one that's better against the boss and do that.  Which...is actually decently strong--most bosses are built around being anti-physical or anti-magical.

For doing a physical bloodmage, it helps if you have the healing glyph.  I'll use level 10 as an example because the numbers are nice and round (and because it doesn't make a difference to the ratios), and again, obviously assuming Elf.

Mana Potions heal 23 MP, and deal 60 damage.  HALPMEH heals 30 damage.  So...once you heal away that HP damage, Mana potions effectively restore 17 MP, which is still quite a bit better than vanilla.  (Other classes going Elf with 6 glyphs like Bloodmage heal 9 MP.  Other classes with 5 glyphs going Elf heal 8 MP.  Non-Elves heal 5 MP).


And...I dunno about the top tier classes being just better.  When I didn't know what CYDSTEPP did, Warlord seemed like the worst class ever; I seriously needed multiple tries to beat a Normal dungeon (and yeah, I'm more skilled now than I was, but still).  Assassin...well poison is ludicrously powerful, but the rest of their abilities are...decent.  They'd be a midcarder without poison.  Paladin is knda bonkers, though.  "Unlike Monk and Berserker and Rogue which have a big downside for their powerful defence ability, let's just give Paladin 25% defence for free!"
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 20, 2011, 12:54:59 PM
Bannings Ho!

MtG banned (in Type 2) Stoneforge Mystic and Jace the Mind Sculptor.

Turn 4 two card combo is still intact (but it wasn't able to beat that deck with any consistency).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 24, 2011, 06:35:41 AM
According to Flores, Exarch-Twin is hurt badly by the loss of Jace TMS as well, so it's not an obvious best deck ( http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/td/148 ).   Valakut sounds like it's the default "deck to beat," but it's going to have the giant bullseye on it, and there ARE some ways to slow it down, even if they're not great.  (Stupid Primeval Titan fetching the lands right away.)

Also, super-slow response, but in general I agree with Grefter that minor "flavor" bonuses in SC2 would be newbie traps ("Why did my unit with +2 vs. Biological not hose Zerg like expected?!) and with MC that big bonuses vs. odd types leads to unsatisfying gameplay (a hypothetical big +Psionic bonus that randomly snipes Queens and Archons if you micro it, say), so the best thing is to keep it to just Armored / Light with occasional nods to Massive.  Also, Grefter, I wouldn't worry too much about what MC brought up - Hellions *do* counter lings and VRs do slay Roaches unstoppably.  It's just the difference between a tactical advantage and a strategic one  - sometimes even though the VRs would win the fight, if the Protoss player isn't ready, Roaches will still go burn down his expansion Nexus before the VRs can finish the job.  That's fine.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on June 24, 2011, 03:11:13 PM
Having discussed the MtG bans with some friends from local MtG group, they've pretty much agreed with me on one thing, at least: JtMS wouldn't've been that bad, except Mystic had to go. Mystic's the one that really centralised the meta, since it's a turn 2 card that always has an effect if it hits play - even if it's auto-killed, the sword comes down next turn and that's pretty much gg against some decks.
Jace wasn't that bad, but they couldn't boot Mystic for overcentralisation or for being overpowering when the bigger culprit was still around.

And after a quick discussion with a friend yesterday, we've established that this is nothing but good news for variety in the meta, at least: Anthem Goblins, Machine Red, Splinter Twin, Evil Twin, Mono-Black Vampires, Red/Black Vamps, WW Quest, Valakut, Eldrazi Ramp... A lot of those decks had trouble with CawBlade, but all of them are viable now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 24, 2011, 03:48:15 PM
From my understanding Jace isn't that bad in the same way that he is played in an overwhelming number of decks, even off colour ones just because he is that good.

Last time that happened to my knowledge was fucking Jitte which isn't even as bad as Jace because it was an artifact (that was played in control decks and even burn decks...).  So yeah.  Jace may be manageable, but fuck that shit.  I thought Jitte should be straight up banned.  Jace just sounds even more offensive to me personally.

Would be far from the first time WotC have printed two stupidly OP cards at the same time.  SO yeah, glad they stripped out two big offenders in one sweep.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 25, 2011, 02:45:32 AM
The elephant in the room is that Jace is Mythic Rare.  When *everybody* is playing the same card, and said card is Mythic, the price shoots up quite amazingly.   Normally something Wizards is happy about, but not to this extent.

I really hated the introduction of Mythics, on that note.  When I played senior year of college, it was Odyssey - Onslaught standard, and that was the era of complaining how "everybody was netdecking."  Of course part of this was the fact that everybody had access to at least cut-rate versions of competitive decks, and thus the metagame was way more awesome and less cost-controlled than modern formats -  U/G Madness was a rareless deck, Goblins just needed the rare Goblin Piledriver (and later Siege-Gang Commander, I suppose), R/G beatdown was rareless I think, and even Mono-Black Control mostly just needed Mutilates and some weird rares that weren't 4 ofs (Undead Gladiator, Skeletal Scrying, etc.).  Astral Slide / Beasts / Wake / weird stuff would need more, but it was a good mix, I thought.  Nowadays, while the fact that there are fewer crap rares is appreciated, it seems like commons have a tough time standing up to modern rares and Mythics.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on June 25, 2011, 03:34:11 PM
Nowadays, while the fact that there are fewer crap rares is appreciated, it seems like commons have a tough time standing up to modern rares and Mythics.

Commons, probably - there's only one major one from New Phyrexia I can think of, and that's Gitaxian Probe. There are a few uncommons that really stand out as being quite amazing, though - Mental Misstep, Despise, Beast Within and Dispatch, to name a few.

And Gref, Jace was used in a number of decks, yes, but if anything, that's worse than Jitte to me, in that it limits the strength of the card. The only reason I can see it being used in those decks is because it could both control the field and the card-draw (Brainstorm for free is sickeningly good, and probably the main thing that made it broken, and bouncing a creature made it too reliable against aggro.) However, Jace was too slow to compete against a lot of decks (it was always the sideboard out against mono-Red or WW Quest, for example) whereas Mystic was turn 2, get relevant Sword and a creature and then turn 4, put sword into play at the end of their turn and attach it and start smashing. That is, on average, the same turn Jace comes into play.
Oh, and if the Swords aren't going to be useful here? Not to worry! We'll just find Batterskull and have a 4/4 Lifelink Vigilance guy out and attacking on turn 4. Mystic got killed before turn 3? Not to worry, we still have a sword to play on turn 3 and then equip on turn 4.
Like I said, Mystic was the much bigger problem here. Jace is an amazing utility card, but can't do shit on his own. Mystic was amazing utility and can do stuff on her own, thanks to the ridiculous power of Swords. It just makes more sense to get rid of one card than 3, and so Mystic goes - but they can't feasibly support a Mystic ban without getting rid of the primary candidate for over-centralisation, and that is JtMS.

As it goes, new Jace is pretty shitty, so it seems like the era of Jace has passed for good?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 28, 2011, 12:55:39 AM
Let's be clear here: Jace 2.0 is heavily used in every format including Extended, Legacy, and Vintage, and has been run in every kind of deck (including primarily Alara decks that otherwise ran nothing but creatures).  Hell, it has a tier 1 Vintage deck named after the card.  It's the best blue card they've printed in a very long time.  And there's really no individual card that beats it right now.  Entire strategies can work together to beat it (weenie swarms), but these can be beaten too (wrath).

As for Jace 3.0 spelling the end for Jace...I'm not sure.  It's not Jace 2.0, no, but it's decent.  That's a good +1, especially since the rumors predict a graveyard block (flashback, threshold).  The -7 can win games in any combo deck.  The +0 is a 5-turn clock (sometimes 4 turn clock).  I don't expect dominance from it, but it wouldn't surprise me if it saw play.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 19, 2011, 04:58:56 AM
FFT

So...I enjoy going back and looking at vanilla FFT's class imbalance and theorizing about it.  Everyone knows it's imbalanced, but there's never a total agreement on how it's imbalanced.  I'm going to use a new approach here; namely, I'm going to ban the most centralizing class in the metagame, evaluate the new metagame, and then ban whatever class has become the new most centralizing class.

First, let's loosely split the game into four sections:

Earlygame (about 200 JP to play with; Chapter 1)
Midgame (about 600 JP to play with; early-mid Chapter 2)
Lategame (about 1800 JP to play with; early-mid Chapter 3)
Endgame (abbout 5400 JP to play with; End of Chapter 4 for store unlocks; maybe a little poaching; maybe some brave-faith modifying)

The JP numbers are sort-of ballparks (lots of things to account for, like job levels, overshooting JP targets, initial starting JP in classes).  I have a wiki analysis of this kind of stuff somehwere (http://rpgdl.com/wiki/index.php/FFT_JP_Learning_approximations), but I'm mostly going to fudge this a lot.

______________________________________

So anyway, in Vanilla, the balance is something like...

Earlygame: Wizard (Bolt), Chemist (Potion Phoenix Down), Knight (stats, Weapon Guard), Time Mage (haste), Squire (Move+1, GJPU)
Midgame: Summon Magic
Lategame: Math Skill
Endgame: Math Skill

Well, Calculator completely dominates both Lategame and Endgame, so they seem like they should be the first to go.

Ban list
1. Calculator

______________________________________

Right, so let's evaluate the fresh, post-ban metagame.

Earlygame: Wizard (Bolt), Chemist (Potion Phoenix Down), Knight (stats, Weapon Guard), Time Mage (haste), Squire (Move+1, GJPU)
Midgame: Summon Magic
Lategame: Summon Magic
Endgame: Summon Magic, Draw Out, Time Magic

Yeah, it's clear here what's centralizing; why go for Draw Out or Time Magic when Summon is arguably going to be better even in the late game?

Ban list
1. Calculator
2. Summoner

______________________________________

FFT post-banning #2

Earlygame: Wizard (Bolt), Chemist (Potion Phoenix Down), Knight (stats, Weapon Guard), Time Mage (haste), Squire (Move+1, GJPU)

Midgame: Chemist (Auto-Potion, and kinda guns), Time Mage (Teleport--although it's a stretch to fit into the 600 JP slot), Wizard (Magic Attack Up, stats), Priest (Holy), Lancer (Chapter 2 Lancer equips), and a lot of the earlygame stuff.

Lategame: Time Mage (Meteor, Short Charge--a slight stretch JP-wise for this category, but job levels help), Ninja (stats).  (And a few other pretty good tier 2 options, like Lancer and Dancer and Monk), and several midgame options get better because they can be combined (why not get Teleport and Auto-Potion and Magic Attack Up?)

Endgame: Samurai (All of the sudden gets Kikuichimoji, Kiyomori, Muramasa, and spare JP to spend on things like Teleport and MAU).  Time Mage (Quick is a ridiculous spell with faith modification.  Full party MP switch shenanigans are doable.  Short Charge Meteor is still really good.  Everyone wants Teleport).  And behind these but still noteworthy...Lancer (Jump gains some ludicrous equips from poaches etc) Oracle (all of the sudden they're Batman--they always have a plan).  Most other strategies don't keep up so well.  However, RSM stuff like Wizard (stats, MAU) and Chemist (Auto-Potion) are still really important.

OK, let me go over the ones that I don't feel are too centralizing and do this by process of elimination.

Chemist: Phoenix Down, on its own, is a top-5 skillset.  But among well-optimized setups other stuff does get used.  Auto-Potion is fantastic, but it has competition (like racing to a power-setup instead of making youself awesome in the midgame) and by the endgame it starts to have competition anyway (MP Switch shenanigans, Samurai probably just grab Blade Grasp, etc) so it's not crazy for any one character never to learn it.

Samurai: Endgame Draw Out is ridiculous, pretty good argument for best, but it has competition.  But...I don't feel it's strong at all in even the lategame slot.  1800 JP gets you, what, an unlocked Samurai class and like...Heaven's Cloud, but probably not enough for both Heaven's Cloud and Teleport?  Certainly it's not crazy to go a class with more power earlier in the game and skip Samurai.

Time Mage: For all that it'd be weird to have an endgame character that used nothing from Time Mage, it's not really super centralizing because every setup uses something different.  Quick strategies are different from haste strategies are different from Teleport Draw Out strategies are different from Short Charge Meteor strategies are different from MP switch strategies.

Squire: Makes a bunch of non-lategame abilities cry.  But unlike other centralizing issues, I don't know if banning GJPU and M+1 will really add...that much metagame variety, because a lot of the competition these crowd out are just so bad as to not be probably not worth the JP in the first place.

Wizard: Kinda just the auto go-to carrier class.  And MAU is just the auto go-to for...some setups (notably Draw Out, midgame Black Magic smash).  And Black Magic makes other early-mid game setups cry.  ("Oh look, you can deal 36 damage with Wave Fist?  Wouldn't you rather deal twice the damage with AoE instead?")

Yeah, of these, Wizard stands out more than the others of "yes, obviously you use this class".  Ban it!

Ban list:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard

______________________________________

Now, this ban list seriously scrambles everything.  Mages now can't deal damage until the midgame.  Demi is now the only early AoE, and it's awful early on.  Archers are suddenly cool earlygame because they have range (and even Throw Stone is worth a look).  In the earlygame, suddenly Haste is now a complete monster.  Normally it's not, because MP is a premium--why are you wasting that Bolt MP, and because you want to keep your CT lined up with the enemies so that you can drop Bolts on them.  Now, none of those restrictions apply, and if you're running a party without Haste then that must be a weird setup (like a mass 40-faith party).

Midgame...Priests rise in value for Holy (now practically the only way to take advantage of "Chapter 2 mage equips rock face".  Well...other than mage physicals hurting as much as Knight physicals).  Monk and Geomancer start being cool just for the range which is now a premium.  Haste is still bonkers and almost mandatory for any serious party.  But mostly, the gamebreaking stuff is the same (Teleport, Auto-Potion, Lancer equips).

The lategame doesn't change a whole lot.  Short Charge Meteor is still good; Ninja is still good.  Lancer, Dancer, and Monk don't change much.  What drops in value is setups that rush to Teleport and Auto Potion, because they don't get to deal big damage through Wizard.  They can still pick up a Mithral Gun, though, so they're actually fine.

In the endgame, not a whole lot changes, but the best setup now pretty much becomes Time Mage with Draw Out and Short Charge.  TM gives you game-best MA.  Short Charge Quick self for near infinite movement, which rules when combined with Draw Out.  And i guess you can always do a faith raised Short Charged Meteor.  The one caveat is that you might want revival.  Time Mage with item, and Priest with Draw Out are two viable alternatives.  And there's Ninja/Lancer with item if you have a Ninja/Lancer lying around that you never re-trained.


So...banning Wizard makes two classes rise above the others as suddenly very centralizing.  Chemist, because all of the sudden in the earlygame, midgame, and often also lategame...what are your secondary skillsets?  Chances are it's something like four characters with Item, one character with Time Magic.  Seriously, what else are you going to use?  Most skillsets need a good 1000+ JP investment to really compete with that level of power.  The other class that seems centralizing is Time Mage because...Haste becomes so good, suddenly Short Charge becomes the "auto-get" support for several classes, and all of the sudden Time Mage has the highest MA, so it gets some of the spotlight Wizard had.

Thing is, though, with Wizard and Summoner gone, Time Mage is suddenly a lot less attractive; you can't just save straight up for Meteor and Short Charge and expect to still be effective for the party in the mean time; you don't automatically have good damage just by virtue of being a mage.  And...even Haste isn't an auto-go because "40 faith party" is actually a strategy worth seriously considering.  Yeah, Teleport is still centralizing, but so is Auto-Potion.  Given a metagame without Wizard/Summoner support, I think Chemist becomes the #4.

Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist

______________________________________

So what does the metagame look like now?

Notably we haven't done much to one of the classic "big bad" setups.  Ninjas are kinda like Summoners in that you can get near maximum output from them very quickly (Concentrate and Move+2 are in their unlock path)...but they don't get a whole lot better after that.  They're sort-of a measuring stick against which all other setups need to compare themselves...but I'm of the opinion that several do.

in lategame: Lancers can deal almost Ninja damage from 8 range while avoiding damage and being in generally tankier classes.
in endgame: Time Mages do all kinds of crazy stuff.
in endgame: Draw Out becomes very, very good.
in lategame: Dance is quite powerful; it arguably has an expiration date, but it's a reasonable stepping stone on the way towards Time Magic or Draw Out or really anywhere you want to go.  Get a couple dances, then switch to the class of choice, and whenever you can't be productive with that class, just Nameless Dance.

The other thing to note is that very little is inexpensive anymore.  Time Mage and Ninja are probably two classes with targets on their head right now, but both of these classes were using Item pretty heavily pre-ban (because hey, it's very good and it doesn't take work to get).  They're both now scrambling for skillsets they don't really want to spend the time to get--I mean, what does Ninja do; master Punch Art?  Master Jump?  Get Dance?  These are all big detours Ninja would rather avoid since chilling in Ninja is awesome.  Similarly for Time Mage...do you get Draw Out/White Magic/Dance/Yin Yang Magic/Talk Skill first?  And what about reaction abilities?  We're talking about two low-HP classes that gain a lot from Auto-Potion being ridiculously accessible.

The physical side of the job tree probably remains more attractive earlygame, which is bad news for Teleport dominance.  Especially the part where Ninja is big, as it's going to favour Move+2.  And, while, yes, almost every team wants Haste, that's only one secondary slot, not five, so it's not centralizing in the sense of squeezing other skills out of the metagame.

You know, I'm not really sold on either of these right now; Time Mage seems to be hurting from the downfall of the magic side of the job tree.  Ninja actually has decent competition in classes like Lancer (a skillset I don't normally take seriously, because "use a Summoner", but with Summoner gone Lancers are now noteworthy).

But you know who is centralizing?  Squire.  Especially now that a lot of the low-JP stuff is banned and you need to earn 1000+ JP if you want a real skillset.  Especially now that Magic Attack Up isn't your auto endgame plan--where you might theoretically want different supports for different fights--Defence Up for this one; Equip Gun for that one.  With GJPU there's a tendency to get only two supports: "This is my GJPU support" and "This is my kicking ass support".

Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire

______________________________________

This is going to have...a rather interesting impact on the metagame.  I'm not sure what abilities will rise to the top as earlygame supports now--Equip Change is not an option due to the Chemist ban.  Nor is Equip Axe due to the Squire ban (which actually would be solid for some classes in Chapter 1).  Equip Shield, Secret Hunt, and Martial Arts are inexpensive pickups that can give a small boost to several classes, so they're considerations.  It's also possible supports will just be ignored until the 400 JP level (DU, MDU, Concentrate, Attack Up).

But the JP impact will be more significant.  First of all let's look at non-spillover JP.  GJPU gains you 50% more JP, so dividing all the JP values by 1.5 gives us...

Earlygame: 130 JP
Midgame: 400 JP
Lategame: 1200 JP
Endgame: 3600 JP

But that ignores roundoff, and spillover JP is not affected by GJPU, so it's probably more realistic to divide JP by 1.3 or so.

Earlygame: 150 JP
Midgame: 450 JP
Lategame: 1350 JP
Endgame: 4150 JP

So using these, the new metagame is something like...

Earlygame: Knight, Archer, Priest--these are the only classes available to you, and they're all solid.

Midgame: Time Mage for Haste and Slow is great (but non-centralizing).  You can have like...a Monk with Wave Fist, but I'm honestly more impressed by Mediator with Romanda Gun.  You can just barely unlock Lancer and learn nothing in the class, but that's still enough to replace Knight and stand out for having stats.

Lategame: Move+2 Concentrate Ninja.  Most of the other stuff formerly in this category really does cost 1800+ JP.  You can't get to Dancer in time anymore; you have to cut some Punch Art; you can get Level Jump 8 for Lancer but no significant vertical jump.  You certainly can't get both Short Charge and Meteor.  You can get Teleport, but what are you getting Teleport for?  Teleport Geomancer?

Endgame: Draw Out Time Mage is still probably dominant, although kind-of tight on JP now.  Might have to skip, say, Meteor.  (In fact, Samurai is just tight on JP in general--I assume you want Kikuichimoji, Kiyomori, Muramasa, Murasame, one of the cheap ones like Koutetsu, and might as well stay for Blade Grasp.  That's like...3000 JP--job levels help here, making it more like 2400 JP, but unlocking Samurai is another 1250 JP or so, which means 3650 altogether; that leaves, what, 500 JP?  It's a stretch to even afford Teleport...).  An initial rush to Dancer and then using dances to get to lategame in another class (such as TM, Samurai) is a lot less impressive now--there's just not that much room for detours.

So...know who's looking really damn good right now?  Ninja; they just don't need the JP.  They seem like clearly the best in Lategame, and for Endgame they can easily augment their Lategame performance with, say, mastered Punch Art (while still having JP to spare to get like...Two Swords to make grinding in Monk more hilarious).  Ban 'Em.


Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja

______________________________________

And now...honestly I'm going to go back to the old JP values, namely

earlygame: 200 JP
midgame: 600 JP
lategame: 1800 JP
endgame: 5400 JP

The reason being is as follows: these numbers were chosen fairly carefully--600 JP is enough to unlock all of the basic classes and do something with them.  1800 JP is enough to unlock all the advanced classes and do something with them, and to get almost any one ability in the game.  5400 JP is meant to throw Mime a bone by letting them at least get unlocked at the very, very, end of the game although...wait, 5400 is still not really enough for Mime.  You know what, let's deliberately fudge these up a little and pretend I planned for Mime all along.

earlygame: 233 JP
midgame: 700 JP
lategame: 2100 JP
endgame: 6300 JP

(These actually fit a bit better with how I've been ballparking things--like Teleport being possible in midgame, and Short Charge Meteor and CT5Holy being possible in lategame; clearly these are the numbers I really meant to use).

Anyhow, earlygame and midgame have been showing themselves reasonably healthy, and the stuff that's good in these time periods doesn't tend to stay dominant (except Haste, but in a non-centralizing way).  For instance, Holy from midgame gets outclassed by Short Charge Meteor from lategame.

It's in the lategame/endgame that I'm expecting to find balance problems with the current classes.  So...we're looking for a class that completely centralizes a time period, or is very dominant in multiple time periods.  Which means the candidates are...

Time Mage (lategame, endgame, and to some degree midgame--Archer with Teleport can be dumb).
Lancer (lategame, endgame, and to some degree midgame--Chapter 2 Lancer equipment is dumb).
Dancer (lategame, and makes a good secondary for any class you want to train for endgame).
Samurai (endgame).

I'm inclined to strike Dancer and Samurai from this list.  They're really good in their respective time periods, but they certainly don't need to be your plan A.  So...Time Mage and Lancer.

midgame: I'd say Time Mage takes it.  I'd rather have a hasted Knight than a Lancer.  And...Teleport breaks some maps far more than Haste ever could.  Not that midgame matters too much--it's not really the strength of either of these classes.

Lategame: You know what's funny?  This is basically Chapter 3 Time Mage SCC vs Chapter 3 Lancer SCC--it's not like either of them can have much of a secondary without Item or Black Magic or Summon Magic available.  Lancer probably grabs Steal Heart, and Time Mage probably gets some low-level white magic.  Actually, Lancer might delay a bit and grab Move+2, which is a nice upgrade from the SCC.  There is one noteworthy difference, though--spillover JP.  One Time Mage going for Short Charge Meteor gets your entire team Teleport from spillover JP, which is pretty cool.  Lancer can do something similar with Dragon Spirit, but it's not as good, and it's not as free (not everyone will have Lancer unlocked).  Anyway, Time Mage SCC vs Lancer SCC in Chapter 3 is...actually not obvious for which is better: they both completely and utterly smash it.  Yardow threatens a reset if played wrong, probably, but...yeah.  There's an extra variable, though--which class does teamwork better in a diverse team?  And that's probably Time Mage--with teammates who can mop up after Meteor lands, teammates who can hit opponents with non-CT moves, potentially teammates who can heal MP, potentially teammates who can Pray Faith, and teammates who benefit a lot more from haste.

Endgame: Lancer spikes up a lot here.  Poached spears are a big spike in damage.  Switching to another class and wearing a Power Sleeve is a big spike in damage.  Thief Hat is a big spike in useability.  Which...all serves to even the playing field, because the Time Mage SCC smashes Chapter 4 and the Lancer SCC does not (barring high levels).  But then we get to the stuff Time Mages gain.  Permanent faith boosting, the fact that they're probably the best carrier for arguably the best skillset at this point (Draw Out).  The spare JP to add a reaction ability (when frailty was always a weak point).  Time Mages seem better here, too.

Just...midgame, lategame, endgame, all seem to favour Time Mage over Lancer.  OMGWTF ban.

Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage

______________________________________

So...what now?

Earlygame: Priest is kinda cool, being the only available healing/reviving at this point.  Knight has the stats, Archer has the range, Thief has Steal Heart.  But nothing is really mind-blowing.

Midgame: Priest has Holy, and can deal around 252 damage with it...once.  Monk has Earth Slash and can deal 48 damage with it.  Geomancer has elemental and can deal...40 damage with it.  Archer has lightning bow and can deal ~56 damage with it.  Lancer can deal 108 with a Jump, but doesn't have much range.  Mediator can deal 36 with a Romanda Gun.  Oracle has Battle Bamboo for 77 damage.  Hm...of this group, I'm most impressed by Geomancer, Lancer, and Priest.  In non-damage...thief has probably the best RSM in Move+2, which is now basically without competition.  Oracle/Mediator have some high power status in Sleep/Mimic Daravon, with Sleep probably being the more powerful of the two (75% hit rate instead of 50% hit rate).  Silence Song is also awesome.  Invitation is worth considering if you plan to poach.  But...really, nothing here stands out as especially dominant.  Probably the best is like...Oracle with Holy, where you blast one target, and then run around giving out stick beats.  Toss in Silence Song to break a couple Chapter 2 fights.

Lategame: Lancer goes up to oh, 143 at range 8, vert 7.  Holy doesn't change much; maybe like 275 now.  Geomancer's elemental doesn't improve much, but physical attack gets...to the levels of what Lancer does at range 8...yeah, nevermind.  Mediator goes up to 64 gun damage.  Monk's Earth Slash gets a big boost from Power Sleeve and Attack Up to 144.  Early Samurai stuff is like...Heaven's Cloud Oracle at 196.  In fact...huh, Blade Grasp + Koutetsu fits in under the 2100 JP cap (168 damage).  You do need to switch out of Samurai to bring your A-Game to that, of course.  Oh, I just realized, Equip Shield is totally the new Magic Attack Up--yeah, raise all the magic damage numbers (210 damage for Heaven's Cloud Oracle; 300 damage for Holy).  Nameless Dance is nasty at this point in the game, of course.

Endgame: Lancer spikes massively to 289 damage by switching to Geomancer or Monk with a poached spear and PA boosting.  Holy doesn't change much (I'm calculating 336; more like 400 after faith boosting) but notably Holy is now castable 3+ times so you can spam it.  Oracle becomes a beast due to ridiculous versatility and raised faith.  Draw Out...Muramasa Oracle is 324; Kikuichimoji Oracle is 288; Kiyomori is hax; Move+2 helps Draw Out a lot.  Two Hands Oracle can deal 544 damage with Whale Whisker.  Monk likes levels and bracers, gets a 256 Earth Slash; Monk has zero versatility, though--can't switch out equipment; can't have HP; can't have speed.  Mediator gets elemental guns with robes for ~211 damage.



It's kind-of interesting how there seems to be quite a bit of competition at several levels; not always the same classes.  I'm...really leaning towards Samurai on this one, though.  The best endgame skillset is one thing.  The support ability that allows for the highest damage in the game with no real drawback is one thing.  Unexpectedly solid lategame setup is also nifty, but what's really getting me here is Blade Grasp.  Now, I've gone on rants about how Blade Grasp isn't that special, how Auto Potion is pretty much just better and BG is overhyped.  Now ask yourself, what competition is not already banned?  Auto-Potion?  Banned.  MP-Switch?  Banned.  Critical Quick?  Banned.  Sunken State?  Banned.  Abandon?  Banned.  Hammedo?  Not banned, and situationally much better, but "usually doesn't stop enemy archers" is often a deal-breaker, not to mention that doesn't work on monsters thing.  Damage Split?  Banned.  HP Restore?  Mediocre except in boss fights where you can predict enemy zodiac, faith, and stats.  So...yes, if you ban all of Blade Grasp's competition, then suddenly it becomes very, very centralizing.

Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai

______________________________________

So...what now?  The biggest shakeup is that the obvious best endgame option is gone.  Who has the best Chapter 4 now?  And how do you answer this question in the case of interesting hybrid setups, like combining Equip Gun with Jump and a stolen elemental gun?  Well...let's go for a simpler question: what class has the easiest SCC in the endgame?  And I believe the correct answer is Oracle (or Mediator with elemental guns).  Who benefits the most from multiclassing?  Lancer loves being able to use Clothes and poached/stolen items.  Priest loves to play the support role and have allies that don't run out of gas.  Dancer loves to have teammates who can blitz and generally deal with non-statusable enemies; in fact, Dance can easily go on just about any class.  Mediator has essentially no R/S/M abilities in the SCC, so that's big, and they do a whole bunch of slow long-term stuff that doesn't come out in the SCC, like breeding.  And Equip Gun is...actually probably quite good; hold on, let's analyze this....

What are the best remaining support abilities that you'd take into a tough fight?  Not counting skillset specific ones (Martial Arts, Equip Spear) there's...

Equip Shield (chibi Magic Attack Up in lategame onwards.  And there's also elemental shield shenanigans).
Equip Gun (now that there's no MAU or GJPU, very few setups wouldn't be better with a gun, and more improved than they would be by, say, Attack Up or +1 MA).
Attack Up (has its uses too, of course, like boss blitzes and Monks).
Defense Up (Almost always relevant, and pretty significant).
Magic Defense Up (More niche, but when it's good, it's very good).

Most of these cost too much to be pulled out early (in fact, a lot of them seem more endgame than lategame) but this is definitely a point for both Oracle and Mediator endgame.

Hm, Dancer's value has probably gone down a little.  Dancer/Monk and Dancer/Lancer seem sub-par because of being female.  Dancer/Oracle and Dancer/Mediator feel kind-of redundant.  Dancer/Priest seems fairly solid, but grinding to Dancer takes longer than just sitting in Priest and learning a bunch of good abilities.


Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place; though--maybe endgame has reached a happy equilibrium.  What about lategame?  Lategame is...being brutally smoked by Lancer.  Yeah, Monk and Priest are competitive on the damage, but we've got the SCC comparison for this one; it's not particularly close.  And...hey, Lancer was in the running for endgame anyway.  OMGban


Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer

______________________________________

With Lancer gone we get an interesting metagame shift--all of the sudden, Oracle has the best physical damage in Chapter 2.  Not really in endgame Chapter 4 which can see brave-raised Monk and silly stuff like that, but they aren't bad due to poaches.  Granted, I'd argue guns > sticks regardless.

Mediator and Oracle are funny, because they're both pretty powerful among the remaining classes, but they fill niches (and similar niches at that making neither one dominant) so they're not exactly centralizing.

Well...with Lancer gone, does the dominating of Chapter 3 get picked up by another class?  You know, I'd hazard a guess at Priest.  Their high speed isn't a penalty like it is in Chapter 2 (in fact, it lets them hit Ninjas safely even if the Ninja move-waits).  There's lots of assassination missions.  Enemy totals tend to cap out at 6ish--no Golgorand or Sluice.

And...Priests seem like a fine choice anyway.  I'm thinking the highest damage-per-character-per-turn in the current midgame is like...three priests, and two Monks with Chakra to heal MP so that the priests can Holy every turn.  Mage damage in chapter 2 is just that out-of-whack that dedicated MP-healing is actually worthwhile.  Granted, this requires finding flat terrain and moving as a group so that Chakra hits multiple targets.  (In Chapter 3 it just requires one Bard with Angel Song, and yeah, that easily wins damage-per-character-per-turn in Chapter 3, too.  Also Chapter 4.  For all that I'm inclined to take full-party combos with a grain of salt--I'm not basing this list around The Quickening or Sunken Stated Dance--that still stands out to me).  Yeah, PriestHax seems the sensible thing to cry here!


Ban-List:
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest

______________________________________


And...that's where I'm going to stop for tonight.  Whee, FFT analysis; easy way to eat up 12 hours of a vacation......
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on July 19, 2011, 09:59:36 AM
I'm actually interested to see what you think of the class balance and design  in two certain "close to completed" total conversion patches for FFT.

Celdia's Class Patch:
http://ffhacktics.com/smf/index.php?board=60.0

and Eternal's Parted Ways:
http://ffhacktics.com/smf/index.php?board=48.0

When I was beta-testing Celdia I think I actually used the "Phoenix Down on its own would be a top tier skillset" line too, which is amusing.

There's a bunch of my scattered analysis (though not many mathematical ones) throughout the forum, sometimes in Bug Reports, Discussion or Battle Logs and I'm kind of interested to know what you would think of certain changes that I did analysis on, such as Two Swords -> Two Guns, Mustadio new Elemental formula attacks in Engineer class and weapon balance.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 19, 2011, 12:23:30 PM
Sooooooooooooooooooooooo goooooood. <3
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 19, 2011, 02:18:58 PM
Looking at patches would be...a lot more work for me.  I do kinda have almost every number in FFT memorized, SCC results for various classes in my back pocket, Speed run pathways that various people used (at first people did like...Ninja, taking 9 hours, then Ramuh spam, taking 7 hours, then a solo calculator grinding out mastery in Chapter 1, taking 5 hours).  I've done other lists that I approached from the other way around: drop the least useful class, look at remaining classes, repeat (which is interesting because it's a very different list: Lancer, Samurai, and Dancer end up much lower because they can't touch Calc; Time Mage ends up a lot higher because it keeps the suport of Wizard/Summoner.  Oracle was also higher; certainly above Priest).

Basically, I have a huge mental network already tuned to FFT, and FFT only that allows me to shuffle stuff around in my head easily.  I started working through this list mentally before I decided I should write things down.  That kind of spontaneous project can't happen with a patch.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TigerKnee on July 19, 2011, 02:56:18 PM
I know what you mean. One thing I'm having trouble getting used to those patches is that after LFT I absolutely can't stand the standard progression for JP in FFT anymore, but just about every fanpatch uses Vanilla FFT for JP costs.

Speaking of the spontaneous list project thing, I honestly found it funny that Squire is like 5th to be banned. I mean, I know Move + 1 and Gained JP up is great and... actually, yeah, they're basically what you slap into your support and movement slot 24/7. Nevermind. Still, it's funny because the Squire skillset is just so terrible.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 21, 2011, 10:22:44 PM
So...to recap, the banned classes so far are...

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest

So what do things look like now?

One thing I want to talk a little about is unique roles.  Monk is now the only class with revival left; does that mean they'll be centralizing; that everyone will need to have Punch Art secondary?  Well...not necessarily, in the same way that Haste from Time Mage wasn't centralizing even though every party wants it; you don't need it on every character.  Similarly, Monk is some of the only healing--is this centralizing?  Well...no, because it's mostly self-healing due to 0 vertical tolerance and range 1 on a 3-move class; and as far as self-healing goes it needs to compete with Life Drain from Oracle.  As far as healing others...Bard makes a decent claim at being better than Monk with Life Song (and Life Song is really not that good).  Ice healing setups also provide some competition, although also not very good competition.

Earlygame: Knight and Archer are pretty top tier here.  I guess Thief has the best skillset with Steal Heart?

Midgame: With all the other strong midgame options gone, Geomancer starts standing out from the crowd for Elemental with Chapter 2 mage equips.  The only decent competition for that is like...Mediator with Charge+3, which deals slightly more damage (54) at a decent range bonus, but never statuses and never hits AoE.  Oracle is gamebreaking in a small number of situations (Silence Song against mages; Life Drain against Queklain) and stick damage is now the gamebest damage.  You can get Move+2 if you don't care about having a skillset, but ehh....

Lategame: I've already written about Monk reaching 140ish Earth Slash damage with Attack Up and PA boosting.  What I didn't do a good job of exploring was optimized gun setups.  Mithral Gun + Attack Up + Charge+4 = 128 damage.  Oracles are good, and still crush a few specific battles, but aren't dominant; their physical damage slips.  Dancers are...good, I'm not quite sure how good probably similar to Oracles in that they status one, maybe two people per turn?  Move+2 is cool, but a lot of the best setups don't really need it--like guns and dancers.

Endgame: You know, the more I think about it, elemental guns are ridiculous.  Not the best damage or anything, but close enough.  Combine with Equip Shield elemental shields for the best healing.  And Mediators have other selling points here, like they can invite Hydras and breed Tiamats.  That's going to be better than most of the human setups with the remaining legal classes.  (There's a slim possibility for something like Cockatrice in Chapter 3, too).

Yeah, so...guns.  They keep pace with Earth Slash, except their range is way, way, more practical.  And Mediators can do other stuff too.


1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator

_____________________________

Now what?

Earlygame still favours classes that become irrelevant fast so can't really centralize anything.  Well...except maybe Archer.  With guns gone we should probably actually take bows seriously.

Earlygame: bows are range.  It's like a 4 WP bow, so like...24 damage, or 36 with a charge.
Midgame: 6 WP bow, and a bit of boosting equipment, so 42 damage, or 60 with a charge.
Lategame: 8 WP bow, and a bunch of boosting equipment, so 72 damage, or 96 with a charge.
Endgame: 10 WP bow, and about the same amount of boosting equipment, but higher stats, so 110 damage, or 140 with a charge.  There's also the super-Crossbow, that's like...150 damage, 180 with a charge.

Granted, these don't use Attack Up like I did for guns, which would be a 33% bonus, but Archers probably want Concentrate anyway, what with longbows having extra accuracy penalties.

And...yeah, honestly, I'll take Earth Slash.  Especially with bows not fixing Earth Slashes big weakness (can't reach enemies above you).

Anyway...Midgame is looking more and more dominant for Elemental Geomancer because Chapter 2 mage equips are just that good, but like Knight from earlygame it...just doesn't go anywhere.  Oracle is still gamebest midgame damage, of course.

Lategame the strong classes are Oracle, Dancer, Monk.

Endgame is...probably dominated by Oracle, who turns into Batman.  Excalibur Knight with Yin Yang, and boosted Brave/Faith sounds like the easy single best unit.  No other class makes particularly good use of Excalibur Knight (Monk hates the loss of PA and loss of Attack Up.  Dancer doesn't care about the speed bonus, but might hop into Knight just for the HP).

It's looking like Oracle, but let's pause and talk about some R/S/M, first.  Move+2 is still completely rocking face.  There aren't a lot of situations where you wouldn't use it.  Dancer doesn't really need it, but also gets most of the way there just from unlocking Dancer so probably gets it anyway.  They might also consider Fly, though, as it can break some fights to fly where the enemies can't reach and dance.  Oracle might get Move-MP-Up instead--it's cheaper for them--but they're certainly the only setup that gives a damn about MP healing.  Move+3 exists, and might go into some endgame setups because 6300 JP is a lot to play with (it's only like...2000 JP to unlock and grab Move+3).

Support abilities: Attack Up is starting to get pretty centralizing, although it does have competition from Concentrate for non-Monk builds.  But...there's also Defense Up as similarly very good, and if you have an Oracle on the team (which you should) then everyone gets Defense Up automatically.  Hm, that's probably fine for now.

Reaction abilities...Arrow Guard and Counter Flood are two that catch my eye now as actually quite good because they give the middle finger to enemy Archers.  Hammedo is the highest quality reaction, but a huge investment; not before endgame and not through spillover.  HP Restore is solid.

Hm, the only really centralizing one of these is Move+2.

I should also mention Monks: they've generally got game-best damage...even long-range their damage is noteworthy.  High damage is something you really want to take out bosses...but I mean, Oracles with Life Drain are still in-play so high damage is not yet the prioirty.  (And Oracle is pretty scary for damage, too).  Long range is good against standard enemies, but so is status (and long range + status is Dancer...).

Okay, so...let's narrow this down a little; what are the long-term setups that might be targetted?

Oracle Knight w/ Excalibur
Yin Yang Magic
Hammedo/whatever
Defence Up (makes more sense if you're planning to YYM more than attack)
Move-MP Up/Move+2 (I think MP probably wins here, because Haste means you can keep up with movement, and you can always Pray Faith yourself when out of range, and Knight is not a super-high MP class--in fact you might even consider Reflect Mail which gives you major MP woes.

Defencive Dancer
Defence Up
Move HP-Up
P-Bag
etc

(Could be a variety of classes; Monk for Revive, Oracle for the ability to whip out damage via sticks and Life Drain, Knight or Geomancer for equipment--notably the more HP you have the better regen and Move HP-Up become so Knight and Geo are quite solid here).

Monk
Yin Yang Magic
Hammedo/whatever
Attack Up
Move+2

You know, Yin Yang Magic is considered one of Monks' best secondary options under normal circumstances.  It's really the obvious secondary here.  I mean, what are the other options?  Elemental?  Steal Heart?  I mean, barring like...Equip Armor P-Bag Dance Monk, which is a totally different style of setup.

There is one other decent option, though:

Monk
Sing
(reaction, Attack Up, Move+2)

Notably, Battle Song is pretty good on a team with a bunch of Monks.  The big downside, of course, is that just the act of unlocking Bard provides a lot of bad PA growth.

Another setup:

Mime

In...a format where Dance and Sing aren't jokes, where the best movement ability is Move+2, where there aren't any great reaction abilities that you'd be missing out on, Mime is...worth a look.  They tend to be solid with Monk abilities too.  Still have the worst HP in the game, the worst movement (when everyone else has Move+2), no reaction ability, and a lower PA mult than Monk before we consider equipment.

So...hmm, I don't have any major conclusions from the above analysis, other than Move+2 doesn't seem opressively centralizing, when YYM and Dance both go for something else, and it's wasted on a Mime.  Hmm...what's the best mook-clearing?  I'm...inclined to say Dance right now; Punch Art just gets thwarted by some maps, YYM is really good, but doesn't have the same range and range can just break some fights.  What's the best boss smashing?  Life Drain.  Not especially close.

The one weird thing is how much the metagame is generally tipped towards physical, which means Dance is in some ways going to be an atypical setup, because it means female, and Yin-Yang is in some ways going to be an atypical setup, because it means high faith.

That said, towards the lategame/endgame, every unit that doesn't have terrible faith should know Life Drain; it's an inexpensive 350 JP--no reason not to get it with everyone--and it crushes some fights that...none of the remaining classes handle particularly well (like Dyceamelk, which nobody else can really reach on his high platform).  And in general, no matter what your class, a dip into Yin Yang for something cheap like Paralyze or Silence Song will up your versatility a lot.  What secondaries pre Dance-Sing would you take over this?  Punch Art is ok, but Punch Art costs a lot of JP, and if you're sinking a lot of JP into PA, why aren't you a dedicated Monk?  (I guess there's an argument for Punch Art Archer because of bows).  Elemental is ok, but the damage is poor outside of Geo, so it's mostly status, where YYM will do better.  Steal Heart is worse than YYM due to being singletarget, and having poor accuracy.

So...it seems like there's a bit of a Phoenix-Down-lite scenario here, where everyone, regardless of tech path, probably has YYM secondary for a lot of the game, because it's cheap and effective regardless of stats.  That sounds OP!  Note that this hasn't been an issue until recently, what with Talk Skill providing an alternative (and a tempting alternative at that--one where you can run like...20 faith which is more attractive to the generally physical metagame).

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle

_____________________________

So...support abilities; Attack Up is becoming kind-of a big deal.  Well...it's a big deal for Monk, anyway.  Other classes would probably settle for Concentrate.  Dancer naturally gravitates to Equip Armor given Defence Up is off the table.

In the absense of Oracle, the boss-smash role now falls on Monk.  Or...Geomancer is also solid for the run-up-and-smash.  Or, specifically for zodiacs and not human bosses, Speed Break Archers might be worth a look.  Particularly against all the bosses where bows have much more range than Punch Art (Zalera, Altima).  That...yeah, sounds more effective than killing Zalera with bow damage; 10 hits to kill either way, but you start doubleturning before he's speed-dead.  On the other hand, he has support, so dropping his HP to 0 means his support can't hit you anymore so...ehhh.  Probably worth-it against Altima, though.  Adramelk...hmm...actually screw speed break against him: block petrify and Magic Break him twice.  That I'm pretty sure is more effective than a damage blitz.  Hashmallum...if you can catch him charging, Monk damage will be fantastic, but Monks can't wear Thief Hats so that's actually non-trivial if he doesn't pull out Meteor.  Decent Magic Break candidate, though: Magic Break + Black Costume; now he's got like...only Slow and physical attacks.

Even against someone like Rofel, who is more of the "get lots of damage and win"...there's now a good argument for Weapon Break Rofel, and Dance to nuke his support.

Wow, suddenly Knight is relevant and...while not quite centralizing (it's just a good alternative) it does make a class seem non-centralizing.  How the hell did that happen?

Well boss smashing has a bit of a meta to it, what about mook-smashing?  Dancer.  Seriously, Dancer.  Holy crap nothing is close to Dancer mook-smash right now.

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer

_____________________________

So...Dancer going suddenly breaks things in several ways--like everyone wants Move+2, there aren't really any setups now that care about Move-HP-Up.  But the big one to me is that...Punch Art is basically the only skillset.  Yes, other skillsets are passable, maybe even have strong niche moments like Elemental in Chapter 2 or Battle Skill against bosses.  But Punch Art is pretty much it for general purpose bring this into any fight skills.  I guess Sing is kinda cool too, but the main reason to use Sing is excellent PA buffs for Punch Art.


1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk

_____________________________

With Monk gone, suddenly I need damage numbers for Elemental, because this might become very relevant.

Midgame: 6ish PA, 5ish MA, use +2 PA, +3 MA equips.  40 damage
Lategame: 7ish PA, 5ish MA, use +3 PA, +3 MA equips.  48 damage
Endgame: 10ish PA, 7ish MA, use uhh...+2 PA, +7 MA equips.  98 damage

So...consistently less than uncharged longbow shots with Concentrate from a character wearing high-HP speed boosting gear instead of like...Wizard Robe Twist Headband in Chapter 4.  Not that Archer is completely dominant here--Elemental can status and multitarget, and geos get a damn good melee attack.  Geo melees don't completely leave other classes in the dust, though--Knight is...worse, overall, but better at some points in the game like Chapter 1 and...actually I'm not sure about Chapter 4; they're competitive in Chapter 4 anyway.  Actually, they're competitive in Chapter 2, too--not enough PA boosting for Geos to really get an advantage.

Skillsets...Elemental, Charge, Sing, and Battle Skill all have serious applications, with...I guess Sing being the strongest?  A Cheer Song Archer Squad certainly sounds nasty.

Supports...with Monk gone, Attack Up vs Concentrate feels less one-sided, because no one set exclusively favours one or the other; might switch depending on the fight.

Reaction abilities...Arrow Guard and Counter Flood; they're both good.

Movement: Move+2.  Such a big deal when your only available classes are like...Knight and Geomancer.  Dominant in the midgame and lategame, with Move+3 providing some competition in the endgame.  It's not like you're missing out on skills by bee-lining to Move+2 either; most Knight/Archer/Geo skills are fairly inexpensive; the only thing you might miss out on is bee-lineing to Bard.

Anything else Thief does?  Hmm...well...Poach is fairly useless for these classes due to the lack of Invitation, but you can and probably do attempt to steal Meliadoul's Chantage (one female is not a big reduction of damage early on, especially when longbows and elemental are often going to be the damage of choice).  And...for all that on paper Steal is the least standout of these skillsets, Steal Heart is probably going to spend quite a bit of time in the secondary slot.  It adds more variety to Archers than Elemental, and except in a small number of fights it outclasses Battle Skill on Archer.  On Geomancers, in the fights before their physical becomes good, it fits their game-plan better than Charge.  No reason not to learn it, either; it doesn't cost a lot of JP.

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief

_____________________________

So, what now?

Earlygame: Knight and Archer fill different roles.

Midgame: Archer and Geomancer both have powerful ranged attacks.  Melee attacks kind-of suck (dealing not much more than the ranged attacks).  Concentrate is gettable; Attack Up is...just out of reach JP-wise (and that's even assuming you hop into Geo and don't learn a single elemental).

Lategame: Archer damage continues to improve; Geomancer range stays stagnant, but melee spikes way up to like...110 before Attack Up, 140 after Attack Up.  Hm, right, swords are still kinda bad.  Bows don't match that on their own, but bow+Charge ends up in a similar ballpark.  (To be fair, Geos can use charge too).  The first Ice Healing comes online, with Ice Bow into Ice Shield.  At the same time, Bard: it's a thing.  Cheer Song is...really good at this point in the game, actually (more or less speed+1 to entire party as it goes off twice a turn, which...you'll gain back the turn you spent on it fairly quickly, and that's assuming you could have spent that turn on something more productive).  As an added bonus, speed-based weapons are kind-of awesome right now.  Harp Bard deals like...78 damage (parasitic).  Harp Bard with Charge+4 deals like...130 damage (parasitic).  BattleSkill Archer is kicking around somewhere, while the game obliges by providing zero fights where Battle Skill is worth using.

Endgame: Ice Healing goes into overdrive, with both Knight and Geo having high damage ice physicals, and nearly every class having access to shields (Bard only with Equip Shield, Mime...lol Mime).  Harp Bard damage doesn't change at all--still 78, and Charge+4 to 130 or so; you could mix in Attack Up I guess.  Geo physicals are oh...210 with Rune Blade before Attack Up and assuming Thief Hat.  (238 with Twist Headband instead of Thief).  Black Robe Ice Brand Knights are 221 (plus randocast Ice 2 damage) but they don't get Thief Hat.  Alternatively, Excalibur deals 210; 231 with a bit of brave boosting.  All of these numbers are without Attack Up.

Ice Healing, if it's the path of choice, has some interesting consequences.  Like...it increases the value of Concentrate to avoid dodging the healing.  It also makes Arrow Guard the obvious choice over Counter Flood, because it doesn't stop Ice Healing (and because Elemental only deals non-garbage damage if you're using Rune Blade Ageis Shield).  It also raises the value of Sing--partially because Sing takes away your dodge, but also because if you can keep a party alive while Singing Cheer Song for five turns, then you just...win.

And then there's Move+3.  It's...well, it's gone from "usually not worth it--you can get something almost as good" to pretty much the only movement ability.  (Well...no, Jump+1 is worth using, it's just...Archer has better skills so you won't usually get it until mid-lategame).  I can't really picture a credible endgame setup that doesn't benefit a lot from Move+3.  Bard stat growth be damned; we're talking about +3 movement for classes that care a lot about positioning.  The counterargument would be the "calc effect"--that you need to be temporarily weak to grind for it, which well...I haven't put a lot of thought into how unlocking Bard works now (propositions?  Can you use the class only until you've completed the JP requirements and not in difficult fights?) but Bard itself is fine--look at Charge Harp in lategame--it has a legitimate claim at being the best setup.

Wow, we seem to be careening towards Bard being the class to ban.  Hm, is there no counterargument to this--no argument that maybe you shouldn't go Bard?

Actually...there kind of is.  While Cheer Song pays for itself reasonably quickly, early turns are just worth more than later turns, because you can die, enemies can die.  Instead of sitting around singing, why don't you blitz the enemy with your choice of Attack Up/Concentrate and Longbows?  Or, in the case of some zodiacs, blitz them with Battle Skill?  While boosting your speed improves your turn ratio, killing enemies also increases your turn ratio, because dead enemies get fewer turns.  And blitzing has a lot of heavy JP requirements.  You want to be able to switch everyone to Counter Flood Elemental focused Geomancers against physical walls like Elmdor and Rofel.  If you're going to battle skill blitz a boss, you need everyone to learn the relevant break (as Battle Skill is bad if not stacked).  You want Attack Up and Concentrate and Arrow Guard and Speed Save (switching depending on the fight).  You want all the relevant Charges.  This adds up to almost the 6300 JP alotment.  (Relevant charges is 1000 JP or so; relevant Battle Skills is 500-1000 JP depending on if you put any value into Weapon Break; relevant Elementals is probably also 500-1000 JP or so; Support abilities is another 1000ish JP; Reaction abilities...the full suite is 1500 JP).  So...4500-5500 JP if you want to be able to switch your party to laser-focus down each fight.  Going Bard, getting a few songs and Move+3 is like...3000 JP.  You would need to cut corners for Move+3 if you wanted to keep an adaptable team.  It's still a tempting option, being freaking Move+3, but not mandatory, especially when Archer strategy is often "shoot, take one step back to manipulate AI into taking one step forward, and repeat".

So, ok, if it's not Bard, then which class?  Probably Archer.  Charge is just the "slap this on everything" skillset--Geos and Bards use it; Knight probably prefers Geomancy, but will sometimes consider Charge if, say, the plan is "smash with Excalibur".  Battle Skill, when it gets used, obviously leans on the Archer class giving it range and accuracy.  The best plan for smashing mooks is honestly probably bows at most points--better ranged damage than Elemental by a good margin.  Arrow Guard is a huge swing in some fights--I can't really imagine not learning it.  While you'll switch between Concentrate and Attack Up depending on the fight, Concentrate will probably be favoured in most fights just because everyone's using Charge (and this goes back to something Elfboy wrote years ago--charged damage moves + inaccuracy is a bad combination, because you can't predict how many attacks you need to lock on to a high priority target to make sure they'll end up dead.  Like...on a Wizard SCC, if someone has a 25% dodge mantle, do you hit them with two spells?  Three?  Four?).

To be honest, a lot of stuff feels centralizing to a degree with this few classes.  Like...I can't imagine not learning Attack Up for, say, Velius.  But the obvious correct Velius setup is longbows with Attack Up.  Which class gets the credit--Geo or Archer?  Or, for instance, let's say the best way to beat Wiegraf is Geomancer (for the Chameleon Robe) with Equip Crossbow (to avoid counters and deal more than Elemental, particularly with Charge) oh and Speed Save as it's the most relevant reaction.  Again, which class gets credit?  Geo class, with three Archer abilities....

We're getting to the point that this is around SCC difficulty, and just thinking about how I would tackle it...well it's story time.  On the Geomancer SCC I mostly ditched the Ice Brand Ice Shield setup in favour of higher Elemental damage and counter-flood (with the exception of a small number of endurance fights).  Sniping enemies from a distance more effectively, and having a reaction ability that deals with those damn enemy Archers just made things easier than having the option to use my turn for healing.  Similarly, I think my priorities are going to be Arrow Guard, Counter Flood, Concentrate, Attack Up, and enough Charges and Elementals to be functional depending on what the map calls for.  And I think I'd be using mostly bows over Elemental due to higher damage, but hey: there's bosses with Arrow Guard and levels like Yardow where three enemies tend to line up in a perfect Elemental formation.  But overall I suspect Bow Damage is correct in 70% of fights, Elemental damage is correct in 20% of fights, 5% want melee blitz, and 5% want Battle Skill Blitz (using bows).  Unlocking Bard would...not be my priority, and if I did it would maybe be one or two characters--not the entire party (For all that I haven't worked out the exact details of how unlocking will work; but my gut instinct is that it's both a short term power drop, and a long stretch where you're falling behind the party due to 1500 unspendable JP in the unlock process).  I wouldn't necessarily use Bard in the "obvious" way of buff->kill, either.  I'd be more inclined to blitz first, and then Life Song after half the enemy team is dead and I want to keep a couple of teammates from dropping.

Yeah, everything is being used now, basically every runthrough.  But...if I had to pick one class that things seem to revolve around more heavily, it would be Archer.


1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief
16. Archer

_____________________________

And with Archer gone, the next to go becomes mind-numbingly obvious.

Your support ability is Attack Up.  Period.  Your reaction ability is Counter Flood.  Err...fairly often.  (Well...you might occasionally use MA-save, and might use Weapon Guard initially because you can pick it up for free, and will probably sub in one of these if you're ice healing, but CF is just so good in this field).  Your secondary is Elemental.  Even if you go for a Sing+Ice Healing combo, you will be in the Geomancer class.  If you decide to Battle Skill...you might think about using Bard over Geomancer because of their 3 range...but they have so many downsides, like awful HP, worse movement, no shields.  Bard is...still worth considering in these situations, though, because you don't have to clump up to battle skill.  And...honestly if you're Battle Skilling you don't need attack up, so you could invest in Equip Armor or Equip Shield.

But Move+3 also jumps up a lot in how centralizing it is.  Notably, with Archer, you didn't need Move+3 to blitz--if you want to have four people attack Velius, you just shoot him with four arrows (and happily spread out to avoid AoE).  With melee classes, if you want everyone to run in and smash...you kinda need the movement.  Without it, just...chances are you will only hit from two or three sides, reducing party damage.

Well...but it's not like there are no range attacks; there's still elemental, and still Harps.  Can range blitz surface as a viable alternative to Attack Up?  Probably not--let me cover harps first.  The idea of range blitz is that the enemies run forward to the point that they'll be able to run up and attack you next turn, and then you take one step back, so the enemy AI repeats the same algorithm and takes one step forward.  If the enemy is 3 movement, they stop at 4 range.  If the enemy is 4 movement, they stop at 5 range.  Harps have 3 range--which is damn near useless, to be honest.  So...it's really just Elemental that carries the range-blitz torch.  And Elemental...has times when it's competitive damage, and times when it's...just weak.

On the other hand, melee blitz is a thing.  It's the way people generally play Move+2 Concentrate Ninjas.  But what it reminds me of most is tank heavy strategies in Advance Wars.  Basically, you keep your melee units away from the enemy...away from the enemy...away from the enemy, and then all of the sudden you smell blood, move them all into one area at once, and kill everything (hopefully still out of range of the other enemy clumps).  Same idea with Zergling counterattacks in Starcraft.  In turn based games like Advance Wars and FFT, though, it only works well if your threat range is higher than the enemy.

Another thing to note, I didn't go into a lot of detail on this in the Archer vs Bard discussion, but one reason Cheer Song isn't the greatest strategy when Archer was active is that you probably have a few units with Charge, and they probably don't want their speed randomly scrambled--means they can't keep in time with the enemies and hit them with a big Charge.  That's no longer really the case--and in fact, in the absence of Move+3, doubleturns are another good way to do a melee blitz.  (The important part is "you move in, and the enemy dies" instead of "you close the distance, hurt the front row which you can only reach with one unit, and then they surround you and hurt you back more").

The important question, though, is what's better.  In lategame (chapter 3) where Elemental is kinda sad, is it better to Cheer Song and give your party +1 speed on average...or is it better to just hit something with Elemental?  (Because you're almost always in range to elemental something).  Well...let's calculate.

Five elementals will generally take down a target.
Five people using Cheer Song will get you...well...actually...probably only 0.5 per Cheer Song because they're going to make each other too fast.  So...6 or 7 speed goes up to 8.5-9.5; so around a 40% increase.  With high power attacks you worry about this less, because you probably kill two enemies a turn: 6 enemies->4 enemies->2 enemies; a 50% turn advantage increase at first, 100% next, and then you win.  But when you only kill one enemy a round?  Suddenly it's 6 enemies->5 enemies->4 enemies->3 enemies->2 enemies->1 enemies.  Suddenly your first three turn increases are 20%, 25%, 33%, and the 40% increase is...looking quite sexy.

So...it looks something like...

Earlygame: Knight!!!

Midgame: Elemental!!! Probably with Weapon Guard because it's basically free and lets you pursue other slots in Geo.

Lategame: Cheer Song!  Geo's probably the class you want to be in right now, but with harps at by far their peak Bard's kinda cool too; drain harp!

Endgame: Melee Blitz, which leans on Attack Up and Move+3, with...Move+3 being the more important of the two.  (Compare "Attack Up + Germinas Boots" to "Move+3 + Bracer"--and I've certainly heard Germinas Boots called "mandatory" on, say, the Knight SCC.  If M+3 means four people can melee blitz instead of two then it does double damage output--better than 33% increase.  Also, if you plan to Battle Skill blitz, then Move+3 and harps make it way, way more practical).

Well...I guess there is an argument for endgame should be played as range blitz, because Rune Blade makes Elemental damage good again.  But...Attack Up doesn't help pure-Elemental strategies, and Move+3 does, even if range strategies don't need movement as badly.

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief
16. Archer
17. Bard

_____________________________

Well then.

Earlygame: Knight

Midgame: Geomancer elemental is hax.

Lategame: Geomancer equips are hax; stupid power sleeve.  Also Attack Up is hax.

Endgame: Attack Up is still hax, and so is Thief Hat.  Excalibur is more hax, but there's only one.


1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief
16. Archer
17. Bard
18. Geomancer

_____________________________

Yeah, you thought that last one was bad?

Earlygame: Knight dominates
Midgame: Knight dominates
Lategame: Knight dominates (only due to lack of competition, because Knight in chapter 3 is claw-your-eyes-out-awful!)
Endgame: Knight probably dominates.  Mime struggles because it can't wear shields.

Nevermind the issues of "I can't be bothered spending a bunch of time training in classes I'm not allowed to use".  Let's say I had five characters who went straight Knight, and two more who got Mime unlocked.  Would I field the Mimes?  Characters with 1/2 the HP (not an exaggeration), no shield evade, no weapon guard, and no way for me to heal them?  In a party that tends to win fights slowly?  Characters who deal oh...33% less damage with their mimed Ice Brands due to a combination of getting job level 8 in terrible PA growth classes like Squire and Chemist, and lacking equipment like Black Robe?  Which, mind you, is still better than the 50% less they deal with their fists....

Which...actually...isn't that bad.  If Mime gets in position to hit an enemy who doesn't move before the Knights do, they have like...triple the melee damage of an individual Knight (all with 100% accuracy).  Hopefully this enemy doesn't have Counter, but yeah.  And on paper, triple the damage for half the durability is a trade I would take.  And...worst case scenario you can always park the mime anywhere beside a damaged teammate; they'll mimic an ice-hit.  The problem is just how much it...doesn't fit the playstyle.  Take an SCC that wins very slowly.  Toss them a party member with zero durability that they can't heal.  You're going to get a crystalization reset half the time you try it.

Although...maybe I'm thinking about this the wrong way around.  What about one Excalibur Knight, four Mimes?  You've now got a fast, mobile, accurate, damaging party.  I mean, frailer than Ninjas.  You wouldn't even consider this when Geo was still an option (Geo having Thief Hat and 4 move, which counter the fast, mobile part).

Well...ok, let's break this down:

Against Zodiac bosses: Some are made to be blitzed (Hashmallum, Velius) some are tanky (Zalera, Adramelk, Altima).  The tanky ones are just going to favour Ice Healing.  The blitzing ones...tend to have an additinal stipulation that speed is ultra-important to survivability because it changes whether you can be charged on.  Movement is also big to hit bosses mid-charge.  I would say this category leans Knight, though--more tank bosses, and Concentrate doesn't add much.

Against human assassinations: Heavily Mime--especially with a lot of them in lategame being Shrine Knights that literally can't hurt Mimes.  And Elmdor...actually wait, Eldmor deals...*looks up stat topic*...160 damage; ok, Mimes aren't OHKOed--really damn close, but not OHKOed, and yeah they get through his shield and get multiple chances.  Balk 1/2 are the big exceptions, in this category, where shields are just the hotness.  And there's certainly some bosses with Counter (although not that many in Chapter 4).  But overall these fights favours heavy-Mime compositions.

Against mooks...well...setting asside Ice Healing for a moment, there's a funny little setup I've seen advocated for the Knight SCC against mooks by a small minority: which is to say screw ice healing: Crystal Shield, Feather Mantle, Weapon Guard, Reflect Mail, mooks now can't hurt you.  (We're talking 70% dodge rate to physical, reflect and low faith against magical, more than doubble Mime HP).  Now it's not just double the damage vs double the HP, there's also 1/3 the damage taken.  Yeah, you have no movement, but you can just let the enemies walk up to you and attack you, and then hit them back.  Granted, a lot of players do dismiss this as less effective than ice healing, but it's an easier comparison to Mime parties--and frankly it...sounds better on-paper.  But what about fights with mooks who have unblockable damage (like the church exterior, with gun-wielding Mediators and Summoners and Geomancers in high positions)?  Surely the hardcore evade plan is weak there...?  Yes it is, but...To be honest, I'm definitely not sold on Mimes in that specific map either--a bunch of game-worst HP units getting shot up from a high ground that they can't easily access; honestly what you want there is Ice Healing so that you can survive the approach.  There's probably some deep dungeon fights with evasion ignoring too, but my first thought there is like...Red Chocobos, and no, you don't want to be fighting Red Chocobos with gameworst HP, 4 move, no range, and no healing.  Most other monster skills are dodgeable.  I mean, Tiamat isn't, but the way to beat those is Flame Shield Rubber Shoes.  ...Hmm, well there's Cockatoris--but I think you're more worried about their dodgeable stuff (which rips Mimes to shreds).  Their undodgeable Feather Bomb is more of a finisher.  And...oh god, I just remembered that monsters all have counter--yeah, nevermind, Mime is terrible against all of them as it deals lots of light hits, each of which get countered.  So...yes, mooks would seem to favour Knights.

Good hustle Mime--you actually made me pause and think, you proved to me that there's a decent number of fights where a heavy Mime composition would be ideal.  But...5 Knights, 0 Mimes is still the better setup for...more than half of the endgame fights.

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief
16. Archer
17. Bard
18. Geomancer
19. Knight

_____________________________

Mime?  Mime Mime!  Mime Mime Mime Mime...Mime Mime?  Miiiiiiiime.

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Mediator
12. Oracle
13. Dancer
14. Monk
15. Thief
16. Archer
17. Bard
18. Geomancer
19. Knight
20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 22, 2011, 04:04:20 AM
Quote
And with Archer gone, the next to go becomes mind-numbingly obvious.

I agree, but somehow we came up with a different #17.

I'll be honest with you: with those last four remaining classes I would basically play it as a Geomancer SCC. A 1900 JP investment Move+3 is barely a blip on the radar.

I'm also not especially convinced by the arguments that took out Mediator, Dancer, and Thief as early as they did. Perhaps Archer too; Concentrate is cool, but it feels in the same general ballpark as Attack Up for overall worth and Geomancer pulls ahead in other aspects, especially after Monk is removed (see the SCCs: ice healing off decent move/speed and a good mix of melee and range). In general I kinda feel the analyses don't really acknowledge that melee sometimes has a place above ranged and the fact that you focused on comparing bows/guns vs. Elemental and then basically ignoring that one of those setups can go in and melee things for extra damage seemed to be missing the mark to me.

I haven't thought about it nearly as in depth as you, but for me, the bottom 10 should look closer to:

11. Oracle (overcentralised boss-killer with an answer for mooks too)
12. Monk (I'm too used to going "eh whatever" at Monks but with that near-monopoly on healing/revival they start to look good. Not bad otherwise)
13. Geomancer (overcentralised damage/healing at this point)
14-16. Mediator/Archer/Dancer (at this point things get hazy, but these three feel like they'd go before...)
17. Thief (eh sure Move+2)
18. Knight (last remnant of damage and durability)
19. Bard (all that JP spent climbing through a DEAD magic tree now)
20. Mime (lulz)

Pretty much agree with the top 10 on the other hand.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 22, 2011, 10:21:41 AM
Hmm...my gut instinct is that in-battle versatility isn't as important as between-battle versatility.  Like...to make a Magic the Gathering comparison, Shatter gets only slightly less tournament play than Disenchant, even though one of those says "destroy target artifact" and the other says "destroy target artifact or enchantment".

Similarly in FFT, if the best way to smash a fight is with range, then you optimize your range damage.  If the best way to tackle the next fight is melee, then you class switch and optimize your melee.

And notably Geomancer is not Monk: you can't optimize both.  An Ice Brand Ice Shield PA boosted Geomancer deals like...50 damage with elemental; half of optimum.

I can get behind 11 Oracle, 12 Monk.  Those were decisions I struggled with.  13 Geomancer just seems crazy, though.  Elemental Gun healing is miles better than Ice Brand Healing at endgame.  Inviting a Hydra or Cockatoris is more centralizing for damage than Geo.  And back to healing, even bard has some healing advantages over Geo, like you don't need to lock in two, sometimes three (Rubber Shoes) pieces of equipment.

Geo over Dancer I lean against, but I wouldn't mind more input on it from people who've done Dancer SCCs.  My instincts tell me that Nameless Dance is just brutally unfair in 50% of fights, and combining that with the specialization stuff I mentioned above, I'm inclined to put Dance moderately high.  Not like...Life Drain high because Dance is a big investment, but if we're doing Oracle 11, Monk 12, Mediator 13, say, then Dance is what I'd call the last "serious skillset".  In that...what's your secondary?  If you didn't answer Dance then your secondary sucks; just FYI.  ...Seems kinda centralizing.

Archer above Thief I can get behind.  In fact, as I was working through the Geo/Bard/Archer/Knight group, realizing how much it focused on range tactics and usually not melee, I started to feel like I probably made a mistake putting Thief over Archer.

Geo above Archer I could get behind.  It was my first instinct just...all the stars were aligned behind Archer for the abilities left.  Bows get their choice of Attack Up or Concentrate.  Bows get charge.  Bows get Battle Skill in the few fights where it's relevant.  One of the few half-decent skillsets remaining boosts speed as what it does.  And...even Archer abilities seemed to have stars aligned behind them.  With Charge being highly relevant, Concentrate is a lot more valuable than it normally would be.  Arrow Guard may or may not be better than Counter Flood in the abstract, but a number of factors push it ahead here.  Even with all those advantages, yeah, there's a case for Geo over Archer.  Better in the midgame.  If you favor Ice Healing over pure range focused strategies, better in the endgame.  Done.

Bard...is just a headache to place.  I'm not sure how to handle the dead magic tree thing other than the obvious "that's 1400 JP you spend on nothing" and "have some bad stat growth".  If it's just those two, however, Bard is certainly worth-it.  Sing is...almost a real skillset.  Not really, but almost.  Can provide healing.  If you can't safely move in to range, it has the accumulate stamp of "this is something to do when out-of-range", except unlike accumulate it's powerful enough to be better than waiting.  And Move+3 is a huge upgrade over "no movement".

Still a pain to place; I'm ok with placing Geo over Bard; again, decision I wrestled with.  Knight over Bard...if it came down to those two for me...well honestly Bloody Strings matches Knight damage in the lategame.  Endgame...everyone should have Move+3, and I can still see sometimes using the Bard class over Knight.  Balk (Equip Shield lets you use Thief Hat with that Flame Shield) various zodiacs (Black Costume, and if you plan to Battle Skill a zodiac then Harps are the way to go).  I think you spend most of the time in Chapter 4 as Ice Knights, granted, but probably play very different from a Knight SCC (In that Sing would be your most common action, ice healing used only to not die before you're 13 speed...which takes, what, two turns?  One with Mimes?)  It's a weird symbiotic relationship, where Bard/Knight is a lot better in endgame than either class is on its own.  My feeling is that Bard brings more to the table at endgame, and certainly brings more to the table at lategame (because lol Chapter 3 Knights).

There's still the issue of Knight has the first two game sections to itself, but I'm not inclined to weigh that too heavily.  If the two last classes left were Knight and Samurai, I hope I'd pick Samurai as the more centralizing class, even though I'd totally use the Knight class for their sweet, sweet Rune Blades and Shields and HP.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 22, 2011, 06:50:15 PM
Quote
My instincts tell me that Nameless Dance is just brutally unfair in 50% of fights

Well. Four uses of it are anyway. Of course, it takes a fair bit of effort to unlock Dancer on four people. Also, females are generally looking worse than males now with all the MA-based skillsets stripped out: males are about 20% better at being attack-Geomancers and Knights, and about 10% better at being Thieves and Archers. Elemental is roughly a wash. I could still very easily see Dancers as #14 mind.

Quote
Elemental Gun healing is miles better than Ice Brand Healing at endgame

Okay, elemental gun antihype time! There are two elemental guns available outside rare randoms and the DD, and both of those come at a significant opportunity cost. Getting the colliery takes four totally unnecessary battles. Stealing from Balk involves sinking JP into an otherwise-useless skill and dragging out a potentially challenging battle. There's more if you're willing to locate a rare random but that's even later, and annoying/random to locate. An efficient playthrough is going to ignore most, if not all of these elemental guns. To make matters even worse for them, they are now literally the only reason to not be running 40 faith, and they're not an especially compelling one given their lateness and accession issues.

The classes and abilities that let you steamroll the game without stopping to do extra time investments will always rank as more centralising. I'd be more moved by arguments that one of Thief/Mediator needs to go because they're unlocking the Chantage, but between the effort involved, the fact that the metagame is biasing male, and the fact that we already know that the Geomancer SCC gets through the game with relative ease even -without- its current support from Dance and Move+2, I see little reason to hype this until we're down to classes whose performance is far more poor. Note that after my proposed #12, Geomancer is very clearly the last remaining class considered to have an easy SCC (top ten certainly).

Quote
And notably Geomancer is not Monk: you can't optimize both.  An Ice Brand Ice Shield PA boosted Geomancer deals like...50 damage with elemental; half of optimum.

Well obviously if you are optimising both you wouldn't use Ice Brand! Rune Blade/Aegis Shield/[whatever works for PA/MA/speed as needed] is the standard if you decide you don't care about healing, since Rune Blade even outperforms on physical damage (or is at worst equal). And in general, I think that's the larger decision, from having played that SCC: you don't think about optimising melee vs. range, you think about needing healing vs. needing damage. For melee against ranged, that really is more of an in-battle thing thing. In general, if you can kill an enemy with higher damage, you'll use the physicals, but if you're out of range (e.g. turn 1), can get multiple people with Elemental, or want the status over an out-of-reach kill, you'll go for the ranged option. Being able to do both is a big deal. It's also why Oracle SCC is fairly easy once it gets rolling. It's why Ninja is the easiest physical SCC (of course their melee is the best, but Throw is good too). It's a big part of why Archer and Squire are much harder.

EDIT: Of course you use Ice Brand over Rune Blade in the 7-battle stretch where only one exists, but then you aren't losing out on a weapon slot dedicated to Elemental damage anyway.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 26, 2011, 02:20:26 PM
Reasonable points about the elemental guns.  Mostly, I wanted a checkpoint for "lategame stuff" like poaching, like brave/faith modification, like breeding Tiamats, like Bracer (I deliberately put my "lategame" cutoff before Yardow to avoid "can you afford Bracer?" headachess), like Mime, like Knight Swords.

Arguably, maybe I need a fifth "in-between" checkpoint between "lategame" and "endgame".  A "chapter 4 without the bullshit" checkpoint, to go along with the "chapter 4 with the bullshit" checkpoint.

But regardless, I feel that once you're at the level-of-effort needed to have 6300 JP (unlocking Mime), Elemental Guns are pretty reasonable.

On Geo being the easiest SCC left...well first of all part of that is that Geo has a little of everything: Geo can hit Velius physically while he's charging, and then turn around and hit Rofel with magic-based Elemental.  A class that specializes in one thing grows in value compared to their SCC.  (Wizard, for instance, is the highest damage in the game, but a lousy SCC).  So I'm not inclined to just take SCC numbers at face value.

Second, I sort-of have a counterpoint to them being the easiest remaining SCC.  I'm pretty sure my gamesharked-to-level-1 Mediator SCC had fewer resets than my normal-levelled Geo SCC.  And sure, I grinded for half an hour to get Elemental Guns once the random opened up (because Speed 6 Mediators are too slow to persuade-lock Altima), but even before then there were noteworthy advantages.  Level 15-16 Geomancers struggle with both Wiegraf and Velius (because they don't have 7 innate speed).  Mediators smash those fights just fine at the lower speed.  Geos struggle with Altima in spite of healing.  I haven't done the persuade lock, but elemental gun mediators completely smash Altima.  (And then we factor in that Mediators don't have RSM in the SCC and gain it here, and gain a lot more from secondaries than Geo).  So...there's that.

On Nameless Dance being good when there's four of them...Nameless Dance is unlike other Dances in that it has a negative feedback loop.  When you do four slow dances, the fourth one is the best, has the biggest impact.  When you do four Namelesss Dances, the first one is the best: can't un-frog, can't whiff because one target is already sleeping.  Can't poison a confused enemy.  Can't stop a poisoned enemy.  Which is to say, the average output per action of 1x Nameless Dance is actually higher than the average output per action of 4x Nameless Dance.

Other quick note about Dance: in Chapter 3 Wiznaibus is roughly 40 damage to all enemies (when Elemental is like...60 to one-two enemies).  And Wiznaibus is usually considered pretty underpowered by dance standards.

On being female...it's not a 20% damage penalty for, say, Geo physicals.  A decent amount of your damage comes from equipment.  More like 10%-15% of male damage depending on setup.  (And more like 7% for Archer...except after Charge it's more like 5%).  And as long as Thief is in play, Meliadoul's chantage is not an unreasonable goal, and Salty Rage doesn't sound too crazy (common poach off of a Dragon).  Female is a downside now, don't get me wrong, but it's a fairly mild downside.  Mostly affects you in earlygame and midgame...and...actually maybe not even midgame because you can just go to elemental if you want to be competent.

On unlocking Dancer...the thing is it's not really out-of-the-way.  You're probably getting something Move+2, and probably doing something in Geo like getting Attack Up, even if you plan to go to Archer or Mediator or whatever, which means the only part of the unlock process you probably weren't already planning on was the dead Lancer class.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on July 26, 2011, 03:55:38 PM
(Please keep arguing, I read it but I am far too unknowledgeable to input! I love this! It makes me happy! Haha.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 26, 2011, 04:46:50 PM
Personally I had more trouble with normal-levelled Mediators than normal-levelled Geos by quite a bit, including at Wiegraf/Velius (which IIRC I beat with Geo first try. Not resetting upon getting in a random means you hit 18 there pretty easy). blah blah blah personal experience but I'm pretty sure Mediator being in the bottom half for SCC ease was very much a common opinion. Maybe there was some collective trick we were missing but I'm a bit skeptical? (EDIT: Focusing on Mediator here since I'm pretty sure this is where the difference comes from.)

Point about Nameless Dance, 4 is certainly less than 4x as good as 1. My main point was only that one Nameless Dance is hardly a "battle wrecked" type thing. Big help, certainly... Dance is obviously one of the best if not the best skillset at this point. I'm just not sold on its level of centralisation.

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And Wiznaibus is usually considered pretty underpowered by dance standards.

According to whom? <_< It's probably the second best dance at that point! And yes, I never questioned Dance > Elemental.

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But regardless, I feel that once you're at the level-of-effort needed to have 6300 JP (unlocking Mime), Elemental Guns are pretty reasonable.

Well sure, elemental guns are more reasonable than Mime. Mime is pretty much auto-bottom because every other setup in the game looks and it and says "well at least I don't take THAT much trouble to unlock" (for at worst comparable results). That doesn't mean that other inefficient or difficult-to-access setups shouldn't take a penalty. It really depends what our goal is here; do we view, say, completion of the deep dungeon as a worthwhile task, or are we just trying to beat the game with a minimum of (some combination of time, effort, resets, turns etc.)? If the latter (which is generally how I feel), while I am happy to consider poaches and other rare things, I generally feel that a class that can perform comparably without them is going to be at a large advantage no matter what JP thresholds we set. (This sorta speaks to the need for soft JP caps in general... if a certain setup needs 2500 JP then obviously it scores points compared to one that takes 4000, even though both fall within the same "cap bracket" to you.)

By the way, since I'm not sure we stated this previously, what are we assuming "dead" classes look like? Obviously we don't get to use any of their skills, but I'm sorta assuming we don't get full benefit of their stats/equipment either, or we'd have Ninja still finding a use, and Wizard long after it is banned. Do we assume their mults are magically capped at 100 and they lose the benefit of any weapons more useful than knives, or something? Could matter for an in-depth analysis of where Bard ends up.

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it's not a 20% damage penalty for, say, Geo physicals

Just to be clear, that's not what I said; I said males had a 20% bonus. So I was already moving down from the full effect, though possibly not enough, yeah. (On the other hand I wasn't mentioning the ~2% HP bonus!)


Oh, I suppose I should continue the main thrust of the debate:

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A class that specializes in one thing grows in value compared to their SCC.  (Wizard, for instance, is the highest damage in the game, but a lousy SCC).

Oh, to be sure, I absolutely agree. You'll notice at no point have I claimed Geomancers needed to go in the top ten, and I haven't voiced the smallest complaint about wizard being in the top three. However, once down to the weaker set of classes, it feels like the large number of small things that make their challenge fairly easy start to shine.

I mean, let's look at the bottom ten metagame after the banning of Oracle and Monk. Geomancers have...

1. The second highest durability of any class (with significant advantages over #1 which mean you'd rarely pick it)
2. The highest raw damage against a single target for a majority of the game, before considering support abilities.
3. One of two classes that can equip swords, which enable what is probably your best form of healing. Notably better than the other.
4. Even if we opt for an elemental gun strategy, it's one of three classes that can equip shields without using up a support ability.
5. One of two classes with 4 move excluding mime (and the other one is way worse at points 1 through 4)
6. The source of what is almost certainly the game's best support ability (Concentrate surpasses it in pretty specific circumstances, such as Murond Gate/UBS4/maybe a few other battles dominated by shields, but generally, AU is ahead.)
7. The source of what is possibly the game's best reaction ability (although a few other things are in the running here).
8. Elemental, the second best skillset to set for chippy ranged damage without sacrificing a good melee, and the best if you're male.

I have a hard time looking at that list and not going "WTFban". Geomancer feels incredibly overcentralising and I have a hard time envisioning someone playing a version of "Bottom 8 classes FFT" without using it. Dancer and Mediator both feel much easier to just ignore.

Note that the above list is -incredibly- reliant on the bottom 8 being what it is. Just letting Monk back into the fray endangers or reduces the value of points #2, 3, 4, 7, and 8. Possibly even #6.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 26, 2011, 09:11:12 PM
Hmm...I'm writing from a cell phone so I'll tackle this piece by piece.  I think somewhere I have my Mediator resets recorded, which would be better than working from 7-year-old memory.

Totally remember your Mediator vs Wiegraf/Velius, though.  It happened at about 2am, and had I think 4 resets on Wiegraf where you were trying something silly like Death Sentence before you went "oh, wait, duh: shoot him and run away" (which with Sprint Shoes and Green Beret you could do at speed 9 and...yeah, it was a slaughter).

Oh, one thing to consider: if not going elemental guns, how much do you value dropping faith to 10-20?  Basically doubles your durability in some fights and, more importantly, doesn't use up a valuable RSM slot (unlike, say, MDU).

Anyway, I'll tackle the list for the moment...

1. Assuming you get half your HP from clothing...it beats Archer by 5% on HP, Thief by 10%, and Mediator by 15%.  I don't really consider the Archer/Geomancer durability gap to be too noteworthy, especially as both have shields.  (Well...between Geo/Archer robes are sometimes a big deal).
2. Singletarget damage...Not in earlygame.  Tied with Knight in midgame.  Yes in lategame.  Technically no in endgame (Mime wins, technically...).  But...also in endgame Excalibur Knight is more damage in-practice, and...pre Thief Hat, Geo and Knight are...basically tied (Twist Headband+Power Sleeve puts Geo...1 PA ahead of Knight?)
3. I'm not really sure it is better healing than Bard.  In that...if I could have gone Sing Secondary on the Geo SCC, I so would have, which would give me healing without sacrificing damage.
4. Well, there's four options for elemental gun healing (the fourth being Equip Shield Mediator).  And of the four, Geo's skillset brings the least to the table by far.  I'd probably be chilling in Mediator gradually raising my faith to 90, and as long as I'm using Talk Skill, I might as well get innate Monster Talk.  Archer would be my second choice; they don't get Robes, but 108 gems can sub, and maybe I want more Charge skills (being the only thing that boosts elemental gun damage anymore).  Knight you might use for training...wait, no you wouldn't.  Elemental guns > breaks in every situation I can think of, barring like...trying to invite a monster.
5. Yep, 4 move is there and it's cool.  But I mean...most of the power moves are still ranged.  You don't need 4 move.  And...Move+2 is super centralizing (with the difference between 5 move and 6 move being not a huge deal: you need 7 move to swing around the back of an AI Knight who cautiously positioned itself 3 panels away from you...unless he positioned himself at an angle in which case 5 will suffice).
6. I really don't agree that AU is ahead of Concentrate.  Regardless of setup, even if you're doing basically a Geo SCC, your secondary is almost certainly Charge (Dance is an exception).  And when your secondary is Charge, Concentrate becomes the obvious support, because you can Charge on someone and know that you'll finish them off and don't need to throw any extra attacks their way.  This makes concentrate more desireable than charge in most fights.  One big exception being assassination missions, where you're only going to charge attacks on one unit anyway, in which case the question becomes "does the target have 25% evade or more?"  (25% being the break-even point where Concentrate starts to outdamage Attack Up on average).  And also...being an assassination mission, you should run some calculations and see if you need luck to one-round the target.  If not, then you probably use Concentrate even if the target has worse-than-25% evade.
7. Counter Flood just is not centralizing.  If you use any setup but Geo then the damage sucks.  If you use Geo Ice Healing then you don't use CF anyway.  The more I think about it, Weapon Guard has a better claim to be centralizing than CF.  There's nothing better to spend Knigt JP on, and all of the WG toys are potentially in play (Defender, Main Gauche, Carpets, Nagnarock).  And yeah, Arrow Guard is still sexy.
8. Hmm...how would I rate the remaining skillsets assuming available JP...probably something like...
Dance > Talk Skill > Charge > Elemental > Sing > Steal > Battle Skill > lolmimejustlol
With...most of those moveable by a few spots.  But anyway, if you're training in Knight and want some range, say, well...Dance rules, Mimic Daravon is also fantastic with Threaten/Solution being decent offence/defence, Steal Heart is a fine option, and so is Elemental, and Sing would also give you something to do when out of range, although not strictly a ranged attack.  Even if you're looking for specifically ranged chipping, you don't have to get that from a skillset: bows and guns exist, as do equip gun and equip crossbow.  Which isn't to say that you wouldn't use elemental, it's just more of a "you could" than a "you must".

Which is how I feel about most of the Geo stuff.  You could do an ice healing setup, but I don't feel like you must use ice healing or your party sucks.  You could use the Geo class, but you could also use the Archer or Mediator class, and these are arguably often better.  The one place I do feel a "You Must" is Attack Up: it's not always the best option, but you absolutely want it learned for fights like Velius.

But AU does...not feel like the worst such offender.  Move+2: if you don't have it on pretty much everyone, you're doing it wrong.  Faith: unless you're planning on elemental guns you'd better Solution yourself to 20 or less Faith.  And to a degree: Nameless Dance--outside of assassination missions it's probably better than whatever action you were going to take, and any class can use it effectively as a secondary (...except Bard...and Mime but they suck).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 26, 2011, 10:03:22 PM
Ok, proposal for what "dead" classes look like.

1. You can only use the class until you have the necessary JP for an unlock you're actually getting.  So...no Ninja, no Calc, no Samurai, and unless you're actually going to Bard/Mime, no Wizard/TM/Summoner.  And so on.

2. As long as you're currently in the class, you can use skillsets, stats, and weapons from the class that aren't remotely centralizing.  So...if you're grinding to Mime in Squire, you can use Dash, Throw Stone, Heal, Accumulate.  But when grinding Wizard you can't use Wizard MA.  If Mediator gets banned in large part due to guns, then you can't equip guns in that class.


I realize that this creates some ambiguity, but I'd like to give it a shot as it feels kind-of "realistic".  I think common sense will usually work: like...Time Mage with a Rainbow Staff and Don't Move learned in Chapter 2?  Doesn't sound like it's any better than, say Knight with Steal Heart, so...I'd allow it.  Time Mage with Haste?  Yeah, no: bad, don't do that.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 26, 2011, 11:45:59 PM
On what the intended goal is (Deep Dungeon vs beating in minimal turns)

I was kind-of thinking a mixture, sort-of as a recognition that my playstyle isn't the only playstyle out there, and that balance is based on more than one playstyle.

Hmm...as an example...let's say Calc took 4000 JP to unlock instead of 1400 JP.  I'd still tend to drift in that direction as a long-term plan.  It's kind-of...where you want to end up eventually.  (Same way in LFT, eventually people tend to drift towards Non-Charge when they can't think of other ways to make their character better).

Sometimes this isn't a problem.  Like...when people drift towards something that is legitimately weak early on (like Thief) that's fine: they're sacrificing early power for late power.  The problem comes when you have something like Math or Summon that becomes dominant fast and stays dominant forever; why choose a different tech path, ever?


And I feel like this applies to non-JP tech paths too.  I tend to dismiss poaching, for example, but I think a big part of that is that there are much faster and more powerful ways to break the game.  If poaching is the only way to break the game, then suddenly most parties will adjust, if only slightly.  Probably keep a Monster Talker Inviter in the party "just in case".  Maybe have one person with Secret Hunt set most of the time (the same way you might have one person in Calc while the rest of the party is in midgame level setups).

So...going back to the group of 8, the above scenario sounds reasonable.  It's only the sign of a problem if stuff like Secret Hunt and Monster Talker are powerful early on.  Person with Secret Hunt...sucks.  But Monster Talker?  Monster Talker gets to use guns; guns with Charge.  That...is actually pretty damn good at the time.  This is where my warning sirens go off.

Just an example (there isn't much out there worth poaching for the remaining classes; the usual "Chantage 33% of the time"), but...yeah, that's roughly the kind of behavior I'm trying to capture with the "Endgame" category.  Which is to say I'm not trying to analyze, say, optimal speed runs, more sort-of modelling how people play.  (Speed runs tend to grind to something uber in Chapter 1, and then change nothing but equipment for the rest of the game, not learning any new skills.  People tend to work towards goals, and when they reach that goal they set a bigger goal.  People will say "no Deep Dungeon planned this run" and then sometimes end up doing DD anyway).

Not sure if this makes sense, just trying to put intuition into words here.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 27, 2011, 02:14:03 AM
Warning: This post is somewhat stream-of-consciousness and not necessarily made in the best order. Should e easy enough to follow anyway.

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Totally remember your Mediator vs Wiegraf/Velius, though.  It happened at about 2am, and had I think 4 resets on Wiegraf where you were trying something silly like Death Sentence before you went "oh, wait, duh: shoot him and run away" (which with Sprint Shoes and Green Beret you could do at speed 9 and...yeah, it was a slaughter).

Totally remember that, yes. Was the Velius battle a slaughter, though? I actually don't recall but I don't see why it would be. Geomancers just subject him to curbstomp since with PA+7 equips and Attack Up they hit 324 on him without charging, a 3HKO once you factor in that there's an elemental or two to finish him off if he rolled well on HP, and before factoring in zodiac (though to be fair someone will probably need Boots to get behind him? I forget).

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I don't really consider the Archer/Geomancer durability gap to be too noteworthy, especially as both have shields.

Archer doesn't have shields if using longbows, and aside from the ability to equip longbows I'm not especially sold on Archer. I guess the argument is "Equip elemental Gun, and you can get Charge + a secondary" which is... reasonable, but I'd usually call the loss of the accessory slot more important than the loss of secondary, never mind Geo's +1 move and +5% HP.

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2. Singletarget damage...Not in earlygame.  Tied with Knight in midgame.  Yes in lategame.  Technically no in endgame (Mime wins, technically...).

Just as a note, I think it's a bit weird to call Chapter 2 the midgame when the game's midpoint is quite clearly in chapter 3. But that aside... Knight beats Geomancer in damage until Level 6, at which point they're tied... and then Headgear shows up and Geomancer eithers win or is tied with Knight for all of chapter 2. Then they win chapter 3 and chapter 4. So they lose to Knight in, generously, 6 battles when both exist, and Geomancer has wins in about... 35? Yeah.

(Also uh Geo smashes Mime at raw ST damage. Attack Up? Equipment? Unless you were factoring in Mimic in some way. Regardless, lol Mime.)

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4. Well, there's four options for elemental gun healing (the fourth being Equip Shield Mediator).

Remember: it's quite unlikely you have more than 1-2 of these elemental guns. Everyone not using a gun itself is going to want Attack Up and to do something physical, so... probably be in Geomancer! Archer would have to use lolcrossbows (or non-Attack Up Mithril Guns), Mediator is again non-Attack Up Mithril Gun, Knight is just Geo minus.

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Yep, 4 move is there and it's cool.  But I mean...most of the power moves are still ranged.

Especially later on, it feels like the "power move" is Geomancer's physical to me, so I can't agree with that sentiment. I mean, before Attack Up and Charge...

Mithril Gun: 64
Level 40 Archer with Windslash/Thief/Power/Gems: 104
Level 40 Archer with Gastrifitis/Thief/Power/Bracer: 150
Level 40 Geomancer with Thief/Power/Bracer: 210
Level 40 Geomancer with Twist/Power/Bracer: 238 (+42 damage, +1 move vs. knight, for the record)

Smash. (EDIT: See below for more damage comparisons and why I think they're the crux of why Geomancer is clearly the best class remaining at this point.)

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I really don't agree that AU is ahead of Concentrate.

Yeah, very good points about Charge, there. I will point out that AU is hilariously ahead for what is probably the best non-Geomancer strategy for damage (guns... just not much respect for either type of bow). Attack Up does turn a lot of 2HKOs into OHKOs, though (and just to be clear, I mean before Charge); we aren't facing things with infinite HP, so while, say, an enemy with a Wizard Mantle may feel like a close fight between the two (1.33x vs. 1.22x), if there's a OHKO line to worry about, it may not be.

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Weapon Guard has a better claim to be centralizing than CF.

Unshockingly I disagree, I was thinking or Arrow Guard and perhaps even PA Save (since Speed Save is overpriced and can be disruptive to clocktick counting strategies) as CF's competition. Nagrarock is... what? Defender seems unlikely to be in play to me, similarly, although at least it's not a joke. Carpets... I've always loved carpet WG in principle but it's not efficient; it means your Dancer is meleeing things instead of dancing and while fun, it's not a good idea (You need to get back in Geomancer with a shield, far better physical/HP, and real reaction!). Main Gauche is a brief crutch while you're Thief picking up Move + 2 and... probably Weapon Guard's best claim to fame. But yeah, no respect there.

But yes, no reaction is centralising in the slightest, there's no obvious choice.

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The one place I do feel a "You Must" is Attack Up: it's not always the best option, but you absolutely want it learned for fights like Velius.

This is fair. For everything else, Geo isn't "you must", but it is probably the best option for... almost everything. It's virtually impossible to make a party that doesn't rely on something from Geomancer without going "okay this is clearly sub-optimum". On the other hand, could I see ignoring Dancer and Mediator entirely? Yeah, you bet. If Dancers could be male you could argue me into saying no Dance = stupid choice, but as is I don't think it's unreasonable. Mediator's tricks feel highly ignorable to me (we haven't yet reached the point where the game is hard enough to justify wasting time with, say, brave raising and poaching). The only other "You must" choice is possibly Thief, buuut hilariously Bard is actually giving it some competition. In fact, I'm going to argue Geomancer's move as more important than Move + 2! Let's see what happens when we remove Thief/Geo from the game.

Basically, there are three stages of the game: Before you get M+2, before you get M+3, and after getting M+3 (you may or may not reach all stages with each character, but you get the idea).

In stage 1, Geo has 4 move, while all other classes (excluding the unpleasant thief, which is probably the #5 carrier) has 3. As you have already alluded to, 4 move is a big deal: you can walk behind a knight with this. Remove Geo and you're -1 move. Remove thief and... no change (I'm assuming you switch to knight/etc.).

In stage 2, Geo has 4 move, while Thief is giving its +2 to other classes so they can have 5. Now, 4->5 isn't as big a deal, but it's still 1 move, and this section lasts a while.

In stage 3, Thief is no longer doing anything useful, while Geomancer still has 7 move to everyone else's 6 (except females I guess, but if you're using one it's for Dance so whatever at them being still stuck at 4).

It's really a question of how long each stage lasts. If we assume the game is split 25%/50%/25% for these stages, then it's a tie... but a tie I'll break in Geo's favour because of 3->4 being a more important boost than anyone else. I could still see arguing Move + 2 over Geomancer's movement, mind. But it's actually close enough that everything else Geo brings to the table is making for an obvious win (whereas thief is bringing... almost nothing! +1 speed sometimes and a possible grab at trinkets I suspect aren't worth the JP/time investment).

How'd I get on that tangent? Oh well.

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But AU does...not feel like the worst such offender.  Move+2: if you don't have it on pretty much everyone, you're doing it wrong.  Faith: unless you're planning on elemental guns you'd better Solution yourself to 20 or less Faith.

Hilarious fact: Lowering faith notably below 40 actually starts making the game harder again. Sure, you wall magic EVEN HARDER (it doesn't do well against 40) but very quickly guys like Velius and Adramelk start moving over to their status which makes them scarier (especially since our ability to heal status is uh... not actually existant. Black Chocobo hype?). Now, I'm sure lowering Ramza's faith in particular is useful (and if you're optimising, 40 faith isn't perfect... probably closer to 30-35), but I'm not seeing it as terribly overcentralising. Certainly feels less centralising than having a third more damage than the strongest hat-wearing non-Geomancer setup lategame (which is... Equip Sword Archer, I believe?)

That said, no. The combination of Geomancer + Attack Up is the most centralising thing in the current metagame. Want melee damage? Remove Geomancer and your best bet while still equipping a hat is Equip Sword Archer... Geomancer has 33% more damage. Want gun damage? Geomancer's Attack Up is adding 33% to that as well. Want a melee fighter with concentrate? Geomancer is ahead of everyone else by... like double. I mean Charge Goncentrate Geomancer can actually pull ITE OHKOs with some reliability, something no other setup can manage. (Obviously this setup speaks highly of Archer too, but it definitely needs both.) There's no way to ignore Geomancer without losing considerable damage in the second half of the game.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 30, 2011, 02:21:07 AM
Totally remember that, yes. Was the Velius battle a slaughter, though? I actually don't recall but I don't see why it would be. Geomancers just subject him to curbstomp since with PA+7 equips and Attack Up they hit 324 on him without charging, a 3HKO once you factor in that there's an elemental or two to finish him off if he rolled well on HP, and before factoring in zodiac (though to be fair someone will probably need Boots to get behind him? I forget).

PA+7 equips?  You could afford multiple Bracers at that point?

I know I had three or four resets on the Velius part of that fight with Geos myself.  Needed speed boosting equips because he's not fightable at 6 speed.  So...I'm calculating at best 168 damage before charging?  (Side note, I think you meant to say 324 "with charging" rather than "without charging").

I still need to look up my Mediator resets, but I think I beat Velius the first attempt.  Sprint Shoes, Green Beret, shoot 5x while charging (96x5) and then run away.  Repeat next turn.

The problem with running forward to hit Velius physically (with speed 7 Geomancers) is that if Velius doesn't die, then all those Geos are dead.  They're in perfect formation to be AoE'd by Velius (which he can instacast because you're speed 7).  Decent odds you also just got three Dark Holies dropped on you, too.  None of this is an issue when you have 8 range.  Hell, with 8 range you could even handle 7 speed fairly gracefully if you had to (shoot and wait on spot with most characters so that he can't instacast next turn).

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Archer doesn't have shields if using longbows, and aside from the ability to equip longbows I'm not especially sold on Archer. I guess the argument is "Equip elemental Gun, and you can get Charge + a secondary" which is... reasonable, but I'd usually call the loss of the accessory slot more important than the loss of secondary, never mind Geo's +1 move and +5% HP.

Hm, yeah, that's fair I guess.  Adding to that, Charge is kind-of lame at that point.  Wow, if you Charge+4 then you increase your effective WP from 22 to 26, (an 18% increase).  In exchange, you now need to successfully charge in Chapter 4 with something slower than Short Charge Meteor (C+4 has 8ctr).  And...going back to the whole "Concentrate is really good when you're using Charge because you want consistency so that you can predict if an enemy will die" argument...the inconsistency of Fire1/Fire2/Fire3 is going to lower the value of Charge, because oftentimes it will be better to just attack with your elemental gun so that you immediately know how much damage you've dealt, and then plan accordingly.

I'm still seeing Equip Shield Mediators as probably the primary way to use elemental gun healing, though; Equip Shield costs less than Equip Gun.  Talk Skill is pretty cool by that point (if you're using Angel Rings, and you probably are, then Death Sentence is the closest thing you have to Phoenix Down; notably, you can Death Sentence yourself the moment you revive from Angel Ring).

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Just as a note, I think it's a bit weird to call Chapter 2 the midgame when the game's midpoint is quite clearly in chapter 3. But that aside... Knight beats Geomancer in damage until Level 6, at which point they're tied... and then Headgear shows up and Geomancer eithers win or is tied with Knight for all of chapter 2. Then they win chapter 3 and chapter 4. So they lose to Knight in, generously, 6 battles when both exist, and Geomancer has wins in about... 35? Yeah.

35 doesn't sound right to me--there's plenty of ties/very small wins and I'm not sure quite what to do with brave-raised Excalibur (which is obviously Knight favoured, but only on one character).  I feel like it's more along the lines of: Knight and Geo are close to tied in 30 battles (sometimes favouring Knight, sometimes Geo, but usually a 1 PA gap), and Geo has a strong advantage in 15 battles (basically Chapter 3).

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(Also uh Geo smashes Mime at raw ST damage. Attack Up? Equipment? Unless you were factoring in Mimic in some way. Regardless, lol Mime.)

I was factoring in Mimic, yes.  Let's say your plan is to run up and physical-blitz Hashmallum, melee attacking with all your characters.  Mime will have more damage than any other class here.  Sure, equipment and supports will give you twice the effective PA of Mime, but if the Mime gets in four mimics plus their own physical they'll still be dealing double the damage of any other class.

Not to say that Mime is good, because Mimes are still awful.  Just...I'm skeptical about stuff that measures strictly damage over, say, 8 range.

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Remember: it's quite unlikely you have more than 1-2 of these elemental guns. Everyone not using a gun itself is going to want Attack Up and to do something physical, so... probably be in Geomancer! Archer would have to use lolcrossbows (or non-Attack Up Mithril Guns), Mediator is again non-Attack Up Mithril Gun, Knight is just Geo minus.

Ahh, you were talking about a mixed party of some elemental some regular party members.  That's fair.  The only way I've used elemental guns is "farm the random after Zalera", which gets 5x elenental guns reasonably quickly, but maybe you go stealing from Balk or whatever.

In that event...you will presumably use one Excalibur Knight because it's Excalibur.  Which leaves two slots to fill.

As for "lolcrossbows", if you have elemental guns, then you have Gastrafitis.  (Ok, that's not strictly true, but pretty close).  Gastrafitis is 71% of the damage of Rune Blade in exchange for 4 range.

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Especially later on, it feels like the "power move" is Geomancer's physical to me, so I can't agree with that sentiment. I mean, before Attack Up and Charge...

Mithril Gun: 64
Level 40 Archer with Windslash/Thief/Power/Gems: 104
Level 40 Archer with Gastrifitis/Thief/Power/Bracer: 150
Level 40 Geomancer with Thief/Power/Bracer: 210
Level 40 Geomancer with Twist/Power/Bracer: 238 (+42 damage, +1 move vs. knight, for the record)

Smash. (EDIT: See below for more damage comparisons and why I think they're the crux of why Geomancer is clearly the best class remaining at this point.)

Some notes:

*I've been assuming Archer can get Ultimus Bow; they tend to swing that on their SCC.  Hell, they can sometimes get Yoichi bows on the SCC.  And this is when they're not likely to have someone with Invitation in the party to make getting Ultimus Bows fairly easy.
*Twist Headband setups make me skeptical.  As does picking Bracer over Angel Ring.
*Umm..."(+42 damage, +1 move vs. knight, for the record)" why on earth are you equipping a Rune Blade on that Knight setup?  Ice Brand+Black Robe+Bracer deals 221 for the sword hit, and if the spell casts then another 25 damage from the spell assuming 40 faith (about double that if you're Ramza and left your faith at 70, of course).  So the damage gap is more like +12.
*(FYI Geo deals slightly more physical damage on average with the Ice Brand+Black Robe  than Rune Blade+Power Sleeve if you're actually going to wear a Bracer--at least if you haven't dropped your faith significantly below 40.  Not a big deal either way, though--the debate is healing vs elemental damage).

So...adjusting these calculations for Angel Ring etc...

Mithril Gun: 64 (perfect accuracy)
Level 40 Archer with Ultimus/Thief/Power/Ring: 110
Level 40 Archer with Gastrifitis/Thief/Power/Ring: 120
Level 40 Geo with Rune/Thief/Power/Ring: 168
Level 40 Knight with Ice/Black/Ring: 169 (+25 sometimes) (8 speed = they suck)
Level 40 Knight with some brave raising, Excalibur/Ring: 189 (12 speed = they RULE)
Level 40 Mediator with some faith raising, E-Gun/Thief/Black/Ring: 213

Hmm...just thinking on this mixed party some more...I don't think having shields on everyone actually matters...much at all.  All the people who aren't weilding elemental guns probably have 20 faith anyway.  And they're not going to be a priority for faith raising (that would be your elemental gun users until they're 94 faith).  The elemental gun people should be attacking, not healing.

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Yeah, very good points about Charge, there. I will point out that AU is hilariously ahead for what is probably the best non-Geomancer strategy for damage (guns... just not much respect for either type of bow).

I hadn't thought of that.  When I was seriously doing the AU vs Charge comparison, I had already removed guns from the equation.  Yeah, that's a big point in AU's favour.

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Attack Up does turn a lot of 2HKOs into OHKOs, though (and just to be clear, I mean before Charge); we aren't facing things with infinite HP, so while, say, an enemy with a Wizard Mantle may feel like a close fight between the two (1.33x vs. 1.22x), if there's a OHKO line to worry about, it may not be.

If you're OHKOing using AU without Charge, then Concentrate+Charge will guarantee a OHKO.

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The one place I do feel a "You Must" is Attack Up: it's not always the best option, but you absolutely want it learned for fights like Velius.

This is fair. For everything else, Geo isn't "you must", but it is probably the best option for... almost everything. It's virtually impossible to make a party that doesn't rely on something from Geomancer without going "okay this is clearly sub-optimum".

Concentrate Archers rarely do (only occasionally using Attack Up) and that's one of the better Archer setups.  Although...yeah, I guess it's hard to take Concentrate Archers too seriously when they're competing with Attack Up Mediators (who also never miss).  What else...

Elemental Gun Mediators use nothing from Geo, but that's just at the end of the game.

Dance setups use nothing from Geo--if anything the optimum Dance setup is something like Equip Armor, P-Bag, sit around tanking for your party while Nameless Dance does horrible things.

"Get a Chantage(s) and crush the rest of the game" strategies are Thief and sometimes Mediator.  Once you have a Chantage, the Chantage user can do whatever, and everyone else should do their best to stay healthy (keep at very long range--guns and Dance are good for this--and keep at high durability to be a low-priority target, so...drop faith, Equip Armor/Equip Shield, Arrow Guard).

Invite some Tiamats doesn't involve using anything from Geomancer.

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On the other hand, could I see ignoring Dancer and Mediator entirely? Yeah, you bet. If Dancers could be male you could argue me into saying no Dance = stupid choice, but as is I don't think it's unreasonable.

Hm, one thing I hadn't thought of--with Mediator still in the mix, that raises the value of Dancer a lot.  All this arguing over "female is such a penalty!!!" can be completely ignored by going for guns (which are pretty competitive as a physical).  And the 33% chance of Zigolis Swamp Uribo also makes females quite attractive.

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Mediator's tricks feel highly ignorable to me (we haven't yet reached the point where the game is hard enough to justify wasting time with, say, brave raising and poaching).

Faith Lowering: it takes 5 actions to lower your faith from 40 to 20.  And these aren't BS actions that you'd only take after you're guaranteed to win and just screwing around with the fight--these are often productive in-battle actions.

Invitation: If you don't have this in Zigolis Swamp, you're doing it wrong.  We're also reaching the point where using monsters in the party is probably optimal.  I mean, let's see...level 40 you say?  Bearing in mind the damage numbers a few quotes up (humans cap out around 200, and only at close range)...

Tiamat: Triple Flame deals 285 per hit on average (actually...probably slightly more due to random monster stats compounding with Tiamat formulae).  They have 443 HP (Knights can match this, but it's high).  They have 9 speed (juuust barely below their 10 speed point) which puts them slightly below average.
Red Chocobo: Choco Meteor deals 128 per hit on average.  Choco Ball...still sucks.  HP/speed are similar enough to Tiamat (same speed, less HP but not lots less).
Cocatoris: Melee attack is 192 (with brave raised to 75-80 range).  Their Petrify is about 70%.  Speed's about the same as Tiamat/Red Chocobo.  HP is trash (214 or so.  Mime-level garbage).
Vampire: is like Cocatoris without the damage or movement, but with 3-range Petrify...except that it sometimes adds Stop instead of Petrify.
Dark Behemoth: Melee attack is 414 with good brave.  A decent amount slower than the other monsters (for all that it's still 9 speed at this level).  HP is...440; less than Tiamats already, huh >_>.

Hm...yeah, ok, Tiamat aside, these suck.  Red Chocobo you might as well use Attack Up Charge Mediator.  Cocatoris you might as well use Move+2 Geomancer.  Dark Behemoth...well if you really care about damage output more than range, then yes, Dark Behemoth is pretty good.  I don't know; maybe they're better as PC monsters than they are as enemy monsters?  Because as enemies they're generally less threatening than Red Chocobos and Cocatorises.  Probably a moot point, though, as Dark Behemoths show up at the same time as Tiamats (start of Chapter 4) and if it's a choice between these two, Tiamat is the obvious answer.

Tiamats, though, Tiamats are good.  Are they centralizingly good?  Hmm...certainly 285 matches the best Bracer+Attack Up melees, but it's at range, and can easily hit three times given the right map (making it dwarf human damage).  Triple Bracelet is revoltingly good against zodiacs; like...better than Life Drain.

Speaking of, monsters do offer some utility.  If you come across some Ghouls/Gusts early, it's probably worth inviting them to breed 4x Revenants to just auto-win against Zodiacs.  And umm...I guess nothing else from the monster camp is worth noting at all (the monster revival is a monster skill, so that's out.  Taiju has some cheap imitations of Kiyomori, but they're SO BAD).

So...hmm, yeah, pretty good argument that you're being sub-optimal if you don't keep an inviter in your party at all times in case you run across a Tiamat family or Revenant family.

And...I suppose guns are never mandatory, they're just...really good.

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The only other "You must" choice is possibly Thief

Archer deserves a mention here.  You will be using Charge, especially on assassination missions.  Doesn't really matter if your class is Geo, Archer, or Mediator here--if your plan A is to physically attack, you really ought to be using Charge.

If you want to argue that Archer isn't a "you must" you basically have to argue that physical attacks are not plan A.  And that's possible in some fights (Dance, Talk Skill, Battle Skill, Elemental, and Tiamats can be plan A).  But even in these situations you'll often STILL be using Charge.  If you're a Chapter 2 Geomancer taking advantage of Ch2 mage equips, Charge is probably still your secondary.  If your job is to Talk Skill, you probably still have a gun, and because you have a gun, charge.  If you're a Dancer...frankly Dancer can use any class, but Archer is at least a strong option; good HP, good PA, you care little about the loss of shields from equipping longbows, you like the longbow speed formula, and you get Charge for when you switch to damage mode on sleeping frogs, whereas no other Dancer setup gives you Charge.  Battle Skill...is good in like 3 fights, ever.  Tiamats are endgame.

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buuut hilariously Bard is actually giving it some competition. In fact, I'm going to argue Geomancer's move as more important than Move + 2! Let's see what happens when we remove Thief/Geo from the game.

Basically, there are three stages of the game: Before you get M+2, before you get M+3, and after getting M+3 (you may or may not reach all stages with each character, but you get the idea).

In stage 1, Geo has 4 move, while all other classes (excluding the unpleasant thief, which is probably the #5 carrier) has 3. As you have already alluded to, 4 move is a big deal: you can walk behind a knight with this. Remove Geo and you're -1 move. Remove thief and... no change (I'm assuming you switch to knight/etc.).

In stage 2, Geo has 4 move, while Thief is giving its +2 to other classes so they can have 5. Now, 4->5 isn't as big a deal, but it's still 1 move, and this section lasts a while.

In stage 3, Thief is no longer doing anything useful, while Geomancer still has 7 move to everyone else's 6 (except females I guess, but if you're using one it's for Dance so whatever at them being still stuck at 4).

It's really a question of how long each stage lasts. If we assume the game is split 25%/50%/25% for these stages, then it's a tie... but a tie I'll break in Geo's favour because of 3->4 being a more important boost than anyone else. I could still see arguing Move + 2 over Geomancer's movement, mind. But it's actually close enough that everything else Geo brings to the table is making for an obvious win (whereas thief is bringing... almost nothing! +1 speed sometimes and a possible grab at trinkets I suspect aren't worth the JP/time investment).

How'd I get on that tangent? Oh well.

Interesting...but I really can't agree with the 25%/50%/25% split.  It takes ~450 JP to unlock Geomancer.  It takes ~620 JP to unlock Move+2.  It's actually pretty close--they basically unlock at the same time.  And note that it's not like FFT without bannings--that 350 Monk JP can't be used anything ever--it's basically just 350 JP that you're "spending" on unlocking Geomancer.  So...they're not far off as unlocks.

And I similarly don't agree with using Move+3 for 25% of the game.  This assumes not female, and not a Tiamat.  This assumes that you're willing to kill your PA growth (granted, the PA growth loss isn't that bad--makes you like...half way between a female and a male, but that's still like trading 1 PA for 1 Move, which...when your move is already 5-6...that's marginal).  And it's still a good 2500 JP, and you'd still be very weird if you bee-lined for M+3 out of the gate; you presumably want to get quite a few skills first.  It's also noteworthy that...with Squire gone, spillover JP is literally half your JP, and unless you're going to Bard or Mime en-masse, you get minimal help with spillover (only Mediator contributes/benefits from your spillover).  So...take that 2500 JP.  If only one party member goes Bard, it's now more-like 4500 JP.  If two go Bard it's more-like 3700 JP.  Three is like 3150 JP.  Four, 2800 JP.  Five, 2500 JP.

Basically, you need to send at least three characters to Bard or the JP cost is oppressive, and sending three people to Bard just sounds weak to me.  The trade (+1 Move for -1 PA) is marginal anyway.  And such a marginal boost looks awful when you might be trading some powerful abilities for it.  If you get lucky at Zigolis Swamp, you'll probably be dropping those recruits for level 1 females anyway.  If you get lucky in Chapter 4, you'll probably be dropping those recruits for Tiamats.

Just...wow, Move+3 is so bad in this meta.  I'm having a hard time imagining a setup that goes Move+3 which I don't consider sub-optimal.

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Hilarious fact: Lowering faith notably below 40 actually starts making the game harder again. Sure, you wall magic EVEN HARDER (it doesn't do well against 40) but very quickly guys like Velius and Adramelk start moving over to their status which makes them scarier (especially since our ability to heal status is uh... not actually existant. Black Chocobo hype?). Now, I'm sure lowering Ramza's faith in particular is useful (and if you're optimising, 40 faith isn't perfect... probably closer to 30-35), but I'm not seeing it as terribly overcentralising.

It...really only makes two fights harder (Velius and Adramelk).  If Zalera uses Nightmare all day, you're happy.  If Hashmallum does nothing but Death Cold and physical attacks, you're probably fine with that (especially because you can Threaten him).  Altima actually already has an AI tag that prevents her from using All-Ultima more than once every five or so turns.  Balk people will literally bait into using arm-aim leg-aim over attacking (via shields).  And even against Velius/Adramelk, having one person at 50 faith to bait them into charging, and everyone else at 10 faith is overall better than mass 40-faith.  These bosses have, AoE and all that.  If you're really in the mood, you can just murder these two specific fights anyway (Sing Ramza rapes them both due to free setup time).

And other than those two fights, super-low faith is like...Arrow Guard; tanking one type of damage really hard does actually make a significant difference to your overall durability.  And even if you have one or two high-faith members as your "Velius/Adramelk bait", you can safely be aggressive and run forward with your low-faith units, and force enemy mages into any position you want with your high faith units.

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That said, no. The combination of Geomancer + Attack Up is the most centralising thing in the current metagame. Want melee damage? Remove Geomancer and your best bet while still equipping a hat is Equip Sword Archer... Geomancer has 33% more damage. Want gun damage? Geomancer's Attack Up is adding 33% to that as well. Want a melee fighter with concentrate? Geomancer is ahead of everyone else by... like double. I mean Charge Goncentrate Geomancer can actually pull ITE OHKOs with some reliability, something no other setup can manage. (Obviously this setup speaks highly of Archer too, but it definitely needs both.) There's no way to ignore Geomancer without losing considerable damage in the second half of the game.

Want melee damage?  Frankly, I don't.  Melee damage gets you countered.  Melee damage means moving into range of the enemies, which is bad when you have no healing or revival.

I appreciate damage, sure, but it doesn't have to be Melee.  For instance, for most of Chapter 3, Attack Up Mithral Gun is about the same as Concentrate Sword.  (Concentrate Sword goes 81, 90, 110, 132 whereas Attack Up Mithral Gun stays steady at 80...but Mediator can also be expected to be 1-2 speed faster, so that's actually the equivalent of 93-106).  In Chapter 2, the story is similar (Concentrate Sword comes out at 56.  Attack Up Gun is 48, but with the speed advantage can be the equivalent of 56).  Which is to say, my range 8 attacker is dealing almost as much damage as my melee attacker.  Geo pulls ahead in damage at the start of Chapter 4/end of Chapter 3, but then falls behind again if you get any supertoys (Elemental Guns/Tiamats/Excalibur).

Yeah, basically all damage optimizing setups use Attack Up (or Concentrate).  But all damage optimizing setups use Charge, too.  And if using guns, I'd prioritize getting at least a few charges before Attack Up (Attack Up is the equivalent of Charge+2 on both Mithral and Romanda guns.  Charge+3/+4/+5 are much cheaper on the JP than Attack Up AND they deal more damage).  Eventually I will want both, of course.

But there's a bigger question.  Why damage?  Are you trying to kill mooks?  Nameless Dance is probably better.  Are you trying to kill high-HP bosses who can't be killed in one round of unblockable ranged attacks?  Have you considered cheesing them out?  Speed Break beats most Zodiacs in 1.5 turns (1.5 because they get half a round after the average -6 speed from your first round).  Gravity's still out there if you get lucky with your invites/breeding.  Hashmallum becomes completely helpless after 3x Threaten, 3x Solution, which you can nearly swing in one round.  Balk II can't handle Equip Shield Nameless Dance.  Velius dislikes Singing Ramzas being silly.

So...basically, I question your premises.  I don't at all see why optimizing melee damage is important, when range 8 damage is often competitive.  And I'm thinking that optimizing damage isn't the most powerful path.  Among other things, even if you're not trying to optimize damage, you'll be able to pump out a decent amount (Charge+3 is practically free.  Attack Up is on the way to Dancer).  So...even in a party built around non-damage stuff like Dance, Breaks, Sing, and Talk Skill, you can probably pull out some acceptable damage at a moment's notice (Charge+3 Mediators require, what, a 200 JP skill and a class unlock you probably had anyway given the style of this party?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 30, 2011, 04:06:28 AM
Actually...hm, I have a proposal for the best party in the round of 8.

4 female Mediators alternating between Dance and Charge (and on rare occasions Battle Skill).  Maybe Ramza goes Bard for the lulz...well...ok no, probably not.

In Chapter 2, you're unlocking Dancer, which means you get to use Chapter 2 Elemental with Wizard Robe, which is pretty damn nice.
In Chapter 3, 4x Dance is murder, and in the few fights where it's not ideal, 5x Charge AU Gun kind-of wins.
In Chapter 4, maybe you'll hit the invite lottery and pick up Tiamats or Elemental Guns or poached Chantages (you will if you take any time to grind).  If you don't...4x Dance, with 1x Ramza Ice Heal for mooks.  Guns+Battle Skill for most of the zodiacs.  Human bosses...honestly still die to 5x guns+AU+Charge, although you can do slightly better with Concentrate+Ultimus Bow if you get one, and might want to mix in some Concentrate Melee--probably not on all five characters due to surround issues and females, though.  Anti-physical bosses like Rofel and Elmdor probably call for Elemental (or Red Chocobo if Boco bred).

Just...feels like you get access to the best stuff.  Elemental when it's good.  4x Dance.  Mass AU Charge Guns.  Well-positioned to break the game in any number of Mediator ways (via Tiamat/Elemental Gun/4x Chantage).  If you don't get a singe Game-break, 4x Dance 1x Ice Healer sounds fairly optimal for killing most of Chapter 4 (and some of these dancers can be backup ice healers if desired).  Most of the remaining fights die to 5x Battle Skill Gun, or are fairly easily blitzed via Guns/Bows/Swords/Elemental.

This has some weaknesses--the damage is bad in Chapter 1.  If you miss every single Invite lottery, and need to damage blitz, and AU Charge Mithral guns aren't enough, then it's about 15% below a male party damage in chapter 4.  And even there, it probably has the edge in most other Chapter 4 fights due to having 4x Nameless Dance + healing.  On the other hand, it's more or less up to par on damage in Chapters 2-3 (Elemental+Guns from females is equal to the male performance, and in their respective chapters these are arguably the most useful damage overall).




There's definitely setups that could get an early edge on this party, but would fall rapidly behind once it starts coming online.  And I'm really struggling to think of a party with a better long-term plan than this party (in the 33% event of Zigolis Swamp Uribo, it outperforms parties with less than 4 females.  Parties with an equal number of females would seem foolish to not get Dance on all of them, and not get a good gun setup on all of them.  And it loses basically nothing in the event that you pick up Tiamats or Elemental Guns.  If none of the crazy stuff happens, I'm just not picturing male parties keeping up with 4x Nameless Dance from units that can match them in some of their best damage).



Now, as to which class this recommends, I'm not sure.  It uses lots of Mediator/Geo/Dancer/Archer pretty much every time (being the four classes that lose the least from being female...not to mention the four most standout classes to begin with).  Well...actually, no, I'm being silly: if the best party uses max females, then it's probably time to boot Dancer....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 30, 2011, 08:35:17 AM
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PA+7 equips?  You could afford multiple Bracers at that point?

At least three? Yeah. Your "don't fight randoms ever" strategy is biting you here! As if the levels weren't sign enough. <_<

Though honestly, if you thought you were going to be short of gil for Velius (who you have way more respect for than me, and even for me he's a "plan SCCs around" type fight), uh, propositions. Goland/Lesalia. A bit of lost time but really not much. Get shiny gil. It feels like even 6 speed should let you win if you have Bracers, but eh, don't really care to argue that any more; this is tangenty enough.

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The problem with running forward to hit Velius physically (with speed 7 Geomancers) is that if Velius doesn't die, then all those Geos are dead. 

And if Hashmalum's HP survives 2000 HP worth of damage, lots of strategies against him might fail too.

Neither is going to happen. You don't miss charging opponents, you can calc out all your damage, you can and will kill him every time. You can have at least one Taurus/Capricorn generic you can't get your Elemental chipping damage high enough; whatever it takes. I think this thought process is why I have less trouble with Velius than you do*; the dude is so predictable and while good, you can plan for him before you even start the playthrough.

*(This statement isn't meant to be arrogant, because I'm well aware there are several FFT battles I have way more trouble with than you on average. I just find the difference interesting, and your own posts seem to kinda shed light on the reason to me.)


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35 doesn't sound right to me--there's plenty of ties/very small wins and I'm not sure quite what to do with brave-raised Excalibur (which is obviously Knight favoured, but only on one character).

I was ignoring Excalibur, let alone post-brave twinkery Excalibur, since you have at most one. Yes that is good and you'll probably use it (although extra speed isn't always good or needed, and blargh at -1 move and Battle Skill), but we have four other characters.

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I feel like it's more along the lines of: Knight and Geo are close to tied in 30 battles (sometimes favouring Knight, sometimes Geo, but usually a 1 PA gap), and Geo has a strong advantage in 15 battles (basically Chapter 3).

Geo also has a large advantage on non-Excalibur users as the chapter goes on and speed-boosting gets both more practical (to maintain good HP) and sometimes even necessary.

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I'm skeptical about stuff that measures strictly damage over, say, 8 range.

*shrug* When the damage gap is high enough, it works better. I'd take a skillsetless Geomancer SCC over a skillsetless Mediator SCC any day, even waiving the part of the game before guns. I don't have quite the same high opinion of guns that you do, and possibly range in general. (It just happens that in unbanned FFT, lots of ranged options are really powerful ANYWAY... and even can strike many enemies at once.)

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As for "lolcrossbows", if you have elemental guns, then you have Gastrafitis.  (Ok, that's not strictly true, but pretty close).  Gastrafitis is 71% of the damage of Rune Blade in exchange for 4 range.

See, I don't see how that's not an obvious losing trade, given how clunky 3-4 line of sight range only is (and you lose 1 off your effective range due to archer move anyway). I'm really just arguing personal experience here at this point, I'll grant. lolcrossbows also of course applies any time before Gastrifitis exists, while sword progression is fairly linear aside from a bit of a stall in mid chapter 2.

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*I've been assuming Archer can get Ultimus Bow; they tend to swing that on their SCC.  Hell, they can sometimes get Yoichi bows on the SCC.  And this is when they're not likely to have someone with Invitation in the party to make getting Ultimus Bows fairly easy.

what

You're basically hyping a 12.5% random drop at the sluice and again at Germinas Peak (you do NOT stall Poeskas Lake). And you lose the 108 Gems anyway so it's not even much of an upgrade... Yoichi acquisition on an SCC is all kinds of wrong; you get one shot at that in UBS4 unless we're seriously suggesting doing eight floors of the Deep Dungeon.

That's on the SCC of course. Non-SCC it's a bit more reasonable (Invitation/theft and all) though I still would never bother; they get bow damage up a bit but it's still nowhere near competitive.

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If you're OHKOing using AU without Charge, then Concentrate+Charge will guarantee a OHKO.

Sure, but Charge isn't always practical. In order to match Attack Up provided you have 12 PA already, you need Charge+4... an 8 CT attack. If your speed is only 8 due to it being a Twist Headband fight, and there are enemies who are speed 10, this is already untenable; the best you'll manage is Charge+3, and that drops to Charge+2 against enemies who move-wait first turn (which is usually the case for melee enemies). And then there's charging enemies (which includes several bosses) who just need to be killed right away, usually.

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Dance setups use nothing from Geo--if anything the optimum Dance setup is something like Equip Armor, P-Bag, sit around tanking for your party while Nameless Dance does horrible things.

The thing is, even as you noted before, Nameless Dance has diminishing returns, and you have one guaranteed non-Dancer even if we're going for four of them. So no matter what, you're reliant on something from the Geomancer tree to have a maximum-killing-power fighter running around dealing with the things which escape status and can threaten your party. (I guarantee you the Dancer SCC would be waaay easier with this!)

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Archer deserves a mention here.  You will be using Charge, especially on assassination missions.  Doesn't really matter if your class is Geo, Archer, or Mediator here--if your plan A is to physically attack, you really ought to be using Charge.

So are you arguing that the #13 is archer? I'm not really convinced; Attack Up damage already gets pretty high, and Charge/Concentrate are both kinda situational in different ways, unlike AU which is a strict improvement, always, and Geo still has a much better carrier (bows still suck).

(Still, to spoil things for the bottom of the post, I'm beginning to think it's the best competition. And that is a weird thing to confront.)

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Interesting...but I really can't agree with the 25%/50%/25% split.

Yeah, fair. (Although I don't think Move+2 is worth beelining to because there are other important things I need to grab... in jobs that don't have 40-70% of Geomancer damage at various points in the game. And under your definition of a dead job, it's still better to be in Monk than in Thief.)

Regardless, my general point was of course that this whole innate 4 move thing, an afterthought in Geo's bag of tricks, holds up remarkably well to Thief's best attribute. Elfboy just hatin' on FFT thieves as usual!

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And even if you have one or two high-faith members as your "Velius/Adramelk bait", you can safely be aggressive and run forward with your low-faith units, and force enemy mages into any position you want with your high faith units.

All of this stuff is pretty fair.

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Want melee damage?  Frankly, I don't.  Melee damage gets you countered.  Melee damage means moving into range of the enemies, which is bad when you have no healing or revival.

Countered by.. what exactly? Enemies hardly ever have it besides monsters (only need to be targeted in four, extremely easy, fights) and a few bosses (who, once you are attacking at melee, you are generally killing).

Enemies move into your range easily enough. Obviously range has value, but when we're talking about double the damage? Not that much value. If it were, Archer SCC wouldn't be hard. Sure, they have range, one of the hyped AU/Charge duo and ignore evade! From everything you've hyped they should have an easy time, but they... don't. And "lack of ice healing" (besides ice bow + ice shield!) isn't the reason why Ninja/Geomancer crush them (and would even if throw/elemental were banned). It's the fights they have trouble blitzing, or trouble cleaning up before the timer expires, because of lower offence.

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For instance, for most of Chapter 3, Attack Up Mithral Gun is about the same as Concentrate Sword.  (Concentrate Sword goes 81, 90, 110, 132 whereas Attack Up Mithral Gun stays steady at 80...but Mediator can also be expected to be 1-2 speed faster, so that's actually the equivalent of 93-106).

I have a lot of objections here.

-Attack Up being factored in for guns is a silent testament to what Geomancer is doing. You'll notice I have no trouble ignoring the sum total of Mediator's contributions to the game (faith lowering is the cool, but hardly necessary); the fact that you're having trouble doing the same for Geomancer strikes me as evidence for which class is overcentralising.
-You don't have Mithril for Goland (or Ancient Swords barring an ill-advised detour, granted). You only have Mithril for Zalmo on at most two people, and only at a cost to your performance in Goland.
-This gun limit remains until after Grog Hill unless you take a massive, inefficient detour (risks 8 randoms) when Mithril Guns show up in Goug.
-Swords only need Concentrate for about half the fights in the chapter; the other half they want AU for a damage boost.
-Getting 1-2 speed faster isn't very useful for the most part here, given that chapter 3 enemies are rarely if ever more than 1 above even unboosted speed. And as usual, if Geomancer desperately needs that point of speed, they can grab it; Mediator has no such recourse for a damage boost.

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So...basically, I question your premises.  I don't at all see why optimizing melee damage is important, when range 8 damage is often competitive.  And I'm thinking that optimizing damage isn't the most powerful path.

I would contend that it is. All manner of inoffensive tactics at this point are suspect; they can miss (Dance, Battle Skill, much of Talk Skill) and they tend to lead to longer battles which, with our crappy to non-existant healing, we'd like to avoid. Damage optimisation is literally the only sane tactic for some fights (such as Velius) and is at worst a very strong option. I'm not so much optimising melee damage as I am damage in general; it just so happens that, at most points, melee is too far ahead to consider and ranged must be relegated to a role of backup (which Geomancer conveniently provides!). But of course, the fact that the best ranged option is reliant on Attack Up only cements the Geomancer lead. Only spellguns really break its hold (and Excalibur for one person, though even that will want AU sometimes), and then, only for the last 11 battles, and only by fighting potentially many randoms and incurring potentially many resets looking for 'em.

It's hard to say which of us is right on the best thing to optimise, but my personal experience drawn from a variety of challenges I've done (including all the relevant SCCs in question), is that high damage is the best ward against being overwhelmed, especially when you lack healing and revival. Even Yin Yang Magic, the (non-Math) king of debilitation, would be substantially worse without an instant-kill status (effectively the same as damage) for speeding up fights in an emergency, and of course the immensely damageing Life Drain to deal with bosses.


Proposed party:

Hm, I'll readilly admit that digesting an "optimum party" for a current counter-proposal is currently out of my reach, so... I'll just critique the given one.

My main concern with that party is bosses, certainly, as well as any fight where you can get blitzed quickly (e.g. a Yardow Ninja getting off a stupidly good throw on good compat or whatever) and lose a person. You just don't have the offence to come back from this. You can be all "but I can turn people into frogs and lower their speed" but none of this matters because you lack revival and a first-round death requires at worst a 4-round victory (5 after Angel Rings, granted). Mediator HP is even a little shaky (and has either no shields or even worse damage) so this isn't that hard to see happening. I also kneejerk that party not liking many zodiac demons much since again, poor damage, and even with low faith, if any annoying combination of status (Loss, etc.), support, or the boss' physical attacks (maybe even a crit) down a PC, you're SOL even if you have the zodiac down to 3 speed by this point most likely (ohnoes, Mithril Guns and no Charge because you opted for Battle Skill).

Now of course the main fix to this is to up your offence, and sometimes to up your durability, and you probably know where I'm going with this. Basically you'll want at least some of those Mediators to be Geomancers instead. And you may as well make them male, losing out on some Dance in order to gain some killing power. Sure, you "lose" to a rare party that successfully invites, breeds and poaches a Uribo (and be much worse in any fights that they do) by the time they get up to Chantage number... 3 or so but that seems like the least of my concerns; even one Chantage would probably let me break the game as badly. I'm more concerned with all the times that doesn't happen, by far. So yeah, now the setup is looking something like:

Males: Geomancer, AU/Concentrate, Charge/whatever
Females: Mediator, AU, Dance/Charge/Battle Skill

I'd generally estimate the split to be 3/2. Obviously it may vary battle to battle (our own biases on the value of range will push things back and forth there) and 2/3 is also possible. But regardless, there are two main setups. Geomancer is... the carrier of one, provides the support skill to another, and provides that same support skill to itself sometimes. Archer provides a support skill to one setup some of the time, and a skillset fairly often. Mediator is the carrier of one. Dancer provides the common skillset choice to one. Thief (maybe Bard) provides a common movement skill. Reactions are too much up to taste and situation.

Looks to me that Archer is the main competition to Geomancer for top value in this party. Dancer... I'm actually less convinced by than I was a post or two ago. It is literally just providing a skillset, and one that fails it up in some fights to boot (and can fail even when it should be good)... there's certainly an argument that Charge is at least on par with it, and Archer has Concentrate in the mix as well.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 30, 2011, 12:23:05 PM
Just posting from a cell phone this time so I'll be brief but...

One thing I've been mulling over in my mind re: grinding is....:

If you're willing to take an average of two (quick) resets, you can get a Uribo from Zigolis Swamp 100% of the time.

I hadn't really considered this before (given that I've gone for Elemental Guns but not Chantages).  That's...a fairly small investment (2 resets; maybe 30 seconds each) for a big gain in power later on.

Which begs the question, do we expect 3+ resets later in the game given this set of 8 classes without Chantages?  Because if we do, then we should reset until Uribo every time.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 30, 2011, 06:28:33 PM
I really want to see one of you two play through with this Charlie's Angels team of dancing gunners and actually playtest this theorycrafting.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on July 30, 2011, 06:29:22 PM
I volunteer Elfboy because I want to watch~
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 30, 2011, 06:45:27 PM
Remember to keep it Classic Angels themed as that gives you more names to work with, two males and six females to work with in case you have to have more than just Ramza and your 4 primary recruits (Jill, Sabrina, Kelly and Kris)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 30, 2011, 07:38:45 PM
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I hadn't really considered this before (given that I've gone for Elemental Guns but not Chantages).  That's...a fairly small investment (2 resets; maybe 30 seconds each) for a big gain in power later on.

Which begs the question, do we expect 3+ resets later in the game given this set of 8 classes without Chantages?  Because if we do, then we should reset until Uribo every time.

Hmm. I'll start by saying that I've personally been assuming that 0 resets is possible and maybe even the goal at this point, though how bad a reset is needs to be weighed against raw time probably and I haven't decided on that.

But yeah, I don't... think I assume 3+ resets. Tell you what: I'm going to look through my SCC logs of Archer, Geomancer, Mediator, and Dancer, and pick out the second lowest of resets for each. Why second lowest? Well, "lowest" should generally be achievable, but I'm acknowledging that there's some luck in play. This is a pretty hand-wavy way to do it, but let's go. Starting with chapter 3 for obvious reasons, and only listing fights where the second lowest reset count exceeds 0...


Inside Riovanes: 2. Doesn't count, since Geomancer was 0 and we can easily emulate this strategy to win 100% of the time. Additionally, your claim is that my Mediator tally should be 0, too, anyway.

Riovanes Rooftop: 1. Doesn't count, Chantage wouldn't prevent this.

Bed Desert: 1. Interesting; I can't think of a surefire, "always win" strategy here given that none of these classes did, for me. I'd still not expect to have resets with a more balanced team (we can do things like Dance to thin numbers AND shields to resist ice AND damage to finish), but they're possible.

Bethla Sluice: 2. Possibly needs to be disqualified as an "Elfboy finds this battle harder than most" fight; it's one I don't "get". Still, regardless of out strategy here the usual SCC problem of "any death is unacceptable" rears its ugly head. Move+2 on Ramza probably helps a -lot- with making that less true, though...

Altima: 1. Certainly a fight that, with almost any strategy that lacks revival, I can see a reset on reasonably. On the other hand, it's probable that "Geomancer, now with Charge and Move+2/3!" pushes the offence over the top and in terms of reliably killing, the way Ninja already is.


So, looking at all of this, I guess it's... possible that Chantages would save us three resets? Far from certain though; it still seems at least possible to me that 0 is the goal. Hm, now I'm tempted to do a run of the game with this setup...

The real question is, though, if we do decide Chantages are worth it, what does it change? Thief/Mediator are getting joint credit for it (with Mediator being the better of the two otherwise). Removing Mediator removes Chantage as a strategy, but does this drive our reset count up significantly? Doesn't look like it. I suppose the argument is that Mediator is otherwise close enough to most overcentralising class for this to push it over the top (I don't agree, I think it's third at best right now).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 30, 2011, 10:24:51 PM
Riovanes Rooftop: 1. Doesn't count, Chantage wouldn't prevent this.

Chantage lets you go in with no clothes/hats on several characters, guaranteeing that said characters will be targeted (guaranteed OHKO in the AI's mind--I don't think the AI considers Reraise in terms of high-priority targets).  Normally this would be a questionable tactic.

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Bed Desert: 1. Interesting; I can't think of a surefire, "always win" strategy here given that none of these classes did, for me. I'd still not expect to have resets with a more balanced team (we can do things like Dance to thin numbers AND shields to resist ice AND damage to finish), but they're possible.

Yeah, Dance+Ice Shield+retreat into the corner sounds quite powerful to me.

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Bethla Sluice: 2. Possibly needs to be disqualified as an "Elfboy finds this battle harder than most" fight; it's one I don't "get". Still, regardless of out strategy here the usual SCC problem of "any death is unacceptable" rears its ugly head. Move+2 on Ramza probably helps a -lot- with making that less true, though...

Sluice is a fight that...on regular-levelled SCCs I've only lost with...Geomancer (2 resets I think).  I'm not sure if level 1 Mediators lost here--they might have.  So...actually, yeah, while I 0-resetted with a lot of classes at the Sluice that I'd heard other SCCers complain about (Time Mages, Oracles) I'm not sure any of this group-of-8 classes really takes the Sluice.  (Also, complaining about Time Mages and Oracles in Chapter 4...including people like Ulti...yeah -_-).

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Removing Mediator removes Chantage as a strategy, but does this drive our reset count up significantly? Doesn't look like it. I suppose the argument is that Mediator is otherwise close enough to most overcentralising class for this to push it over the top (I don't agree, I think it's third at best right now).

Well...to me the question isn't necessarily which class on removal drives the reset count up, and more looking for things that are format-warping.  In that...if you have the second best skillset and the second best stats and the second best reaction and the second best movement and the second best support...you probably shouldn't be banned--nothing you have sounds particularly centralizing.

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The real question is, though, if we do decide Chantages are worth it, what does it change? Thief/Mediator are getting joint credit for it (with Mediator being the better of the two otherwise).

Chantage parties actually behave significantly differently.  The females can do...frankly anything they want.  They do want speed, because they want to revive often, and their accessory slot is locked in, but that's about it.  Everything else...they want to be able to finish things fast (damage), they want to make themselves tempting targets (low HP, high faith) and they want to be able to protect their men if an enemy gets the wrong idea (umm...Mimic Daravon, I guess?)

Males, though, are your more important setup--you have to optimize them to not die; you have to optimize them to not be targeted.  Which is to say...Knights!  Knights with 03 Faith!  Take your pick of Weapon Guard or Arrow Guard.  Oh, also, wear Chameleon Robes/Angel Rings and Death Sentence yourself a lot.  Equip Gun to occasionally take a potshot while you're running into a corner, I guess?  Ice Brand Ice Shield in Chapter 4, of course.  (But notably Ice Brand Ice Shield in Knight, not Geo.  You want more HP.  You want less speed so that you die slower if something goes wrong).  Notably, getting the males right is a lot more important than getting the females right; if you deal 30% more damage with a female setup, that's cool.  If you're not Death Sentencing yourself as a male and taking twice as much damage as a result, that's a huge problem--you'd need to deal twice as much damage with females to counterbalance that.

In theory you might need to worry about status, but in-practice...naaah.  Low HP, high faith, and enemies will nearly always try to kill the girls.  If Velius or Adramelk petrifies your males, then you thank them for the positive status.

Which is to say, yeah, optimal Chantage play is just...weird.  I want to say Death Sentence, Solution, Ice Healing, and the Knight class are your most highly valued abilities just because male survival matters a lot more than female effectiveness?  (Roughly in that order for importance).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 30, 2011, 11:18:10 PM
For the record, I 0-resetting the sluice with TMs and Oracles as well! Just... didn't manage it with a single one of the 8 remaining classes. (Well, the six I've done.) <_<

I'm a bit baffled by Death Sentence hype. It's a "funny" strategy but rarely ever actually useful in my experience (excluding when the enemies do it to you, in which case, thanks for the free positive status)... and that's with Secret Fist. Talk Skill Death Sentence itself hits like... a third of the time. A bit better with good internal zodiac (still not likely breaking 50 except in rare cases of best compat or really suped-up MA, maybe for Elemental?) but still this is a terrible idea in anything except an act of desperation.

Not really interested in discussing this warped-around-Chantage metagame since that's just... not how the game is played. If you asked 20 skilled FFT players to play through the game using the eight classes we currently have, hardly any would like the situation you described, I'm pretty sure. You can argue it's "optimum" but I'm really not interested in its discussion anyway. At this point I'm more interested in how to keep that reset count down in the 0-2 range, since I'm pretty sure that's doable (and if it is, renders the Chantage metagame moot).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 31, 2011, 08:18:56 PM
I'm a bit baffled by Death Sentence hype. It's a "funny" strategy but rarely ever actually useful in my experience (excluding when the enemies do it to you, in which case, thanks for the free positive status)... and that's with Secret Fist. Talk Skill Death Sentence itself hits like... a third of the time. A bit better with good internal zodiac (still not likely breaking 50 except in rare cases of best compat or really suped-up MA, maybe for Elemental?) but still this is a terrible idea in anything except an act of desperation.

Death Sentence is like a bad version of Phoenix Down.  It keeps your death counter under control, particularly on at-risk targets (like people who just reraised from their Angel Ring).  Which is to say, of course you don't use it on the Monk SCC: you have Revive, and Revive blows it out of the water (Revive being "a balanced version of phoenix down" rather than "a bad version of phoenix down").

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Not really interested in discussing this warped-around-Chantage metagame

Well, yeah, that was kind-of my point.  Basically, your setup is "Chantage", the dominating strategy is "Chantage".  I don't feel we should overthink questions like "what class am I going to put my Chantage-user into?"  (Unless as a tiebreaker for "which class between Thief and Mediator get credit?")
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 31, 2011, 08:49:05 PM
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Death Sentence is like a bad version of Phoenix Down.  It keeps your death counter under control, particularly on at-risk targets (like people who just reraised from their Angel Ring).  Which is to say, of course you don't use it on the Monk SCC: you have Revive, and Revive blows it out of the water (Revive being "a balanced version of phoenix down" rather than "a bad version of phoenix down").

Fair, but I certainly never used it on the Mediator SCC either! I guess the idea is... someone revives from their Angel Ring, you Death Sentence them to buy yourself some time? You'll tend to use 2-3 actions (and if they all miss, you just lost the battle) to apply this, and you hope you get those actions back in the future by the extension of the timer (if someone dies again this round because of your lack of doing much to the enemies, this probably goes to waste). I have a hard time seeing this being a good strategy especially often. It has some merit as an utter desperation tactic (and it's possible that, say, the Level 1 version of the challenge has more need of those), but that's about it, and we certainly aren't yet at the point where such desperation tactics feel necessary more than once in a blue moon.


Idly, I am currently playing through the game with only the 8 classes right now (up to Dorter) and the first thing I noticed is that, at the Igros checkpoint at least (no longbows, no Elemental), wow, females are a huge liability (-2 PA as a knight, although this shrinks at Level 3 granted... still, even -1 is quite notable when you have no healing so you have to outslug). This makes me strongly question the idea that four of them are optimum, though it's possible I'll be singing a different tune in a few battles of course, so take it with a grain of salt. Just... there's a lot of game to go before females actually pay off (mid-late C2).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 31, 2011, 10:14:10 PM
Fair, but I certainly never used it on the Mediator SCC either!

I did occasionally, and...I seem to remember watching someone else doing a Mediator SCC using it too (which would presumably be you or Excal)?

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I guess the idea is... someone revives from their Angel Ring, you Death Sentence them to buy yourself some time? You'll tend to use 2-3 actions (and if they all miss, you just lost the battle) to apply this, and you hope you get those actions back in the future by the extension of the timer (if someone dies again this round because of your lack of doing much to the enemies, this probably goes to waste).

It's situational.  You'll notice I haven't suggested that it's a noteworthy Mediator ability under normal circumstances.  The following calculations applying specifically more to the Mediator SCC...

Let's call it like...turn 3 when the crisis happens.  Turn 3 someone revives from Angel Ring and tries to Death Sentence themself (with good internal compatibility this is takes about two actions on average).  This is instead of going on the offence with their action (but they presumably would have died next turn being a low HP "kill me please Archer" target).  So it goes something like...

turn 3: -2 turns
turn 4: +1 turn (suppose for the sake of argument another character dies and uses up their reraise on turn 4)
turn 5: +1 turn
turn 6: +3 turns (all the people who aren't dead or didn't have their DS timer just end causing a skipped turn)
turn 7: (timer ends for character who dropped on turn 4)

Or, if you decide to DS both, you'll potentially get to about turn 9 or 10.



That said, this is...just flat out almost never relevant for the group of 8 classes.  Mediator with Attack Up and Charge deals about double the damage that a Mediator SCC normally deals, which means you will basically never find yourself running the numbers and thinking "I flat out don't have enough turns to kill all these enemies 64 damage at a time."  When it's 128 damage with guns (or more with other stuff) yeah, you will almost never need timer extensions from Death Sentence.

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Idly, I am currently playing through the game with only the 8 classes right now (up to Dorter) and the first thing I noticed is that, at the Igros checkpoint at least (no longbows, no Elemental), wow, females are a huge liability (-2 PA as a knight, although this shrinks at Level 3 granted... still, even -1 is quite notable when you have no healing so you have to outslug). This makes me strongly question the idea that four of them are optimum, though it's possible I'll be singing a different tune in a few battles of course, so take it with a grain of salt. Just... there's a lot of game to go before females actually pay off (mid-late C2).

Cool, keep us updated.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 01, 2011, 04:18:00 AM
I was ignoring Excalibur, let alone post-brave twinkery Excalibur, since you have at most one.

Depends--are you running a mixed party or a mono-typed party?  Like...if you're planning 2x Dance, 1x Elemental Gun, 2x Melee or something like that, then Excalibur might represent fully half of your melee setups.

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*shrug* When the damage gap is high enough, it works better. I'd take a skillsetless Geomancer SCC over a skillsetless Mediator SCC any day, even waiving the part of the game before guns. I don't have quite the same high opinion of guns that you do, and possibly range in general. (It just happens that in unbanned FFT, lots of ranged options are really powerful ANYWAY... and even can strike many enemies at once.)

"Skillsetless" in this case presumably still means R/S/M is allowed, yes?  Because Geo has R/S/M abilities and Mediator...doesn't have any that are relevant on the SCC.  And there's also the whole "skillsetless Mediators would be painfully bad before guns" (Barius Hill, oh god).  So...I agree!

These weaknesses become less of an issue when you have 8 classes.  In Chapter 1 don't use Mediator.  Get your mediator some R/S/M abilities from other classes.

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See, I don't see how that's not an obvious losing trade, given how clunky 3-4 line of sight range only is (and you lose 1 off your effective range due to archer move anyway).

It's more about the kiting/staying alive.  Attack and step back without the enemy ever getting in range of you.

It's...a trade that's probably better in some fights, worse in others.  (In assassination missions you don't care about other enemies hitting you back after you kill the target, of course; so if we're in an SCC where we're forced to pick one for the entire game, I can see the argument that you pick melee.  I feel like in "defeat all enemies" fights, though, I lean ranged unless the damage gap is stupidly large--which is to say, I mostly elementaled on the Geo SCC, but on the other hand I basically ignored Demi/Throw Stone on the Ch2-TM/and Squire SCCs).

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Sure, but Charge isn't always practical. In order to match Attack Up provided you have 12 PA already, you need Charge+4... an 8 CT attack. If your speed is only 8 due to it being a Twist Headband fight, and there are enemies who are speed 10, this is already untenable; the best you'll manage is Charge+3, and that drops to Charge+2 against enemies who move-wait first turn (which is usually the case for melee enemies). And then there's charging enemies (which includes several bosses) who just need to be killed right away, usually.

Charge gets bad at the end of Chapter 4, yes.  Charge is good in the earlygame.  In Chapter 2 you only need Charge+2 on a Geo to match Attack Up, and can usually get away with Charge+5 or Charge+7.  In Chapter 3 it's more like Charge+3 that you need to match Attack Up on Geo (and you can still sometimes pull off Charge+5/Charge+7 if you have them).

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The thing is, even as you noted before, Nameless Dance has diminishing returns, and you have one guaranteed non-Dancer even if we're going for four of them. So no matter what, you're reliant on something from the Geomancer tree

And no mater what, reliant on something from Thief, and no matter what, reliant on Archer.  But yes.

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to have a maximum-killing-power fighter running around dealing with the things which escape status and can threaten your party.  (I guarantee you the Dancer SCC would be waaay easier with this!)

Agreed.  Dancer is good against everything but singletarget damage.

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Archer deserves a mention here.  You will be using Charge, especially on assassination missions.  Doesn't really matter if your class is Geo, Archer, or Mediator here--if your plan A is to physically attack, you really ought to be using Charge.

So are you arguing that the #13 is archer? I'm not really convinced; Attack Up damage already gets pretty high, and Charge/Concentrate are both kinda situational in different ways, unlike AU which is a strict improvement, always, and Geo still has a much better carrier (bows still suck).

Nah, I'm more just thinking...if the optimal strategy is attacking physically with humans that aren't leaning heavily on absurd Invitation/Solution/Dance shenanigans, then Charge, Concentrate, and Attack Up are all very centralizing.  (And if you're leaning on melee, Move+2 is also very centralizing).

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(Still, to spoil things for the bottom of the post, I'm beginning to think it's the best competition. And that is a weird thing to confront.)

Well, right, obviously you lean towards physical attacks.

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Yeah, fair. (Although I don't think Move+2 is worth beelining to because there are other important things I need to grab... in jobs that don't have 40-70% of Geomancer damage at various points in the game. And under your definition of a dead job, it's still better to be in Monk than in Thief.)

If you're beelining, then you're beelining in Chapter 1, the chapter of 4 WP Knife (which means like 20 damage Thief with both genders--Geo, if you had it unlocked at this point, would be 20-25 damage depending on gender.  24-30 a bit later in the Chapter.  Monk is 36 Male/21 female, but with 3 move).

So...with females, Thief is...arguably their best Chapter 1 melee class.  Males...there are better classes, but it's going to be less painful to go Thief now than it ever will be later.

As for higher-priority stuff...what's higher priority at this point?  Chapter 1 Elemental is pretty meh (12 damage).  Rushing to dancer...Thief is on the route to Dance anyway (and again, you want to be done with Thief in Chapter 1, even with female).  There's no point in rushing to Mediator (no guns until Chapter 2).  The big thing you might want to rush to is like...Charge+5/Charge+7 to power-smash the early chapters.  Most other stuff can be delayed due to not being great until later, I think.

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-Attack Up being factored in for guns is a silent testament to what Geomancer is doing. You'll notice I have no trouble ignoring the sum total of Mediator's contributions to the game (faith lowering is the cool, but hardly necessary); the fact that you're having trouble doing the same for Geomancer strikes me as evidence for which class is overcentralising.

Eh?

1. I've said multiple times before that several classes right now obviously get used for certain things (Geomancer included).  I've had no hesitation saying that Attack Up is good and that you do get it (although you probably don't use it in every fight unlike Move+2).

2. If you want to talk about ignoring stuff that takes a little grinding, there's people who've done speed runs ignoring calc (the first few speed run attempts were Ninja and Summoner focused).  You absolutely don't need to spend some time with the party sucking due to being in calc to 0-reset FFT.  So...do you agree with banning calc before Ninja and Summoner, then, or do you feel it shouldn't be, because calc is perfectly ignorable?

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-Getting 1-2 speed faster isn't very useful for the most part here, given that chapter 3 enemies are rarely if ever more than 1 above even unboosted speed.

Eh?  It's pretty relevant.  Mediators can usually attack wait and doubleturn if they feel so inclined.  Admittedly, this usually isn't an option for Geos or Archers, who will usually need to move in order to attack.  Speed 6 is also disastrous in a few fights (Izlude, Velius).

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And as usual, if Geomancer desperately needs that point of speed, they can grab it; Mediator has no such recourse for a damage boost.

But...why would you use the speed boost Concentrate Geomancer if you have Mediator unlocked?  They deal the same physical damage, have the same speed, but one is range 1 and the other is range 8.

If you want unblockable damage, you class change to Mediator.  If you want high inaccurate damage, you class change to AU Geomancer.  (Now that I think about it...I'm actually not seeing Concentrate as being viable in this part of the game because guns are too damn good right now).

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I would contend that it is. All manner of inoffensive tactics at this point are suspect; they can miss (Dance, Battle Skill, much of Talk Skill)

I'm not convinced that stuff that can miss is bad.  Yin Yang Magic.   Teleport.  And hey, if missing is that bad, why would you ever use Attack Up over Concentrate in any fight where you have even a chance to miss?

Reliable vs unpredictable is an interesting debate to be had.  Obviously if it's a 1:1 ratio in average output, you take reliable.  How much more average value do you need to go for the unreliable move?  I would argue not that much.

Let's say you're choosing between a flail that deals a random amount of damage (100 average) and a sword that deals consistent damage, but less (80 damage).  I'd...probably pick the axe.  I'm open to arguments here, though.

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I'm not so much optimising melee damage as I am damage in general; it just so happens that, at most points, melee is too far ahead to consider and ranged must be relegated to a role of backup

Just talking classes here, not abilities...In Chapter 2 and 3 AU guns and Concentrate geos deal very similar damage.  In Chapter 1 and 4 melee is decently far ahead (although it's Knights that win Chapter 1, and Chapter 4 Geo is often the top damage but there's potential side competition from Excalibur, elemental guns, invited Dark Behemoths/Tiamats).

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It's hard to say which of us is right on the best thing to optimise, but my personal experience drawn from a variety of challenges I've done (including all the relevant SCCs in question), is that high damage is the best ward against being overwhelmed, especially when you lack healing and revival. Even Yin Yang Magic, the (non-Math) king of debilitation, would be substantially worse without an instant-kill status (effectively the same as damage) for speeding up fights in an emergency, and of course the immensely damageing Life Drain to deal with bosses.

Very good point, and yeah, thinking on that, I agree.  And that's actually a good argument against higher-speed lower-damage setups--if a fast unit dies, the rest of the party still only gets three turns to clean up.

OK, if things go wrong, the panic buttons are...

*High damage to kill the battle fast
*Invitation
*Excalibur's auto-haste only applies when you're alive, so your countdown timer in death is extra slow.
*If you can act-wait, you can gain 60 CT on dead people

That said, umm...if the focus is going to be damage, we should probably look at Dance's damage.

Nameless Dance actually -does- help you clean up--Frog and Sleep boost your physical damage.  Sleep in particular can let you get off a Charge+7.  Confusion tends to add some bonus damage either from an enemy knocking that person out of confusion, or the confused enemy hitting the closest target (which will almost never be you when using a Dance strategy).  Poison deals some small pittance of damage.  I don't think Nameless Dance is quite as much damage as a physical attack, but it's not like you're putting yourself way behind in terms of emergency cleanup capability.

Wiznaibus, however!  Wiznaibus deals...about 12 per hit in Chapter 2 (144-192 total damage per turn depending on the fight--216-288 on turns you 3x Wiz.  remember that competing damage numbers in Chapter 2 was like...50).  Later on, if you go for PA+7 equips, it's like 21 damage per hit (252-336 damage depending on how many enemies there are in the fight).  More if you brave-raise.  (This is generally more total damage than melee attacks).

Now, there's downsides to this--it's better to kill one target and have them no longer be a threat, than injure multiple targets.  And of course, in assassination missions, no! use singletarget.

But point is, even if the best tactic is "Damage Blitz", Dancer can actually play that game, arguably better than other classes (in defeat all enemies fights).

Not sure what class the Dancers use as a carrier in this scenario.  Possibly Archer, because any other class doesn't give them access to Charge for the post-dance cleanup, and because females appreciate the speed formula?  Mediator seems bad because of the 75 PA multiplier hurting Wiznaibus.  Geo...maybe; they have the PA for Wiznaibus blitz, but they're not a female friendly formula and don't have charge.  I'd have to run some damage numbers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 01, 2011, 07:59:16 AM
I've decided to focus my FFT energy on the playthrough at hand so I'll probably not respond directly to some of the points here for a while. Well, maybe a few!

So far I am up to Lenalia Plateau (just beat it, rather). Chapter 1 has been pretty tough because of the combination of lack of healing and lack of magic, but hey, there's a reason that Chemist/Priest/Wizard were all banned in the first half! If any of them were still around there would be a problem!

Knight is hardcore dominant early. Double the damage of Archer. Gap shrinks a little after you get Iron Swords + Longbows (although... the latter comes first) but Knight's durability is also quite useful. I was using Monk a lot because I wanted to unlock Geomancer... similar damage to Knight but way less HP. Generally I felt, especially for maps like Sand Rat Cellar, that I just couldn't afford to lose damage/HP.

My first goal was to get to Geomancer (shocking, I know); the one battle I had it for it made much easier. Really can't stress enough how useful having both ranged (ITE) chipping and an actual good damage option is (Charge makes it even better). Knight will probably still win chapter 1 in my eyes because you get it right away whereas Geo is actually a pain to unlock in the world without Gained JP Up, but there's no question Geomancer is better once you have it. Archer quietly chips in Charge+1 or +2, but is not a happy place to be for the most part if you're male (damage compared to knight is... 15 vs. 30 after Igros, 20 vs. 36 after Sand Rats; unacceptable) but this should close a bit in the last two maps due to Silver Bows plus them possibly starting to hit that PA point.

Possible mistake: I should perhaps have made my girls archers as soon as Longbows showed up (20 damage instead of 24-28 isn't so bad when you have range) but since they were already partly done Monk I figured I'd tough it out because Monk isn't getting any more pleasant to be in any time soon, whereas Archer is getting more appealing with better bows (and the Headgear in Chapter 2). However, it's possible them being in Archer could have saved me a reset.

The other five classes don't exist in Chapter 1 as far as I'm concerned. There's a slim argument to be in Thief if you're female but it's clearly the worst place to be; I'd probably rather put time in there when the game gets a bit easier due to options showing up.

Currently trying to decide exactly when to tackle the road to Dancer for the girls. Guys seem pretty simple, muck around Geo for Attack Up, then head to archer as bows close the gap with swords steadily for a while and pick up some charge skills and maybe Concentrate. The trip to Mediator looks intensely unappealing at the moment; I will probably want to resort to propositions there.

Any advice so I don't miss any "oh why didn't I think of that!" approaches to character building would certainly be appreciated!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: VySaika on August 01, 2011, 08:13:54 AM
That...probably is something to be said for Geo > Mediator in this. Getting to geo is only mildly painful, as there's still full access to knight, while getting to Mediator requires gaining jp in two dead classes. Dunno how much you're taking things like that into account though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on August 01, 2011, 09:06:46 AM
I mentioned it briefly to NEB while discussing this, but the immediate kneejerk composition I'd imagine is:

- 4 Male Geos (inc. Ramza) grab Move+2, alternate between AU/Concentrate as preferred, Weapon Guard/Counter Flood/Speed Save for mediocre reaction choice, set Charge as secondary
- 1 Female, beelines to Dancer, uses Wiznaibus/Nameless Dance in appropriate fights, swaps out to gunner Mediator (Charge+AU) in C3 when Mythril unlocks. Can also be the only high Faith char if you really want the elemental gun route (probably not even necessary) or Chantage recipient

Honestly, 6 move (7 if BB or Germinas) Geomancers with Charge should smash in most of the game rather trivially, it's relatively light on JP costs and class hopping... yeah.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 01, 2011, 03:00:10 PM
Quote
-This gun limit remains until after Grog Hill unless you take a massive, inefficient detour (risks 8 randoms) when Mithril Guns show up in Goug.

Something was bugging me about this, and I didn't work out what it was until after I posted last night.  There's one detour, ever, for guns.  Swords and bows have multiple detours that, if the playthrough is easy enough, I would totally skip.

*Lenalia Plateau checkpoint.  3 potential randoms.
*Lenalia Plateau checkpoint again at the start of Chapter 2 if you skipped it; you start at, what, Orbonne?  4 potential randoms.  (You do get some free swords from Gaffy/Agrias, though).
*Zirekile Falls checkpoint.  5 potential randoms, and you only have two fights until you get to Lionel anyway.
*Yardow Fort City checkpoint. 2-3 potential randoms, just for Platina Sword that will be replaced in 4 fights anyway

Not saying you should skip these detours or anything just...I did not find myself complaining about detours on the Mediator SCC.  There's a long detour, but only one.

(If I were to skip one of these it would probably be Yardow, just because of my playstyle I'm more confident using Move+2 AU gun users on Velius anyway.  Hmm...I just realized--if you're speed 8 against Velius and he uses Clops, you can land a Charge+1 before his spell finishes; not that big of a deal, but it is +24 gun damage with AU thanks to roundoff.  Geomancer...well no, you don't want to use speed boosting on Geomancer if you can avoid it, so the Charge+1 trick doesn't matter.  Archer......actually, 108 gems Archer is better damage than Mediator; less range, and the potential to miss if Velius acts weird and doesn't charge, but yes, they might want the Charge+1 pre-empt trick too; probably +16 longbow damage for them?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 01, 2011, 05:43:39 PM
Quote
*Lenalia Plateau checkpoint again at the start of Chapter 2 if you skipped it; you start at, what, Orbonne?  4 potential randoms.  (You do get some free swords from Gaffy/Agrias, though).
*Zirekile Falls checkpoint.  5 potential randoms, and you only have two fights until you get to Lionel anyway.

I usually skip these two, and am doing so this playthrough. For the rest... The first Lenalia Plateau checkpoint also nets you Silver Bows (and some armour if you're still using knight, and Bronze Shields if you... care) and is only +2 potential randoms on Chain Vests. Yardow checkpoint also nets you +30 HP from heavy armour. The Mithril Gun trek is... nothing but guns.

It's a valid point that a pure gunner army will have that as its one and only detour (though... you'll likely still make the Lenalia Plateau one because all of your main damage for the end of C1 comes from those two weapons) but I do think it still matters.

And of course, it's to the credit of guns that if you're going for a mix, you can probably get the guns you need through Invitation + the Grog Hill war trophy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 01, 2011, 06:51:08 PM
And of course, it's to the credit of guns that if you're going for a mix, you can probably get the guns you need through Invitation + the Grog Hill war trophy.

Hmm...point.  And...mixes may be the way to go.

In assassination missions I don't like using 5x melee (five party members; boss can only be hit on four sides, sometimes less if they stand against a wall so three sides; bunching up can be bad).  But I have no such objections to, say, a 2-3 melee-range split.

In "defeat all enemy" fights, dance seems like the real ultimate power anyway (even if it's just Wiznaibus, that will still often your highest overall damage when 6 targets are alive).  So...it's only critical to have optimized weapons on your non-Dancers.

(In super hard fights you'd optimize your Dancers' melees too but...one of the selling points about Dance is that you can grab any JP you want.  Want a bunch of Thief JP to steal stuff?  Thief with Dance secondary--almost painless by Thief standards!  Hell, want to never put your males into Thief but still want to get Move+2?  Have your Dancers chill in Thief for a few fights--Thief has PA so it's not much of a downside, and males need only 370 spillover JP on average; maybe 10 fights for one dancer to give your males enough spillover; 5 fights if you doubleteam it with two Dancers).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 01, 2011, 07:04:43 PM
Playthrough is up to Zaland! Currently debating when and how many people to send to Mediator; I think I want Ramza with a gun for the Wiegraf duel (not that there aren't other ways to win, but it's the safest?). Getting Attack Up and maybe an Elemental or two first (already have Hell Ivy since Hell Ivy rules), probably will make the trek shortly.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 01, 2011, 07:49:48 PM
I think I want Ramza with a gun for the Wiegraf duel (not that there aren't other ways to win, but it's the safest?).

Hmmm....

Well, Sing Ramza breaks that fight; I doubt you want to go all the way to Bard just for Wiegraf/Velius, but...yeah.

Non-Bard setups...

Mediator: Are you Capricorn?  Charge+5 AU gun from a Capricorn deals 168 damage to Wiegraf.  You need to deal...is it 269 to make him run?  Which means C+5, wait, Attack for 96 is........juuuuust short of dealing enough damage.  If you keep yourself CT-synced with him, though, then you can 2HKO (you do need to let him act twice for this--although with Move+2 he might not be in range turn 2.  If you're level 18, then equip Germinas Boots instead of Sprint Shoes and guarantee that he won't be in range turn 2).  Although, well, if you're level 18, you can also just go speed 9, shoot and run away first turn.

Geomancer: Concentrate Geo, if Capricorn, let's see...Wiegraf gets his second turn on clocktick 25, so if you're speed 7 then you can still Charge+5 him.  Which means, if you're level 18 by that point you can Chameleon, Twist, Bracer.  Which is...252 damage with Concentrate Charge+5 Capricorn.  Not enough to OHKO, and puts you in a bad spot (you could get countered and then killed on the next turn).

Attack Up Geo: With Move+2 do you have enough movement to run around behind him turn 1?  He tends to wave fist from three panels away, so...2 panels to walk up to him, 4 panels to walk around him.  YES!  Same level 18 plan (Chameleon, Twist, Bracer, Capricorn, Charge+5) gives...324 damage.  It...ends the fight, but doesn't actually drop him to 0 HP (he has 337 by the stat topic), so you risk getting countered.  Your HP is...170, so...Wave Fist (72 w/ good compat) + Counter (120 with good compat) = dead.  So...ok, bad plan.

Archer: Risks dieing from Lightning Stab crit.  Otherwise, I think Concentrate Archer is a lot like Mediator except I think they might deal the...5 extra damage needed to kill with C+5, wait, doubleturn, Attack.  (But only if level 18--below that and they can't get away with 108 gems).



Yeah, guns seem like the most sensible approach.  (Unless you're in the mood to Bard it up!)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 02, 2011, 10:05:13 AM
Compared to chapter 1, chapter 2 just basically got curbstomped. I only had two resets and both were extremely avoidable/the result of stupid mistakes on my part (although I won't claim my Execution Site team could have won 100% of the time, needed some luck with either getting through shields OR landing status with elemental... just not much. Also, luck would have been greatly reduced if I wasn't trying to keep moving forward with JP and using, e.g. a Lancer and an Archer).

Some notes:
-I've thus far been ignoring propositions, although Goug/Warjilis does exist for 'em. This is possibly a bit unfair, I dunno.
-I finished chapter 2 with dancer not yet unlocked. The girls have been basically doing nothing but working on Dancer prereqs, though of course they sit out about 1 in every 4 battles on average and of course sometimes I have to sacrifice their choice of class for the "must win this fight now" attitude (e.g. extra time in knight).
-Chapter 2 was, somewhat predictably, the Geomancer hype show. It's not a significant exaggeration to say that the optimum way to play this chapter is as a Geomancer SCC with Charge+1/2. Much of this is Elemental being very solid in this chapter (as you've hyped) but a good deal of it is also Attack Up and how good Geo is as a carrier right now (everything else does less with Elemental and deals less damage at melee, and... generally has less durability, and less move).
-Yeah the portion of the game before you get Move+2 practically is more than 25%. I'm just starting to pick it up now. No, it is NOT worth beelining too because you want to get Elemental first (5 range is good times) and a good support skill is also pretty important. I think we're both too used to assuming a metagame where Gained JP Up exists; everything is harder to unlock/get now.
-On the melee/range thing: I do use Elemental more than physicals, but on the other hand, the physicals do play a crucial role sometimes. There's little doubt that a Geomancer with elemental far outperforms an archer or gunner, for instance (and the archers also set and get reasonable use out of Elemental, it must be noted)
-But even when it's not doing damage, Elemental deserves some note for "makes any class more tolerable to just plain get JP in". Most of chapter 2 is easy so you can afford people in sub-optimal classes; the problem is that thief will be locked to melee or the "slows your JP gain rate by 40-50%" Steal Heart (and just getting that is a multi-battle delay to Move+2). However, it's not SO easy you can afford to waste many turns attacking each other, so Elemental gives you something that is always useful to do (even with loltastic MA, it's still 25% stop, sometimes GT). Hell Ivy is the only terrain I picked up until I started getting superfluous Geomancer JP, incidentally (then I started getting Kamaitachi or Carve Model on some people).
-Attack Up is winning out over Concentrate in a pretty big way. Part of this is that, with a few exceptions, enemy evade is fairly low, of course. But the bigger part is just accessability. Yes, yes, they both cost 400 JP... but Geomancer is just so much more pleasant to actually be in, and Charge creeps in as competition for that Archer JP (this second point of course does not discredit archer).

Only two battles had resets on them:
Golgorand: I had one because I forgot how to avoid the knights and got blitzed pretty fast by them. Second try I mostly just kited them.
Lionel Gate: Had a bit of a brain fart and forget that Gafgarion's Night Sword would, uh, heal him. Second try I just stuck Ramza in Geomancer so he'd reach the gate turn 2 and it wouldn't even matter. I'd still have won the first try if I hadn't missed something like half a dozen attempts to stop Gaf, or if my party had been five Geos instead of uh Archer/Archer/Thief/Lancer/Lancer (why yes, Rubber Shoes made me disrespect the fight). And really, that's sort of the story of chapter 2; its challenge (even the execution site's) is negated if you play it as a Geomancer SCC plus a little help, the only reason to really consider other classes is for later-in-the-game preparation.

Chapter 1:
1. Knight (PA, HP, swords)
2. Geomancer (Knight remix plus Elemental is a winning trade, but a bit too late for the top spot)
3. Archer (Charge. Bows are kinda okay after the halfway point, outright good for Zeakden)
4. Thief (... at least it exists)
5-8. Classes which are either impossible to unlock without grinding or massively suboptimal to unlock due to dead class traversing plus chapter 1 being hard.

Chapter 2:
1. Geomancer (Elemental, Attack Up, clearly the best carrier overall due to HP/PA/MA/move/equips)
2. Archer (Charge, possibly Concentrate. Bows are kinda serviceable)
3. Mediator (while I didn't personally unlock them until the end, you could, and Romanda Guns are nice, though pretty reliant on at least one ability from the above two since 36 is outperformed by Elemental)
4. Thief (provides Move+2. A bit of a JP sink and an awful carrier, though)
5. Knight (might look better if you banned Geomancer, but as is, a grossly inferior option. Entire skillset has been devoid of value so far, and they're no longer a good carrier)
6. Dancer (two chapters of inferior stats and don't really exist in Chapter 2 unless you grind)
7-8. Classes which are completely unreasonable to access in the current metagame at this point.

Chapter 1 finished at Level 5-6, Chapter 2 at 11-12, for the record. Current build plans involve Ramza picking up Charge but also having Invite (possibly switching over to gunner duty later, or alternating between that/Geo as needed), the male Geos focusing on Geomancer/Charge/Move+2 beatdowns, and the girls very close to getting Dancer (once they have that and the three key dances, they'll probably work on Mediator too).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 02, 2011, 11:38:46 AM
Mmm, right, I forgot about the lack of Gained JP Up for stuff like unlocking Dancer (I'm too used to that stuff just being done sometime in late Chapter 2).

Interesting note about Elemental being good even on Archer.  I would have expected more like...Steal Heart or Mimic Daravon (though I suppose you didn't have these).

How are you using your Knight JP at the moment?  Weapon Guard?  Hm, I guess non-mage WG blows right now (5% Coral Sword, 5% Mythril Gun, 10% Platina Dagger).  Or are you saving it for something else?  (Equip Shield on Thief?  Equip Sword on Thief/Priest?)

Out of curiocity: what was your Zigolis Swamp random enemy?

(On a Zigolis Swamp invite note...one thing that just occurred to me about Zigolis: in the non-random enemy slot it's a 100% chance for you to invite a Ghoul.  Then again, Yugo Woods is a 100% chance to invite a Revnant, which circumvents breeding headaches altogether.  And even if you don't get it there, it's a bad idea to charge forward at Poeskas Lake which leaves you alone with two Revnants at the start of the fight.  The game really wants to give you Drain Touch...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 02, 2011, 06:31:50 PM
No Mimic Daravon yet. Steal Heart... I learned with one person and... never used. That hit rate!

Elemental sees uses on Archer because (a) sometimes the MT is worth it, (b) sometimes more range, (c) sometimes ITE is worth it when you know the rest of your damage kills anyway. Overall it isn't exactly pinning ears back, no, but it's still a decent addition to the toolbox.

Knight JP I'm really not sure about. I'm sorta sitting on it in hopes that one of the Equip X abilities will be useful, or maybe I'll feel a certain Battle Skill could turn a fight down the line. I could buy Weapon Guard (it's not terribly crowded out yet because archer/geo want to spend JP on other things), and it's possible that at the end of the day, having +5% evade on most of my units may end up a better payoff than the Equip abilities, but for now I'm not ready to take that chance.

Zigolis Swamp random enemy was a Flotiball. I didn't have Mediator unlocked at that point anyway, though. (One reasonably could, certainly, if the invite lottery or resetting there was a high priority.)

*checks Drain Touch* 60+MA. Revenant MA is roughly 4.81+0.69*Level, so... 78.6% to 92.4% hit rate at levels 20-40, say (this can swing a bit with random MA of course)? Good zodiac can make that really shine I guess, for some boss-killing. You'll probably want to do a little breeding regardless, but it is quite an interesting boss-kill tactic if needed. I kinda doubt we're at the point where it feels worth it, though... and sadly, we may not hit it until Mediator is banned. A shame.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 02, 2011, 09:36:00 PM
Drain Touch is also MOD3, so the accuracy will go up if the target is charging (which will usually make it 90%-100%, I think?)

Altima is the fight where it really sounds like Revnants would help a LOT.
Hashmallum...meh; Hashy is so very smashable in a number of ways (Threaten/Solution, Magic Break, just ****ing blitz him etc).
Adramelk...maybe.  You get a free turn before he can move, and Revnants are handy against Dycedarg too (can teleport behind to avoid the shield; aren't as walled by Defence Up).
Zalera...maybe.  Zalera's not normally blitzable, but Revnants could probably swing it.  And...Revnants are undead, so Death Sentence is a positive status for them.
Velius...nah.  If you have Mythril guns, then you have a Velius script prepared.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 03, 2011, 07:37:59 AM
Chapter 3 finished. Stompstompstomp I thought this was supposed to be a challenge. Chapter finished at Level 20-21 (though the last two fight were of course too short to really change this... notably, I generally hit 18 around Grog Hill).

One reset to report, against ZALMO. Same reason as Lionel Gate, I had an absolutely horrid team due to trying to milk the battle for skills (Archers/Thief/Lancers). The Archers were supposed to be the kinda competent units but I totally forgot Zalmo has ARROW GUARD, lolspoiled. But yeah with an even slightly competent party (Geomancers, people with Mithril Guns, Dancers...) this would go down hard.

I tried to invite the Goland chemists, but due to bad luck I wasn't able to (first one had to die because he was a threat to Olan, the second was just an unfortunate critical hit killing him). This was kinda fluky, normally you'd be able to easily snag at least one gun here. I ended up making the Goug trip to buy 'em so that I wouldn't be disadvantaged by this. I reset a little to avoid some (but not all) fights. This was also the point I finally got Dancer (one of the girls got there from the Zalmo fight, the other right after). I only bought one because they cost a lot.

Izlude was minorly worrying because my archers missed four times in a row to start the battle (yes, yes, Concentrate hype!) and my gunner died fast but eventually I landed the hits I needed, combined with Dance, to not completely die.

In both the big Riovanes fights I made some pretty big errors but not enough, I just had too much firepower. I lured Velius to the wrong place so one of my Geos couldn't hit him, but when the other two did just shy of 700 damage between them (ps one of them was a girl) and Ramza does well over 200 before Velius' first turn it hardly matters. Did the fight with gunner Ramza, one other Mediator, and three Geos for the record.

Roof, I just didn't realise that the assassins could only be hit by one melee attack from each side before they moved. Didn't matter due to my two speed 9'ers and two naked PCs.

All other fights generally scanned as complete jokes, beyond Olan who can be frustratingly difficult to save (bows/guns both have serious problems reaching the top of the roof, didn't buy Blizzard) if he decides to be stupid. Yardow could have been okay except that by late Chapter 3 I was mostly done with my class monkeying and was actually in generally good setups (one archer was the main weak point and even it's okay there).

I could afford two Bracers, for the record. That, three Platinum Swords, five Power Sleeves, four Twist Headbands, two Sprint Shoes, a Chameleon Robe, and the aforementioned Mithril Gun were the major purchases of the chapter, though I also snagged a few extra swords/bows/Judo Outfits/Flame Shields. No propositions yet, still. At this point I'm going to stick to this; we can quibble with its effects later.

I started picking up Move+2 late chapter 2; by mid Orbonne, everyone except gunner Ramza had it. Reaction abilities are only finally starting to trickle in, mainly in the form of Counter Flood just for ease of getting; everything else either has a negligible effect or doesn't feel worth the time spent in an inferior class. My Dancers may end up with Arrow Guard since Archer/Geo are comparably good carriers for them; we'll see. Towards the end of the chapter I could finally start to pick up Concentrate, although it remains to be seen if it really justifies the time spent in an inferior class.

I don't really have anything good to say about Talk Skill. Faith monkeying has some uses I guess, we'll see if I ever care about mages enough for this to score points (for now, I'm not doing it), Mimic Daravon I basically only use when there's an obstacle in my way because it misses so often and I have crazy damage to lay into everything between AU/Charge/Swords and all that PA-boosting/Guns. Maybe it'd find a little more use without Dancer. Certainly I would if we got rid of our best methods of damage, but... not sure this will happen until both Geo and Archer are banned. As is, it gets the Steal Heart treatment (though I did finally use Steal Heart with my useless Thief in the Zalmo fight! Better idea: don't use Thief, and don't buy abilities that make you spend more time in Thief.)

Oh, and a serious "lol" at brave/faith raising is needed at this point. Bad internal compatibility is pretty clearly the way to go even if you decide to optimise zodiac at all (I don't anticipate ice healing to be very useful, but there have certainly been times when I wanted to take less from destatusing myself) and it makes the already terrible hit rates of Praise/Preach even worse. Not to mention there's so little reason to raise either (reactions are just... not a priority or impressive). If I'm wrong about how chapter 4 plays out I'll rescind these comments, but at this point I don't expect I will be.

Chapter 1 still by far the hardest part of the game! BAN KNIGHT? (Well, if there's any debate about Knight vs. Bard later on...)

Opinion of classes in chapter 3...

1. Geomancer (high-end carrier for basically everything, Attack Up still great even with competition in some fights, Elemental's niche compromised now but still the best skillset for a melee male)
2. Dancer (yeah, the mook smash is good, although chapter 3 is kinda boss-heavy which holds them in check a bit)
3. Archer (Charge is a preferred skillset unless you have Dance. Concentrate/Arrow Guard get it some very minor points)
4. Mediator (who cares about Talk Skill with this offence? Main use of the skillset is snagging a few guns. Of course, guns themselves are very solid, but very reliant on Geomancer/Archer and need an extra hoop or two to get, and gunners either have lower move/durability/bad primary OR give up the AU possibility)
*drop*
5. Thief (Move+2 and a big pile of garbage)
6. Knight (Light equips take off in this chapter, Battle Skill still sucks)
7. Bard (hahaha I guess you could open it by now but WHY)
8. Mime (is Mime)

The main remaining question I have for how to play chapter 4 is... do I even look at Bard? Maybe with Ramza? I don't see much reason for my males to bother with that side of the tree. If Thief were banned, the effort spent would easily be worth it, but as is... while I would like +1 move for my melee powerhouses, I probably can't justify it.

Really can't imagine anything shaking Geomancer's hold on #1 at this point, though. It has very clearly won to this point and the only way its competition can pass it is if chapter 4 is much harder than I expect (which might justify things like monster taming, elemental guns, or faith modification).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 03, 2011, 11:06:22 AM
I think if you're going to get Bard in this group of classes, you get it only with Ramza, and only if you can get it for the Velius fight.  (Which is to say, I have more respect for Sing than I do for Move+3).  Among other things, you've already passed the window when going through mages might not be too painful (chapter 2 when they have Knight-level physicals.  Chapter 3 when they get all their best elemental damage optimizing or can use Equip Gun to maximum effect).

Chapter 4...getting through mages with males in the least painful way possible is probably...Equip Gun and Charge.

Doesn't sound like you'll need to detour for any invite stuff, but I'd be inclined to leave a monster talker in the party (when you might be fighting monsters) just in case a golden opportunity comes to you.  Finath River can still spit out a Uribo, and there's a slim chance you might get into a random with Hydras or Behemoths.  Oh, and Balk 2: I've done Flame Shield, Rubber Shoes, Nameless Dance on him before, and the battle is just so absurdly under control that I doubt grabbing one goodie would be a problem.  (Grabbing two may not happen, though.  The moment you invite a Tiamat the clock is ticking: you might not be able to keep the AI Tiamat from ending the fight before inviting the Chemist).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 03, 2011, 03:37:14 PM
More thoughts on Move+3!

You prioritized Attack Up over Move+2, which means that you value +33% damage over +50%/+66% movement.

Bard gets you +1 movement, but usually in exchange for -1 PA from terrible PA growth.  If you're planning to be a gunner, that's a trade you'll happily take, but I can't see gunners caring so much about +1 movement.  If they're going to voluntarily suck, they'd probably rather grind for Equip Armor or Battle Skill just in case those are ever relevant.  (And they'd certainly grab themselves some reaction abilities before M+3).  If you're planning to be a melee Geo, though, the setup that cares about movement...then -1 PA is about an 8%-10% drop in damage, in exchange for a 17% increase in movement over Move+2.  Which is to say, very similar to the movement/damage ratios of AU to M+2.  (And note that for a geo this will drop their elemental damage by a similar percentage).

So...assuming you were correct to value Attack Up over Move+2, it's also probably correct to never get Move+3.

Quote
4. Mediator (who cares about Talk Skill with this offence? Main use of the skillset is snagging a few guns. Of course, guns themselves are very solid, but very reliant on Geomancer/Archer and need an extra hoop or two to get, and gunners either have lower move/durability/bad primary OR give up the AU possibility)

I would definitely default to Elf Mantle for gunners in Chapter 3.  They don't really need the move, especially if they're not planning on using Talk Skill.  (In fact, they should be always considering the option of "shoot, wait" and not moving at all).


Oh, one other side note: know what breaks the Adramelk fight?  Fly.  Adramelk will always run to his closest target, so if you hop between the upstairs and downstairs while everyone else hides in a corner (and hopefully shoots or something) then you can make him never take a relevant action.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 03, 2011, 04:09:55 PM
Good point about Elf Mantle. My only "true" gunner was also my only PC without Move+2 so of course I usually wanted the boots (3 vs. 4 matters even for gunners) but normally yeah, that'd definitely be the way to go.

EDIT: Oh, and

Quote
You prioritized Attack Up over Move+2, which means that you value +33% damage over +50%/+66% movement.

While it may be that I do (not 100% sure) I really need to emphasise that "spend time in Geomancer" is just infinitely preferable to "spend time in Thief". Though... of course you have to do both anyway. I guess this means I felt that getting Attack Up helped Thief more Move+2 helped Geomancer, at least (and this makes sense... Geomancer has elemental when out of range which is very powerful in chapter 2, and 4-5 move already so the percentage is on the lower end of what you listed, 40-50%).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 06, 2011, 03:25:19 AM
And chapter 4 beaten!

Jokerun - Is the jokerun. Snagged a Uribo. Ended up breeding a Porky by Limberry, which I imagine is very lucky? Didn't bother with Chantage though.

Balk 1 - So I decided to do this with five Ice Shields. Then I realised "hey I have ice brands, time to remove Counter Flood from everyone". So I do so. Unfortunately, what I don't notice is that, in Ramza's case, instead of removing Counter Flood, I removed Equip Shield. So the entire battle falls to pieces. Shockingly I still win pretty easily, offence!

South Wall - Not sure this was the right choice. Being blitzed is a little scary here. I pull it out though it would have gone better if everyone had Arrow Guard certainly (just... ugh to getting 450 -more- Archer JP, and there aren't many battles late enough that it feels significantly useful).

Sluice - Site of the one and only use of ice healing in this playthrough as I use it to ensure my Geo on the left survives a spell before one-shotting Shale/the head wizard back. I could have set up for this better like with White Robes/Reflect Rings on the left side probably but oh well.

Everything up to Elmdor - lol

Elmdor - I get one shot through Blade Grasp which really turns the tide. Otherwise I do badly at my abusing of this battle (fail to bait a Blood Suck, which results in only one Ultima to be redirected) but yeah, a little luck sees me through. Coulda been a reset.

Zalera - Super horrid luck on this one, Nightmare keeps causing sleep. I -should- have just Kamaitachi'd it away right away probably, since my team was set up for the fight excellently otherwise and I could afford the hit. As is I didn't do it until a desperation move late in the fight and ended up winning this on the very last clocktick.

Adramelk (1 reset) - I misjudge my offence against Dyce here (a fair bit of my team is bad zodiac with him, hadn't noticed) so my timed blitz of him falls short and he finishes someone off. I come a few clockticks short of outracing the crystallisation. Without this error I don't lose, second try was pretty easy.

Everything else until Altima - lol. I get a Tiamat from Balk (Flame Shield/Rubber Shoes/Thief Hat makes the fight easy). End up not using it, but could have; it would have torn Altima apart with the 999 damage off 550 HP and all. Rofel gets his weapon snapped, only other notable thing. I'd have won anyway but it was necessary for a one-rounding, I think?

Altima (1 reset) - I lose once because I try to keep Alma alive. This ends up killing Ramza. Second try I don't do anything so stupid. Sweep demons, break her speed, murder.

Thoughts on various things in chapter 4...

Knight - Excalibur is interesting. An excalibur knight is faster and more durable, but less mobile and generally less damaging (especially if he keeps Elemental over Charge) than Geo. That alone is kind of a push, but a few small things push the knight into the "worth using" category; the fact that he saves you a bunch of money (free Excalibur/crystal gear), the versatility of trading durability for power without being fragile, and Battle Skill being (gasp) actually useful against Zalera, Rofel, and Altima. Weapon Guard is also actually worthwhile for the Excalibur user. It's... still probably the least valuable of the six "real" classes in chapter 4, though.

Archer - Concentrate loses pretty decisively to Attack Up overall (analysis forthcoming) but it's still nice to have, Arrow Guard is pretty cool if you can stomach its cost, and a few charges help (nobody had more than 3 for me) and round out a good skillset for most. Not much else changed here; I kinda regretted not having bows against Rofel and Altima a bit maybe? But not much.

Thief - They have Move+2. Otherwise you run screaming. Still, it was nice to have +2 move without trekking over to Bard, so while it certainly isn't in the running for most overcentralising class, it does have a nice grip on one of the five slots (carrier, secondary, R, S, M).

Mediator - Guns definitely decline in value as the chapter goes on (nice for battle skill, pity my battle skiller didn't have Mediator unlocked! But that's only ~3 battles as mentioned). Tiamat is a pretty good "I win" trick against Altima, though. Persuade's a much weaker one, though it's there. (By the way, Revenants? Not so much, 160 HP just dies there, and no Angel Ring.) They're mostly about a host of minor tricks; my general feeling that they could just as easily be ignored at no major cost stands; puts you in a bit of danger against Wiegraf though.

Geomancer - They could honestly just coast on Attack Up being brutally important, but their 6 move + high power is pretty much the best way to just cut through most battles in C4 anyway (knight does end up providing competition, yes, but it's only competition, and only for one slot). Everyone except Ramza hit L8 in this, nobody hit it in any other job, as a note.

Dancer - Dance remains pretty cool, declining only slightly from chapter 3. Bad when you go into blitz mode, though, and of course the worst thing about it remains forcing females. Still, it's probably optimum to have one or two. The skillset also lets them gain JP anywhere really easily, always a plus, although all the time spent unlocking it instead of other things makes this less of one.

Bard - I can't say I really regret not unlocking it. As I keep coming back to, it would look much better if Thief were banned, and its main role is to stop Thief from overcentralising the movement slot utterly (i.e. I'm pretty sure if I carried these analyses to the end that thief would end up #18, since in the final four Kn/Th/Ba/Mi showdown, knight gets to rest on its laurels as workhorse while cheerfully settling for whichever of Move+2 and Move+3 ends up as unbanned)

Mime - AHAHAHAHA. Man I'm pretty sure I didn't get the 6300 JP needed for this the entire game!


On Attack Up vs. Concentrate:

Going through chapter 4 on my attack geos (so ignoring gunners and dancers), I tended to use either AU, Concentrate, or a mix. Generally speaking, looking back, you want Concentrate for people with shields or generics who are high-enough levelled to use mantles reliably, and AU for everyone else (as well as evasive-types who can be baited into charging). When a boss is present, the strategy which defeats the boss is of course optimum (you -may- take out randoms more optimally with something else, but the gap is usually negligible by comparison if you even bother, and plus you may be neutralising them with Dance anyway). Here's what this ends up looking like:

Doguola Pass: Mix
Meliadoul: Concentrate
Finath: AU
Zalmo: Mix
Balk 1: AU
Walls: ... mm, I'm still unsure which wall you should take, -and- what you should go for here... probably north and a mix?
Sluice: Mix
Germinas/Poeskas/Limberry Gate: AU
Elmdor: Unsure. Optimally you don't care.
Zalera/Adramelk: AU
Outside Murond: Mix
SK Trio: Doesn't matter (Kletian dies either way)
Zalbag/UBS4: Concentrate [EDIT: missed Zalbag]
Rofel: AU
Kletian: Dies either way (though if you got Elemental haxed or something, AU would win?)
Balk, Hash, Altima: AU (Balk has a mantle, yes, but he's not the threat; controlling the monsters is).

Ignoring Elmdor and Kletian, and calling the "mixes" half a point each, the score is 13.5 versus 5.5, before guns are in the mix. It's also worth noting that AU acquits itself much better in a hypthetical "ban archer" scenario since it pretty much always does -something-, while Concentrate just sits there useless (or near-useless) in any fight against charging enemies, monsters, pre-L40 archers, or others who lack evade.

Think that's it for now! Playthrough was pretty fun, final level going into the last battle was 34-35 or so. (Well one dancer reached 39 in the Altima fight, but... dance against L66 target.) Definitely not overall hard with the possible exception of chapter 1; most of my resets could be avoided.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 06, 2011, 06:15:59 AM
Hm interesting.

So...~2 resets for the combined Chapter 3-4.  But presumably would have been a non-issue with Chantages/Tiamats that you had the invitations for.  (Which is to say not worth resetting at Zigolis Swamp).

Although it is noteworthy that between Zigolis Swamp and Finath River there's a 56% chance of Porkies on any given run.



Ok, stuff that's adjusted in my thinking from this run:

Attack Up is a lot more centralizing than I thought.  Mostly due to Chapter 3, where...why would you ever use Concentrate when you can just use guns for good unblockable damage?  (And by extension, Concentrate is less centralizing than I thought).

Elemental is more centralizing than I thought.  I had not expected Archers to use elemental, for instance.

Monsters that aren't Tiamats suck.  I mean, I knew Tiamats were better than other monsters, but I thought maybe other monsters would show up on the radar.  No.

I had been thinking of the game as something like 75% mooks, 25% bosses (for the purpose of evaluating Dancers).  Wrong.  Chapter 4 is about 50-50 for assassinations/mooks.  Chapter 3 is also about 50-50.  Chapter 2 is mook-heavy, yeah, but you don't really have Dance for chapter 2.  So...this definitely adjusts my evaluation of Dance.  (Not that there aren't some boss fights where dance is really cool, like Balk and Zalmo, but they are the minority).  On the flip side, this boosts damage (Attack Up, Concentrate, Charge, Geomancer class, Mediator class, sometimes Knight!!!)

Invitation-based cheese--it happens, even when you're not trying for it.  Aside from the gimme Balk Tiamat (which you only get to use in two fights--hardly game-changing) it's about a 60% chance of something ridiculous doing mean things to Chapter 4.

So...ignoring the dance side of things (they don't seem to be a serious contender for centralizing due to too damn many bosses), I think it goes something like...

Chapter 1: KNIGHT!
Chapter 2: Geomancer (Elemental)
Chapter 3: 67% of the time: Geomancer+Archer (Attack Up+Charge; using various classes). 33% of the time: Mediator-Thief (Chantage)
Chapter 4 pre-Balk2: 60% of the time: Mediator (Chantage or small chance of Tiamat/E-Gun)  40% of the time: Geomancer (Swords keep getting better; guns don't.  Bows can, with effort, but they were not serious equipment before; also--three different anti-physical bosses who arguably call for Elemental blitz!)
Chapter 4 post-Balk2: Mediator (guaranteed Tiamat; level 50 Tiamat can...probably solo these fights?)

Potential Deep Dungeon: Dancer???  (Enemies tend to spawn a million panels away and be mooks, and frogged enemies are great when searching for exits).  Mediator is also increasingly important in a potential DD setting (Threaten-control; possible invite potential).

...Is roughly my overview of the game at the moment.  Feel free to make corrections!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 06, 2011, 06:51:36 AM
Realised I forget to note Zalbag in the support ability notes; he was a victory for Concentrate (and was actually counted as such, just I deleted him by accident)

Yeah part of the issue is that said Tiamat is Level 50 while most other stuff you'd run into is way lower. I don't know if it could -solo- Altima but uh you have four other units and they aren't complete garbage if you got that far. On the Tiamat note, though, it should be noted that with out at least one of the shield classes, inviting it is almost impossible... but that's three possibilities and we're concerned with overcentralisation, so.


I'm not really terribly convinced that the idea that "if a Uribo spawns, you will definitely catch it, and you will definitely walk back and forth between two locations for ages in order to get a Porky, you will breed more Porkies, go into a battle and poach as needed". Particularly for the one in Finath River, in the time it takes to do that I could probably complete the sluice with a team that decided to give this the finger. And I'm a little skeptical about the gains; Chantage is excellent, but remember we're warding off very much potential resets at this point, and Chantage doesn't ward off all of them, anyway. My views are probably coloured here since I tend to make Ramza Capricorn/Taurus (dat conventional SCC wisdom) and this is actually a really bad idea if you're planning on getting a Chantage (Altima tends to decide Ramza is a tasty target, etc.). Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is I'm certainly not willing to ignore the classes that let us easily complete the game every one playthrough in 3 we get a Uribo in Zigolis Swamp (let alone the 5 in every 9 where we meet one period).

Plenty of respect for that Tiamat though, never really thought about "lol 50% mHP breath attack on 550 HP monstrosity", probably because the Mediator SCC makes this strategy cruelly illegal. Mediator best class in the last two fights, yes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 06, 2011, 12:58:19 PM
In the event of Taurus/Capricorn Ramza in the Altima fight for a Cantage team, go Knight, drop his faith, use an evade focused setup (Excalibur).

If Altima decides to still melee Ramza, she's hitting 60%+ evade combined with Alma being set on protect Ramza by default, and Altima's asking to get Battle Skilled.  If Altima ignores Ramza, then you win (non-ramza crystallizations don't matter in the Altima fight).

Oh, and while you're at it, set up your Chantage users as bait, too.  Is one of your females Taurus/Capricorn?  You win.  If not?  Set them up with deliberately low HP, or in the Altima fight get all the demons to hit them.  You can even attack them with your own characters if you want Thief Hat for speed but it's giving you too much HP.  And if you're gradually replacing your team with level 1 females as you poach Chantages, then that's another good way to get low HP on your Chantage users.

As far as not bothering to breed/poach, I suppose that's fair as long as you're not doing propositions.  Notably, walking between dots probably takes more time than just resetting about two times at Zigolis.  Speaking of which, if we're taking this hardline approach, then propositions become a definite no, except for propositions in connected citie (Dorter-Orbonne) that you're passing through anyway.  All others risk a random when you're short on people.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 06, 2011, 06:29:48 PM
Though mmm, yeah:

Reset count is low enough to discourage any sort of Zigolis Swamp resetting nonsense.

Going by the percentages above, Geo is dominant for a larger percentage of the game.  (100% in Chapter 2, 67% in Chapter 3, ~40% in Chapter 4).  Compare to Mediator (33% in Chapter 3, 60% in Chapter 4).  It's about 2 chapters to 1;  Or, counting Chapter 4 as two chapters because it's so long, it's about 2.5 chapters to 1.5 chapters.  Either way, yeah, I'm now inclined to agree: Geomancer is the next to go.

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer

So...what now?

Support abilities: With Geo gone, the dominant support ability becomes......quite possibly Equip Gun I think.  Think about it--even on an Archer, guns usually keep even with bow damage, but they let the Archer wear a shield, and give the Archer more range.  And in general, it picks up where Elemental fell off--gives your Thief a range ability so that they can act.  Naturally, there's some competition...from Equip Sword, which you might want in some assassination missions.  Concentrate has definite uses too, although I think it might be the #3 Support right now, which is weird.  And obviously you might want a support for your Mediator, which would be none of the above (probably Equip Shield though maybe Equip Armor).

Movement abilities: Move+2 still dominates.  Although, with the best melee strategies being banned, Move+2 may be lesser in the priority list.

Reaction abilities: Arrow Guard is still good.  Weapon Guard is still good in the fights where Arrow Guard is irrelevant.  I don't think either of them are necessarily a high priority--Knight JP is now decently valuable.  Elfboy got to, what, Chapter 4 without learning a reaction ability at all.  Enemy archers are mooks, so the correct answer to them may be Dance.

Carriers: Mediator, obviously, gets guns by default.  Knight has the best un-supported damage in Chapters 1, 2, and 4.  Thief actually becomes a serious carrier (4 move, 4 jump, high speed mult, 100 PA mult)--using either Equip Sword (for movement and speed) or Equip Gun (for speed).  Archer is the other prime candidate for Equip Sword/Equip Gun, of course.

Skillsets: Dance goes up in value, as males had "well they can't Wiznaibus but at least they can elemental"--now dance is the only range damage move.  Charge is still quite good.  I'm not sure what you do if you want a range effect with an otherwise melee character and aren't female; Talk Skill I guess?  Mimic Daravon if you're not in range; Solution self if you're not in range to Mimic Daravon.  Seems like a much better range option than Steal.  And...honestly probably also far enough ahead of Sing that the competition isn't too serious.  Let's see...Archer uses Dance if female, probably Talk Skill if male.  Mediator uses Charge.  Knight uses Talk Skill or Charge depending on the fight and the setup (or Dance, obviously).

Monsters fail less now.  The correct answer to beat a few bosses might now be "hope that Boco bred some Red Chocobos".  (Notably: Elmdor and Rofel stand out as fights where choco meteor blitz should probably be considered).  (I'm actually half-tempted to put Boco somewhere in this ban list--obviously below Mediators, as Mediators can just invite another Chocobo; but I'm pretty sure Boco wouldn't be last on the list--lol Mimes).

So the top contenders are now...

Knight: Wins on both durability and damage in several chapters.  Dominant in Chapter 1.  You now actually probably want a decent amount of Knight JP.  Source of healing (which may matter more now that damage is lower).

Dancer: Dancers remain an elephant-in-the-room in that wow they trash...about half the fights in Chapter 3/4.  At what point does that become "too good"?  On the other hand, now they climb through a -lot- of dead classes to get to their destination, and that's not helping.

Mediator: Guns stand out more.  Talk Skill stands out more.  They still break the endgame.

Thief: They're suddenly a bit of a carrier class (how the hell did that happen?) and still carrying a very centralizing ability.  Although...power and relevance wise, I'm guessing it's Skillset > Carrier > Support > Movement right now.

Archer: Attacking has gotten relatively worse as a strategy with AU gone (compared to Dance, Talk Skill, etc) and that's never a good thing for Charge.  On the flip side, guns going up in value is a good thing for Charge.  Archer is also gaining more carrier roles--not to the point of dominance, but certainly to the point where it's non-painful to get Archer JP.

Bard: Meh.  I just don't think Sing cuts it yet, and Move+3 is still a crazy investment for a questionable trade (and M+3 doesn't at all like Thief becoming a credible carrier).

Mime: No.



So...this is a bit of a tangled mess.  Bard and Mime can be instantly discarded.  Thief I'm also inclined to discard, because the game has become more range-focused.  Dancer......gosh.  They're stompingly good in...50% of Chapter 3/4 fights.  This could arguably make them the most dominant in these chapters, but only in some playthroughs (in other playthroughs you win the invite lottery and get a Uribo).  It's very possible Dancer is #2, but I find #1 hard to argue as long as Mediator is in the ring offering grinding alternatives.

This leaves a mess of Knight/Archer/Mediator.  Knight brings damage (equip sword, Knight class) and durability (equip shield, Knight class).  Archer brings damage (Charge, Archer class) and durability (Arrow Guard).  Mediator brings range and accuracy (guns), durability (faith lowering), and sometimes invitation does ridiculous stuff to the later chapters.  Hmm...I'm not sure; I want to run some numbers on these.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 06, 2011, 07:38:38 PM
Quote
In the event of Taurus/Capricorn Ramza in the Altima fight for a Cantage team, go Knight, drop his faith, use an evade focused setup (Excalibur).

Yeah, and you can even Threaten/Power Break Altima if you want. Too used to the thief SCC where Chantage was definitely not a win there! But we'll just blame thieves. Complaints withdrawn, anyway.

Quote
Speaking of which, if we're taking this hardline approach, then propositions become a definite no, except for propositions in connected citie (Dorter-Orbonne) that you're passing through anyway. 

Personally, I was already assuming that as a matter of course, for the reason you said. So yeah, only proposition locations are Igros-Zeakden, Dorter-Orbonne, Warjilis-Goug, Goland-Lesalia, Zarghidas-Zeltennia, and very later on Goug-Gariland. Even those could be seen as questionable, but don't really take -that- much time so in principle I'd be fine with them.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 07, 2011, 03:37:05 PM
Quick correction to the Starcraft 2 table on page 5: I had the cost for Brood Lords wrong, so my cost efficiency calculation was way off.  (I copied the stats table from TeamLiquid into a spreadsheet, and didn't notice that the Brood Lord cost was just the morphing cost--ignoring Corruptor cost).

Actual Brood Lord cost efficiency (if they are being shot at and their broodlings are not): 0.12.  20% Above Mutas, but 20% below landed Vikings.

So um, yeah, Brood Lords need support against ground armies that can get close to them.  (Which, admittedly, few ground armies can).


In yet other games...I totally want to write about Dust 514, but can't due to NDAs.  <3 Dust 514, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 18, 2011, 03:56:51 AM
Starcraft 2, Economical 1-basing as Zerg.

So...when 2v2ing with Laggy, he sometimes tells me to "go econ Roach" (as opposed to 7RR).  I've spent some time thinking about what this actually means when on one base.

Notably...I was reading this:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=202464

By and large you can ignore the graphs and the minutae of the post--they're kind-of wrong.  But the relevant point is...if you're going for one-base econ, how do you do it?  The answer is an earlier pool (within reason).  An earlier pool gets you an earlier queen which gets you more larva, which gets you more drones, which makes your econ better.

Basically, an econ build probably means the fastest pool possible without ever sitting on 3 larvae.  Which turns out to be 12-pool.  The only reason to do a slower pool than 12-pool is if you're doing a speedling opening, in which case you do 13-gas, 12-pool.

Any earlier than that, and you start wasting larvae.  Econ 11-overlord-pool means sacrificing about 1/2 of a larva early on, in exchange for a queen 7 seconds earlier.  Econ 10-pool means sacrificing about 1 larva in exchange for a queen 28 seconds earlier.  (All numbers coming from in-game testing here--on Xel'Naga Caverns, 10-pool starts at 1:12, 11-over-pool starts at 1:33, 12-pool starts at 1:40).

But 14-pool is common in econ builds, you say--14 pool gets to build a couple of drones about 20 seconds earlier, which means it gets 30 extra minerals, which it can then spend on a Hatchery.  Spiffy.  But it doesn't get a drone advantage, just a 30 mineral advantage--when I'm planning on one-basing, I'll take the earlier queen.

So...11-pools, and 12-pools, do they do extractor tricks?

Answer: meh, whatever.  Seriously, my testing really wasn't conclusive.
On paper, 11-over-pool gets about 10 extra usable minerals from extractor tricking.  (maybe 20 extra minerals mined, -6 minerals from extractor cancel).
On paper, 12-over-pool is maybe 5 extra usable minerals from extractor tricking.  (maybe 25 extra minerals mined, -17 minerals from extractor cancel, and time spent not mining for one of the extractors if you don't plan to waste larva.  Alternatively, -18 from three extractor cancels).

In-practice, I did maybe 1 second better extractor tricking for 11-pool, and 1 second worse double-extractor-tricking for 12-pool.  They aren't really different builds strategically; number of drones/overlords before pool matters way more than how you got there.  12-pool wastes no larva either way (if done right--need to start the first extractor trick well before 150 minerals or you'll max out larvae).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 19, 2011, 06:04:25 AM
Messing around with Evolution Chamber now (the genetic algorithm for zerg build orders...).

Fastest route to...

5 Roaches:
8 Pool

10 Roaches:
11-Overpool, 14-Gas

20 Roaches:
11-Overpool, 11-Gas

40 Roaches:
10-Overpool, 14 Hatch, 14-Extractor, 30-Extractor (I...what?  You confuse me, genetic algorithm)

20 Roaches + Lair + Roach Speed:
13 Extractor, 15 Spawning Pool, 14 Extractor (Does it really take that much gas to get lair and one upgrade...?)

Hm, interesting; doesn't feel that informative, though...
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 20, 2011, 11:19:50 PM
Plants vs Zombies (Survival Endless)

So...it's bugged me a bit that the map of Survival Endless is fixed to the Pool map, notably because the pool lanes are very weak.  A lot of Survival: Endless players rave about how Glooms are the best thing ever, when the Pool really inflates glooms.  Allow me to elaborate...

Strategies often end up looking something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ2QQZzci7I

The pool lanes dedicated to stuff that will help the land lanes; the six pool Glooms, for instance, use AoE on the outside lanes.  The four Cob Cannons blast the outside lanes.  The pool sunflowers give you sun.  The pool Winter Melons are there for the AoE freeze+damage on the inside land lane.  Now stop and think--what else are you going to use in the forward pool slots?

Cob cannons?  The pool lanes may be super-easy, but they're not quite that easy.  (For all that yes, there are crazy Chinese setups with 16 Cob Cannons that actually do use these spots for Cobs, and just nuke dolphins constantly).  Twin sunflowers and sleeping freezies are also options--and yeah, you might do those, but then you need to place your offence elsewhere.

Which got me thinking--I know there's some hack that lets you play survival endless on other maps; how does that metagame shake out?

A brief google search turns up some stuff from Steam forums:

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/7200/anotherday.png

The basic idea being to keep the middle three rows bombarded with Cob Cannons, and then kill the outside two rows with Gloom Shrooms.  But this is just some random guy on Steam who never managed to get the build particularly sustainable.  The most advanced Plants vs Zombies players tend to come from China, where....

http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=673175483
http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=671412511

8 cobs seems to be the answer (8 cobs going 1000+ flags, it looks like).  Notably this also covers a big weakness of the 3 cob build above (Gargantuars can throw their imps onto the 4th row, so cobs need to be placed on row 5/6, not 4/5).  It also has a clever way of sneaking cobs into the back rows.

The back two rows are in danger of being killed by digger zombies; the "standard" solution is to throw two Glooms in row 2 (which help kill imps as well).  And just do a little bit of repairing when needed.  Specifically, plants have a random wake-up time when they could start firing (something like 0-2 seconds), digger zombies spend a certain amount of time dizzy after they're done digging, which is shorter than the max wake-up time.  With two Glooms, they only get a rare nibble, easily repaired.  With three Glooms they'll never even get a nibble.

Now, with three cobs in back, it's not actually possible to cover them all with three Glooms.  The middle one is covered (four Glooms, in fact).  But the sides are not.  ...Which is where the Torchwood and 2x Split Peas come in.  If you watch him playing, he doesn't even pay attention to the digger zombies--they just auto-die.  (I have some concerns about Imps blocking the Split Pea shots a small percentage of the time, but it seems to be rare enough).

Now, those of you who've played some endless have probably spotted a gaping hole in this plan: where's the Umbrella Leaf?  There isn't one--the player just substitutes excellent APM and timing instead--constantly nuking the basketball zombies.  (Insert joke about Asians being genetically gifted with APM).

"But mc", you say, "if this is all about proving that Gloom isn't all that, then why does this player have 8 glooms?"  Well...6 of them are rear defence; glooms being one of three plants that shoot backwards, it's pretty natural in this role (and I don't think any sane person would argue Starfruit or Split Pea are better than Gloom in Endless).  The two in the front though...

The two in the front are interesting.  Here's why I suspect they're there.  Gigas have 225 HP.  The player can cob once on fast zombies, and twice on slow zombies (like Gigas) before they reach the front line.  That leaves an extra 25 damage to deal.  I think Melon Pults will actually have more DPS in this role, but they lack consistency--if everything in the Melon Pult's row is dead, it won't continue to blindfire and splash the surrounding rows.  Gloom, however, will continue to fire.  The only other plants that will continue to fire in that situation are...Threepeater and Starfruit, neither of which are really serious options (neither gets AoE).  So...sure, since you only need to deal 25 damage (and probably less than that because there are Winter Pults which should usually deal 20 or so; so like...8 damage) then yes, Gloom for the slightly better consistency.

But wait, China provides another fascinating build:

http://hiphotos.baidu.com/%C6%BD%D4%A8/pic/item/c6e28307e5a1b15503088134.jpg

The top two rows can take care of themselves, more or less (Zambonis will probably give fits to the firepeas, granted).  What's interesting is that there's no digger defence.  I haven't seen a video for this one, but I would guess that perfect regular timing on the Cob Cannons on the bottom three rows kills the digger Zombies while they're digging and still moving with the rest of the pack.  I know it can be done, I just wasn't aware that 5 cobs per 3 squares was enough to keep the Diggers constantly killed.

And there's also this one:

http://hiphotos.baidu.com/%C6%BD%D4%A8/pic/item/9ad2be42c5bd0a3f9213c60e.jpg

Flawlessly protected from diggers and basketball zombies.  But it's only 6-cob and needs to nuke both sides.  My guess would be that the extra walking space allows for three nukes.  Either that, or the extra walking space allows the Winter Pults to keep up.  It's also clever in that since the Cob Cannons nuke a 3x3 area, they're double-covering the middle three rows, which means that the middle row can squeeze in some sunflowers.  What I don't know is how this deals with Imps thrown by Gargantuars onto the fourth row (eating the Cob Cannon).  Maybe the player is just careful not to deal too much damage to Gargantuars so that they always walk far enough forward that lobbed imps hit the third row?

Anyhow...Night and Day are basically the same map.  Fog is basically Pool except annoying.  Roof is...

http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=669766721

Apparently like Night/Day except that there are no digger zombies ever, and Imps land on row 4/5 instead of row 3/4.  (Which...looks easier, other than that whole "if you want more than five cobs, you need cobs in row 6+7")  Which...on the whole sounds a lot more straightforward in terms of "here is the ideal setup" --although less forgiving with all the front row pumpkinless plants.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on August 21, 2011, 07:10:13 AM
Night is not quite the same map as Day, since you will have gravestones forcibly upending your expensive plants, and will probably have to reserve a plant slot for the gravestone eater.  So you'd need more Sunflowers in your setup to be able to afford the constant replacement, and a much greater chance of randomly getting screwed over entirely.  It'd probably be the toughest endless map, actually.

That said, more seriously, I am childlishly amused at the Google Translate translation of the linked webpages.

* For boutique operations have objections to it on their own study of the Friends of the video, above, I Tuisan the
* Finally, you are not a shameless grab a couch, playfully down
* Meow a microphone harmony you 2 you O death
* You can separate the four guns hair, I will rosy, Keke this gun is already a mature 8 to moldy. . . . . .
* As long as there is love, What kind of roof wind

Good stuff.  Chinese is hard for computers!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 21, 2011, 03:06:16 PM
Um, from the PvZ wiki:

"In Survival: Night and Survival: Night (Hard) if the whole lawn is filled the plant will be removed, and a grave placed there instead. However, if there is even one empty space on the right half of the lawn, the grave will not remove the plant."

So...doesn't sound like it should be an issue.  You weren't going to fill the whole lawn anyway--if you do you'll just be flattened by Zombonis/Gargantuars.

The sun drain, though, yes, is absolutely an issue.  When you only have two twin sunflowers, a decent percentage of your sun comes from the day.  And yeah, grave busting isn't free, and probably is still something you want to do (since Zombies spawn from graves, and you need the space).

As for Google translate, I'm guessing it has trouble with text that's full of gamerspeak shorthands.  Like...if I were to say "I six pooled and Snow went proxy two gate", most English speaking people would have no idea what I just said (even though a majority of DLers probably understood that sentence just fine).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 22, 2011, 04:13:05 AM
Hmm...a bit of semi-sorta stat topicing for Plants vs Zombies:



"Fast" recharge plants (Sunflowers) take about 7.5 seconds to reload.

"Slow" recharge plants (Potato Mines) take about 30 seconds to reload.

"Very Slow" recharge plants (upgrades, Cherry bombs) take about 50 seconds to reload.

Cob Cannons take 40 seconds to reload.

Potato Mines take 15 seconds to arm.

Sunflowers produce sun right away, and then once every 24 seconds after that.

The normal attack cycle for peas, etc is once every 1.5 seconds.  The normal attack cycle for catapult type plans is once every 3 seconds.

A normal zombie crosses a square in 7.5 seconds (which is to say, they get hit five times by a pea in the time it takes them to walk one square).

Sun Shrooms grow large after 120 seconds (which means you spend 25 less initially, but get 50 less sun back over time, assuming a night level, which means Sunflower has a 25 more sun return on investment overall).

Sun Shrooms when they go big, and twin sunflowers when they are upgraded maintain the same old sun production schedule.

Butter seems to freeze zombies for about four seconds.

Kernel-pults fire butter approximately 25% of the time.  (I'm not entirely sure on this number, just statistical testing; it's also possible they've been buffed slightly, as they were slightly higher in-game than they were in youtube video I checked).

Which brings me to stats.

Peashooter:
Damage per tile: 5 (10 with Torchwood)
Self-defence tiles affected: up to 9
Other tiles: none
AoE: None (1x1 with Torchwood, dealing 5 damage)

Repeater--same as above but
Damage per tile: 10 (20 with Torchwood)
AoE: None (1x1 with Torchwood, dealing 10 damage)

Gatling pea--same as above but
Damage per tile: 20 (40 with Torchwood)
AoE: None (1x1 with Torchwood, dealing 20 damage)

Threepeater (Peashooter but hits three rows)

Cabbage-Pult (Peashooter with minor differences; ignores screen door shields, hits scuba zombies, but doesn't combo with torchwood)

Kernel-Pult
Hmm...ok, so one Kernel-Pult on its own is not interesting at all.  It has a DPS that's 62.5% of a Peashooter.  When being shot at by a Kernel-Pult you'll spend about 33% of your time buttered.  All of this comes together to make it about...94% of the damage per tile of a pea shooter.  That's...actually quite a bit better than I had guessed, anyhow.  With two Kernel Pults, it's now...

(1 - (0.75^2)) + ((((0.75^2) * 1) / 3) * (1 - (0.75^2))) = 0.51953125

So 52% of time that you spend buttered.  Now the damage per tile is 130% of a pea shooter.  With three kernel-pults it becomes...

(1 - (0.75^3)) + ((((0.75^3) * 1) / 3) * (1 - (0.75^2))) = 0.639648438

So 64% of the time that zombies spend with butter on their head.  Now the damage per tile is 174% of a pea shooter.

That said, there is a fundamental flaw with singletarget snare effects when combined with low DPS.  If there is, say, a single bucket-head zombie advancing on three plants, then yes, triple Kernel-Pult will perform better than triple pea shooter.  However, if there is a bucket head zombie spawning once every 30 seconds, three pea shooters will handle that much better than three kernel pults, because they have the DPS to handle that much HP spawning on a regular basis.

Melon-Pult
Damage per tile: 10
Self-defence tiles affected: up to 9
Other tiles: up to 18
AoE: 3x3 (dealing 5 damage per tile)

Melon-Pult is kind-of nuts.  Singletarget it's a Repeater that costs more; not remarkable.  Multitarget it's got a massive AoE.  It's kind-of mind boggling how this costs less sun than the Three-Peater: it also hits three lanes, defends itself better (even with torchwood the damage per tile is the same, the AoE damage is the same but area is larger, and anti-pea plants don't apply).

Winter-Pult (largely same as melon-pult, but also does MT freeze)
Damage per tile: 20 (factoring in snare)

Yeah, know how I said singletarget snare was kinda questionable because it only slows the frontmost enemy while the back enemies catch up?  Multitarget is really good.

Puff Shroom
Damage per tile: 5
Self-defence tiles affected: 3
Other tiles: none
AoE: None

Puff Shroom is kinda broken, because it costs 0.  Although yes, it's otherwise pretty sad.

Fume Shroom
Damage per tile: 5
Self-defence tiles affected: 4
Other tiles: none
AoE: 1x4

Somewhat evangelized by the Survival endless types (and hey, I use them in Survival Endless as well) these are...honestly unremarkable.  One of these can't hold off a conehead zombie on its own (28 HP vs a maximum of 20 damage dealt over four tiles).  You can handle conehead zombies with like...four rows of Fume Shrooms, but such a setup still won't stop a single bucket head zombie from walking up and eating the first Fume Shroom.

I mean, Fumes are handy when your entire plan revolves around AoE and you want to AoE forward, but past that....

Scaredy Shrooms (Peashooter minus, but at least it's cheaper...on some maps)

Gloom Shrooms
...are a little different.  Instead of firing every 1.5 seconds or every 3 seconds like every other plant in the game, they fire every 2 seconds.  The end result is...
Damage per tile: 15
Self-defence tiles affected: 1
Other tiles: 7
AoE: 3x3

Gloom Shrooms are funny; it's a lot of damage, but it's hard to use because they need to be near the zombies, but they also don't defend themselves (a single gloom is slightly better at self-defence than a single Puff Shroom--in that Zombies with more than 15 HP can walk up to either one just fine, but at least the Gloom will kill the Zombie faster once the Zombie is already eating the Gloom).  If you can make enemies ignore the Gloom's row and walk alongside it instead, though (garlic, for instance) then Glooms are great; 45 damage to a normal-speed zombie as they walk past those three tiles.  (By comparison, Fumes are like 20 over all their tiles, Torchwood-Gatling...if it always hit the same spot instead of moving with the enemy pack would be 20, and similarly Watermelon would be 10 to one row...well technically 15 if it constantly blindfired on one spot).  So yes, if you can get enemies to go right past it without actually attacking it, then it's amazing.

Cobb Cannon
Damage per tile: 19 (although Cob Cannons are basically two plants, so I guess I should cut that in half to 9)
Self-defence tiles affected: up to 9
Other tiles: ALL OF THEM (45, I guess?)
AoE: 3x3

Cob cannons are good, because you pretty much always take advantage of the full 3x3 AoE, so that's like...27 AoE damage per lane if you constantly bombard one area.

Chomper
On paper, if they eat a solid diet of full health football zombies, they're doing good damage (2 DPS; compare to repeater's 1.3 DPS).  Realistically, it usually doesn't work that way.

Cattail
Damage per tile: 10
Self-defence tiles affected: up to 9
Other tiles: ALL OF THEM (45, I guess?)
AoE: no

Cattails are more of an earlygame thing, but they're revoltingly good in the earlygame role; cover every row?  Sure.

Starfruit
Damage per tile: 5
Self-defence tiles affected: 0.2 (where it does deal 10 damage per tile, to be fair)
Other tiles: behind, diagonally up/down, and to the sides.

Starfruit is deceptively a lot worse than it looks.  A lot of people see them and think "ok, so it shoots in odd directions, but I'll just use masses of them and they'll shoot to cover each other".  And yeah, this works, but it isn't actually good; if you pay close attention when doing setups like this, you'll notice most plants are only hitting one target, especially if they're towards the top or bottom of the screen, or towards the left.  At that point...may as well use the Pea Shooter (or Split Pea if you need to deal with Digger Zombies).  More cost-efficient.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 27, 2011, 08:05:13 PM
SC2 tests

Laggy had been saying that Hydras are cost effective against Marines if the Marines don't have any upgrades.  The argument being that Hydras have lots of damage and range and Marines lack HP.  So...I decided to test this.

Hydra (w Grooved Spine) vs Marine

Hydra x 10, Marine x 30:
Marines win with 17 Marines remaining.

Well...maybe that's not enough units; there weren't so many units that there could be two rows firing.  Let's try more....

Hydra x 20, Marine x 60:
Marines win with 26 Marines remaining.

Hydra x 30, Marine x 90:
Marines win with 26 Marines remaining--This is with zero micro, however; if the marines step forward so all of them can shoot at once....

Hydra x 30, Marine x 90, with Marine Micro:
Marines win with 52 Marines remaining


Ok, what about cost disadvantaged situations for the Marines?  After all, we could go by something other than mineral cost + gas cost.  Maybe we should go by...supply!

Hydra x 5, Marine x10:
Marines win with one (heavily damaged) Marine remaining.

Hydra x 10, Marine x 20:
Hydras win with two units remaining.

Hydra x 20, Marine x 40:
Hydras win with 7 units remaining.

Hydra x 40, Marine x 80
Hydras win with 17 units remaining.  Although...again this was without micro.  With micro...

Hydra x 40, Marine x 80, with Marine stutter step forward micro....
Marines win with 26 units remaining.

I tried to do the same micro the other way around, but really, nothing Hydras have is better than A-move.  For some reason when I try to stutter step with them, more than half of the marines live; it's weird.



Oh, and while I'm at it:

20 Hydras vs 20 Stalkers:
Hydras win with 3 units remaining

30 Hydras vs 30 Stalkers:
Stalkers win with 5 units remaining.

Granted, yes, one Stalker does cost slightly more than one Hydra.

35 Hydras vs 30 Stalkers:
Hydras win with 13 units remaining.

Hm, weird, pretty large swing there; re-test.

30 Hydras vs 30 stalkers:
Hydras win with 11 units remaining.
30 Hydras vs 30 stalkers:
Hydras win with 3 units remaining.
30 Hydras vs 30 stalkers:
Hydras win with 10 units remaining.
30 Hydras vs 30 stalkers:
Hydras win with 2 units remaining.

60 Hydras vs 60 Stalkers
Stalkers win with 2 units remaining.

1 Hydra vs 1 Stalker:
Mutual destruction (they literally both die!)

100 Hydra vs 100 Stalker:
Hydras win with 21 units remaining.  (retest: Hydras win with 10 units remaining)

Hm, interesting.  On the theory that Hydras pack more densely--that doesn't seem to be the case.  Observing how they line up, it's about 14 or 15 on each side in the unit tester map, so they're very similar size; Stalkers seem to have a harder time pathfinding to open spots in spite of their higher movement, though.


Other units...

Marauders: are mildly cost effective against Hydras, even without stim.  (6 Marauders for every 5 Hydras).  Notably, equal numbers of Hydras beat equal number of un-stimmed Marauders, but if you have the 6:5 ratio it usually tips towards the Marauders.  Even when it was 60 vs 50, which you wouldn't expect because Hydras are packing more densely.

Immortals win in equal-supply fights, and lose in equal-cost fights.  That said, Immortals upgrade better, and do win if both sides are fully upgraded.

One queen beats one hydra (unmicroed).  Multiple hydras beat multiple queens, at least off-creep.

Reapers (with no upgrades) are cost efficient against Hydras.

Unmicroed red flame Hellions are cost efficient against Hydras.

Hydras are cost-efficient against unsieged tanks!

Hm, a comparison that laggy requested but went offline...

80 Zerglings vs 20 Zealots, unmicroed (with all upgrades except Protoss Shields):
Zerglings win with 29 Lings left over

80 Zerglings vs 20 Zealots, unmicroed (all upgrades):
Zerglings win with 27 Lings left over

80 Zerglings vs 20 Zealots, unmicroed (no upgrades except speed and charge):
Zealots win with 7 left over
Second run, Zealots win with 4 left over

So...it depends on the crackling upgrade, really.

Back to Hydras!

Hydras are...cost effective against Banshees?  Whuh?

30 Hydras vs 18 Banshees:
8 Hydras survive

Umm...let's run that one again

30 Hydras vs 18 Banshees:
4 Banshees survive

10 Hydras vs 6 Banshees
5 Hydras survive

Moving on....

Brood Lords are weird.  In a small enough fight (18 Hydras vs 5 Brood Lords) Hydras can win, but only if microed properly (in particular, it seems to work best to alternate between killing a BL, and cleaning up broodlings).

Battlecruisers seems...oddly slightly Hydra favoured, as long as they shoot at their targets (so...stutter step forward if there's enough BCs so that the Hydras in the back can shoot).

Carriers...seems to be probably Hydra favoured (without micro they just kill all the interceptors--although granted, not if the interceptors are set on auto-build).


Hmm...shorter ranged units.

40 Hydras beat 12 Ultralisks
(With like...2 Hydras left).

40 Hyras lost to 60 Chargelots
(With 34 Zealots left over)

40 Hydras lost to 240 Cracklings
(with 127 Zerglings left over)

40 Hydras lost to 240 Speedlings
(with 113 Zerglings left over)

40 Hydras lost to 240 Slowlings
(with 86 Zerglings left over)

40 Hydras beat 15 Archons
(with 13 Hydras left over)

While I'm at it...
10 Archons vs 160 Cracklings
Cracklings....win!  (0/0 upgrades on both, mind you; Archons probably upgrade better?)

10 Archons vs 40 Chargelots
(Zealots win with like...23 Zealots alive).

10 Colossus vs 200 Cracklings
Cracklings...win! (With like...5 left)

10 Colossus vs 50 Chargelots
Zealots win with 26 units alive

The moral of this story is: Surface Area?  What's that?  (Unless you're up against Blue Flame Hellions, in which case, yes, 20 Hellions without micro beat Zealots/Zerglings just fine).

EDIT:

5 Hydras vs 9 Infested Terrans (the number you can spawn when you have a freshly hatched Pathogen Glands Infestor group of equivalent cost):
Infested Terrans win with 2 remaining.  (They lose if they need to hatch in front of the Hydras, though).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 28, 2011, 06:42:27 AM
And more testing:

Hellions, in sufficient number, are cost effective against just about everything on the ground through simple "run up to their face and AoE them" micro.

With a few exceptions.  The exceptions are...

Thors
Collosi
Ultralisks
Archons
Roaches
(And sort-of Sieged Tanks; Hellions beat Sieged Tanks in low numbers; it's the reverse of how they normally work).

Marines are similarly ridiculous.  Stim, Combat Shield Marines, in sufficient number are cost effective against everything but...

Banelings
Hellions (including red flame Hellions)
(Sort-of Siege Tanks; only when there are a lot of Siege Tanks).
(Sort-of Colossus; only when there are a lot of Colossus).

And...hmm, let's test Colossus for fun.  Colossus in large numbers (10) are cost effective against everything but...

Marauders
Thors
Zerglings
Ultralisks
Zealots
Immortals
Sieged Tanks

Hmm...a mmuch longer list than I imagined.  OK, let's match stuff against 20 Tanks...

20 Sieged Tanks are cost effective against everything but...

Zealots
Ultralisks

While we're at it...

10 Thors are cost effective against everything but...

Marines
Siege Tanks
Zerglings
Roaches
Ultralisks
Immortals
Zealots

The interesting exclusion from this list being Marauders, which get just barely 2HKOed if they stim (and are lame without stim).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Monkeyfinger on August 30, 2011, 08:09:06 AM
Air unit vs ground unit calculations in SC2 are pretty tough because of the fact that the air units can ball up and all fire, or focus fire even, without impediment. Ground units:
- Struggle to get into a good firing position if terrain features or buildings are near the fight
- Struggle similarly if the unit counts are big, as they trip over each other

With banshees in particular the building thing is a big problem. What cost efficiency hydralisks and marines normally have vs. banshees is easily ruined as they march single file through a mineral line or a row of barracks into a formation of banshees that's firing from range 6 in perfect unison. (Stalkers have blink and warp in so it's a lil easier for them)

This is why queens are much worse practical AA than the raw stats suggest. They're fat as hell and they're slow even on creep so that means positioning and microing them is impossible if the guy controlling the air units knows where to put them and hard even if he doesn't. Compounding this problem is their durability-over-damage setup which means that a hurt banshee/mutalisk/void ray can just pull back a few feet and queens go fucking spastic trying to do anything about it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 02, 2011, 12:40:24 AM
Quote
Air unit vs ground unit calculations in SC2 are pretty tough because of the fact that the air units can ball up and all fire, or focus fire even, without impediment

Well right--this was true in SC1 as well.  What I meant was more...in SC2, Banshees are cost effective against some ground units; like...in equal cost quantities, Banshees beat Stalkers.  This is without cliff abuse, without the fact that they ball better than land units ever could.



Anyhow, my weird revelation of the day is: Ultralisks are really weird.
They apparently have a "frenzied" ability that lets them move while fungal growthed, move while being hit by strike cannons, be immune to mind control.  I'd say something about countering infestors, except they probably can't handle it if the infestors summon a bunch of infested Terrans.
In the mean time, something that hadn't really registered with me--they have the third biggest gap between damage to armoured and damage to light.  Beaten only by Immortals and Blue Flame Hellions (and they will no longer be more extreme than Hellions post-patch due to the blue flame nerf).
Oh but wait, there's more.  Thors deal more singletarget DPS than Ultralisks, even against armored (so much more that Thors win the 1v1).  You might not expect this because Thors have 7 range and hit air, and don't absurdly specialize in one damage type.  But uhh...yeah.  Thors.  The only thing Ultras have going for them when compared to Thors is movement speed and splash damage.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 18, 2011, 08:07:15 PM
How units have changed since SC1

For this, I will assume that the marine un-stimmed firing rate is the constant.

Marine:
HP: 37% increase
Stim HP: 50% increase
DPS: ---
Stim DPS: used to be 33% better
Cost: ---

Firebat/Reaper:
HP: --- (although they used to have 1 armor)
DPS to Light: 29% increase (but loses splash and stim)
DPS to Armored: 129% increase (but loses splash and stim)
Cost: used to be 33% better
Range: Increased from 2 to 4.5

Missile Turret:
HP: Increased by 25% AND gains 1 armor
DPS to Armored: Increased by 20%
DPS to Light: Increased by 140%
Cost: used to be 33% better

SCV:
HP: used to be 33% better
DPS: used to be 74% better

Siege Tank:
HP: 7% better
Sieged DPS to Armor: 3% better
Sieged DPS to Light: 43% better
Unsieged DPS to Armor: 70% better
Unsieged DPS to Light: 104% better
cost: used to be 10% better.  Also, supply used to be 50% better

Drone:
DPS: used to be 19% better
Range: used to be 2 instead of 1

Zergling:
DPS: used to be 52% better
DPS after Adrenal Glands: used to be 70% better

Mutalisk:
DPS: 13% better

Hydralisk:
DPS to armored: 24% better
DPS to light: 149% better
Range: +1
Cost: used to be 50% better.  Also supplu used to be 100% better

Spine Crawler/Sunken Colony:
HP/Armor: ---
DPS to Armored: used to be 34% better
DPS to Light: 24% better
Cost: 17% better

Ultralisk:
HP: 25% better
DPS to Armored: 75% better (and gets splash)
DPS to Light: used to be 33% better (but gets splash)
Cost: used to be 25% better.  Also, supply cost used to be 50% better


IMPORTANT NOTE for Protoss units--shields counted as both Light and Armored (they took full damage to both concussive and explosive).  This makes all SC1 Protoss units less durable when faced with typed damage.

Dragoon/Stalker:
HP: used to be 13% better
DPS to Armored: used to be 20% better
DPS to Light: 20% better

Zealot:
HP: used to be 7% better
DPS: 5% better

Photon Cannon:
HP: 50% better
DPS: 1% better

Archon:
DPS Biological: used to be 31% better
DPS Mechanical: used to be 83% better

Dark Templar:
DPS: 14% better
Cost: used to be 11% better

Carrier:
You know, I can't actually find the cooldown of SC1 interceptors on the internet.  Laggy's stat topic says that the cooldown is 30, though, so I'll go with that.
DPS: used to be 5% better
Armor: used to be 4 (instead of 2)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 28, 2011, 01:58:28 PM
Star Jewelled:

I'd really like to stat topic this up, get stats for all the units and good stuff like that.  For now, I'll at least document the in-game UI which tells the "costs" and the "counters"--which I actually have not found documented elsewhere on the internet.

Zealot 50:
Strong: Roach Hydra Immortal Ultralisk
Weak: Mutalisk Banshee Colossus
(Dies to storm)

Roach 75:
Strong: Ghost, Hydralisk, Colossus
Weak: Zealot, Mutalisk, Banshee, Ultralisk

Hydralisk 100:
Strong: Mutalisk, Banshee, Immortal
Weak: Zealot, Roach, Colossus
(Survives one storm at low HP)

Ghost 100:
Strong: Mutalisk, Banshee, Hydralisk
Weak: Roach, Siege Tank, Immortal, Colossus
(Dies to Storm)

Mutalisk 200:
Strong: Zealot, Roach, Siege Tank, Immortal, Colossus
Weak: Hydralisk, Ghost
(Dies to Storm, melts to cannons)
(Apparently Marines either don't shoot Mutalisks, or deal no damage to Mutalisks; weird...)
(I've read that they're supposed to have Glaive bounce, so work better than Banshees against groups, but I haven't noticed it if so).

Banshee 250:
Strong: Zealot, Roach, Siege Tank, Immortal, Colossus
Weak: Hydralisk, Ghost, Mutalisk
(survives one storm)
(Deal a lot more damage than mutas against single large targets like Colo/Ultra)

Siege Tank 300:
Strong Against: Structures
(Siege Tank dies to one storm if it's sitting still for the whole storm, not if it's moving)

Immortal 300:
Strong Against: Structures
Immortal Hardened Shields blocks two attacks

Colossus 500:
Strong: Zealot, Hydralisk, Ghost
Weak: Roach, Siege Tank, Immortal, Ultralisk

Ultralisk 500:
Strong: Roach, Siege Tank, Immortal, Colossus
Weak: Zealot mutalisk, Banshee
(Ultralisks deal ridiculous amounts of damage to other Ultralisks.  If your opponent is bad and doesn't cast spells, but spams ultras, the best counter may well be Ultra+Warp Cell)

Warp Cell: 150 (Disables target for 15 seconds)
Time Bomb: 200 (AoE 50% speed within bubble, lasts 12 seconds)
Heal Wave: 250 (Heals 300 HP, bounces a MAX of 4 times)
Storm: 300 (deals 100 damage, lasts 4 seconds)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 29, 2011, 01:22:17 AM
I stopped playing StarJeweled when the ultimate strategy became clear: Stockpile energy, then release 3 Ultras at once, then stick everything into Storms to support them.  (Or Warp Cells if your opponent goes Ultras as well).  Storm is just stupidly overpowered; there seems to be a lot more strategy if Storm costs double.  Take banshees for example; interesting unit, has counters, and counters Ultras...  except...    a single Storm pretty much ruins a Banshee.  Catch some nearby marines and you have parity.  If you ever release 2 Banshees or more, they tend to stack up, so you're now just donating points to the coming Storm.  Zealot / Roach / Hydra / Ghost / Muta are all nearly worthless except as a way to use spare change thanks to Storm, too.

So, yeah.  1 Banshee to force a Storm and maybe scare Ultras, 1 Siege Tank or Immortal if you have the advantage and want to blow a cannon, and then Ultra spam.  Although the Ultras only work if you do the stockpile energy + release simultaneously approach, since otherwise you die to Warp Cell.  Make Warp Cell cost 250 and Storm cost 600, and I'd totally be interested in StarJeweled again.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 29, 2011, 02:24:20 AM
Ok, tried to get a real read on unit HPs.

Marine- 2 cannon hits
Banshee- 8 cannon hits
Mutalisk- 6 cannon hits
Zealot: 4 cannon hits
Hydralisk: 6 cannon hits?
Roach- 9 cannon hits
Ghost- 5 cannon hits
Tank- 5 cannon hits
Immortal- 15 cannon hits
Colossus - 25ish cannon hits?
Ultralisk - 35ish cannon hits?

I'm fairly certain that Cannon damage is unchanged--which is to say, one cannon hit is 20 damage.  This seems to line up with Storm dealing 100 damage.  So...this puts my best estimates for HP at...

Marine: 30
Zealot: 80
Roach: 180
Hydralisk: 120
Ghost: 100
Mutalisk: 120
Banshee: 160
Tank: 100
Immortal: 300
Colossus: 500
Ultralisk: 700 (doesn't line up with Heal Wave's description, since Heal Wave heals more than half an Ultra's HP.  Possibly there's armor in the mix here?  Possibly my HP estimates are a little high?  Possibly it's due to zerg units having some passive regen--I suspect Mutalisk is actually 100 HP, and just regenerates the 1 HP required to survive a storm/five canon hits)

And yes, Hydralisks, Mutalisks, and Banshees all survive one storm.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 29, 2011, 02:35:58 AM
I stopped playing StarJeweled when the ultimate strategy became clear: Stockpile energy, then release 3 Ultras at once, then stick everything into Storms to support them.  (Or Warp Cells if your opponent goes Ultras as well).  Storm is just stupidly overpowered; there seems to be a lot more strategy if Storm costs double.  Take banshees for example; interesting unit, has counters, and counters Ultras...  except...    a single Storm pretty much ruins a Banshee.  Catch some nearby marines and you have parity.  If you ever release 2 Banshees or more, they tend to stack up, so you're now just donating points to the coming Storm.  Zealot / Roach / Hydra / Ghost / Muta are all nearly worthless except as a way to use spare change thanks to Storm, too.

So, yeah.  1 Banshee to force a Storm and maybe scare Ultras, 1 Siege Tank or Immortal if you have the advantage and want to blow a cannon, and then Ultra spam.  Although the Ultras only work if you do the stockpile energy + release simultaneously approach, since otherwise you die to Warp Cell.  Make Warp Cell cost 250 and Storm cost 600, and I'd totally be interested in StarJeweled again.

It's funny--talking to Laggy he claims that Storm is overcosted.

As for Ultras, they're good, but they mostly force a warp-cell from the opponent, and then act as a meat shield.  If your main goal is meat shielding, then Roaches exist.  You can buy 6-7 roaches for the cost of one Ultra, and the roaches are certainly more HP to chew through.  I dunno--I usually open with a pair of Ultras to test the waters, but if someone on the other team is competent, they'll get warp celled, probably a Banshee or two will get made, and I'll usually give up on supporting them and just switch to a harder-to-counter strategy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 30, 2011, 02:37:11 PM
I need to do full starjeweled damage tests (read: I would like a volunteer to test with me because this is really hard to test against the computer), but Ultras seem very typed in their damage.

Like...I think they're somewhere in the range of 15 damage to light, and somewhere around 75 damage to armored.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 04, 2011, 03:40:09 PM
Posting these here in case I decide to continue calculating logarithms by hand for fun.

Quote
the_rowan posted...
You can't really find a decimal value without a calculator or memorizing tables.

You can; I mean logs have been around since the 1600s. Obviously someone had to make the log tables.

Here, let me start grinding some stuff out by hand.

2^10 = 1024, which is really close to 10^3

therefore
10 * log 2 ~= 3

therefore
log 2 ~= 3/10 = 0.30
(actual value: 0.3010...)

3^2 = 9, which is close to 10.

Therefore
2 * log 3 ~= 1
log 3 ~= 0.5
(actual value: 0.4771...)

Or, and admitedly, I didn't calculate this by hand:
3^21 = 10,460,353,203

Therefore
21 * log 3 ~= 10
log 3 ~= 10/21 = 4.76 (and that I did calculate by hand)

Log 4 = 2 * log 2 ~= 0.60
(actual value: 0.6020)

log 5 = log 10 - log 2 ~= 0.70
(actual value: .6990)

log 6...well I could just add the log of 2 and 3 together, but I cheated a little on log 3, so let's see...

6^1 = 6
6^2 = 36
6^3 = 216
6^4 = 1296
6^5 = 1300*6 - 4*6 = 7800 - 24 = 7776
6^6 = 7777*6 - 6 = 46662 - 6 = 46656

Ok, I don't want to compute much further by hand; the one that looks the most useful at a glance is 6^3 = 216

3 * log 6 ~= log(200) = 2 + log 2 ~= 2.3

log 6 ~= 2.3/3 = 2/3 + 0.1 = 0.76666...
(actual value: 0.7781)

Log 7...

Right away, 7^2 = 49 ~= 50 jumps to mind.

2 * log 7 ~= log(50) = 1 + log 5 ~= 1.70
log 7 ~= 0.85
(actual value: .8451)

Log 8...

Log 8 = 2 * log 2 ~= 0.90
(actual value 0.9031)

Log 9...

Well...I did cheat a bit on the log 3 stuff, so let me go back and use the log 6 result to re-calculate log 3.

log 3 = log 6 - log 2 ~= 0.77 - 0.30 = 0.47
(Actual value: 0.4771)

Which means...

Log 9 = 2 * Log 3 ~= 0.94
(Actual value: .9542)

So there you go: all the one-digit logarithms hand calculated to *almost* 2 digits of accuracy (I was off by 0.1 in a couple of places--3, 6, and 9. Damn you multiples of 3 *shakes fist*).

Actually, let's see if I can get a better estimate on log 3/6/9. I know 12^2 is 144. I know the square root of 2 is 1.41.... So...without even calculating it, I know that 12^4 is going to be pretty close to 20000 (closer than 216 is to 200, anyhow).

4 * log 12 ~= 4 + log 2

log 12 ~= 1 + 0.30/4 ~= 1.08
(actual value 1.0791)

Which gives us...
Log 3 = Log 12 - Log 4 ~= 1.08 - 0.60 = 0.48
(actual value: 0.4771)

Log 6 = Log 12 - Log 2 ~= 1.08 - 0.30 = 0.78
(actual value: 0.7781)

Log 9 = 2 * Log 3 ~= 0.96
(actual value: 0.9542)

Arg, nooo, I'm still off.

Wait, 81, is pretty close to 80.

2 * log 9 ~= 1 + log 8 ~= 1.90
log 9 ~= 0.95
(actual value: 0.9542)

There--now I've gotten estimates for every one-digit logarithm that's accurate up to two digits. All calculated by hand. Yaaay.

Quote
So, an inquiring reader might ask, how would I go further? How would I get, say, three digits of accuracy? And how, without looking up on the internet, would I know that I had three digits of accuracy?

Ok, let's cover accuracy first.

You'll notice that when we were very close to powers of ten (2^10 = 1024) that we were quite accurate. Notably, 1024 is only 2.4% away from being 10^3, and 0.30 is actually even more accurate--0.34% away from being log(2). We can predict this with a good degree of accuracy using Calculus.

The derivative of Log( x ) at any one point is...well Log( x ) = ln(x) / ln(10), so the derivative is 1/x * 1/ln(10). I don't even need to know ln(10) here, just that it's somewhere between 2 and 3 (cal it 2.5).

So, this means that at x = 1000, the slope is roughly 1/1000 * 1/(2.5) = 1/2500. Going 24 away from this, we'd expect the answer to be off by 24/2500, or ~0.01. And indeed, log(1000) = 3. log(1024) = 3.0103. (Actually...we'd actually be freakishly accurate here if we had a better estimate on ln(10) than 2.5. My initial plan had just been to show that we could get a pretty good guess on the error, but this might be worth pursuing...).

Man, I was going to go calculate the square root of ten, cube root of ten, etc by hand, but now I'm tempted to screw that and just get a really good estimate on log(e), and trusting in the power of calculus. Well...square root of ten is still going to come in handy, and is honestly probably easier to calculate by hand than e.

Ok, square root of 10, let's do this!

Pass 1:
3*3 = 9
4*4 = 16
First digit is 3, second digit is small.

Pass 2:
3.1*3.1 = 9.61
3.2*3.2 = 10.24
Second digit is 3, third digit is largish.

Pass 3:
3.17*3.17 = 3.1*3.1 + 2*(3.1*0.07) + (0.07)^2 = 9.61 + 2*(0.217) + 0.0049 > 9.61 + 0.43 + 0 = 10.04
3.16*3.16 = 3.1*3.1 + 2*(3.1*0.06) + (0.06)^2 = 9.61 + 2*(0.186) + 0.0036 = 9.61 + 0.372 + 0.0036 = 9.9856
Third digit is 6, fourth digit is smallish.

Hmm...well, let me state up front that I'm not going to calculate the fifth digit because this is becoming a pain, so that lets me cut a couple of corners here
3.163*3.163 ~= 9.9856 + 2*(3.16*0.003) ~= 9.9856 + 2*(0.009) ---- (Nope--too big. That's adding 0.018. We're looking for 0.0144)
3.162*3.162 ~= blah blah + 2*(3*0.002) ~= blah blah + 0.012 ---- (Yep, that's better--closer to the 0.0144)
(Fourth digit is 2, fifth digit looks small)

So to four digits of accuracy, sqrt(10) = 3.162

Ok, how much of a pain is it going to be to compute e?

e = sum( 1/n! ) from n = 0 to infinity
e = 1 + 1 + 1/2 + 1/6 + 1/24 + 1/120 + ...
~= 2.5 + (20 + 5 + 1)/120 = 2.5 + 13/60 = 2.5 + 1.3/6 = 2.5 + 1/6 + 0.3/6 = 2.5 + 1/6 + 0.05 = 2.55 + 1/6 ~= 2.55 + 0.16667 = 2.7167

The next term is 1/720, which we can totally ballpark as roughly 1/700 ~= 0.0014. So...that brings us up to 2.7181

The next term is 1/5040, which we can totally ballpark as roughly 1/5000 ~= 0.0002. So...that brings us up to 2.7183

And the term after that is going to be too small to register at 5 digits of accuracy. Bam, 5-digits of accuracy on e. That was remarkably painless. Man, four digits on the square root of 10 hurt more than that.

Ok, just a ballpark, though, I'm going to take it back down to 2.7.

e^2 ~= 4 + 2*(2*0.7) + 0.49 = 4.49 + 2.8 = 7.29 ~= 7.3
With three digits..
e^2 ~= 7.29 + 2*(0.02*2.7) + something_tiny = 7.29 + (0.108) ~= 7.4

Well, at very least this gives us a very rough bead. We know to a good degree of accuracy, that log(8) = 0.90, and log(7) = 0.85, so let's say that log(7.4) = 0.87. That means log(e) is pretty close to 0.435, which in turn means that ln(10) is pretty close to 1/0.435.

And...I don't really feel like calculating 1/0.435 right now.  Stupid long division....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 05, 2011, 04:59:54 PM
Back to Starjeweled for a bit.

Things I see in the metagame:

Ultra Ghost
Ultra Hydra
Heavy Banshee
Heavy Muta
Mass Colossus
Mass Hydra
Mass Ultra
Siege Tank Ghost
Mass Zealot
Mass Roach
Immortal+whatever

Some of these are reactionary (Zealots, Banshees, Mutas, honestly Roaches too).  So...let's cover the plan A.

Siege Tank Ghost is just awful.  all your units die to Storm; I've beaten teams that had 50% more energy production and went this combo.  I've lost because my teammate kept trying to force this combo when we were slightly outproducing the opponent.

Mass Hydra is interesting--they take low damage to Ultras due to being light, they tend to spread out and thus not get all caught in the same storm, and don't die to one storm anyway.  Colossi are easily frozen.  The best response I've found is Roach+Storm.

Mass Colossi is weird because it loses to an equal number of Ultras.  That said, if it does get a decent energy advantage, it becomes hard to break.  Sending a wave of two Ultras just doesn't do much to five Colossi.  Air is probably the best counter if you get behind, but it doesn't work as well as it does against Ultras, because the air needs to run forward and expose itself to the full army, and sometimes defensive cannons.  Otherwise, equal Ultras, gogo.

Mass Ultra: counter with Banshees; be ready to storm Ghosts/Hydras, or heal-wave if they storm the Banshees.  You might also want to counter with Muta Banshee, just because it spreads things out.  Also acceptable to counter with mass zealots, and freeze the ultra just as the Zealots arrive (yeah, Ultras deal low damage to Zealots, but they still have no HP and don't like AoE)--this is counterable with Storm, though, and the zealots will die fast if they have Ghosts.

So hmm...that's my intuitive feel of the metagame right now.

Notably, yes, Ultras are good, but there is a rock-paper scissors still; I'm kind-of down on Roaches as a rule--the point of them is usually to tank, but they tend to get stormed, they're not good against mass colossi, and they take ridiculous damage from Ultras.  Ultras tank better, even if they have less HP for the energy, just because they're not vulnerable to storm.  I'm definitely feeling pretty negative towards Siege Tanks and Immortals.  Immortals do take three storms to kill, but they also stand with the rest of your army that is often getting stormed anyway.  Siege Tanks die to one storm, and are just all-around awful if they're getting hit.  Ultras do the job of "I threaten to kill your canons quickly so you'd better have a response" anyway.

Just my current gut reactions.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2011, 04:14:28 AM
A fun trick someone just quoted at me.

If you are given a percentage growth per year, say 7% per year, you can get an approximation of the doubling time by doing 70/percentage, so in the case of 7% per year 70/7 = 10 years to double.  (Actual value: 10.2 years to double).

So...why does this equation work, and where does it break?  What we have is...

(1+p)^n = 2

Taking the log of both sides:

n * ln(1+p) = ln(2)

And here's where the approximation comes in--using a linear approximation for ln(1+p), we get ln(1+p) ~= 0 + p

n * p ~= ln(2)

n = ln(2)/p

ln(2) = 0.693 ~= 0.70.

And where does this break?  Since we're just doing a linear approximation around ln(1), it breaks far from ln(1).  So, for example, increasing by 70% per year is well short of doubling every year (more like doubling every 1.3 years).  It's also noteworthy that 69.3 is higher than 70.  For example, the approximation would tell us that increasing by 1% per year gets you to double in 70 years, but the actual time to double is actually 69.6 years--less than the estimate (whereas when the percentage is low, we slightly overestimate).

Which leads me to wonder, what's the tipping point when they are exactly equal?  So...

0.7/x = ln(2)/ln(1+x)

1+x = e^(ln(2)/0.7*x)
1+x = 2^(10/7*x)

Umm...yeah, as far as I know there isn't an algebraic solution to something like this.  Fortunately, there are numerical solvers on the internet, like Wolfram Alpha.

x ~= 0.019838

Which is to say, the 70/oercentage equation is closest to perfectly accurate around 2%.  Let's say we want to change that--let's say that our most-common use case is more like 5%, and we want to use something like 71/percentage, or 72/percentage; what's the exact value then?

Q/0.05 = ln(2)/(ln(1.05))

Which is to say, the correct value to use would be 0.710334954.  Or rather, that multiplied by 100 for percentage purposes, so 71.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2011, 03:46:55 AM
Ok, you know, I'd really like to drill down and finish the FFT ban list.  Last time you joined us, things looked something like this:

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer

Remaining classes are Thief, Knight, Archer, Mediator, Dancer, Bard, Mime

Let's drill down and get some damage numbers for assassinations, as those proved important in the past.

Chapter 1:

Knight (36 or so)

Chapter 2:

Knight (56 or so)  Although Equip Sword Archer is similar, and Equip Sword Thief with Power Wrist instead of Battle Boots is also similar.  I want to say Thief is probably the best of these due to having the option of 5 move, and unlike Priest, 7 speed is usually fine and acceptable on a melee fighter.  Depends if you want shields, though.

Chapter 3:

Archer/Thief with Equip Sword setups (about 110).

Chapter 4:

Archer/Thief with Equip Sword setups (168, although Knight is ~160 with Ice Brand).


Breaking this down a little further...

Chapter 1:

Bows deal ~20, so swords are a 75% improvement.  (Charge+3 is a 50% improvement).

Chapter 2:

Guns deal 36 so swords are a 55% improvement.  (Charge+3 is a 42% improvement).

Chapter 3:

Guns deal 64, Bows deal ~72, so swords are a 52% improvement (Charge+3 is a 27% improvement)

Chapter 4:

Crossbows deal 120, so swords are a 40% improvement (Charge+3 is a 21% improvement)


So generally, the gap between guns and not guns is bigger than the gap between Charge and not Charge.  Although there's a couple of caveats: with both Guns and Bows you can raise your speed without dropping your damage, effectively upping your damage per clocktick.  Additionally, against enemies with evasion, obviously guns ignore that (whereas you can't use both Concentrate and Equip Sword on the same unit.  Concentrate Knights are possible, though, and only significantly less damage in chapter 3).

Also in the favour of charge is that it's usually best to use a mix of melee and range, however (3-2 split or so) as it's often not possible to hit a boss from 4 sides.

So...for boss smashing, swords and Charge are the important abilities.  All four of Thief/Mediator/Archer/Knight are worth considering for stats/equips.

Oh yes, I said I would stick Chocobos somewhere on this list due to Boco (presumably somewhere below Mediator for obvious reasons).

Chapter 2:

Choco Meteor is 44

Chapter 3:

Choco Meteor is 68

Chapter 4:

Choco Meteor is 100

...Yeah, given that they don't charge...non-Tiamat monsters still suck.  Red Chocobos get pulled out against anti-physical bosses like Elmdor and Rofel, but that's it.  They can't even play the Geomancer game of having both ranged chipping and melee smashing, because Choco Meteor outdamages their melee until like...over level 30.  (And black chocobos aren't a credible option.  They have 33% more physical damage than reds...but reds have 39% more speed, and therefore more physical offence anyway.  Combine this with how reds prefer magic offence, and have 70% more HP, and...yeeeah).


Onto mook smash.

Dancer wins, so very, very hard.  All the other Mook smash got worse--Attack Up Mythril Gun lost Attack Up.  Elemental and then clean up with melee lost Elemental.  But...Dancer also is stuck as female, and stuck going through a lot of dead classes now, and not on the radar for boss smash, so it's going to be hard to be overly centralizing.

Ok, so for the non-females, what are the setups?  I'm not so hot on pure-melee setups against mooks--melee often can't get in range turn 1, and often doesn't want to rush into range even if it can--that's asking for an early death timer.  So basically, past about Chapter 1, all anti-mook setups must have range.  Most of the time, this is going to mean you're either using Talk Skill as your secondary, or you're equipping a gun or bow.  This is...actually quite Mediator-dominant, given that whole "guns are better than bows" and "the best Archer support for most of the game is Equip Gun, not Concentrate".

There are some alternatives.  Steal for Steal Heart (although...Steal Heart is mostly useful on females, and females will have Dance, so...yeah.  Even if it could hit either gender, Mimic Daravon is arguably better anyway).  And there's...Sing.  Cheer Song tends to be better than waiting on spot.  Life Song is some minimal healing.  I'm still really skeptical about Bard, though.  I think Cheer Song is an upgrade over Mimic Daravon, but it's a marginal one for such a long detour.

That said, there are a couple of notable exceptions to "Don't use pure melee for mook smash".  As Elfboy noted in his playthrough, Knight is the best class in Chapter 1 (there are no guns, and the damage gap is larger).  In Chapter 4, Ice Heal gives you something great to do when out-of-range, and more to the point all you have to do is sit around and ice heal while the Dancers win you the fight.  Add to this, Chapter 4 is when guns drop off significantly in power (less than half of Knight melee damage).


So...to summarize.

Assassination missions: Mostly Knight/Archer for the majority of the game.  (With guest appearances from Thief, Mediator, and on rare occasions Red Chocobo).
Mooks: Knights in Chapter 1. Mediators in Chapter 2.  Dancer Mediator in Chapter 3.  Dancer Knight in Chapter 4.  (With guest appearances from Archer and Thief)

Combine this with Elfboy's musings on whether Knight should be banned before Geomancer just because Chapter 1 was the hardest chapter for him...yeah.  Knights are looking really dominating here.  Even the mook-killing Mediator setups in the middle of the game don't really escape Knight--a lot of them are either Equip Shield Mediators (because Equip Shield is basically the only support option Mediators have), or some variety of sword user with Talk Skill.

On poaching, just taking the "You have a 33% chance of Uribo" argument at each relevant fight, ok, so you have a 33% chance of murdering the second half of the game, and a 56% chance of murdering the last quarter of the game.  Once you add that up, on average poaching murders 22% of the game, as opposed to the 80% of the game that Knights are relevant in the event that poaching doesn't come up.

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 12, 2011, 05:40:30 AM
Yayyyy more stuff I can comprehend instead of just understanding the math porn aspect. <3 this stuff as always.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2011, 04:01:26 PM
So...with the banning of Knight...

Thief goes from having "Nice stats for Equip Sword, and having an important movement ability" to being totally irrelevant.  Almost everything left is like...range 8 or more, so Move+2 is pretty questionable.

Dancer, Mediator, and Archer are still highly relevant of course.

Your target probably includes being an Archer with Equip Gun.  Equip Shield is banned now, so Archer is the only way you're getting a shield.  Equip Gun is the only way you're actually using that shield (because LOLcrossbows).

The rest of your setup...your reaction is probably Arrow Guard, although since you have a shield there's a decent argument for Caution (!!!).  Movement is...probably empty most of the game, maybe filled by Move+2 eventually.  You probably want to lower your faith on some characters, because between Arrow Guard and low faith you won't fear ranged attackers.  (And stutter stepping deals with melee attackers).

Your secondary...actually, is your secondary just basically Dance with all characters?  Guns don't use PA.  Males and females deal the same damage with longbows in Chapter 1.  Females have a slightly less painful time unlocking Mediator.  So...the logical path is...in chapter 1 go Archer and get some charges; next go Mediator until you have Equip Gun, and then run around with Charge and Equip Gun in the dead physical tree (most of whose weapons are banned now, like swords, but Equip Gun handles the no-weapon issue, and a lot of these classes give you shields so you're not really sacrificing anything by not being in Archer).  And...really, what's going to destroy mooks harder?  Arrow Guard?  Or freaking Nameless Dance?

Hmm...is there a reason to go males?  There's the...three battles in Chapter 1 where you don't have Longbows, so females will be dealing 12 damage with Bow Gun compared to males' 15 damage with Bow Gun.  Maybe you want to go for an unarmed melee attack in order to blitz a boss.  Hmm...using the same numbers as before...

Unarmed damage
Chapter 1: 15 damage
Chapter 2: 35 damage
Chapter 3: 77 damage
Chapter 4: 96 damage

...Ehh...mostly lower or similar to the equivalent ranged damage.  You could raise your brave, but if we start talking about brave raising, I'm pretty sure "reset until Uribo" is much less time consuming.  Ok, so screw unarmed damage.

Then there's...Gastrifitis damage in the later half of Chapter 4.  It's somewhere between a 50% to 100% damage improvement over Mythril Gun, and still lets you use shields; this is a big deal, and probably worth the range drop.  Granted, if you're using Gastrifitis, you're using a minimum of Power Sleeve and Charge, so males are like...only 10% better damage with it.

Also...we're talking later half of Chapter 4 here.  56% chance of Chantage (assuming it's not worth it to just force a Uribo at Zigolis Swamp).  Nonzero chance of Hydra/Tiamat (216 damage per triple flame hit).  Nonzero chance of Dark Behemoth (240 damage from 60 brave).  Elemental Guns require a detour, but are similar.

So hm, the big argument for males seems to be Chapter 1.  Thing is, 12 damage and 15 damage are both so incredibly awful.  Could you maybe just rely on Delita and Algus and play more of a supportive role instead?  Hmm...actually yeah, maybe.  You probably won't unlock anything like Mimic Daravon before Longbows show up, but Steal Heart is only 150 JP so you'll often be able to learn it without being a Thief at all.  And...hey wait!  MYTHRIL KNIVES!  Thief with Mythril Knife deals 20 damage, from either gender.  (I had been ignoring Knives because they spend 90% of the game with less WP than bows).  So...yeah, there are alternatives to attacking with crossbows for those three battles where they're relevant.

Which brings me back to thinking that you do run all females; mostly due to "why not?"


So...the game breaks down something like this:

Before Guns: all about Archer, with a tiny bit of Steal Heart and Knives

After Guns: all about Mediator/Equip Gun, with guest appearances from the Archer Charge skillset, but Equip Gun helps you so much more than Charge on the route to Dancer.

After Dancer is unlocked: Primarily about Dance (vs mooks) and Charge (vs assassinations) and sometimes debilitation like Solution/Threaten/Slow Dance/Persuade (vs zodiac assassinations).  Guns are still cool, although you're probably back chilling in the Archer class, and might even have Gastrifitis, so they're not helping you as much as the other two classes.

After the game is broken via Chantage or invited Tiamats or Elemental Guns or whatever: Mediator.


Alternatively, if you go males, there's...less of a focus on Equip Gun (although you still want it for your Archer) and more of a focus on Solution+Arrow Guard.  And...Talk Skill probably becomes your secondary of choice, although you might grind for Sing (which could be argued as a slight upgrade over Talk Skill).  It probably plays something like a Mediator SCC, except with Shields, Charge, Arrow Guard, the ability to use invited monsters, and breed/poach.

Hm, yeah, this is awkward.  I'm pretty sure the best party is four females, and yet Dancer STILL doesn't feel dominant; dominates one half of one section of the game (out of four), and is relevant in some assassinations.

Archer vs Mediator is like...
Guns > Bows (For most of the game)
Charge > Talk Skill (in most fights, not counting out-of-battle effects)
Arrow Guard ~ Solution (Not sure which of these makes the bigger impact, and I'm not sure it matters when "get some Dancers instead" is probably a better option in most fights where these are relevant)
Shields are good, but it takes Equip Gun to make effective use of them usually

This feels kind-of balanced.  Well...maybe Guns > Bows doesn't hold for "most" of the game, when it's false in Chapter 1 and half of Chapter 2, and half of Chapter 4 (that's technically half the game).  Although...bows don't completely dominate Chapter 4--Guns still have 4 more range, and the damage gap is a lot smaller if you're focusing on speed/durability over PA, and guns can be used on any class (whereas Equip Crossbow means not using Concentrate, and accuracy closes the damage gap).

This feels...kind-of-sort-of balanced; maybe slightly Archer-leaning.  Except...yeah, throw in the spice of "Mediators can randomly break the game with chantages.  Or intentionally break the game if you expect more than 2 resets in Chapter 3/4".  I...think that seals it?

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2011, 04:43:09 PM
Next up...same as before, except with Archer/Dancer as the only really relevant classes.  Maybe a little Bard.

So...there's the before-Dancer time, which is Archer dominated, with some Steal Heart action.  And there's the after-Dancer time which is...

mooks (50% of fights) dominated by Dance
assassinations (50% of fights) mostly you want to be using Charge, Concentrate, and bows, although some fights you do want to Dance (Balk 2, Altima).  Although...speaking of special exceptions like Balk 2, you also want Shields for that fight, which only Archer offers.  There's also a couple of special exceptions that pull out red Chocobos (Elmdor, Rofel).

So...Dance dominates somewhere in the range of 55% of remaining fights...probably used from the Archer class because Archer offers the most durability, and the only credible offence for cleaning up a fight quickly before the Nameless Dance statuses wear off, and is tied with Dancer for the best PA multiplier if you're thinking of using Wiznaibus.  Oh, and you're probably using both Concentrate and Arrow Guard.

Add to this, being male matters again; not a whole lot, but it does.  And there isn't a hilariously easy way to get to Dancer through all the dead classes like Equip Gun+Charge.  You could use Equip Crossbow, but that's not even remotely effective until like...Hunting Bow (Orbonne Monestary checkpoint in Chapter 3).  Before then, Equip Crossbow doesn't even necessarily increase your damage above "unarmed female punch".  Which is to say, it's going to be tempting to not even start unlocking Dancer until half-way through Chapter 3--just leaning on Archer with a bit of Steal Heart.  ...Yeah.

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2011, 04:59:56 PM
Ok, so...the classes remaining are Thief, Bard, Dancer, Mime.

You could chill out in Thief, and suck forever.  Except for that one glorious moment when you steal Meliadoul's Chantage with your 500 JP Steal Accessory ability.  Or maybe when you poach some Ryozan Silks (15 WP on a class with good stats from a common poach?  OMG!!!) at the start of Chapter 4.

You could head to Bard as a low-faith male mage, sucking hard while you got there, sucking while you're in there, but coming out with an almost decent skillset.  Maybe you can get a party of Battle Song Thieves that raise their PA and then punch people!

You could head to Mime, and suck for 90% of the game, but be...actually pretty awesome for the remaining 10% since you probably have at least two allies with Sing/Dance, and Mime HP doesn't look as atrocious when your options are Bard, Dancer, and Thief.

Or you could go to Dancer and not suck.  (The best skillset of all these classes.  And...I think also the best physical attack of all these classes).


Thief is doing a decent amount to help here, between poaching and stealing, but Dancer feels like the only real power in this group.

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2011, 08:20:41 PM
In all of this, I've forgotten about Chocobos.

Do Chocobos come before Dancers?  Hmm...I doubt it.  You may want to use a bunch of red chocobos for most assassination missions, but you can deal similar damage (at shorter range with a chance of missing, granted) when using humans.  And humans gain JP.  And there are certainly points in the game when Wiznaibus is similar singletarget damage to Choco Meteor.  They're good, but they don't crowd out the actual use of humans (and Dancer in particular).

When we're just down to Thief/Bard/Mime, though?  I uhh...well this is probably a pretty accurate Thief damage curve:

Quote
Unarmed damage
Chapter 1: 15 damage
Chapter 2: 35 damage
Chapter 3: 77 damage
Chapter 4: 96 damage

Daggers are something like...
Chapter 1: 20
Chapter 2: 30
Chapter 3: 56
Chapter 4: 90

By comparison...

Quote
Chapter 2:
Choco Meteor is 44
Chapter 3:
Choco Meteor is 68
Chapter 4:
Choco Meteor is 100

So...Chocobos are generally winning damage.  Speed for Red Chocobos is...generally acceptable (they reach 7 speed at level 3, 8 speed at level 16, 9 speed by level 28).  Which means they're usually parity or one speed less than Thieves using Green Beret/Flash Hat/Thief Hat.  Their HP is...

Level 10 (Chapter 2): 93 HP (less than Thieves--Green Beret+Brigandine alone beat that)
Level 18 (Chapter 3): 146 HP (less than Thieves--Twist Headband+Power Sleeve is 126 HP, so at level 18 their base HP of 67 would add up to 193 HP)
Level 30 (Chapter 4): 225 HP (less than Thieves--Thief Hat+Power Sleeve is 170 HP, so at level 30 their base HP of 95 brings that to 265 HP)

Ok, how much more HP is this on average?

Chapter 2: Thieves have 45% more HP
Chapter 3: Thieves have 32% more HP
Chapter 4: Thieves have 17% more HP

There are other intangibles, of course, like Thieves can wear status blocking, Thieves can wear Angel Rings and Feather Mantles.  Thieves can have Sing and have something that almost counts as a skillset.  Thieves can get more movement (although not Ignore Height, which is probably more important once we're quibbling about 7 move vs 6 move).

Hmm...here's the thing.  Red Chocobos seem better in assassination missions.  But Red Chocobos also seem better in most mook-smash situations.  They can stutter step, they can cliff abuse (without spending an extra 1200 JP in Bard for Fly--and they have a better height-ignoring attack to use with cliff abuse--Choco Meteor > Harp attack).  Lots of mooks have evasion, which they ignore.

There are some fights where I think you still want Humans.  Zalera (because you probably want something with an angel ring.  Then again, Red Chocobos might be able to just blitz Zalera).  Maybe Hashmallum (they'd need to be pretty high-level not to get insta-cast by Quake...although maybe you can bait him into charging something on Ramza?  Although they're decent at spreading once they do get a turn).  Maybe Altima (doing this without Angel Rings sounds nasty).

These aren't a lot of battles, but they're important ones--important enough that you might not want to just let your humans lag behind in levels while you take a flock of Chocobos into every fight.  Hmm...yeah, I might need to think about this a bit more....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 12, 2011, 09:05:14 PM
You know this analysis has turned awesome when there is in-depth numeric comparisons on Thieves vs. Red Chocobos. *grabs popcorn*
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2011, 03:59:24 PM
Mmm...yeah, I'm a little stuck on this one; let me try a few measures.

Who wins in the 5v5 versus match?

Well...ok, for starters, what equipment are we assuming for the Thieves?  The numbers I had above were Air Knife, but they probably actually poach Zorlin Shapes (108 damage) and probably do take the time to steal a Chantage from Meliadoul.

At level 30 with Thief Hats, it's 10 speed to 9, so Thieves go first.  The males run into a corner singing Cheer Song.  Now, normally Chocobos could keep just about any opponent from running for more than one turn by going into the center of the map...so...the Chantage user goes to the center of the map to intercept their obvious path, and waits.  I'm pretty sure their best reaction is to charge through her (and not attack her at all because that would waste CT).  Cheer Song resolves, giving an average of +2 speed to all Thieves.  The Thieves get the next turn before the Chocobos despite not waiting: 180/9 = 200/10, so they would have been CT-tied, but if Cheer Song hit them at least once (94% chance) then they'll break the tie.  However, if the Chocobos play smart, the Thieves won't be in range to hit them anyway, while simultaneously having nowhere to escape Choco Meteor next turn.  The males just wait (which continues Cheer Song).  The Chantage user attacks for...120 damage if she's had an average boost from Cheer Song (2HKO threat).

The Chocobos move in, three Choco Meteors kill one male, and two more injure another.  Now Angel Ring kicks in and the Thieves kill three Chocobos (making sure their full health/Chantage users do any attack that risks being countered--counter only really has a 53% chance to land between brave and class evade, but it's still worth being cautious).

So...now the two remaining Chocobos get their turn, and there are five Thieves alive, four of whom still have reraise, four of whom are are about speed 14, the one who was waiting for reraise being speed 12 (compared to the Chocobo's speed 9).  Oh, and most of whom have 7 move.

The chocobos permakill one thief, and bring another to the point of needing reraise.  But unless they can escape up some high cliff they die next turn (and even if they can, Steal Heart ignores vertical tolerance).

Yeah, even if the person playing the Chocobos is a dick and tries to stall for crystalization at this point, I'm not sure they can.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 13, 2011, 04:42:41 PM
Quote
they probably actually poach Zorlin Shapes

Argh. Plagues have a ~1/6 chance of appearing in Bervenia Volcano (and looks like a similar chance overall in Germinas Peak), and then you have a 15% chance of successfully poaching a Zorlin Shape. If getting into each battle long enough to see if a Plague exists takes 3 minutes, and then successfully winning the fight (with your sucky party) and checking the fur shop takes 20 (including the 3), it takes an average of 3 hours and 53 minutes to poach a single Zorlin Shape. Fuck no to them. You can quibble with the numbers (I forget if we now have a more accurate read on that 15% figure... if it's 25%, for instance, then we're only talking 2:20!) but the point stands, Zorlin Shapes are terrible and should not be assumed unless we're utterly convinced they're necessary.

In this case, bear in mind the chocobos could spend those hours of poaching just levelling up as efficiently as possible, since they benefit a lot from that.

(Bitter Thief SCC memories returning!)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2011, 08:12:55 PM
Hmm...checking the battle list, two of the four north-entrance battles have a Plague which always spawns, but only one Plague (for some reason, I thought there was a fight there with five plagues).

There's a Coillery battle that guarantees three plagues, but you can only fight that once (and it's still only half a ZS on average).

And yeah, Chocobos benefitting more from levels than Thieves is definitely something I've been keeping in the back of my mind.  In particular Chapter 2: level 10, Chapter 3: level 18, Chapter 4: level 30 is...probably not a remotely accurate description of a Thief SCC.  (I don't suppose you still have level numbers recorded for your Thief SCC Elfboy?)

I am going to pause to note that Red Chocobo speed is not ass good as I kneejerked.  6.8 at level 1 to Thief's 6.6.  85 growth to Thief's 90 growth.  That's...nearly tied.  The speed gap without equipment goes from 0.2 at level 1, to 0.8 at level 99.  Naked thieves will have the same speed as Chocobos for the majority of the time below level 50, which means any bonus from equipment is usually a flat out advantage, and Thief Hat giving a +2 speed edge is actually the norm (just not at level 30).

In the mean time, I want to take a look at the 1v1, with the already calculated level 30 stats because it has a different dynamic.

The maximum unarmed damage a Thief can do with Power Sleeve, Twist Headband, Bracer at level 30 is...140.  Nowhere near a OHKO.  Swapping out for a Thief Hat gives 96 (side note: turns out the unarmed punch numbers I quoted were Archer without accessory, Archer having one more PA at level 30).  If they can get one PA song off, that's raised to 117.  And hmm...Bracered Zorlin shapes deal 132.  (If they have Air Knives, they might need to sing once to get into 2HKO range).

But basically it's the same scenario: 3HKO vs 2HKO (unless you're willing to allow something really silly like Rubber Costume poaches).  Which is a reasonably even fight--If Chocobo counters and hits (53% chance), Chocobo wins (excepting doubleturn scenarios), otherwise Thief wins.  Thief isn't really fast enough to force a double turn (unless they start so far away that Thief can double-wait first turn without getting hit).  Chocobo usually can't cliff abuse or otherwise escape Thief.  So...1v1 (where neither Angel Rings nor Chantages work, and Sing is bad) is a pretty even fight.

Although...hmm, I wonder if I should take Bard seriously for 1v1, because drain is good in 1v1.  Level 30 Bard has 7 MA and 2 PA, I'm assuming Thief Hat, Power Sleeve, Bracer, so 7 MA, 7 PA.  This means 91 damage with Bloody Strings, which almost completely heals Choco Meteor damage and doesn't trigger counter.  Let's see...if Thief had 95 base HP at level 30, Bard would have...58, so that's 228 with Thief Hat Power Sleeve (still beats Red Chocobos...and more to the point, still avoids 2HKO).

Yeah, ok, humans win the level 30 1v1.  Pretty convincingly too.

(Definitely I should adjust the level higher, though; the question is how much...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 14, 2011, 05:18:15 AM
Quote
In particular Chapter 2: level 10, Chapter 3: level 18, Chapter 4: level 30 is...probably not a remotely accurate description of a Thief SCC.  (I don't suppose you still have level numbers recorded for your Thief SCC Elfboy?)

I know I beat Wiegraf at what was then a record low level, which I think is somewhere in the low 30's. I think I beat the game around the high 40's (maybe even 50?)... in theory I probably still have that file so let me know if checking it is useful.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2011, 03:16:34 PM
Hm, right.  Wouldn't surprise me if the level 30 was lower on this challenge because you can have Sing in that fight.

(As for exactly what level you were at for Wiegraf...35 maybe?  That's enough to get you the 9 speed point while still using Twist Headband Bracer.  It gives you 106 base HP, which combines with Twist Headband+Power Sleeve giving 126 HP for 232.  Combined with bad compatibility you could survive two Lightning Stabs.  Your PA just hit 8, 15 with equips.  With bad compatibility that would be 132--that would take three hits I think?  (270 HP needed to kill him?)  With good compatibility 198--two hits.)

Yeah, that seems about right--both of these require setting up a double turn (so not possible if you're less than speed 9, where he moves first and instantly Lightning Stabs you and kills you in the same number of hits as you kill him).  Both of these require luck in terms of landing all your hits and not getting countered.  I'd hazard a guess that you went neutral or good compatibility, ran away for the first two turns, putting yourself in a location  on the third turn where you could double wait without getting lightning stabbed, and then baited him into using an earth slash while you double-waited?  Hmm...no, that's still not enough CT, although...actually, wait you don't even need to survive a Lightning Stab in this plan because you just double turn him and kill.

Ok, backing up, that opens up the possibility of sub-level-35 strategies.  With a green Beret and good compatibility you can still deal 144 damage (enough for 2HKO).  But if you drop a PA point to 7, that doesn't work since you only deal 120.  The 8 PA point happens at level 32, which lines up better with your "low 30s" recollection.

Ok, mystery solved, you were level 32 with Green Beret, Power Sleeve, Bracer, ate a couple earth slashes to set up a doubleturn, then ran in and punched him twice (probably hitting the shield one of those two times, and needing both counter attacks to miss).

...But this is getting off-topic.

I propose these levels:

1. Roughly match enemy levels (which happens to line up approximately with ~30 at the end of Chapter 3, and ~50 at the end of Chapter 4)
2. Stop doing no-accessory calculations.  Always use Bracers.  Yes, Angel Rings and Feather Mantles and Germinas Boots might be better than Bracers (in a nebulous hard-to-define way).  But Bracers give us nice, straightforward comparisons.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 14, 2011, 04:48:27 PM
Also, I misread the battle list. Huh, 50% Plague spawning sounds completely wrong... my guess is battle 4 unlocks later in the game than when I was trying for it (which was the start of chapter 4), as I would buy 1/3 and I was just having bad luck. Still, the real limit is the rare poaching, of course, and the fact that you only have a shot at one plague per encounter.

Colliery has its own set of problems, namely watching the Beowulf/Reis plot each time, and the fact that you have to do three extra unnecessary battles to even get there.

(And yes, for the record, Level 32-34 was what I was for Wiegraf. Strategy is as you described, except that I was able to lure him to one place where he couldn't counter due to a 3 height difference, for one of the hits. Still only had about a 14-15% chance of winning IIRC.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2011, 06:21:00 PM
So...

Chapter 2 (level 15) (Default Green Beret, Power Wrist)
HP:
Thief: 162
Red Chocobo: 126

Damage:
Thief: 35 (40 with Headgear)
Red Chocobo: 56

Speed:
Thief: 8
Red Chocobo: 7

Chapter 3 (level 30) (Default Twist Headband, Power Sleeve, Bracer)
HP:
Thief: 227
Red Chocobo: 225

Damage:
Thief: 140
Red Chocobo: 100

Speed:
Thief: 8
Red Chocobo: 9

Chapter 4 (level 50, default Thief Hat, Power Sleeve, Bracer)
HP:
Thief: 320
Red Chocobo: 358

Damage:
Thief: 140 (176 with Twist Headband.  156 with Zorlin Shape)
Red Chocobo: 152

Speed:
Thief: 12
Red Chocobo: 10


--------------------------------------------

All Chocobo damage values are for Choco Meteor.  Choco Attack from a 70-brave Chocobo actually deals almost identical damage numbers at all three levels. (54/96/150 compared to 56/100/152.  Not what I expected from a parabola).  Admittedly, this is assuming average PA; since Chocobo PA is random, if you get a perfect Chocobo, it's 70/117/187 (compared to your perfect stat's Chocobo's Choco Meteor of 64/108/168).  Choco Meteor is still going to be the attack of choice, but against charging/sleeping enemies there's also the option of Choco Attack to get the 1.5x mult.  (Choco Ball is consistently worse than both).

The biggest difference from the old numbers is that the HP gap has now evaporated; Chocobos are even slightly advantaged at high level.  Thieves can switch around their equipment, of course, pull out the Angel Rings and have more durability (but a lot less damage barring Zorlin Shape).

Damage and speed...the problem is they're back and forth now; sometimes Thieves are slower but deal more damage, sometimes Chocobos are slower but deal more damage.  Let's look at an aggregated offence measure:

Damage*Speed

Chapter 2:
Thief: 280
Red Chocobo: 392

Chapter 3:
Thief: 1120
Red Chocobo: 900

Chapter 4:
Thief: 1680 (technically 1760 with Twist Headband)
Red Chocobo: 1520

Actually, you know what, why stop at two?

Damage*Speed*HP

Chapter 2:
Thief: 45360
Red Chocobo: 49392

Chapter 3:
Thief: 254240
Red Chocobo: 20250

Chapter 4:
Thief: 537600
Red Chocobo: 544160



So...the way I read this...you probably want to keep your Thieves decently well-trained until Velius (which is their strongest point in the game--Bracers and Twist Headbands and Power Sleeves are brand new in the store, giving them a temporary leg up over Red Chocobo stat growth).  And you want a whole lot of physical damage against Velius, regardless of range.  And then you...probably ditch your Thieves; yeah, they still have a stat lead, but the next 15 or so fights are not Thief-friendly anyway (lots of evasion and bossses that generally spit on melee attackers such as Balk and Elmdor, and fights that curl up and cry to Ignore Height).  You might want to completely break the Dycedarg fight with Fly Bards, but Ramza probably has Bard unlocked, and Red Chocobos can support that plan just fine (picking off non-Dycedarg targets so that you only need to cliff abuse Dycedarg while singing).  Alternatively, it's red chocobos: just spread the hell out and blitz him.  After that you have a bunch more shielded enemies, and then the final dungeon, and by the final dungeon you're on paper nearing level 50, fast enough that Hashmallum can't hit everyone, and just generally matching Thieves as beaters while having range, so you don't really regret dropping them.

As for the 5v5, the roles have semi-reversed;  Chocobos are so close to 2HKO that they can often swing it if they find some decent compatibility.  If Thieves want Angel Rings, and Thief Hats, they 3HKO (although with Air Knife they really need a round of Cheer Song to reach 3HKO range).

Chantage user plays point once again while everyone else Cheer Songs once (at these speeds two Cheer Songs are hard).  Chocobos advance.  Chantage user stabs one, everyone else is out of range.  Chocobos kill two people and injure a third, standing in formation to protect the already stabbed Chocobo.  Thieves reraise, kill one Chocobo, damage another; they've attacked six times only one of which killed, so taken an average of 2.5 counterattacks (one of which was on their Chantage user).  If Chocobos can still find favourable compatibility to hit, they now need 8 moves to wipe the Thieves' party (three Thieves needed two hits. Two thieves needed one hit.  8 hits total, counterattacks deal with 2.5 of those).  But compatibility probably isn't that nice, let's say 10 hits needed; ignore the Chantage user, 8 hits.  Ignore the counterattacks on her, 1.5 counterattacks.  So...6.5 hits.  You have 4 Chocobos.  Make sure the two raisers are dead for good, and drop someone else.  I was going to suggest moving...but that's probably a bad idea as it guarantees a doubleturn fairly soon, whereas if you wait on spot and Thieves need to move to hit the right Chocobo, you can avoid the doubleturn.  So...the Chocobo that's taken two hits gets fried, and the Chocobo that took one hit on the way in stays meatshielded by that corpse, and another full health Chocobo got hit twice.  So...remember that we had one full-health or close Thief that was at 2.5 Choco Meteors of life, one Chantage user who had taken one counterattack on average, and one Thief that revived from Angel Ring.  The Chantage user takes another 0.5 counterattacks, and the 2.5 Thief takes a 0.5 counterattack too.  Pretty straightforward: kill the reraised Thief, and drop the Angel Ring Thief.  One Thief reraises, they finish off one chocobo, take a swing at the other, and then the two remaining Chocobos get a full party wipe.

Getting back to the ban list...

Yeah...you probably keep one Ramza because you have to; he probably mostly sings, one female because of Chantage (assuming you think it's worth going to the effort to steal--which it probably is; Chantage users are very tempting AI targets when everyone else is spamming attacks from long range) and three Red Chocobos for pretty much the entirety of Chapter 4.  And...Chocobos are notably better in Chapter 2, and most of Chapter 3 (the non-Bracer parts) too.

Ban List:

1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. The Infernal Spawn of Boco (Red Chocobos)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2011, 08:32:36 PM
Bard, Thief, and a bit of Mime spice is all that's left now.

First thing to note: Mimes are not a total joke.  Everyone's going to have Sing, and having one Mime is actually a nice party upgrade (60% more songs).  Mime deals somewhere around 105-112 damage per punch at level 50, which is...really sad, admitedly, but if they punch once and Mime punch four times, that's 500 damage.  Their level 50 HP is around 220--which is worse than Bard, but not that much worse.  Their speed is disappointing (10; Thief gets 12).  But still: a 60% upgrade to Sing and potentially 500 melee damage are just attractive.

Their path to Mime isn't really all that painful.  Grab sing first, because Bard is on the way to Mime, and then Singing unarmed Squire/Chemist is really not that much worse than singing unarmed Thief, because their PA is pretty good without being in ban range.  They can even both equip Knives, and use them slightly worse than Thieves so it's totally legal.  Monk and Geomancer are the ones that will kind of be annoying, because everything about those classes is pretty much banned (most likely including axes--they're a lot better than knives).  But still, you can get through those classes via sit in a corner and sing, or just do propositions.

As always, though, two Mimes?  Don't be crazy.

Bard kind-of dominates most of the skills.  Move+3 > Move+2.  Sing > Steal.

Thief has generally better stats.  More HP, more speed, more movement.  Damage is a bit more balanced: yes, Thieves deal more raw damage via Bracer and unarmed hits.  (Although granted: pre-Bracer, Bard deals about equal damage to Thief or better--up to 104 with Bloody Strings.  Even post-Bracer, if you decide to go Angel Ring over Bracer, Bloody Strings will tend to deal slightly more damage.  (Until Air Knife shows up, and all the sudden knives aren't laughable).

The big reasons not to go Bard are: you might be female (for Chantage and Steal Heart usage) or you might want to stick to good PA growth for slightly better blitzing.

The big reasons not to go Thief are: you're heading to Mime, or you're in Chapter 2/early Chapter 3 where harps are better than Thief weapons (but you'll still probably end up in Thief eventually).

Man, this is a mess too.  Most people are just plain going to use both: Bard for skills and Thief for stats.  The exception being one female and one Mime.

EDIT: although...if you are running a female for Chantage, she goes to Thief and just sits there forever (because she has nothing better to do) easily getting everyone spillover for Move+2 and Steal Heart, even if they beeline straight for Bard and ignore Thief at the start.  So...there's probably a section of the game where everyone has Move+2.  Certainly the Mime candidate will probably never stop and get Move+3 when he already has Move+2 from spillover.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 15, 2011, 12:56:44 AM
I think you may be underrating Steal Heart a bit. Sure, Steal Heart is mediocre... when you have the ability to blitz safely and effectively. The Thief SCC doesn't, nor does the Bard SCC, and I doubt the intersection of the two (with Mimes lategame maaaaybe) is much better. On the other hand, Steal Heart is very dominantly useful when your slugging ability is poor. (As such I don't think you'd only have one female, for instance.)

My gut feeling on this whole comparison, is that:

(a) Thief > Bard for a chapter and a half by virtue of existing. Yes, you can grind to unlock Bard or whatever, but Thief doesn't have to do this, and chapter 1 thieves don't incur enough resets for bards to "catch up".

(b) Later on, thief still provides Steal Heart, and up 1-3 Chantages depending on taste. Now, Sing beats Steal Heart, sure, but I don't think it's a complete slaughter by any means... which one is more useful does vary battle to battle. I figure this allows Thieves' superior HP and move, as well as Chantage possibilities, to give them a clear enough victory overall.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 15, 2011, 01:07:50 AM
I think this is time for me to note that this is a thing of beauty once again.

Quote
You might want to completely break the Dycedarg fight with Fly Bards

So very very delicious.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 15, 2011, 07:53:51 PM
Before I dive in, a few corrections on past matchups:

On Mediator vs Archer: I totally overlooked this at the time, but Mediator was literally the only class left that could use Robes.  Between White Robes and Chameleon Robes that's actually a pretty big deal.  Further cements Mediator as the correct choice there.

On Archer vs Dancer: I listed Archer as having the higher damage physical attack, but in reality I suspect that honour actually goes to Dancer (at least...post-Cachmere pre-Gastrifitis...although they pull into first again post-Gastrifitis if you grab the common-poach Ryozan Silk).  I don't think this is enough to tip the balance--everyone still uses Charge, Concentrate, and Arrow Guard all over the place.  Archer still has the best HP, making them an attractive carrier.  Archer still brings Shields, which break some fights.  Archer still has range on their damage.  Dancer still has the gender restriction.  But...it certainly makes things closer.

Quote
(a) Thief > Bard for a chapter and a half by virtue of existing.

Yeah, I'm a little hesitant to go along with this logic for the following reasons:

Suppose the two classes left were Thief and another high tech class--let's go with Samurai.  Would Thief win that just because they win almost half the game "by default" and are still somewhat relevant during the rest of the game?

Let's go with an example from another angle.  Let's say the two remaining classes were Archer and Bard.  You'd go to Archer first, grab a few charges, think you yourself "should I start unlocking Bard yet?" and then conclude "naaah, let me get Concentrate first--that's going to help regardless of class".  Then when you had Concentrate you'd go "Ok, should I start down the path to Bard now?" and then probably react "wait, wait, I'm going to want Arrow Guard anyway, and it's going to make a huge difference--let me get that first."  And then, only after you've gotten 1500-2000 JP worth of abilities, do you go "Ok, sure, I guess I might as well unlock Bard now."

By comparison, when it's Thief and Bard, you...grab Steal Heart, and then ask yourself "ok, should I go unlock Bard now?"  and...the answer is...probably yes.  What are you sticking around for?  Move+2?  You're only going to replace it.  Secret Hunt?  Not relevant until Chapter 4.  Maybe get it on one person just in case you run into an Ahriman at Fovoham Plains or Zigolis Swamp or Zerekile Falls or Barius Valley or Mandalia Plains (Ahriman have Air Knife as their rare poach).  But you don't need Secret Hunt on more than one person for the random Ahriman.  Caution?  Meh, unlocking Bard will probably help you more.

Add to this, what's the best time to unlock Bard?  Probably Chapter 1 when you can lean on guests.  At least if we're going by SCC-style guest rules, Chapter 1 has likely become the easiest Chapter.

I guess what I'm saying is this: the competition in Chapter 1 isn't between Thief and Bard, it's between Thief...and heading down the Bard unlock path.  And I'm actually feeling like the Bard unlock path is the better choice.

This doesn't exactly mean that Bard wins Chapter 1.  The best analogy I can think of...let's say in a normal game of FFT you learn Magic Attack Up pretty early in the game.  You're still going to use Gained JP Up in 75% of fights, but you might pull out MAU in the 25% of fights that are actually hard.  Similarly, Thieves with knives and Steal Heart are still better than Mediators with knives and Steal Heart, so you might pull out the Thieves in a hard battle.  But it's only a slight upgrade, so you'll try to squeeze by with Mediators whenever you can (much like Gained JP Up).

Chapter 1 feels like a wash to me.

I think you may be underrating Steal Heart a bit. Sure, Steal Heart is mediocre... when you have the ability to blitz safely and effectively. The Thief SCC doesn't, nor does the Bard SCC, and I doubt the intersection of the two (with Mimes lategame maaaaybe) is much better.

Actually, they are rather a lot better.  If you can run away for two turns (and you have 7 move: you almost always can) then Battle Song goes off three times per user.  15 Battle Songs is an average of +7.5 PA...but it's actually better than that in practice because it's random and fists are quadratic.

In Chapter 2, when your PA starts at 7, using Battle Song for two rounds (3 activations) raises you from 35 damage on average, to 147 damage on average.

In Chapter 3, when your PA starts at 14 (thank you Bracer), using Battle Song for two rounds (3 activations) raises you from 140 damage to 325 damage on average.

What if you only have one turn of prep?  If you're speed 6 you can still pull off two activations of Battle Song in a single turn.  Still enough, in Chapter 2, to raise your average damage from 35 to 99.  Still enough, in Chapter 3, to raise your average damage from 140 to 251.

You can't really do this on the Bard SCC.  Or rather, you can, but you need to spend a couple turns just to bring your PA to Thief levels, and THEN you can start making yourself powerful.  There's not much point to doing this when you have Red Chocobos--one Battle Song promises ~70 future damage (spread across five units) while keeping your distance from the enemy.  Choco Meteor deals ~70 damage right now, also while keeping your distance.

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On the other hand, Steal Heart is very dominantly useful when your slugging ability is poor. (As such I don't think you'd only have one female, for instance.)

I'm actually entertaining the opposite possibility: whether 0 females is the correct party composition.  In any fight that isn't a total blitzfest where you can run away for at least one turn, I'm pretty sure Battle Song fists becomes the dominant strategy.  Females can't sing, are worse at punching, and don't get Move+3.  All this for a slightly better version of Steal Heart?

Quote
(b) Later on, thief still provides Steal Heart, and up 1-3 Chantages depending on taste.

Yeah, I'm not inclined to give a whole lot of credit to the 4-Chantage party.  It's something you only get by beating the deep dungeon, and then repeatedly fighting a battle that spawns only one Porky on average.  And then you get to use this party in...six whole story fights.  I mean, yes, it makes a decent case for being the strongest party you can field in those six fights (even though it can still lose).  But it's not really centralizing.  Now, what it DOES stop is anything else becoming too centralizing during the last six battles, because "grind for 6 hours and get Chantage Cheese instead" is always a viable counter-option.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 15, 2011, 09:06:44 PM
Right, I was thinking that Uribos got poached for Chantages for some reason. My bad, that does lower my opinion of thief some here. Replace "1-3 Chantages" with "1".

I do think you've overestimating the number of battles where you can run away for two turns. I've done a Dancer SCC (which doesn't have the crazy move, but does have a faster-working gimmick) and watched a fair bit of the Bard SCC and I recall quite a few battles where the enemy starts in your face with nowhere to run. It's not a majority, but it certainly keeps this strategy from being dominant.

As for females vs. males, it really depends. Female steal heart is not "slightly" better, as enemies skew male to a ridiculous degree (there are 17 battles in which all charmable enemies are male but just 3 battles in which all charmable enemies are female, excluding optional fights and those before Sweegy). By far the worst of this skewing happens in chapter 4... which is also when Sing is at its worst.

On the thief SCC, I used three females and I think I ultimately decided this was fairly optimum. Fists only really supplant knives in late chapter 3, and I had enough firepower to kill Velius reliably anyway (Wiegraf was the sticking point), while charm makes so many fights winnable it's not funny. Of course, this isn't the Thief SCC; males have Sing and Power Song boosts fists much faster than knives. Three females is unlikely to be optimum. However, it's almost certainly 1 minimum. Chapter 4 is already a potential sticking point for the all-male team due to a lack of enemies to charm and Sing depreciating, tossing in one female not only ups your charming power, but it makes the whole Sing strategy far more viable due to Chantage. Think about it, the singers run away while the Chantage-user charges forward to distract some enemies from chasing the males, and even charms some of them if you're lucky. This is a pretty obvious improvement and I don't think "slightly better Power Song -> punch" strategy in chapters 2-3 is going to offset this.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2011, 02:20:39 AM
Three females is unlikely to be optimum. However, it's almost certainly 1 minimum. Chapter 4 is already a potential sticking point for the all-male team due to a lack of enemies to charm and Sing depreciating, tossing in one female not only ups your charming power, but it makes the whole Sing strategy far more viable due to Chantage. Think about it, the singers run away while the Chantage-user charges forward to distract some enemies from chasing the males, and even charms some of them if you're lucky. This is a pretty obvious improvement and I don't think "slightly better Power Song -> punch" strategy in chapters 2-3 is going to offset this.

Yeah--you probably do want one Chantage user in Chapter 4 to distract the enemies.  (And I was thinking about this earlier: yes this character uses primarily Steal Heart because it does a better job of keeping enemies from targeting your males).

Food for thought, though: do you train a female the whole game, or do you recruit one after you've stolen the Chantage?  It's not like it requires levels to wear a Chantage and a Green Beret.

More food for thought: it is a surprisingly big drop in offence to do this.  One occurrence of Battle Song is kind-of like Elemental--70 long range damage that you can follow up with melee.  Except instead of being 70 damage now, it's really +14 damage to everyone's punches in the future.  Now, it's not like a Chantage wearing female can't make use of Battle Song at all, but they're like Bards--it's maybe half as effective.  Also, Chantage users are supposed to be suicidal and draw fire, so they spend a lot of time dead, missing songs.  So...the boost is +14 to four party members, and maybe +4 or so to the Chantage user.  A boost of 60 per Battle Song resolution.  Add to this, by using a female you have a lot fewer songs per turn, especially if there's a Mime or two in the mix.  With Mimes, removing even one singer potentially takes you from 9 songs per cycle to 6 songs per cycle (although 8->6 is a more probable setup).

So...in order to be break-even, a Chantage user has to basically buy the males 50% more time...which I'm pretty sure a Chantage user can do.  Hence I still lean on the side of advocating Chantage use.  But it's not actually a total no-brainer.

Quote
I do think you've overestimating the number of battles where you can run away for two turns. I've done a Dancer SCC (which doesn't have the crazy move, but does have a faster-working gimmick) and watched a fair bit of the Bard SCC and I recall quite a few battles where the enemy starts in your face with nowhere to run. It's not a majority, but it certainly keeps this strategy from being dominant.

Fights where enemies start in your face need to be handled completely differently, yes.  I haven't really covered those yet.

If it's early in the game (before PA boosting) you...probably still battle song, even if you're standing right next to the enemy.  It just deals so much more damage in the long run.

If you're in most of Chapter 3, you...equip Harps.  They flat-out deal more damage than Knives, and if an enemy attacked you before you could move, you get to heal the damage with Bloody Strings.

Not sure about Chapter 4.  Air Knives deal slightly more damage than harps, but don't drain.  I'm not sold on Bracer in situations where you get attacked before you can move (because you really want Angel Rings to keep your timers sane), which mostly rules out fists.  It should also be noted that Angel Rings have a fantastic interaction with Bloody Strings--revive and instantly heal half your health instead of immediately dieing again.  And yes: Steal Heart is also an option.  In the event that someone does become dead and the clock starts ticking, it's not a bad idea to Cheer Song if you get a chance--if your party is speed synced it will get roughly half your party an extra turn before crystallization.

Point is, I agree: in-your-face fights require often completely different strategies.  But...a decent amount of the time they're Bard strategies, not Thief strategies.

Quote
chapter 4... which is also when Sing is at its worst.

Ehh...as long as you're speed 8 (which you will try to be for a lot of Chapter 4--don't want to be faster than the enemies or you'll get charged on) you can do 3 Battle Songs in 2 turns.  Which is pretty much what you've been doing ever since Chapter 2.  The amount of bonus damage you get out of each Battle Song scales with PA (thanks to the quadratic formula) so it scales up too.

And...Mimes are possible in Chapter 4.  Wanna know a class that uses Battle Song-Punch arguably better than Thieves?  Mimes.  They nearly double the songs.  They have martial arts and concentrate, and therefore benefit more percentage-wise from each Battle Song.  They can sing and punch at the same time.*

*Let me give you a hillarious example of singing and punching.  Picture Poeskas Lake.  Now picture taking three Singers and two Mimes to Poeskas Lake.  The Mimes punch the two Revnants to death, while the singers huddle in the corner with the Mimes and sing.  Nine songs per turn, WHILE dealing with the enemies who start in your face.

**Ok, granted, that's not necessarily the ideal Poeskas Lake strategy, since you really want to poach the Revnants so that they don't revive, and super-frail Mimes potentially getting countered, even by Revnants, is a little risky.  And a Chantage user can get the mages to waste their MP.  But damn-it, the concept is hilarious.

--------------------

On a side note, I'm suddenly tempted to do some calculations on whether a couple level up-down cycles are worth considering as an option.  You have Bard.  You have Mime.  Three 1->10->1 cycles takes...2 hours maybe?  LESS THAN ZORLIN SHAPES.

You know what, let's do this!  Let's say you start as a level 40 Mime with...

HP: 184
PA: 11

Levelling down to 1 drops this to...

HP: 62
PA: 7

1->10

HP: 142
PA: 9

10->1

HP: 98
PA: 8

1->10

HP: 225
PA: 10

10->1

HP: 115
PA: 9

1->10

HP: 355
PA: 11

At such a low level, you'll probably gain 10 more levels before the game is over so...

10->20

HP: 577
PA: 14

By comparison, if you had used that time to just gain levels you'd gain...about 1/5 the exp because you're not close to level 1, although you'd at least be gaining exp in every fight, so gainin 10 levels could have gotten you...

HP: 224
PA: 12

Granted, you have a bit more speed in this form, but...you're a freaking Mime; you don't need speed that badly when you're miming stuff.

...And there you have it: level up-down.  PROVABLY BETTER THAN ZORLIN SHAPE.  Actually, just to add insult to injury--Zorlin Shape was closer to 3 hours; if you squeeze in one extra up-down cycle to match Zorlin Shape time...

Stats at level 10

HP: 559
PA: 13

Stats at level 20:

HP: 909
PA: 16

TAKE THAT, ZORLIN SHAPE!

-------------------

Anyway, umm...I'm not sure how serious I am about level-up-down as a strategy.  Well...I think it's more serious than Deep Dungeon Chantages or ZORLIN SHAPES.  I also think that if you feel the need to do heavy grinding, that it's likely better than pure level gain...but only on one or two people (because you need to keep some of your party high-level so that you can level up in two actions).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2011, 04:59:43 AM
And for the curious--I asked myself "who should get more credit for level-up-down, Bard or Mime"?  Turns out, Bard.

4x 1->10 cycles down Bard, up Thief:

HP: 192
PA: 10.5
Speed: 7.4

4x 1->10 cycles, down Thief, up Mime

HP: 184
PA: 9.3
Speed: 6.8

Admittedly, down Thief, up Bard does gain slightly more PA per cycle, and significantly more HP per cycle, but it starts way behind since the initial 40->1 in Bard is a big head start over 40->1 in Thief.  PA will never catch up--down Bard, up Thief hits 99 before down Thief, up Mime.  Down Thief up Mime will win in HP after six cycles, and max out after 12 cycles (compared to 13 cycles for down Bard up Thief).  But...yeah, that's the only way in which down Bard up Thief isn't strictly better than down Thief up Mime.

(Not that it matters: down: Bard, up: Mime is blatantly the strongest up-down combo here, getting about twice the HP and PA of the other combos per cycle.  And which class gets the most credit for it doesn't really matter).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 16, 2011, 05:58:14 AM
Late, but

Quote
Suppose the two classes left were Thief and another high tech class--let's go with Samurai.  Would Thief win that just because they win almost half the game "by default" and are still somewhat relevant during the rest of the game?

They very possibly would! The reason you kneejerk Samurai > Thief (and indeed, it is better in the vast majority of circumstances) has a fair bit to do with oodles of other classes doing the "easy to unlock, unimpressive fighter" better than thief, but a metagame that lacks all of those makes the comparison, at the very least, a far closer one. Samurai may still win that comparison, but it's far from a foregone conclusion and would merit some pretty serious analysis.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2011, 03:48:43 PM
Late, but

Quote
Suppose the two classes left were Thief and another high tech class--let's go with Samurai.  Would Thief win that just because they win almost half the game "by default" and are still somewhat relevant during the rest of the game?

They very possibly would! The reason you kneejerk Samurai > Thief (and indeed, it is better in the vast majority of circumstances) has a fair bit to do with oodles of other classes doing the "easy to unlock, unimpressive fighter" better than thief, but a metagame that lacks all of those makes the comparison, at the very least, a far closer one. Samurai may still win that comparison, but it's far from a foregone conclusion and would merit some pretty serious analysis.

Hmm...Samurai may have been a bad example of what I was trying to demonstrate, because they like being female, and really appreciate Move+2, and might use Thief as a carrier, and will use Steal Heart for the vertical tolerance.

Different example: Suppose the last two were Ninja/Thief, and Ninja unlock requirements were changed to include job level 8 Squire (so that Ninja unlocked about half-way through the game).  Thief is now the only available class for 50% of the game, and then you almost completely ditch the class for the second 50%.  Does that mean Thief auto-wins?  The point I was trying to make was...here is a scenario where Thief is the class of choice for 50% of the game, but your party sucks for the first 50% of the game, and your party rules and smashes all the fights for the second 50% of the game.  I think that should be taken into account.

Furthermore, even in the first 50% of the game, if a fight is easy, you should be grinding in Squire to unlock Ninja.  If a fight is so hard that you literally can't beat it, your obvious grind path is also "unlock Ninja".  The only time you shouldn't be ignoring Thief and unlocking Ninja is when you really need juuuust a little bit of extra speed/mobility/damage to win a fight, or when you're learning Thief abilities.  (Which to me means that Thief isn't centralizing in the early chapters, because there is an obvious alternative--namely Squire/other Ninja unlock classes).



Anyway, current thoughts on how centralizing various stuff is.

1. Sing (It kills any fight where you can run, any fight pre-power-sleeve-bracer where it effectively deals more damage than your melee, and is the strategy of choice in several other key fights including Wiegraf/Velius, Dycedarg/Adramelk due to being split fights, and Altima/Altima due to being ridiculously long, and these are three of the traditionally nastiest fights).
2. Thief stats/equips (The best combo for sing for 80% of the game.  Stronger than Mediators before sing.  Sometimes the choice in assassination missions).
3. Move+3/(on some people Move+2) (It helps the primary strategy AND the blitzing strategy, and is a huge slap in the face for Mime usability)
4. Bard stats/equips (When you can't stop and sing and need to blitz now, Harps spend a lot of the game dealing better damage than Thieves, and there's the whole 3-range, draining, and vertical tolerance bonuses even after daggers pull slightly ahead).
5. Steal Heart (Even people going pretty much straight to Bard probably detour long enough to grab this...but past that initial 150JP rush I just don't feel it's centralizing inasmuch as it doesn't crowd anything out.  It doesn't dictate your equipment/class like Sing strategies.  If you're grinding to Mime in Squire/Chemist, Steal Heart gets crowded out by Sing.  If you're a Chantage user, you're only one character--you don't stop the rest of the party from using anything).
6. Catch (There's probably a few fights where you want this on everyone)
7. Level up-down (if you're ever having trouble, it's more efficient than just levelling up).
8. Chantage (See above, except only on one character which makes it hard to be centralizing, but there is a tendency to build party strategies around it, so it does dictate the rest of your party at least a little bit).
9. Mime (It's hard to be centralizing as a Mime since there's unlikely to be more than one or two of them, but you do dictate party structure/actions to a degree).
10. Fly (It completely breaks three or four fights fights, but it's very optional, while also being a lot of grinding, and just seems like it'll get drowned out by other grinding options that impact more than 3-4 fights).
11. Secret Hunt (So...miniscule chances of Air Knives early, showing Revnants who is boss, and LOL Zorlin Shapes.  Meh.  Revnants are no Ninjas (ala Catch) and you don't even need this on everyone)
12. Caution (It's technically an upgrade to everyone, and yet I'm finding it very hard to give a damn about it.  Especially with Sing sapping evade half the time).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 03, 2011, 05:11:12 AM
Starjeweled!

So...starting to chat with some high level players and getting a better idea of strategies.

Notably the common opening for people with high energy production who've thought about these things is...

Strafe X

Get to near 1000 energy.  Produce one Ultra and freeze it.  Then get back up to 1000 energy and produce two more ultras as the previous one unfreezes.  Then spam ghosts.

Now, here's what I like about this strategy, especially if you're outproducing your opponents in energy.  (Other than the obvious "three ultras arriving at the same time".  If you're slightly ahead on energy, and just make offence units before they do, then you're going to end up fighting at their cannons.  And they're going to have only slightly fewer units than you.  And probably what happens is that everyone freezes everyone else's Ultras, and your Ultras die from cannon fire.  The advantage of Strafe X is that it slows down your initial push.  Now you're fighting back at your own cannons, and the roles are reversed.

On the choice of Ghosts over Hydras, I'm not entirely sure on the reasoning for that.  I'd hazard a guess that they're better against Zealots and Hydras, but worse against Ultras and cannons.  It does mean that you have to keep heal-wave energy ready at all times in case they psi-storm your ghosts.

In general, at high levels there is a tendency towards units that handle psi-storm, especially if you're going to put a lot of energy into them (psy storm is multi while warp cell is singletarget).  In practice this means Ultra, Colossus, and Immortal, being the only three units that don't need too much babysitting against storm.  Colossi are interesting--if someone told me 6 colossi was provably harder to deal with than 6 ultras, I would take such a claim seriously, because that sounds quite plausible.

Immortals are interesting because they're...actually decent fighting units, and you absolutely must respond.  You can't just let them come to your cannons.  And neither warp cell nor storm is terribly cost-efficient against them.

Zealots are also interesting against storm in a roundabout way--they're horribly vulnerable to it, yes, but they get next to the enemy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 09, 2011, 03:48:02 PM
Desert Strike SC2

Specifically Zerg, as that's what I've been playing.

Every zerg unit I've checked so far matches a 3/3 upgraded version of its SC2 incarnation in terms of stats.  Although they tend to have movement modifications, like Roach burrow move being super fast and Ultras having the Colossus ability to walk through your own army.

Zerglings:
5 / 230 minerals (46 minerals per ling)
8 / 300 minerals (37.5 minerals per ling)
(150% markup from in-game)

Roaches:
2 / 320 minerals (160 minerals per roach)
(160% markup from in-game)

Hydras
3 / 550 minerals (183 minerals per hydra)
(122% markup from in-game)

Hunter Killers (Hydras that deal 25 damage to armored, 10 to light, and have 100 HP)
2 / 600 minerals (300 minerals per hunter killer)

I'm not at all sold on Hunter Killers.  When you consider the price gap between them and Hydras, it's maybe a 15% increase in damage to armored, and 25% less total HP.  So...not necessarily better against armored (although they probably are just due to packing more densely and standing up to AoE better, I guess.  Oh hey, apparently they have range 7 too; that's something).  But woe unto you if they ever start attacking a light unit.

Ultralisk
2 / 1850 minerals (925 minerals per ultra)
(185% markup from in-game)


Note, for the air units...I haven't actually checked if their stats are the same....

Mutalisk
2 / 700 minerals (350 minerals per muta)
(175% markup from in-game)

Corruptor
2 / 1000 minerals (500 minerals per corruptor)
(200% markup from in-game)

Brood Lord
1 / 1400 (1400 minerals per brood lord)
(255% markup from in-game)

And all the spellcasters are changed, so a direct comparison isn't that useful.  And there's more new units than what I listed, but I mostly just know what they do, not their stats.  (Abbers tank with light armor and parasitic moves.  Slugalisks lay creep, and disable enemy abilities.  Brutalisks are high range ground to air.  Swarm Guardians are high range air to ground.  Lurkers sound great, but never seem to do much when I make them.  Like...hey, I've caught the enemy without detection and...they're just walking over the Lurker like it's nothing.  Scourge I actually haven't built >_>).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on December 11, 2011, 01:56:11 AM
Oooohhhhh sexy Desert Strike update!

Mmmm....

Love the Zerg changes.  Aberrations were always good, and now they're...better.  50 more minerals, but they heal more with attacks, and are better supported by other units (cost drops on Ultras, Hunter Killers got a huge boost, etc.).  They stand up a bit better against Diamondbacks than before (DB cost more, deal less damage, Hunter Killers can support the Aberrations better, etc.), and even the Dark Stalkers, which should counter them, don't do a good job of actually countering them.  Hunter Killers...I actually built them!  I normally only built them vs. other Zergs who spammed Roaches and/or Ultralisks (and maybe to support vs. Corruptors).  Now...getting an extra Hunter Killer makes a big difference in terms of firepower - they were always decent in theory (extra range for another firing line, more HP, take up more space), but only getting 2 for 50 more minerals didn't give them a huge advantage over Hydralisks.  Now, I see myself making a line of each on average, as it may seems to be great for adding more firepower.  Cost drops on Ultras, Slugs, and Roaches is overall helpful - in particular, I now find myself building a line of Roaches vs. Protoss to add another firing line. 

But the unit I like the most for Zerg?  The Taint.  Ok, it needs a new name (I laugh every time I see the name then look at it >_>), but it is awesome.  Excellent answer to Protoss anti-air (Void Prism + High Templar wrecks the Corruptor shield for the Swarm Guardians).  One-on-one they murder...everything.  140 HP and 3 armour, and 1200 for one (Corruptors are 1000 for 2, with 200 HP and 5 armour each), but their DPS is pretty good (0.43 cooldown, 9 damage, 12 vs. armour), in fact, better than Corruptors...combined with their range, and it gives you 2 firing lines in the air.  Do note they are Light (so Void Prisms can do a number on them...though it's a bit closer than you think), and are slower than Corruptors, but...they really help win the air.  1:1 ratio of Corrupt Spires to Tainted Spires seems to be the magic number - even vs. Void Prisms and High Templar, the Corruptors tank long enough to eat up the Void Prisms enough that that Taints kill them all (and combined with a couple Brutalisks...).  GTA units (Fades) help, but 6:6 of each Spire was demolishing everything in the air.  Corruptors are just such excellent air tanks that they give the Taints plenty of time to demolish everything else, even under Psionic Storm.

For Terran...Predator damage nerf makes me sad, but the extra Marine from the Barracks I think balances this out, damage-wise.  Cheaper Goliaths and more expensive Diamondbacks (and less damage)...probably overall is a nerf (since Diamondbacks are so good, while Goliaths are more situational).  The 2 Barracks per Starport requirement...I think is to nerf the fast Banshee rush.  Granted...I don't think it needed it, but eh.  Probably their biggest change was the Spartan...200 less minerals, 33% faster attack speed makes them more useful for what they're to be used for, and hey, I might build them now!  They actually work pretty well vs. Swarms and Broods and Colossi and BCs now.  Their AI seems a little better too, so...I need to play with them more, but they seem much more relevant now .

Protoss...mmm...Colossi, Outcast, Immortal nerfs (cost, HP, cost, respectively) hurt, though the Immortals definitely needed it with their 6 range boost.  Uh...yeah.  Preservers got a big boost (they now...uh...heal!), but they were specialized anyway.  Dark Stalkers...I don't know.  I rarely if every made more than 1 Stalker (Archons, Immortals, Outcasts were always my base...I only ever made 1 Gateway too).  Dark Stalkers do more damage, but have less range.  They...mmm...they can't kill a Zergling in one hit, and while they're meant to help deal with Predators and Aberrations, I need to play with them a bit more.  A group of them supporting Outcasts and Archons probably helps, though I think Archons still have better DPS, especially vs. bio with their splash.  I'll probably play with them a bit more and add a line of them vs. Terran or Zerg if I see Predators or Aberrations...otherwise, probably won't touch them.

Overall, neat changes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 11, 2011, 02:15:38 PM
Yeah, I haven't been posting my theorycraft on the new version in this topic because I got roped into being a playtester somehow, and stuff is still changing.

3 Barracks per marine is a huge game-changer.  TvT now tends to be a mass marine opening facing another mass marine opening.

Dark Stalkers are fine on paper; basically the same anti-light DPS as the new Diamondback, and better DPS against other targets.  Less HP (it's something like 260 vs 160 I think) but blink helps with that, and they're cheaper.  But...yeah, every time I start building them, I feel like my wave gets rolled.

Taints...given that everything has 3 armor...

DPS vs non-armor: 13.9
DPS vs armor: 20.9

Compare to Corruptors:

DPS vs non-massive: 7.4
DPS vs massive: 12.1

Except Corruptors cost 500, and Taints cost 1200.  So...more specifically, DPS per 100 minerals

Taints:
DPSPM vs non-armor: 1.16
DPSPM vs armor: 1.74

Corruptors:
DPSPM vs non-massive: 1.48
DPSPM vs massive: 2.42

Which is to say...Taints are good against armored non-massive, which means Vikings and Corruptors.  Their fast firing rate also chews through PDDs, so they're especially effective against Terran (notably, being light is a definite bonus against Terran, as all Terran's air to air is armored).  I'm still not sure how many to get against Toss; you want some just to spread out, but Void Prisms are Massive and not Armored, so... >_>
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: OblivionKnight on December 11, 2011, 05:02:57 PM
Yeah, playing more games today, the +15 mineral cost for an extra Marine is huge.  Marine DPS is massive, and effectively boosting it by 50% for 15 minerals is crazy.  It's very safe to just build Barracks for a while and then get add-ons later.  Makes Predator openings vs. Protoss more effective, I've found - Predators lost damage, but they still tank amazingly well, and the point of them was always to shield for Marine DPS, which effectively got boosted.  Also, that +15 mineral cost doesn't reduce the amount of structures you can build between gasses, so...yeah, potent.

Dark Stalkers are a bit too expensive...I think.  I don't know.  I've been playing with them, but still am not sure when and why I'd build them.  I'd like to see them made a bit cheaper, maybe an upgrade from the Cybernetics Core (270 for the Core, +100 for the unit conversion).  They seem like they fill the same role as Stalkers - to amass behind a wave that comes to support yours (i.e., a fast Zerg wave) and provide some early AA support (usually for a supporting fast Zerg wave).  Also, no AA limits them a bit (I know it wasn't the role they were designed for, but...).  They don't seem like they make that big of a difference, although maybe I need more (or the standard Archon+Outcast build I use is good enough).  I've been building 4-8 of them when I see Predators/Aberrations, but I always feel like Archons/Outcasts are a better option.  Still not sure what to do with them. 

Void Prisms are armoured/massive, I'm damn near sure, or at least they were last version!  If that's changed, then the Taints aren't as good vs. them as I thought...although they've worked wonders in practice.  In my experience so far, 1:1 of each spire works (ends up being 6 Taints and 12 Corruptors) for smaller numbers of air units (like 4 Prisms and some High Templar), and provides Colossus-killing power.  Although even if Void Prisms aren't armoured (and I'm fairly certain they are), the Taints still work well - they don't get stormed to death by High Templar and provide long-range fire support with good DPS.  It's the AtA unit Zerg's needed - also, yeah, as you identify, they're excellent more-so vs. Terran, since only Thors deal extra damage to them (but they spread really well, which helps alleviate the splash effect, unlike Corruptors).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K. on January 08, 2012, 10:03:25 AM
Was looking at some more Plants vs Zombies Endless Survival designs.  On the Xbox 360 version Cob Cannons are less attractive because there's no mouse control.  So this (or minor variants thereof) is considered to be a better design:

(http://s1.hubimg.com/u/1455997.jpg)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 08, 2012, 06:29:55 PM
Mmmm...I'm definitely familiar with cobless builds, but I'm not sure I'd recommend them for people with low mouse control.  The problem is that you need to be on top of your instants, which actually takes more APM on PC.  I think it would be a little troublesome to take that to wave 100.

That said, looks like 360 version doesn't require you to individually click every sun that shows  up, so that helps cobless builds.  (11 fewer clicks every sun cycle).  Also looks like 360 has two cursors, one on the plant bar, and one on the lawn, so you don't need to go rapidly back and forth.  So...instants, which on the PC version are about the same as a cob cannon, are probably faster on the 360 version.

On setup specifics...

I approve of the cattails--if you want to limit APM, they save you from using Blowvers.

I'm skeptical about only having 6 Twin Suns.  You're going to be instant-spamming.  I've used as many as 4-sunflowers when I was using a medium cob build (4 cob).  I'd be tempted to replace some of the redundant inner wintermelons with more twins.

I suspect you'll also be replacing the outer row pretty often.  The problem being the wake-up time on the second inner gloom.  On the inside, using that spot for a freezie means you're a little more vulnerable to inner jacks.  An inner jack disaster is manageable, because you have redundant glooms both in the pool and on the inner rows.  But yeah, it'll be an expensive job.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 18, 2012, 11:27:00 PM
If you've played Starjewelled against online people, you may have played against Plex once or twice, and thought "OMFG, is this person human?"  This is what Starjewelled looks like from Plex's perspective:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ3nCthQvRQ&
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 23, 2012, 07:14:29 AM
While we're at it, more plex:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAicQ6yZ_VI&

Onto metagame stuff that I'm realizing with horror I haven't covered.

Ultralisks are still extremely centralizing, but the metagame has begun to adapt.

Mass immortals is actually a viable strategy that I've seen used successfully many times.  The thing is, if everyone always freezes Ultras, and you make Immortals...what's your opponent going to do about it?  Freeze the immortals?  Now they're falling behind because they need to freeze three or four units and you just need to freeze two.  Don't freeze the immortals?  Immos can kill Ultras at an acceptably fast pace.  Storm the Immortals?  They take three storms to kill, and get fully healed by one heal wave.  Mass immortals actually does seem to counter mass ultras (as long as you never miss a Warp Cell).

Another strategy that I haven't fully experimented with yet, but which was working fairly well against me, is...Whenever you get to 1000 energy, 1x Colossus, 2x Banshee.  Just...completely blind.  If the opponent goes Ultras, then you have two Banshees already, and it probably backfires on them.  If your opponent goes Ghosts or Hydras, then the Colossus rips them up (Colo being more effective against these units than Ultralisks), and if they warp cell the Colossus, then storm does a number on them.  And...just in general, one of the weak point of Banshees is that while they do deal a ton of damage, they often waste it on Marines.  Colo is the best unit in the game for clearing out Marines.  Follow up is three or so Hydras (the same way double-Ultra tends to be followed up by some hydras as you get energy).  The funny thing is how none of this can actually kill cannons yet; Immortal seems to be the unit of choice for that.  This is quite spell-heavy, though, as it requires you to heal wave in response to storms.

I've also seen people who just blindly go for 4x Banshee openings, but these seem less good.  The cool thing about 2x Banshee is that they cost 500 Energy, whereas killing them with two storms costs 600 Energy.  4x Banshee can't claim that, and also loses to not terribly rare stuff like mass hydra.

Zealots appear to be a widely accepted counter to Mass Immortals.  They are not standard, though.

Roaches.  I've actually been incorporating them back into my arsenal.  It's gotten to the point that warp-celling Banshees is pretty standard.  Freeze your ultras, build a Banshee won't do much against good players.  But...what do you do if your opponent freezes your two Ultras and builds 8 Roaches?  You can't stop them from dealing damage--warp cell is not an option.  You could double-storm, but now you've spent as much on spells as I did on the original Roaches, and they still got their damage in.  Roaches are more of a defensive thing than a "look at my unstoppable army", however, as double-storm does stop them.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 25, 2012, 05:47:41 AM
Ok, tried to get a real read on unit HPs.

Marine- 2 cannon hits
Banshee- 8 cannon hits
Mutalisk- 6 cannon hits
Zealot: 4 cannon hits
Hydralisk: 6 cannon hits?
Roach- 9 cannon hits
Ghost- 5 cannon hits
Tank- 5 cannon hits
Immortal- 15 cannon hits
Colossus - 25ish cannon hits?
Ultralisk - 35ish cannon hits?

I'm fairly certain that Cannon damage is unchanged--which is to say, one cannon hit is 20 damage.  This seems to line up with Storm dealing 100 damage.  So...this puts my best estimates for HP at...

Marine: 30
Zealot: 80
Roach: 180
Hydralisk: 120
Ghost: 100
Mutalisk: 120
Banshee: 160
Tank: 100
Immortal: 300
Colossus: 500
Ultralisk: 700 (doesn't line up with Heal Wave's description, since Heal Wave heals more than half an Ultra's HP.  Possibly there's armor in the mix here?  Possibly my HP estimates are a little high?  Possibly it's due to zerg units having some passive regen--I suspect Mutalisk is actually 100 HP, and just regenerates the 1 HP required to survive a storm/five canon hits)

And yes, Hydralisks, Mutalisks, and Banshees all survive one storm.

Adjustments to this:

Mutalisk: 100 (they sometimes survive storm just due to regen, but not if there are any marines shooting at them).

Immortal--Clearly dies in three storms, suggesting about 250 HP, but takes more than 15 cannon hits to kill.

Roach: HP based on storm and HP based on cannons roughly matches.

Colossus: Storm tests  suggest pretty much exactly 400 HP.

Ultralisk: Actually took 8 storms to kill.  (I'll attribute this to HP regen, which means that yeah, 700 HP is accurate).


So...(all HP numbers approximate...)

Marine: 30
Zealot: 80
Roach: 180
Hydralisk: 120
Ghost: 100
Mutalisk: 100
Banshee: 160
Tank: 100
Immortal: 250
Colossus: 400
Ultralisk: 700

I'd like to do some damage tests too, but this is harder without a testing partner.  I do know that Ultralisks are about...

Ultralisk (dmg): 20 (+60 Armored)

Based on the fact that they 2HKO marines, but high 3HKO Roaches.  (This is all very much an estimate, though).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 20, 2012, 08:42:21 AM
Starjeweled, looking at unit statistics in the custom map editor.

Just to remind myself how to get there... (EDIT: thanks to Myself (the user of that name) for pointing me in the right direction)

Map -> Map Status -> look at stuff.

Most of these match my previous testing fairly well, but there's a lot of interesting damage bonuses (and some weird cooldown values that I don't think are right...EDIT: tested Marine and Hydra firing rate a little, they seem to match in-game o_O)

Photon Cannon:

800 HP, 3 armor
Damage: 20
Cooldown 0.8 (faster than in-game huh?)  (25 DPS)
Range: 10.5

Marine:

30 HP, 0 armor
Damage: 4
Cooldown 1.5 (wait, really?  Seems like that would be noticeable) (2.6 DPS)
Range 4

Zealot:
70 HP, 3 armor
Damage: 8 (+2 biological)   ---- (nb: I think this is x2 for the two hits.  I'll assume it is)
Cooldown: 1.2 (13.3 DPS, 16.7 DPS Biological)
Range: 0.1

Roach:
145 HP, 1 armor
Damage: 16 (+6 light)
Cooldown: 2.0 ( 11 DPS light, 8 DPS armored)
Range 4

Hydralisk:
110 HP, 0 armor
Damage: 8 (+2 armored)
Cooldown: 0.4 (WTF?? this can't be right?) (20 DPS light, 25 DPS armored)
Range 5

Ghost: (Side note: ghosts are biological Psionic, but not light; same as in-game, but something I didn't know)
100 HP, 0 armor
Snipe Damage: 40
Damage: 8 (+12 light)
Cooldown: 1.5 (13.3 DPS light, 5.3 DPS armored)
Range 6

Mutalisk:
100 HP, 3 armor
Damage: 30 + 20 + 10 (for each respective bounce hit)
Cooldown 1.5246 (39.4 DPS, or 19.6 DPS singletarget)
Range 5 (Wait, that high??)

Banshee:
125 HP, 3 armor
Damage: 15 (+15 armored)    ------- (nb: I think this is x2 for the two hits.  I'll assume it is.)
Cooldown 1.4 (21.4 DPS light, 42.8 DPS armored)
Range 6

Siege Tank:
100 HP, 1 armor
Damage: 18 (+40 structure)
Cooldown 2.0 (9 DPS, 29 DPS structure)
Range 11

Immortal
250 HP, 3 armor (plus hardened shields--didn't find where the shields were specified, I assume it's about 20 shields?)
Damage: 35 (+55 structure)
Cooldown 1.8 (19.4 DPS, 50 DPS structure)
Range: 5

Colossus
400 HP, 3 armor
Damage: 15 (+25 light)   ---------- (nb: I think this is x2 for the two hits.  I'll assume it is)
Cooldown: 2.2 (13.6 DPS armored, 36 DPS light)
Range 7

Ultralisk
500 HP, 5 armor
Damage: 16 (+52 armored)
Cooldown 0.861 (18.5 DPS light, 79 DPS armored)
Range 1
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 20, 2012, 09:04:50 AM
And of course, the thing that everyone cares about...fastest killing of cannons for the cost.  For the cost of 1000 energy you can deal....

Marines:
0.7 DPS per marine (but they're free!)

Zealots:
8.3 x20 = 166 DPS

Roaches:
6.5 x13.3 = 87 DPS

Hydralisks:
17.5 x10 = 175 DPS

Banshees:
38 x4 = 154 DPS

Immortals:
48 x3.33 = 161 DPS

Ultralisks:
75 x2 = 151 DPS
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 20, 2012, 09:21:21 AM
As far as killing air units goes...air units have high defence and aren't armored, so Hydras are held largely in check (only 12.5 DPS) buuut Ghosts kinda lack the raw stats to do better than that regardless (11.3 DPS).  Pretty close at the specialized task of just killing air, though.  One Mutalisk deals 34 DPS if all three bounces hit air (gamebest for the cost), but their AI doesn't prioritize air unlike hydra/ghost, and they are frailer (Espeically with hydra, ghost, and cannon AI prioritizing Mutas).

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 21, 2012, 04:38:00 AM
Spells

Most of the spells do exactly what they describe; Time Bomb is 50% time speed, for instance.  Heal Wave is the one interesting one; the stats in the editor are...

Heal Target 1: 4800
Heal Target 2: 2880
Heal Target 3: 1728
Heal Target 4: 1036
Heal Target 5: 622

Now, obviously these aren't the HP values healed.  My theory is that maybe this is the amount the effect would heal if it lasted a full second (or something) but each bounce of the Heal Wave is some increment of that, like 1/16 of a second.  Going by the 1/16 theory, that would make it...

Target 1: 300 HP
Target 2: 180 HP
Target 3: 108 HP
Target 4: 65 HP
Target 5: 39 HP

This has some interesting consequences.  Say you have five Hydras, and they get stormed.  You heal wave them.  Only three of them will be restored to full HP--the other two will actually be at risk of dying to the next storm.

The other interesting thing to note is the maximum range on grabbing next target: range 5.  (So an easy way to remember it is about the same range as the attack range for most of the units in the game).  Each of the four jumps can go an additional 5.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 21, 2012, 03:55:44 PM
So...confirmed thorugh testing: all the units I thought did double attacks (Zealot, Colossus, etc) do do double attacks.

Also, Movement speeds:

Photon Cannon: 0.0
Marine: 2.25
Zealot: 2.25 + 0.5 (plus charge ability) (EDITED)
Roach: 2.25
Hydralisk: 2.25
Ghost: 2.25
Mutalisk 3.75
Banshee: 2.75
Siege Tank: 2.25
Immortal: 2.25
Colossus: 2.25
Ultralisk: 2.25


Hmm...just some general musings on these stats...

If there were no spells, Ultras would actually be quite counterable, even with a pure ground army.  Mass Hydra with a trickle of Zealots to draw aggro (so that the Ultras attack a zealot rather than splashing a hydra).  That, however, could be countered by mass colossus, because colossus OHKO Zealots and high 2HKO hydras.  But Colossus get countered by...Ultras!

I'm thinking the problem with starjeweled balance is less the units and more the spells; particularly Storm shredding everything that counters ultras.

More interesting notes, though: these stats give a better explanation of why Provoker-style 1 colossus, 2 banshee, 3 hydra is so hard to deal with.  Colossus melts light units, and Banshees melt armor units.  Compositions like that make a strong case for using Ghosts, however--Ghosts aren't light, so don't melt when hit once by a Colossus.  (Not sure what to use for the rest of the wave; Ultras still melt to the double banshee.  Maybe just Colossus Banshee Ghost to counter Colossus Banshee Hydra?  Melt the Hydras, ghosts live long enough to gain a Banshee advantage...).

Defence stat: So...the defence stat adds an interesting dimension I was not previously aware of.  Let's say your opponent has a ton of marines out; what do you build?  High defence units can almost ignore marines.  For instance, it takes longer for marines to kill a Zealot than to kill a Roach, despite Roaches having double the HP.  Note: Ultras having 5 defence to Marine's 4 attack doesn't make them immune--in SC2 when you have >= defence than the opponent's attack, you take 0.5 damage per hit.  So...Ultras go down in 1000 marine shots....well ok more than that because they regen too, but marines can kill them eventually.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 22, 2012, 06:44:13 AM
Did a bit of testing, and Mirror is correct: Zealots are faster.  They seem to just have the Charge upgrade applied to them, Which in addition to the charge ability, adds a passive speed boost of 0.5 (bringing them up to 2.75, exactly equal to Banshees--which matches my in-game testing).  All other ground units do seem to move at identical speed, though.

Makes me wonder what other units have upgrades on them.  Marines obviously don't have stim or combat shield.  Roaches don't have speed.  What else is there...?  Hydra Range, Colossus range, Ghost energy, Ultralisk Defence, Cloak, Siege Mode.  I'm going to guess "no" on all of these.

Oh yeah, one extra set of stats:

Base (Armored Mechanical Structure):
400 HP, 1 defence, 0.398 regeneration rate (slightly higher than Zerg regeneration rate, which is 0.273).


Not too many surprises, except for the really low defence, which means it's vulnerable to everything (20 marines will kill it in about 10 seconds--you need to spam units).  And also the regeneration rate, which means that if you manage to pull off a decence you aren't screwed the next time they come anywhere close to your base.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 22, 2012, 07:38:14 AM
More stuff:

Immortal Shields: 2.  Immortal Shield regen: 0.  (I assume it's a modified version of Hardnened shields that reduces all damage to 1 instead of reducing all damage to 10)

But yes, immortals will never regenerate their shields, and this also explains why their shields seem to disappear instantly when stormed.  Also, even a marine will take off half their shields.




Speed at killing Ultras, for 1000 energy worth of units:

Zealots: 166 DPS
Roaches: 75 DPS
Hydralisks: 125 DPS
Ghost: 20 DPS (not counting snipe)
Muta (vs 3 targets): 147 DPS
Muta (vs 1 target): 82 DPS
Banshee: 142 DPS
Siege Tank: 22 DPS
Immortal: 55 DPS
Colossus: 18 DPS (assumes singletarget)
Ultralisk: 146 DPS (assumes singletarget)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 23, 2012, 11:00:37 AM
So...who actually wins in a fight, assuming pure concentrations of each unit, and all units are able to instantly get into range?

Since I know I have a couple of new readers, I'll do a quick review of some ancient RTS formulae

Let's say there's a 2v1 unit situation, where two smaller units fight one bigger unit.  Let's say the only difference between the units is HP.  The way to get this balanced is for the "big" unit to have 3x the HP of the "small" units.  It will lose 2/3 of its HP before the first unit dies, and 1/3 of its HP fighting the second unit.  In a 3v1 you need 6, and in general to balance things you need

Ratio = (n+1)*n/2

Which we can solve with the quadratic formula, so...

n = 1/2*(-1+sqrt(1+8*Ratio))

For any isolated unit matchup, we can get the relative durability ratio pretty easily, which lets us compute the numerical difference at which they'd be balanced.


Zealot
Vs Marine: 10:1
Vs Roach: 1:1.17 (cost effective, but barely)
Vs Hydra: 1:1.11 (cost effective)
Vs Ghost: 1.15:1 (cost effective--well...assuming we ignore Snipe...)
Vs Siege Tank: 1.07:1 (cost effective.  In fact, one zealot beats one Siege Tank...sad)
Vs Immortal: 1:2.9 (cost effective, but not by as much as you'd think)
Vs Colossus assuming no splash: 1:6 (cost effective but barely
Vs Colossus assuming maximum splash: 1:22 (lol)
Vs Ultra assuming no splash: 1:4 (cost effective)
Vs Ultra assuming maximum splash: 1:12 (roughly cost-even)

Roach
Vs Marine: 5.6:1
Vs Zealot: 1.17:1 (mildly cost inefficient)
Vs Hydra: 1:1.28 (roughly cost-even)
Vs Ghost: 1.67:1 (very cost efficient)
vs Siege Tank: 1.18:1 (Does a single Siege Tank beat ANYTHING?  Seriously, lol)
vs Immortal: 1:2.5 (mildly cost efficient)
vs Colossus assuming no splash: 1:2.7 (cost efficient)
vs Colossus assuming maximal splash: 1:5 (still kinda cost efficient)
vs Ultra assuming no splash: 1:8.0 (mildly cost inefficient)
vs Ultra assuming maximum splash: 1:36 (lol)

Hydralisk
vs Marines: 6.8:1
vs Zealots: 1.11:1 (cost inefficient)
vs Roaches: 1.28:1
vs Ghost: 1.42:1 (note: doesn't account for Snipe--that should even things up)
vs Muta: 1:1.9 (about cost-equal...)
vs Banshee: 1:1.45 (mildly cost-efficient)
vs Siege Tank: 2.0:1 (very cost-efficient)
vs Immortal: 1:1.5 (cost-efficient)
vs Colossus without splash: 1:3.3 (mildly cost-efficient)
vs Colossus with splash: 1:7 (mildly cost inefficient)
vs Ultra without splash: 1:3 (mildly cost efficient)
vs Ultra with splash: 1:6.6

Siege Tank
vs Marines: 4.5:1 (Ok, this is quite sad.  The 10 marines produced by building up to 300 energy would kick the crap out of the siege tank you could buy with that energy)
vs Zealots: 1:1.07
vs Roaches: 1:1.17
vs Hydras: 1:1.97
vs Ghosts: 1.5:1
vs Immortal: 1:3
vs Colossus assuming no splash: 1:3
vs Colossus assuming maximal splash: 1:6
vs Ultra assuming no splash: 1:9
vs Ultra assuming maximal splash: 1:45

Ladies and gentlemen, the least cost efficient unit in the game, where every matchup is cost inefficient, and the only question is how MUCH cost inefficiency there is.  At least Tanks don't lose to a solo Ghost?

Immortal:
vs Marine: 20:1
vs Zealot: 2.9:1 (cost inefficient)
vs Roach: 2.7:1
vs Hydra: 1.6:1 (cost inefficient)
vs Ghost: 4.9:1 (cost efficient)
vs Siege Tank: 3.3:1 (cost efficient)
vs Colossus: 1.15:1 (assuming no splash)
vs Ultra assuming no splash: 1:3.0 (cost inefficient)
vs Ultra assuming maximal splash: 1:6.0 (cost inefficient)

Colossus (no splash / Maximal splash)
vs Marines: 32:1 / 545:1
vs Zealots: 6:1 / 22:1
vs Roach: 2.7:1 / 5:1
vs Hydra: 3:1 / 7:1
vs Ghost: 5:1 / 15:1
vs Siege Tank: 3:1 / 6:1
vs Immortal: 1.01:1
vs Ultralisk: 1:3.8 / 1:9 (if the Ultra splashes maximally)

Ultralisk (no splash / Maximal splash)
vs Marines: 41:1 / 871:1
vs Zealots: 4.3:1 / 11.6:1
vs Roaches: 8:1 / 36:1
vs Hydra: 3:1 / 6.6:1
vs Ghosts: 8:1 / 41:1
vs Siege Tanks: 9:1 / 45:1
vs Immortals: 3:1 / 6:1
vs Colossus: 4:1 / 9:1

Hmm...I'll edit the rest in later.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2012, 03:28:58 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot

This is a terrible, unbalanced SC2 map.  There are several blatantly obvious ways to just break the map provided everyone is coordinated, and the only way the map functions at all is by taking advantage of idiots.  I don't actually recommend playing it necessarily.

And yet, it has a shiny appeal to me.  Possibly I just like exponents.


The core mechanic involves upgrading your income building, and each time you upgrade, your income doubles.  Now, exponents are powerful: there's a very obvious way to exploit this, by players pooling all their money and having one person upgrade first, and then refund everyone who helped them upgrade once they have higher income.  Just how good is this strategy?

Actually...not as overpowered as you might expect.  Let's math.

Two players pool their resources, and one player upgrades in half the time.
Then that player sends resources to the first player, until they can upgrade.

If x is your income, the first player gets 2x income, and then the second player gets 3x income.  Which means overall the time spent is...

1/2t + 1/3t = 5/6t

So...83% of the time it would take acting independently, or 20% faster.  What happens if three people coordinate?

1/3t + 1/4t + 1/5t = 47/60t

So...78% of the time it would take acting independently, or 28% faster.

Well...what if you had a ton of people working together, like 100, how good would it be?

Sum(1/x) where x = n .. (2n-1)

But we can rewrite this as

1/n * Sum( n / (n+x) ) = 1/n * Sum( 1/(1+x/n) )
for x = 0... n-1

But this should look familiar--this is just the construction of the integral.  If we take the limit as n goes to infinity, this would give us the integral of 1/x evaluated between (1,2), which is...

ln(2) - ln(1) = ln(2) = 0.69

In other words, with infinitely many people it would reduce the time to 69% of the original, or 44% faster.

Which is to say, in a game of horrible imbalance, sharing resources...really isn't mind-blowingly imbalanced, no matter how many people do it.


Also: whee, a use for calculus.  Can't say I use it very often these days.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 30, 2012, 08:58:42 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot

So...there's this interesting mechanic with the miners.  The first four miners are relatively straightforward:

cost: effect

512: mines 1 mineral once every 8 seconds
1024: mines 1 mineral once every 4 seconds
2048: mines 1 mineral once every 2 seconds
4096: mines 1 mineral once every second

I think everyone can see these are about equal.  But then we get to...

20480: mines 6 minerals every second

For the cost, this is more efficient than anything that came before it.  It's the same cost as five L4 miners, but it mines as much as six L4 miners.  And up the chain it goes.

81920: mines 36 minerals every second
262144: mines 216 minerals every second
1000000: mines 1296 minerals every second

The L6 is even more cost-efficient, the L7 is yet more cost-efficient, and the L8 is more cost-efficient than that.

Now, my first instinct was to go for the biggest bang for the buck.  Save up for a L8 very early.  The problem is that this is an RTS--when you spend money on miners, that means you're going to collect additional money and be able to buy more stuff later.  So...what's the optimal route here?



The answer depends on additional variables.  It's a double feedback loop.  You can use gas to buy miners who get you minerals, and you can use minerals to generate more gas.  Turning minerals back into gas is fairly expensive, but everyone gets one (and only one) gas generator that generates 512.  Outside of this generator, however, it's reasonably expensive to produce gas.  With 1024 minerals, you can create a gas generator that produces 32 gas per second (increasing your gas generation by 6%!)

I'd love to say that I pulled out a clever solution here, but in the end I just plugged these numbers into a spreadsheet, and the results that I found were...

1. Don't get a L5 miner (the ones that mine 6 minerals per second).  At least not after your gas generator has been upgraded to produce 512 a second.  Extra gas generation is just so expensive compared to L5 miners, that they don't really create a worthwhile feedback loop, so you might as well just save up for the bargain.

2a. When solo, get two L6s, then move on.  (Or one and move on, but two seems to be slightly ahead).  There's enough of a feedback loop that this will double up your gas generation (From 512 to 1100 or so) before you're doing L7s, which my spreadsheet suggests is worth it.

2b. When teaming up and sharing resources, skip directly to L7s.  Two people together have 1024 gas income, which is too fast to get much of a boost out of a L6.

3. Get 3 L7s.  Regardless of how many people are teaming up; just...get 3 L7s.  (Getting two also works, and is almost tied but slightly worse).  This was a bit of a surprise to me; I'd expect it to at least vary by number of people sharing resources, but according to the spreadsheet, even if you're four people, you still want three L7s for the group pool before moving on to L8s.  Part of this is that the kind of gas income you generate off of L7s while you build up to L8s dwarfs the default gas production.  (Usually builds up to 7000 gas per second, roughly, before you get your first L8).

4. Max out on L8s, deleting as needed.


Interesting dynamic, anyhow--wasn't remotely obvious what the best way was to go pure econ.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 31, 2012, 04:10:12 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot

So...new build tricks I hadn't thought of before.



1. Die.  If you're doing a multi-person team-up, have one person salvage all their stuff and die, then come back as a booster to boost mining.  According to my spreadsheet calculations, this is literally worth doing (and a huge advantage) as soon as you get the first L7 miner out, and worth doing even if you have only two people in your team-up.  There are downsides, of course--eventually, 20 minutes later, your teammate will hit the population cap.

EDIT: ok, I made a mistake in my theorycrafting: the Probe helpers actually only boost mining speed by 10%, instead of 50%, which is a lot less sexy.  Certainly you don't want to become a helper after just one L7--the loss of 512 gas income is not worth it.  Possibly by the time you perfect it's worth doing, though, as now you're losing maybe 5% of your team's gas income, and the mineral income is more important anyway.  But...it's only 10%; hard to get excited about.

2. Salvage your generator for a gas boost to get big miner milestones.  It's worth 25550, so...worth roughly the gas it would produce in 60 seconds.  This will generally only get you your first L7 miner 30 seconds earlier, granted, and you lose a bunch of gas production and will want to re-buy the generator, which will slow you down later, so you end up maaaaybe 10 seconds ahead, but you do seem to end up slightly ahead.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2012, 04:46:38 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot

Man, I'm playing this way too much.

Interesting strategies:

Entrapment: get a wall on both sides of the zealot, and then build turrets.  The zealot has a teleport, but it has a 3 minute cooldown, so you can either do this twice (once to force the teleport, and once to kill) or watch the zealot and see if it teleports.  This only really works earlygame.

Turning off auto-repair:  Auto-repair just takes away your control in a whole lot of situations, and can get you killed if there's nearby objects to be repaired outside of your wall.

Salvage and run: The zealot only econs by dealing damage.  Probes have blink and a lockdown effect, and can salvage all their buildings and hide somewhere else.  Very effective at denying econ to the zealot, probably as good or better than turrets.

Avoiding reveal: I think (but am not sure) that if you salvage your nexus and build a new one immediately, that you won't be without a nexus for long enough for the Zealot to get a minimap view of where the new nexus is building.  Would be good to test this....

On the Zealot end....

Stacking:
HP, Damage, and Regen all stack.  Armor and attack speed do not.

Zealot damage:
Obviously you care a lot about DPS, as that's your econ.  L1 damage is a 20% boost.  L1 weapon speed is a 20% boost.  The L2s are 40%.  The L3s are 80%.  But then we diverge--L4 speed is a 100% boost, and L4 damage is a 160% boost.  After that we go back to doubling both price and effect (so L5 damage is 320%, L5 speed is 200%).  Which means...most of the time we have the optimization problem of "max out x*(T-x)" where the goal is to make them both the same.  So...at what point does it become optimal to upgrade to L5 speed over L3 speed?  Is it ever optimal to get L4 speed?
The answer seems to be: L3 and L5 are break-even when you have 2900 minerals, so 1300 minerals on weapon damage, 1600 minerals on weapon speed.  L4 is never, ever optimal.  Basically, because L4 is so bad, you want to make the jump to L5 -early-, spending more on speed than on damage.
Well...what about the jump from L5 to L6?  Surely that will be symmetrical spending with weapon upgrades, right?  Actually....no.  The break-even point for those two is at 5100 minerals, which means 3200 spent on weapon speed, and 1900 spent on damage.  Two different factors at work here.  First, it's not a 1:1 ratio of money to effect--it's a 1:1 ratio of money to percentage bonus.  The ratio between a 200% bonus and a 400% bonus is actually 5:3.  Then again, the ratio between a 320% bonus and a 640% bonus is actually 1.76:1 (slightly better for the same cost jump).  But the big factor is that...because damage bonuses stack, damage is relatively continuous, whereas weapon speed is very quantized.

Zealot durability:
You have one unit.  You cannot lose that one unit or the entire team loses (not like probes; half the time when a probe dies I think "thank goodness").  Your choices for durability are HP, Regen, and damage reduction.  HP lets you survive the biggest beating.  Regen lets you survive indefinitely against some defences.  Damage reduction supports both the regen strategies and the HP strategies.  My general opinion for the first 50% of the game is "Screw regen, HP all the way, with maybe some token damage reduction for quadratic effects."  The thing is, you don't want to stay forever; you want to grind out some damage, and then return to home base and buy better gear (and you get to heal to full at home base).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 16, 2012, 03:17:38 AM
Magic the Gathering

So...every once in a while I do this mental exercise to figure out how much the power 9 would cost if reprinted today just with different mana costs.  Specifically, they must be tournament-viable at the new costs, but not overpowered to the point of banning.

Ancestral Recall (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=692) (+4 mana)

This one is fairly easy, because it has basically already been done.  sup (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205015).  There was definitely a time when I wondered if 5 mana would be too powerful--because they were shying away from making instant-speed card drawing at all, and cards like Inspiration (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45246) had been very powerful in the past to the point that they won't reprint them.  But...then Jace's Ingenuity got printed, and was...not bad, but not dominant.

Time Walk (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=728) (+3 mana)

Done (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191379).  Not a whole lot to say about this one.  It saw tournament play, did some decent things, but was not dominant.  Add even one more mana (see Walk of the Aeons (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=110517)) and it's trash.

Moxes (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=629) (+2 mana)

Ok, there's no exact parallel for these (which is a little surprising) but there is...

Mind Stone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189228) (Trades coloured mana for the ability to draw a card later when you don't need extra mana).
Diamond cycle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=15854) (Same idea, except comes into play tapped, and was not considered all that good).
Prismatic Lens (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=118880) (Same idea, except can produce mana of any colour, but at an extra cost)
Talisman Cycle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=39598) (Same idea, except it's an ice age pain land instead of a basic land)
Signet cycle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247195) (Same idea, except can't immediately tap for mana on turn 2, but can immediately tap for mana any turn after that...and produces two colours).

So...yeah, for all that they've never explicitly been done (which is weird), 2 mana seems like it would be correct.

Black Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=600) (+3 mana)

Ok, so this one is kinda tricky.  The current status of ritual type effects is that...they're not doing them.  They belong to red now, but red gets like...Pyretic Ritual (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205067), which is actually too weak to get played (and thus would not pass my qualification test).  But at the same time, an artifact that did the same thing but significantly better for 2 mana would not be kosher.  Ok, so 2 mana's out.

So...what about 3 mana?  You put 3 mana in one turn, and get 3 mana out the next turn?  Well...there are some parallels for that.  Pentad Prism (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205331) is a similar idea, but with 2 mana stored, and 2 mana received.  Coalition Relic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209158) is a 3 mana card that can produce 2 mana of any colour the turn after you play it (and keep on producing mana after that).  So...I -think- 3 would be acceptable.  Another strong argument for 3 is Lotus Bloom (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=114904), which if you suspend it on the first turn, can be cracked for mana on the fourth turn.  Note that 3 mana would probably make it decently powerful (Pentad Prism is pretty powerful too).  But that's ok, we want it to be a tournament-playable card, right?

As for higher costs...there really aren't good parallels at 4 mana (maybe Everflowing Chalice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220534) kicked twice?)  At 5 mana Gilded Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48189) exists (and was pretty much ignored).

I have one voice in my head suggesting it might be overpowered at 3 mana, and another voice saying that at 3 mana it's actually almost certainly worse than Lotus Bloom, the same way Ancestral Vision (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189244) turned out to be better than Concentrate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45262).  Shows up on about the same turn, but you end up paying less mana for it.  So...probably balanced at 3.

Timetwister (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=729) (+0 mana???)

So...............................this one is going to be the hardest, and is the real reason I started thinking about these again.  A couple of years ago, they printed Time Reversal (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=245187), which theoretically should answer my question for me, right?  Well...wrong, turns out Time Reversal sucks.  In two years of being legal, it hasn't shown up in a single tournament top 8 that I can find.

So...here's the thing about Time Reversal.  There's this little card called Tidings (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=129770) which is...not necessarily the best 5-mana draw spell ever printed, but it's serviceable, and tends to show up in tournaments.  So...for a 5 mana sorcery, that's the water mark you want to hit: equivalent of draw 4 cards.  Or: end up +3 cards from where you started.  In order to do this with Time Reversal, you need one of the following scenarios:

Your Hand: 1 card  ......... Opponent's Hand: 4 cards
Your Hand: 2 cards  ....... Opponent's Hand: 5 cards
Your Hand: 3 cards  ....... Opponent's Hand: 6 cards
Your Hand: 4 cards  ....... Opponent's Hand: 7 cards

So...you're relying on your opponent to have 4+ cards left in hand when you hit five mana (which, for a typical deck, is probably somewhere in the range of turn 5-7).  Which means if they play a land every turn, then they've cast an average of one spell every two turns.  Most decks just don't play like that.  And the few that do are probably going to counterspell you anyway.

And to add a little bit more fuel to the fire, they just revealed this card: Reforge the Soul (http://sales.starcitygames.com/carddisplay.php?product=392419) which is a wheel of fortune that costs 5 most of the time, but can occasionally cost 2.

Now, let's disregard for the moment the part where "Timetwister is power 9 and Wheel of Fortune is not because Timetwister is blue and blue is the best colour!"  That doesn't really hold water anymore.  These days, the colours are pretty similar power, which means a card that does better when you can empty your hand is better in a colour that likes to empty its hand quickly (see: red).  Furthermore, the average blue deck runs cards like Ponder (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=244313) and Impulse (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=26616) which means that...even if said blue deck has the exact same number of cards in hand as its opponent, the average card quality in the blue hand would be better, so making both players toss their hand and redraw would generally be disadvantageous to the blue mage.

But can I really argue for 4 with a straight face?  I mean, isn't this the lesson taught to us by Diminishing Returns (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=159090) that draw 7s are just plain powerful?  I mean, that card still gets played in Legacy (type 1.5 for the old school in the audience).  But...here's the thing--that card gets powered off of dark ritual type effects; where if you draw 7, you can turn those 7 into mana right away.  That's not really possible anymore.

Ok, so 4 mana comparisons, I guess the card to look at would be Concentrate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45262).  You'd need two fewer cards in hand, say, 2 cards in your hand, 4 cards in your opponents hand, but that sounds doable on turn 4.  Doable, but doesn't sound like "Pfft, blue decks would do that all the time", so you'd need a specialized deck.  This card still definitely won't be touched by the traditional blue control deck.  Maybe a combo or aggro deck with blue in it (and there's a fair few of those lately).

But I'm still not thrilled by it; I'm struggling to think of an existing deck that actually runs it (part of the problem there being that flashback is back, and quite important to blue right now, so blue doesn't want to shuffle its own graveyard away).  Well...what about 3 mana then?  Yes, I know that's the original cost; bear with me.  The relevant comparison here would be....I guess Divination? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262848)  Div's definitely on the weak end.  Thing is, to match div's +1 card advantage, you'd really only need one less card in hand than your opponent, which is very easy to achieve.  You can often pull off -1 or -2 cards in hand just by being first player; never mind the other variables.  And if you pull off -2 or more, then it's a huge swing for the cost (+2 total card advantage).

Ok, 3 CMC is maybe too inexpensive I guess.  Back to 4 CMC I suppose.  Would 4 CMC get played at all?  Hmm...I could maybe see it in certain kinds of decks; nothing current because of how much blue wants to keep its graveyard for flashback, but in a year or so sure.  Alternatively, would 3 CMC be completely busted and banworthy?  Well...Compulsive Research (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=87991) was never anywhere close to getting banned, and would be pretty close to "draw 3 cards" sometimes, and went into every kind of deck.  Jace Beleren (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205960) is basically draw 3 cards, never even close to being banned.  Jace's Archivist (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220244) is literally a timetwister style ability, repeatable, on a 3 mana creature, in standard, and has seen absolutely no play, and is dirt cheap.

Huh, ok.  I'm leaning back into the "maybe 3CMC is ok" camp.  Let's just quickly rule out 2CMC.  Night's Whisper (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=51178) is a very, very good card used in just about every deck type.  Matching the card advantage from it is pretty trivial (have 1 less card in hand than your opponent) and significantly outperforming it is common.  Yep, definitely no 2CMC.

But 3CMC I'm not sure; would be curious to see.  Probably make it cost more specific mana (1UU or UUU) just because of the whole "Doesn't benefit typical blue decks" (but would significantly benefit, say, a red burn deck that's just splashing for a quick hand refill).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on April 16, 2012, 03:33:01 AM
I'm curious to see what you'd think of recosting other early edition low-cost, restricted cards such as Sol Ring, Fork, Demonic Tutor, Balance, and Regrowth. (Note that I'm pretty out of the loop and it's possible that some of those are reasonable enough to be brought back as is, depending on what the metagame looks like these days.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on April 16, 2012, 03:56:16 AM
Fork effectively is back in two separate forms. Reverberate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233722) and Increasing Vengeance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262661). Neither are particularly playable at the moment.

Balance is still banned in Legacy and restricted in Vintage, so that one would be interesting to look at.

Sol Ring.. Yeah, they've tried that a few times, so I suppose it could be good to look at? The closest available in Standard at the moment is Palladium Myr (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=212251) - a 3 mana creature.

Demonic Tutor is now Diabolic Tutor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=221519) which has been in the last 2-3 core sets, at least, and has seen practically no play. At 4 mana, it's just too expensive, but at 3 mana, it would be too good.

Regrowth's an interesting one. Reclaim (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=226903) and a better version of it, Noxious Revival (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=230067), are both available at the moment, which are effectively Regrowth for 1 mana instead of 2, but skip your next draw. And, yet again, they're completely unplayed, even as sideboard cards.


The one that amuses me, though, is looking at Time Walk. Avacyn Restored brings us a beautiful little card called Temporal Mastery (http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=129834&d=1333944194) which.. I can't see -not- being in a blue deck, especially given the mass of Delver of Secrets (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=226749) decks running around, and Ponder (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=244313) being back in Standard. Was Time Warp too weak for them? Maybe, maybe they just want something big to show off in Avacyn Restored, maybe they want to steal some of the power away from White at the moment. I'm interested to see how this one plays out, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Cmdr_King on April 16, 2012, 04:02:22 AM
Strikes me that the simplest thing to do to Balance is split it into different cards.  Though I wonder if they'd see use.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on April 16, 2012, 04:24:07 AM
Quote
Regrowth's an interesting one. Reclaim and a better version of it, Noxious Revival, are both available at the moment, which are effectively Regrowth for 1 mana instead of 2, but skip your next draw. And, yet again, they're completely unplayed, even as sideboard cards.

To be fair, not only is "skip your next draw" a pretty bad drawback, it's actually underselling the problem here... you don't get the card until your next draw action, which unless you have some way to get cards out of your library quickly means you (a) can't use the card you regrew this turn, and (b) telegraph a fair deal about your next turn.

EDIT: Oh, they're instants. Never mind about the telegraphing part, and the (a) drawback is reduced to a one-turn delay after acquiring Reclaim/etc.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 16, 2012, 04:52:01 AM
I'm curious to see what you'd think of recosting other early edition low-cost, restricted cards such as Sol Ring, Fork, Demonic Tutor, Balance, and Regrowth. (Note that I'm pretty out of the loop and it's possible that some of those are reasonable enough to be brought back as is, depending on what the metagame looks like these days.)

Sol Ring (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247533) (+3 mana?)

Ok, first things first, let's take a moment to note that mana burn no longer exists.  Gone from the game.  Sol Ring got better due to that little rule change.


Now....this one's a pain in the ass, because it's right in between 3 and 4.

At 3 we get it with drawbacks or super conditionally on cards nobody plays like...

Palladium Myr (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=212251)
Myr Resevoir (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=215114)
Worn Powerstone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=210137) (which...I don't even know, this might be considered too powerful now even though it comes into play tapped?  It's an Urza card after all.  EDIT: yeah, Worn Powerstone actually saw first-place finish tournament play in the Urza era in the same deck as stuff like Grim Monolith.  An outright upgrade is probably not kosher).

And at 3 mana, people will play the "add 1 mana with marginal upside" cards.  Take a look at Pristine Talisman (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233074)--yeah, that card's been showing up in tournaments lately.  Yes really.

But at 4 mana...Everflowing Chalice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220534) makes it look really bad.  I guess Chalice was a top tier card, and this might be a marginal card at 4 mana, so that would be ok?



Fork (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=202493) (+0 mana)

So uhh...yeah reverberate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233722), or if you just want to copy your own stuff, Increasing Vengeance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262661) has flashback.  I think Reverberate is used occasionally as a sideboard against counterspell decks?  It's definitely around, but not dominant.

Demonic Tutor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=202628) (+1 mana)

So well, there's Diabolic Tutor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=221519) but it's atrocious--it's been legal pretty much constantly for the past 10 years, and was only relevant about 10 years ago (in the Cabal Coffers (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205421) deck which has approximately infinite mana anyhow).

Beseech the Queen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205399) actually gets played in normal decks, though.  And you can cast it for BBB.  Well...here's the thing, mind you.  Tutor effects for 3 are good.  Really quite good.  People used Dimir House Guard (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=87926).  But nobody plays Diabolic tutor.  I don't know that a flat out format-defining tutor at 3 would be anything banworthy, though.  Good, and a bit format warping, sure, but I don't think it'd be banned.

Balance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=202501) (+4?? ?? mana)

Uhhh.....well.....

Restore Balance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=113520) didn't get played, but warning your opponent six turns in advance about this kind of effect...yeah, let's them avoid the worst of it.  And they tried to do Balancing Act (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=31819) at 4, but that was also kind-of overpowered.

Balance in particular is "cards in hand, creatures, and lands".  You can play around these.  Replace lands with artifacts (the Borderpost (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220521) cycle pretty blatantly lets you swap out, in fact).  Play with flashback cards or reanimation cards so that you get advantages from discarding.  Use planeswalkers instead of creatures.

I'm going to say 6 mana, because people do play wrath of god/day of judgement variants at 6 mana, so it feels like it'd find a home at 6 mana.  But I'm not entirely sure if 6 mana is high enough.  Like I said, they've never successfully brought back anything quite like a newly costed Balance; I don't really have datapoints I can work with, other than "they failed at 4, even though the 4 mana one was harder to abuse".

Regrowth (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=202461) (+0 mana)

Note that there is an argument for +1.  Recollect (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=130507) got tournament play...although arguably only because of the cards around it; I don't think it would go anywhere in the current format.  Nature's Spiral (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=207338) exists and is weaker.  On the other hand, Nature's Spiral sees very minimal play, and Eternal Witness (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247148) exists.  (And, honestly, in most decks Eternal Witness is a better card than Regrowth.  Yes, in Legacy/Vintage Type 1/Type 1.5 formats regrowth tends to be banned/restricted because of the Storm mechanic and dark ritual variants, but I don't think they're ever bringing the storm mechanic back in a new set, and dark ritual type spells are all but nonexistant these days).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 17, 2012, 01:56:41 AM
Revive exists, too, as far as Regrowth variants. ( http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45433 ).  Different drawback than Nature's Spiral, still a nerf.  Eternal Witness is above the curve and saw play *everywhere*, inclined to think a Regrowth reprint would be similar - not format dominating, but a staple in Green decks.

Believe it or not, Pyretic Ritual sees play in Modern storm decks since Rite of Flame got banhammered.  2 Storm decks made Top 8 of hte most recent Modern Pro Tour, and had 7 Pyretic Rituals among them: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gptur12/welcome#1

But yeah, Pyretic sees play strictly because Storm is one of those mechanics that becomes more and more insane with a large card pool, and they're just playing spells for the sake of playing spells.  Since Storm is never coming back, its use anywhere else is limited.  (And I'd honestly be pretty cool with banning more Storm cards, though I'm not even certain where to begin.  I don't play competitively but Storm is a classic example of a fishbowl deck.  There are hosers, yes, but you don't really interact with Storm, and Storm doesn't interact back.  Maybe just go to the source and ban Empty the Warrens, Grapeshot, and Dragonstorm?!)

Timetwister for 3 mana sounds right, although I suspect they'd want to cost it as UU1 now.  Timetwister is best when you can just dump your hand incredibly quickly, but don't care about the graveyard, so something like a Rakdos aggro strategy - a UU1 costing would make it harder for psychotically aggressive red decks to toss it in as a cheap way to refuel.

Balance is super-hard to balance because leaving out artifacts (and now, Planeswalkers) is just asking for players to cheat in deck construction.  It can easily be "6 mana: you win the game," but thanks to power creep, maybe WotC is okay with that now.  I'd gutcheck 6 mana might be okay in an environment where Balance was very hard to exploit, and 7 mana otherwise.  Of course, thanks to Planeswalkers generally being at least borderline playable and often even better, I suspect 7 mana is the safer choice.  Balancing Act is a better reprint, because it's much harder to "cheese"; Balancing Act decks had to play all Invasion sac-lands to guarantee hitting 0 permanents, which is a scary proposition - "sac all my lands, cast Balancing Act, oops you countered it" is kind of game over.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 17, 2012, 06:47:07 AM
Eternal Witness is above the curve and saw play *everywhere*,

But it has also been banned nowhere.  (It's a Mirrodin card too--when they ban they like to ban a bunch of cards at the same time, which they did for Mirrodin; Witness was not one of them).  Even post-banning, I'm looking at, oh, US Nationals decklists from 2005 where only one deck is running Eternal Witness.  Well...maybe that's not fair, since in 2005 Japan was completely dominant.  Looking at Japan Nationals, there's three Tooth decks running Eternal Witness, but NONE of them are running it as a 4-of (2-of in two cases, 3-of in another).

Honestly, witness wasn't even one of those cards that was painful and format-warping, where it wasn't banned but everyone still breathed a sigh of relief when it left the format.  I'm looking at you, Tarmogoyf (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=136142).  Tooth and Nail (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48122).  Just to name a couple of green ones.  I'll agree with calling it "above the curve" but depending on how you define "the curve", you tend to need to be above it to be tournament-relevant.

Quote
inclined to think a Regrowth reprint would be similar - not format dominating, but a staple in Green decks.

I'm skeptical, actually; If Revive and Nature's Spiral were mostly fringe, Regrowth probably would be as well.  I'm looking at Ghoulcaller's Chant (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220021) as well here (note that Zombies are a currently viable deck; this card is still unplayed).  Your graveyard just isn't that great of a place to find stuff.

Quote
Believe it or not, Pyretic Ritual sees play in Modern storm decks since Rite of Flame got banhammered.  2 Storm decks made Top 8 of hte most recent Modern Pro Tour, and had 7 Pyretic Rituals among them: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gptur12/welcome#1

But yeah, Pyretic sees play strictly because Storm is one of those mechanics that becomes more and more insane with a large card pool, and they're just playing spells for the sake of playing spells.  Since Storm is never coming back, its use anywhere else is limited.  (And I'd honestly be pretty cool with banning more Storm cards, though I'm not even certain where to begin.  I don't play competitively but Storm is a classic example of a fishbowl deck.  There are hosers, yes, but you don't really interact with Storm, and Storm doesn't interact back.  Maybe just go to the source and ban Empty the Warrens, Grapeshot, and Dragonstorm?!)

Yeah, I'm aware; just like Lava Spike (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=79084) is good in Legacy burn...but in Standard was a terrible card.

I'm really evaluating purely the power level in Standard here (otherwise Timetwister would not be 3 CMC, because yeah, that card is good in storm + ritual decks).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 07, 2012, 06:40:53 PM
Pobes vs Zeelot

Gold mineral patches:

Here's how they work (or so I've been told; seems to line up with observation, though).  When your miner mines, if it's on gold, it will get an extra +1 minerals.  This is regardless of the quantity that they mine (so perfect miners are 1296+1) but does depend on the frequency in which they mine.  What this means is that the first four miners are doubled in their output, and all higher miners are largely unaffected.  But this changes the cost-efficiency of the miners.

L1-L4: costs 2048 gas for every 1 min/sec
L5: costs 2925 gas for every 1 min/sec
L6: costs 2214 gas for every 1 min/sec
L7: costs 1208 gas for every 1 min/sec
L8: costs 771 gas for every 1 min/sec

Which is interesting; implies that it might be worth spamming some L4s after reaching max gen (but only when on gold) as they're both more granular (allowing the exponential feedback loop to kick in quicker) and more cost-efficient.

There is, however, the little issue of the population cap.  You can make at most 15 L4s (and realistically fewer; don't want to go over 13 if you plan on building mines, and if you have to blow up a lower level miner to get them, their efficiency drops, so maybe 10 at most).  10 Prof miners is...20 minerals per second income, which is about half that of one L6 (Ultra miners mine 36 minerals per second).

Still...seems probably worth-it, particularly since the whole point of getting ultras at all is to kickstart your gas income (as two ultras give you double to triple gas income by the time you get Legendary, which means you don't get Legendary that much slower, and get your second Legend faster as your gas is already flowing).  Advanced spam will let you start the gas flow a little earlier.  The downside, though, is that golds are often undefendable and taken as a ninja, so you could lose all that income.



Anyhow, so some more thoughts on gold miners:

2048 gas buys you ~1 min/sec income.
At the market, you can generally sell 10 minerals for ~200 gas (although it varies between 0 and 400).

Ergo, in an average market, it takes about 100 seconds for a miner to pay for itself.  100 seconds, coincidentally, tends to be roughly the time between most gen upgrades.  So...you end up in the same place for gas income, but with extra mineral income; a clear advantage.  There is an argument for buying pretty much all of your miners all at once, probably on the gen that takes the longest to upgrade (which I believe is gen 7, which requires getting both mega wall 1, and the wall before mega wall 1).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2012, 07:11:03 PM
I just realized that I made an assumption that wasn't true in prior zealot calculations.

I assumed that the first three levels of damage up bonus would be the same percentage bonus as the first three levels of attack speed bonus.  I.e. 100 minerals gets you a 20% bonus.  This is not the case; 100 minerals gets you a 40% bonus.  This changes the optimal damage setups significantly.

0-300 total minerals: no speed
400-500 total minerals: L1 speed
600-800 total minerals: L2 speed
900-3100 total minerals: L3 speed
3200-5300 total minerals: L5 speed
5400+ total minerals: L6 speed

Put another way...

L1 is optimal when you have 300-400 money sunk into just attack power
L2 is optimal when you have 400-600 money sunk into just attack power
L3 is optimal when you have 500-2700 money sunk into just attack power
L4 is never optimal
L5 is optimal when you have 1600-3700 money sunk into just attack power
L6 is optimal when you have 2400+ money sunk into just attack power

I also think it's quite reasonable to just skip the first couple weapon speed upgrades.  Get 500 money in attack, and then save for Wep 3.  At 500 money with no attack speed upgrade, the ratio is 15:15.6, so it's not that far off from optimal (4% below, but eliminating the buying and selling time honestly probably matters more).

On the high end...there's a nice overlap between the three, where you can build up to 2400 invested in just attack power, and then...swap out gloves, farm some more, swap out gloves, done.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 10, 2012, 12:38:14 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot

Wanted to get a sense of timing; this is just from a replay, where I went mostly pure eco, including mining from gold and salvaging wall; stopped for a couple of turrets and walls at various points, and had my gold miners killed, buying/selling at the market wasn't all that profitable, so it's not the most extreme eco game, but it gives a rough sense of things:

0:20: probes spawn
1:00: Zealot spawns
2:10: Gen 3
3:05: Gen 4
4:20: Gen 5
6:00: Gen 6
8:30: Gen 7
11:00: Gen 8
13:40: Gen 9
15:30: Gen 10
17:15: Ultra Miner
19:50: Ultra Miner x2
24:05: Legendary Miner
27:15: Legendary Miner x2
29:55: Legendary Miner x3
32:05: Perfect Miner
34:00: Perfect Miner x2
35:20: Perfect Miner x3
36:05: Perfect Miner x4
36:40: Perfect Miner x5
(etc, etc.  Not going to list all 15 perfects)
39:20: Final Wall (probably could have rushed it slightly earlier)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 10, 2012, 08:42:42 PM
Pobes vs Zeelot

Rough cost efficiency estimates.

For these, I assume that 10 minerals is worth 150 gas.  Obviously the relative value fluctuates throughout the game.

Turrets:
T1-T6: 16 gas = 1 damage
T7: 19.8 gas = 1 damage
T8: 21.6 gas = 1 damage
T9: 14.4 gas = 1 damage
T10: 16.8 gas = 1 damage
T11: 4.0 gas = 1 damage
T12: 5.8 gas = 1 damage
T13: 6.5 gas = 1 damage

So...interesting thought here: imagine you're only getting one T9.  If you instead spent all that money on T6s...the gas part of the T9 gets you 8 T6s, the cost of the Global Market gets you 2 more T6s, and selling the minerals for the T9 on the market gets you maybe 3-4 more T6s, so you're looking at 14 T6s for the same total resources.  Not immediately intuitive, but neat.  (In practice you'll often just have the minerals for a T9 anyway, though, and not have space for 14 T6s).

Among other things, though, I'd like to note that there need not be such a jump between T12 and T13--just build a crazy number of T12s.

Income:
automines: 1 gas/sec per 480 gas investment.
L1-L4 miners: 1 gas/sec per 273 gas investment.
L1-L4 miners on Gold: 1 gas/sec per 136 gas investment
L6 miner: 1 gas/sec per 152 gas investment
L7 miner: 1 gas/sec per 81 gas investment
L8 miner: 1 gas/sec per 51 gas investment
Generator upgrades....these are kind-of weird, because they have their actual cost, and then the prerequisite cost, but the prerequisite can be sold.
Generator with prerequisite cost: 1 gas/sec per ~160 gas investment
Generator without prerequisite cost: 1 gas/sec per 80 gas investment

Of course, all of this is dependent on the assumption that the gas to mineral conversion is 150:10.  It tends to drop lategame.  Automines and ultra miners tend to be tied if the market is around 85:10.  Automines and legendary miners tend to be tied if the market is around 60:10
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 14, 2012, 05:13:43 PM
Pobes vs Zeelot

So...how to optimally blend HP and armor

Armor is weird, the cost for it goes up exponentially like everything else, but the values are...

9% reduction
18% reduction
27% reduction
36% reduction
45% reduction
54% reduction
63% reduction
72% reduction

Which looks linear at first glance, but it's actually harmonic (1/x) meaning it grows slower than exponential at first, and faster later.

So without further ado...

no armor: 0-800 defencive minerals (highly convenient number)
Lvl 1 armor: never optimal (o_O)
Lvl 2 armor: 900-1800 defencive minerals (again quite convenient; means 1600 HP 200 armor is optimal)
Lvl 3 Armor: 1900-3400 defencive minerals (meh)
Lvl 4 Armor: 3500-6200 defencive minerals (Well, this does mean that 3200 HP and 800 armor is optimal)
Lvl 5 Armor: 6300-11100 defencive minerals (Again, on the plus side spending 6400 HP and 1600 on armor is optimal)
Lvl 6 Armor: 11200-19300 defencive minerals (12800 HP and 3200 armor is optimal)
Lvl 7 Armor: 19400-32500 defencive minerals (stacked 2x 12800 HP and 6400 armor is optimal)

Although, realistically, you're probably not using three equipment slots on durability (and if you are, you might be going regen)

So...here's where it gets a little troubling: gas.  At gas it's:

1 gas: 92% reduction
2 gas: 96% reduction
8 gas: 98% reduction
32 gas: 99% reduction

A mineral-maxed zealot who isn't double-stacking HP dies in 3 hits to a T11.  Which is to say: usually game over.
A zealot with 1 gas on HP, and 12800 min armor dies in 14 hits to a T11.  This prevents feed, but doesn't kill.
A zealot with 1 gas on HP, and 1 gas on defence dies in 48 hits to a T11.  This doesn't prevent feed at all; in fact you will still feed pretty hard.

So...

0 gas defences = LOL dead to T11 (19x T9 to prevent feed, or something like that)
1 gas defences = 1x T11 to prevent feed
2 gas defences = 3x T11 to prevent feed
3 gas defences = 6x T11 to prevent feed
4 gas defences = 12x T11 to prevent feed

The problem is, going from 1 gas to 4 gas doesn't take very long particularly with gas-based damage.  The cost rises linearly in this section, but the durability doubles every time.  Now if you need more durability than this, then you need to go up to 10 gas next, then 16 gas, then 40 gas, and those take an appropriately long-ass time.

But realistically, a zealot who gets 3 gas total (1 weapon, 1 armor, 1 HP) should not lose ever.

Fun fact, while I'm at it: gas 2 regen + gas 2 defence only nulls out an extra four T11s.  (So for 6 gas, 16x T11 to prevent feed).  For all that regen is "good" once you hit gas, still not that good.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 25, 2012, 08:23:19 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot:

So...some more discoveries.

First: I actively changed the metagame recently.  Lost a game as zealot to someone who blinked around the map, and started wishing there was a 4ish gas "give full map vision" item.  Then I realized: wait, treasure boxes give a tiny ring of vision (wide enough to cover base entrances).

So...if a probe pulls one of these stunts where they run and stall, pack your bags with a bunch of level 1 items, and drop them at the entrance to every base.  I usually keep a few serious items:

1. HP (so that if the probe does base up, you don't die)
2. Boots (it's a scouting mission; movement matters.  Also, they are pretty cheap and could be dropped as a treasure box)
3. attack (but not attack speed--nice to be effective if you actually do find something)


Another interesting discovery: pre-gas, if you expect a T11, doubling up on HP will let you survive for just long enough to warp out (so 2x of the 12800 HP, and 1x of the 12800 armor).



And...a few calculations I ran: apparently if you do a really awful durability build (namely: keep all three of regen, defence, and HP at the same level) you...actually do ok.  Like...your durability tends to be 80% of optimal, assuming medium opposition (by medium, I mean turrets that will kill in 40 seconds or so).  Basically, it plays like an HP build, and if you last for 40 seconds, then the health you get from the regen during that time is...about 60% of what you could have gotten with an HP setup, but not that bad.  And the ratio of amount spent on health stats to amount spent on armor stats is...reasonable.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 27, 2012, 04:46:53 PM
Pobes vs Zeelot:

Feeding and travel time.

So...on the large map, the closest base takes 10 seconds to return home for a shopping trip.  A moderately far base (bottom left--still one of the closer ones) takes about 40 seconds round trip.

This has some interesting implications.  The amount of time you should spend feeding depends on how distant the base is.  But it also depends on the point of the game--early in the game you can feed enough to double your damage in about 70 seconds.  Later in the game, it takes 15 seconds to feed enough to double your damage.  This is purely a function of the attack speed upgrades.  (Attack power always costs the same amount per damage, but later in the game it's multiplied by 5, and your damage is your income).

What I found in my calculations was that doubling time played a very large part in how frequently you wanted to return to home base.  In extreme circumstances it can be worth spending more than half your time travelling, just to upgrade more frequently (though only slightly under given how things are balanced).  On the flip side, early in the game, when you feed slower, you want to stay a long time.  Feeding all the way to 400 minerals, for instance, can be optimal when it's early and the only known base is quite distant.  (90 second feed--although less in practice due to starting minerals and passive mineral generation on the way to the base).  Later in the game, when you can double in 15 seconds, you want more like 45 second feeds for distant bases.  By comparison, close bases (10 second round trips) are more along the lines of 45 second upgrade cycles, and then get faster (to like...35 or so) when you start doubling quickly.

Move speed boosters:

Cloak lasts for 10 seconds, and seems to be a +1.88 movement boost, with a 1 minute cooldown.
Void lasts for 5 seconds, and has a 45 second cooldown.  If void cooldown is about to end, that's a pretty good time to leave; worth taking a mental note of the timestamp of when you get voided.
Boots give +1 movement bonus.
So...here's the interesting thing: I think the zealot gets a +0.25 movement boost on the large map, so is normally 3.75 by default, but is 4.00 by default on the large map.

On the subject of boots, they are a 25% bonus to travel time, but early on you should be doing more feeding and less travelling (ideally) at maybe a 2:1 ratio for somewhat distant bases on the large map, so boots become good when the equivalent damage increase for the cost would be about 12%?  (so...around when you have the 800 cost weapons and 400 cost attack speed?)  Although...these aren't directly comparable--the comparison with boots I made there assumed staying to feed longer, but ideally with boots you'd have less travel time so you'd stay for shorter time periods to upgrade more frequently (which probably means boots expenditures should come from your durability fund, not your damage fund).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 01, 2012, 02:54:35 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot:

So...the whole rigid 2 ultra -> 3 legendary -> perfects...except when you're pooling and want 0 ultra -> 3 legendary -> perfects...

Fundamentally this comes from you want to get your gas income above a certain level before you start saving for a certain threshold of expensiveness.

But what if we throw a wrench into this: you instead of pure automines get several T11s (which don't produce gas income).  Now the ideal values are often somewhat higher; instead of two ultra miners, it can be optimal to get three ultra miners.  Instead of three legendaries, it can be optimal to get four legendaries.

This also brings up another interesting question: let's say you don't plan to econ any time soon at all, and just want as many T11s as quickly as possible?  What level miner should you get?  Turns out: spam ultra miners.  Spamming Legendaries eventually catches up, of course, but not until you have 12 T11s or so.

But this value changes if you're pooling and going pure turret; with three people pooling, you might as well get Legendaries.  You won't delay your first T11 much (if at all).  Alternatively, pretend the maximum generator was lower (like 128 or so).  Now it can be worthwhile to go for master miners over Ultras.

Intuitively this makes sense.  If it takes sooooo long to get an ultra miner that two master miners could get you the 10,000 minerals you need for T11, then go for the Masters.  Mathematically it breaks down something like this...

dx/dt = floor(t/timecost)*income

x = sum(1/2*timecost*income * n) for n = 0 ... floor(t/timecost)

x = (n*(n-1)/2)*1/2*timecost*income

So...as n gets very large you end up with a formula that looks like : t^2 * income/timecost

And so here's the thing: income/timecost is always exactly the same--ultra miners always produce 36 minerals, and they always cost about 1/3 of what a legendary miner costs.  HOWEVER, the difference comes in the n*(n-1) term.  As you increase timecost, the n*(n-1) term gets smaller, and the timecost*income gets larger (assuming you have a target x).  But as the n*(n-1) term gets really small, it starts to shrink the other terms due to the (n-1) component.






....in a completely unrelated calculation:

T9 and T11 cost efficiency comparison.

It takes about 100 T9s to deal as much damage as one T11.
100 T9s cost 11200 minerals (and much, much more gas; T9s cost primarily gas).
one T11 costs 10240 minerals (plus the cost of a T10, which is like...8192 gas and 240 minerals--basically nothing)

...Yeah, T11 cost efficiency is kind-of insane.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 02, 2012, 10:15:01 AM
You know...every once in a while I analyze the metagame for Starcraft or Magic the Gathering or Pokemon or Advance Wars.  I don't always have anywhere to put my thoughts (and notably, some of these communities will flame you off the board for theorymoning/theorycrafting/etc...and not without reason--it's easy to overlook stuff when you theorize).  But I just happen to find theory fun, so as long as I'm entertaining myself by theorizing, I may as well store my thoughts somewhere.  And the DL seems like the place that would most appreciate analysis just for the sake of analysis.


So...without further ado, I'm kicking this off with...Pokemon:


There is no ban's in pokemon what are you talking about. (yes I am aware of the existence of smogon universty and that only certain types of terrible people use their rule system...)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 03, 2012, 01:25:26 AM
I'm pretty sure the vast majority of serious analysis of Pokemon assumes the existence of tiers (i.e., banning of ubers as at least a possibility) because for a long time there were so few ubers that they were completely overpowered and overcentralising. This trend long predates the existence of Smogon.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 03, 2012, 02:24:33 AM
I'm pretty sure the vast majority of serious analysis of Pokemon assumes the existence of tiers (i.e., banning of ubers as at least a possibility) because for a long time there were so few ubers that they were completely overpowered and overcentralising. This trend long predates the existence of Smogon.

I was being snarky, the idea of the existence of "tiers" seems pointless when I can one shot a charizard @ lvl 100  or Hydragedon @ lvl 100 with my bellossom. Though If i had to ban stuff it would be flying gem acrobatics users :P

Even the legendary fire types pale to my mighty bellossom!

Banning "moves" would seem more logical in pokemon than baning the pokemon, even arceus kinda sucks despite his stat pool.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on July 03, 2012, 05:48:20 PM
Arceus is absolutely insane, actually. There was a time when people were considering banning him from the Ubers tier, just because of the sheer number of options and the crazy power he can get from Extremespeed.
Also, some moves/abilities are banned not because they're good, but because they make the game more an aspect of luck than skill. (i.e. Moody, OHKO moves)
Aaaand OHKOing stuff with a Bellossom outside of weather seems incredibly unlikely, unless you happen to count "sleep and then attacks" as killing, but then that would be why Breloom is one of the best revenge-killers in the game~
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 04, 2012, 12:20:20 AM
*leaf storm, it only works the one time and of course during clear skies since bellossom is poop slow otherwise.
And generally the legendaries and fire types dont max their special defense evs with positive nature for it.
Luck is an important factor in all battles, i have won and lost so many matches to lucky crits! And those are less than 20% chance, otk moves make more sense(not to mention mostt can learn  mindreader/lockon/ettc).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on July 04, 2012, 01:07:40 AM
Luck is an important aspect, but not something that should be relied upon, which is why OHKO moves are generally frowned upon - they're a bad strategy, worse than the actual top attacks, but because they're reliant on luck, they can beat a team that is technically better. The best strategy in Pokemon, and in a number of games that come to mind, will be one that can mitigate luck, not rely on it.
Think the only perfect accurate -> OHKO, other than Smeargle, is Articuno. Possibly Froslass too? Either way, not many.
And.. I'd be surprised if Leaf Storm OHKOs a Ho-oh, since they do tend to run HP EVs, so I guess you're excluding Ubers? (Hell, I'd be surprised if it OHKOed Lugia, since that thing's a tank and a half.) Not to mention things like Ferrothorn or Multiscale Dragonite...
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 05, 2012, 09:38:36 AM
Luck is an important aspect, but not something that should be relied upon, which is why OHKO moves are generally frowned upon - they're a bad strategy, worse than the actual top attacks, but because they're reliant on luck, they can beat a team that is technically better. The best strategy in Pokemon, and in a number of games that come to mind, will be one that can mitigate luck, not rely on it.
Think the only perfect accurate -> OHKO, other than Smeargle, is Articuno. Possibly Froslass too? Either way, not many.
And.. I'd be surprised if Leaf Storm OHKOs a Ho-oh, since they do tend to run HP EVs, so I guess you're excluding Ubers? (Hell, I'd be surprised if it OHKOed Lugia, since that thing's a tank and a half.) Not to mention things like Ferrothorn or Multiscale Dragonite...

I have OHKO a moltres but I never faught a Ho-Oh (for some reason they seem unpopular in battles being a physical fire attacker, but it does have boss special defense and x4 grass resistence)with my bellossom, the legendaries and dual types I've OHKO'd are: Deyxos (multiple forms but never defense form no one seems to run that), Lugia, Moltres, Articuno, Zapdos, Entei, Suicune(lol to easy that one though), Darkrai(got lucky since it was faster than me that darkvoid failed >.>), Dragonite, Charizard, Arceus(This time though it was on my phsyical attack bellossom and it was a double battle where I boosted its attack with the confusion atkx2 booster), Jirachi(that was surprising), Mewtwo(never fight mews), Hydragedon, Tyranitar. That is about it, the other legendaries I have fought are too fast still and usually running a choice item or choice Gyrados with fireblast >.>

Personally I find One Hit KO moves hit more often than 50-85% chance to hit moves(i've had fireblast and others miss all 7 times in a row....), and then there is the whole thing about Hail Storm and Sheer Cold and sandstorm and fissure(or fissure in certain games on certain map terrains), as well as the fact those moves can hit through protect under certain circumstances which make them really strong, They seem like they are lucky moves but i've seen computer trainers sweep my team with sheer cold before.

And a few more pokemon in Gen I/II could learn fissure from the TM as I recall, though the mechanics in Gen I were pretty different than onward :C
I MISS PRESS B at the right moment to make sandlash's slash always crit!

If its GEN I I will talk pokemon theory crafting all day, but GEN II onward and especially GEN V where everything seems finally balanced regardless of legendary usage in fights (baring of course the one trio that gets stab on acrobatics in addiction to being ludicrously fast >.> since I mostly use grass types I find acrobatics to be the supreme of over powered moves especially in triple battles since it counters all strategies and will one shot most pokemon on first use).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on July 05, 2012, 01:32:42 PM
The OHKO moves are inaccurate, even if it doesn't work out in practice. AI is rarely a good test, and as for things like Fire Blast/Blizzard/Thunder, I've had Thunder hit consecutively 5 times in sunny weather. Doesn't make that a reliable figure, unfortunately.

Just decided to run some calcs on Leaf Storm from a Bellossom. Positive nature, max EVs, figured Choice Specs was the best way to go for turn 1 damage. Running these on a Gen4 calc because it changes nothing else and I'm too lazy to find a Gen5 one.

Bellossom (Modest, 252 SpA) Leaf Storm vs. Ho-oh (Adamant, 4 SpD) - 14.2% - 16.7%
Bellossom (Modest, 252 SpA) Leaf Storm vs. Wobbuffet (Calm, 252 SpD) - 55.3% - 65.3%
Bellossom (Modest, 252 SpA) Leaf Storm vs. Dragonite (Mild, 0 SpD) - 22.6% - 26.6%
Bellossom (Modest, 252 SpA) Leaf Storm vs. Jirachi (Jolly, 4 SpD) - 42.5% - 50.1%
Bellossom (Modest, 252 SpA) Leaf Storm vs. Arbok (Impish, 0 SpD) - 54.9% - 64.8%

...I'm really not seeing it. :(
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 08, 2012, 07:47:02 PM
I have OHKO a moltres but I never faught a Ho-Oh (for some reason they seem unpopular in battles being a physical fire attacker, but it does have boss special defense and x4 grass resistence)with my bellossom, the legendaries and dual types I've OHKO'd are: Deyxos (multiple forms but never defense form no one seems to run that), Lugia, Moltres, Articuno, Zapdos, Entei, Suicune(lol to easy that one though), Darkrai(got lucky since it was faster than me that darkvoid failed >.>), Dragonite, Charizard, Arceus(This time though it was on my phsyical attack bellossom and it was a double battle where I boosted its attack with the confusion atkx2 booster), Jirachi(that was surprising), Mewtwo(never fight mews), Hydragedon, Tyranitar. That is about it, the other legendaries I have fought are too fast still and usually running a choice item or choice Gyrados with fireblast >.>

Most of those legendaries you listed are not considered "ubers" and are not banned from normal play.  In fact, most legendaries don't have especially great stats.  The ones that are banned to ubers....

Deoxys A (glass cannon)
Deoxys S (Mediocre durability--badly distributed stats for it)
Lugia (Unholy tank; and takes half-damage from grass, and most EV builds pour even more into defences.  Err...yeah, this is strange--you sure it was level 100 with EVs?)
Darkrai (Mediocre durability--kind of like Deoxys S but not as bad)
Arceus (Fantastic tank, but as you mentioned there were special circumstances here)
Mewtwo (Much more known for ridiculous speed and offence than durability, but his durability isn't bad)

But yeah, some of the ones you mentioned are actualy allowed in low-tier play (I believe Moltres is for instance).  Certainly being legendary doesn't mean you're an unstoppable killing machine.  Some legendaries have bad stats, bad moves, or bad typings.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 09, 2012, 12:22:19 AM
^ This

Oh and critical hits lol probably should have mentioned that

I average 40-50% critical hit rate in this game regardless of a moves crit chance for some reason, But that is discounting even the 99% moves (90% boosted 10%) missing multiple times in a row. (aka only counting moves capable of a critical hit, sucessfully landing).

This is a trend in every RNG based game I have ever played though.

And No, only stab boosting items or defensive items get used.

I have never i think delt damage to a lugia of decent amount lol>.>

But I was just talking about legendaries and other beefying mon's with x4 resistance STILL getting OHKO'd.

UNKNOWN if these enemy pokemon were EV trained as it was wifi or battle frontiers/stadium (most of my bellssom OTKs took place in stadium games from Gen II-GV (i don't play her special atk in GenV )vs friends pokes so unknown how well their EVs/IVs looked I would assume focused on stats, My bellossoms IV was always in the 25-31 range with maxed speed and sp atk EVs for data purposes with sp atk postive nature in Gen IV and remake games. I won't discuss that those were usually the only kills I got against their pokemon but yeah >.> But the rage was pleasurable from them.

Like I said theorycrafting is pretty cool but vs actual RNG(or luck if you will) it falls short terribly when my 30% chance move connects more often more regularly than my 50-90% chance moves >.>

I think its banned because people get annoyed by lucky fellows that sweep OHKO with the OHKO moves their entire team without even a chance to defend themselves.
The chance to fail of 70% should be enough for them to be competitive for "lucky" folks. I think its just /rage.

And then...there is double and triple battles too >.>

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 09, 2012, 04:25:58 PM
We interrupt this discussion of games that people actually care about for...

Pobes vs Zeelot!

Quick durability calculations to demonstrate the different builds.  If the zealot has 12800 minerals, and the probe has two level 9 turretss...

12800 regen: OHKO'd.  (Survives 1 second...2 seconds if lucky and you regen between the two turret hits)
12800 8 Armor: 3 HKO'd
12800 8 HP: 41 HKO'd
6400 regen, 6400 Armor: 6  HKO'd (takes 296 damage, heals 256, net loss of 40)
6400 regen, 6400 HP: 30 HKO'd (takes 800, regens 256, net loss of 544)
6400 Armor, 6400 HP: 56 HKO'd

None of these setups is perfectly optimal, granted.

Not to mock regen too, too badly, though.  Technically, the longest surviving setup against 2 9s when you have 12800 minerals is...

6400 Regen, 3200 Regen, 3200 Armor: Survives indefinitely (takes 368 DPS, regens 384 HP per sec).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 14, 2012, 10:25:26 AM
archiving this conversation

Quote
You: Turret the hell out at +8
Mitzu: Yea sure
what's the difference
o.o
You: Then salvage when the zealot leaves, and turret the hell out at +16
Mitzu: Ohhh
you meant at +8 income
You: yes
Mitzu: thought you meant level 8 turret
You: no.
Level 8 turrets suck
Mitzu: was like..
how is that going to help..
You: Mass level 4s into mass level 6s.
Mitzu: yea
just don't worry that much
about eco right?
You: Yeah, stopping the zealot's eco is higher priority than ecoing yourself
Mitzu: Mm hmmm
You: You do kind of eco just by existing; sitting on +16 gen is a decent amount of income.
Mitzu: mm hmm
should be better than zealot's
You: If you were really rushing you'd sell your generator.
(There are some builds that sell their generator; they're pretty hillarious).
Mitzu: Haha, I don't think I've seen any
at least not recently that I can remember
You: I wouldn't bother with them outside of 1v1.
Mitzu: Haha yea I thought not
You: Well...arguably it's worth it to sell your generator for your first legendary (as long as you immediately rebuild and reupgrade it).
Mitzu: mmm
You: But it only gets you about 10 seconds ahead anyhow.
Mitzu: that's true
actually
You: So...I usually don't bother.
Mitzu: ehh
You: (Honestly, there's a lot of stuff with econ as probe where I'm ok with losing 5-10 seconds.  Like...leaving my depot built on +32 gen; that's 8 wasted seconds, but I don't really care that much).
Mitzu: ahh yea
I dont normally salvage either
just because I might built more
later
Not worth taking probe out again
You: Yeah
Mitzu: For 256 to 512
I normally don't build workers though, I just end up buying minerals
in bulk half the time
You: But if I were more daring I would just head out with my probe every time.
Mitzu: As long as prices aren't sky-high
You: Ehh...256 to 512 is the one area where I almost always get extra miners.  Prices usually spike sometime around that time, and even if they don't, if you buy 200, you just raised the price by 100 all by yourself.
Mitzu: YOu do what, sell wall and buy 2 professionals?
You: 1 pro on gold will usually do it
Mitzu: Mmm, i feel like
4k for pro,
isn't really that much more then buying one set
You: 2 pros on gold generally means you plan on doing a lot of selling (1 pro implies buying if you just have 2 average + 1 advance)
Mitzu: in bulk
Does the pro, mine over 200 buying it at 256 to 512?
You: Hmm...it's about a 120 second upgrade time, so...
mines 240 I guess?
Mitzu: Ehhhhh
and buying 200 will purchase at the cost 50 higher then the current on average right?
You: More to the point, though, if it stays alive after 512, then you have some extra minerals; can sell them on the market as other people hit 512.
Mitzu: I feel like
after people hit 512s and even 256s
minerals just become dirt cheap
You: 100 higher, but 50 higher on average.
Mitzu: especially when everyone proxies the gold
You: 'Well yes, depends on the market
Mitzu: Yea, so as long as the price is 150 or less
You: Gradient certainly likes buying to 512.
Mitzu: isn't it just faster to buy in bulk?
Especially since
mineral income is pretty negligible after 512
since you rush ultra anyway
You: Mineral income is nonnegligible if you can sell at a decent price
Mitzu: After 512
why would people need to buy minerals?
You: And often enough it'll spike to 200 or so as other people reach 512.
Mitzu: That could be true
I guess it really just depends on the other plays
players*
You: (A lot of my builds are tuned for being ahead of other probes on econ >_>)
Mitzu: LOL
that could be why, I'm never as ahead of you
;)
You: Yeah, if I get to 512 first, the mineral price will drop.
Mitzu: Maybe that's why i buy in bulk
after you
haha
You: But anyway, as far as getting a miner between 256 and 512...usually even with one Pro I still have to do SOME buying on the market.
I just don't buy everything on the market
Mitzu: Yeaa, and you don't buy in bulk right?
You: Yeah, I'll buy like...50-80.
Mitzu: Buying in bulk isn't actually cheaper than buying in 10's is it?
o.o
You: Which doesn't spike the price too much.
I....don't think so?
Mitzu: I used to think it was at a discount, but then I realized it isn't
lol
XD
You: I've never actually checked.
Mitzu: if the way it calculates is based off individual sales, then it's equivalent
i Used to think it was 200 minerals at the starting price you buy
but that's definitely not true >.>
You: yeah, I remember looking at it, and thinking "that looks equivalent, or very close."
Mitzu: Haha yea
For +32 to +64
how many minerals do you normally end up selling?
you go 2 average 1 advanced
But I always seem to fall behind you in that step
You: I go 2 average for 32 to 64 usually, and sell about 40.
Mitzu: no advanced?
until 64?
You: I get the advanced by selling the wall at 64.
But...it all depends on the market
Mitzu: Ohh
That's what I've been doing wrong
I end up selling like 60-80 instead
and then i'm behind you
You: I've done things like getting all my miners on +32 when the market was doing crazy things (like hanging out at 350)
Mitzu: Yea
If it's at 250
you still wait for 64?
You: Buying all my miners on +32 is actually how I got my 14:38 solo max gen.
yes
250 isn't that much
Mitzu: Mm hmmm
You: If anyone else is selling, that can tank fast
Mitzu: Also, in games where the zealot is good, do you still bother trying to take gold with miners?
You: yeah
Mitzu: It seems like if the zealot is assuredly good, he'll just scan and kill
and then you get set behind a lot
You: If the zealot is really good, the zealot will usually ignore gold miners
They don't feed.
Mitzu: Doesn't it hurt players more than zealot?
That's basically stopping at least 50-60 percent of the mineral income
You: Ehh...as long as they last about 70 seconds before getting killed, it's probably still better than mining blue
You catapult ahead on gas income by upping your gen faster.
Mitzu: if they die
Do you just end up buying rest
or do you rebuild at blue?
Or does this all just depend on the price
You: Buy the rest to get to the next gen up, and then rebuild on gold.
Mitzu: Ahh I see
You: Depends how close you are to gen up, really
Also, you can do stuff like send one miner to each gold base; if the zealot wants to run around that much, sure, don't get feed, that's fine.
Mitzu: Yea, kind of what I did last game I guess
but I only split it off into 2 golds
Of course after you chased, I never retook the gold either
You: I only killed the one gold set because there were like...10 miners on there, and it was on my way home anyway.
Mitzu: haha
You: If you'd sent to the top gold, I wouldn't have bothered detouring that much.
Mitzu: yeaa
so far from my base though
T+T
You: Just drop a depot in there; you knew which base I was going to be returning to repeatedly; you can guess my path
(Good zealots are predictable; it's bad zealots who might kill you in transit)
Mitzu: I honestly thought
you were going to camp top right
so I figured safest base would be left gold
It's only when that other guy
went to left gold too
that I put one in the other one
You: Yeah, I knew there were miners on the left gold, but I never went in there; too much of a detour.
Mitzu: ahh
Then when zealots scan the golds
You: I was mostly scanning the golds to see if anyone would be dumb and actually move in.
Mitzu: do you run?
You: Sometimes
half the time running turns out to be wrong, and my scvs die on the way out
may as well get in the extra mining time
Mitzu: yea
You: Ideally split up the miners and send them different directions.
Mitzu: mm hmm
You: and hope he wastes time by chasing XD
Mitzu: I've tried doing that, but with only 3-4 miners
and zealot's speed and damage, they normally don't get very far
but I guess any time wasted is still good
You: Yeah, my splits are bad.
Mitzu: Ohhhh second point! What is your build for zealot?
You: I sometimes get like...1-2 out alive.
Mitzu: Damage, attack speed, health?
You: Most important thing with zealot is damage.
Mitzu: yea
You: overall DPS I mean.
Mitzu: Err
You: So...you'll notice that level 1 attack up is +2, and level 1 attack speed is +20%.
Mitzu: don't get level 2 attack
before you at least get attack speed
?
You: Thing is, +2 is actually a 40% bonus over 5 damage.
Mitzu: ohh yea
jk
XD
You: Yeah, it's an imbalanced square.
Mitzu: So damage over speed, until you get the 80%
thing right?
or after a certain point in damage, speed becomes worth it
>.>
You: You generally want to spend about 250 more on attack power than attack speed.
Mitzu: What about for armor life and regen
Life first?
I see a lot of people go regen
You: Basically, if you had 10 base power, then +2 would be a 20% bonus.
Regen sucks.
Mitzu: Really?
You: I generally never buy regen.
Mitzu: just pure life and armor?
You: Yeah.
And mostly life
With a cheap armor, because it's a percentage bonus
Mitzu: mm hmm
You: But like...better to double up on life than to get 9% more damage reduction.
Mitzu: Yea true
You: (The typical ratio I go for is to spend about 4x as much on life as on armor).
Mitzu: I see
You: (That breaks down a little towards the expensive armors, because it's harmonic).
(The gap between 63% reduction and 72% reduction is much larger than the gap between 9% and 18%).
Mitzu: So many things to think about =.= just being a probe is hard enough haha
You: But yeah: other stuff: never buy level 4 attack speed (but that's kind-of obvious).
Mitzu: err which one is the level 4 attack speed
100 percent?
You: yep
Mitzu: ahh yea
i normally just go from 80 to 200
You: 800 minerals for +100...when you can spend 400 minerals for +80
Yeah, 80 to 200 is right.
It's actually correct to stick on 80 for a really long time (like up around 50 damage).
Mitzu: mmm
You: But...yeah, past that, in the lategame I focus builds around dealing with T11s, because T11s are that good.
Mitzu: Mm hmm
so what, armor and life? XD
You: If you don't have gas, stacking two 128 HPs, and one 128 armor will let you survive an 11-void with a teleport
Mitzu: Really?
You: Barely; you survive 6 hits.
Err...the 6th hit kills you
But void only lasts 5 seconds.
Mitzu: mmm
That's not bad at all then
normally you'd have gas by 11 though right?
You: Well...yes, normally I have gas around the time people are still on +64 gen >_>
Mitzu: XD
what is that, 7 and 8 turrets?
You: You can support a level 9 turret on +64
Mitzu: mm
You: I mean, not without delaying yourself, but that's about what the Mega Wall 1 costs, which is what you need for the upgrade.
Mitzu: mm hmm
You: And yeah, other post-gas stuff: 1 gas HP, and 128 armor makes you pretty safe against 11s--they kill in 15 seconds (denies feed, but you'll live).
Mitzu: and not everyone should have 11's
You: 1 gas HP, 1 gas armor lets you live 45 seconds against 11s (feed as much as you want).
Mitzu: mmm
You: I usually stop getting durability around 1 gas HP 1 gas armor, unless I just have spare gas (in which case I'll get 2 gas armor, then 2 gas HP).
Or the probes are making multiple 11s, of course.
Mitzu: i thought you said life over armor
You: Gas armor is different
Mitzu: doesn't it just go
from 92 to 96?
You: 92% to 96% = double
Mitzu: ehh
does life double too?
You: Yes.
Mitzu: so then it doesn't matter
You: So...it's pretty much equivalent.
Mitzu: which one you get?
ahh kk
You: (Armor is still slightly better due to your innate 500 HP and innate passive regen >_>)
Mitzu: heh
XD
You: And 8 gas armor is just flat out better than 8 gas HP.
Mitzu: For sure
You: (armor doubles again, HP goes from 320000 to 490000)
Mitzu: yea
You: Oh, and Regen 11 is actually good; arguably better than 490000 HP.
Mitzu: it's the 20 k hp per sec right?
You: Yeah
Quadruple the previous one.
Mitzu: coupled with armor, I'D ASSUME SO
oops
caps
XD
You: Well....so here's the thing
IMO all the regens (Except regen 11) should be doubled in how much they regen
Here's why
for the most part, 100 minerals buys you 250 HP, or 4 regen.
In order to get more than 250 life regened in a single visit, you have to keep knocking on the probe's door for 62.5 seconds.
It's basically never worth it to stay that long without returning home to upgrade.
Mitzu: yea
You: Double the bonus from regen, however, and now you're looking at 30 seconds; that's quite attractive
BUT: regen is still vulnerable.  If you go all regen, and someone gets a T9, one void and you die.
Mitzu: mm hmm
life is just safer
You: Yeah; if regen bonus was doubled, I'd....still go life a lot of the time, but go regen when I feel I should take a risk.
Mitzu: so you never buy rege
until max?
You: Pretty much
Regen 11 is good; it also stacks
Mitzu: Mk, sounds good to me!
You: If you have to deal with multiple max turrets, for instance, you can have one damage sponge wearing 4x regen 11.
They can absorb 3-4 T13s.
Then load a kitty up with like...four max blades to kill the final wall.
Mitzu: wait
4 x regen 11
with what
armor and life?
You: Yeah
Mitzu: won't they just kill
your cats?
o.o
or damage is too high
You: You have to hope they don't focus fire
Mitzu: for them to focus in time?
ehh
without kitties you lose
as soon as they hit final
You: Well yes
Mitzu: right?
You: Well...ok, no not exactly
Double max weps can break it.
If there aren't too many repairs.
Mitzu: but then if they build turrets
in time
you die right?
You: Well...one max turret isn't too bad; regen 11 and 99% pretty much nullify it.
Two max turrets means you can only stay for 20 seconds, though.
Mitzu: ouch
so by 4
it's auto kill
with void?
or wait..
8 is auto kill
o.o
You: 4 kills in...7 seconds?  Something like that.
But yeah, you need a kitty if you want to break 4 max turrets and a final wall.
Mitzu: Mm hmm
You: One max turret and one final wall is breakable solo, at least if they only have one probe repairing.
But...more to the point, it's very very rare that you ever get to this point; either probes or zealot tend to pull ahead and kill/completely feed deny long before final wall.
Mitzu: haha yea
like that game where we had like 15 final walls and like 8 turrets
XD
You: Haha, not actually the best way to do the endgame though.
Just cover the map with final turrets and zealot detectors.
Mitzu: yea i figured
You: What's he going to do, attack one of the final turrets?
Ok, he dies.
Oh, yeah, the other thing you can do against final wall if you catch them just as they get it, but before they get a final turret, is 3x max blades.
Mitzu: =0 lol, just pure damage
XD
You: You still have HP and armor >_>
Mitzu: well yea >.>
You: (Although, if you want to play really risky, you can sell the armor too, and go for 4x max blades)
Mitzu: lol
You: (You'll be fine as long as they don't have a 13....)
(But you'd have to run from like...a 12 x_x)
Mitzu: haha
You: (Well...you could stay for like...20 seconds against a 12, which might be enough time to knock down the wall)
(Wait...20...no that isn't right is it?  Hmm...ok, no more like 8 seconds).
Mitzu: lolol
XD
not to mention, that'sonly 1?
Most people would have like 2 -3
if they already have final
at the minimum
You: Some people will sell all turrets when they realize they're not even hurting you.
(Which is actually not a bad strategy)
(Might as well try to econ faster)
Mitzu: mmm
Anyways, I'm pretty tired, gonna call it a night. Thanks for all the info and tips :P Let's play again sometime
You: ya later
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 16, 2012, 06:02:58 AM
Super Smash Bros Melee

So...interesting things have been happening to the metagame, particularly a lot of characters are surfacing that weren't surfacing five years ago.

Peach: arguably the top player in the world right now is a Peach player from Sweden.  Now, Peach is a character who was considered good on-paper for a very long time, but most of the people who played her were players who weren't good at doing all the physics exploits in melee (wavelanding, wavedashing, L-cancelling).

Jigglypuff: also a character that people knew was pretty good, has recently moved into being dominant, been moved to the top of the tier list.  Major tournaments have ended in Jiggly vs Jiggly grand finals (which incidentally, is an incredibly boring paring).

Pikachu: now here's where it gets interesting.  Pikachu wasn't really on anyone's radar in, say, 2005, but now one of the top oh...10 or so people in the world is a pikachu main.  Very strange to watch, too--Pikachu basically can't deal damage (even his downsmash is like...11%) so most of the kills revolve around gimping at low percents.

Mewtwo: There is in fact a Mewtwo player who is...not completely irrelevant.  Placed like...third at an international tournament.  Not dominant on the level of the above, but not irrelevant either.


Now, there are a couple of theories for why this shift might happen.  One would  be that there is less competition--for instance, back in 2005, the best SSBM player in northern California (that went to regional tournaments) was a Link player.  Draw from a smaller pool, and the results become less consistent.  I don't really buy that, though--several of the players that were good in 2005 are still good and still playing tournaments...and losing to these 17 year olds playing non-standard characters (I believe Armada is still in high school).

Part of it seems to come with a shift in the metagame--people playing more defensive, just focusing on not making mistakes.  Part of it comes with the game being around so long that people can learn multiple characters.  Every one of these players can play at least one of Fox/Falco/Marth fairly well in addition to their main character, so if they run into a particularly unfavourable matchup, they just switch.

The particularly interesting thing is how, at least it appears that Brawl strategies have influenced the Melee metagame.  Brawl is a game that has become a lot of "stay away from the enemy forever, occasionally throw a projectile or an attack in their direction in case they're stupid enough to try to get close".  Certain melee matchups end up kind of like that (Jigglypuff vs Young Link, for instance), and while people played them aggressive at first, as these matchups become more and more important, and people figured out what really matters, it's more common for melee matches to look kinda Brawl-esque (no combos, no attacking, lots of camping).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Niji on July 16, 2012, 10:39:33 PM
Gosh that sounds awefully boring to watch if i went to tournaments, even more so to play.... But I am very happy to hear about peach, I always knew her potential(she is the only melee character I have ever won a fight against fox/falco/marth that can do all the exploits, and the dude was one of those idiot savants so 1 win out of a 1000 games as my sole victory is EXTREMELY REWARDING lol, I have never played Melee since then, that is how satisfying it was(so about 1.8 years)). SO THIS PLEASES THE NIJI.

Pikachu is REALLY surprising to hear about, I guess cheap tactics like with kirby's throw off a cliff but press up the same moment your opponent dies because of priority delay?
Mewtwo, I can see it, that sounds like it would actually be really exciting to watch him battle in a tournament.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 02, 2012, 09:28:06 AM
Pobes vs Zeelot:

So...a friend and I have started handicapping ourselves as Zealot.

To review, pobes vs zeelot is a game where you econ race the other team.  The probes spawn at 0:20 into the match, and the zealot spawns 1:00 into the match.  The challenge that we have been imposing on ourselves is that...the zealot sits at spawn for 5 minutes, gaining no income until the 6:00 mark.  The other player then suicides, chooses to help zealot, and spawns as a Hunter (spawning at 6:00) and the two move out together.  The question is, how much of a handicap is this really?

So...some quick calculations--you passively gain 1 mineral a second (starting from 0:20) giving you 340 minerals by the time the hunter spawns.  Obviously put everything into damage (usually divided between the hunter and the zealot) so...at the 6 minute mark this gives you 6 damage from passive mineral income, added to the 5 base for the zealot and the 4 base for the predator.  (15 damage, but slowest possible attack speed means 10 DPS).

An average zealot will generally have 2x that by the 6:00 mark (and a good zealot with a close feed might have 3x).  Which is to say: you're not initially as behind as you might think.  However, you tend to fall further behind for a few reasons.

Primarily among them is that we're splitting resources between two units.  This has several implications.

1. You flat out deal less damage than a single unit.  1600 attack power + 1600 attack speed gives you 74 DPS.  3200 attack power +3200 attack speed gives you 230 DPS.  That's more than triple for equal cost.

2. You don't share durability.  We've been in several situations where the pred stacks up damage, and hopes that the Zealot draws the turret aggro, but then the probe re-targets the turrets at the pred, forcing the pred to run (while the zealot continues to feed at lower damage).  Imagine if you crammed all the damage and all the durability into one unit instead, so you could both tank and deal damage...

So...basically, splitting resources between two players actually takes the somewhat behind state (15 damage at lowest speed) and puts it more behind.



Despite all this, 4/4 wins so far (with some very close calls).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Scar on August 04, 2012, 02:35:09 PM
I used to love going to Smash tournaments. Never won any, but I usually placed in the top 4 by the end...if that counts for anything! >_> (It doesn't, I know.)

My obscure character to use in tournaments was Luigi. His air game is a lot of fun, and I have a lot of control of his movements in the air. I love trying to predict an opponents movements when they are sailing and try to juggle them for mass-hysteria.

When I am serious I tend to use Sheik as my main, and while I was active in the Smashing scene, she was quite a site to behold. It was like my Luigi, except a lot faster. pin-pointing where someone is heading in the air takes a lot more precision since she is a freaking blur.

Another thing, I was never a wave dashing person. I figured that I wanted to test my skills against players that did wave dash, and I was not too far behind them. Sure, there are advantages to knowing how to do stuff like that, but I'd have to re-learn so much and I never wanted to get that focused. I was having fun with what I was doing, so I left it at that. Plus it was always fun to beat wave dashers.

Man I miss playing smash with people. =(
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 06, 2012, 04:49:54 PM
My obscure character to use in tournaments was Luigi. His air game is a lot of fun, and I have a lot of control of his movements in the air. I love trying to predict an opponents movements when they are sailing and try to juggle them for mass-hysteria.

Luigi's got a lot of strengths.  Grand finals of DLC2 (after the various Marths and whatnot had been knocked out or switched characters) was my Luigi vs Elfboy's Samus.

In fact, while we're on the subject of Luigi, here's a video of one of the best players in the world using Luigi:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGq-e_6FxVw

...which...also highlights why he's not higher tier: his recovery is garbage.  If he had normal recovery, my gut feeling is that he'd be a relative constant in tournaments (not top tier, but like...Captain Falcon level of "lots of people play him, he's good.")

Another thing, I was never a wave dashing person. I figured that I wanted to test my skills against players that did wave dash, and I was not too far behind them. Sure, there are advantages to knowing how to do stuff like that, but I'd have to re-learn so much and I never wanted to get that focused. I was having fun with what I was doing, so I left it at that. Plus it was always fun to beat wave dashers.

Wave dashing is actually somewhat balanced.  It's another tool in the toolbox, so going without it is like saying "hey, could you beat that person without using forward-B or down-B"--chances are you can if you're better than the other player.  But there are plenty of situations when wavedashing isn't even the right answer, and plenty of other situations where running or rolling are 90% as effective anyway.

L-Cancelling, on the other hand, is just flat out better and gives people a blatant advantage.  Of all the mechanics that SSBM has, I always found it curious that people who complained about SSBM tournament players would yell "those goddamn wavedashers" instead of "those goddamn L-Cancellers".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: TranceHime on August 07, 2012, 11:10:25 AM
I feel the need to talk about Pokemon so I'm very happy that this came up because I theorycraft to shit about Gen5 meta

Most of those legendaries you listed are not considered "ubers" and are not banned from normal play.  In fact, most legendaries don't have especially great stats.  The ones that are banned to ubers....

Deoxys A (glass cannon)

Tears through most holes in the Ubers metagame, especially given the presence of Life Orb. However, it is correct that Deoxys-A is pretty much the epitome of Glass Cannon - shitty defensive typing in Ubers (lels pure Psychic?) and abysmal defensive stats (50/20/20 don't be foolin' no one) mean all strong users of Choice Scarf sets, Mach Punch and Vacuum Wave pose as good checks to the speedy menace. However, keep note that +1 90 base speed Pokemon can not outspeed maximum speed Deoxys-A. Packing Scizor or Metagross on a Deoxys-A that doesn't have HP Fire is also a good idea, and Lugia can also tank Deoxys-A and OHKO it back.

Quote
Deoxys S (Mediocre durability--badly distributed stats for it)

Deoxys-S's worst enemy is the fact that Team Preview exists - allowing people to easily counter or check Deoxys-S before the game even begins, since you would be downright stupid not to play Deoxys-S as a lead in ubers metagame; as a suicide lead or not. Mostly, people run Deoxys-S on the support since it's capable of using dual screens, Stealth Rock, Spikes, Taunt, Magic Coat, and a whole slew of other useful moves for support. However, it's got some mediocre offense, ironically its best options on the offense being ExtremeSpeed for other Deoxys (of A or S variety) and Fire Punch (for the ever annoying Forretress lead). Other than that it's not very overwhelming. I guess.

Quote
Lugia (Unholy tank; and takes half-damage from grass, and most EV builds pour even more into defences.  Err...yeah, this is strange--you sure it was level 100 with EVs?)

Crits are bullshit lelelelele

Did you know Lugia has Multiscale?! lelelelel (Though sadly Multiscale+Roost is illegal, so you need to rely on Recover instead)

Don't really need to say too much about Lugia that hasn't already been mentioned - it has ridiculous bulk; only a few things even scare it (Dark-types come to mind, as does Kyogre Water Spout, Zekrom Bolt Strike, and Kyurem Ice Burn all have the potential to ruin Lugia's day). It can phaze with Whirlwind/Dragon Tail, and has Toxic alongside its bread and butter move: Roost. For defensive purposes, Lugia can also pack a Sub or Reflect, which just further improves its massive bulk.

Quote
Darkrai (Mediocre durability--kind of like Deoxys S but not as bad)

Darkrai's major advantage is that it's Dark type in a tier where lots of things take super-effective or neutral damage to the Dark type. 90/135/125 offenses is really solid, especially considering that it has its signature Dark Void, which is the second most accurate Sleep-inducing move before Spore.

Dark Void
Dark Pulse
Focus Blast/Nasty Plot
Nasty Plot/Substitute

This is the set that Gen 4 players should recognize if they knew about Darkrai's potential as an incredibly powerful sweeper. It has access to a great way to set up and destroy the opposition, and its access to Focus Blast/Dark Pulse allows it to deal heavy damage to almost everything in the tier. Only two Pokemon resist the combination of attacks: Heracross and Toxicroak, with the former pretty much being one of the only reliable checks to Darkrai. Heracross takes the Dark Void happily and Sleep Talks, either 2HKOing or OHKOing back with its STAB moves thanks to Guts. Other than that, Darkrai's got great offenses.

Quote
Arceus (Fantastic tank, but as you mentioned there were special circumstances here)

Arceus having Multitype gives it a bazillion options, pretty much, and what Plate the player chooses usually dictates what set Arceus is going to run, and the sheer unpredictable factor of which Arceus is going to come out until it does come out makes Arceus very scary. Of course being able to OHKO an Arceus takes some considerable luck if you're running Pokemon who aren't: A) offensive behemoths or B) abusing the weakness of the type Arceus currently is, but eh.

Quote
Mewtwo (Much more known for ridiculous speed and offence than durability, but his durability isn't bad)

Mewtwo's 106/90/90 defenses are decidedly reasonable for Ubers.
Mewtwo gained a very powerful and new toy this generation - Psystrike. It's a 100 BP Psychic move that hits the Defense stat, but runs off of Mewtwo's Special. And only Mewtwo gets it (everyone else gets Psyshock, the 80 BP variant). In fact, this one single addition is what makes Mewtwo incredibly terrifying this time around. Combined with ridiculous speed, Mewtwo now effortlessly puts dents into Chansey and Blissey (especially with Calm Mind, a +1 Mewtwo pretty much OHKOs most things in general at this point) and has ridiculous coverage, Ice Beam/Fire Blast/Aura Sphere and more. Furthermore, it gets Unnerve as its Dream World ability, which allows an offensive Mewtwo to completely trivialize Chople Berry T-Tar, Yache Berry Garchomp and Wacan Berry Manaphy. Did someone mention Custap Berry Wobbuffet? Well now that ain't working anymore either.

Fun fact: A Choice Scarf Shadow Tag Chandelure can and will ruin Mewtwo's day with an Overheat under the Sun. Steel type Pokemon will give Mewtwo a hard time as well if Mewtwo doesn't have Fire Blast. If it does, welp. Psychic Arceus can do something about Mewtwo too, unless it has Shadow Ball. Then welp.

I've got some experience with Random WiFi battles on Pokemon BW, if anyone wants to hook up for some WiFi battles then just shoot me a message on the boards here or on IRC (I'm Mikan or some other stupidly girly nick)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 15, 2012, 09:07:14 AM
Might as well copy-paste a Plants vs Zombies post I made:

Quote
would be better if there we more viable strats for endless other than cob cannons and winterpults everywhere


There are plenty of cobless builds for endless.

I wouldn't make a build with no winterpults, but I'm pretty sure it's been done successfully too.


In fact...let me provide examples:

Cobless:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTOKFFAEP6A

This is actually a reasonably normal strategy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdVIqqqeflQ

A build with no winterpults. I'd consider this fairly abnormal.

And...I guess both of the ones I've linked have had either quite a few winterpults or quite a few cobs, so let me link one that's light on both:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWyxchwyw7s

And yeah, it still has a couple of winterpults, but...only AoE status and all that: you generally want at least two. (And I'd consider this an extremely standard build, for the record; I play almost exactly this, swapping out a couple sunflowers for a couple cobs--sunflowers and cobs basically do the same thing anyway--flowers let you blow stuff up with cherries etc on a regular basis, cobs let you blow stuff up with corn).


That said, if there's one strategy I wish was more viable in endless, it'd be firepea:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlkoM2aT5pI

It's not bad, because fire gives peas AoE, and then they deal a ton of AoE DPS (more than a winterpult or fume, certainly. Similar to a Gloom--less AoE more range). And while they unfreeze, they only unfreeze singletarget--their AoE damage does not unfreeze. The problem is that they have an arbitrary weakness that if they're hitting a shield (screen door, ladder, zomboni) then...they don't get double fire damage to the shield (meh, whatevs) AND don't get their AoE effect (o_O). Still usable, and will roast their row 70% of the time, they just sometimes need babysitting.

So umm...sure, I can agree that they shouldn't lose their AoE effect against shields so that they would be more viable in survival endless.


I feel like I'm missing some viable plants...oh yeah! Spikerocks and Cattails:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Tya-ZOs70

Rocks are obvious--arguably better than Glooms in that location because you don't need to replace pumpkins. Cattails, despite being entirely singletarget, tend to do a decent job at countering balloons. Can't really build a strategy or clear a lane with these, but they're an option.

And...while I'm on the subject of interesting support plants...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9IZii1-RjQ&feature=relmfu

He wants to get ladders set up on his back pumpkins, so...he lets his front plants get eaten, then uses...Garlic! and Tall Nuts! Granted, that's a pure short term fix, but I've also seen Tall Nuts used long-term in the pool to stop dolphin zombies.

Not to mention the obvious support stuff (Umbrella Leaf, Cherry Bomb, Squash, puff shroom, blowver, Freezie, Doom Shroom, pumpkin, sunflower etc).


But umm...sure, in general you need AoE DPS (which you can only really get from Cob Cannons, Glooms, one-time-use plants, and to a lesser extent from firepeas melons spikerocks and fumes). And unless your DPS is insane you'll generally also want some AoE status (which you can only really get from winter melons and Ice shrooms). So...your backbone will pretty much always be built out of some of these. But...I feel like damn near half the plants are viable in some setup or another, even if just in a support role.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 07, 2012, 05:02:30 PM
SC2 Heart of the Swarm

So...most people playing the Beta seems to think that Warhounds are broken; let's take a look...

Cost:
150 minerals
75 gas
2 supply

Stats:
2.81 movement speed
7 range
23 damage, 1.3 cooldown (17.7 DPS)
220 HP

So...I've seen a lot of people comparing this to Marauder.  Stat-wise the unit this immediately reminds me of is actually the Roach.  About the same movement speed as upgraded roaches (slightly slower even).  Twice the damage and 50% more HP in exchange for twice the cost (so...3x overall stats for 2x overall cost--this should result in a dead even fight assuming no micro: good ol n*(n-1)/2 formula and all that).  If you were to double all the costs of the roach, I would expect basically this -exact- HP/DPS to keep the balance the same.


There are two stats that immediately jump out at me however:

7 range.  Combined with high speed this allows them to kite just about everything.  Not only that, but 7 range actually lets them siege some stuff--outrange Planetary Fortresses and bunkers, for instance.  Compare to roaches which are characterized by having super short range.
2 supply.  Remember beta roaches?  That cost 1 supply?  Well THEY'RE BACK!  And they're a Terran unit now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 14, 2012, 02:59:28 AM
Old post from Slashdot, but since this is mc's thread and this was something I had to check to see if mc had posted due to previous highest-finite-number shenanigans, the Magic The Gathering Turing machine:

http://www.toothycat.net/~hologram/Turing/HowItWorks.html
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2012, 10:55:25 PM
Starcraft 2

So...thinking about infestor brood lord...

It has a really high cost per population.  If we just add up the gas and mineral pop of an army and divide by the population....

SCV/Probe/Drone: 50/pop
Zealot/Marine/Hellion/Zergling/Roach: 50/pop
Marauder: 62/pop
Sentry/hydralisk/queen: 75/pop
Thor/Ultralisk/Colossus/Banshee: 83/pop
Stalker/Immortal: 87/pop
Siege Tank: 91/pop
Reaper/Muta/Medivac/high templar/archon/observer/warp prism/mothership: 100/pop
Viking: 112/pop
Battlecruiser/Carrier: 117/pop
Dark Templar/phoenix/Corruptor/Infestor: 125/pop
Void Ray: 133/pop
Brood Lord: 137/pop
Ghost/Baneling/Raven: 150/pop
Overseer: infinity/pop

Point is, if you take 120 pop of Brood Lord Infestor corruptor, and face it off against 120 pop of, oh, let's say Stalker Colossus, there's going to be a significant army value lead.  Like...15000 army value to 11000 army value.  Terran can get away with saccing a bunch of SCVs in favour of orbitals, but even if terran has 170 pop of, let's say a mech army, that's still only about 14000 army value.

Funny thing about this composition, with the exception of the infestor, I don't necessarily feel units in this composition are incredibly cost efficient, but they are very supply efficient.  I also find it interesting that units which are being transitioned to lategame to fight this also tend to be on the expensive side for the cost.  Raven Battlecruiser, for instance.  Mothership, Archon, Carrier for toss.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 06, 2012, 03:25:35 PM
Natural Selection 2

ok, so like...this game has damage types:

http://www.unknownworlds.com/ns2/wiki/index.php/Damage_types

Normal damage, which the -vast- majority of attacks (early on) qualify as, deals half-damage to armor.  This means you should generally value every point of armor about twice as much as every point of HP.

Near as I can tell, all the damage types where the interaction with armor is not specified (like structural) maintain the same 2:1 ratio.

As for some others...see that bit about Corrode "Deals damage to structures only and double damage to armor."  The double damage to armor is actually not true at all--at least for Bile Bomb.  It deals half damage to armor just like everything else in the game I've tested.

As for "light damage" that "every point of armor absorbs 4 points of damage" well...I only tested Xenocide, but it also seems to be the same 2:1 ratio.



So...basically, when calculating durability, just do

HP + Armor*2

Everything I've tested seems to follow that formula.


Now, what DOES seem to be working as described is stuff that only hurts buildings/only hurts players, or deals bonuses to one or both of these groups.  Lerk spores don't hurt buildings.  Bile Bomb is unremarkable against players, but about 300 DPS against buildings.

Speaking of corrode damage, I don't think the upgraded whip has the stats claimed in the wiki; bombard seems to deal more like 600 damage than 1200 damage, which given the 6 second cooldown is not that impressive (about 100 DPS).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 03, 2013, 05:39:25 PM
Plants vs Zombies

So...when going full on econ whore (like...sunflower + imitater sunflower + twin sunflower), what should you use for your early defence when that first zombie appears in a lane.

There are a few options:

Potato Mine: costs 25 sun, must be planted 3 squares in advance of the defence square.  (Takes 15 seconds to arm).
Squash: costs 50 sun.  Can be planted after the zombie has entered the defence square.
Peashooter or one a dozen variations on peashooter like cabage pult: costs 100 sun, must be planted 2 squares in advance of the defending square, but actually leaves you with something built.

So...between Potato Mine and Squash, if you reinvest the 25 sun you could have spent on a potato mine into sunflowers, will you have 50 sun by the time the zombie arrives?  Well...sunflowers produce sun roughly every 20 seconds, and tend to produce a sun shortly after being planted, so...the 25 sun you invested in the sunflower will probably have been reimbursed or will shortly be reimbursed by the time you have to use the squash.  Which leaves another 25 you have to spend on the squash.  So...your income doesn't save you significantly when you hold off and squash.

Overall, these two are very balanced.

Peashooter vs Potatomine/Squash...It depends how soon after the first threat in the lane the second threat in the lane comes.  If it's about 30 seconds, then peashooter is roughly break-even.  I want to say that approximately after the first zombie, one zombie will spawn in a random lane every 20 seconds, so most of the time this is not worth-it.

Special mention should be made of the Cattail, though; 2 homing DPS for 250 sun.  Expensive enough that potato mines and squashes should still be the the opener (if zombies are spawning every 20 seconds, spending 25 on a potato mine and reinvesting 225 in sunflowers that will pay you back in 20 seconds seems like the better play).  But increase zombie frequency even a little bit, and cattails become the obvious best play.  (Cattails are pretty OP).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 07, 2013, 03:07:12 AM
Upgrade Complete:

I'm assuming stats haven't changed since I last messed around with this game.  Which is to say: guns provide the most DPS, but there's a maximum number of them that can affect a target.  Missiles home in on the furthest target.  Lightning sucks.  In general, buying an extra of a weapon does more than upgrading.

Messed around with the lowest number of ship components needed to beat the game.  Managed to do it with 4 given a fair amount of retrying levels.  Setup was guns on the bottom corners, missiles on the top corners.  3 ship components really does not seem possible; tried all configurations of level 5 gun/missile on wave 20; all of them lost in a way that made it seem not close at all.

Beating wave 20 with a 30,000 cost ship is still possible (went 4 L1 missiles, 5 L2 guns, 3 L1 guns).  Not sure if less than that is possible.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 12, 2013, 07:28:54 PM
Starcraft 2.

So like...I saw some zergs streaming, completely wiping out a toss army (killing the mothership, colossus, etc).  All the toss had left was like a warp in of stalkers; maybe 20.  The Zerg had a good 12 or so brood lords left.  And bear in mind that the player in question was trying to win games quickly to grind ladder points against weaker opponents.  So anyway, the conversation went something like "we can't engage that can we?"  "No, we need to retreat the brood lords back to the spine crawlers."  And I was like "wat."

After a little bit of testing, turns out yes: 20 stalkers beats 10 brood lords, despite BLs costing a lot more, and being "anti ground specialists".  This was a little surprising to me.  Like...the equivalent Terran airforce, 20 banshees, destroys 20 stalkers.  (Actually, it's a little cheaper to get 20 banshees than 10 brood lords, but on the flip side they cost 60 supply instead of 40).  The equivalent anti-ground siege units...10 colossi destroy 20 stalkers; 20 siege tanks can a-move in tank mode through 20 stalkers.

Obviously there's other stuff that makes brood lords good, like messing with pathfinding, and long distance sieging from empty space, but it's amazing how weak the stats are on this "OP" unit.

In the mean time, Void Rays.  Zerg's been nerfed a couple of times recently (with the infestor--notably infested terrans no longer get upgrades) and I started wondering...wait, how do zergs fight 3/3 Void Rays now?  And note that the unit has to win on an equal supply basis, not equal cost basis.  Infestors...kinda failed in my tests.  Which is to say, at full energy, they still win, but at 75 energy, void rays can a-move through that amount of 0/0 infested terrans.  Hydras failed; not enough value for the supply; three hydras just don't beat two Void Rays.  Corruptors failed (void rays deal bonus damage and can charge up on cors; cors don't deal bonus damage back).  Queens......succeeded!  By a landslide.  A-moved queens off-creep with no transfuse energy won consistently against a-moved void rays (at least when it was 15 queens vs 10 VRs).

And there you have it....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 13, 2013, 05:54:44 AM
Heart of the Swarm

So like...the current status of...stuff.

Mothership Core:
cost: 100/100
HP+shield: 190
DPS: higher than a Stalker or a Mutalisk (but only hits ground!)
Build time: 30s (makes you miss out building probes, but it's pretty fast; faster than orbital command)

I'd probably build these even if it didn't have all the spells.

Spells:
Make nexus into a 13 range photon cannon for 60 seconds.  (60 seconds?  Really?  I watched someone try to harass with mutalisks, went to one base, it got photoned, so went and harassed the other two; came back to the first, overcharge was still ongoing...).
Mass Recall: Protoss can move out on the map and not be scared of counters.

This comes across as mostly a redesign of the race, making it so that toss doesn't need to worry about pretty much anything earlygame (provided they don't get killed before getting 100 gas and a cybernetics core--6 pool might still be viable).  But yeah, I've seen nydus play get shut down by recall->overcharge.  Harass strategies are a lot weaker.

Spells:
Time Warp
Ah, Starjeweled's Time Bomb.  This is...a really good spell.  Like...it's a lot like what Vortex would be if there was no archon toilet.  Cut your opponent's army damage in half, and mess with their micro/retreat options.  It's like...if guardian shield cut damage in half instead of -2, and messed with army positioning (making your opponent kiteable/unable to run).  (Also, stacks with Guardian Shield).

So like...Time Warp just makes protoss armies better.  It was moved from the Oracle to the Mothership Core because Blizzard realized the spell was really freaking good, and thinks that maybe restricting to only one unit that can cast it might prevent it from being broken (because this worked so well with Vortex).


The existence of Time Warp just makes all pressure better.  For instance, Sentry Immortal allin, which was barely holdable as-is, add time warp and...no.  Zerg can't go 3 base and expect not to die.  (People keep saying 2 base zerg is the standard, and that's why).



Oracle:
Ok, well, since all the fancy stuff has been removed from it leaving it with two vision abilities and one damage ability it's...basically a Banshee!

Compared to a Banshee it...
Costs 150/150 instead of 150/100.
Has 160 HP instead of 140
Has 4 range instead of 6
Has 29 DPS light, 17 DPS armored instead of Banshee's 19 DPS
Has 3.375 speed instead of 2.75 speed.
Needs to spend energy in order to attack at all.
Can't cloak (but can detect temporarily >_>)

Ok, so...definitely worse than banshees overall, but like...better in some important areas (like DPS against workers, like movement speed).  I actually really like this addition; it's a protoss unit that isn't just a deathball addition.  Granted, it does ok in deathballs against terran, because it shreds marines.  But still, a speedy harass unit for toss is pretty cool.  Seems kinda clunky that it needs to cast a spell just to attack, but whatever.



Tempest:
Seems really OP.
Like...remember my testing of brood lords above, where 20 stalkers kill 10 brood lords comfortably?  Quick calculations tell me 20 stalkers do not kill 10 Tempests.  Oh, and Tempests are cheaper than their brood lord cousins.
Tempests are faster than BLs.
Tempests have 50% more range.
Tempests hit air AND ground.

Like...I'm not even sure 10 vikings beat 5 tempests (it's pretty close).  And these units have the same supply, and close to the same cost.  Seriously, WTF.

Oh, you know what else Tempests need?  Let's have them deal triple their normal damage to air massive.  Like...ok, I can see the design decision behind this bonus--change lategame PvP so it's not all colossus all the time.  But the splash on the metagame is massive; don't make brood lords against Toss, ever, except maybe as a narrow timing attack.  If you were considering a battlecruiser transition against P, don't.  It is kind-of insulting that Tempests are better against air-massive than Corruptors (like...across the board better.  For the cost of two corruptors, Tempests get more than twice the HP and more than twice the massive DPS, and more than twice the range).

Like...I doublechecked another website to make sure these stats are right.  Seriously, WAT.

Even without the bonus to massive, my calculations suggest that Tempests would be...actually quite possibly cost effective against Carriers (mostly thanks to 2 base armor; Carriers are bad against that; also, the whole "being much cheaper" thing).

Void Ray
Instead of charging up, there's an ability you activate.  Which...simultaneously makes them less noob-friendly, and lowers their skill ceiling; not sure how I feel about this.  On the flip side, they're finally 4 supply (they spent quite a while at ridiculous amount of army value per supply.  Not quite ghost/baneling level, but I believe they were third; being maxed on void rays was really scary).



Terran

Hellbats
It's a roach!  With 2 range instead of 4, no speed upgrade, which deals 30 damage to light instead of 20, and has splash.  Ok, and 10 less HP too, but honestly they're a light unit so more durable in practice.

Like...what is up with attempts at giving Terran Roaches in HotS.  First Warhounds now Hellbats.  Hellbats are even biological!  At least these ones are properly 2 supply, and not 7 range, and trade some speed and range for AoE.

Although, funny story, these were supposed to be anti-zealot tech for TvP, but hellbat drops are mostly dominating TvT  earlygame instead.

Tanks
They don't require siege mode research!  Because, clearly, you should need to spend 400/400 on Hydras before you can use them, but Siege Tanks should require no upfront investment.

Widow Mine
You know what strategy needs buffing?  Apparently mech, especially early in the game when we don't want to force poor meching players to tech to thors or build out of their barracks in order to hit air.  (At least, this is the justification I found on the internet for widow mines existing)
Cost-wise they're...a roach (75/25 and 2 supply).  If you drop them in a mineral line, they need to kill...two probes to be worth-it (and they deal 40 splash, which should one-shot probes and drones).  Dunno, seems like it's not hard to make these cost effective.  If they snipe one baneling, they're close to paying for themselves.  (In fact, they cost only slightly more than a baneling, and deal 40 splash damage compared to Baneling's 20, not to mention a bunch of singletarget damage).  You can't really roll them into a frontal attack.  Well...wait, that's not true; three widow mines to kill a supply depot wall.  These things are going to be hilarious rush tools in 2v2.

Overall fairly unique as a unit, though.  A burrow unit with 5 range means there are solid ways of countering it without taking damage.

Medivac
Nerfed back in 2010 to be slower; now unnerfed to be faster again, cause mech was given lots of toys and they wanted to give bio something I guess.

Thor
So...they no longer have energy, making them not feedback bait (long overdue).  Now they get high impact payload which takes away their splash, and makes them deal 24 damage with a cooldown of 2.  Which is...kinda bad.  Like...ok, against nonlight it's 12 DPS instead of 8 DPS.  And the gap is larger if your target has armor (some capital ships have 2 armor, so like...against 2 armor it's 11 DPS rather than 5.3 DPS.  Hmm...honestly, yeah that's useful, but Thors were usually able to hit two targets with the air splash, and if you're going mech your mech upgrades would often be ahead of air armor upgrades, so it's not like "OMG, thors are twice as good against brood lords now" or anything like that.  They have a nice option which you probably use, and actually thor vs brood lord fights will probably become more fun to watch (since brood lords have a slower firing rate, and thus should stutter step, but if they stutter step on one control group they might clump making them AoE bait....  Sounds fun to watch).

Reaper
Wat.
So...they're mutalisks now; which means they need large groups to do even respectable damage.  But they also don't hit air.  Like...I don't really get it.  Terran has banshees.  One Banshee costs less than three Reapers and deals the same damage and hits the same targets and has more range and has...a little less HP and no passive regen.  Reapers are like...an earlygame scout and not much more at the moment.



Zerg

Hydralisk
They're still kinda awful.  Like...ok, 100/100 for a hydra den.  150/150 for range.  150/150 for speed.  The speed only upgrades their speed off-creep (and leaves them still slower than stalkers and stim bio and speed roaches; it's actually a kind-of marginal upgrade now that I look at it; roach speed is a bigger buff, works off-creep, and costs less).

Ultralisk
They still have less ground DPS than Thors, but at least they are no longer inverse hellions but get to be an all-purpose unit.  In practice when I've watched them used, they don't come across as super powerful.  People counter them with Marauders and Immortals, and those fights haven't even changed (actually, they've gotten fractionally worse for Ultras as Ultras only get +3 per upgrade now, when it used to be +2/+4).  Attacking into an army with five immortals and a bunch of zealots  with ultras doesn't end really any better--the ultras still die.  I will, however, note that Ultras are almost straight up better than Roaches now.  Same speed.  5x the DPS for 5x the cost.  Maybe not quite 5x the durability...but they're a lot less vulnerable to splash and have more armor, so certainly close to 5x durability.  6 supply instead of 10 for equivalent resource investment.  Although, granted, they're still not ranged, so you can't stack multiple rows like roaches.

That said, as I understand the current metagame, ZvZ and ZvP tend to be about dealing with an air force, and ultras can't shoot up, so they'll probably still be an oddity outside of ZvT.  ZvT they'll be...a more serious option, instead of just "that tech switch if brood lords aren't working."

Infestor
Honestly probably situational now, which is fine.  Fungal used to be decent to good against everything, and absolutely disgusting murder against marines and banelings.  Now it's probably bad against lots of stuff, but still good against marines and banelings.  This does leave zerg with rather trashy antiair, though.

Mutalisk
They got buffed in speed and significantly in regeneration, fungal was made dodgeable, and now mutas apparently dominate ZvZ.  Act surprised.

Swarm Host
So...they cost the same as two hydralisks.  They spawn two locusts.  Locusts have literally hydralisk DPS (and 3 range, and can't shoot up, and less HP; but still: basically you're spawning free hydras).

So like...thought experiment.  One Zerg makes Swarm Hosts.  The other makes Roaches and an overseer.  The Roaches kill the locusts in...let's say 8 seconds (it's probably less).  Which leaves 13 seconds before the next locusts would spawn.

But Swarm Hosts needs to take zerg the distance--this is the unit that Zergs really need to get value out of to match the buffs that Terran and Protoss got.  (Well...this or muta, really; I don't have a ton of faith in the hydra or ultra buffs).  Can swarm hosts deliver?  Actually...maybe.

At least in ZvP, protoss was never too keen on fighting a pack of hydras without colossus.  Combine with antiair and an overseer to snipe observers.  If they try to come out and fight your antiair, well they have a pack of locusts to get through, which is lot like moving a toss army through a group of hydras--not ideal.  Ideally get Corruptors to deal with the obvious colossus transition (and these can also be used to snipe observers).

In ZvT, they seem pretty awful against bio (bio hasn't been buffed too much, though, so that matchup should be pretty similar).  But they also seem like they could be solid against mech.  Widow Mines they trigger for free.  They can chip a little at armies with tanks in them (without taking horrible damage).  They can kite thors (and most of mech, really; release locusts, reposition, release locusts, reposition).  Hellions probably cause them trouble.  But in general, Mech finds moving out awkward, and Swarm Hosts are siege units, which means they like opponents who don't move out.

Viper
Ever since the announce trailer this has been the coolest-sounding unit in HotS, and not much has changed.

There...honestly is nothing I can compare it to in WoL.  It's a spellcaster that can't deal damage or kill units on its own.  Such a thing does not exist in WoL.  Closest analogue would be the Sentry, which can isolate one unit with forcefields (kinda like abduct) and use guardian shield (kinda like blinding cloud).  Except Abduct works on massive and air units.  And Blinding Cloud shuts down like...Planetary Fortresses and Siege Tanks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 24, 2013, 03:43:19 PM
Heart of the Swarm.

So...ZvT seems to be in a strange spot these days.

I feel like Zerg is quite a bit weaker in the midgame--can't really deal with MMM+Hellbat.  Like...five hellbats in an MMM composition mean that you can't use ling baneling, and need to use a roach or roach hydra army.  you just can't surround an MMM army with a few hellbats with ling bane, because Hellbats exist to not be surrounded.  Simultaneously, widow mines can mostly shut down muta harass, and infestors are a lot weaker.

At the same time, I feel like the mid lategame swings pretty strongly towards zerg.  Ultras are much better against...really bio or mech, and Vipers are actually a pretty big deal, shutting down siege tank lines.  I guess the answer to Vipers is vikings, but Vipers do hit much, much sooner than Brood Lords, and you don't want to commit to vikings if your opponent shows up with surprise ultras.

But then the ultra lategame, where you have Terran with Raven Battlecruiser Viking Siege Tank...there was literally no army zerg could build against this in Wings of Liberty.  Corruptors got seeker missiled and cleaned up pretty fast.  If zerg tries to poke close at all, they eat a yamato.  And so on.  I've watched matches were Terrans had no mining bases and zergs had three defended by 40 spore crawlers, and Terran won.  It seems like this will only get worse in heart of the swarm, with 10 range seeker missile, faster battlecruisers.  Although there's two potential game changers: predictive fungals (and longer range fungals) let infestors hit fungal on, probably vikings, from further away.  And Viper Abduct could slowly kill the battlecruisers (if the Terran is on his micro you should definitely lose a viper in the process, but trading a viper for a BC is fantastic).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 01, 2013, 08:32:51 AM
Puppylisk's guide to 2v2

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=400724#16

It's kinda neat, because I see a lot of builds for zerg that are pretty close to ones I figured out on my own.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 15, 2013, 06:46:29 PM
Probably should have linked this earlier but...

Remember this?  Highest finite combo from an MtG deck that can't go infinite?

http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/phpconversion.php

Well we've been updating the combo this week, and are in the process of going through new cards:

http://community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/75842/19003230/Most_turn-1_damage_in_a_deck_that_cant_go_infinite?post_num=70#529619129
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 05, 2013, 04:08:50 AM
Probably should have linked this earlier but...

Remember this?  Highest finite combo from an MtG deck that can't go infinite?

http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/phpconversion.php

Well we've been updating the combo this week, and are in the process of going through new cards:

http://community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/75842/19003230/Most_turn-1_damage_in_a_deck_that_cant_go_infinite?post_num=70#529619129

Aaand combo update complete.  This time Jolt135 a.k.a. Sadistic Mystic wrote the article, since I wrote it last time:

http://soniccenter.org/sm/mtg/megacombo.html
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 21, 2013, 07:41:14 PM
Ok, I've been getting some suggestions that since the EU version of starjeweled is 1.9, I should download the EU version and see if any of the stats are different.

First, after some searching, here's a way that actually works to switch editor regions

Quote
FFS.

Its a bloody registry change ... go make a reg file so you can 1 click update the registry.

HKEY_USERS\xxx\Software\Blizzard Entertainment\StarCraft II Editor\Preferences

Singapore = Physical location of SEA server

"BattleNetHost"="sg.logon.battle.net"

"BattleNetHost"="us.logon.battle.net"

"BattleNetHost"="eu.logon.battle.net"

Only works for the editor, don't try be a smart ass and change it for the game, won't work.

And yeah, I figured this out myself, no one told me how. Its how I quickly upload to all servers.

If you don't have a battlenethost field (like me) just make one; done.


Now on to the stats...

Marine
30 HP
0 Armor (Biological, Light)
damage: 4
cool: 1.5
range: 4
(unchanged)

Zealot
70 HP
3 Armor (Biological, Light)
Movement: 2.25 + 0.5 (charge) --most units are 2.25
damage: 8 (+2 biological)
cool: 1.2 (x2 attacks)
range: 0.1
(unchanged)

Roach:
145 HP
1 Armor (Armored Biological)
Regeneration Rate: 2 HP/sec (most zerg units regenerate 0.2734 HP/sec)
Damage: 16 (+6 light)
cool: 2
Range 4
(Possibly changed...?  I should check if the regeneration rate exists on NA)

Ghost:
100 HP
0 Armor (Biological Psionic)
Damage: 8 (+12 Light)
Range: 6
Cool: 1.5
Snipe: 40 damage for 25 energy (starting energy of 50)
(identical)

Hydralisk:
110 HP
0 Armor (Biological Light)
Damage: 8 (+2 armored)
Range: 5
Cool: 0.4
(identical)

Mutalisk:
100 HP
3 Armor (Biological, Light)
Movement: 3.75 (most units are 2.25)
Damage: 30 + 20 + 10
Range 5  (3 range between glaive bounces)
Cool: 1.5246
(identical)

Banshee
125 HP
3 Armor (Light Mechanical)
Movement: 2.75 (most units are 2.25)
Damage: 15 (+15 Armored)
Range: 6
Cool: 1.4 (x2 attacks)

Siege Tank
100 HP
1 Armor (Armored, Mechanical)
Damage: 18 (+40 structure)
Range: 11
Cool: 2
(identical)

Immortal
250 HP, 2 shield
3 Armor (Armored, Mechanical)
0 Shield Regeneration (Hardened shields reduce damage to 1)
Damage: 35 (+55 Structure)
Range: 5
Cool: 1.8
(identical)

Colossus
400 HP
3 Armor (Armored, Mechanical, Massive)
Damage: 15 (+25 light)
Range: 7
Cool: 2.2 (x2 attacks)
(identical)

Ultralisk
500 HP
5 Armor
Life Regeration: 2 HP/Sec  (most zerg units regenerate 0.2734 HP/sec)
Damage: 16 (+52 Armored)
Range: 1
Cool: 0.861
(Again, not sure if the life regeneration is in the NA version; that's something to check)

Photon Cannon
800 HP
3 Armor
Damage: 20 (Fun trivia: this is literally the only damage value that was not modified from SC2...)
Range: 10.5
Cool: 0.8
(identical)

Base:
400 HP
1 Armor
0.3984 Life regeneration rate
(identical)

Spells: look similar.  My previously posted calculations about Heal Wave may be incorrect; I was guessing that divide by 16 was correct, but upon closer inspection I think it's actually multiply by 0.05625, which means the values would actually be:

1st: 270 HP
2nd: 162 HP
3rd: 97 HP
4th: 58 HP
5th: 35 HP


Ok...let me check if those regeneration rates on Roaches and Ultras are in the NA version......yes, yes they are.  Ok, so everything's identical.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 02, 2013, 08:35:37 AM
So...my office is going to be doing an MtG draft.  Now, the upcomming draft format takes one pack from each new Ravnica set.  The first two sets were drafted in isolation (each one having 5/10 two-colour pairs) this one will be drafted in combination (the third set has all 10 colour pairs, and will be drafted with the first two sets).

So that's cool and everything, but as my coworker said "that's not how we roll here"--they tend to draft 3x of the newest set so that they open more packs.  lol

So...how degenerate is triple Dragon's Maze going to be?  Well...it was designed to slow the limited format down.  In the first two sets, the expectation was that people would play 2-colour decks; when all three sets are drafted together, it's not reasonable to play less than three just because some 2-colour pairings aren't supported in some packs.  As a result, they made the first two sets faster, and Dragon's Maze slower.  How much slower?

http://puremtgo.com/articles/ars-arcanum-dragons-maze-limited-primer-part-i

Quote
In this chart we see the average Converted Mana Cost, the average power and toughness, and most importantly, we see the average differential between power and toughness. The converted mana cost is definitely on the high side, coming in even higher than Avacyn Restored. Furthermore, it has the highest average toughness of any set for which I have done this type of analysis. But the most telling statistic is the power and toughness differential. As I’ve mentioned, this is the difference between the power and the toughness, and it is a key indicator for the speed of the format. Whenever we have a format with a P/T Differential that is either a small negative number, or a positive number, we end up having an aggressive format, like with GTC or AVR. When you see a large negative differential, you end up having a much slower format. The number -0.5 is the biggest negative differential that I have seen in any of the sets I have analyzed. The best set to compare this to would be something like Rise of the Eldrazi.

If we add up all of this data, along with the fact that this is a multicolor format that will almost certainly require you to play three colors, as well as a cycle of ten cluestones to ramp decks to higher mana during the midgame, we are certainly looking at a very slow format. If we were drafting DGM all by itself, it would be the slowest format in years. I suspect that even after adding GTC and RTR, that this will still be the slowest format since Rise of the Eldrazi.

Sounds like incredibly slow.

The most common P/T in the set is 2/4, with a cycle of commons in every colour at that P/T, and various random rares also sharing that P/T.  Thing about 2/4 vs 2/4 is that you can't attack--two 2/4s can gang block one 2/4 and kill it without suffering losses.

The mechanical themes in Dragon's Maze...so...technically it has all the mechanics of Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash.  Realistically, though, it has one common and one rare with the guild mechanic per guild.  So...if you're thinking "slow format you say?  I should build around Extort!"  Well.....good luck with that, as one out of every six packs will have an extort card.  (10 commons per pack, 60 commons in total, 1 of them has extort).

So...what is the mechanical theme of this set then?

My first answer would be...gates!

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368996
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369046

There is a cycle of 5 gatekeepers, each of which require two gates (a type of land) to get a CIP effect.  And most of them have a pretty solid payoff (like...at or just below constructed playable if you do have the gates; pretty good for a 4-mana common creature).

So how hard is two gates to set up?  Almost every pack will have a gate in it, which means that each drafter will get an average of 3 gates in their deck.  If you want to consistently set up two gates by like...turn 7 or so, you really need about 6 gates in your 40 card deck.  So...you'd need to end up with twice as many as normal.  And gates are dual-lands, they weren't going to be straight up ignored even without mechanical relevance.  I think 6 gates is doable, but probably requires taking gates like...2nd and 3rd pick or so, and not being too picky about the colours it makes.  Is that worth-it?  I don't know.

The second major mechanic is multicolour matters.  There's a cycle of 5 common creatures at 6CMC which range from "OMFG that's good"

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369014

To....meh

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368976

The good news is that you don't really have to draft weird to get the mechanic going; you're going to be taking multicolour bomb creatures.  (Notably, the set is designed such that most of the commons are monocolour, and most of the uncommons and rares are multicolour, so your big bomb creatures will mostly benefit from these).  The bad news is that they are not all created equal.

Blue is awesome: mass flying will win games.
Black is also good: when everyone's a 2/4, deathtouch becomes pretty sexy.
Green...well, when everyone's a 2/4, trample becomes pretty unsexy
Red, white, vigilance and haste aren't that exciting in a format where attacking tends to be unprofitable for the attacker.

So...what else is there in abundance...?

Cluestones!

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369017

Like...for reals, this is 10 commons in the set, out of 60 commons.  The average pack will contain two cluestones.  The average drafter will get six cluestones in their final cardpool.  I can't really picture a situation where you'd even want to play that many.  Point is, don't fight over these.


Evasion creatures: are pretty scarce.  Unblockable is only on Aetherling.  Protection is only on rares with one exception (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369027) (which is also the only landwalker in the set).

Flying, however, is an exception in that it is quite well supported.  Not only that, it seems to be less inclined towards "high toughness no power" as a rule.

Beetleform Mage
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369000
(incidentally, one of the few commons that can get 4 power...)
Wind Drake
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369037
Rakdos Drake
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369085
(technically it's a 2/3, which might seem more defencive, except it can't block)
Steeple Roc
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368992
(Fairly unimpressive)
Maze Glider
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369014
(a bomb, and the one higher toughness than power at common)

And while we're at it...
Thrashing Mossdog
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369020
(Has reach.  I read this card about five times without realizing this; pretty important)

Really only one or two of these is more about blocking than attacking.

At uncommon...

Ascended Lawmage
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369016
(3/2 you say?)
Fluxcharger
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368955
(mostly defensive, but can turn on the heat)
Jelen Sphinx
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368947
(defensive stats, but an ability that wants to attack)

Not really definitive either way.  At Rare...

Call
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369063&part=Call
(4 1/1 tokens?  Yeah, you attack when you have that)
Dragonshift
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369061
(Basically just an overrun)
Mirko Vosk
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369026
(a 3 turn clock or something crazy, despite the 2/4 stats)


So...on to removal...

I'm actually wondering if the best common removal is Runner's Bane
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368966
Almost everything has 3 or less power, including some fairly scary 6 mana commons.  Uncommon is where the super splashy removal is, of course, with putrefy and helixes running around.



On to the next theme....enters the battlefield triggers!

All five of the gatekeepers have them, of course.  But also several noteworthy uncommons like...

Trostani's Summoner
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369072
(which is already a beating)
Scab-Clan Giant
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369005
(which doesn't really have to worry about misfiring when everything has 2 power)
Bronzebeak Moa
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368971

Which is...not too much of a theme without the gatekeepers.  But it is something to keep an eye out for since

Species Gorger
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369015
looks fantastic, and...
Deputy of Acquittals
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369084
Is honestly worth running even without an enters the battlefield theme.

(I would in fact love to get Species Gorger and Trostani's Summoner going at the same time.  They're both uncommon, so it's not that crazy).



So...I think I'm most impressed by blue at the moment, as it delivers the flyers and delivers probably the best common removal against this particular field (and blue has a lot of good multicolour uncommon removal too; Simic Arrest, turn//burn, far//away).  If I'm really thinking it's going to be a purely slow format, blue also steps in with stuff like card draw and counterspells, which are normally only ok in faster limited formats.  And if other people come to the same conclusion, ok, then there'll be a lot of fighting over blue.

But I think the most significant decision is whether to take gates aggressively, trying to get 6-7.  Or...whether to go for power uncommons with the early draft picks.  I feel like the bombier cards will be better in a super slow format, so probably the uncommons (depending on whether they're good uncommons, granted).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on May 02, 2013, 04:41:41 PM
Sounds like it'll be similar to the prerelease events in some respect.  Those were Sealed format, running 4 packs of Dragon's Maze and two of the special guild packs from RTR/Gatecrash.  Reports from them indicate:

- There's almost no removal in Dragon's Maze, so anything you see in draft is probably a slam pick.
- There are a lot of bombs that will just outright win a game, moreso than most sets, and made worse by the limited amount of removal.  Nothing you can really do but be aware of that.
- Contrary to expectations, heavy DGM seems like a very aggressive format.  There are plenty of high cost/high toughness guys, but most of the defensive creatures can't actually stabilize a board vs the good attackers (Trostani's Summoner being a notable exception), and again there's no removal to let a controlling deck back in the game.  Phytoburst (http://magiccards.info/dgm/en/46.html (http://magiccards.info/dgm/en/46.html)) in particular is a huge beating, especially in multiples.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 03, 2013, 06:57:19 AM
Well...low removal does not necessarily make for a fast format.  Rise of the Eldrazi was intentionally light on removal to make big bombs playable, and it was a slow-ish format.

It's also noteworthy that two packs from other sets are pretty important.  Not because the other sets have more aggressive creatures (although sure, they do) but because those two packs allow you to play a 2 colour deck, and 2 colour decks just tend to be faster.  Whereas triple DGM...I dunno if everyone is going to be playing 5 colour or anything that crazy, but I would expect everyone to be 3 colour maybe splashing more, and probably 3 lands that ETB tapped.

Phytoburst is...a sorcery.  Like...I think it's actually probably good in constructed (Might of old Krosa was good in constructed even though Giant Growth was not).  But in general Phytoburst reminds me a little of Browbeat.  It's 2 mana for target player sacrifices a creature unless they have Phytoburst deal 5 damage to him or her.  Which...edicts aren't that great to begin with, and ones that don't even always kill...yeah.  Granted, Dragon's Maze only has two regenerating creatures and one indestructible creature, and none of them are commons, so that does mean phytoburst should at least almost always be a browbeat-edict.


Now, I do agree that Dragon's Maze looks very bomb dominated, but that's different from being a fast format.  Like...in a bomb format you really want to play your Divination variant, as it helps you to draw into bombs, draw into removal, draw into lands to play your bombs...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369099
Whereas in an aggressive format you would really want to play your aggressive bear (or better) 2 drops...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368972
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369028

When I say this is a slow format, I mean that I don't think I should be high-picking 2/2s for 2.  (And I can't high pick 1-drops because they don't even exist; none in the entire set.  Zero).  And on turn 3, I feel like I'm quite possibly better playing a cluestone to ramp/manafix/draw into bombs than I would be playing, say, one of these:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369070
(Although, honestly, the three drop slot does have three different variations on Wind Drake, which I would happily play, and would certainly prioritize over the cluestone, being like...almost the only fliers in the set at any rarity).



But sure, let me look over the removal, and how little there is...

Common removal...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369029
(sucks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368988
(really really bad in triple DGM.  One evolve creature outside of rare!  One unleash creature outside of rare.  Whoooo!!)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369043
(sucks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369054
(Phytoburst, as mentioned it's kind-of an edict, sometimes!)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368966
(Still looking like the best common removal by far; 2 mana, immediately removes as a blocker stuff that costs up through 6)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369077
(Doesn't stop them from attacking you, but hey, you can tap a defender)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368962
(4 mana for a shock.  Underwhelming)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369090
(5 mana for Incinerate......or more accurately 5 mana for entwined Barbed Lighting...hey that already cost 5 mana.  Yeah, in a vacuum this is still good enough for limited.  In a set where 4 is the most common toughness, this is probably a little worse than it initially looks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369046
(Gatekeeper version of Nekrataal.  Good if you have the gates; still only kills small stuff)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369050
(deathtouch for everyone!  Decent at fighting bombs)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369049
(One of the few commons that can kill big bombs.  And it's card advantage.  And it gets your bomb back...)

There's actually more common removal than I thought, most of it is just terrible.

Uncommon...
Wear//Tear kills artifacts and enchantments!  next

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368989&part=Armed
(honestly, a bit of a board wipe alpha strike moreso than removal)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369080&part=Burn
(100% kill one target, or sometimes 2-for-1)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369042&part=Far
(kill 2 creatures, more or less)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369094
(2 mana instant, something is probably dead unless it is very late in the game)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369071&part=Loss
(There aren't too many 1 toughness creatures to make this worthwhile)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369073
(Destroy target creature; 3 mana)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368945
(lolwut?)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369052
(Basically just kills a creature, and in a dire emergency can be moved from one creature to a massive bomb)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369081
(Remember what I said about 4 toughness being the most common?  This is quite good)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369064
(Remember what I said about the lack of +1/+1 counters?  yeah :(.  On the plus side, still a 2/5 deathtouch)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369005
(4 toughness is the most common, and damn near nothing has high enough power to kill it...but you can't target it).

EDIT: forgot this one:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368985
(Card advantage, kill a creature, with certainly the potential to kill a bomb.  Sounds quite good in the format.)

There's a good 4 or so that basically kill target creature at uncommon.  Granted, 4/40 uncommons means these straight up kill spells will show up about one every 3 packs.  So...yeah, proably one per deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 05, 2013, 09:30:27 PM
Ok, there are set reviews, I'm going to be referencing several:

LSV's from Channel Fireball
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/dragons-maze-set-review-white-azorius-and-orzhov/
This guys' set review
https://mtgshops.com/posts/dragons-maze-limited-set-review/87
This site's set review, which I hope is all written by one person
http://thoughtscour.com/category/set-review/

I will be sorting them by LSV, because he's LSV and has actual cred, unlike the other people I don't recognize

WHITE

Scion of Vitu-Ghazi
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.5
TS Sealed: 4.0
TS Draft: 4.0

First pick rare bomb, everyone agrees.  This might be a little worse in triple DGM than people are projecting for DGM/GTC/RTR because there aren't very many creature tokens better than a 1/1 bird outside of rare/mythic.  (Trostani's summoner makes 4/4 tokens, those are pretty cool, and Alive is a 3/3 token, but that's about it).

Haazda Snare Squad
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

LSV rates this card pretty high compared to everyone else; something to keep an eye on.  It's a good 3 drop, and there aren't a lot of those.

Renounce the Guilds
LSV: 3.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

Multicolour cards are more frequently bombs--unlike sac effects this will almost always hit something big which is why LSV rates this highly.  But a lot of other people seem skeptical about this, which means people might underrate it?

Sunspire Gatekeeper
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 3.0 (2.0 without 3 gates)
TS Draft: 3.0

Across the board pretty much total agreement on this one.  LSV also notes that it's worth running off-colour gates once you have about two gatekeepers.

Boros Mastiff
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

Bear.

Steeple Roc
LSV: 2.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.0

5 mana for a 3 power flier is consensus playable, but also consensus not that great.  TS does feel like it's better in slower formats (like sealed) though, so that's something to bear in mind.

Maze Sentinel
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

LSV gives this entire cycle lower than everyone else does, and I think the reason is that having a sensible mana curve is still important in limited, and chances are you're going to have uncommon or rare bombs to stick in the 6 slot.

Riot Control
LSV: 1.5
DO: 0.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone agrees this is garbage.  If people do play a lot of phytoburst, though, this is an obvious board-in.

Wake the Reflections
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.0
TS Sealed: 1.5
TS Draft: 2.0

I expect this to be total garbage in triple DGM due to a scarcity of token makers.  Moreso than it already is.

Lyev Decree
LSV: 1.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

LSV rates this a lot lower than the others--which it's a straight up card disadvantage sorcery that pushes a little more damage through; if I'm expecting the format to be slow and about bombs, I should probably think of this like LSV



AZORIOUS

Lavina of the Tenth
LSV: 4.0
DO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

Yeah, it's a bomb, and obviously so.

Ascended Lawmage
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Absolute and total consensus on this one.  Also noteworthy that Armadillo Cloak is in this set (under a different name, but whatever), and Ascended Lawmage is just about the best thing to cloak up in limited.

Beck//Call
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 4.0 (3.0 for just Call, 1.0 for just beck)
TS Draft: 4.0 (3.0, 1.0)

LSV is pretty clear on that he would play this whether or not he even had the mana to fuse it in his deck, and would not expect to fuse it very often at all.  He does make the point that 4 1/1 fliers in limited pretty much guarantees card advantage.

Council of the Absolute
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 3.0

LSV likes this a little more than the others; game one it's ramp that leaves a good body behind.  Game 2 you can stop their bomb.

Jelen Sphinx
LSV: 3.5
DO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

TS does note "I've given it a 3.0, but it might be better than that."


Deputy of Acquittals
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.5
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 2.5

Funnily enough with the same score from LSV as a practically vanilla bear...but costing two specific mana actually does hurt it a lot in the role the bear would fill (being aggressive; this is probably not dropping turn 2).

Protect//Serve
LSV: 3.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

It's a combat trick, and one of the only ones in the set, and one that has an outside potential for a 2-for-1.  LSV does rate this a little higher than the others, so that's something to pay attention to--it's a card that might come around the table and is worth taking.

Render Silent
LSV: 2.0
DO: 2.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Cancel according to LSV ranges from 1.5 to 3 depending on the format (the slower and more bomb intensive the format, the better it is, obviously).  I should maybe actually edge this up to 2.5-3 range in my evaluations just because of the low amount of removal and high bombiness of the format.  I'm not keen on the colour commitment, though.

Restore the Peace
LSV: 1.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

Yeah, this is pretty bad, particularly since it bounces your own stuff too if you get into any combat.  Although apparently has potential for a few people to overvalue it.



ORZHOV

Blood Baron of Vizkopa
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.0
TS Sealed: 4.5
TS Draft: 5.0

Obvious bomb

Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

5 turn unblockable clock, and your opponent can't really attack back.

Ready//Willing
LSV: 4.0
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 4.5
TS Draft: 4.0

If you cast both sides, you basically win.  Interesting that one site would undervalue this slightly, but with 2/3 people noticing how good it is, it's not like I can expect it to go around the table.

Tithe Drinker
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.5
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 3.0

I'm inclined to side a bit more with TS on this one--two drops are going to lower in value, and ones that cost two specific mana are almost never going to drop on turn 2.  Extort is still really good, though.

Maw of the Obzedat
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

One of those cards LSV rates more highly than the others, and the reason being he sees it as a nightmare to play against.  Which I think is the right way to think about it--if you consider it a proactive card, and start looking for tons 1/1s to sac, you're not going to find any, but as a reactive card that messes with removal and combat, even if you never activate it, makes decisions very hard for the opponent.

Profit//Loss
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Everyone recognizes this as good but not great in limited.  Interesting thing to note: LSV has this at the same score as protect//serve, which feels off to me.

Sin Collector:
LSV: 3.0
DO 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Eh, it will miss a lot, but 2-for-1s seem good if I expect the format to be slow at all, some bombs are spells not creatures, and information is good.

Debt to the deathless
LSV: 2.0
DO: 2.0
TS Sealed: 0.0
TS Draft: 0.0

Bombs will probably finish the game before mana gets this big.

Obzedat's Aid
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.5
TS Sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Yeah, only your graveyard hurts.



Ok, will summarize other colours/guilds later....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 06, 2013, 03:16:09 AM
BLUE:

Aetherling
LSV: 4.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

I think this might well be the best bomb in the set.  It pretty much beats or races all the other bombs pretty damn well, and is immune to removal if you keep mana open, and is roughly a 2 turn clock.

Runner's Bane
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Total 100% consensus.  Solid removal is solid.

Wind Drake
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Total consensus, it's fairly good.

Opal Lake Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO:3.0
TS sealed: 2.0 (3.0 with 4-5 gates)
TS draft: 2.0

Not sure why TS would put this one at 2.0 for draft compared to 3.0 for the white gatekeeper (1 card ~= a 2/2 token).

Maze Glider
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.5

I tend to evaluate this card a little bit high.  LSV does make the point of "make sure you have enough coloured creatures first".  I think his rating is a bit low, though--he puts it at the same level as Steeple Roc, 5 mana for a 3/1 flying first strike; this is 6 mana for a 3/5 flying that can be an overrun.

Murmuring Phantasm
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

It's a 2 drop.  That doesn't require two specific colours.  In a format short on 2 drops.  It's not bad.

Hidden Strings
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 2.0

I can hope someone misreads this and misses the lacking "and they don't untap"

Uncovered Clues
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 1.0

You're just unlikely to be able to play a critical mass of spells to make this work.  Although...unlike some of the other themes, like +1/+1 counters, there is at least a good amount of support for "spells"--15 split cards, and several more spells on top of that.  (64 spells in total, including 14 commons)

Mindstatic
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

You know, if I need to board in a counter, I actually like this almost more than the cancel variant, just because it's more splashable.

Trait Doctoring
LSV: 0.5
TO: 0.5
TS sealed: 0.0
TO sealed: 0.0

Yep.


DIMIR

Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Pretty obvious bomb; kills in 2-3 attacks.

Far//Away
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0 (4.0 if access to both colours)
TS draft: 3.0 (3.5 if access to both colours).

Good removal, potential card advantage, this seems quite good.  While it's "only" a 3.5 from LSV, it is also his pick of the best common/uncommon for Dimir.

Warped Physique
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
Ts sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Also very good removal.  I'm not sure I'm going to like the way you have to play if you have it (if it's anywhere in your deck, it's worth holding lands in your hand).  For that reason, if given a choice between two very similar power cards, I might lean away from this, but there's no question the value of this card is very high, and possibly a little moreso because of the low amount of removal available.

Haunter of Nightveil
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I've also heard this card spoken of very highly in podcasts, saying that giving enemy creatures a -1 stat is actually a much bigger deal than giving your own creatures +1/+1.

Woodlot Crawler
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

2 power probably unblockable for 2, with protection from one colour hosing about 40% of gold cards (and 20% of monocoloured cards, of course).  That said, it loses some of the power it might have had because Dimir gets lots of value from evasion through the cipher mechanic...and the two cipher cards in this set are absolutely awful.

Plifered Plans
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Total agreement, just a solid card.  If I'm really expecting the format to be all about bombs, I might even want to take it a little higher than these would suggest.

Notion thief
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

It's a surprise blocker that usually acts more like a removal spell; that's enough.  (On rare occasions it could draw you cards, or make a card draw spell into a dead card in hand for your opponent).

Breaking//Entering
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

It gets a bomb from either graveyard.  6 mana is a lot, but haste helps.

Reap Intellect
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 0.5

Expensive discard, in limited...yeah.



IZZET

Ral Zarek
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 5.0
TS draft: 5.0

I'm curious what LSV will say, but 5.0 feels like a stretch.  If you cast this while you're in trouble, it's probably a sorcery speed lightning bolt, maybe two sorcery speed lightning bolts.  If you're ahead already, then sure, the +1 ramps you while you get to ultimate.  You can always bolt their face for reach.  I mean, still a bomb, still removal in a format starving for it, still a planeswalker in limited, but 5.0 feels a bit generous.

EDIT: and LSV posts his impression: "It's the rare planeswalker that is not awesome in limited".  So...there we go.  (Still a 4.0, granted).

Dragonshift
LSV: 4.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

LSV makes the good point that this is a pump spell in the earlygame.  I'm not sure how I feel about this one on its bomb end--it's not just that it costs 7 mana, but it also costs RRUU.  In a 3-4 colour deck that sounds like it might be frustrating.  I dunno, it's still definitely a bomb with earlygame applications.

Turn//Burn
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0 (2.5 if only blue)
TS draft: 4.0 (2.5 if only blue)

I feel like LSV is underrating this card a bit; unconditional removal, can 2-for-1.  Granted, this was his pick for best of the izzet commons/uncommons.

Blast of Genius
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

TS makes a very interesting point, that apparently Thoughtflare was a first pick in RTR limited.  Additionally, this is some of the only removal and digging for bombs and mana fixing.  This should be valued pretty high.

Melek, Izzet Paragon
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 2.5

They pretty much all note that you need to get him early and draft around spells, but if you do it has a decent payoff.  As noted, drafting around spells is something that can sort-of be done due to the instant and sorcery count being fairly high.  I dunno, while you can build around it, the payoff is not exactly a massive bomb.

Nivix Cyclops
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 3.0

The ability to cast any instant and eat an attacker is indeed pretty neat.  TS feels that this is another card that requires a lot of spells (thus making it not as good in sealed where you can't get your spell count up).

Fluxcharger
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 3.0

it's a 1/5 flying for 4; that's already fairly solid.  And sometimes it swings for quite a bit.

Catch//Release
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0 (2.5 if you can cast both halves)
TS draft: 2.0 (2.5 if you can cast both halves)

The general consensus is that a threaten is not that great.  It should be noted that this is a good sideboard card against planeswalkers (all one in the set), but that's about it.

Goblin Test Pilot
LSV: 1.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone notes that this could potentially do something in limited if it's the right matchup with the right kind of deck on your side.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 06, 2013, 07:41:50 AM
BLACK:

Pontiff of Blight
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Pretty clearly a bomb.  Things that keep it from being completely insane: you're probably not playing just black/white.  The mana curve is probably a little higher (following this up with a gatekeeper only lets you extort for 2).

Blood Scrivener
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I'm not super that thrilled by bears in this format (although 2/1s aren't really significantly worse than bears; not that much removal hits 1 toughness, and it's not like 1 power is even all that common either).  I am pretty thrilled about drawing cards.  I'm not sure how often emptying hands is going to happen, especially when some of the better commons and uncommons are 6-7 drops.  If I do find myself drafting a deck with a lower curve and not too many colours, though, suddenly this looks very good.

Rakdos Drake
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

The interaction between this and Wind Drake is pretty cute.  Wind Drake could block this, but dies if it does.  This can't block wind drake.  But this dies to less removal.  Also, it gets a counter, which matters for all of the "cares about +1/+1 counters" cards.  It's not clear to me at all which one is better.

Ubul Sar Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0 (2.0 without at least three gates)
TS draft: 3.0

There's almost total agreement about this being the best gatekeeper.  Which...with 3 and 4 toughness being more common than 2 toughness in the set, I'm not sure I actually agree with that.  But the only one I can really offer up as possibly better is the blue one (card draw being valuable in a bomb-focused format).

Maze Abomination
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

In a removal light format, this seems good if for nothing else but for bomb management.  TS does make a good point, though, that with so many 6 drops, there is a reasonable chance this comes all the way back around.

Fatal Fumes:
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

LSV played with a few of these in the prerelease, and was unimpressed with them.  That said, I'm comparing this to Protect//Serve which he gives 3.0, and the comparison to Protect seems pretty obvious.  Playing this as a combat trick is pretty much identical to playing protect as a combat trick, but you can also just play this as straight up removal, which you can't with protect.  Granted, Protect costs 3, this costs 4, and protect has a second mode where it could 2-for-1.  Still, though, far be it for me to contradict LSV, but I think I might take this over Protect//Serve?

Hired Torturer
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
Ts sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 1.5

Unblockable damage!  But...that's a lot of mana to pay for it.

Bane Alley Backguard
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone seems to agree he's playable, but just a 23rd pick or so.

Crypt Incursion
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.5
TS Sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 0.5

It's a sideboard card!  If they happen to be playing heavy phytoburst, bring in the lifegainz!

Sinister Posession
LSV: 0.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

I'm trying to defend this card as better than LSV's 0.0, but it's pretty hard.  The 1.5 sites make claims about how this is a bit more of a burn card that gets opponents into checkmate situations where they're damned if they block and damned if they don't.  But...I mean, a black mana sorcery to deal 2 damage to target player is...bad.  Wait, I'm sorry, loses 2 life, which means you can't hurt a planes walker with that damage.


RAKDOS

Excava, Rakdos Blood Witch
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

With most of the set being 4 toughness or less, a 4/4 first strike is actually a rather big deal.

Master of Cruelties
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

This is not exactly unbeatable or anything.  If it attacks, just gang block it with three 2/2s or something.  (it can only attack alone, after all, and deathtouch with 1 power only allows it to kill one creature).  Kinda hard to attack into this thing without evasion, on the other hand.

Sire of Insanity:
LSV: 4.0
TO: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0

Yeah, if neither player has cards, probably the one with the 6/4 already in play has an advantage.  Can definitely straight up win some games where you get a faster start.

Carnage Gladiator
LSV: 3.0 (3.5 if you are very aggressive)
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm not really sure what to think about this card.  I don't really want to play it--lots of dedicated mana, and if I really want to keep it alive I'll be horrendously killing my tempo.  And if things go sour and I'm on the defensive, this makes it harder to defend.  At the same time, I really don't want to play against this card.  Like...I'm searching for things that shut it down, and while there's tons of 4 toughness in the set, 5+ toughness is fairly rare (and usually accompanied by 0 or 1 power).  A 4 power regenerating creature actually seems like an unbelievable pain to deal with given the tools in the format.  This makes me think maybe the card is really good, and I should be playing it....

Morgue Burst:
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

This is a fine card and all--removal which will probably be low.  Potentially brings back a bomb.  Potentially kills a bomb.  I think 4.0 is a bit nutty; I wouldn't take this over a blatant bomb.

Spike Jester
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Obviously the card quality here is very, very good.  It's just a question of whether the format supports it or not (or if it's something I want to push towards in draft choices.

Toil//Trouble
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0 (2.5 if only black, 1.0 if only red)
TS draft: 2.5 (1.0 if only red)

A bad 3 mana draw 2 is still good, seems to be the consensus.  And...yeah, given how highly I'm valuing card draw in this format, I'm inclined to agree.

Showstopper:
LSV: 2.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

This is a 3 mana shock with morbid, that's sometimes rarely a blowout.  Not unplayable, just not great.



GOLGARI

Varolz, the Scar-Striped
LSV: 4.0
TO: 3.5
TS draft: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5

Scavenge keyes off of power--so in the high toughness set it's not as sexy as it could be.  That said, 4/6s are very annoying for 2/4s to deal with.  Giving yourself a 6/6ish flier is also scary, and pretty easily doable.  And he regenerates if they do have removal.  Yeah, I find it hard to see this as anything but a bomb.

Deadbridge Chant
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

So...draw a card every turn (unless you reanimate).  Fill your graveyard, which might matter as a lot of cards in this set seem to grab from the graveyard (I blame split cards).  Seems about as good as it gets without being a straight up bomb.

Flesh//Blood
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0 (3.5 for just flesh, 2.5 for just blood)
TS draft: 4.0 (3.5 /2.5)

Blood's a removal spell.  A good removal spell.  Flesh is a mediocre pump spell that can nevertheless work well with blood.  I think the 4.0 ratings are a little overboard, however.  This would be very good in an aggro format, but if I have a bunch of 2/4s, and my opponent has a bomb, this won't kill it.  It's really good if both me and my opponent have like...3/3s and 2/2s, and this kills one of their 2/2s, but that's not quite what I expect this format to look like.

Putrefy
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

LSV puts this a bit lower than others, who put this on the level of "OMFG bomb".  The thing is, between a complete bomb and a very good removal spell, If you have the complete bomb and your opponent has the really good removal spell, your opponent needs to have the removal spell at the same time as you have the complete bomb.

Korozda Gorgon
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 4.0

This card isn't going to get much support in the area of +1/+1 counters; there just isn't much of that in the set, so these evaluations probably trend a little high.  I'm still pretty interested in a 2/5 deathtouch that has the potential to ping some creatures.

Down//Dirty
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

Card advantage tends to look pretty solid to me.  In a format where people are going to be colour screwed, making them discard the two bombs in their hand they splashed for sounds decent too.

Gaze of Granite
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

LSV had some at prerelease; wasn't blown away by them.  Said he needed to spend about 7 mana to get what he wanted (sounds right with a lot of creatures costing 4 in this set).  Certainly worth playing when in-colour at any rate.

Drown in Filth
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

The general consensus is that this card depends on support.  Other cards that mill you make this quite a bit better.

Rot Farm Sekelton
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
Ts draft: 3.0

I think I do put a decent value on 4 power threats that can kill a 2/4 and keep going, so I'd maybe rate this a bit higher than LSV.  Though...there are some decent arguments that this isn't what you should be wasting mana (and deck space) on.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Yoshiken on May 06, 2013, 12:24:02 PM
Having played a 6xDGM sealed and a 3xDGM draft yesterday, I can say that Maze Sentinel is almost certainly the best of the Maze ___ cards in my opinion. 3/6 is just monstrous to get through, and the flier just doesn't feel as relevant in this set when there are so many people relying on things like Trostani's Summoner to get damage through. Being able to attack with a 3/6 and having a blocker back is way too nice.

Also, I am looking forward to seeing Green here since I absolutely agree on this format being reaaally slow and Green has the only bear that is actually good, imo.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 06, 2013, 04:32:48 PM
Maze Sentinel? o_O.  My usual barometer is "what does this do against an opponent with 2/4s".  Well...if they have one 2/4 they just block all day.  If they have three 2/4s they can gang block and kill it.  Although sure, I guess none of that is relevant if they're trying to alpha strike through you every turn.  Interesting.

Still, though, better than the black one?  5 toughness is about equally as hard to kill as 6 toughness, but deathtouch makes attacking into you a lot scarier.  (Granted, no vigilance means you can't hit back freely if they do; hmm).


And yeah, the more I think about it, bears still seem cool, because if the opponent is really struggling having nothing but 4 drops in a 3 land hand or something, bears can get in a lot of damage.  Of the common monocoloured ones...white is basically vanilla.  Red is godawful (2/1 attacks each turn if able.  But hey, first strike!  An ability that matters more on blocking...lol).  Green actually scales to the lategame.  The multicolour ones seem solid too, both have lategame applications (flash bounce a creature, and extort), just good luck getting the mana on turn 2.  (But still, if you do, opponent stumbling + you dropping tithe drinker could very easily see a situation where you attack 3-4 times for free, which means a 12-16 point life swing...on something that's going to extort for the rest of the game o_O).  So...of the multicolour ones, the potential payoff makes me excited about Tithe Drinker despite the tricky mana cost.  Deputy of Acquittals.......meh--even if you have it in your opening hand you may not want to play it turn 2.

In the mean time......having just looked through Rakdos and thinking to myself "wow, there's a lot of actually decent aggressive cards here; maybe everyone else will pass them over, and I can get them all in a mostly 2 colour deck."  After a few calculations...LOL no, never going to happen.  While there are several cards that look solid, most of them are uncommon.  At common...the 2 drops available in Rakdos are both garbage for an aggressive strategy (the 2/1 because it's an awful card, the 1/3 because it's not an aggressive card).  At common...there's only one even slightly aggressive 3 drop (Rakdos Drake).  Once we get to 4 mana, things open up a little, with a hill giant!  and two 2/4s, and a 4 mana shock....  5 mana has...a 5 mana bolt.  Like...even if I get a bunch of excellent early picks in Rakdos, like Excava first pick into Carnage Gladiator second pick...it's not like I can fill the rest of the deck with sub-optimal fodder.  Both of those cards are 4 mana, and the common fodder in those colours is also 4 mana.

If there's a chance to draft something moderately aggressive, it probably involves green.  Good bear.  The more I think about it, reasonably good 3 drop evolve creature (it'll almost certainly be 3/2 on its first attack, and will usually grow to 5/4).  Good 4 drop (spider hill giant).  Beetleform Mage as one of its common multicolour cards.  Also, a 2-mana manadork that pings the opponent as another one of its multicolour commons.  Some solid goodies at uncommon (the give half of give//take; in multicolour...Putrefy, armadillo cloak, bronzebeak moa, Armed//dangerous for alpha strikes, Gruul War Chant, Krasis Incubation, and a 6/6 for 5).

This still doesn't sound amazing, though--3 good commons for aggressive, +2 multicolour commons, +1 if you're including phytoburst.  That's one per pack on average.  Of the two colours with an aggressive multicolour common with green...red has a good combat trick at 2, and a hill giant/giant growth split card, a 5 mana bolt that burns them to the face while killing a creature, and that's about it.  Blue has 2 mana removal, wind drake, and that's about it.  Actually, I might be unfairly excluding white, which does have a gold card with green at common (5 mana for a 4/6; it's...less inspiring than the other two, but those stats actually sound reasonably geared for the format).  White has...a bear, a 3 drop that taps a blocker, a 5 mana 3/1 first strike flyer.  So...yeah, any 2 colour combination only really brings us up to 8-9 commons (1.5 per pack; hope that nobody else is in those colours).  Granted, it's not like the green mythics/rares really push for an aggressive strategy the way the rakdos ones do, so I'm not sure why I'd be trying to force an aggressive deck when in green.  (I'll still take those three commons, granted; they're good regardless).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 07, 2013, 05:14:18 PM
RED

Pyrewild Shaman
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

card advantage is card advantage.

Punish the Enemy
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I think 4 is very generous, and predicated on drafting an aggressive deck (probably not happening).  This isn't a card that takes over the game, and at 3 damage it won't shut down a bomb too often.  This is limited common removal that takes out limited common creatures.

Rubblebelt Maaka
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Choice between two very solid limited effects.

Smelt-Ward Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 1.5

The problem is the ability is very aggressive, but gates are not, and 2/4s for 4 are not.

Weapon Surge
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

This is the cheapest they've ever had a mass first strike card, which could mean it's pretty good, or not.

Maze Rusher
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Almost universally seen as the worst of the cycle, because granting haste to your multicolour creatures that are already in play is not exciting at all.

Awe of the Guilds
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

Yeah.

Riot Piker
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

Attacks each turn if able seems phenomenally bad in the format.

Clear a path
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

General agreement that this is a reasonable sideboard card.  But...I dunno, I just don't think any of the walls in DGM are all that scary.

Possibility Storm
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 0.0
TS draft: 0.0



Man, red has a lot of pretty bad cards.



BOROS:

Tajic, Blade of the Legion
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 4.0

Indestructible 7/7s for 4 are pretty hard to deal with.  Although I will note that the black common removal hits this (both the 4 mana shock, and the gatekeeper)

Warleader's Helix
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

I think 4.5 is a bit aggressive here.  It's not a bomb that takes over the game.  It doesn't kill most of the bombs that take over the game (most of which have multiple targets, or 5 toughness, or pro white, or regenerate, or indestructible...).  But yes, obviously very good limited removal.

Boros Battleshaper
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

Clearly fantastic card; I think the reason it's not rated higher by LSV and TO is mostly because of the 7 mana cost.

Legion's Initiative
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

This has a lot of ways it can be used (pump, defence from removal, untap attackers, give people haste, fog your opponent).  I'm actually a little more lukewarm on this card in triple DGM.  More toughness on the white creatures isn't getting me too excited when they've mostly got that covered.  And the list of red creatures I want to play at common is pretty short.  (Gatekeeper, hill giant/giant growth).  I'm down with protecting my creatures, but there's a green 1 mana instant with "regenerate target creature" that gets like...1.5 ratings from most of these reviewers.  I mean, it's ok, but I think I'd take good removal over it, and would not splash for it if I was mostly in other colours.

Viashino Firstblade
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 3.0

3 mana creatures with haste turn on battalion, that's what everyone is saying.  Except they don't in this set.  There's no 1 drop in the entire set, and damn near no battalion to turn on (whee...get lifelink on my 2/2).

Blaze Commando
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

How many spells actually deal damage?  Punish the enemy at common, one of the split cards at uncommon, that's all I can think of.

Gleam of Battle
LSV: 1.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

The consensus is that six is a lot, and if you're in a bad board state, this doesn't help you at all.

Wear//Tear
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

I expect cluestones to be fairly common, with everyone getting 6 on average in their cardpool, but those are literally the only artifacts in the set, and stone rain isn't that exciting.



GRUUL

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
LSV: 4.0
TO: 5.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

It's a bomb.

Savageborn Hydra
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.5

It's also a bomb

Armed//Dangerous
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

It's an overrun effect that costs six.

Gruul War Chant
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.5

They all note that you need to build an aggressive deck around it, and it's almost a blank card if you fall behind.

Scab-clan Giant
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm going to note that I think 4/5 is a really really nice set of stats to have in the format.  A lot of the format is 2/4s, which can't gang block and kill this, and can't safely block this.  A bunch more of the format is 4/4s, which get eaten by this.  And it's ETB card advantage too?  I might bump this closer to 3.5 range, but...it does cost six mana, so that's probably not reasonable.  4.0, however, is a bit silly.

Zhur-Taa Ancient
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

It's risky, since your opponent gets the mana first, which is why everyone is lukewarm on this card.  That said, you both get mana, but you get a 7/5.

Zhur-Taa Druid
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.5

Tricky mana cost asside, this seems really good, and I've seen other articles call it the best card in the format.  Mana ramp on 2 is something that can't be done any other way, and the ping effect is honestly probably better than extort because you get it whether or not you have a spell, and whether or not you have mana for it.  I think I'd rather have my extort creature be a manadork than a bear in a slower format.  (So...this is probably closer to 3.5; or at least it's similar and probably slightly ahead in power to Tithe Drinker).

Feral Animist
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0 (2.5 with 3-4 pump effects)
TS draft: 2.5

The one player who played with him last ravnica (LSV) notes how rarely he really gets to do work.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2013, 07:17:35 AM
GREEN

Skylasher
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

In a format with no real 1 drops, and minimal 2 drops worth playing, this actually seems reasonably valuable.  It's a bear with three highly relevant abilites for limited.  2-for-1's wind drake for less mana.  Hell, 2-for-1's ascended lawmage for less mana.  A decent amount of removal is blue, which it dodges.

Renegade Krasis
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 4.0

I'm not sure I'd put this significantly above Battering Krasis for triple DGM.  It's a lord for something that...practically doesn't exist in the set, which means it's mostly just a 3/2 evolve for 1GG.  I'm not sure if that's really too much better than a 2/1 evolve for 2G.  They both grow to about the same size (5/4), but one is much harder to cast on curve, and really wants to be cast on curve (this in a set where mana is already going to be stretched thin).  So...3.0 is probably about where I should put this.

Thrashing Mossdog
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.5

All around pretty solid hill giant spider.

Saruli Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

These seem pretty good against an aggressive opponent.  Like...if someone does make a deck with Phytoburst, this pretty much undoes that entire card.  If it's slow control against slow 5 colour deck against slow 5 colour deck, though...nah.

Battering Krasis
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Usually a 3/2 attacking the turn after you play it, in general easy to grow to 5/4, and in particular 4/3 is a good set of stats in a land of 2/4s.

Kraul Warrior
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

best common monocoloured 2-drop in the format.  (Which is to say, best 2 drop you actually have a good probability of actually playing on turn 2).  5/5 is pretty relevant too; once you have the six mana, very little in the set can safely block 5/5, or kill a 5/5 on block.

Maze Behemoth
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Yeah, this is pretty underwhleming.

Mending Touch
LSV: 1.5
TO: 0.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

General consensus is playable, but get yourself a real combat trick instead.

Mutant's Prey
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.0 (2.0 with 4-5 good evolvers, 2.5 if more than that)
TS draft: 2.5

4-5 good evolvers isn't happening.  Assuming a 6 person draft, there's 180 commons across all the packs, which means an average of 3 evolvers total in the entire cardpool.  Even getting all three doesn't bring you to the 4-5 threshold.

Phytoburst
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

LSV notes that this could theoretically be good in a very, very, very aggressive deck, he just has trouble imagining the kind of setup needed for such a deck.  Gonna be harder in triple DGM.



SIMIC

Progenitor Mimic
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.5

Huge bomb.

Krasis Incubation
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Some of the best removal in the set.

Vorel of the Hull Clade
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I think this is going to be closer to 3.0 or maybe 2.5 in triple DGM, due to the low number of counters.  It's still a 1/4 for 3, but that's not really especially valuable.

Beetleform Mage
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

This just seems scary to me.  No other flyer at common is above 3 in either power or toughness except for the 6 mana Maze Glider.  Even as a blocker, it eats 2/4s.  I'm a little dubious about the 3.0 LSV gives this.

Give//Take
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

LSV notes that he wants to give this a higher rating just because of how much he likes card draw, but doesn't want to take any flak in the comments.  That said, even just the Give half seems pretty hard to deal with.  You can turn a 2/4 into a 5/7; that's immune to almost all removal (including turn//burn because it keeps the +1/+1 counters) and good in just about any creature combat.  Putting this at 3.5 seems justifyable.

Species Gorger
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

This has potential but it's deck dependent

Plasm Capture
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm not thrilled by this mostly because the mana cost is pretty prohibitive.

Bred for the Hunt
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 3.0

There seems to be some debate over whether this has value when support exists for it.  Support does not exist for it in triple DGM so...whatever.


SELESNYA

Advent of the Wurm
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Some of these ratings are overvaluing the card because of populate (which is effectively nonexistant in triple DGM--the common populate card is terrible).  However, still 2-for-1s most of the time, into a very hard to handle body.

Trostani's Summoner
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

In a strange turn of events, LSV is rating the high mana card much higher than the other two.  I'm definitely a huge sucker for this card.  I'm a long time fan of Deranged Hermit and Myr Battlesphere, and this reminds me of the above.  I kinda want to cosplay as Trostani's Summoner if I can get organized before comicon this year.  Also, I've been in draft environments with Deranged Hermit (cubes) and other limited formats with Myr Battlesphere (SoM sealed) and they tend to be completely game-ending.  I don't know if I'd bump this up to 4.0, but I wouldn't put this below 3.5, even with the 7 CMC.

Unflinching Courage
LSV: 3.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Common removal spells that are instants are 4-5 mana, and only kill stuff with 2-3 toughness.  The risk of getting 2-for-1'd is actually very low if you play this on anything bigger than a bear.  And if you don't get 2-for-1'd, this tends to be a game-ender.  (Due to the low amount of removal, this might even be a little underrated at 3.5)

Voice of Resurgence
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Total consensus!  It won't be taking over any limited games, but it's quite a bit of value relative to a 2 mana cost.

Bronzebeak Moa
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

LSV played against them, which is probably why he rates them a bit higher than others.

Alive//Well
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Yeah, hill giant with a one mana kicker that can get you a bunch of life.

Armored Wolf-Rider
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

I actually feel like this card is being a bit underrated.  4/6 is actually a pretty relevant P/T against the field.

Emmara Tandris
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5 (or 2.5 with few tokens)
TS draft: 2.5

remember, token support is quite rare, so this will usually be vanilla.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2013, 07:38:35 AM
Mana fixing...

I've seen people talking about 1st to 2nd picking gates.  These set reviews don't even rate the gates for the most part, the only one that does is...

TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0


And as for cluestones

Cluestones
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

LSV does say that guildgates are much better.


Right now I'm certainly thinking that bombs and bomb-removal should absolutely be taken above gates.  But sure, evaluating on-colour gates in low 3.5 range (by LSV's ratings) sounds pretty reasonable.


Cluestones...yeah, the thing is triple DGM seems like it's going to be pretty flooded with these, with an average of 5 per player.  I can't imagine someone just hoarding these, picking more up when they already have 5 in their card pool.  So...2.0 sounds pretty reasonable.  I'd be a little more excited about the card draw half of these to dig for bombs and removal, except that you can't splash for the cycling effect; you actually need to have alternative mana sources for both colours.  So...using a cluestone to splash a colour means you can't cycle the cluestone as nothing else makes the splashed colour's mana.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2013, 05:08:26 PM
So...ran a draft simulator, which I think had other people picking asynchronously...:

Ended up with a lot more lands than I was expecting.

Had more trouble getting creatures than I was expecting.  Like...around 4th or 5th pick, if you're trying to stay in colour there might just be nothing.

Had like...four Beetleform Mages o_O

Got to a point where I was like "OK, I think I can play 3 colours, with a splash of white for one bomb, and I can splash with gates."  Did a count of the cards I had in the deck and was like..."whoops, no, I have like...18 non-lands in this deck; I need to play alllll of my white cards."  Like...I think 18-19 mana sources is fine in a slow bomby multicolour format, which is about what I had after I brought in white (well...more like 20-21 because I had two Zhur-Ta Druids, but those are also unblockable threats).  But that still required four colours.  A three colour deck would likely involve careful planning, drafting fewer gates.  And you'd probably have some bombs you hate drafted and can't play.

Let's see...4 colours with gates/cluestones means about 5 mana sources per colour.  3 colours without gates means about 6 mana sources per colour.  Also better tempo, or cluestones could bring it up to about 7 sources per colour.  But gatekeepers will also be worse.  Hmm...not thrilled by the 3 colour option so far....  Maybe I should do some more practice runs, though, and see if that was an anomaly.

Getting pulled into red/blue seems like it's something that can happen fairly easily due to both Turn//Burn and Blast of Genius being some of the few cards that kill bombs.


EDIT: ran another draft simulator where I started out taking dimir and orzhov.  Got a putrefy and a beetleform mage or two and switched to green/blue/black.  Managed to have 21 cards reasonably comfortably; could go up to 23 with the three copies of Down//Dirty in the deck....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 09, 2013, 04:00:43 AM
Something I noticed about the decks I drafted in draft simulator: they tended to be really heavy on multicoloured rather than monocoloured cards.  I mean like...5 monocoloured, 16 multicoloured kind of split.  How much of a problem is this...?

If you're in 2 colours, trying to play a bear, and have two random lands:

1G casting cost: 75% chance you can play it.
RG casting cost: 50% chance you can play it.
GG casting cost: 25% chance you can play it.

In two colours, it's a little harder than casting a monocoloured card, but not too bad.

If you're in 3 colours, trying to play a bear, and have two random lands (assuming no duals):

1G casting cost: 55.5% chance you can play it
RG casting cost: 22.2% chance you can play it
GG casting cost: 11.1% chance you can play it

With three random lands (assuming no duals):

1G casting cost: 70% chance you can play it
RG casting cost: 44% chance you can play it
GG casting cost: 26% chance you can play it

All this assumes infinite lands of each type in your deck (so drawing a mountain doesn't make it less likely to draw another mountain; which is not a safe assumption at all--with that factored in, getting two different colours is marginally easier).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 09, 2013, 11:24:48 AM
Ok, this is just a gut feeling from doing a bunch of draft simulations, but...

I can almost always force a 3 colour deck, usually with a fair number of gates (though I don't know how intelligent the draft simulator is about early picking gates).  This might splash a fourth colour for a bomb or removal spell, but no biggie.

I feel like I get drawn into blue a lot; there's just a lot of multicolour cards where I'm in one of the colours already and the other colour is blue.  If I'm looking to take a third colour (with my first two determined by bombs or whatever) green is almost never a bad decision.  Red generally leaves me feeling extremely short on picks.  Monoblack and monowhite similarly seem prone to drying up, but they have some good guilds (selesnya, dimir, and orzhov seem to pretty consistently deliver a lot of cards--though again, might be how the draft simulator is calibrated).

Let's see if there's any sense in this...

Blue commons:
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5 (but I'm usually happy to pick up a Maze Glider)
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5

Four cards I want, four cards I don't, for the most part.

White commons:
3.5 (oh, forgot LSV rated Haazda Snare Squad so highly; I've been picking it a fair bit lower)
3.0
3.0 (It's the bad bear; I've been treating this closer to 2.5)
2.5
1.5
1.5 (but I've been picking and including Maze Sentinel periodically on Yoshi's advice)
1.5
1.0

Two cards I want, six I don't (but I'll still play three of those) for the most part

Black commons:
3.0
3.0
2.5 (but I'm often happy to take a maze abomination, I've just found that I need to be careful not to draft like...two or three, as they have severely diminishing returns)
2.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.0

Two cards I want.  Two more I'm happy to have one of but don't really want in multiples.  Four I don't want.

Red:
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5

Four cards I want, but they seem to dry up really fast.  I think maybe the limited applications of the bolt and the hill giant/giant growth and the mass first strike are just obvious.  Gatekeepers I tend to be able to pick up.

Green
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0

Four cards I want.  (And I'll groan and take the maze behemoth if it's the only in-colour card in the pack)

Guilds...

Azorious:
Commons:
3.0
Uncommons:
3.5
3.5
3.0
(the rest don't matter)

Orzhov
Commons:
3.5 (I tend to draft this closer to a high 3.0; still a 2-colour 2 drop)
Uncommons:
3.5 (although, depends how many creatures you have, I feel)
3.0
3.0 (not entirely sure how I feel Sin Collector yet, though; I probably draft it closer to 2.5)

Dimir
Commons
3.0 (and I seem to pick these up late)
Uncommons
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

Yuuup.  Sometimes I just get fed a pile of really good dimir uncommons.  It's not like there's any real disagreement either--premium removal, premium removal, -1/-0 to their team on a decently efficient body in a set where token swarms or fliers seem like the route to victory.  People are a bit divided on Woodlot Crawler, but as long as you're heavily in the colours I'm kind of on the side of LSV--it's a probably unblockable 2 power 2-drop that could stop various green bombs, and shuts down the best common bear.

Izzet
Commons:
3.0 (but takes some draft support)
Uncommons:
3.5
3.5
3.0

Yeah, I haven't been unhappy with Izzet.  I guess it's the other red guilds that I've felt a little underwhelmed by?

Rakdos
Commons
3.0 (hm, I guess I've been rating this lower than I should; comparing it to blast of genius, which is so much better.  Still kills almost anything and is card advantage)
Uncommons:
3.0 (3.5 if very aggressive)
3.0 (but trashy in non-aggressive decks)
3.0 (but I'd play it monoblack)
2.5

Yeah, like Rakdos.  Rakdos is pretty underwhelming.

Golgari
Commons
2.5
Uncommons
3.5 (mmm...Putrefy.  This disappears fast, though)
3.5 (but I've been rating it closer to 3.0 due to the lack of +1/+1 counters; so...2/5 deathtouch)
3.0 (but everyone besides LSV has it at 2.5 to 2.0.  Card advantage, though).
2.5

Golgari's weird, because it actually has mechanical interactions to think about.  Rot Farm Skeleton is underwhelming, Drown in Filth is underwhelming.  Down//Dirty is something a lot of people who are less card advantage obsessed than LSV seem to dislike.  And yet if you have all of these in multiples, plus maybe one of the rares that cares about the graveyard, then really cool stuff happens.  You fill your graveyard, and Drown in Filth starts getting good.  And then Dirty starts becoming a bit of a tutor.

If it takes a while to find your third colour, it's hard to put these interactions together.

Boros:
Common:
2.5
Uncommon:
3.5
2.0

Oh, hey, there we go; red guilds that underdeliver.  Knew they were out there.

Gruul
Common:
3.0 (though I'd rate it as highly as 3.5 if in the colours)
Uncommon:
3.5
3.0 (requires aggressive build)
3.0

Yeah, I guess I don't have anything against gruul.  So...with Rakdos and Gruul being so-so, red/green/black seems kinda sketchy (though I did put it together once), and Boros is garbage, and white hurts a little for commons, so red/green/white is kinda mediocre too, I guess that means red/blue/green could be a pretty good combo.  They all have good monocolour commons too.

Simic:
Common:
3.0 (though it leans towards 3.5)
Uncommon:
3.5
3.0
2.5 (but in the right deck it's amazing; always try to grab one if I'm gatekeeer heavy or have Trostani's Summoner)

Yeah, I often feel drawn into Simic any time I see a beetleform mage around 6th pick, which seems to be weirdly often at least on the simulator.

Selesnya:
Common:
2.5 (but I've said it before, 4/6 is just nice stats in this format; it might be secretly 3.0 level.  And the fact that it seems to come around late pick pretty often tends to give me a lot of frebie late picks).
Uncommon
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.0

Selesnya's uncommons are pretty shiny.  It's not quite Dimir level where I've taken five straight Dimir picks pack 1, but on the other hand I am a Trostani's Summoner fangirl, so that often pulls me into Selesnya.



So...ok, this explains a fair bit.

Three colour combinations need to avoid Boros.  Additionally, there's good Rakdos stuff, but it's aggressively oriented which can be tricy, and Golgari requires setup, and tends to go for a longer game.  This means sensible chase 3-colour combinations are...

Red/Blue/Green
White/Blue/Green
Black/Blue/Green
White/Blue/Black
White/Green/Black

And then there's some maybes...

Red/Black/Green -- Golgari and Rakdos kinda clash; good cards, don't support each other.  Gruul, Rakdos, and green/red/black commons can all play pretty aggressive, though, so I'd say this one probably works fine.  It does mean playing aggressive, though, which among other things means not playing 19 mana sources, and not playing the green gatekeeper, so that makes space tighter.

Red/Black/Blue -- Izzet's weird; one of their best spells is a 6 mana draw/removal spell.  This doesn't mesh all that well with a 3/1 haste for 2 mana, and a 4/2 blocking creatures hurt their controller for 4 mana.  One of Dimir's best spells involves having lots of cards in hand, which again is a bit antisynergistic.  If we ignore Rakdos and just play Dimir+Izzet, those two are actually pretty synergistic.  Both spell heavy, which triggers the Izzet stuff.  I feel like this colour combination ends up super light on creatures, though...let's see...one gatekeeper per colour, drake, drake, hill giant.  Nivvix Cyclops.  6 CMC maze cycle.  That's about all you'd want to play at common--7 good cards, 3 maze elementals which you don't want more than a couple of (the red one is awful anyway).  So...a lot of the times 1 common creature per pack among cards you'd really want.  And only one multicolour creature (multicolour common creatures often go late, which makes it easier to grab late picks).



So...anyway, with black and white being the shortest on commons, it's easy to say "avoid Boros", having the worst guild cards, and I'd kneejerk avoid Rakdos because it's the wrong set for aggressive, and it only has two sensible colour pairings, neither of which provide terribly cooperative guilds.

So the next question...should Orzhov be avoided?  Orzhov itself has good cards, but not the greatest (unlike the uncommon guild cards in Simic/Dimir).  But white and black dry up fast, and going Orzhov puts you in both.  I've pushed myself into Orzhov frequently and definitely remember a few of those getting very rough late in the pack.  Hm, well that explains a lot.


Ok, well...I guess this narrows me down to 3 options in terms of colours, all of which involve both green and blue.  For major bombs outside of that, splash a fourth colour.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 11, 2013, 10:21:45 AM
Played a winchester draft tonight.  Which basically means both of us got three packs, and were able to select a little bit for colour but not really.  He played a four colour deck, I played five colour.

Went 2-2.  Both of my losses were to Debt to the Deathless:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369039

(Although one of my losses I was just mana screwed, and my opponent actually had a decent number of early plays, so while I might have stabilized without Debt to the Deathless, it wasn't looking good).

Haunter of Nightveil was an all-star for me.  Maze abomination was really hard to play against.  In general, the maze elementals were good just for their french vanilla stats.  I found Maze Rusher kinda scary.  It was kinda like sealed with half the packs, so much slower than normal, which basically meant that anything that costs 6 was good.

My bomb rares were...

Pontiff of Blight
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369006
(Good despite playing 5 colour.  Should definitely be able to extort enough in a 3 colour deck, but hard to splash black just for it, due to the double cc).
Scion of Vitu Gazi
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369092
(did a fair bit of work for me because there was a pontiff of blight in play giving the tokens extort, and there was a milling flying vampire I needed to chump block).
Ready//Willing
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368967
(Requires double white to play both halves, which is something I hadn't thought about before with the gold split cards.  This is not that splashable, and pretty much failed me due to colour screw).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 11, 2013, 04:58:24 PM
Let's see, what else.

Beetleform mage was good.  Often stopped by 1/5 flying blockers with deathtouch, but I think that's pretty specific to the deck I was playing against (which happened to have two of those uncommons, and be in precisely red/blue/white/black to get those + maze abomination).  The other cards I had were not as good at causing a ground stall as I expected, though, so getting attacked on the ground by 6CMC maze elementals happened a fair bit.  I think if I'd had maze abomination it would have helped there.

Punish the Enemy...did some work killing specifically Tithe Drinker.  (and against me it would kill beetleform mage while I was tapped and Carnage Gladiator while I was tapped).  But a lot of the time I was just looking to cast it post combat to kill a big creature I was struggling with, and a combat trick would have been just as good.

Incidentally, protect//serve was solid.  I wish it gave a little more than 2 power, because sometimes that's needed to kill something.  But I usually found myself casting both halves and doing relevant stuff with each half.

Renounce the Guilds seemed pretty good; I was usually able to get a key target out of it.

Large vanilla or close to vanilla stuff seems pretty hard to deal with (outside of deathtouch).  I think if I'm in the colours I should value Armored Wolf Rider decently highly; like 3.0 range.

Gatekeepers...I only had the green one, and it was...ok, not great.  Gained me 7 life one time, and didn't on another occasion but I needed a blocker for Tithe Drinker asap.  I think it would have felt better without Maze Abomination on the field, making it a bad blocker.

Ok, for reals, how much Maze Abomination am I going to face; let's think about this.  It's a common, so once every 6 packs or so (1/2 the players will have it in their card pool) and my opponents have to put it in their deck if they do draft it, and then draw it without getting mana screwed out of casting it.  So......1/4 games or 1/5 games.  Not enough for me to devalue high tougness cards.  I wish I could think of more ways to deal with the card, though.  Other than the "kill anything" removal cards that should probably be reserved for bombs.  It's not the kind of format where you want to be chump blocking--there just aren't enough cards on the table.  Gang blocking a 4 power deathtouch is awful.  5 power is pretty rare (the green bear can pump that much!)  Combat tricks are options, but only Protect//Serve can make you actually win the combat (by giving it -6/-0 as well as pumping)--and even that card doesn't pump too much--if you have nothing but 2/4s you can't kill it in combat outside of a gang block.  Three of the maze elementals can trade in combat (green/red/black) but that's it among commons (except Krahul Warrior pumping to 5/5, and battering Krasis can grow that big too; goooo green commons).  Uncommons with 5 power or deathtouch are....there's three that always have them, and three more that can pump.  And obviously three cards that pretty much read "kill target creature".  Although...actually, Krasis Incubation isn't that great against Maze Abomination because the static effect of handing out deathtouch still happens.  Even among rares, a few trade (if you want to trade a bomb rare for a common), a few others have protection from it and can block forever (but don't kill).  I think I need to value Maze Abomination higher just because of how hard it is to trade 1-for-1 with it, and how rarely losing it will be a tempo loss (a lot of stuff that can trade with it costs 5+).  Worded that way it sounds kind of like a bomb....

One quick note; I've been valuing Runner's Bane pretty high, and valuing Far//Away pretty high.  These cards don't synergize.  Same for renounce the guilds, although at least there I can put Runner's Bane on a monocolour creature.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 13, 2013, 02:25:16 PM
Starjeweled:

So...to recap, there is a strategy without a real name (that I call omnistax, but there's no consensus) where you warp cell your team's first three ultras in a perfect parallel line to the cannons such that they will block the pathfinding of anything behind them, and then continue building ultras while keeping those three frozen.  This allows you to build up an effectively unlimited (maybe 15 or so) ultras, usually at the cost of your front cannons.

So...the top tier team (luke/crush) had already killed us twice, once normally, once with this, and so this next time i re-warpcelled their wall ultras about when I expected them to release the built up masses, and re-warpcelled again.  Ended up killing their back cannons, and seriously blunting their push.  (Still lost, because they had about 40% more energy, but it was funny).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 13, 2013, 04:07:32 PM
Starcraft 2:

So...as Terran, if your only goal is to mine as much minerals as possible and don't want to make any army, what should you make; orbitals?  Mules?  Supply Depots?  Supply Calldowns? SCVs?


An SCV mines about 40 minerals per minute.

Supply depots take 30s to construct, which wastes about 20 minerals of mining (realistically 25 due to travel time).  This means their total cost is 125 or so.

SCVs take one supply, which means their total cost with the cost of a supply depot is 66 minerals.  Going the supply depot route they take about 100 seconds of mining to repay themselves.  Add in 17 seconds of build time and it's 117 seconds.

Mules collect 240 to 270 minerals over 90 seconds.  Orbitals accrue energy at a rate of 0.5625/sec, which lets them call down a mule once every 88.89 seconds.  So...in total, orbitals collect about 172 minerals per minute.  (4.3x as much as an SCV).  This means that if you already have a command center, and are choosing between morphing it into an orbital, and building an SCV, morph an orbital.  Repays itself after 52 seconds of mining, which with the 35 second build time means 87 seconds.  But more to the point it's like building 4 SCVs in the time it normally takes to build 2.

If you don't yet have a barracks, and are considering building one just to make orbitals (not build any units out of it) the build time is 65 seconds (44 minerals of lost mining time, plus travel time so this rounds off to 50) and cost is 150 minerals.  Total investment 200 minerals.  With one Orbital this becomes a 350 mineral investment (takes mules about 122s to pay that off) and then add in 100s build time (222 seconds to pay off investment).  With two orbitals it's a 500 mineral investment (takes two mules about 87s to pay that off) and then add in 100s build time (187s to pay off investment).

Command centers take 100s to build, which, with the lost SCV mining means 67 lost minerals (70ish with travel time).  Total investment 470.  They also provide 11 supply, which is 1.375 supply depots, worth about 165 minerals, so actual total investment is closer to 305 minerals.  If you're only making them to morph them into orbitals for the mules, it's a 455 mineral investment (takes mules 169 seconds to return investment; 300s with build times considered).  CCs also build SCVs and let you mine from more mineral patches if placed at expansions, of course.


So...realistic RoI times tend to be about 2 minutes to 5 minutes.  Call RoI time T.  That means that if I make X in time T, and I invest everything into more income, then my total wealth at time 2T will be...2X (same as it would be if I spent nothing) but my income will be double.  Now go invest your 2x bank into more income.  In this way you can double your income every T or so.  Actually probably slightly better because you reinvest constantly with constant scv production, so instead of *2, it's probably closer to *e, where e = 2.71828.  (Honestly likely somewhere in between; maybe 2.5).  So...choosing between making a supply depot and doing a supply calldown, the supply depot costs you 125 minerals 30s earlier, the mule collects 240-270 minerals over 90s.  So...it depends how short your RoI time is.  If it's very short--you have a ton of CCs already built that you can make SCVs out of, such that you can spend all your money on SCVs, supply calldown is actually more economical.  With a 2 minute delay, 125 minerals is worth about 312 minerals 2 minutes from now.  With a 5 minute delay (more realistic; SCV production tends not to be the limiting factor) mules are better; supply calldown only ends up being worth about 180 minerals.

Of course, in the event of an unplanned supply block, supply calldown allows the terran to invest in SCV production rather than CC production, which has a much faster RoI and therefore is almost certainly worth doing.  (The alternative is to drop a mule, but in the 30 seconds that it takes to build a supply depot, you could make 4 SCVs out of two CCs, which have the same mining rate as a mule, so your mineral per second income will be the same, for 75 more invested compared to the cost of the supply depot, but those four SCVs will continue mining--it is highly unlikely you can reinvest those 75 minerals elsewhere to get more than four SCVs worth of mining by the end of 90 seconds.  Like...maybe if you had a field full of CCs that you didn't have the money to turn into orbitals you could make up the 75, but in that unlikely event  you wouldn't be wasting time building a supply depot to un-supply block yourself anyway, because morphing orbitals would be higher priority.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 13, 2013, 05:09:36 PM
SC2

So...laggy asked me if Tempests have the highest cost to supply ratio in protoss.  They're not the highest in the game (Ghosts and Banelings and Ravens still win that) but within protoss is an interesting question.

Tempest:
500 resources/4 supply = 125/supply

Dark Templar:
250 resources/2 supply = 125/supply

Phoenix:
250 resources/2 supply = 125/supply

Carrier:
700 resources/6 supply = 117/supply

Void Ray:
400 resources/4 supply = 100/supply

So...the answer is that it's now actually a 3-way tie for first.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 16, 2013, 09:19:27 AM
Boom, drafted.

Got a master of cruelties first pick, which made me think I would be blue/green/red or blue/green/black.  Started leaning black, but ended up picking up quite a bit of random red stuff from one source or another, and looked at my card pool at the end of the second pack, and decided I was black/red/blue.

Third pack, first pick had Trostani's Summoner, which was a real groaner for me because I had already decided I was black/red/blue.  But it also had Turn//Burn which was in colour and reads destroy target creature (or get a 2-for-1) so I didn't feel too horrendous about passing that one.  Master of Cruelties and Trostani's Summoner were the only real bomb creatures I saw.  (Although I did draft a Maze Abomination, which as I've mentioned is pseudo-bomby).

I ended up with about 30 cards in red/black/blue, and decided not to splash for the little green I got.  The green I cut:

1x Beetleform Mage (I have plenty of flying)
1x Thrashing Mossdog
1x Give//Take (I have plenty of card draw)
1x Kordoza Gorgon (to be fair, between Thrashing Mossdog and Give//Take I would actually have +1/+1 counters to remove, but only those two cards).

Cards that are in-colour that I'm not running:
1x Carnage Gladiator (had him in at first, but every deck I played against was more aggressive than me, and I have no lifegain.  He sounds great on paper, especially since he's a multicolour creature that gets all the bonuses)
2x Toil//Trouble (I have 3x Pilfered Plans, and have had trouble with keeping my life total up against the two decently aggressive decks I played.
1x Nivix Cyclops (I'm already playing two in the deck.  They have been decent performers, I just worry that they're not great when you have multiple on the table, so I'm not sure about going up to 3)
1x Smelt-Ward Gatekeeper (I'm playing 2x blue gatekeeper, and 2x black gatekeeper, and several other 4 drops.  This is the least controlling of the three)
1x Morgue Burst (I'm already running 3 cards at 6 CMC, blue maze elemental, black maze elemental, and blast of genius.  Morgue Burst operates off of power, and my powers tend to be 1-2 range when they're in the graveyard).
1x Maze Rusher (See Morgue Burst about the 6CMC).
1x Selesnya Guildgate (I really, really, really don't know whether to include this.  I only have four gates, which is really low when the gatekeepers are actually pretty important to my deck.  On the other hand, it's a land that taps for colourless and ETB tapped.  On the third hand, with 3 colours I really have yet to be colour screwed).
1x Maw of the Obzedat (yeah, not splashing white)
cluestones: My deck apparently struggles with being too slow, and already has plenty of card draw.

Mana:
17 lands, (4 gates, 13 basics--7 blue sources, 7 black sources, 6 red sources)
3 Divination variants (2CMC, draw 2 cards)
2 Opal Lake Gatekeepers (if I have 2 gates in play, draw a card)
1 6 CMC card draw spell (ok, this probably isn't mana fixing)

Spells (activates the 2x Nivix Cyclops, and 1x Fluxcharger)
1x Weapon Surge
3x Plifered Plans
1x Turn//Burn
1x Far//Away
1x Warped Physique
1x Blast of Genius

Cards I'm unsure about that I currently have in the deck:
1x Runner's bane.  It interacts so poorly with Far//Away.  And there's so many static/triggered abilities on small creatures that don't get shut down.  And I'm always a little disappointed that it isn't an instant or sorcery trigger.  That said, one of two 2 CMC spells in the deck (well...technically five spells can be played at 2CMC); I feel like I should keep it just because having a mana curve is a good thing.
1x Rubblebelt Makka.  So far it's been...a hill giant.  Attacking isn't something I've done a ton of.
1x Maze Glider.  It's been alright so far, but mostly a 3/5 flyer.  Still, that's something that I've needed.  Although...this card is really, really funny with Master of Cruelties....
1x Notion Thief.  Only been a flash blocker, but has pretty consistently killed one attacker I wanted dead; can't really complain.  Actually, it's also multicolour for interaction with the maze elementals, and still has the potential for cardstealing; doubt I'll cut this.
1x Weapon Surge.  Seems ok so far, but feels like an odd fit for a low creature deck.  It has consistently done work, though.

And I think that summarizes every card in my deck.  Oh yeah, 2x Wind Drake.  They don't interact with anything, they're just wind drakes.


Other possibilities: with so much card draw, I could think about going down to 16 lands.  I don't really like that though; I have a high curve, without the card draw I'd probably run more like 19.  Also, I've died with cards in hand; when I draw lots of cards, I need mana to cast everything.

Hmm...so sideboard options aside (there's probably slower decks than me, and I have the sideboard to make them suffer) there's not that much I'd be likely to change.  Maybe bring in the third Nivix Cyclops in exchange for...runner's bane?  I dunno.  Or I could mess with my land--bring in the simic guildgate, or go down to 16 lands.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 16, 2013, 09:43:10 AM
Also, I suspect I have a powerful but somewhat hard to pilot deck.  For instance, I had been casting my draw spells on 3, but I suspect that's a misplay and I should hold those in hand until I'm quite low on cards, especially when they interact with several of my creatures.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 16, 2013, 03:47:56 PM
Ok, after a few goldfish tests I am adding the Selesnya guildgate.  Reason being I don't have any double mana costs, but I often felt like I did need two gates.  And yet my counts were 7 black sources, 7 blue sources, 6 red sources, 4 gates.  Cut a swamp, because wind drake and runner's bane and nivix cyclops are good early plays.  With some goldfish testing...I rarely felt colour screwed when I drew the selesnya guildgate and almost every time I got it, it was my second gate for a gatekeeper.  (although there was one time I was missing a black on a mulligan to 5).  I did, however, have a monent of "nooo, it's a tap land :("

EDIT: ok, played a game where I felt thoroughly colour screwed (out of black) and I drew the selesnya guildgate.  The problem being I'm relying on plifered plans to draw me out of mana screw situations.  Maybe I should run 5 red sources?  Problem with that is that red has some of my only early blockers.

Weapon Surge has been feeling unspectacular during these goldfishes, but it felt good last night.  Maybe I'm just bad at imagining combat trick scenarios.  Thing is...cut weapon surge for...a Nivix Cyclops I guess?  But Weapon Surge is one of the things that turn on the cyclops.  Then again, just as a multicolour creature the cyclops often picks up deathtouch and/or flying.  EDIT: yeah, making that switch.  Drew it one extra goldfish where I just flat out did not have a play until turn 4, because weapon surge does nothing if you have no creatures in play.  (Incidentally, played Rubbebelt Makka as a creature that game...).  It's kind of a painful cut, because the card is good, but....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 17, 2013, 03:56:28 AM
Ok, played one game against a generally stronger deck.  (Which is to say, he had eight power uncommons, I had four, he had three rares, one of which was a massive bomb, I had two, one of which is a bomb.  He has lots of lifegain that I lack).  He was certainly ahead in both bombs and removal.  I was ahead in card draw and overall card advantage stuff.  But it was control on control and he had an X spell that could kill at 14 mana, which thankfully he didn't draw at key moments.  (I didn't get a single counterspell, not even the terrible 4 mana one to sideboard for that; poorly done on my part).

Went 2-1

He was playing a slower deck than I was, 4 colour with a ton of cluestones.  I sided in Carnage Gladiator (which I never got to play) and Maze Rusher.  Sided out some runners bane and nivix cyclops.

Cards that caused big problems for me:
2x Haunter of Nighveil (he was to my left and took both, probably why I didn't see them when I wanted them; my deck really badly wants one).
his bomb (Pontiff of Blight, particularly in combination with Haunter and my generally low power)
2x Sin Collector (I have a lot of pretty important instants and sorceries, making this always a pretty key 2-for-1)

A card that I should be playing a lot better: Notion Thief.  I had been thinking most decks won't have card draw, but that's not true.  Cluestones are going to be in almost every deck, and when I have a board advantage, my opponent's going to dig, and then I can 3-for-1 with Notion Thief.  I should probably also value keeping it out so that my opponent has a bunch of dead cards, rather than taking the first decent combat trade I'm offered.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 21, 2013, 03:56:59 AM
MtG

In spite of all my card drawing, which on paper means I can run less mana, I'm considering going up to 18 mana sources.

2 land hands are hands I kind-of want to mulligan, but a 6 card hand will very rarely have more than 2 lands either.  This deck doesn't really have 2 drops, and many of the 3 drops are two-colour cards (easy to miss a colour when I'm stuck on 3 lands).  So...basically if I have a 2 land hand, chances are I'll have nothing I can play in my opening hand, AND I'm pretty much in a situation where I should keep.

I don't know what I cut, though.  The 6 drops have all been strong performers.  The 5 drops are bombs and removal.  The 4 drops are most of my light mana requirement cards (and Notion Thief, which I want to keep using now that I realized how it works with cluestones).  The 3 drops...the wind drakes have done work, as have the Nivix Cyclopses.  I suppose I could swap out Plifered Plans as it serves a somewhat similar role (gets mana early if needed; draws cards late).  The 2 drops are removal, although...I guess I haven't been in love with Runner's Bane--so many of the problematic creatures with 3 power or less have passive effects or the ability to pump themselves, and it's antisynergistic with Far//Away.  Something I'd certainly board in for certain matchups, though.

Swapping in...a cluestone I think, rather than a swamp or an island?  On the one hand, it's rare that a cluestone will actually accelerate me, so it's like a double CIP tapped drawback on a land.  On the other hand, it makes two colours, and that's important.  The danger with cluestones that I discovered in an effectively sealed pool was that if you try and run like...15 lands and 5 cluestones, you might get stuck on 2 lands and 2 cluestones in hand.  But that's not what I'd be running here, which is 17 lands 1 cluestone.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 22, 2013, 07:56:12 AM
Probes vs Zealot 2

So...in the old game, weapon speeds went as follows:

100: +20%
200: +40%
400: +80%
800: +100%
1600: +200%
3200: +400%

In the new game they seem to be:

100: +20%
200: +40%
400: +80%
800: +100%
1600: +150%
3200: +200%
6400: +300%
12800: +400%

So...when do you upgrade speeds optimally?

0 speed, 0-300 damage
100 speed, 300 damage
200 speed, 400 damage
400 speed, 500 damage
800 speed, 3400 damage
1600 speed, 3000 damage
3200 speed, 7800 damage
6400 speed, 9400 damage
12800 dspeed, 25400 damage

So...basically the 800 cost speed is still largely ignorable.  The 1600 is worth getting just for being something that's an upgrade over the 400 cost speed and not as worthless as the 800 cost stuff.  3200 is a bit of an underwhelming upgrade--worth keeping the 1600 one a bit later or getting the 6400 a bit early.  128 you can avoid until you're pre-gas maxed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on May 22, 2013, 07:59:36 AM
Oh more Probes vs Zealots.  Was all excited for more MtG meta in a format I don't toy with.

Any insight as to why the change?  Was speed always optimal upgrade before or have all the scales been changed here?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 22, 2013, 04:04:59 PM
Was all excited for more MtG meta in a format I don't toy with.

I'm sure there will be more of that.  I have a tournament match this week against someone with I've heard 3 phytobursts, an armadillo cloak, and I believe Lavina of the Tenth+Species Gorger combo.

I really wish I had some lifegain in my sideboard for the phytoburst decks; it's pure card distadvantage, but I can't ignore it because my life total only goes down, so I'll probably have to chump block.  Cloak...I have removal, and deathtouch.  I've played against a cloak deck already.  Lavina I think could be a huge problem for me, as I have all of three creatures with 3+ CMC, and protection from red is very hard for me to deal with.

I'm not sure this is one of the lavina decks, though; it might not be.  (I do know there are two decks with lavina + species gorger).

Quote
Any insight as to why the change?  Was speed always optimal upgrade before or have all the scales been changed here?

A while back there was a forum of a new PvZ game that I don't think ever got made where I proposed a few changes.  Stuff like...

1. Nerf gas armor so that a gas based zealot is actually possible to deny feed on
2. Buff regen
3. Nerf max weapon speed
4. give the zealot a vision tool for lategame cleanup

The reason for calling out a max weapon speed nerf is as follows.  Attack boost blades are always matched dollar for dollar in PvZ.  The amount of damage you deal is your income.  400% speed boost means that you can literally double your DPS (and therefore double your income) after 15 seconds of feed.  15 seconds is not very much (to put things into perspective, if you have enough turrets to kill the zealot in 5 seconds, that tends to be straight up death, because you have a 5 second freeze spell.  Taking the freeze spell into account, then, if your turrets kill in 20 seconds, that's a ton of feed; the zealot can double up on you.  That's only a factor of 4 between instant death and easy feed, and in a game about powers of 2, a factor of 4 is a pretty thin margin.  Also add in that if the zealot arrives at your door and you realize your turrets are too low, it's about 5 seconds per upgrade).

This change only partially addresses the issue--the max weapon speed is still 400%.  However, it delays dealing with the max speed issue until much later in the game (right around when gas kicks in, where there's all kinds of balance issues anyway).


Granted, there are a bunch of other changes that I haven't really described because there's no interesting calculations to be done about them.

* Selling turrets now only gives a 50% refund.  This means turrets are usually not worth selling, unless you don't expect to rebuild them until you have quadruple your current income (at double income you only break even).  I don't really like this change because it gets rid of some of the higher skill/higher APM play where you regularly salvage and rebuild your turrets.  Although, it does mean as zealot if you're up against skilled probes, you can actually pressure their income just by visiting them.
* Probes auto-void.  In a game that usually isn't won by the smartest probe, but rather lost by the dumbest probe, this is very nice.  This means that the bottom end of skill is not quite so painfully low.
* Zealot has some ultra expensive end game damage blades and armor.  I think it goes from 32 to 160, and 160 to 512 for the price of doubling up.  It does make it a bit less frustrating as zealot "I'm totally maxed and can't break you wtf"--now at least the zealot won't be totally maxed, so they won't feel so bad.  The little I messed with these, though, they're too expensive and don't really save you.  It does change the balance a little as probe--formerly the correct play was to cut econ after 3 or so perfect miners and rush a final wall--yeah, don't do that anymore.  But that was a strategy maybe the top 1% of probes knew about (like...me, and people I'd shown my calculations), and everyone else just econed up anyhow.
* Probes aren't revealed for not having a nexus anymore.  Not sure how I feel about this--this was always a poor mechanic in the earlygame, and theoretically nice in the lategame but in practice easily circumvented with automines anyway.  It does mean your day can't be ruined by someone revealing your location
* Zealot gets full damage off of low HP targets (instead of the damage capping out at the target's max HP).  Definitely a good change--running and scattering automines everywhere is still entirely too strong a strategy, but at least now the zealot gets bank for killing the automines.
* Nexuses don't give full income until they complete their 5 second build time (annoying!  But not hugely relevant).
* Nexuses and automines don't have infinite resources (very weird!  But it hasn't come up for me so far)



Aaaaanyway, back to the interesting attack speed stuff that actually involves math....

How much slower is it compared to the original?

Up through 3100 resources, exactly the same income.
Up through 5300 resources, at the largest gap, 20% more income.  This is the point when in both games you'd use the 1600 mineral attack speed, and it's a 150% increase rather than a 200% increase.  x3/x2.5 = 1.2.
Now the gap rapidly spikes up between 5300 and 11000 resources.
Between 11000 and 15700 resources, it stays constant at 67% more income (this is the point when both games you'd use the 3200 mineral attack speed, which means 200% increase in one game, and 400% increase in the other)
And then the gap slowly drifts down from there once the higher attack speeds become good; around 38400 minerals (pre gas max) it's down to about 37%.
And obviously anywhere in the gas range the differences start evaporating.  (At one gas, it's 14%-18% off depending on whether you use a 128 blade too.  At two gas, 8%-9%.  At four gas, 5%)


EDIT: so...how much longer does it take to get max weapon speed?  Because once you get there, that equipment slot doesn't change and you can completely ignore all the game differences.  There's two factors in this...
1. max weapon speed costs more--the target is 38400 minerals instead of 28800 minerals for pre gas maxed
2. You reach the target slower

And the answer is...assuming continuous upgrades at all point (and also assuming that the 1 mineral per second passive income still exists--haven't checked that)

Old game: 220 seconds of feed
New game: 248 seconds of feed

Most of this gap coming from the slowed down midgame rather than the cost difference of the final setups (that evaporates in about 7 seconds of feed).  I will point out that 28 seconds isn't actually all that daunting; one extra feed session if you're lucky; two if you're not.

Although granted, this isn't the whole story.  In a real game there will be walking time, and you will need to upgrade your durability (and if your income is increasing slower, upgrading your durability will require a larger percentage of your total income, slowing you down more).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 23, 2013, 08:45:49 AM
Probes vs Zealot 2:

Some testing:

Mining gold minerals does not appear to have changed from PvZ1.  (Which means I think master through legendary miners only get +1 per mining cycle on gold; it was not a noticeable increase at any rate).

Zealot gets full income regardless of defence.  So there's no partial feed reduction by upgrading walls.

Boots don't stack.
Gas HP does not stack.
Gas regen still stacks.

Stalkers have the same damage and attack speed as turret 13s, but they have the following attribute "attacks: 3".  Tested this out, and they do indeed deal triple damage.




So like...stalkers as compared to turret 13.


When perfect miners are in the picture, 2 minerals are worth about 10 gas.  Which is to say, 1mil gas gets you 1296 min/sec, which gets you to 200,000 minerals in 154 seconds.  200,000 minerals worth of automines provides 6250 gas/sec, which adds up to 1mil gas in 160 seconds.  If you're rushing for either T13 or Stalker, you will be cutting some of your income development (automines in the case of T13, Perfect Miners in the case of Stalkers).

Which is to say, the effective cost of these two are...effectively

6mil gas: T13
15mil gas: Stalker

Which is to say, in a long game you should not be building any T13s.  Stalkers are just more cost-efficient and space efficient (even if they just stay stationary).  T13s still have a niche, however; you can rush a T13 faster than you can rush a stalker.  (Also, longer range!  Which doesn't mean much when stalkers can move and have blink, but...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 08, 2013, 07:34:45 PM
MtG

Not too much to report in the dragon's maze draft.  I've gone 2-1 in two different official matches (and 2-1 and 1-2 in unofficial matches).  My deck was built partially around the hope that I would get bombs, so I have a lot of stuff that stalls and a fair amount of card draw to...support bombs I don't really have, but it's still one of the few 3-colour decks (instead of 4-5), with card draw on top of that for extra smoothing, so I get free wins when my opponents choke and I don't.


In the mean time, looking forward to M14 draft...

Slivers!

Hard to tell right now, but it looks like maybe every colour will get two common slivers, one uncommon, and one rare.  Probably the same distribution as M13, so about 114 commons, 64 uncommons, 58 rares.  Which is to say, on average packs will have one sliver.  If you're looking for a specific common sliver, it'll be in about 1/11 packs.  If you're looking for a specific uncommon sliver it'll be in about 1/21 packs.

Artifact Commons:

3 mana for a 2/2 with no abilities.  I'm pretty skeptical about this one.

Green commons:

2 mana for a 1/1 slivers get +1/+1: it's a bear with an upside.  Also, fixed Muscle Sliver.  Pretty awesome
7 mana for a 5/5 slivers get trample: Looks pretty bad, honestly

Green uncommon:

(not yet revealed)

White Commons:

2 mana for a 2/2 slivers get vigilance: it's a bear with an upside even if you have no other slivers!
3 mana for two 1/1 slivers: not great without support, but slightly more interesting than the artifact 3 mana for a 2/2.

White uncommon:

3 mana for a 2/2 slivers get +0/+1: ehhh.  you'd need to be pretty heavy on Slivers to care about this, because 2 mana for a 2/3 is crappy on its own.  Even then it's not great.  Veteran Armorer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370361) is a common that existed at one less mana, and pumped everything.  (Great card to be fair, but it does put the power level of this into perspective).

Red commons

1 mana for a 1/1 slivers get first strike: If there's an aggressive deck running some muscle slivers or something this seems alright just for being a 1-drop that can stay relevant.  Probably not something you'd run in a non-sliver deck unlike the white and green bear-slivers.
3 mana for a 2/2 slivers get haste: Again, not something you'd run in non-sliver decks probably, but you can attack for 7 damage on turn 3 with this muscle sliver, and the red 1-drop, which is kinda cool.

Red uncommon

5 mana for a 3/3 slivers get +2/+0: not that great in a vacuum, but the synergy here is pretty nice, with red having a common first strike sliver, and a lot of small slivers in general, including one that could give this haste.



Blue/black

not yet revealed.



All in all I'd love to get 4-5 of the muscle sliver, but...in an 8 person draft, between 24 packs, with a frequency of 10/114 per pack, there's going to be two of those in the entire pool on average.  The entire pool.  4-5 is unlikely even if -nobody- else picks them.  The white bear is cool too, and something I'd cheerfully draft if in colour, but not really something that pulls me in the direction of slivers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Parametric on June 16, 2013, 10:05:48 PM
You should do some theorycrafting on Space Zombies (another custom map)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 23, 2013, 04:45:27 AM
From an email to a mailing list with interest in Magic & board games at my company:

Quote
So, I was thinking about absurd magic decks. And I became curious about the following question: what's the most damage a deck without an infinite combo can do in one turn?  ...<snip<...

So far, the best I've come up with is 125,049,445 damage on turn 53 on the draw. Can you do better?

<3<3<3

(I had the perfect links in response, of course.  It seems the combo's since been updated for Dragon's Maze, too, and uses a rather different engine now involving Cowardice & In The Grip of Chaos.)

http://soniccenter.org/sm/mtg/megacombo.html  for those too lazy to check met's earlier links.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 23, 2013, 05:46:37 AM
From an email to a mailing list with interest in Magic & board games at my company:

Quote
So, I was thinking about absurd magic decks. And I became curious about the following question: what's the most damage a deck without an infinite combo can do in one turn?  ...<snip<...

So far, the best I've come up with is 125,049,445 damage on turn 53 on the draw. Can you do better?

<3<3<3

(I had the perfect links in response, of course.  It seems the combo's since been updated for Dragon's Maze, too, and uses a rather different engine now involving Cowardice & In The Grip of Chaos.)

http://soniccenter.org/sm/mtg/megacombo.html  for those too lazy to check met's earlier links.

Oh, yeah, guess I never reposted it post grip of chaos/cowardice revolution.  That kind of broke things wide open, because anything that targets a specific group without being a part of that group becomes pretty powerful, like Dwarven Pony (http://gatherer.wizards.com/pages/card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=2998) and Merfolk Assassin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=108821).  Definitely pushed us well into the realm of "we are cutting lots and lots of cards we could be using because they would push us over the 60 card limit."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 24, 2013, 07:21:31 AM
Speaking of which, minor nitpick to maybe pass on to SadisticMystic...  he mentions a Snow-Covered Island that's animated for Natural Emergence.  Is that just a holdover from the earlier draft?  Or does he mean "in later loops, we can use a Tundra Kavu mutated Mothdust Changeling?"  (or is he CHEATING and introducing a Snow-Covered Island not in the decklist?!)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 26, 2013, 04:25:07 AM
Speaking of which, minor nitpick to maybe pass on to SadisticMystic...  he mentions a Snow-Covered Island that's animated for Natural Emergence.  Is that just a holdover from the earlier draft?  Or does he mean "in later loops, we can use a Tundra Kavu mutated Mothdust Changeling?"  (or is he CHEATING and introducing a Snow-Covered Island not in the decklist?!)

Probably just a holdover from an earlier version of the description.  I'll try to catch him online; haven't talked to him in a bit.


In the mean time, something interesting that I just thought of MtG related.  You see a card like Staff of Nin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249713) and you think "there's a card that would have been good in 1998".  Or even "There's a card that would have been good around the time of Kamigawa".  But you probably think "gosh, if the bar for 6 drops these days looks like this (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=241830), it's probably nowhere close to good enough."  But actually, as it turns out, the card is good enough, and does get played in standard.  Turns out, drawing a card every turn from an artifact or enchantment is still worth about 5 mana (like it has been since at least the days of Kamigawa (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=79176)), and a pinging effect is worth the extra 1 mana.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 04, 2013, 08:51:01 AM
MtG EDH

So like...in addition to limited, my coworkers play some EDH, and I've been borrowing decks.  And one of my coworkers just printed up a proxy decklist of a deck he's thinking of putting together, which got me thinking "well I really don't have enough of a collection to really put together an EDH deck with the tiny cardpool I own, but I could do that."

EDH is a bit of a funny format, because it's not strictly a competitive metagame; there are unwritten rules of "don't do cheap stuff like infinite combos."  But on the other hand, people appreciate a good deck, and take apart a weak deck.  And the current strongest deck in the playgroup is sort-of a combo deck (gets Pariah's Shield on Darksteel Colossus and various immortality tricks like that).  Whereas more average decks are like...a Ghave deck, a Kaalia deck, a Doran deck.  Not necessarily perfectly optimized or anything, just decks with on theme cards and bombs.  So this is the kind of power level to aim for.



What would I like to build given the ability to proxy anything?  The idea of a Relentless Rats (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205082) EDH deck amuses me, just because it gets to use a whole lot of cards that otherwise don't show up in the format like Bloodbond March (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=89000) and Thrumming Stone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=124451).  But upon further reflection all of the combos seem to have a really similar endgame.  "Hi, I have a bunch of vanilla 8/8s."  Seems like it would get monotonous.

I have certainly thought about making a Zedruu the Greathearted (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=236499) in the past, with the ravnica hunted cycle and forbidden orchard.  Also, Sorrow's Path, because donating that to people with the potential to force them to tap it is hilarious.  I don't really have the deck thought out beyond a few cards like the hunted, Sorrow's freaking Path, Gilded Drake, and a couple of cards like that, however.

What does seem like it could be kind of fun, however?  Slivers!  Especially since they are topical with all the new M14 cards coming out.



Obvious commander is Sliver Overlord (since it can tutor for the other two sliver legends).  Which...presents a slight problem.  I don't want to make this "that deck with an infinite combo", because tutoring is built right into the deck's commander--basically guaranteed to be tutoring every game.  The number of situations where "tutor for your infinite combo" would be correct is...probably pretty high.  So...right off the bat a few cards I think need to be mutually exclusive.

Probelm combo #1:
Sliver Queen
Basal Sliver

Technically this isn't infinite on its own, but combine with anything (a CIP effect, a tap effect plus haste) and it is infinite.

Which one to cut...?

What Basal Sliver does for the deck is give mana to a mana hungry deck.  When it really gets silly, it will let you play a bunch of slivers, triggering card draws, sac them for mana, play more slivers, sac them for mana until you're out, and then cast Patriarch's Bidding or Living Death.

What Sliver Queen does for the deck is just generally being a pretty bomby threat on its own, but also triggering stuff more cheaply.  Giving you free fodder you want to sac to your powerful sac outlets.  When it combos out is when like...all your slivers can tap for 1 mana, meaning you can double your creature count each turn.

Between the two of these...when Basal Sliver combos out, it probably takes 10 minutes of careful thinking about which land to tap for which colour of mana.  When Sliver Queen combos out, you tap some stuff, and up the counter on some dice.  Basal Sliver sounds more fun to goldfish, but Sliver Queen sounds like it'd be more fun for all the opponents, and for the nigh unreachable goal of keeping EDH games below 2 hours.

in: Sliver Queen
out (due to combos)[/b]: Basal Sliver


Probelm Combo #2:
Pulmonic Sliver
Hibernation Sliver
(insert sliver that gives haste)
Gemhide Sliver
1 mana Sliver
a powerful 0 mana sac outlet like Darkheart Sliver

Granted, this is a six card combo that just gets infinite life, but with Hybernation Sliver a 1 mana sliver and a way for that sliver to pay for itself, you do have "pay 2 life: draw a card".  So...really, it's infinite life and draw infinite cards.  Unfair enough that...you know what, let's just not have that in the deck.

In terms of cutting stuff....

0 mana sac outlet: I want 0 mana sac outlets, because I want to run Living Death alongside Patriarch's Bidding.

Gemhide Sliver: The deck is going to be starving for colour fixing and starving for mana as-is.  Not cutting this, especially since there's two of them.

Haste Sliver: this does too many hilarious things for me to want to cut it.

1 mana sliver: So......this one I would miss.  I kind of want to run screeching sliver just so that I can mill myself for a bunch, and then recur my entire graveyard.  I kind-of want to run the new 1 mana flying sliver.  I kind-of want to run Virulent Sliver.  But...none of these are essential.  In fact, Virulent Sliver and Screeching Sliver are in-general kind of bad in the deck, they just represent variety.

Hibernation Sliver: This thing is just over the top and funny.  With Sliver Queen it's 2: draw a card and put a 1/1 sliver into play.  Over the top without being infinite gets in my good books.

Pulmonic Sliver: This I could live without, although it is just genuinely a good card even when it's not comboing.


Tossup between Pulmonic and the 1 mana slivers.  Think I'll keep Pulmonic for now, although that's both the more powerful and more boring choice, which makes me wonder if I should choose otherwise....



Problem Combo #3
Wild Pair (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=207929)
Combined with a bunch of the above stuff.

You can play a 2 mana sliver, tap it for mana, tap the creature it searched up for mana, then bounce it in one of the variety of ways described above, and recast it with the 2 mana you just made.  And with Wild Pair that's enough to search up...the entire deck!

Technically, this isn't infinite!  It ends when you run out of cards in your deck.  That said, "all the slivers in the deck" probably means that if you're left with four untapped slivers, you can attack all four opponents with one sliver each, and each sliver will be like...a 35/35 doublestrike lifelink can't be blocked vigilance shroud.  While not technically infinite, the moment you untap with this the game is kind-of over.

I don't see an especially elegant way around it either.  Even if you cut the Pulmonic Sliver so that you need to pay life on every bounce, paying 20 life to get 10 slivers for free isn't too large a life payment, and probably is still game-ending.




Ok, those caveats out of the way....noncreature spells...

Yes to Patriarch's Bidding
Yes to Living Death
And...you know what?  Yes to the M14 version of this kind of card (Rise of the Dark Realms)

Lurking Predators...yeah, sure; doesn't go infinite because I can't control it, but sounds powerful in a multiplayer format.
Cryptic Gateway...could certainly run it.  Doesn't go infinite as long as putting a sliver into play doesn't cause two slivers to be in play.
Aphetto Dredging...maybe.  Seems decent.
Unnatural Selection...yes.  Does funny things with Sliver Overlord.
Genesis Wave...you know, slivers tend not to cost more than 5, so this could be pretty funny.
Call to the Kindred...also sounds pretty hillarious a lot like Lurking Predators
Descendant's Path does something like Call to the Kindred, but only looks at one card.
Coat of Arms...not thrilled by this.  The number of decks in the playgroup that can get 8 saprolings out (really not that much stuff) is...pretty high.
Door of Destinies...This, on the other hand, is much safer.
Distant Melody...mmm it's ok.  Like...you can get this effect without the creature type restriction for a couple extra mana.  But there's also a commander that lets you tutor cards, and slivers that draw cards.
Heartstone/Training Grounds...obviously out if I want to stick to the no infinites rule I've imposed on myself.
Tutors: Yeah, sure whatever, these can fill in card slots.
Eldrazi Monument: Given that the commander of the deck can steal cards (which can then be sacced to the monument) this seems fairly cool, yeah.  Would probably be obnoxious if it were tutorable, but since it's not and should only come up once every five games?  probably ok.  Kind of boring, though.  Like...it's obviously good, but my aim isn't to make an unanswerable deck.
Genesis: this is kind-of cute for sure, as slivers don't inherently have ways to get cards out of the graveyard.  Certainly something I could run, although living death effects are flashier.
Tunnel Vision: now THAT is more like it XD.  Might be a bit overkill, but I can at least try it first; people tend to run ways to exile graveyards so it might be alright.
Twilight's Call: another living death if I want it.
Survival of the Fittest: wait, this is legal in commander?  Apparently this is legal in commander.  Ok then.  Well, since I seem to be in the mood to have a living death subtheme, yeah, throw this in.
Crib Swap: It's a sliver, it's tutorable!

Ok, noncreature spells are looking something like

Patriarch's Bidding
Living Death
Rise of the Dark Realms
Tunnel Vision
Survival of the Fittest
Genesis Wave
Unnatural Selection (stealing stuffs)
Crib Swap (Tutor for it, kill something, and then steal the sliver left behind!)
Liquimetal Coating (what?  there are hilarious shenanigans I wish to execute with this, and they can be tutored for.  Yes, it's bad in this deck, but I suspect the deck will need power toned down a bit to be reasonable anyway)
Call to the Kindred (seems like the splashiest and most vulnerable of the lurking predators/descendant's path group.  Lurking predators is probably better, but could also go in any deck).
Aphetto Dredging (Eh, sure, the one thing slivers don't do on their own is get out of the graveyard.  A little more redundancy there, on a card that wouldn't go into a goodstuffs deck, seems like a fine include).
Cryptic Gateway (Yeah...if nothing else for the time it saves me on "oh wait, did I tap the right colours of mana?")

Ok, so 12 cards I want to run.  I'm a little suspicious Tunnel Vision might be pushing things a bit, though.

Next up: mana
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 04, 2013, 06:33:01 PM
So...mana.  Like...I am proxying, so I could just go like...10x Beta duals, 10x fetchlands, Mirari's Wake.  But that's completely out of step with the playgroup (where some decks are mostly basic, some have quite a few nonbasics).  So...arbitrary restriction time!  I can only use commons and uncommons!  What are my options....

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=31761
Odyssey sac lands.  Inclined to pass on these.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368523
Zendikar tapped life duals.  Seem like obvious includes, especially given the Karoos are also obvious includes.
(x5)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=23236
Invasion sac lands.  Actually a bit more interesting, but I think this deck never wants to sac its mana.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=207930
Ancient Ziggurat.  Yeah, when it's mostly creature spells, definitely this wants in.
(x1)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=3035
Homelands triple lands!!1  Maybe if I'm desperate.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=175128
Alara triple lands.  Yes please
(x5)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=121158
Coldsnap dual snow lands.  Maybe.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=270826
Karoos, obviously
(x10)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=174842
Panoramas, maybe.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369008
Guildgates, maybe (there's 10 of these).  Would be more tempting, except that the way I've worded the rules Maze's End is out.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=108930
Storage lands.  Mmm...this feels more like the kind of deck that wants to spend all mana every turn.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=21170
Doesn't untap after use.  Thinking no on these ones.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370490
City of Brass...apparently made its debut as uncommon!
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45491
The completely vanilla taplands!  I'd probably take snow or gate lands over these for the style points.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338442
Command tower, auto include
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=25936
Lairs!  I'm...skeptical, with the Karoos being so good, and already having this downside.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368505
Evolving Wilds.  Sure.  Honestly seems a step above the panoramas to me; it's just tap sac, instead of 1, tap: sac to get a tapped basic land out of the deal.
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19768
Henge of Ramos!  Mmm...feel like it could be less expensive to get the coloured mana.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=39421
Mirrodin's core...maybe.  I'm undecided.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271142
Rupture Spire, also a pretty good 5c land
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=3235
Again with the 2, T to get non colourless; maybe if I'm desperate, but I feel like it could be better.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271203
OH LOOK, it could be.  Yeah, this is a definite maybe.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368529
The tainted series (all trigger off of swamps).  I'm thinking no to these.  Won't fix mana when I need it.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247406
Temple of the false god is...colourless only, but might still be worth-it because of the colourless activated abilities.  Not sure.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=25980
Terminal Moraine...it's an any colour land search, but I'm not excited about it.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370459
Terramorphic Expanse, sure.
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=253550
Transguild Promenade; yeah, this seems good enough
(1x)

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189078
This is...a lot iffier than 1, T, add one mana of any colour.  Doesn't work on Karoos.  Not sure

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370400
Vivids!  Wow, Vivids are uncommon?  Welp, auto include.
(5x)


Ok, so how many cards is that?

5 life duals.
5 alara triple lands
10 Karoos
5 Vivids
2 fetchlands
5 rainbow lands

32

Yep, that's more than enough; might even want to cut something to make a bit more room for basics, as I do have some basic searching already, and am likely to pick up more when I get to spells.  Or I could just do the sensible thing and run more than 40 lands....  43 wouldn't kill me.  The basics will probably have a bit of a green focus, both so I can cast green ramp spells, and so that I can activate Survival of the Fittest lots of times in the later game.

In fact...how many of these produce green?  This is important to not choke out.  Let's see...two life lands, four Karoos, three Alara triple lands, 5 Vivids, 2 fetchlands, 5 rainbows.  21 so far.  If I run 4-5 forests that's 25.  25 is probably acceptable.



Moving on to mana spells....The lack of rares is making me cry just a little here.  I mean...

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=151989
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=290542

Want!  But can't have.

Let's see...artifacts....


Aether Vial was uncommon?  Ehhh...for all that it would be really good, this feels like exactly the kind of card the "only commons and uncommons" rule was meant to avoid.
Sol ring: This on the other hand...every EDH deck seems to have one, so sure.
Chromatic Sphere/Chromatic Star?  Maybe; good cards even if their fixing is temporary.  Handles one of the problems with Karoos (that they make you discard if you haven't played anything yet).
Terrarion?  Yeah, see above.
Springleaf Drum?  It's a definite thought.  I mean, there is a sliver that does the same thing, though, so...eh.
Fellwar Stone?  Seems decent; most of the time it'll be able to make 3-5 colours.
Kaleidostone?  LOL, well, it gets the overlord out I suppose, and then the overlord can tutor for mana slivers.
Prismatic Lens?  Also seems solid; probably worse than Fellwar Stone usually.
Sphere of the Suns?  This was played a bunch in standard, but it was played alongside Primeval Titan, which once you got titan out, it didn't matter that this would deplete.
Darksteel Ingot?  You know, the sliver that destroys artifacts and enchantments does not say "you may", so I might want this just to have a way to avoid blowing up my own stuff....
Borderposts!  Hmmm...well these are basically lands, but also lands that can't be played without a basic land, which I'm apparently only running around 9-12 of.  So...I'll give these a pass.
Vessel of Endless Rest.  Actually?  This is kind-of cool because I can use it on myself and then tutor with Sliver Overlord.  Or if someone puts their commander in their graveyard (which happens) then this is shenanigans.
Khalni Gem.  Hmm...with all the karoos, bouncing two lands sounds like it hurts a lot, so pass.


Enchantments...

Carpet of Flowers.  Umm...I think I'll file this under the Aether Vial category of "yeah, let's not actually go there."
Khalni Heart Expedition: this seems solid.
Bunch of enchant lands that let you add 1 extra mana; these mostly don't thrill me because of the 2-for-1 potential.  I guess Dawn Reflection is pretty cool: http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=51222

Instants and Sorceries

Search for Tomorrow: It's decent.  I feel like there's so many fixers that fix two colours, though, that I'm not sold on a spell that only fixes one.
Into the North: I suppose I could run the snow taplands instead of the life taplands
Rites of Spring: lol, funny with the living death plan.
Cultivate/Kodama's Reach: just good, and worth running.
Harrow: Mmm...the deck is mostly nonbasics, that pay all of their penalty early by etb tapped.  Saccing them would kinda suck.
Explosive Vegetation: This card is really good with Karoos running around.
Shard Convergence: Great on paper.  In practice I kind of expect this card to make me discard if I cast it early (Again, that Karoo clause).



Ok, so, in a deck where I can literally always spend more mana because I can pay 3 to tutor, and want to consistently hit WBRUG every game, I think "half the deck is mana" sounds reasonable.  If I'm running 43 lands (might be too much with karoos essentially counting as 2 lands hrm) that would mean 7 spells.

1x Khalni Heart Expedition
1x Cultivate
1x Explosive Vegetation
1x Sol Ring
1x Terrarion
1x Fellwar Stone
1x Vessel of Endless Rest

So.....2 spells that cost 1, 2 spells that cost 2, 2 spells that cost 3, 1 spell that costs 4?  Decent curve to it.  I...don't really feel satisfied yet, particularly given that I'd like more 1-drops due to the fact that I can't run any at all in the actual sliver part of the deck, and given that 43 lands with 10 Karoos is more like 53 lands.  Hmm...

-2 lands
+2 in Chromatic Star/Chromatic Sphere

Ok, that feels a lot better.  Kind-of tempted to make the two lands I cut the Transguild Promenade type lands, because with Karoos there's still a frightening number of lands I can't play on turn 1, and upping that to 12 is a bit scary.  So...ok 41 lands, 30 nonbasics, 11 basics?

6 forests
2 swamps
1 island, 1 mountain, 1 plains

The mana fixing spells (and the mana fixing slivers) are green, as is survival of the fittest.  I don't want to be stuck unable to cast patriarch's bidding/living death/rise of the dark realms because I couldn't search up another swamp.  The other two colours though...at worst there's a sliver with a double CC in its cost that I can't cast, but if I can cast the overlord I can tutor up some sliver based mana fixing, so yeah, whatever.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 04, 2013, 08:45:37 PM
Ok so on to the actual creatures.  38 deck slots left, but realistically I think 39 because I'm eyeing Tunnel Vision and thinking "yeah, that's probably overkill".  Slivers are divided into three basic categories.

The "herp derp slivarz" category pumps each other and smashes faces in.
The "tricksy" category does various silly stuff, destroys permanents, mills, etc.
The "don't hurt me" category, that saves itself.

I want to go more towards the tricksy, and less towards the "herp derp".  Not that I think it's too likely that I'll be that deck that knocks a player out of the game by turn 6 when all my lands are taplands, but still, whenever someone gets knocked out of an EDH game before they really cast anything, they tend to be sad.  Not that I won't do powerful stuff, but I want to focus more on, say, stealing and blowing stuff up and disrupting opponents than on attacking for 20 on turn 5.

With that in mind...

Acidic Sliver - While it is tricksy and allows blowing stuff up, I dunno.  Maybe if M14 provides a deathtouch sliver.
Brood Sliver - IN!  This card is hillarious.
Cautery Sliver - Same kind of sentiments as Acidic Sliver
Clot Sliver - Probably.  The thing is, there's already a 2 mana black regenerate sliver that's really good, namely
Crypt Sliver - IN.  Boring, but good protection
Crystalline Sliver - IN.  Not even that boring with flash
Darkheart Sliver - IN.  No questions here.
Dementia Sliver - Ehhh not sure.  Like...the effect seems really weak.  Tap all your creatures to maybe get them to discard a card or two.
Dormant Sliver - IN.  Hillarious
Essence Sliver - IN.  Yeah, lifegain is good if I become the target, which I might.
Firewake Sliver - IN.  Definitely want at least one haste sliver; this is the most interesting one.
Frenetic Sliver - IN.  Yeah, this card is pretty funny
Fury Sliver - probably not--as much as I do want double strike in the toolbox somewhere, the M14 card is better, and like I said the focus isn't beatdown; don't need redundancy here).
Gemhide Sliver - IN.
Harmonic Sliver - IN.  LOLOLOLOLOL Liquimetal Coating.
Hibernation Sliver - IN.
Homing Sliver - Probably not.  It's a lot worse than both Survival of the Fittest and Sliver Overlord's ability.  It is an additional way to search up mana fixing, I guess.
Hunter Sliver - Maybe.  Kind of board control, but assumes that I'm playing a lot of pump so might not be effective a lot of the time.
Magma Sliver - IN.  It is a herp derp beatdown card, but I do want a few I can tutor for to close out games, and this is particularly good at "take 21 commander damage".
Mesmeric Sliver - Ehh...seems like it would slow things down a lot, and just generally not be fun to play against "you draw nothing but land, you stay mana screwed".
Mindwhip Sliver - IN, I suppose.  The good sliver discard for multiplayer costs 1 mana, but that's out.  This probably won't be used too often, but toolboxes and all that.
Mnemonic Sliver - You know, all the other sliver draw is better; leaning against this for now.
Muscle Sliver - Probably.  I imagine there aren't 38 different and unique utility slivers, so I'll have to fill the last few slots with herp derp ones; might as well be this.
Necrotic Sliver - IN.  so in.
Opaline Sliver - IN.  Not actually all that interesting, but I doubt I'll end up cutting it.
Psionic Sliver - Maybe.  Funny card.  Doesn't do much without pump cards, though, and I'm deliberately running light on those.
Pulmonic Sliver - IN.  (Kinda hits all three categories; protection, combo shenanigans, herp, derp I fly)
Quick Sliver - IN.  The shenanigans with this are hillarious.  Especially since they can be tutored for.
Quilled Sliver - Maybe.  Depends if M14 has a deathtouch sliver.
Root Sliver - Maybe.  I'm not thinking of a whole lot of counterspells in the playgroup, and I'd expect them to go on the living death effects instead.
Sedge Sliver - Maybe.  More regenerate, but won't often get the pump.
Shadow Sliver - Maybe.  Not sure how many "you can't block me" effects the deck needs.
Shifting Sliver - IN.  Speaking of you can't block me effects, though, this is blatantly the best one.
Sinew Sliver - Maybe.  Moar muscle sliver.  This is less likely to make the cut if I'm space filling than the other two because I'm base green.
Sliver Legion - IN.  If there is one "herp derp slivarz" card to include, this is it.
Sliver Queen - IN.  Shenanigans.
Synapse Sliver - IN.  Yeah, sure, mass curiocity is funny.
Telekinetic Sliver - IN.  Exactly the kind of place the deck wants to go, with more control and less "I win the game".
Toxin Sliver - Maybe.  I guess it's decent with the provoke sliver if I run that, but only if there isn't a deathtouch sliver in M14.
Two-Headed Sliver - Hmm...how much evasion do I need?
Ward Sliver - IN.  Does all kinds of stuff.
Amoeboid Changeling - IN.  LOLOLOL stealz your stuffz.
Chameleon Colossus - Maybe.  It's a herp derp sliver for sure, but it's good at what it does.
Mirror Entity - Maybe.  Another powerful herp derp sliver.
Taurean Mauler - Maybe.  Another powerful herp derp sliver.

For M14...
Bonescythe Sliver - IN.  I certainly want access to doublestrike, if for no other reason than it's funny with all my "when this deals combat damage to a player" triggers.
Sentinel Sliver - IN, Probably.  Vigilance allows for some shenanigans, like attacking, and then using tap effects afterwards.
Syphon Sliver - IN.  The fact that you can stack the two lifelink effects to gain double the life, and then use Bonescythe Sliver to gain quadruple the life is something I want to do just once.
Thorncaster Sliver - IN, probably.  This is a lot more intriguing if deathtouch is possible.
Megantic Sliver - maybe.  It's a herp derp sliver, but a pretty good one.
Predatory Sliver - maybe.  Best muscle sliver and all that.
Manaweft Sliver - IN


Ok, so what's the card count looking like...29, and waiting on M14 to see if it delivers the expected deathtouch sliver.  If it does, that's 30, and then 3 or so of the slivers that benefit from deathtouch can be added.  Round things out with the muscle slivers and Megantic Sliver or something.  If not...well hmm, maybe I cut a different combo piece like Pulmonic Sliver so that I can run a bunch of 1 mana utility instead.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 07, 2013, 11:50:41 PM
Starcraft 2: so...something funny I've noticed?  You can almost always figure out the DPS of a starcraft 2 army just by being told how many units are in the army (with no regard for what kind of units are in the composition).  With some exceptions of course, but....

Let's call a unit that deals 7 DPS "one stuffs"

Zergling: 1 stuffs
Queen: 1 stuffs
Roach: 1 stuffs
Hydra: 2 stuffs (Ohmigosh, hydras deal sooo much damage!11)
Locust: 2 stuffs
Ultralisk: 6 stuffs
Mutalisk: 1 stuffs
Corruptor: 1 stuffs (1.5 stuffs against massive)
Brood Lord: 1 stuffs (for its main attack)
Broodling: 1 stuffs


Marine: 1 stuffs (1.5 stuffs when they stim!)
Marauder: 1 stuffs (2 stuffs against armored, 1.5/3 stuffs when stimmed)
Reaper: 1 stuffs
Ghost: 1 stuffs
Hellion: 0.5 stuffs (1.5 stuffs against light with blue flame)
Hellbat: Slightly defies classification (1.3 stuffs against armored, 2 stuffs against light)
Widow Mine: 0.5 stuffs (but very frontloaded)
Siege Tank: 2-3 stuffs unsieged (light-armored) 1.7-2.5 stuffs sieged (light-armored)
Thor: 7 stuffs (1 stuffs against air.  2 stuffs against light air)
Viking (air): 1.5-2 stuffs (light-armored)
Viking (ground): 1.7 stuffs
Medivac: 0 stuffs, but it counteracts the fact that marines and marauders have stim and Hellbats are OP to make terran armies have the right amount of DPS for their unit counts.
Banshee: 3 stuffs
Battlecruiser: 5 stuffs vs ground, 4 stuffs vs air

Zealot: 2 stuffs (but when you kite them they're 0 stuffs, so it balances)
Sentry: 1 stuffs
Stalker: 1 stuffs (1.5 stuffs against armored)
Dark Templar: 4 stuffs
Immortal: 2 stuffs (5 stuffs against armored)
Colossus: 2.5 stuffs
Archon: 2 stuffs (3 stuffs against biological)
Phoenix: 1.3 stuffs (2.5 stuffs against light)
Mothership Core: 1.5 stuffs
Void Ray: 1.7 stuffs (3 stuffs-5 stuffs against armored depending on alignment)
Oracle: 2.5 stuffs (4 stuffs against light)
Tempest: 1.3 stuffs (3.5 stuffs against massive air) -- clearly the real reason Blizzard made the tempest was so that the protoss capital ship of choice would do the same DPS as a marine.
Carrier: 4 stuffs (This is obviously why they wanted to remove the Carrier)

Probe/SCV/Drone: 0.5 stuffs


A few units buck the trend, but usually in obvious ways.  (An immortal is a double stalker!  A marine is extra stuffs when it stims!  A worker is less stuffs than a unit).  And air units are a little more all over the map than ground units.  But most ground units fall very close to 7 DPS (or a multiple of 7).

Except Hellbats.  WTF.  Did hellbats really need to deal more damage to armored units than roaches?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 08, 2013, 07:04:43 AM
The full M14 has been spoiled!  And..........no deathtouch sliver.  In fact, black and blue got exactly one sliver each.  Well then.

I really like the interaction of the pinging sliver and deathtouch, though.  Exactly the kind of combo I want to go for (does something powerful without actually killing a player or ending the game).  So.........stuff that gives your creatures deathtouch?

This actually seems to be a pretty underused effect.  There's...Ready//Willing, Vault of the Archangel, and that's about it; everything else is like...wolves have deathtouch or rats have deathtouch or multicolour creatures have deathtouch or skeletons and zombies have deathtouch.  Vault of the Archangel is rare and a land, so I guess that means Ready//Willing.  Although...hmm, maybe I should make an exception for Vault of the Archangel, because I'm obviously not including it for the mana fixing.  On the flip side, if I start going there, there's this card called Mutavault that I maybe should be including....

Certainly Ready//Willing has a good bit of utility either way.  Saves slivers from sweepers.  Will often literally pay for itself by untapping things that make mana.  To say nothing of the deathtouch silliness.  So yeah, it's in.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 09, 2013, 07:41:58 AM
Thinking on it, I really do want Vault of the Archangel, just to have something permanent that grants deathtouch.  Ready//Willing is fine and all, but "surprise combat trick: some of your stuff dies one time" is kinda what the card already did....  In fact, if I want to get use out of the pinging, I need to cast it before blockers are even declared.  Whereas with Vault, it's repeated creature kill.

Alright, so now that we know M14 isn't providing deathtouch...

Cautery Sliver/Acidic Sliver: out, probably
Hunter Sliver: think this is in; can use the "combat damage destroys" sliver
Quilled Sliver: Still maybe.  ...they'll see the deathtouch land on the table and know not to attack or block
Root Sliver: Sure, in.
Regenerating slivers like Sedge and Clot: maybe
Toxin Sliver: in
Chameleon Colossus: Kinda want this in just because every once in a while this deck seems like it will make a bunch of tokens that can all tap for mana.

And...thinking I want some kind of less expensive evasion to tutor for, just in case I want to be like "surprise you can't block my commander".  One mana is sadly out.  At two mana there's Winged Sliver and Two Headed Sliver.  Thinking Winged.  Among other things, if the one flying card in the deck gets exiled or something, I don't just lose to flyers.

So...that's five cards I've shifted to in status.  Ready//Willing is a sixth.  That leaves about 4ish slots I think.  I'm fine with filling that with muscle/megagigantic and calling it a day.  Or maybe swap one of those muscles out for two-headed or quilled just for variety.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on July 15, 2013, 07:29:37 AM
Going back to the extremely-large-but-not-infinite combo shenanigans, M14 offers Path of Bravery to add an extra layer at the end, I think. 
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370798

I don't think this is actually better than just using more critters that can't target themselves for the chain, though.  Maybe worth a footnote or something?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 18, 2013, 06:57:16 AM
Going back to the extremely-large-but-not-infinite combo shenanigans, M14 offers Path of Bravery to add an extra layer at the end, I think. 
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370798

I don't think this is actually better than just using more critters that can't target themselves for the chain, though.  Maybe worth a footnote or something?
At this point, we're more limited by the 60 card restriction.

Path of Bravery...you get to put X of them into play before you attack thanks to doubling season, and then you attack and get X triggers.  But these triggers don't scale between each one (without Boon Reflection) so it's 1 layer for 1 card.  1 layer for 1 card is not actually worth a deck slot.

The one that caught everybody's eye, of course, is Stronic Resonator, but last I checked nobody could think of a good way to use it without it going infinite:

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370670
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 30, 2013, 09:33:34 AM
Starjeweled

So...a measure that people use in the community of how much energy you're producing is Energy per Minute, which is really just manually take the game time, and divide your energy at the end.  Shorthanded as EPM.  But because this is all done manually, and because there tends to be variation from game to game, I'm starting to think that there may be misreporting going on.

Historically, the thinking went as follows:

Bots: 4k-5k EPM

Best human players out there: 3k-3.5k EPM

Good human players 2.5k EPM



The recent evidence I've looked at seems to contradict that.  At least for an average non-lucky game, that lasts for a few minutes so that random variance doesn't do weird things, and where spells are being used.

So...going back in time to take a look at plex in a longish game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3MTb9fSWeE

11:49 game length, 30480 energy.  Total EPM: 2580.


So like bots.  Dr Ribosome is the most famous one, and certainly has a famous youtube video with ridiculously high energy, but also some videos with less impressive energy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owc2W2DZaH0

8490 energy, 2:42 game length.  Total EPM: 3145.
(Also: celebrity appearance by Grrr in this video)
Granted, this is not the best version of the bot; the best version plays like a chess engine and thinks several moves ahead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_hDoXoPrl4

2:27 game length.  10380 energy.  Total EPM: 4237


So...the finals of the recent tournament; Kira vs Jeremy.  Funnily enough, none of the players that have historically been classified as nigh unbeatable (Luke, Crush, Xat, Plex in his prime)

http://www.seroskal.com/tourny-may.html

5:26 game length.  Both had around 15800 energy.  Total EPM: 2900



Which is really interesting; it implies to me that instead of "starjeweled used to have an elite who could reach 3k every game" that starjeweled players as a group have actually been getting better over time, even when some of the individual stronger players have ducked out.

Just to be sure I checked an old replay I had stored on my computer of plex.  This was from around...oh, Sept 2011 or so.

4:34 game length.  11130 energy.  Total EPM: 2440

You know, when plex came back briefly, I concluded he was rusty.  But upon further reflection, actually no, he hadn't dipped significantly.



So basically:
Bots are slower than most people seem to think they are.
The community now seems to be more talented than it used to be, even if most of the former "top players" have left.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DjinnAndTonic on August 24, 2013, 09:15:43 AM
Can we request a metroid in depth look at meta gaming? Cause I've been getting hyped about Smash Bros again and I like some of the things about its meta game, but Smash Bros fans are terrible. I'd prefer to listen to a more focused metroid examination of it. Of course if you're busy, I understand, just putting it out there that there's some interest in it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K. on August 25, 2013, 09:27:20 PM
Did you watch EVO Djinn?  They brought back Melee as a main event.  While a Fox won the whole thing, second was Ice Climbers (due almost entirely to their infinite), and third was a Jigglypuff.  The former best player in the world also had an excellent Peach in the top 8.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 31, 2013, 06:26:31 PM
It should be noted that I don't acutally understand Melee on a numerical level like some people do, so I'm the wrong person to do a metagame analysis.

I can tell you that Armada (the peach player) was completely dominant, literally hadn't been in a loser's bracket in two years.  He then "retired" at the end of 2012, but still showed up to EVO despite being in not particularly great shape.  Before Armada's dominance, Jigglypuff was absolutely oppressive, and some people argued ruining the tournament scene.  (Jigglypuff vs Jigglypuff made for pretty much the worst grand finals ever to watch).

Lower tier characters have been rising in prominence, for the following reason: smash has a mechanic called DI (directional influence) where the direction you hold on the control stick influences your position in the air.  If you know all your opponent's character's combos, with good DI and perfect timing, you won't get comboed.  Now, a lot of the low tier characters are low tier because they don't have many combos, but now that so many players are becoming fantastic at DI, high tier characters don't really combo.  So, for instance, major matches (like winners finals) have been stuff like...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltK9sfN2xUE
Mewtwo vs Peach

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0osuNxURlzE
Ness vs Young Link
(Armada couldn't beat Hungrybox's Jigglypuff, so he started counterpicking Young Link, and then Hungrybox counterpicked his counterpick with Ness).

And of course, there are pretty good players who are arguably top 10 in the world and main unusual characters (Shroomed with Dr Mario, Axe with Pikachu, Wobbles and Chu Dat with Ice Climbers).

This is on top of the usual Fox/Falco/Marth/Shiek/Jigglypuff/Peach you tend to see in top 8.  I guess Captain Falcon has dropped off a little in top 8 results (well...Hax sometimes makes top 8 with CF).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2013, 10:35:18 AM
So like...starcraft 2.

As a review, when you 6-pool rush your opponent, generally you get to make drones back up to 7, and then save up to make six lings when the pool finishes, and then you're at 10/10 supply, and need to either make an overlord, or do an extractor trick for an extra set of lings.

Tonight, I accidentally did a 7 pool, and had it work out very nicely for me--something like 5 seconds slower than the 6 pool, had 8 drones and an overlord, and made 6 lings.  This is a pretty monumental step up--one more drone, AND an overlord to allow for nonstop ling production.  This was a little surprising--was one extra drone really mining 100 extra minerals?  Now, i had also been stacking my drones, so I wondered also if that could be it.

And the answer is...spawning pool takes 65 seconds to make; drones generally collect 40-45 resources per minute.  So...yes, at a glance I think mineral stacking does actually enable a build here that otherwise wouldn't really work.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 17, 2013, 11:29:05 PM
Ok, decided to do some formal testing to see exactly how much you get from the 7 pool compared to the 6 pool.

6 pool:

41 s Pool
1:46 lings

44 s pool
1:49 lings

40 s pool
1:46 lings

40 s pool
1:46 lings

40 s pool
1:46 lings


7 Pool

51 s Pool
1:56 lings

49 s pool
1:54 s lings
(5th/6th ling at 1:57 due to supply block)


47 s pool
1:53 lings
(5th/6th ling at 1:59 due to supply block)

48 S pool
1:53 lings
(supply blocked, though)

49 s pool
1:54 lings
(5th/6th lings at 1:57 due to supply block)

49 s pool
1:55 lings
(5th/6th ling at 1:59 due to supply block)

50 s pool
1:55 lings
(5th/6th ling at 1:58)

48 s pool
1:53 lings
(5th/6th ling at 1:56 from supply block)



So...looks like on average it's about 8 seconds slower, with +1 drone, and +1 overlord.  (Provided drone stacking is perfect).  Zerglings 5 and 6 seem to be about 10 seconds slower.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 27, 2013, 09:47:27 AM
So...picked up one of the pre-con commander decks.  (power hungry in this link (http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/feature/269c)).  Been making modifications to it.

First cards cut:

Hooded Horror: 4/4 can't be blocked for 5.  powerful, but not really in the theme of the deck
Wight of Precinct Six: Potentially huge for 2 mana--gets pumped by all opponents graveyards.  Again, not really in-theme, though.
Walker of the Grove: In theme but dull.  You can sacrifice your 8 mana 7/7 for one creature...yeahhhh
Hunted Troll: interesting in multiplayer, 8/4 regenerator for 4, and the downside isn't necessarily a downside because you might be teaming up with someone against a bigger threat.  Again with the not really in-theme though.
Terra Ravager: +x/+0 where x is the number of lands defending player controls.  That hurts.  Again, not especially in-theme
Widespread Panic: Punishes people who do a lot of library searching.  I don't really feel I need to punish that, since nobody's abusing tutors too hard.
Vile Requiem: One of the last of the first batch to be cut; I was hesitant to cut removal, but it's underwhelming; 6 mana, and needs to exist in play for two turns to get more than one creature.
Spoils of Victory: the mana fixing this deck came with is pretty awful--that's most of what I swapped out.
Restore: Kind-of interesting mana fixing potentially, in that it can steal fetchlands from other players.  The first few times I ran the deck I just wanted to reliably get to 6 mana for Prossh, though.
Obelisk of Jund: cut for signets
Dirge of the Dead: Yeah, ok, this is a very out of theme card.  The commander in this deck has evasion.
Curse of Chaos: The other two curses fit the theme (more tokens, and +1/+1 counters on everything?) but this one, while good, was harder to justify.
Carnage Altar: The deck needs sac outlets, but this is pretty mediocre.  Jaemdae Tome is 4 mana to draw a card.  3 mana and sac a creature?  Ehh.
Rupture Spire: Lands that enter tapped are already problematic, what with karoos and stuff.  Lands that enter tapped and require you to have another land?  Nahh.
2xMountain: I added the two missing red karoos.

Added common mana:
Rakdos Signet
Gruul Turf
Cultivate
Rakdos Canarium
Kodama's Reach
Gruul Signet
Golgari Signet
Awakening Zone (ok, this is rare, and kind-of borders the common mana fixing to splashy effect)

Added splashy stuff:
Blood Artist (drain 1 every time a creature dies? lol ok)
Craterhoof Behemoth (So...with just prossh it's 74 damage with trample?  ok)
Skullclamp (Lots of 0/1 tokens you say?)
Black Market (Lots of creatures being sacced you say?)
Rapacious One (You know, I added this, and realized later I could have added like...Grave Titan instead.  I think I'm keeping this, though; it's not like any other EDH deck is going to make use of Rapacious One like this deck does).
Tombstone Stairwell (Zombies for everybody!  Does silly things with all the death triggers floating around this deck.)
Gaea's Cradle (so...your commander costs 6 mana and makes 7 creatures you say?)
Grave Pact (Did you say you were going to sac a lot of creatures?)


After piloting the deck a bunch, I've come to the following conclusions.

It draws a lot of hate, but it can take it.  I've certainly piloted decks which kind of just cried if they lost, say, doubling season.  One thing I do like is that...yes, it's powerful, but people generally get a few turns warning to blow up some of the more ridiculous stuff.  Except for Craterhoof Behemoth; that can just come out of nowhere.  Might be too good.

The deck would not take much tweaking to knock players out in one turn fairly consistently--like...a piece of equipment that gave double-strike, for instance, would consistently deal 22+ commander damage in one swing.  I'd like to avoid this.

I'm reasonably happy with the mana now; tend to get to 6-8 mana in reasonable time.

There aren't enough sac outlets.  Prossh really wants sac outlets so that you can recast him and get more kobolds.

There is an infinite combo purely within the precon cards (tooth and claw, primal vigor, just about anything that triggers from death).  This hasn't come up yet, though, so I'm not too worried.

Paying 3 mana to make a creature is pretty overpriced based on the opinion of this deck.  (You can usually mint about 1 mana  to 1 creature off of prossh).  This really lowers the value of cards like Jade Mage and Endless Cockroaches.  That said, Kher Keep has been a fantastic card, but I guess being a land helps with that.

Tombstone Stairwell...the creature count in this deck is actually pretty low so there often aren't many in the graveyard.  It's a hillarious card, though, don't want to cut it, so probably just be careful not to cut any more creatures.

Curse of Shallow graves is pretty underwhelming.  One free token a turn for 3 mana is good, and there's a few cards like that, but you have to attack one player to get it, and unlike most other token generation, it comes into play tapped, and it works for other players too (for all that this can be an upside if people ignore you--the temptation of a tapped 2/2 usually isn't as important as more important game state stuff).  There's some cards I'm not comfortable cutting as I haven't really given them a fair shot, but yeah, this one might be on the chopping block.


Also note: I'm avoiding including cards just because they're good unless they are very on-theme.  I.e. I haven't added derranged hermit or avenger of zendikar yet, for example.



So...round 2...

Remove: Jade Mage, Endless Cockroaches, Curse of Shallow Graves (it's too often better to spend mana on the commander than these) and Craterhoof Behemoth (too gamebreaking)

Add:
Puphoros, God of the Forge/Shared Animosity.  I'd like some kind of overrun effect, even though I'm cutting Craterhoof.  I'd like to see these, as I've never seen them before; most token decks are like...green white black or green white.
Korozda Guildmage: Spending 4 mana to get 5 1/1s off of saccing prosh (which you may have wanted to do anyway) is...solid mana use.  Worth paying.  Could also play Feed the Pack (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262857), but only saccing at end of turn is inconvenient; means you can't sac and immediately recast.  The least flashy of the four additions, but it's also a 2-drop creature to replace one of the 2-drop creatures.
Mycoloth: absolutely silly; devouring prossh and his kobolds means an 18/18 that puts 14 1/1s into play every turn.  Also a way to sac things, technically.
Greater Good: excellent sac outlet, especially for a creature that will often have 11 power.  Surprised I didn't think of it until my coworker mentioned it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 27, 2013, 06:05:07 PM
You might want to try Homura, Human Ascendant (http://gatherer.wizards.com/pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=84716).  He's pretty hilarious with both tokens and Greater Good.

Flip side, I think Skullclamp is on the game-breaking side of things.  It's obviously fantastic but I'd cut that before Craterhoof if you're concerned about "playing fair."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 29, 2013, 06:50:18 PM
Homura?  I don't actually have that much red mana, so it would primarily be a global +2/+2.  Given my relatively low red mana I'll often be able to firebreath as much on Purphoros, God of the Forge (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=374552).  (And from what little I've tested with Greater Good, draw 11 cards discard 3 is enough.  In fact it usually leaves me with a degree of decision paralysis with what to discard).

Quote
Flip side, I think Skullclamp is on the game-breaking side of things.  It's obviously fantastic but I'd cut that before Craterhoof if you're concerned about "playing fair."

I think you're underestimating Craterhoof.

Play Prossh, 7 creatures in play.   Play hoof, you have 8 creaures, +8/+8, attack for 74.  That's generally two people dead.  Now, if you have two more creatures from somewhere, everything gets +10/+10 and you get to attack for 110.  That's generally three people dead.  Game over.


Skullclamp has been solid, but not even the best performer, or necessarily the best card drawing.  By far the best card has been Black Market (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19831).  Well...either that or Grave Pact.  (Greater Good might actually be the best card drawing in the deck right now.  Fecundity is also very good, for all that it's symmetrical, so realistically it's not as good.  Foster (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=377057) is also pretty scary, but limited by mana the same way skullclamp is).

Skullclamp doesn't really turn on until after Prossh usually.  And even then, I need to invest mana into it at sorcery speed, and it means sacrificing some damage output/blockers.  I've drawn it in several games against my coworkers, usually draws 2-4 cards and then gets blown up.  Don't think I've won any of the games where I drew it (actually, the deck has only won once).


But yeah, fundamentally I think mana is just more dangerous for this deck than cards.  Like...a card that I'm not including because it breaks things in half is Food Chain (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19737) (literally lets me cast and recast prossh an infinite number of times for unlimited kobolds).  Phyrexian Altar (http://gatherer.wizards.com/pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=23226) is also infinite.  I'm similarly avoiding Mana Echoes (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=39571) and Ashnod's Altar (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=202622).  They're not infinite because they make colourless but like...Black Market is already dominant, and those seem better because they don't require you to accumulate counters first.  Gaea's Cradle is also really good in the deck of course (like...I don't complain at all when Cradle has land destruction thrown at it) for all that Cradle is not as broken as you might think in the deck since it tends to sac the kobold tokens, not accumulate them, and also doesn't always have creatures before turn 6.

But yeah, anyhow, so far skullclamp has seemed within reasonable power levels in lunch games.  I mean, it deservedly draws out removal, don't get me wrong but....


Other cards I have been tossing around...
Quote
Phyrexian plaguelord
Greater Gargadon
Lands (high market, miren)
Sac outlets.  In fact, really good sac outlets.  I shied away from these a little bit because I'm not aiming to make an impossible to deal with deck (like...Greater Gargadon has no way of turning off the sac outlet).  Phyrexian Plaguelord would be fine, but the precon comes with Fell Shepherd, which is very similar.  Worse, of course, but I'm not looking to jack up the power of the deck.

Quote
Dragon broodmother (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189648)
Another sac outlet, another source of tokens, and just a ridiculously overpowered card in multiplayer formats where it makes 4+ tokens per turn because it triggers every upkeep.  Actually, I'm not sure why I don't have this one in.  The logic in my head was that "Ideally I want to attack with prossh, sac it after combat, and then re-cast it, and Broodmother doesn't allow that.  Also, Mycoloth is even more ridiculous."  And these are true, but I think something that does all three of makes tokens and allows me to sac, AND that is a good method to turn 0/1 kobolds into damage (6 kobolds make a 13/13 dragon token).  Yeah...I probably should find room for it. >_>

Quote
Feed the Pack (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262857)
I ended up choosing Korozda Guildmage over it, for some of the similar logic to the above (lets me recast prossh the same turn).  Also, it's a creature and thus fuels Tombstone Stairwell (which is often a pretty weak card in the deck, but it's funny so I want to support it).  I feel kinda bad, though, as it's a totally forgotten card that would be great in the deck; oh well.

Quote
Avenger of zendikar, deranged hermit

They're really, really good.  But that's about it--no special interactions with the rest of the deck other than making tokens.  I'm aiming to have the cards I add be for a specific purpose because they have unusually good synergy.

Quote
Sarkhan the mad

It's a sac outlet for Prossh, and lets me fling extra damage at people's faces.  Not super excited about it, though.

Quote
Trading Post

Another sac outlet that didn't have me super excited (although it does make tokens!)  I guess the artifacts in my graveyard is the sticking point here.

Quote
Champion of Lambholt (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=279608)

This on the other hand, does work very well in the deck.  I guess it just doesn't have me super excited (it's...basically big and vanilla, and makes my opponents unable to block.  Doesn't sound like the funnest way to win, and most of the time it'll just draw out removal before it does much anyway).

Quote
Masked Admirers, Solumn Simulacrum, Yavimaya Elder

Generically good cards that like being sacced.  They do feel like power level upgrades without having particularly special interactions, though.

Quote
Hellion Eruption (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271158)

Ok, I do want to make room for this one.  Another sac outlet, and makes good use of 0/1 tokens.  Didn't make the last cut because I was looking for repeatable sac outlets, and wasn't so keen on the fact that everything had to be sacced since some of my engine pieces are creatures.  But it's funny, I should find room for it for that reason alone, maybe even swap it in for a more powerful card like Inferno Titan.

Quote
Ogre Battledriver (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370662)

Another cute pump spell; allows attacking for 22 after dropping Prossh.  I guess it didn't make my last cut because it's not quite as silly as Shared Animosity.

Quote
Instigator Gang (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=227415)

An interesting pump spell.  Again, not quite as silly as shared animosity, so it's not too high on this list.

Quote
Junkyo Bell (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=80280)

Another sac outlet.  Normally a terrible card this actually is pretty solid in prossh.  Although...I wish it was "sac after combat" not "sac at end of turn".

Quote
Varolz, the Scar-striped

Generically good sac outlet, but doesn't have any particularly interesting interactions with this deck.

Quote
Slate of Ancestry (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=159501)

Obviously great interactions with this deck.  I've played it when borrowing other EDH decks and it's OP as fuck.  Better in decks where there isn't a lot of other card draw and you end up with an empty hand, though, which isn't so much the case for Prossh.  (It happens often enough that Fecundity puts like...20 cards in my hand, and I need to figure out what to do with them).  Bottom line is that I'm having trouble getitng excited about yet more card draw that would require me to do yet more thinking about how to discard down to 7 cards.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 30, 2013, 09:16:24 AM
So...I'm looking at adding two 6 cost things (and my general is 6 cost, so this is already iffy).  What do I cut?

Options I see in the 5-6 mana range:

Sek'Kuar Deathkeeper (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376488)

This card is pretty awful in the deck.  Lots of tokens die.  Not that many non-tokens die.  That said, it does cost 5.

Blood Rites (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376267)

I am adding two sac outlets; maybe that makes it ok to finally cut one sac outlet.

Inferno Titan (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376371)

Great card, but just not in-theme.  If I had even one way to give it deathtouch, then maybe.  But it's not that interesting in the deck.  Probably the highest power in this list, but I don't mind lowering power level a bit.

Rough // Tumble (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376475&part=Rough)

You know, I initially thought sweepers would be amazing in this deck, because you're saccing all your stuff anyway, and that's....not really the case.  BUT sometimes they can pull you out of a nasty situation.

That said, this one is pretty painful.  The ground one will generally only kill my tokens.  The air one often enough only kills my air units.  Of course, the flip side of this is that if/when Prossh does get stolen, killing it with this is one of the few ways I have to get it back.  I dunno, cutting sweepers seems iffy; maybe I should swap it out with a different sweeper though.  Not sure what; Kagemaro, first to suffer? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=74016)

Capricious Efreet (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376276)

It is kinda neat in this deck, since there will usually be at least two things you want to blow up of your opponents, and usually at least one thing you wouldn't mind losing.




Current substitutions: removed Inferno Titan and Blood Rites (For Hellion Eruption and Dragon Broodmother).  I feel a bit odd about this, since Inferno Titan is one of the reasons I picked up the deck (I've never owned a titan before).  But no question it's not really in theme, and doesn't really have any synergies.  I'm sure eventually I'll find a home for it.



EDIT:

thinking about possible substitutions for a better sweeper.  There's at least three cards in this deck I can think of that look for creatures or dig creatures out of the graveyard, so I was looking for what my options were (other than Kagemaro, First to Suffer).  Happened across Hythonia the Cruel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373673)--oh hey, I actually own one of those--got it in the one Theros draft I did.  It's another 6 drop, which is x_x but I don't have to proxy it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 04, 2013, 06:28:44 AM
Ok, couple more changes

Essence of the Wild (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=254133)

This has a funny interaction with prossh, since his tokens are created on casting not on entering the battlefield, which means you still get them.

Spawning Pit (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=26732)

Wanted to break up the infinite combo.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 05, 2013, 03:26:50 PM
Starcraft 2: so...attempting to fend off void rays as zerg: spore crawlers are extremely dubious as choices.

Comparing a spore crawler to a hydralisk:

Spores have 17 DPS
Hydras have 14.5 DPS

Spores have 400 HP and 1 armor, compared to Hydras with 80 HP, but...Void Ray damage almost triples against armored targets when they align.  So...factoring that out, it's more like 160 HP to 80 HP.

As you might expect, anywhere hydras are good, queens are better.  With an effective HP of 210.  Their DPS is quite a bit lower (9), but on the other hand, they have transfuse.

So...I guess the moral is that spores aren't completely awful--they are marginally more cost efficient than a hydra still.  But that I shouldn't do what I did last night and believe myself safe when I have six spores against four void rays.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 01, 2014, 03:55:42 AM
MtG

So...I am making an important sub-out for Prossh:

Gaea's Cradle is out.  By far the most complained about card, and at first I argued it was ok (since I'd had a few games where it tapped for nothing) but I had a few games in a row where a Cradle topdeck resulted in me just winning the game, and it's been warping the meta, with everyone adding land destruction (and then sometimes hitting each other when I don't have cradle) and...yeah.

Replace with Xenagos, The Reveler (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373502).  Xenagos if left unchecked is probably more scary, since previously I would be limited on black and red mana, but with Xenagos I would only be limited on black mana.  However, it doesn't have the "black lotus" effect that cradle had, where I topdeck it, and suddenly tap for 7.  And it's much more killable.

Also adding Phyrexian Tower (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=10677) as a token really cool land.  I had previously avoided putting sac effects on lands, because I wanted to avoid making one of those decks with no answers whatsoever.  But winning the game in one turn seems like it's the much larger balance issue than the deck having resilience.  Also, I haven't really seen it in decklists (online or controlled by my coworkers) whereas High Market (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=287336) is everywhere in EDH, and I think Tower is actually quite a bit better than high market.



In the mean time, I got a second precon for christmas (Marath) so a few cards left Prossh because Marath wanted them (Silklash Spider, Terramorphic Expanse, and...I had already cut it from Prossh, but Inferno Titan finally found a home).





Marath (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376404)

ok, onto the main event.

My first thought with this commander was to run it with nothing but land.  Or...nothing but ramp and land.  Then I thought about what might make it better, and came up with deathtouch.  Every ping destroys your creature :D.  Ok, so all five deathtouch cards in green/white/red went in

Basilisk Collar
Bow of Nylea
Gorgon Flail
Nightshade Peddler
Quietus Spike

As well as Sword of Kaldra (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48583) (yep, doesn't say combat damage XD) and Neko-Te (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=74578).

I could have added a bunch of "search your library for equipment" cards, but mmm...I'm following my friend's policy of not including tutors in EDH decks so that games don't always feel the same.  Instead I added...

Sun Titan (most of these cost 3; good odds I can grab one)

And just for the hell of it, Grafted Exoskeleton (infect.  Better used against players.  In fact, it might be kind-of mean.  We'll see).


So...what else should go into the deck?  My next thought was "I finally can find a home for the Inferno Titan I took out of the other deck", and then just turned this into a bunch of pingers that happen to be silly with deathtouch.

Quick note: pingers I'm NOT adding.

Goblin Sharpshooter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376350) (so...with deathtouch, anything that doesn't have hexproof instantly dies?  Ew.  Also, I'd be stealing it from Prossh where it is actually fun).
Balefire Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=230774) (Yeah...I kind-of hate playing against this card, and it doesn't need my help.  Jerk).

So...after much culling the list became...

Inferno Titan
Barbie Enraged (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366283) (I still had in my head that this would be a mostly lands and ramp deck, and this gets me land)
Fire Ants (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=21163) (yeah, you know, I don't want this to turn into a "everyone starts sideboarding in tons of hexproof" so...I focused on cards that ignore hexproof.
Ronin Cliffrider[url=http://see above
[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=6117]Scalding Salamander] see above
[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=6117]Scalding Salamander (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=74122) see above
Scattershot Archer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=185828) (see above)
Silklash Spider (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376499) (see above)
Scourge of Kher Ridges (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=136161) (see above)
Magmatic Force (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=228241) Well I'm including Inferno Titan, which will generally ping 3 things a turn, when this will usually ping 4, so...as far as targeters go it's not bad.  Also, silly if it gets infect.


So....next up, this is a commander that uses +1/+1 counters; and obviously there's stuff that interacts with that like doubling season.  Maybe I should throw in some of those interactions?

Pre-emptively cut:

Forgotten Ancient (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220583) it's good.  I was just trying to cut down on the number of cards I proxied, because the number was getting quite high, and it excited me less than the other +1/+1 counter interactions.
All Doubling Season variants.  Already have one in Prossh, and it's the crappy global one, and every time I play it I seem to end up with a pretty gamebreaking board state.  Pretty sure Marath benefits from it way more than Prossh.
Gavony Township.  Just kind of generically good--not something that's splashy and easy to deal with.  Also, pushes the deck more towards being a token deck than a pinging deck, which is not my intent.
Mayael Aria (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=180620) Something tells me a 20 power creature wouldn't be that hard to get.

Included:

Archangel of Thune (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370627) So....like...what's really funny is if you give Marath lifelink and then start pinging stuff.  Pay 1 mana, take a counter off of Marath, put a +1/+1 counter on every creature, lololol.  Some assembly required; I intentionally left in most of the lifegain cards from the precon for the silly interactions here, though.
 Kinda like the above, except no assembly required whatsoever.  Might be too good?
[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370766]Kalonian Hydra (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=276198).  Has a gigantic target painted on its head, but it's quite funny; also not too hard to deal with.


Additionally, Persist is something else that combines quite well with +1/+1 counters.

Preemptively Cut:

Kitchen Finks.  Kind of just generically good.  But also not that exciting without sac outlets.  (And this deck doesn't have sac outlets.  It can ping its own creatures, but that generally requires, say, 2 mana, and there's actually better lifegain sources for that--more on that later

Included:
Kithkin Spellduster (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=152096): The deck is pretty good at destroying creatures, so I had my eye out for destroying any non-creature stuff, and this fits the bill.
Woodfall Primus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370406): Same here.  I don't feel great about including this one, since it's one of those stupidly good EDH cards that serious players use to blow up lands, and I'm channeling my inner hipster right now, but like...it fills a niche.
Twilight Shepherd (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=197034): This, on the other hand, I'm looking forward to trying out.  Saves equipment if someone plays a big destroy-everything sweeper.




Landfall:

Was originally going to be a big theme, because it was going to be an almost all land deck.  Not so much in the end.  I still kept all four landfall cards in the precon, though.  Would have added [http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=197160]Admonition Angel[/url] if I was taking this theme seriously, but as-is I'm trying to keep the number of cards I proxy down, and really taking landfall seriously would involve adding more fetchlands and...nahh.


Damage triggers:

All these mass pingers let me ping my own creatures too.  Had two cards lined up for this...
Vigor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=140227)
Sprouting Phytohydra (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=111220)

Ended up preemptively cutting phytohydra.  It's only really funny with Fire Ants (a lot of the other mass pingers only hit enemy creatures or deal 2 damage).  And...they all have defender, which like...this deck honestly doesn't have a problem producing blockers, it's one of the commander's abilities... >_>


Miscellaneous:
Aura Shards (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247184): love the card, great with the commander.
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=253641) So........mostly I wanted some kind of populate, because technically Marath doesn't have to make 1/1 tokens, he can make like...7/7 tokens.  And Trostani is funny with Archangel of Thrune (better in this deck than Kitchen Finks at gaining life too).




So...my original plan was to have like...20 ramp cards, but I decided that might be really powerful (and also more cards than I wanted to proxy right now.  So...kept as much of the precon as I could (mostly utility cards like hull breach).  And...paired it down to just six added ramp cards...

Rampant Growth (had one; not the best card, but whatever, put it in.  2CMC ramp cards are valuable in this deck, because I can play them before I drop Marath).
Mirari's Wake (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338455): I was originally going to have a lot of land doubling cards, but if I'm going to include just one, this is the ridiculously obvious choice.
Boundless Realms (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249667): (I still have four landfall cards in the deck just from the precon, so...this is still potentially quite funny).
Khalni Heart Expedition (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=186320): 2CMC ramp spell, also moar landfall!!1  And something Sun Titan can get back.
Gyre Sage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366289): so...the commander can make this tap for a lot of mana.  Also 2CMC ramp spell.
Yavimaya Elder (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247524): I totally only included this over arguably more synergistic cards because it does really funny things with Sun Titan.  That'll happen once every like...20 games, but still >_>.  Whatever, not like the card is bad....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 23, 2014, 08:33:58 AM
Hm, apparently this has become a topic I post in to do EDH stuff >_>  (I really should say something about Hearthstone at some point, but for now EDH).


So...someone jokingly said "see you cats later" and I was like "oh, cats huh?  So...I should make a cat deck? :D"  And since I'm proxying anyway, it doesn't really hurt to throw together a silly deck I might only use a few times.

Raksha Golden Cub (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=73569), let's go.

First thing I noticed: in mono-white there just aren't that many good cats.  Getting to, say, 40 different cats...it can be done, but it gets pretty ugly.  The solution was to make a second theme; it wasn't just a cat deck, it was also an equipment deck--which fits pretty naturally.  Equipment is needed to turn on  Raksha anyway, and a number of cats have special interactions with equipment.

Second thing I noticed: this was looking a little like my coworker's Jor-Kadeen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=227508) equipment deck (which also plays a bunch of equipment and then ends up pumping a bunch of small creatures when it is turned on).  How am I going to make this deck feel different from his deck?  The solution I came up with was to focus on commander damage--here's the trick:

Equip Raksha with, say, three swords, and he gets +2/+2 and double strike from the cat pump, and +6/+6 from the swords, which overall is 11/12 double strike--22 commander damage (fatal).  Jor-Kadeen in the same scenario is 14/10, not killing in one swing.

So...the trick is going to be looking for equipment that gives:

1. Evasion
2. Gets Raksha to exactly +6 power

Straight off the bat, I will be running all five swords, just for the evasion, but also because they are good.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209280
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214070
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370471
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370455
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214368

Which pushes me towards pump values of +2 or +4 (to make it easier to add up to a total of +6).  For this reason, I'm not really interested in Honor of the pure (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233237) (+1/+1?  Lame), but I am interested in Light From Within (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=151139) (gives +2/+2).

Next up, equipment that can easily give +6 on its own is an obvious include so...

Sigil of Distinction (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=174867)
Strata Scythe (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=207870)
Hedron Matrix (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193536)
Argentum Armor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=217967)

But notably, I'm NOT including +5 options like Sword of Kaldra (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48583), and Inquisitor's Flail (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=222196)

I'm also looking for consistency, so Pennon Blade (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193528), and Bonehoard (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214040)?  Empyral Plate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=49430)? Cutting those.

Also an obvious evasion include:

Whispersilk Cloak (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271198)

The other evasion options are mostly much less exciting.  Nonbasic landwalk with no hexproof for about the same cost as Whispersilk Cloak; yeah, whatever.  Fleetfeather Sandals (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373501) are interesting to me due to the haste, although there is already an obvious haste include.

Lightning Greaves (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247337)

There are some nice tramples however--but notably if trample is your only form of evasion, suddenly the exact mathematics of dealing 22 commander damage no longer works.  Sword of Vengeance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205044) is quite good in a vacuum, although...on Raksha, the vigilance and the first strike don't do anything, so it's only for +2/+0, trample, and haste, which is less exciting.  O-Naginata (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=74146) is pretty efficient...although unexciting; it probably makes the deck better because of the low cost, but better is not always the point of EDH.  The trample I do know I want is:

Loxodon Warhammer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243448)

Notably, when you have both lifelink and doublestrike, you can often lose the second strike's worth of lifegain...but not if you have trample as well.  The synergy is just very nice.

Rounding off with some +4 and +2 cards that just happen to be very nice...

+4
Batterskull (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233055)
Angelic Destiny (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220230) (technically not equipment, but it's evasion and +4, so with just about any equip on top of it, it's enough)
Umezawa's Jitte (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=81979) (I actually own one of these)

+2
Konda's Banner (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=76637) (obvious include.  Lots of cat legends).

And...originally I had Champion's Helm (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233200) here too, but...not super excited about this one; it could be bonesplitter instead, or something that gives evasion.  Low equip costs are valuable, especially with so much equipment.  I dunno, though, the more I look at this the less I like it; it's just a +2 with no evasion.  Hexproof, too, but I already have two ways to give that, and swords that grant protection.  Think I want a second haste instead.  And...I'm thinking Fleetfeather Sandals over Sword of Vengeance--cheaper equip.  Flying over allows for the precision 22 commander damage plan better than trample.  Does a better job of bypassing a Darksteel Colossus, which you can't just get past with proteciton from a colour.

Fleetfeather Sandals (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373501)

Last but not least, It's an equipment deck, it has a tutor package for equipment.  Might as well throw in some removal equipment.

Manriki-Gusari (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=74158) (extremely relevant in the local playgroup.  There's at least two equipment focused decks; three counting the Marath deck I made).
Heartseeker (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=51074) (bonus: it happens to give +2 attack)

19 Equipment.



CATS

Ok, well cats are divided into a couple of categories.

Stupidly good or just very interesting cards (ofc they go in):

Leonin Shikari (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48579)
Brimaz (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=378377)
Kemba (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=215091)
Leonin Abunas (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220527)
Set's Tiger (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=130347)
Taj-Nar Swordsmith (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=46079)
Felidar Sovreign (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=185743) (Arguably too good in a format where your life total starts at 40, but screw it, it's a cat deck; wouldn't include him otherwise)
Jareth (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=39861)
Spirit of the Hearth (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=151169)
Mirror Entity (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376409)
White Sun's Zenith (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=221555)
Ajani, Caller of the Pride (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370680) (pretty bad, actually, but the ultimate is hillarious with 40 life so...)

And past that, what I'm looking for is cats that carry equipment well.  Evasion, double strike, lifelink, vigilance--these are the primary categories I'm looking for.

Not really feeling the 1-drops.  Savannah lion is a good card, but it doesn't do anything special with equipment.  1/1 lifelink for 1 is kind-of tempting, but it's awful without equipment.  So...starting at 2...

Ajani's Pridemate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376241) (Plenty of lifegain in the deck; could get big)
Ajani's Sunstriker (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=259715) (Lifelink)

Hmm...Leonin Arbiter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209287) is a good card, but doesn't do anything special with equipment.

Leonin Skyhunter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243424) (flying)
Lost Leonin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218053) (infect)
Sunspear Shikari (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209008) (lifelink)
Jamuraan Lion (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=3717) (Forces damage through; fits the theme of the deck super well, actually)
Skyhunter Prowler (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=132102) (flying and vigilance?  Sign me up!)
Skyhunter Skirmisher (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=129513) (flying and doublestrike?  Cool!)


For cards I'm not running...Not super keen on all the cats that must be equipped to do stuff; I'm obviously running one, but not lots; equipment needs to go to Kemba.  Leonin Squire (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=72722) is really interesting; too bad I'm not really running 1 CMC artifacts.  Leonin Battlemage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=44307) is cool because it pumps and thus helps the theme that way.  Actually sure...I orignally had Whitemane Lion (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=270859) but it maybe saves a creature; not sure how good this will be if the creature is heavily equipped, and since equip is sorcery speed, I don't think this deck wants to leave mana open very often.  The return isn't even that useful since I have like...maybe two enters the battlefield triggers.

Leonin Battlemage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=44307)

And then there's like Jhovall Queen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19654[/url) (ehh, I have bigger things to do at 6 mana), and Kemba's Legion (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214056) (it's like Jhovall Queen, but more expensive for less toughness!)

21 cats (plus Raksha for 22)



And then some just generally good cards.

Interacting with equipment:

Stonehewer Giant (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370515)
Stoneforge Mystic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=198383)
Puresteel Paladin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=227504)
Mirran Crusader (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=213802) (not a cat, but I can't imagine a scenario where I'll be too sad about this; even if Raksha is equipped, I'd probably still play a 1/1 cat with protection from two colours, so...yeah).
Prototype Portal (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209009) (yes, having four sword of fire and ices on the battlefield sounds hillarious).

Not running: Steelshaper Apprentice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=49078), Steelshaper's Gift (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=51078).  Obviously I am breaking my normal "no tutors" rule in this deck (because it's a joke deck; I'm also doing things I try to avoid in other decks like kill in one swing).  But...I still don't want to run tons of them.  And these two are less exciting.  Also not running Sun Titan (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373379).  Have it in another deck where it rescues equipment, so...yeah, variety.

Anthem effects:

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214352) (Would I run this if it said "cats you control get +2/+2?  Hell yes I would).

Not running Light from Within (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=151139).  Initially I was planning on it, since it's another +2 for Raksha, but in the event of getting, say, 40 2/2 cat tokens, it pumps none of them, which would be such a letdown when it happens.  Also not running Door of Destinies (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370699).  I'm just looking at it, and on paper it looks dull.  Like...it'd either be "omg, your cats have +9/+9, game over :(".  Or it would be a completely useless card; topdeck it late in the game, and then never draw another cat, which isn't that unlikely since they're only 20% of the deck.

Removal:

Return to Dust
Austere Command
Mass Calcify
Oblivion Ring  (yeah, not even going to bother linking these)
Dispatch (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218072)
Dispense Justice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209015)

And I'm thinking about Condemn (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373407), but it's kind-of mean due to killing generals.  I want to restrict the meanness/stupidness of this deck to cats and equipment.  EDIT: and prototype portal >_>

Ramp/card draw (the deck needs a lot of mana--7 to cast the general; lots of equip costs)

Sol Ring (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376508)
Thran Dynamo (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373331)
Land Tax (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201153)
Weathered Wayfarer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=83311)
Mox Opal (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=208248) (Totally wouldn't bother with this, except I actually own one)
Dreamstone Hedron (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247395) (Wasn't going to run this, since it doesn't help run out the general, but then I thought about how silly it is with Prototype Portal)
Mind's Eye (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338452) (monowhite just doesn't have much card draw--my coworker warned me about this when I said I was thinking about making a cat deck.  So...straight up ridiculous card draw, sure).

Not running Gift of Estates (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=84504), Knight of the White Orchid (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243423), Solemn Simulacrum (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=236907).  Mostly I need a lot of bang out of the ramp because so much of the deck is cats and swords.  So...I'm looking for +3 mana generally.  Kind-of tempted to sub in Gift of Estates for something; I just worry about the scenario where I have both land tax and gift, and then gift becomes useless.  Although...I guess if I have Land Tax and it's triggering, then I'm home-free, so...replace Gilded Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373335) with Gift of Estaates then?

Gift of Estates (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=84504)

Support cards: 20

That leaves...39 lands (but there's a mox, so effectively 40).  Land choices...

Emeria, the Sky Ruin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=190414)
Mutavault (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370733)
Cavern of Souls (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=278058)

Are the cat bonus and/or "here's your bonus for running monocolour" lands.  So those.  I could do more here (Scrying sheets (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=121204) and snow-covered plains!)  But fuck it, I have regular plains, I don't have those fancy snow-covered plains.  (Actually, I'm not sure my coworkers really play enough counterspells to make me really want to proxy Cavern of Souls when I can use a non-proxied plains instead).

EDIT: for land, ended up not printing Cavern of Souls (would have required an extra page of printing)

Ended up printing:

Emeria, the Sky Ruin
Mutavault
Temple of the False God
Rogue's Passage
Daru Encampment

That's 5, so...34 plains.


EDIT: after initial testing (just goldfishes)...turning on metalcraft is not automatic.  Deck could really use an Ancient Den (partially for thematic reasons--Raksha's home, but partially so that it can be searched up with Weathered Wayfarer).

Not getting equipment and thus not being able to turn on Kemba or Raksha is a thing that has happened.  I figured with 18 equipment, 3 more ways to search it up, this would be a nonissue.  Guess it's about as likely as missing one colour in a two-colour deck, which happens.




EDIT

So apparently I forgot Leonin Relic-Warder (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=222860) somehow.  That goes in.

I'm also looking at Umbral Mantle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=153317), which does two things.  First, with Stonehewer Giant it fetches multiple equipment in one turn.  Second, it's a 0 cost equip, which matters for Raksha--that moment when I hit 7, play Raksha and...nothing happens because I can't equip is a bit of a letdown.  But with this, immediate +2/+2 and double-strike for the other cats.

Cutting for these...probably Leonin Battlemage (yeah, ok it fits the theme, but in practice every time I've had it in my hand, I don't play it because turn 4/5/6 are spent equipping swords, turning on metalcraft.  Just a bad place on the curve.

And...maybe swap a 2 drop for the 2 drop.  Leonin Skyhunter, perhaps, because I have three other flying, and all of them have a second ability? (doublestrike, vigilance, and making me untargetable).  I could see an argument for Sunspear Shikari, but it sounds like my friend has one of those he'll give me, and I'll take a real card over a proxy.  Ajani's Pridemate is probably the actual worst card in this slot, but it will occasionally get enormous, so I'm tempted to leave it in.


If I am adding Umbral Mantle, it's handy to have ways to get Raksha tapped (stupid vigilance...).  Honor-Worn Shaku (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=77143) is a thought as a mana rock; two of my legends have vigilance.  Paradise Mantle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370448) might be a better choice, though, just because being an equipment matters in this deck, especially being an equipment with low mana cost.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 27, 2014, 06:28:17 AM
Hearthstone

So...I was somewhat inspired by Day 9 doing this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jR8FLwLMV0

And apparently Kripp has done something similar, but more serious:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTuThI6vXa0


The idea of these decks is to fill your opponent's hand up to 10, and then bounce stuff which causes the card to be destroyed.  ...And they're terrible against aggro.

But I was thinking recently not about bounce shenanigans, but about a different card: Divine Favor.  Draw Cards until you have an equal number of cards in hand to your opponent.  This is a card that isn't considered that spectacular, but which I find myself getting blown out by a lot.  (But isn't that great when I play it, since my curve tends to be like...Harvest Golem, Chillwind Yetti, Azure Drake, Argent Commander).  Now, combining Divine Favor with an aggressive deck is something that is done.  But combining it with an aggressive deck that uses some of the above shenanigans to fill the opponent's hand?  That sounds new.  Namely:

2x Coldlight Oracle
1x King Mukla

(And probably not running Lorewalker Cho--not aggressive enough).

Obviously some kind of aggressive deck with a lot of low cost stuff seems ideal.  Since Coldlight Oracle is already in the deck, this pushes me in the direction of Murlocs.

15x other Murlocs

Obviously there's also

2x Divine Favour

And fill the rest out with aggressive cards:

2x Blessing of Might
2x Abusive Seargeant
2x Argent Protector
2x Ironbeak Owl
2x Knife Juggler

Or maybe drop one of these for a Truesilver Champion or a Leeroy Jenkins or whatever.  (Yeah, Truesilver is probably better than Blessing of Might).

Granted, I'm not likely to actually put this deck together.  I'm very unlikely to craft King Mukla.  But it's a fun idea.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 03, 2014, 02:57:37 AM
So...messing around with priest.  I have two inspirations right now.  One is an interesting deck I saw on Reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/1yujlg/just_hit_legendary_with_an_unusual_priest/

Which basically runs a bunch of goodstuff, and doesn't run many spells at all.  The reason I like this is that the priest hero power is very very good, but when I run all the "mandatory" priest spells, sometimes I find myself with a hand full of spells and that's really terrible.  I don't really think I have the cards to put together this exact decklist though, so...dunno.


The other is starting from a free deck that apparently went almost undefeated up to decenly high rank, with the plan of playing Northshire Cleric on the same turn as an AoE healing spell (either Holy Nova or Darkscale Healer) to get crazy card draw.

http://www.hearthhead.com/deck=25/doctor-draw-(basic-only,-by-top-50-in-north-america-for-constructed-pre-wipe)

Which...I like the idea, but I want to modify the deck and play more ways to get damaged; wild pyromancer, Injured blademaster.

EDIT: so the problem with wild pyromancer is that sometimes I don't want to play my spells, even simple stuff like Power Word Shield.  I still think it's great in a darkscale healer deck.

EDIT2: in fact, I'm really not sure how I feel about wild pyromancer; the idea of the deck is to take control of the board (at which point healing becomes an insane hero power), and Wild Pyromancer is not that great when you have control of the board.  On the flip side, it can be pretty good at gaining control of the board.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 04, 2014, 09:53:35 AM
Mmm...so tried some more with the normal suite of priest cards (shadow word pain, shadow word death, 1x shadow madness since I have it, wild pyromancer and darkscale healer) and...really embarassing performances in general; like...losing record at rank 20.  dropped most of the spells other than the ones kept in the low spell deck (power word shield, holy smite, holy nova, mind control), and dropped 2x pyromancer as well (kept 1x Darkscale Healer because I do think the mass heal potential is cool).  Instantly won two in a row rather comfortably.


In other metagame news, this deck (the one he's facing) is pretty hillarious:

http://www.twitch.tv/tidesoftime/b/507380781?t=30h12m35s

Plays Druid.

Turn 1: Innervate, Alarm-o-bot
Turn 2: Coin, Alarm-o-bot
Turn 3: Alarm-o-bot

Seems to be a somewhat serious deck, actually.  The idea is that Alarm-o-bot generally just dies, because it can be attacked by creatures.  And it's not really worth setting up taunts to protect it, because by that point it doesn't save you that much mana anyway.  On turn 1, however, there's not that much some decks can do.

Overall I think it has some serious weaknesses.  Against aggro it's likely to only bring down one creature before they can kill it.  (or none if you're going second, and they had any turn 1 play followed up by a charge).  A number of removal spells just kill it--frostbolt, wrath, lightning bolt, Fiery War Axe, coin Eviscerate, shadow word: pain, earthshock, soulfire.

That said, it's still interesting.  A few notes:

Obviously you want expensive creatures with this thing, but you don't need to have a horrible curve.  you CAN use spells (and probably want to; certainly Wrath is what you want to cast if they play a 3/2).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 08, 2014, 05:53:12 PM
So...I showed my friend the large finite combo deck, and he's telling me now that I should try and make an EDH deck that makes token copies of doubling season.

So...a few notes:

1. I'll be running more than 3 land, obviously.
2. I'll not be going for the turn 1 kill; so no Show and Tell into Omniscience; just cast things normally.
3. I don't really need layers; put a token copy of doubling season into play 3 times -> 2059 5/5 creatures in play; that's fine.
4. I do need redundancy, though.  Search effects, multiple effects that do the same thing.
5. I need to be really careful that my cards don't just kill my opponents through other means.  Ex: the following card would be great if it copied doubling season: http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369001, but it could also copy someone else's darksteel colossus much more easily.

So anyway...commander I think I need to take a 5 colour commander?  Green is non-negotiable I think.  Playing without white would suck--Enduring Ideal is one of the best ways to ensure I actually follow through on the plan.  Opalescence is one of the only cards that lets me put things like Followed Footsteps and Splinter Twin onto Doubling Season (because Opalescence says "non-aura" whereas something like march of the machines does not).  Also, populate is a great mechanic when I'm trying to make a deck that doesn't steal opponent's stuff.

So...ok, green white.  This is great, green white has potential commanders that make copies of tokens like Trostani and Rhys the Redeemed.  Why not go with green white?  Well...because the colour combo has a very hard time getting the first token to use populate on.  You basically need Opalessence, and then also one of Minion Reflector, Dual Nature, or Mimic Vat (and Mimic Vat is iffy because it can steal opponent's stuff).  Technically Enduring Ideal can still work here, but leans heavily on Dual Nature, and Dual Nature has all sorts of ways to ruin the fun.

Fortunately, red and blue have several ways to make a token copy of creatures already in play, which matters because it doesn't have to enter the battlefield as a creature, which is quite a bit harder to pull off.

Caclking Counterpart (blue) - only your creatures; perfect
Dance of Many (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff--probably avoid.  Although...the fact that this makes tokens and is searchable through Enduring Ideal makes it tempting.
Fated Infatuation (blue) - only copy your creatures; perfect
Fellhide Spiritbinder (red) - can copy opponent's stuff temporarily.  Populated tokens do not have haste or "exile me at end of turn".
Followed Footsteps (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff, but gives them warning; I dunno, might want to make an exception for this one.
Heat Shimmer (red) - can copy oppoent's stuff.  Populated tokens have haste and get exiled at the end of turn.  hmm.
Infinite Reflection (blue) - is interesting, as long as you can get token versions of everything you need like opalescence.  I think it might be a bit unweildy, though.
Kiki-Jiki (red) - can only copy your stuff.  Populated tokens have haste but do not get exiled.
Progenitor Mimic (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff.  Probably not, although the repeated copy is tempting.  Notably, still works even if it stops being a creature.
Riku of Two Reflections (blue red) - is great, but requires Opalescence in play or similar.
Rite of Replication (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff.  Probably not.
Spitting Image (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff.  probably not--although the repeated copy is tempting.
Splinter Twin (red) - can only copy your stuff.  Populated tokens have haste but do not get exiled.  The one downside of this is that if you make Doubling Season temporarily a creature, Splinter Twin will fall off when it stops being a creature.
Stolen Identity (blue) - can copy opponent's stuff.  Probably not, although repeated copy is tempting.
Tempt with Reflections (blue) - Who else wants some Doubling Seasons? :D  This actually works brilliantly, since they come in as three different timed events, so can each increase the haul of the previous one (including the opponents if you use Primal Vigor)


Ok, so going with only blue gives
1. Cackling Counterpart
2. Fated Infatuation
3. Tempt With Reflections
4. Probably a few things that can copy opponent's stuff like Followed Footsteps, maybe Dance of Many.

Going with only red gives
1. Kiki-Jiki
2. Splinter Twin
3/4. Maybe something that can copy opponent's stuff would be ok, just because it's temporary

Hm, well, green/white/red or green/white/blue look possible.  More likely green/white/blue.  Is there a general that even does anything with this colour combo?

Derevi Empyral Tactician can untap stuff.  This would be a lot cooler if kiki-jiki or splinter twin could be in the deck; I guess there's still going to be some support cards like Trostani and Liquimetal coating that tap.  More to the point, untapping lands is pretty cool.

Angus Mackenzie can fog forever, which I guess gives time to set up.  Sounds obnoxious though.

Ragnar can protect combo pieces.

Roon of the Hidden Realm combos...very badly with Dual Nature, and decently with Minion Reflector.  Although...honestly Minion Reflector isn't spectacular here, since it is worded such that the tokens die, and any copies of the tokens also die.



Hmm...none of these really combo much at all.  I doubt I'm going to want to leave 3 mana open to be defensive.  Derevi seems like the best of these; Llanowar Elf general, gogo, and occasionally combo-relevant.  Toss in some lands that tap for 2.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2014, 05:11:44 AM
So...the rest of the deck.

A lot of the key cards in the deck are enchantments.  Enchantment synergies

Zur the Enchanter - (can't, requires black)
Verduan Enchantress
Treasury Thrull - (can't, requires black)
Silent Sentinel
Mesa Enchantress
Meletis Astronomer - (probably not--not enough ways to trigger heroic)
Femeref Enchantress
Enchantress' Presence
Argothian Enchantress

6 cards.  Probably want all of these.

Auramancer/Monk Idealist - maybe
Hana, Ship's Navigator -- definitely-there will be a decent number of artifacts, too, and untaps are handy.
Dowsing Shaman - Worse Hana, maybe
Open the Vaults - yes
Replenish - yes

at least 3 cards

Academy Rector - yes
Enduring Ideal - yes
Enlightened Tutor - yes
Idyllic Tutor - yes
Lost Auramancers - maybe
Plea for Guidance - actually...probably
Sterling Grove - yes
Wild Research - (sadly red)

At least 5, maybe 6-7.


So...there aren't that many ways to turn enchantments into creatures (only one) but there's a number of ways to turn anything into an artifact, and then turn artifacts into creatures.

Argent Mutation - hm maybe
Karn Silver Golem - obv
Karn's Touch - hmm...doesn't draw like Argent mutation
Liquimetal Coating - sure
Memnarch - too much potential to be mean, probably
Sydri, Galvanic Genius - (black)
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas - (black)
Titania's Song - probably--either sac the Titania, or don't have a global make everything artifacts effect, and copies will not be artifacts
Toymaker - Ugh, paying cards, I dunno.
Transmogrifying Licid - probably not--it has enchant creature instead of enchant permanent.  Unless there's a global effect that makes artifacts into creatures this doesn't do much.
Xenic Poltergeist = (black--but notably keeps it a creature until your next turn, so lasts long enough for Followed Footsteps)
Animate Artifact - decent, although most of the ways to make things into artifacts are temporary, so it will fall off
Mycosynth Lattice - good
March of the Machines - good --although one note is that Mycosynth Lattice + march makes everyone lose all their lands, which is meaner than I want to go with this deck.

Ok, how many of each enabler do I have...

To make enchantments into artifacts I have Liquimetal Coating, Argent Mutation, Mycosynth Lattice, and Memnarch.  If I am going to run a "make enchantments into artifacts theme" I think I probably need all four, although ugh, really don't want to run Memnarch...actually I guess Memnarch might be ok because it's legendary, so I can't just make five token memnarchs and start attacking with them.  The stealing is problematic, though, for sure.  Oh, noteworthy, though, we can run Treasure Mage which helps finding the Mycosynth Lattice

To make artifacts into creatures...March of the Machines, Karn, I guess Titania's Song although it's really screwy with mycosynth lattice, and then oddly we're really wanting black here.  Animate Artifact is an enchantment so interacts with that whole theme.  And then sure, Karn's Touch.


Enchanted Evening is intriguing, but I don't think it really does much.  Enchantments need to be creatures, but Artifacts don't really, so I can't imagine I'd be too sad with Opalescence out.


I actually am intrigued by the idea of Mirror Gallery.  The card I'd really like to use it with is Kiki-Jiki, which sadly can't go in the 3 colour version, but it's rarely a dead card since it can be used with the general, and scales rather ridiculously if I'm sticking with Derevi (two Derevi = four untaps per attack; three Derevi = nine untaps per attack).



Some pump is a decent idea, to save lands from the march of the machines + mycosynth lattice.

Angelic Shield has combo potential...but potentially more combo potential than I want?  Hmm...pretty sure there's ways it could go infinite by bouncing itself, but it would take a lot of cards.

Collective Blessing is probably overkill.

Gaea's Blessing/Glorious Anthem are fine.

Leyline of Vitality is great.

Mirari's Wake...oh well yes, that looks good in this deck due to Derevi untapping lands.

Spear of Heliod gives the deck some decent defence.  Definitely picking this over glorious anthem given the choice.

Spidersilk Armor...not that exciting.

I think the ones to take are...Angelic Shield if I'm not too bothered about the fact that it probably goes infinite with the right card combo (maybe I should cut Ashnod's Altar?  Without that, I don't think it can go infinite).  The bounce is a fairly relevant defensive play.  Maybe Leyline of Vitality--I won't have many creatures at all if I'm not winning; mostly a cushon if I do suddenly get 2000 token copies of doubling season.  Mirari's Wake is good regardless of my creature situation, of course.  Spear of Heliod is also ok even without many creatures online.

Artifact searching, let's see.

Fabricate is ok.
Treasure Mage can be copied, but it only has one target anyway, so Fabricate may be better.  Can search Karn or Mycosynth Lattice; that's probably better.
Tezzeret the Seeker can't search up mycosynth Lattice, but the ult does offer an alternative way to make artifacts into creatures.  Don't like it too much, though; there won't be much to untap, and a lot of the other stuff you'd want to search for costs 3-5, so searching for two things is unlikely.  Also, if you do ult with Mycosynth Lattice out, probably you just attack with a bunch of 5/5 lands and win, which defeats the purpose.

What else...transmute cards exist; I think transmuting for 4 would be really good in this deck.  Opalescence, March of the Machines, and one of the Doubling Season variants are all 4 cmc.  So...let's see...the transmutes at CMC 4 are...black/blue, and mono black.  :(  Why are there so many random black cards I'm finding I want??

Ok, let's see...what other random searches are there.

Supply/Demand exists, but doesn't search for a whole lot of key components.

Gifts Ungiven is.......banned in commander!  okie dokie then

Long Term Plans might be ok here.  Well...I dunno, it's pretty terrible as a card.

Mormor Smig Simic Visionary might be ok here, since some parts of the combo are creatures, and it can trigger off of the commander.  I guess run Treasure Mage if I'm going this route.

Sovreigns of Lost Alara...Well it can search up Followed Footsteps....

Wargate: OMFG yes, forgot about this card.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2014, 07:21:56 AM
The rest of the cards...mana and card draw are just always a good idea.  Sticking with enchantments because there's the enchantressess to trigger from the enchantments...

Mystic Remora
Mind Unbound (maybe; don't like that it costs 6--I'd rather have cards on turn 6 and be playing combo)
Sylvan Library
Archmage Ascension (might be ok; decent amount of card draw in the deck)
Attunement (This...actually looks interesting; digs a lot)
Bident of Thrassa (with the commander it's decent; can usually connect)
Compulsion (I believe it was banned in some format somewhere, so it must be at least somewhat decent)
Ephara (not really a lot of creatures to turn it on)
Hatching Plans (hmm...I don't have a lot of ways to kill...frankly anything in this deck at the moment, so...)
Lor Ruin Expedition (draw 2 cards for 2 mana?  Could be ok)
Rhystic Study
Sisay's Ingenuity (well it does cost 1...).
Spreading Seas (Was a constructed card!  There's some nasty utility lands to kill too, like Kor Haven...yeah, I think this goes in...)
Trade Routes (hmm...might be better than compulsion in this deck).

Ramping...there's two reasons why this deck wants to use enchant lands.  One, because Derevi untaps them.  Two, because they are enchantments.

Abundant Growth: hmm...doesn't really do anything, but does cycle.
Annex: ...........>_>
Dawn's Reflection: hmm...4 mana to ramp by 2?  Yeah, that still sounds pretty solid if it doesn't get blown up.
Fertile Ground: sure
Overgrowth: Definitely
Trace of Abundance would be great; stupid red
Underworld Connections would be great; stupid black
Urban Burgeoning...hmm...not really that many instants in this deck
Utopia Sprawl: yep, it's good.
Wild Growth: yep, also good
Wellspring: Well......it's a less mean Annex.  A lot of the time there'll be a karoo to steal, and when there is it's a good ramp spell.
Mana Reflection: I'm not sure if I can count this as ramp given that it costs 6, but I'm certainly down for running it.

So....at least five ramp cards there.  Probably want a few more.  And if I am going to run both March of the Machines and Mycosynth Lattice, then I probably want some mana sources that still work if I kill all my lands.

Sol Ring (goes in every commander deck)
Nobe Hierarch (running bant colours, you say?)
Chromatic Lantern (Partially just for the time-saving convenience when figuring out coloured mana)
Gilded Lotus (fantastic untap target)
Coalition Relic (fine untap target when there's a bunch of spare untaps that I have no idea what to do with because they happen during combat)



So...ok, typical commander deck: 39-40 lands, 10ish ramp spells sounds ok.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2014, 08:59:19 AM
Alright, so what's the actual deck, then, and how tight is the space/how much more space needs to be filled?

Doubling Season
Primal Vigor
Parallel Lives
Opalescence

4

Verduan Enchantress
Silent Sentinel
Mesa Enchantress
Femeref Enchantress
Enchantress' Presence
Argothian Enchantress

6
(10 total)

Cackling Counterpart
[strike]Dance of Many (As much as I want to avoid copying opponent's stuff, the tutorability and fact that it makes a token to populate is really good)[/strike]
Dual Nature
Fated Infatuation
Followed Footsteps (Again, as much as I'd like to avoid copying opponent's stuff, the original stated goal of the deck was "get followed footsteps onto doubling season)
Mimic Vat (Probably; does steal opponent's stuff sometimes, though.  But, the tokens it creates can be populated)
Minion Reflector
Mirrorworks
Tempt with Reflections

9
(19 total)

Druid's Deliverance
Growing Ranks
Rootborn Defences
Sundering Growth
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice
Trostani's Judgment
Wayfaring Temple

7
(26 total)

Hana, Ship's Navigator
Dowsing Shaman
Open the Vaults
Replenish
Academy Rector
Enduring Ideal
Enlightened Tutor
Idyllic Tutor
Plea for Guidance
Sterling Grove

10 cards
(36 total)

Liquimetal Coating
Argent Mutation
Mycosinth Lattice
March of the Machines
Karn
Titania's Song
Animate Artifact
Karn's Touch
Fabricate

9 total
(44 cards)

Wargate

1 total
(45 cards)

Angelic Shield
Spear of Heliod
Mirari's Wake

3 total
(48 cards)

Sylvan Library
Mystic Remora
Rhystic Study
Spreading Seas

3 total
(52 cards)

Hmm...looks like I'm one over-budget here.  Well...I do think the issue of lands becoming artifact creatures and dying is a problem, but I'd have to replace a number of deck slots to deal with that.  So...that's probably staying in the deck.  On the other hand, Karn's Touch is just worse than the rest in its category, so that's an easy cut.  And...Titania's Song is...hard to use, since two of the things that make enchantments into artifacts are themselves artifacts and thus get disabled.  Cut those two.

And then just 11 ramp cards, 39 lands.  So like...

Dawn's Reflection
Fertile Ground
Overgrowth
Utopia Sprawl
Wild Growth
Mana Reflection
Sol Ring
Noble Hierarch
Chromatic Lantern
Gilded Lotus
Coalition Relic

Lands
3x Karoos
Some duals and fetches
Command Tower
Reliquary Tower
Serra's Sanctum
some basic lands

Oh, hm, you know what, Eternal Witness is probably too good to not run in this deck.  There will always be tutors and fetchlands in the graveyard, and maybe some spells that make token copies of stuff, and it can have token copies of it made and then populated.  Hmm...cut Dance of Many?  It is the one remaining card that easily copies opponent's stuff; Mimic Vat and Followed Footsteps can too, but they give warning, and neither are particularly good at copying enemy generals (which has been the main point of contention in my playgroup lately).  Although...eternal witness definitely goes infinite with some combination of stuff (enough doubling seasons + enough token copy cards in your graveyard + mana rock creature tokens that get haste through minion reflector or something).  Actually, Angelic Shield with minion reflector and enough doubling seasons and a mana rock can also go infinite.  So...ok no, don't add Eternal Witness, keep Dance of Many...wait, hold on, is Dance of Many itself a problem card?  What if the token is a copy of dance of many?  You can make unlimited Dance of Many this way, which...isn't immediately a problem since you can't pay the upkeep on all of them, but if they have haste then that's a problem.  If there's a doubling season in play, then that's a problem, because each copy makes two dance of many--one of them can put a token copy of doubling season into play.  Then you don't need to pay a lot of upkeeps.

Ok, so not adding Eternal Witness, but unexpectedly cutting two cards.  I guess titania's Song and Karn's Touch go back in....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 12, 2014, 11:56:37 AM
Hearthstone.

So...Laggy asked me what deck I would build if I could put up to 30 of any card in a deck--no deck limit.  And the goal is to kill the opponent quickly.

As an absolute baseline:

Warlock Decklist:
30x soulfire

Kills on turn 3 if you go second.  Kills on turn 4 if you go first.  Any serious competition must be able to beat one of these benchmarks, or match them without lifetapping, because this deck is 100% consistent.


So anyway, my first thought was "I want to run at least 6 murloc warleaders".  So...like

Turn 1: Innervate, Murloc Tidecaller x3
Turn 2: coin, Murloc Warleader (attack for 15; more than lethal on board)

This looks pretty good.  But you can't do this if you go first--no coin, and not enough cards to do innervate warleader on turn 2.  So...what are the options that actually kill on turn 3?

T1: Innervate, Tidecaller, Murloc Tidehunter
T2: Innervate, Murloc Warleader, attack for 13, 16 power on board--shapeshift will kill next turn if nothing dies

T1: Innervate, Murloc Tidecaller x3
T2: Murloc Tidehunter, attack for 12
T3: Murloc Warleader, attack for 28

T1: Innervate, Murloc Tidecaller x3
T2: Grimscale Oracle, attack for 12
T3: Warleader, attack for 23

T1: Innervate, Tidecaller x3
T2: Bluegill Warrior, attack for 11
T3: Warleader, attack for 22

I still am not in love with these, because they require topdecking the right card twice in a row (whereas when playing with coin you can just have everything you need in your opening hand, so you can mulligan for it).  That said, impressed by Tidehunter here, so what about like...

T1: Innervate, Tidecaller, Tidehunter
T2: Tidehunter, attack for 8
T3: Warleader, attack for 22

Ok, that's better, and lets you have a spare card in hand at all points (so you can mulligan to get a warleader, for instance).  I don't like the increase in 1 toughness creatures, though.  This is similarly good going second, except you get to cast Warleader on turn 2 and attack for 13 T2.



So like....

6 Innervates
7 Murloc Warleaders
8 Murloc Tidehunters
9 Murloc Tidecallers

Something like that?


This deck does have a funny weakness, though, in that Murloc Warleader buffs all murlocs including enemy murlocs, so it might actually lose to a standard Murloc deck.  To make it more resiliant to that, Old Murk-eye is an option, since he just gets extra power based on the number of murlocs, so in a murloc mirror can be like...a 10/4 charge for 4.



Hmm...wonder what the non-murloc options are.  Coin Scrubs, shadow step x4 leads to...attacking for 12 on turn 2.  Drop Raid Leader on turn 3 and win I guess.  But I'm not sure what the scrubs deck does if it doesn't have coin.


Innervating out a bunch of 1 drops seems like the highest damage you can get out of Innervate.  And in a druid deck this can curve into Savage Roar.  So...that's an option, and will generally be better than raid leader.


Of course, another question is whether these are meant to beat up normal decks, or meant to play against each other, because in the latter case thins get different.  The all soulfire deck lifetapping 3 times before it kills you is now very relevant--that's 6 life lost!  Also, hunter becomes pretty cool, because there's this card called Explosive Trap, and this card called Unleash the Hounds.  (Although it gets rolled by the Soulfire deck).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2014, 09:46:05 AM
Apparently I'm not the only person to have thought of something like this.......and I'm nowhere near optimal.

http://www.liquidhearth.com/forum/hearthstone/773-killing-opponent-before-he-can-do-anything

Innervate is the right start, but the correct thing to do is Innervate into Gadgetzan Auctioneer, and then all further Innervates draw you a card.  Proceed to draw deck, while adding lots of mana.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 13, 2014, 02:07:20 PM
I really dig the Moonfire one because Spell Damage hype is always great.  Also the whole thing because so much card advantage and as I keep telling Laggy, card advantage better than winning.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 14, 2014, 07:05:12 AM
I don't think Moonfire is the way to go ultimately, for the question that Laggy posed (which is "if you can put anything into your deck, what do you put?" not "if you can stack your entire deck too?")

Trying to get a consistent turn 1 kill is a little bit harder.  You need Gadgetzan Auctioneer in your opening hand.  If you're going first, you see 6 cards out of your deck, so that probably means you want to run 5 of them.  But running 5 becomes problematic, because of the following:

Innervate, Innervate, Gadgetzan

You now have one card left in had.  Cast your Innervate, draw an Innervate etc.  But if you ever draw a Gadgetzan before drawing something that gets a second spell in your hand, you are completely fucked.  Now, if you cast a spell that draws you a card, then you can totally play a second Gadgetzan and that is completely fine, all the rest of the spells in your deck now draw 2 cards, which maybe means you need to watch out for Fatigue, but more on that later.

I think drawing all 30 cards in your deck so that you can run as few spells that aren't part of the innervate engine as possible is probably the right plan.  Hmm...Force of Nature x2 Savage Roar x1 is only 26 damage; that's disappointing.  Force of Nature x1 Savage Roar x2 is only 22 damage.  Cmon, there's got to be a way to do this in 3 cards.  Alexstraza, Force of Nature x1, Savage Roar x1, Shapeshift...yeah, there we go.  Alternatively, Alexstraza, Ragnaros, Faceless Manipulator.  I actually don't mind Faceless Manipulator because it can play double-duty--you do want two Gadgetzan Auctioneers out eventually, because otherwise you won't draw your entire deck, and faceless can copy a Gadgetzan.  (If you planned on ever using it like that, though, you'd need to run two Faceless so that you'd have the second one for killing).

Not sure which of these I like better; thinking maybe Force of Nature Savage Roar?  If the opponent goes first, you don't want them to actually live; that would be silly.  I do have some concerns with these, however; if Force of Nature is the last card in the deck and you have two Gadgetzans out...potentially you take 1 fatigue when you draw it, 2+3 fatigue when you play Force of Nature, 4+5 fatigue when you play Savage Roar, 6+7 fatigue when you cast innervate to get your hero power because you are capped at 10 mana crystals.  Are you dead?  1+2+3+4+5+6+7 = 28.  No, but goddamn that's cutting it close.  Actually, wait no, nothing's stopping you from playing your hero power earlier when you're digging for Force of Nature, so the max fatigue damage you'll take is 15.  Also, this doesn't kill if your opponent plays like...Shield Barer, although you have an 8/8 dragon and two 4/4 goblins in play so you'll probably be fine....

Hmm...although...how much mana does all this take?  Gadgetzan -> Nourish -> Gadgetzan -> Hero Power -> Alexstraza -> Force of Nature -> Savage Roar.  That's 35.  Requires casting 17 Innervates...yep, that's totally fine; you aren't forced to draw a ton of extra cards just to get the mana you need.

Hmm...I wonder how worthwhile Nourish really is.  It's necessary for the turn 1 kill when you go first.  But if you pass the turn first turn, and then go off second turn, you wouldn't need it at that point--you could just keep casting Innervate until one of your two cards in hand was a Gadgetzan, cast it, and then innervate again and start increasing your hand size.  Obviously when you go second this is much more possible because you have three cards left in hand after getting the first Gadgetzan down (hopefully two innervates and a coin) all of which draw off of gadgetzan.

So....maybe the deck is like...

Gadgetzan x6
Innervate x21
Alexstraza x1
Savage Roar x1
Force of Nature x1

This deck can't win turn 1 when you play first, but I think I like it more than running like...5 Nourishes and praying that you can mulligan for a Gadgetzan and no Nourish in your opening hand, followed up then after that draw three Innervates in a row followed by a Nourish (and not a Gadgetzan, not a Savage Roar, and not a Force of Nature).  The percentage that would win turn 1 just seems low.  So...with this version, if you play first, just pass turn 1, I think (dumping a Gadgetzan out there is asking for it to be soulfired).  Turn 2 when you have an extra spell to combo with is time to combo out.

Might be worth it to run two Savage Roars maybe?  It really, really sucks to draw it when you don't have two Gadgetzans down filling your hand, but at least if there were two of them you could cycle it without losing.

Hmmmm...actually, I wonder if there's a risk of having your hand be too full, and thus losing a key combo piece?  Let's see...you'll always have 5 cards drawn when you start out (either you have coin, or you don't but it's turn 2).  You will draw at least 3 more cards before you can play the second Gadgetzan.  22 cards left in the deck.  2-3 cards in hand depending on coin.  If 2, you can draw 18 cards before you start burning any.  If 3, you can draw 16 cards before you start burning any.  So...potentially 2-3 cards out of the deck will get discarded due to maximum hand size.  Given that the kill combo is 10% of the deck, and lacking any of them sink you, each card you discard due to hand size is a 10% chance to fail.  So like...2 burn cards is overall a 19% chance to fail; 3 burn cards is a 28% chance to fail.  Although...if you've seen 8 cards in your deck, and none of those cards have appeared yet (almost necessary unfortunately for the combo to get started) then the odds get a lot worse.  28% for two cards; 41% for three.

Maybe I should add in some way to turn one of the Auctioneers off once you're nearing the 10 card count?  Starfire is somewhat tempting, because it can help you get the combo rolling if you're really in a bind by drawing you an extra card.  It does get around silly ways to lose like "opponent plays a shield barer" or "opponent armors up."  So maybe that's a good idea.

+1 starfire
-1 hmm...auctioneer or Innervate obviously; not sure which one.

Now...using starfire as the only victory contition is interesting.  It helps get the combo going, it allows you to control your auctioneer count as well, and once again opens up the possibility of getting turn 1 kills if you are very lucky.  The problem I see is mana; if you plan to cast 7 starfires (six on your opponent, one on your own goblin auctioneer) that's 42 mana.  52 mana counting casting two Auctioneers.  There's literally not enough deck space for that many Innervates.  So...ok, maybe the starfire deck plans to cast only one auctioneer and never kill it, relying instead on the card draw from Starfire.  Now we're down to 41 mana (20 innervates--doable) but it relies on drawing more Starfires than Auctioneers.  I think that deck would pretty much have to look like... 4x Auctioneer, 6x Starfire, 20x Innervate.  If your first six cards are Auctioneer x1, Innervate x5, then you probably win.  That does sound rough getting the combo started, though--4 auctioneers when you literally can't win without one.  6 starfire that...becomes helpful a lot more quickly than the previous kill conditions, but could still potentially screw over your opening.  And just generally not that much wiggle room--you can't put a second auctioneer into play--no mana, so two dead draws in a row can stop you.

How likely is that?  Starfire draws you two cards...each has a 33% chance to not be an Innervate.  11% of the time, you're fucked.  44% of the time you're fine.  The remaining 44% of the time...hopefully your non-innervate is a Starfire (60% chance) so you don't need to worry about that.  You now need to draw two Innervates in a row (44% chance).  Alright cool.  Now if you have a Starfire repeat this process (possibly with a second live card, in which case you're in great shape).  If you don't, well...you had damn well better draw a Starfire in the next two cards because if you go over 10 mana with Innervate the mana is lost, and the starfire deck needs all 41 mana, can't waste a single mana.  Eugh.  How likely is this?  Hmm...after Starfiring you can see a total of 7 cards before hitting the mana crystal overflow; 80% of the time you should see your next starfire in time.  Well...assuming you were starting from 0 mana crystals.  Could be up to 33% if you start with 2 mana crystals.

All in all, this is really rough calculations, but let's say overall there's a 33% chance that after you cast Starfire you just fail to get the next Starfire before you overflow on mana, or you draw two non-Innervates off the Starfire.    You have to Starfire six times.  I...don't like it.

So...yeah, sticking with the Alexstraza version.  Possibly with 1 Starfire to deal with some odd situations, like times when you're comboing well, have all the resources, you could ever need, but should kill your own auctioneer to make sure you don't burn cards from the deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 26, 2014, 07:47:19 AM
Magic the Gathering

Raksha EDH deck

So like...turns out this deck is really good, so I probably won't go upping the power level of the deck.  A few notes on cards that are underperforming so far, though:

1. Konda's Banner--is there really that much difference between making my other cats 4/4 double strike (attack for 8) and making my other cats 6/6 double strike (attack for 12)?  Sure, it's 50% more, but either way it ends up being "about 10 damage", and if my opponent can throw a 1/1 token in front of it, they probably do.  And it can only be equipped to legendary creatures, so 90% of the time it's just an extra +2/+2 bonus on Raksha being equipped.  Noteworthy, however: in the rare case I get it on one of Bimaz or Kemba (the cat legends that make cat tokens) it's fairly cool.  Fairly cool, but not mind-blowing.  Getting a 4/4 token every turn is often not as scary as it sounds when the default sizes in EDH are like...5/5 and 6/6.

2. Hedron Matrix--I've had it in my hand a few times; usually don't even bother playing it since getting Raksha to the magic 22 commander damage has actually happened pretty consistently and it costs a lot of mana to cast and equip.

3. Dreamstone Hedron--More than once I've been mana screwed with, say, three lands and this stuck in my hand.  And when I finally do get up to 6 mana, usually it's better to start dropping my power spells.

4. Mind's Eye--this is a funny one that is probably meta dependent.  Raksha has emerged as one of the more threatening decks at this kitchen table, and has dangeorus stuff to do once it has 6 mana.  As such, I often look at this in my hand and think "so...this would paint a massive target on my head."  I think if I brought this deck to a different group that didn't consider Raksha much of a threat, Mind's Eye would be good, though.

Prototype Portal has been weak, but it's hillarious so I don't care.


Replacements...

Worn Powerstone is an easy sub-in for Dreamstone Hedron if I want to keep the ramp.  They are both -3 mana this turn, Powerstone ramps 2 mana instead of 3, but it's a get out of mana screw card.

Adaptive Automaton is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for.  I thought it was a construct that gave cats +1/+1.  Instead it's a cat construct that gives cats +1/+1.  Given that I'm happily including some vanilla cats, this is noticeably better than vanilla.  Also, it does hilarious stuff with Prototype Portal.  And...just in general, having an artifact creature in the deck could be good, because protection from white is a thing.

Empyrial Plate...I know I said this was inconsistent but...look, it's an EDH deck.  You always draw first turn putting you at 8 cards in hand.  We play such that mulligans can't reduce hand size.  You always have a few ways of filling your hand back up (in my case the land tax effects and some of the swords, for example).  And turns where all I do is cast a commander or equip some equipment, don't even play a land are not unheard of.  This will almost never be less than +4/+4.  It's hard to imagine a game where I'd rather have Hedron Matrix over this.

And...maybe some low-cost library manipulation or card draw in the Mind's Eye slot.  Decent candidates include Sensei's Divining Top, Infiltration Lens, Witches Eye, Mask of Memory, Explorer's Scope, Scroll of Origins, Scroll Rack, Bottled Cloister, Solemn Simulacrum.  With a leaning towards equipment, especially ones with cheap equip costs, of these options due to several cards that trigger off of equipment.  Hmm...of these...I suspect Scroll Rack is probably the most consistent at helping out of mana screw and/or digging for removal to some problematic threat; it's also pretty gross if I have both it and Land Tax.  Infiltration Lens is probably the funniest, since people often find themselves wanting to block this deck (although there's a decent amount of evasion in this deck, and there's usually at least one player who can't block, so mask of memory might be better.  Notably, infiltration lens doesn't help dig out of mana screw or dig for answers if the person you attack doesn't cooperate).  Hmm...you know, I think Scroll Rack might be the best choice if I wanted to power the deck up--the original thought of Mind's Eye was to combat white's general lack of card advantage.  But this deck doesn't feel like it wants to pay 10 mana and draw 5 cards; if it has 10 mana to spare it's usually thinking about "Ok, let's start killing people, screw card draw."  Card draw is needed for getting out of mana screw, and later for getting a silver bullet (either removal or evasion).  That said, I'd feel kind-of dirty playing Scroll Rack--it's not a kitty, and it's not equipment, and it's not basic ramp, but it is known as being completely bonkers.  Mask of Memory is probably the synergy pick, since the deck has lots of evasion and a good amount of double strike and cards that love the line "equip (1)", but it won't get me out of certain binds (like if I'm mana screwed with small creatures and they have blockers, or like if I'm facing down some enchantment that stops me from attacking, or if there's an indestructible creature with pariah).  Still certainly the more in-theme option, and sounds like the more fun option (and more in-theme and fun than Mind's Eye, that's for damn sure).



Hmm...maybe I should swap out Mind's Eye for Mask of Memory.  The rest of them are kind-of just power level upgrades rather than fun upgrades.  Konda's Banner has hilarious potential, even if it usually ends up doing nothing most games--not in a hurry to swap it out.  Worn Powerstone and Empyral Plate are good but super vanilla boring.  I suppose I'm a little excited about Adaptive Automaton because it combos with Prototype Portal (and Leonin Abunas I guess), so like...in the 3% of games where I draw both portal and Automaton and haven't already cast one of them, it'd be fun I suppose?  Not in a hurry to swap out a bad card for it, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2014, 11:43:24 PM
Starcraft 2 "swarm mod"

Ok, so I've happened into this mod a few times now.  Kind of want to figure out what's going on, and if Zerg is really as imba as they seem in it.

Zerg units:

For the most part have their cost cut in half (including drones), and have much faster regeneration--like being healed by medivac fast regeneration in some cases--in testing I've sent in single units and watched them just not die.  The cost lowering sometimes means changing the gas/mineral balance of a unit (Roaches now cost 50 minerals).  Exceptions:

2 Vanilla zerglings cost 50 still (zuh?) but they have 40 HP instead of 35

Overlords cost 100 still (but you don't care because drones are 0 supply for some unknown reason)

Buildings have pretty much been changed at random, seems like, hatcheries cost 125 and take 60 seconds to build

Mutalisks cost 50/25 (because 50/50 was not inexpensive enough, apparently)

Vipers cost 100/50 (so...this is half, but I'm not sure why vipers are now a mineral unit)

Queens are now swarm queens and can move off creep like in the campaign, autocast transfuse, and also have bonus damage to armored, but their HP is only 150

Brood Lords cost 200/200, but are buffed in other ways (12 range, 325 HP, faster)

Roaches and hydras are faster; looks like Roaches have 120 base HP.

Spawned locusts last for 60 seconds, and spawn every 25 seconds from swarm hosts

Ultras are nerfed.  Fully upgraded they're 31 damage (down from 44)  They do have...that appears to be 3 base armor, though.

Infestors cost 25/100.  They have consumption and parasitic domination (200 energy) from the campaign.  Infested terran eggs cost 10 energy.

Banelings appear to do 52 damage to everything when fully upgraded (95 vs structures, but that sounds normal)

Looks like most units attack 50% faster on creep.


In addition, campagin units are available, at largely campagin prices.

Swarmlings have had their stats lowered below zerglings (4 base damage) and spawning three of them costs 125 (wtf)

Raptorlings still have cliffwalking and +2 damage.  looks like they're not affected by adrenal glands once you get that upgrade, though.  Cost 50.  Might be worth it, earlygame; raptorlings are kind-of awesome.

Two swarm host variants (costing 200/100) are in...the one that can teleport to creep locations, and the one that spawns higher damage flying locusts.

Two roach variants are in, the one that spawns roachlings, and the one that slows enemy attack and movement speed by 75%.  In addition, they both have 180 HP instead of 120 HP for the vanilla roach.  Both cost 75 minerals.

Two hydra variants are in costing 100/25, and having 130 base HP.  Their special thing is that they get to become impalers or lurkers.

Impalers have 250 HP, 12 range, 36/67 damage (bonus to armored) when fully upgraded.  Guessing that's 30/55 before upgrades.  1.3 attack speed.  Net cost: 150/50.  Oddly, Impalers don't seem to get the 50% attack speed bonus on creep (lurkers do).

Lurkers also have 250 HP, 12 range (wtf), 26/49 damage (bonus to light) when fully upgraded (probably 20/40 before upgrades).  Also 1.3 attack speed.  Net cost: 150/50.  Even accounting for the fact that everything is half price, this looks a bit busted.

Abberations exist!  Cost 200 minerals.  Deal...looks like 20/40 (26/49 when fully upgraded) bonus to armored.  275 HP.  Weapon speed 1.2.  Yeah...this is kind-of garbage; Ultras cost 150/100, have more DPS to everything, and 500 HP.

The alternate ultralisks...looks like they're supposed to have more armor than the base model, but don't.  (they're 6/3 and 9/3 respectively, but the base model is 5/3 but when mouseovered reports 8 armor, which seems to hold up to testing).  They cost 400/200 and 600/200 respectively with 600 and 700 HP respectively.  With the campaign bonus abilities of course (reviving and toxic fumes).  Not really worth it.

The campaign mutas that can morph into brood lords and vipers are available.  They cost 100/50 and have...small stat bonuses (one has 160 HP, the other has 5 movement).  Don't really seem worth the doubled price tag.

Well, ok, that's zerg; time to see if Terran or Protoss have anything that keeps up with this (because the times I played against other players, it felt like they really didn't, but maybe my opponents were just bad).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 30, 2014, 01:30:34 AM
Ok, well, seems more like every race is just crazy, and my opponents have just been bad.

Protoss gains 8 minerals per trip, has invisible probes that move faster than mutalisks.  Chrono boost is a lot better (400% speed for 30 seconds).

Protoss units generally have their cost doubled but their stats also raised.

Zealots cost 200 minerals, but deal 14x2 damage at slightly faster attack speed, and have 250 total HP and charge has a 3 second cooldown. 

Stalkers have 350 net cost, but deal 20 damage at range 10, with 50% faster attack speed, have a 3 second blink cooldown, and have 240 net HP.

Sentries...whoops, someone forgot to double the cost maybe?  15 damage, 10 range, 120 total shield/hp, but still 50/100 cost.  Also 25 energy forcefields.

Dark Templar have blink, charge, and 80 damage and 240 HP, 4 movement, for a net cost of 600

High templar have 140 net HP, 25 energy feedbacks, 50 energy storms, for a net cost of 400 (storm deals 120 damage).  Also energy in general seems to gain faster.

Archons deal 55/85, have 10 range, attack faster, and 510 net HP.

Then there's some hero units which don't seem worth-it at all.  Zeratul has a net 6000 cost, in exchange for 120 damage, 800 HP, and some special abilites; void which is good, and throw void spheres, which seems to be a ranged aoe move.

Krass has a net cost of 40,000, and is a high templar with a 50 damage range 15 attack, 500 energy, and 1200 HP.

Cannons are more expensive and do more.

Immortals deal 50 damage to light, 90 damage to armored, have 13 range (need to upgrade to get 13), hit air and ground, have 300 shields and 10 HP, attack faster, for a net cost of 700.

Colossus have net 600 HP, 15 range, 25x2 damage, faster attack speed, for a net cost of 1000.

The mothership core has vortex for 50 energy.  All the normal mothership core spells for 50 energy.  costs twice as much.  Has 230 net HP (not much of an upgrade actually).  Has 32 DPS but normal range (!).

The mothership has 2500 HP, 400 energy, 200ish DPS...which it can't seem to use; seems like a glitch.  and most of the same spells, for the net cost of...2400.

Phoenixes have 270 net HP, 9 range, and double damage.  Oh and 25 energy graviton beam.  For the net cost of 300 (actually they haven't gone up much in cost, interesting).

Void Rays cost 650, have 400 net HP, and...have mostly increased damage only against armored.  Range 8.

Tempests cost 800, have 22 range, deal bonus damage to structures, attack 50% faster, have 700 HP, and are otherwise mostly unchanged.

Carriers have 15 range, hold 12 interceptors, 800 HP, 8 base ship plating, interceptors have 40% more base attack, but might also attack 3x as quick, not sure. 1100 net cost

Oracles have 500 net cost, and...they've gained Entomb and Time Warp, void siphon, and a little HP, but that might be all; the damage and range haven't changed.

Scouts exist, they cost 100/50, and...yeah, they're solid.  250 net HP.  Same damage as mutas to ground; double that to light air.  quadruple that to armored air.  6 range.  Pretty close to brood war scouts except for the costing less than half as much.

And then there's some hero air units

Uthurn hero phoenix for 600 net resources: deals...looks like less damage than a phoenix, has 12 range and some armor/shield upgrades for free, and 30 extra HP.  Wut.

At 1000 net cost, Morhandir the hero void ray, which is...a WoL void ray (needs to charge up), comes with built-in upgrades, and has 20 base damage (good luck charging up) 13 range, 500 net HP.  A bit fragile maybe, but seems probably good.  Also, for some reason costs 0 supply, and you have no limit to the number you can make of him.  Hmm...Zeratul also costs no supply.

And then the other heros seem ridiculously overcosted again.

6000 for a void seeker, which is...a warp prism that can attack!

15000 for Selendis carrier, a carrier with 32 interceptors 2000 HP, double/triple damage interceptors depending on damage bonuses.  Well...I guess it only costs 20 supply, and it is probably better than 3 carriers (just worse than the equivalent cost 14).



Hmm...toss seem fine economically with zerg, actually, due to the double power of the workers.  Ignoring range and abilities, I think zerg gets more cost-efficient units, but the fact that damn near everything has 10-13 range, immortals hit air, etc.  Toss honestly looks just fine in this patch.  Another interesting thing is this--zerg has no max supply in this patch, and toss does, which could throttle toss...if not for Mohandir costing 0 supply and being really good.  Also, like zerg, probes cost 0 supply.  So...mmm, yeah, this might potentially be balanced.  Actually, if anything I'm not sure what zerg does about 10 range 50 damage archons....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 30, 2014, 03:32:40 AM
So...Terran is a little weird.  no increase in resources returned or super fast SCVs.  Stim costs 5 HP, doubles attack speed, and works on all biological units including hellbats and SCVs.  Reapers at the start of the game were costing 25 minerals and taking 10 seconds to build, but after some point started costing 50/50; not sure what happened there; possibly nitro packs revert them to being wol costed?  Or more likely the drop pod upgrade.

And Mules are completely ridiculous.  Last for 300 seconds.  Return cargo almost instantly (they work faster than SCVs).  I'd estimate each mule is worth about 2000 minerals.

Anyway, this follows the general zerg pattern of 1/2 cost for most things, coupled with faster build times (usually 8 seconds).

Reapers cost 25 minerals at the start of the game, and are hots reapers.

Marines cost 25 minerals, and have 75 HP with combat shield (not sure how much they have without).  They also don't cost supply

Medics exist and cost 50 minerals.  They also don't cost supply

Marauders cost 75 minerals

Firebats cost 50 minerals


Most of the merc units seem like a waste of money, since they aren't half price.


The hero units seem...maybe ok?  Hero Raynor is a 400 net cost marine with 16 attack and 250 HP and a bunch of abilities...hmm...nah, would rather have 3 marines (or 16 more to the point) unless I really needed those abilities.  The abilities are ok, though; a timewarp like spell and some aoe.  Tychus has 600 net cost for a 300 HP unit with 50 DPS (chaingun).  That's...again, not worth the 24 marines.  He also has some aoe, though.  General Warfiled for 500 cost is like...a 10 range double HP triple damage marauder--you can get about 7 marauders for that price.  Although one cool thing about him is that he's 0 supply.  The one thing I will say about these is that they deathball well.

Hmm...running out of time.  I will say BCs are nuts; over double the attack speed, 12 damage, yamato is basically a nuke. 8-10 range.  Granted, their cost is pretty close to original BC cost.

Terran might actually be the best race, somehow.  Their start is painfully slow, though, because they still need a depot to make a barracks....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 30, 2014, 06:01:57 PM
So...a few games I played against Mike:

PvZ

I sent a probe to invisiharass; it doesn't matter too much with the rate zerg can make drones though.  I also sent out four probes to block expansions invisibly.  He expanded on my side of the map.  I was theoretically behind I think because half my workers were not mining, but his bases were in awkward locations.  I moved out with one sentry, 2-3 immortals off of one base, while I expanded behind.  this killed everything; don't think I lost a unit.  Also, forcefields are like...double-size.

TvZ

I opened reaper harass, which had worked well against him in a 2v2 (I actually pulled back in the 2v2 because I wanted to give him a chance to play).  This time, however, he threw down emergency spines, and spines have 11 range and build in 5 seconds.  Ok then.  I was probably behind from this point, but whatever, make MM, move out precisely for a stim timing.  This was a great idea, except I built no turrets, and mutas killed my economy.  Turrets have splash AoE and would have killed the mutas.  I did trade 1-2 bases of his for mine, but he was on more bases than me by this time.


Well...still, initial guess would be P > Z > T based on this, but I'm not sure if that's fair for T--knowing how easy it is to defend with spines, and how good orbitals are, a fast second orbital rather than a rush could make a huge difference.  Also, I should have put down static defences, since T's static defences are really good in this mod.  Granted, I did not play PvT, but it sounds like a rough match for T--invisible probe harass stops buildings.  If the supply depot and barracks can be delayed significantly, then the orbital gets delayed significantly, and the turbo economy from Terran comes from the orbital.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 07, 2014, 05:21:10 PM
Swarm mod a week later....

Some strategies are starting to crystallize a bit more.

Zerg:

Probably the biggest balance issue I've seen is spine crawlers.  They build in 5 seconds (and as you might expect they're insane like everything else in the mod).  This makes early offence against zerg almost impossible; pure drones and then make reactionary spines will hold off all early pressure I've seen.  Which is fine--so it's a norush 3 minutes type of mod.  The bigger deal is spine crawler rushes.  Zerg can respond with their own spines (just build more of them) but both Terran and Protoss are at risk because Zerg can start a hatch, cancel it, and make a spine on the small spot of creep, and T/P don't get early static defence to throw down in response (cannons require robo bay, presumably because cannon rushing was ridiculous.  Terran has some anti ground static defence, but it's shorter range).

Units choices from zerg:

I'm favouring the slow-type roaches, mutas, a mixture of swarm hosts vs protoss sentry immortal balls (the ones that spawn flying locusts cost more, but circumvent forcefields and don't get stuck behind other locusts) and I will make ultras against heavy AoE.  Also: infestor parasitic domination is good against protoss things--you can cast it while burrowed too.

Units for protoss:

Immortals are terrifying.  Sentries are great (forcefields are massive).  Storm is pretty good too.  Carriers seem alright as well.  I had kind-of dimsissed phoenixes, until I saw how good they were in PvP.  When your opponent has an army of 10 terrifying units, you can just lift them all.

Units for Terran:

Reapers aren't as good as I expected, because there are so many early defences available.  Marines once you have stim and combat shield are fantastic, though--they are basically Hydras for 25/0 instead of 50/25.  Siege Tanks and thors are also good, because AoE in this game.  Turrets have AoE (as do spores and cannons) and are pretty much a necessity if there's a zerg in the game.  The one time I madde Battlecruisers I actually wasn't impressed--went up against hero Thors and thor volleys would take off half my health.  Sure, Yamato being a nuke and BCs attacking 3x as fast is cool and all that, but AA is geared to be good enough to deal with 40 mutas at the 5 minute mark, and BCs don't really keep up.  That said, I'm not sure what the right thing for Terran to build vs Protoss is; probably bio just because of how scary immortals are, but there's still the super sentries to get around; I'm not sure.

Terran is very snowbally, though.  In a lot of ways Swarm Mod is like double-speed starcraft, which means mules last 10 minutes (basically the whole game).  So...Terran starts painfully slow, and then every time they drop a mule their income goes up by roughly 10 SCVs (and basically never goes back down).  On top of that, you still need stim and combat shield and really want combat drugs eventually to forego medics (if you're going bio). And lots and lots and lots of infrastructure (whereas Zerg rarely runs out of larva, and Protoss can often support two base economy with two unit-producing buildings because Chrono Boost is 400% speed, Terran needs like...20 unit production structures on one base).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 11, 2014, 09:43:56 AM
MTG EDH

So...a couple new people have joined the EDH table, with a collection of cards that are sometimes just leftovers from drafts, and the power level difference is kind-of noticeable.  My intention with Raksha was to make a weak deck I could take to the table, but I actually think Raksha might be my best deck.  Mostly because swords are good.  I don't want to neuter Raksha, though.  So...it's time to make another deck.  And...just putting some cards I own into a deck doesn't have much appeal to me so...time for some interesting restrictions.

My first thought was a pauper deck, but pauper is a bit silly when it comes to super-old sets, because common had no special design meaning.  So...I modified this to be Modern pauper (which is to say: it must be a common in a Modern-legal set...not counting Modern Masters if that is modern legal as it makes a bunch of uncommons into commons due to being a high power set).

With one special exception: the general can be uncommon (since there are no common legends).  Legend options...well there's Bushi Tenderfoot, but I already have a deck with a 3/4 double-striking general that wants to be equipped to trigger important abilities.  Sachi, Daughter of Seshiro is interesting, but also ramp focused, and pauper ramp in EDH--wtf are you ramping into?  Craw Wurm?  And then there's some creatures which flip on spirit and arcane spells, but I'm guessing with monocoloured commons-only those will actually be somewhat problematic to trigger.  Which leads me to Nezumi Graverobber as having a very good EDH effect (which in particular scales with the opponents).  Technically I'm not sure if Nezumi Graverobber is a legal commander, because it's a flip card, but whatever it has me excited.

So...what do the Modern commons look like?

Searching for cards with "Each Opponent" turns up...

Gray Merchant of Ashphodel (commader allstar, and works great with the general + a sac outlet)
Liliana's Spectre (also great).
2x shitty stat extort creatures (Basilica Screecher and Syndicate Enforcer--I suppose run both)
Servant of Tymaret (hm, intriguing; a regenerating dude isn't bad to have anyway if I expect to be outclassed)
Squeaking Pie Grubfellows (I'm really iffy on this one; there's...maybe 20 cards I can legally play that trigger it).
Blistergrub (hm, underwhelmed)
Infectious Horror (you know, I might like this a little more than blistergrub, even if the recursion with the commander isn't as good; give it evasion and it's probably worthwhile)

Blood Seeker (Just tossing this in here as something to include just as a unique effect)

Well...one thing I do like about restrictions like this is that as long as I stay on-theme I can be tryhard...which brings me to infect creatures....

13 infect cards in black and artifact...probably want to run most of them.
In addition, there's two proliferate cards.  Grim Affliction looks underwhelming, but I actually don't mind Spread the Sickness.

And while we're doing that, equipment/auras...

Adventuring Gear: don't think I'll be landfalling much
Bone Saw: well it is cheap...
Bonesplitter: (yes!)
Cobbled Wings: well...it's evasion...
Cranial Plating: Probably won't run enough artifacts, but we'll see...
Executioner's Hood: well...it's evasion....
Explorer's Scope: (yes--card draw is damn near nonexistant for common black)
Fleetfeather Sandals: (yes--been doing good work in Raksha)
Kitesail: (evasion and a damage bonus--if I'm including it for the infect interaction, then yeah, this is worth considering)
Leonin Bolas: (A kind of removal; I feel like I should consider it...)
Leonin Scimitar: mmm...I dunno
Strider Harness: (yes)
Sylvok Lifestaff: (Lifegain is good in multiplayer generally, and this was constructed worthy; definite yes)
Viridian Longbow: (hmm...gets around blockers, and I can run some deathtouch creatures for it too; definitely considering it)
Vulshok Morningstar: (yes)
Vulshok Gauntlets: I don't know; that's way more power than anything else I can run, but the drawback seems hefty
Whispersilk Cloak: (yes)

And there's also some decent bestow...
Baleful Eidolon (yes--deathtouch)
Cavern Lampad (of course--intimidate)
Nyxborn Eidolon...iffy on this one

Auras...
Dark Favor...it is a lot of power...
Grizly Transformation...actually I maybe like that; cycles.
Necromancer's Magemark is kind-of neat
Scourgemark...also cycles, making it possibly ok
Predator's Gambit (This does get run in straight constructed pauper decks, so is probably good enough here)
Mark of the Vampire (Yeah, lifelink in EDH can be a big deal; even if I'm not likely to get as much out of it, I think I want this)

Removal--ok, running a deck containing only black commons; of course I'm going to have some of this:
Devour Flesh (sac)
Geth's Vertict (sac)
Bala Ged Scorpion.  maybe
Blind Zealot (target creature destruction I can recur)
Consume Spirit (drain life)
Death Wind ...maybe
Deathspore Thallid ...maybe
Disciple of Tevesh Szat (It's a common pinger that can give things -6/-6? o_O)
Disfigure (-2/-2)
Doom Blade (destroy)
Echoing Decay (-2/-2 multitarget)
Executioner's Capsule (destroy)
Eye Gouge ...well...cyclopses are relevant in my EDH meta...
Eyeblight's Ending (destroy)
Grasp of Darkness (-4/-4)
Grizly Spectacle ...worth considering if I'm looking for reanimation targets.
Hideous End (destroy)
Last Gasp (-3/-3)
Murder (destroy)
Nameless Inversion (+3/-3)
Quicksand (-1/-2 -- Common in Worldwake o_o)
Rend Flesh (destroy)
Seal of Doom (destroy)
Soul Reap (destroy)
Tendrils of Corruption (damage)
Terror (destroy)
Tragic Slip (-13/-13)
Vendetta (destroy)
Victim of Night (destroy)
Festercreep (-1/-1 sweeper)
Brainspoil (think I want it just as a way to tutor for Gray Merchant...)

Well...I can easily run 20 pieces of pretty premium removal if I feel like it (as in 3 cost or less)

Random might want: Death Denied, Driver of the Dead, Footbottom Feast, March of the Returned, Recover, Shadow-Alley Denizen, Soul Stair Expedition, Undying Evil

Well...hold on, I do want an enters the battlefield theme to work with the commander.

Cadaver Imp
Chittering Rats
Disciple of Phenax
Ghoulraiser
Gravedigger
(Gray Merchant)
Liliana's Shade
(Liliana's Spectre)
Phyrexian Rager
Ravenous Rats
Returned Centaur
Maaaaaaybe... Spiderwig Boggart
Warren Pilferers

And...sacrifice engine stuff...

Altar's Reap
(maybe?) Basal Sliver
Blood Bairn
(maybe?) Bloodflow Connoisseur
Bloodthrone Vampire
Dimir House Guard
(Maybe?) Mindlash Sliver
Vampire Aristocrat
Viscera Seer

Hm, I think 6 of these is plenty; really, the commander will usually have better things to return from other people's graveyards rather than needing stuff in mine.

Let me check mono black stuff...

Devotion:
Add Marshmist Titan

Swamps:
Add Dross Golem...maybe
Add Sink into Takenuma
Hmmm.....I guess consider Quag Sickness to get around indestructible?

On top of that, pretty sure I want at least one if not both of the common Eldrazi

Ulamog's Crusher (for sure)
Possibly Hand of Emrakul (but I am not feeling either of the common black Eldrazi spawn token generators, so I'd be hardcasting this; not sure if it's worth it).


Hmm...feel like I've already mentioned close to 60ish cards.  Will need to think about trimming, honestly.  There's also some theoretically powerful discard spells I can run like Duress, but I'm not excited about single-targeting a player in a multiplayer game.


EDIT:

Stuff I missed:

Pilgrim's Eye

Death triggers:
Black Cat
(Blistergrub)
Caustic Hound (more life loss)
Soulcage Fiend (although this might be the better life loss choice just due to the stats)
Driver of the Dead (pretty good)
Forsaken Drifters
Deathknell Kami (soulshift...)
Gibbering Kami (soulshift...)
Scuttling Death (soulshift...)
Hornet Harasser (-2/-2 ...is that the best ETB/LTB death trigger I have?)
Perilous Myr (this too I guess)
Myr sire
Sadistic Augermage (oh this is powerful!)



Undying:
Butcher Ghoul
Sightless Ghoul (meh)
Undying Evil (actually...probably)

Dredge
Stinkweed Imp (obvious choice)

Might want to consider:
Fume Spitter (although I guess I don't have much proliferate)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 12, 2014, 06:02:04 PM
One more pass through:

Haunted Fengraf
Boujuka Bog
Quicksand


Boon of Erebos (maybe--pump)

Pulse Tracker (each opponent loses 1 life hmm)

Rimebound Dead (snow skeleton)

Shadow Alley Denizen

Soul Stair Expedition

Thoughtpicker Witch

Typhoid Rats (1/1 deathtouch)

Wayfarer's Bauble (3 mana rampant growth)

Armillary Sphere

Cranial Plating? (If I can get two artifacts out it's good)

Daggerdome Imp (flying lifelink)

Death Denied

Leaden Myr

Rotting Rats (each player discards)

Skeletal Grimace

Vault Skirge

Vorrac Battlehorn (trample?)

Wicked Akuba (excellent card; is it what we want, though?)

Chilling Shade (super coldsnap shade)

Delerium Skeins

Faerie Macabre (already EDH tech)

Morbid Plunder (2 for 1)

Moriok Replica (draw 2 lose 2)

Read the Bones (scry 2 draw 2)

Sign in Blood (draw 2)

Recover (return and draw)

Heartstabber Mosquito (only ETB kill bigger than -1/-1)

Ur Golem's Eye

Dread Drone (making 3 bodies for one resurrection is actually relevant if I'm running lots of sac creatures)

Enemy of the Guildpact (protection from multicoloured means blocking most of the generals)

Okiba Gang Shinobi (ninjitsu is good in an etb deck)

Traitor's Clutch (gains shadow and +1/+0)

Terrus Wurm (7 mana 5/5 scavenge)



Aaaand general path I think I'm going to take:

Obviously run good cards in general, but I think the gameplan is going to be as follows:

* Include all the card draw/return that actually provides card advantage and can be compared to a Divination.  There just isn't any recurring card advantage cards, and not even that many one-time cards; they all go in.

* All players discard is probably better for the deck than target player discards; fills up graveyards, and I can reanimate/return to hand anyway.

* Big Lifegain stuff is fine (Gray Merchant, lifelink, extort).  But while yes, Gray Merchant can kill people, I don't think I should focus on that and include a bunch of "all opponents lose life" cards.  There's enough poison to plan on winning the game with poison, so packing the deck with lifeloss is probably not what I want.

* Cranial Plating is decent if there's one other artifact, although it's still a worse bonesplitter in that case.  It does kind-of fight with Grey Merchant for what I want to pack the deck with, though.  Devotion...artifacts....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 13, 2014, 04:22:08 AM
Continuing modern pauper EDH....


Poison (13)

Blackcleave Goblin
Contagious Nim
Corpse Cur
Flensermite
Ichorclaw Myr
Pestilent Souleater
Phyresis
Phyrexian Digester
Plague Stinger
Scourge Servant
Tainted Strike
Toxic Nim
Vector Asp

Card advantage (5)

Moriok Replica
Read the Bones
Sign in Blood
Recover
Phyrexian Rager
(optional Altar's Reap)
(optional Death Denied)
(optional Morbid Plunder)
(optional soul stair expedition)

Mana (6)

Wayfarer's Bauble
Armillary Sphere
Ur-Golem's Eye
Liliana's Shade
Pilgrim's Eye
Explorer's Scope

Good shit (4+)

Stinkweed Imp
Ulamog's Crusher
Delerium Skeins
Okiba Gang Shinobi
Sink into Takenuma (probably)
Butcher Ghoul (probably; undying...)
Undying Evil (probably; undying...)
Enemy of the Guildpact (maybe, I dunno)
Marshmist Titan (maybe, I dunno)
Dross Golem (maybe, I dunno)
Faerie Macabre (EDH tech, although maybe I don't need more graveyard hate)

Equipment (8+)

Bonesplitter
Cranial Plating
Fleetfeather Sandals
Strider Harness
Sylvok Lifestaff
Vulshok Morningstar
Whispersilk Cloak
Adventuring Gear
(maybe Vulshok Gauntlets)
(maybe Kitesail)

So...some thoughts: these are mostly 1 mana to equip, which I like.  My initial dismissal of Adventuring Gear may have been hasty, since I will actually have a fair bit of mana searching, and a bunch of it is recurrable.

Auras (5)

Baleful Eidolon
Cavern Lampad
Grizly Transformation (could cut if needed)
Predator's Gambit
Mark of the Vampire
(Shadow Alley Denizen is another option for intimidate)

Hm, that's actually 3 different ways to give intimidate; might be excessive.

Lifegain (6)

Gray Merchant of Ashphodel
Shitty extort dude
Shitty extort dude #2
Servant of Tymaret
Vault Skirge
Daggerdrone Imp (could cut if desperate; weaker Vault Skirge)

ETB outside of lifegain/card draw (5)

Cadaver Imp
Liliana's Spectre
Gravedigger
Warren Pilferers
Rotting Rats
Disciple of Phenax (probably)
Chittering Rats (probably)

(So...three gravedigger variants, and two everybody discards; yeah, looks solid)

Transmute (3)

Shred Memory (possible cut)
Dimir House Guard
Brainspoil

(Yeah, probably want all three; Shred Memory can get specialized creature kill since most of it is 2, or get the general back if tucking happens, or get a sac engine piece.  Dimir House Guard is actually good just for the body.  Brainspoil can get gray merchant)

Sac Engine (4)

Viscera Seer
Blood Bairn
Bloodthrone Vampire
Vampire Auristocrat


Alright...so...I still want a bunch of removal, how many card slots are left?  Oh?  Zero?  Well hmm.

Not cutting poison or draw or mana yet.  Let's cut some shitty extort dudes, yeah!  And maybe Servant of Tymaret.  A regenerator when I expect to be outclassed on creature size is cool, but...I can just bring back a creature each turn with etb and chump too.
That's -3.
Sac engine could downsize.  The deck is less about reusing ETB effects than I thought, and there is a lot more high quality and a lot less "Ravenous Rats did its job; sac it."  Keep Viscera Seer obviously, and I suppose Bloodthrone Vampire for its searchability with shred memory.
-2
Auras...honestly, most of the equipment feels constructed-worthy, most of these auras feel like good limited cards.  I'd rather have a Terror spell than a deathtouch bestow creature.  Lose the bestows and Grizzly Transformation.  Actually...lose Mark of the Vampire too--I get away with Angelic Destiny in Raksha because it kills people, and returns to hand.  If I enchant an infect creature, it's probably not going to kill in one swing, someone will use removal on it, and I'll get 2-for-1'd; if I enchant something big, ditto.  In fact...fuck it, cut all auras; I'll be behind enough on card advantage as is playing commons.
-5
That loses me a ton of evasion; maybe add in Kitesail to make up for that.
+1
Daggerdrone Imp I kinda want to keep now that I cut Mark of the Vampire; just for something to do with equipment
+0
Okiba Gang-Shinobi is awesome but a bit anti-synergistic, since everything I have actually badly wants to connect with opponents (lifelink, poison)
-1
Recover...actually, there are enough ways to get creatures back from my graveyard, so this will often be mostly for draw one card; not that exciting.
-1
On second thought, fuck it, cut Daggerdrone Imp.  Creature kill is a better way of being defensive than lifegain; there's still two other lifelink creatures that can be tutored for.
-1
Is Cranial Plating actually going to be any good?  Hmm...9 equipment, Vault Skirge, 5/6 mana cards--they want to be sacced, but it's not mandatory, 5/13 poison creatures, so...about 20 artifacts in the deck.  Should be +3/+0 on average, for a 1 equip cost.  So...yes, that's solid.
+0
Infect creatures...some artifact ones are kinda weak, but they pump cranial plating...but also intimidate combines brilliantly with artifact creatures although...hell I have zero intimidate givers at the moment.  Hmm...my gut instinct is that 5 mana is going to be bad, cause if you have 5 spare mana you want to use the commander.  Which pushes me towards cutting Scourge Servant or Pestilent Souleater.  Hmm...fuck synergies with 1-2 cards, Digester is the worse card.
-1
Hmm...maybe I should do something about this lack of fear.  Shadow Alley Denizen is looking solid the more I think about it--recurrable with the general, and almost always triggerable--the general can either bring a creature into play, or casting the general itself will trigger it.  I like that it costs no mana, too.  And this makes me feel ok cutting Kitesail again.
+0

I'm still low on ways to give myself evasion, but removal is helpful for that anyway.


Alright, so I've freed up 13 removal slots.

Removal (15)

Devour Flesh
Geth's Verdict
Blind Zealot
Consume Spirit
Disciple of Tvesh Szat (for all that this costs 11 total mana, this can be recurred and sacced to kill things; good in case of emergency imbasphinx)
Doom Blade
Echoing Decay
Executioner's Capsule
Grasp of Darkness
Seal of Doom
Tendrils of Corruption
Terror
Tragic Slip
Victim of Night
Festercreep

Hmm...hmm...I think I want the 3 things I can recur.  Despite the interaction with one single card in the deck (cranial plating), not really feeling Executioner's Capsule; it's like having a doom blade in hand, except people know about it and can blow it up.  As for a second card......Consume Spirit?  Pretty garbage as removal, and it's not like consume spirit someone in the face for 7 is actually all that good in Commander--or this deck in particular which has a plan A of poison.  Only other thing I should probably consider is going more general with my removal--running some 3-mana stuff like Murder.  But...cutting Terror for Murder doesn't sound appealing.  Vendetta...sounded like a better idea before I cut all my lifegain, now...meh.  And...actually, my recurrable stuff hits anything including black creatures, and my instants are low cost; that sounds like a good mix.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 15, 2014, 08:52:04 AM
Hearthstone--just storing these here as a kind-of bookmark:

http://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/230vc8/dragon_priest_my_legend_shadowform_priest_deck/

So...someone made a priest deck based on shadowform, Prophet Velen, Malygos, and Mind Blast.  And then made Legend with the deck.



In other news, the #1 ranked player in legend is running Hunter with no Leeroy Jenkins, no traps, and no Eaglehorn Bow (and two River Crocolisk chosen over Bloodfen Raptor, as well as King Mukla):

http://i.imgur.com/NWPFGnc.png
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 19, 2014, 12:09:07 PM
MtG Nighteyes the Dessecrator commander:

So...observations so far:

I don't have a lot of pump.  I had between 0-2 equipment at any one time.

I'm very light on evasion; having a poison creature out generally didn't mean that much.

The commander is pretty awesome when flipped, but it's hard enough to flip that I generally don't want to offer up trades.

My friend thinks that I should run less 2 mana removal like Doom Blade, and more 3 mana removal like Murder and Eyeblight's Ending.

I think I want more lifegain in general.  The "I don't need to be defensive because I'm not a threat" plan somewhat applies, but there was enough "everyone loses life", and just political situations when someone decided "you're the only person I can attack right now."  Certainly someone else was running some common extort creatures that I cut, and they were doing work.  I should at least try Servant of Tymaret since I have one.  I think I actually won't be pursuing the second 1/1 flying lifelink, because I don't have enough pump.

I'm just not finding myself excited about the gravediggers when my commander can do the same thing.  It's more consistency for times when I can't flip, and it gets another body, but 1/1 through 3/3 bodies are negligible in size.

Sac outlets are good--I might not have many enters the battlefield triggers I want more than once with my commander on my own creatures, but I do on other people's creatures.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 22, 2014, 04:52:35 PM
Heroes of the Storm

Li Li

So...abilities:

1. I think Path of the Wizard is the one to go here.  With it, at level 20, your mana regeneration is 9.  Without it, at level 20, it's 5.  9 is good, because you use healing brew once every 3 seconds, which is 25 mana per 3 seconds (requires roughly 8 mana regeneration to cover).

The competition: Gale Force--yeah, spec your lili for damage!11!  Mass Vortex: I'm usually happy to hit 3 heroes with Blinding Wind.  The case when there are more than 3 relevant targets in rage is pretty rare.  Bribe: eh, never tried it.  Healing Ward: crunching some numbers this actually sounds reasonably solid, assuming your whole team sticks within a circle for 20 seconds.  Would be similar numbers to her ult.  It doesn't have the mobility, though, and I don't think losing her mana is worth it.

2. I like Lingering Blind.  So...Zeratul misses two attacks, you say?

The competition...Bringer of Gifts adds the mana/HP restoration of the potions to your serpent.  It's ok for an early, if expensive way to heal yourself several levels before this is normally a viable option.  Temp shields can also target you.  Poison...yeah, skepticism about that ability.

3. First Sip is really good right now.

By comparison, The Good Stuff increases healing by 25%, but First Sip heals Lili for 50% of the target.  Additionally, I tested and First Sip combos just fine with the later acquired Two For One (making you drink a whole potion when you toss two).

4. Jug.

Water  Dragon is terrible.

5. Well...I've been using Hindering Winds, but I wonder if I should use more Elusive Feet.  Both movement related abilities, one slows the opponent, the other makes you move faster (and blocks a bit of incoming damage).  One is a nice support to help chase down opponents.  One is almost purely defensive, but probably does it better than the slowing crowd.

The other stuff here...double the damage of Lightning Serpent...it's a bounce though, so often hitting creeps or nothing.  Shrink Ray is cool, slows by 50% instead of 25% and lasts for 4 seconds instead of 2.  Hindering Winds has 12s cooldown instead of 60, though, and is MT.  Ice block looks incredibly trashy--invulnerable but can't move?

6.  Two for one.  Double your marquee spell.  Herbal Cleanse excites me too, because CC effects are a big deal, but having played both, the raw battering ram power of two for one seems to make things so much easier.

Magical essence...really not needed if you have First Sip--get in there, soaking some hits is good.  Timeless creature...lets you double the dps of that spell if you really plan ahead.  Stoneskin is...again, I think with first sip I like two for one more--double your self heal.

7. All of the final level ones are somewhat low impact, since they have 60 second cooldowns.  I was messing with Bolt of Storms for a bit (it's blink with a 60s cooldown) but decided that Jug of 1,000,000 cups was a bigger deal (double the power of an already good spell).  Resurgence of the Storm is probably worth it if you expect to die, because of lategame death timers.  Storm Shield...seems worse than Jug, which also saves people but keeps them healed for more than 3 seconds.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 27, 2014, 04:12:54 PM
Crazed DLers takeover Blizzard and ban all Neutral Minions (not "unique" enough) and create a DL Hearthstone tournament where each character can build decks using only their own unique cards.  Hey, fewer options means voting is easier, right?  Here's my rough idea of the power levels (mc / others who know Hearthstone, please feel free to correct my theorycraft).  Note this is assuming these decks play each other and not random "normal" decks on ladder, so the metagame should be much weaker & slower.

Mage - Pretty great.  Rush to get some damage in early with the cheap dudes and actually have a curve, finish off with burn / Pyroblast.  This is actually vaguely close to Otter's burn deck.
Hunter - The best beatdown deck by a mile, lots of minions on a reasonable curve backed by removal.  Unleash the Hounds isn't as good as in real play since enemy minion count will be lower, but hey, that just makes Deadly Shot better. 
Priest - Since rushing is hard, the long-game deck seems pretty advantaged.  Steal and kill all your opponent's dudes while healing.  Not much early game but Priest can get away with it here, I think.  Probably beats Mage but loses to Hunter?
-- gap --
Druid - Similar to Priest?  Except rather than stall & slow & steal & kill everything, Druid just accelerates into huge monsters with Taunt.  Seems workable if slightly weaker.
Warrior - Seems like a worse version of Hunter.  Okay midgame beatdown deck that is slower.
-- gap --
Shaman - Their deck will be Overloaded with Overload.  Their minion curve is kind of awkward too, too much support, not enough actual beatdown.  Seems okay if anti-synergistic.
-- gap --
Warlock - Uh, all of those drawbacks and self-killing cards seem like overkill.  That said, Jaraxxus is still boss if he gets out, and Sense Demons helps find him a bit, and there's lots of removal to not die until then?  Maybe?
Paladin - You'd think they'd sport some kind of rush deck, but there's way fewer Paladin minions than you'd expect.  Better hope buff'd Silver Hand Recruits can finish the job.  At least Truesilver Champ is still pretty good.
Rogue - Insanely awful.  Better hope a giant Edwin VanCleef goes unanswered?  Your dudes are small and suck and the combo rewards won't actually win and without Auctioneer there's no card-draw engine.  Headcrack hype?!?!  (no)

EDIT: From chatting with Otter & Alex - they think that Hunter is the clear top dog, and Mage is probably more mid-tier if acceptable.  They also kneejerked that Druid > Priest for the slow deck since Priest is too dependent on the theft.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on April 28, 2014, 06:51:41 AM
Top: Shaman, Druid, Hunter
Decent: Paladin, Rogue, Warrior, Mage
Bad: Priest, Warlock

My thoughts run along those lines.  Not 100% sure on the order of the top three, but I think those three are clearly the top, they lose very little from the format.  It's possible I'm sleeping on Priest too, they don't lose much except taunters, but... Priest.

Editing for more:  The format is slow, owing to a general lack of minions while all of the normal removal is still present (and even more removal is likely to come in).  Considerably slower than normal, except for Hunter and even they are taking a substantial speed hit by losing neutral charge finishers like Leeroy and Arcane Golem, as well as the lack of opponent's minions making Unleash worse and big combo turns harder to achieve.  That said, Hunter still runs mostly class cards anyway, still has the single best card in the game (Tracking), and their aggro gameplan is now completely unique among the classes and much harder to defend against due to the loss of neutral taunts and taunt givers.  For the cards Hunter loses, they can just play more bows, more secrets, or some of their more expensive removal, which all match up well against a slower field based on big single minions.

Shaman is the class least affected by the format change.  Their top performing lists vary as the class has fallen slightly out of favor lately, but all tend to run 25+ class cards, with the nonclass cards they do run being "for value" propositions like Bloodmage Thalnos, Azure Drake and Gadgetzan Auctioneer.  These are easily replaced by cards like Earth Elemental and Windspeaker which are unfavorable in current constructed, but seem quite good in a no-neutrals format.  Their low drops are virtually unaffected, they retain outstanding removal including Hex and Earth Shock (silence is a lot harder to come by with no Owls...) while their top end retains the power of Al'Akir, windfury and rockbiter combos - in fact Earth Elly existing gives them another great combo target.  Additionally, totems rocket in value in a minion-light metagame.  Hunter is probably most people's pick for best class in this format, but if I was actually playing in a tournament like this I might take Shaman.

Druid is also pretty self explanatory.  They have BY FAR the best class minion selection.  They have excellent removal for small and medium sized minions, Naturalize can even be a serious consideration in this format, and they retain their mana acceleration and the Force/Roar combo to put games to a quick end.  Oh, we can't run Golems and Ragnaros anymore?  Whatever, just put in Power of the Wild and Ironbarks.  What else can I say, they are clearly the most dominant non-aggro class in normal play, have been so forever, and they do it all with class cards sooooo...  oh yeah they also have a great Hunter matchup because they now have a real reason to run double Healing Touch.

Paladin is hard to measure because of how rarely it is seen in current constructed play as it is.  They have very few class minions and therefore must expect to lean extremely heavily on their hero power tokens in this format.  But this may be a blessing in disguise, since they DO have the hero power for consistent board presence and inevitability, and can now play All Of The Spells alongside it.  Blessing of Wisdom seems extremely powerful in this format, Equality still threatens one sided board wipes, and maybe even the secret that takes the opponent's next minion to 1 HP is good.  They're also extremely hard to kill.

Rogue, I think, plays more like Arena Rogue than any current constructed build... but Arena Rogue doesn't seem all that bad in the format.  They have a good curve and well rounded suite of abilities, and are free to play cards like Master of Disguise (the Yeti of this format?!),  Patient Assassin, Assassinate and maybe even Sprint.  This type of rogue doesn't appear in current constructed is because it gets shut down pretty hard by collateral anti-aggro hate, Defender of Argus and that sort of thing, but in this format I think a lot of its natural checks are lessened or gone.  It doesn't look GREAT, don't ask me how they beat Hunters, but it looks playable.

Warrior is in a sort of similar position to Rogue, forced into a midrange build, but while Rogue has a lot of medium power toolkit cards, Warrior is heavy on enablers but light on workhorses.  They do however have weapons.  Lots of weapons.  In a low taunt, low minion game, weapons are kings of efficiency.  So what if warrior can never keep a creature on the board, all they need to do is draw various flavors of axe and upgrades thereof and chop your face.  Or your minions' faces, I hear Gorehowls are pretty good in pseudo-limited.  I have no idea how good they are but they don't seem completely awful.

Mage... ew.  Mage has the worst set of class minions for this format.  Water Elementals and that's basically it because everyone else is packing heavy removal.  They have to finish with burn, but they also can't finish with burn because they'll die to creatures, and they have no easy way to capitalize on freezing things or mirror imaging.  I think Mage in this format is all but forced into a Secrets build, just so they can play Kirin Tors and maybe Ethereal Arcanists to try and threaten some form of board presence.  These builds are very high variance, and all the more so by possible variations in what secrets you want to run so ehhh head hurts.  They do murder everything the opponent plays, of course.

Priest is bad, everyone knows Priest is bad, but everyone tries to make it work anyway, and when it DOES work it works on mostly class cards, so they should be sort of okay right?  Well... no not really, because unlike the top tier classes, the neutrals Priest is losing are things they really did specifically rely on.  The Priest cardpool just does not contain reasonable replacements for the game-ending legendaries they need to close out matches.  Velen and Temple Enforcers and trying to mind control stuff, yeah that is not really going to cut it to actually kill people with.  There's no substitute for Crazed Alchemist or Injured Blademaster, unless you want to go down the dark paths of Lightspawns and Divine Spirit/Inner Fire gimmicks (and you don't actually want to walk those paths in a format where everyone is maindecking all the hard removal they do have.)  Shadowform is seeing a bit of constructed play currently, but without any ability to be aggressive and with most other classes not running great ping targets, it doesn't seem great here.  Cabal Shadow Priest and Shadow Madness lose all their good common targets.  Priest is bad.

Warlock is worse though.  The price of the best hero power for exploiting any neutral cardbase is a really terrible class cardbase.  You ever try actually drafting demons in arena?  You need one of two things to make it work: A. a good mix of neutral minions to be supported by the occasional giant Doomguard/Void Terror/Pit Lord/curve-fitting Felguard or B. 4+ Flame Imps and other 1 drops, yolo all day.  In this format neither is possible.  Warlock can't aggro, can't really control, and has almost no minions it can play without crippling drawbacks.  They do have Jaraxxus, Jaraxxus does win games.  But I have a very hard time envisioning Warlock winning vs any other class in this format if they can't hit exactly a drawn out game into Jaraxxus in a favorable position.  And even then, there's been many a game where I've had the Eredar Lord of the Burning Legion on the field and still gotten crushed, and that's just an even greater possibility when there's no taunt givers or HP restoration available. 

Unless you want to run Sacrificial Pact, of course.  For your Pit Lords and stuff. 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on April 29, 2014, 09:08:35 AM
How about Neutral, no hero ability, just the minion cards.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on May 03, 2014, 02:33:20 AM
I think the All-Neutral Non-Hero would crush everything else in the format.  Maybe not "with ease" but I want to say with ease anyway.  Even with no hero power, Neutral has access to at least two different and powerful decks...

- Murloc Face Aggro.  All the murlocs, Leper Gnome, Abusive Sarge, Wolfrider, Arcane Golem, SSC and DID, Leeroy, Mukla, Owls, whatever else you want.  Similar to current Warlock Aggro decks, lacking some of the burst and the hero power but making up for it with minion density and being well positioned in a taunt-light format.

- General goodstuff control.  Cheap value critters like Loot Hoarder and Harvest Golem, the Ancient Watcher + silencers/tauntgivers package, a lot of strong taunters to survive, and going up to Cairne, Sylvanas, Ragnaros, Onyxia, Ysera, all your favorite neutral legends.  Whatever curve you want and all the best value guys and yetis and etc.

30 minion decks seem strong when other decks are only running 7-15 and lacking various essentials.  Sea Giants seem strong in 30 minion decks.  Blood Knight combos seem potentially strong.  Earthen Ring Farseer seems strong.  Sunwalker seems strong.  Abomination seems strong.  Faceless Manipulator seems strong.   Not having a hero power, direct removal or card advantage engines seems weak, but they can run card draw minions and pseudoremoval if need be.

Out of all the class-only decks, Shaman and Hunter are the only ones I see having much of a chance, and Druid vs the aggro version.   But I think Neutral is squarely on top of the pack, yes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K. on May 05, 2014, 10:49:36 AM
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2014/05/05/hearthboned
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K. on May 23, 2014, 02:57:11 AM
Hearthstone

So I've been playing a lot of Arena lately, and here's my thoughts on how the various characters rank in this mode (which is a sort of random draft build without the normal 2 card limitations on cards).

1. Paladin - I find Paladin kind of underwhelming in constructed play but it really shines here.  Particularly due to this guy:

(http://media-hearth.cursecdn.com/avatars/38/138/191.png)

This is seriously the best card in the format.  It's so versatile, giving you another attacker while protecting whatever you need protecting at the time.  Paladin epics and legendary are all useful, so you can't really get screwed on them.  But what Paladin really excels at is having the last card on the field.  Even a 1/1 Reinforcement becomes a holy terror when you drop Blessing of Kings on him.  Consecration is also an excellent card in this format with all the low hp weenies.

2. Mage - This would be number one but Jaina really, really hates Divine Shield.  Other than that?  You're golden.  Unlimited aoe damage spells?  Yes please.  Jaina wins by making sure you never get to have a monster under your control at the end of her turn.  She plays one little 2/2 generic and pokes you with it the entire game while she systematically destroys everything you play.  And then she hits you with Pyroblast on turn 10 because fuck you, you thought you had a chance to win still.

3. Priest - Priest is another staller.  Just plays his stupidly high hp characters and defends until he eventually draws 2 Divine Spirits and an Inner Fire and kills you in one turn.  Biggest weakness to priest is vulnerability to rush decks.  But if you can't finish him off he will beat you in the lategame.

4. Rogue - Rushing is good in this format, and Rogue is good at it.  Defias Ringleader and Cold Blood show up frequently in the card draws and they get the job done nicely.  Speaking of which, Coin+Defias Ringleader+Shadowstep+Defias Ringleader on the first turn is guaranteed to make your opponent shit his pants.  Rogue epics are pretty weak and she tends to lose if the match lasts past turn 7.

5. Shaman - like Paladin, Shaman excels at keeping more monsters on the field than your opponent.  Which is frequently the most important thing in this format.  Dust Devil is stupidly powerful against anyone but Mage.  And Blood Lust is an outstanding finisher.

6. Warlock - If rushing is good, why isn't warlock higher?  Primarily because warlock doesn't have constructed rushing.  You might start collecting Murlocs, then the game gives you Pirates instead, then something else.  Potpurri rush isn't bad, but there's better things out there.

7. Druid - Druid's cards are really expensive, and in this format you're not guaranteed to get a proper selection of Innervate or Wild Growth.  Druid does have some nice monster buffs like Paladin, but lacks Paladin's protection for them.  Druid hates facing rush decks.

8. Hunter - Hunter really misses his constructed decks.  You might not get your Buzzards.  You might not get your Hyenas.  You might not get Unleash the Hounds.  And you just might not get a large number of beasts in general.  One time the game gave me so many generics that I only ended up with 3 beasts total.  Yeah, wow.  Hunter does have nice removal though, which at least puts him ahead of...

9. Warrior - Yeah, Warrior decks need to be constructed, period.  Random cards just do not get the job done for Warrior.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 09, 2014, 04:56:03 PM
So like...apparently Coldlight Oracle King Mukula rogue can actually be pretty good.  As opposed to Day 9's silly version (which was a slow deck) the trick seems to be to build it very aggro.

Trump getting rolled by it and holding on to a teddy bear:

http://www.twitch.tv/trumpsc/b/536665961?t=5h42m38s

The decklist with commentary/strategy, and notes about how he hit rank 2 legend:

http://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/2719t5/2_na_backspaces_coldlight_rogue/

I want to build this deck....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 08, 2014, 05:28:59 PM
Played EDH at lunch yesterday; loaned out decks to people.  The following problems happened.

1. One deck that I handed out (Raksha) had a lot of "wow, this is way more complicated than I remember Magic being."  She drew a lot of like...sword of fire and Ice and Umezawa's Jitte and such cards with overfull textboxes.  Another deck we gave out, which was supposed to be the "beginner deck"--basically a deck with big creatures that attack, the new pilot's comment was "you guys seemed to have an endgame and were comboing cards; was I playing my deck wrong?  How do I do that?"

Trying to put together a deck with combos and endgame, but which is not too complicated for beginners.

General

Roon of the Hidden Realm (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376474)

The idea is to have a bunch of enters the battlefield abilities.  It should be fairly obvious to new players "Oh, every turn I should pick one of these I want to have happen again, and then target that with Roon."

NOTE: there are two templates for this.  "When this creature comes into play do X" (the old template) and "When this creature enters the battlefield do X" (the new template).  For consistency's sake we're going to go the same way on these every time, and that way is going to be "Enters the Battlefield".  If a card isn't printed with that template, too bad.

Other important synergy

Angel of Glory's Rise (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=239993)

For some reason, I really want to make this card work, and it's not overly complicated.  There are two measures of complexity that I have been watching:

1. number of lines of text.  Note that you can mentally subtract about 1 line when it has "When Angel of Glory's Rise enters the battlefiled"--this text will get mentally "chunked" very quickly upon learning the deck.
2. Static effects on the battlefield, and triggered effects on the battlefield.  Once effects (and effects that are re-triggered) don't have memory issues, but people will forget about stuff they have in play.

Angel of Glory's Rise is 5 lines, but with an Enters the Balttefield line so basically 4 lines, and Flying is one of the few keywords that don't need to be explained to people.

Anyway, the point is, there will be a focus on humans.


The next mini-synergy is the Splicer cycle; either running five, or maybe even all six:

Blade Splicer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233068) Maul Splicer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233062) and friends

They're a little bit on the wordy side, but you know what I loved when I was new?  Slivers.  My friend also pointed out that newbies tend to love tokens.  And they all have a similar template and art.  And even if you get them on their own, they make 3/3s so that's cool.  And they're all humans for Angel of Glory's Rise.


Here are the notes I've taken so far.

Mana base:
All lands add 1 mana.  Include some simple tap duals like guildgates.  Obviously the tri-land.  Nothing with weird choices when it enters the battlefield.
 
blunt force commander stuff
This deck is meant to be given to beginners, and not necessarily played every lunch, so we can put in some top-end cards with a lot of blunt force, since a lot of such cards are actually quite straightforward, like 2 lines of text.
 
Storm Herd (3 lines of text)
Boundless Realms (4 lines of text)
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Agur (4 lines of text (ok technically 5 due to poor linebreaks))
Craterhoof Behemoth (6 lines of text) (bonus: combos with Roon)
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (3 lines of text)
Mirari's Wake (4 lines of text, decent amount of memory stuff, though; I've seen new players trip over this one)
Consecrated Sphinx (3 lines of text)
Avacyn, Angel of Hope (3 lines of text)
Novablast Wurm (2 lines of text)
Memnarch (4 lines of text)
Blatant Thievery (2 lines of text)
Priviliged Position (3 lines of text)
Lightning Greaves (2 lines of text)
Inkwell Leviathan (1 line of text)
Keiga, the Tide Star(2 lines of text)
Tidespout Tyrant (3 lines of text--maybe redundant, though--probably more fun for people to get this effect through comboing their commander with man-o'-war)
Time Stretch (2 lines of text)
Reya Dawnbringer (4 lines of text)
Omniscence (2 lines of text)
True Conviction (2 lines of text)
Serra Ascendant (4 lines of text)

I think take everything with 2 lines of text, possibly excepting stuff that's heavy on keywords (Inkwell Leviathan has 3 words, but a beginner will probably ask what all three mean).

And then pick and choose from the 3-4 liners.  Like...Consecrated Sphinx even the veteran player we need to keep reminding him "hey, I drew a card with this spell, are you drawing 2?"  Jin Gitaxias is probably actually simpler since you don't need to pay attention to opponents.
 
Reject pile: Cards that are good, but have like...seven lines of text:
 
Rite of Replication (7 lines of text)
Prime Speaker Zegana (7 lines of text)
Frost Titan (7 lines of text)
Solemn Simulacrum (7 lines of text)
Progenitor Mimic (7 lines of text)
Duplicant (7 lines of text)
Deadwood Treefolk (8 lines of text with the reminder text)
Avenger of Zendikar (8 lines of text)
Vorniclex, Voice of Hunger (7 lines of text)
Deadeye Navigator (8 lines of text with reminder text)
Karmic Guide (7 lines of text)
Phyrexian Metamorph (6 lines of text)
Birthing Pod (8 lines of text, library searching, yeah no)
Sundial of the Infinite (6 lines of text, and relies on weird timing stuff)
Prophet of Kruphix (5 lines of text...but also has an unexplained "flash" keyword and a lot of memory stuff; on the fence here)
Woodfall Primus (7 lines of text...granted 4 of those are persist).
Sun Titan (6 lines of text, but people seem to forget "oh I should attack with this to get this other stuff to happen")
Noble Hierarch (4 lines of text, but everyone forgets exalted, there's simpler mana accelerators)
Snapcaster Mage (8 lines of text)
Spike Weaver (8 lines of text)
Perplexing Chimera (7 lines of text)
Brutalizer Exarch (7 lines of text)
Angel of Serenity (7 lines of text)
Reveillark (8 lines of text, 5 if we ignore evoke, but it's also a leaves trigger instead of an enters trigger)
Captain of the Watch (6 lines of text)
Geist Honored Monk (6 lines of text)
Knight Captain of Eos (5 lines of text, and stalls like crazy; not ideal for lunch games; close to simple enough)
Lavina of the Tenth (7 lines of text)
Cloudgoat Ranger (7 lines of text)
Treasure Mage/Trinket Mage (6 lines of text, and searching a deck you don't know)
Masked Admirers (5 lines of text -- iffy on this, though; triggers from graveyard and all that; there might be better options)
Land Tax (7 lines of text, requires counting and memory)
Karmametra, God of Harvests (7 lines of text)
Faith's Fetters (7 lines of text)
 
Reject pile - wrong templating
 
Palincrhon (5 lines of text, most of which are short; shame about this one)
 
Combo stuffs
 
Seedborn Muse (3 lines of text...but important memory stuff)
Coiling Oracle (4 lines of text)
Armada Wurm (5 lines of text)
Acidic Slime (4 lines of text)
Clone (3 lines of text)
Eternal Witness (3 lines of text)
Farhaven Elf (4 lines of text)
Mulldrifter (6 lines of text,  3 lines of text if we ignore evoke)
Mystic Snake (4 lines of text)
Restoration Angel (6 lines of text, but 2 of them are keywords)
Stonehorn Dignitary (4 lines of text)
Wall of Blossoms (3 lines of text)
Wall of Omens (3 lines of text)
Wood Elves (4 lines of text)
Conjurer's Closet (4 lines of text and memory stuff)
War Priest of Thune (3 lines of text)
Angel of Glory's Rise (5 lines of text)
Mistmeadow Witch (4 lines of text)
Archaeomancer (4 lines of text)
Venser, Shaper Savant (4 lines of text)
Bane of Progress (5 lines of text)
Luminate Primordial (6 lines of text)
Thragtusk (5 lines of text)
Angel of Finality (4 lines of text)
Banisher Priest (4 lines of text)
Aether Adept (3 lines of text) (Man-o'-War exists too, but wrong template)
Borderland Ranger (5 lines of text)
Sylvan Ranger (4 lines of text)
Sea Gate Oracle (5 lines of text)
Master Thief (4 lines of text)
Village Bell-Ringer (3 lines of text)
Blade Splicer (6 lines of text, but larger font)
Master Splicer (4 lines of text)
Maul Splicer (6 lines of text, but larger font)
Vital Splicer (4 lines of text)
Wing Splicer (6 lines of text, but larger font)
Body Double (4 lines of text)
Sower of Temptation (4 lines of text)
Indrink Stomphowler (3 lines of text)
Sunblast Angel (3 lines of text)
Nephalia Smuggler (3 lines of text)
Loxodon Hierarch (4 lines of text)
Ondu Giant (5 lines of text, big font, though)
Soul of the Harvest (4 lines of text; one of which is trample; some memory)
Djin of Infinite Deceits (4 lines of text; one of which is flying; requires learning about "owns" vs "controls")
 
In general, it looks like enters the battlefield triggers don't get below about 3 lines, which is fine.  I'd say put the cutoff at 4 unless there is a pretty specific reason to go over (like mana fixing, or being part of a theme).  Remember that mentally the words "when X enters the battlefield" are like -1 line, so this cutoff should maybe be 3 for cards that don't have that.

Basic Control

We want control.  If there is a problem thing, it's nice to be able to blow it up.  There isn't really a good excuse for it being complex or wordy; it's not the fun focus of the deck; can probably keep these 3 lines or less, honestly.  Note: I'm avoiding stuff that really slows down the game like Wrath of God; games should end.
 
Swords to Plowshares (2 lines of text)
Control Magic (2 lines of text)
Treachery (3 lines of text)
Aura Shards (4 lines of text)
Bant Charm (4 lines of text)
Trygon Predator (5 lines of text)
Path to Exile (5 lines of text)
Banishing Light (5 lines of text; simpler than Oblivion Ring)
Return to Dust (4 lines of text)
Condemn (3 lines of text)
Evacuation (2 lines of text; synergizes decently)
Beast Within (3 lines of text)
Counterspell (1 line of text)
Curse of the Swine (4 lines of text)
Archon of Justice (3 lines of text)
 
Ramp/Card draw

These can be kept fairly simple.  A lot of these 3 liners are deceptively not really 3 lines

Birds of Paradise: (3 lines of text)
Bloom Tender: (3 lines of text, but somewhat complex)
Oracle of Mul Daya: (6 lines of text, but big font)
Brainstorm: (3 lines of text)
Explosive Vegetation: (4 lines of text, big font)
Skyshroud Claim (3 lines of text)/Ranger's Path (3 lines of text)
Chromatic Lantern (4 lines of text, but simplify things)
Prismatic Omen (2 lines of text)
Cultivate (5 lines of text)
Kodama's Reach (5 lines of text)
Harmonize(1 line of text)
Gilded Lotus (2 lines of text)
Sol Ring (1 line of text)
Darksteel Ingot (3 lines of text, but only due to poor linebreaks)
Elvish Piper (2 lines of text)
Exploration (2 lines of text, but does have memory issues)
Show and Tell (4 lines of text)
Rampant Growth (4 lines of text)

I think I do want to run Elvish Piper and Show And Tell, because they are hilarious and splashy (and I liked Elvish Piper when I was new).  Note: there's plenty of this in the combo section, so we don't need to go overboard here.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 09, 2014, 06:02:02 AM
Updates on the Roon deck...

Sunblast Angel is in.  Turns out it's a sweeper newbies get because it's one-sided.  Also turns out it doesn't make a soft lock with roon, since he taps.

And my friend really wanted Sleep for the Sleep into Sunblast Angel combo.

+1 Sleep (3 lines of text)

Mystic Snake is a no; the recursion doesn't work due to Roon doing a delayed bounce, and even if it did, obnoxios softlock.


Human count is going to be lowish; want about 20 to make Angel of Glory's Rise good.

We were discussing removal, and how white removal is complicated.  He suggested Desert Twister which...probably makes the cut, just for simplicity.

Desert Twister (1 line of text)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 09, 2014, 06:56:05 AM
Ok, human count.  Ideally, I want a count around 20 to be enough that Angel will usually grab at least a couple.  Here's the humans if I run all the ones mentioned above:

Eternal Witness
War Priest of Thune
Archaeomancer
Venser, Shaper Savant
Banisher Priest
Aether Adept
Borderland Ranger
Sea Gate Oracle
Master Thief
Village Bell-Ringer
Splicer
Splicer
Splicer
Splicer
Splicer
Splicer
Nephalia Smuggler

In addition:

Mangara of Corondor

Removal with 2 lines of text, human, and actually combos quite well with the general, although the timing rule is obscure.  From oracle:

9/25/2006   If Mangara of Corondor leaves the battlefield before the ability resolves, the targeted permanent will still be exiled.
9/25/2006   If the target permanent becomes an illegal target, the ability will be countered and Mangara will remain on the battlefield.

Azusa, Lost but Seeking

It's a replacement for Exploration; possibly worse in the deck, but it's a human.



Other options include...

Prophet of Kruprix (very clearly more complex than the competition)
Noble Hierarch (Ditto)
Captain of the Watch

Hmm...ok, so Captain of the watch...six lines of text, so that's more than anything else we have.  What bothers me more, though, is that it gives +1 to Soldiers, and the general is a soldier.  Like...there could randomly be one or two characters who would be soliders.  It's just more to think about.  Probably more stuff to think about for a relatively thowaway card.

Speaking of which...while it's not a human...

Trostani's Summoner: this one I could certainly get behind, despite 7 lines of text.  It just makes dudes.  Not a human, though, and seven lines of text....

In other news...also not a human but...

Pelakka wurm.  I don't really have any CIP heal effects, and it's one of the biggest ones, while being one of the simplest (the others have more complicated effects than draw a card, or more complicated heals).  Plus it got played in Standard constructed, so it's a solid enough card.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 09, 2014, 10:17:11 AM
Ok, so let's fill out the deck potentially.

Going to assume 40ish land.

20 humans

This leaves 40 cards unassigned

10ish ramp spells, whether these are ETB creatures or just spells.

10ish control cards

10ish hugely expensive bombs

10ish other ETB creatures

something like that?  Let's see...

Combo:

Angel of Glory's Rise
Acidic Slime
Clone
Sunblast Angel
Pelakka Wurm
Coiling Oracle
Wall of Omens
Wall of Blossoms
Mulldrifter
Sower of Temptation
Soul of the Harvest
Indrink Stomphowler
Seedborn Muse

(13, easy to cut a cycler.  Would not mind cutting Indrink Stomphowler when we already have Acidic Slime)

Big EDH bombs

Storm Herd
Omniscence
Boundless Realms
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Agur
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Avacyn, Angel of Hope
Blatant Thievery
Lightning Greaves
Inkwell Leviathan
Time Stretch
True Conviction

(hmm...11 again.  Jin-Gitaxias has the most lines, but there's lots of linebreaks so not really that wordy.  Hmm...maybe cut Storm Herd of this list?  It tends to win on its own, and interacts with nothing else in the deck.  Has the potential to give the feeling of "I had this brilliant plan, but it didn't matter because 40 pegasuses").

Control

Desert Twister
Sleep
Swords to Plowshares
Condemn
Beast Within
Counterspell
Control Magic
Treachery
Evacuation
Archon of Justice

(10 cards...honestly that's enough when several of the bounce cards are also removal.  Would not mind cutting Treachery as there's already a decent amount of stealing in the deck)

Ramp

Farhaven Elf
Wood Elves
Sylvan Ranger
Ondu Giant
Show and Tell
Elvish Piper
Chromatic Lantern
Prismatic Omen
Sol Ring
Explosive Vegetation

10.  Would not mind cutting the Sylvan Ranger.


Ok, so drop Sylvan Ranger, Storm Herd, Treachery, Indrink Stomphowler.  That adds up to 40.

Wait, general...hmm, running 39 lands is fairly normal.  So...add Roon, subtract one land.  Actually...I would not mind subtracting Sol Ring for a 40th land.  It may be ridiculously good, but it taps for 2 and I think new players forget about that.  Also doesn't fix colour screw.





EDIT: well small update: wood elves has no "battlefield" template printing, so

-1 wood elves

Sylvan Ranger can thus go back in

+1 Sylvan Ranger

And...while Noble Hierarch is unnecessarily complex, know what card is human and a 1 mana manadork?

+1 Avacyn's Pilgrim (going down to 39 lands).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 11, 2014, 07:02:10 AM
You say "I had this brilliant plan, but it didn't matter because 40 pegasuses" like it is a bad thing.  It is probably the Whitest thing a girl could get say.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 11, 2014, 08:31:11 AM
You say "I had this brilliant plan, but it didn't matter because 40 pegasuses" like it is a bad thing.  It is probably the Whitest thing a girl could get say.

Well, fair, but what would you cut in its place?

Omniscence
Boundless Realms
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Agur
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Avacyn, Angel of Hope
Blatant Thievery
Lightning Greaves
Inkwell Leviathan
Time Stretch
True Conviction

I think Omniscience, Jin-Gitaxias, Elesh Norn, Avacyn, Blatant Thievery, and Time Stretch deliver a fantastic amount of power in relatively little complexity.

Lightning Greaves is an option I guess, but it's also a 2 drop, in a deck very low on 2 drops.

Boundless Realms is really fun to cast.  Although I guess this deck doesn't have all that many mana sinks, so going from 7 mana to 14 mana...it lets you cast 10 mana spells if you have them, but that's about it.  Sure, I guess this is a candidate.

Inkwell Leviathan...so the draw of this is the "one line of text".  The downside of this is that the one line is all keywords.  And kind-of obscure keywords at that (islandwalk and shroud, looking at you two).

True Conviction...is one of two sources of lifegain in the deck?  I see a lot of relatively new players adding it.  That said, the power level on it is not super high, and it does have the Inkwell Leviathan problem of "What's Lifelink?"



Hmm...sure.

+1 Storm Herd

So...line count may be undescriptive; Boundless Realms is 4 lines, but it's actually kinda tiny font.  Counting the number of characters...

Boundless Realms: 163 chars
Storm Herd: 102 chars
True Conviction: 55 chars (+54 for double strike reminder text.  +70 for lifelink reminder text)
Lightning Greaves: 97 chars (+149 chars for equipment reminder text)
Inkwell Leviathan: 28 chars (+69 chars for Islandwalk.  +149 chars for trample.  +58 chars for shroud)

Granted, Storm Herd has flying, but I feel like people generally don't ask to have flying explained to them.  I also feel like Trample is not really 149 characters worth of mandatory information.

Lightning Greaves is a bit of a mess though.  I have seen new players look at equipment and ask "what do I do with this?"  And it's not really intuitive equipment; it's not like Bonesplitter "oh this is an axe".  0 equip cost is kind-of weird.  It protects your dude, but then makes you unable to target it yourself.  Yeah...

-1 Lightning Greaves

By comparison

Priviliged Position: 97 chars (+33 for hybrid reminder text)

Yeah, that's a much more intuitive harder to screw yourself over.

+1 Priviliged Position

Which means I still need to remove one...

-1 Boundless Realms

Yeah...the deck doesn't have a strong need to go up to 20 lands, say.  And all three of Boundless Realms/True Conviction/Inkwell are in the 160+ character range once you account for reminder text, but I think the other two being more condensed wording helps.  If you're evaluating your hand, and look at Inkwell Leviathan, you can very quickly figure out that it's big, which is all you will usually need to know about it.


EDIT: while we're at it, might as well compare them all:

Omniscience - 75 chars

Jin Gitaxias - 114 chars (+ some explanation for flash)

Elesh Norn - 93 chars (+ some explanation for vigilance)

Avacyn - 94 (+ some explanation for vigilance and maybe indestructible)

Blatant Thievery - 74

Time Stretch - 52
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 11, 2014, 12:32:26 PM
I was really joking, but an actual analysis of the cards I know?  (Still on phone, will look at shiny things when home... When not listening to music.

Lightning Greaves vs Storm Herd I think flying tends to parse much much easier with new players than Shroud does.  There is a reason Shroud wasn't a key word originally.  It interacts really frustratingly to someone who has started to understand the complexities of things like the stack and how you can use the Greaves in combos can be pretty complex (Target the creature first so it is low on the stack, use instants etcetcetc) to keep in mind.

40 Pegasus is 40 Pegasus in comparison.

Lifelink also fits in the "wasn't key worded early for a reason" category,
But it works easier, so can see that one working.

That said.  Greaves are a great 2 drop and they really are a cool flexible card.  I would have trouble dropping them from a deck.

Edit - Boundless Realms is probably a good candidate.  I think the biggest thing it lets you do is dump like Omniscience sooner?  Eh.  I think your other Ramp stuff covers your mana growth fine.

For Inkwell Leviathan, my personal hate for landwalk and how uneven it is for how much it hoses a player is pretty strong and I would think about dropping it for all that Landwalk probably applies more frequently in EDH than I am used to.  That said a 7 power unblockable that I can't target pushes me in my fuck you I concede zones anyway (Especially because I am playing blue and I don't have a suite full of untargetted effects).  Also I forget if Trample is hard for people that are new or is just hard for old players because of changes to Trample rules.

There isn't anything else I would drop.  Including Lightning Greaves.  They are just too sexy.  And as ehehhhhhhhhh as I am on Shroud for newbies, I think a 0 cost equip artifact is a damn good way to train people on it AND 0 cost utility equipment is good to show new people A) how Equipment is different than Auras and to use them differently than Auras.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 11, 2014, 05:52:57 PM
Well...training people on equipment and auras is cool and all that, except this deck has none.  It also has no planeswalkers.  It also has no lands that bounce other lands, or blow up other lands, or do things other than just tap for exactly 1 mana.


Like...cheap and tons of utility is good, but I've already shown that I'm not afraid to cut Sol Ring, and Bant Charm:

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=137931

(Bant Charm being like...in the running for best EDH removal ever.  Sol Ring being ridiculously overpowered).


This deck doesn't need to teach people everything, they just need to have a good time playing it, and feel like they're figuring out combos and making an impact on the multiplayer match instead of spectating as more synergistic decks clash with each other.  As a result, the "combo" cards are slightly more complex, and have more stuff to think about.  The awesome bombs are a little bit simpler, stuff that doesn't really require much thought.  And the more utility stuff like removal (and greaves kind of falls into this category)...I'm really trying to strip those down to stuff that does exactly what it sounds like it does, and requires little to no explanation.  One problem with greaves: the printed version that explains how to use equipment uses the old template ("comes into play" rather than "enters the battlefield").  And more recent reprints just assume that the player knows what equipment is.


Inkwell Leviathan screwing over people with Islands concerns me very little.  The one consistent Island player in the group plays Pariah's Shield on indestructible  creatures and thus will often be taking no damage anyway.  Also 7 damage kills in 6 turns.  A 6 turn clock on a 9 drop in EDH is...decent, not really unfair or anything.  It's not on the same level of scary as summoning 40 pegasuses.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 12, 2014, 06:52:03 AM
So...trying to decide if there's something cooler than Priviliged Position for the last bomb slot; looking at these right now...

Hoverguard Sweepers
Novablast wurm
Drogskol Reaver
Windreader Sphinx
Regal Force

EDIT: Hoverguard Sweepers is a no; wrong template ("Comes into play").  Drogskol Reaver and Windreader Sphinx trigger off of weird stuff that isn't always easy to remember, so probably also no on those.  Regal Force also has the wrong template ("Comes into play").

More options

Platinum Angel
Platinum Emperion
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 21, 2014, 04:44:00 AM
So I can clearly see you invest a fair bit into this here, but want to ask some of the process anyway.

I am starting back up in Magic with the actual physical product instead of just faceroll in Duels of the Planeswalker, specifically looking to jump in to EDH.

How the hell do you go about starting to build a deck for this?  I threw together a deck quickly based mostly in the cards we got out of a box of each of the Return to Ravnica block that we bought.  Suffice to say it sucked pretty hard. (Trying to make something generic Boros ish with a splash of other Red and White stuff with Tajic as Commander, was slow and sucked.  No way to accelerate at all)

I am wondering what your starting point really is?  I found it hard to sit with cards and try to craft something.  I would really like to be able to sit back and pick a few things as a starting point and then be able to work down from a macro level instead of being looking through a bunch of cards and trying to put together something coherent.

Do you find a hand full of cards that seem neat and blow out a bigger idea from there or do you make a big pile and then cut down from there?  Is there some kind of tool you can use to build things without doing it with physical cards?  I feel like I lose the forest for the trees there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 21, 2014, 04:37:57 PM
So I can clearly see you invest a fair bit into this here, but want to ask some of the process anyway.

I am starting back up in Magic with the actual physical product instead of just faceroll in Duels of the Planeswalker, specifically looking to jump in to EDH.

How the hell do you go about starting to build a deck for this?  I threw together a deck quickly based mostly in the cards we got out of a box of each of the Return to Ravnica block that we bought.  Suffice to say it sucked pretty hard. (Trying to make something generic Boros ish with a splash of other Red and White stuff with Tajic as Commander, was slow and sucked.  No way to accelerate at all)

I am wondering what your starting point really is?  I found it hard to sit with cards and try to craft something.  I would really like to be able to sit back and pick a few things as a starting point and then be able to work down from a macro level instead of being looking through a bunch of cards and trying to put together something coherent.

Do you find a hand full of cards that seem neat and blow out a bigger idea from there or do you make a big pile and then cut down from there?  Is there some kind of tool you can use to build things without doing it with physical cards?  I feel like I lose the forest for the trees there.

Start with mana.  Most casual but decent EDH decks are basically ramp decks that want to be at least 50% mana...which often means 40 lands, and 10 mana rocks.  In red/white the good mana that's not banned or insanely rare would be like...

(tapping for 1)
Boros Signet[url=http://[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376296]Darksteel Ingot]
[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376296]Darksteel Ingot (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247373)
Coldsteel Heart (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=121123)
Everflowing Chalice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220534)
Fellwar Stone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247152)
Fire Diamond (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=15853)
Marble Diamond (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=197005)
Mind Stone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189228)
Star Compass (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45463)
(tapping for 2)
Sol Ring (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383101)
Worn Powerstone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=210137) (and even Ur-Golem's Eye (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=83510) I've seen in decklists, but it compares poorly to...)
(tapping for 3)
Thran Dynamo (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373331)
Gilded Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373335)
Dreamstone Hedron (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247395)
(land search)
Land Tax (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201153)
Gift of Estates (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=84504)
Knight of the White Orchid (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243423)


But use what you can get your hands on obviously.  In Return to Ravnica there's a few options that are fine:

Boros Cluestone (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368997)
Boros Keyrune (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366413)
Chromatic Lantern (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=290542)

That said if you have a limited card pool, and are having trouble getting to 10 cards in your deck that ramp you, you might find that it's easier to put together a deck if you have green in it, since green has lots of "search your library for a basic land and put it into play" cards.  Like Cultivate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376290) and shit.



Other notes: it sounds like your deck is aggressive.  Aggressive decks tend not to be all that great, because you draw attention to yourself, and then if an opponent is holding a "destroy target creature" card, they might use it on you (instead of saving it for the person who hasn't played anything yet, who is probably actually a much bigger threat).  Red/white also tend to have trouble drawing cards, so it can find itself with an empty hand if you don't add some artifact drawing (but there is very little artifact card drawing, and it tends to be rare and expensive).


The rest of your deck doesn't matter too much/depends on what kind of decks you're facing.  If you have mana and card draw under control, you can probably just throw in a bunch of shit that looks cool, and some removal, and you'll be fine.  Depends how tryhard your opponents are, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 22, 2014, 04:57:19 AM
Thanks!  That is mostly stuff I had been forewarned of, but making a deck at 8 in the morning after going to bed at someone else' house doesn't make for a great deck.

I should have grabbed the clue stone and Guild rune thingo.  Did the noob mistake of forgetting that artifact mana is faster than an extra land in hand.

Suffice to say my older brother's U/G ramp deck worked a bit better than mine.

Neither worked as well as an old deck that my older brother built up to be an EDH deck that my younger brother played and stomped us both into the ground without getting hit.

Good draw, not getting mana issues and just a strong creature heavy R/G deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 03, 2014, 04:35:22 AM
Ok, well, finally Went out and got some cards for this.  There were some "10 for $5" rare boxes, so I got a bunch of stuff there.  Some of which was not on my original list

Notably, $0.5 Thragtusk, and I wasn't able to find Pelakka Wurm.  You know for all that I think Pelakka Wurm is a slightly better teaching tool, I'm not crying over this.

Could not find Wall of Omens, but I did find Elvish Visionary; yeah ok whatever: same difference.

So...Somberwald Sage is a human (and I can't find Avacyn's Pilgrim; might just make that substitution...or run both)



And then there's the "maybes".  Cards I just found, and should perhaps consider including.

Biomantic Mastery--draw like...20 cards because it's EDH.
Momentary Blink--It's good and stuff.
Ranger's Path--not keen on the fact that it doesn't fix, but it's good.
Gallows at Willow Hill--LOLOLOL Human Tribal!  I picked it up thinking this was awesome.  Now I'm thinking it's probably too inconsistent.  It's still tempting though!
Sphinx of Uthun--A bit on the complex side.  On the other hand, I don't have a mulldrifter, so I guess this can sub in.
Reya Dawnbringer--relatively simple, and at least somewhat synergistic.
Captain of the watch--Was cut for being a bit on the complex side, but then again, Human, ETB effect...I wouldn't mind cutting, say, Priviliged Position for this or something.
Yavimaya Elder--I picked this up when I noticed that it was a human....  A little on the complex side, and no etb, but still.
Cultivate--You know, even though I didn't plan to put this into this deck, it'll go into something.
Reclamation Sage--certainly a card that wouldn't hurt.
Stormtide Leviathan--Big bad bomb; could squeeze it in.
Precursor Golem--funny with the Golem theme.  8 lines of text, but funny with the golem theme.
Terastodon--A little on the complex side, but can sub in for a bomb or removal or something.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 04, 2014, 01:01:09 AM
ASDF what?  Sensor Splicer, unlike the other 5 in the cycle, isn't a human.

OK, no, cutting that.  It was already the worst of the 5 by far.  By far.  The only one for which the power/toughness total is less than the casting cost.

I do want to squeeze in Gallows at Willow Hill (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=262674).  It's probably kinda bad in the deck because there often won't be 3 humans.  It's probably a little on the complex side.  But goddamn the card oozes awesome.  It goes in for Sensor splicer.

Captain of the Watch goes in over Priviliged Position, with the logic of "Eh, I own one".  (Also human with good bounce effect--the downsides on it still stand but...)

Stormtide Leviathan goes in over Inkwell Leviathan.  "Eh, I own one."

Biomantic Mastery goes in over Soul of the Forest for two reasons.  One, draw 40 cards is a lot flashier and more exciting than ongoing card advantage.  Two Soul of the Forest has the whole memory issues.  (Also: "Eh, I own one")

Sphinx of Uthun temporarily subs in for Mulldrifter; it will be subbing out (it's debatable which one is better, but Mulldrifter is certainly simpler).

Reya Dawnbringer subs in for Boundless Realms.  "Eh, I own one." -- the questionableness of Boundless Realms has been brought up before, and there's now at least two mana sources that care about creatures (Elvish Piper and Somberwald Sage).  Also, I know I probably listed Reya as 6 lines of text, and Boundless as 4, but I think Boundless actually has more text.

Yavimaya Elder is tempting due to the human tag, but ultimately stays out--tons of lines of text, no bounce synergy....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 04, 2014, 07:32:29 AM
One quick substitution: I have the wrong wall of Blossoms.  I put in a Wall of Omens, actually, since most of the card draw and land fetching early on is in green and blue, so just in case you're stuck with white....

So...after some playtesting (goldfishing):

Card draw.  The deck is kind of short on it.  If I get a creature I can bounce for card draw, that's almost always my target, even if I have other nice targets.  If I don't have a card draw target I'm usually quite sad.

With this in mind, Soul of the Harvest goes back in (in exchange for Reya Dawnbringer).  I probably want more card draw on top of this, but we'll see.

EDIT: oh yeah, Consecrated Sphinx.  That thing that draws cards.  Yeah, the deck needs it enough that it's worth subbing in in exchange for...Stormtide Leviathan maybe?  Way more complicated than the other EDH bombs I'm running, so it goes.  Only reason I had it in there is "I own one."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 05, 2014, 08:41:59 AM
First testing of the new EDH deck wasn't that great.  The deck does start a bit slow, and we played a more aggressive format (star) and the two people playing against the deck got insanely fast starts.  (And one of them also unintentionally cheated I realized afterwards; had Pariah and Sword of Light and Shadow on the same creature at the same time).


But enough about that.  I will be drafting M15.  Strategy going in is as follows: Everything I've read going in suggests that Convoke is very good.  Triplicate Spirits in particular being described as the best common and very first-pickable.  Thing is, convoke cards tend to look bad on first reading, as people underestimate the mechanic.  (Triplicate Spirits doesn't look that great when I read it, and it's easy to assume "it's a common, I should probably be picking a rare").

Actually, from what I've seen, rares and uncommons are often not good in this set.  A bunch of the rares are dual lands.  A bunch of the uncommons are lifegain trinkets and underwhelming limited equipment (just because artifact = uncommon is some core set flavour rule or something).


EDIT: ok, so draft picks from the pro tour are on display, and this series of picks has me a little bit surprised:

http://gatherer.wizards.com/magic/draftools/draftviewer.asp?draftid=8_1_2014_1&player=7&pack=2&pick=1&showpick=false

Haunted Plate Mail goes 5th pick in this pack.  Which surprises me.  The stuff that goes before it...there are three paragons, two of which get picked before it (high priority picks if you're in the colour).  Krenkos Enforcer, which goes second pick--seems to be a wind drake variant, and a drake variant seems to be a big deal for red.  And there's Raise the Alarm, which is an excellent enabler for Convoke.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 06, 2014, 09:11:21 AM
Draft complete.

So like...I think overall this didn't go ideally.  I opened a blue bomb, so started out in blue, and then that dried up quickly but white looked super available, so moved into white and a little green.

Pack 2 I open the 7 mana garruk, decide that passing it is terrible because someone would wreck me, so I took it.  Then got passed...an artifact mythic (a slow sweeper) and...two more blue rares; took this as a pretty good sign I should be in blue.

Turns out the two people on my right were drafting blue.  (The one on my immediate right was drafting blue white because he had seen the same white signals I had pack one).

My deck is...so-so.  Like...the structure is ok--lots of 2 drops (4 3/1s for 2, which I'm sure will kill some mana screwed opponents).  3 and 4 drops are mostly removal, with one decent enchant creature.  5 mana has some overruns, and a draw 3 cards spell.  I only have four creatures that cost 4+ and they all have evasion (three are blatantly bombs).  Like...the structure of the deck seems solid enough.  But it's missing some of the killer cards.  None of the white/blue kird ape variant, for instance.  No triplicate spirits.  No Military intelligence.  No frost lynx, no divination, no welkin tern.  And the sideboard is super thin; I'd like to have a Negate, for instance.

That said, all in all I still think I have a pile of pretty good cards with a sensible mana curve and some bombs, and about as many combat tricks as I'm willing to run (because I hate having like an opening hand of four combat tricks and auras, because if I put four of them in my deck it's gonna happen), so overall I think I came out decent; should be able to at least beat a lot of the newbies, and shouldn't lose to dumb stuff like mana screw too often.  But hey, the guy next to me got three lightning strikes, two of the on-colour kird ape variant, an on-colour planeswalker, and just generally no real bad cards.  So I'm definitely going to be outclassed by a few decks.


Meanwhile, in EDH land...I remembered the "need more card draw, and preferably stuff that doesn't lock down Roon into only drawing cards" issue, and...then I realized Magus of the Future (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=magus+of+the+future) is a human with fairly simple text.  That goes in and...after some thinking the thing that comes out is...

Well...one change I made I didn't mention here--I took out Beast Within for an Oblivion Ring variant (Banishing Light), since I figured Beast Within is the kind of card new players tend not to like.  "Why would I want to give them a 3/3?"  But...Banishing Light is still 5 cards of text, which did take me a second reading when I first saw it before I was like "oh it's just Oblivion Ring", and I'm trying to spend my "complexity points" in areas like the Roon combos.  So...as much as cutting removal is always dubious from a deck power-level standpoint, I think I am cutting removal.  Everything in the bombs section has a really good reason to be there.  I'm not cutting ramp, if anything one of the reasons I'd like more card draw is to help with the "some of these cards cost 10, and when you can't cheat on them that means getting 10 lands".  I'm not cutting humans.  Most of the non-human bounce cards that haven't been cut are really noteworthy (Clone and Sower of Temptation are the only ones I hesitated on, and they're both quite sexy and quite simple).  So...really that left Banishing Light as a card I had mild reservations on.  At any rate, cutting removal for card draw doesn't even necessarily mean the player will get less removal because they might draw it, so....  (Granted, I could just cut Gallows instead, being the considerably worse card, but it's still quite cool).


EDIT: ok, now when I goldfish the deck, it combos out and draws half the deck several games in a row.  I may have overdone it...but then again, maybe not; the deck isn't supposed to be piloted by me, it's meant to be piloted by newbies, and it will go up against decks with removal.

EDIT 2: did several more tests and it went completely out of control in maybe one of them, so perhaps that edit was premature.  Even in these tests I do feel like it's more reliably getting somewhere, even if I'm not drawing mass card draw I'll, say, successfully cast Storm Herd on turn 8 or Blatant Thievery twice or whatever.  (So if I'm not drawing big card draw at this point, then I'm drawing more of the small card draw or ramp spells).  Regardless, I don't think the amount of card draw is overkill.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 14, 2014, 05:19:11 PM
So...I've been thinking about what the best magic the gathering creature is at each converted mana cost.  Here's what I've got so far:



0 mana: Ornithopter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383334)

The list of 1 mana creatures is pretty short, and really there's only two real options here: Ornithopter and Memnite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=194078).  And...there are some decks that run both right now in Modern, but they seem to run more copies of Ornithopter usually.  Flying is good.  Especially when you combine it with Cranial Plating (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205328) or Ensoul Artifact (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383232) or lots of counters off of an Arcbound Ravager (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370510).

1 mana: Delver of Secrets (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=226749)

There's definitely some competition for this slot.  Some fantastically good mana production like Noble Hierarch (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=179434).  Some just very powerful effects like Mother of Runes (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247525).  There's only one 1 mana creature banned in Modern right now, and it's Deathrite Shaman (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=290529) (because it is good at making mana, and also warps the meta by killing several strategies).  Delver is still just so standout in terms of stats and a multi-format all-star, that people seem to agree with it being the best.

2 mana: Stoneforge Mystic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=198383)

To give you an idea of what this can search up, it can search up Batterskull (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233055) and then put a 4/4 life gaining, vigilance creature into play for 2 mana at instant speed.  Or it can search up equipment, some of which is just very powerful like Sword of Fire and Ice (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370471), some of which is part of an infinite combo like Sword of the Meek (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=126215).  And when you use its ability to put this equipment into play, it comes in at instant speed and they can't counter it.

There is a lot of competition for the 2 mana slot, though.  Banned in Legaccy you have Goblin Recruiter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=15417) and Hermit Druid (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382973).  The problem I have with these is that they weren't good when the were new, and don't even go into most decks.  But after that, there's still a collection of multi-format allstars.  Stoneforge Mystic.  Tarmogoyf.  Dark Confidant.  Snapcaster Mage.  Arcbound Ravager.  Scavenging Ooze.  Of these...Arcbound Ravager (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370510) and Stoneforge Mystic both got banned in Standard.  Stoneforge Mystic is also banned in Modern right now, though, and played in pretty much every Legacy deck running white.  There's also a decent argument for Tarmogoyf (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370404), which has been ubiquitous and oppressive in just about every format, but you know, it didn't even dominate its own Standard format for all that long, because Faeries came along.

3 mana: Metalworker (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=15246)

Let's take a moment to talk about Metalworker.  Actually, pause for a moment and look at Somberwald Sage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=275711) instead.  Somberwald Sage is considered a good card, and gets played in constructed.  Creature only mana is probably a bigger restriction than colourless.  So...really, to be getting good value out of Metalworker, you really only need to tap for 4 mana.  Having enough artifacts to get 2 artifacts in your hand (making 4 mana) usually is not really that hard.  Of course, the dedicated artifact decks do terrifying things with this card, tapping for 12 and such.

As for other options, 3 mana isn't really where the busted cards live.  There's an argument for Vendilion Clique (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370390), as that goes into lots and lots of decks--pretty good clock with evasion, and gets a big threat out of your opponent's hand.  True Name Nemesis (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376562) also exists, but I'm not sure I want to count it, given that they knew it was good, and that's why they made sure it was never legal in standard or modern.

4 mana: Bloodbraid Elf (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271167)

I don't think there's any real debate about this one.  It was never banned in Standard, but there were pro events where all 8 decks in the top 8 were running four of these (full 32 Bloodbraid Elves!)  It is banned in Modern.

You get a free spell, AND a body that honestly isn't even all that unreasonable for a 4 mana creature.  (4/3 haste is straight up good at 4 mana, so 3/2 haste with nothing would be...probably not in tournament decks, but not awful).

5 mana: Thragtusk (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249685)

So this is an interesting one, as we're now in the range where I don't think a 5 mana creature has ever been banned in any format.

But I think I'm going to go with Thragtusk barring further arguments.  Thragtusk showed up in an era of very strong 5 mana creatures in green.  Kessig Cagebreakers (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249868) which won if you untapped with them.  Sigara (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240033) which was near impossible to kill.  Wolfir Silverheart (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240090) which was essentially 12/12 worth of power for 5 mana.  And it made them all look bad, and became the definitive 5 drop in green.  There's not really much you can do against it.  Kill it?  Ok, they still got a 3/3 and 5 life out of the deal.  Exile it?  Bounce it?  Same thing; you always get full value.  But on the flip side, if you're the one controlling it, you can do ridiculously abusive things with it.  Restoration Angel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240096) yes I would like a surprise free 5 life and bonus 3/3.  Deadeye Navigator (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240022) actually I'd like to do that 3 times per turn.

Derranged Hermit (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382915) is also a very strong candidate.  It's a card they've thought about reprinting a few times, only to realize that it was actually way too broken.  It's a card that...the very first time I drafted a Cube, I died to this card.  So...next time I drafted a Cube, I first picked this (probably over some P9 card) and then proceeded to win every match.  Afterward we discussed it, and noted that Grave Titan was also in the Draft, but my friend pointed out that wouldn't be as deadly--he could, say, control magic on the Grave Titan, and be just fine.  That did nothing against Hermit.  What does work though?  Is more hermits, since they pump each other.

Baneslayer Angel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205077) was also the terror of Standard for a very long time, even if it never really made the jump to eternal formats.  It can and does just plain die if you kill it.  But if you don't, 10 point lifeswings every turn.

There is, however, also an argument for Kiki-Jiki (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370534).  Now, Kiki-Jiki when it was legal in Standard was quirky, not played in very many decks at all.  (People would play it in Tooth and Nail decks to fetch out alongside Sundering Titan).  But it has been a very persistent combo piece.  A frequent subject of scruitiny in EDH.  The only 5 mana creature that gets played in Modern right now, because as soon as it was out of Standard, infinite combos got printed for it--the popular one right now being Restoration Angel (which itself is a very strong card, so you don't mind running it).  That said, derranged hermit is too old to be legal in Modern, so it's hard to say "See?  Kiki-Jiki is better."

6 mana: Primeval Titan (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=241832)

There are a lot of ridiculous 6 drops, but fortunately they were all in standard at the same time, so it's really quite simple to pick out the best.  Primeval Titan was consistently considered the best of the Titan (all 7 of them; I'm counting Consecrated Sphinx and Wurmcoil Engine as Titans here).  It straight up got itself banned in EDH.  The combos and lands it goes for change--first it was Valakut, then it was Wolf Run, in more eternal formats it might be Cabal Coffers and Urbog, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

7 mana: Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214352)

You know, there's some competition here.  Angel of Serenity (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=253627) represents a lot of removal.  Or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214352), which both kills your opponents stuff AND makes it so that they need to deal with it before they play any new stuff.  Palinchron (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383040) does kind-of scream infinite mana abuse.  (Not a bad control creature either; play it, and still have counter mana up, and have the mana available to bounce it if they try to kill it).

Snowfire has made a decent argument for Elesh Norn, though.  It's usually the top reanimation choice at this cost, it's a fine hardcast, and you don't really need to specialize your deck at all for it, unlike, say, Palinchron.

8 mana: Grislebrand (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=239995)

So like...let's make a necropotence that can also heal the life back and kill the opponent.  This very quickly became arguably the best reanimation target, banned in commander, etc etc.

There are some very good 8 mana cards (mostly a lot of big giant things with haste--if you can cheat multiple creatures into play, those become good because they just deal 20 damage).  But this seems like the overall strongest despite not being part of the haste party.

9 mana: Iona, Shield of Emeria (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=190407)

Oh, I'm sorry, did you want to play spells?


And...once we get to 10 mana, the winner becomes really unclear.  Jin-Gitaxias goes into reanimator decks.  And Progenitus goes into Natural Order decks.  They don't really compete head to head for the same deck space.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on September 14, 2014, 07:45:35 PM
Deranged Hermit is amazing because it summons squirrels to destroy the world~
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 14, 2014, 08:28:16 PM
FWIW: Your even casting costs sounds good.  Ornithopter, Stoneforge Mystic, Bloodbraid Elf, Primeval Titan, Gristles, & Iona all seem the best (although Primeval's got a lot of competition, and Iona's 9 is odd).  Delver....  hmm, fine, it does set up a flying clock way faster than usual, but it also warps deck construction.  But I can't think of something clearly better - Wild Nacatl might be comparable, but not clear that it's "better," and you already mentioned Hierarch.  Disciple of the Vault, perhaps?  Same issue as Delver in restricting deck construction, but even more so.   3cc - well legacy nod first to Hypnotic Specter for being uber-broken and above the curve for the old creature power scale, even if it isn't as crazy now.  Psychatog has also seen its time pass.  Hmm, really feels like there should be better stuff than Metalworker - which is broken but nicely waits until next turn to be broken.  5cc - Hermit is crazy, yes, but it's also 10 mana!  I'd definitely lean more toward Baneslayer here.  There's some other solid combo pieces to mention like Reveliark at this level, too.  7cc, Palinchron is just your average "combo & win" in the right deck piece, doesn't seem much more special to me than lots of competition on that (Angel of Glory's Rise!).  The fact it isn't amazing if you aren't doing the combo really cuts against it, Elesh Norn should easily beat it (if you 'combo' it via Reanimation, you should win, and she's a solid hardcast), and I'm not even sure Elesh Norn should take this anyway.  There's Myr Enforcer, but that's not really 7cc and isn't really even played in modern Affinity.  Hmm..  there's not that many 7cc creatures out there...  I think Elesh Norn wins this after all to me, lots of critters that are potentially "you win next turn" but Elesh immediately wins the game vs. creature decks, and is still solid vs. control.

At the 10cc slot, there's also that Eldrazi for competition, but the 10cc slot & up are kinda silly, you're already either cheating them into play or having some kind of absurd mana engine for them to not be blank cards.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 14, 2014, 09:53:30 PM
Yeah, there's definitely some slots that are straightforward, and some slots that are iffy.

1cc there are manadorks, and there are creatures that can be big but are conditional.  Nimble Mongoose (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=29784) I guess is another one, that continues to be relevant in Legacy.  The biggest they get is 3/3.  a 3/2 flyer is...pretty much the best stats, barring perhaps 3/3 shroud.  I dunno, I don't have really strong opinions on 1cc.

My friend had a decent argument for Tarmogoyf at 2cmc just because it's incredibly ubiquitous.  if you're running green...and you're not a specialized deck in some way like poison or Birthing Pod, then you put goyf in the deck.  My counterargument was that Mystic is similarly ubiquitous in Legacy, since you only really need to dedicate about 2 slots to equipment to slot it into every white deck.  Pretty much every white deck has Mystic.

3cc...like I said, I'm pretty sure Vendilion Clique is probably the best competition to Metalworker.  It shows up in lots of decks in both Modern and Legacy, sometimes as the only creature.  The only other competition...if you want to get into combos you can start talking about Deceiver Exarch (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376301) and Pestermite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370440).  But they go into one deck because of a combo with one card.  And I don't think any of these have ever really been on the table for banning in a format.

5cc...The problem with Baneslayer Angel is that you can just kill it.  Got a Doom Blade?  Ok, cool, it's dead, and now you spent 5cmc, and your opponent spent 2cmc.  This, incidentally, was a weakness of the card in Standard as well, which is why decks that ran BSA would typically run about 33 or so creatures, many of them large, in the hopes that you would run out of removal by the time BSA dropped.  It's a creature that doesn't obviously need a lot of support, but realistically does need quite a bit of support.  Unless it's up against a red deck, because red hates lifegain and struggles to kill 5 toughness creatures.

Let's see...last pro tour of standard where BSA was legal...was right after Mirrodin Beseiged

http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptpar11/top8/decklists

There's actually 0 maindeck BSAs.  A few in sideboards (6 across all 8 decks).  Note that there are maindeck Sun Titans and Wurmcoil Engines in the same top 8, so it's not like the format didn't support expensive creatures.

Ok, but that was the height of Jace/Stoneforge Mystic dominance, what about post banning?

http://archive.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gppit11/welcome#0

Zero baneslayers, not even in the sideboard.  And like...it is legal; there are zendikar cards there, therefore it's still legal.  And people are running 4 mana white cards like Hero of Bladehold and Emeria Angel, and 6 mana white cards like Sun Titan.

Alright...what about the previous year...worlds 2010:

http://archive.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/worlds10/decks/top8

Very blue/black control dominated.  There is one player in the top 8 with 3 maindeck baneslayers as his only creatures, though!

Earlier in 2010, pre-rotation:

http://archive.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptsd10/top8decks

Again, white wasn't super strong.  One deck is running 4-of BSA, though, and another has BSA as 2-of in the sideboard.  There is a third white/blue/black deck that could run it but has 5-drop Sphinx of Lost Truths instead.


I dunno...with BSA we're talking about a card that was....good, but not always played even in standard, even in decks that ran white and could afford it.  That might still be the best 5 drop, but I feel like there's probably going to be a better pick.


Reveillark...is a thought.  Mostly I skipped over it, because BSA was almost universally considered better than Reveillark when BSA came out (and most lark decks quietly exited from the metagame to make way for BSA builds).  Same reason I didn't really mention Demigod of Revenge, even though it's definitely good and saw some play, it did get overshadowed by BSA.

I do still think there is a reasonable argument for Kiki-Jiki, though.  Relevant and played in Modern, and it's kind-of in the "danger watch list" for EDH.

I dunno, still open to arguemnts here.


7cc...yeah, I could switch this to Elesh Norn.  She is a personal favourite of mine.  Although I will say, if my opponent says "I'm running Elesh Norn" I'd probably be like "cool".  If my opponent says "I'm running Palinchron", I'm probably thinking "this guy's a jerk."  That makes me think Palinchron might be better of the two.


10cc...The 10cc Eldrazi is Kozilek, who really isn't that good.  Ulamog was good at 11cc (and hardcasted).  Emrakul of course was good at 15cc.  But people didn't really run Kozilek.  They actually ran the 9cc Artisan of Kozilek instead (which revives a creature on cast).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 14, 2014, 10:44:17 PM
Ok, hold on, let me make sure I'm not missing something obvious for 5 cmc

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338406
Golgari Grave-Troll

It's good in dredge, nowhere else.  If we're kicking other cards for being too narrow, should probably kick this too.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382950
Genesis

...Ehh, it's like an enchantment that sits in your graveyard.  Whatever.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193751
Siege-Gang Commander

It's good.  It got reprinted a lot, and used in standard almost every time.  (It got played in the busted Jund decks of yore, so...yeah, the quality of the card is very high).  Notably, though, they reprinted this a lot, but also said that Derranged Hermit was way too fucking broken to reprint, so...yeah.

Morphling, Sliver Queen, Spiritmonger:

Pretty sure the quality has gone up since then.  I remember Spiritmonger being unable to keep up with Kamigawa legends in Extended back in 2005, so...yeah.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=215098
Kudotha Forgemaster

This dude gets played in Legacy.  Anywhere where it is legal, Blightsteel Colossus is also legal.  I...could see arguments for this.  I'm a bit wary, though, because it wasn't really a big deal in Standard.  It saw fringe play, but yeah.

Meloku and Kiki-jiki I've mentioned already

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376446
Phyrexian Delver

I find this one really hard to evaluate.  Would be potentially gross today, since 5 mana sorcery is roughly the cost of reanimation, and there's lots of ways to flicker to get even more out of it.  But there's also cheaper reanimation if you go into older sets...like the era this card came from.  So....

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370535
Mulldrifter

I...yeah ok, I can see this as a real candidate.... >_>

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=244667
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir

I could see arguments for this, too.  It did pretty much define standard.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=253700
Thundermaw Hellkite

Oh yeah, how could I forget about this guy?  "We're sorry for taking away Baneslayer Angel, here have something arguably more powerful."


Stuff that is really effing big, like this guy
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240090
And this guy
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=177922
And your friendly neighborhood 8/8 trample for 5
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370766

Prolly not

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240033
Sigara, Host of herons

Hmmm...I'd need to do some research, I forget how good she turned out to be.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249685
Thragtusk

Actually..........yeah, Thragtusk is a pretty serious option.  There were some very good 5 drops at the time (Wolfir Silverheart etc) and Thragtusk made everyone forget that they even existed. 

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=185751
Sphinx of Lost Truths

This one doesn't get talked about much, but it was used a ton.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240082
Zealous Conscripts

Good on their own, and completely abusive with certain cards like Deadeye Navigator.  I...feel like it won't be these but they're actually probably close to the top.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=48436
Arc Slogger

So like...if you untap with this in mono-red you do kind-of win, since you can generally deal 8 damage to their face and/or creatures.

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249868
Kessig Cagebreakers

Speaking of cards you win with if you untap with them (though this does fall into the category of "and then Thragtusk outshone them")

Big stupid Orzhov shit
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368954
Blood Baron of Visopka
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366246
Obzedat, Ghost Council

These probably should be given some consideration; they've stayed a constant force for a long time in standard; they're hard to kill and represent a ton of lifeswing.

Mmmm...ok, I think I might go with Thragtusk for now.  No real question the quality on that card eclipsed a bunch of other already good cards.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 14, 2014, 11:10:16 PM
Both Thragtusk & Grave-Troll are pretty legit 5cc critters, yeah, although Grave-Troll is weird in that half its value isn't in the creature itself.  I can get behind hyping Thragtusk over BSA, it showed up absolutely everywhere while it was legal and they had to print special anti-Thragtusk tech to deal with it in standard.  (I can't recall what that card was, though...  ugh.)  As you point out, any large creature isn't amazing in a heavy-control environment, while Thragtusk manages to be amazing vs. both aggro AND control.  The stupid Orzhov 5cc stuff from Return to Ravnica are good but somewhat restricted by casting cost, so they feel "solid for Standard, not gonna matter in other formats."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 15, 2014, 12:27:12 AM
Quote
although Grave-Troll is weird in that half its value isn't in the creature itself.

Troll was also not that relevant in Standard.  Kamigawa-Ravnica standard was like...gifts ungiven, and Selesnia, and Blue green value creatures.  And I guess Gruul beats.  None of those really bothered with Troll.

and they had to print special anti-Thragtusk tech to deal with it in standard.  (I can't recall what that card was, though...  ugh.)

Wait....how DO you print anti-Thragtusk tech.  I'm trying to figure out what this card would even be....

Skullcrack? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366238)
Olivia Volarden? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247235)
Zealous Conscripts (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=240082)+ sac outlets???
Boros Reckoner? (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366385)

Actually, maybe boros reckoner.  First strikes down the Thragtusk, and then first strikes down the 3/3.

Quote
The stupid Orzhov 5cc stuff from Return to Ravnica are good but somewhat restricted by casting cost, so they feel "solid for Standard, not gonna matter in other formats."

Yeah, also they were legal alongside Thragtusk for a while.  Thragtusk still got played more from what I'm looking at.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 15, 2014, 09:00:39 AM
So...in the 1cmc slot...I've overlooked Goblin Welder

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=13001

It's...completely bonkers.  Reanimation at the cost of a tap and an artifact.  But...it's also not getting a whole lot of play right now, which makes me hesitate to immediately pick it.  Is there just too much graveyard hate right now?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 24, 2014, 06:40:12 AM
Figured out what the card printed was that was supposed to counter Thragtusk.  Lifebane Zombie!

Also, while we're on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SET5gGC128M
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on September 24, 2014, 11:45:21 PM
Tossing in a few things that weren't mentioned on the listings...

Dryad Arbor (http://magiccards.info/fut/en/174.html) pops out of fetchlands and Green Sun's Zenith for 0 to do work in several decks.  Doesn't get as much play as it probably should, but on the other hand the 0 artifact creatures only go in one deck.

Goblin Guide (http://magiccards.info/zen/en/126.html) is the best 1 drop in a variety of aggressive decks that live or die by their 1 drops.

According to the Northwest Vintage Rotisserie Draft statistics (http://habitatring.com/rotisserie/), Thada Adel, Acquisitor (http://magiccards.info/wwk/en/40.html) is slightly over V-Clique as the best 3 drop >_>!   Runners up after that are Trinket Mage (http://magiccards.info/som/en/48.html) and Metalworker.  2 drops go in the order Dark Confidant, Painter's Servant (http://magiccards.info/shm/en/257.html), Snapcaster Mage, Vampire Hexmage (http://magiccards.info/zen/en/114.html), Stoneforge Mystic and then discard guys.  1 drops, interestingly, do have Goblin Welder in first place, with nothing else even remotely close to it.

Lodestone Golem (http://magiccards.info/wwk/en/127.html) provides some competition in the 4 slot.  Bloodbraid Elf dominated Standard and Modern, but it and Jund fall off a lot in Legacy and and is almost unheard of in Vintage, whereas Lodestone Golem is one of the key cards that make Mud/Stax/Shops a legitimate archetype in the highest power formats.

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 27, 2014, 06:50:39 PM
I did forget about Dryad Arbor!  I'm...not sure if I count it or not, as it isn't really 0 cost (it costs you a land drop, and doesn't tap for mana when you play it, so you do end up using mana on it).  Like...forest Llanowar Elf is nearly always a better play than Dryad Arbor.

Goblin Guide was good in Standard; I don't remember seeing a lot of it in older formats.  I feel like it's designed to punish decks that are slow in standard, but if it goes up against a similar speed deck, it's really not that great because it gives them cards.

Thada Adel, Aquisitor...so the issue I have with this card is that as far as I know, nobody played it in Standard, nobody plays it in Modern, nobody plays it in Legacy.  It's cool in Vintage because you can steal moxes that every deck runs.  It's like...Gorilla Shaman (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=184693) is really good in Vintage, but not a big deal anywhere else.

Your link seems to be some kind of draft format, with pick order.  It doesn't surprise me that Metalworker is not the most-chosen 3 drop.  (Still 4th, behind Trinket mage, clique, and Thada).

The real surprise to me is how low Tarmogoyf is in picks.  I guess the decks aren't guaranteed a lot of fetchlands, so that makes it worse?  Painter's Servant being as high as it is in a draft format is actually quite surprising to me; it has value in two or three combos, but if you don't draft the combo it's a dead card.  Same for hexmage.  Same for stoneforge mystic (looks like there's...three pieces of equipment in the draft?)  So yeah, Does not surprise me to see Confidant at the top, since it doesn't require any combo pieces.  Snapcaster mage also works in almost every deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on September 27, 2014, 10:55:15 PM
Yeah, it's a draft format (a very fun one, read more (http://lrcast.com/vintage-rotisserie-draft-recap/)) and the link is compiled statistics from several drafts.  Certainly not meant to be taken as a real best of all time list.  Just an interesting data point in how formats can drastically change card values.  Painter's Servant and Hexmage are high picks there because there are only so many realistic instant win combos, and people want to lay claim to them early.  Hexmage also pulls triple duty as a good cheap beater and "destroy target planeswalker," in addition to freeing Marit Lage from the Dark Depths.  Stoneforge Mystic goes high mainly because it's the best card in the draft format to signal that one intends to actually draft white (Enlightened Tutor goes even higher, but that belongs in a heavy artifact deck rather than a real white deck).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 10, 2014, 06:52:29 AM
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/470940-perspective-of-a-game-developer-on-lotv-units

Wrote this.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 11, 2014, 12:45:46 AM
Quote
The SNES game Super Metroid had various ways you could bypass the normal sequence of the game, and get items out of order. These seemed like they weren't intentional, and players felt quite clever for finding them. So.....Nintendo collects some feedback about Metroid, and finds that players like to find tricks to beat Metroid games out-of-sequence. And then they make Metroid Zero Mission where the developers deliberately placed some hidden tunnels to skip areas, and I believe they even had some kind of "you've found a hidden bypass tunnel" notification. Players hated this; the sense of discovery was gone. The sense of "I outsmarted the developer" was gone.

I think it was Metroid Fusion that did this, and yes, it was really lame.  (This may be influenced by my general feeling that Metroid Fusion's script was written by a marmot.)  I don't think it even really *got* you anything, just was a weird skip to prove you could skip there...  Metroid Fusion is crazy on rails in general, even when it has no right to be; it manages to make BREAKING THE WALLS and going to a sector you're not supposed to something done because you're told to.

Anyway, that all said, I kinda disagree with the point in general.  Not knowing counters to units is a huge part of the learning curve.  It took a decent while for me to learn why my Stalkers were getting crushed by Marauders, or why my Marauders were crushed by Marines, or why my Marines were crushed by Sentries.  It's not exactly obvious why, you just have to learn the damage boosts, and I can attest to more casual SC2 fans who I whipped into playing who needed to be reminded each time.  If the counter to the Colossus was really obvious, well, that's okay.  (Colossi still have issues of course - for old WoL balance, I know Laggy/Rat had a good idea to nerf Extended Thermal Lance - maybe only range 7 or 8 - and include a researchable upgrade to Immortals to make 'em range 8 or 9, so Immortals are the siege unit, Colossi are the area cleanup crew.  Would make lategame classic PvP less about piles of Colossi fighting it out, too.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on November 11, 2014, 01:22:39 AM
I think to make sequence-breaking appealing you need to make it difficult but possible. Most of Super Metroid's came out of either difficult shinespark tricks or walljumping, which was overly difficult for what it was but did work out pretty well for this. (Super Metroid's bad sequence-breaks come from exploiting glitches.) It's not so much sequence-breaking which is fun in its own right, it's the feeling of the player "beating" the system by doing something difficult and technical. For some reason, although the later games use shinespark tricks for secrets, they don't use them for sequence-breaking. Which I'm somewhat more okay with in Fusion since it's telling a story and I'm not sure how many great opportunities there would be for such things, it does feel like a missed opportunity for Zero Mission whose plot-light style would have lent itself to that more. That said I don't personally care about sequence-breaking that much; the main reason I like Super Metroid's main one is it lets you skip Crocomire, which is my least favourite boss in the game. <.<

Quote
(This may be influenced by my general feeling that Metroid Fusion's script was written by a marmot.)

Guess this means marmots write better than whoever wrote Trails in the Sky.

(I may be a bit sick of you repeatedly slagging that game's plot with little provocation and even less justification.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 11, 2014, 02:26:34 AM
Um...  wat.

A) I was merely agreeing with a point metroid composite brought up herself, and adding a slight correction as to which game in.  I think I may have mentioned this in chat ~3 months ago, and at the time I finished Fusion on WGAYP?  This isn't Nama & the FF6 WoR....  I think...  have I been endlessly ragging on Fusion?  I don't remember so, at least!
B) The ragging on Fusion's scriptwriter was a disclaimer, aka "warning: biased opinion", that my endorsing that the "Fusion easter egg was lame" meme was *suspect*, so it's possible others have different opinions (although I suspect metroid is right that it wasn't amazingly well-received).  And hey, I saw Ciato's (and to a lesser extent yours) complaints about Trails in WGAYP, which is fine.  She didn't like it, that's cool, I'm not offended or sick of it or anything, although I'll disagree.
C) Okay, ragging on the wall breaking was off-topic, fine, you got me there.  (But if not clear, it's because I thought that was one of the best parts of Metroid Fusion, and wanted it to be *even better*.  This is where I mention again that I did in fact like Metroid Fusion, and if I was the type who enjoyed doing things like the 1% challenge you did, it'd be even better!)
D) But okay, sure, if you bring it up, let's talk about it and the justification.  Here's the script:
http://metroid.wikia.com/wiki/Sector_4_conversation
...I'm sorry, this is lame-o.  For some reason going to a navigational computer you aren't supposed to access means you can be told MWAHAHA THERE IS A NEBULOUS EVIL PLAN OH WAIT NEVER MIND.  And then you are told "Samus, return to the correct route immediately."  That...  that is not much of a reward, and is just kind of nonsensical.  (The fact that the actual plan is...  not much...  doesn't help matters here either, but even if it *was* a great plan referenced, this scene would still be lame.)  It isn't really a sequence break, either.  Maybe it'd be too much coding, but if they want to directly support a sequence break, support a sequence break and actually let the player skip some section, or get a cool new weapon they shouldn't have yet.  If they wanted to just have a fun easter egg with some plot overtones, don't be a useless tease; have some genuine hidden bit of plot to discover.  Alternatively, just have a humorous, out-of-character conversation.  I guess that's what they did go for, but the humor was a miss for me at least.
E) You didn't take into account the potential return of a year of Brood Lord / Infestor in your post at all, which could be avoided with MC's suggestion of keeping the flavorful neural parasite while canning Fungal Growth.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on November 11, 2014, 03:19:40 AM
A) I'm pretty sure MC knew which game she was referencing, she's a bigger Metroid fan than either of us (uh, obviously). It was about Zero Mission. You wanted to make it about Fusion, which well, cool, okay, still relevant since it's a different Super Metroid sequel and all. The random shot at the game's plot/script again was needless, since we weren't even talking about Fusion, let alone its writing. And yeah, you've done that at least twice in chat, and both times I called you about it you vanished without explaining anything. I figured I'd say something where I knew you'd have to respond. (Sorry mc.)

B-D) I wasn't even aware of this particular scene, actually. If you don't like it, that's fine. I have no real opinion. The scene reads as a joke to me; you weren't supposed to get there, so the characters say things which are pretty much non-canon ("Let's fill her in on our plan!" from the secretive Federation official who it is already established does not want Samus to know their plan, followed by "No more joking"... if you're taking this seriously, I suspect you're the only one). Anyway you already know the Federation has an "evil plan" at this point, so the scene isn't actually shedding light on anything new, so yeah, pure joke. It's fine to find this joke not very funny, although weird to be so critical of it anyway.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 11, 2014, 03:53:36 AM
Well, if it was in fact in Zero Mission, then silly me.  I know there are secret passages in Zero Mission, but I don't recall getting notifications, so I presumed that notification = the weird "Samus you used the Shrinespark" thing.  (But...  it has been 10+ years since I played Zero Mission?  So.)  Getting back to the original point, I think I'd agree with MC that it sounds lame if the notifications were in Zero Mission too?  And yes, I am most familiar with Fusion's Easter Egg, which lodged in the same place of my head as "Zodiac Spear in FF12" and "Radiant Dawn endings that require NG+ and specific Path of Radiance data import" as far as obscura memorable for questionable design, hence thinking about that.  A person (may) have come to the wrong conclusion due to knowing just enough Metroid obscura to jump to the wrong conclusion.  Oh well.

For the Fusion thing, for whatever relevance it has, I'm critical of the joke not being funny for the same reason that MC brought up (hence why I thought it was relevant): that it doesn't really fit the "I am breaking the game" feel it should have.

As for chat, I think your memory of slights upon Fusion there is better than mine!  Twice since...  2012 I think?  Anyway, it's been too long so I have no idea how much "provocation" there was, but I apparently thought it was relevant at the time, and I don't remember why/if I either missed or let drop any comments from you.  As for no justification, well, I can obviously ramble about the script again if you *want* to chat about it, and I can shut up if you don't.  Up to you!  (I don't claim any kind of objective truth, but I'd argue I know my own thoughts pretty darn well, so I can say with a high degree of justification that Fusion's script was a letdown for me at least.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2014, 09:09:10 AM
I was talking about Zero Mission, yes.

What Fusion did was quite a bit different: Fusion stamped out all sequence breaking and enforced linear gameplay.  Not the first game to do this (Fusion reminded me a lot of Metroid II).  And there's nothing necessarily wrong with a linear game, although clearly it didn't scratch that itch at all for players who wanted it, whereas MZM does scratch that itch.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 12, 2014, 02:14:28 AM
Going back to the SC2 changes...  not sure if unkillable Nydus Worms are a great idea.  In terms of drama / gameplay, hearing the screech and having to quickly search the minimap to see if you can find and kill the Nydus Worm in time is very exciting.  If your scratch base defense force can't stop them, then that moment of tension is lost, you just have to do a boring evacuation + send reinforcements back.  Seems very powerful, especially if you can spawn multiple worms at once in different places...  or even just Worm a lurker in with the lings for extra trolling when the force comes to deal with the attack.

Anyway, I'm cautiously optimistic but slightly worried.  "Click the buttons fast you have no reason not to push" for things like Immortals seems just not fun at a casual level for "opportunities for micro", that was a problem with old Corrupters as well.  And, while deathball is potentially boring & lame, having all Workers constantly dead isn't great either, hence the nerfs to Blue Flame Hellions in WoL, and then to Hellbats in HotS.  Ideally you want "my army needs to be spread out, but a moment of inattention means I am forced back from a crucial position, not all my workers are instantly dead."  Maybe just give LotV workers more HP?!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 19, 2015, 09:30:42 PM
Magic the gathering:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/banned-and-restricted-announcement-2015-01-19

Treasure Cruise (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386705) banned in Modern and Legacy and restricted in Vintage.

Let's be clear here, if you got enough cards in your graveyard, Treasure Cruise was Ancestral Recall.  Just, you know, you'd better not be planning on using your graveyard for anything else.  And you'd better hope they don't have a Leyline of the Void (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205013).

Still though, an ancestral recall with the caveat that you do need to dedicate yourself to it is...apparently still that goddamn good.  (Except in Standard where there aren't as many tools to fill up your graveyard).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 10, 2015, 10:09:42 AM
So let's talk about the big O notation of BogBogSort:

http://www.dangermouse.net/esoteric/bogobogosort.html

Actually, let's build up to this first.

O() notation is basically a way to say that one function looks like another function as x gets large.  This is determined in the form of...

if

f(x) = O(g(x))

That means there exists a constant C such that

f(x) <= C*g(x)

So for instance, all quadratic equations are O(x^2).  Doesn't matter what any of the constants are.  And in general O() notation works great for figuring out that polynomials grow at a similar rate.  It works poorly for faster growing functions, though.

Consider these two functions:

f(x) = 2^x

g(x) = 4^x

Obviously they're more or less the same function, or at least you can rephrase problems to look like the other one.  Like...let's say instead of x representing individual people, it represents married couples--bam, just switched the algorithm from 2^x to 4^x, even though we're still talking about the same code solving the same problem.  Despite that, they are not O equivalent

4^x != O(2^x)

This is kind-of a failing of the O system, and one that honestly wouldn't be too hard to solve.  (Instead of using one constant in the definition, you'd use two, ex:

f(x) <= C*g(D*x)

But it doesn't.  And this is where it stops being a useful tool.  BUT we're still going to do calculations about it because math is fun.

It gets even worse where we're going.

(n+1)! != O(n!)

Yep, literally the same function shifted over by 1, is not even recognized as being in a similar category of functions by the function categorization tool O(f).  But like I said, we're going to use it anyway.  I'm just pointing out the n+1 stuff, because it's annoying and it's gonna come up.

So...let's start with a practice case.  O(n!) is kinda similar to n^n (in that it's somewhere between n^(n/2) and (n/2)^n).  Of course, they're not O() equivalent, because of all that stuff I just mentioned above.  So...what IS O() equivalent?

Well...I don't really have particularly good tools at my disposal to handle products, but I do have good tools at my disposal to handle sums, so let's just take the log of everything.

ln(n!) = ln(1) + ln(2) + ln(3) + ... + ln(n)

Alright...well...I don't really have a great way to sum all that stuff, but I can integrate it.

integral( ln(x) ) = x ln(x) - x

Alright, so what is the evaluation range of this integral?  Well it's from 1, to n+1 instead of 0 to n.  (Really, you don't want to integrate the area between 0 and 1).  So let's plug that in.

(n+1)ln(n+1) - (n+1) - (0 - 1)

= (n+1)(ln(n+1)-1) + 1

And then raising e to the power of all of this...

((n+1)/e)^(n+1) * e

Alright cool, glad that worked out.  Only one problem--this still isn't O() equivalent to n!.  You see...when we approximated sum( ln(x) ) as integral( ln(x) ), that's not accurate.  We're adding too much.  So...as a second order approximation, for each tile we want to subtract like...a triangle.

So...equation for a triangle area here would be

1/2 * (ln(n+1) - ln(n))

And I could approximate this with the derivative of ln(x), and then integrate it, but this is one case where summing over n is quite easy, because this happens:

(ln(n+1) - ln(n)) + (ln(n) + ln(n-1)) + .....

= ln(n+1) - ln(1) = ln(n+1)

Bam, and now we can plug that into the previous equation

(n+1)(ln(n+1)-1) + 1 - 1/2 ln(n+1)

= n ln(n+1) + ln(n+1) - n - 1 + 1 - 1/2 ln(n+1)

= n ln(n+1) + 1/2 ln(n+1) - n

= n ( ln(n+1) - 1) + 1/2 ln(n+1)

So...translating this back to the real world, we have...

((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1)


Alright, this is more accurate...but is it accurate enough for big O notation?  I mean, we just approximated the curve with diagonal slope lines, but of course it's curves.  What if we account for this with second order newtonian approximations?

Well...the integral of an upside down parabola from -1/2 to +1/2 is...the integral of (1/4 - x^2).  This is 1/4x - 1/3 x^3.

= 1/4 - (1/3 * 1/8 - 1/3 * (-1/8) ) = 1/4 - 1/12 = 1/6

Alright, so all we need is the second derrivative of the function and then we can sum over that.  What is the second derivative of ln(x)?  -1/x^2.

Sweet, let's integrate that.  And we get....

1/6 * 1/x

And when we change that into exponent form we get...

e^(1/6*1/x)

Alright...so what does O() think of this value?  For once, O() does its god damned job and weeds something out.  e^(1/x) trends towards a constant value, and constant multiplied values are weeded out by O().

So...we can say conclusively...

((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1) = O(n!)

AND

n! = O(((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1))

And...actually the two functions are very close to each other.  Like...

1.04  vs  1
2.11 vs 2
6.37 vs 6
25.6 vs 24
128 vs 120
771 vs 720

It drifts a little bit off-course because I haven't accounted for any constants (empirical testing suggests multiply by 0.92 makes it very accurate for high values of x).


Anyway, so we're about ready to tackle bogobogosort.  It's 1am and I'm probably not going to finish writing this tonight.  However let's get started.

http://www.dangermouse.net/esoteric/bogobogosort.html

So there's two functions here, the sort n S(n) and the check n is sorted C(n)

S(n) = n! * C(n)

C(n) = n * S(n-1)

S(n) = n * n! * S(n-1)

(with some smaller terms that O() will actually smash for us.  O() is good at handling two functions being added together).

S(n) = n! * product(x!)

S(n) = n! * (1^(n) * 2^(n-1) * 3^(n-2) * ... * n^(1))

so taking the log of what we plan to sum, it looks something like

log(x) + (M-x)*ln(x)

We've already handled integrating ln(x), just to the right hand part.

(M-x)*ln(x)

M ln x - x ln x

M ( x ln x - x  ) - ( 1/2 x^2 ln x - 1/4 x^2 )

M^2 ln M - M^2 - 1/2 M^2 ln M + 1/4 M^2 - ( - M + 1/4 )

1/2 M^2 ln M - 3/4 M^2 + M - 1/4

In these equations M is the peak of the integral (1+n).  Let's add the preliminary version of n!, since we're integrating over x.

So translating this to actually multiplicative stuff...

n! * (sqrt(n+1))^((n+1)^2) / e^(3/4*M^2) * e^M * e^1/4

Obviously this is just zeroth' orcer,approximation, and we'll probably need two derivatives.  Still, though...

(And that's where I'll stop for tonight).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on February 12, 2015, 05:44:29 PM
Neat stuff!

Obligatory nitpick: The runtime of bogosort is undefined, because it isn't guaranteed to terminate, and Big O by default refers to the worst case.  (Assuming perfectly random permutation generation, whatever that means, at least.)  Same is true of bogobogosort.  Of course, that just means we're looking for the *average* runtime, which is also fine (and what the linked webpage was using).

Also, bogobogosort always seemed like cheating to me.  Bogosort is a real-if-ludicrous way to sort a list; intentionally screwing up the way to *check* the list with messing with copies seemed a tad random.  It's better than "bubble sort, but every time you swap numbers calculate the next Mersenne prime" at least, since you get the self-referencing C(n) = n * S(n-1) at least.  Fun analysis regardless.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 15, 2015, 07:50:09 AM
I decided the n! stuff was cool enough to make pretty, so I put it in a Tumblr blog (http://kaitlyn-burnell.tumblr.com/post/111058583933/messing-with-big-o-notation-and-n).

May or may not bother with finishing bogobogosort stuff.

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 16, 2015, 04:39:31 AM
For some random hearthstone stuff...here's Amaz on Priest with legendaries losing at rank 25 to a basic mage deck:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kvn_30dtzWs&feature=youtu.be

(The player was good, let's be clear; probably someone competent who was playing on Asia because NA was down.  Still hilarious).



In other Hearthstone stuff...this is more of a game design thing, but Clockwork Gnome is a really well-designed card.  Like...it's higher power than Leper Gnome in most decks as it provides more board control, but it's also less frustrating to play against.  It manages to be a high power card with a lot of variety without being a frustrating card you shake your fist at.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 18, 2015, 08:34:35 AM
http://www.reddit.com/r/MTGLegacy/comments/2z6v9y/4_ugins_mud_decklist_from_south_florida_magic/

So...I have an urge to buy the cards and put this deck together.  It would cost me about $1000, but it seems really fun.

Modifications:

Haven of the Spirit Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394593) is coming out, and it's quite good because it can recur Ugin (and also because at some point you have a good number of Cloudposts and no longer need other sources of mana, so might as well recycle lands).

The question is what to cut for it.  12 post seems like a lock.  8 sol lands seem pretty important to get fast disruption going.  So like...maybe Cavern of Souls, but those are important too.  Thinking maybe go down to 3 cavern of souls, 1 Haven.  You want Cavern early, you want Haven eventually once there's an Ugin in the graveyard and you can spare the mana.  Alternatively, I do have some temptation to cut one City of Traitors, not because it would make the deck better, but just because it is the most expensive card in the deck (sitting at $60 per card or so).  Or a third option would be to run 25 land.  The question then would be what spell to cut.

Some stuff that's not getting cut:

4 metalworker
4 Grim Monolith

1 Trading Post (since everything is an artifact creature you basically trade anything in play for anything in your graveyard)
1 Platinum Emperion (just shuts down some decks)
1 Lightning Greaves (there for enabling combos)
1 Blightsteel Colossus (wins games sometimes, ways to cheat it in)
1 Staff of Domination (wins games sometimes)
1 Staff of Nin (the constant card draw is really nice, and there's lots of 1 health things I hate in legacy, like Young Pyromancer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370600), Dark Confidant (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370413), Delver of Secrets (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=226755) (pre-flip))

The disruption package seems really important too
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Trinisphere
4 Lodestone Golem

(In fact I'm a little surprised he only has 3 Trinispheres; there's a fourth in the sideboard, though).

And then there's the threat package

4 Wurmcoil Engine
3 Kudoltha Forgemaster
4 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Running 4 Ugin is something I want to do, and one of the draws of the deck (and the deck creator said he'd run more than 4 if he could).  Wurmcoil is something you want to see early against aggro/burn.  Forgemaster...is a tutor.  It's not something that's necessary on turn 2, but you do eventually want one.  Running 3 is already a bit lower than normal.  Wurmcoil...you don't strictly need 4.  When there's a lot of fast/aggressive decks, 6 lifegain is nice, though.  Probably not something to cut for a slow card, as this can drop (uncounterable) on turn 2, and really jam up some decks.

Hmm...for comparison purposes, let's look at an older variant:

http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?23388-Deck-MUD-(Metalworker)

Search 12 post MUD

Differences in the maindeck:

+4 Ugin
-1 Spine of Ish sah
-1 Lightning Greaves (still run one in the deck)
-1 Trinisphere
-1 Sundering Titan
-2 Spellskite
+1 Wurmcoil Engine
-1 Kudoltha Forgemaster
+1 Trading Post
+1 Platinum Emperion

Other cards I've seen show up include

Myr Battlesphere
Steel Hellkite

Spine of Ish Shah isn't so important.  It's kind of weak on its own, and mostly a tutor target as removal, but 4x Ugin does a lot of removal.

Sundering Titan was removed along with the Wastelands with good reason--the idea is if you get to play your cards, they will be better than your opponent's cards usually, so using wastelands, spending a tutor pulling out a Sundering Titan, just isn't necessary.  This was the innovation that the new deck did, was to replace wastelands with Cavern of Souls.

Spellkite...is good, but not flashy.

Myr Battlesphere is a card I tend to fangirl over.  Could probably swap one of these in for a Wurmcoil Engine, but they serve similar roles.  Like...making multiple saccable objects for Trading post and Kudoltha Forgemaster.

Steel Hellkite is tempting if I'm putting in Dragon Haven, But really it seems like it fills a similar niche to Ugin (sweeps stuff of a certain converted mana cost).  Except it also depends on summoning sickness, and not hitting flying blockers, and Ugin does not, so basically every time I will want Ugin.

All in all, I am tempted to go -1 Wurmcoil, +1 Myr Battlesphere, just because I like the card.  But I'll admit there wouldn't be too much value to this.  It's not really a tutor target.  And turn 2 wurmcoil engines (even uncounterable ones) are a thing, but that's a lot harder to do with battlesphere.

Anyway, no idea if I will buy it (I've historically shied away from spending more than about $50 on a magic deck) but I am weirdly tempted this time.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 19, 2015, 07:10:25 AM
Another variant:

Quote
im at work but i think its like this:

4 Metalworker
4 Kuldotha Forgemaster
1 Steel Hellkite
4 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Blightsteel Colossus
1 Platinum Emperion
4 Lodestone Golem

3 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

3 grim monolith
4 Trinisphere
3 Lightning Greaves
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Staff of Domination

3 Mishra's Factory
4 Cloudpost
4 Glimmerpost
3 Vesuva
4 Ancient Tomb
3 City of Traitors
3 Darksteel Citadel

SB:

3 Ratchet Bomb
2 tsabos web
2 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Duplicant
4 faerie macabre
3 tormods crypt

Note: it's a 61 card deck, so he's not reporting it properly, but it's pretty similar.

Interesting notes:

3 Vesuva.  I'm seeing quite a few decks go down on Vesuva's if they go lower on anything. I think that's probably the land to cut for Dragon Haven.

Darksteel Citadel and Mishra's Factory.  Artifact lands.  All the artifact synergies.

3 City of Traitors; haven't seen this before, it's interesting.


He describes in another post comparing his decklist to the one that inspired me that he is shocked about the only 3 trinispheres, because trinispheres stop spells like Force of Will.  Here's my thoughts: the 4 Cavern of Souls makes this not as necessary.

Other differences:

+1 Kudoltha Forgemaster
+1 Steel Hellkite
-1 Grim Monolith
-1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
+2 Lightning Greaves
+1 Trinisphere
-1 Staff of Nin
-1 Trading Post

Not sure how much I like any of these changes.  Give me all the Ugins.  I can see the argument for Lighting Greaves being good and wanting lots of them.  Not sure how much they excite me though.  Steel Hellkite never really got me all that excited, and serves a similar purpose to Ugin.  Staff of Nin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249713) does excite me for whatever reason.  It's a ton of value, stands well on its own, but doesn't just instantly shut someone out of the game.  Trading Post makes goats and is therefore awesome.  4 Forgemasters...I mean, Forgemaster does have to live to tap (which he enables with extra lightning greaves) and needs stuff to sac (which he has more of).

So that leaves the 3 Grim Monoliths as the really interesting change that I could get behind.  3 Grim Monolith 4 Trinisphere instead of 4 Grim Monolith 3 Trinisphere?  Interesting!  I will note that Grim Monolith, after its spent, is sac bait for Forgemaster, and his deck has a lot more sac bait (extra lightning greaves, artifact lands).

Eh, the difference between Monolith and Trinisphere is "I do fun things" vs "you can't do fun things".  Think I'll stick closer to "I do fun things" and run 4 monolith, 3 trinisphere, especially as I plan to go the Cavern of Souls route, so Trinisphere isn't as vital.

So overall, not changing much from the original deck I linked in the non-land area.  Trying to decide on Dragon Havens--thinking one or two, in replacement for Vesuva, and...possibly a second one replacing City of Traitors just because it's the most expensive card in the deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 19, 2015, 07:38:42 AM
That Ugin deck is cool, but I definitely can't see assembling real life Legacy decks unless you plan on playing in tournaments.  Just way too expensive, and probably "too good" for casual play anyway.  I guess there's always proxies?

Quote
Myr Battlesphere is a card I tend to fangirl over.

Random story from tonight: I made a Reanimator deck in Cube, but had comparatively weak reanimation targets.  I included Battlesphere anyway as it's FUNNY at least and...  it actually paid off several times, most notably in a giant slugfest where I won about 2 cards before being decked via Battlesphere beatdown.  (If my opponent killed it, I could just resurrect it for MORE Myr, and chump blocking couldn't stop the 4 damage a turn...  nice incentive structure.)

Progenitor Mimic also ended up in the funny reanimator targets pile (although in this case I just hardcast it with the help of Lotus) when my opponent got out a fast Hornet Queen.  And then I tutored up Phyrexian Metamorph using Garruk the Veil Cursed for 8 flying insects & 2 new Hornet Queens every turn.  Good times.  'twas a funny deck.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 20, 2015, 08:16:23 AM
That Ugin deck is cool, but I definitely can't see assembling real life Legacy decks unless you plan on playing in tournaments.  Just way too expensive, and probably "too good" for casual play anyway.  I guess there's always proxies?

Well...I have coworkers who play Legacy sometimes at lunch.  Like...not super optimized lists, which means they don't have 4x Revised Duals and only maxed out their ravnica duals.  but still lists.  I also have friends in LA who are hardcore into Legacy.

And like...$1000, which is about what this list costs?  That's like...one vacation once flight and hotel are accounted for.  And I expect the deck to remain reasonably relevant in Legacy with small modifications basically forever.  And like...I dunno, I like...never spend all this money I make, so finding that I really impulsively wanted something and it's within my budget?  Seems reasonable to buy.  And hypothetically I can sell it for...probably similar amounts of money later on.  Still a more sensible use of money than a sports car, I feel, and plenty of people impulse buy those.

By comparison, last time I saw a magic deck that genuinely appealed to me, it was a standard deck that was rotating out in 3 months, and which...let's see, if I built it now years after most of the cards rotated out it would be...$300.  (And this was a monocolour deck).

---

(I did buy the deck, incidentally.  Or the mainboard, anyway.  The sideboard is maybe half stuff from his sideboard, and half "fuck it, Myr Battlesphere in my sideboard!")

Also, the sideboard has some stuff I wanted to experiment with, like a few people have been hyping up Coercive Portal (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382231) over Staff of Nin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=249713) so I ordered one of those.  Frankly, portal in the abstract is pretty busted compared to classical cards for a 1v1 setting.  If you choose Homage, that always wins ties, which makes it like...Jayemdae Tome (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=275705) where the cost to draw is 0 instead of 4.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 24, 2015, 10:34:08 AM
http://kaitlyn-burnell.tumblr.com/post/114483237028/commanders-now-cant-be-tucked
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 25, 2015, 12:21:22 AM
I am generally pretty happy with that rule, that is honestly how I expected Commander to work from the outset and was puzzled by it.  Why should Commanders have weakness to Blue and White?

Like you clearly outlined, the meta will shift around it and there is always options in Magic.  I really like the way that the answers to Commanders is now the same as other problems fairly equally instead of bouncing/shuffle into deck being an uber kill (and promoting tutoring or card draw, so Blue Uber Alles even more the case, black loves it too or hey Green even has Tutor for Legendary, I know I used it).

So what I am saying, buff red plz.  Make a Bowser card, make it MT and give him the skill.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 25, 2015, 02:51:20 PM
So what I am saying, buff red plz.  Make a Bowser card, make it MT and give him the skill.

Didn't they already do that? (http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/theros/purphoros-god-of-the-forge)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 25, 2015, 07:47:15 PM
No one is complaining that Red is too strong, so not enough yet.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 26, 2015, 04:50:13 PM
Mmmm...people do complain about puphoros decks, actually.  And several other problem decks are at least partially red (Prossh, Maelstrom wanderer).

Also Balefire Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=230774) can go fuck itself.  Shuts out so many fun decks.  Pretty multitarget, kinda Bowserish.

And there's Insurrection (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247347), which generally wins the game whenever I've seen it cast.  Also multitarget.  Bowserish in that kidnapping people is kind-of his thing.  Although I guess he tends to kidnap one person, not all the people, so that's more like Mass Mutiny (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376406), which is also good.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 27, 2015, 05:04:38 PM
So....three card blind is pretty cool.  This one was run with all the Vintage legal cards:

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/30eluz/three_card_blind_round_1_results/

Basically MtG but you only have three cards that start in your hand, and you don't lose the game when you draw cards.  (You still draw cards though).

So...first turn win decks exist, such as...

Laboratory Maniac (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=230788), Black Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382866), Gitaxian Probe (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=233056).  Probe is important, because of the fact that it's a spell so you can let it be countered by Chancellor of the Annex (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218083)

Obviously the third card is a bit of a flex slot.  It doesn't need to be Gitaxian Probe; I've also seen Mental Misstep (athough that does get shut out by Chancellor).  What nobody seemed to run in their third slot of that deck was Chancellor, which is interesting because that would stop the opponent from using Force of Will.

In general, force of will decks beat this though.

Force of Will (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382943), Misthollow Griffin (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=276504), Saprazzan Cove (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19891)

(And there's variants on this that run a 1/1, and just exile the other card with no plans of bringing it back.  Usually  Dryad Arbor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=282542) as the 1/1, with Slippery Boggle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=150999) as the exile, but the Misthollow Griffin is generally considered the best Force of Will decks.

There's also burn decks that can just kill the laboratory maniac:

Chancellor of the Annex, Chancellor of the Forge (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218021), Pyrokinesis (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373356).

Of course, both of these have problems against

True Name Nemesis (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376562), black lotus, Strip Mine (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383113)

The burn plan is bad because it can't target TNN, and the force of will plan gets its land blown up, so...ends in a draw (but most force of will strategies just die to Strip Mine since a land is usually their win con).  Speaking of strip mine builds

Chancellor of the Annex, Fountain of Cho (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19893), strip mine

Uses the ever-popular Chancellor of the Annex, and just...hardcasts it.


Waaay out on the fringe and not as playable, there's also some pure land strategies to play around force of will (which obviously die to Strip Mine) like...

Dark Depths (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=121155), Thespian's Stage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366353), City of Traitors (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=6168)

As well on the fringe there are some Emrakul (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193452) decks, casting with either Black Lotus Channel, or Black Lotus Show and Tell.  These are funny, because if you do get rid of Emrakul somehow, like say Innocent Blood (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205364), then Emrakul shuffles all the cards back into your library and you get to go again.

Some people are also running Karakas (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201198), sometimes with Leyline of Singularity (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=107697), which lets them bounce any creature.

Fun stuff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 28, 2015, 08:20:25 AM
Hopped in for round 2 of this.  The one card banned for round 2 was Chancellor of the Anex.

My deck was Chancellor of the Forge, Pyrokinesis, Strip Mine

My reasoning being I wanted to beat Laboratory Maniac decks, which I reasoned I could do with Pyrokinesis, which I can cast at instant speed before my first turn.  And I wanted to beat the obvious way to kill LabMan decks, which is Force of Will.  (For whatever reason, every Force deck I saw used a land that can't do anything the turn you play it as its win condition--either Dryad Arbor, or a storage land).  I also realized later that I'm not foolproof against Lab Maniac decks.  If they used Gitaxian Probe (a sorcery) like they did last round, then yeah, I could burn them out--but if they use instant speed draw like Street Wraith (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370428) then I'm screwed; I can't kill the LabMan or they'll respond by drawing a card and winning the game.  And all they need to do is wait one turn and they'll draw a card automatically.  Anyway, some cool new tech came up round 2:

Leyline of Anticipation (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205008), Black Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382866), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=270445)

This shuts down any deck that relies on Black Lotus, by making lotus cost 1.  I also like it, because unlike Phyrexian Revoker (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383343) which could also be used to turn off Black Lotus, Thalia has first strike, so she doesn't get a draw against every deck that gets a 1/1 out through Chancellor of the Forge or whatever.

Black Lotus, Balance (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=1329), The Rack (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=109725)

Basically, if you get to cast Balance, you should win.  The only exception is against Emrakul, since Emmy shuffles your graveyard into your library, and thus your opponent will draw back up to 3 cards and not take damage from The Rack.  It's shut down by anti-Black Lotus tech of course (Force of Will, instant Thalia.  I also saw Leyline of Anticipation combined with Chalice of the Void (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370411) on zero).

3xMemnite (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=194078).  For some strange reason, this is a deck.  And for some strange reason it's not as bad as it sounds.  (Would tie against the deck I ran, for instance--they play two Memnites to force out my pyro, killing both, and then play a third Memnite.  Dies to decks that win fast, or have tricks like instant speed Thalia/chalice).

The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=201236), Inkmoth Nexus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=213731), Cathedral of War (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=259680)

Another variant on the all land deck, and honestly probably better than the Dark Depths ones?  Dark Depths wins the heads-up match, because it can pay for Tabernacle, and is faster.  But this is still pretty fast, and lots of decks just can't pay the upkeep from Tabernacle, like any deck that leans on Black Lotus.

Black Lotus, Black Lotus, Barren Glory (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=136048)

Stumped my deck; I was ready to use burn on Laboratory maniacs.  Who prepares removal for enchantments???  There's black lotus hate out there, though, and any of that beats this deck.

Other interesting stuff I saw: variant Eldrazi.  Like...Black Lotus, Channel, Ulamog (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=261321), which is interesting.

Black Lotus, Liliana's Specter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382296), Leyline of Anticiaption (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205008)

This deck is actually really cool.  How much of a 3 card hand do you have to make someone discard before they are crippled?  Usually on 2 cards, a deck can kinda operate, often pump out 2 damage a turn, but because this was cast with Flash, it attacks first, and because it has flying, the opponent has to race.



So anyway, going into round 3.  There's now one more banned card.  (Balance).  My deck did pretty good (46).  I considered running the same deck, but it does lose to Lab Maniac decks.  And I kinda want variety.  The instant speed shenanigans with Thalia are pretty neat, but they lose to Force of Will, and lose to land decks (and land decks did well this time).  I did consider Thalia with Strip Mine instead of Leyline of anticipation.  It then loses the instant speed aspect and only gets a 50% win rate against the decks it really wants to kill.  I considered running a laboratory maniac deck but with Street Wraith instead of Gitaxian Probe.  But a lot of the neat and shiny decks right now are built to be mean to black lotus, like flash Thalia decks.  And a lot of the cool decks right now are built around Black Lotus.  So...my next round deck is going to be like...

Force of Will, Snapback (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=108897), Chancellor of the Forge

Choosing Chancellor here as the wincon, because it bypasses some of the removal (remember how I said last round I used Wasteland to win against Force of Will decks?  Yeah, let's not die to Wasteland).  I also like this, because it doesn't auto-lose to every 3 land deck.  It actually beats the Dark Depths deck, because it bounces the 20/20 token.  Decks it loses to?  Any deck running Cavern of Souls (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=278058) more or less.  ALSO 3X MEMNITE, OH GOD.  I wonder if I should have done Lab Maniac Street Wraith....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 28, 2015, 03:54:21 PM
Why Wasteland over Strip Mine?  Isn't Strip strictly better?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 28, 2015, 04:39:29 PM
Err...yeah, sorry, I was running Strip Mine, not wasteland; that was a typo on my part.  (Not like I faced a single basic land...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 28, 2015, 08:40:06 PM
Did worse this round.  Should have ran Laboratory Maniac, Black Lotus, Street Wraith.  Would have gotten 48.  Instead ran the counterspell suite, and people came prepared for it; got 32.

One interesting deck I lost to:

Scythe Tiger (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=178113)Cavern of Souls (http://, [url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=278058), Strip Mine.

Beats removal.  Beats countermagic.  Doesn't care about being Strip Mined.  Has a Strip Mine to autowin against some decks.

(I've also seen a variant with Llanowar Reborn (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376400) for a bigger Scythe Tiger, but this takes one more card, and opens up strip mine vulnerabilities, while dropping Strip Mine).

EDIT: here's another cute one:

Lion's Eye Diamond (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383000), Lion's Eye Diamond, Haakon, Stromgald Scourge (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=122045).

You get to play it, and if it's countered or dies, you get to play it again!  It's not flawless (some people are running white exile creature spells) but it beats counter, and beats red removal.  And beats the Scythe Tiger deck--it dies once, and then you cast it again.  Actually, something cute you could add would be instead of a nother cute one I've seen is...

Black Lotus, channel, Platinum Angel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=206329)

It beats a bunch of the "you win the game" clauses like Barren Glory.  Not sure if it's actually good, though (dies to removal).  What is interesting is this:

[eldrazi of choice], Lion's Eye Diamond (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383000), Shelldock Isle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=146178)

Play LED first but don't activate it.  Then play Shelldock Isle.  The trigger for searching the top 4 cards of your library goes on the stack.  In response, sac the LED.  LED goes to graveyard.  Then LED's ability resolves, and the Eldrazi goes to the graveyard.  Then you shuffle your graveyard into your library due to the Eldrazi.  Then Shelldock Isle's trigger resolves, choose the Eldrazi obviously.  Next turn you draw Lion's Eye Diamond, and use it to activate the Isle.  I'm not sure if this is good, really, because unlike Channel, you're vulnerable to Strip Mine.  But you pay a lot less life.

EDIT: ok here's an interesting one.  Blackmail (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=83471).  I haven't been too hot on selected discard, but this also lets you select lands, which is cool because it's not dead against triple land decks.  So um blackmail and...a creature; one high scoring deck this time around was running Mutavault.  I think that could be improved by using a dual-land and running Scythe Tiger or something.  This avoids the need for specific anti-counterspell tech (if they're running countermagic, Blackmail them first; you have time).  It does open the deck up to drawing against Strip Mine in half of the games (if they play an untapped Strip Mine, you can't play Tiger, as they'll kill the land before Tiger hits play; this is a problem that's averted by the version of the deck that runs two land).  So mmm...yeah, it'd open up some vulnerabilities to Strip Mine.  I think any Blackmail deck is going to have vulnerabilities to Strip Mine, though (certainly the Mutavault one does).

Hmmm...ok, here's one that looks cool to me:

Chalice of the Void (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370411), City of Trators (http://City of Trators), Porcelain Legionnaire (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=218043)

There's actually flexibility here; Chalice can be set on 0 or 1 (relevant since there are some decks with two 1 CMC things and a land).  And Legionnaire is really good in combat.  Beats or ties everything but Thalia.  Eventually loses to Student of Warfare (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193598), although probably not fast enough?  Student usually goes along with a 1 mana removal spell, so Chalice for 1, student gets levelled once, you're at 19.  Play Legionnaire.  Student gets levelled to 2, doesn't attack because it doesn't want a draw.  You attack (they're at 17).  Student level 3, they attack (16).  You attack (14).  Student level 4, they attack (13).  You attack (11).  Student level 5, they attack (10).  You attack (7).  Student level 6, they attack (7).  You attack (8).  Student level 7 they win.  And obviously if you don't attack they just sit back and level up.

Well...hmm...know what that can't race?  Stormkirk Noble (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=230783).  Student of Warfare is a human!  As is Thalia.  And uhh...Mutavault which some people run.  Still probably not worth-it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2015, 03:02:14 AM
Side note, kinda cute deck concept I've thought of:

Chancellor of the Forge, Chancellor of the Forge, Leyline of the Meek.

I mean, it dies against people running creature removal, and it dies to most combos but it beats...

1. a lot of land destuction decks
2. most discard decks
3. most counterspell decks.
4. some mana cost disruption decks (Leyline Chalice, for instance.  Thalia has first strike so she does fine).

Hmmm...what am I trying to acomplish with this...let's see, I started thinking about this, because I was considering the idea of

Leyline of Anticipation / Black Lotus / Big Threat

The idea being there's lots of anti-black-lotus tech, but you can dodge that disruption due to playing Black Lotus at instant speed.

What are big threat options?  Well there's True Name Nemesis.  I don't really like it and here's why--the discard decks are running The Rack (which would deal 3 damage on upkeep).  Or alternatively Shrieking Affliction (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=265409).  Both of these deal 3 damage to the player on their upkeep, and thus will always win the race because True Name Nemesis deals 3 damage during that player's combat step.

I don't like stuff with 2 power (dies to Thalia, trades with Mishra's factory).  If we're going to lose to Force of Will and instant win combos, we'd better beat the other decks.

Brimaz, King of Oreskos (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=378377) is a good example of what I'm talking about.  Kills in 4 turns.  Beats the 2/1 first strikes, the 3/2s, the 3/1 first strikes.  Bonus points for getting around Maze of Ith which is getting popular.  But on the other hand it does die to the free red spell (Pyrokinesis) that deals 4 damage.  Are there any tougher options?  Well there's Hanweir Watchkeep (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=244683), which is cool I guess.  Although...honestly, even against the red deck it's still a draw, since they can block with their 1/1 token, and then deal the remaining 4 damage.  Leatherback Baloth isn't any more exciting.  Master of the Feast (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=380455) is hillarious in this format, and is flying so avoids the "chump and deal 4 damage" trick.  Nyxarthid (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=186616) is great.  If they try to kill it with the 4 damage  red spell, it immediately grows to 6/6.

Alternatively, if I want to dodge removal, the removal in this format seems to be mostly white, red, and land (Karakas/Maze of Ith).  I can get around all but the lands with Phyrexian Crusader (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=213724) (who admitedly only trades with Thalia, mind you).  Is there anything with protection from lands?  hillariously yes (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=180412), but it's no faster than True Name Nemesis, so no point in that.

So mmm...I don't think these options are all that great, (loses to counterspell, instant win decks, and often some kind of removal or just a faster clock).  But it's fun to think about.  Ooh, just realized there's plenty of people who run Karakas without Leyline of Singularity, so yeah, Brimaz is a definite no.  I think Master of the Feast is slightly better than Nixathid because it flies and thus can stalemate with Platinum angel?

EDIT:

OOh, just saw a deck with Black Lotus into Arc Blade (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=126193).  That's a neat idea too, kills something.

EDIT 2:

Just saw someone running basically this deck but with Fiend Hunter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376331) as the creature; that's clever as it can potentially disrupt some of the instant win combos.  Aaand someone else is doing it with Magus of the Moon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=136152).  That's actually really smart, because it shuts down land based removal, and shuts down almost all white based removal (since every white deck runs Karakas).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2015, 03:36:55 AM
Oh interesting--speaking of decks with fast clocks:

Strip Mine, Mishra's Factory, The Rack

Strip Mine actually serves double duty here, either screwing over the opponent, or turning on Mishra's Factory.  Mishra's Factory can block as a 3/3, so shuts down a lot of attackers.  The Rack is an unblockable clock.  There's two threats, which is good because pretty much only countermagic stops The Rack, and only land destruction (or removal) kills factory, and no deck has space for both removal and countermagic.

I guess it has a weird matchup against Force of Will Griffin.  Let's see...don't play the Rack right away because it'll just get forced, and then you'd need to blow up their land so that they can't play Griffin.  So...just attack several times; I think 4-5 depending on who goes first before they can cast Griffin.  They're forced to cast griffin to not die...and then the coast is clear to cast The Rack.  And...no need to blow up their land now, because there's nothing left to Force of Will, so if they swing with Griffin, swing back for 2.  Yeah, ok, this beats Force of Will decks.  (Now, if people start running Mental Misstep...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2015, 10:32:10 AM
Ooh, shiny tech: Leonin Squire (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=72722).

Previously people had been doing shenanigans with Treasure Hunter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=135232), which costs 3, so its the entire cost of a black lotus.  This costs 2, which opens up possibilities for 4 cost spells, and opens up the possibility for two-colour spells like Meddling Mage.

Is this at all useful?  Ehh...probably not.  Planeswalkers...a lot of them just draw cards (useless) or make creature tokens (decent, but not super exciting).  Auriok Salvagers...you can probably set up infinite mana, but that doesn't help when you have nothing to spend it on.  Flametongue Kavu is cool, but leads to stalemates since if your opponent refuses to play their creature, you're forced to target your own stuff.

Lodestone Golem (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=220536) is cool.  Thrun, the Last Troll (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214050) is handy because it doesn't die to removal.  But like...I don't think these are quite good enough (for a sorcery speed black lotus deck, you need to compete with combos that outright win the game).

Balancing act (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=31819)--ok now this is something that doesn't have a direct comparison.  On the draw you should beat basically everyone.  On the play you beat most decks, but they only have to sac down to 1 permanent, and the one permanent might be Emrakul.  The player I saw running this played Null chamber (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=3506), but I'm pretty sure that's just worse than Balancing Act (except against Emrakul decks).

So...yeah, that's kind-of interesting.  I think Balancing Act is the good one.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 29, 2015, 10:48:11 AM
Squire/Lotus/Act seems like it rolls to Force of Will decks.  (And Chancellor of the Annex decks, if it wasn't banned, but it is.)  Possibly goofy Loxodon Smiter tech too, for all that this is probably rare.  Unless they're already on round 3 & Force is banned?

Cool idea though, you should run with it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2015, 09:40:33 PM
Ha, well I already ran with Strip Mine, Misrha's Factory, The Rack.

Round 3 ban is Laboratory Maniac.

I think Blackmail is going to be very popular this round, and this deck survives Blackmail because it has two threats.  I think Flash Thalia is going to be popular this round, and this deck beats Thalia because it has two mana sources to pay the extra cost on her activation.

I also just expect the format to slow down a lot, with more people running tap lands.

I dunno though.  One of the draws of this deck are that it beats countermagic, and it's possible countermagic will be lower now that Lab Maniac is no longer the boogeyman in the format?  The Balancing Act deck certainly wins on the play against everything but countermagic.  Loses on the draw.

The other question is whether the Balancing Act deck really beats all that much that the Swamp, Strip Mine, Blackmail misses.  If you go first and Blackmail, that's usually enough to win, and Blackmail beats Force of Will decks because it Blackmail's out the Force of Will (whereas Balancing Act loses to Force of Will).  I guess Balancing Act is better against certain land destruction decks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 30, 2015, 01:38:25 AM
Hold on a sec - how does Balancing Act win so consistently again?  On the play, it can usually guarantee a draw with Act via emptying the opponent's hand (fails against Leyline of Anticipation + Lotus + Thalia, but not much else), but on the draw or waiting for 2nd turn on the play, you have to hope that the 1 permanent your opponent keeps loses the race to Squire.  So beats Memnite / Dryad Arbor, but loses to Thalia / The Rack / beefier threats / etc.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 30, 2015, 07:12:49 AM
Hold on a sec - how does Balancing Act win so consistently again?

I'm...not sure it does win consistently, that's why I didn't run it.  (Basically it wins if your threat is better than their threat...I mean...assuming you didn't just lose because all Black Lotus decks that aren't running Leyline of Anticipation just die to Black Lotus hate).  It wins if you go first, because you make them discard their entire hand and they never get to play their threat.  If you go second...you'd better hope they don't have a threat scarier than 2/2, AND that they don't have black lotus hate, or their own discard, or whatever.  Which is to say...yes, it's going to WL against a looooot of decks.  LL against Thalia and Force of Will decks.  So...overall...well let's just compare it to a random pod, shall we?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Gk2Sj-9FBvYAdd311Fkli0ne0ra0RA9EvTUzKIVt_H0/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Pod 1
2. Leyline Thalia: (LL 0)
3. The Rack: (WL 3)
4. Mishra's Factory, Karakas, Dismember: (WD 7)  (On the draw, they dismember the 2/2 in response)
5. Phyrexian Revoker: (WL 10)
6. Gaea's Revenge: (WD 14) (On the draw, they keep Maze of Ith)
7. Force of Will: (LL 14)
8. Liliana's Specter: (LL 14) (Flash gives it pseudo haste, and you can't even force a draw by threatening to block because it has flying)
9. Forbidden Orchard: (WL 17) (Yeah...so Orchard was super secret tech against Barren Glory.  This deck is actually terrible, since Leyline of Anticipation would make it beat every Barren Glory deck anyway)
10. Inkmoth Nexus: (WD 21) (They keep Maze of Ith)
11. Leyline of Singularity: (WD 24) (They bounce with Karakas in response to the Balancing Act; everything dies)
12. The Rack: (WL 27)

Actually we should have stopped at the 10th opponent because pods usually mean facing 10 people not 11.  But...yeaaah, 24/60 is bad.  My first round with Pyrokinesis I got 42/60 I think.  Second round with Force of Will I got 32/60, which is not where I'd like it to be.  Bear in mind, anyone can submit decks, some suck, I've seen ones that literally can't cast anything.  So...getting less than 30/60 is pretty bad to be honest.






Side note, there was one deck that I saw and didn't take particular note of, but now that I look at it more closely...ooh that is some damn good tech.

The deck centered around Gaea's Revenge (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205033) (and storage lands to actually cast it, and then a third slot that can go to whatever disruption; Wasteland, Mental Misstep, Chalice of the Void; the version above runs Maze of Ith, which makes sense as it does take about 10 turns to build up the mana for the damn thing.

I hadn't fully clued in on why this is so good at first, but here's why: it can't be countered, so you don't need to worry about Cavern of Souls, and it can't be targeted by things that are not green.  Obviously this protects it from red removal and white removal.  But what I hadn't clued in on before is that...guess what's not green?  Lands are not green.  This dodges Karakas, Maze of Ith, etc.  I don't think the deck is good enough to run necessarily (has several vulnerabilities).  But for a top-end threat, this is a really, really cute one.  Thrun the last Troll might be better because it's hexproof, uncounterable, and cheaper, while being 4/4 (enough to beat almost everything in this format).  But like...in terms of high end threats?  This is a good one.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K on March 30, 2015, 12:29:20 PM
*glances at topic*
*sees they reprinted Black Lotus*
*shakes head and leaves topic*
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 30, 2015, 03:19:22 PM
It was only "reprinted" for the online format specifically for Vintage play, which is pretty harmless but allows for players of the online game to actually experience the cards for themselves in certain formats.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 30, 2015, 03:26:47 PM
Quote
It wins if you go first, because you make them discard their entire hand and they never get to play their threat.

That's a draw though unless I'm missing something obvious - YOU now have 0 permanents left too (you had to sac Squire to equalize at 0 permanents on the board, not just cards in hand) so it's a draw.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 31, 2015, 03:58:21 PM
Quote
It wins if you go first, because you make them discard their entire hand and they never get to play their threat.

That's a draw though unless I'm missing something obvious - YOU now have 0 permanents left too (you had to sac Squire to equalize at 0 permanents on the board, not just cards in hand) so it's a draw.

Oh snap, didn't realize it would force you to sac the squire.  Derp.  OK that deck just plain doesn't work.

Anyway, round 4 results are in.  30/60 :/  There were four double-black-lotus style decks in my pod.  I would have done better with Blackmail, The Rack (but only 36/40).  All the anti-black lotus tech is kinda mediocre in the pod too.


So...decks that did well this round were mostly new threats, and mostly black lotus into discard.

Black Lotus, Channel, Karn Liberated (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=214350) (had two of these in my pod >_<).

Karn is impressive, because he matches well against basically every other frequent Black Lotus target right now.  (Emrakul?  WW.  Form of the Dragon?  WW.  Platinum Angel?  WW).  He does get some weird draws, though.  Like...Karn vs Karn neither player can ever win; DD.  Karn vs Pyrokinesis decks--they just exile their only win condition when Karn tries to take it.  DD.  Naturally it loses if you stop it from casting Karn; WL against every discard deck; LL against any deck running Leyline of Anticipation and approprate hate.

Black Lotus, Liliana of the Veil (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=235597), Nether Spirit (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=19693)

This works very similar to Karn--on the play, it makes them discard.  On the draw, it kills their creature.  Nether Spirit is nice.  The matchups where you'd rather be running this than Karn are like...vs Karn (WL is worth more points than DD).  vs Pyrokinesis (this crushes Pyrokinesis.  WW worth a fair bit more than DD).  On the flip side, this loses to some funky stuff on the draw that Karn wouldn't lose to, like Barren Glory if those decks are still around, and Form of the Dragon, and Platinum Angel....  On the flip side, it's not the only Nether Shadow deck on the block; that card is now quite popular, and Loxodon Smiter is gaining some popularity too, so making them discard isn't always that great.  OH, derp, this draws against Emrakul on the play.  If you make them discard, they discard Emrakul; combo still intact.

Another cool deck was
Black Lotus, Blackmail, Bitterblossom (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=152648)

On the list of "what is the scariest card you can run for 2 mana" yeah, Bitterblossom is absolutely terrifying.  Hmm...this loses to Emrakul on the play, which is not a problem that either Liliana or Karn had.  Hmm...I am having trouble thinking of a scenario where this wins, and Liliana/Nether Spirit does not, however.  OH!  Maybe like against the deck I ran this round, which had The Rack, but did not have Blackmail.  Let's see...Liliana loses to any Rack deck like 100% (only takes two cards to play The Rack so she can't make them discard it, and she can't outrace it, and her ult can never kill it).  Blackmail into Bittlerblossom on the play would make me discard The Rack, would make a Blackmail, Rack player discard their land, get a win there.  On the draw against Blackmail, just loses the Lotus of course.  On the draw against my version of The Rack...can't stop The Rack from coming down.  Can stop Mishra's Factory.  The clock is still too fast, I think (with the self-harm of the bitterblossom, 5 turn clock).

So ok, it wins in cases when targeted discard is better, Bitterblossom will win on the play.  On the draw I think Liliana is almost always better.

Let's see...in my pod (so out of 66) it would go...Karn 48, Liliana 35 Bitterblossom 36.

In the pod of the person with the highest score (Mountain, Burning inquiry, Nether Spirit; easy pod to be honest...).  The relevant differences are that...against a hymn to tourach deck the Liliana deck still got a Nether Spirit  so had a draw instead of a loss (should have been a loss if they used Shrieking Affliction (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=265409) like a normal optimal Hymn deck).

There's a Citadel of War, Inkmoth Nexus, Tabernacle deck.  Tabernacle kinda wrecks both Liliana and Bitterblossom.  BB has to break up the Inkmoth Nexus combo and not play Bitterblossom (DD).  Liliana is DL?  Actually no, she can threaten an ult--have to kill her first.  Takes 4 turns to kill her, and then 5 to poison the player--yep, still an outright loss.  And there's a Form of the Dragon deck (Karn beats, everyone else WLs against).  Oh, and a Dark Depths, Black Lotus, Vampire Hexmage; instant 20/20 indestructible flying.  Liliana beats that via sac.  Karn draws on the play, since literally all their cards are in the graveyard; nothing to steal.  Oh, Karn also gets a draw against some stupid deck that can't win.

Overall by my count Karn: 59, Liliana 53, Bitterblossom 53, (the deck that won that pod: 47--like I said, really easy pod)

Next highest score was like...one of the Karns in my pod, ok.

Ooh, ok, here's an interesting, kinda suboptimal deck in another pod.  Nether Spirit, Lion's Eye Diamond, Violent Eruption (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=34253).  Liliana goes DD against that (she dies to Eruption).  Bitterblossom goes WW? (on the play, take LED, on the draw...force em to burn your face, 16.  Next turn, he can't attack yet, you get a faerie, 15.  Turn after that, he attacks, no blocks, 13, you get another faerie, go to 12, attack to 19.  He attacks, 10, get a faerie, 9, attack 17.  He attacks, 7, get a faerie 6, attack 14.  Now you start chump blocking, and attacking with 3 faeries.  Yep, win, but down to the last turn).  Karn just wins, ofc.

Another suboptimal but moderately scary deck in that pod (which nonetheless got 45 points) makes a vanilla 2/2, and a vanilla 5/6.  Karn smashes that WW.  Liliana...wins on the play of course.  Draws on the draw (the sacrifice will kill the 2/2, then the 5/6 kills her.  Every turn after that Nether Sprit blocks).  Bitterblossom wins on the play, gets murdered on the draw.

But yeah, definitely seeing a pattern here.  Karn is good.  Karn exiles, and this matters.  +4 loyalty is a lot--True Name Nemesis can't stop him from ulting (although does force a draw when on the play--that's one place Liliana is better as she can kill TNN.  Bitterblossom gets wrecked vs TNN.  But nobody is playing that deck right now so whatever).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 31, 2015, 04:25:38 PM
Ooh, ok, round 5 banlists are out.

4 cards added to the banlist

The Rack
Blackmail
Strip Mine
Ghost Quarter (Ghost Quarter is functionally identical to Strip Mine in this format)

lolol, none of this stops me from running Karn!  Submitted!

The Rack...one of the key decks that beat it was Chancellor of the Forge...which is also the deck that obnoxiously goes DD against Karn, so that makes me happy.  Blackmail...literally there are equivalent cards that just can't take lands, so all this does is power up the triple land decks a bit.  The removal of Strip Mine...like a bunch of people are going to jump on that and make basic land decks now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 02, 2015, 07:51:53 AM
lololol got destroyed 24/54, slightly below 50% winrate.  Hit literally the only Pithing Needle deck in the pool (all 1 of them).  Hit one of two Phyrexian Revoker decks in the pool.  After submitting I realized "theoretically Revoker could be used to counter planeswalker decks, but...naaaaah won't get run much."  I was right!  But my pool :(.  One force deck.  One Flash Thalia deck.  A few decks with T1 discard going WL or whatever.  Karn decks in other pods did fine.

Someone did get a perfect score in a different pod, though.  Black Lotus, Channel, Ulamog.  I realize now why some people run Ulamog over Emrakul: The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is a destroy effect, so Ulamog survives it.

If I had to guess about a ban card this round, it's probably going to be Barren Glory, as lots of people are complaining about it.  I don't think it's necessarily the best of the double lotus style decks.

A deck that's good and that I haven't been paying attention to:

Ensnaring Bridge (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=45478), Mishra's Workshop (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383015), Scalding Tongs (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=4627)

There's been maybe two people running it, but it has performed consistently well.  Beats Eldrazi.  Beats manlands.  Beats general beatdown.  Goes DD vs force of will.  Goes LL to Thalia.  Goes LL vs planeswalkers.  Often draws against discard.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 05, 2015, 05:29:26 AM
So...I wrote this.

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/31goxb/analysis_who_does_win_in_a_fight_between_all_the/

My original writing was actually about double the length, but it wouldn't fit within reddit's character limit, so I had to cut out some parts of the analysis.  But the core is still there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 12, 2015, 08:09:11 PM
So...pretty interesting decks played at the pro-tour.  The one that caught everyone off-guard was the Chromanticore (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=378516) deck.  (Didn't win or anything, but was played by some pretty serious players).  You can ctrl+f for Zvi Mowshowitz here (http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/ptdtk/18-20-point-standard-decklists-2015-04-12) to see the deck.  The story being that they were testing a lot of different decks in the channel fireball teamhouse and this one kept performing the best.

Now, Chromanticore is a card I look at, and think it's not that great.  The comparison, for a 5 mana creature, is Baneslayer Angel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=205077).  Chromanticore gains vigilance and Trample, in exchange for being 4/4 instead of 5/5 (and losing protection from D&D...which would be crazy relevant right now as the dragon set just came out).  Frankly, flying doesn't do that much.  Vigilance is relevant--against an aggro deck, being able to attack, gain life, and then threaten to block and gain life (for a net 8 lifegain per turn) is a big deal.  4 toughness probably hurts more against the aggro decks, though; if they can't kill Baneslayer because it's a 5/5, they still tend to lose like...100% of the time.

The relevant combo with Chromanticore is Soulflayer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391928), which lets you get a creature with these abilities, often for as little as 2 mana, and often with extra abilities as well.  What extra abilities?  Well...

Hexproof (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373624) from a card you were probably running anyway.

Indestructible (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=380469) from a card you're ok with running.

And then a bunch of cards that dump things in your graveyard.  Satyr Wayfinder (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383371), Commune with the Gods (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373656), Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386664).  (Note that the former two have a strong interaction with Sidisi by making more zombies).

But wait, you say, none of these cards are new.  Why did people just start playing this deck now?

The answer seems to be Deathmist Raptor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394533), Den Protector (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394535).  Two more cards that really like being in a self-mill deck.

Despite being technically a 5 colour deck, which is very capable of casting/bestowing Chromanticore thanks to dual lands and triple lands, the deck is mostly green black (and heavier green of the two).  Blue being the only other colour used for non-Chromanticore spells (3 Sidisi, 2 Silumgar).  Neat stuff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 13, 2015, 07:31:11 AM
As for the rest of the pro tour...it pretty much comes down to this.

The most recently released set, "Dragons of Tarkir", has some really powerful expensive creatures (dragons).  Kind of the point of the set.  They're in every colour.  Here's a couple of them.

Dragonlord Atarka (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394546) 8/8 flying trample for 7 mana; when it enters the battlefield deal 5 damage divided as you choose among any number of target creatures and/or planeswalkers.

Dragonlord Ojutai (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394549) 5/4 flying, can't be targeted while it's untapped.  When it deals combat damage to an opponent, you get to Impulse!  (Or, more accurately, Anticipate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394493)).

If these look good, it's probably because they are, and yeah people were playing them.


So...what's the best thing to play when people are casting 7 mana creatures?  How about countermagic?  Disdainful Stroke (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386519), Silumgar's Scorn (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394706).  And as it turns out, there's pretty good instant speed card draw right now too, like Anticipate (linked above) Dig Through Time (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386518), Jace's Ingenuity (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383286), and plenty of instant speed creature kill so....you can play draw-go.

Which means going into the top 8, the most common archetype by far was blue black draw-go control.  The other common archetype was mostly mono-green, ramping up for the big 7 mana red/green dragon, but the blue black control decks crushed all of those.

This then had a nice control path laid out for the eventual winner...a red aggro/burn deck with 13 one-drops, and lots of haste, and some token making spells, and a bunch of burn spells to point at the opponent's face.  Notably the deck is built around optimising its splash card, The red/green command (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394502) which when it pumps a bunch of tokens can deal easily 6 damage from a 2 mana spell.  Know what other spell can do that?  Become Immense (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386487), which is included as a 1-of since the deck was already splashing green for the red-green command.

Anyway, deck fought three control decks during the top 8, and kinda rolled through all three.

Funnily enough, red aggro wasn't uncommon in the tournament (lots of people were running it) but its overall numbers across everyone playing it were very average.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 25, 2015, 07:29:23 PM
So I'm vaguely thinking about making a dragon EDH deck, since I did get a number of dragons from fate reforged.  Problem is, ones I got are like...white/green and black/red.  So that's already pushing me into four colour.  And once I'm in four colour, there are no four colour legendaries so I'm basically pushed to 5 colour.

Another thing to note: a dragon set just came out.  A lot of dragons are just up in price.  Like...look at the price history on Utvara Hellkite (http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/return-to-ravnica/utvara-hellkite).  Not played in any format.  Not currently in standard.  Quadrupled in price around the time a bunch of dragon sets were made.  If I actually want to buy cards for this instead of just proxying, my best bet would be to wait a year or so for the novelty to wear off.

What general to use?

Scion of the ur-Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=116745) is obvious, but also maybe not the deck I want to build, as it would probably tutor the same silver bullet every time.

OK, so what are the cards that really synergize with running lots of dragons?


Dragon Tempest (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394542) (which I have)
Thunderbreak Regent (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394730)
Dromoka, The Eternal (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391825) (which I have)
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391866) (which I have)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391924)
Atarka, World Render (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391796)
Ojutai, Soul of Winter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391889)
Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=180587) (mostly just for haste+untap)
Scourge of Valkas[//url]
[url=http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=247401]Baldewing the Risen (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370584)
Crucible of Fire (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383220)
Crux of Fate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391813)
Kilnmouth Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243477)
Sarkhan the Mad (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=193659)

So that's 14 cards that benefit from a tribal theme.

And then you know, a few cards that can go into any tribal deck like

Patriarch's Bidding (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=26747)

OK, so what does the deck look like?

Probably 10 signet, 10 Karoo, 10 Tri-lands.  Some 5 colour lands like Haven of the Spirit Dragon, Command Tower.

I probably want Chromatic Lantern (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=290542) for colour fixing?  Although it is bad with Karoos.  Cultivate (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376290)+Kodama's reach, Explosive Vegetation (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394569).  And like...the number of karoos are going to make stuff like Surveyor's Scope (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376531), or Khalni Heart Expedition (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=186320) good.  There's also Gilded Lotus (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373335) as an option, although 5 mana is around the time I'll want to be slamming out dragons, so maybe not.  Also, Sol Ring, despite not making coloured mana is still really good at casting signets.

And...I think this is a deck that actually does run less than 40 land, because of all the signets and karoos.  Roughly 22 land is already spoken for.  I probably want extra green if I'm doing green mana searching.  And some dragons require triple red, so probably at least 3 mountains.  So...bare minimum basics would be like...1 plains, 1 island, 1 swamp, 3 mountain, 3 forest, that's 9 basics (up to 31 land).  Add Bojuka Bog (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=389446) because Karoos bounce that.  So...32 land.

I think I also want Amulet of Vigor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191577), because like...21 of the 32 lands ETB tapped, and Amulet does really powerful stuff with Karoos (you can play a Karoo, untap it, tap it for mana, and then return the karoo to your hand).

OK, so what's this looking like...

32 land
10 signet
8ish other mana spells?  (Amulet, Sol Ring, Surveyor's Scope, Cultivate, Kodama's Reach, Explosive Vegetation, Khalni Heart Expedition, Coalition Relic (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209158)).

Coalition Relic seems better than Chromatic Lantern given that the land ability doesn't mean as much for me.  Although...Coalition Relic is actually a $5 rare; not sure I care that much.  Not that Chromatic Lantern is any better.  Well there's Burnished Hart (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=389454) as an alternative that has been used against me and seemed really good.  Or just cut that slot; 49 mana cards is fine.

Hmm...kinda want to cut Khalni Heart Expedition--it's good with Karoos, but bad with 32 land.

I am vaguely tempted by Etherium Sculptor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370378), because it lets you play signets for 1 mana.  But like...there's equivalent cards that reduce the cost of dragons (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394552) which I own, so maybe I should just play that.

Hmmm...an interesting alternative manabase would be Maze's End (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369038) and replace all the tri-lands with gates.  But...naaah, not sure that's worth it; not unless the tri lands are prohibitive.

Ok, so what am I thinking for the rest of the deck?

Some control and removal elements.  Possibly ones that say dragon or have dragon mechanics.  Reserve like...5-10ish deck slots for these or something.

Some card draw.  I'm actually thinking that cards which cost 4+ should basically all be dragons (for thematic reasons and to put deckbuilding restrictions on myself), so this would mostly be lower cost stuff like Phyrexian Arena (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=209132) and Mystic Remora (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=159831) and Underworld Connections (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=380227) and maybe Grim Haruspex (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394075)?  Maybe babyjace?  Dragonlord's Perogative (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394551) says dragon on it, so that.

OK, so on to the dragons that don't explicitly have tribal interactions.  First off, because there are so many tribal interactions, I think we want every card that makes multiple dragons, so like...

Broodmate Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=178101)
Dragon Broodmother (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=189648)
Dragonmaster Outcast (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=197854)
Sarkhan Unbroken (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394675)
Sarkhan Vol (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370566)

(And there's a few others, but they tend to involve some significant investment like Dragon Roost (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=143024) so...mmm)

So like...ok given that the deck is about 50% mana, we're looking at about 50 non-mana spells.

15 dragon tribal cards outlined above.
5 dragon token producers
5-10 controlish cards
Card draw...I listed 4-5 above.

Fill the deck out with 15-20 dragons?

Yeah, something like that.

Again, I'd probably proxy first, and then wait for the gold rush of "cards with 'dragon' on them are way more expensive right now" to calm down.



A few random cards I took note of, but did not mention above.

Probably for being cool
Descent of Dragons (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394536)

Kinda sorta maybe
Bladewing's Thrall (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=47224)
Fearsome Awakening (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=391830)

Some tutor options (noting that I prefer to stay light on tutors in the spirit of the format)
Scion of the ur Dragon
Dragonstorm
Imperial Hellkite
Zirilan of the Claw
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 28, 2015, 07:53:36 AM
Alright, a few that I missed

Kaalia of the Vast (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338444)

And then some general dragons that I'm filling out that "15-20 dragons" with:

Hoarding Dragon
Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon
Spellbound Dragon
Destructor Dragon
Flameblast Dragon
Forgestoker Dragon
Hoard-Smelter Dragon
Mana-Charged Dragon
Mordant Dragon
Balefire Dragon
Dragon Mage
Knollspine Dragon
Furnace Dragon
Slumbering Dragon
Dragonlord Ojutai
Harbinger of the Hunt
Icefall Regent
Sunscorch Regent
Thundermaw Hellkite
Dragonlord Dromoka
Dragonlord Kolaghan
Dragonlord Silumgar
Dromar, the Banisher
Hellkite Charger
Hellkite Tyrant
Intet, the Dreamer
Keiga, the Tide Star
Kokusho, the Evening Star
Malfegor
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius
Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind
Prossh, Skyraider of Kher
Rith, the Awakener
Savage Ventmaw
Scourge of the Throne
Steel Hellkite
Teneb, the Harvester
Yosei, the Morning Star
Deathbringer Regent
Dragonlord Atarka
Siege Dragon
Tyrant's Familiar
Bogardan Hellkite
Nicol Bolas
Scourge of Kher Ridges


How many is that?  45?  Hmmm...ok, going to have to break this down.

Two things that strike me:

1. priority goes to those that provide card advantage, or removal.
2. Additional priority goes to those that don't require mana to do so.

Hoarding Dragon -- maybe (+1 card, an artifact.  I have specifically Amulet of Vigor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=191577) in mind, but even that might not be all that wonderful by the time I play a 5 mana dragon and it dies.)
Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon -- no
Spellbound Dragon -- maybe (looting is semi card advantage)
Destructor Dragon -- no ish (it's a 2-for-1, but not great)
Flameblast Dragon -- maybe (repeated killing...but only for a mana sink)
Forgestoker Dragon -- no (repeated killing, but underwhelming at it for mana)
Hoard-Smelter Dragon -- maybe (repeated artifact kill...but costs mana)
Mana-Charged Dragon -- maybe (fails my criteria, but it's hillarious)
Mordant Dragon -- tentative yes (kills things without mana)
Balefire Dragon -- yes (much stronger Mordant Dragon)
Dragon Mage -- maybe (draw 7 is pretty good, I just fear other decks can take advantage of it better)
Knollspine Dragon -- yes (card draw, plenty of it)
Furnace Dragon -- yes (mass artifact exiling)
Slumbering Dragon -- ...maybe (it's just big, but the fact that it costs 1 is relevant; I'll get to that later)
Dragonlord Ojutai -- yes (card draw)
Harbinger of the Hunt -- maybe (sweeper, but costs mana)
Icefall Regent -- yes (removal; can shut down certain problem commanders)
Sunscorch Regent -- yes (it is "just big" but in a way that's very good in EDH, and lifegain will probably be relevant)
Thundermaw Hellkite -- yes (it's not much AoE, but it's free, and it's a tap, and it's haste)
Dragonlord Dromoka -- yes (I own it; lifegain may be relevant)
Dragonlord Kolaghan -- maybe (it's another source of "your creatures have haste"--actually it belongs more in the "buffing" category)
Dragonlord Silumgar -- yes (removal)
Dromar, the Banisher -- maybe (it's...powerful, but costs mana, but it also hits my stuff...)
Hellkite Charger -- maybe (that's a lot of mana, but a second attack step is good)
Hellkite Tyrant -- yes (steal all the artifacts)
Intet, the Dreamer -- yes (the ability costs mana, but it nulls the mana of the card, so it's a win.  And card draw)
Keiga, the Tide Star -- yes (removal)
Kokusho, the Evening Star -- yes (lifegain)
Malfegor -- yes, I think (removal, and just hits a different vector than the damage based removal that most dragons do)
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius -- yes (card draw)
Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind -- yes (card draw)
Prossh, Skyraider of Kher -- no (a little bit tempting just for the "sacrifice a creature:" text but...no)
Rith, the Awakener -- no (powerful card but...I won't be running ways to make saprolings good)
Savage Ventmaw -- yes (a bit unorthodox, but yes, 6 mana is cool)
Scourge of the Throne -- yes (completely free extra attack?  ok)
Steel Hellkite -- yes (costs mana, but it kills literally anything if you're using it)
Teneb, the Harvester -- yes ("from a graveyard" you say?)
Yosei, the Morning Star -- maybe (yosei is disgusting with recursion; don't have much; but locking down one player for one turn is...a bit borderline?)
Deathbringer Regent -- yes (it's a wrath that will basically always be active)
Dragonlord Atarka -- yes
Siege Dragon -- yes (note that it doesn't have to get through unblocked)
Tyrant's Familiar -- yes (note that it doesn't have to get through unblocked)
Bogardan Hellkite -- y...maybe (the comparison to Atarka isn't looking great here)
Nicol Bolas -- yes? (I suppose technically this should be a maybe if I was being consistent, but fuck it, it's nicol bolas)
Scourge of Kher Ridges -- maybe (costs mana, etc)

ok...next pass...taking Spellbound Dragon over Mordant Dragon, but mostly looking at the yes count...this is still 26

Spellbound Dragon -- maybe (looting is semi card advantage)
Balefire Dragon -- yes (much stronger Mordant Dragon)
Knollspine Dragon -- yes (card draw, plenty of it)
Furnace Dragon -- yes (mass artifact exiling)
Dragonlord Ojutai -- yes (card draw)
Icefall Regent -- yes (removal; can shut down certain problem commanders)
Sunscorch Regent -- yes (it is "just big" but in a way that's very good in EDH, and lifegain will probably be relevant)
Thundermaw Hellkite -- yes (it's not much AoE, but it AoEs for free, and it's a tap on all blockers, and it's haste)
Dragonlord Dromoka -- yes (I own it; lifegain may be relevant)
Dragonlord Silumgar -- yes (removal)
Hellkite Tyrant -- yes (steal all the artifacts)
Intet, the Dreamer -- yes (the ability costs mana, but it nulls the mana of the card, so it's a win.  And card draw)
Keiga, the Tide Star -- yes (removal)
Kokusho, the Evening Star -- yes (lifegain)
Malfegor -- yes, I think (removal, and just hits a different vector than the damage based removal that most dragons do)
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius -- yes (card draw)
Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind -- yes (card draw)
Savage Ventmaw -- yes (a bit unorthodox, but yes, 6 mana is cool)
Scourge of the Throne -- yes (completely free extra attack?  ok)
Steel Hellkite -- yes (costs mana, but it kills literally anything if you're using it)
Teneb, the Harvester -- yes ("from a graveyard" you say?)
Deathbringer Regent -- yes (it's a wrath that will basically always be active)
Dragonlord Atarka -- yes
Siege Dragon -- yes (note that it doesn't have to get through unblocked)
Tyrant's Familiar -- yes (note that it doesn't have to get through unblocked)
Nicol Bolas -- yes? (I suppose technically this should be a maybe if I was being consistent, but fuck it, it's nicol bolas)

Need to cut at least six more.  Anything I'm hesitating on is probably out, soo...Nicol Bolas, Spellbound Dragon.  I don't think I want to cut much that costs 4-5, cause you know, curve matters.  I think I want to cut one Niv Mizzet because the mana cost kinda sucks, and it would be unfortunate to have two in my hand.  Hmm...I dunno which is better in this deck.  Dracogenius is cheaper, though, so cut Niv-Mizzet the firemind.  Umm...I have three cards on lifegain; if I'm keeping the 5 drops, and running Dromoka because I own it, that means cutting Kokusho.  Siege Dragon...ehh...I have lots of ways to clear small creatures, and 2 damage won't always do things.  Knollspine Dragon...you know, this is a little bit winmore, even by EDH standards; if I have dragons in play and attacking and not being blocked, I can refill my hand, yes.  But then there'll be times when I can't attack, and just want to play a dude.  OK, this reduces us to...

Balefire Dragon -- yes (much stronger Mordant Dragon)
Furnace Dragon -- yes (mass artifact exiling)
Dragonlord Ojutai -- yes (card draw)
Icefall Regent -- yes (removal; can shut down certain problem commanders)
Sunscorch Regent -- yes (it is "just big" but in a way that's very good in EDH, and lifegain will probably be relevant)
Thundermaw Hellkite -- yes (it's not much AoE, but it's free, and it's a tap, and it's haste)
Dragonlord Dromoka -- yes (I own it; lifegain may be relevant)
Dragonlord Silumgar -- yes (removal)
Hellkite Tyrant -- yes (steal all the artifacts)
Intet, the Dreamer -- yes (the ability costs mana, but it nulls the mana of the card, so it's a win.  And card draw)
Keiga, the Tide Star -- yes (removal)
Malfegor -- yes, I think (removal, and just hits a different vector than the damage based removal that most dragons do)
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius -- yes (card draw)
Savage Ventmaw -- yes (a bit unorthodox, but yes, 6 mana is cool)
Scourge of the Throne -- yes (completely free extra attack?  ok)
Steel Hellkite -- yes (costs mana, but it kills literally anything if you're using it)
Teneb, the Harvester -- yes ("from a graveyard" you say?)
Deathbringer Regent -- yes (it's a wrath that will basically always be active)
Dragonlord Atarka -- yes
Tyrant's Familiar -- yes (note that it doesn't have to get through unblocked)

Mmm...I'm not feeling great about cutting Kokusho.  On the other hand, this is a casual EDH deck I don't plan to spend a ton of money on, and he costs money.  Could swap Thundermaw Hellkite (being another money card) but...naaah, the haste is super relevant with the triggers; getting through unblocked is super relevant with the triggers; whatever, this set of 20 is fine.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 29, 2015, 01:32:56 AM
As a quick side comment, not sure what WotC balancing was thinking when they printed Thunderbreak Regent.  I guess they figured it's the Dragons set so what the hell, but a 4/4 flyer for 4 in RED?!  With an upside?  Way better than Furnace Whelp / Dragon Whelp & the like.

Been meaning to make on MTGO a Crucible of Fire (dragons get +3/+3) aggro deck that just ran cheap Changelings (5/5 Woodland + Avian Changelings & Taurean Maulers!!1!) but dang it that is so above the curve that the Regent should really go in even to a crazed Changeling aggro deck, despite actually being a Dragon.  Sigh.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 29, 2015, 06:49:42 AM
Given the current state of creatures, it's good, but it's not -that- good.  It is noteworthy for being red, yes.  Buuuut like...

Butcher of the Horde (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386501) 5/4 flying for 4 in multicolour, with upsides.

Conundrum Sphinx (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=204982) 4/4 flying in blue, with...theoretically it's even, but you can build your deck to trigger off of it more often.

Horobi Death's Wail (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=78854) 4/4 flying for 4  in black from kamigawa that technically has a downside, but once again you can build your deck to better exploit it.

Indomitable Archangel (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=212248) 4/4 flying for 4 in white, with upside.

Tower Gargoyle (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=174924) 4/4 flying **uncommon** for 4.  Multicolour, granted.

Duskmantle Seer (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=366310) dark confidant draw effect for everybody!!1  And a 4/4 flying for 4.


I mean, it's a good card and got played in the pro tour.  But like...of the decks that could run it, mono-red did NOT run it, green ramp splashing red did NOT run it (either of them; there were two), and there's a red/green midrage dragon deck that ran 4.  But like...it wasn't even the most played dragon in the top 8 (I believe that would be Icefall Regent (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394598)).  Icefall Regent, by the way, is way better than it looks.  It's basically removal; they can kill it to end the removal effect yes.  But then they typically have to pay 4+ mana to kill it.  So...even though it's a 5 mana creature, it almost never gets badly tempoed by a removal spell.



Aaanyhow, I hope you're putting Draconic Roar (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394539) into your changeling deck.  I mean, it's not something I'd put into an EDH deck, but that card is rlly good 요!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 29, 2015, 08:05:12 AM
Alright, some cleanup...

-1 Kilnmouth Dragon (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=243477)
+1 Kaalia of the Vast (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=338444)

I'm shorter on 4 drops.  There are other cards that do what Kilnmouth does, with haste or ETB triggers.

So...I'm looking at

15 Dragon Tribal cards
5 Dragon token producing cards
20 other dragons

50 mana sources?

That leaves...4 card draw, 5 control, so like...

Card draw:
Mystic Remora
Phyrexian Arena
Dark Tutelage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=204979)
Underworld Connections

So for control, I feel like dragons do a lot of killing creatures and killing artifacts, so I want enchantments featured here.
Mortify (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=382313)
Descent of the Dragons (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394536)
Trygon Predator (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370476)
Hull Breach (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376367)
Back to Nature (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383187)
Ratchet Bomb (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370623)

Out of these...cut Mortify I guess?  Only one that can't two-for-one.  That or back to nature.  Hmm...y'know back to nature has some potential issues, as I'm thinking of trying to run an enchantment as a commander (Chromanticore (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=378516)--it's not legendary, but the other options are mostly too dull or too good).  What about none of the above and Ray of Revelation (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=245288).  There's a few times this deck might discard, so...yeah.  So...I think that's a reasonable cap to non-mana cards.  Need to look at mana cards next.  In particular, cards like Vivid Grove (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376575) that I was overlooking before, but probably want to make space for.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 29, 2015, 04:23:22 PM
So...some more thinking about mana.

Untapping karoos is good because they tap for 2 mana.  I own Kiora's Follower (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=394381), but I think for mana fixing purposes I'd rather run stuff that's easier to cast, so...Voyaging Satyr (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=373518).  Even then, this is only sometimes 2 mana, sometimes 1 mana if I'm colour fixing.  Somberwald Sage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=275711) seems good with those dragons that have two of one colour in their casting cost.

So...anyway, for some reason the tri-lands from Alara are about $2, but the tri-lands from Tarkir are like 1/10 that, and Vivids are also cheap.

Swapping the vivids in for the Alara tri-lands we're still at 32 land.  Besides the 10 signets we definitely want...

Cultivate
Kodama's Reach
Sol Ring
Surveyor's Scope
Somberwald Sage

Hmm...is Amulet of Vigor actually good?  One thing I am worried about is the "if you play a karoo before you cast anything, then you will discard at end of turn" and Amulet does help with that being something that costs 1.  But another land would also help.  Eh, screw it, it sounds fun, I'll try it.

Amulet of Vigor

And I think just fill in the last two slots with Alara tri lands that hit red and green.

Savage Lands
Jungle Shrine
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 01, 2015, 07:07:08 AM
Whoops, none of the lists I had had Utvara Hellkite, so added that in, removed Sarkhan Vol (he's only really in for the ult, and that's a bad reason to include a planeswalker).

Also put in Distainful Stroke since I happened to find one while going through my cards, and that abstractly is a good EDH card.  (Took out Ray of Revelation).

Played a proxied version today; it performed ok, but ultimately lost to leviathan tribal.  Which answers one question I had been worried about (no: it probably won't be too strong a deck).  Which means I'm going to order the reasonably priced cards (some cards I'll wait till after rotation).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 03, 2015, 07:17:09 AM
Hearthstone:

Mech Rogue

I've been revisiting this recently, partially because I just opened an Iron Sensei (which is apparently one of the draws of the deck).

I'm actually finding Iron Sensei to be pretty high variance; sometimes it's awful.  A few cards are really pulling this deck together, though:

1. Dark Iron Skulker -- this is a pretty good top end.  Rogue can out-tempo all the other classes from turns 1-4ish, though free cards like backstab.  But then they run out of cards (while hopefully still having a board advantage).  Around turn 5 is when a lot of other decks are finishing emptying their hand.  If Dark Iron Skulker helps keep the board clear and maintain tempo for another round that's actually a pretty big deal.

2. The fact that the core mech cards includes cheap cards is a big deal, because it means I can trigger combo easier for stuff like SI7 agent and Defias Ringleader.  Spare parts help too.  Mechwarper turning 2 drops into 1 drops helps too.  I'm running the full 4 mech one drops.

It's a tempo board control deck, so I am running saps, deadly poison....

Rounding out the deck is Dr. Boom.  which is more just a nod to the fact that I sometimes run out of gas (and I lost to it once when playing against another tempo deck).


But yeah...the mech core of creatures = lots of tempo.  The rogue tempo spells = lots of tempo.  Dark Iron Skulker helps you hold on to tempo.  When it's easy to trigger combo that's pretty cool.  I don't own Eviscerates, which would probably make the deck a fair bit better, but it's already doing quite well.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 03, 2015, 09:56:04 PM
MtG:

So...I've been thinking a little bit more about the Dragon EDH deck, why it worked out and felt balanced....

Yes, the cards are on average stronger than other decks I've run.  But...no I'm not doing anything terribly exploitative with them.

Let me explain.

In Prossh, I could go

1. Primal Vigor (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376457)
2. Prossh (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=376461)
3. Hellion Eruption (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=271158)

And have 26 hellion tokens (4/4).

In Raksha, I could equip Raksha with...usually two pieces of equipment, and deal 22 unblockable commander damage (always with vigilance, sometimes with lifelink, so counterswings were not as good).

In Marath, I would combine pings, often multitarget pings with deathtouch to have creature kills.  Even with that, I didn't usually win unless I drew Cathar's Crusade (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=389459), another combo.



By comparison, the dragon deck is not a combo deck, it's a control deck, with most of the dragons drawing cards or removing threats.  Yeah, it has tribal synergy, but this is just synergy.

Side note, people seem cool with Chromanticore as a commander, which means there's a few creatures I could use to combo with it.

Cold-Eyed Selkie (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370505) I will probably run, because it's good enough on its own as a 3 mana card drawing engine.

Celaphid Constable (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=135261) is useless without a chromanticore bestow, and oppressive with it.  Probably not.

Needle Specter (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=153474) I would run Nicol Bolas first.

So...I think Cold-Eyed Selkie comes in.  (In exchange for either Phyrexian Arena if I decide I don't want to spend $10 on that card, or Dark Tutelage for being a card that killed me last time we played).

I think Amulet of Vigor comes out.  It's good for ramping into dragons one turn earlier; the deck is a control deck, though; it can wait a turn.  Sub in one more of some other category (thinking Back to Nature or Ray of Revelation).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 06, 2015, 08:58:18 AM
Magic The Gathering -- Three Card Blind

This is a really really interesting match that I'm not sure if I win with the deck I submitted, so much so that I spent a few hours figuring it out, as there's a lot of options on both sides.

http://kaitlyn-burnell.tumblr.com/post/118269021073/a-three-card-blind-match-for-the-ages
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 15, 2015, 06:51:02 AM
Magic the Gathering - Commander Dragon Deck

Ummmm....so I won my last four straight games with this deck.  I don't want to turn this into an arms race, so I asked them what I should tone down about the deck.  The answer I got back?  Chromanticore (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=378516) (the commander).

Turns out Chromanticore is really good, especially when on a dragon that deals some kind of extra damage (most of them).

The rest of the 5 colour commanders have approximately zero synergy with me.  I'm going to try Sliver Hivelord (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=383385).  Reasoning being: the one thing dragons have proven really bad at is blocking.  Like...dragons are a lot of 4/4 and 5/5s, usually with some kind of utility that makes me not want to lose them.  EDH is all 6/6 and 7/7.  I basically never want to block with dragons (and nearly always want to attack, because attacking triggers cool stuff).  Sliver Hivelord can block, which is nice; it fills a niche that the deck lacks.

(Of course, with Chromanticore bestowing something the deck was fantastic at blocking, but that's a different story).

Without the Chromanticore lifegain I'm going to remove Dark Tutelage (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=204979).  I mean, the card did lead me to one loss even with Chromanticore due to self damage, and inflicting that much self damage doesn't make sense when my commander doesn't lifegain.

Replace with Temur Ascendancy (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=386692).  I really like the card, it has very little money cost, and it fits the deck fantastically since most of the deck is 4+ power creatures.

I had been thinking about Cold-eyed selkie (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370505), but that was when I had Chromanticore; it doesn't really combo with anything now.

I will think about swapping Back to Nature back to Ray of Revelation.  Without Dark Tutelage it's going to be rare that I want to kill my own enchantment.  Back to Nature does have a ton of power when it kills multiple enchantments though, and I only have like...five enchantments in my own deck?

I think I'm going to take out Patriarch's Bidding (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=26747).  It's the only 3+ mana card in the deck that breaks my rule of "not having Dragon" on the card.  Swap for Kokusho (http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=370502)--when there's no lifegain on my Commander, suddenly I care about this card.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 15, 2015, 05:12:58 PM
Hearthstone:

So I started thinking about how goood a creature needs to be to get played at each mana cost.  Like...if you add up its power and toughness, what stats does it need to be actually played in current Standard decks.

Some notes:

Adding is great and all, but 1 power is very bad, 0 power is incredibly bad, and 1 health is...pretty sketchy due to the pings.

0 mana: ?

It's pretty hard to swing this without 0-1 power, so no matter what, a 0 mana card will be sketchy.  Wisp gets played occasionally thanks to hobgoblin.

1 mana: 4 total stats.

I think 1 mana for a vanilla 2/2 is probably fair, and would probably get played?  It's hard to say because none exists; there's 1 mana for a 2/3 with a downside.  There's multiple 1 mana for a 3/2 with a downside.  1 mana for a 2/2 with no upside or downside is probably ok?

2 mana: 6 total stats.

2 mana is filled with 5 total stats creatures: 2/3s and 3/2s with strong abilities.  An abilityless 3/3 would be pretty good, because it would trade profitably with 2/3s.  An abilityless 2/4 would be pretty good because it would trade with 3/2s.  An abilityless 4/2...welldirewolf alpha was orininally played because it was "effectively 4/2".

3 mana: 8 total stats

So...this is an interesting slot, where people do play Spider Tank (3/4 mech for 3), but only in heavy mech decks.  Outside of that...there's a non-mech that is a 4/4 for 3 with a spare part IF you've got mechs.  There's a non-dragon that's a 3/5 for 4 IF you've got dragons.  These are both considered reasonable (although not auto-include) in mech/dragon decks.  And I'm positive that a 5/3 for 3 would be fine, probably not even particularly exciting.

4 mana: 10 total stats

This is where it gets interesting.  The one 4 mana card that people are willing to run without any particular synergy is Piloted Shredder.  But what effective stats does piloted shredder have?  Obviously 4/3 on the outside, and then the average minion that pops out has 1.88 attack and 2.45 health.  Obviously many of those have abilities, so I'm going to round this up to 2/3.  So......do we just add 4/3 to 2/3 and get 6/6?  No, not exactly, because creatures that are small for the turn when they show up (the 2/3) get inefficient trades.  For example: piloted shredder vs a 5/5 would over two turns trade evenly.  6/6 vs a 5/5 would be a profitable trade for the 6/6.  Realistically, Piloted shredder feels like a 4/6 or so--it has 4 power, and it does take about 6 total damage to kill it.  And a 4/6 does trade evenly with a 5/5.

5 mana: 13 total stats

This is where things start getting hard.  almost all of the 5 mana cards that people actually play have a bunch of abilities and low stats.  Sludge Belcher is a 3/5 with three abilities.  Azure Drake is a 4/4 with two abilities.  Antique Healbot is a 3/3 with one large scale ability.  Loatheb is a 5/5 with a pretty big ability.  Fel Reaver is an occasionally played 8/8 with a negative ability.  The only one I can think of that is mostly stats is Blackwing corruptor: 5/4, if you're holding a dragon battlecry deal 3 damage.  This is kind-of like a 5/4 that summons a 3/3...although more like a 3/1 with charge (which is better than a 3/3...although probably not as good as a 3/4).  Can we just add these together?  Total stats 8/7 for...15?  Mmm...probably not.  For an extreme case, blackwing corruptor trades evenly with a 4/6, whereas an 8/7 would not.  It does trade well with a Piloted Shredder, though--survives as a 5/2.  Realistically, the stats you would need to do this normally are 5/8.  Let's go with that, then--13 total?

6 mana: 15 total stats

Well...so if "deal 3 damage battlecry" is +4 stats, then Fire Elemental is on that shit with 15 total stats.  But the better stat comparison is Piloted Sky Golem.  (Or Cairne, who is effectively a 4/10 for 14 total, but nobody plays him anymore).  Using the same logic as piloted shredder, Sky Golem is kind-of like a 6/8 or 6/9 (14-15 total).

7 mana: 19 total stats

Alright, so doctor boom...the body is 14.  Add...one for the body of each boom bot, and 2 for the deathrattle?  20 total.  Rend Blackhand is an 8/4 (body is 12), kills something, probably a Loatheb or Thaussian--if we accept the fire elemental battlecry being like 4 stats, then killing a 5 health thing is like 6-7 stats, putting Rend at 18-19.

8 mana: 23 total stats

Umm...well I guess there's Sneed's Old Shredder.  This gets a bit messy compared to previous shredders, however, because we were always assuming that the body that popped out would be obsolete by the time it hits the field.  Usually not the case with Sneeds, which pops out plenty of 8/8s.  So I guess take that as the main body, and add the 7 health on Sneeds for effective 8/15.  23 total stats?  ish?

9-10 mana

I got nothing; there's no real easy comparisons here.


Anyway, the interesting thing here is how it's a pretty smooth curve and spikes up.  Realistically 6 mana should probably be listed higher (Fire Elemental's battlecry is a lot better than Blackwing Corruptor's).  But if we adjust for that then it starts looking pretty smooth, going...

4, 6, 8, 10, 13, 16, 19, 23

The interesting spike here is that at some point it stops being +2, and starts being +3.  The value of tempo forces these numbers higher.  Dr Boom is still maybe a bit too good for its cost, but only barely--boom still needs most of those stats to be a viable 7 drop.



The other thing that's interesting is what common abilities change these values:

Creature type -- is often worth one stat when it's a relevant creature type (mostly mech, although in the past some really vanilla beasts showed up in dominant hunter decks, like River Crocolisk)

Taunt -- is worth a loooooot.  Ancient of War is 15 total stats plus taunt, and considered a high quality 7 drop.  3/5 is worth it at 3 mana, and worth it at 4 mana with taunt  Sludge belcher looks a lot like shredder if you remove taunt.  I think "add a full mana for taunt" is actually probably pretty accurate--provided the creature can soak up a lot of damage.

Windfury -- is worth surprisingly little (unless it has charge, then it's insane).  Like...maybe 1 stat, and probably not even that.  Look at whirling Zap-o-matic.  People don't run it unless they're doing a very specific deck.

Divine Shield -- is worth a lot.  Like...probably a full mana, if not slightly more (annoy-o-tron is much better than its 1 mana equivalent).

Charge -- Worth...closer to 2 mana, actually.  See: druid of the Claw as a charging 4/4.  See charging 3/1 being worth playing for 3 (when a 3/1 without charge would be like...1 mana ish).  This also still reveals King Crush as bad--minus two mana for him is 7 mana...and 16 total stats is still bad at 7 mana.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 21, 2015, 04:44:58 AM
Cookie Clicker

A few notes....

So for a while I had trouble keeping buildings at the right cost ratio, mentally recalculating each time.  That said, each building grows by 15% for each time they are purchased, so actually it's pretty simple.  Once you get them in-sync it becomes always roughly correct to just buy one of each building.  This will keep them roughly in-sync.

How do upgrades mix into all of this?  Most upgrades double, which doubles the cost-efficiency, so when you buy a doubling upgrade, buy 5 of that building.  Why 5?  because 1.5^5 = 2.011.

To get the ratios right at the start, fortunately there's a wiki (http://cookieclicker.wikia.com/wiki/Buildings) with relative building efficiencies, ex:

Cursor production per megacookie: 6,667
Grandma production per megacookie: 5,000
Farm production per megacookie: 8,000
Factory production per megacookie: 3,333
Mine production per megacookie: 4,000

So like...a typical earlygame breakdown might look like...

Cursor: 5
Grandma: 3
Farm: 7
Factory: 1
Mine: 2

And it's cost-efficient to add 1 to each of these (and then mix in the higher tech buildings when those become more cost-efficient than buying an existing building).

Heavenly Chips, obviously these are the lategame.  But they have an interesting lack of stacking effect.  There's lots of upgrades (cookie types) that say "cookie production multiplier +X%".  These are additive, not multiplicative, and Heavenly Chips add to the same value.  This does mean these upgrades become pretty trash when resetting with a lot of heavenly chips.  It also makes me dubious of guides that encourage people to prestige super early.  Like...prestiging with 50 heavenly chips adds +100%, which is nice, but that just means you went from probably x2.35 to x3.35.

(Side observation--in the mid-late game, the actually important upgrades are like...Kittens and Prism x2 upgrades, as these actually double your output.  Everything else is kind-of minor).

Seasons:

Christmas is the obvious starting season once you have the season switcher.  Doesn't require the grandmapocalypse to get unlocks.  Has the "Santa's Bottomless Bag", which makes all the other seasons less painful.  The important stuff isn't based off of random drops.  But like...actually, most of the upgrades are pretty trashy.  Cookie production multipliers (not too relevant given that you need 5,000 heavenly chips for the season switcher, so you have at least +10,000% that you're adding onto).

Cost reductions on buildings...ok, let's talk about these.  a 1% cost reduction on buildings...what does this do?  Well...what would a 15% cost reduction do?  Given that it's typical to have about 100+ so prisms, this would get you about 1 more prism, so...a 1% production increase.  So...that was a 15% cost reduction.  A 1% cost reduction gets you like...a 0.1% increase.  Upgrade cost reduction...there's not even a clear measure here; gets you some key upgrades a bit earlier, so that's nice.

Milk being 5% more powerful...ok, that's probably a big deal.  That's the other big deal for Christmas (besides the Santa bag, and just Reindeer being a pure upside).

Easter, though, is the real deal.  Easter has a bunch of eggs that say "global production multiplier +1%"--this is apparently different from "production multiplier +1%", and actually stacks.  Then easter has "Wrinklers produce 5% more cookies", which is basically a 5% increase.  And Chocolate Egg which just adds about 5% to your produced this game right before you presige.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 26, 2015, 05:20:44 PM
Cookie Clicker

So...something was bugging me about my building calculation--specifically cursors.  Well...not cursors in particular, but the fact that buying any buliding that is not cursors buffs cursors.

So...total production from cursors is like...

C*N*1,532.6 + 0.8

Where C is number of cursors, N is non-cursors.  Or actually a smaller multiplier than 1,532 for normal plebs like me, but the concept remains the same.  So ok, can work with this.  I'm in a fairly typical endgame right now, about 2,000 total buildings, 250 cursors (1750 non-cursors).  This means that when I buy a cursor, my CPS from cursors goes up by

1750*whatever

And when I buy a non-cursor, my CPS goes up by

250*whatever

This means, in particular, that all of the cheap buildings should be bought up to the point that they cost about 1/7 what the next cursor purchace costs.  In theory this would cause some weird math with buildings that are very close to that line beforehand.  In practice it seemed to mostly come up for portals--all the other low buildings have pretty negligible production multipliers compared to 1/7th of a cursor.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 10, 2015, 09:53:20 PM
So...this is a pretty cool GDC talk from one of the people who worked on League of Legends.  (Haven't played either LoL or WoW, so I can't really speak to how accurate these examples are, but it sounds like good design lessons):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DePjQJaZpqg

Alright, enough with the interesting stuff, let's talk about some complete trash...

Cookie Clicker

Let's talk about Wrath cookies vs Golden cookies.

For a 1 hour period, with Wrath you get Wrinklers, so just on top of everything that's times 6.275.  So just idling that whole time you get

18990 seconds worth of extra production.

The wrath cookies...

Ruin (28% of the time) Lose 10 minutes of production

-600 seconds of production

Lucky (28% of the time) Gain 20 minutes of production

+1200 seconds of production

Clot (28% of the time) Half production for 132 seconds (affects Wrinklers)

-414 seconds of production

Elder Frenzy (6%) production x666 for 12 seconds (affects Wrinlkers)

+50074 seconds of production

Click Frenzy (2%) Makes clicks do x777 for 26 seconds (with alt+shift+numlock you can click about 10x per second using the numpad; I'm not quite sure how the cursors stack up, but the final result seems to be about 9.6% of CPS per click.  I'll just round this to 10% since I'm guesstimating how many times you can click in a second).

+20202 seconds of production

Cookie chain (6%) Does...stuff.  This is a mess because it's quantized.  Reward is somewhere between 3 hours of production, and 3/10 hours of production.  Except when it fails, which it can from either dexterity failure, or just 1% failure chance coded into the game.

+1080-10800 seconds of production...barring a failure, in which case it does basically nothing.


Overall: The three most common modes basically cancel each other out, and it's mostly about the Elder Frenzy.

Also worth noting, the rare case of a Reindeer during an Elder Frenzy is 79920, but this is pretty rare due to the short duration of Elder Frenzy, and for the most part Wrath cookies synergize porly with reindeer.

Over the period of an hour, you'll get about 30 Wrath cookies, so about 1.5 Elder Frenzies, 1.5 Cookie Chains, 0.2 click frenzies

Net average gain from an hour of active paying attention:

~101,412

So...an overall x6 or so on just ignoring the damn thing and letting it idle for the full hour.

Golden Cookies

So ok, buy an elder pledge, get some golden cookies, what's this look like?

Lucky (48%) 20 minutes of production.

+1200
+8400 with Frenzy (Active about 50% of the time)

Frenzy (48%) Production x7 for 154 seconds

+924

Click Frenzy (3.3%) (Makes clicks do x777 for 26 seconds--see above for more details)

+20202 seconds of production
+141414 seconds with Frenzy (active about 50% of the time)

Cookie Chain (1%) (it's a mess, described above)

+1080-10800 seconds of production...barring a failure, in which case it does basically nothing.
(x7 with Frenzy, theoretically, but there's so many failure cases like the Frenzy ending before the cookie chain does)

So...in an hour you'll get about 30 of these.

You'll get a minimum of 1k from all of them, so that's 30k.  You'll get about 8 boosted Luckys, so that's another 58k or so.  And then there's probably a Click Frenzy in there, getting...well...on average 80k

So...168k bonus overall.  This is slightly better than the Wrath cookies which were at 120k


Hybrid

So Hybrid is an interesting idea where you stop after One Mind and before Communal Brainsweep.  It means taking a hit on Grandma production.  (In my current game, base Grandma Cps is at 5.8.  Could be at 20.8).  This is roughly a 5% overall production multiplier penalty.  (Grandmas being the third most important building after Prisms and Antimater Condensers)

There's also various intangible problems with Wrinklers spawning at 1/3 the rate (clearing Easter is slower, Wrinklers take longer to spawn which is a penalty any time you need to access the contents).  But it gives access to Lucky Cookies while there are wrinklers.

It also allows Frenzy to chain into Wrath cookies which...doesn't do much because Frenzy doesn't chain with Elder Frenzy.

So...the big difference is that every Frenzy also benefits from wrinklers.  Which means every Frenzy gets an extra 5,686 cookies

So...overall it's

Frenzy (31%)
+6,610

Lucky (41%)

+1200
+8400 with Frenzy (Active about 1/3 of the time)

Ruin (10% of the time) Lose 10 minutes of production

-600 seconds of production
-4200 with Frenzy (active about 1/3 of the time)

Clot (10% of the time) Half production for 132 seconds

-414 seconds of production

Click Frenzy (2.9%) (Makes clicks do x777 for 26 seconds--see above for more details)

+20202 seconds of production
+141414 seconds with Frenzy (active about 1/3 of the time)

Elder Frenzy (2%) production x666 for 12 seconds (affects Wrinlkers)

+50074 seconds of production

Cookie Chain (2.5%) (it's a mess, described above)

+1080-10800 seconds of production...barring a failure, in which case it does basically nothing.

Ok I don't have a mental shortcut for all of these...just running these through a spreadsheet I get that an average hybrid cookie is worth about 6229.  30 of them over the course of an hour are worth 186,892.  And of course, just having Wrinklers is worth 19k per hour, so that pushes this a little over 200k.

Is it worth it?  Well...so the 5% reduction reduces this lead from 200k to more like 190k.  Still good.  But if I have maybe one hour when I can actively click, because I'm writing a long analytical forum post...followed by 23 hours when I can't click...well...519,570 from the other 23 hours, where 5% of that is 25k.  Which is to say...actually yes, still worth it, barely.

What about the common case of I'm mostly doing something else (playing an online PC game like Starcraft or Heroes of the Storm) and just tab during load times?  So...like maybe 2-4 cookie clicks per hour.  For starters, Elder Pledge not even really a consideration here, so it's Wrath Cookies vs Hybrid Cookies

So...in an hour there's the 22590 from idling with Wrinklers, and then +6229*2 = 35048.  By comparison, Wrath cookies are worth about 4000, so +4000*2 = 30590.  So a good 15-20% improvement, outweighs the 5% loss.

So...once the setup is done it's probably better in most situations?  The slower wrinkler respawn rate is pretty painful, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 05:39:14 AM
Fuck it, let's do some FFT.

So a few years back I posted an ordering of class quality (for vanilla, not LFT), assuming you played optimally, but also assuming you didn't mess around and grind for hours and become overleveled.  LFT's iterative balancing has shown that I was wrong about my assumptions.  Like...pretty much every single Move+X ability overperformed my initial estimates and needed to get a JP nerf in LFT (or get it's competitor buffed).  Time to do a revised list.  I'm also going to be counting down from the top, because I'm sort of writing this as I go.

1. Summoner

Let's be clear, it's in between this and Wizard.  A few quick notes: Summoner SCC is easier than Wizard SCC.  Playing a game without Summoner compared to playing a game without Wizard...The no-Wizard game would have a noticeable power drop for a small section of chapter 1, and a noticeable power drop for the optimized Mathskill setup (not that said setup needs a whole lot of help) but have more power in most of the midgame.

Bottom line, Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit are crazy, crazy good abilities.  Their MP efficiency is really good.  Their CT is crazy.  Their JP is 200.  They ignore evade.  Their AoE is good.  They are probably what you will use as your secondary for a large segment of the game.

2. Wizard

You know, Black Magic is considered """"Bad"""" but if you're playing optimally, it's probably going to be your third most-used skillset; maaaybe 4th.  Obviously Summon Magic and Math Skill are better, but before that time...It rolls in Chapter 1 before you get Summon.  Even after you get Summon you'll often use Black Magic secondary so that you have things to do after spending your Summon MP.  You might also start grinding to Mathskill or something like that before skipping into Summon, and then you'll also probably be using Black Magic.  Item has a case for taking that 3rd place spot, but there is definitely a good argument for Black Magic.

And Black Magic is the weakest part of the Wizard package.  The stats are ridiculous, the equipment is very good--basically Wizard represents roughly a 25% damage boost on whatever move you were planning on using.  Magic Attack Up is also ridiculous, and represents a 33% bonus on whatever move you were planning on using.  (Admittedly, all Support slots need to compete with the omnipresent Gained JP Up).  The common saying went that Bolt 1 on the Wizard SCC dealt about as much damage as Ramuh on the Summoner SCC.  14*4/3 = 18.66.  18.66*1.25 = 23.3.  Ramuh was still better, of course, because it ignored evade, which was often a big deal later on, and had wider AoE but still. 

The amount of power Wizard adds to basically any strategy is pretty ridiculous.

3. Calculator

CT 5 Holy only costs about 1550 JP, and it invalidates pretty much everything else at that point.  Are there arguments that Calculator should be higher than this?  Oh definitely.  But...look, Mathskill is definitely better than say, Wizards with Magic Attack Up, Summon Magic, and Autopotion, but said setup is already good enough to smash pretty much the entire game, and there is a genuine cost to going calculator; you're gonna suck for a while.  And like...yeah, CT5 Holy is amazing, but actually if you're doing CT5Holy without Wizard MA or Magic Attack Up, suddenly the damage is similar to Ramuh with wizard MA and Magic Attack Up.  (Still better, of course, thanks to infinite range, instant, no MP cost, absorption on your party, etc).  Point is, dropping either Summoner or Wizard represents a lot of lost earlygame and midgame power.  Dropping Calc represents quite a bit of lost endgame power, but Wizard+Summoner can still put together a monstrocity with similar evasion-ignoring large AoE damage.

Math Skill, granted, is one of the most nerfed skills in LFT (damage gets cut by 1/4 for instance--a lot of the utility is still there), but that's because we want variety in endgame setups and a lot of classes to be balanced with each other in the late game.  Vanilla FFT makes no attempt at such balance, though.  It's also noteworthy that Calculator as a class is heavily buffed in LFT (innate Teleport 2 and Non-Charge) so that gaining Mathskill JP isn't painful the way it is in vanilla.

4. ?

OK, OK let's think about this.

The rest of the big 7 are Chemist, Ninja, Time Mage, Squire.

Squire's Gained JP Up breaks the game to the point that we actually just gave it to every class innately.  (And obviously this isn't strictly a balance issue--even if we reduced the bonus to, say, 10% more JP instead of 50%, people would still use that in the majority of battles, because not using it makes you feel penalized.  Move+1 also has a huge gold star.  We moved it to Knight, because you get Squire JP for free from guests, which approximately doubles its cost.  And then we gave it competiton with Ignore Height at equal cost.  And then they both got bumped to 300 JP.  And then Move+1 got bumped to 400 JP because it was still disproportionately getting chosen over Ignore Height.  And Move+1 is the """""bad""""" ability from Squire when compared to Gained JP Up.

Chemist...Item is broken, in that Item with 90 JP (which you have automatically) is better than roughly half of complete mastered skillsets.  I remember my first time through the game being advised (by Excal) to make Ramza a Monk, and when I was done with that being advised (by Elfboy) to make Ramza a Samurai and...using Item over a basically mastered Punch Art.  The ability to stop death timers with 100% reliability is just important.  Phoenix Down's JP cost was increased by almost 300%, and several other abilities were added to compete with it (Ramza's Wish now revives.  Raise in Priest was almost cut in half for JP cost).  Auto Potion is also really good, as you can see from the fact that it was nerfed from 400 JP to 1000 JP.

Ninjas are Mushrooms (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX1dPTAQ5_U)

Time Mage...you know, honestly, Time Mages dropped a fair bit in my estimation of them.  Short Charge literally got buffed.  Teleport initially was jacked way up in price, but got buffed back to the point where it's only double its initial cost (smaller price increase than Move+1, only slightly larger price increase than Move+2, except ).  Haste is theoretically amazing, but spellcasters often don't want it because it puts them ahead of opponents in timing, and Calculators often don't want it because it messes up their CT shenanigans.  Meteor got buffed (not really a surprise, but it's certainly a not bad endgame setup when combined with Short Charge).

Hmm...will have to think about this (although I think Time Mage is probably the worst of these).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 03:23:51 PM
4. continued...

So...it's not Time Mage.  I don't think it's Ninja.  Ninja is an interesting alternate setup that actually uses physical attacks instead of spells (le gasp!  In vanilla FFT?)  But like...it's not essential; you can decide to never unlock Ninja on any of your characters and still break the game just as quickly and get the most powerful setups.

Let's talk about Squire vs Chemist.

Chemist is the bigger power spike initially, as literally every class uses item no matter what at first.

Then Gained JP Up takes over, and Summon generally supplants item as the secondary of choice.  There's a short window where Squire is quite a bit better due to getting Summon earlier, but then the two setups are similarly powerful for a while, cause you only need 200 JP in Summon to be similarly powerful.  So there's approximately a tie for a while, until the Squire setup picks up a big power spike (like a Teleport or Math Skill or something).  So...the Squire setup will be better for a while until eventually Math Skill kicks in for both parties, at which point yes, Math Skill with Auto Potion is slightly more powerful than Math Skill with item.

So...I feel like a game that doesn't use anything from Squire will be lower power at a larger number of points in the game than a game that doesn't use anything from Chemist.  Which means...

4. Squire

And by extension

5. Chemist

The last class with massive nerfs.  The easiest SCC...

6. Ninja

A genuinely competitive setup that takes...more training than a Summoner, but less than Math Skill.  Yeah, sure, sounds reasonable enough.  Notably, though, without Item, WTF do you use as your secondary?  Notably if you're given a choice between dropping Ninja or dropping Squire...you have Math Skill in...1550 JP, compared to...Umm...let's see here...ok, first let's make sure I remember how the 1550 was calculated.  Two 550 unlock requirements, and two 350 unlock requirements and a 200 unlock requirement, but you start with an average of 150 in each class...but you tend to overshoot requirements a little so let's pretend you start with 100 in each.  So...100+450x2+250x2+350 = 1850.  Ah, well, I was probably starting the jobs off with 150 before, but let's roll with this method.  Ok, so 1850 to get CT and 5 from Math Skill; 1900 to get Holy as well.  Ninja...100+250x2+450+100x2 = 1250.  Now, would I rather play without Ninja, or rather play without Squire...?  1250 without Gained JP Up is more like 1875, so...yeah, gimme that Squire.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 12, 2015, 03:50:13 PM
Is this list still going to be based on assuming the classes already ranked higher are "banned", or is it just attempting to show each class's contributions to a hypothetical strong team?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 04:44:50 PM
7. ?

OK, so now it's a question of whether Time Mage is even 7th.  Like...don't get me wrong, second easiest SCC, they have a lot of good abilities, and Teleport is genuinely OP (proof: even though we buffed it back to some degree, it's still a 2x JP nerf, and part of the reason we buffed it back was we knew it was powerful, but it's also fun to use and we wanted people using it).

Well...what's the competition?

Thief brings Move+2 mostly, and I guess Secret Hunt.  It's noteworthy that we buffed Secret Hunt a lot to make it less of a painful grind.  But yeah, whatever, Teleport > Move+2.

Priest brings the best Mathskill spells; all of them.  Not just Holy, having done a spellcalc SCC run, Raise is very good (and as shown by LFT, revival skills on Mathskill are so powerful that not just Raise but also Reraise got made into a non Mathskillable move.  Multitarget revival is crazy powerful in any form). 

Outside of Mathskill...Holy's not bad--the best spell for assassination missions that aren't zodiac bosses, and perfectly fine for zodiac bosses as well.  "But you could use Demi from Time Magic for zodiacs..." yeah, you...could, if you don't mind the miss percentage; Holy will almost always deal more than 1/4 of their health, so it's probably better if you happen to have it.

Not that I want to put too much weight onto Mathskill for classes outside of Mathskill necessarily, but it does pull me towards certain spells and abilities; I'm more likely to have Holy trained than if it was non-mathskillable.

OK, so let's say you already have the first six classes, and you're looking to add a 7th that will get you the most power.  (And note that my ruling is that Mathskill without priest would have some way to access Holy still, you just wouldn't be able to cast it from White Magic).  Hmm...neither feel amazing, it's nice to have Holy pre-mathskill I guess, but not essential since most bosses get murdered by Summons just the same.  Teleport is cool I guess.

Let's say the top 6 classes are banned, and you're looking to ban a 7th...well this gets kind-of weird, because now Samurai is suddenly pretty cool...and desperately wants Teleport.  Also, Time Magic with Short Charge Meteor becomes arguably the most powerful thing you can do (and sure, Draw Out secondary, and probably Blade Grasp).

Both of these feel like they're leaning towards time mage.

7. Time Mage

Alright, so

8. ?

So I've been looking at this two different ways--one is "pick the 7 classes you will use, and now pick one more", the other is "ban the big 7 classes".  The banning method makes Samurai actually look pretty cool right now.  The picking method--meh, they take about as much setup as Mathskill for less output.  Then again, don't think too hard about the banning stuff, cause if Chemist was banned, everyone would flock to Raise on Priest, and LOL Raise.  (In LFT we trippled its competition's JP in Phoenix Down, and cut its JP in half down to 100.  Phoenix Down is still used more pretty sure).

Alright, let's look at it this way: who's left in LFT that got big Nerfs?  Priest Holy went from 600 JP to 800 JP, and a small mana increase.  Thief Move+2 went from 600 JP to 900 JP.  (And actually, might have even been higher than 900 at some point, but we got feedback that people had more fun when they had lots of movement).  That said, the 900 JP is less painful to grind because Thief has innate Two Swords in LFT, whereas Thief in vanilla was trash.

8. Priest

And I think that means that

9. Thief

I have a lot of respect for Oracle, but basically nothing in Oracle got nerfed (I think maybe a couple of statuses became non-mathskillable, but Pray Faith is still Mathskillable, and in Vanilla that was the most mathskilled Oracle spell; probably in LFT too).  I believe last time I had Mediator and Thief near each other for Invite+poaching shenanigans (specifically inviting a Uribo in Chapter 2).  And probably Mediator higher because you just need to enter that battle with Talk Skill, and worry about Poaching later if you happen to get the 33% chance of a Uribo.  And you know, that actually did get nerfed (the best you can get from the Uribo line now is Setiemson, not Chantage, and BTW Chantage was nerfed to not have always:Regen).  Everything else about poaching got buffed, though.  But let's be clear, the invite+poach thing comes up in 33% of games, assuming you even bother to bring a Mediator to that fight.  Move+2 is always good, and part of a very relevant setup.

Quote
Is this list still going to be based on assuming the classes already ranked higher are "banned", or is it just attempting to show each class's contributions to a hypothetical strong team?

I think I'll look at it from both angles a little bit, but as mentioned the "banned" thing gets messy so I'll take it with a grain of salt.  Cause yeah, like...if all three of Priest and Chemist and Calculator are banned, suddenly Monk becomes pretty important for Revive, and Revive is trash and not actually what anyone cares about from Monk.  (It's a nice-to-have extra on a Mastered Monk).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 12, 2015, 05:25:42 PM
I think you're overthinking the nerf to Move+2. The good movement abilities got increased JP costs across the board, and the reason for this isn't so much that they were too good but because Laggy wanted you to consider other movement abilities besides just "buff your move" (that is, Move+X and Teleport). The best evidence of this is that the JP cost of Move+3 was actually increased, and nobody would consider that ability to be too good in vanilla (it has virtually zero non-aftergame use as far as I'm concerned).

Flipside, Thief has loads of weaknesses which LFT addressed in a big way, by literally doubling its damage output (sometimes even more; yeah I know they took a PA hit, but knives improved substantially) and giving them Quick Attack to improve the value of Steal as a secondary. Arguably no class got a bigger buff than Thief did. That speaks to them being a pretty bad class in vanilla, which they are. One of the tougher SCCs (in particular: one of the very few in which level-grinding is strongly suggested), doesn't have a good chapter 1 like knight, one of the single most unpleasant jobs to be in (low PA, low MA, bad weapons) with Move+2 about the only useful thing about the job outside some weird item acquisition utility. I've written in this space before that they deserve little credit for Chantage poaching even in a metagame which is restricted to "bad" jobs, let alone normally where you shouldn't care at all.

There is no way they are better than Monk, Geomancer, or Lancer as far as physical jobs go (Thief vs. Knight or Archer is more interesting, although intuitively I still am not favouring Thief). Nor Oracle of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 05:54:43 PM
Ok, so I'm searching through to see what else is actually left that got nerfed in LFT.

There's Attack Up in Geomancer which is now 500 JP.

There's Oracle's...MP...multiplier?  Down to 90 from 110.  (While other mages like Time Mage and Summoner got MP buffed).

There's Bard and Dancer which have Move+3 nerfed to 1500 JP (well...I guess just Bard since Dancer didn't have Move+3) from 1000 JP.  But this is a bit of a red herring, because Bards don't suck now, and also have much more lenient unlock requirements.

And then there's Invitation...which had its JP doubled, its hit rate nerfed, and its most powerful use case (early Chantages) nerfed.

10. Mediator

And yeah, they get the guns + robes thing too, which I suppose is worth mentioning for Elemental guns.

11. ?

So...the remaining classes with nerfs are pretty mild (500 JP Attack Up is counteracted by the fact that Geomancer stats are higher, and Elemental all costs 100, and Geomancer is easier to unlock--several important buffs).  Oralce had an MP nerf.  Samurai had an HP and an MP and a PA and a speed nerf, but also gained innate Two Hands and Concentrate (and a buff to their most important stat MA) oh wait, hold on: Draw Out.

Kikuichimoji in LFT: 6 range, MA*12
Kikuichimoji in FFT: 8 range, MA*16

Like...everything else about Draw Out is pretty similar overall; Koutetsu is MA*11 instead of MA*12, but adds slow, for instance--that's a fair trade probably.  But yeah, Kikuichimoji is a big nerf.  I'm also fairly sure this exists so that Draw Out as a whole actually has weaknesses, instead of being "this monster close range skillset, that is also able to hit from range 8."

11. Samurai

Quote
I think you're overthinking the nerf to Move+2. The good movement abilities got increased JP costs across the board, and the reason for this isn't so much that they were too good but because Laggy wanted you to consider other movement abilities besides just "buff your move" (that is, Move+X and Teleport). The best evidence of this is that the JP cost of Move+3 was actually increased, and nobody would consider that ability to be too good in vanilla (it has virtually zero non-aftergame use as far as I'm concerned).

Flipside, Thief has loads of weaknesses which LFT addressed in a big way, by literally doubling its damage output (sometimes even more; yeah I know they took a PA hit, but knives improved substantially) and giving them Quick Attack to improve the value of Steal as a secondary. Arguably no class got a bigger buff than Thief did. That speaks to them being a pretty bad class in vanilla, which they are. One of the tougher SCCs (in particular: one of the very few in which level-grinding is strongly suggested), doesn't have a good chapter 1 like knight, one of the single most unpleasant jobs to be in (low PA, low MA, bad weapons) with Move+2 about the only useful thing about the job outside some weird item acquisition utility. I've written in this space before that they deserve little credit for Chantage poaching even in a metagame which is restricted to "bad" jobs, let alone normally where you shouldn't care at all.

There is no way they are better than Monk, Geomancer, or Lancer as far as physical jobs go (Thief vs. Knight or Archer is more interesting, although intuitively I still am not favouring Thief). Nor Oracle of course.

To be fair, this isn't an SCC comparison.  I have Wizard like...5 places above Time Mage, for instance.  (And Squire outside of the bottom 5).

And Move+2 is good in Vanilla FFT, because it fits perfectly into the Ninja plan, costing...approximately the cost of unlocking Ninja; how convenient.  You will basically always use move+2 on Ninja.  Your support might vary (Concentrate, Attack Up, Martial Arts, all good stuff).  Your reaction ought to be Auto Potion if you're not too lazy to get it.  And Move+2 does a lot for Ninja--among other things it buffs Throw, but it also just lets you get in range.  (And you know, high speed + Item is also a really good combo, and also benefits a lot from movement buffing).

(Actually quick correction: Move+2 is 520 JP in vanilla, not 600 as I claimed above, so it's a bigger JP nerf than I thought.  Steal Weapon is 600 LOLOLOL).

Yes, you will be weak while you're a Thief on the road to unlocking Ninja, but the same applies to Calculators.  The way you handle this is by having party members who are strong.  (And for what it's worth, you'll be weak when you're a Monk on the road to unlocking Ninja too, since you won't have any skills).  Basically the entire road to Ninja you're going to be fairly Trashy while your party members are going to be dropping Summons.  What this means is that...while Ninja is a fine and acceptable setup, you'll never do a party full of 5 Ninjas; you'll do like...One Ninja, maybe two.

As for Geomancer and Monk, they are both classes that got mild buffs in several areas (and a mild nerf to Attack Up).  Oracle...maybe; I want to say last time I did this I probably had Oracle above Priest.  Oracle has a lot of stuff it can do that's...kinda balanced, and certainly useful, but not much that's really gamebreaking (other than Silence Song in a few select fights).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 06:45:05 PM
Speaking of which...

12. Oracle

They got a mild MP nerf...not entirely sure why, and got a few spells essentially added to their spell list.  (Charm Song is new.  Technically Zombie is not new, but for practical purposes it might as well be--hit rate more than doubled, JP cost cut in half, CT lowered, AoE now).  But for the most part Oracles were not changed.  None of their key spells had their JP cost jacked up (a few JP costs were lowered).

13. ?

Ok, so here's where it gets kind-of interesting.  We're literally out of magic jobs (including Samurai) so it's going to be a job on the physical side of the tree, and probably something that has some level of synergy with Ninja.

Monk provides Martial Arts, Archer provides Concentrate, Geomancer provides Attack Up.  Monk might also provide Counter, and Punch Art Ninja is a viable alternative to Item Ninja, so there's that as an option.  Equip Sword Ninja is also hypothetically competitive damage wise with these options, but this would involve getting 400 Knight JP.

Hmm...what other utility do these add...?

Geomancer is a carrier, and if LFT has taught me anything it's that move is more valuable than I thought, so 4 move carrier is relevant.  To be fair though, LFT nerfed Wizard by 7%, and buffed Geomancer by 10%-15%.  Still though, Geo Agrias and Geo with Draw Out are real.

Knight sometimes provides Weapon Guard to mages from spillover JP.

Archer sometimes provides Charge to Chemist (or Ninja in an assassination mission).

Equip Sword for Knight is relevant for special classes.  Knight Swords also have some niche use (Mathskill Knight with Excalibur is a genuine competitor for Wizard if none of your special characters want the Excalibur).

Attack Up is super relevant for most of the special characters (Agrias, Orlandu).

Lancers are Mushrooms.

I think in the end the thing I'm looking at is the last remaining ability to get nerfed is Attack Up.  (That, and Geos still being a fairly relevant carrier despite Ninja and Wizard stealing a lot of thunder).

13. Geomancer

So...

14. Monk

Well...Martial Arts ninja is real, and actually Martial Arts Ninja in particular did get nerfed in LFT by the drop in Ninja PA.  Then again, Concentrate Ninja is actually usually thought of as the go-to over Martial Arts I believe?  It buffs both Throw and attacks, and if you're going into Melee range, you want to be 100% certain that the enemy is going to be dead.  But Archers do very little outside of that (a little bit of Charge on Chemists, that's about it).  If we look at the amount of buffs these classes got...Monks got 4 innate move, which is cool, and pretty much all their abilities cost less JP now.  But Archers...yeah, pretty much everything about the class was buffed.  Monk can be more than just Martial Arts/Counter and ditch the class in Vanilla.  Archer...nah.

15. Knight

So...the choice here is between Archer and Knight I think.  Archer provides Concentrate to Ninjas, and sometimes a couple charge abilities to Chemist.  Knight often gives Mages Weapon Guard for free from spillover, have Equip Sword which some characters like Agrias want, are a decent endgame carrier with Excalibur for Agrias or a generic with Mathskill (not relevant every playthrough).  Notably Weapon Guard was arguably nerfed, by being moved to Oracle where it's not the only ability you care about in the entire class.

16. Archer

Concentrate!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 07:40:32 PM
17. ?

So...this is worth thinking about I think.  The remaining three classes are Lancer, Dancer, and Bard.  (OK, there's four remaining classes, but spoiler alert, last place is not up for debate).

Lancer is actually pretty a strong SCC for the first few chapters, it just doesn't really play nice with other setups.  (Although...Ninja with mastered Jump is pretty good.  The weapons you need to use for that are dubious, though--either Equip Spear which negates Two Hands, or a Flail).

Bard...well Bard/Dancer both have this thing where they're actually quite good for levelling up calculators, since songs and dances go every 6 clockticks regardless of the caster's speed.  Bard is probably better for this because it's on the same side of the job tree as Calculator.  Also, Bard Ramza is pretty legit.  And...if you have a party full of spellcasters (which you should because Summon OP) Angel Song actually restores a ton of MP (60-90 every round to your entire party from infinite range; go ahead and spam Meteor every turn).  The unlocks aren't bad at all (Ramza has to spend some time in Summoner?  Oh noes.  He needs to be a Mediator for a bit?  That hurts a bit more, but you probably want a Mediator for at least one fight in Chapter 2, might as well be Ramza).

I feel like this is pointing at Bard.

17. Bard

Which means that next up...

18. Lancer

This is between Lancer and Dancer.  So...what do I think is more implausible...going to Lancer first, staying in the class while it is pretty good in Chapter 2/3, and then taking Jump to Ninja (or Samurai just as Jump is a good training secondary for Samurai--gives them a range move).  Or...unlocking Dancer so that you can have Dance as an overall good skillset and training secondary (pretty good training secondary for both Samurai and Calc--gives Samurai something to do while at range.  They'd be kinda OP if they had some long range move...).  Hmm...I feel like it's a massive detour for Calc.  I think if you have a Samurai, it's probably going to be Ramza, who can't dance.  And you're more likely to have a Ninja anyway.

19. Dancer

Dancers are a huge pet class of mine, I love using them, but yeah, the time they take to unlock makes them very not min-max (more unlock requirements than bards in vanilla!  Actually...more than Calcs in vanilla!  Granted, they're useful immediately after unlocking, unlike calcs).  Not much really needed to be changed about them in LFT, other than lowering their unlock requirements by about 700 JP, and nerfing Math Skill pretty hard, but these are fairly important changes.

(Granted, various things about them did get buffed in LFT just because; innate Attack Up, and carpets giving PA).

20. Mime

Mimes are so hillariously bad.  Oh my god.

So like...know how their unlock requirements in LFT are Squire JL4 Chemist JL4?  In FFT they're...Squire JL8, Chemist JL8, Lancer JL4, Geomancer JL4, Summoner JL4, Mediator JL4.  So........that's 2000+2000+100x6+250x2+450x4 = 5900.  Like...for all practical purposes they don't exist.

And if you do unlock them they...provide no abilities you can stick on other classes, and having a Mime is not useful because their stats don't really compensate for their lack of equipment (they have similar stats to no-equipment Monks).  Oh, and they can't use secondaries or R/S/M abilities, and 5900 JP into the game you probably have some pretty good abilities.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 07:48:48 PM
OK, so post list adjustment thought--maybe Samurai should be higher.  I had forgotten how much Kikuichimoji got nerfed in LFT.  (It's...probably a bigger nerf than Holy, Move+2, Invitation, or Teleport got).  Granted, it's locked into being a late Chapter 4 thing only because you can't buy them till Bethla, and in Vanilla, anything super lategame competed with Math Skill, so there's that.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2015, 08:15:57 PM
Actually, another thought:

I hadn't really made up my mind what I was doing with this list at first (doing stuff like "ban the top x classes" which turns out to not work very well), but towards the end of the list I had settled significantly on "how nerfed or buffed is it in LFT?  And how nerfed or buffed is the competition in LFT?"

Which brings me to Calculator: should it be #1?  (It's definitely the most-nerfed).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 12, 2015, 08:18:44 PM
If you want to focus exclusively on the very best setups then yes Move+2 is more likely to be on a high-end setup than Monk/Geomancer/Lancer stuff. If you want to rate classes only by the very best thing they offer then Thief at #9 is fine. But if you want to take into account the whole picture more, and I am strongly inclined to, then Thief is a bad FFT job. I don't really want to fall back on arguing ad populum here but it is tempting to point out that Thief got bad scores across the board when we rated FFT generics in the in-game use thread, so if you're using criteria that somehow gets them as high as ninth you should clearly state what those criteria are and understand that they aren't the norm.


Mediator strikes me as somewhat too high (again you continue to greatly overrate the C3 Chantage strategy IMO) but they're close enough to a bunch of other jobs you have just below them that I can see the argument. The main one I'd contest them above is Oracle. I think Life Drain is the boss-killer and that strikes me as more important than Invitation. I know Lich/Demi replace it, but there's an analog there of Steal to Invitation. We can debate the specifics here but I feel that Oracle's "rest of the package" (Sleep, Silence, Defence Up, Move-MP Up) is considerably better than Mediator's (Equip Gun, faith modifying, Gun + robe).


As time goes on I definitely increasingly feel that Samurai is kinda overrated.

MA Up Kiku = ~21 power
MA Up Muramasa = ~24 power, but only range 2
Short Charge Bahamut, 70/60 Faith = ~19 power, 5 CT, huge AoE
Short Charge Cyclops, 70/60 Faith = ~21 power, 5 CT, hits more targets than Draw Out
Utility stuff you can debate, Moogle/Fairy/Golem vs. Murasame/Kiyomori, though my gut feeling is Lich tilts this towards Summon as well.
And if 9-10 CT is viable, or faith raising is something you feel up to doing, or you're fighting a boss who always has high Faith Summon gets even better.

Draw Out doesn't really outperform Summon even at endgame. (Aftergame, it pushes way ahead as charge times become a bigger deal and potentially you get the last two katanas.) This is an issue because at every earlier point this is kind of a curbstomp; Samurai is annoying to access and a weak job to be in. I think we tend to overrate endgame performers a bit. There's a very real argument that Samurai is worse than the likes of Knight, who also have a point in the game where they're pretty good if still inferior to the top classes (C1) but unlike Samurai you can drop them in the part of the game where they're bad. I don't think I buy this argument myself, but it's there, and the more seriously you take Math Skill crushing the game from C2 on the better this argument looks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2015, 12:06:14 AM
There's a very real argument that Samurai is worse than the likes of Knight, who also have a point in the game where they're pretty good if still inferior to the top classes (C1) but unlike Samurai you can drop them in the part of the game where they're bad. I don't think I buy this argument myself, but it's there, and the more seriously you take Math Skill crushing the game from C2 on the better this argument looks.

Oh don't get me wrong, last time I made this list, I'm pretty sure I did use the "obsoleted by Mathskill" argument, and jammed Samurai in at something like 18th place.  Like...taking a hard line on that argument is perfectly viable, and I've gone that route before.  I'm thinking I want to take a slightly different approach here.

Quote
so if you're using criteria that somehow gets them as high as ninth you should clearly state what those criteria are and understand that they aren't the norm.

Oh for sure, I'm just still working out exactly what I want those criteria to be this time.

Quote
I think Life Drain is the boss-killer and that strikes me as more important than Invitation. I know Lich/Demi replace it, but there's an analog there of Steal to Invitation. We can debate the specifics here but I feel that Oracle's "rest of the package" (Sleep, Silence, Defence Up, Move-MP Up) is considerably better than Mediator's (Equip Gun, faith modifying, Gun + robe).

Ehh...

Life Drain is 350 JP, Demi is 250 JP

Life Drain is 160+MA to hit, Demi is 190+MA to hit

Life Drain has range 4, Demi can hit from range 5 (thanks to AoE).

Life Drain is not math skillable, Demi is Math skillable (which doesn't matter too much, but might tip the balance in terms of which one you learn).


Like...Life Drain's advantages are that it ignores evade (good property, but not relevant on Zodiac monsters) and that it has 2 CTR instead of 6 (actually this is relevant, especially if the battle lasts for more than one round) and that it heals (super useful in the SCC, and in solo challenges, but not a big deal for a team nuking a boss), and that it has a lower MP cost (not too relevant in a nuke-assassination fight, good in a battle of attrition).

I mean, it's functional for sure, but in terms of "some inexpensive ability that can blitz down this Zodiac boss" Demi costs less JP, hits more often from longer range, and stays relevant because it's mathskillable.

Notable exceptions for Solo challenges, of course, where I've used setups like "Ubersquire with Yin Yang Magic secondary" even though Mathskill was an option.  But solo challenges tend to be more of a "grind down this boss" and less of a "blitz down this boss".

Quote
Draw Out doesn't really outperform Summon even at endgame.

Well...yeah.  Like...when the FFT board rated skillsets, I believe it went something like...

1. Mathskill
2. Summon Magic
3. Time Magic
4. Draw Out

With All Swordskill somewhere in the middle of these (between Summon and Time maybe?)  And the board wasn't rating with JP costs in mind, they were just rating skillsets.

And yeah, there's an argument to be made of "it's 4th and shows up after Mathskill, you'll never use it."  And...granted, yes, you have to operate under the assumption that someone is doing a non-Mathskill playthrough for this kind of setup to make any sense.  But like...Time Mage or Summoner with Draw Out secondary is pretty good.  You have a mixture of abilities that cost MP and have charge time, and abilities that don't cost MP or have charge time, and that's actually a really strong mix (and makes a case for being a better endgame setup than Wizard with Summon).

And the rest of the just raw mastered skillsets according to the FFT board was something like...

5th: Yin-Yang
6th: White
7th: Jump
8th: Dance
9th: Punch Art
10th: Item
11th: Black Magic
12th: Sing
13th-19th: Not much to write home about in most fights--some niche uses of course (Basic Skill, Steal, Charge, Talk Skill, Elemental, Throw, Break).
20th: "..."

Maybe not in that order; I only remember the top 4 that the board voted on.  And this sort-of demonstrates the folly of ignoring JP costs and assuming mastered jobs, because lol Item and Black Magic are pretty good actually.  But anyway.

The further down you get on this list, and the less they synergize with good setups, the more dubious these become as "ultimate lategame setups".  Yin-Yang and Item have earlygame use--they do fine.  White gets a bit of a free ride from Math Skill, because you probably want Raise and Holy at some point anyway.  But Jump/Dance/Punch Art have a bit of "so...what class are you putting this on and why?"  Probably Ninja for some of them, but Ninja often just wants Item and attack command, and isn't too worried about investing 2000 JP into a physical skillset.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 13, 2015, 12:31:21 AM
Demi's a bit better than I thought it was (was thinking 7 CT and 160 hit for some reason). Clearly my memory of FFT is getting rusty, must replay it. That does knock Oracle down a little in my mind. Probably not below Mediator to me but into that debatable zone with Monk and Geomancer, sure.


Jump is, once you get it going (which does take a lot of JP), deals high damage (in ITE fashion which matters a fair deal for abilities with charge times) from range 8, and can be used to great effect by either characters with high HP or high speed as needed. It's also a great skillset for durability, since not only can you use it with high-HP jobs, but it can be used to avoid spells which enemies lock onto you. It's obviously rendered more or less completely obsolete by Math Skill, but otherwise carves out a niche well enough.

Punch Art's an easy way to raise the ranged damage of your Ninja (or other physical jobs, for all that only a few with high PA can use it well), and you get some limited multitarget, ITE (while still having Martial Arts instead of Concentrate) and you get some crappy revival and healing along with the ride. Is Ninja + Punch Art worse than Ninja + Item? Possible, but that's debatable.

Obviously neither is great, but they carve out their niches somewhat. Draw Out doesn't feel that far from them. It's better than they are generally, but with higher costs (gil, JP if you want to have more than a very minimal set), and Samurai itself is worse and gained later.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this. I guess that Samurai and Lancer are too far apart? I dunno. To be honest this thought was mostly a response to your comment thinking that maybe you were underrating Samurai, when I tend to think the opposite is closer to true these days. (I say all this as someone who still enjoys the class quite a bit and will make use of it pretty often.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2015, 04:25:56 AM
Punch Art's an easy way to raise the ranged damage of your Ninja (or other physical jobs, for all that only a few with high PA can use it well), and you get some limited multitarget, ITE (while still having Martial Arts instead of Concentrate) and you get some crappy revival and healing along with the ride. Is Ninja + Punch Art worse than Ninja + Item? Possible, but that's debatable.

I would certainly argue that Ninja+mastered Punch Art is better than Ninja+mastered Item.  It's mostly the JP cost of Punch Art holding it back.  Well...that and the whole "ideal play probably doesn't involve more than 1-2 Ninjas".  And the whole "you can't use this job while in Summoner/Time Mage/Wizard".  But in that particular scenario, if you have it mastered or close enough, yeah, it's probably better.


But regardless, I certainly think I talked myself into moving Oracle up, when I was like "so Draw Out is like the 4th best skillset when mastered, and Yin Yang Magic is the 5th best skillset when mastered, and Yin Yang also has good utility early on."  (YYM, incidentally, is a viable Ninja secondary if you get decent spillover JP and are using high faith; several low JP low CT low MP spells).

Incidentally, I'm starting to think about this "Punch Art gives Ninja range"  Ninja should already have range 6-7 through Move+2.  Maybe it's more ranged damage?  Hmm...ok, let's see, level 30 male Ninja...speed 9, PA 9, throwing a Morning Star can be 160 damage pretty easy using any speed buffing.  Earth Slash...well if you have Twist Headband Power Sleeve it's...114 damage.  With Bracer as well it's 192.  So....actually kind-of not really for adding to the ranged damage; it makes the ranged damage not cost money, and sets up possible AoE, and ignores evade (ignoring evade you can get for Throw thorugh Concentrate if you wanted).

Now, Jump, yes, Jump adds ranged damage.  Morning Star + triple PA items is 256 damage.  Can do more than that with Equip Spear.  Can safely equip a Thief Hat without the damage dropping much.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 13, 2015, 05:13:15 AM
I'd say going from 160 to 192 and simultaneously ditching the gil cost is a pretty big upgrade myself (the non-bracer numbers aren't even worth mentioning, if we want the accessory slot for defence then yeah we aren't using the ninja for pure offence any more anyway). And yeah, there's a possibility to hit two or more enemies. And Wave Fist does even more when your quarry is in range 2-3, though of course no ITE then. It's a fairly significant upgrade to your practical offence. Now, is it worth the JP cost? Very possibly not, but it's at least an option to consider.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 13, 2015, 09:15:46 AM
Am I safe in reading the cliff notes of this as

Quote from: metroidcomposite year 2000AD
what class should Ramza be?
Quote from: Excal then and forever
Monk
Quote from: elfbot2000
Samurai!

Quote from: the metroidcomposite of now and the future
Hmmmmm
Quote from: DankHolyElftron2020
You should reaaaaaaaally be thinking about Samurai.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2015, 09:41:58 AM
OK, let me try and break down my thought process into individual criteria, because this might be easier in categories...

Ordering of mastered (or to some practical degree mastered) skillsets...

1. Math Skill
2. Summon
3. Time
4. Draw Out
5. Yin Yang
6. White
7. Jump
8. Dance
9. Item
10. Punch Art
11. Sing

And everything else is stuff you're probably not going to use once you have mastered skillsets unless it comes with the class you're in right now.

Ordering of gamebreakingly undercosted skillsets

1. Summon
2. Black Magic
3. Item
4. Math Skill (1850 is undercosted for what it does yes)
5. Time (Demi is super inexpensive.  And while some parties don't like it, Haste is super inexpensive too).
6. Yin Yang (It's very laser focused, but tends to have strong skills for one fight, like Silence Song or Life Drain).
7. Talk Skill (that 100 JP invitation)
8. White Magic (600 JP for a nuke is a lot cheaper than all the other nukes.  It only crowds out a small number of other nukes, so that's fairly niche, but still)

R/S/M

1. Squire (Definitely the largest headache to balance)
2. Chemist
3. Time Mage
4. Wizard
5. Thief
6-11. Geo/Monk/Archer/Knight/Oracle (in...some...order)

I don't really feel the need to split these into earlygame/lategame R/S/M because skillsets are nearly always the focus, and R/S/M are nice buffs.

Miscellaneous grinding options

1. Mediator (Chapter 3 chantages, Faith buffing)
2. Thief (Chapter 3 chantages)
3. Move-Find Item I guess
4. Some level-up-down classes or something (Mime/Bard/Ninja!)

Carriers

1. Wizard
2. Ninja
(fairly large gap)
3. Geomancer
4. Knight
5. Various mages (Priest/Summoner for speed reasons)

Penalty classes (classes that can be painful to get JP in)

20. Calculator
19. Mime
18. Bard
17. Thief
16. Squire
15. Samurai
14. Archer
13. Monk (particularly when no abilities or female)
12/11. Armor classes  when clothing gets good (Knight/Lancer)
10. Chemist (specifically for people with spells pre-gun)

(Technically Mediator and Dancer aren't great numerically, but in practice, Dancer will always have access to dance, and you have a gun by the time you have any particular incentive to go mediator).

Am I safe in reading the cliff notes of this as

Quote from: metroidcomposite year 2000AD
what class should Ramza be?
Quote from: Excal then and forever
Monk
Quote from: elfbot2000
Samurai!

Quote from: the metroidcomposite of now and the future
Hmmmmm
Quote from: DankHolyElftron2020
You should reaaaaaaaally be thinking about Samurai.

I believe that is correct (I think you got the year right too).  You did miss the part where I was like "So how do I make Ramza a Dark Knight like Gafgarion?" though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2015, 04:49:49 PM
Alright, so last time I made a list like this I had "check points" which were something like 300 JP, 700 JP, 2000 JP, and 2000 JP was considered "endgame".  2000 JP is like...Chapter 2.

If I change these check points to be something like mid chapter 1, mid chapter 2, mid chapter 3, mid chapter 4...then yeah, Math Skill happens sometime in Chapter 2, and largely dominates things from then on.

However there's still room for other setups; you don't want to train five calculators at the same time; Math Skill isn't ideal for rescue missions (and you'd really like a Ninja for Roof of Riovanes to just remove any reliance on AI).

I will say, though, robes kind-of matter for chameleon robe.  Which means if you have a Ninja, and want to train a strong secondary, there's another reason why you might want to go for Lancer/Ninja rather than Monk/Ninja.  (Jump also lets you just time your jumps as Ninja to avoid mathskill).

So anyway, Calc -> #1


Next...what have we learned from laying out the criteria I did in the previous post?

I'm noticing I put Oracle both higher on the low cost skillset list than Priest, and higher on the mastered skillset list than Priest, so Oracle should move up above priest (+5 spaces or so >_>).

I'm redoing my criteria, adding more checkpoints to make Samurai sound justifyable and it...still kind-of sounds iffy.  The class is up there on the "your stats suck" scale.  It requires more JP than Mathskill.  You use it on a magic user, so it's not like Jump which goes on a Ninja who might not want to dip into Calc.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 13, 2015, 05:29:41 PM
For whatever it's worth, I'm definitely with Elf for not really being down to hype early Chantage.  (How is this even reasonable in C3?  I don't recall enemies pre-Meliadoul that'll have it...  do certain random encounter generics have it?  I thought the early perfumes were from breeding Uribos then poaching the results then hoping for the best which fuk.dat).  Even assuming it IS easy, Chantage breaks the game badly enough that relative power rankings aren't super-important anyway, except for the likes of Wiegraf / Roof / Elmdor where it's either Ramza alone or else Reraise doesn't really stop how you'd lose the fight.  It'd be like trying to rank FF7 characters assuming you grab Knights of the Round as fast as possible; fine, you win, we get it (even if KOTR was somehow tied to one character).  Mediator does have the run & gun, sure, but Chemist does the same but better, so eh.

I'm not sure how much this is worth since all FFT SSCs have been done, but I will agree that Lancer is pretty good for a physical Ramza build vs. Wiegraf, which is a classic sticking point for physical Ramza.  Run around like a coward sniping from 8 range & all, and still useful vs. Velius.  Sure Lancer falls off hard in C4 and its skillset isn't useful outside the class, but "good at one of the hardest fights" is a pretty decent niche.  (Maybe STILL only worth a horrible rating but that'd speak better of the competition rather than worse of Lancer, IMHO.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 13, 2015, 05:40:53 PM
There is a 1/3 chance that a Uribo will spawn in a certain one-shot story battle (Zigolis Swamp) in chapter 2. Invite it, breed it until you get a Porky, and poach those for Chantages, which you can buy from the fur shop starting in chapter 3. This is the only way to get it before Chapter 4. As I said before I don't think much of this.

I pretty much agree re Lancer as well.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 13, 2015, 06:58:47 PM
Yah, I know the Uribo farming trick (although I've never personally done it), I was just assuming that maybe there was a less hair-pulling path out there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 13, 2015, 09:43:52 PM
That is the least frustrating way of getting them, soooooooo...

Also since they don't come here to comment, I will put words in their mouths

Quote from: metroidcomposite
I'm noticing I put Oracle both higher on the low cost skillset list than Priest, and higher on the mastered skillset list than Priest, so Oracle should move up above priest (+5 spaces or so >_>).

Quote from: RICHARD and Laggy
:)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 13, 2015, 09:59:18 PM
The least frustrating way of getting them involves poaching Porkies directly in END, but that's too late for them to be worth anything besides being shiny, at least in FFT original.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on October 14, 2015, 01:23:03 AM
Quote
Penalty classes (classes that can be painful to get JP in)

20. Calculator
19. Mime
18. Bard
17. Thief
16. Squire

Mmm. In paper this makes sense, but in practice it's never felt like an issue. Early C1 Squire isn't much of a liability if it is one at all, and then later on you can get lots of spillover from special characters like Agrias, Orlandu, C4 Ramza, etc. I guess if there was a hypothetical uberskill that required 2000 Squire JP it would matter more, but in vanilla FFT you can get the Squire skills that matter easily enough.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on October 14, 2015, 10:09:22 AM
Oracle has 90 MP mult in LFT because they got innate Move MP Up.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2015, 03:37:24 PM
Quote
Penalty classes (classes that can be painful to get JP in)

20. Calculator
19. Mime
18. Bard
17. Thief
16. Squire

Mmm. In paper this makes sense, but in practice it's never felt like an issue. Early C1 Squire isn't much of a liability if it is one at all, and then later on you can get lots of spillover from special characters like Agrias, Orlandu, C4 Ramza, etc. I guess if there was a hypothetical uberskill that required 2000 Squire JP it would matter more, but in vanilla FFT you can get the Squire skills that matter easily enough.

I agree with pretty much all of this.

But well you see, sometimes you want 2100 Squire JP so that you can unlock Mime!!!!!1  (Been there, done that in Chapter 4...)

And it also mostly it locks squire out of any serious consideration for other uses of JP.  Like...

Is it worth it to have Accumulate on a Monk?
A. no.
B. That's 300 Squire JP.  On top of the 400 Squire JP you're reserving for Gained JP Up and Move+1.

Is Counter Tackle going to be your first reaction ability for most of your characters?
A. Probably not.
B. You can change the class of your guests, you know.  If you already have the 400 Squire JP you want, You can make them Knights, usually giving them better stats, and getting you JP spillover for Weapon Guard; since Knight starts with 150 JP on average, you only need ~50 spillover.  Unlike Counter Tackle where you'd need an extra 180 JP after Move+1 and Gained JP Up.  (And Weapon Guard is usually preferable for mages).  Chemist is another popular guest switch job once Guns show up, because you tend to want some extra Chemist JP, but tend to have a lot of characters who don't really feel like being Chemists.

Like...yeah, you basically get everything you want from Squire basically for free, so it's really only a way of making Mime even worse.  But it exists!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2015, 04:22:25 PM
Even assuming it IS easy, Chantage breaks the game badly enough that relative power rankings aren't super-important anyway, except for the likes of Wiegraf / Roof / Elmdor where it's either Ramza alone or else Reraise doesn't really stop how you'd lose the fight.

Well, yeah, I'm assuming Chantages only break the game 1/3 of the time, if you bring a Mediator to the Chapter 2 fight.  (Because I'm not going to actually reset that fight; that would involve having a reset, which would be UNACCEPTABLE!  This is a zero reset zero casualty challenge!  It's even harder than the zero casualty challenge!!1!1!1!1)

Battles like Roof and Yardow are also why Ninja is fairly high.  What are Math Skill wizards actually pretty bad at doing?  Saving Rafa, since you can lose before you get a turn, and have issues with Friendly Fire.  With Ninja you always get a turn.

But mostly, this is a list about picking out optimal setups.  Oracle was misplaced and shouldn't be below those two; already fixed that.  I think we've established that Samurai probably should be lower if anything.  I think we've established that Lancer is king of the physical skillsets, synergizes best with Mathskill out of the list of physical skillsets (and I'll also add has a decent use for the Excalibur).  So...sure, Lancer over Thief and Mediator--I can get behind that.

But like...I'm skeptical about the rest.

Monk?  If you're mastering punch art you need to justify doing that over mastering jump--it's not a quick dip skillset.  And have fun not wearing Chameleon Robes.  In terms of a quick dip into Monk for R/S/M...Move+2 is a bigger deal than Martial Arts/Counter.

Dancer?  I do think they move up some with the addition of more checkpoints; don't think they move up that much.

Geomancer?  I'd rate Move+2 over Attack Up, and their ability to carry is pretty niche in vanilla FFT (LFT buffs their stats by 10%-15% while nerfing Wizard and Ninja stats for a reason.  Geos still have swords, so Agrias cares).

Knight?  Like...only in maybe 1/2 to 1/3 of playthroughs will you get good mileage out of Knight Swords on a generic rather than a special character.  Weapon Guard is good, but below Move+2.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 14, 2015, 09:34:31 PM
Ninjas aren't particularly valuable in Yardow. The enemy ninjas have 9 speed, so even your ninjas won't outspeed that (the only +speed equip you can get that they don't have is the Green Beret, and that at best will make up for the fact that the ninjas have ~25 levels with Ninja speed growth and probably 5-10 levels on you to boot) so they don't prevent the (very slim) chance that the ninjas gank Rafa with unusually powerful Throws. Meanwhile, pretty much anyone can prevent Malak from finishing her off (the rare times he even has any chance of doing so), and she is pretty much never in the Summoners' range.

Math Skill also honestly deals with the roof pretty well! Protect or healing on Rafa, some status or other on Lede (paralysis should work offhand, or just killing with damage, though you'll probably have to be Level 18 to manage that (so that you can go Wizard). Priest with Green Beret + Sprint Shoes will be the 9 speed required at any reasonable level, Ubersquire as well most likely.

This is why I'm not terribly comfortable with 100% assuming we just blow everything up with Math Skill, it kinda makes all but a very small number of other jobs pointless. Despite some on-paper advantages, Ninja is honestly one of them. (Their biggest thing is being the fastest possible carrier for Math Skill, but I'm not sure that a ~10% edge over Priest is worth the trouble of unlocking them.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on October 15, 2015, 12:58:54 AM
I'm bored at work, so I figure I may as well throw in my 2 cents. Here's how I'm going to gauge the classes.

1) I don't assume that this is hardcore min-max world where Math Skill has beaten the game by the start of C3. While I'm going to give Math Skill some credit for its capability to reduce every fight to a single ability, the truth of the matter is that is not how most people play FFT. It's a little difficult to articulate this because this is ranking jobs on their effectiveness at beating the game, but it also assumes that you aren't setting up your entire party to optimize/synergize the way a CT5 Holy strategy demands. IOWs, there is some fun factor being weighed in where the more degenerate/boring a strategy is, the more I'll squint at giving it credit. People simply enjoy blowing up their enemies with giant space rocks and/or angry thunder gods, or punching demonic blobs and goats for absurd damage, in a way that watching Holy cast 10 times in a row as the only fight interaction doesn't provide.

2) Jobs are not ranked SCC-style or in a vacuum. Synergy with other jobs (and how easy it is to achieve said synergies) are definitely taken into consideration.

3) The amount of time investment (JP grind, generally), and overall the efficiency of the job, is a strong factor that is weighed as heavily, if not more heavily, than end/aftergame value which assume an overabundance of JP.

4) The difficulty of execution is factored in somewhat, but generally assumes a player is well-versed in FFT. This mostly is some wiggle room for CT calculations, Teleport, etc.

---

1. Summoner
Minimal investment: Easy to unlock. Early summons are absurdly damaging, efficient, and handily destroy the game. At 4 CT it is kind of really hard to mess Ramuh up even late.
Overall endgame value: Does technically get supplanted by Math Skill. But the rest of their skillset remains relevant (run your big summon of choice for assassinations, Golem is great utility, Moogle is solid healing, etc.) and you'll almost certainly never feel lacking in options nor power using Summon.

2. Wizard
Minimal investment: Coast on Bolt early on, grab Magic AttackUP later. Utterly wrecks the first two chapters due to stats and abundance of magic boosting equipment.
Endgame value: Best carrier in the game for the top skillsets, Summon and Math Skill. There isn't much that a Wizard with Black/Summon doesn't rip to the ground effortlessly for pretty much the whole game. Also the best user of Draw Out in the aftergame if desired.

3. Chemist
Minimal investment: 90 JP for better than half of the skillsets in the game. The immediate assumed default secondary for everyone early on, and probably still always set on at least one PC for the guaranteed, easy revival. Auto Potion is the best reaction in the game and comes at a dirt cheap 400 JP relative to its power.
Endgame value: Phoenix Down only gets better the longer the game goes. Auto Potion remains overpowered from start to finish. They simply don't provide any offense in a game where killing everything quickly is generally more efficient, but they are amazing at making sure you don't reset due to silliness or random mistakes.

4. Squire
Minimal investment: All that guest JP spillover and time you spend in Ubersquire is so hard...
Endgame value: Yeah, this is all up in that Gained JP Up and Move+1. Yes, this is so utterly prevalent that they place this high despite basically being ignored past C1 otherwise. Footnote - I recognize that Gained JP Up technically lets you access the good broken stuff (Summon mainly) faster, but past that delay it doesn't really matter too much because you don't actually -need- that much JP to break the game over your knee. Past that point it's just mostly for fun and playing with variety for the sake of variety. Which is all fine and good, of course, but is the main reason I have it below Chemist.

5. Calculator
Minimal investment: I'm always a bit surprised at how tame Calculator's unlocks are relative to its potential. They're pretty much equivalent to Ninja and Samurai, and makes Mime even more sad.
Endgame value: Newsflash, Math Skill is still insanely good even when you don't optimize your entire party for it. It is kinda painful to grind up Calc JP but it doesn't take -that- long and doesn't take a lot of spells for it to be really, really good, either. The sheer variety and power that the skillset presents is undeniable, on top of being instant and free.

6. Ninja
Minimal investment: In pretty much no way, I think, does Ninja even touch Calculator for effectiveness as the other usable late-unlocked job in the grand scheme of things. But on the other hand, Ninja is great out of the gate and needs less grind overall.
Endgame value: It gets perhaps more credit than it objectively deserves by being one of the few actual viable physical options in FFT. Still though, gamebest speed and OHKOs are things no one ever passes up, and it does edge out the mage jobs in some fights where going first and killing something immediately is helpful.

7. Time Mage
Minimal investment: Haste is nice, although it does present some additional difficulties to those using spellcasters. Demi is often overlooked despite it being a fairly easy to grab boss killer (I dunno, it just isn't that exciting). They suffer a bit from being pretty much all utility, which doesn't actually end fights. But overall they're a well designed job where everything feels usable and impactful - can't really go wrong with hasting your team and slowing the enemies and such.
Endgame value: Teleport rocks, of course. Short Charge is really more of a way to play around with most of FFT's spells to make them bearable rather than coming down to use the few insanely broken ones (see: Ramuh, Bolt) except for the Meteor setup, which does of course crush a large segment of the game if you're up for it.

8. Priest
Minimal investment: I'm honestly not at all impressed by Priest as a healer. Item is way, way, WAY better early on... like it's not even close - Potion and PD cost less than any two abilities on Priest, are instant, cheap, and just generally far more effective (don't need to worry about faith, cast time, etc.) Raise is kinda nice despite these drawbacks because it returns targets with HP but I still don't feel it comes close. Cure is good as inexpensive MT healing, but this is FFT - you're usually better off just killing stuff before it hurts you. By the way this is what Holy does.
Endgame value: 600 JP to put your faith in the light. The steam engine for Math Skill's omnipotence. Still great as an assassination spell on Wizard or whatever. It is pricy, but you don't normally need to cast it more than once. They also have speed which can be kinda nice sometimes if you need to sync up with enemy speed on a mage class.

9. Oracle
Minimal investment: Most people I know make Paralyze or Sleep the go-to spell on Oracle when they first pick it up. It's easy to see why, as they are strong debilitating spells with some aoe that just make a problem go away. Silence Song is amazing when it is relevant. Life Drain is fast and kills zodiacs dead. Sticks are cool, though honestly not that great IMO.
Endgame value: Most of it's up in Life Drain, I think, although again people don't tend to run 'Life Drain x4 to end the fight right away' unless they're doing a challenge or something. Otherwise, Oracle is a bit awkward because status just ends up being less efficient and slower than blowing things up in FFT, and that's the rest of their skillset (I mean, I am ranking the trio of Cure/Raise/Holy above all of YYM, which is kind of harsh but I think is actually true in practice). A lot of it just isn't accurate enough to be worth using or investing in. However, it is still an FFT mage, and thus is better than every other physical job not named Ninja.

10. Mediator
Minimal investment: Comparisons to Oracle are obvious. On the other hand, Invite can be absurd, they don't have charge times and they don't need to worry about faith. They're also gun users and can use Black Robe + elemental guns, which is nice. But their skillset is pretty much a two-trick pony (Invite, Mimic Daravon) aside from...
Endgame value: Br/Fa twinking. It's there, it's a thing. It's not really ever necessary and serves more to deal with OCD compulsions to perfect your party members, I think. They do certainly offer more than Oracles with dedicated use but I'm pretty sure I'd take an Oracle over one in just generally playing through the game.

11. Geomancer
Minimal investment: You only actually need a few Elementals for the skillset to be decent. You don't ever set it, but hey, you're not using Geomancer for its skillset anyway. Obviously a solid carrier for Agrias (much, MUCH better than Knight IMO, at least pre-Excalibur) and Attack UP pretty much cements this.
Endgame value: If Agrias didn't exist and wasn't so popular, Geomancer would be so much farther down the list. I mean, -yeah-, they can be mage carriers with 4 move and shields, thanks to Rune Blade/Aegis/etc. but I don't actually think these benefits, nice as they are, really can beat out the far more obvious carrier, Wizard, which comes with native Bolt and just way more damage. But I appreciate that they exist as an option, nonetheless.

12. Monk
Minimal investment: WHY ARE MONKS 3 MOVE. I remember mc saying over and over how much this aspect of them was making her cry when we were playtesting them in LFT. An interesting and varied skillset - said variety having a lot of appeal and making Monk quite popular with new FFT players, I find - hampered by being overpriced in JP costs, having annoying vertical tolerance issues, and being rather ineffective by the time you do actually buy them, with one notable exception (Earth Slash).
Endgame value: Earth Slash is indeed quite good, though pricy. Hamedo has... uses, though it's still just way too expensive. No hats is of course an utter killer in a game where hats give you the god stat, speed. Martial Arts Ninja is a thing. I had a very hard time trying to decide whether Punch Art or Jump win out when mastered, but Monk's just more fun. And yeah, Martial Arts Ninja edges them out for me.

13. Lancer
Minimal investment: Yeah, they're kinda eh... 3 move again (why), not fast, armored class. But hey, spears are all right (beat out swords for a good while, the extra range makes up for the mobility somewhat; they're pretty underrated).
Endgame value: Mastered Jump is good and definitely competing for best physical skillset. It's just really boring.

14. Knight
Minimal investment: Weapon Guard! Kinda usable in C1 if you aren't Bolting everything to death for... some reason! And generally everyone will have Knight unlocked, unlike some other jobs (hi Thief), because FFT magic/physical sides of the job tree are ~balanced~.
Endgame value: Well there are better reactions, like I don't know, Auto Potion over there. Admittedly RSM tend to be a bit of the backburner so you may end up just using a freebie Weapon Guard for quite same time, and it's all right at that. Excalibur can make one work sorta maybe. But otherwise, uh, why would you, ever, terrible skillset, terrible equipment, ugh.

15. Samurai
Minimal investment: It isn't.
Endgame value: I like Draw Out a LOT design-wise. But I pretty much have to echo NEB on this: it is forcibly staggered progression, expensive gil wise, expensive JP wise, the job itself is terrible on stats and equipment, and no one here has bought Blade Grasp hype for over a decade. In the super lategame department why on earth would you run this over Math Skill, objectively, other than because it's less time consuming to click through the abilities? If you throw out Math Skill and really don't want to worry about charge times then sure, it's a thing and it's pretty cool... strong self-centered MT damage, healing, buffs, and an 8 range nuke that supercedes every damaging DO before it (<_< >_>). How popular it seems to be with players is a testament that they had a good idea here going, but botched pricing it way too much.

16. Thief
Minimal investment: You get Move+2 when you go to Ninja! Steal Heart is cheap and usable, easily the best (the only?) skill they have available.
Endgame value: I have approximately zero respect for stealing shenanigans as a serious exercise because of the absurd timesink. You do it if you want to be a collector, but that's really about it. Everyone knows how bad they are otherwise. So they're a Ninja engine and little else.

17. Archer
Minimal investment: There is literally nothing here worth looking at that isn't Concentrate. Oh my god, Charge is so bad (yes yes I know you can make it work a bit early on but why would you stay in this job beyond the JP you need for Concentrate is beyond me.)
Endgame value: Concentrate's cool on your Ninja. But Move+2 is guaranteed and Concentrate isn't. Bows were cool at Dorter 1 when that enemy Archer was wrecking your shit with his Longbow, and then quickly become irrelevant.

18. Bard
19. Dancer
20. Mime
Too lazy to explain these in-depth, but they're pretty obvious (way too late, don't do enough being that late. Bard has comedy option Move+3 for those who don't like Teleport and it's easier to JP grind with them. Both have some okay early abilities in Life/Angel Song and Nameless Dance, but meh.)

Redeeming Mime is the reason I made LFT.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 15, 2015, 06:36:16 AM
Yeah, I definitely remember some moments of "Laggy is buffing Lancers again in LFT, not because they're underpowered, but just because nobody in the playerbase is actually excited about them."


Serious, question, though--about either Laggy's list or mine--if we're valuing Monk primarily for their lategame contribution with mastered Punch Art as a Ninja secondary...should we value Samurai higher?

Draw Out is better than Punch Art; tends to deal more damage at most points in the game (if you're in a class with real MA; obviously not always in the Samurai class itself--although sometimes yes in the Samurai class as well.  Chapter 2 says hi, with Koutetsu dealing 84-96 on Samurai class, and Earth Slash dealing 30-48 on Monk class.  Wave fist isn't much better at 40-60 from Monk class).  Both Draw Out and Punch Art pass the "fun"/"appealing" barometer that Laggy cares about.

Like...don't get me wrong, I'm all for calling Samurai trashy.  I've done a Samurai SCC, and they ARE kinda trashy.  But like...by "trashy" I mean "they're not Summoners."  Not "They're even shittier than Monks."  Even in an "I'm stuck in this mediocre class training a skillset" scenario, I'd have to think about which one is worse.  Yeah, Samurai have shit equipment and poor stats, but Monks don't have hats, so like...everyone's a loser.

Ninjas aren't particularly valuable in Yardow. The enemy ninjas have 9 speed, so even your ninjas won't outspeed that (the only +speed equip you can get that they don't have is the Green Beret, and that at best will make up for the fact that the ninjas have ~25 levels with Ninja speed growth and probably 5-10 levels on you to boot) so they don't prevent the (very slim) chance that the ninjas gank Rafa with unusually powerful Throws. Meanwhile, pretty much anyone can prevent Malak from finishing her off (the rare times he even has any chance of doing so), and she is pretty much never in the Summoners' range.

Math Skill also honestly deals with the roof pretty well! Protect or healing on Rafa, some status or other on Lede (paralysis should work offhand, or just killing with damage, though you'll probably have to be Level 18 to manage that (so that you can go Wizard). Priest with Green Beret + Sprint Shoes will be the 9 speed required at any reasonable level, Ubersquire as well most likely.

This is why I'm not terribly comfortable with 100% assuming we just blow everything up with Math Skill, it kinda makes all but a very small number of other jobs pointless. Despite some on-paper advantages, Ninja is honestly one of them. (Their biggest thing is being the fastest possible carrier for Math Skill, but I'm not sure that a ~10% edge over Priest is worth the trouble of unlocking them.)

Mmm...these are all good points I hadn't thought of.  I will say that without Math Skill, there's not a whole lot useful that a Priest can do with that initial turn.  (Kiyomori if you have Draw Out!  Maybe if you have a couple Priests like this with Equip Sword you can stab an Assassin to death before she moves).  Although...maybe just getting the turn, and charging so that the Assassins attack you to interrup the charge is enough.  (Or charge a fatal spell on Rafa so they think there's no point in attacking her.  Meteor without Short Charge!)

Yeah, ok, point taken, Ninjas aren't as special as I thought they were.  Mostly this makes me wonder if Ninja is too high at 6th.  Like...certainly there's always been an argument for Time Mage above Ninja.  Maybe Priest/Oracle are worth considering too.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 15, 2015, 08:00:18 AM
Are you asking, should you think about Samurai?

I dunno, maybe we should ask Elf.  Elfman, should metroid be thinking about Samurai?

Also Laggy, really can't you just handle

Quote
1) I don't assume that this is hardcore min-max world where Math Skill has beaten the game by the start of C3. While I'm going to give Math Skill some credit for its capability to reduce every fight to a single ability, the truth of the matter is that is not how most people play FFT. It's a little difficult to articulate this because this is ranking jobs on their effectiveness at beating the game, but it also assumes that you aren't setting up your entire party to optimize/synergize the way a CT5 Holy strategy demands. IOWs, there is some fun factor being weighed in where the more degenerate/boring a strategy is, the more I'll squint at giving it credit. People simply enjoy blowing up their enemies with giant space rocks and/or angry thunder gods, or punching demonic blobs and goats for absurd damage, in a way that watching Holy cast 10 times in a row as the only fight interaction doesn't provide.

This by just going "Yes Calculator #1 ok thanks now lets talk about the fun things".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 15, 2015, 10:57:18 AM
Dancer at rock bottom surprises me.  Sure, they're a pain to get to, not good at bosses, and inconsistent.  But once you're there, they make it much easier to gain JP in anything else (especially Calc!) and the skillset *can* YOLO RNG solo any non-boss fight.  No matter how bad the rest of your team is, "have someone Nameless Dance and protect them a turn or two" is always an out that gives you a floor % to win any fight it can work on - I've certainly seen multiple casual runs fall back on it.  On Hatbot-style runs I'd much rather be randomizing to Dancer than to Bard, Knight, Archer or Thief. 

Also on the LFT end, Dance went through quite a lot of revisions!  Turns out skills that autotarget every enemy on the battlefield and can't be defended against are very hard to balance.  There is not a lot of middle ground between "useless" and "oh wait, we made Slow Dance 100%, now two Dancers and a Mime win every fight in two turns." 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 15, 2015, 04:18:46 PM
Dancer at rock bottom surprises me.  Sure, they're a pain to get to, not good at bosses, and inconsistent.  But once you're there, they make it much easier to gain JP in anything else (especially Calc!) and the skillset *can* YOLO RNG solo any non-boss fight.  No matter how bad the rest of your team is, "have someone Nameless Dance and protect them a turn or two" is always an out that gives you a floor % to win any fight it can work on - I've certainly seen multiple casual runs fall back on it.  On Hatbot-style runs I'd much rather be randomizing to Dancer than to Bard, Knight, Archer or Thief. 

Also on the LFT end, Dance went through quite a lot of revisions!  Turns out skills that autotarget every enemy on the battlefield and can't be defended against are very hard to balance.  There is not a lot of middle ground between "useless" and "oh wait, we made Slow Dance 100%, now two Dancers and a Mime win every fight in two turns."

Yeah, I believe I mentioned they should probably move up given that I'm adding additional checkpoints after "you have 1850 JP and therefore know mathskill, gg". 

In particular, here's what I'm seeing as potential uses:

1. Calculcator with Dance (other than taking a long time to get your turn, Calc's dance about as good as anyone).
2. Samurai with Dance (for most of the game, Samurai have range 2; Dance gives them range, matches the side of the job tree they're on, and you probably want female samurai.  This might actually be their best non-Math secondary; Dance is also strong early while Draw Out is strong late, so that works out nicely).
3. Spellcasters with Dance (if you want a no-MP skillset to stick on MP hungry spellcasters, Dance is...pretty good, maybe 3rd best, after Mathskill and Draw Out.  That said, if your spellcaster is MP hungry because on turn 1 they murder half the enemies with Meteor...fewer living enemies makes Dance weaker, so ehhhhhh, the synergy here is questionable)
4. Chemist with Dance (Possibly the best non-Mathskill skillset on a Chemist.  Gives Chemist strong stuff to do on the first couple turns before they become a phoenix down bot; that said, if you already have Dance you may not stick in Chemist much past the 400 JP for Auto Potion).

I've also certainly done Ninja with Dance, but I'm not sure how much I would consider that a serious setup.  (Dance really doesn't make much use of Ninja speed.  Female Ninjas deal less physical damage.  It does give Ninjas more range, so that's cool.  And there is some synergy in that Ninjas usually want to clean-up or pick off stray enemies, not yolocharge into the middle of all the enemies.  But...yeah, I think Jump and Punch Art are still going to be the primary choices here, although if you happen to be going with a female Ninja I think it's a solid option; takes less training than Jump, and female Ninjas are not using Punch Art ever).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 15, 2015, 04:55:49 PM
I'm just not sure what classes you'd move Dancer above. Dance is cool but the class is still a pain to unlock and as a skillset it does have some big weaknesses. I have a hard time seeing Dance > Punch Art by a big enough margin to make up for Monk's other advantages, or Dance > Draw Out period, so really I guess I'm saying that I don't really see Dancer rising above anything besides maybe one or more of Knight/Archer/Thief.


Quote
Yeah, ok, point taken, Ninjas aren't as special as I thought they were.  Mostly this makes me wonder if Ninja is too high at 6th.  Like...certainly there's always been an argument for Time Mage above Ninja.  Maybe Priest/Oracle are worth considering too.

My last post wasn't really intended to discredit Ninjas, they do do some things legitimately well. Fast, high, 0-CT damage is useful! Just, their niche gets badly crowded out by Math Skill, which can be almost as fast, and is also instant high damage (or similarly potent effects). However, I think it's very reasonable to talk about a metagame where Math Skill isn't seeing use and that's where Ninja is actually the best at their niche. Them vs TM is debatable, but I do think they should stay above Priest/Oracle.


I think Laggy undersells white magic healing somewhat (in particular, I think Cure is better than Potion; being able to heal multiple people is really useful, and CT on Cure isn't usually -that- big a deal except on Priest itself during that weird window in chapter 2 where a 7 speed mage is a Bad Thing) but it doesn't really matter because his broader points about healing not being super-decisive in FFT are spot-on.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on October 15, 2015, 06:46:20 PM
Cure is better than Potion, but the PD vs Raise comparison just blows any advantages that Cure have out of the water to me, basically.

Dancer's just way too late. You have to go down the wrong side of the job tree for that gender to unlock it for a skillset that's pretty much inferior to the dead-easy mage stuff. Dance isn't bad in itself, but the question is, generally, why bother to begin with?

I could squint and see moving it above the classes that exist basically only to supplement Ninja while unlocking it (Archer/Thief) but even then the accessibility thing rears its head.

EDIT: Re: viability of Punch Art over Draw Out, you get to access Monks and use them for a period before not wearing a hat is utterly crippling, and they aren't item-locked out of their skillset - you can just beeline straight for Earth Slash. For Samurai they are terrible no matter when you use them. And MA Ninja w/ Earth Slash alone is pretty okay, you don't really need to master Punch Art at all (I mean you can take Chakra and Revive for giggles but usually you're just going to be chipping from 8 range when you can't get into melee for the OHKO.)

Remember that Koutetsu is 2 range and Earth Slash is 8 range, too. It kind of evens out, and Koutetsu looks especially worse when the still-common Bolt in C2 has 5 range - at least in some situations the extra aoe and ranged chip on Earth Slash can be relevant.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2015, 06:41:54 AM
Hmmm...ok, spent a bit of time thinking about how I'd want to do checkpoints, if I was measuring stuff.

A chapter 1, 2, 3, 4, 4 checkpoint split sounds reasonable enough.

Something like...level 5 in Chapter 1 (playthroughs are often a bit lower than this, but whatever round numbers), level 10 in Chapter 2 (roughly where my SCCs tend to beat the chapter; 10-11 usually), level 15 in Chapter 3 (Most SCCs aren't level 18 for Velius/Wiegraf unless they intentionally grind a few levels because they're scared), level 20 in early chapter 4, level 30 in later chapter 4.

Store checkpoints would be...

Ch1: Sand Rat (the thing about Lenalia is that you literally need to backtrack to even use it; ain't nobody got time for that).

Ch2: meeting at Lionel Castle (Barius Valley has the same problem as Lenalia where you need to detour to even get stuff--detour pretty far if you want Cross Helmets)

Ch3: Orbonne Monestary (Yardow has some of the same problems outlined above.  Also, people do buy Bracers, but not necessarily in Chapter 3.  Most expensive thing in the store at any point, only available for three fights in the Chapter).

Ch4-1: I think Betha Garrison?  I considered chapter 4 start here, but like...not that much changes?  It's two store checkpoints away from Orbonne, and two of not the most important store checkpoints.

Ch4-2: Endgame, with some consideration for sidequests and stuff.

What do these level 5, level 10, level 15, level 20, level 30 numbers mean for JP at each point?

Well...level 5 in Chapter 1 means that you...gained 400 exp.  You'll have a mixture of 10ish exp actions (interacting but not killing) and 20 exp actions (killing).  Overall, let's say a 2:1 ratio of standard:kill.  This means 30 actions overall.

At Job level 1, with Gained JP Up, an action gains you 15 JP.  This goes up with job level, so 18, 21, 24, etc.

Another thing to consider is the overshoot effect.  Battles on average last, let's say, 3 turns.  So...let's say you only want 200 Chemist JP.  Sometimes you'll take exactly the number of actions you need, sometimes 1 extra action, sometimes 2 extra actions.  On average you waste 1 action per every multiclass.

With all this in mind, the average number of actions to reach a job level and then stop are...

JL2 (200 JP in class): 4.3
JL3 (350 JP in class): 12.6
JL4 (550 JP in class): 22.2
JL5 (800 JP in class): 32.6

So...if you started the game with Gained JP Up, you could almost get one class to 800 JP.  Note that these values depend on player level too, so you gain JP faster at higher level--the above turn counts mostly apply to Chapter 1.

So like...6 actions to get Gained JP Up into JL2 Chemist, JL2 Wizard, JL2 Time Mage, JL2 Summoner...that's 23 actions to get Summon.  Still about 7 actions left; could get one of those classes very close to JL3; maybe learn Moogle or something.


For the Chapter 2 checkpoint, there's actually more levels gained; 5->10 instead of 1->5.  This means probably 37 actions.  Additionally, actions are now worth a little bit more:

JL2: 3.8 actions
JL3: 10.9 actions
JL4: 19.2 actions
JL5: 28.5 actions

So...question: can you get Calculator?  Let's say Chapter 1 you went for JL4 Wizard.  You can proooobably swing that in Chapter 1 using guest spillover to shortcut you Gained JP Up.  Then this chapter you'd need JL4 priest, JL3 Oracle, JL3 Time Mage...that's already about 40 actions.  With a lot of help from spillover you can probably swing this, but if you're not getting much spillover, you won't be online with Calc yet at this checkpoint; you actually just barely won't have it unlocked.

(For what it's worth, if you're going dedicated Monk, you'd be about at roughly job level 7 now, 1550 total JP, so you could get Earth Slash, Wave Fist, and...one of Chakra/Revive.  Lancer would be worse-off due to stricter unlock requirements, but probably Job level 6--1150 JP, which means like...Level Jump 8, vertical Jump 3 is doable by this point...but only if you skip all the intermediate jumps and start grinding Lancer in Chapter 1 when they don't have spears...).





Anyway, might actually run some calculations on the various checkpoints later.  Just brainstorming what a set of checkpoints might look like, and thinking about which checkpoints make sense to check.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2015, 07:17:29 AM
I have a hard time seeing Dance > Punch Art by a big enough margin to make up for Monk's other advantages, or Dance > Draw Out period, so really I guess I'm saying that I don't really see Dancer rising above anything besides maybe one or more of Knight/Archer/Thief.

Sure; I mean, it's noteworthy that I did say "pick up Dance to help you train in Samurai"; I'm not advocating for Dancer above Samurai here.  And Dance vs Punch Art is...probably pretty close in an abstract "if you were gifted one mastered skillset, which is better" comparison, so yeah, even if Dance is a little better, Monks are a whole lot more convenient.

But like...if we're doing later game no-mathskill comparisons, yeah, I probably see Dancer above Bard and Archer.  Maybe one or both of Geomancer/Knight.

Quote
EDIT: Re: viability of Punch Art over Draw Out, you get to access Monks and use them for a period before not wearing a hat is utterly crippling

Umm...but Monks are bad at several points.  Like...chapter 2 they're bad just because it's not LFT and Power Sleeve doesn't show up until half-way through Chapter 3, so their damage is trash.

A few physical classes still manage to be alright in Chapter 2 granted.  Lancers are jumping for like...108 damage (double to triple Earth Slash damage).  Ninjas can physical attack for about 80 with daggers, and throw balls for about 64.  All while being 8 speed (Going on 9 speed).  And can buff this with a support ability.

Quote
And MA Ninja w/ Earth Slash alone is pretty okay, you don't really need to master Punch Art at all

Is it though?  Like...I'd hazard a guess that Throw outdamages Earth Slash...certainly throughout Chapter 2, and probably during a decent chunk of Chapter 3 (I'd have to run the numbers).  And like...it's pretty similar range (6 range; 7 with Battle Boots.  But not height or line restricted).

Like...yeah, sometimes you'll chip two people with Earth Slash.  Have a cookie for that.  But maybe your Ninja should go equip a useful skillset that does something your class doesn't already do...like Item for Phoenix Down, or Time Magic for Haste.

Quote
Remember that Koutetsu is 2 range and Earth Slash is 8 range, too. It kind of evens out, and Koutetsu looks especially worse when the still-common Bolt in C2 has 5 range - at least in some situations the extra aoe and ranged chip on Earth Slash can be relevant.

Uhh...Koutetsu totally has better AoE, more likely to catch multple enemies at once when compared to Earth Slash.  Like...yeah, the range on Earth Slash is arguably a bigger deal because you can stay safer.  But Koutetsu is pretty good at AoE.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 16, 2015, 07:26:38 AM
I do think your levels are erring slightly on the low side for what it's worth. You're proposing that we gain only 5 levels over the course of chapter 3, so that's... 45 Exp a battle per PC (assuming no randoms, which isn't really reasonable given the crossing of Zeklaus Desert thrice and potential backtracks for equipment), in a chapter where average enemy level is like 26 (i.e. every action which targets an enemy should be netting you almost a quarter of a level, so the average battle ends in 1-2 rounds? It's possible (certainly fights like Wiegraf 2 and the roof generally will, the other 3 assassination maps are possible but depends somewhat on playstyle) but that's certainly a very offence-oriented setup. I also don't really agree that most SCCs don't hit Level 18 for Riovanes, certainly most of the lower-offence ones do. Of course, ones which high-end play most closely resemble (Summoners!) typically don't, which may be the relevant point here.

Generally I'm okay with erring low for levels anyway (if someone needs extra levels to perform, obviously they look worse than someone who doesn't), but generally you should acknowledge the range of level possible for any point in the game. Party composition, how much backtracking one does, and RNG luck with randoms all have a significant effect. Same with JP, which has extra variables like propositions to consider: does the player do them? Just the ones on adjacent blue dots? Does he/she know how to get the most JP out of them (something I don't even know, but apparently this is documented now). Basically, if a class or setup is "just missing" a speed checkpoint or JP checkpoint, you should try to acknowledge that, and vice versa: if a class or setup is just over one of your checkpoints, acknowledge they may fall short.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 16, 2015, 07:44:34 AM
Quote
Is it though?  Like...I'd hazard a guess that Throw outdamages Earth Slash...certainly throughout Chapter 2, and probably during a decent chunk of Chapter 3 (I'd have to run the numbers).  And like...it's pretty similar range (6 range; 7 with Battle Boots.  But not height or line restricted).

Idly running numbers:

Early C3: Assumed base 7 PA, 8 Speed

Earth Slash using PA+3 (Twist Headband and one of Judo Outfit or Diamond Armlet): 75
Throw Ball using Green Beret: 72

Other stuff exists but is more pricy. So yeah, similar.

Orbonne checkpoints: Assumed base 8 PA, 8 Speed

Earth Slash using PA+4: 108
Throw Ball using Green Beret: Still 72

This is where Earth Slash starts putting in a meaningful advantage. Quadratic PA formula makes this the best possible case for using a Bracer... in fairness, you can buy four Slashers with that money.

Earth Slash using PA+7: 154
Throw Slasher with Sp+2: 156 (144 with Germinas Boots for max range)

So that's actually fairly comparable, though obviously the cost of thrown Slashers will catch up with you in a big way if you use this often.


Generally I do think Earth Slash is a decent push from mid C3 on (I find thrown axes a bit overcosted, and balls don't really keep up once you have Power Sleeve) but yeah other skillsets do compete as mentioned. The more other skills you can pick up (Wave Fist for the extra 13-17% damage, Chakra, Revive) the better Punch Art looks, but there's some lost time of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2015, 08:47:20 AM
Quote
I do think your levels are erring slightly on the low side for what it's worth. You're proposing that we gain only 5 levels over the course of chapter 3, so that's... 45 Exp a battle per PC (assuming no randoms, which isn't really reasonable given the crossing of Zeklaus Desert thrice and potential backtracks for equipment), in a chapter where average enemy level is like 26 (i.e. every action which targets an enemy should be netting you almost a quarter of a level, so the average battle ends in 1-2 rounds?

Mmm...maybe I should go for something more organic and assume all battles take 3 rounds (except for obvious assassination missions like Roof and Wiegraf 2).

Quote
The more other skills you can pick up (Wave Fist for the extra 13-17% damage, Chakra, Revive) the better Punch Art looks

Oh well for sure--the point of Punch Art to me is variety.  Like...it's a mild downgrade from item in terms of healing, but it has damage moves.  It's a big downgrade from options like Jump, but it has healing and revival.

But this still leaves me skeptical about the "learn only Earth Slash, it'll be fine" plan.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 16, 2015, 12:53:19 PM
Mmm...maybe I should go for something more organic and assume all battles take 3 rounds (except for obvious assassination missions like Roof and Wiegraf 2).

I in no way want anyone to actually do this, but this statement pushed the methodology part of my brain that went "Well we have all these studies of "regular" play throughs in LPs, I wonder what the data in a meta analysis shows your actual average level is."

But fuck that data gathering exercise.  I am dead certain you are both estimating way under what regular gamers end game levels are even as you try to take into account that you are better than average and tend to favour super efficient play.

My knee jerk is that you want to take SCCs as a point of reference here.  Not because they are a great data point for average plays, but the SCC rules are a pretty damn good reflection of a moment in time where FFT was a wonderful new mystery to people and your "average" player was fairly decently represented.  My knee jerk was to say 3/4 of the level "caps" of the challenge would be your target, but even that I am sure over targets it.  2/3 is a bit more in line with what I think of as "average"  (which is also about 10 levels a chapter, a touch lower in Chapter 1).

From a player psychology perspective I think you both tend to underestimate how even knowledgable players will get trapped in a completionist mindset and try to get stuff on the way up a tree that they don't need and actually slows down their progression.  "If I just stick around in Squire a little longer I can get Move +1 after JP Up which will be really good, Oh and maybe I should get accumulate too?"  Repeat for half the classes on the way.

Not that this should really impact the actual root assessment at play here of what is most powerful though...
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 16, 2015, 04:22:15 PM
Quote
My knee jerk is that you want to take SCCs as a point of reference here.  Not because they are a great data point for average plays, but the SCC rules are a pretty damn good reflection of a moment in time where FFT was a wonderful new mystery to people and your "average" player was fairly decently represented.  My knee jerk was to say 3/4 of the level "caps" of the challenge would be your target, but even that I am sure over targets it.  2/3 is a bit more in line with what I think of as "average"

The SCC level caps?  Nah, they've always been ridiculous.  2/3 of the level cap...well the chapter 1 level cap is 20, so that's 13.  I literally don't think I've ever hit 13 in Chapter 1 or seen anyone hit that.  It exists so that you can unlock Mime in Chapter 1 without going over the level cap.


Side note about SCC levels...in terms of only mage SCCs being level 15ish at Orbonne checkpoint...I'm not sure that's true.  I definitely know that my Samurai were all sub level 18 for Velius.  Pretty sure most of my Squires were sub level 18 as well (with Ramza well over 18 because lol ubersquire).  The really low-level SCCs like Time Mage are like...level 13 for Velius, and level 15-16 by Bethla Garison.  I am perfectly aware that people don't go Time Mage levels of low level.


Hmm...ok, fishing around for an FAQ that has levels...there aren't many.  Here's one I found.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/ps/197339-final-fantasy-tactics/faqs/55901

I'll assume 3 actions, two hitting enemies, one hitting allies, one of the ones hitting enemies kills.


Gariland Magic City doesn't count because you probably recruit fresh generics after that anyway.

Mandalia Plains--level 1 enemies
Sweegy--party level enemiess
Dorter--level 3 enemies
Sand rats--level 3 enemies
Thieves' Fort--level 5 enemies
Lenalia--Level 6 enemies
Fovoham--Level 7 enemies
Zeakden--Level 8 enemies

Running this through a spreadsheet (assuming three turns per fight) I get level 4 at the end of Zeakden.  (Level 2 at the Sand Rat checkpoint).

There is a mild complication to mention here, though--you probably have five generics.  In early chapters the game only gives you room for 4, so one of them isn't gaining JP and exp.

Anyhow...chapter 2

Dorter - 10
Araguay - (party level right?)
Zirekile - 9
Zaland - 12
Bariaus - 13
Zigolis - (party level?)
Goug - 13.5
Bariaus Valley - 15
Golgorand - 15
Lionel - 15
Queklain - ?? (the FAQ maker doesn't know...I think Elfboy's got a stat topic somehwere with this info)

Anyway, I'm getting level 9 (almost 10) by the end of the chapter.  Level 7 at the meeting at lionel castle.

Quote
"Well we have all these studies of "regular" play throughs in LPs, I wonder what the data in a meta analysis shows your actual average level is."

Oh yeah, watched one of those recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ_t1u3qAYc

Clearly 99 in Chapter 2.  Looks like he level-up-downed a fair bit too, because Ramza won't normally have 50 PA as a Knight at level 99.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 16, 2015, 05:08:33 PM
Queklain is Level 20.


To be clear, I think 15 for Orbonne is reasonable enough, it was 15 for Riovanes that I was questioning (beyond the lowest-level classes).


That said, no way is Time Mage 13 for Velius. Time Mage needs to hit Level 12 just to start casting Meteor, something they do in chapter 2. (Everything before Meteor involves lots of Haste and staff whacks so they actually gain large amounts of Exp early). Now, they finish battles in such a small number of actions after Meteor that they probably aren't 18 by the end of C3, that I'll grant, but they should be ~16 just based on getting one level every four battles post-Meteor (which sounds right to me).

Samurai/Squire I'm both really skeptical about and I'm certain I wasn't that low myself (despite not grinding), but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Keep in mind that if I recall your playstyle right, you tended to reset if you got in randoms so right there that's a fair bit of potential lost Exp, especially for Samurai which will absolutely backtrack for Kiyomori post-Yardow thus having 7 potential randoms (~2.3 on average? They're 1/3 chance, right?) in chapter 3.


Hmm, that makes me want to put this together...


List of potential randoms, for reference:
Chapter 1:
5 unavoidable (Mandalia, Sweegy, Mandalia, Mandalia, Mandalia)
1 if we backtrack for Silk Robe/Chain Vest
2 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Mithril Sword, Silver Bow, heavy equip upgrades, etc., after Miluda

Chapter 2:
4 if we backtrack for the first spear and/or the Ice Bow
3 if we backtrack for the Triangle Hat, Rainbow Staff, Power Wrist, and/or sticks instead of waiting for after Zaland
4 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Coral Swords before Zaland and Bariaus Hill [very unlikely]
2 if we backtrack for Green Berets and Wizard Robes before Zigolis and Goug
4 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for katanas and balls
1 if we backtrack for Brigandine, Wizard Staff, and/or Bizen Boat
1 unavoidable (Bariaus Valley)
10 if we backtrack for Cross Helmets [extremely unlikly!]

Chapter 3:
4 if we backtrack for various new weapons at chapter start (sword, spear, bow) instead of waiting until after Goland
3 unavoidable (Zeklaus x3)
8 if we backtrack for Mithril Guns [unlikely]
2 if we backtrack for Platinum Sword and +30 heavy armour HP after Yardow
2 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Ninja Edge and Kiyomori

Chapter 4:
12 unavoidable (Yuguo, Grog, Finath, Bed, Finath, Dolbodar, Zirekile, Araguay, Sweegy, Mandalia, Mandalia, Sweegy)
Plus a bunch more if we do the Beowulf sidequest, don't feel like counting that up.


I think how much backtracking one does is open to player choice, though I'd typically rather not do any backtracks that involve 5+ battles at least, and a few more in there are certainly questionable too. Some obviously depend on the party contribution; the first backtrack of chapter 2 is a no-brainer if you plan on running a Lancer in the first half of the chapter, but if you aren't you will probably skip it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 17, 2015, 04:42:44 PM
Quote
That said, no way is Time Mage 13 for Velius. Time Mage needs to hit Level 12 just to start casting Meteor, something they do in chapter 2.

Hmmm...I definitely remember not having Meteor for Golgorand, although I know some people get it earlier.  I also remember being something like 16 for Bethla Garrison, but that doesn't rule out being like...14 for Velius instead of 13.



Anway, random twist I thought of inspired by MOBAs is a drafting format.  It's not necessarily a good measure of class quality (since, for example, Priest will get picked highly just for Raise, usually after the other team drafts Chemist).

The format goes something like...

Team 1 bans a class
Team 2 bans a class
Team 1 picks a class
Team 2 picks two classes
(alternate picking two classes).

And then they compete--in this case I guess compete to have the overall more powerful FFT party for beating the single player.

Since Team 1 gets the first pick after the ban phase, they'll usually look to ban the third most powerful class (probably Wizard?)

Team 2 I think is going to ban calc damn near 100% of the time.

Team 1 first picks Summoner

Team 2...with Wizard banned I think they need to grab Time Mage.  Short Charge becomes the premium support in the absence of Wizard and Calc.  And...for the other pick...Squire or Chemist.  I think Chemist actually--since Wizard and Summoner are gone as options, the only busted thing that's accessible early is Auto-Potion, and Time Mage has a better endgame than Summoner, and you want the better revival.

Team1...has to pick up Priest, or risk the other team going Pirest+Monk and just locking out revival.  For the other pick...Squire is just so good.  It's going to dictate a lot of the picks for the remainder of the draft, where Team 2 will not want to grab lategame stuff.

Team 2...Ninja's still open, and is JP-light.  Grab that.  And...Oracle operates alright on low JP.  (Also, opens up the potential of Move MP-Up and MP Switch combo).

Team 1...the strategy from here is probably to draft some stuff that the other team wants, so...like...inexpensive JP dips.  Then again...none of the JP dips are terribly high value at this point, and it's possible the other team will try to steal some lategame.  I think team 1 wants to lock in Samurai as one of their picks here.  For the other pick...I dunno, maybe Monk?  Without Gained JP Up, team 1 probably isn't investing in Lancer, but might want Martial Arts.

Team 2...doesn't necessarily need anything right now.  It's probably going to play a lot like a Time Mage SCC with Auto Potion and Phoenix Down and maybe a Ninja to haste.  Thief for Move+2 is...eh, if there's a Ninja the Ninja is probably going to get Teleport from spillover; doesn't really need Move+2.  Although what this does do is deny Move+2 to the enemy team, who will then be stuck on Move+1 unless they go for Bard.  This would also cripple their Samurai pick, since Draw Out is a lot worse with low movement.  So...probably picking up Thief...is Mediator worth-it?  Ehhh...Mediator is a pile of lategame.  Then again, it's lategame that can be used without JP, and it's also probably worthwhile to deny lategame to the other team.  On the third hand, I actually feel like what this party needs is more earlygame so...Knight?  Knight is like...double the damage of any Chapter 1 class Team 2 has picked up so far.  Weapon Guard is nice.  Equip Shield might be even better if the plan is to grind Auto Potion pretty early--remember Team 2 doesn't have Squire so the earlygame Support ability isn't locked in.  Ooh, jumping back to the Mediator pick, one thing it would do is just...deny guns.  Team 1 would never be able to use guns.  OK, I think I like Knight/Mediator here.

Team 1...probably breathes a sign of relief and takes Thief, securing a lategame movement.  And then...probably Geomancer?  Denies Attack Up to the enemy Ninja, Attack Up Monk is a thing that they can use.  They don't have teleport or Wizards so Geomancer with Draw Out might be a real consideration...although honestly it'll usually be Summoner with Draw Out.  The 4 movement for a team that is lacking teleport is probably relevant, though.

Team 2...with Attack Up and Martial Arts out of the pool, I think Archer is now a must-pick to have a support for the Ninja.  Charge works decently well with guns anyway, so the team isn't exactly crying about this.  And then it's just a question of what late-game class Team 2 wants to deny Team 1.  Lancer is the best of them, and Team 2's Ninja doesn't really have a secondary yet, so probably that.  Bard is a consideration, though, because Angel Song is pretty good in a party that's dropping Meteors.  But on the other hand, Bard does very little for the enemy team, cause they've got Half-of MP anyway.  I think Archer/Lancer here.

Team 1...picks Dancer Bard.

Team 2...picks Mime.




So...the final drafted teams ended up with...

Banned: Wizard/Calc

Team 1: Summoner, Squire, Priest, Samurai, Monk, Thief, Geomancer, Bard, Dancer

Team 2: Time Mage, Chemist, Ninja, Oracle, Knight, Mediator, Archer, Lancer, Mime

Hmm...team 1 is going to have the stronger earlygame off the back of Summoner, I think.  The lategame probably goes to team 2--although the lack of Gained JP Up slows them down from getting there.  Hasting physical classes and gun users while having Auto Potion still sounds like a pretty good plan, though.  I think Team 2 ended up a bit stronger overall.

Were there any errors in drafting...?  Hmm...Monk probably got drafted too early; that could have been...something more impactful, maybe Mediator for more Summon damage.  Lancer may have gotten drafted too late.

Anyway, just a thought experiment; might try a few more drafts with different starting bans to see how that shakes things up.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 17, 2015, 06:37:47 PM
Alright, another draft...let's say Team 1 assumes this is going to be a normal draft, bans Wizard because it's the 3rd best pick, and then team 2 is like "you know what, we're gonna be weird, and not ban calculator."  Team 2 is obviously going to deny Squire to team 1 (slow down that calc as much as possible).  I think they just want to dominate the earlygame, so ban Squire, pick Chemist/Summoner.

Team 1: ban Wizard

Team 2: ban Squire

Team 1: Do they even go for Calculator at this point?  Yeah, I think they still do.  The alternative is...what, pick summoner and let the enemy team have Chemist AND Calc?  Ew.  Pick Calc.

Team 2: Chemist Summoner.  The earliest of games to ever earlygame.

Team 1: Basically locked into picking Priest here, or risk being denied revival.  And then...Time Mage; no reason to let the enemy team have Short Charge summons.

Team 2: Probably Oracle, has earlygame applications; is mathskillable.  And then...fuck it, this team's game plan is to be way better in the earlygame right?  So...I'm non-sarcastically eyeing Knight right now.  Like...the enemy team already has Teleport as an option, don't care if they get Thief.  We're getting blown out once Mathskill is a thing, so Mediator is a super irrelevant class.  Ninja...if the enemy team picks it, it would really only be to deny it to us.  Lategame...yeah, neither team has Squire, neither team is really fishing for lategame.  So...Oracle + Knight then?

Team 1: There's nothing left that this team considers relevant.  Nothing else earlygame enough to make grinding to Calc more comfortable.  Thief to make sure the enemy team never gets a movement ability at all.  And that stops any risk of the enemy team going Mediator+Thief for Chantages.  And then...so far this team has Calc, Time Mage, Priest?  Maybe Lancer, just for a class to haste and heal while grinding to calc.  Lancers have this power period in Chapter 2-3, so that's convenient.  Thief/Lancer.

Team 2: Hmm...obviously the enemy team is going to value Ninjas pretty low.  But do we even want Ninja?  Like...all the movement abilities have been cut off from us.  The plan is to be way better in the earlygame, and this plan doesn't mesh well with grinding to Ninja.  I think Mediator is a good pick here, as it denies gun usage to the enemy team.  (Also, guns are pretty good when you have no move).  BARD FOR MOVE+3?? lol jk Bards suck.  I mean...ok, fine Ninja, cause nothing else is really jumping out to me as valuable.  We have no move, so Draw Out is very mediocre.  Mediator/Ninja.

Team 1: I...actually think they pick Bard here.  Good for grinding calc.  Deny Move+3 from ever being an option.  What else can they pick to just fuck over the enemy team (bearing in mind that it'll get ignored while grinding to calc).  Geomancer is a consideration--starve them of movement...wait no, they have Ninja already, picking Geo does jack shit.  I think Samurai is still not going to do much for them; super short range.  Monk is maybe a slightly better deny, but it still cries without movement.  Oooh, actually, you know what they can use without movement?  Dance.  I actually think that might be the pick.  Bard/Dancer, let's go.

Team 2: Ok, so what's even left at this point...Archer, Samurai, Monk, Geomancer, lolmime.  Archer fits into the game plan a little bit; some Charge gunners.  Do we need any help with our lategame?  Eh, we have Summoner, Ninja, Chemist, Oracle, Mediator--as much as we've been ignoring lategame, that's plenty of power, and we're gonna lose the lategame anyway.  So...Samurai's off the table--the no move abilities kind-of just kill it.  Nobody has Gained JP Up, so setting Martial Arts while you train to Ninja is actually pretty reasonable.  I think that's a pick.  Last pick is between Geo and Archer.  Mmm...we have a lot of gunners, so Charge is actually pretty relevant.  Martial Arts fills the same Niche as Attack Up on a Ninja, whereas Charge does something different.  Geos provide +1 move, but are we actually going to use it?  The mages are probably just as happy on Summoner/Oracle most of the time, especially without Gained JP Up, they probably don't want to leave.  Any physical types can go to Ninja.  I guess it depends if we actually plan on running a Ninja at all, though.  If not, Geo does more for this party.  I think the answer is that we will, though.  Summoners without Short Charge or Magic Attack Up don't smash the game that hard, so eventually we will want Ninja.  Also...what support ability are we using on the mages?  I...think it might be Equip Shield, from spillover, which reduces the appeal of Geos some.  Probably switch between that and Defense Up once we know both.  So...ok, Monk/Archer.

Team 1: Geomancer, Samurai.

Team 2: Mime.




So...the final drafted teams...

Banned: Wizard/Squire

Team 1: Calculator, Time Mage, Priest, Thief, Lancer, Bard, Dancer, Geomancer, Samurai

Team 2: Summoner, Chemist, Oracle, Knight, Mediator, Ninja, Monk, Archer, Mime

Pretty weird draft.  Once they had Calc, Team 1 could kind-of just dedicate themselves to fucking over team 2.  Team 2 certainly did some of that back, screwing over the earlygame of team 1 as much as possible.  Team 1 is bad Chapter 1.  Like...not "they're going to reset" bad--Time Mage SCCs can clear Chapter 1 without reset.  But pretty bad.  Get Haste, and most of the party rush to Holy.  Probably send one character down the road to Lancer so that there's someone to haste come the start of Chapter 2.

Chapter 2 they're fine; lots of people with Holy; one Lancer to clean up.  Something like that.  Team 2 is still a lot stronger in Chapter 2--Auto Potion and Summon baby.

Chapter 3...the lack of Gained JP Up means Mathskill is not online until part-way through this chapter, and the party is going to get weaker while training in Calc.  Then roughly half way through the chapter the first Mathskiller comes online.  Even one Mathskiller knowing only CT and 5 makes all the difference, probably puts them slightly better in party power level.  And half way through Chapter 3 is pretty much the mid point of the game.

Chapter 4...obviously the Math Skill team sails through.  The summoner team should do ok, but not as spectacular.  There's no haste or movement buffs for Ninjas.  Summoners don't have magic attack up or short charge, so their lack of scaling is hurting a bit by this chapter.  But like...Auto Potion can still carry them just fine.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 17, 2015, 08:34:36 PM
For levels: On one hand, I definitely agree that even for a 2nd or 3rd FFT playthrough, levels are going to be higher than described by MC initially.  (I certainly was the type that'd tool around attacking myself a bit toward the end of battles because why not.)  On the other hand, I suppose relative rankings are more *relevant* if you're keeping grinding low because the game is more difficult.  (Same issue as why I'd basically ignore certain uber-broken "you win" strats, 'sup Calc.)

MC: Nice idea with the MOBA-esque draft, except...  I have to think that allowing multiples of a class is going to render a lot of the draft nearly irrelevant.  e.g. in Draft 1, if playing "competitively", Team A is probably going to run something like 4x Summoners w/ White Magic, and maybe one Geomancer or Samurai for giggles.  Draft 2 Team B can also credibly run 3-5 Summoners while building up 0-2 Ninjas w/ Item or whatever.  As a comment from the peanut gallery, I'd think a draft with a Four Job Fiesta-esque requirement of "maximum of 1 person in each class" (barring the very early game for training up JP of course) would be interesting.  It still wouldn't fix the issue of "4 people running Summon as their secondary" but it'd make the lower tier picks more relevant.  I guess you could also use a "no Secondary / no imported RSM" requirement, but that'd be less fun.  There's also somehow limit doubling up on secondaries too much...  not sure how that'd be specified, but oh well.

Anyway, with my own definition for my own hypothetical draft...  this makes certain classes that have useful skills that you don't actually want to deploy after getting those skills much worse, since you're now locking yourself into running a Squire / Thief / etc. forever, including at end game.  This also indirectly makes Knight worse, since Knight would really like a Move +X ability but that'd require drafting a Bard/Thief/Squire, which are all  questionable picks.  I also think that if we're assuming just 1 ban per team, Wizard seems a little too replaceable?  They do damage, sure, but lots of classes do damage.  I'd be more interesting as Team 1 at banning out healing options if I think I'm getting Summoner, which nicely comes with Moogle & Fairy.  So I'd be inclined to ban Chemist instead (Auto-Potion is kind of Auto-Win) to try and force an early Priest pick out of Team B.  So sure, Team B grabs Wizard & Priest, Team A grabs Ninja & Time Mage, Team B grabs...  hmm, not sure, lots of options.  Monk is really not THAT bad IMHO especially as a long-term class to run that also has some backup utility for others, and also denies it to A's Ninja, and also soft-locks A out of revival, so sure, Monk & Samurai.  Team A can credibly round out their team with some combination of Oracle/Lancer/Geo/Dancer..  probably Oracle / Geo since Geo makes a good carrier class for all these fine magical secondaries Team A has.  (Oracle also has the Move-MP Up / MP-Switch combo for very lategame lulz, but that's just a bonus.)  Team B has Lancer/Dancer/Mediator to round itself out...  Team B has quite the chippy combination here, they don't really need to dive in at all assuming Monk is mostly spamming Earth Slash, and both Lancer & Mediator good damage from a distance, and Dancer doesn't even care.  Mediator is not actually wholly ridiculous here since Monk damage formula likes High Brave IIRC and hey, better proc rates on Blade Grasp or something, so maybe that.

End up with:
Banned: Calc / Chemist
Team A: Summoner, Ninja, Time Mage, Oracle, Geomancer
Team B: Wizard, Priest, Monk, Samurai, Mediator

Just my 2 cents of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 12:17:05 AM
MC: Nice idea with the MOBA-esque draft, except...  I have to think that allowing multiples of a class is going to render a lot of the draft nearly irrelevant.  e.g. in Draft 1, if playing "competitively", Team A is probably going to run something like 4x Summoners w/ White Magic, and maybe one Geomancer or Samurai for giggles.  Draft 2 Team B can also credibly run 3-5 Summoners while building up 0-2 Ninjas w/ Item or whatever.  As a comment from the peanut gallery, I'd think a draft with a Four Job Fiesta-esque requirement of "maximum of 1 person in each class" (barring the very early game for training up JP of course) would be interesting.  It still wouldn't fix the issue of "4 people running Summon as their secondary" but it'd make the lower tier picks more relevant.  I guess you could also use a "no Secondary / no imported RSM" requirement, but that'd be less fun.

If I was doing an interesting challenge playthrough, I think your method sounds like more fun and better design, yeah.

Two problems, though.

1. The game actually encourages piling a lot of characters into one class, thanks to spillover JP.
2. The way that draft format works encourages having one fantastic skillset (like Summon) and then drafting four carriers.  The way actual FFT works is much closer to wanting one fantastic carrier and four skillsets.

So like...as a measure of FFT balance, I don't think your draft format is as effective.  (But yes, it is better game design if someone actually wanted to play one of these).



I do think you're right about banning Chemist and not Wizard being the better draft strategy, though (in either draft format).  More on that in a moment....



So...while I was out of the house I went through a couple of "what if X was drafted differently" scenarios.

First scenario...what if team 1 banned Summoner instead of Wizard...?

Team 1: ban Summoner
Team 2: ban Calculator

Pretty sure Calc has to be the team 2 ban this time.  With Summon not an option, Team 2 would actually need to pick between earlygame and lategame with their first two picks, whereas Summon covers both.

Team 1: the first pick here is interesting, and I think the first pick is Chemist.  With both Summoner and Calculator gone...what are you using that Wizard MA for exactly?  Meteor?  Draw Out?  Pick: Chemist

Team 2: So...Wizard + Time Mage is actually very tempting here.  Time Mage SCC kind of murders from the moment it gets Meteor, and Wizard kind of murders everything before that time.  There's a risk of getting locked out of revival, but is the enemy team really going to pick Chemist, Monk, Priest for their first three classes?  Really?  Time Mage/Wizard.

Team 1: So like...this team is looking for synergies with Chemist.  Auto Potion covers survivability, so usually damage is what you want.  I think Priest is a good pickup; Holy deals damage, and you lock the enemy team out of good revival.  (Monk has trash revival, granted).  I also think the way the draft is going, you don't want the enemy team to have Squire.  Time Mage is a JP hog.  They actually have the perfect two classes to pair with Samurai, which is also a JP hog.  Priest/Squire.

Team 2: Alright, so...the enemy team is squeezing us out of revival.  Should we pick up Monk...?  Let's see...Revive is a 500 JP no vertical tolerance move that can miss.  Chakra...also has no vertical tolerance.  Ehh....  Especially since we won't have Gained JP Up this isn't exciting.  Alright, so the enemy team has durability, and is looking to pick up damage.  Maybe take that away from them.  Ninja.  And hmm...Oracle?  They don't have a Life Drain/Demi type spell yet!  And Oracles don't need a lot of JP, so aren't screwed by missing Squire.  Also, by far the highest MA class left, so their Holy damage will suffer.  Oracle/Ninja

Team 1: Needs damage.  They have the Gained JP Up to support Samurai, and Samurai is damage.  So....that's a good pickup.  (Also, as much as the enemy team doesn't have gained JP Up, Teleport MAU Draw Out is something we really don't want them to have, and Blade Grasp is relevant to them since they don't have Auto Potion).  And then...time to be a dick and pick Monk to deny revive?  Sure, let's be a dick!  Samurai/Monk

Team 2: You know, this team is pretty happy mostly sticking with TM/Wizard.  The enemy team's plan is Samurai you say?  And maybe Monk?  We can be a dick back about that.  Thief to deny them Move+2 and...Geomancer to deny them a 4 move class (other than Squire).  Also, Geomancer would be their highest MA class at this point, since we have Oracle/Wizard/Time Mage and Summoner is banned, so...Geo actually does fuck them out of having a good carrier.  Oh, and since they can't go Ninja, denying them Attack Up Monks is kinda relevant too.  We do get a little bit out of this besides screwing our opponent of course; Attack Up and Move+2 for the Ninjas.  Thief/Geomancer

Team 1: Um...this is actually kind-of worrisome on the damage front.  I think grab Lancer as a high damage class.  After Chapter 2 we can Equip Spear on Monk or Priest and both of those are reasonable, so I don't think we need to freak out and get Archer as a chibi-Geomancer replacement.  I think this party could really use Dance, though.  Dance is good offense, and doesn't rely on a good carrier or good movement.

Team 2: So like...not only does this team lack revival, the only form of healing so far is Oracle's Life Drain.  >_>.  I think this party should actually seriously consider Bard now.  And...this party actually really doesn't have a reaction ability for its mages.  The Ninja can use Abandon or Sunken State or whatever--no worries there.  But the mages?  Aren't using MP Switch, and given the lack of healing would much rather have a defensive reaction and not Counter Magic or Counter Flood....  Let's see...Arrow Guard is 450 JP...ew!  On a party that doesn't have Gained JP Up.  Ehh...Knight then for Weapon Guard.  What else is open...Oh, Mediator is still open.  Yeah, grab that actually.  And...ehh...screw Bard, Life Song sucks anyway.  Let's just get Weapon Guard.  Mediator/Knight

Team 1: Archer/Bard

Team 2: Mime







So the teams look like...

Team 1: Chemist, Priest, Squire, Samurai, Monk, Lancer, Dancer, Archer, Bard

Team 2: Wizard, Time Mage, Ninja, Oracle, Thief, Geomancer, Mediator, Knight

So...Team 2 definitely has the better Chapter 1.  Wizard kinda locks that.  Team 1 has the relative invincibility granted by Auto Potion and loads of revival.  But their offense is sketchy.  I actually think they go somewhat heavy on Dance, probably getting more than one Dancer.  Holy in assassination missions, of course.  Dance when defeating all enemies, cleaning up with...Jump or Draw Out or Holy.  In the lategame like Chapter 4, probably parts of Chapter 3, I think Team 1 does end up the stronger party.  Dance with Autopotion, revival (and teammates who deal damage).  Nukes that are still good enough for assassination missions.  I suspect Team 2 is better at more points in the game, though.  Also, team 2 managed to draft Mediator/Thief, so some slim (33% or less) chance of "poof chantages; now we're invincible too!"

Kind-of an amusing draft, since both parties ended up kinda gimped and lower power than a lot of previous drafts.

(Next up: I play around with banning Chemist).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 01:20:06 AM
So like...banning Wizard always seems to end up with the enemy team getting Chemist, and that's always a significant power point.

Banning Summoner means you can first pick Chemist, but it's easy to end up in a weird draft situation from there.

How about banning Chemist?

Team 1: ban Chemist

Team 2: ban Calculator

(This is a scenario where team 2 can realistically consider letting Team 1 have Calculator, but I'll come back to that).

Team 1: Pick Summoner

Team 2: Well...you really don't want Summoner to get paired with either Wizard or Time Mage; the synergy is pretty gross.  So...this is going to begin pretty similar to last draft.  Wizard/Time Mage

Team 1: And the reasoning is going to look pretty similar here; Squire helps summoner a lot, not having Squire hurts Time Mage a lot.  So Squire.  And Priest is premium revival now, so Priest.

Team 2: I think it's going to be Monk.  Unlike last draft, the enemy team doesn't have any massive holes in their offense that can be neutered with draft choices, so might as well get some revival.  And...get Ninja with that, cause we definitely want to use the Monk if we're picking it up this early, and it loses a lot without Ninja.  Picking Oracle doesn't really deny anything big to the enemy team this time.  We don't have Squire, so that makes Samurai pretty unappealing.  Monk/Ninja

Team 1: Mmm...well we have Summon, so Draw Out isn't that exciting.  Slight damage increase over Shiva/Ramuh in the lategame when the lack of Short Charge starts hurting?  Actually TBH that sounds worthwhile.  In fact, this party is lacking lategame right now; OK lock in Samurai.  Actually, know what else has really solid lategame?  Oracle.  It's going pretty late for its power-level; the enemy team probably wants it soon because it's functional on low JP...just a solid pick.  Oracle/Samurai

Team 2: A very similar situation where movement denial could be used to screw over a Samurai pick...but the enemy team already has Summoner, so honestly not really.  We're not that sad if the Ninjas have to use Teleport instead of Move+2.  Geomancer doesn't do too much for us right now; Ninja pairs better with Monk.  I think Mediator is a good pickup; MOAR DAMAGE.  Lancer doesn't hold a whole lot of value for either team right now.  Mmm...actually, the pick might still be Thief if we're picking up Mediator right now.  Potential for Chantage combo.  And Move+2 is still a reasonably nice pickup/deny.  Mediator/Thief

Team 1: Geomancer seems like a solid pickup here.  Has relevant use to this team for a Draw Out carrier, and just movement in general.  Geo is also potentially relevant to the enemy team through Attack up.  For the other class...Dancer as a training secondary for Samurai?  Eh...nah, Summon's just fine as a Samurai secondary.  Lancer?  Nah, don't really need it.  Knight?  Eh, sure, Weapon Guard's a small buff, but both parties want it.

Team 2: I mean...with summon, I don't think team 1 is going to get too excited over investments like dance or sing.  Without Gained JP Up, I don't think we're too excited about them either.  I guess Sing restores MP, but we're already leaning on Monk for revival.  So...Archer/Lancer?  Both are relevant for Ninjas.

Team 1: Bard/Dancer:

Team 2: Mime




Final drafts look like...

Team 1: Summoner, Priest, Squire, Oracle, Samurai, Geomancer, Knight, Dancer, Bard

Team 2: Time Mage, Wizard, Monk, Ninja, Mediator, Thief, Archer, Lancer, Mime

I think Team 1 has an edge early on.  SCC Wizards and SCC Summoners (which these are both kinda close to early on) are similar in power earlygame.  But if team 2 wants revival, it needs to run a non-mage (Monk) and train it for quite a while before it even learns revival (without the help of Gained JP Up).  Team 1 gets Raise for relatively low JP, by comparison.  Granted, Haste is nice, so that helps.  At some point, Short Charge Meteor happens, and that's a power spike that puts team 2 ahead.  Much later, Blade Grasp Draw Out Summoners will be a thing.  They won't match the damage or mobility of team 2, but they'll have Blade Grasp making them a lot tankier (not to mention, more likely to have shields, fairly likely to have Defense Up or Magic Defense Up).  I...think Team 2 might be better in the lategame though.  Yeah, team 1 is probably twice as durable, but team 2 has over double the damage, and much better mobility.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 18, 2015, 01:27:35 AM
Yeah a few tweaks like Snowfire suggests and drop this on LFT runs and you are in for some good war stories.  A fun thought exercise.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 18, 2015, 02:14:31 AM
Thinking about it more....   Team B in my post above doesn't have particularly inspiring Movement abilities (Move-HP up is FUNNY at least), so if we're including Ubersquire hype, I can see Ubersquire > Mediator as the final pick perhaps - get Move +1 early, and use Cheer Up for the Brave modification, and have Ubersquire Ramza w/ White Magic at end game, which is pretty decent even if there's a lull in C2-C3.  Could go either way.

I should add as well that I'd assume 4JF-esque assumptions of "until you 'unlock' a class, just use the other classes normally," if you're curious for why I considered Samurai a reasonably good pick.  I wouldn't require any class to be run before you can purchase items for it (e.g. Lancers in C1, Sams in C1-C2), so Samurai being a bit of a late bloomer isn't a huge concern, he/she is just another (your best earlygame unit) for awhile.  Obviously if you do force fast Sams then grabbing Monk as well becomes super-important so they're not stuck with no weapon.

MC, as far as "justification" for this as relevant to in-game performance, I think a lot of people just plain like variety in their teams, so forcing that variety seems legit.  Same reason people usually won't run 3+ of the same class in a Fire Emblem game even when that can technically make sense.  So...  fun-adjusted balance, if you will.  And certainly closer to a MOBA where you can't play multiple copies of your first pick!  I will say that it might be reasonable to limit an ability to being used on 3 PCs max, so you have 1 Summoner + 2x people with Summon set or something to keep things somewhat sane.

Amusingly enough, League of Legends currently has the "One For All" game mode running, which is basically competitive SCCs facing each other - each team forcibly gets 5 clones of the same champion, although you'll often build each one a bit differently, of course.  Anyway, the current Worlds championship has a bit of a similar issue with Picks/Bans as FFT does.  For the most part, the balance has been great - 71 unique champions! - but one strange thing is that blue side (=1st pick) has been advantaged in win rate, because red side is forced to spend 2 bans on Gangplank & Mordekaiser:
http://lol.esportspedia.com/wiki/2015_Season_World_Championship/Statistics/Champions
The issue is that it is widely perceived that Gangplank >>> Mordekaiser >> everyone else, so attempting to trade the two off is a bad plan (they'll take Gangplank).  Heck, maybe that's helped lead to the super champion diversity, that it's too risky to ever let the OP champs play.  It does mean that blue side gets 3 bans and red side gets 1 ban + 2 obligatories, though, so blue side gets to deny more comfort picks, which is why it's advantaged.  Lulu also does weird things as she's both safe (no hard counters to her), a flex-pick (can go in any lane), soft-counters certain popular picks, and enables certain team compositions that simply wouldn't work without her, but that's a bit of a different issue.

Anyway, what's that have to do with FFT?  The problem is the same here: Calc >>>  Summoner >>> everything else (well, assuming you are a fun-hating person like Tide willing to grind up Math skill in C1.).  OTOH, we're just making teams for fun here and there isn't the MOBA issue of "I know this champion really well but not this other one."  Anyway, if expanded to 2 bans per team, it'd still lead to the odd situation of blue side banning picks #4 & #5 and collecting #3 for free, whatever that is.  So instead...  I'm just going to assume an arbitrary system ban of Calculator for being negative fun, and a system ban of Summoner for being OP, and do another imaginary 1-ban 4JF-esque draft (so 4 bans in total, but not distributed weirdly).

Team A probably wants Chemist but won't get it, so ban...  either Wizard (then take Priest) or Time Mage (then take Wizard)?  Team B bans Chemist.  Let's assume the TM ban, so Team A first-picks Wizard.  Team B grabs Priest & Ninja.  A wants to get some sort of revival so Monk + ... probably Samurai again?  Has Wizard for powerful Draw Outs lategame.  Team B...  well, draft flattens out in power from here.  Geomancer is nice & safe, and perhaps Oracle again for boss-killing?  Team A is weirdly Physical-side heavy despite having Wizard, so Dancer unlock is actually comparatively easy, and Monk + Samurai mean that Brave manipulation is nice, so.  Mediator/Ubersquire (depending on rules set), and then Lancer or Dancer...  yeah I'm going to say Dancer here mostly for the lulz, vs. bosses they can at least use Black Magic or Draw Outs better than Lancer, and they do insta-win slow randoms fights.  This leaves Lancer for Team B.

4JF-esque (5 Job Fiesta?) Draft #2, SnowFire edition:
System bans: Calc, Summoner
Normal bans: Time Mage, Chemist
Team A: Wizard, Monk, Samurai, [Mediator/Ubersquire if allowed], Dancer
Team B: Priest, Ninja, Geomancer, Oracle, Lancer
Benched: [Vanila Squire, Knight, Archer, Thief, Bard, Mime]

But this mostly confirms some kneejerk other people rankings (barring less vanilla Squire hype with this rulset), so yeah, not too different.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 18, 2015, 03:12:29 AM
Curious as to what the stipulations and goals are for these drafts.  Speed?  Number of actions?  Fewest resets?  Vanilla FFT, right? 

If speed is valued... it's probably worth noting that the current no math speedrun routes lean heavily on Time Mage/Samurai.  They also use JP Scroll to insta-learn those skillsets - but the result is very strong.

Looking through the drafts so far... Time Mage vs Summoner seems to be a very pertinent question.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 04:24:20 AM
Quote
so if we're including Ubersquire hype, I can see Ubersquire > Mediator

Hmm...I mean, I think in mc-pickban, just counting Ubersquire as a squire is probably fine.  In Snowfire-pickban, Squire and Ubersquire should probably be considered different classes.  Otherwise you get Move+1 and Gained JP Up on all your characters, while also getting a damn good class out of the deal, which kind-of negates a lot of the drawbacks that the system is supposed to introduce for picking Squire.

Quote
I think a lot of people just plain like variety in their teams, so forcing that variety seems legit.  Same reason people usually won't run 3+ of the same class in a Fire Emblem game even when that can technically make sense.

I've totally run all three Pegasus Knights in Fire Emblem.  And...I mean, if you actually look at the FFT GameFAQs board, you get a lot of people who run multiples of a class (frequently multiples of Knight for some reason.  The FFT board is pretty bad at FFT >_>)

Looking at a random let's play...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRXva3zkt0U&index=21&list=PL816CCC5FD8202FDD

Two summoners in this...hilariously overlevelled Chapter 2 party.  (The summoners are Male, the female Geomancer attacks with an axe, and the Lancer tries to jump on someone with 90 CT.  Awww yeah!)

Skipping forward to another point at random:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qeFYNeOPgw&index=48&list=PL816CCC5FD8202FDD

Well...Agrias and Orlandu make up almost half the party, but hey look, 2/3 characters with Jump now!  And at least two Samurai (Ramza was a Samurai in the Chapter 2 fight; admitedly a Ninja now).

I dunno, it's FFT; people tend to fixate on jobs they like.  And the mechanics encourage this, through job levels making you gain JP faster when you fixate on a job, to stat growths that fit the job but are bad for other jobs, to spillover JP that encourages other characters to dip into that job.

I agree that there is a psychological tendency for people to want "one of everything"--I experienced that the first time I played Starcraft Brood War Online, where I built one of every Terran unit, and someone walked in with 30 Dragoons and wiped me out.  Starcraft is not a game that encourages "one of everything" gameplay; it encourages maybe two or three types of units that go together, and ignoring the rest of the tech tree until maybe later in the game.  FFT is similar.




Anyway, so I did have one more draft I wanted to run through.  So I mentioned before that on banning Chemist, team 2 could think about allowing Calc through.  I think they still want to do this by banning Squire--if you don't ban Squire, Calcs will pick Squire 100%.

Team 1: Ban Chemist

Team 2: Ban Squire


Team 1: Calculator.  You really are kind-of stuck into first picking it if it doesn't get banned.

Team 2: Wizard Summoner.  Obvious pick is obvious.

Team 1: So...this is the point where the Calc team largely starts drafting stuff to screw over the non-calc team.  Definitely picking Priest here to screw their revival.  I think Monk without Gained JP Up is not that threatening.  Ninja is a thought, though that would be almost purely a denial pick, cause you're probably not unlocking it.  Time Mage...thing is Wiz/Summoner don't really want Time Mage that much.  MAU Summon is usually better than Short Charge Summon.  That said, denying Teleport is a big deal (when used well can impact a fight at near Auto-Potion levels).  And Time Mage still has a lot of synergy with Wizard and Summoner.  You're pretty cool with both having Haste and MP Switch.  So...sure, Priest/Time Mage

Team 2: Well...they didn't block Monk, and they probably will block it soon, so...Monk.  And...ok, while they'll still get to use Yin Yang Magic through Math Skill, I don't want to just hand them Oracle, let them use YYM a full chapter early, and give them like...the second best physical attacker in Chapter 2 (a chapter where they'll be struggling and looking for a haste target).  Monk/Oracle

Team 1: Let's see...they have Monk, so make that less useful by picking Ninja.  Thief to deny any movement abilities is a real thought too; denies any possibility of them getting Chapter 3 Chantages as well, guaranteeing this party will be better at that point.  Ninja/Thief

Team 2: Well...Mediator is open.  I don't think it does much, though.  Really could not give a shit if the calc team gets Chantages in Chapter 3.  (Oh noes, you're much better than us in Chapter 3...around the same time you get Math skill).  Faith modifying also doesn't do much to close the gap between the power of Mathskill and the power of Ramuh.  I think Geo is a fairly relevant pickup for Monk.  In the absense of Ninja, Attack Up Monk is fine.  (Also, no move means Geo's 4 move matters).  Hmm...Mediator for a small amount of faith modifying, and guns still sounds like a bigger deal than like...Knight for Weapon Guard.  Mediator/Geomancer

Team 1: Basically Time Mages and Priests are a bunch of supporting type characters; would like some damage dealers to haste and heal.  Knight has good stats Chapter 1.  Lancer has good stats Chapter 2.  Archers literally for their bow damage...eh...no I'm pretty skeptical about that.  Samurai might be worth denying, but the enemy team currently has no Gained JP Up, and no movement abilities so...nahhhh.  Knight/Lancer.

Team 2: Ok, what's left?  Archer, which does almost nothing for either team really.  I guess it gives Arrow Guard if you grind for it, but this team isn't using Concentrate, and the other team probably is just going to ignore their Ninja pick.  Samurai, which does a little bit for this team.  Bard which...honestly is mostly used for MP restoration, but MAU Summon is not very MP hungry.  Technically it's Move+3 though!  This team actually wants that.  And Dancer, which probably neither team would unlock.  Thinking...Bard/Samurai. 

Team 1: Archer/Dancer

Team 2: Mime




So...teams are...

Team 1: Calculator, Time Mage, Priest, Ninja, Thief, Knight, Lancer, Archer, Dancer

Team 2: Summoner, Wizard, Monk, Oracle, Mediator, Geomancer, Bard, Samurai, Mime

Team 2...Wizard/Summoner is absolutely filthy, and you kind-of don't use most of the rest of your classes much.  Probably some faith buffing.  Likely one Monk for revival and MP battery.  Maybe a lategame Move+3 on Ramza or Blade Grasp or Draw Out.  Probably Move-MP Up from Oracle, actually; no real competition for that ability this game.  I will say this team lacks a reaciton ability (outside of the relatively lategame Blade Grasp)--maybe should have picked Archer or Knight.

Team 1: Hmm...you know, this actually has all the pieces for a rather good Ninja (Ninja, Thief, Archer, Lancer, Time Mage), particularly for Ninjas to party with mathskillers (Jump best skillset for that).  Although hmm...given the lack of gained JP Up, if you have four people training as mages and one physical character, the mages are going to gain JP about twice as fast...which means calc actually comes online before Ninja gets unlocked.  I think a physical character is still good (sometone to haste/heal) but like...it'll probably be a Knight in chapter 1, and a Lancer in chapter 2/3, and I'm not sure I'd want two just because of the loss of spillover JP.

Obviously Team 2 wins the earlygame.  Even mid chapter 3, a Ramuh from team 2's MAU Wizard with faith buffing will......quite possibly out-damage CT5Holy from a Time Mage.  It won't have the global range or the team heal.  But on the other hand...speed 6 is bad for calc (clocktick 17 is not useable).  Speed 7 you get to act first turn (clocktick 15), but second turn...you either waited after acting and it's clocktick 26 (useless) or you used your move and it's clocktick 29 (useless).  Speed 8 is useless (first turn on clocktick 13).  Speed 9 is useful if you have CT4 (first turn on clocktick 12) and you can chain turns (wait on spot, get second turn on clocktick 20; also hit by CT4).  There's a lot of conditionals there; you have to reach speed 9 (Priest with Green Beret and Sprint Shoes?  H Bag isn't until mid Chapter 4) and you have to know CT4 instead of CT5.  So...I dunno, Math Skill is still better, but given that your damage is probably lower, given that Calc's second turn is probably a bust...I think Wizard/Summoner hold on to the lead for a little while (until multiple Mathskillers are operational and not training in the Calc class...so...probably past the midpoint of the game).

I think this puts team 2 ahead overall, despite letting Calc through.  Likely could do a little better by drafting a cheap reaction ability (like Knight, which also denies some earlygame to the Calc team; probably Knight/Mediator instead of Mediator/Geomancer for their 5th/6th pick?)  Although...then again, Monk might just get everyone HP Restore through JP sharing, actually, and that's better than Weapon Guard.  So...nevermind. >_>

Quote
If speed is valued... it's probably worth noting that the current no math speedrun routes lean heavily on Time Mage/Samurai.  They also use JP Scroll to insta-learn those skillsets - but the result is very strong.

Yeah...I don't count JP scroll as legal.  Some skillsets are JP scrollable.  Some are not, and this means that some jobs that aren't scrollable are just arbitrarily garbage.  (Also speedruns care about animation time, which makes Summon bad...and yeah summon isn't bad.  FYI).

But yes, if you can instant-learn all of Time Mage, it's a crazy strong class.  It's held in check significantly by JP costs.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 04:10:03 PM
Ok, well, the payoff of this excercise is that we get an interesting set of lists from thought experiments.  Some classes go up or down depending on scenario.  So...here's roughly the pick order across all 7 drafts.  (Note: for snow's double ban system, I counted first pick as 2nd pick, 2nd pick as 3rd pick, etc, just because there's two extra classes not in the lineup).

Naturally this is going to overinflate some redundancies.  Like...Priest and Monk get picked high because revival is rare.  So like...heavy grain of salt with those.




Ca: B, 1, B, B, B, B, 1

Su: 1, 2, 1, B, 1, B, 2

Ch: 2, 2, B, 1, B, B, B

Wi: B, B, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2

Ti: 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, B, 2

Pr: 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3

Sq: 3, B, unpicked, 3, 3, 6, B

Ni: 4, 6, 3, 4, 4, 3, 5

Or: 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 5, 4

Mo: 5, 8, 4, 5, 4, 4, 4

Sa: 5, 9, 4, 5, 5, 4, 8

Me: 6, 6, 6, 8, 6, 6, 6

Th: 7, 5, unpicked, 6, 6, unpicked, 5

Ge: 7, 9, 5, 6, 7, 5, 6

Kn: 6, 4, unpicked, 8, 7, unpicked, 7

La: 8, 5, unpicked, 7, 8, 7, 7

Da: 9, 7, unpicked, 7, 9, 6, 9

Ar: 8, 8, unpicked, 9, 8, unpicked, 9

Ba: 9, 7, unpicked, 9, 9, unpicked, 8

Mi: 10, 10, unpicked, 10, 10, unpicked, 10



Here are the interesting points:

Yep, Calc should be top.

Chemist was being underrated a bit, and should actually probably be third.  The value of one team getting Auto Potion and Phoenix Down and the other team not is pretty crazy, and generally a bigger deal than Wizard stats and Wizard's earlygame smashing.  I think I just rarely feel tempted to grind for Auto-Potion in a normal game, because I'm usually not breaking the game as hard as I possibly can.  (I'll totally go for Math Skill though >_>).  But especially for mages there aren't really alternative durability boosting reactions.  Like...the competition under 1000 JP of grinding is...Arrow Guard, and Weapon Guard, and HP Save, and Regenerator, and Caution.

I think both Laggy and I had Squire higher than we should.  But like...even picking it third, this means you first picked something, the opponent picked two classes, you third pick Squire + something...your opponent picks two classes.  Yes, Squire is a big power spike to a lot of classes, but this is a pretty awkward draft moment where you've picked two real classes, and your opponent has picked four real classes.

Samurai has a decent amount of value...unless mathskill is legal, then it drops to like 8th/9th pick.  Monk can also dip due to math skill (although got a fair number of early picks just to deny revival).

Lancer...lower than I was expecting to put it.  Yeah, the problem for me was that usually one or both parties didn't have Gained JP Up, which typically meant it wasn't highly contested.  Interesting that it's a low pick for Snowfire as well (unpicked first round, last picked when there was an extra ban phase).  I'd definitely like to run numbers on this because I feel like the damage numbers tend to be higher than people expect.

Dancer...see?  It moved up above Bard and Archer!  >_>

Geomancer a bit higher than I was expecting--consistently moderately high pick in snowfire's format (which has emphasis on carriers), but also somewhat high on mine, where drafting might make a team short on carriers, or unable to access movement abilities.

Mediator is weirdly rock solid as a 6th pick.  By both me and Snowfire.  I don't even have an explanation for this.  Guns I guess?  Guns are kinda cool, but not like suuuuuuper OP amazing cool, just kinda cool.

Sure enough revival: Priest and Monk are both drafted earlier than they would normally be valued outside a draft format.

Oracle ended up damn close to being drafted higher than Ninja, and I actually rarely ended up thinking "oh that was a mistake to take Oracle so early", more just the nature of the draft format.  Often one team wouldn't have a good movement ability...but they'd have Oracle so Move-MP Up on everyone.  Or one team would be drafted out of Magic Attack Up and Short Charge...but hey, Defense Up is pretty cool right?  Or one team would not have Demi or Lich available, but manage to pick up Oracle for Life Drain.  Or one team would be a little too lategame focused and want a strong Chapter 2 class where Oracle has like...the second best physical.  Or one team would have Math Skill, meaning Oracle was in slightly higher demand.  (In particular, Oracle became higher pick than Ninja when Mathskill was on the table, usually lower pick otherwise).  Or a team wouldn't have a particularly high MA class for an option, but Oracle can equip a Rod and do a decent Wizard impression.  Oracle is just...often 2nd or 3rd best as an option, but 2nd or 3rd best at a looot of stuff.

Time Mage up two slots...yeah, draft format is pretty good for Time Mages.  Drafted out of Summon?  Take Time Mage!  Drafted out of Magic Attack Up?  Go for Short Charge.  (Admitedly, not as good as JP scroll glitch is to Time Mage >_>)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 05:15:33 PM
Actually...here's a question: how do people feel about Chemist at the #2 spot over Summoner?

I don't know how Snowfire feels about his drafts, but for me, I felt like Team 1 consistently lost the draft...except for that one time when I had Team 1 first ban Summoner, first pick Chemist.  And like...that team ended up with totally nonstandard offence (Dance, Draw Out, Jump, Holy, Monk), with jank for carriers (Monk, Archer, Priest being their three best carriers).

And...it's still probably the better draft, cause the other draft was kind-of like a Time Mage/Wizard SCC cross.  (So like...Time Mage with 50% more offence).  Whereas this team was like a Chemist SCC except with triple to quadruple the damage.  But...Chemist SCC is considered easier than Time Mage SCC so.... 

Seriously, though, even just Dance+Auto Potion sounds hilariously good (for non-assassination missions, obviously...although I guess Dancers with Equip Spear, Jump, and Auto Potion were an option for that draft, and that...sounds like it would stomp basically every fight in the game).  Summoner doesn't really have that same property, where you can combine it with half the classes and be amazing.  Like...even pairing Summoner with a class that has a strong reaction ability...Summoner/Samurai still has weaknesses (even though it's clearly a pretty damn good two-class pairing).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 06:22:14 PM
Little bit more thinking about defensive abilities.

The problem with defensive abilities, that aren't necessarily shown in draft formats, is that you may still have a weakest link.  If three people have Blade Grasp, and two don't, those two might die, crystallize, and you might lose.  By contrast, if three people have MAU Sumon, and two don't, the enemies are still going to die.

Granted, this applies more to Blade Grasp, where enemies know their hit rate, and will avoid attacking the BG target, than to Auto Potion, where the enemies are idiots and will all happily pile on to the Auto Potion target.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 18, 2015, 07:09:49 PM
It is a general truth about optimising durability in RPGs, and why it's so rarely worth it, though. Also why tank characters tend to be kinda weak in most RPGs prior to WoW/D&D4-style tanking made its way into the genre.

I feel like Summoner is better than Chemist, which probably comes down to "Summon is guaranteed to wreck fights, Auto-Potion fails 30% of the time" as well as some offence concerns. Some of the draft teams with like Chemist/(other stuff that isn't Wizard or Summoner) definitely have to be careful in C1 whereas Summoner + random scattershot of classes else can round you out into a mean team pretty easily. The worst Summoner draft team you created is probably "Summoner, Priest, Squire, Oracle, Samurai, Geomancer, Knight, Dancer, Bard" which uh is still Summoner with multiple great carrier options, Gained JP Up, revival access, Draw Out to pick up the slack late when you start feeling the lack of Short Charge. This isn't a team which struggles at all with any point in the game, compared to, say "Chemist, Priest, Squire, Samurai, Monk, Lancer, Dancer, Archer, Bard".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on October 18, 2015, 09:07:10 PM
Slight tangent, but WoW (and MMO style tanking in general) is not 4th Ed tanking. MOBA tanking would be more accurate, as that embraces the idea that the tank needs to be a legitimate threat in their own right either via possessing some actual damage, or other, ancillary effects that will ruin your day if they are allowed to run wild.

MMO tanking (including WoW) is based on the idea that the tank is LITERALLY the only one who can take a hit from any respectable mob without instantly dying.

People comparing 4th Ed to MMOs didn't really play MMOs. >_>
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 18, 2015, 09:22:30 PM
I'm not sure what you mean about needing to be a "legitimate threat"? If you mean they have to do damage or apply other negative effects, that's certainly not the case, either in D&D 4e or the various games I'm referring to here. In some cases they just increase/max out the probability of enemies to target them (either they're run by an AI which you can directly manipulate, particularly in video games, or you make it so that enemies attempting to ignore your tank take an accuracy/damage penalty, or can't move away from your tank, etc.).

It's true that I don't play MMOs myself so I was just going on hearsay here, but I've generally seen the popularity of proactive tanking of this time credited to WoW. Could obviously be a miscredit, though. <_<
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 18, 2015, 10:52:02 PM
It is a general truth about optimising durability in RPGs, and why it's so rarely worth it, though. Also why tank characters tend to be kinda weak in most RPGs prior to WoW/D&D4-style tanking made its way into the genre.

Yeah, for sure.

But...on the flip side, a unit with Auto Potion is not a "tank character" per se.  You don't actually sacrifice any damage to get a whole lot of durability.  In fact, you replace the reaction slot which...honestly you may not have even been using.

Well...ok, "not sacrificing damage" is a bit of a lie.  You spend extra time training in Chemist, so you'll be a little behind on JP you could be using to increase your damage, or instead of grinding in Chemist you could have been raising your faith.  Auto potion costs money, so you might be short a weapon or a Bracer.  And certainly in a draft format, first picking Chemist means sacrificing a non-negligible amount of damage.

I guess the question is at what point is more durability worth-it?  Snowfire and I both started drafting Chemist as more valuable than Wizard (Wizard generally representing a 30% to 60% damage increase, but needing to be paired with other damage classes, the same way Chemist needs to be paired with a class that deals damage).

OK, so I think we need to think about just how much durability we get from Auto Potion.  Let's say you have exactly 250 HP, and enemies are dealing exactly 100 damage and you have exactly 70 brave.  If you fail two auto potions in a row you die.  If you fail one, you might live if the next two happen.  Pulling out a spreadsheet it's...you will live about 10.5 turns on average.  Compared to 3 turns without auto potion.  So...roughly triple the durability?

Granted, Wizard needs to be paired with other classes that deal MA damage.  Chemist has to be paired with classes that deal damage.  Summoner doesn't really need shit; they do plenty of damage, and maintain relevancy throughout the game without help.  So...that arguably makes them a higher pick, yeah.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on October 18, 2015, 10:57:00 PM
Ah. Separate views of proactive tanking, basically.

I consider it kinda a two step progression.

MMO tanking was literally AI control (I have generated X threat, as long as no generates more, I will be attacked) and has existed since at least Evequest (I know it showed up in most games back then). I see 4th Ed as an evolution of that idea, where the tanks generally incentivize targeting them as opposed to literally forcing it.

But this is sidetracking real hard. Sorry. Poke me if you'd like to continue this talk >_>
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Excal on October 19, 2015, 12:00:30 AM
Alternatively, set up a side topic.  No real shortage of 'em, and the conversation is interesting.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 19, 2015, 12:28:59 AM
I don't mind this discussion here--I've been playing a fair bit of Heroes of the Storm recently, so I'm familiar with what Andrew is describing.  (I'm not familiar with WoW).  But yeah, a tactics tank with actual MOBA tanking properties would be things like it in Wild ARMs XF with Sentinel's ZOC Effect (reduce enemy movement) and Defender (take hits for allies) skills.  Sentinels actually are relevant tanks.





Anyway--there's one thing that bugs me about a draft/ban system and it's that similar but inferior skills get raised up more than they should.  EX: Chemist is banned or not available, now Priest becomes very important.  Summoner is banned or not available, now Time Mage is very important for Meteor.  One possible lens to handle this is category bans.

Some examples:

* ban of all revival abilities. (Phoenix Down, Raise, Raise 2, Reraise, Revive)

* ban of all 100% hit rate evade ignoring high damage MT abilities.  (Summon, Meteor, Draw Out, Earth Slash, most swordskills.  Not sure how to define "high damage", but intuitively Wiznaibus and Elemental don't count).

* ban Mathskill.

* ban of high end reaction abilities (Auto-Potion, Blade Grasp, Hammedo, Abandon, Sunken State, Damage Split).

And then just evaluate classes with various of these bans toggled on/off.  (Not sure if these are the ideal categories, but...something like these anyhow).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DjinnAndTonic on October 19, 2015, 02:21:09 AM
Been following the FFT talk, and honestly I would really like to see SnowFire/Elf/MC actually do concurrent runs of FFT based on this drafting process and have them compare times/turns used/levels or whatever metric to determine who 'wins' the most optimal FFT run. Preferably with some written progress reports or at least some screenshots or a stream.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 19, 2015, 04:29:43 AM
Ah. Separate views of proactive tanking, basically.

I consider it kinda a two step progression.

MMO tanking was literally AI control (I have generated X threat, as long as no generates more, I will be attacked) and has existed since at least Evequest (I know it showed up in most games back then). I see 4th Ed as an evolution of that idea, where the tanks generally incentivize targeting them as opposed to literally forcing it.

But this is sidetracking real hard. Sorry. Poke me if you'd like to continue this talk >_>

This is... not so right? (now anyway and well technically in EQ days because EQ didn't have much in the way of threat boosters and raw damage was how you built threat, but lolEQ)

WoW moved away from EQ style AI control through flat boosters after Lich King (and were trying it even during it).  These days the WoW archetype and things that follow it is very much the same way as MOBAs, Tanks do okay damage.  Not as much as a DPS, but still decent.  If your tank can't maintain a rotation they are going to be a burden. 

Also bro that same skill set that lets you be a threat in MOBAs is why tanks were PVP viable as well.  They were always in the skillset.  Stuns, snares, interrupts.  Is all there.  They are just brought way more to the forefront in competitive play against humans that all the skills work on VS raid bosses that are immune to everything but the one mechanic that the fight uses.

Add in some bonus movement skills and you have why in Cata and onwards Warriors were flag carriers in PVP.  Tank the world, charge out of the way, dump CCs like a boss and slam dunk the flag.  Add in hilarious Vengeance stacking shenanigans (long since fixed) on point defense maps where they get beat on fore a minute building up damage buffs for damage taken then cleave down groups of enemies with AoE.

I think the hardest thing for me is actually pinpointing where it originated.  WoW started getting into that kind of balance in 2008ish by my timeline, which is when 4th Ed released (lol 4th ed totes 100% rips off WoW though rite??).  MOBAs might be the inspiration there with DotA really blowing up around 2005, but most of the tools for that are present in the classic Warrior archetype of WoW (which again rips hard from EQ) AND the original DotA heroes are riffing on stuff that was present in base Warcraft 3...  so does it go back to that?  Even Warcraft 3 it felt like riffs on classic archetypes from D&D (or maybe EQ lolololol).

I can't tell if it is piles of incestuous inspiration, some parallel design principles or what was going on.

It could be as simple as two different problems having the same results in their answer.  Tanks were boring in MMOs, so we should incentivize them to be more active whether it be maintaining tanking abilities or doing damage.  "Tanking" in both tabletop gaming (and MOBAs I guess) was kind of bullshit because well the DM and other human players can just focus fire down the squishies, so they should get things that make them a more appealing target (by whatever means necessary).  The result to both problems is the same though, targets that soak damage and do stuff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 19, 2015, 02:58:05 PM
Drafts... are fun.  Here are some opinions on drafts. 



Draft 1
Banned: Wizard/Calc
Team 1: Summoner, Squire, Priest, Samurai, Monk, Thief, Geomancer, Bard, Dancer
Team 2: Time Mage, Chemist, Ninja, Oracle, Knight, Mediator, Archer, Lancer, Mime

Well, team 1 wins this in a walkover for sure.  Yeow.  Summoner/Squire/Priest is all you need to crush the game quickly, efficiently and safely.  Summon.  Holy.  Raise if you need it and then on top of that they have options for Samurai or Geo setups, access to strong movement abilities, and all sorts of gravy options for Nelveska or what have you. 

Team 2... has no MT, except for Short Charge Meteor.  For most battles in the game, they're all in on that, and it's painful just getting there because they have no Gained JP Up and no strong earlygame offense while building Time Mage.  They have Ninja, but their Ninjas suck - Concentrate and Brave tweaks, but no Martial Arts to take advantage of the Brave, no Attack Up, no Move + (I guess they can Teleport but that doesn't buff Throw), and they didn't even pick up Sunken State/Perform abuse.  Guns, Jump or Oracle seem like better fallback options.  But Team 1's fallback options are things like Half of MP Holy, or Kiku and Earth Slash.   

Feels like Team 2 made some poor draft choices.  They're essentially on Time Mage SCC + Item and Br/Fa twinks, and all their other options are mediocre ST kills.  They have defense but subpar offense - Time Mage setups don't really want to use Move MP Up/MP Switch, and their Ninja setups sacrifice even more mobility and don't have damage.

Things I took away from thinking about this: Ninja by itself is overrated, they need help from other jobs to shine.  MT and range skills are important when thinking about how battles will ideally play out.  Offense is way more important than defense... but Wizard may not be the correct first ban.  Summoner and Time Mage are both mainstays and not splitting them feels very strong for Team 1.  I feel like *both* teams would gladly swap the opposition's first picked job with Wizard, if given the chance.  Team 2 mutters something like "at least now they have to use Samurai" and Team 1 points and laughs and goes "Now you have no MT and no movement, enjoy taking multiple rounds on every non-assassination map!"  Time Mage by itself is still very strong, because it combines a nuke and a good mage support in one job.




Draft 2: Calc not banned
Banned: Wizard/Squire
Team 1: Calculator, Time Mage, Priest, Thief, Lancer, Bard, Dancer, Geomancer, Samurai
Team 2: Summoner, Chemist, Oracle, Knight, Mediator, Ninja, Monk, Archer, Mime

With Calc in the mix, there are now three battlefield nuke classes so they're going to be split.  This makes them less important to ban, but also means Team 2 has to be very, very on point with what they plan to do.  I can already say in their shoes I would not ban Squire, I would want to first pick Squire + nuke class.  When your competition is Math, you aren't winning the long game, so getting out to a strong early lead is important.  Gained JP Up does that better than Item, IMO.  If Squire is banned, then Summon + Time at least gives you Short Charge summons to work to, that's the best thing you can be doing without Math or Wizardry.  Chemist just does not make sense to me.

As these particular picks shook out... math is math and Team 1 both having math and denying three of the big four mage classes to Team 2 feels crushing.  Team 2 managed to get Super Kung Fu Ninjas this time, but still didn't get them any movement.  It's true that Team 1 has a bad earlygame, but it's not as bad as it could be.  Not everyone in the party needs Math Skill, after all - only one or two PCs actually need to grind in that direction, and the others can go be a balanced party, Priest/TM/Geo/Lancer, whatevs.

Things taken away:  Math is hella broke.  Team 1 seems to have a significant pick advantage in all the scenarios I'm thinking through.  Picking Chemist early comes at a significant cost in offensive team power.  I feel like all of these drafts are taking it way too highly.  You don't need Auto-Potion and Phoenix Down when every fight gets one-rounded, which is honestly what should happen in a draft format with skilled players and only one ban per team.



Draft 3: Summoner banned
Banned: Summoner/Calc
Team 1: Chemist, Priest, Squire, Samurai, Monk, Lancer, Dancer, Archer, Bard
Team 2: Wizard, Time Mage, Ninja, Oracle, Thief, Geomancer, Mediator, Knight

Ok, now we're in that scenario I was thinking about!  With only one premium MT nuke class available, Team 1 obviously gets to first pick Time Mage and Team 2 will face a tough choice between two of Wizard, Chemist, Ninja, Squire and Samurai...  .... eh?  That isn't what happened, you say?  Hmm. 

So Team 2 gets the better of this one, cleanly.  Team 1 feels all over the place.  What is their plan?  Holy and weak classes until Samurai comes online?  Let's see what MC said.  Dance?  Dance + Holy?  Is... is that even better than Wizard SCC, even when fully set up?  And Team 2 has all that other stuff?  This may be less close than the Math draft.

Things taken away: Have a coherent plan.  Don't get into hatedraft wars when your own lineup is still weak.  Don't take Chemist early.  Refer to earlier comments re: you should be one rounding battles (or close enough to it).  If you aren't doing that yet, then pick something that actively helps you get there.  If you are, pick something that gets you there faster.  Despite Ninja itself being picked high, we have yet to see any team arrive in a final position where they both can and wish to use Ninja strats.



Draft 4: Chemist banned
Banned: Chemist, Calc
Team 1: Summoner, Priest, Squire, Oracle, Samurai, Geomancer, Knight, Dancer, Bard
Team 2: Time Mage, Wizard, Monk, Ninja, Mediator, Thief, Archer, Lancer, Mime

Ok, it took a ban to do it but this looks more like what I was envisioning at the outset, with an even split of the mage classes and then a fight for support.  Monk/Ninja looks like a suspect pick here.  Is Team 2 really going to actually use those physical jobs over potential picks of Oracle, Mediator and Samurai?  Revive was mentioned, but really, who's ever learning and setting that?  Oracle at least would give Move MP Switch and sticks, if you're worried about running into situations where magic is somehow bad.

That said, this looks... a lot like the first draft, but closer.  Team 1 has the Summoner/Priest/Squire combo again, and it hasn't gotten any worse.  That's still all you need to win, quickly, efficiently, safely and learned fast.  Their latergame looks a bit worse, though - they lost upgraded movement and support options, except for Ramza.  Team 2, on the other hand, looks *much* better in comparison to their draft 1 selves.  Wizard provides both the earlygame options and the lategame punch they need in order to really compete with Summon.  They can choose between Short Charge and MAUp as the situation demands, they have the faith tweaking to make things even better, and even some reasonable options for RSM slots. 

I honestly don't know who wins this.  It may be... yeah I think I'm leaning vaguely towards team 2, despite the pick I questioned.  I think Mediator is the important midtier class there, as it represents a significant and almost free increase in damage and reaction reliability for either team.  Team 2 dropped the ball by taking physicals, but then Team 1 dropped it back to them with the Oracle/Samurai pick.  Oh, also, Bard going dead last when magic is in play, that probably shouldn't happen.  Ramza is still a forced male PC, Bard is still an acceptable-ish job for a mage to be in, and Move+3 isn't that big of a dip compared to some of the stuff teams have seriously considered.

Things taken away: Magic is good.  Like really good.  Team 1 banning Chemist instead of Wizard significantly improved the quality of Team 2... both because Team 2 was able to take Wizard, and because they didn't waste an early pick on Chemist.  Squire on the other hand deserves its tier 1.5 billing.  Mediator is stronger than it seems in an open field because it improves everything, especially the best jobs, with very low JP investment and no skill slots required when it's go time. 


Draft 5: Calc allowed again

Nothing here looks really new compared to the previous draft, and I'm tired, so no in depth commentary right now.



General thoughts: Drawing conclusions from these drafts runs a danger of circular logic, where we as drafters pick a thing high or low because we already think it's good/bad and then look at the results and go "thing got drafted high/low, it must be good/bad!"  Clearly I value Chemist (and healing/revival/durability generally) much, much lower than MC does in the draft format.  I think I would not ever take Chemist over Squire or any magic class, except possibly Oracle.  I also don't think nonmagical setups are optimal or even particularly viable when strong magic is available.  Time Mage is a very strong pick to me, roughly equal to Wizard and Summoner.  My ideal composition is (strong lategame MT magic) + (strong magic support) + (strong earlygame carry). Time Mage, Summoner and Wizard each provide 2/3 of the puzzle.  TM lacks earlygame, Summoner lacks support, and Wizard lacks lategame.  If all three are legal after bans, I think Team 2 has a significant advantage.  If only one is legal, Team 1 has an advantage and Team 2 might consider going all in on physical.  If two are legal, they're probably split, and depending on which two, things can get messy.

Oh and Fullcalc is broken.  If this was a real format I'd want to say you can only Calc spells of other jobs you have drafted.  It is still probably the best job even with that.

General eyeballing job strengths in ban format:
Calc >> Summoner > Wizard > Time Mage > Squire > Priest > (Ninja and Samurai if you are moving in on them) > Mediator > Chemist > Oracle > Geomancer > Thief > Monk > Bard > Lancer > Archer > (Ninja and Samurai if you are not moving in) > Knight > Dancer > Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on October 19, 2015, 05:18:51 PM
This is... not so right? (now anyway and well technically in EQ days because EQ didn't have much in the way of threat boosters and raw damage was how you built threat, but lolEQ)

WoW moved away from EQ style AI control through flat boosters after Lich King (and were trying it even during it).  These days the WoW archetype and things that follow it is very much the same way as MOBAs, Tanks do okay damage.  Not as much as a DPS, but still decent.  If your tank can't maintain a rotation they are going to be a burden. 

Also bro that same skill set that lets you be a threat in MOBAs is why tanks were PVP viable as well.  They were always in the skillset.  Stuns, snares, interrupts.  Is all there.  They are just brought way more to the forefront in competitive play against humans that all the skills work on VS raid bosses that are immune to everything but the one mechanic that the fight uses.

Add in some bonus movement skills and you have why in Cata and onwards Warriors were flag carriers in PVP.  Tank the world, charge out of the way, dump CCs like a boss and slam dunk the flag.  Add in hilarious Vengeance stacking shenanigans (long since fixed) on point defense maps where they get beat on fore a minute building up damage buffs for damage taken then cleave down groups of enemies with AoE.

I think the hardest thing for me is actually pinpointing where it originated.  WoW started getting into that kind of balance in 2008ish by my timeline, which is when 4th Ed released (lol 4th ed totes 100% rips off WoW though rite??).  MOBAs might be the inspiration there with DotA really blowing up around 2005, but most of the tools for that are present in the classic Warrior archetype of WoW (which again rips hard from EQ) AND the original DotA heroes are riffing on stuff that was present in base Warcraft 3...  so does it go back to that?  Even Warcraft 3 it felt like riffs on classic archetypes from D&D (or maybe EQ lolololol).

I can't tell if it is piles of incestuous inspiration, some parallel design principles or what was going on.

It could be as simple as two different problems having the same results in their answer.  Tanks were boring in MMOs, so we should incentivize them to be more active whether it be maintaining tanking abilities or doing damage.  "Tanking" in both tabletop gaming (and MOBAs I guess) was kind of bullshit because well the DM and other human players can just focus fire down the squishies, so they should get things that make them a more appealing target (by whatever means necessary).  The result to both problems is the same though, targets that soak damage and do stuff.

That's fair on both counts. I will fully admit that I was thinking PvE tanking (I never really PvPed in WoW), but thinking about things, you seem pretty obviously correct.

I kinda want to post something longer on this (specifically re: durability builds), but too sleepy right now. I'll do it later.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 19, 2015, 05:54:22 PM
Djinn: Hrmm, I'll pass.  This is the *Theorycrafting* topic after all.  And I imagine MC has played vanilla FFT so much that it'd require much wackier stipulations to be interesting for her, or at least LFT or the like.  And on that note, if somebody was *actually playing*, I can't imagine denying anybody Gained JP Up as just a quality-of-life deal to make things more fun, even if just in C1/C2.  Similar to how FE7/FE8 drafts usually let everybody have Marcus or Seth for the first half of the game.

Alex: I can't speak for MC, but I think I'm just looking at this from different angles re: Chemist/Priest/Monk.  To be sure, you're correct that "You don't need Auto-Potion and Phoenix Down when every fight gets one-rounded", but I guess I personally am assuming something more like "a smart person's 2nd trip through FFT" rather than "somebody who does SCCs" for general competency level.  After all, if you're good enough to do SCCs, then it's hard to assess balance since you're expected to win anyway with 9 classes rather than 1.  In the same manner, a lot of easier-than-FFT RPGs often have powerful healing that isn't actually super-necessary if you really know what you're doing, especially in challenge / speed runs.  Yet I'd still rank such healing pretty highly, since if you're not crushing everything immediately, you can simply fall back on never dying instead.  FF5 White Mage was considered top-tier in the in-game rankings thread for example despite having no offense for a loooong time.  FF7 Restore Materia is among the best materia to equip despite most enemies dealing no damage, and the enemies that do deal damage usually being spoilable with elemental resistance if you can set up for it.  (In the same way, you don't need maximum-broken Ninjas or max-broken TMs for the classes to still be really useful and strong.)

I will agree that any of MC's drafts with Summoner (and no Calc for the opposition) probably favors the Summoner team, because Summoner is just plain one of the most dominant classes out there, with a Summoner SCC probably being on par with "your choice of your least favorite 14 classes".  Summoners don't even *need* MAU or Short Charge to be good.  That's why I mentioned that with MC's ruleset, I'd be tempted to run 3-5 Summoners regardless of whatever else I drafted if I somehow grabbed Summoner.  (My 3rd playthrough of the game - without reading FFTSB or GameFAQs or anything - was a "-1 deploy limit" run, and I had something like Summone/Time Mage, Summoner/Priest, Summoner/Oracle, and Ramza as Ubersquire/Geo w/ White Magic.  Yeah, 3/4 summons is good times.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 19, 2015, 09:34:22 PM
Really enjoyed reading your analyses, Alex.

I do agree with Snowfire's points though, overall, re the value of good healing. In particular, Mediator certainly isn't better than Chemist. Equip Gun is not better than Auto-Potion, and Invitation(/Talk Skill) is not better than Phoenix Down(/Item). That's honestly one of the easiest comparisons out there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 20, 2015, 01:10:20 AM
Oh, to be clear, there, the only things I'm valuing from Mediator at all are Praise and Preach.  The job description reads "a small investment in this class gives your mages (and/or monks and ninjas) a permanent passive damage bonus, and makes your reaction abilities trigger more often."  Is +~30% damage on your Ramuh or Black better than Auto-Potion?  Yeah, absolutely, that enables a lot of quick kills that wouldn't otherwise be possible.  On Meteor... hm, I guess there is the argument that Meteors are going to OHKO or overlap 2HKO anyway, so the damage boost may be overkill if you're on Time Mage or TM/Priest as your only casters?  That does lower it somewhat.

And all of this is coming from a super Spike type of approach where it's assumed these two teams are played skillfully through the vanilla game and are competing with each other on... some metrics, of which I'm gravitating towards things like "no resets" and "fewest ATs to win" as being important.  There's a ton of stuff you can fall back on to never lose.  Mediator+Monk is an amusing example, 100% Gun Hamedo and maxed Martial Arts are pretty nice.  Move MP Up MP Switch Ninjas are hard to kill.  The Quickening exists, if it isn't banned.  But clearly no one is considering setups like that to be seriously competitive, even MC's drafts completely discount them in favor of "just kill things with magic!"  Not losing is not the same as winning, in a competitive scenario.  Summoners are never going to reset either, because all the enemies are going to be dead. 

I guess it comes down to expectations of player skill?  Snowfire says that high skill players are hard to consider balance for, while I'm operating on the opposite and feel that high skill players are the only ones who balance *can* be adequately considered for.

The 4JF format does change things up.  That requires a lot more thought and I'll probably tackle it later tonight!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DjinnAndTonic on October 20, 2015, 01:35:06 AM
Djinn: Similar to how FE7/FE8 drafts usually let everybody have Marcus or Seth for the first half of the game.

Wait what. People do Fire Emblem draft runs?!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on October 20, 2015, 03:42:53 AM
In my experience four Summon Magic users+1 guy with item results in slightly less resets on average than a full team of Summoners. You usually have enough offense to faceroll anything either way, but the one guy with Phoenix Down usually gives you a healthy margin of error in case you accidentally let someone get KO'd by a stray ninja or whatever. Later in the game you'll also have ethers in case you REALLY need the extra MP for something.

I haven't actually used math skill in practice, but I'd imagine that 5 Mathskillers is gross overkill in literally every situation, even moreso than 5 Wizards w/ Short Charge 108 Gem Leviathan.

I guess it depend on how much you value the safety nets for resets vs absolute minimum turncounts when evaluating classes. Also whether we are assuming absolute perfect play on every single turn or allowing for some leeway on minor mistakes, like miscalculating enemy attack range once in a while. Personally, I just don't quite have enough FFT experience to handle every single circumstance when going all-in on mage offense, so I do value safety nets like Phoenix Down and Auto-Potion fairly highly.

Edit: Djinn, there's an entire subforum (http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?s=a75174826ce062c2b13c0caf4cbac555&showforum=60) dedicated to them on Serenes Forest.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 20, 2015, 07:13:31 AM
Quote
I guess it comes down to expectations of player skill?  Snowfire says that high skill players are hard to consider balance for, while I'm operating on the opposite and feel that high skill players are the only ones who balance *can* be adequately considered for.

The thing is, if "few resets" are the main metric, then past a certain point really good players all have 0 resets.  It's like 2 students getting a perfect score on the test: you can check things like "how fast did you finish the test", "did this hype require weird or nonintuitive bug/AI exploits",  and "were you forced to go grind up rare steals / poaches to study for the test to really guarantee a perfect score", but it's a little arbitrary.  I'd argue hard-focusing offense can help with the tiebreaker issues like "number of turns used" assuming elite players, but also potentially lead to resets and & more frequent crystalizations if you mess up.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 20, 2015, 07:50:43 AM
Quote
Oh, to be clear, there, the only things I'm valuing from Mediator at all are Praise and Preach.  The job description reads "a small investment in this class gives your mages (and/or monks and ninjas) a permanent passive damage bonus, and makes your reaction abilities trigger more often."  Is +~30% damage on your Ramuh or Black better than Auto-Potion?  Yeah, absolutely, that enables a lot of quick kills that wouldn't otherwise be possible.  On Meteor... hm, I guess there is the argument that Meteors are going to OHKO or overlap 2HKO anyway, so the damage boost may be overkill if you're on Time Mage or TM/Priest as your only casters?  That does lower it somewhat.

I would first argue that Praise deserves little to no hype, as Cheer Up does a better job (maybe not relevant for draft theorycraft which arbitrarily pretends Ubersquire doesn't exist, but extremely relevant to how I'd score the jobs in reality). Still, even if you respect it... it and Preach really aren't great. e.g. to get a 30% damage boost to Ramuh, you'll need to land Preach 21 times... which given its accuracy probably means you'll have to use it at least 30 times, and that's assuming you set up for good internal zodiac. When are you going to do that? It really depends how we're scoring people here, but you yourself suggested "fewest ATs" as a possible candidate and it's obvious this is a losing strategy under such a format.

By comparison, Auto-Potion is just "learn it, now you have roughly triple the durability". (using mc's figures here) You can quibble her numbers, maybe it's only closer to double if you're being 2HKOed for instance. But double durability makes a decent case for itself against +30% damage (I suspect you'll argue it loses, but it shouldn't be a slaughter), and 400 Chemist JP plus some potion money is far easier to come by than 200 Mediator JP plus over 30 turns spent on actions which do almost nothing to help you win the fights they're used in.


I think we all agree that zero resets is a desirable outcome, and Chemist's tricks do go an awfully long way towards ensuring that (I agree with hinode that 4 Summoners + 1 Chemist would outperform a Summoner SCC.) They don't help much with some other metrics, such as speed (Auto-Potion does help decently, just not as much as Summon/Math/Meteor/etc.), so I'm certainly open to them being anywhere from like, #3 to #5 or so. It does depend somewhat on how you weight various aspects and what level of player skill you assume.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2015, 08:03:33 AM
With Calc in the mix, there are now three battlefield nuke classes so they're going to be split.  This makes them less important to ban, but also means Team 2 has to be very, very on point with what they plan to do.  I can already say in their shoes I would not ban Squire, I would want to first pick Squire + nuke class.  When your competition is Math, you aren't winning the long game, so getting out to a strong early lead is important.  Gained JP Up does that better than Item, IMO.  If Squire is banned, then Summon + Time at least gives you Short Charge summons to work to, that's the best thing you can be doing without Math or Wizardry.  Chemist just does not make sense to me.

The thinking here was as follows:

1. Ramuh costs 200 JP.  You will get there just fine without Gained JP Up.
2. If you don't ban squire you have to pick it immediately, making your immediate pick Summoner/Squire.  There is no scenario where you get Summoner/Time Mage unless you give Squire or Chemist to the Calc team.
3. Phoenix Down is literally free, and a very good skill to have.  Auto Potion is very good and costs 400 JP--very much affordable without Gained JP Up.  Picking Chemist is a big part of the "dominating the earlygame" plan.
4. So...like in the "take Summoner/Squire" plan...is the ban Chemist?  Cause if you ban Chemist, the Calc team takes Priest/Time Mage, and now you have to pick up Monk if you want revival.

Quote
Picking Chemist early comes at a significant cost in offensive team power.  I feel like all of these drafts are taking it way too highly.  You don't need Auto-Potion and Phoenix Down when every fight gets one-rounded, which is honestly what should happen in a draft format with skilled players and only one ban per team.

Mmm...for what it's worth I was imagining that you would do something to make the battles not complete walkovers (like...low level caps, three party members, I don't know...something).



Quote
So Team 2 gets the better of this one, cleanly.  Team 1 feels all over the place.  What is their plan?  Holy and weak classes until Samurai comes online?  Let's see what MC said.  Dance?  Dance + Holy?  Is... is that even better than Wizard SCC, even when fully set up?  And Team 2 has all that other stuff?  This may be less close than the Math draft.

For what it's worth, team 1 put a lot of effort into making sure team 2 didn't have revival, but yes, this did screw them in offence.


Quote
Ok, it took a ban to do it but this looks more like what I was envisioning at the outset, with an even split of the mage classes and then a fight for support.  Monk/Ninja looks like a suspect pick here.  Is Team 2 really going to actually use those physical jobs over potential picks of Oracle, Mediator and Samurai?  Revive was mentioned, but really, who's ever learning and setting that?  Oracle at least would give Move MP Switch and sticks, if you're worried about running into situations where magic is somehow bad.

The thought was a mixed party, instead of an all-mage party, where you do run one Monk.  This also has the side-effect of probably getting HP restore for the entire party through spillover JP (in a party short on reactions).  Also, Chakra for MP restoration, which is relevant in a party whose offence plan is Short Charge Meteor.

I agree that there is a realistic argument for not moving in on Monk here, going without revival, and picking the stronger classes.

Quote
Oh, also, Bard going dead last when magic is in play, that probably shouldn't happen.  Ramza is still a forced male PC, Bard is still an acceptable-ish job for a mage to be in, and Move+3 isn't that big of a dip compared to some of the stuff teams have seriously considered.

Wait, wait wait, you're trashing Chemist because "fights should be over in one round" -- which ok, I wasn't intending for that to be the flavour of the draft, but I follow your logic.  But now you're...praising Bard?  What?  Bard is literally the slowest, grindiest class that ever existed.  I have some respect for Bards, but hell, Mimes end fights faster than Bards do.

"Bard is still an acceptable-ish job for a mage to be in"?  I hope you don't actually mean the class itself, because umm...50 MPM.  Tied for the lowest MP in the game (and the lowest MP growth in the game).  Can't equip robes, just in case you were planning to use your equipment to give them some MP.  Less HP than every single mage class (including Calculator).  Admitedly, their MA multiplier isn't bad; it's like...Priest level.  Except they have basically no equipment that boosts MA.  No robes.  No weapons that give MA.  No shield slot for Aegis Shield.  Their hat and their accessory is all they have to work with for MA.  I'd wager a guess that once Rune Blades become available, Knights have more MA than Bards.  *runs some calculations* yes, yes they do.  Often tied even before Rune Blades.  (Or ahead, actually, if you use C Bags).

17 MP at level 30!!!! (Admitedly, that's with bard stat growths; 27 if you have mage stat growths the whole way).  And again, can't boost that with robes.  Can boost it with hats.

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Time Mage is a very strong pick to me, roughly equal to Wizard and Summoner.  My ideal composition is (strong lategame MT magic) + (strong magic support) + (strong earlygame carry). Time Mage, Summoner and Wizard each provide 2/3 of the puzzle.  TM lacks earlygame, Summoner lacks support, and Wizard lacks lategame.

Yeah, this is a fair point, and I think Time Mage drifted up a bit as I thought of this as more of a draft format.

Cause in terms of abstract class quality, Time Mage definitely hurts from competition.  Magic Attack Up is relevant for all four big offense options.  Short Charge is irrelevant for Math Skill and Draw Out.  Short Charge has twice the MP cost, and to really make use of it you need to pick up the 900 JP cost summons instead of the 200 JP cost summons that go with MAU.

That said, I think Time Mage also suffers from the very specific format restrictions--namely, this is a class where you want 3000+ JP.  You really want Squire, and you probably won't get Squire with it.  It's really awkward to get Squire with Time Mage.  Like...first pick Time Mage, and let your opponent get Wizard+Summoner--that's one way to get Squire.  Another way is to be team 2 and first pick Time Mage+Squire, and you know, let your opponent have Wizard or whatever.  And you're not getting Time Mage any later than that unless Calc isn't banned.

Quote
General thoughts: Drawing conclusions from these drafts runs a danger of circular logic, where we as drafters pick a thing high or low because we already think it's good/bad and then look at the results and go "thing got drafted high/low, it must be good/bad!"

Oh absolutely agree with this...but even with that being said, I feel like I learned some things.  Like...Squire went later than where I had put it on the tier list.  Chemist ended up getting picked higher and earlier (even though, granted, you feel this is the wrong direction).

Quote
General eyeballing job strengths in ban format:
Calc >> Summoner > Wizard > Time Mage > Squire > Priest > (Ninja and Samurai if you are moving in on them) > Mediator > Chemist > Oracle > Geomancer > Thief > Monk > Bard > Lancer > Archer > (Ninja and Samurai if you are not moving in) > Knight > Dancer > Mime

I guess I'm pretty skeptical of Priest's positioning.  Like...you value damage, and consider healing pretty bad, that's fine, but this means Priest is mostly where they are due to Holy.  Pretty sure Ninja is quite a bit better at damage than Priest.  (In fact, last I checked Ninja was considered the easier SCC, despite the fact that Ninjas are all about killing, whereas Priests do a lot of stuff).

I guess I'm also not sure why Geomancers are where they are.  The highest damage setups for mages?  Basically never Geomancer.  The highest damage setups for physical classes?  Not in Geomancer either.  Attack Up?  I think it's less damage than Martial Arts for Ninja if you're going that route?  Not 100% sure on that.  (Reminder: Attack Up doesn't boost the damage of Throw).

I also think your Lancer placement feels like...well maybe it needs a split the way Ninja/Samurai have two ratings.  Lancer is a class you have to dedicate a lot of training to to get any value out of it.  If you're not going to have a dedicated Lancer, then Lancer does almost nothing for you.  If you are going to have a dedicated lancer, sure, you can deal lots of singletarget damage.  Like...if you're not planning on having anyone in Lancer, it certainly does less than Knight (Knight has some decent inexpensive R/S/M abilities).  If you are planning on having a dedicated Lancer, then it does plenty (and certainly helps your offence more than Bard).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2015, 08:49:42 AM
Queklain is Level 20.


To be clear, I think 15 for Orbonne is reasonable enough, it was 15 for Riovanes that I was questioning (beyond the lowest-level classes).


That said, no way is Time Mage 13 for Velius. Time Mage needs to hit Level 12 just to start casting Meteor, something they do in chapter 2. (Everything before Meteor involves lots of Haste and staff whacks so they actually gain large amounts of Exp early). Now, they finish battles in such a small number of actions after Meteor that they probably aren't 18 by the end of C3, that I'll grant, but they should be ~16 just based on getting one level every four battles post-Meteor (which sounds right to me).

Samurai/Squire I'm both really skeptical about and I'm certain I wasn't that low myself (despite not grinding), but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Keep in mind that if I recall your playstyle right, you tended to reset if you got in randoms so right there that's a fair bit of potential lost Exp, especially for Samurai which will absolutely backtrack for Kiyomori post-Yardow thus having 7 potential randoms (~2.3 on average? They're 1/3 chance, right?) in chapter 3.


Hmm, that makes me want to put this together...


List of potential randoms, for reference:
Chapter 1:
5 unavoidable (Mandalia, Sweegy, Mandalia, Mandalia, Mandalia)
1 if we backtrack for Silk Robe/Chain Vest
2 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Mithril Sword, Silver Bow, heavy equip upgrades, etc., after Miluda

Chapter 2:
4 if we backtrack for the first spear and/or the Ice Bow
3 if we backtrack for the Triangle Hat, Rainbow Staff, Power Wrist, and/or sticks instead of waiting for after Zaland
4 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Coral Swords before Zaland and Bariaus Hill [very unlikely]
2 if we backtrack for Green Berets and Wizard Robes before Zigolis and Goug
4 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for katanas and balls
1 if we backtrack for Brigandine, Wizard Staff, and/or Bizen Boat
1 unavoidable (Bariaus Valley)
10 if we backtrack for Cross Helmets [extremely unlikly!]

Chapter 3:
4 if we backtrack for various new weapons at chapter start (sword, spear, bow) instead of waiting until after Goland
3 unavoidable (Zeklaus x3)
8 if we backtrack for Mithril Guns [unlikely]
2 if we backtrack for Platinum Sword and +30 heavy armour HP after Yardow
2 if, in addition to the above, we backtrack for Ninja Edge and Kiyomori

Chapter 4:
12 unavoidable (Yuguo, Grog, Finath, Bed, Finath, Dolbodar, Zirekile, Araguay, Sweegy, Mandalia, Mandalia, Sweegy)
Plus a bunch more if we do the Beowulf sidequest, don't feel like counting that up.


I think how much backtracking one does is open to player choice, though I'd typically rather not do any backtracks that involve 5+ battles at least, and a few more in there are certainly questionable too. Some obviously depend on the party contribution; the first backtrack of chapter 2 is a no-brainer if you plan on running a Lancer in the first half of the chapter, but if you aren't you will probably skip it.

So anyway, digging like two pages back in the topic to this...used this in a new set of calculations.  Also upped the expected number of actions for most fights to 5 instead of 3.  (Because my initial calculations, which assumed 3 actions per fight, was returning values people said were low; also I watched a random let's play, and 5 actions in a fight happened on Barius Hill).

Here's what I got

End of chapter 1: level 6

End of chapter 2: level 14

End of Chapter 3: level 22

Sluice: level 27

Before final dungeon: 35

Going into Altima: level 38


I will say, these numbers look kind-of high to me.  Although...I think my Geomancer SCC might have ended up around that level, just because they killed people with elemental so it typically took quite a few actions to kill enemies.



Obviously if we go by Alex's "battles are over in one round max" then these numbers are horribly, horribly wrong.  Numbers for that would be more like

Chapter 1: level 2 (can confirm, have beaten Chapter 1 at level 2)
Chapter 2: level 6
Chapter 3: level 10
Sluice: level 13
Going into Altima: level 20
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Ranmilia on October 20, 2015, 09:04:16 AM
Ah, my rust is showing in regards to Bard, then.  I just skimmed the BMG and only noticed that its MA was okay.  Also I forgot Cheer Up existed.  >_> 

Geo and Lancer... I didn't put too much thought into their placements, no.  Geo depends really heavily on what the rest of the team is, and Lancer I was considering far enough down the list of things players would main as to be irrelevant, and only thinking of them as "maybe you have no reaction and somehow want to get Dragon Spirit?"   That's probably LFT influence seeping in though - Dragon Spirit is really 560 JP?!  I think there are enough spare actions to make faith raising at least somewhat useful, but maybe not that much...

Priest that high is due to synergy with other mage jobs, considering that magic is usually going to be the main strategy of choice.  If your options are just Priest vs Ninja in a vacuum, Ninja's better, but if you're looking for "second class to support Wizard, Time Mage or Summoner" then there's no real reason to give Ninja the time of day - Priest can help your earlygame while remaining relevant later.

Level caps or fewer PCs definitely change the game significantly, and make Chemist much more desirable!  I do feel like I've talked Chemist down a bit more than it deserved, now.  It does significantly help the earlygame.  A team lacking revival is just not a problem to me, though, as long as their offensive capacity is sufficient. 

Quote
The thing is, if "few resets" are the main metric, then past a certain point really good players all have 0 resets.  It's like 2 students getting a perfect score on the test: you can check things like "how fast did you finish the test", "did this hype require weird or nonintuitive bug/AI exploits",  and "were you forced to go grind up rare steals / poaches to study for the test to really guarantee a perfect score", but it's a little arbitrary.  I'd argue hard-focusing offense can help with the tiebreaker issues like "number of turns used" assuming elite players, but also potentially lead to resets and & more frequent crystalizations if you mess up.

Basically this, except I think this is vastly underrating how powerful FFT offense is and how easy it is to have 0 resets, which makes "how fast" the real competitive measurement in question to me.  Like... resets are kinda rare in the good SCCs to begin with.  Summoner + Item is certainly better than Summoner + nothing, but when you're adding not just two jobs together, but half the jobs in the game, with some choice allowed?  That's overkill, without restrictions of some sort.  Something has gone horribly wrong if a reset is ever in the picture. 

Uh, anyhow, sorry, didn't mean to be all contentious!

Edit since new post - as far as character building goes, I do tend to assume that some amount of JP gain is frontloaded and done in chapter 1.  Not necessarily "frog an enemy and grind your full skillset" but "poke your teammates with rods in between Delita murdering the enemy at a moderate pace."  The specifics are hard to work out without hashing things like "how do you get through 'banned' jobs in a draft anyway?"   One rounding fights starts in mid chapter 2, except for Summoner, and even then is somewhat of an exaggeration.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2015, 09:46:43 AM
I will agree that any of MC's drafts with Summoner (and no Calc for the opposition) probably favors the Summoner team, because Summoner is just plain one of the most dominant classes out there, with a Summoner SCC probably being on par with "your choice of your least favorite 14 classes".  Summoners don't even *need* MAU or Short Charge to be good.  That's why I mentioned that with MC's ruleset, I'd be tempted to run 3-5 Summoners regardless of whatever else I drafted if I somehow grabbed Summoner.  (My 3rd playthrough of the game - without reading FFTSB or GameFAQs or anything - was a "-1 deploy limit" run, and I had something like Summone/Time Mage, Summoner/Priest, Summoner/Oracle, and Ramza as Ubersquire/Geo w/ White Magic.  Yeah, 3/4 summons is good times.)

While Summon is very very good, and I'm sold at this point on it being top tier outside of Mathskill...

Like...Summoner SCC is not considered the easiest SCC.  SCC easiness rankings, if I recall, go something like...

1) Chemist
2) Time Mage
3) Ninja/Priest/Summoner (I actually forget which of these are considered easier, but I think Summoner was considered slightly harder)

Summoner generally needs some support in the lategame (either Short Charge or Magic Attack Up).

Quote
The Quickening exists, if it isn't banned.

Oh, OK, one sec--Important rule that I hadn't mentioned:

Full team coordination isn't being considered

What I mean is like...picture a Vancouver co-op style playthrough, where you control one character, and all levelling decisions for them, and 1-4 other players of varying skill also control one character.  Pass the controller around multiplayer.  You can assume your teammates are competent.  But you can't assume a specific reaction/faith/zodiac/whatever from your teammate.  Even if you tell them to learn Critical Quick, they might be like "nah, don't feel like unlocking that right now."  You also might need to carry your team a little.

So...good luck trying to herd all the cats necessary to make The Quickening happen.  But even outside of The Quickening...an argument I've seen on the FFT board that I don't take too seriously is that "Raise has a 100% hitrate because you will have a flawless internal compatibility triangle and 70 faith on all your characters."  Yeah...in a Vancouver style co-op game that won't be the case; not for every character, at least.

Now, you might, might be able to talk someone into the second best setup after the Quickening (Countermagic Quick) since that only requires two people working together.  It hasn't happened, but it could...maybe.  But it still requires a lot of assumptions.  Quick's base hitrate is trash, so probably best internal compatibility.  97 brave is a must.  Enough MP restoration per Quick is a must (and that takes like...240 MP, not a statline you'll see at normal levels).  It requires someone learning Quick at all (800 JP ability) and someone else learning Countermagic at all (800 JP ability). 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2015, 10:07:26 AM
Priest that high is due to synergy with other mage jobs, considering that magic is usually going to be the main strategy of choice.  If your options are just Priest vs Ninja in a vacuum, Ninja's better, but if you're looking for "second class to support Wizard, Time Mage or Summoner" then there's no real reason to give Ninja the time of day - Priest can help your earlygame while remaining relevant later.

So...here's the thing--I often end up feeling that Item has better synergy with mages than White Magic does (for healing).  Item is something you can do when you run out of MP.  Item can restore MP.  Item is instant.  These are all properties that are very good on a skillset to give to a mage.

Black Mage with Item is straight up the best setup for most of Chapter 1, and there's some debate as to whether Summon even beats that in Chapter 1 (since Summon is out of MP after one spell in Chapter 1).

In Chapter 2, you can make arguments between Summoner with Item and Summoner with Black Magic as the best secondary for summoner.  I know when I did a solo challenge with a bunch of extra restrictions (no yell/accumulate, no Auto-Potion, no randoms/grinding) I ended up deciding Summoner with Black Magic was better than Summoner with Item in Chapter 2.  Buuuuut that's a solo challenge, where Phoenix Down does nothing instead of being fantastic.  Regardless, White Magic was never on the table.  Ever.  Unlike Item and Black Magic which were both serious considerations.  Incidentally, Yin-Yang Magic was way higher on the "competing with black magic/item" list than White Magic, by the way, because Silence Song is sometimes an insanely good spell
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2015, 03:50:25 PM
The specifics are hard to work out without hashing things like "how do you get through 'banned' jobs in a draft anyway?"

Mmmm I dunno, maybe something like...

If you don't have a editor of some kind?  Go through the class without learning the skillset of the class.  And don't abuse the stats of the class if it's like...Wizard (equip no weapon instead of a rod to lower your MA a bit).

If you are using an editor?  Not too hard to strip out generic wizard abilities, and replace wizard stats/equipment with Time Mage stats/equipment, and have enemy wizards in story battles use the undead wizard class so that they can still do things.


Although ehh...that's not exactly what I'm going for either.

Short version: if it's a class that hurts to be in like Thief, it should still hurt to be in the class.  If it's a class you don't mind being in at all, like Wizard, it shouldn't be painful to get JP in that class.  Just don't abuse this by being like "I'll be in Wizard for this fight because it's hard"--it shouldn't give you more power than your most powerful job at that point, at least, not if that helps you out of a hard battle.  Wizard is the only class where it's pretty hard to strike that balance, though.  Without spells they suck.  With spells, they are probably better than your best class (at the point you'd be going through them).  I dunno, maybe learn only Poison or something?

Quote
Basically this, except I think this is vastly underrating how powerful FFT offense is and how easy it is to have 0 resets, which makes "how fast" the real competitive measurement in question to me.

Mmm...assume there's some extra restrictions that make 0 resets unlikely.  Like...running with a party of three instead of a party of five.  (I don't want to say party of one, because that devalues some skills like revival).  Or, for example...I know that the Vancouver crew has decided to steal Elmdor's gear every playthrough (not because they actually plan to use the gear necessarily, just because it's hard to steal).  And certainly assume minimal grinding (cause that makes things harder).

I will say that 0 reset runs are a bit awkward because they really discourage percentage based skills.  Like...if you are told to get a 0 reset run, you're probably going to avoid Yin-Yang Magic, which is normally a very good skillset, and you...likely still learn Teleport, but you probably value it a lot lower.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 20, 2015, 11:38:00 PM
Hmmmm depends on the flavour of the event as well?   We haven't really had any discussion on the relative strengths based on ability to unlock in the drafting section.  You could make a hack where job reqs for everything is Squire 1 for it.

That does fuck with what counts for balance of JP costs in base FFT though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 20, 2015, 11:55:54 PM
With MOBAs on the mind, thought of doing a theorycraft MOBA draft format equivalent for WAXF.  Which is...  less interesting than it is for FFT, because the things that skew a draft vs. the in-game rankings thread feel more artificial.  In an FFT draft, you can fairly reasonably draft "late" classes (Samurai, Calc, Ninja, maybe even Time Mage) and get a relevant bonus by C3 or so vs. hard fights, and if your early game is bad it isn't particularly helped much by drafting the likes of Knight or Archer.  In WAXF, the hardest fights in the game are all early, and the hard fights late - which do exist - have the earlygame carry classes & their skills still quite relevant.  So there's a huge incentive to just pile on earlygame classes, and even a class that literally said "you win" in the lategame probably shouldn't end up drafted that high (e.g. Emulator).  Items for everybody means there's also a bit less chance of getting brutally cut off on healing, and the synergy between classes is a bit more subtle (sure, you want Martial Mage to go with Emulator, but they're both perfectly fine alone.)  So yeah, if you just take the in-game rankings thread and add +1 to the first set of classes (+ non-Alexia base classes), -1 to the third set (+Alexia), and -2 to the final set, then draft high to low, you're probably fine.

There's also the issue of puzzle maps.  And what counts as a puzzle map.  Like..  does the "escape the capital" map where they very clearly want you to use Berserker(s) count as a puzzle map?  How about the boss dude who can only be hurt by Felius physicals & magic?  I'm going to make a good-faith effort to draft some puzzle-relevant classes but assume that in-game, if a map becomes actively anti-fun without the class du jour, you'd just cheat through it and not worry TOO much.

Usual disclaimer that I'm not an XF expert (Elf is that way) and only played through once!  (but hey, I can theorycraft MTG despite not playing Constructed in ages...)


1. Elementalist
2. Dandelion Shot, Martial Mage

Obvious.  Get your top-tier offense.  Elementalist goes first since you can deploy multiples of 'em.  Needed for some puzzley maps anyway that want you to use magic and make physicals suck.

3. Sacred Slayer, Fantastica
4. Emulator, Secutor

Sacred Slayer is itemless healing, Widespread, & turn shenanigans.  Fantastica this high is weird since the class is crap, buuuut it is one of the first 4 (and thus ultra-relevant) and offers Slow Down for bosses and MP-busting for Katrina & a few other bosses.  I *guess* Team B takes Emulator at this point since they also have Martial Mage, and grabs Secutor for earlygame as well as still being relevant the rest of the time.

5. RangerStormrider, Arcanist
6. Gadgeteer, Excavator

No Secutor = Ragnar is now more important.  Arcanist is backup itemless revival & good for various quasi-puzzle maps anyway where Teleport is important.
Team B grabs the remaining "first 4" class and also gets Excavator for Switch (vs. Katrina) and various puzzle maps, since Arcanist & Excavator are usually the best at those.  (There's also the Invisible Stalkers map...  Team A has Widespread Elementalists to kill them already, so Team B would like Detect.)

7. Grappler, Royal Fencer
8. High Cavalier, Strider

Get Accelerate & Alexia hype.  Team B hate-drafts Alexia-support (Trail / Intrude) because that is probably better than taking "real" picks at this point.  EDIT: Also Drop Kick is nice to throw on B's Secutors, per Elf.

9. Halberdier, Enigmancer
10. Extremist, Sentinel
11. Nightstalker, Berserker
12. Geomancer, Doge

Big pile of who-cares here.  I guess Engimancer is nice when combo'd with Sacred Slayer Widespread for IFF very lategame, and Debilitate is nice off Extremist, and Sentinel helps vs. the undead-rushing-into-town mission.  Oh and there's that early boss with tons of HP where only Felius can do damage to him whee that's fun (but also maybe doesn't count).  Geomancer gives you Shut Out which is useful for the final battle and that's about it.

Ends up with:
Team A: Elementalist, Sacred Slayer, Fantastica, Stormrider, Arcanist, Grappler, Royal Fencer, Halberdier, Enigmancer, Nightstalker, Berserker
Team B: Dandelion Shot, Martial Mage, Emulator, Secutor, Gadgeteer, Excavator, High Cavalier, Strider, Extremist, Sentinel, Geomancer, Canine

When stripped down to base classes + sets 1 & 2 (aka what you'll have for the stretch between near the end of C1 and the first half of C2 which owns you in the face)...

Team A: Elementalist, Sacred Slayer, Fantastica, Stormrider, Arcanist, Halberdier,
Team B: Dandelion Shot, Martial Mage, Secutor, Gadgeteer, Excavator, Sentinel, Luci

Yeah, both of these seem solid enough for surviving.  Team A blows you up with magic while slowing the boss and having Ragnar (and uh Felius I guess) hold the fort with physicals, and uses SS healing / turn manipulation.  Team B has a Secutor frontline with Sacrifice / Blast for magic, uses Gadgeteer healing & MM turn manipulation, and has Sentinel ZOC.  (Although...  Asgard C2 seems like he might be a bit of an issue with no Lightning & no Slow Down.)   Team A is definitely better in the early running since Team B blew an early pick on Emulator, but Team B at least gets to own the lategame with that.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 21, 2015, 12:23:24 AM
Minor correction, Ragnar's class is called Stormrider.


FWIW, what I would do with an XF draft is what some FE10 drafts (and other FEs?) do... if you can't (or do not wish to) win a battle without using a certain class, well, the draft rules are relaxed so you can use said class, but at a penalty for each instance of the class you use. Obviously the larger the penalty the more certain puzzle-happy classes benefit.


I'm a bit skeptical that Team B would want to pick two special characters with its first go (since that means only two PCs out of your six will actually get to use anything from the first five classes chosen), although they are both excellent jobs to deny to Team A so maaaybe. Still, letting A get its hands on Elementalist/SS/Fantastica is brutal and something that they never recover from. The fact that I'm not certain there's a better opening pick for B makes me think that Elementalist is kinda OP, perhaps more than I thought even. With that magic stat and dirt-cheap Elementalist EQ they synergise sooo well with any other class that uses strong, magic-based skills.

I'm a bit skeptical about how high Excavator went. Switch has its uses certainly, but... that's mostly when combined with Fantastica's MP killing, which Team B doesn't have. Switch doesn't actually beat Katrina, since you can't lower her HP to zero. I guess Katrina 2 (who casts spells) can be manipulated into having, like, the exact HP equal to the MP cost of one her spells, then Switch, then she'll cast a spell and you win? Never tried this so it might not work. Still, eh. If I'm Team B I take Strider at pick #6, it synergises well with Secutor (accuracy boost, Drop Kick) and in particular it's range 3 that doesn't require Rush, the only way Team B can do this before its late pickup of Emulator attack spells. EDIT: except Blast, but that's only one PC, and suffering from a lack of higher-Mag carriers for a while.

I feel like Enigmancer should have gone earlier, but I'm not sure where. 4 move mage is good, Devastate is good. At the latest, I think Team A takes it at pick #5 instead of one of the two specials. Team B may take it earlier just to wall the complete domination of generic mages that A is working on... but it's hard to see where, B does not want A to get its hands on any of the classes it picks as its first four except maaaybe Emualtor, and Emulator's probably still a better pick than Enigmancer since it has a lot of the same strengths, and more.

There's actually a slim chance Crossbreed may not be last! He greatly increases the chance Team B gets past the first Samille/El Jackson fight without a penalty. ... nah. I can't see Team A taking him over any of its last four picks.

But yeah, Elementalist too strong. Dandelion Shot, Martial Mage, Enigmancer, Emulator, Sacred Slayer, and Fantastica are all good jobs to start with, and getting Elementalist makes every single one of them notably better.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 24, 2015, 03:37:43 PM
Alright, so going back to the levels...didn't get a particularly negative response about the re-calculation with elfboy's random encounter numbers and assumptions of 5 actions per fight.

So...looking at levels at the store checkpoints I'd picked out...

Sand Rat Cellar: Level 3, (20 actions)
Meeting at lionel: Level 10, (70 actions)
Orbonne: Level 17 (120 actions)
Bethla: Level 27 (169 actions)
Before final dungeon: Level 35 (213 actions)


Actually, let's assume 1 extra deep dungeon levels or a sidequest fight before the final dungeon, just so each of these checkpoints are 50 actions apart.  And ooh, minor turn miscalculation, should actually be 170 for Bethla (this is working out eerily well; other than the final checkpoint, I've done no manipulation to get these all exactly 50 turns apart o_O).

Bethla: Level 27 (170 actions)
Before final dungeon: Level 36 (220 actions)

Incidentally, one part that surprised me is more levels gained between Orbonne and Bethla than levels gained between Bethla and the before final dungeon, despite the same number of actions.  Yeah...turns out a lot of those actions in the second half of chapter 4 are just the more-than any other chapter random encounters, which happen at party level and thus give slightly less exp.  Anyway, while these numbers feel high to me, I'll proceed with these if nobody else feels they're weird.  Using these to both:

A) calculate what JP setups are possible with these number of actions

and...

B) Calculate actual damage numbers for setups instead of speculating
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 25, 2015, 06:18:58 AM
Idly, how did you end up handling the randoms (especially the backtracks that may or may not happen)?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 25, 2015, 08:51:45 AM
Quote
Idly, how did you end up handling the randoms (especially the backtracks that may or may not happen)?

I took your number of 33% chance, and then assumed 3 actions on enemies at party level.  I ignored all backtracking potential.



Now to take a brief break from things people actually care about (FFT) to...things people don't!


I'm going to attempt to calculate Twilight characters in D&D stats.

So...what do we know about Twilight characters?

Edward across multiple instances is reported at moving about 1000 mph (through difficult terrain like forests).  Various examples--running from Denali Alaska to Forks Washington in under an hour (800 miles).  Running from Port Angeles to Forks through a forest in "minutes" (56 miles), and notably faster than they were driving (well over 100 mph).  Making a 5 mile trip through a forest while carrying a human on his back in "seconds".

And some stuff that is easier to quantify in D&D terms.  Able to move completely silently to human eyes.  Able to move so fast as to basically appear out of thin air to human eyes.

Strength feats are less clear, because nothing short of fighting other vampires tests his limits.  Certainly a minivan is no problem (roughly 2000 kg).  Nor is lifting a 1m boulder and throwing it a long distance (also roughly 2000 kg).  Or snapping off a tree branch that is two feet thick, and swinging it to knock down the original tree (probably 600 kg on the tree branch).

Hmm...well, let's start with the easier one.

Bella Swan:
Strength: 8 (She's very uncoordinated, and not athletic, but takes books all over the place without noticeable encumbrance so she's not ridiculously weak).
Dexterity: 6 ("Significant Klutz" yeah, pretty much).
Constitution: 8 (Well, she's not "unusually prone to disease and infection" that a 6-7 score would imply, but certainly "incapable of a full day's hard labour" for 8-9)
Intelligence: 16 (Yeah, Bella is unusually smart; she figures out the vampirism, picking up on clues that other humans missed.  She was in advanced placement classes.  She nerds out with Jane Austen for fun.  She tricks a vampire who can predict the future.)
Wisdom: 7 ("Seems to have almost no common sense"...or sense of self preservation.  This extends to more than just vampires and werewolves, and includes walking down dark alleys).
Charisma: 13 (She's a nobody in Phoenix AZ, but her charisma stands out in Forks enough for her to be moderately popular to the point of making several girls jealous...sooo better than an average human).

Alignment--Chaotic Good?  Definitely good (her defining character trait is "martyr") and likes to prove old rules and traditions wrong, so more on the chaotic side.

(Total pointbuy cost: 1 LOLOLOL.  Actually I'm surprised it's above 0.)



So...moving on to vampires...there's a slight problem that there's no movement bonus for ability scores.  All creatures with 30 base movement speed can move 6 miles in an hour when hustling.  This is a lot less than 1000 miles per hour.

Well...ok.  There is one way to gain movement in pathfinder, and that's to be a monk.  Normal 30 ft pathfinder characters can move 120 feet when running at full speed in a 6 round turn.  That's 20 ft/second, 6 m/s.  21 km/h.  13 mph.  So...would need to go from 30 ft pathfinder character to like...3000 ft.  Roughly a level 900 Monk then? >_>

OK, strength--it seems fairly clear that 2000 kg qualifies as a light load.  Strength load numbers are exponential, so...strength score of 45?  Something around that.

Alright, so...dexterity.  What's the DC check for "with no training, jump out of a third story window, and land gracefully on the toes of your feet so that you don't snap your stiletto heels"?  Hmm...yeah I don't really have an answer to that.

OK...so there's DC checks on jumps.  But the problem is, characters with high base movement get + bonuses to jumps; at 3000 ft move speed, the bonus to jump would be like...+1200 skill bonus.  This allows a long jump of 1200 feet, or a high jump of 300 feet.  Yeah, these are pretty similar to numbers in the books.  Well...let's pretend that pathfinder did have a way to translate high dexterity into movement, and that it matched this jump conversion.  This means roughly 2400 dex.  >_>.  Yeah, sure, whatever; I really can't think of a time any of them failed anything that could be considered a dex check.  Ever.

Constitution.  Let's see...the description of 35 is..."Nearly immune to any level of fatigue, illness, disease, or infection- such a creature's stamina is practically god-level" hmm...well they literally don't sleep, don't get fatigued, and are immune to disease and infection.

Although on the other hand "Most undead creatures do not have a Constitution score" -- yeah, this might be more accurate.  Probably this.

intelligence -- definitely superhuman.  The brain has to process at a higher framerate just to make the sheer speed possible--which creates an appearance of intelligence (basically able to have a minute's worth of inner monologue in less than a second).  But reports also include being able to juggle more ideas simultaneously.  The long lives also tend to make the vampires have more raw knowledge than most humans.  That said...still within reach intellectually; humans outsmarting vampires is rare, but happens.  Something like 22 int?

Wisdom -- Well...discounting abilities (Alice, Jasper, Edward) and discounting the kind of skill checks wisdom is based off of (perception...; vampires get huge bonuses to that due to their eyes, but that's a physical trait, not wisdom)...no, vampires aren't especially wise.  To the point that when Edward can't read a mind, he doesn't know if a faster heart rate means a positive or negative emotion.  I think this is a 10.

Charisma -- ooh, vampires are pretty good at this.  To the point of "basically getting free suggestion spells".  Not flawless, people can turn on them, it's possible to resist them, but certainly "Renowned for wit, personality, and/or looks" -- which is the 24-25 description.  Most people also have an instinctive fear of them, but causing fear is also charisma based.  Let's err a bit high--unlike intelligence, where sure, vampires think faster than humans, but there's still big dumb vampires that prefer smashing things to intellectual pursuits, so it's conceivable that a smart human might be smarter than a dumb vampire...but with Charisma this doesn't happen (see: Rosalie as a human).  So like...30?  Still low enough that humans can sometimes resist persuasion.


So something like...

Strength: 45 (or more?  Unclear what the limits are)
Dexterity: 2400 (Admitedly, this is Edward/Neonate numbers.  Other vampires will be lower, but still in the four digit range).
Constitution: - (undead)
Intelligence: 22
Wisdom: 10
Charisma: 30
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 25, 2015, 04:00:13 PM
With the caveat that I'm not familiar with Pathfinder specifically (but you did say D&D, so...!):

Dex doesn't govern movement speed at all in D&D systems. Maintaining speed over a long distance is based on Con, while max speed isn't related to stats at all: it is class/race-specific (which makes sense... a peregrine falcon with unremarkable Str/Dex/Con is far faster than humans with far superior stats). Jumping is also never based on Dex.

What Dex primarily governs is how hard you are to hit, how fast your reaction speed is, and certain skills such as acrobatics (landing from a three-story fall without breaking your heels, as you note), moving quietly, and using your hands for delicate tasks. I'm certain Twilight vampires are still excellent in this regard, but 2400 is completely ridiculous. Just based on your rough descriptions I would assume they are something closer to 19-25, but more information would be helpful.

You're probably overrating the strength somewhat too. Leafing through the 5e monster manual... a kraken (gargantuan creature, can lift ships let alone 2000 kg objects) "only" has a strength of 30, so it seems unlikely that Twilight vampires are better than that. The stat appears to be strongly logarithmic past a certain point.


(Actually, in general, D&D stats tend to work a bit differently at certain ranges. 3-18 is supposed to cover the range of human experience with a distribution you'd expect from rolling 3d6. 1 and 2 cover "worse than any human" which can be a wide range in some cases, e.g. animal Int stats. Then higher numbers cover everything from the barely super-human to godlike creatures... but for the most part, don't go much past 30 if at all, and are scaled to cover this range.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: AndrewRogue on October 25, 2015, 07:53:19 PM
Quote
What's the DC check for "with no training, jump out of a third story window, and land gracefully on the toes of your feet so that you don't snap your stiletto heels"?  Hmm...yeah I don't really have an answer to that.

I do!

As of 3.X epic rules...

DC 45 Tumble check allows you to treat a fall as if it were 30 feet shorter. If you want to add extra credit, DC 60 allows you to treat a fall as 40 feet shorter. And a DC 100 check allows you to ignore fall damage completely.

I will also note that DC 120 Balance checks allow you to stand on clouds.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 26, 2015, 12:05:28 AM
A) There's a lot of issues with super-speed, in that "it doesn't really work" is the short answer.  But it's cool, so we have a magic wand that says it DOES work.  I don't think attempting to assume the mechanics of *actually* moving very fast apply, and if they did, aside from superhuman "Con" from the strain it'd place on a body (hey, vampires are magic, so we already have an out here!), it's hard to read too much into "super intelligence / processing speed".  Imagine a super-genius piloting a car at 300 mph through traffic on a highway.  Even if they are really, really perceptive at trying to plan a safe route, they ultimately have like a tenth of a second to make adjustments to not crash.  Being a normal super-genius doesn't help that much, and god forbid there's anything like fog around (something fairly common in Washington state!), so even like Int 40 (futuristic supercomputer!) only goes so far.  What would help more is expanding the super-speed magic wand to include just "naturally" avoiding all obstacles when speeding up.

B) Bella is 18 Charisma.  Not because the author is remotely convincing at making her authentically charismatic (a la, say, Kefka or Balthier), but because everybody just wants to be friends with her on meeting her or just generally thinks she's Important and should be Paid Attention To despite being a random mortal high schooler (e.g. for the villains).  That's a side-effect of 18 Cha; you carry a reality-warping field of "everybody looks up when you enter the room."  In all seriousness, this is one of the nice things about roll-play rather than role-play; sometimes a shy player wants to try their hand at a super-charismatic character, so sure, even if you can't charm them off their feet yourself, go ahead and roll a Diplomacy check...  okay, yes, Bella knows the right things to say, and her brown hair is shimmering at just the right angle from the sunlight, etc. etc. you're fine and your character just naturally knows what to do even if you don't.

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 26, 2015, 01:27:32 AM
Quote
hat's a side-effect of 18 Cha; you carry a reality-warping field of "everybody looks up when you enter the room."  In all seriousness, this is one of the nice things about roll-play rather than role-play; sometimes a shy player wants to try their hand at a super-charismatic character, so sure, even if you can't charm them off their feet yourself, go ahead and roll a Diplomacy check...  okay, yes, Bella knows the right things to say, and her brown hair is shimmering at just the right angle from the sunlight, etc. etc. you're fine and your character just naturally knows what to do even if you don't.

So... accurate representation of the books then?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 26, 2015, 03:12:50 AM
That's the point, yes.  (Met has Bella at 13 Charisma, you'll note.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 26, 2015, 06:17:51 AM
Which I also think is accurate.  In a world where average Charisma is 5, a 13 is about right for a comparative effect just by sheer inverse properties of the crowd's negative charisma..
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 26, 2015, 07:05:12 AM
Just based on your rough descriptions I would assume they are something closer to 19-25, but more information would be helpful.

19-25 definitely sounds low.  These are creatures that I'm fairly sure could see a bullet and step out of the way in response (not that the bullet would hurt them).

Quote
You're probably overrating the strength somewhat too. Leafing through the 5e monster manual... a kraken (gargantuan creature, can lift ships let alone 2000 kg objects) "only" has a strength of 30, so it seems unlikely that Twilight vampires are better than that. The stat appears to be strongly logarithmic past a certain point.

Size plays a role in carrying capacity, at least in Pathfinder.  Not sure about 5e, but in Pathfinder Gargantuan creatures get a x8 modifier on their carrying capacity.  Which means a heavy load of a 30 strength character gets into the 13,000 lbs range.  (Depends what you mean by ships I guess).


Quote
(Actually, in general, D&D stats tend to work a bit differently at certain ranges. 3-18 is supposed to cover the range of human experience with a distribution you'd expect from rolling 3d6. 1 and 2 cover "worse than any human" which can be a wide range in some cases, e.g. animal Int stats. Then higher numbers cover everything from the barely super-human to godlike creatures... but for the most part, don't go much past 30 if at all, and are scaled to cover this range.)

Ah yeah, Pathfinder was definitely describing 4-5 as "worse than any human, or any human that's not seriously crippled".

Quote
DC 45 Tumble check allows you to treat a fall as if it were 30 feet shorter. If you want to add extra credit, DC 60 allows you to treat a fall as 40 feet shorter. And a DC 100 check allows you to ignore fall damage completely.

I will also note that DC 120 Balance checks allow you to stand on clouds.

Mmmm...well standing on clouds is definitely a no, but ignore fall damage is probably a yes.  It's not 100% clear, though, whether fall damage is a joke to vampires because of acrobatics, or because terminal velocity is too low for it to actually be a threat.

Quote
B) Bella is 18 Charisma.  Not because the author is remotely convincing at making her authentically charismatic (a la, say, Kefka or Balthier), but because everybody just wants to be friends with her on meeting her or just generally thinks she's Important and should be Paid Attention To despite being a random mortal high schooler (e.g. for the villains).  That's a side-effect of 18 Cha; you carry a reality-warping field of "everybody looks up when you enter the room."  In all seriousness, this is one of the nice things about roll-play rather than role-play; sometimes a shy player wants to try their hand at a super-charismatic character, so sure, even if you can't charm them off their feet yourself, go ahead and roll a Diplomacy check...  okay, yes, Bella knows the right things to say, and her brown hair is shimmering at just the right angle from the sunlight, etc. etc. you're fine and your character just naturally knows what to do even if you don't.

Eh, if anything I would give Bella a Charisma bonus when interacting with vampires.  (Which is even explained in the books--damn near every vampire wants to drink her blood because it smells unusually delicious.  Also, the whole immunity to mind magic thing can make a room full of vampires stand up and take notice).  Although, honestly, MOST of the interest she draws from other vampires is the fact that there are vampires keeping a human as a pet and not killing her, which is really fucking weird in the Twilight universe, not to mention illegal (breaking the Masquerade laws).

I really don't think she's 18 charisma when interacting with humans, though.  Above 10, but not 18.  She doesn't smell unusual to them.  None of them have mind magic.  None of them know about vampires.

So maybe something like, 13 cha, with a large bonus to charisma checks with vampires.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 26, 2015, 07:54:02 AM
Disclaimer: I've only watched the movies...  with Rifftrax...  and while I'm familiar with the outline of the books, I haven't read them.

Bella as a transfer student instantly gets a network of (mortal) friends at the high school who are for the most part pretty decent.  She *whines* occasionally but nobody actually is mean to her or the like in a way that matters.  Additionally, it's not just vamps who think she's the bees knees- Jacob & co. all think Bella is totally awesome and should be protected blah blah blah, for the some-mortal-friend / some-supernatural crowd.

Bella's delicious blood / weird aura / whatever can obviously be interpreted a lot of ways, and I doubt it's meant to be taken too scientifically, but...  there's definitely an alternate universe where vegetarian vampires find someone with delicious blood, and say "yup, now we should never ever be around this person, because that's asking for trouble."  Anyway, even if it partially is the "aura" / delicious blood's reason for why supernatural critters just think hanging around her is awesome, I agree that it should be seen as equivalent to higher Charisma.  Base Bella is Cha 13 but she's actually 18 for all intents and purposes due to weird magical boost, perhaps.  But she is portrayed as having that 18 Cha aura in effect, I think!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 27, 2015, 12:46:30 AM
Bella as a transfer student instantly gets a network of (mortal) friends at the high school who are for the most part pretty decent.  She *whines* occasionally but nobody actually is mean to her or the like in a way that matters.

Mmm...she gets attention initially due to being the only new girl in a small town in ages (the school has like 200 students).  There are definitely humans who don't like her (Lauren jumps to mind, Jessica once Bella does something stupid; also Jessica attached herself initially because of the extra attention drawn by the "new girl in a small town" effect, but never particularly liked Bella--she was just using her).  The number of human kids who sit with her at lunch by book 3 (once the dust has settled) is...three.  Those humans being...Angela, who is also smart, considerate, and introverted; fairly natural friendship.  Ben, who is dating Angela.  And...Mike Newton, who has a crush on Bella.  (And then the rest of the people sitting with her are vampires).

Admittedly, I haven't watched the movies, but I wouldn't be surprised if the human characters didn't get much screen time or were mostly replaced with extras.  Gotta cut something to make a 2 hour movie, and the humans are a pretty obvious place to start.

Quote
Additionally, it's not just vamps who think she's the bees knees- Jacob & co. all think Bella is totally awesome and should be protected blah blah blah, for the some-mortal-friend / some-supernatural crowd.

Almost strictly Jacob, tbh.  I mean, to some degree Werewolves have the whole hive mind thing going on.  So you do have, for example, Leah Clearwater bitching about how Jacob thinking about Bella so much caused her to dream about kissing Bella.  But the reverse is also true--Leah pining after Sam had a lot of male werewolves pining after Sam.  Discounting the hive mind, though...pretty much only Jacob actually cares about Bella.

Like...let's see...opening up Breaking Dawn to the page where the werewolves are talking about killing Bella to destroy her unborn halfbreed child...Jacob objects, because he likes Bella.  Seth objects, because he likes Edward.  The rest of the werewolves are pretty much on board with murdering Bella as collateral damage to get to their intended target.  She isn't seen as important.

Supporting cast to the werewolves in La Push...Billy likes Bella, but Billy's been good friends with her father for years, and babysat Bella for years.  The rest don't really interact with her.

So...no, I don't really think the werewolves as a whole consider her important.  Jacob does, 'cause he's in love with her.  The rest not so much.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 30, 2015, 09:53:20 PM
Sand Rat Cellar: Level 3, (20 actions)
Meeting at lionel: Level 10, (70 actions)
Orbonne: Level 17 (120 actions)
Bethla: Level 27 (170 actions)
Before final dungeon: Level 36 (220 actions)

Alright, let's talk about these.

First of all, Gained JP Up in Chapter 1.  Let's say you start with 150 JP in Squire; how quickly will you get it with spillover?

It'll be 2 JP per action while Delita and Algus are JL1, but very quickly 3 JP per action once they're JL2.  If you ignore GJPU and get it strictly from spillover, you'll have it sometime around Sand Rat Cellar.  No wait, there's two of them, so earlier than that.  6 JP per action; you'll get it after two fights of five actions.

Is this worth it to ignore assuming you're going the magic route?  With your first two fights you could get about 50 JP in Chemist, 50 JP in Wizard.  Or you could get 50 JP in Squire, and then 75 JP in Chemist.  Mmm...give me that Wizard JP most of the time, I think.

OK, so assuming class hopping, it's looking like gaining about 250 JP total.  If you drill into one single class, taking advantage of job levels, you get 305 JP total.

Best setups:

1. Wizard with Summon (Linen Robe + Red Hood gives +18 MP, base MP is 21, total 39.  MA is...still 7 not 8.  HP is 25 + 34 from equipment = 59, Thunder Rod available) -- Ramuh damage 80.  Bolt 1 damage 47.
2. Wizard with Item (See above mostly)
3. Wizard with Auto Potion (technically you can afford it, but you'd need to be a Chemist with only Potion and Black Magic secondary for four straight fights, so it's not the most practical).

Other classes:

Squire: if you are female, you have 3 PA.  18 damage with Iron Sword.  Or you can use a Mythril Knife and deal 15 damage.  For males, it's 24 with Iron Sword, 20 with Mythril Knife.  Chemists are 3 PA regardless of gender.  Mages with staves will generally be dealing 18, unless they're Priests.  Thief's actually a little less crappy than most of these, with 20 damage across both genders.  Lancer/Geomancer you...won't have unlocked.  Archer is 20 Longbow damage across both genders.

So...alright, the somewhat serious one,

Knight
36 damage (30 female).  43 base HP + 60 HP from equipment = 103 HP.  Buckler is 13% evade.

Head and shoulders above the other physical classes.  I should also mention, outside of literally going all-in on Auto Potion, Weapon Guard is probably your best reaction at this point (20% evade on most mages).

And for a slightly less serious entry...

Monk
36 damage (21 female).  47 base HP + 18 from equipment = 55 HP.  (So...in Chapter 1 hats give most of the HP.  So...enjoy that less-than mage HP total...).


Classes that stand out as good.

1. Wizard
2. Chemist
3. Squire
4. Summoner
5/6. Knight/Time Mage (I haven't mentioned it, but Haste is pretty rad).

Classes that stand out as bad:

None particularly.  Most other classes have nearly identical physicals.  Obviously Oracle/Priest/Time Mage are preferable due to using black magic reasonably well.  And Archer physical attacks have range, so that's nice.  But you're in these classes cause you're training for some future setup, usually.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 31, 2015, 01:08:52 AM
Chapter 2

OK, so the level is 10.  Mages can expect 33 MP.  Triangle Hat + Wizard Robe give 34 MP.  Which means no: Meteor is not happening.

Is Mathskill happening?

Job level 4 still takes about 21 actions.  Job level 3 takes about 12 actions.  The equivalent of about 12 actions happened in Wi/Pr/TM/Or before the chapter 1 checkpoint, so subtract those off.  That's...enough JP to be a calculator, just barely, but not enough JP to have Mathskill up and running.

Is Ninja happening?  That's one JL4, two JL3s, two JL2s, 21 + 12*2 + 4*2 = 53, but a few actions in Chapter 1 are enough to make this a yes, yes Ninja is happening, as is Samurai with just the basic Koutetsu learned.

Is Bahamut happening?  Um...actually yes, 1200 JP all in one job (or more realistically 1400 JP all in one job because you're not skipping Ramuh) is helped a lot by the job level system.  It's just barely enough JP and just barely enough MP but yep, it's happening.  That said, honestly, there's no JP wiggle room with that.  Might be better to go 300-350 JP cheaper with Leviathan or Odin, and then get MAU.


Alright, setups:

Summon
Wizard MAU Odin: 268 damage (50 MP, 9 ctr, 4v3)
Wizard Bahamut: 231 damage (60 MP, 10 ctr, 4v3)
Wizard MAU Ramuh: 201 damage (24 MP, 4 ctr 3v2)

And the moral of today's story is...why bother, when Thunder Rods are the only equipment your Wizards are going to be using anyway?

(Granted, if you're not in Wizard then Ramuh damage is comparably smaller.  In like...Priest it goes down as low as 100!)

Alright, how good is Draw Out?

Wizard Koutetsu: 144 (132 with Battle Boots)
Samurai Koutetsu: 96 (84 with Battle Boots)

It's not Summon, but it might fight for the #2 slot.

How good is Jump?  Lancer PA is 7, I'll assume Power Wrist for this.  You're looking at like....around 1300 JP for this, so LJump2, VJump3, LJump8?  Something like that.  So...8 range is not unreasonable at this point.  It's no like everything else has been tabled for it.

Lancer Jump: 108 damage (8 ctr)

Is Dance happening?  21+21+12+12+4+4 = 74.  Nope!  Not enough JP.

(Bard probably could happen, but why?)

Ninja:

They have 7 speed, 7 PA.  Green Beret and Power Wrist are available to boost damage (as well as headgear)

Martial Arts + Headgear + Power Wrist: 156 (only 7 speed)
Martial Arts + Green Beret + Power Wrist: 120 (8 speed)
Equip Sword + Green Beret + Power Wrist: 128 (8 speed)
Platina Daggers + Green Beret + Power wrist: 80 (8 speed) (100 with Attack Up)

Throw Ball: 64 ranged damage (56 if you don't wear Green Beret)

I'll be blunt--wow, Attack Up and Concentrate are kinda mediocre at this point.  Concentrate gets points for boosting Throw, at least, so there's a reason to consider it.  But otherwise...Martial Arts; Equip Sword is even better if you have it.  Although maybe flails...?  Nope, not out in stores yet!

Oracle physicals:

77 damage, 2 range

Time Mage physicals:

55 damage

Not amazing, but similar to what Knight or Geomancer can do, so...worth mentioning.

Monk:

Earth Slash: 48 damage (30 if you don't use Power Wrist)

It's not terrible, but you could be a Chemist with a gun dealing 36, and that takes no training, so it's pretty underwhelming.

Hell, a male monk could set Summon Magic secondary, and deal like...40ish damage with Ramuh?  Admitedly, only enough MP for one Ramuh.  But the point is this Earth Slash plan isn't really paying off yet.  It's not painfully bad; it's not Thief or Calculator.  But it's not good either.  You're training in Monk now for a payoff later.

Geomancer:

Males have...6 PA, 4 MA.  Use MA+4 equipment to get the MA+2 = PA sweet spot and you have...

32 Elemental damage

Going for higher PA instead cause that also boosts your physical attack...

30 Elemental damage (But 64 melee damage instead of 48)

Mmmm...well Chapter 2 is the "mage chapter", I was thinking maybe Elemental would benefit from all the free MA, but...ehh...not enough.  Like...Ninja's Throw outdamages Geo's everything, while having more speed.


-----------------------


Overall best archetypes:

1. Any mage with Summon.  Like...even when training in Oracle/Time Mage, you're still going to outdo any physical setup.

2. Black Magic.  Like...Bolt 2 without MAU is still doing 113 damage at range with AoE.  If you had any real incentive to min-max Black Magic well...at least consider MAU for 150 damage here....

3. Lancer.  I think range 8 with 108 damage is more impressive than Ninja melee damage where they need to use a Power Wrist over Battle Boots to get decent numbers.

4. Ninja.  The numbers really are quite high, especially considering they come with lots of speed.

5. Samurai. Samurai are kind of in this awkward "just recently unlocked" phaze, where if you rush to Samurai, you won't have Teleport, you won't have Magic Attack Up, you probably won't have Move+2.  You won't have a good secondary to stick on Samurai.  Still lots of damage.  Similar melee instant damage to Ninjas, but with good AoE...except unlike Ninjas they don't get into range easy or have high speed, and they need to stop training Samurai to get the good damage numbers.

6. Holy (white magic).  Nuking a single enemy and then running out of MP immediately...there aren't really any assassination missions in Chapter 2, so this is underwhelming.  But like...still an option I would take seriously.  (The next best "blitz them down" offence option is...something non-serious like...quite possibly Oracles with Sticks or some shit).


Healing/buffing/R/S/M/Utility:

1/2/3: Chemist, Time Mage, Squire

* Chemist: it's not entirely weird if half your characters are still using pheonix down.  Also, Auto-Potion is an option for people who don't need buckets of JP, like Summoners
* Time Mage: Haste is really good.  Teleport is near Auto Potion levels of busted, but in a class that Summon types are happy to train in.
* Squire: if you want to get anywhere in Ninja/Lancer/Samurai, you need Squire pretty badly.  For summoners, it's not as high a priority now.  Also most of your characters probably have Move+1 now.

4/5/6/7/8: Wizard, Thief, Monk, Knight, Oracle:

* Wizard: MAU is good; you're probably still training and only setting it if you hit a hard fight, though.
* Thief: Ninjas and only Ninjas get Move+2, but they love it.
* Monk: Martial Arts looks like the premium Ninja support in this Chapter, unless you can get Equip Sword.  Also, some MP restoration.  Also sometimes a reaction ability like Counter.
* Knight: Equip Sword technically best Ninja support, and Weapon Guard is still very much appreciated by mages
* Oracle: Lots of nice tricks that you don't -need- to invest in, but you have the spare JP to do so now, like Silence Song and Life Drain and Spell Absorb.  Move-MP Up is also fine, although I think it's most attractive for Calculators in training (who might want the MP Switch combo and aren't rushing for anything in particular in Oracle).

9/10/11: Mediator, Bard, Archer

* Mediator: Invitation?  Only need it for one fight, and it's basically free.  Maybe Faith raising if you're in the mood.  Neither of the benefits of these will really be significant till Chapter 3, though.
* Bard: Angel Song is pretty good, although it's fairly out of the way, and only Ramza can go for it, which is a lot of investment for just a utility move.
* Archer: Concentrate still has decent arguments for it on a Ninja, unlike Attack Up.  Charge can be nice on a Chemist.


Actively Painful classes to be in at this point

* Calculator
* Bard
* Thief
* Monk without a skillset (Unless you equip something other than Battle Boots, which...you're pure melee, so that has problems too, you're usually looking at 40 damage melee only character; maybe 50 with some brave raising.  And...HP only slightly higher than Triangle Hat Wizard Robe mages...and lower than Ninjas).
* Knight without a skillset (But if it has Summon or Black Magic it does fine TBH.  It can use Wizard Robes, and has a decent MA stat)

Hmm....how is Archer at this point?  Lightning Bow is 6 WP.  You can attack for about 42 with that.  Eh, not quite bad enough that I'd file it under "painful".  Slightly more damage than guns even!  But it can miss and has less range usually.  Still not something to file under "painful".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 31, 2015, 01:29:09 AM
Looks right so far.

Random thoughts for C1:
-Priest is obviously better than many of the random leftover classes, and may even compete for that 5-6 slot. They do only slightly less damage than other fighters, have decent enough MA/MP for magic secondaries, and Cure alone is a cooler skillset than most others at this point (it's great economy if you can AoE it effectively, in particular). I'd certainly value it above Haste, though TM's +1 MA may make them slightly better anyway... still, it's competitive.
-I see Weapon Guard get brought up as a mage reaction pretty often, but I feel it's a touch overrated? A modest evade push just doesn't feel worth spending time in Knight to me; all the mage jobs are pretty big JP sinks. If you get it through spillover from someone else going into Knight, though, it's a nice bonus, sure, so I suppose this is still making a small case to send someone to Knight, anyway.

For C2:
-Well Wave Fist should really be mentioned for Monk. 60 ranged damage probably keeps them off the "painful" list, at least as much as it does Archer (who has less damage but more range/move).
-Yeah, Attack Up/Concentrate Ninja hype really relies on them having weapons better than pathetic 5-WP knives.
-Holy is mainly notable as one of the better ways to wreck Queklain. Obviously Ramuh still works pretty well (slower summons not so much, dat 9 speed)... but one Wizard with Holy can all but solo the fight even if the rest of the team gets wrecked by Bio/Nightmare or something. (Heck, I've never specifically set up for this, but I bet good-or-best zodiac MAU Holy actually pulls a OHKO there.) It also one-shots Gafgarion. Otherwise yeah, lack of assassination battles makes it questionable before then.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on October 31, 2015, 01:50:24 AM
I think Weapon Guard is almost exclusively pushed from an expectation of spillover JP?  I kind of assume it comes about from a mix of a character or two climbing the physical branch and Delita after JP Gained Up is acquired?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 31, 2015, 07:11:45 AM
Yes, Weapon Guard primarily through spillover is the idea.

You can even pretty easily get guest spillover if you already have Move+1 and Gained JP Up on everyone who wants it.  Gafgarion and Agrias are a-ok with being Knights.  (Chemist is the other obvious Guest Spillover choice if you're done with Squire spillover, but you can't really get Gaf/Agrias guns without taking guns away from Mustadio, so that's a big power drop.  Rafa, on the other hand, I'll make Rafa a Chemist all day).

-Well Wave Fist should really be mentioned for Monk. 60 ranged damage probably keeps them off the "painful" list, at least as much as it does Archer (who has less damage but more range/move).

Oh, trained Monk is fine.  Not like...super good or anything, but passable.  Trained monk is like...slightly better than untrained Chemist!  Maybe!

Partially trained Monk (with just Wave Fist but not Earth Slash) is still fine.

Wave Fist is a 300 JP ability, though.  Like...if you're a Ninja, and you're grabbing Martial Arts on your way through, you will never actually learn Wave Fist.

If you're a Samurai, and you're not interested in HP Restore, then sure, you'll have Wave Fist for about half the time you're getting 550 Monk JP.

Quote
-Priest is obviously better than many of the random leftover classes, and may even compete for that 5-6 slot. They do only slightly less damage than other fighters, have decent enough MA/MP for magic secondaries, and Cure alone is a cooler skillset than most others at this point (it's great economy if you can AoE it effectively, in particular). I'd certainly value it above Haste, though TM's +1 MA may make them slightly better anyway... still, it's competitive.

Hm, interesting...

I mean...Haste, if you hit 4-5 people with it, and there's a lot of flat ground to do so...

On clocktick 19, with 14 CT, your speed becomes 9.  10 clockticks later, on clocktick 29, you get your second turn.  Enemies who move-acted get their second turn on clocktick 34 (you can bolt 2 them a second time).  Enemies who move-waited get their second turn on clocktick 30 (ok, yeah, that's bad).  If you can manage to drop a spell on the enemies without moving, and also be in the haste, though, then you're....34 CT when haste starts on clocktick 19, which gives you your second turn on clocktick 27...NOPE, that's not fast enough to cast spells on move-wait enemies either.

Certainly if you're a physical setup though (Knight, Thief, whatever) getting hasted round 1 lets you attack twice before any opponent gets their second round.  This might mean not bunching up as much for haste, though.

Hm, yeah, maybe I'm overestimating haste.

That said, Priest numbers aren't great.

15 physical damage is...not much different from any other class at this point, but nevertheless still game-lowest.

34 healing with Cure (assuming your party has 70 faith across the board) is nice AoE healing.  I still wouldn't set it as a secondary over Potion+Phoenix Down on a Wizard, though--Wizards run out of MP.  (And on all other mage classes, Black Magic).

29 damage with Bolt.  Yeah, not bad.  Less than all the other mage classes (47 on Wizard, 41 on Oracle and Summoner, 35 on Time Mage).



I guess my biggest issue is that I'm not entirely sure the reason why you'd be in Priest in the first place.    Knight you might be on the way to Samurai or Ninja, you might be picking up Equip Sword.  You might just be chilling long enough in Knight to get all your mages Weapon Guard.  You might be Delita.  Time Mage you might be on the way to Summoner, and Time Magic secondary (with just haste learned) is an acceptable skillset on physical classes like Archer, Knight, Thief, etc, cause it mostly ignores MA and Haste is really good if you aren't worried about lining up CTs.  You might also be in Time Mage 'cause you want Teleport or will eventually want Short Charge.

But like...what's the motivation to be in Priest in the first place?  There's no rush to get Holy for chapter 2...or really any Priest ability at all.  I guess if you're en-route to Calc, then yeah, might as well do your Priest levels in Chapter 1, cause Priest gets worse in Chapter 2.

But sure, you can and do multiclass between all the mages fairly easily, cause they all have robes, decent stats,  and you only need 50-200 JP to have a decent skillset for multiclassing.  Priest has the worst stats in Chapter 1 (but not too bad), catastrophically terrible stats in Chapter 2, and actually pretty good stats in Chapter 3 where the extra point of speed is pretty nice.

Don't get me wrong, if Auto Potion was a Priest ability I would learn it way more often.  Priest is a lot nicer to be in than Chemist.  But like...if we're going there, Oracle can use Thunder Rods and has more MA, and thus is probably nicer to be in than Priest at this point (and certainly nicer in Chapter 2).

I'm trying to figure out what I'm actually trying to say here hmm....  Well...I guess mages are pretty spoiled.  All of them have both "pretty good stats" and "abilities I want to learn".  Priests having both the worst earlygame stats and the fewest abilites I want to train towards for Chapter 2 makes them...frequently get passed over for me I guess?  At this point in the game, anyhow.  (They pick up again in Chapter 3/4).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 31, 2015, 09:01:38 AM
Alright, so Chapter 3.  All that stuff I said wasn't quite within the cutoff for Chapter 2?  It is now!

Calculator

Wizard MAU CT5 Holy with Chameleon Robe: Deal 378 damage to all your enemies, and heal 441 HP on all your allies

CT5 Raise, CT5 Raise 2: Infinite range instant multitarget revival at half/full health if a bunch of people die early.  Notably, the hit-rate on Raise 2 isn't terrible (MA+160) just the ctr, which Mathskill ignores.

Time

Short Charged Meteor from a Wizard: 403 damage 4v3 area 7 ctr

So...here's the part that I actually really really like about sending at least one person down the Short Charged Meteor route.  Time Mage spillover JP is really good.  Fighters can use Teleport and MP Switch, and they're both probably better than whatever they had before (possibly except for Move+2 Ninja).  Summoners want Short Charge or Teleport.  Everyone might consider Demi for Zodiacs (it's only 250 JP).  Short Charge Meteor is theoretically not worth the slightly higher JP investment over Short Charge + large Summon.  But in practice?  It's good enough, and literally your entire party will appreciate Time Mage Spillover.

Summon

108 Gems MAU Leviathan from a Wizard: 351 damage 4v3 area, 9 ctr
MAU Magic Gauntlet Bahamut from a Wizard: 405 damage 4v3 area, 10 ctr

(Ramuh deals about 221 damage; that hasn't changed much.  3v2 area, 4 ctr)

Alright, so let's think about 10 ctr.

Speed 7 enemies get their second turn on clocktick 29.  Unless they move-wait, then they get their second turn on clocktick 26.

If you're speed 6, then you can expect to get your first turn on clocktick 17.  10 ctr is actually too slow to hit a move-wait opponent.  9 ctr is fast enough, though.

What about speed 8 opponents?  They get their second turn on clocktick 25.  This is too fast for either Leviathan or Bahamut (but Meteor will still nail them).  Unless they Move-Wait, of course, then they get their second turn on cloctick 23 (Meteor hits on clocktick 24).  This only applies to a few Thieves and whatnot (and possibly the Ninjas?  Can't remember if they're speed 8 or 9).

Whatever, point is, Bahamut is a bit of a red herring, and Summon builds should go Leviathan unless they're grabbing Short Charge.

White Magic

Holy is relevant!  All these assassinations!  Um...462 damage if cast from White Magic directly (with MAU 108 gems Wizard)

Ninja

Oh one sec, now I have to compute a stat that isn't Wizard MA.

9 PA
8 speed

Twist Headband, Power Sleeve Martial Arts: 342 damage (can boost this to 378 with Power Wrist, 420 with a little brave raising)
Green Beret, Power Sleeve, Concentrate: 200 damage (With Twist Headband and Power Wrist, can boost this to 220).
Equip Sword, Twist Headband, Power Sleeve: 260 damage (Diamond Sword?  Really?  In a full chapter swords only went up by 2 WP?)

It should be noted, Martial Arts is only really great if you don't want to use the Green Beret.  With the Green Beret it drops to 224 damage (288 with Diamond Armlet), which really isn't better than Attack Up.

Equip Sword definitely isn't better than Attack Up this time (Attack Up easily paired with Green Beret and the same damage).

Lancer

Alright, so you were pretty deep into Lancer before, and wanted to pick up Vertical Jump 7 or 8.  Given your job level how long does this take you...?  28 actions for Vertical jump 7 and Equip Spear.  (Why does Equip Spear cost 400?)  So...about 20 actions left...is this actually enough JP to unlock like...Ninja?  I'm...not sure it is.  (Do we even want to unlock Ninja?  8 speed in Chapter 3 is bad for Jump TBH).

Alright, so the spear is Partisan (11 WP).  Equip Axe is honestly a pretty good substitute for Equip Spear, and you might get Equip Axe for free (16 WP means pretty similar jump damage.  Weaker regular attack, granted).

PA in Lancer is 8.  Jump damage from Lancer is 143 assuming Diamond Armlet.
Jump damage from a Geomancer or Archer with Equip Spear, Power Sleeve, Twist Headband, Diamond Armlet: 198 (192 if you go cheap and use Equip Axe...not that you'd need to set Equip Axe on a Geomancer!)

Samurai

Well...it's kind of like last time, except now Samurai get Heaven's Cloud, have time to learn Teleport and Magic Attack Up, and Blade Grasp is on the table for sure.  Ok, just how much shit is this, and can I really afford it all?

1460 Samurai JP, 400 Wizard JP, 600 Time Mage JP

Ha, yeah, no, that Samurai JP alone is like...nearly 50 actions, and we had only just unlocked Samurai last time.  Well, time to prioritize.  Teleport > Blade Grasp.  And...that's probably the only really necessary concession, because Wizard and Time Mage spillover will help.

Anyway, MAU Wizard numbers:

Koutetsu: 252 damage
Heaven's Cloud: 294 damage

(I'm not adverse to skipping one or both of Murasame or Heaven's Cloud either.  Not the end of the world to delay MAU either since most fights will be in Samurai with Gained JP Up for the forseeable future).

Damage numbers in Samurai with Gained JP Up are definitely starting to be kinda mediocre however.

Koutetsu: 108
Heaven's Cloud: 126

(This assumes Magic Gauntlet, although Red Shoes are available from Alma and not too big of a damage drop)

100 is...not trash, but it does relegate Samurai to being a pretty clear training class now (whereas near 100 damage in Chapter 2 was pretty standout).

Punch Art

Let's see...Ninja stats....

9 PA.  Can get +5 from equipment.  Sure, make it so.

Earth Slash damage: 147

Yeah, this is actually the real deal as far as Ninja secondaries right now.  It's long range damage that goes on a Ninja with Martial Arts (which is still really good compared to other supports).  It's better than Throw at this point by a reasonable amount.  It's better than Jump on a Ninja right now due to Ninjas being too fast to land jumps right now.  It doesn't miss, which is something Ninjas with Martial Arts lack.


(Ok, I need to sleep; continue this later...).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 31, 2015, 09:10:46 PM
Ninja

I miscalculated their PA in the previous post.

8 PA
8 speed

Twist Headband, Power Sleeve Martial Arts: 288 damage (can boost this to 342 with Power Wrist)
Green Beret, Power Sleeve, Concentrate: 180 damage (With Twist Headband or Power Wrist, can boost this to 200).
Equip Sword, Twist Headband, Power Sleeve: 240 damage (Diamond Sword?  Really?  In a full chapter swords only went up by 2 WP?)

It should be noted, Martial Arts is only really great if you don't want to use the Green Beret.  With the Green Beret it drops to 210 damage (224 with Diamond Armlet), which really isn't better than Attack Up.

Equip Sword definitely isn't better than Attack Up this time (Attack Up easily paired with Green Beret for the same damage).

Punch Art

Recalculating this given the bad Ninja stats...

8 PA.  Can get +4 from equipment.  Sure, make it so.

Earth Slash damage: 108 (114 with Diamond Armlet)

Well...this is less impressive now that I've recalculated for my miscalculation earlier.  This is still probably the best secondary for Ninja right now, given that Jump just doesn't work at all (you don't want to be 8 speed with Jump in Chapter 3; you'll never hit anything).  And Martial Arts is probably still the support of choice for Ninja.  And if you're using Martial Arts, Earth Slash gives you a 100% hit move.  But yeah, if you're willing to shell out cash, Throw deals 128 damage (144 with Green Beret).  Without shelling out cash, you're throwing balls, so it's 64 (72) damage.  So...Earth Slash is nice to have, but not a massive increase to the quality of the build at this point.

Monk

Of course, a more reasonable path might be to rush to Ninja first, and then return to Monk in Chapter 3 when they have Power Sleeves.  How good/bad is Monk at this point?

8 PA
7 speed

Wait...8 PA?  There's no way it should be lower than Ninja?  Let me check...yeah, must have miscalculated with Ninja; time to go back and redo that.

Power Sleeve brings that to 10.  (Diamond Armlet to 11, but that's not actually very useful).

75 Earth Slash Damage
90 Wave Fist Damage

You no longer have a big physical attack either (105 damage physical attack).

I...honestly expected more.  They have power sleeve now!  But their punch is less than Koutetsu from a Samurai with Gained JP Up.

Dancer

5 PA. (female Ninjas will have 6 PA)

PA+5 equipment, no reason not to.

Wiznaibus deals 17 damage...to all enemies, 2-3 times per round.  (Ignores all damage modifiers).  Assuming 6 enemies this is 204-306 damage per round.

It has multitarget curse, of course, where leaving all your enemies alive is actually not as good as focus firing down...any target really.  But yo, that's actually pretty solid damage.  Better than Lancer.  Worse than a Ninja rushing into melee range.  But you know, infinite range and all that.  It's kind of like having a Romanda Gun and shooting every enemy once per turn from a speed 9 character and infinite range.

Know what doesn't have multitarget curse, though?  Nameless Dance.  Nameless Dance hits a status 50% of the time, and a relatively fatal status 25% of the time.  With 6 targets, on average 1.5 are taken out of the fight every 10 clockticks.  The downside is that it's random.  But on the flip side, this is technically more targets per clocktick than Ninja incapacitates.  10ctr wait before the first Nameless Dance, though, so realistically Ninja gets a head start, and Dancer probably doesn't catch up.

Dance is....actually pretty good TBH.

How about the Dancing Samurai plan?  Where you use Dance at long range to train as Samurai, and clean up at close range with Draw Out?  Is there enough JP to have both Samurai and Dancer unlocked at this point?  Hmm...yeah, looks like it, with about 20 actions to spare.  (Enough to get Teleport if you want it, although you probably want to catch up on Samurai JP instead).

What about Dancing Calculator?  Can you have both Dancer and Calculator unlocked at this point...?  Nope!  Not enough JP!

(ok switching computers, will continue)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 01, 2015, 01:57:00 AM
Guess I haven't computed

Geomancer

7 PA, 5 MA.

Twist Headband, Power Sleeve, Diamond Armlet

120 damage physical (well...I believe that's better than Monk)

42 damage Elemental.  Can make it 48 damage with Wizard Robe.

Geomancer, I'm glad you finally joined the Chapter 2 club.

R/S/M/Healing/Buffing

Mathskill, of course, surpasses all other healing/buffing skillsets at this point.

Other than that, not a whole lot has changed.  Squire/Chemist/Time Mage are still the premium. 

Dancer now exists, but I'm filing it under offence, cause it mostly is.

Wizard is becoming more and more important for MAU as well. 

New noteworthy stuff: Oracle/Time Mage/Summoner pop up a bit for Demi/Life Drain/Lich

I think Move-MP Up (Oracle) is increasing in value, as lots of spellcasters learn nuke spells that take almost all their MP

Mediator is probably now in the tier 2 level, as faith modification kicks into gear a little bit

Punch Art is now a viable secondary for Ninja, although it's not that big of an upgrade.

Geomancer is now kinda real as a carrier, specifically it's the best class to take Jump at the moment (and the best class to take Agrias whom I haven't been calculating).


Overall Offence plans/skillsets/whatever

1. Math Skill

2. Time Magic (Yeah, I think it's a little bit better than Summon at this point.  More damage for less ctr.  Investing in Time Mage gives very valuable spillover JP to your whole team.  It's still very close and only narrowly ahead of Summon even at this point).

3. Summon (While Summon and Time could be swapped probably, there's no question that they're #2 and #3).

4. Ninja (Next highest damage per clocktick.  Yeah, Jump has 8 range, and about 60% of the damage, but it also has only 75% of the speed.  The damage gap has widened, despite the fact that to even maintain this damage gap, Lancer needs to go to a carrier like Geo or Archer, which means you can't have a good secondary like Item.  Ninja is still flexible enough to work with lots of secondaries, while having lotss of damage).

5. Draw Out (unfortunately Samurai need to still spend most of their time training, which means most of their time in the Samurai class.  Fortunately it's...still pretty good now that there's time to get Teleport and maybe something like Blade Grasp or Auto Potion to negate the dangers of teleporting into the enemy team.  If you catch two people in a Koutetsu from a Samurai, you deal more damage than Jump.  If you catch two people in a Heaven's Cloud, you deal similar damage to the maximum output of Wiznaibus.  You can actually boost the Samurai damage more than I listed, using C-Bags.  And catching more than two people is not unreasonable.  The real kicker, though, is that if you hit a hard battle, you can just switch to mage and throw on MAU and be better than Ninja.  But yeah, still mostly training, because Kiyomori, Muramasa, and Kikuichimoji cost 1740 JP, and you want them all).

6. Dance (you...outdamage Jump if you have 6 targets, and you do so with more range.  You incapacitate targets at a faster rate than jump.  Dance is only really bad in assassinations.  But like Ninja it's a lot more flexible than Jump--you can get most of the power of Dance on nearly any class.  Dance is probably slightly better than Draw Out from Samurai stats, but Samurai have the panic button of "spend one fight as a mage".  Dance might be somewhat competitive with Ninja in some fights, but Ninja is sooooo much better at assassinations).

7. Jump (almost 200 damage that can't be dodged at long range is still quite good.  The bad is that you are limited in what classes can use it, and you don't get much of a skillset if you want PA.  Your options are Geomancer/Archer (pump to 12 PA), Monk/Thief/Priest/Dancer/Squire (pump to 11 PA), Chemist/Mediator (pump to 10 PA).  Huh...o...kay, I guess it really just needs a class that can wear Twist Headband and Power Sleeve and doesn't have mage level PA.  At 11 PA you deal 176 damage.  At 10 PA it's 165.  Compared to 198 at 12 PA.  So yes, there's potential there.  You won't have a skillset in any of these classes yet, though.  Lancer is a JP hog, and only just finished learning Equip Spear.  Also, if you're using Equip Spear, and you need to in any class that doesn't equip axes if you want damage, then you won't learn your skillset fast.  Still, at some point you'll have jump + a skillset like Dance/Punch Art/White Magic).

8. Yin Yang Magic (YYM is like...a collection of situational spells.  But learn them all and you're pretty good in every fight.  There's enough JP floating around to justify that now). 

9. Holy (You...actually can't get enough mana for two holies easily, so that sucks.  45 MP from your stats + 54 MP from your equipment is still less than 112 MP.  Nearly 500 damage from a Wizard, but only singletarget and only once.  Fine in assassinations, but not great otherwise).

10. Black Magic (Bolt 2 with MAU is...166 range AoE damage.  But enemies dodge now; there's Aegis Shields in this chapter--50% magic evade.  And Elf Mantles are not unheard of--25% magic evade.  And then Diamond Shield with 15% magic evade--the highest shield evade before this chapter was 5%.  The problem with evade and charge times is that your allies don't even know whether you're going to kill your target; do they need to attack it or not?  This would be fine if the damage makes up for it, but the numbers are similar to jump unless you really tried to force BM to work and picked up Flare or something.  It's still something you'll fall back on when you're using Wizard as a carrier and run out of MP for your big bad summon/Meteor).


Anything below this and I'd say the character is definitely in training.  (which is fine.  Still two more checkpoints.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on November 03, 2015, 02:36:33 AM
Random scattered thoughts

Priest, Time Mage, and Oracle I find underwhelming until after Zirekile.  Oracle can use Paralyze to shut off boss' Reactions in Chapter 1 but offers little else other than Silence Song.  Yes, one can give a Thunder Rod to an Oracle though might as well be a Wizard unless the Oracle JP is part of a longer term plan.

Monk really hits its low point in Chapter 2 due to a lack of PA boosters and better weapons for other fighters.  Still very much a mage's playground due to equipment availability.

Short Charge + Meteor already?  Guess so with JP up available.  in a magic users challenge run, I found that keeping a unit in the same class for the whole game netted them about 4000 JP.  Didn't have Short Charge + Meteor until the Morund sequence.  Wasn't using JP up and had spent JP on Haste, Slow, Don't Move, Demi, and Teleport so the Time Mage could contribute throughout.

Speaking of mages, Haste worked out nicely later in chapter 2 when their physicals are at their relative peak.  Easiest Baraius Hill battle I've ever had.  Not enough time for another attack magic sure but bashing things on the second turn with sticks and staffs worked well enough.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on November 06, 2015, 02:08:07 AM
Quote
Yeah...I don't count JP scroll as legal.  Some skillsets are JP scrollable.  Some are not, and this means that some jobs that aren't scrollable are just arbitrarily garbage.

Funny story, there actually IS  a No Math Glitchless route. It is however not as optimized as the other categories because no one really has an interest in it since without JP scroll glitch, battles tend to be more random, generally slower and sometimes more dangerous. Not touching the question of legality of the JP scroll glitch since that's not what this is about.

Rifling through the notes, here's a few notable changes I pick up on immediately:
- Compatibility matters. A lot. You are however allowed to take 2 Taurus instead of all Capricorn, although 1 generic must be Capricorn.
- Gained JP is never required.
- Mustadio and Agrias are both recruited. Agrias does not change jobs as it much slower and she cannot be sent on any Props, which your generics can.
- Holy is never used.
- Flare is never used.
- Physical classes, despite having potentially faster animations are never used outside of Squire. Holy Swordsman and Holy Knight are used but that is because they are they base class for Agrias and Orlandu. This would primarily be due to JP mapping and you do not have time to swap from Mage classes to Physical classes. Mage classes are obviously superior.
- Ramza never enters Samurai due to the above, even discounting the JP costs on Draw Outs.
- Quick is used relatively little if at all. Most likely to save proposition time as well as JP efficiency. Without Draw Out, Quick is also less efficient since you lose no charge time damage. Ramza never has time for it as he MUST learn Demi, Teleport and Haste.
- The route primarily uses 3 Female Generics with 64 Faith minimum + Ramza, Orlandu and Agrias. Most of the time, you sacrifice initiative so you can sync your CT to go immediately after and drop Ramuhs and Titans.


tl;dr relevance to topic:
- Summon Magic is most important with Time Magic as second for utility for real time purposes.

I would actually be very interested in what the DL thinks of the overarching game plan and if there are better ways of time saves. I'm sure other FFT runners would appreciate it as well, although this is not a popular category at all. Think of it as theorycrafting (like the topic title)!

Jobs Paths look like:

Ramza
Squire (Move+1), Chemist (Potion/P.Down), Wizard (Bolt, MAU), Time Mage (Demi, Teleport, Haste), Summoner (Ramuh, Titan)

Generics A+B+C
Squire (Move+1), Chemist (Potion/P.Down), Priest, Wizard (Bolt, MAU), Time Mage, Oracle (Life Drain), Summoner (Ramuh, Titan)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 24, 2015, 05:22:31 PM
Some stuff I wrote about a Heroes of the Storm match:

https://www.reddit.com/r/heroesofthestorm/comments/3y28xn/a_study_of_supports_in_an_unusual_quickmatch_game/
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: ParaSC2 on January 13, 2016, 07:29:39 AM
It seems like I don't have the ability to make new threads so I'll just post this here.

I recently returned to SC2 (again) and got interested in a new arcade game called StarJeweled. It's basically Bejeweled with SC2 units added in. I don't really enjoy playing the game itself though... matching groups of gems repeatedly gets boring and I'm not that great at the game (I average around 1200 EPM). But I found that I really enjoy making a robot to play the game for me.

Currently my bot (written in Python) averages around 3500 EPM, give or take 500 energy depending on luck. And it seems like I've hit a plateau at 3500. I've spent a good amount of time trying to come up with a better algorithm to improve the bot's performance to the mid 4000s range, with no luck. The current algorithms I've come up with involve thinking multiple moves ahead, but they're way too slow and actually end up cutting the performance in half (1700 EPM, yikes) instead of improving it.

I'm curious anyone on these forums have made a StarJeweled bot before that has broken the 4000+ EPM barrier or is interested in helping to come up with a better algorithm.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: ParaSC2 on January 13, 2016, 07:37:23 AM
Bot is written in Python and uses the following modules: pyscreenshot, autopy, itertools
All testing was done in a 13" Macbook Air with 1.7 GHz i7 (Haswell) and 8GB RAM, running at 1440x900 resolution and medium graphics

Algorithm:

1. Take a screenshot of the 480x480 gem grid using pyscreenshot and store it in memory
2. Go over each gem (60x60 square pixels) and calculate the average RGB value of 20% of the pixels (spread evenly)
3. If the RGB values fall within a given tolerance, predict the color of the gem (right now, this is almost 100% reliable if no gems are falling or text is on the board)
4. Return a 2D list representing the colors on the board
5. Given this 2D list, find all pairs (eg: two gems together vertically or horizontally, or two gems with a gap in between)
6. For each pair, find a gem that can be moved next to it to make a group of at least 3. If it exists, then add it to the move list
7. Go through the move list and calculate a score for each move (Score = Points Gained + Moves Created * 5)
8. Order the moves based on score, from best move to worst move
9. Process all these moves in order by moving the mouse and clicking


Currently some flaws with the algorithm are that some moves can conflict with each other and they are not removed from the move set (however, conflicts don't seem to be too costly in terms of EPM performance), and we don't wait for chains of gems (eg: swapping two gems and then having a match after the gems fall), so this lowers EPM.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: ParaSC2 on January 13, 2016, 07:44:04 AM
Actually I'll just post the bot code here in case anyone's interested in taking a look. It's open source on Github.


[Admin note -- link deleted ~mc]
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on January 13, 2016, 08:16:12 AM
Well, you came to the right place, as metroid was like master tier at StarJeweled...  I dunno about calling it a "new" game, though.  It came out with SC2 arcade, which was....  uh....  checking my achievement history....  September 2011?  So pre-Heart of the Swarm, still Wings of Liberty days.

Your algorithm sounds solid as a first pass, although from looking at the code, maybe I'm missing something, but the point calculation looks off - where are you adding in the chain reaction bonus?  StarJeweled hugely rewards follow-on matches off chain level & all, so maybe I'm just missing it, but that seems super-important for getting a greedy algorithm right.  I also think you might be overrating creating new match possibilities a bit - pressing the "refresh board" button is not THAT bad if you somehow lock yourself in.  I don't see logic about pressing the button, although I guess it's safe to ignore if you're always opening new possibilities, sure.

I'd be curious to see the more detailed logging about where you're spending your time, since spending time efficiently is pretty important here.  Notably, how fast is our take-a-picture & OCR the board cycle?  If that's really fast we can be a lot lazier about rankings and just take a picture of our new pieces more often, if it's really slow we need to be more careful.

As an irrelevant nit, if you want to avoid duplicates in your potential-move-list from the start, you can use a dictionary instead.  i.e.
maybeMoves[str((x + 1, y - 1, Down))] = (x + 1, y - 1, Down);
if you're using the string representation still.  (then iterate on the values.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: ParaSC2 on January 13, 2016, 09:42:03 PM
The points from the chain reaction are calculated using the _get_points() function from the Match class. It is equal to OriginalPoints * (2^Chain). Right now my algorithm delays 250 milliseconds for every chain level, so
"Good Job" results in 1/4 second delay, "Fantastic" 1/2 second, etc. The appropriate delay time would vary based on the lag. My algorithm does overcreate match possibilities. Out of all the possible moves it generates, only about half of them can be made concurrently without conflicts since making some moves will invalidate others. Currently the bot does not try to reset the board.

Right now each "cycle" (which involves screen grab -> OCR -> decision -> make move) takes about 200 - 250 milliseconds. Breakdown is as follows:
Screen grab -- 150 ms
OCR -- 20 ms
Decision -- 30 ms
Make moves -- 10 ms


So screen grab takes the most of the time. 7 screenshots a minute isn't really that fast, I'd rather prefer 20 but it seems unlikely. I'm currently using pyscreenshot module for this which is the fastest library I could find. I tried other ones but they were 2-3x slower.. I think I could definitely speed up each cycle to 100-150ms if I either rewrote the bot in a faster language like Java, or ran it on Windows with a faster computer (I'm currently using a 1.7 GHZ ultra-low-voltage processor which obviously don't help).

Here's a video of the bot in action: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/32170031/StarJeweled.mp4


Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 15, 2016, 06:45:50 AM
I'm kind-of not comfortable posting the github link on these forums (since this topic is a known location people come for non-bot starjeweled advice).  To put things into perspective, I actually try to limit how much I play Starjeweled these days, because I know when I play a lot, new players get frustrated with losing all the time and quit.  And I'm not a bot, I'm just a somewhat fast human.

5k has already been done with decision trees (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=birrSeegMYE), although the bot was never released to the public (it was just someone doing a programming project for fun).

Once you can match that with decision trees, though, you should be able to pass it by adding in some of the known glitches.

DWIR is when you swap two gems almost simultaneously in a way that would cause a match if they could be swapped at the same time...and then spam reset.  Should be very easy for a computer to do.  Described here (it's actually not something I do myself when playing, so use this description not mine):

http://starjeweled.tumblr.com/

And there's also DWIM--I'm not sure exactly how it works, but it involves swapping two blocks that don't match, having the swap fail and that somehow keeps your combo counter.  Again, not something I personally use in my own play, so my description is going to be a bit crappy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: ParaSC2 on January 18, 2016, 06:01:42 AM
Interesting bugs... never knew they existed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 28, 2016, 09:00:59 AM
http://kaitlyn-burnell.tumblr.com/post/140138643493/in-5th-edition-dd-is-it-better-to-roll-or-use

Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on February 28, 2016, 11:26:10 AM
I like that you mathematically come to the solution to the problem where as the best answer to using point but to me is to avoid drama and just for the sake of expediency.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on February 28, 2016, 11:14:34 PM
Nice.

As a DM I favour pointbuy just because it's fair. You avoid situations where players may be jealous of others who rolled better stats, or worse where some characters are just legitimately much stronger than others and it makes the players of the weaker characters feel bad.

It's nice to see the math, for sure, but in practice the concerns of the playstyle and group will take precedence over the slight differences over which is optimum in a vacuum, almost every time.

I should also point out that calling 5e a "three stat game" can be a little misleading, and certainly isn't always true. (e.g. some builds such as non-arcane rogue pretty much only care about two stats for combat; not everyone uses Dex for AC; some characters needs durability far more than others in general depending on role) And everyone is different, but personally a 15/15/15/8/8/8 stat build makes me twitch: that's going to be a lot of skills you're hideously bad at, and anyway no race is well-positioned to use 15/15/15 besides human (as you'd need a feat to improve the third 15 to an even number, and the only other race that boosts three stats, half-elf, boosts one of them by +2 anyway).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 29, 2016, 01:28:33 AM
I should also point out that calling 5e a "three stat game" can be a little misleading, and certainly isn't always true. (e.g. some builds such as non-arcane rogue pretty much only care about two stats for combat; not everyone uses Dex for AC; some characters needs durability far more than others in general depending on role) And everyone is different, but personally a 15/15/15/8/8/8 stat build makes me twitch: that's going to be a lot of skills you're hideously bad at, and anyway no race is well-positioned to use 15/15/15 besides human (as you'd need a feat to improve the third 15 to an even number, and the only other race that boosts three stats, half-elf, boosts one of them by +2 anyway).

Mmm...well I'm joining a campaign that's above level 4, so I can use an ASI pretty much regardless of race.  I.e. if I wanted to run 15/15/15, then I would put +2 to one of those stats, +1 to another stat, which at level 1 would be 17/16/15, buuuuuut then at level 4 would become 18/16/16 by using the "+1 to two different stats" option.  (I don't plan on running 15/15/15 though).

Quote
e.g. some builds such as non-arcane rogue pretty much only care about two stats for combat

Oh, well, yeah.  If you only care about two stats in combat, then you can go 15/15 or 15/14 depending on your class bonuses, and still get like...13/12/10/8 for the rest of your stats.  Rolling instead of pointbuying will give you somewhere in between 15/15 and 15/14 on your key two stats on average.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on February 29, 2016, 01:54:59 AM
Yeah, things change a bit if you ignore the levels before a certain point, though as a note D&D has often been very unbalanced if you assume that (5e not as terribly as 3e, though, which rather directly used performance at low levels as a balance for Wizards, for instance). Obviously doesn't change anything for your specific case, though.

I should also note that there are some magic items which immediately set your stat to equal to 19 and if you start in a campaign which is high-level and allows the PCs to buy/choose some magic items from the DMG (the ones I'm thinking of are Uncommon), some very abusive things are possible (set a crucial stat to 8, then get the item), but I imagine most DMs would not allow that exploit even if they did allow the magic items in question normally. (I wouldn't.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 02, 2016, 04:21:26 PM
Oh for sure, they do a pretty good job at making 15/15/15 have lots of downsides.  One step below that, though, is 15/15/13 or 15/14/14, and almost any race can use one or the other of these to get starting level 1 stats of 16/16/14.  Half a step below that is the "standard array" 15/14/13/12/10/8...which is actually kind-of hard to use for most races if you care about three stats (good if you only care about two stats).  But this being the "standard array" shows that they expect people to put some extra points into at least their top two stats.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2016, 01:54:32 AM
D&D 5e

So...the character I made was a monk (and just Monk 8; nothing terribly silly going on; mostly just wanted to try a monk since I've never seen someone play them in any campaign ever, and I hear they don't suck now).

However, here's a bit of a silly combo I've been thinking of.

Lore Bard 6+/Life Cleric 1/Warlock 2

Lore Bard/Life Cleric is a bit of a known quantity.  The idea is to use the level 1 Disciple of Life skill from Cleric (your healing spells heal for a bonus of 2 + the level of the spell) and then combine it with other class spells it was never meant to combine with (because Bards can steal spells from anywhere).  Like...Goodberry--level 1 Druid spell, you make 10 berries that heal for 1 (now they heal for 4, for a total of 40).  Or...Aura of Vitality (level 3 Paladin spell: heal your choice of target for 2d6 every turn for 1 minute--now it heals for 2d6+5, raising the total healing from 70 to 120).

Warlock is mostly there to also give this setup good sustained charisma-based offence (Eldritch Blast with some invocations--Eldritch Blast being a cantrip scales with player level).  But it also brings with it two Warlock spell slots, and warlock spell slots refresh themselves every short rest.  So...every short rest you get two castings of Goodberry from the Warlock spell slots (40+40 = 80 out-of-combat healing that refreshes every short rest.  Plus Song of Rest I guess for an extra 1d6 healing to everyone).  Also, if you're taking passage on a wagon or a ship, or any vehicle where you could reasonably short rest on the way to your destination, make some Goodberries with the Warlock spell slot (Goodberries last for 24 hours) and then short rest to your destination.

And you still have enough levels before level 20 to get a 9th level spell in bard.  Versatility isn't bad either--like...8 cantrips, all the versatility from being a bard, access to any level 1 Cleric spell given preparation (skipping the ones that use Wisdom, but that still gives Detect Magic, Comprehend Languages, various buffs--and just generally frees up space for 8 first level spells between the Warlock/Bard spell list).

I mean, this probably isn't ~actually~ that great, because you're level 9, you could have had 5th level spells right now, and you're sitting on third level spells (with one 4th level slot).  And most of your good healing is out of combat.  You have no burst, essentially.  But the amount of sustain makes me giggle (and it's both excellent sustain healing, and solid sustain DPS).


(Not sure how to justify this lore-wise.  Servant of Cthulu who wants all the world to be fed with berries so that there's tons of well-fed humans to eat when Cthulu consumes the world?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 06, 2016, 02:12:26 AM
From my reading of the rules, at least, Disciple of Life would not work on Goodberry.

Disciple of Life: "Whenever you use a spell of 1st level or higher to restore hit points to a creature, the creature regains
additional hit points equal to 2 + the spell’s level."

Goodberry is not a spell that restores hit points to a creature. Rather, it creates magical berries, which can later be used for healing. The distinction definitely matters here, since it DoL clearly states "whenever you use a spell to restore hit points". For Goodberry, the spell use and restoring of hit points are separate events.

EDIT: A life cleric similarly would not be allowed to craft more potent potions, by my reading of the rules.

Aura of Vitality has a much better case to work. The healing is still caused by your bonus actions while concentrating on the spell, so there's a much stronger case that you are "using a spell to restore hit points". Additionally, it's an evocation, same as Healing Word, Cure Wounds, etc., rather than transmutation, which creates more of a flavour reason for it to work. And... yeah Aura of Vitality is pretty amazing when not restricted to Paladin spell slots, even before this passive, which admittedly makes it even better. Same with Ranger spells.

Seems like a fun build, though. Can't go wrong with Eldritch Blast + amazing healing.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2016, 03:18:15 AM
Supposedly it has been ruled to work together:

http://dnd.wizards.com/articles/features/rules-answers-august-2015

Quote
If I’m a cleric/druid with the Disciple of Life feature, does the goodberry spell benefit from the feature?
Yes. The Disciple of Life feature would make each berry restore 4 hit points, instead of 1, assuming you cast goodberry with a 1st-level spell slot.

Of course, the DM could always rule otherwise, in which case your out of combat healing could be Prayer of Healing and heal 2d8+cha+4 to up to 6 different targets in a level 2 slot (72 healing if you heal 4 people off of 5 Cha).  It's not as hillarious sounding as piles and piles of berries though (and you need to take one more level in Warlock so that you have level 2 Warlock spell slots).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2016, 09:38:40 AM
Anyhow, so the Great Cthulu Worshiping Berry Dispensing Sailor Scout...

Is actually an interesting exception to the "3 stat" types.  This is a 4 stat character.  Cha, obviously.  Need at least 13 Wis to multiclass Cleric.  Con (concentration checks and all that; also HP).  And...one of strength or dex for AC (Priest gives you medium armour and heavy armour; medium uses dex, heavy uses str).  I think we want medium here--heavy armour gets 1 more AC, but getting a stat to 15 costs quite a bit more than getting a stat to 14.  Or if you go for the 13 str heavy armours...you can match that AC with 12 dex.

Is this a legit case for vanilla human?  Pointbuy options....

15/13/13/12/11/9

With a vanilla human gives 16 Cha, 14 Con, 14 Dex, 13 Wis, 12, 10

Although...honestly, I think it's better to have wis at 14, and one of the other two stats at 9 or 11.  Like...Wis even with nothing else going for it is a fairly relevant stat (Will saves, perception) and there is something else going for it here, which is 3 Cleric spells prepared per day instead of 2 (and better spellcasting mod if you do use any of that).

Hmm...is there an option with two 15s?

15/15/13/12/8/8

Technically yes, but...the three low stats end up at 13/9/9, which...feels like a waste.

But wait, human is actually very thoroughly outclassed by another race...Half-Elf, which give +2 to Cha, and +1 to two other stats (why two?)  Oh, and Darkvision, sleep immunity, two skill proficiencies (the fuck why?) and an extra language.  This race...why is it so comparatively OP?  Anyhow...Half Elf options look like...

14/14/13/13/10/9

Trading a point in a dump stat for two skill proficiencies and darkvision sounds worth.  (Really, vanilla human should be the one with two skill proficiencies, and Half-Elf shouldn't get those).  But wait, there's more.  If you get greedy, and try to go for two 16s and two 14s...

15/14/13/13/9/8

You...still can't!  (But the three low stats now look like 13/9/8 instead of 13/9/9, so it's actually functionally identical...while getting the giant pile of Half-Elf bonuses like extra skills.  Having a +2 instead of a +1 to a stat that was definitely going to 16 can mean two extra points to redistribute elsewhere in the pointbuy).

Mmm...I my gut reaction is that I like the non-greedy one better (ending up with 16/14/14/14/10/9 instead of 16/16/14/13/9/8, assuming we go with Half-Elf).  Although...concentration checks are a pretty big deal.  I mean, in terms of mod differences the greedy build gets CON 2->3 in exchange for WIS 2->1 and let's say STR 0->-1.  That...actually sounds like a good trade, TBH.

What about...15 str build instead of dex for the +1 AC wearing full plate, but going with 14 con?  Hmm...15/14/13/13/9/8 or 14/14/14/13/9/8 (doesn't matter which) lets you end up with 16/15/14/14/9/8.  OK, this might be better than the above.  I will trade +1 on concentration saving throws for +1 AC--not getting hit is actually a good way to avoid breaking concentration.  And +1 AC also increases durability much like 3 Constitution would.  So...let's call that a tie, maybe.  But if that's a tie, 14 Wis is a lot nicer than 13 Wis.

So is that it, then, that's the best?  Mmmm...well...there's always Variant Human to consider because feats (with like...probably War Caster for the feat?  Maintaining concentration is cool.  Not needing hands--eh, with eldritch blast, a weapon wasn't really needed, but sure.  Magic on attack of opportunity is cool).  What would this look like?  Only 2 stat increases so like...  15/14/13/13/9/8, which would become 16/14/14/13/9/8.  Or...if not War Caster then like...something that gives +1 in one of these stats, like Resilient (Con) to have proficiency in Con saves, or Observant, because +5 to Perception and Investigation is a thing.  (Obviously the stat feats Resilient/Observant let you go 16/14/14/14 instead of 16/14/14/13).  Mmm...well either of the con save feats will do a whole lot more for concentration than +1AC or +1 Con.

Of course, Half-Elf can take War Caster too, eventually, so let's look a bit longer term here.  Let's say we really do think War Caster is the shit (TM), to the point that we take it at level 4, instead of an ASI.  Half Elf is now 16/15/14/14/9/8 with a pile of extra racial bonuses.  And...Variant Human (War Caster) is now 18/14/14/13/9/8.  So...we're looking at the Half-Elf with 1 more AC, and one more Wis modifier.  In exchange for +1 Cha, which is...kind-of important (more damage on all Eldritch Blasts, hitting Eldritch Blasts, better combat heals, save DC on status spells, etc).  And this gap is going to stay for a long time...like...because of all the multiclassing, the next ASI is level 11 (when Variant Human goes to 20, and Half-Elf goes to 18).  The gap doesn't close till level 15, when Half-Elf who got War Caster would also get 20 Cha.  That's...basically forever (trying to remember the last campaign I saw that got to level 15).  There's an argument that the Heavy Armor setup when you get to 15 can't be matched for AC by the Variant Human, but the Variant Human can get like...the Shield Master feat on 15 or something, so...nah.

So...it does depend a little on whether you think War Caster is more valuable than +2 Cha.  (I think it's pretty clear that +2 Cha is better than +1 Strength, +1 Wis--technically is an option at level 4 with Variant Human to match the Half-Elf stats, but yeah, no >_>).  If War Caster is more valuable than +2 cha, then Variant Human has a big advantage all the way till level 15.  If it's not...well now we compare the benefits of War Caster to 14 Wis and Full Plate, and Half-Elf bonuses.  The full plate build is more durable (both in the +1 overall AC and in Will save).  Can prepare one extra Cleric level 1 spell.  The War Caster build can maintain concentration much better on...concentration spell of choice, and use spells on attack of opportunity (notably Eldritch Blast with the right invocation would knock opponents away--which sort-of adds to durability too, and adds to damage obviously).  Mmm...I'm leaning War Caster.

So ok: Half-Elf is silly how good it is when Cha matters, but Variant Human is probably better if there's an even moderately important feat to get.  (Basically Variant Human is better in that scenario unless there's two different Attributes that are more valuable to +2 than getting that feat...and if that's the case then the feat wasn't that important in the first place).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2016, 10:22:47 AM
Is there any other race that stands out as mildly OP like Half-Elf or Variant Human?  Hmm....well...there's Halfling.

Halflings have this racial trait that if they roll a 1 on...basically any time they roll a D20 for any reason, they can reroll it (once).  This is actually moderately significant--it raises the average value of all their rolls by 0.5.  Or, thinking about it another way, it's kind-of similar to the Vanilla Human's +1 to all stats (which translate into +0.5 on rolls on average--D20s normally average 10.5, will now average roughly 11).

I mean, ok, not exactly.  Stats can add to damage on damage rolls--unaffected.  Dex adds to AC, which this won't affect.  Con adds to HP which this won't affect.  Having cetain stats lets you use heavy armour or multiclass--this luck stuff does not help you there.

But the thing is, halflings have racial stat bonuses on top of this "lucky" trait.  +2 to Dex.  +1 to...either Cha or Con.

So...ok, Cha, we can work with this for the Super Berry Cthulu Sailor Scout.

15/14/14/12/8/8

After racial bonuses this becomes 16/14/14/14/8/8

I mean, could be worse.  Worked out better as a stat array than Variant Human (as expected when it has 3 stats to add, not 2).

Is this worth-it over variant human with the War Caster feat?  Ehhh....let's come back to that.

Is this worth-it over the Half-Elf stat array with heavy armor 16/15/14/14/9/8?  Mmm...well Half-Elf with this setup gets 1 more AC, and two more skills.  Halfling gets +0.5 to all skills, which counterbalances the two extra skills a bit.  Halfling gets +0.5 to all saves.  Halfling gets +0.5 to attack rolls.  Mmm...the winner actually isn't obvious to me here.  Halfling deals slightly more damage, but has slightly less durability.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on March 07, 2016, 02:50:44 PM
Halfling is the best class for smugness toward fellow players though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 07, 2016, 08:04:24 PM
It depends what elements of the character you want to emphasize.  If you want to push the Sailor Scout part you want Half Elf.   If you want Cthulhu worshipping you go halfling.

Halfling is the best class for smugness toward fellow players though.

Says the Elf loving Half-Elf player.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on March 08, 2016, 07:00:48 PM
I was a halfling for the majority of the campaign!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 12, 2016, 06:44:20 PM
It depends what elements of the character you want to emphasize.  If you want to push the Sailor Scout part you want Half Elf.   If you want Cthulhu worshipping you go halfling.
And what's the reason to go Human? >_>


Aaaaanyhow, I've been looking at the multiclassing spell table, and I've determined that it's a bit unfair to classes with slow spell progression.  Take Eldritch Knight--a level 20 Eldritch Knight has knows level 4 spells.  In fact has known level 4 spells since level 19.  If we for some reason were to declare this character a multiclass, though, then they would not know level 4 spells.

The reality of Arcane Trickster and Fighter is that, once you reach level 3, your spellcasting level is more like 1/3 rounded up.  The reality of Ranger and Paladin is that, once you reach level 2, your spellcasting level is more like 1/2 rounded up.

I would propose, take all the classes you have spellcasting power in (so exclude level 1 paladins/rangers, and level 1-2 fighters and rogues) add 1x full + 1/2x semi + 1/3x ternary levels.  At the very end, take the total and round up.

So like...the hardest you can abuse this is something like Fighter 5, Paladin 3, for 5/3 + 3/2 = (10+9)/6 = 3 + 1/6, which rounds up to 4.  Which means you're spellcasting level 4 at 8th level...not bad, but Paladins can do this normally, and be spellcasting level 5 at level 9 (which you won't be).  By comparison, with this same class combination and level combination under the existing rules as written, you would be spellcasting level 2...which is silly, because a level 5 fighter or level 3 paladin would be spellcasting level 2 -without- multiclassing (and they both could be higher than that by monoclassing).


Is there some really strong combo that WotC is trying to prevent here?  Like...I could see maybe the danger of Paladin smites with lots of spell slots, but like...You get Smite at level 2 which rounds nicely.  Paladin 2/Cleric X works exactly the same way under both systems.  Fighter/Rogue get an ASI on level 4, so a 4 level dip could avoid sacrificing an ASI and could contribute 1 1/3 (which can round up to 2) levels.  But then again, Fighter also gets an ASI on level 6, which already played nice with the old table.  Regardless, when people talk about dipping into Fighter as a spellcaster, it's usually for like...Action Surge on level 2, and then get out of the class.


But honestly, there's already a lot of strong incentives against going like...5 levels into one spellcaster, 5 levels into another given the spells known mechanic.  You can only learn spells that class would be able to learn up to level 5.  You want to actually have high level spells learned, and you screw yourself if you do that much multiclassing.  Seems weird that on top of that, semi-spellcasters get fewer spell slots than they would get if they didn't multiclass.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 12, 2016, 07:12:45 PM
That's a rather good point. I'm not aware of any particular abuse that your rule change would propose, and I think it's a good one, since it's more consistent with how the spell tables of the secondary and tertiary spellcasters are laid out.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 12, 2016, 10:07:58 PM
There only reason to play Human is if you hate playing the right Race (Dwarf).

Honestly, I think the reasoning is probably multi pronged. 

Your formula is too """"""complex"""""" for Fifth which is pushing that simplified mechanics wagon hard.  It exposes a lot of the moving parts to the design, you would need to define a class's spell progression rate etc. Iit is also not pushing the idea that because of the scalable spells lets you always do something useful with a spell and a spell slot down a bit.
Finally, it is ham fisted but it does hard cap potential abuse with multi classing which after Third and Fourth I think was high on the to do list, especially if invoking AD&D feels.


Not that I wouldn't say totes go for it in house rules.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2016, 06:28:26 AM
Quote
Your formula is too """"""complex"""""" for Fifth which is pushing that simplified mechanics wagon hard.  It exposes a lot of the moving parts to the design, you would need to define a class's spell progression rate etc.

But the manual ALREADY has a spell progression rate defined per class

The current formula is

[Bard/Cleric/Druid/Sorcerer/Wizard] + FLOOR(1/2(Paladin)) + FLOOR(1/2(Ranger)) + FLOOR(1/3(Eldritch Knight)) + FLOOR(1/3(Arcane Trickster)

The proposed formula is

[Bard/Cleric/Druid/Sorcerer/Wizard] +CEILING(1/2(Paladin/Ranger) + 1/3(Eldritch Knight/Arcane Trickster))


I WILL agree it's slightly harder to calculate, sure, because of two reasons

1. People find adding fractions scary, and you might have to add 1/2+2/3.  SPOOOOOOOOOOOKY FRAAAACTIONS
2. You need to remember that the slower progression classes don't have spellcasting at level 1 (or 2 for EK and AT), whereas the first formula well...actually technically you need to remember that for the first formula too, otherwise you would end up reducing your number of spell slots sometimes (Ranger 3 Paladin 1, if you were to use the multiclass table, would end up with Ranger 2 amount of spell slots, LOLOLOL).

Quote
Finally, it is ham fisted but it does hard cap potential abuse with multi classing which after Third and Fourth I think was high on the to do list

But what multiclass abuse is it stopping?

Bearing in mind that all of the full casters (Bard/Cleric/Druid/Sorcerer/Wizard) have full progression and get to share full progression when multiclassing, and have many of the best multiclassing features for a full caster.  (Like...sure, Fighter's a great multiclass option, but mostly for a physical character not a magical one).

I was expecting to find something really super broken, and...haven't found anything terribly abusive so far.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on March 13, 2016, 12:07:36 PM
Quote
SPOOOOOOOOOOOKY FRAAAACTIONS

Thats what the quotes were for.  oh noes not fractions

And... yeah I don't think there is really anything broken in what you have, and you are right in that the existing thing still is pretty gravy as a faster mix.

5th Ed is extreeeeeeemely conservative after 4th didn't perform as well as they wanted and after the really harsh consumer backlash from parts of the audience.  It is also the general direction Wizards seems to be going with its main line stuff (Magic has become quite conservative in its design in its dotage in my opinion) and well, I can't blame them after the rampant success of the more of the same that is Pathfinder.

So with that in mind, yeah I don't really expect to always find broken stuff in a space that they have strayed away from just in case of broken.  I am fairly confident someone probably even ran the same numbers you did and still went meh lets not.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on April 23, 2016, 06:43:59 PM
So I wasn't sure where to put this - MC, feel free to separate this into a separate topic, although I personally didn't think it was necessary since I don't expect a whole lot back on it. Been playing Fates and getting child units. Those who saw my Awakening file know that I spent a lot of time working out some of that stuff even though it is largely a) pointless b) mostly for the shinies. This is probably even more true in Fates because there's no super DLC that really requires uber stuff and at least one version of the game, grinding isn't even possible unless you pay2win.

Still I wanted to talk about pairings because it really is interesting. To be more specific, I'm looking at Revelations since you get to use everybody in that game, which opens the doorway for more options/permutations. There is no way to create an unbeatable/uncounterable unit. What I want to do is list out the value of certain pairings and why they are good for those that are interested. Obviously if you are going on a strict efficiency scale, the best pairing are going to be the units in which you are using. Instead, with this I want to focus on two things:

1) Ways in which all child units are feasibly usable
2) Ways in which the pairing doesn't hose the parents completely.

Side notes! I will not be considering Corrin in this because Corrin can be customized to make any 1 child / 1st gen character better by customizing his bane/boon and talent. Also, if you want to make a super unit, you are best off trying to do that with a 3rd gen Kana as she will be inhereting the mods from the 2nd gen parent for big cap stacking. And yes, I said 'she' because to optimize, you must use a Male Avatar. On the plus side, Female Corrin can S rank with any 1st gen character and you will not be short of getting a kid unit.

Also, skill buying. I do not consider them to be a regular thing since you may not have a good connection to get them. It also dilutes some of the uniqueness from the pairings. Theoretically, most skills can be bought on any unit just because of Corrin's customization - so if you had enough time and patience, you can marry Corrin off multiple times across multiple playthroughs to pass all the skills that you need. Just that this will literally take ages.

Pairings in FE Fates -
The most interesting aspect about the pairings process is that a female can only be a mother to one child*. This means that there is an opportunity cost to every pair that you make as it shuts out the ability for all the kids to take their best option since some of them have an overlapping choice (sup Charlotte). So what do you do? Well, once decision is to make everyone take either a 2nd or 3rd choice mom, thereby giving everyone some use, although no one becomes their best. Another choice is the opposite, where you sacrifice the well being of one or two kids to make the other one or two much stronger. Ultimately, the first choice is usually better. Your army is the sum of parts, not the strength of one unit. As noted before, no one unit is uncounterable, so it seems unwise to put everything into one basket. Also, by taking a 2nd or 3rd best choice, it offers more possibilities for the parents to not be completely hosed since you get more options on who they should marry.

*The exception to this rule is Female Corrin and Azura. Both characters bring a child of their own. This means that the choice for a father affects two kids instead of one. Although in Corrin's case as noted, you will want a Male Corrin instead if you were going for the best Kana possible. In no particular order...


Seigbert
Father: Xander
Base Class: Cavalier
Secondary Class: Wyvern Rider
Notable mothers: Hinoka, Charlotte

Seigbert is a more well balanced tank than his dad (better Speed/Res most notably), but doesn't have his dad's awesome weapon. Also his unique passive encourages him to be more of a support unit versus being an offensive one. There are several ways you can play him. Since his personal encourages you to use him as support, you can load him down with support skills / rallies or you can stick him more in the front lines for tanking.

Charlotte as mom -
Seigbert's most recommended mom is often Charlotte. It wrecks his defenses somewhat, but gives him Rally Strength + Rally Defense on base. On the further upside, Charlotte jacks up the physical offense of any child, so this also gives you a more offensive Seigbert, who can build Axes and carry it to one of his many alternative classes (Paladin being like the only one that doesn't support it). However, this pairing is more notable for making Xander even better. And since Xander is pretty top tier on his own, it's easy to see why this pairing is often suggested. The one downside to this is that Charlotte doesn't really get as much out of it as Xander and Seigbert. Armored Blow helps her defenses somewhat but that's only one Player Phase and she gets no boost to her iffy accuracy.

Hinoka as mom -
This creates a more defensive/supportive Seigbert. It gives you a Seigbert with natural Rally Defense/Rally Speed, which is pretty cool. And while you don't get axes, you *do* get lances. More important in this pairing is deciding what skills Hinoka should pass down. Worth passing down are Lancefaire (for damage), Quixotic (one of the best skills for any offensive unit), Rally Resistance (if making Seigbert do rallies) or Inspiration (to stack on to his personal). Hinoka can get the latter two unlocked via A+ with Azura as she will gain Troudabour as a base due to sharing Sky Knight for a primary class. In addition, this evens out Seigbert's growths and doesn't impose on penalty on his defensive stats. On the pair up front, you still get speed from Hinoka, and more Res, which is useful for Xander. Xander can pick up Warding Blow too in his case, to take out mages on Player Phase, although he loses Sol for survivability. I personally prefer this pairing because Hinoka gains more from the Cavalier class sets than Charlotte does from Xander. It is however Revelations only.

Xander's A+ Reclass
Xander can get access to Samurai set classes from Ryoma or Ninja from Kaze. Both help him out for fixing up his weak areas so it's more of a question of what you may want to pass down. The best option may be Replicate since doubling up your Xanders means he can be at 2 places at once, and 2 Seigberts means he can Rally / Support two separate groups. Swordmaster lets you pass down better tools for offense though (Vantage/Astra/Swordfaire all have some merits). Xander himself likely wants Ryoma as an A+ because giving him Swordfaire + Trample means you get big damage off anything that isn't mounted. And anything that is, you can use weakness hitting weapons and give them a bad time anyway. Still both options are good and depends on more of what you want to do.

Seigbert's Wife
I'm still working this out but from what I've got, Velouria is a mutually beneficial option. Since you can't inherent beast classes, Velouria gives Seigbert her fighter secondary, which opens the doorway to those options Charlotte provides. Meanwhile, Velouria very much likes Aegis from Paladin to help give her M-dur a slight boost and Wolfsenger can't attack at 2 range, so Aegis can be a bit of deterrrent. Velouria's also more of an offensive unit too, so Seigbert's support is definitely going to be more useful versus someone who may be in the back lines. if you went with Charlotte as mom, Caeldori can give Seigbert Rally Speed if that's your plan but there's probably a better wife for offensive options. Not sure though.

Seigbert's A+ Reclass
Shiro gives Seigbert the Spear Fighter line so he can pick up Lancefaire and Quixotic. On the other hand, going with Forrest gives you Rally Resistance and Inspiration. Iggy is a third option with Pavise, but that's probably not as good since you lose out 1 available re-class and Pavise doesn't help out as much as offensive Seigbert or Support Seigbert. Certainly makes the best defensive option. Part of this is going to be dependent on what Hinoka passed down (if she is Seigbert's mom). If you've already got skills on one side, might be better to get the re-class into the other.

Shiro
Father: Ryoma
Base Class: Spear Fighter
Secondary Class: Samurai
Notable mothers: Kagero, Rinkah, Oboro

Unlike his counterpart, Shiro personal encourages you to play him as an on point unit. He's also innately more offensive thanks to his default class set. Like Siegbert though, he doesn't have his dad's godlike weapon, so his offense isn't going to be as great, but it will still be pretty top notch. You can either have him be more bulky, or just straight up stronger. I've seen three mothers who work well for Shiro.

Kagero as mom -
Turns Shiro to be more offensively oriented.  The most notable thing about Shiro is that he naturally has access to Quixotic. And Quixotic is an amazing skill because of the accuracy boost and skill proc boost. Kagero's bad skill growth is partially offset by this and she gives him Lethality. Normally, it's pretty irrelevant since Skill/4 makes it come up maybe 10% of the time. But Quixotic adds a +15% default chance, so now all of a sudden, that becomes 1 in 4 attacks instead of 1 in 10. She also has the best strength modifier too so yeah, this is mostly an offensive Shiro build. It admittedly, probably isn't the best one because Ninja/Swordmaster doesn't really help Ryoma or Kagero all that much respectively. But, Replicating your Ryomas so he can lay down the godlike offense at two different spots is pretty amazing.

Rinkah as mom -
Similar to Charlotte, Rinkah doesn't help Shiro as much as it helps out Ryoma. Ryoma is a godlike unit, so making him even better is pretty good. The fact that it doesn't hurt Shiro though makes this a great sell. What does Rinkah give Ryoma better than the other two? Well her pair up mods offers raw defense, which Ryoma doesn't get from Kagero. She also passes Blacksmith to Ryoma, where he can carry his Sword rank and then learn LANCEBREAKER, which nerfs about the only thing that could hit him. She pass Oni Savage down to Shiro, who can also make use of Lancebreaker, but he also gains Deathblow and Counter for skills. It does neuter his offense some thanks to Rinkah's bad offensive mods, but it gives you the bulkiest Shiro out of the three.

Oboro as mom -
Kind of the inbetween option. Oboro gives Ryoma Spear Fighter and because Shiro already has Spear Fighter, he takes his mother'secondary line, which is Apothecary as his third class tree. Giving Ryoma Spear Fighter is notable as it provides him with Lancefaire, which he can carry into the Sky Knight secondaries, and if you are so inclined, make him YOLO since you can also get Quixotic for those Astra procs. Oboro's growths gives you the most balanced Shiro in terms of offense and defense, but Apothecary as a class tree means you also get a Shiro who has Replicate. Also, shouts to giving him blue hair so he can look more like IKE.

Ryoma's A+ Reclass
Ninja or Cavalier. Gee, this looks familiar. If you took Kagero for a spouse, Cavalier becomes your only option. If you took one of the other two, Ninja is probably the better one just to duplicate your Ryomas and spreading the Rajinto love all over the map. Oboro as a spouse does make Cavalier debatable since you do get some nice stuff there (Armored Blow, Luna/Aegis for skill procing with Quixotic) and you will have Lancefaire to back you up + more probable weapon ranks.

Shiro's Wife
Midori really wants Shiro for a husband, but Shiro not so much as he doesn't get much out of the deal (outside of Replicate - but if you passed it down or Oboro is his mom...). Mitama might be the best spouse for both since Mitama really appreciates Quixotic and Shiro appreciates Renewal. Especially so if he had a bulkier mom like Oboro or Rinkah. Caeldori gives you those Sky Knight options for mobility. Otherwise, Sophie could make good use of his class, and he can make good use out of Cavalier. Probably the best overall option if not for...

Shiro's A+ Reclass
Very limited choice unfortunately! Also partly what makes Rinkah betters as a mom since no one else can pass him that reclass. He gets Ninja, Cavalier and Archer. Archer's clearly the weak link and Ninja and Cavalier have merits as discussed before. Obviously, you reclass into the one that you didn't pass/marry into. But if you married Kagero and then had Shiro marry Sophie, then the only class he can gain access to is Archer, which he doesn't have much use for. I guess Quick Draw is okay, but that's kinda of shallow.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on April 25, 2016, 04:01:28 PM
Dwyer
Father: Jakob
Base Class: Troudabour
Secondary Class: Cavalier
Notable mothers: Azura, Beruka, Selena, Peri

Dwyer's in a really odd place. His overall growths are extremely average by default, so he really relies on having a good mother to be better. On the other hand, he's helped by one major supporting factor: If you are playing as FeMC, Jakob is your primary retainer, and he will very likely be able to build support ranks much faster, which means his availability is very good (unlike some of the other kids) and can theoretically can get a first choice mom before anyone else. He's probably actually the first case where you need to decide if you want to give him his best mom or if you're okay with him taking a worse one to benefit everyone else. In the end, he's supposed to be a hybrid attacker, but he's better off as a physical unit just due to his secondary class or a support unit like the steward that he is.

Azura as mom -
One of Dwyer's big problems is his iffy Skill. He's decent in most other areas, but his Skill growth can really use a boost and he will appreciate having more Speed and Luck too. Azura helps him out with all these areas. Not only that, but she sets him up to be a good rally unit (passing down Rally Speed) and gives you two mobile flying staff users through Jakob and Dwyer himself later on. Also helps that Sky Knight classes uses Lances, so Dwyer can carry that Lance rank through his other classes too.

Beruka as mom -
A much tankier Dwyer who can also work as a Rally unit. It helps him out with his Skill problem due to Beruka's high growths there and he gets Rally Defense out of the deal + Flight. This focuses on further developing the physical end of his stats but costs you some speed in the end.

Selena/Peri as mom -
Both of these options are the tertiary options, where you stick Dwyer with leftovers. Both work but give you a different Dwyer. Selena ups his Bulk pretty notably (overall boost to all defenses and speed) while Peri ups his physical offense. Selena passes down an arguably better class tree through 3 breakers versus Peri who passes down Dark Mage which doesn't really help Dwyer as she kills his Mag growth.

Jakob's A+ Reclass
Archer and that's it. He can actually support other units, but Jakob gets nothing out of them cause they all pass down Cavalier and unfortunately, Cavalier is his own Secondary. On the upside, since Jakob's only reclass is Archer, you can actually help out Dwyer's low skill really easily by passing down Certain Blow. This then frees up Azura/Beruka somewhat and you can take one of the other females for Jakob's spouse without completely hosing him over in his weakest stat.

Dwyer's Wife
The rally unit has it easy because you can simply go for a wife that provides the rally that you need the most. For the record, Azura!Dwyer gives you Rally Speed and Resistance, so taking Rhajat and friending Percy gives you both Rally Magic and Rally Defense. Want Strength instead? Then you can marry Velouria! An attacking Dwyer has it harder. He's more likely to play second fiddle in this case, and may want to focus more on who to pass his Class down to since most physical units will appreciate Tomebreaker and Inspiration is always cool.

Dwyer's A+ Reclass
Kiragi's the obvious one for the before mentioned Certain Blow. But if you passed that down to him via Jakob, then you can take Asugi for Ninja or Percy for Wyverns. Asugi's the clear winner due to Ninja upping the Speed/Skill growth and gaining you Shurikenfaire. You would take Wyverns if you're going for a more support oriented build through Rally Defense.

Midori
Father: Kaze
Base Class: Apothecary
Secondary Class: Ninja
Notable mothers: Azura, Mozu, Setsuna

The bane of online players everywhere, at least one part of it. Midori is similar to Dwyer. She's in a really odd place in that by herself, she's not great. To get the most use out of her, you have to pass down a bunch of useful things to her, including a good mom. The difference though is her passive. Lucky Charm is pretty great (compared to Born Stewart) as it sets up things like 90%+ Miracles or turns Midori into an efficient farmer if you know you're going to be doing at least a little grinding. That might be where she will end up being if you don't want to use her for combat. She's probably the first case where using FeMC as the mother makes a whole lot of sense as you can fix some of her iffier areas, while giving her the skills that make her better.  If you're not spending a lot of resources on her, then she just ends up sort of average. A case of where putting a lot of resources  can transform into an amazing payoff.

Azura as mom -
This is another case where Azura's growths can really help save the day. Midori wishes she has slightly more speed and slightly more Resistance. Azura does both, and for those of you that like grinding, gives her (and her son by extension) a meaty +7 Speed cap. Sky Knight can fix those other stat issues and can carry lances out of Merchant. In addition, Azura is the only case, where you can pass Miracle to Midori without needing to resort to skill buying if you're looking at her best mothers. The main downside to this is that Kaze and Azura don't really like each other's primary class (Kaze doesn't get much out of Falcon Knight and Azura doesn't get much from Ninja). And before you say 'Replicate', you can't Replicate Sing. Sadness.

Mozu as mom -
Similar to Azura, you do this pairing mainly to help out with Growths, due to Aptitude. Aptitude Midori is really strong and she can get Bowfaire/Quixotic from Mozu. However, Miracle is harder to come by and you will need to skill buy it either online or through a separate playthrough to get it as Midori's own reclass/marriage options cannot acquire it. Kaze doesn't really get much out of Archer, but Mozu doesn't mind Ninja much, so its probably a better reclass option. As a further upside, Mozu fixes up Kaze's negative Luck cap making your Miracle Midori proc more reliably.

Setsuna as mom -
Passes down Archer, all the Speed Midori will ever need and the Res is pretty good! On the downside, Midori doesn't benefit as much long term since the Archer's skills are a bit weak-ish outside of Bowfaire if you're not lacking Skill. And of course, this doesn't set up Miracle if you're into that. Setsuna also gets nothing out of Marriage from this (Ninja is her secondary) so this hurts the parents more, but gives you a better Midori out of the gate.

Kaze's A+ Reclass
Pretty limited. Kaze only gets Cavalier from all his support options. If you're not marrying Peri, then its definitely useful. Otherwise, it's pointless. As for what to pass down, well, Aegis is a good option, but so is Luna to take advantage of Midori's Skill. Armored Blow, not so much since she will be likely be ranged, but if you want something more definitive versus a proc, go for it.

Midori's Husband
As mentioned, Shiro is probably the spouse Midori wants the most. It gives her Spear Fighter and she gets out of the Deal: Basara for increased Luck, Lancefaire, Quixotic to boost procs (stacks with Lucky Charm), Rend Heaven and 2 Seals, which if you want to use her as support, works great. Basically, that one class tree pretty much fixes everything that you want (short or long term). Past that, she can marry Dwyer/Forrest if you want Tomebreaker or Kiragi for Bowfaire boosting (assuming Setsuna was not her mom).

Midori's A+ Reclass
If you don't have Miracle from inheritance but want it, well...sorry, you're out of luck. So yeah, better hope that her parents can pass it down somehow! On the other hand, you can get Basara from Selkie to get half the package Shiro would give. Midori's only other reclass is Dark Mage which doesn't work well at all with her (since she has no magic growth to start), but you could take Bowbreaker and Lifetaker for additional skills.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on April 30, 2016, 04:24:50 PM
Ignatius
Father: Benny
Base Class: Knight
Secondary Class: Fighter
Notable mothers: Beruka, Oboro, Camilla

Iggy reminds me a lot of Oswin growth wise. Unlike Benny, he does have some semblance of speed, but Strength and Defense are still his better stats. He's basically a slightly faster version of Benny at the cost of some defenses, but still plenty strong, especially once class growths are added on top of his personal. He's also one of the harder kids to really fix because of Benny passing down a -2 Speed modifier. Given this, Ignatius actually doesn't compete with most other characters for his preferred mother (usually). On the other hand, because he is harder to fix, he usually also ends up being often neglected as he doesn't bring anything else that his dad can't do outside of better caps.

Beruka as mom -
This is one of those pairings that looks awful on paper but works out in practice. Beruka also has the same bad speed modifier of -2 and she really doesn't bring up his growth in that stat either, so you are guaranteed to get a slow Iggy. Yet at the same time, this doesn't matter. Why? Wary Fighter and Iggy pretty much gets this instantly if you are about Level 20/5 when you go recruit him (the earlier the better). Just as it does for Benny, it kills Double Attacks so all of sudden, you've found a way to a) make the -2 speed mod from both Benny and Beruka trivial b) stacked up his defensive modifiers so he ends up being very tanky c) given everyone access to class options they want. Benny loves Wyvern Rider because he can go to Wyvern Lord with the exact same weapon classes and gain much more mobility, although at the cost of arrow weakness. All the classes he has also gets to use Axes, so that Axefaire on Berserker and Trample from Malig Knight become devastating, which is good because Benny would only hit once. For Beruka, she gets Knight's class tree and Wary fighter can help make her AS not matter. This is important since if you are trying to utilize her passive, many of the 1-2 range weapons have a steep AS penalty. Wary Fighter makes them a non-issue. You end up with two rather tanky units and a strong defensive kid out of this package. Later on, you also get Pavise and Beruka's high skill can make that come out decently.

Oboro as mom -
Since Benny and Beruka pretty much want to marry each other, these other pairings don't matter as much but probably still worth a mention. Oboro works as a secondary mom if you're not interested in slapping Wary Fighter on Iggy. In return, Spear fighter is a great class tree and works for Benny for giving him Lancefaire and Quixotic so Pavise can proc more often. Benny's atrocious speed means he has almost no avoid, so Quixotic's double edgedness almost doesn't matter. You also get a bunch of seals which makes attacks on Benny when he's tanking very devastating. Oboro doesn't get as much out of this since she actually has speed so Wary Fighter isn't as big of a boon as it is for Beruka. However, she does get Pavise and Armored Blow. Iggy ends up being faster and has access to two faire skills and can swap as needed.

Camilla as mom -
While Oboro is Revelations only, Camilla is available on Conquest, but like the above, this likely won't come up because almost no one else would want Beruka and too many people would want Camilla. Camilla gives the same advantages to Benny as Beruka does. The downside is that Camilla doesn't make good use out of Knight (although Pavise/Armored Blow helps) and it wastes Camilla's magic growths on Iggy, who wants to be nowhere near a magic weapon as he has pretty much no natural growth there. Still, if you've paired up Beruka with someone else, Camilla does work for both Benny and Iggy and Camilla is going to be a great unit regardless so the hosing doesn't hurt her all too badly.

Benny's A+ Reclass
Pretty limited IIRC. He actually gets nothing on Conquest because Keaton and Arthur are both jerks and pass him Fighter, but Benny has Fighter secondary so he won't get a parallel class. The only reclass he actually has is Diviner from Hayato on Revelations. While Benny makes zero use out of Onmoyoji, he doesn't mind Basara since he carries his lance ranks there and can acquire Quixotic and Rend Heaven, which you would need to marry Oboro to do otherwise. He can then pass on one of these to Iggy. For the record, Beruka can pass the other half to Iggy too because she can also A+ Oboro. Now ain't that great?

Ignatius's Wife
Not very many people in the second gen make great use out of Knight other than Iggy since they all have some semblance of speed. Most of the women in particular are going to be quite fast and the one that you might think of as being a little sluggish (Velouria) can overcome her problems with a good mother. To make matters worse, Velouria also has Fighter secondary so Iggy would get nothing out of the deal. His best partner might actually be Caeldori although it is Revelations only.  As strange as it might sound, a tanky Caeldori will have lower offensive stats and wouldn't mind the extra bulk the Knight classes give her. In return, she passes Sky Knight classes to him. In particular, there's Warding Blow, which adds a tremendous amount of Res on Player Phase and Rally Speed, which he makes surprisingly good use of if Beruka/Camilla is his mother. He will get Rally Strength/Defense by default, so adding Speed gives you a Tri-fecta of great Rally boosts.

Ignatius's A+ Reclass
Unlike his marriage choices, Iggy actually gets more from reclassing. You've got Wyvern Rider from Percy, Cavalier from Seigbert, Troudabour from Forrest and Ninja from Asugi. Wyvern Rider should be the obvious one if you've picked a mother other than Beruka /Camilla. Past that though, the others all have some merits. Cavalier adds Aegis to Iggy's natural Pavise, Troudabour gives you Insipiration and Rally Res, which makes Iggy more supportive, and adds more utility when holding a chokepoint. You also get Tomebreaker for those pesky mages which can stack with Warding Blow if you're worried about them. Ninja however might be the best option. You end up with Replicate to double his presence, Poison Strike to weaken enemies even if you can't OHKO, and of course Lethality to stack with Quixotic assuming you've passed it down from Benny. Lots of good options here. 

Caeldori
Father: Subaki
Base Class: Sky Knight
Secondary Class: Samurai
Notable mothers: Oboro, Hinoka

Oh hey, it's not!Cordelia. Unfortunately, as much as Subaki thinks he's Mr.Perfect, his use is pretty limited. If you want to get Caeldori, you pretty much have to marry Subaki off while he's still useful. Otherwise you relegate to grinding. This can hurt Caeldori as it can hurt her skill inheritance. On the other hand, she's much more useful than him, and getting her earlier helps a lot more in this case since Subaki pretty much obsoletes himself pretty quickly. As a result, like Iggy, she's often one of the more neglected kids. Either comes in too late, requires too much grinding or doesn't get anything cool from inheritance. Oh, and Subaki passes down unimpressive mods too. DAT +3 SKILL THO.

Oboro as mom -
Of all the women that Subaki can marry, he wants Oboro the most. Not only does Subaki want Oboro, Caeldori really wants Oboro to marry her father too. The main reasons for this? Class tree inheritance. Oboro gives Caeldori Spear Fighter, which means she gets Lancefaire, 2 Seals, Rend Heaven and Quixotic. All these skills are very useful since both Caeldori and her dad have Sky Knight as a default. As for mods, Oboro doesn't provide any significant pluses on offense, which is important if you're looking at making use out of Prodigy. It's at most pretty much a +3 to offense if you're attack power is lower so you can't have too high of a cap in either Strength or magic if you want to try and make it active. So this works out pretty well for all parties except for Oboro herself. She doesn't have much use for Sky Knight, but at least it will give her more Res growth so she can become a more well rounded tank.

Hinoka as mom -
Marrying two primary sky knights results in a parallel class to both. In this case, you get Troudabour for both Subaki and Hinoka. Hinoka honestly doesn't mind this and because you have the same primary, it will pass down Hinoka's secondary which in this case is still Spear Fighter! Pretty cool actually. The main downsides are the opportunity cost (as mentioned Seigbert wants Hinoka as his mother too) and that for mods, you get less defense, more magic defense and slightly more offense. However, the main reason you might want this is obviously the hair color. Don't you want to make Not!Cordelia look more like Cordelia and at the same time make her still relatively useful and not hose either parent?

Subaki's A+ Reclass
You've got Niles on Revelations and Azama by default. Azama's actually pretty cool because Great Master also uses Spears. Thank god, because if I can make using Subaki less awful, then let's make that choice. And the skills aren't too bad either. You can actually pass Counter Magic and Counter if you've picked Oboro as his spouse. Or you can pass the more reliable and ever helpful Renewal. Due to staves healing typically less than past FEs, self healing is pretty cool for staying healthy and saving actions on Player Phase. If you make Niles his buddy, passing Pass seems like the obvious move, although Caeldori won't mind Lucky 7s or Move+1 either for better avoid/mobility.

Caeldori's Husband
See above. Caeldori can make some use out of being bulkier so marrying Iggy for Knight classes do work for her. If you are missing Spear fighter and want to keep her as a Falcon Knight towards the end, marrying Shiro seems like the obvious option. Dwyer can also work, but helps him more than it helps her and you would mainly do it only for Rallying, but is an option on the table.

Caeldorii's A+ Reclass
Lots of good choices here as opposed to marriage. You've got Mitama for Shrine Maiden, which has Renewal and Counter Magic. You also get 2 additional Rallies out of the deal, so if you're trying to turn Caeldori into more of support, this is certainly a decent option. You've got Sophie, which if you want a tankier Caeldori is your best bet. Even if you marry Iggy, you get Aegis out of this deal and since Caeldori would get Pavise, you can get Aegis/Pavise, which is something that not a lot of characters can do. For fun, you can also stack Counter Magic and Counter from her parents, making her very annoying to kill. Finally, there's also Diviner from Rhajat. Onmoyoji probably isn't going to be winning any points, but if you're missing out on Spear fighter, you can at least pick up Basara from her for Rend Heaven and Quixotic.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on May 07, 2016, 05:01:40 AM
Something about Fates that is a bit different than Awakening optimization is that grinding out off-class skills feels way, way more annoying.  Awakening has EXPonential Growth which means you can Second Seal over to a class that is wholly horrible, get the skills you want, and get out reasonably fast even if the character is fairly helpless in it.  I got Tomebreaker/Vengeance on Cordelia & Aversa without TOO much pain via giving them some side grinding this way (Sorc Cordelia is noooot really a good idea).  The XP map in Fates is not nearly so nice as to send only non-aggressive bags of XP at your character, and has enemies that will actually attack you.   Additionally, Eternal Seals are crazy expensive and require grinding Ghostly Gold a lot if you didn't do the cross-classing in the main game.   If you want to grind the character up in the normal storyline...   I guess this is okay if it's an underlevel character in Birthright/Revelation, as you can use Challenge or Scout maps, but it's really annoying if you don't do this, or on Conquest.  Take an example that requires no breeding, marriage, or friendship silliness at all: Xander can get Trample by switching to Malig Knight.  But...  part of the reason to use Xander is to use Siegfried.  Which he can't do in Malig Knight.  And he needs to be there for 4 levels somewhere in L11-L19, a part of the game that does not screw around.  UGH.  Do not want.  It's similar with a lot of potentially useful skills that you can get via marriage/friendship...  yes, I'd like that skill, but I don't want to go to an E weapon rank for several levels and lose whatever niche this character was filling.  (Less of a concern if you've raised a diverse force larger than the deploy limit, of course, but a big problem if you've only been leveling the deploy max count of characters.)

As a side note, I realize that you're taking into account both "normal game" and "optimized future DLC / PvP", but for Rally skills on males, I'd definitely only want to hype Rallys good for normal usage that don't require crazy cross-classing.  If we're gonna go optimized, skip the cRAzY cross-classing and just get a Fell Brand for Rally Spectrum instead.  Bang, optimal Rally achieved, thx Grima.

Hinoka as mom -
Marrying two primary sky knights results in a parallel class to both. In this case, you get Troudabour for both Subaki and Hinoka. Hinoka honestly doesn't mind this and because you have the same primary, it will pass down Hinoka's secondary which in this case is still Spear Fighter! Pretty cool actually. The main downsides are the opportunity cost (as mentioned Seigbert wants Hinoka as his mother too) and that for mods, you get less defense, more magic defense and slightly more offense. However, the main reason you might want this is obviously the hair color. Don't you want to make Not!Cordelia look more like Cordelia and at the same time make her still relatively useful and not hose either parent?

Tide, speaking truth.  Definitely an issue for Subaki IMO; I was thinking maybe a Sakura match early myself, since hey, Dark Flier/Falcon is an iconic class so having a good magic score should be fine for Caeldori.  But nope, he's kinda locked to marrying Hinoka, a red-haired Corrin-F, or Selena (Revelation only) to get the frue Caeldori experience.  And his support with Hinoka has so far been pretty boring in my Birthright playthrough.  OH WELL.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on May 07, 2016, 05:40:32 AM
-FWIW with Xander you can at least spend two of those levels in Wyvern Lord where he at least has a lance rank (and Javelins aren't -that- much worse than Siegfried when Xander can't really double much anyway... worse, to be sure, but he can still serve is same basic role). If you play your cards right you can probably spend just 1.1-2 levels in Malig Knight and while they'll suck you can probably manage to do this on one of the easier paralogues if you really want. Or if you don't want to spend an extra heart seal, you can also blow an arms scroll giving him access to Hand Axes from day 1 in Malig Knight (which at least keeps value if he heads back to Great Knight rather than Paladin).

-Selena as Caeldori's mom gives me some weird circular pseudo-incest vibes which I'd rather avoid. For all that, without having actually read their supports, Selena/Subaki strikes me as a potentially hilarious match.

The downside is that Camilla doesn't make good use out of Knight (although Pavise/Armored Blow helps)
-Great Knight gives Camilla access to a job which still has axe rank and above average move, which is nice enough as an option if you want to avoid arrows with her, for all that I think Hero/Berserker especially are of more value to her (though she can get one or both of these quickly and easily through her retainers).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 14, 2016, 05:34:46 PM
Yes, yes, everyone wants me to post about the Tavern Brawl, which is amazing.

Truth be told the meta hasn't stabilized yet.

Like...the most popular decks are mech Hunter and probably Freeze Mage for #2.  You can beat both decks almost 100% of the time with Elemental Destruction and Antique Healbot.  I'm also a fan of Upgrade and Mana Wraith, as Mana Wraith comes down the turn before mech decks combo out.  It has a bad matchup against freeze mage, but I found out recently that it's actually winnable.  You just never pop their Ice Block, always armor up at every opportunity, and hope their hand fills up with ice blocks.  Not 100%, but better than the near 0 winrate I had when I tried to run them out of ice blocks.  (Faster decks like Target Dummy Bolster can consistently run them out of ice blocks, but Mana Wraith Upgrade was popping the first ice block on turn like...6-7?)  Also worth noting, to get that near 100% winrate against mech hunter, you need to coin mana wraith when you have coin, because while you can kill a turn 2 mechwarper which most of them won't run into a weapon, that requires 3 mana of upgrading which means you wouldn't be able to stop their turn 3 from happening.

Interestingly, the mana wraith decks are bad against the other aggro variants that focus more on 1 drops (Mana Wyrm, murlocs) because they get creatures out before mana wraith comes down, and can often trade profitably with a mana wraith.  On the flip side, if they're like...innervate + anything that costs 10 mana, you win.

Elemental destruction+Healbot just loses to anything with lategame value.  (Like...even Innervate + Loatheb is pretty hard to deal with).  Like...I faced a fist of Jaraxxus deck with that new 2 drop that discards a card when you play it, and draws a card when it dies.  Sure, I can clear their board, but then they draw 3 cards, and fist me in the face a bunch.

The other decks I've tested heavily are murlocs (similar to mechs in the meta, but die more to whirlwind decks).  Target Dummy + Upgrade (pretty solid against a lot of decks; have about a 25% winrate against mech hunter, though, as they can only win with coin, and still need to draw near perfect.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on May 14, 2016, 11:39:21 PM
As a side comment, Naturalize / Coldlight Oracle is *hilarious* vs. freeze mage.  What a shame that I popped your Ice Block on my turn by Naturalizing my own murloc, time for you to draw into another Fatigue hit before you can recast it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on May 16, 2016, 04:04:00 PM
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Something about Fates that is a bit different than Awakening optimization is that grinding out off-class skills feels way, way more annoying.  Awakening has EXPonential Growth which means you can Second Seal over to a class that is wholly horrible, get the skills you want, and get out reasonably fast even if the character is fairly helpless in it.

Agreed there, but I think it has more to do with how they tried to fix grinding by making, as you noted, the DLC maps to actually require some effort. Both the gold and XP maps can kill you so you have to work a bit more for the broken if you so desire. I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, I think its great that those maps at least make you think a little yet on the other, it kind of ruins the point of them. However, due to the grinding being a bit more difficult, it does make relative availability and ease of recruitment a consideration. It's why I think the comparison between Dwyer and Midori is so interesting.

Dwyer often gets neglected and is considered bad by like almost everyone who does post game. However, he's also probably the kid you are most likely to recruit and his paralogue is really easy. Meanwhile, some people consider Midori to be broken (lolwut) despite the fact that the set up in question literally takes a dozen hours to set up.

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But...  part of the reason to use Xander is to use Siegfried.  Which he can't do in Malig Knight.  And he needs to be there for 4 levels somewhere in L11-L19, a part of the game that does not screw around.  UGH.  Do not want.  It's similar with a lot of potentially useful skills that you can get via marriage/friendship...  yes, I'd like that skill, but I don't want to go to an E weapon rank for several levels and lose whatever niche this character was filling.
 

That's part of the reason why I mention some of the pairings even though people usually don't when recommending something. E rank is awful. D is kind of where you want to be at least, but getting past the E phase is painful - especially if you are using a 1 range weapon vs 1-2 range. Compare Charlotte versus Hinoka as Xander's spouse. Sure, Sky Knight might not be the best class for Xander, however, he can carry his Lance ranks into both classes. Meanwhile, with Fighter secondary, Berserker pretty much forces you to start from scratch, even if Axefaire is great skill to take into the Wyvern classes.

The best way I would recommend is what NEB suggested. Using an Arms Scroll there is probably worthwhile. You'll get access to Hand Axes and effective weapons (such as  the Hammer) and can use Irons, which can at least activate proc skills if you have those set. If you married Charlotte to him, then you get the benefit going into Hero and Zerker too.


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As a side note, I realize that you're taking into account both "normal game" and "optimized future DLC / PvP", but for Rally skills on males, I'd definitely only want to hype Rallys good for normal usage that don't require crazy cross-classing.  If we're gonna go optimized, skip the cRAzY cross-classing and just get a Fell Brand for Rally Spectrum instead.  Bang, optimal Rally achieved, thx Grima.

Rally Spectrum stacks with the separate Rallies, so truly optimized Rallies needs both the individual ones and Spectrum (for +6 stats). The ones that I have mentioned for Seigberg and Dwyer are relatively painless. Seigbert can Offspring Seal into Great Knight to get ranks in all 3 melee weapons, while Dwyer will have some magic basis for Strategist to pick up Rally Resistance and can get Rally Speed passed to him if necessary from Azura.   Interestingly, Rally Spectrum has 4 range instead of the 2 from individual Rallies but the boost is only +2 instead of +4 now. Individual rallies are still worth learning if you know which ones you'll like to take versus just taking Spectrum.

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Great Knight gives Camilla access to a job which still has axe rank and above average move, which is nice enough as an option if you want to avoid arrows with her, for all that I think Hero/Berserker especially are of more value to her (though she can get one or both of these quickly and easily through her retainers).

I completely forgot about Great Knight because as much as it is a mobile tank, Camilla has access to Wyvern Lord which is basically better in that department sans arrows weakness. Although Great Knight merely swaps vulnerabilities (Armored + Beast vs. Flying + Dragon), Bows are clearly much more prevalent than Beast Killers/Hammers so yeah, I agree there. Also, complete control of the Triangle is pretty cool.

For the record, I agree that Hero and Berserker are better. Interestingly, Keaton gives that class line to her (or she can get it from Beruka as you noted) and she is also Velouria's preferred mom. Three guesses as to who Keaton is marrying!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 29, 2016, 07:29:00 AM
D&D 5e

Yes, yes I'll get back to politics at some point.

But...while I've been sick, I've spent a good deal of time curled up with the nearest book...which happened to be the 5e PHB.

It got me thinking about how...some classes seem to just stop getting stuff at higher levels.  Like...Circle of the Land druid--they get extra spells known up to level 9...and then nothing more through level 20.  They get new wild shape forms up through level 8...and then nothing new through 20.  They get a decent level 10 ability, a very mediocre level 14 ability (the highest beast has CR8, so it's unlikely to come up in a level-appropriate encounter).  Granted, druids share abilities at 18 and 20...buuut they're both wild shape abilities (which Moon Druid uses much, much better).

Alright, so characters at level 20 not multiclassed.  I'm going to focus on full casters to start...

Wizard

Is a level 20 Wizard good?  Well yes, it's D&D, don't act too surprised.  Some of the paths are really good on top of that.  Like...Illusion gets Illusory Reality, letting you turn something from an illusion spell into a real object.  So...cast a level 1 illusion of a stone wall, and then make it real.  Congrats, you just used a level 1 spell to do what is normally done with a level 5 slot (Wall of Stone is level 5, and a pretty good spell).  And regardless of path, you have lots of versatility, arguably the best spell list, etc.  So like yes, Wizard at level 20 is pretty good.

Warlock

The problem with Warlock at 20 is that the Mystic Arcanum feature (what they get for level 6-9 spell slots) is really trashy compared to level 6-9 spell slots.  Literally one spell known for each level.  No ability to use higher level spell slots.  No second spell for the 6/7 slot.  The choices are about a third of the choices Wizard gets for 6/7/8/9 spells (with two spells Wizard doesn't get; Conjure Fey, which is fine, and Glibness, which is trash).  Fortunately there's pretty strong options at each level...although being locked into one spell forever still hurts.  (Like...Demiplane is a great spell....for Wizard.  For Warlock it means they never use their level 8 spell for anything else ever.  Same for something like True Seeing).

But OK, that's really not the strength of warlock.  Let's focus more on pact magic.  4 level 5 spell slots.  That's awesome, right?  Slam out 4 level 5 spells win a combat, take a short rest, and get all your slots back!  Well...it's not as good as it sounds.  Warlock's level 5 PHB spells are...Contact Other Plane (talk to deities), Dream (talk to people in their sleep), scrying (spy on people), and Hold Monster (aha, a spell that has some value in combat.  Although it's a single target all-or-nothing status that offers the target a saving throw every turn, takes concentration, and lasts a maximum of one minute).  Through the various pacts, there's also Dominate Person (An arguably better status than Hold Monster, but only works on humanoids) Telekinesis (restrained is weaker than paralyzed or charmed, but the spell keeps going if they break out, and you can drop them off cliffs), Flamestrike (fine, but comes with the Fiend path that also gets Fireball, which is more damage when cast at level 5), Hallow (oh wow, this looks like a pretty awesome buff or debuff.  No concentration.  Mass protection from elements or silence or fear or....wait, casting time 24 hours?????  WTF?  Nevermind, this sucks), Seeming (mass disguise self?  Uh, ok).

So...I guess it's more like casting a level 4 spell at 5th slot?  Well...again, only four level 4 spells in the Warlock spell list.  There's Banishment, which is pretty good (Two targets, get to save once and then they're gone for the duration of the spell--requires concentration).  Dimension Door is nice to have.  Hallucinatory Terrain is whatever; as much as I hyped up illusion Wizards above...even they don't get too excited for this one.  Blight is...8d8 singletarget damage (for the two paths that don't have fireball, this is good.  Compared to Fireball...cast out of a level 5 slot, Blight is 9d8 averaging 40.5, and Fireball is 10d6 averaging 35.  But you know, multitarget and all that).  The various patrons give some good options at this level (Greater Invisibility and Evard's Black Tentacles jump to mind.  Although...as good as those two spells are, they gain little from being cast out of a 5th level slot instead of a 4th level slot).

So...third level slot?  Now we're talking, with 12 (!!) spells in the default list (and more in other lists).  Although a lot of these also don't gain anything from being cast at 5th level (looking at Hypnotic Pattern, Fear, Gasseous Form, Hunger of Hadar, Major Image, Remove Curse, Tongues).  So...stuff that does scale up is Fly, Counterspell, Dispell Magic, Vampiric Touch.  None of these are super amazing if cast out of a 5th level slot compared to a 3rd.  Regardless, good variety, decent amount of power in this list, even if not much scaling.

So...actual fifth level spells are concentration single target status with per-round saves, almost exclusively.  Buffing, AoE, and battlefield control start at 4th level.  3rd brings lots of stuff.  Hunger of Hadar is a unique warlock spell at 3rd level, with some pretty interesting properties (no save blind while in the area, no save damage--albeit not much at 2d6, difficult terrain, 20ft).  Not sure if that's better or worse than Evard's Black Tentacles, which also makes difficult terrain, also 20ft, and restrains targets and deals more damage on a failed saving throw.  Mmm...actually, due to the way advantage/disadvantage work, blindness doesn't mean a whole lot for Hunger of Hadar, because anyone attacking into the area can't see their opponent either, so the advantage/disadvantage cancels out on both sides.  Restrained is restrained, though.

Oh, quick comparison, Eldritch Blast deals 42 average damage at this level when you hit

So...ok, all hail Cthulu, pick the Great Old One, praise the black tentacles.  Has synergy with the shoving from Eldritch Blast pushing opponents into the tentacles.  Or maybe pick Fiend if you feel like casting more than one non-Eldritch Blast per combat, cause literally all these spells require concentration (as do many of the good Mystic Arcanum) and Fireball does not.  Part of the draw of Warlock is having four pact magic spell slots to burn every combat, and then getting them back with a short rest.  Then again, if you want to burn spell slots in a combat, Dispel Magic, Counterspell, and Dimension Door would be happy to eat those spell slots, and are probably more relevant at 20th level combat than a fireball cast out of a 5th level slot.

So...ok, 4 3rd-5th level spells, depending on what kind of effect you're looking for.  (We'll average this as 4 4th level spells per short rest).  This isn't bad for sustain.  A typical Wizard would have 9 spells in this level range, and be able to gain 3 more on a short rest.  12 spells in that range.  (Plus whatever the wizard can do with 4 level 1 spells, 3 level 2 spells, 1 level 6 and 1 level 7 spell...that's probably more in the 20 range).  Of course, level 20 Warlocks have a capstone where they get one short rest for free, which brings their starting value to 8, so...3 short rests to match the wizard, 4 short rests to out-sustain the wizard?  Sounds...ok.  I don't think you're really going to out-sustain Wizards for the most part, but with enough short rests you keep up fine.

So...Mystic Arcanum are underwhelming.  Pact Magic is...able to keep up given the right playstyle, but can fall behind without short rests.  What are the big advantages?

Well...Eldritch blast is good.  The best Wizard cantrip deals 22 to its 42.  Wizard could take Spell Mastery with Scorching Ray for free Scorching Rays...but that only deals 21 damage.

The other big selling point is Invocations.  Let's see...

I see a lot of hype about Darkness/Devil's Sight "cheese".  That said, being unable to see doesn't do as much as I thought it would.  Makes some spells that require vision uncastable.  Gives disadvantage on their attack rolls (if you can see them, which you can).  Gives you advantage on attack rolls against them.  These are...all nifty, sure, but you could also just take the Minor Illusion cantrip, create an illusory cardboard box over yourself (with small peepholes so that you can see out, and a small hole at arm level to attack out of) and...get the same three benefits (they can't see you, so no sight spells, you have advantage, they have disadvantage).  (You can't move this cardboard box illusion, and an enemy could spend their action doing an investigation check analyzing your illusion to see through it.  But eh, cantrip instead of an invocation, a spell slot, and concentration).  That said, we're talking level 20, and I expect a good number of enemies would be packing some form of Truesight by now, so neither Darkness/Devil's Sight nor Minor Illusion should be pulling that much weight.

That said, some of the others are pretty good.

Witch's Sight.  Not quite Truesight, but really good.

Book of Ancient Secrets for all the rituals (literally).  Most are divination spells, but Leomund's Tiny Hut helps you get short rests, and Find Familiar is a good spell.

Visions of Distant Realms.  Arcane Eye at will, always know what's ahead.

Ascendant Step. Levitate self at will.

One with Shadows.  Invisibility at will that doesn't use concentration.

Eldritch Sight.  Detect Magic at will.  (Although detect magic is also a ritual, so maybe skippable.  Lots of other at will options like Silent Image.  Or whispers of the grave to interrogate people you killed).

(And you probably want a couple of your 8 invocations going into Eldritch Blast).

All in all it seems like Warlock's role (at 20) is heavily divination/scouting out of combat focused.  Rituals get you a large number of Divination spells.  The 5th level pact magic options were 3/4 Divination spells too.  But their invocations in particular--many of the good ones are just big upgrades to what they can see or learn, and stuff that is on all the time like With's Sight (helps avoid surprises for the party).

So...mmm, that's a niche, at least.  (And one that...a Wizard would need to cast like...True Seeing to achieve, a level 6 spell that lasts for one hour.  So...Warlock definitely does this better).  Although the irony, of course, is that the typical Warlock won't have much wisdom to use on perception....
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 30, 2016, 12:38:56 AM
5e contd

Sorcerer

Spontaneous casters are inherently a little worse than prepared casters in 5e.  Prepared casters get to cast like spontaneous casters, but change their list of spells known every night.

So...ok, metamagic.  Can metamagic break the spell slot economy with high level spells?  With Twin Spell it could.  Twin Greater Polymorph or Twin Foresight would be great.  Basically an extra level 9 spell.  Buuuut these spells aren't on the sorcerer spell list.  The stuff you can twin is like...8th level Dominate Monster; pretty decent, although Dominate Monster is not the best 8th level spell out there.  7th level maybe Plane Shift (the wording is a bit unclear--twin only works on strictly single target spells; plane shift is single target when used on offence...but not when warping friends.  Is it inelligible?  Also you would need to touch two targets).  Maybe on an 8th or lower spell cast via Wish (although again, wording.  Technically Wish is capable of targeting more than one target, if you create a different spell effect with it, so is it ineligible?)  So...you might be looking at 6th level; there's good 6th level stuff to Twin (Disintegrate, True Seeing).  But nothing that makes me think "wow, Sorcerers can get more high level stuff per day."

What Sorcerers are good at is squeezing in more damage.  Empowered Spell will generally up the base damage by about 10 on average (on rolls where it's worth using; not all rolls qualify.  Also this is before save for half).  Quickened Spell lets you use your action on a cantrip (which can be 22 damage)--or a spell that lets you use actions every turn like Sunbeam (27 average damage, AoE, and blinds).  Heightened Spell for disadvantage on saving throws is handy for status effects (disadvantage on spell saves isn't that easy to set up; usually requires a spell like Curse) and can also up DPS.  (Heightened Spell For damage spells...assuming the enemy has a 50% chance to make the save, now it's 25%, which in terms of damage means a 16% increase.  Fireball goes from 21 average damage (28, or 14 on a save) to 24.5 average damage.  Meteor Swarm goes from 105 average (70-140 range) to 122.5 average.  Except heightened spell only works on one target, so doesn't really up AoE damage....

I mean, there's other more defensive uses to metamagic too (use the disengage action, and then quicken a spell). But just in general, Sorcerers seem to squeeze into fewer turns what would take Wizards more turns to accomplish.  (In exchange for a loss in versatility).  Despite their ability to nova, they also probably can sustain pretty well, by getting more out of their lower level spell slots (twin Polymorph), and having a level 20 ability that gets them sorcery points on short rests (which can be converted into spell slots in a pinch).  On the other hand, no ritual casting, which both Wizard and Warlock had.

Druid

So...I'm focusing on level 20 casters.  Level 20 Druids are silly for another reason (if they are moon path).  They can wildshape unlimited times per day.  As a bonus action.  So...bonus action gain 130 temp HP?  Oh, and they can cast a good number of spells in wild shape form.

They are a prepared caster.  Their spell list...has some holes in it (looking at level 9...No wish or True Polymorph), but it's still got good options at most levels (Foresight and True Resurection as level 9s).

So mmm...they tank

Cleric

Umm...hmm...so their spell selection is actually kinda weak.  Level 9 it's like...True Resurrection, which is good...but not useful every day.  Level 8 they have Holy Aura, which is...solid.  (Well...1 minute duration, concentration, give your team advantage on saves, and enemies disadvantage on hitting).  Seems fairly good, but...not sure if 8th level spell worthy.  A lot of the 6th/7th level spells that stand out are unamazing wizard spells (Fire Storm--basically a fireball cast out of a 7th level slot.  Plane Shift--good, but part of it is the travel).  5th level is where they have some good shit, though Contagion--a non-concentration spell that lasts at least 3 turns, and could last a week on failed saves.  Slimy Doom looks really good (disadvantage on Con saves, which helps this last longer, and whenever this creature takes damage it is stunned until the end of its next turn?  WAT?  So...stun lock a boss.  Requires hitting a melee attack, and having a party to follow up, of course).

There's an important role here, of course, and that's that Cleric heals and revives.  But these are usually tasks for after combat.  (In general in D&D...and in most games with decent balance, damage prevention and battlefield control will do more to reduce damage in-combat than healing will restore HP).  Hell, for that matter, damage spells deal more than healing spells.  (Which also means a counterspell on a fireball prevents a lot more damage than a level 3 heal spell...and oh hey look, Clerics don't get Counterspell).  So...really, what you want to be doing is using spells to prevent damage or control the fight, and then burn some low level spell slots to heal up after the fight.  (Or just rest; 5e is built so that you don't really need a dedicated healer).

I'm...honestly looking at Druid and thinking they have a better spell list, though.  Good out-of-combat healing (less in-combat healing options, but stuff like Goodberry heals a lot for a level 1 slot).  More battlefield control with stuff like Reverse Gravity and Stone Wall.  That same really cool level 5 spell that Cleric had (Contagion).  Better level 6-9 options.

Clerics I guess are more front-loaded?  Like...medium armor/heavy armor and shields at level 1, often martial weapons too.  Usually a pretty cool domain feature at level 1.  But not always stuff that scales (like...tempest, use your reaction to deal 2d8 damage to anyone who attacks you within 5 feet.  2d8 is awesome at level 1, and a waste of a reaction at 20).

Bard

So...the bard gets to steal spells from other lists.  it still matters what's on the bard list, as only a few come from other lists.

L9: Bard has great options (True Polymorph, Foresight).  Being a spontaneous caster you probably also want wish.  8th level options are a bit weak, but you can grab like...Maze from another list.  That accounts for both the level 18 magical secrets.  Level 7 you can Forcecage, which is great.  (Level 7 is low enough to slide under the 14 magical secrets, so could pick up something like Simulacrum here).  Level 6 you get Mass Suggestion (excellent non-concentration spell), could use magical secrets for Globe of Invulnerability.  5th level you have Raise Dead and Animate Objects, two very good spells.  Could use Magical Secrets for like...Wall of Force.  Or Contagion.  4th level you have Polymorph and Greater Invisibility.  Could use magical secrets to pick up like...Evards Black Tentacles?  3rd level is where things are a bit dubious.  Hypnotic Pattern is great, but you probably don't want your one third level spell to be concentration.  Leomund's Tiny Hut is great, although you're not a ritual caster so you actually spend a spell slot on it--might be better-left to a party member.  You'd have to use magical secrets for either Fireball or Counterspell if you wanted those as options.  2nd level spells are also a bit lacking (you'd need to use magical secrets if you wanted Mirror Image or Misty Step or Prayer of Healing).

That said, pretty great spells from 9th-4th level without running out of secrets.  3rd is stretched a bit thinner, but i think you want to use at least one secret here, probably 2.  I think letting level 1-2 spell slots be reserved for healing is totally fine, and probably one of the best use of those slots at this level.

So...pretty great spell list; could even be argued as the best list.  Spontaneous caster, so less flexibility than other casters.  And...not as much sustain as some (short rests don't help with spell slots; just heal a bit, and get some bardic inspiration charges).  Bard class features are skill checks.  ALL of the skill checks.  (Their skill checks are no joke at 20.  Double proficiency via expertise is like...+12 o_O.  For 5e, that's a ridiculous skill check bonus).  I mean, the tradeoff is fewer combat features (Cleric and Sorcerer get to fly, all the time, for instance).

Hmmm...brief theorycrafted ranking for 20

1. Illusionist Wizard (The amount of value they can get out of level 1 spells, or large scale illusion spells they cast on previous days and then modify with their class feature breaks the spell economy a bit.  Level 1 wall of diamond.  no spell slot required for my opponents are on difficult terrain and our party is not, and we're hidden from view behind this illusory wall with murder holes giving us advantage).
2. Moon Druid (yeah, their spell selection is merely average.  The level 20 ability though o_O.  That said, "tank with my basically infinite HP" falls apart if you get hit by a status effect).
3. Bard/other Wizard/Sorcerer (these all seem like pretty even tradeoffs.  Most spell flexibility for the Wizard.  Arguably best single day spell list for the Bard.  Ability to unload for the Sorcerer from a spell list that is not bad.
4. Land Druid (Solid spells.  Reasonable distribution with some low level spells that can heal for a lot relative to their level, and high quality high level spells to win fights.  Combine this with being a prepared caster for high versatility, and wild shape having still decent value given that it's infinite and you can cast in it, and it's always handy for scouting.  Outclassed by Bards, I think, but better than Clerics at this level due to a better spell list.  Alternatively, a lot of good Wizard features and spells along with healing and revival spells, but a much shorter spell list).
5. Warlock (Mystic Arcanum have strong spell selections, but are mechanically pretty penalizing.  Invocations are great.  Eldritch Blast is really starting to stand out, like...makes some 4th level damage spells look bad.  Pact Magic is a bit weaker than you'd expect four 5th level slots per short rest to be, more like 3rd-5th range...which is still fine and gives them decent sustain.  Ritual Casting too, for even more sustain).
6. Cleric (Weak high-level spells.  Coulda sworn Clerics had Wish or some Wish equivalent in 3.5; not in 5e!  Class features that don't scale well at 20 like adding 2d8 damage on a weapon attack on a class with no extra attack feature--may as well just use their cantrip).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 05, 2016, 04:15:58 PM
You definitely underrate how good Healing Word and its ilk are in combat, I think? Remember that it doesn't just 1d4+5 (or whatever) damage, it also restores any damage which had been used to overkill the character when they dropped to 0. 5e bous action revival is really powerful and makes the classes with it much better. If nobody is dropping to 0 HP ever, your DM is going easy on you. If people are, then having access to these spells is really great, since you can keep on fighting for a bonus action.

Granted, you can get them via multiclassing 1 level into bard/cleric/druid, but for the analysis above... they really need to be mentioned more I think.

Cleric has a bunch of cool stuff you don't touch on. Spiritual Weapon allows you to unload a bunch of free damage with bonus actions. Life Cleric really does heal notably better than anyone else (even its Cure Wounds beats out Goodberry for a L1, and Prayer of Healing is way ahead of like everything). Some of the channel divinities are quite cool... I'm a big fan of Radiance of Dawn in particular, generally somewhat weaker than Fireball, but an even bigger radius and IFF (granted, you can get IFF Fireballs via some Wizard/Sorc builds). Agreed that they don't gain too much at the highest levels.

I will also say that, in general, if you're trying to figure out the best class, you'd probably be better served to focus on almost any other level besides 20. Like yeah there's no question Druid is pretty OP at 20, but realistically what percent of the campaign do you actually spend there? Obviously this varies by campaign, but I'd imagine it's only rarely more than 10%. Many campaigns won't even hit it. I know that this is an assumption you made for the sake of this exercise, but I can't help but wonder if choosing another arbitrary level would have been more helpful.


EDIT: Also, I see no mention of the fact that Wizard has 20 less HP than any other caster (except wild sorcerer, but who cares about them). I'd honestly kneejerk wizard one of the weakest casters because of this, except that Meteor Swarm is super-dumb at 19-20 (ahead of other damage spells by... a ridiculous amount) and a bunch of other casters lose out a bunch due to not having this. And illusion stuff I guess, though how impressive that is reaaally varies with how much your DM lets you create with it and how much they pack things like Dispel Magic on their enemies.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 07, 2016, 07:34:16 AM
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You definitely underrate how good Healing Word and its ilk are in combat, I think? Remember that it doesn't just 1d4+5 (or whatever) damage, it also restores any damage which had been used to overkill the character when they dropped to 0. 5e bous action revival is really powerful and makes the classes with it much better.

Ahh....ok, I did not know that 5e doesn't do negative health (didn't come up in the sessions I played).  Well...that helps Bard/Druid/Cleric.  (Bard has this on their core list).  That said, the bonus action part of it isn't that strong unless you have a strong attack or cantrip, since you can't use both a bonus action spell and an action spell.  So like...if you're a warlock, and multiclass a little for healing word, yeah, that's great because you can Eldritch Blast.  By level 20 though, Cleric doesn't really have either an impressive autoattack game, or an impressive cantrip game.  Like...you can deal 22ish damage.  Might be better taking the dodge action >_>

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if you're trying to figure out the best class, you'd probably be better served to focus on almost any other level besides 20.

Oh sure.  But I've played games at lower levels, I've never played games at 20, and haven't seen spells above about 4th level, so it's a more interesting hypothetical for me.

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(except wild sorcerer, but who cares about them).

Wild Sorcerer might actually be better than Dragon Sorcerer at 20.  Like...Wild Magic is on average positive, and breaks various rules (doesn't require concentration).  And you have a ton of control over it by this level (you get to roll twice and pick the result you like.  And if both of them are bad, you can often just counterspell the wild magic).

By comparison, draconic bloodline gains 20 HP, 5 extra damage damage on spells of your chosen element (which is fire), 1 hour of resistance to your chosen element (fire) if you cast a (fire) spell, Dragon Wings, and Draconic Presence, which is a concentration effect that charms/fears in an AoE which is like...similar to level 3 spells (hypnotic pattern/fear).

It's very DM dependent, though.  Like...Tides of Chaos is literally triggered by the DM.  Some DMs just rule that it will always trigger on the next spell, which is hilariously good.  (Gain advantage whenever you want it, and trigger wild magic surges once per round if you feel so inclined).

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Also, I see no mention of the fact that Wizard has 20 less HP than any other caster

I mean...we're talking 20th level Wizard.  Take Spell Mastery on Shield, basically add 5 to your AC.  (Combined with mage armor your AC is now 8 + DEX).  Spell Mastery also gets you a level 2 spell you can cast without spell slots (Misty Step or Mirror Image if you're concerned about durability).

If you really, really are feeling concerned about durability, go for the School of Abjuration.  You get a 45 HP shield that takes damage if you would take HP damage.  The shield taking damage does not count as you taking damage, so you get a free pass on concentration checks.  Oh, and you can heal the shield between combats by spamming abjuration spells through one of the many ways to cast them without spell slots (remember the infinite castings of sheild?)  Oh, and abjurers also get advantage on saving throws against spells, and resistance against the damage of spells.

So...mmm...you can be durable if you feel that's needed.  In particular, if the campaign will involve a lot of enemy spellcasters, Abjurer is good.  (Resistance to their damage, better saving throws, and super turbo charged counterspells.  65% chance to counterspell level 9 spells with a level 3 slot is...LOL).

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I'd honestly kneejerk wizard one of the weakest casters because of this, except that Meteor Swarm is super-dumb at 19-20 (ahead of other damage spells by... a ridiculous amount) and a bunch of other casters lose out a bunch due to not having this.

I mean, Sorcerers also get Meteor Swarm, and Bards can learn it.  I don't know that it's necessarily the be-all-end-all of level 9 spells, because a lot of them are just over-the-top levels of good.  Like...sure Meteor Swarm deals 140 damage on average.  But Prismatic Wall deals 175 damage to enemies who try to pass through it, while simultaneously blinding them, turning them to stone, and warping them to other planes of existence.  Oh, and it's also the only wall spell that doesn't require concentration.  (And allies can pass through it with no ill effect).

There's also Foresight--one ally has advantage on everything, and enemies have disadvantage on everything, for 8 hours -without- concentration.

There's also True Polymorph--turn your party into Ancient Brass Dragons.  Permanently. (cause True Polymorph can make the change permanent).  (Brass Dragons have the shapechange ability, so they can assume humanoid form for roleplaying and close quarters).

There's also Wish...I hear that spell is pretty good.  Even just using it to cast strong 8th level spells that have massive material costs is solid (looking at you, Clone).

For all that Meteor Swarm is a lot better than 1st-8th level blast spells, I'm not sure it necessarily breaks the game more than other 9th level spells.

Regardless, in general the strength of Wizard is the spell list.  Roughly twice the spells of other casters.  Often Wizards just get better spells.  (Like...the 5th level Wall of Force is overall better than the 5th level Wall of Stone).

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Spiritual Weapon allows you to unload a bunch of free damage with bonus actions.

Oh hm, Spiritual Weapon doesn't use concentration.  I guess I assumed it would.  So...out of a level 2 slot, assuming it gets to attack the full 10 turns, you would eventually deal 50 + 10d8.  This damage is spread across 10 turns, granted.  It's actually not too different than Fighters/Monks etc getting an extra attack on bonus action.  If you really wanted damage out of it, you could cast it from an 8th level slot, and deal 5 + 4d8 per turn.  This is...about 23 damage, which is similar to what a Sorcerer can do by quickening their spells, and then using their action on cantrips.  So...solid effect (although, an 8th level slot, and a turn where you aren't casting any non-cantrip spells is not exactly free).

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Life Cleric really does heal notably better than anyone else (even its Cure Wounds beats out Goodberry for a L1, and Prayer of Healing is way ahead of like everything).

Yeah, Life Cleric's level 1 (and level 17--maximize all healing) abilities increase healing by a lot.  And Prayer of Healing is a good spell (10 minute casting time, so out of combat only, of course).  I mean, presumably there's a tipping point somewhere when in-combat healing becomes a good use of spell slots (for actions other than resing) if the healing amount is high enough.  I'm...not really sure how to translate this tipping point into math, however.

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Some of the channel divinities are quite cool... I'm a big fan of Radiance of Dawn in particular, generally somewhat weaker than Fireball, but an even bigger radius and IFF (granted, you can get IFF Fireballs via some Wizard/Sorc builds).

Let's see...it's 30 feet around you, so you need to put yourself out there.  2d10+ cleric level is 31 damage at level 20.  As compared to fireball, which is 8d6 = 28 damage when cast out of a level 3 slot.  So...hmm...yeah, by level 20 that actually scales up to fireball numbers.  (Light Domain also gets fireball as one of its spells).  With 3 channel divinities per short rest, this gives Cleric a bit of a Warlock-esque property of having "spell slots" that come back on a short rest.

Yeah, these are good points.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 10, 2016, 03:55:59 AM
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Wild Sorcerer might actually be better than Dragon Sorcerer at 20.  Like...Wild Magic is on average positive, and breaks various rules (doesn't require concentration).  And you have a ton of control over it by this level (you get to roll twice and pick the result you like.  And if both of them are bad, you can often just counterspell the wild magic).

Setting aside how hilariously action- and spellslot-inefficient Counterspelling your own spells are, I don't think this would even work. I agree that this is DM-judgement-call territory like... many things about thie class.

That said yeah post-Level 14 wild magic surges are actually cool, and I agree about Tides of Chaos, but both are DM-dependent. And wild magic is a huge potential liability for 65% of levels, more if you multiclassed a bit.

Meanwhile Draconic gets a big HP push and free Mage Armour (though yes, not so big a deal at 20).

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I mean...we're talking 20th level Wizard.  Take Spell Mastery on Shield, basically add 5 to your AC.  (Combined with mage armor your AC is now 8 + DEX).

Fair enough, that is pretty cool. Shield is pretty great. I don't think it's Healing Word great, but very solid and yeah the free version at 18 is nice.

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I mean, Sorcerers also get Meteor Swarm, and Bards can learn it.  I don't know that it's necessarily the be-all-end-all of level 9 spells...

It's the most overtly powerful, and the spell which I've generally seen the most hype for online. It's also a huge upgrade over the most damaging L8 spell, which is around 50 points for AoE or 96 ST.

And... the other spells you list don't change my point! My point was that Wizard (and Sorcerer and Bard, yes) specifically spike up a lot with that spell, and others like it, if you feel any are as good (True Polymorph, I'll grant, might be. Not so impressed as you are by Foresight/Wish/Prismatic Wall... you realise that Foresight only grants disadvantage for enemies specifically targeting the 1 target, yes?). I don't really think this is an advantage Wizard(/Sorcerer/Bard) enjoys as convincingly at lower levels.

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I mean, presumably there's a tipping point somewhere when in-combat healing becomes a good use of spell slots (for actions other than resing) if the healing amount is high enough.  I'm...not really sure how to translate this tipping point into math, however.

It'd be interesting to see math attempts at this.

One data point... full Lay On Hands is something I've seen used a few times and is generally a worthy action in combat even if not reviving, which is 5*Level (so 100 if you wish). Of course if the competition is L6+ spell slots (e.g. Heal) then I'm less sure what the cutoff is. Mass Heal is honestly excellent and I may be underrating it as a L9, it is "fully heal and revive party" which comes pretty damn close to "win an encounter". (Granted, not the only L9 spell which you can say that of.)

The lower-level stuff is more interesting since the resource is less valuable. And... Life Cleric healing is kinda uber once it's maxed. Mass Cure Wounds is 36 to all allies at a L5 (+9 per spell level), which is potentially terrific, but really depends on both party size and how much the enemies distributed their damage. And for action economy, Mass Healing Word is 14/19/24 MT for L3-5 which seems potentially useful as well. But... I'm not 100% certain how much.

I've never seen a Life Cleric in action but they look extremely powerful to me on paper.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 10, 2016, 09:10:38 AM
Side note--I was wrong in my reading of Contagion.  The target needs to fail 3 saves before the negative effects kick in.

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(True Polymorph, I'll grant, might be. Not so impressed as you are by Foresight/Wish/Prismatic Wall... you realise that Foresight only grants disadvantage for enemies specifically targeting the 1 target, yes?). I don't really think this is an advantage Wizard(/Sorcerer/Bard) enjoys as convincingly at lower levels.

The big thing about most of these is that they break the concentration economy.  True Polymorph requires concentration for one hour (and then it's permanent until dispelled).  Foresight does not require concentration.

I'll admit it depends a little on the DM, however.  Apparently the official guideline is for the DM to give 8 encounters per day, and 4 short rests.  Meteor Swarm wins one encounter.  Foresight helps you in all 8 encounters.  Stick it on the Rogue, now they don't need to worry about being squishy, always get sneak attack, they can feel comfortable relying on their evasion for spells, they are at almost no risk from traps (very likely to succeed on the skill check, and advantage to the saving throw if they fail).

And you know, Wish is really good.  Like...ignore material components of spells, and the spell always takes 1 action even if it's replicating a spell that normally takes 12 hours to cast.  So...walk up to the super powerful bad guy, and use Wish to duplicate the effects of the spell Simulacrum.  Congrats, you now have a copy of the super powerful badguy who is friendly to you and obeys your commands!

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And... the other spells you list don't change my point! My point was that Wizard (and Sorcerer and Bard, yes) specifically spike up a lot with that spell, and others like it, if you feel any are as good

Well yes.  This is why I was harsh on the level 20 evaluation of casters who don't get this power spike.  (Hence...harsh on Cleric.  Fairly harsh on Warlock because while they have perfectly fine options at 9 they only get to pick one and can never change it.  And...while Land Druid has generally decent spells, still putting them below casters with stronger spell lists like Bard and Wizard.  Land Druid, incidentally, could probably be argued to have a better spell list/spell knowing mechanic than Sorcerer, but I think their lists are close enough that metamagic wins).

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It's the most overtly powerful, and the spell which I've generally seen the most hype for online. It's also a huge upgrade over the most damaging L8 spell, which is around 50 points for AoE or 96 ST.

OK, want to come back to this for a bit.  96 would be...Disintegrate cast out of a level 8 slot right?  Yep, numbers check out.  50 looks like...Cone of Cold out of an 8th level slot?  Right ok good.

The problem is that mages aren't really the source of damage in 5e--or, ok fine, they're solid at AoE damage.

Like...level 20 archer, Fighter 11, Rogue (assassin) 9, Sharpshooter feat, 20 dex, let's say attacking with some kind of bow (longbow or heavy crossbow with crossbow master).  If you get a surprise round, you automatically have advantage, and all your stuff crits (and crit means you get to roll dice twice, this includes superiority dice and sneak attack).  Might as well action surge since we crit this round.  So...6 attacks.  d8 with Longbow.  d8x12 = 54 damage.  5d6 sneak attack, crit increases that to 10d6 = 35 damage.  You can use all 5 superiority dice if you feel like it.  5d10 which increases to 10d10 = 55 damage.  Dex bonus doesn't get doubled, but that's still 6x5 30 damage.  If you feel confident about hitting (you do have advantage) you can take the +10 damage from sharpshooter for another 60.  Potentially 234 damage, or 174 without using sharpshooter.  And now use your bonus action on something cool because you're a Rogue (probably hide so that you can sneak attack next turn).  "Oh, but your damage will drop a lot without action surge and crits and superiority dice" you say?  Eh...next turn, assuming you hid successfully, it's 73 without sharpshooter, 103 with sharpshooter.  And of course, superiority dice and action surge come back on a short rest.

"But that's a min maxing build, and we've been comparing monoclass" you say?  Ok...like...Thief Rogue with basic archery stuff.  35 damage each turn from Sneak Attack.  10 from Dex.  9 or 7 from the crossbow/shortbow.  20 potentially from Sharpshooter if you feel accurate enough (you might not--fighter gets +2 accuracy to bows).  So...55 to 75.  Except Thief rogues just get two full turns at the start of every combat; pretty cool ability they get at level 17.  110-150 on the first turn.  And if we open up multiclassing, they don't lose much by dipping two levels of Fighter for Action Surge and +2 to bow accuracy.

OK, so maybe the problem is Rogues right?  Fighter 20!  Let's stick with bows.  We don't have Rogue now, so there's no use worrying about using the bonus action to hide--might as well use a bonus action for an extra attack, right?  So...9 attacks with a d6 weapon, or 8 attacks with a d10 weapon.  Hmm...decisions.  I think this depends if we are using sharpshooter (makes 9 attacks better than 8) or not (8 is better).  Let's just stick with 8 for now, since I'm sure we can come up with something creative to use a bonus action on.  So...84 damage without using Sharpshooter, or 164 damage with using sharpshooter.  Add in some superiority dice if you feel like it (up to +39 or so).  Oh yeah, and do it all again next turn, because Fighter now gets two action surges per short rest (except those superiority dice; if you burned them all in one round that is).

Anyway, point is, a 96 damage disintegrate is...well this is a level 8 spell, so it's once per day, and the second most powerful spell slot you have.  Maybe it hits more?  Let's see...monster manual, DC20...oh hey, I already have the page open to Ancient Brass Dragon.  Mmm...well right off the bat, legendary resistances, it can just choose to make the save on disintegrate (save for 0 remember).  But it only gets 3 of these per day, so maybe your party burns through them for you.  OK good, your spell save DC is 19, and Dex is literally the worst stat for Ancient Brass Dragon (10 Dex; dex saving throw +6).  60% chance to hit.  By comparison, our various archers are facing AC 20, with +13 to hit.  70% chance to hit, 45% going sharpshooter.  Although all of them have ways of getting advantage, which means 91% chance to hit, or 69.75% chance to hit using sharpshooter.

Actually, the really insulting one is Sorcerer/Warlock multiclass (Warlock 2, Sorcerer 18, for example).  Quicken Eldritch Blast.  Action Eldritch Blast.  84 damage for 2 sorcery points.  If you can set up Hex on an earlier turn, make that 112 damage.  Take that, Disintegrate!  If you're really being silly, dip Fighter too for Action Surge and 168 damage (but don't actually do that, or you won't get level 9 spells).

Not that Disintegrate is bad--it's fine, it adds a tool to the mage toolbox (without requiring a very specific Warlock/Sorcerer multiclass).  But I would argue that single target damage isn't the mage's role.  Even multitarget damage--Cone of Cold out of a level 8 slot hitting four people is 200 total damage (50 to each).  200 is more than the 150 that the average archer was doing, but distributing damage is generally worse than choosing targets after every attack.

So in general, most guides tell you to use magic for stuff other than pure DPS, since mages can do good work in a support role; split up/disable enemies so that they are easily cleaned up by the DPSs of the party, or buff your party.

Meteor Swarm is an exception to "mages aren't the best damage" yes.  140 damage.  To all the things.  At a 1 mile range.  And four different 40 foot radiuses (no overlap).  So...yes, that is obviously good; hit even two targets and you deal 280 in a turn.  Your party's archer is like "welp! can't match that in one round, and my range is a piddly 600 feet."  But it is literally once per day.

Is it better than making one character awesome across multiple turns and combats without concentration (Foresight, for instance)?  Eh, debateable.  Depends how many targets you hit with the AoE.  Depends how many combats there are today.  It's certainly competitive, but I'm not sure there's a clear winner.

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Mass Heal is honestly excellent and I may be underrating it as a L9, it is "fully heal and revive party" which comes pretty damn close to "win an encounter". (Granted, not the only L9 spell which you can say that of.)

Yeah, if it was a level 8 spell I'd call it really good.  Still think it's on the weak side for a level 9 spell, though.

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The lower-level stuff is more interesting since the resource is less valuable. And... Life Cleric healing is kinda uber once it's maxed. Mass Cure Wounds is 36 to all allies at a L5 (+9 per spell level), which is potentially terrific, but really depends on both party size and how much the enemies distributed their damage. And for action economy, Mass Healing Word is 14/19/24 MT for L3-5 which seems potentially useful as well. But... I'm not 100% certain how much.

I've never seen a Life Cleric in action but they look extremely powerful to me on paper.

Yeah, these don't sound bad.  (For comparison, Fireball on your party as a level 3 spell from an enemy would be 28, 14 if you save.  Mass Healing Word comes close to countering it.  For a level 5 spell, Cone of Cold is 36, save for 18.  Mass Cure Wounds does fully counter that, with some healing to spare.  Orrrrr you can just use your Channel Divinity (3x per short rest) to restore 100 HP...but which can't restore targets to more than half their maximum.  So...similar to Lay on Hands, except instead of 100 per day, it's 300 per short rest, but can't heal targets above half HP, but can be split among multiple targets at 30 ft range.

Honestly, your healing spells are good, but by level 20 you'll probably be using your Channel Divinity in combat for your ressing purposes since you get 3/short rest, and saving your spell slots for...something?  Prayer of Healing between combat to heal 25 AoE from a level 2 slot.

Life Cleric is interesting too, as I've certainly heard it argued that the best healer isn't someone who sticks with Life Cleric, but who takes Life Cleric 1 and then multiclasses into Bard or Paladin for Aura of Vitality (120 healing from a level 3 spell).  If you want to get really silly, then you mix in Sorcerer for metamagic (240 healing from a level 3 spell by using Extend Spell) but you do give up level 9 spells known to swing that.

But all of that has already been discussed at length:

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?479038-Max-number-of-healed-HP-per-long-rest&p=20445633&viewfull=1#post20445633

Including the very silly Life Cleric 1, Lore Bard 6, Sorcerer 3, Warlock 5 to get Aura of Vitaltiy castings every short rest.

That said, there's definitely an argument for straight Life Cleric, especially post 17, as they do more burst healing.  Sure, the ridiculous hybrid of four classes can heal 480 per short rest (possibly burning some level 1/2 spell slots for sorcery points), but Life Cleric's Channel Divinity is 300 per short rest, and you can burst 100 of it in a single round of combat (granted, can't heal people above half health, so you still need to use spells outside of combat to get people to full).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 11, 2016, 03:26:25 AM
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Side note--I was wrong in my reading of Contagion.  The target needs to fail 3 saves before the negative effects kick in.

Doesn't look like it. Certainly neither my Cleric player nor I myself read the spell that way. Let's check again...

"Make a melee spell attack against a creature within your reach. On a hit, you inflict the creature with a disease of your choice from any of the ones described below." (The list below includes Slimy Doom.)

Failing three saves simply extends the effects of the disease to 7 days. Whereas succeeding on three saves... well. "After succeeding on three of these saving throws, the creature recovers from the disease"

That leaves it pretty inarguable, at least as written. A DM can make the call to nerf it (and I've read discussions online debating how best to do that, though I choose not to beyond encounter design), although I'd certainly say that the spell having no effect until 3 failed saves would be going waaay too far for a L5, at that point it pretty much becomes "non-combat spell, make someone sick for a week". Contagion's a very strong spell, though you're at the mercy of disease immunity/resistance with it, so you'd better have other tricks, as any DM will respond to repeated use of a powerful toy like that with increasing incidences of monsters who spoil it, particularly arc bosses and the like. (For instance, my PCs just hit Level 11, a big milestone. One boss had legendary actions and a Potion of Vitality, the other just had Shield/Counterspell/Dispel Magic. Neither was completely immune to this tactic, but they were resistant enough, and my player guessed they would be and opted to use the L5 slots for other things.)

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I'll admit it depends a little on the DM, however.  Apparently the official guideline is for the DM to give 8 encounters per day, and 4 short rests.  Meteor Swarm wins one encounter.  Foresight helps you in all 8 encounters.

That's true. I will admit I don't intuitively think this way because 8-fight days strike me as insane. I like my campaigns to have a reasonable story component and it's pretty difficult to have 8 fights in a day (really? The enemies didn't try to team up at all?) AND not give the PCs the ability/desire to long-rest somewhere in the middle without this whole setup feeling very contrived. One-fight days are more common than eight-fight days (though of course, the DM should keep the PCs guessing as to whether this will actually be a one-fight day), and I'd probably take something like 4 as closer to the norm in order to achieve a desirable level of balance while still being grounded in reality. But this will vary campaign to campaign, as well as day to day within that campgaign, for sure.

And I guess Foresight gets better with 8 fights, but I dunno, I'm still not that impressed. Like... outside of Sneak Attack, advantage and disadvantage are +25% to the roll going your way at best, and probably less for accuracy against all but the most exceptionally evasive monsters. That's... nice, but not a be-all and end-all, and ignores that there are other ways to get advantage. Like the competition here includes Mass Heal. There's no way that an extra 25% of misses throughout a day on one character (and you just made sure the enemies would rather target other people...) and their own boosted accuracy will come anywhere near saving 500-700 HP. And of course, Foresight can be dispelled...

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Like...ignore material components of spells, and the spell always takes 1 action even if it's replicating a spell that normally takes 12 hours to cast

Mm, I'm not sure I agree with the reading that allows you to bypass casting time, as that's a very important thing to not be explicitly mentioned. (But 5e PHB isn't always that well-written...) That said, yeah, if allowed this Simulacrum type thing is certainly good. Though, better watch out, because Simulacrum is again rather easily dispelled for a L9 (compare Prismatic Wall), especially if the DM rules that it still counts as a Level 7 spell for dispelling purposes.

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The problem is that mages aren't really the source of damage in 5e--or, ok fine, they're solid at AoE damage.

I'm well aware, yes. Although speaking from my experience with encounter design, I'll say that AoE has a major potential to break enconters, moreso than any ST damage I've seen really does, at least at Levels 3-10. Meteor Swarm aside, AoE damage does slowly fall off thereafter, because Fireball is so good for a L3.

But yes for ST damage, obviously spellcasters are worse than fighters usually. That's... kind of what fighters have, along with bulkier HP figures (and not even that in the case of Monk/Rogue). Obviously spellcasters can do more stuff. (Failing to take this into account is part of why 3e balance was so bad.)

It should probably also be mentioned that, while we've been ignoring magic items so far, that magic items can buff fighter damage/accuracy while mages can pretty much only buff their "attack" accuracy (except Warlock who gets buffed spell DCs as well, and they don't get damage).

Anyway Meteor Swarm being able to do the kind of damage that fighters need to expend lots of resources to get (and... other than Rogue/Fighter/Paladin, can the others even hit that much? Will be interesting when you get to them) to potentially every enemy in the fight AND do half damage on a miss is pretty great.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 11, 2016, 06:32:17 AM
Doesn't look like it. Certainly neither my Cleric player nor I myself read the spell that way. Let's check again...

"Make a melee spell attack against a creature within your reach. On a hit, you inflict the creature with a disease of your choice from any of the ones described below." (The list below includes Slimy Doom.)

Failing three saves simply extends the effects of the disease to 7 days. Whereas succeeding on three saves... well. "After succeeding on three of these saving throws, the creature recovers from the disease"

That leaves it pretty inarguable, at least as written. A DM can make the call to nerf it (and I've read discussions online debating how best to do that, though I choose not to beyond encounter design), although I'd certainly say that the spell having no effect until 3 failed saves would be going waaay too far for a L5, at that point it pretty much becomes "non-combat spell, make someone sick for a week". Contagion's a very strong spell, though you're at the mercy of disease immunity/resistance with it, so you'd better have other tricks, as any DM will respond to repeated use of a powerful toy like that with increasing incidences of monsters who spoil it, particularly arc bosses and the like. (For instance, my PCs just hit Level 11, a big milestone. One boss had legendary actions and a Potion of Vitality, the other just had Shield/Counterspell/Dispel Magic. Neither was completely immune to this tactic, but they were resistant enough, and my player guessed they would be and opted to use the L5 slots for other things.)

Yeah, that's certainly the way I read it too.  That said, from the designers:

http://www.sageadvice.eu/2014/10/06/contagion/

And...well, just compare it to other level 5 status spells and it is massively better.

Hold Monster is also level 5 lasts 1 minute, is concentration, requires a save (wisdom) to land, gives the target a save (wisdom) every turn to completely end the status.

Contagion requires a melee touch attack, so that's a definite downside.  But other than that....  Contagion does not require concentration, and (under the initial reading that you me and your cleric made) is guaranteed to disease the target for at least 3 turns -regardless- of save.  The Slimy Doom disease also stuns the target (Hold Monster does paralyze, which yes is better than stun, because it also boosts damage, but other than that the status effects are identical).  Oh, and it gives the target disadvantage on con saving throws (which are the saving throws needed to end the status).  And it lasts for 7 days -without- concentration if the target fails more saving throws than it passes after 6 turns.

Or compare to the 6th level Otto's Irresistable Dance.  Also concentration, also lasts only 1 minute, doesn't even stop the enemy from acting like Hold Monster does.  What makes it a 6th level spell is that there's no initial saving throw.  The enemy can use their action to make a saving throw to end the condition (wasting most of their turn).  And spending a level 6 spell to make a legendary monster waste their action guaranteed?  Generally considered a good trade.  (But not as good as guaranteed stopping 3 turns).

I'm not even sure there's 8th level spells with status effects as good as that.  Like...Maze is a great spell, but it's still a concentration spell, lasts a similar amount of rounds...probably a few more on average, and doesn't allow the trapped target to take damage.  Then again, Maze is 60 foot range, no save, no touch attack, just works every time.  OK, Maze has a decent argument to be better.  (But there's already a decent argument that Maze is the best 8th level spell in the game so...).

Touch attack is a little restrictive, sure, but there's ways around that.  (Find Familiar lets you cast touch attacks from a familiar using your spellcasting stats while being 100ft away.  A Sorcerer multiclass lets you deliver touch attacks from 30 feet via metamagic).

I can definitely see the argument that our initial reading was not the intent of the designers. 

(Obviously if your group is enjoying the spell, and you're managing to design around it, thumbs up, do what works for you).

(Splitting contagion stuff into a separate post--ultimately I don't think it matters that much for class balance if you design encounters with it in mind).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 11, 2016, 09:18:01 AM
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That's true. I will admit I don't intuitively think this way because 8-fight days strike me as insane. I like my campaigns to have a reasonable story component and it's pretty difficult to have 8 fights in a day (really? The enemies didn't try to team up at all?) AND not give the PCs the ability/desire to long-rest somewhere in the middle without this whole setup feeling very contrived. One-fight days are more common than eight-fight days (though of course, the DM should keep the PCs guessing as to whether this will actually be a one-fight day), and I'd probably take something like 4 as closer to the norm in order to achieve a desirable level of balance while still being grounded in reality. But this will vary campaign to campaign, as well as day to day within that campgaign, for sure.

Mmm...well, that depends.  if you're just going through a dungeon, and there's like...trap-esque stuff throughout the dungeon (chests that are mimics), it can make storyline sense for there to be a bunch of encounters.

In my pathfinder game (which is around 10th level) there was a sequence where we needed to shrink the party and sneak down mining chimneys, get the entire party past the orc miners into the passageway that led to the underdark (not much combat, but still used a bunch of spells).  Use a couple castings of fly and Spider Climb to scout out the underdark on our first entrance, and also avoid stepping in the lake which sounded theoretically bad, fought some drow (technically the first encounter), convinced the orcs they enslaved that we were on their side.  Killed some Drow who were asking why orcs were moving without drow supervision.  Got to the desired target, started fighting, but the enemy was very well prepared (every one of them had protection from arrows as a potion).  Also, it was like...2 priestesses of Lolth, 8 wizards, and a young dragon, against a party of 5 who was running low on spells at this point.  We still need to secure this location for our friends who are teleporting into this temple, but we back off to the drow camp a little ways back, because we heard they had a powerful prisoner.  Freed the prisoner, and the DM was nice to us and just made it so that she had an item that gave us an instant 8 hour rest, giving us a chance of making it in time for our rescue mission in ~30 minutes.

So like...technically before the long rest, there were only two major combats where we killed all the enemies (once with the first beach we landed on, and once when we were freeing the powerful prisoner).  But there were actually technically five combats (we killed a few orcs while we made our mad dash to the underdark.  We killed a drow who questioned the group of orcs we convinced to rebel.  We started fighting at the ambush site, and NOPE'd out once we realized how fucked we were...but we still killed one Drow).  And then a bunch of cases where espionage and exploration ate up spell slots (fly, see invisibility, shrinking the party to squeeze down mining chimneys).

Still a strain on the party, though.  On the other hand, this is pathfinder, which doesn't have short rests.

I will say that storyline-wise short rests have a lot of the same problems as long rests, which is to say, if you're running from people who are tracking you, or you are racing after an enemy...stopping for an hour sounds bad, and stopping for 8 hours also sounds bad.

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(and... other than Rogue/Fighter/Paladin, can the others even hit that much? Will be interesting when you get to them)

Ranger...I mean, they have the Swift Quiver spell.  "You can use your bonus action to make TWO attacks with your bow" (bonus action to cast this, so you don't get it right away, and concentration to maintain, so no stacking it with hunter's mark or anything).

They also have solid AoE.  Like...spells, yes, they have those too; conjure volley is...Cone of Cold in a different shape (40 foot radius cylinder).  But Hunter also gets Volley at level 11 (attack everything in a 10 foot radius).  At level 3 hunter gets Horde Breaker (if enemies stand within 5 feet of each other, you just get an extra attack).

And then there's beastmaster who...has things and stuff and things.  When you cast a buff spell on yourself, you cast it on your animal companion too for free.  So...your best buff spell is Swift Quiver...umm...can any of the animals use a bow and arrow? >_>  Actually I guess it wouldn't even be that great if they could, because you still would need to use your action to command them to attack....  (I mean, they're probably still ok.  They can still use Swift Quiver and get four attacks per round...or three attacks and a multiattack from their beast friend).

So...I think they're alright on DPR, but they lean on spell slots and concentration to keep up with fighter damage (or bunched up enemies that can be hit with AoE, but that's probably not the best example if we're trying to argue for Rangers over spell damage).

But by level 20, if they have the spells ready, I think they do alright in a comparison to fighters (for archery).  They just...take a long time to get there.  Getting dex to 20 is two ASIs.  Two bow related feats is another couple ASIs.  This is level 16 for Ranger, or level 10 for Fighter.  The Swift Quiver spell is level 5...which means they don't get it till 17.  And they need 19 if they want two level 5 spell slots.

I mean...Rangers bring a lot to out of combat exploration, so something had to give, obviously.


Monks....

Monks reach their max damage at about level 5.  (OK, so that's a slight exaggeration.  They still need one more ASI boosting dex, and eventually their weapons become d10s.  At level 5 they only deal 32 damage.  By level 17 this becomes 42 damage!!!)  But for real though, Monks as they level mostly become tanky (proficiency in all saving throws, resistant to all non-force damage, evasion, invisibility).  Also status, they gain more status effects (stun, instant death in the case of Quivering Palm, knocking people prone).

It's not even like there's many feats you can take that change anything--Monks already use their bonus action.  Opportunity attacks for d10+5?  Yeah, you can get 'em but 10 average damage doesn't sound worth setting up.  Magic Initiate for Hex?  Sure, add 14 split across 4 attacks, it's not bad, although again you want your bonus action.  First turn being 28 instead of 42, and then later turns being 56.  Tied on turn 2, becomes better on turn 3.



Barbarian...

I mean, you get damage resistance to all the damages (assuming you go bear totem).  You get probably 250 HP.  These combine for a whole lot of tank; we expect to get a little less damage for all these reasons.

So...what's the damage?  Great Weapon Master, Polearm Master means you always get to use your bonus action on an attack, so that helps.  Your strength is 24 (+7 modifier).  Being in a rage (which you'll always be at this level) lets you add 4 to that.  So...+11 on each attack so far.  Great Weapon Master can increase this to +21.  Hitting with GWM shouldn't be too hard, with your +7 from 24 strength, and Reckless attacks giving you advantage whenever you want.  Your weapon dice are d10, d10, and d4, so 13.5.  21x3 + 13.5 = 76.5.  Less on the first turn, as you need to use your bonus action to rage.  But Polearm Master also gives you a few more attacks of opportunity than normal (so sometimes it's more like 100 damage).  Oh, and 3x brutal critical is a thing I guess.  Adds like...4 damage per turn on average?

But mostly...their damage isn't as front-loaded, but they're fine--still outputting ehh...a little below disintegrate damage on average, but not that much below.  And sure, it's only melee which isn't ideal.  But they have 250 HP with damage resistance to everything (effectively like 500 HP) so whatever, they come out just fine when compared to other fighters at this level.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 11, 2016, 04:24:00 PM
Oh, I agree that Contagion feels a bit too strong as is. That said it's pretty unambiguously the way the spell is worded, and some people are sticklers for RAW (I'm not one). On the other hand, I do think the change Mearls proposes makes the spell junk for L5, and note that he's rather non-committal there ("I'd rule that..." not "this is how it works"; also, this change is not on the official list of errata (https://media.wizards.com/2015/downloads/dnd/Errata_PH.pdf) despite the list being more recent than the tweet). If the spell needs a touch attack AND a majority of saves over 3-5 rounds to do anything, it's completely useless in combat and pretty close outside it. Non-combat disease infliction for a L5? Really? Lesser Restoration will remove it and it's a L2! If you're Level 9+, any Important NPC you might conceivably want to hit with this (assuming you could even do it in a way that doesn't trigger combat, meaning you'd be better off just having striking her with a sword) is gonna be able to talk to a a healer who knows Lesser Restoration. Or just use a potion/spell.

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I will say that storyline-wise short rests have a lot of the same problems as long rests, which is to say, if you're running from people who are tracking you, or you are racing after an enemy...stopping for an hour sounds bad, and stopping for 8 hours also sounds bad.

I agree.

I rather liked 4e's definition of short rests where they're 5 minutes. Unlike an hour, you can usually sneak in a 5 minute break between encounters, unless the DM literally has something breathing down your neck that very moment (in which case, that's by design). It feels even more superheroic that you can heal up in that time, but whatever, D&D is already extremely divorced from reality, and it created a system with less "oh man we should rest even though it makes no sense narratively" which plagues other editions, while still being able to have days which grind you out of resources if that's a thing you enjoy.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2016, 03:10:52 AM
Alright, so I think for my next trick, I'm going to take Elfboy's advice and run calculations for a lower level, and account a little bit for magic items.

My thoughts are: 6th level.  The PHB calls out 5th level as a big power spike for the party.  But 6th level is usually some big class defining ability, like...extra ASI for fighter, or Bard picking non-Bard spells for the first time, or Paladin getting their aura of awesomeness.

For magic items: looking at the loot table, most of your gear at this level is going to be from Table F in the DMG.  Basically all the equipment with the "uncommon" rarity.  I'll ignore gear that does fancy shit, and stick with the +1s, so...Weapon +1, Shield +1, Rod of the Pact Keeper +1, Wand of the War Mage +1.

Note that there's no magic armor at uncommon rarity.  Also: Full Plate and Half Plate cost more than an uncommon item (which is listed as 100gp - 500gp)--half/full cost 750 and 1500 gp, so I'll be not including either of those.

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If the spell needs a touch attack AND a majority of saves over 3-5 rounds to do anything, it's completely useless in combat and pretty close outside it.

I mean, it's not the only spell that works kind-of like that.  Flesh to Stone is a level 6 spell, has a saving throw to start things off, and then the target gets the same "best of 5 saving throws".  If it fails 3 more saving throws, it becomes petrified.  (Also, this requires concentration, unlike Contagion).  The one big advantage is that it does restrain the target while they're in the second phase of rolling.

Some spells just aren't that great, though, and Flesh to Stone is one of them.

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Lesser Restoration will remove it and it's a L2! If you're Level 9+, any Important NPC you might conceivably want to hit with this (assuming you could even do it in a way that doesn't trigger combat, meaning you'd be better off just having striking her with a sword) is gonna be able to talk to a a healer who knows Lesser Restoration. Or just use a potion/spell.

I mean...eventually they'd travel to a town to get it healed.  My idea for using the nerfed version would be to have a spider Familiar, have the spider deliver the Contagion, wait 3-5 turns, see if it takes, and then the moment the big bad screams "My skin! What's wrong with my..." ambush the camp before a cleric can examine her and identify the disease.

It's one of these "only if you have your opponents ambushed" spells.  But it's also not a concentration spell, so I actually think it still has use.

(Like...moreso than Flesh to Stone.  Breaking the concentration economy is a pretty big deal).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 12, 2016, 05:54:16 AM
I'm pretty sure 100 gp uncommon items would have to refer to consumables only. The section on crafting magical items notes that it costs 500 gp and 20 days to craft an uncommon-tier one... so the market price should be a bit higher than 500 if anything. And the DMG kinda encourages you to make magic items a bit harder to come by than just "you walk into a store and there they are", with plenty of leeway for the magic level of the campgain. Some DMs swear by not using them period, or at least not the stat-boosting ones.

By contrast, it's expected that you allow all the standard PHB armour. So what I'm saying is... while I'm fine with putting half/full plate on the same "tier" as the uncommon magic items (in terms of how many each PC can afford), I don't think they should be treated as more rare, since I don't think you'll find many campaigns where that is the case.


Flesh to Stone is permanent and can only be undone by Greater Restoration. It's also something a villain (or PC!) can do to put her enemies proudly on display, a spell which is more "cool" than it is practical. I agree that it's a bad spell for most purposes. So I'm not a fan of taking a spell which is by-the-book strong and lowering it to that level (or even slightly better, for all that I'm not impressed by your proposed use for it, sorry~).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2016, 06:23:01 AM
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By contrast, it's expected that you allow all the standard PHB armour. So what I'm saying is... while I'm fine with putting half/full plate on the same "tier" as the uncommon magic items (in terms of how many each PC can afford), I don't think they should be treated as more rare, since I don't think you'll find many campaigns where that is the case.

Well fair enough, yeah.  I think it's to be expected that most PCs will find some kind of magic weapon eventually, just to get around damage resistances.  Mages don't need their +1 to hit weapon, but I'm handing it out so that they get something too.  And Shields...apparently +1 shields are more common than +1 armor, and I suspect shields could use a little bit of incentive (since none of the big damage feats work with a shield--with some debate about hand crossbows, but the official errata seems to be you need your second hand to reload).  Granted, this is just counting monoclassing.  Mages that dip one level for shields, and don't plan on using a weapon...may find their GM less generous with +1 shields.....


Oh, yeah, one last assumption for these level 6 characters: Vanilla human, cause it involves less thinking!  Also, a cap on min maxing--at most 16/16/14 for starting stats. (which probably means most characters will be 16/16/14/12/10/9.  Maybe some want 16/14/14/13/12/10).

We're going to need something to compare this to

CR6 creatures...

Mammoth (13 AC, 126 HP, 25 damage at +10 to hit)

Medusa (15 AC, 127 HP, 14 damage at +5 to hit...though it's mostly about the petrify)

Invisible Stalker (14 AC, 104 HP, 20 damage at +6 to hit; also invisible)

Hobgoblin Warlord (20 AC, 97 HP, 19 damage at +9 to hit; also a big pile of leadership stuff)

Githzerai Zerth (17 AC, 84 HP, 22 damage at +7 to hit)

Galeb Duhr (16 AC, 85 HP, 12 damage at +8 to hit, special ability to summon two more of itself)

Drider (19 AC, 123 HP, 24 damage at +6 to hit)

Young Brass Dragon (17 AC, 110 HP, 37 damage at +7 to hit.  Also fire breath for 42 AoE)
(and some other young dragons that are similar)

Vrock (15 AC, 104 HP, 24 damage at +6 to hit)

Chasme (15 AC, 84 HP, 40 damage at +5 to hit)

Cyclops (14 AC, 138 HP, 38 damage at +9 to hit)

Chimera (14 AC, 114 HP, 32 damage at +7 to hit, sometimes 52 dmg with fire breath)


So...the median monster is

15 AC, 107 HP, 25 damage, +7 to hit.

We will roll with this for calculation purposes.  (Obviously one CR6 monster should handle multiple party members).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2016, 07:14:59 AM
Starting off with Barbarian.  16/16/14/what's a mental stat?

The big decision is the ASI, and whether you use Reckless Attacks, and whether to use shields.

Baseline without the ASI

+7 to hit.  (65% chance to hit 15 AC).  Reckless attacks can make this 88% chance to hit 15 AC.

17 AC with medium armor.  +7 to hit has a 55% chance of hitting that.  Reckless Attacks increases that to 80%.

20 AC with a shield.  40% chance of hitting that.  64% chance of being hit with Reckless Attacks.

In general...Reckless Attacks will probably be worth-it.  35% increase to damage, vs 45% or 60% decrease in durability.  But you're the tankiest person in the party.  If the enemy is attacking you, the party is probably winning the encounter.

As for whether the shield is worth it, well if we are going reckless attacks it's a 25% durability boost.

Your damage per attack is +3+2+dice.  2d6 for a greatsword, d8 for a 1 handed weapon.  12 vs 9.5 per hit...a 26% increase.  So far the shield doesn't look worth-it.

Alright, so great weapon master...takes us from 24 to 44, for how much decrease in accuracy?  We drop to 40% accuracy; reckless attacks increases that to 64% accuracy.  Overall a 33% increase (equivalent of 32 damage).

Polearm Master gives us more attacks with worse dice and no way to +10 that shit.  10.5+10.5+7.5 = 28.5

OK, so great weapon master.  Average damage per turn (after accounting for accuracy) is about 28.5.

Get hit 80% of the time for 25 damage (which Bear totem cuts in half), so you take an average of 10 damage per turn.

Barbarian HP: 65

So...Barbarian kills this monster in 4 turns on average.  Monster kills Barbarian in 6-7 turns on average.  BARBARIAN WINS!

(Wat?  Single level 6 PC solos CR6 monster.  Kay.  Granted, several of the monsters had status n shit to worry about.  Also, only 4 rages per day).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2016, 08:03:45 AM
Bard

So...support characters will be weird when doing a pure numeric comparison.  You probably want to use your ASI on Charisma.  Charisma will not factor into durability or damage, and only factor a little bit into healing.  Or you start with an odd numbered con score, and take Resilient for the concentration.  You certainly could go like...Sharpshooter into Valor Bard.  And you'd be only moderately worse than other archers.  We're min maxing, here, though, so what can we max?  Healing obviously, which means Lore bard.

You pick up Aura of Vitality on level 3.  70 healing, usable from bonus actions spread over 10 turns.  It's good.  You also have Song of Rest, which is 3.5 free healing to those who need it whenever they use hit dice in a short rest.  You could grab Prayer of Healing for out of combat 13 HP AoE healing.  If two party members are damaged enough, it's like 26 healing.  Hmm...maybe not worth the magical secrets slot, TBH--might be better to grab another combat spell, like Fireball or Counterspell.

Either way, three Aura of Vitality is 210 healing throughout the day.  Maybe another 21 free healing from Song of Rest during short rests.  And potentially dump your level 1 and 2 slots on Cure Wounds for another 34+39.  So...total healing if you burn every spell slot on it 304.

Your best damage without spells is probably shooting an arrow.  7.5 damage.  I guess 8.5 with a magic bow.  If magic, +7 to hit, but using bows without Sharpshooter means partial cover whenever you fire at someone in melee range, so more like +6 to hit (60% chance to hit AC 15).  5 average damage per round.  Or you can Viscious Mockery cantrip for 5 damage and some status (Can be negated with a wisdom saving throw).

Durability...if you did 16/16/14 with 16 DEX, 14 Con...you have 15 AC (65% chance to hit you), 45 HP.  Takes about 3 turns on average for the monster to kill that.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 12, 2016, 08:10:07 AM
One thing to keep in mind is that CR6 is... in a weird space for a Level 6 party. In fact you may not see too many CR6's at that point, as they're too a bit too weak to be solos but would be too strong with almost any reasonable support. They're workable if we're doing the Palpatine + 2 sith mooks which Mace Windu OHKOs, or if you want a battle which is either very easy (no support) or "you screwed up and you should either retreat or surrender, foolish PCs" (with actual support).

So as a pure data point I'll just list what my party fought during Level 6. Some DM talk here, I usually try to create encounters which fall in the "hard" range in the DMG (sometimes getting into "Very Hard" because I have 5-6 PCs instead of 4, before any multiplier changes for having 6 PCs). This is because I usually have no more than 4 per day, 8 such encounters would certainly be unreasonable.

Here is a full list of encounters my party fought at Level 6:
1x CR 2, 2x CR 1, 3x CR 1/2 (this was only 3 PCs, every other fight in this sequence is 5 except where noted)
1x CR 5, 1x CR 3
1x CR 3, 2x CR 1, 5x CR 1/2
1x CR 4, 5x CR 1/2
2x CR 3, 6x CR 1/2
A sequence where the PCs chased a CR ~5 NPC
1x CR 3, 3x CR 1, 4x CR 1/2 (the PCs stealthed around this one but I include it as another data point)
A series where each PC had to fight a duel against a CR ~3 custom enemy

(fun fact: CR X enemies tend to be similar in power to Level X+3 PCs roughly, though this breaks down at higher levels or with certain PC abilities which would make for dramatically stronger enemies (e.g. a CR 2 enemy should not have Fireball). Once I realised this, one change I made to the MM was to give monsters proficiency bonuses as if their level were CR+3, which helps 75% of them with their accuracy. Which IMO is a good change, especially if you do allow +1 shields)

Some food for thought anyway, which will mostly matter when you start trying to break down how good AoE damage is I suppose. Optimally you'd want to get multiple DMs to have inputs here.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Luther Lansfeld on June 12, 2016, 08:14:23 AM
A sequence where the PCs chased a CR ~5 NPC

and she got away >_<
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 12, 2016, 08:25:16 AM
Barbarian notes:
Y'know I normally dismiss Great Weapon Master, because lol 40% have fun being unreliable, but it's actually pretty solid with advantage to make up for it and yeah Reckless Attack is cool. It does leave you extremely vulnerable to non-physical AC attacks... though yes, Bear Totem deals with that weakness! The reason I kinda assume otherwise is the Wolf effect at that level is good, though harder to quantify as it does depend on party somewhat. Of course, if Wolf is indeed the better choice, well, you've already proven shown its baseline with Bear, so more power to it. Psychic damage is extremely rare.

Bard:
While it's probably not as good overall, should mention that Valour Bard has 17*0.65 = 11 damage with a Rapier and 17? 18? AC with a shield. (Not sure exactly what equipment you ended up allowing, or rather how many.) Losing Fireball/Aura of Vitality kinda sucks but reasonable spammable damage + Shatter (13.5-18 AoE) and Hypnotic Pattern along with the revival healing is a pretty nice all-around package? Uberhealing Bard is probably more optimised, though. It'll be interesting to see how other healing figures compare.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Excal on June 12, 2016, 08:38:54 AM
I can't speak for 5e encounter design, but in 3.5 you wouldn't really be making encounters with CR = to the character level all that often.  Your goal is to follow some arcane formula that will eventually have a final CR equal to the party level, which would then supposedly eat up roughly 1/4 of the party's daily resources.  4e, on the other hand, the monsters were statted out such that their level is the level they are intended to be fought at at equal numbers to the party.


As for the debate on Contagion.  I'm not sure what level I would take it at if its effects kicked in after three turns.  But frankly, given how quickly enemies drop in combat, the idea of someone lasting long enough to fail three saves is laughable.  As for the player not using it because they correctly foresaw it would be resisted....  uh, yes.  Very clever player.  They totally knew that would be the case and didn't forget they had it and blow all their Lv.5s on other stuff on the way there anyways.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 12, 2016, 08:45:53 AM
I'm glad that player feels he blew his L5s.

Because from my point of view it was "okay I will make her demon servants immune some elements so they won't be mowed down by fireball/shatter ho ho ho I'm so clever but I should probably also give them a weakness to compensate hmmmm yeah radiant would make the most flavour sense and I'm fine with Moonbeam getting a push and OH DEAR GOD NO I DIDN'T KNOW HRODATH HAD THAT".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 12, 2016, 11:50:36 PM
Mostly finished this post last night, but got slightly distracted by current events in Florida.  (Also Cleric has a lot of subclasses).

Cleric.

So lets jump right to Life Cleric, as it's the healing numbers cleric, and we just did healing numbers Bard.

Right off the bat, their short rest game is really good.  They (as of 6th level) get two Channel Divninitys per short rest.  Each Channel restores 30 HP, so 60 HP restored per short rest.  (This restoration only works on creatures below half HP, though, and since you probably want to restore to full between fights, you're still burning spells).

So...how do we process this Channel Divinity?  Maybe just say that you only need half as much healing from spells and other effects, since you start from half health and not 0.

Can we get to 150 from spells?  17 healing Prayer of Healings help.  If these heal two people, that's 34.  Times three is 102.  You can cast this out of a third level slot for 22.5 per damaged target (again 3 slots, and if we heal 2 targets it's 135).  But yeah, we should be able to make it to 150.  Life Cleric still wins at level 6.


Non-life Clerics put up lower numbers, of course.  Dumping all 2/3 slots into Prayer of Healing they can do 13 with their level 2 slots (hit two people each time and it's 78 healing).  They can do 17.5 with their level 3 slots (hit two each time and it's 105 healing).  They also can't use their Channel Divinity to in-combat heal someone back to consciousness, and the in-combat not prayer of healing spells heal for a whole lot less.  So...I would eyeball 150 healing maybe?  If they use all/most of their spell slots on it?


Durability wise Clerics should be solid.  This is a case where you might actually take 15 starting strength just to wear heavy armour.  So...16/15/14 for Wis/Str/Con look like OK stats.  Building dex is also fine, and probably what you want to do with the ones that don't get heavy armour.  And of course you can use a shield (and your attacks are pretty bad so you might as well).  With this plan you'll have 45 HP, like the bard.

21 AC gets hit 35% of the time by a +7 to hit.  In general lives through about 5 turns.

You could take Heavy Armor Master to make that 10 turns against some enemies.  But presumably you want to raise your Wisdom first.

In terms of your sustain damage...Melee attacks are like 2+1d8 = 6.5 damage.  I guess 7.5 with a magic weapon.  Cantrips are 2d8 damage (9 damage).  Not counting hit chance, for either of these, though.  Probably about +6 to hit if 14 strength and magic weapon (60% hit chance).  4.5 average damage per turn.  Add this to Spiritiual Weapon damage of 4+1d8 = 8.5 (5.5 average damage).  10 damage on average!  Obviously some of the domains offer big damage spells.  Fireball from the Light domain (28 AoE damage, save for half).

Light domain has extra durability with Warding Flare making your AC effectively higher Wis times per round.  The Channel Divinity at this level is 2d10+6 = 16 damage.  So...a (slightly more than half) damage fireball twice per short rest.

Tempest Domain seems built to use Call Lightning, which deals 3d10 to a 5 foot radius area, every turn until they break concentration.  (Average 16.5 damage).  They can combo this with channel divinity for 30 damage a few times.  Of course, nothing stopping them from having Spiritual Weapon on for an extra 5.5 per turn.

War domain...well I mean...I guess you could take something like Great Weapon Master, start with 16 strength, use two Channel Divinities with the +10 and the bonus action attack, this gives you a 90% chance to hit.  Each hit deals 3+1+2d6+10 = 21 damage.  For one turn you average 37.8 damage...and then you need to finish a short rest or you deal about 13.  You also take Great Weapon Master instead of +2 Wis in order to pull this off at all.

I dunno, I see people online praise war domain, and I'm not entirely sure why.  Like...bonus action attacks wis times per day...that's...cool, but there's a lot of ways to get bonus action attacks (polearm master, Monk, crossbow expert) not to mention, Spiritual Weapon already sort-of gives Priests bonus action attacks.  Accuracy buffing is cool, but then you need to put ASIs into your attacks so that your attacks actually matter.  Fighters dipping Cleric might be the better use of War domain Cleric.  (Also, you probably use Sharpshooter instead of GWM, since you want to get out of dodge when you have no more channel divinities left...which will basically be after one turn of attacks; this lowers the one-round damage from 37.8 to 32.8).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 12:08:40 AM
Barbarian notes:
Y'know I normally dismiss Great Weapon Master, because lol 40% have fun being unreliable, but it's actually pretty solid with advantage to make up for it and yeah Reckless Attack is cool. It does leave you extremely vulnerable to non-physical AC attacks... though yes, Bear Totem deals with that weakness! The reason I kinda assume otherwise is the Wolf effect at that level is good, though harder to quantify as it does depend on party somewhat. Of course, if Wolf is indeed the better choice, well, you've already proven shown its baseline with Bear, so more power to it. Psychic damage is extremely rare.

Bard:
While it's probably not as good overall, should mention that Valour Bard has 17*0.65 = 11 damage with a Rapier and 17? 18? AC with a shield. (Not sure exactly what equipment you ended up allowing, or rather how many.) Losing Fireball/Aura of Vitality kinda sucks but reasonable spammable damage + Shatter (13.5-18 AoE) and Hypnotic Pattern along with the revival healing is a pretty nice all-around package? Uberhealing Bard is probably more optimised, though. It'll be interesting to see how other healing figures compare.

I mean, I keep wanting to dismiss the -5 accuracy +10 damage effects, but usually when I run the numbers they end up being more average damage.  Even when the hit rate sounds hilariously awful like 35%.  If you hit 35% of the time, that means you'd hit 60% of the time without using this feature, so +10 only has to roughly double the damage to be a better trade (and +10 usually does roughly double the damage).

For a comparison, I haven't been impressed AT ALL by numbers I've run on Crit Fishing builds.  (Y'know, Barbarian 9 for Brutal Critical, Champion Fighter for Improved Critical.  If you fight with advantage you now have a 20% chance to crit!  Which...actually means your average damage per attack has been increased by 1.35, and all you had to do was take 9 levels in Barbarian, and give up Battlemaster maneuvers which can add d8 to your damage...and make it so that you won't get your third attack till level 20.  Woo?  Yeah...don't bother with that build unless you had other reasons to get that many levels in Fighter/Barb anyway).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 12:56:13 AM
Druid.

404 Druid not found.  Did you mean Polar Bear?

Polar Bear!
42 HP
12 AC
21 damage at +7 to hit

+7 to hit is 65% chance to hit.  13.5 average damage per turn.

The enemy also has +7 to hit, against 12 AC, so that's an 80% chance to hit.  Polar Bear lives about two turns on average.  This is actually pretty typical of DC2 creatures; some have even less AC (Rhinoceros) and the same HP.  Giant Elk is a little better in the AC department (14, best AC in tier!), but +6 to hit and needs to knock a target prone.  Giant Constrictor Snake has 60 HP, but half the damage.

So...realistically you concentrate on a spell.  Like...Barkskin can give you 16 AC; that's still not that impressive, though.  If the enemy doesn't have AoE you might do well with Conjure Animals.  Like...summon four Apes...each of whom can deal 10 damage (+5 to hit, so 55% chance).  And then turn into a Giant Elk to knock your opponent prone while the apes beat on it.  Alternatively, summon two Brown Bears, who deal about 19 damage with +5 hit.  Averages about 10.5 per bear.

Mmm...you'd think that a Druid with two wildshapes who just had wildshape upgraded, who is also concentrating on a spell would do okay in a 1v1.  Two wild shapes is definitely not enough.  With spells...only if the enemy doesn't have AoE and is stupid and attacks your summons instead of you, I think.

Of course, Druid is still a perfectly fine healer and utility caster.  (Although isn't going to compete with the big healing numbers at this level, since they just have the three level 1 spells right now, but their in-combat healing is fine, and converting extra spell slots to Goodberry right before a long rest tends to give them essentially free out of combat healing).

Hmm...wondering if I'm doing Wild Shape wrong at all.  Oh!  I'm probably supposed to use the level 6 proficiency bonus, so...5% better hit on Polar Bear attacks.  K.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 01:47:33 AM
Tempest Cleric:
Call Lightning is fine and all, but let's talk about Shatter, which feels the more important spell to note here. It's got a bigger radius than Call Lightning, and deals more initial damage as a L3 (18, channel divinity is 32), and doesn't require 100 feet of space above your target. And it can be used as a L2 as well, for 75% effectiveness. Call Lightning can be better, but you have to keep your concentration (and not have other good actions) to justify it. And... yeah, generally, in practice AoE feels really important. Shatter catches extra enemies a LOT compared to Call Lightning-esque spells in my experience.

Druid:
One of two 5e classes I've yet to see played at my table, I have nothing to add about them at this time.


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I mean, I keep wanting to dismiss the -5 accuracy +10 damage effects, but usually when I run the numbers they end up being more average damage.  Even when the hit rate sounds hilariously awful like 35%.  If you hit 35% of the time, that means you'd hit 60% of the time without using this feature, so +10 only has to roughly double the damage to be a better trade (and +10 usually does roughly double the damage).

Mmm.

The thing is, which is better? 100% chance of 10 damage, or 50% chance of 20 damage?

And the answer is, the reliable one is definitely better. There are two reasons for this. One is that, we aren't usually just wailing down a huge solo, but taking out enemies who have considerably less HP than this. Which is to say... a reasonable share of your attacks are kills. And if you're targetting something with 4 HP left, then your damage doesn't matter, only your accuracy. (Granted, Great Weapon Master and its ilk are a bit better about this, since if you KNOW something only has 4 HP left, then you can use the more accurate version. But you usually won't know an enemy's exact HP, I'd say.)

The second reason to prize reliability is that... well, honestly, in most D&D campaigns, if the players approach things with some bare minimum of intelligence, most fights will be slanted in their favour; that is, almost all fights will be ones they have greater than a 50% chance to win. Usually quite a lot better! So the players are massive favourites. And that means they need to play like favourites, employing Goliath strategies (http://smartfootball.blogspot.ca/2009/05/david-strategies-and-goliath-strategies.html), that is, reliable ones. Because with things slanted in their favour, to lose they need to get unlucky, and trying to go for big 40% hits is an excellent way to get unlucky.

Of course, the opposite is true if the player team is trying to win a fight they really "shouldn't", like picking a fight with someone the DM has advertised as too strong for them. At that point, you need luck to win, so sure, fish for criticals and low-accuracy high-damage shots!


To return to the specific case of Barbarian... 16 Str, +1 weapon, +2 rage damage, right? Greatsword. 14 base damage per swing, 65% hit, 88% reckless. With ASI, 15 and 70% hit, 91% reckless. With Great Weapon Master, 24 damage, 40% hit, 64% reckless. Times 2 in all cases.

Great Weapon Master: 48*0.64 = 30.7 (I think you missed the +1 from magic weapon)
18 Str: 30*0.91 = 27.3

So... 12% more damage for the wilder build. Again, reckless attacks certainly makes this more palatable than it would be otherwise. But is the 12% damage difference worth the lower reliability? I don't really know the answer to that. I could see going either way.

(It's also worth noting that the GWM build has bonus action attacks on a kill/crit (10% chance!), while the 18 Str build has +1 damage/accuracy with javelins and is 5% better at athletics/strength saves/etc. I'm willing to assume those advantages roughly offset.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 01:52:56 AM
Fighter.

So Fighter is interesting because you don't have a 100% reliable way to get advantage.  But you really want advantage.  Battlemaster with Trip Attack is one way to get advantage.

Except you also want to use Archery ideally, because +2 to hit from the fighting style matters a ton if you're using the -5 accuracy on Sharpshooter.  And attacking prone creatures outside of melee range gives disadvantage.  But also, using a ranged weapon within 5 ft of an enemy also gives disadvantage.  Crossbow Expert can remove the second disadvantage, though.

So...ok, Sharpshooter+Crossbow Expert+Trip Attack then?  Trip someone with your...hand crossbow attack (uh) and then walk up to them and shoot them while they're on the ground (ok, this part doesn't sound quite as silly as that first part).

Strength Saving throw to avoid tripping...DC is going to be 14.  CR6 monsters had +7 to attack, which implies +4 strength mod.  So...45% to trip the target (Assuming you hit).

That's...actually fairly unreliable.  There's another maneuver that gives you advantage on one roll; it takes your bonus action, though, so you wouldn't get the bonus action attack.

That said, you could ditch Crossbow Master, and get +1 DEX instead.  This gives you +10 to hit (+5 when using Sharpshooter).  So...55% chance to hit when using Sharpshooter, and 80% chance to hit without.  4+1+1d8+10 = 19.5.  55% chance to hit lowers that to 10.7.  Using the advantage maneuver gives you an 80% chance to hit (and adds d8 damage) for 19.2 average damage on one attack.  Or you can use the Precision Attack maneuver which...hold on let me use a spreadsheet...gives you a 78% chance to hit, but has the advantage that you get to wait until after seeing your roll to decide whether you want to burn a maneuver or not.  (If you've figured out the enemy AC, you probably want to activate precision if your D20 is between 5-9.  Only activating it in that range means your to hit becomes 74%, but it also means that you only use one maneuver every four attacks for a 74% accuracy with sharpshooter).

Yeah, ok, I like this plan.  74% accuracy, and not adding the superiority dice to the damage role, means 14.5 damage per arrow.  29 damage with two attacks.  58 damage with Action Surge.

Doing the same thing with Crossbow Master (no +1 ASI to dex)...well, ok for starters the base damage per shot is now 17.5 (d6 damage, -1 from less dex).  69% accuracy.  12 average damage per attack.  60 damage from an action surge, and 36 damage without.  Mmm...I guess that's technically better?  You will burn through superiority dice a bit faster, though (averaging 3/4 of a dice per turn instead of 1/2 of a dice per turn).  It does re-open the plan of "trip the target, and then walk up to them and shoot them in the face", though, so more options.

Either way, Fighter kills in about 3 turns.

Durability: Probably not wearing plate, can't use shields if you want to reload your bows, so...medium armour, 17 AC.  16 DEX 16 CON sounds reasonable enough.  58 HP.  (Plus a bonus action to heal 11.5 HP.  Once per short rest, though; watch out Bard!)

So...Fighter kills in 3 rounds pretty reliably.  Gets killed in about 4 rounds, but can use a bonus action to delay that to 5 rounds.  (In today's big shocker, things that Barbarian can do, Fighters can also do).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 02:29:28 AM
Not super-impressed by bow fighter.

First of all, while I agree that it works by RAW, I think Trip Attack is begging for a DM to slap a "melee attacks only" flag on it for reasons which are obvious. Fortunately, Feinting Attack and Precision Attack also exist.

Secondly, bows can't opportunity attack. You're a fighter. One of your big advantages is that you are more durable than the party average, can get in enemy faces and make them attack you, or risk your opportunity attack (which can potentially trip or push). If you can't opportunity attack... too bad, so sad, you don't get this advantage, and the enemies will probably work on hitting your more fragile allies. If you want credit for your durability, better have a melee weapon.

Thirdly, ranged attacks have disadvantage at melee. You're not a rogue, you don't have free disengage. Nor do you have saving throw spells like a pinned mage. If enemy(s) close to melee with you, and you don't have Crossbow Expert... what are you gonna do, exactly? Use Evasive Footwork for +4.5 AC against the opportunity attacks, or accept disadvantage. Neither sounds great.


Duelling rapier fighter, 2x ASI:

Damage is 1d8 +2 (duelling) +1 (magic) +5 (stat) = 12.5, with 75% hit. If we use Precision Attack we... basically don't miss. 91-94% accuracy depending on if your DM lets you recover from rolling a 1. So... 23 damage with two attacks. 19-20 AC. So... less damaging than the crossbow build, but more reliable, more durable, and can actually tank/defend.

Greatsword fighter. Your armour is more expensive, and you have -2 accuracy, but you still have opportunity attacks and you do hit harder when you hit. Without GWM, first, that's... 20 Str. Greatsword with the damage boost is 8.33, so that +5 +1 = 14.33 per swing, 28.67 for two, 91-94% accuracy. So... 26-27 or so. Beats the crossbow build in practice. 17-18 AC depending on if we allow plate. Lower initiative than Dex builds, stealth disadvantage, Dex checks/saves are more common than Str ones for what it's worth.

Greatsword fighter with Great Weapon Master? Base hit drops to 70%, if you fish it's 45%. This is lower than I'd like, even with Precision Attack, which makes it like 60%. Still, 23.33 per swing = 46.67 * .6 = 28.3 or so... it's there if you want it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 03:35:16 AM
Tempest Cleric:
Call Lightning is fine and all, but let's talk about Shatter, which feels the more important spell to note here. It's got a bigger radius than Call Lightning, and deals more initial damage as a L3 (18, channel divinity is 32), and doesn't require 100 feet of space above your target. And it can be used as a L2 as well, for 75% effectiveness. Call Lightning can be better, but you have to keep your concentration (and not have other good actions) to justify it. And... yeah, generally, in practice AoE feels really important. Shatter catches extra enemies a LOT compared to Call Lightning-esque spells in my experience.

Mmm...I guess I passed over Shatter because it's not very impressive (13.5 AoE damage at half the radius of Fireball?  18 AoE damage at half the radius of Fireball when cast out of a level 3 slot?)  But sure, good point, using your channel divinity and a third level slot, you can turn Shatter into roughly Fireball damage.

There's also Thunder Wave as an option, which is the same damage as Shatter, but a 15 ft radius.  Requires you being at the center of the radius, though.

(There's some argument to be made for multiclassing into Lightning Bolt, then you can deal 48 damage.  That's one hell of a multiclass, though).

I think the big damage spell here comes from the 5th level spell Destructive Wave, which ignores friendlies, has a 30 foot radius, and deals the same damage as a fireball cast out of that slot, and has a chance to knock each enemy prone.  Frankly, just an overall good spell (better than casting fireball out of a 5th level slot, that's for sure).  (Half the damage is radiant/necrotic, though.  So...if you use channel divinity here you increase damage from 35 to 17.5+30 = 47.5).

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Druid:
One of two 5e classes I've yet to see played at my table, I have nothing to add about them at this time.

The big thing that makes wild shape better is multiclassing.  Like...Barbarian for Rage stacks with wild shape.  Barbarian for Unarmored Defence stacks with wild shape (and most beasts will have decent con scores, so this isn't nothing).

From what I understand, Druid, or at least Druid who leans on wild shape is also just a class that spikes at certain levels.  Level 2 Druid becoming a Brown Bear?  Very, very strong for level 2.  Having 34 HP is really good for this level.  Attacking for 19 is really good for this level.  Then they don't get anything for a while...and then level 10 druids can become Elementals (by using both wild shape charges)--pretty good again.

(Honestly, though, druids are full casters with a ton of utility.  They probably shouldn't be able to outright solo things the Barbarian can).


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Mmm.

The thing is, which is better? 100% chance of 10 damage, or 50% chance of 20 damage?

And the answer is, the reliable one is definitely better. There are two reasons for this. One is that, we aren't usually just wailing down a huge solo, but taking out enemies who have considerably less HP than this. Which is to say... a reasonable share of your attacks are kills. And if you're targetting something with 4 HP left, then your damage doesn't matter, only your accuracy. (Granted, Great Weapon Master and its ilk are a bit better about this, since if you KNOW something only has 4 HP left, then you can use the more accurate version. But you usually won't know an enemy's exact HP, I'd say.)

The second reason to prize reliability is that... well, honestly, in most D&D campaigns, if the players approach things with some bare minimum of intelligence, most fights will be slanted in their favour; that is, almost all fights will be ones they have greater than a 50% chance to win. Usually quite a lot better! So the players are massive favourites. And that means they need to play like favourites, employing Goliath strategies (http://smartfootball.blogspot.ca/2009/05/david-strategies-and-goliath-strategies.html), that is, reliable ones. Because with things slanted in their favour, to lose they need to get unlucky, and trying to go for big 40% hits is an excellent way to get unlucky.

Of course, the opposite is true if the player team is trying to win a fight they really "shouldn't", like picking a fight with someone the DM has advertised as too strong for them. At that point, you need luck to win, so sure, fish for criticals and low-accuracy high-damage shots!


To return to the specific case of Barbarian... 16 Str, +1 weapon, +2 rage damage, right? Greatsword. 14 base damage per swing, 65% hit, 88% reckless. With ASI, 15 and 70% hit, 91% reckless. With Great Weapon Master, 24 damage, 40% hit, 64% reckless. Times 2 in all cases.

Great Weapon Master: 48*0.64 = 30.7 (I think you missed the +1 from magic weapon)
18 Str: 30*0.91 = 27.3

So... 12% more damage for the wilder build. Again, reckless attacks certainly makes this more palatable than it would be otherwise. But is the 12% damage difference worth the lower reliability? I don't really know the answer to that. I could see going either way.

(It's also worth noting that the GWM build has bonus action attacks on a kill/crit (10% chance!), while the 18 Str build has +1 damage/accuracy with javelins and is 5% better at athletics/strength saves/etc. I'm willing to assume those advantages roughly offset.)

Mmm...that's fair.  It's definitely worth noting, though, that Barbarian wielding a +1 greatsword is one case where the baseline bonuses are quite high (15 average damage on a hit without using GWM?  Damn yo.  Compare that to someone wielding a longbow, and the average damage from an attack might be 10ish).

Although since I just did the Fighter numbers let me do that comparison...2 ASIs into Dex.

5+1+d8 = 10.5 damage.  Your to hit is 5+1+3(proficiency)+2(archery) = +11.  So you hit 85% of the time.  9 average damage.  18 damage across two attacks.  36 damage on an Action Surge.  You can use Superiority Dice to add up to 4d8 = 18 more damage to this (or...if you roll a 2 or a 3 on your D20, use superiority dice to turn that into a hit; that'll probably happen once, but it adds more than a d8 of damage).  So...on average after three turns you deal 95 damage.  Compared to like...132.  This is a...38% improvement, in exchange for a little randomness.  (Or compared to the version that just uses sharpshooter and not crossbow master...22% improvement in damage)

Although...all of this is a little sketchy, because without Sharpshooter you have to worry about taking partial cover penalties from shooting into melee.  But let's ignore that for the sake of argument, because GWM doesn't come with potential +2 accuracy increases.

Alternatively, using Crossbow Master but not Sharpshooter.  4+1+d6 = 8.5 damage.  Your hit is +10, so hit 80% of the time.  6.8 average damage.  20.5 damage across three attacks.  34 damage across five attacks with an action surge.  So...basically the same average damage across three turns, except you can shoot prone enemies at point blank for advantage, so that's nice, but you do tie up your bonus action.



Hmm...well, old comparisons to FFT jump to mind.  Except in FFT you knew exactly how much HP was remaining, so you could plan out risky vs safe attacks accordingly.  (And FFT random damage had this bad habit of being lower on average than reliable damage, which is obviously silly.  But LFT fixed that).  The thing is, D&D doesn't really have reliable damage.  Like...90% to hit is about as good as it gets, and even then you roll dice for the damage.  (Using the +10 makes you much less reliant on damage rolls).

I mean, in the bow case, we're looking at...in the optimized for accuracy case, roughly a 95% chance to deal 10 damage, and pretty much guaranteed chance of using the superiority dice at some point.  Or...you can have a 74% chance of dealing 20 damage (I'll leave Crossbow Master out for now).  In a fight that lasts 3 rounds, we're looking at 8 attacks, let me pull out a spreadsheet....  The probability distribution for 74% accuracy looks like this:

(0 hits, 1 hit, 2 hits etc all the way to 8 hits)
0, 0, 0, 3%, 10%, 22%, 31%, 25%, 9%

So we're looking at what....  3% chance of dealing 60 damage.  10% chance of dealing 80 damage.  22% chance of dealing 100 damage.  65% chance of dealing 120+ damage.

This is a distribution that only deals about 22% more total damage on average, in exchange for unwanted randomness from 74% accuracy.  But it's pretty rare for this randomness to actually put it below the 95 expected damage of the "reliable" route.  (13% of the time its lower).  22% of the time it's basically the same damage (95 vs 100, ok whatever).  65% of the time it's noticeably more damage.

But wait, there's more--even with a 95% accuracy, over 8 attacks you'll roll a nat 1 sometimes (superiority dice aren't allowed to save a nat 1, pretty sure) or worse--you'll roll a 2, and then your superiority dice will roll 1, so you'll use a superiority dice and still miss--across 8 attacks, one of these scenarios happens a whopping 37% of the time.  So...if the argument is "I really want to avoid dealing 80 damage across three turns 13% of the time".  Actually, the 95% hit plan will deal 80 damage 37% of the time.  Actually maybe even a bit more common than that, because I haven't accounted for cases where you hit with all your attacks but just roll low on your damage dice.  Point is, it's D&D, there's always going to be a bell curve.

Now, you bring up good arguments that consistency is ideal.  But what does that mean precisely?  Does that mean we want to optimise...say the 5th percentile performance during a combat?  That's a definition of consistency that I can attempt to calculate or maybe simulate.  Cause yeah, there will be cases where something has a higher average, but also a higher standard deviation such that two standard deviations below average ends up being worse.  I don't think that's true in the bow fighter case, but I would guess it might be true for the barbarian.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Excal on June 13, 2016, 03:47:05 AM
A trouble in comparing this with FFT (or even LFT) is that battles there are scaled to essentially be 1/day whereas D&D you're looking at an ideal of 4/day.  This means that in FFT, each fight is ideally against an enemy that is near equal to you, whereas in D&D, as Elfboy pointed out, you're fighting an enemy inferior to you.  This is heightened further when you consider that in FFT you are expected to reload from a save if you lose, while "let's do that again" isn't considered a kosher reply to a TPK, so FFT can even present a battle that is arguably tougher than the party in good faith, while a DM who did that without heavy telegraphing (either here's how to get out of it, or here's why you should never have picked it) of some sort is a bit of a dick.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 04:21:37 AM
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There's also Thunder Wave as an option, which is the same damage as Shatter, but a 15 ft radius.  Requires you being at the center of the radius, though.

Nope, it's a cube with side length 15, which is considerably smaller than Shatter. (Area of 225 square feet instead of 314... though the way my group interprets this on a grid the gap is even bigger. Your table rules may vary.)

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Alternatively, using Crossbow Master but not Sharpshooter.  4+1+d6 = 8.5 damage.  Your hit is +10, so hit 80% of the time.  6.8 average damage.  20.5 damage across three attacks.

Also notably worse than the rapier or greatsword builds! 8.5 just too low compared to duelling/greatswords, plus the usual "haha no opportunity attacks".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 04:39:36 AM
Not super-impressed by bow fighter.

First of all, while I agree that it works by RAW, I think Trip Attack is begging for a DM to slap a "melee attacks only" flag on it for reasons which are obvious. Fortunately, Feinting Attack and Precision Attack also exist.

Yeah...I actually ended up not going with Trip Attack anyway; the 45% chance to trip was just shitty, and I didn't want to calculate what that would mean.  Also, it's literally only useful when you're ready to Action Surge.  When you're not...I mean...maybe you get one attack with advantage out of it?  Gross.

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Secondly, bows can't opportunity attack. You're a fighter. One of your big advantages is that you are more durable than the party average, can get in enemy faces and make them attack you, or risk your opportunity attack (which can potentially trip or push). If you can't opportunity attack... too bad, so sad, you don't get this advantage, and the enemies will probably work on hitting your more fragile allies. If you want credit for your durability, better have a melee weapon.

I...don't think fighters need to be the tank?  Like...they don't resist all damage the way Barbarians do.  They don't have the Druid's Wild Shape to get free 42 bonus HP (twice per short rest).

Like...they CAN play the role of the tank, and if your party doesn't have a tank and you want to play a fighter, sure, that's a good way to build them.  They're not inherently any more durable than, say, a Ranger, however.  (In fact, of the classes covered so far...Barbarian and Druid have clear tanking abilities, and Priest might be more durable too just because they can put everything into AC without losing much).

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Thirdly, ranged attacks have disadvantage at melee. You're not a rogue, you don't have free disengage. Nor do you have saving throw spells like a pinned mage. If enemy(s) close to melee with you, and you don't have Crossbow Expert... what are you gonna do, exactly? Use Evasive Footwork for +4.5 AC against the opportunity attacks, or accept disadvantage. Neither sounds great.

But I did end up getting Crossbow Expert after evaluating going without (Crossbow Expert + Sharpshooter had the most damage...).


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Duelling rapier fighter, 2x ASI:

Damage is 1d8 +2 (duelling) +1 (magic) +5 (stat) = 12.5, with 75% hit. If we use Precision Attack we... basically don't miss. 91-94% accuracy depending on if your DM lets you recover from rolling a 1. So... 23 damage with two attacks. 19-20 AC. So... less damaging than the crossbow build, but more reliable, more durable, and can actually tank/defend.

OK...the issue I have with this build is where do you go from here?  I guess you use your ASIs at this point on...better guarding (Sentinel) and then tankiness (CON, Heavy Armor Master or Medium Armor master depending on whether you're dex or str based?)  Yeah, that works.  I will note that if you're focused on damage that there's really no Feats left that both boost damage and let you use the duelling fighting style.  Wait...no, I'm wrong, you could get Polearm Master, and then wield a quarterstaff in one hand.  (You need to be strength based for this, of course).

In fact, pretty sure that will be better than just getting the stat to +5.

1d6 +2 (duelling) +1 magic +4 (Stat) = 10.5  (bonus attack from Polearm Master will be 9.5).  All of this with 70% accuracy (+8 to hit); with precision attack...84% chance to hit assuming you don't bother rerolling 2s or 1s (less than 50% chance to even save you--waste of a superiority dice IMO).  So...25.5 damage on average.  Compared to...I'm actually calculating precision attack only brings the 75% hit case up to 89%, which is 22 damage.

BUT, you also get extra attacks of opportunity (getting attacks when enemies enter your range).

EDIT: ah, you meant for this to be a dex build.  Well yes, no Polearm Master then.

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Greatsword fighter. Your armour is more expensive, and you have -2 accuracy, but you still have opportunity attacks and you do hit harder when you hit. Without GWM, first, that's... 20 Str. Greatsword with the damage boost is 8.33, so that +5 +1 = 14.33 per swing, 28.67 for two, 91-94% accuracy. So... 26-27 or so. Beats the crossbow build in practice. 17-18 AC depending on if we allow plate. Lower initiative than Dex builds, stealth disadvantage, Dex checks/saves are more common than Str ones for what it's worth.

Greatsword fighter with Great Weapon Master? Base hit drops to 70%, if you fish it's 45%. This is lower than I'd like, even with Precision Attack, which makes it like 60%. Still, 23.33 per swing = 46.67 * .6 = 28.3 or so... it's there if you want it.

Again, I'm calculating that with precision attacks it only brings it up to 89%, so 20 str GWM is looking at 25.5 average damage per turn.

18 STR Precision attack with GWM...ok so...4+1+3 = +8 to hit.  Down to +3 to hit.  Don't roll below 12.  On an 11-7 precision attack can help you.  Below that...I probably wouldn't waste a superiority dice because it has a more than 50% chance of still missing.  64% chance to hit.  So...30 damage on average.

That said, if you're looking for an opportunity attack machine with a two handed weapon, I think what you want is Polearm Master and smack people with a Hatbot...I mean Halberd.  Compared to the Quarterstaff calculations above...it's d10 instead of d6, so +4 damage (+3.4 after accuracy).  29 average damage.  Reach.  And Reach on opportunity attacks so you zone out more of the battlefield, and more stuff that triggers opportunity attacks.  You can also combine this with GWM if you feel like it (Hatbot...I mean Halberds are a two handed heavy weapon.  59% accuracy even after precision attack.  (3+1+10)x3 + 1d4+2d10 = 42+13.5 = 55.5.  32.5 average damage.  Eh nah, as tolerant as I am of a little extra variance, that's only a 10% damage increase, doesn't sound worth-it.

So...if you're looking for an opportunity attack zoning tank, I think you want Polearm Master and +2 STR.  (Unless you wanted to REALLY focus on opportunity attacks, and then you go Polearm Master and Sentinel).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 05:19:56 AM
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Like...they CAN play the role of the tank, and if your party doesn't have a tank and you want to play a fighter, sure, that's a good way to build them.  They're not inherently any more durable than, say, a Ranger, however.  (In fact, of the classes covered so far...Barbarian and Druid have clear tanking abilities, and Priest might be more durable too just because they can put everything into AC without losing much).

Well, a shield Fighter is pretty high up the tanking list? d10 HP, high AC, some defensive maneuver options or Protection/Defense, Second Wind. Sure, not Barbarian/Druid though, but in a random party of four classes, there's a non-negligible chance your fighter is the most durable, and they'll pretty much always be above average. "Being able to protect lower-durability units" is a thing Barbarian, Druid have too, mind (and will be a point in their favour when the casters are saying "check out my Fireball, you can't keep up with this") but it's also an advantage Fighter has. You're proposing erasing it and... not gaining all that much damage.

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But I did end up getting Crossbow Expert after evaluating going without (Crossbow Expert + Sharpshooter had the most damage...).

Oh, I didn't even notice that, I assume the "I like this plan" build was the one you settled on! Okay.

I'm pretty leery on using Precision to amp your bonus attacks too, you're gonna run out of maneuvers pretty fast that way as you note. Remember these will have to last multiple combats most likely. I propose that to keep the playing field level we try to make everyone burn through these dice at the same rate... so either 20% or 25% on the two attacks they all get (your call which, I don't really care).

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OK...the issue I have with this build is where do you go from here?  I guess you use your ASIs at this point on...better guarding (Sentinel) and then tankiness (CON, Heavy Armor Master or Medium Armor master depending on whether you're dex or str based?)  Yeah, that works.

You're never running out of good options for level up bonuses, even as a fighter. Tough is quietly really good, for instance. (Equal to +4 Con for HP purposes, though no boost to Con checks/saves... winning trade for someone who doesn't make concentration checks surely.)

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Compared to...I'm actually calculating precision attack only brings the 75% hit case up to 89%, which is 22 damage.

Not that it -really- matters but this isn't right. Let's say we make 20 attacks.

75% hit means we already land hits on 6 or higher. So... 15 hits.
5 means we use a superiority die and automatically hit. 16 hits.
4 -> superiority die makes you hit 7/8 of the time. 16.875
3 -> superiority die makes you hit 6/8 of the time. 17.625
2 -> superiority die makes you hit 5/8 of the time. 18.25

91% chance to hit, 20% we burn a die.

1 -> if your DM rules that a superiority die can save this AND you think it's worthwhile, 4/8 chance. 18.75. 94%, but 25% chance we burn a die.

You may want to recheck your other calculations I suppose.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 05:36:42 AM
What comes after fighter?  Oh it's Monk.

Welp, Monk doesn't have equipment choices.  Or build choices.  18 Dex, 16 Wis, 14 Con.

Oh yeah, another fun fact about monk?  All these shiny magic weapons?  Only help two of their four attacks.  RIP unarmed strikes

So...+1 quarterstaff I guess. 4+1+1d8 (9.5 damage) with +8 to hit...for two attacks.  (70% chance to hit).  4+1d6 (7.5 damage) with +7 to hit for the other two attacks.  (65% chance to hit).  23 average damage.

Well...that's not strictly accurate, actually.  When you hit with Flurry of Blows punches, you can knock enemies prone if you're open hand technique (dex save, 14 DC).  Every time you hit you can try to use Stunning Strike (con save 14 DC).  And landing any of these things gives you advantage.  (91% hit and 88% hit respectively after advantage).  If you are attacking with advantage, it's 30.5 average damage.

Of course, if you're out of Ki, or can't spare Ki for flurry of blows, which you might be after a couple turns, then it's 18 damage (24 damage with advantage)

Your AC is 17 (you get hit 55% of the time).  So...14 average damage.  Your HP is 45 (we've been here before).  You live about three turns.

That said, 1v1 potential is reasonably high, thanks to stunning strike chains.  Stun lasts until the end of your next turn, so you get the rest of the current turn, and next turn to unload.  Stun makes them automatically fail dex and str saves, so if you use a flurry of blows during the stun turns, you can guaranteed knock them prone, and/or knock them 15 feet away from you.  (Which if they're melee means they waste the stun turn, and waste the next turn after it standing up, and thus basically lose two turns from a single stun).

So mmm...I feel like Monk is generally going to take around 5-6 turns to kill, and dies in 3 turns.  Ideally the enemy would be melee, letting Monk knock out two turns with a single stun.  So...land two stuns, and monks can last for 7 turns.  Each stun is probably about 50% to work, so two stunning strikes on average (2 ki per stun, so 4 ki used so far).  Save the Flurry for when stun is about to end to knock enemy prone and away (up to 6 ki; Monks have 6 total ki at this level, so just barely enough).  Winnable, barely, assuming a melee opponent.

Of course, Monks have high dex and 45 move.  Against a strictly melee opponent in a 1v1 they could just pull out a shortbow and kite...maybe?  (Some of these monsters definitely fly too fast for that though!)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 05:59:58 AM
Stunning Strike! It isn't about advantage for Monk, though that's a nice perk. It's an enemy which can't do anything back. AND all your allies have advantage too! Even many mages, because their dex-based spells always hit! I think at some point this analysis has become kinda over-focused on 1v1s which hardly ever happen in D&D. Like... knocking an enemy prone hurts your ranged attackers. Stunning them helps everyone. This is much better and you don't acknowledge this because you seem to be only focusing on how the attacker's own moves are affected.

There is zero doubt in my mind that monk is better than barbarian at this level because holy shit stunning strike (multiple chances! Per turn!) can ruin elite monsters.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Magetastica on June 13, 2016, 06:00:27 AM
Just going to say, having played a Monk through that level range following the Open Hand technique... It's not worth it to use the Ki points on Flurry of Blows almost ever. You're definitely better off using it to only stun in a 1v1, then pull out a bow and kite. As a Monk, you're actually quite happy to engage in ranged combat because you can reduce 1 ranged missile attack by 1d10+4(mod)+6(lvl)=15.5 damage, and that's just as a reaction, so it can be done every turn, meaning that you're significantly tankier if you can turn it into a ranged combat, which you probably can.

Also, the math for the Ki usage you had in that chain is slightly off, as you would only need 1 Ki point to both knock the enemy prone and knock them away, as the Ki point is spent on activating FoB, not on activating the trip/push add-on.

Just thought I'd mention my experiences with the class, please continue, your discussions are fascinating.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 06:41:21 AM
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Compared to...I'm actually calculating precision attack only brings the 75% hit case up to 89%, which is 22 damage.

Not that it -really- matters but this isn't right. Let's say we make 20 attacks.

75% hit means we already land hits on 6 or higher. So... 15 hits.
5 means we use a superiority die and automatically hit. 16 hits.
4 -> superiority die makes you hit 7/8 of the time. 16.875
3 -> superiority die makes you hit 6/8 of the time. 17.625
2 -> superiority die makes you hit 5/8 of the time. 18.25

91% chance to hit, 20% we burn a die.

1 -> if your DM rules that a superiority die can save this AND you think it's worthwhile, 4/8 chance. 18.75. 94%, but 25% chance we burn a die.

You may want to recheck your other calculations I suppose.

Ah, no you're right, I was looking at the 70% case -> 89% chance to hit.  75%->91% you're right.

Well, a shield Fighter is pretty high up the tanking list? d10 HP, high AC, some defensive maneuver options or Protection/Defense, Second Wind. Sure, not Barbarian/Druid though, but in a random party of four classes, there's a non-negligible chance your fighter is the most durable, and they'll pretty much always be above average. "Being able to protect lower-durability units" is a thing Barbarian, Druid have too, mind (and will be a point in their favour when the casters are saying "check out my Fireball, you can't keep up with this") but it's also an advantage Fighter has. You're proposing erasing it and... not gaining all that much damage.

I mean, erasing it, but gaining +2 to hit is the big attraction.  If you want consistency, +2 to hit is much better than +2 to damage.  If you want damage and are willing to take a little bit of uncertainty, -3 to hit for +10 to damage is good.  (And is better even in average damage comparisons and certainly in reliability compared to -5 to hit for +12 to damage).

Also, 600 range with no disadvantage is a thing that is pretty neat.

I mean, to be clear in a dex build you can and likely will switch back and forth.  Even if you go for dueling and wield a rapier, sometimes you're going to pull out a bow when getting in range is impractical (ex: a flying target).  Even if you go for archery fighting style, doesn't mean you can't grab a rapier and a shield and zone for your party.

You will deal less damage in the situation you're not built for, of course.  But if your party needs zoning more than it needs damage right now, you can cover that.  If what your party really needs you to do is use an opportunity attack to trip someone before they reach your squishies, you can still do that, you just won't get the +2 damage from dueling.

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I'm pretty leery on using Precision to amp your bonus attacks too, you're gonna run out of maneuvers pretty fast that way as you note. Remember these will have to last multiple combats most likely. I propose that to keep the playing field level we try to make everyone burn through these dice at the same rate... so either 20% or 25% on the two attacks they all get (your call which, I don't really care).

Mmm...ok, so it's 8 attacks vs 11 over the course of three turns.  So...maybe if you have a bonus attack, you only reroll 20% of your D20s, and if you don't have a bonus attack then you reroll 25% of your D20s?  This comes out to...similarish numbers of rerolls over the course of three turns with an action surge?

Alright, let's recalculate with that in mind.

3(Dex)+1(magic)+3(prof)+2(archery) = +9 accuracy.  Gets reduced to +4 accuracy.  11 or higher always hits.  Reroll on 7-10.  66% chance to hit.

Damage is...

3(dex)+1(magic)+d6+10 = 17.5

11.5 average damage per attack (down from 12).  34.5 average damage per turn.  58 average damage on an action surge.  127 for three turn average damage.

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You're never running out of good options for level up bonuses, even as a fighter. Tough is quietly really good, for instance. (Equal to +4 Con for HP purposes, though no boost to Con checks/saves... winning trade for someone who doesn't make concentration checks surely.)

There's no running out of defensive ASIs.  Like...a fighter might want to get Resilliant to get proficiency in several saving throws.

There IS a limit of offence oriented ASIs, at least for certain attack plans.  Bow users have a feat to increase damage, and a feat to get bonus action attacks -- (both with multiple extra benefits like attacking at close range without disadvantage).  Heavy weapon users have a feat to increase damage, and a feat to get a bonus action attack (Again, both of which have several other benefits).  There is actually a duelist feat, and it's a reasonable ability, but it's defensive (Defensive Duelist).  And sure, if you're building a defensive rapier fighter, and you're not a Eldritch Knight, take that, it's pretty close to the Shield Spell.

I guess what I'm thinking with fighter is that they are one of the most damage focused classes (second highest damage after Rogue?  Or are they the highest?  Probably higher at this level--3d6 sneak attack damage probably isn't gonna make the difference) as opposed to some of the more tanking focused classes.  So my first instinct was to build them for damage.  Certainly they're a pretty flexible class though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 13, 2016, 06:49:10 AM
Just to briefly step in...  yeah, there's something to be said for assessing characters in the Gygaxian style of dungeon crawling D&D was originally intended as, where in room A there is an Orc guarding a pie, in room B a dire spider, in room C a baby green dragon, all just waiting for heroes to walk in so they can attack them.  I...  don't think that's a campaign I'd ever play in, and even very hacky campaigns like to have big show-up set piece boss battles often times.  This means that "burst" damage from unloading everything gets quite a bit more respect from me.  If Meteor Swarm is down, fine, whatever, go home and rest.  Unless there's a freaking war going on, it can wait.

I haven't looked closely enough at 5e to comment too much more, though!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 06:55:02 AM
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Also, the math for the Ki usage you had in that chain is slightly off, as you would only need 1 Ki point to both knock the enemy prone and knock them away, as the Ki point is spent on activating FoB, not on activating the trip/push add-on.

Hm?  No, I accounted for this.

2 average ki to stun the enemy.  1 ki to use flurry of blows.  3 ki used per stun cycle under this plan.  6 ki total.

Stunning Strike! It isn't about advantage for Monk, though that's a nice perk. It's an enemy which can't do anything back. AND all your allies have advantage too! Even many mages, because their dex-based spells always hit! I think at some point this analysis has become kinda over-focused on 1v1s which hardly ever happen in D&D. Like... knocking an enemy prone hurts your ranged attackers. Stunning them helps everyone. This is much better and you don't acknowledge this because you seem to be only focusing on how the attacker's own moves are affected.

There is zero doubt in my mind that monk is better than barbarian at this level because holy shit stunning strike (multiple chances! Per turn!) can ruin elite monsters.

Oh for sure.  And several classes that don't have much to say for themselves in a 1v1 have spells like...Hypnotic Pattern, which can just win fights; I did a pass on spell lists before; this time I'm doing a pass on raw numbers (damage, durability, healing).

Like...generally roles in combat are some people disable or control the enemy, and some people mop up the enemy with damage.  I'm looking more at the murder side of the coin here.  Monk is a little more on the control side of the coin.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 13, 2016, 07:12:01 AM
At this level I don't think any other class can compete with Warlock for damage output (unless your DM religiously keeps her monsters very, very far apart or uses very few at a time)! I mean... sure, Eldritch Blast only does 13.3, but Fireball at... say, 65% hit (+2 dex) hitting 3 targets does 69.3 and is hyper-reliable, and you get two of those per short rest, with a third once per day. That beats out fighter until... *Calcs* actually only the fifth action per short rest ignoring the Rod of the Pact Keeper recharge, so hey, more competitive than I was expecting. Of course if those Fireballs hit more than 3 enemies it gets much harder to keep up.

Fair enough about the feats meaning that 1H styles fall behind with time. Of course you can always switch to those as time goes on. And... yeah, it's totally a fair point that fighter can switch between roles. Precision does make them better at smash damage output than I was anticipating since "lol 45% accuracy" doesn't apply nearly as much when you can add a d8 to that 4 times per short rest.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 07:29:00 AM
Just to briefly step in...  yeah, there's something to be said for assessing characters in the Gygaxian style of dungeon crawling D&D was originally intended as, where in room A there is an Orc guarding a pie, in room B a dire spider, in room C a baby green dragon, all just waiting for heroes to walk in so they can attack them.  I...  don't think that's a campaign I'd ever play in, and even very hacky campaigns like to have big show-up set piece boss battles often times.  This means that "burst" damage from unloading everything gets quite a bit more respect from me.  If Meteor Swarm is down, fine, whatever, go home and rest.  Unless there's a freaking war going on, it can wait.

I haven't looked closely enough at 5e to comment too much more, though!

I mean, if this is the way the party always plays, with lots of preparation, getting in one fight, and then just GTFOing to a pocket dimension...then the DM scales up the fights accordingly, and gives you enemies too durable to die to a single Meteor Swarm.  So...you can open with Meteor Swarm, and it might still be a good idea given how much damage it does, but maybe it only takes off a fraction of the HP on the tanky enemies you're fighting.  So...basically your DM would respond to how your party was playing, and scale up fights accordingly.

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At this level I don't think any other class can compete with Warlock for damage output (unless your DM religiously keeps her monsters very, very far apart or uses very few at a time)! I mean... sure, Eldritch Blast only does 13.3, but Fireball at... say, 65% hit (+2 dex) hitting 3 targets does 69.3 and is hyper-reliable, and you get two of those per short rest, with a third once per day. That beats out fighter until... *Calcs* actually only the fifth action per short rest ignoring the Rod of the Pact Keeper recharge, so hey, more competitive than I was expecting. Of course if those Fireballs hit more than 3 enemies it gets much harder to keep up.

Well, there's another pretty easy way for the DM to play around this, which is to use enemies resistant or immune to fire, which a lot of the enemies in the monster manual are.  (Also, if you do the two encounters per short rest thing, then you don't want to drop both fireballs in the same fight).

But yeah, Fireball is very good AoE at this level.  I haven't really been analyzing AoE damage, since literally all the mages get fireball if they choose the appropriate path for it, and it deals the same damage for all of them, and they have the same number of level 3 spell slots (Warlock being the exception of course).  (Well Druid can't get Fireball--they only gets Lightning Bolt on one of the Land Druid paths, boo).  Mostly I've been using Fireball as a comparison point for similar AoE spells, like the maximize Tempest Cleric options.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 13, 2016, 08:13:12 AM
Just to briefly step in...  yeah, there's something to be said for assessing characters in the Gygaxian style of dungeon crawling D&D was originally intended as, where in room A there is an Orc guarding a pie, in room B a dire spider, in room C a baby green dragon, all just waiting for heroes to walk in so they can attack them.  I...  don't think that's a campaign I'd ever play in, and even very hacky campaigns like to have big show-up set piece boss battles often times.  This means that "burst" damage from unloading everything gets quite a bit more respect from me.  If Meteor Swarm is down, fine, whatever, go home and rest.  Unless there's a freaking war going on, it can wait.

I haven't looked closely enough at 5e to comment too much more, though!

I mean, if this is the way the party always plays, with lots of preparation, getting in one fight, and then just GTFOing to a pocket dimension...then the DM scales up the fights accordingly, and gives you enemies too durable to die to a single Meteor Swarm.  So...you can open with Meteor Swarm, and it might still be a good idea given how much damage it does, but maybe it only takes off a fraction of the HP on the tanky enemies you're fighting.  So...basically your DM would respond to how your party was playing, and scale up fights accordingly.

Sure, but the point is, having 10 charges of some ability to persist through a dungeon with aren't very relevant, but having 2 really awesome spells/abilities is, against such a scaled up fight.

To put things another way, if we have two Fire Emblem maps of equivalent difficulty, one with 30 mostly crappy enemies, and another with 6 badasses...   in the first map, there's an interesting balance between Iron Swords & legendary weapons.  In the second map, I'm just going to use Mani Katti from the start or whatever, and the fact I have a ton of charges on an Iron Sword isn't relevant.

Also, it's not "GTFO to a pocket dimension", it's "encounter over".  Like, for examples from a recent Pathfinder game...  I mean stuff like dramatic Phoenix Wright trial / inquisition conducted by the Church that ends in a throwdown complete with divine beings being summoned.  After it's over, well, we're not going to keep on going and attack the judge or something.  The fact this blew up was already a big deal and people will be cleaning up afterward, there isn't any more "dungeon" to fight.  Or for something *closer* to a dungeon, a city attacked by demons, where encounter 1 is sneaking / killing the guard demons, and encounter 2 is the big demon at the source of portal.  D&D fights - at least GOOD ones that aren't just "you win" - take long enough that it's hard to do tons of solid encounters in one session, anyway.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 13, 2016, 09:36:12 AM
Paladin

Well...ok, let me start out by saying this one is going to be a bit weird.

6th level paladins have 6 spell slots?  You could burn through an entire day's spell slots in two turns.

Another interesting question--do you increase Charisma or Strength?  Actually just for numbers sake I'll probably take GWF.  That said, Oath of Devotion using channel Divinity to add your cha modifier to your hit percentage makes the strength vs Charisma debate kinda interesting.

All three paths have ways to increase your accuracy, although Oath of the Ancients is not guaranteed to restrain the target.

Obviously, half the class abilities only work on melee, we will be hitting people with swords.  Another thing to note--when you do use Divine Smite, you only use it after connecting with your attack (so it's not like using Great Weapon Master for the +10 will waste our smites).  One final thing to note...I think maybe the best way to use smites is to go crit fishing with them?  You choose to smite after you hit, so...wait for a crit, then use your smite for doubled up smites.

I'll go with Oath of Vengeance for this.  Oath of Devotion takes an action to set up Sacred Weapon.  Oath of the Ancients has saving throws.  Oath of Vengeance has easy math.

Soo...GWM

3(str)+1(magic)+3(prof) = 7 to hit

65% chance to hit.  GWM drops us to 40% chance to hit.  Advantage brings us up to 64% chance to hit.  We've seen this with Barb.  Same thing here.

damage

3(str)+1(magic)+8.33(Greatsword with GWF)+10 = 22.33

28.5 average damage for two attacks.

The alternative (with an ASI for +2 STR) would be 13.33 damage with a 91% chance to hit, for 24 across two attacks.

Another alternative is smacking people with hatbots (halberds) at 88% chance to hit, which deals...umm, ok you probably still use the great weapon fighting style for this, which means on a d10, you reroll 20% of the time and get +4 on average (+0.8).  And on a D4 you reroll 50% of the time and get +1 on average (+0.5).  Across three hits this is +2.1 (less benefit than a greatsword obviously, which is +1.33 per attack).

So...

3+1+d10 = 9.5.

9.5+9.5+7.5+2.1 = 29.6.  Averages to 26 damage with the 88% chance to hit.  If you don't want to take the +10, this might be the better option.  (Although...that being said, Paladins have use for their bonus action...like the oath of vengeance disadvantage effect).

So ehh...lets stick with greatswords.  (Although technically I think the best for 1v1 at this level would be to take dueling, with Polearm Master and a Quarterstaff).



As for divine smites...well wait for a crit if you can.  Looks like this combat will usually last 4 rounds.  You'll get a little less than one crit in that time on average.  18 bonus damage from a level 1 spell slot!

Actually, TBH, I wonder if it's better to use that spell slot on Bless.  Mmm...well it's a full action to cast Bless, so...probably not worth missing a round of damage.



Alright, so what's the durability?  Full plate, but you probably only have 14 Con if you're prioritizing Cha and Str.  18 AC.  52 HP.  You get hit roughly half the time (average damage taken 12.5).  So...you kill the enemy about as fast as the enemy kills you.

Of course, Paladins have a few "oh shit buttons" if they're losing.  Unload all your spell slots into damage (you can unload two on your attacks, and a third through your bonus action)--that opens up 6d8 from the level 2 slots, and 8d8 from the level 1 slots; something like 77 extra damage in two turns, not counting your actual weapon damage (assuming you hit, of course; don't take the -10 if you need this, obviously).  The other oh shit button is lay on hands.  You spend an action to heal 30, so that buys you...two extra turns, one of which you spent on Lay on Hands.

So mmm...options.  You can kill pretty reliably in 2 (!!!!) turns if you dump literally all your spell slots.  You can kill semi-reliably in 3 turns dumping about half your spell slots and using GWM.  You can kill in four turns on average with GWM but there's unreliablility to worry about.  (you kill in 5 turns on average if you go for the accuracy build, but that's actually too slow).

Of course, if it's just a 1v1 you want to win, there's ways to build accordingly (like...Cha doesn't do that much for this particular duel and doesn't need to be 16--but realistically Cha does a ton for you and your party, so...nah).  Tankier builds with shields and maybe Heavy Armor Master are worth considering--your big role as Paladin is to be a walking Aura for your pary, and being tankier helps with that.  Being a damage bot that charges in and hits things does not.  You can always turn on the damage as needed with smites, even if you're built for tanking.  So...fighting style...there's a solid argument for going shield based and taking something like Protection as your fighting style, as you want your party members to be hugging you for the aura, and if they're hugging you, you're not zoning in front of them the way a traditional tank would be (which is where Protection comes in handy).

Though...for calculation purposes I'll just take Defence (+1 AC) fighting style.

22 AC with a Shield and heavy armor.  ASI spent on...Resilient (CON) bringing it to 16?  (Gotta keep those buff spells up!)  Actually...eh, +2 Cha is almost certainly better than that (+1 to all your saves...and all your allies saves).  Ok, well let's do that I guess.  I guess stick with 16 str and 14 Con for the remaining two stats.

Damage is 3(str)+1+1d8 = 8.5.  Accuracy is 88%.  7.5 damage per hit.  15 damage per turn.

The enemy hits 30% of the time, which means we take an average of 7.5 damage per turn.

Actually, honestly, the 1v1ing power here is pretty similar (without using smites).  Instead of being 4 turns to kill each other, each side takes about 7 turns to kill.  Just...Paladin can break the mirror matchup much better by pulling out smites (now every smite gains you a turn instead of half a turn).  30 healing buys you like...4 turns in this matchup (3 once you remove the healing turn).  You have more turns for crit fishing, so your smites get more value.  (And all this is ignoring the fact that I used the ASI on Charisma and then...didn't really use Charisma it in my calculation. oops).

So mmm...definitely feel like tanky is the right way to build Paladin.  Not sure if I have the ideal build, but whatever.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 14, 2016, 06:59:22 AM
Hmm...ok, worth noting that most Paladin guides seem to encourage boosting strength before cha.  This would change things for the defensive build as follows:

Damage is 4(str)+1+1d8 = 9.5.  Accuracy is 91%.  8.5 damage per hit.  17 damage per turn.

(Doesn't change things too dramatically)



Anyway...Ranger

Ranger is kind-of like Fighter.  d10 hit dice.  Shields, armour.  That said, the entire class seems built to encourage you to build Dex and not Str.  Medium Armour only.  A number of spells and class features that assume some kind of bow.

Is it worth taking Sharpshooter for the +10?  Well...Ranger doesn't have any way of increasing accuracy or gaining advantage that I can immediately think of.  That said...

3(dex)+1(magic)+3(prof)+2(archery style) - 5(Sharpshooter) = +4

Hit on an 11 or higher, 50% chance to hit.

Damage is something like...

3(dex)+1(magic)+1d8(weapon)+1d6(Hunter's Mark)+10 = 22  (average damage of 11 after accuracy)


Accuracy with +2 ASI is +10 (hit on a 5 or higher, 80% chance to hit).
Damage with +2 Dex ASI is...

4(dex)+1(magic)+1d8(weapon)+1d6(Hunter's Mark) = 13 (average damage of 10.4 after accuracy)

Mmm...it's 5% less damage, but I think the +DEX ASI is better here.  More consistent.  Completely flexible to switch to a Rapier (still using the Archery fighting style, so nothing special with a Rapier).

I guess I should also look at Crossbow Master....

3(dex)+1(magic)+1d6(weapon)+1d6(Hunter's Mark) = 11 (average damage after accuracy: 8.2)

OK, so.....normal hunter with just more dex deals 21 every turn.  Crossbow Master can deal like 24.5.  But the first turn they need to Hunter's Mark so they deal 16.5.  So...they do catch up by the third turn.  Although if you lose your concentration then they go back to not having an edge so....



I'll be using Hunter for this, cause Beast Master is weird and complicated.  The choice for Hunter's Prey is interesting.  Horde Breaker is literally an extra attack.  Not a bonus action attack, literally an extra attack.  Extra attacks are amazing--so good that builds will dip 11 levels in fighter to get them.  But Horde Breaker is narrow in application, requires certain positioning by enemies, and if the enemies are standing next to each other chances are one of them will be in partial cover which you won't ignore without taking sharpshooter, and there will be fights with a single enemy where Horde Breaker just doesn't matter.

So...I'll be picking Colossus Slayer here instead.  It's relevant in every fight.  (Relevant in the 1v1, for that matter).  It functions like sneak attack, in that it's once per turn instead of once per round, so potentially you can get it twice in a turn (once on your turn, and once during an opportunity attack).

Incidentally, for Colossus Slayer damage...on the first turn you need to hit both attacks for it to trigger.  (64% chance).  So like...2.9 average damage on the first turn, and 4.3 average damage on subsequent turns (96% chance of activating on subsequent turns).

Brings the average damage per turn from like...about 21 to about 25.

So...kills in 4-5 rounds, probably 5.


Stat distribution.  Well this is awkward.  The player's handbook is telling me to take Wis as the second highest stat, and Wis just doesn't seem that great.  Like...useful for Ensnaring Strike I guess, but not a spell you can use if you have Hunter's Mark up.  Wis matters as your spellcasting mod on cure wounds, so that matters I guess.  And level 3 spells (which you don't have yet) bring AoE damage with saves.  So there's that.  Ok fine, 18 Dex, 16 Wis, 14 Con.

52 HP.  17 AC (gets hit 55% of the time).  Dies in about 3.8 turns on average.  So...falls short of winning.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 14, 2016, 08:33:00 AM
Rogue.

Well, there's a few different builds here.  One is to take the Healer feat, go Thief archetype, and then get bonus action healing (reviving).  Pretty ok healing numbers too (12.5 HP on average at this level).  For a bonus action res, this is actually probably the biggest?  (OK fine, Life Cleric can beat it by casting Healing Word out of a level 3 slot...or just using their channel divinity).  It's also a fine out of combat heal if you don't mind burning a small amount of gold (one heal per character per short rest; much better than the Bard's Song of Rest).  It's about 0.5 gold per heal, which...give that we've got characters using plate mail (1500 gold) yeah, whatever this is affordable.

We're also giving out magic weapons from table F, right?  So...Wand of Magic Missiles?  Cast Magic Missile as a bonus action 6x per day?  10.5 guaranteed damage from a bonus action.  Circlet of Blasting is Scorching ray 1x per day, which is...6d6, the attack bonus of the circlet is +5 (which...is pretty bad; 55% hit rate).  So...average damage from the Circlet is 11.55 (uh, yeah, I'd rather have the multiple use wand).

As for how to build Rogues...obviously DEX.  On the one hand, Rogues can only sneak attack with finesse weapons and ranged weapons, and they're squishy, which makes staying at safe range tempting.  On the other hand, a lot of their damage comes from sneak attack, and you can get sneak attack twice per round if you get an attack of opportunity; this means melee.  You also want to take advantage of prone enemies for guaranteed sneak attack, which ranged attackers can't do without Crossbow Master.  Crossbow Master is unattractive for other reasons (your bonus actions are amazeballs).

Alright, so looking at the basic Dex build.  +2 Dex ASI.  You have proficiency with Rapiers (nice).  4(dex)+1(magic)+3(prof) = +8 to hit.  (70% chance to hit).  No, actually, that's a lie, since you can nearly always attack from advantage by using bonus action hide.  91% chance to hit.

4(dex)+1(magic)+1d8 = 9.5 damage.  (17 per two attacks on average).  Almost guaranteed Sneak Attack in there for 28.5.

Hmm...is there an alternative?  Sharpshooter, that takes advantage of advantage to hit after a bonus action hide?  Sure, let's calculate it.  40% chance to hit; 64% by using advantage.  17.5 damage (-1 for one less dex, -1 for shortbow + 10 for Sharpshooter).  Across two attacks that averages to 22.5.  BUT there's a real chance of sneak attack not even happening now (13%).  Average damage from sneak attack down to 9.  Total damage of 31.5.  10% damage bonus for a lot of increased risk.  Ehh...I'm skeptical here: the risk-reward here is pretty sketchy, and it doesn't do anything to help you set up opportunity attacks, which with sneak attack are actually a substantial source of damage (like...+20 damage any round you actually land an opportunity attack).

On any turn where you use the Rogue's bonus action for something else (healing, magic missile) your damage from attacks drops because you aren't doing bonus action hide for advantage.  Average damage about 23 (instead of 28.5).  Still a net increase in average damage for Magic Missile (33.5), and lots of value for the healing.

Your durability is mediocre.  Although...not like you really need stats that aren't DEX and CON, so 16 CON is pretty reasonable.  Puts you at 51 HP.  16 AC gets hit 60% of the time.  Uncanny Dodge is a thing, but most of the CR6 monsters had 2-3 attacks.  Hmm...first monster I looked up had 3 attacks.  6% of the time you dodge all 3 (0% damage).  29% of the time you dodge two, get hit by one, which you halve (1/6 of the full damage).  43% of the time you get hit by two of the three attacks (3/6 of the full damage).  22% of the time you get hit by all three (5/6 of the full damage).  Overall, Uncanny dodge reduces the damage taken from 60% (thanks to AC alone) to 44%.  This means average damage taken is about 11 per round.  Get killed in 4-5 rounds (closer to 5).

So mmm...looks like Rogue has the slight edge with a +2 DEX ASI.  The Healer feat ASI would let Rogue bonus action heal themselves once, but would also lower the average damage.  (Obviously this feat is more about combat revival, and less about being a bad imitation of Fighter's Second Wind).


Assassin exists of course.  If you have a surprise round, you get to deal double damage.  (But any Rogue should win this matchup with a surprise round; Assassin just does it more comfortably).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 14, 2016, 08:53:31 AM
We're also giving out magic weapons from table F, right?  So...Wand of Magic Missiles?  Cast Magic Missile as a bonus action 6x per day?  10.5 guaranteed damage from a bonus action.  Circlet of Blasting is Scorching ray 1x per day, which is...6d6, the attack bonus of the circlet is +5 (which...is pretty bad; 55% hit rate).  So...average damage from the Circlet is 11.55 (uh, yeah, I'd rather have the multiple use wand).

I like want this to just be a whole class.  Trying to pick where you should place it.  Like I knee jerked to it could be a variation on Bard (some kind of implement focused caster).  But man who likes bards?  Tallychu , thats who.  Who wants to be like Tallychu?  Well other than healthy well balanced people but fuck that noise.

Maybe just some kind of ritual based caster (YESSSSS EXCUSES TO USE D&D RITUALS) who has no power for themselves.  They aren't a vessel for a greater power like a Warlock is, but maybe an actor or agent for something?  Or just something akin to the flavour for Arcane Tricksters but far more mundane.

By tying their combat strength completely to items you can have a pretty fun place where you have people that wield power but are not themselves inherently powerful.



I suppose thats just wizards without the Vancian magic fluff, but it is still a thing I kinda want.  I am envisioning something like restrictions on stats so you are just like a shitty fighter that can do some stuff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 14, 2016, 09:14:30 AM
Sorcerer.

up until this point, I've largely been passing over mage damage options because they're all pretty similar.  They can get Fireball.  It deals 28 AoE damage (Save for half).

Sorcerer is an exception.  I'll be using dragon sorcerer because hey, it is the "I have damage numbers" choice.  Obviously pick a bloodline that gives you fire.

First off, you get to add your charisma to your fireball damage.  +4 brings us to 32.  Next, we can spend a Sorcery point to empower the fireball, and reroll 4 dice.  Assuming these dice were about 2 each on average, this is worth about +1.5 per dice, which is +6.  38 damage fireball.  Then, if we really want one target dead, we can quicken the fireball, and then use Fire Bolt afterwards (which also gets the +4 to Cha bonus, so it does 14.5 damage).

For Fire Bolt, it's going to be the standard +8 to hit (thanks to the +1 wand and 18 Cha).  70% chance to hit.  For Fireball's dex save...mmm...ok, opening the monster manual here...actually some of these are quite low; seems there's a lot of giant monsters with bad dex saves.  Like...+2 or +1 is probably middle of the road (with a few outliers at like +7).  I'll go with +2 for dex save on monsters.  Spell save DC is 15.  They need to roll 13 or better.  (happens 40% of the time).

Average damage from the empowered fireball: 30.4.  Average damage from the Fire Bolt: 10.  So...for the low low cost of a level 3 slot and 3 sorcery points, yoou can deal about 40.5 damage per turn.

I guess 16 DEX, 14 Con?  AC will be 16.  HP will be 44.  16 AC gets hit 60% of the time.  So...dies in about 3 rounds.  BUT you're a motherfucking sorcerer and can cast Shield, and then you only get hit 35% of the time.  Also Mirror Image maybe?  Anyway, point is, while Sorcerer really isn't designed to fight solo, they could pull a Paladin and just burn all/most of their spell slots, and win anyway.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 14, 2016, 09:46:24 AM
We're also giving out magic weapons from table F, right?  So...Wand of Magic Missiles?  Cast Magic Missile as a bonus action 6x per day?  10.5 guaranteed damage from a bonus action.  Circlet of Blasting is Scorching ray 1x per day, which is...6d6, the attack bonus of the circlet is +5 (which...is pretty bad; 55% hit rate).  So...average damage from the Circlet is 11.55 (uh, yeah, I'd rather have the multiple use wand).

I like want this to just be a whole class.  Trying to pick where you should place it.  Like I knee jerked to it could be a variation on Bard (some kind of implement focused caster).  But man who likes bards?  Tallychu , thats who.  Who wants to be like Tallychu?  Well other than healthy well balanced people but fuck that noise.

Maybe just some kind of ritual based caster (YESSSSS EXCUSES TO USE D&D RITUALS) who has no power for themselves.  They aren't a vessel for a greater power like a Warlock is, but maybe an actor or agent for something?  Or just something akin to the flavour for Arcane Tricksters but far more mundane.

By tying their combat strength completely to items you can have a pretty fun place where you have people that wield power but are not themselves inherently powerful.



I suppose thats just wizards without the Vancian magic fluff, but it is still a thing I kinda want.  I am envisioning something like restrictions on stats so you are just like a shitty fighter that can do some stuff.

I mean, Thief Rogue does get there eventually when they get Use Magic Device at level 13, and then can use all of those items as bonus actions.  (Wand of Fireballs...6 Fireballs a day from bonus actions.  Wand of Polymorph...6 polymorphs a day from bonus actions).

If you want ritual casting as well you can grab the ritual caster feat, and then pick up all the rituals for whichever class you chose.  (Or just dip 3 levels of Warlock, pick Pact of the Tome, choose the Ritual Casting invocation, and then you get all rituals from every class).

But yeah, it's a little bit awkward to build with existing classes.  I think probably your best bet is to homebrew something.  Take away some Rogue features (Sneak Attack probably), and then move Use Magic Device much earlier in the level progression...like level 5 or something.  Give the equivalent of Warlock Book of Ancient Secrets at some point (Maybe level 3?  That's the earliest you can get it from Warlock, and it's tempting to dip for that).  Obviously you need some version of Cunning Action--maybe swap around the order that the extra actions show up, so at level 2 you lose the bonus action Hide in exchange for a bonus action Use Item.

Mmm...probably still needs something.  Like...it can keep the Rogue skillmonkey stuff, that's cool.  But level 1 in this class is still giving less than level 1 in Rogue.  Maybe stealing cantrips from other classes, but you need to have a book on hand to use them?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 14, 2016, 10:30:18 AM
I think you just flat out need to make magic items more effective for them (or some way to make them cheap/disposables?).

I would be okay with them not being much at low level.  The archetype is the kind of thing you want to fudge at low level.  What's the equivalent of a super powerful magic item that the evil Vizier uses to force the issue?  Like Hirelings or something?  Political power?  Just straight up starting with a +1 short sword or something to get their To Hit and Damage slightly ahead of the curve?

I am sure you could bake in some plot power with Ritual castings being your fudge material.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 14, 2016, 04:19:33 PM
Well, they are fundamentally fairly mundane, so they can get the kind of stuff other mundane characters get.

Proficiency with three tools of their choice.

Proficiency with martial weapons and shields.  (They are good with their hands, and figuring out other people's stuff)

d10 hit dice

(thematically, I think only light armour.  This is someone who pulls out a dozen wands from their pockets....having trouble imagining them in full plate).

Extra ASIs (Fighter gets these obviously, but Rogue also has one extra one at level 10.  They're a good way to incentivize people to stick with the class after we already made them able to use every item during a bonus action)

Extra attacks (Obviously one extra attack at 5; maybe more...although need to be careful not to step on fighters)

Extra item use (Letting you replace one of your weapon attacks from an attack action with an item use)

Extra actions (Well...Fighters get action surge, Thief Rogues get two turns, how about letting this class replace both attacks with use device?  This gives potentially three use devices in one turn with the bonus action, although the third one can't be a spell due to bonus action spell rules; obviously a high level ability, of course--maybe level 17, maybe this is the level 11 power spike)

They use items better (most items are +5 to hit, or DC 15 for their save.  This doesn't scale well; how about letting this class add their Int and their proficiency bonus?)

They blast better (Taking a page out of sorcerer, and evoker wizard books...could let them add their int mod to one damage roll per spell cast.  This is a level 6 ability on sorc--one element only, and level 10 on wizard--all elements)

Maximize (Well...if we're going to let them take a double item use action, we can let them take a maximize action, where they only use one device in their action, but max the damage roll, or for stuff that doesn't have a damage roll but does have a saving throw, make the save have disadvantage.  Should be noted that most Maximize class features are limited use; maybe int times per day?)

Just...metamagic in general (Look at the sorcerer metamagic stuff--silent spell, extend spell; yeah, allow these at various levels, but only with use item).

Mmm...maybe not all of these abilities, but some combination of them, and space them out by levels, obviously.  Don't be afraid to look at rogue, bard (and knowledge cleric) too for ideas on skillmonkey stuff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 17, 2016, 07:24:34 AM
Warlock

Is it worthwhile for a Warlock to Fireball in a 1v1?  Unclear.  28 damage is a thing, sure (save for half), but Hex into Eldritch Blast deals...26 (has to get through AC).  There's also this mild inconvenience that if you start next to a monster, you Eldritch Blast with disadvantage (unless you take Crossbow Master!)

Eldritch Blast to hit 4(cha)+1(magic)+3(prof) = +8.  Hit on a 7 or better, 70% chance to hit.

Average Eldritch Blast Damage: 13.3
Average Eldritch Blast Damage with hex: 18.2

Average Fireball damage (assuming 2 dex save, vs DC15, full damage 60% of the time): 22.4

That said, there's adaptations the Warlock can make to the 1v1.  Darkness/Devil's Sight might be dubious when you are a full party and mess up your party members, but it's a solid plan in a 1v1.  If the enemy monster is melee, Armor of Agathys is pretty solid--given that I've been assuming the monster multiattacks, one casting of AoA gives you 15 temp HP and deals about 30 damage to the monster (but only if the monster hits you with melee).

That said...is that enough?  Let's say the temp HP absorbs basically everything for two turns, is that enough?  If you're attacking with disadvantage due to melee, and no hex due to spending both spell slots...potentially not, actually.

Though, regardless, Warlock is pretty cool, but 2 spell slots is rough for a 1v1.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 17, 2016, 08:00:00 AM
Warlock stuff: Warlock's DC is 16, because Rod of the Pact Keeper is great.

One-on-one Warlock might want to consider Hellish Rebuke (reaction 22, dex save half, so 79% of a Fireball but you don't lose your action so you still get to Eldritch Blast that turn). Also remember that Eldritch Blast is two beams and that if the first one pushes away, the second won't have disadvantage any more (at least... probably? I could see a DM ruling that one differently). There are probably some kiting arguments with pushing and running, too (which given that we're making the ridiculously unfair assumption of warlock vs. solo enemies I'm inclined to give credit to).


Rogue stuff: If we're invoking 1v1, I'm not sure how on earth rogue is successfully hiding then hitting something with a melee weapon, since you can't hide from something which can see you (even if you have cover) and moving breaks your hide check. Even a ranged weapon would require some convenient hiding spots which you couldn't just be flushed out of, and of course will randomly fail if the monster's perception check beats your stealth check. I mean "Rogue usually can get sneak attack" is true in-game but... not so much 1v1! I actually threw a bunch of 1v1's at my party and certainly the rogue had more trouble than most of the rest (barbarian, bard, monk, warlock).

Also where are you getting bonus action magic missiles from? Fast Hands explicitly doesn't work with magic items. Am I missing something?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 17, 2016, 09:41:30 AM
Wizard.

So yeah, Warlocks' cantrip numbers?  Wizard will be about half of that.

Listing out Wizard numbers isn't going to mean a whole lot--basic 28 damage fireball, nothing special about it.  It's more about having the greater toolbox.

Like...I've been assuming an enemy with a multiattack that deals 25 damage (so like...7,7,8 for attacks).  A Divination Wizard can use the Slow spell, and then use Divination Portent to make sure it actually hits; that lowers the enemy damage down to one attack for 8.  Now mix in Mirror Image--the enemy can now only pop one Mirror Image per turn.  Slow prevents opportunity attacks, so no concern about using ranged attacks.  Although...damn, Slow has another saving throw at the end of the enemy's turn; that's not going to be reliable, then.

So like...even if Wizard lands a nasty status like Slow, can they kill before it wears off?  Fireball's average is 22.4.  On spells with attack rolls, your familiar can use the help action to give you advantage on one roll.  Scorching Ray's damage with this is 16.2.  Chromatic Orb with this narrowly outdamages Magic Missile for 11.8.  The cantrip deals 10.

These numbers are pretty low, though.  Like...Two Fireballs and two scorching rays gets you to 77.  You probably want to reserve level 1 spell slots for shield and mage armour, which means four cantrips to get you the rest of the way to 107.  Need to spend 8 turns dealing damage to actually bring this thing down.

Durability in a vaccum: 38 HP.  16 AC assuming mage armour (gets hit on a roll of 9 or better, 60% chance to get hit).  Shield is available (drops hit chance to 35%).  Mirror Images have 13 AC, get hit 75% of the time.  The Mirror image spell stops four attacks on average (but since we've been assuming that enemies have three multiattacks, that's not too great here).  So...without Mirror Image, and just leaning on Shield, we're looking at 8.75 average damage from the enemy (die in 4-5 turns).

Alright, so different plan...Blur?  Enemies have disadvantage attacking you.  This drops it to a 36% chance you get hit without shield, and a 12% chance you get hit with shield (and a 24% chance that you need to cast shield at all).  But the enemy is still multiattack--it actually has a 33% chance to hit even through shield (and on a hit, decent chance to break your concentration on Blur).  Also 57% chance you need to pop Shield every round isn't great.

Blink is...not bad; non-concentration, basically doubles your durability in a 1v1.  Gets you out of melee range so that you can make your range attacks.  That ups the initially reported durability to about 9 turns.  9 turns is almost enough on its own, although I worry that we will run out of shield spells.

So...Blink into Blur?  Now we need to use Shield only about once every 4 turns on average.  8 turns till we run out of Shield.  This is enough time to get our damage done.

(Of course some of the schools can help with this.  Abjuration wizard adds a 16 HP extra, more like 22 HP extra, and when the ward takes damage it doesn't break concentration.  Transmutation can give you proficiency in con saving throws.  The other PHB schools don't help much, not really built for duelling...although apparently one of the newer books has bladesinger who can add int to AC and concentration checks, so lolol that sounds silly and obviously makes this fairly trivial).

But mmm...yeah, Wizards.  They're supposed to use good status effects, and tilt the fight into the party's favour.  They're not really built for actually dealing single-target damage that reduces an enemy to 0 HP.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 17, 2016, 10:12:57 AM
Rogue stuff: If we're invoking 1v1, I'm not sure how on earth rogue is successfully hiding then hitting something with a melee weapon, since you can't hide from something which can see you (even if you have cover) and moving breaks your hide check. Even a ranged weapon would require some convenient hiding spots which you couldn't just be flushed out of, and of course will randomly fail if the monster's perception check beats your stealth check. I mean "Rogue usually can get sneak attack" is true in-game but... not so much 1v1! I actually threw a bunch of 1v1's at my party and certainly the rogue had more trouble than most of the rest (barbarian, bard, monk, warlock).

Oh, that's true.  I mean, run away and hide and use a ranged attack is still an option, but you eat an opportunity attack to pull that off.

Quote
Also where are you getting bonus action magic missiles from? Fast Hands explicitly doesn't work with magic items. Am I missing something?

It...doesn't?  The Player's Handbook doesn't say anything about this...?

Oh, apparently the DMG specifies that Fast Hands doesn't work, because it's "Activating an Item" not "Using an Item".  OK.

I guess this is part of the whole "player's handbook pretends magic items don't exist."  (I mean, except for the part where later on the same page they describe "Use Magic Device" and mention using magic items, without mentioning that they don't work with Fast Hands).

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Warlock stuff: Warlock's DC is 16, because Rod of the Pact Keeper is great.

Ah, right, Fireball deals 23.1 instead of 22.4.

Quote
One-on-one Warlock might want to consider Hellish Rebuke (reaction 22, dex save half, so 79% of a Fireball but you don't lose your action so you still get to Eldritch Blast that turn). Also remember that Eldritch Blast is two beams and that if the first one pushes away, the second won't have disadvantage any more (at least... probably? I could see a DM ruling that one differently). There are probably some kiting arguments with pushing and running, too (which given that we're making the ridiculously unfair assumption of warlock vs. solo enemies I'm inclined to give credit to).

I definitely agree with the shove working.  But...depends what combination of invocations you take.  Armor of Shadows for 16 AC is a thought.  Devil's Sight is required if you plan on using Darkness.  A lot of Warlocks would have Book of Ancient Secrets for out of combat utility at this point.  More to the point, though, even with the shove working...it's just not a good situation.  51% of the time the first hit will miss, and you won't shove.  It increases your damage a little (average damage across both beams is 9.3 without the shove, 10.3  with the shove).  But you still would really rather not be stuck attacking from disadvantage.

As far as kiting goes...mmm...really monster dependent there; a lot of these CR6 monsters have really good mobility (like...80 flyspeed).  Some don't though, fair.

Hellish Rebuke...yeah, fair.  Average damage 18.  Average damage for the round is that plus EB (so like...31).  Certainly a good option if you're not facing the kind of enemy that would trigger Armor of Agathys multiple times.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 17, 2016, 03:40:58 PM
For what it's worth I didn't assume "Use an object" would include activating a magic item because of the way those are described in the DMG but I agree that the PHB itself leaves it ambiguous as hell.

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(But 5e PHB isn't always that well-written...)

I admittedly had to go fishing to prove my kneejerk.


Quote
More to the point, though, even with the shove working...it's just not a good situation.  51% of the time the first hit will miss, and you won't shove.  It increases your damage a little (average damage across both beams is 9.3 without the shove, 10.3  with the shove).  But you still would really rather not be stuck attacking from disadvantage.

Yeah this is certainly true. (Also, to tie into my previous argument, it's unreliable and unreliable is bad.) Could even be worth taking an attack of opportunity? Some monsters have pretty weak ones. But as you say, will be a bad situation regardless.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Magetastica on June 17, 2016, 05:01:55 PM
For the Warlock situation, if they use the Darkness/Devil's Sight combo, they no longer have to worry about disadvantage on their Eldritch Blasts, as they can take a 5-foot step away from the enemy monster and then have advantage against them, can't they? So while it would cost an action to activate, it would significantly increase their durability and flip their disadvantage to advantage on EB.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2016, 01:59:17 PM
For the Warlock situation, if they use the Darkness/Devil's Sight combo, they no longer have to worry about disadvantage on their Eldritch Blasts, as they can take a 5-foot step away from the enemy monster and then have advantage against them, can't they? So while it would cost an action to activate, it would significantly increase their durability and flip their disadvantage to advantage on EB.

Definitely, yeah, all of those things are true.  And taking an action to activate Darkness isn't the worst (since the turn you activate Darkness it's going to be hard to figure out where you are--it's the later turns when you can use the direction the Eldritch Blasts come from to largely figure out the warlock's location and attempt to hit them through disadvantage).

But there's still a two spell limitation, and Darkness is also concentration.  With disadvantage...the enemy has either a 42% chance to hit, or a 36% chance to hit (depending on whether or not you took the Armor of Shadows invocation).  And given that I've been assuming a monster with a multiattack action (3 hits)--you're looking at slightly more than one concentration check per round on average (DC 10).  With a Con of 2, you have to roll 8 or better, (65% success rate).  I would say your concentration lasts for about 2.6 rounds on average once you start Eldritch Blasting.  (Taking an average of 9 damage per turn with the higher AC--so even if you keep your concentration for 3 turns, you've eaten 27 damage on average, which is more than half your health).

You deal about 17.3 damage with an Eldritch Blast attacking with advantage.  (No hex obviously, concentrating on Darkness).  2.6 rounds of this is 45 damage.  Then you cast darkness again, move somewhere unpredictable so that you don't get beat on in your first action after casting darkness, and repeat the process again.  5.2 average rounds of Eldritch Blast before you get knocked out of the second darkness before you lose your concentration, during which you deal 89.9 damage, and take 45 damage (your HP is...45).

And note that you don't have a spare invocation to take Repelling Blast in this situation (Armor of Shadows and Devil's Sight are what I assumed).  It won't matter until you lose concentration, of course, because Darkness turns off the monster's reaction.  But after you lose concentration it's going to suck.

So...yeah, darkness+devil's sight is an option.  It's a strong combo (advantage+disadvantage, and the enemy can't cast spells that require line of sight and can't use attacks of opportunity.  Strong effect, definitely better than the Wizard spell Blur which I was using in the Wizard analysis, for instance).  But unless your DM is like "you cast darkness?  I guess the enemy wanders around confused and never figures out where you are even though you're attacking them" it's not unbeatable.  (And if the DM does interpret darkness as being unbeatable, then they probably don't allow it at their table, or will bring ways to negate the darkness).

So...yeah, strong spell, but we're still working with 2 spell slots, and I'm not sure it's strong enough.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2016, 07:27:47 PM
So...I'm going to take a stab at actually designing the "normal person with no magical ability that just uses trinkets and stuff" that Grefter was talking about.  I'm trying to follow the design and balance of other classes--for instance, I've noticed in the book that if a class has an ASI, that will usually be literally the only thing they gain on that level.  Exceptions seem to be made for minor stuff like cantrips known.  For some reason, Cleric is a big exception to this, gaining a fairly significant domain feature on 8, but nevermind that.

This is also going to be a weird class to balance, because there's no telling if your DM will actually give you magic items that cast magic, especially if they just roll on a loot table.  So...it's going to need goodies so that you feel reasonably valuable even if those class abilities aren't active.

Tinkerer

You are a master with your hands, and a clever problem solver.  If there is a tool that exists, there's a good chance you can figure it out.  You are trying to crack magic as well, and are certain there must be a logical scientific explanation for it all, but for the moment it baffles you.

Hit Dice 1d10 per Tinkerer level.

Proficiencies
Armor: Light Armor and Shields
Weapons: All simple and martial weapons
Tools: Choose any three
Saving Throws: Dexterity and Intelligence
Skills: Choose any two


1st level


Jack of all Trades
You can add half your proficiency bonus (rounded down) to all skill checks that don't already use your proficiency bonus.

Nimble Hands
You can use your bonus action to take the Help action, do the search action with intelligence (Investigation) or wisdom (Perception), take the Use an Object action, Make a dexterity (sleight of hand) check, Make a wisdom (Medicine) check to stabilize a creature, or make a wisdom (Survival) check to identify natural hazards like quicksand.
(Note: no the Use an Object action does not let you activate a magical device).

Clever device usage
Instead of using the DC of a magic item, you may use your Tinkerer spell save DC (8+INT+prof mod).


2nd level


Notebook of Magic
Magic still defies scientific explanation for you, but you are taking notes and have begun to make a little headway.  Choose a cantrip from any class to copy into your notebook.  You can cast this cantrip, but only if you are holding your notebook in your hand and only if you are currently able to read it.  These count as tinkerer spells for you and use your spell save DC (8+Int+prof mod).  You may copy an additional cantrip into your notebook at 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 16th, and 19th level.

Use Magic Device
You have figured out enough about the working of magic that you can improvise the use of devices that were not built for you; you ignore all class and race descriptions on items.

Expertise
Choose two skill checks or tools to get double proficiency with.


3rd level

Extendable Arms
You can spend 50gp and one long rest to craft extendable arms.  Using a bonus action, you can extend or contract the arms.  While your arms are extended, your reach is increased by +5, but if you try to attack a creature within 5 feet of you, you attack with disadvantage.  While your arms are contracted, you attack as normal.  Extendable Arms can only be used by Tinkerers of 2nd level or higher, or characters with the Use Magic Device class skill.

Ritual Casting
You can now copy ritual spells from any class into your notebook of magic, and you can cast them only as rituals, and only if you have your notebook of magic.  The cost of copying spells into this book follows the Wizard rules.  You can only copy a ritual spell into your notebook if it has the (ritual) tag, and the spell level is no greater than half your Tinkerer level (rounded up).  Additionally, you may add one level 1 ritual for free when you gain this feature.

Item Metamagic (Subtle Spell)
Your tinkering with magic items has given you a skillful amount of control over the spell that comes out.  You can use magic items as if you used the Subtle Spell metamagic.  You may only use one metamagic when you activate an item.


4th level


ASI


5th level


Extra Attack
Blah blah blah hit things.

Item Metamagic (Careful Spell)
Your expertise with magic items has allowed you to sculpt the spells they produce to reduce harm to your allies.

Bonus proficiencies
You gain proficiency with 2 more skill checks and one tool check of your choice.


6th level


ASI


7th level


Expertise
Choose two more skills or tools to add double your proficiency.

Battlemagic
You've mastered weaving magic and weaponry together.  When you cast a spell or use an item to cast a spell, you can use your bonus action to make one weapon attack.

Item Metamagic (Empowered Spell)
When you roll damage for a spell, if you use this metamagic you can reroll a number of damage dice up to your intelligence modifier.
NOTE: unlike the sorcerer version of this metamagic, you can not combine this with other metamagic.

Spring Mounted Pillow
You can spend a long rest and 50gp to craft a spring mounted pillow.  While equipped, when an attacker you can see hits you with an attack, you can use your reaction to press a button extending the pillow to halve that damage.  This can only be equipped by Tinkerers of 2nd level or higher, or by characters with the Use Magic Device class feature.  If someone -without- proficiency equips this, they can successfully press the button to block one attack, but they won't get the pillow back into its compartment, causing them to make attack rolls, dexterity based skill checks, and concentration checks with disadvantage.


8th level


ASI


9th level


Helicopter Hat
You can spend 100 gp and a long rest crafting a device that is a hat, with a helicopter that can sprout from inside of it.  It allows you to at will cast Levitate on yourself.  If the hat is removed from your person, the effects of the spell end.  Operating this Helicopter Hat is so complex that only a Tinkerer of 2nd level or greater, or someone with Use Magic Device can use it.

Item Metamagic (Extend Spell)
You can extend the duration of a spell cast by an item to twice its normal length.



10th level


Spell Empowerment
When you use a damage or healing spell (through an item or through innate spellcasting ability) you can add your Int modifier to one damage roll, or healing roll of the spell.

Jack of Your Own Trades
You now add an extra half your proficiency bonus (rounded down) to all skill checks, not just the ones with which you lacked proficiency.  (So untrained -> 1/2 prof.  Proficiency -> 3/2 prof.  Expertise -> 5/2 prof).


11th level


Item Metamagic (Quickened Spell)
You can cast spells from your items as a bonus action when you use this metamagic.  Note that normal spellcasting rules apply (you can't cast a bonus action spell and a non-cantrip in the same turn).

Ze Goggles
You are able to spend 100 gp and a long rest to manufacture goggles that allow you to see in magical and nonmagical darkness as if it is bright light, see invisible creatures, and see through illusions, but limits your vision to 30 feet while you are wearing them (you are blind beyond this distance until you remove the goggles).  These goggles also have the side-effect of making your eyes appear twice their normal size.  Operating these goggles is so complex that only a Tinkerer of 2nd level or greater, or someone with Use Magic Device can use them.


12th level


ASI


13th level


Elusive
You are so adept on your feet that attackers rarely get the upper hand on you.  No attack against you has advantage while you aren't incapacitated.

Metamagic (Heightened Spell)
When you make a spell that requires a saving throw, you can cause one target of the spell to make their saving throw with disadvantage.


14th level


ASI


15th level


Item Metamagic (Twin Spell)
When you use an item to cast a spell that doesn't have a range of self, and is capable of targeting only one target, you can choose a second target.

Evasion
When you are subjected to an effect that lets you make a dexterity saving throw for half damage, you instead take no damage on a successful save, and half damage on an unsuccessful save.


16th level


ASI


17th level


Item Metamagic (Distant Spell)
You can double the range of spells you cast using items.  If the spell has a range of touch, it now has a range of 30 feet.

Extra Attack (2)
You can now make three attacks, just like a fighter.


18th level


Superior Helicopter Hat control
You have become so adept with your helicopter hat that you gain the following benefits while using it.  You can replicate the effects of the Fly spell on yourself, and staying airborne no longer requires your concentration.


19th level


ASI


20th level


EUREKA, Magic makes sense
Your SCIENCE is finally starting to make a breakthrough in understanding magic.  Add six 1st level Wizard spells into your notebook of magic.  You can cast them without using spell slots as long as you are holding your notebook of magic, and as long as you are able to read your notebook.  You can copy 1st level Wizard into your notebook using the normal Wizard rules for transcribing magic.
(EDITED)(Commentary: this capstone is pretty broken.  Infinite out of combat healing.  Spam Bless as you walk around.  Use the Shield spell in-combat if you have a hand free to hold your notebook--basically turns your notebook into a +3 shield.  But it's a capstone, and most of the benefits are out of combat, so whatever).



Mmm...ok, so balance concerns (other than yes the capstone is busted)--does this crowd out Rogue?  I don't think so--Rogue gets most of the same abilities, a bunch of extra ones I threw out due to ASIs on those levels, and Sneak Attack, and honestly Cunning Action is probably better than the bonus action options I listed here (which is why I put that as a level 1 ability).  The one ability Rogue doesn't get is advantage on initiative (I took that from Barbarian) and Jack of all Trades (taken from Bard).  Does this crowd out Fighter?  Maybe?  Well...ok I mean...no medium or heavy armor, no fighting style, no action surge till level 18, no indomitable.  No archetype bonuses like superiority dice.  TBH fighters should deal more damage at basically every level.  But Tinkerer gets the same ASIs combined with some Rogue goodies like Evasion and Uncanny Dodge and skillmonkeying.  Maybe I should remove one of the ASIs?  (Fighter gets 3 extra ASIs, Rogue gets 1 extra, maybe Tinkerer should only get 2 extra?  Remove the ASI at...level 10?  Mmm...maybe; "dip 11 levels of fighter for a 3rd attack" is a thing--Tinkerer does force you to dip to level 13 for that attack, but maybe it should also give you one less ASI for your trouble?  Although...honestly, the kind of multiclass that takes 11 levels of fighter to optimize weapon damage probably wants a fighting style, and probably wants action surge, and might very well want heavy armor.  So...maybe there's no issue?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 18, 2016, 07:36:33 PM
Fighter only gets two ASIs (at 6 and 14; they don't get one at 10). So Tinkerer certainly shouldn't have 3 (and even 2 is kinda pushing it, that feels like it's stealing fighter's "thing" for all that it's still balanced so hey go for it if you feel it fits).

I would shy away from literal infinite healing, as well. While it won't be broken in some campaigns, it completely ruins some others, and it feels like something D&D has gone to pains to avoid.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2016, 07:53:14 PM
Fighter only gets two ASIs (at 6 and 14; they don't get one at 10). So Tinkerer certainly shouldn't have 3 (and even 2 is kinda pushing it, that feels like it's stealing fighter's "thing" for all that it's still balanced so hey go for it if you feel it fits).

I would shy away from literal infinite healing, as well. While it won't be broken in some campaigns, it completely ruins some others, and it feels like something D&D has gone to pains to avoid.

Oh, huh, yeah, ok I thought Fighter had three.  Will adjust.

Avoiding the "stealing things" feeling is going to be tricky, when I literally just took aspects of a few classes and mixed and matched.

The infinite healing can be avoided by limiting this to Wizard, Sorcerer, or Warlock level 1 spells.  (Or probably just Wizard spells, which...the game is already balanced to let those be cast for free due to the level 17 Wizard ability).

OK, editing.  Will move the +Int ability from level 11 to level 10 ability, and have it apply to all magic (so applies to your cantrips, or lets you multiclass, and doesn't feel weird that it's your only ability at that level).  Also, this ability really didn't need to be on the same level as a metamagic.


EDIT2: shuffling around some metamagic--the previous move had Empower Spell metamagic as 9th level, when the +int is 10th level; feels weird that those would be right next to each other; moving Empower Spell earlier.


EDIT3: swapped Evasion and Battle Magic (7->15 and 15->7).  Cause my god, Evasion is good.  And Eh, Battle Magic isn't that good on a class that already has features around bonus actions.


EDIT4: Changed the level 11 talent from Rogue's "Reliable Talent" to an actually new skill (an upgrade to Jack of All Trades).  Probably a downgrade TBH, but Reliable Talent is how Rogues stand out in the skill monkey business, so I wanted to keep it unique to Rogue.


EDIT5: Removed Blindsense, added "Ze Goggles" and moved it to level 11.  Just a more thematic ability.

EDIT6: Removed the Barbarian advantage on initiative skill.  Added Helicopter Hat (which is mostly just a re-skinned Warlock Invocation Ascendant Step).  Reason for removing the Barbarian Skill is that...you have extra ASIs, might as well not take away stuff like the Alert feat from the list of interesting feats you might want.  Reason for adding Helicopter Hat is that it's cool.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on June 19, 2016, 01:55:27 AM
I approve of all of this.  Especially edit 6.

It is slightly different flavours than I envisioned hut it is still deliciously flavourful.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 19, 2016, 03:19:57 AM
I approve of all of this.  Especially edit 6.

It is slightly different flavours than I envisioned hut it is still deliciously flavourful.

Not going to lie, after writing edit 6, I watched an episode of inspector gadget to see if I could come up with other appropriate re-skins.  (Mage Hand could be re-skinned to be an extending arm.  Some sort of spider climb effect could be re-skinned to be suction cups--although in functionality this competes with levitate).

On the extending limb idea, One thought that might be worth pursuing is a contraption where you can use a bonus action to extend or contract your arms.  When they are extended, you add +5 to your reach, but if you try to attack a target within 5 feet of you, you attack with disadvantage.  When they contract, you go back to normal (no reach, but no disadvantage on nearby targets).  In fact, I'll probably edit that in somewhere.



Current thoughts--I think some abilities could move around.  I think this class might be a little bit weak early.  There's a reason to pick them over Fighters (Skillmonkey).  But in comparison to Rogue...Rogues get most of the same skillmonkey stuff, but also get Evasion at level 7, get sneak attack, get the better Cunning Action.  What Rogues lose early on is...shields, martial weapons, d10 hit dice, flavour.  So...a small amount of durability, most of which could be fixed by a 1 level dip.  By comparison, I think there's a lot of high power abilities in the level15-18 range now (evasion, quicken metamagic, action surge).

EDIT: Added Extendable Arms at 3rd level.  Then 3rd level was crowded, so I moved extra proficiencies to 5th level.  Then 5th level was crowded so I moved Uncanny Dodge to 7th level.

EDIT2: Removed the class limitation on Battlemagic.  If you want to dip 7 levels of Tinkerer to get a bonus action attack on spellcasting before going into your full caster, yeah, ok you do that.

EDIT3: put Quickened Spell on level 11, and moved Extra Attack(2) to level 17.  (And shuffled around distant spell to 17 and elusive to 13 to keep the same number of abilities).  The idea being to have more of a gradual curve--at level 11 you can get a quickened spell and two attacks.  At level 17 you can get a quickened spell and three attacks.

EDIT4: moved "clever device usage" from level 3 to level 1--it's a pretty minor ability that has to appear somewhere, and level 3 had 4 text blocks, while level 1 had 2 text blocks.

EDIT5: Re-skinned Uncanny dodge as Spring Mounted Pillow.

EDIT6: removed Action Surge on level 18.  Replaced it with Superior Helicopter Hat Control.

EDIT7: Moved Jack of your own Trades to level 10 (from 11) as there was currently only one level 10 ability.

EDIT8: Added a description of what happens when someone without UMD tries to use Spring Mounted Pillow.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 19, 2016, 05:48:16 AM
OK, I guess I should probably analyze what this capstone actually does.

1st level Wizard spells

Alarm (ritual--already had it)
Burning Hands (worse than cantrips)
Charm Person (Slightly better Friends cantrip)
Chromatic Orb (worse than cantrips)
Colour Spray (lol, 33 HP?)
Comprehend Languages (ritual--already had it)
Detect Magic (ritual--already had it)
Disguise Self (you're probably proficient with the disguise kit but ok)
Expeditious Retreat (Well...it's one part of Rogue's Cunning Action; concentration tho--pretty niche)
False Life (Gain 8 temporary hitpoints between fights.  Self only.  OK sure, not complaining).
Feather Fall (Narrow but handy for an ally who doesn't have a helicopter hat.  Castable through reaction).
Find Familiar (ritual--already had it)
Fog Cloud (Narrow, but has utility--use on enemy casters or archers so they can't get line of sight; concentration tho)
Grease (Oh, snap, this doesn't use concentration.  This is not bad.  Might not be worth your action in combat by level 20, though?  Actually, probably is still worthwhile if you can choke up a door while knocking a couple people down.  So...it's niche I guess)
Illusory Script (ritual--already had it)
Jump (it's not concentration, so you can keep your whole team with Jump ready to go; 1 minute duration, though--gotta spam it.  Or just cast it when you need it, which probably isn't that often).
***Longstrider*** (1 hour duration; +10ft movement speed to your whole party.  So...basically +10 movement to your whole party.  Very very good)
Mage Armour (It's a nice spell, but pretty minor application to a level 20 character who can probably get +1 leather armor--you can cast it on people who don't have light armor, so save the Wizard or Wild Magic Sorcerer a level 1 spell slot and let them prepare a different spell, or maybe cast it on a Druid who plans to be in Wild Shape).
Magic Missile (Never misses, 3 concentration checks for enemies--there are niche moments when you use this over a cantrip)
Protection from Evil and Good (Niche, and takes concentration, but has enough benefits that it might be worth it when the niche comes up)
Ray of Sickness (no, use cantrips)
***Shield*** (Obviously fantastic; mitigated a bit by the notebook taking up a hand slot requirement,  so it's not as good as when Wizard gets it for free).
Silent Image (upgrade to the Minor Illusion cantrip)
Sleep (affects 22 HP worth of enemies?  Nope)
***Tasha's Hideous Laughter*** (Uh, yeah, at will Tasha's Hideous Laughter doesn't sound bad at all)
Tenser's Floating Disk (ritual--already had it)
Thunder Wave (Maybe for the AoE shove?)
***Unseen Servant*** (They last an hour without concentration.  You can summon like...100 of these.  Each one has a strength of 2, which means a carrying capacity of 30 lbs, and an ability to push 60 lbs.  I mean, they have 1 HP and can't attack, so this doesn't really do anything in-combat.  But that's a lot of out-of-combat shenanigans).
Witch bolt (no, use cantrips)

Mmm...yeah, it's nice.  With the Shield spell needing a hand to hold the book, it doesn't do any one spell ridiculously well, but there's still overall a decent amount of power here, and a lot of utility.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 26, 2016, 06:26:10 PM
Well um...I made some pretty big mistakes in my Rogue calculations.

First, I assumed that with a range weapon you would keep advantage through all the shots if you hid (only the first shot unless you take the Skulker feat).

But second, and more important, I assumed that Rogue got the Extra Attack class feature.  They.......don't.

(And third I just had some straight up miscalculations, like not multiplying by the accuracy, oops; I mean 91% accuracy, but it still matters).



Well...spoiler alert, Rogues are going to suck.

+8 to hit (+4 (dex), +1 (magic), +3 (prof)), so 70% chance to hit.  Advantage turns this into 91% chance to hit.

I should probably also figure out the probability of bonus action hide working.  Perceptions in the monster manual at CR6...I see passive perceptions ranging from 10 to 19 (with probably 16 being the most common).  Proficiency with Perception is very common in the monster manual; a few enemies also seem to have Expertise with perception.  I'll split the difference and say the passive perception we're trying to sneak past is 15.  Rogue will have expertise in stealth, so +10, needs to roll 6 or higher as we need to get above 15 not match 15 (stealth is a contested check, so ties mean that the previous result keeps holding--the previous result is the enemy seeing the rogue).  So...75% chance to stealth.

(I'll assume that Rogue has an a dummy ally that can stand next to an enemy in the stealth failure check--like a familiar or something; not a true 1v1, but probably a bit closer to a normal battle situation.  I will however assume that they're using a ranged weapon as that's the only real way they can use bonus action hide every turn.  And when they do fail their stealth check, I'll give them the -2 partial cover accuracy penalty for firing into melee without sharpshooter).

Well...since they only have one attack, might as well use a light crossbow for 1d8 damage.

Accuracy: 4(dex)+1(magic)+3(prof) = +8, need to roll 7 or better to hit AC 15 (70% chance, 91% chance with advantage, 60% if we need to shoot into melee).  Since I'm allowing sneak attack either way, we can just do .91*.75+.6*.25 = 0.832 = 83.2% chance to hit.

Damage is 4(dex)+1(magic)+1d8+3d6 = 20.  (After accuracy: 16.6 average damage per round).


16.6 is...pretty bad.  Like...roughly half of what the good damage dealers are dealing at this level.  (Going sharpshooter you can get 16.7 average at the expense of being considerably less reliable.  Oh, and it costs you AC as well because you are a Rogue and don't have medium armour.  Yeah...no, Sharpshooter's not good here.  But at least it makes you more accurate when you need to fire into melee...which is more often now due to failing to hide more often).

So...yeah, Rogues, pretty trashy actually.  If you go melee and aim for opportunity attacks, and use nearby allies to set up sneak attack....Well for starters you're looking at a 70% hit rate (no penalty for attacking into melee).  So like...14 average damage per attack action that gets sneak attack.  If you can do that a second time with a reaction, now it's 28 average damage.  So...a front-liner Rogue who manages to get an attack of opportunity with sneak attack every round keeps up to other classes (provided those classes don't use an AoO themselves).  But other than that...ew.  Maybe just a bad level for Rogue cause all the other classes just got an extra attack.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 26, 2016, 06:40:30 PM
Yeah the "right after Extra Attack and L3 spells" is a bad part of the game for Rogue offensively.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 27, 2016, 12:08:03 AM
Yeah the "right after Extra Attack and L3 spells" is a bad part of the game for Rogue offensively.

I was under the impression that they were supposed to be kind-of glass cannons, though.

Like...level 6 if they get sneak attack but don't have advantage (e.g. by attacking someone who's in melee with an ally) then they deal...roughly Eldritch Blast damage.  (70% to hit.  19 if it does hit.  By Comparison, Eldritch Blast is...70% to hit, 19 if it does hit).  Actually no, I didn't add +1 damage for magic in my last post--let me edit that in.  Ok, so it's 20 to 19 damage.

By comparison at level 20 with +3 magic weapons/+3 rod of the pact keeper against...let's say 20AC...prof bonus is +6, magic bonus is +3, stat bonus is +5, so +14 to hit.  Need to roll 6 or better; 75% chance to hit (for both).

Rogue deals 10d6(sneak)+1d8(rapier or light crossbow)+5(dex)+3(magic) = 47.5  (with 75% to hit so 35.6)
Warlock deals 4*(5+5.5) = 42 (with 75% hit, so 31.5)

Of course, that's without Hex; with Hex Warlock deals like...56 (with 75% hit, so 42.0).


Level 12 or so is going to be similar.  Warlock will have 3 blasts by this point, so 31.5.  Rogue is looking at 6d6+1d8(rapier or light crossbow)+5(dex)+2(magic) = 32.5.  Same accuracy, so I'll skip calculating that part.  Again, slightly better for the Rogue, but slightly worse if the Warlock uses Hex.


I mean, not that Eldritch Blast is bad, and I'm not factoring in advantage which Rogue is pretty good at getting, and Warlock needs to spend spell slots to get.  But these aren't exactly glass cannon numbers.  (35.6?  there were moderately sustainable damage turns slightly below that number at level 6, let alone level 20).


EDIT: to be clear, Rogue is a fine multiclass.  Take extra attacks and martial weapons and fighting style from any other class; mix in some sneak attacks.  Now you're just dealing extra damage.  It's just weird that single-classed Rogue is kinda mediocre.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 27, 2016, 12:26:02 AM
Hm. Rogue really likes getting second attacks (two weapon fighting, Crossbow expert, etc.) because they only need to land one for Sneak Attack. Not sure how much those would help here, since I know you're assuming they use the bonus for constant hide spam (this is not generally reflective of how I've personally seen rogue played, not least because you can't always hide... well, halflings usually can). Rogue does benefit a lot from other sources of advantage: barbarian wolf totem, invisibility spells, allies who knock people prone, Assassinate, etc.) but that's hard to reflect here.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 27, 2016, 06:59:32 AM
Hm. Rogue really likes getting second attacks (two weapon fighting, Crossbow expert, etc.) because they only need to land one for Sneak Attack. Not sure how much those would help here, since I know you're assuming they use the bonus for constant hide spam (this is not generally reflective of how I've personally seen rogue played, not least because you can't always hide... well, halflings usually can). Rogue does benefit a lot from other sources of advantage: barbarian wolf totem, invisibility spells, allies who knock people prone, Assassinate, etc.) but that's hard to reflect here.
That's a good point--if you take two attacks instead of one, it's kind-of like having advantage to hit (except you can also hit both, so the average damage is slightly higher).  You don't have a shield or anything, either, so there's no real downside to TWF.  Crossbow Expert is good, yeah, but takes an ASI, takes a bonus action...which unlike fighter Rogue has lots of good things to do with their bonus action, and lowers your AC if you prioritize it over DEX.

Wood Halfling, Wood Elf, and people with the Skulker feat can hide a lot.

Ways of granting people advantage are good, of course, but they also usually apply to anyone making attack rolls.  (Like...if you had a Warlock instead of a Rogue in your party, you could stick greater invisibility on the warlock, and Eldritch Blast away).  Obviously if you have both in your party, you give it to the Rogue, because not getting sneak attack with Rogue is really bad, whereas not having advantage with Warlock...eh, you'll be fine.  But again, you need more effort for the Rogue, so it's weird that the output is similar.

Though, again, with multiclassing the Rogue does just fine.  For example, Rogue/Barbarian gets an extra attack at Barb 5, and can consistently get advantage with Reckless Attack.  (You need to use strength for reckless attack, but Finesse weapons can use either STR or DEX, and sneak attack just requires finesse weapons).  Also, as long as you're dipping 5 levels of Barbarian, here have a free +10ft movement (to go with that Bonus Action Dash you already have).

Or Rogue dipping...even one level of Fighter to get a giant pile of equipment and a fighting style.  (Or more levels for extra attacks and ASIs n shit.  Rogue 12, Fighter 8 gets more ASIs by level 20 than any other build in the game (8 ASIs))

Or Rogue/Paladin, with Oath of Vengeance for advantage.

Like...it's weird cause Rogue is a fantastic class when multiclassing, but just seems to be missing pieces when it monoclasses.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 27, 2016, 07:23:43 AM
I wouldn't allow Sneak Attack from Reckless alone since it goes entirely against the flavour, though I agree 100% by RAW that it would work.

Quote
Rogue 12, Fighter 8 gets more ASIs by level 20 than any other build in the game (8 ASIs))

Nah, just 7? The usual five from every class level divisible by 4, the one from Fighter 6, the one from Rogue 10. So, same as normal Fighter. The only other bonus ASI is Fighter 14, which you don't hit.

Quote
Ways of granting people advantage are good, of course, but they also usually apply to anyone making attack rolls.  (Like...if you had a Warlock instead of a Rogue in your party, you could stick greater invisibility on the warlock, and Eldritch Blast away). 

This is absolutely true, yeah. However, it helps further take pressure off them needing to waste their bonus action on hiding, allowing them to use those for attacks. And while I agree that rogue has cool bonus action options, they are still just that: options. Advantages they have other classes don't (bonus dash, bonus disengage, etc.).


For what it's worth I think I agree that rogue is probably one of the weaker classes overall, but they serve a valuable skill niche and can take apart some fights well depending on build (like, while you won't surprise things very often, Assassin is very very very good the rare times you do).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 01, 2016, 07:35:54 AM
Nah, just 7? The usual five from every class level divisible by 4, the one from Fighter 6, the one from Rogue 10. So, same as normal Fighter. The only other bonus ASI is Fighter 14, which you don't hit.

Let's see...Fighter 4, 6, 8 (3).  Rogue 4, 8, 10, 12 (4).  Yeah, 7, my bad.

Quote
For what it's worth I think I agree that rogue is probably one of the weaker classes overall, but they serve a valuable skill niche and can take apart some fights well depending on build (like, while you won't surprise things very often, Assassin is very very very good the rare times you do).

Oh sure.  But like...this comes back to discussions about reliability.  Being very good once every 5 fights is...underwhelming.

Side note, they did a formal ruling on Contagion:

http://dnd.wizards.com/articles/features/rules-answers-june-2016

Q: Do contagion effects kick in immediately, or do they kick in when the target fails the three saving throws?
A: The effects of the contagion spell's disease are meant to activate after three failed saving throws.

Also noteworthy: minor illusion is confirmed to be completely stationary.  (This was to be expected when silent image had "you can now add motion").
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 27, 2016, 02:54:04 AM
I think this is the place for this discussion?  It seems like it.  Its this or Misc links but I don't wanna bog down Misc Links with it and want a real deep dive on this one.  Also note this is going to be chock full of personal bias because in case no one noticed, I am RU as fuck and R is my fave.

Today's card from Robo Rosewater Hidden Sands (https://twitter.com/RoboRosewater/status/758010033674133504), I think is the strongest design for a Red Control card I have seen in years.

The flavour is super on point, it doesn't eat up the colour pie (R does unpreventable damage).  It plays into R weakness regarding Enchantments and the way R is its own worst enemy (I can't handle enchantments, obviously no one else can.  wait what whyyyyyyyyyyyy? you cheaters.)

The interaction between whether your opponent holds that creature is pretty rad.  The additional reach it gives you (Cast it on a creature with low HP, get 7 face damage out of your Pyroclasm?  Sick) when tied with the potential CC it gives you if tying up an opponent's creature adds in a lot more interaction with attacking/defending than R normally does outside of damage in hand.

Just so good.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 27, 2016, 08:24:51 AM
That's not a control card.  It's 7 damage of reach.  Red has lots of ways to kill enemy creatures anyway, which it uses to kill blockers.  (Put this on an enemy creature, then kill it with shock or whatever.  Or put it on a creature they would have chump blocked with and attack).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 27, 2016, 10:17:13 AM
It is control of you pressure your opponent not to interact on the board with that creature.  But yeah it is mostly burn and turning board control cards into extra reach.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 27, 2016, 03:35:02 PM
It is control of you pressure your opponent not to interact on the board with that creature.  But yeah it is mostly burn and turning board control cards into extra reach.
But if you're playing a control deck, the punishment isn't really relevant.  Control decks don't race down their opponent's life totals, so if your opponent is a fast deck they can probably just eat 7 damage and kill you first anyway.

AND if the 7 damage punishment is relevant, but you don't have a way to activate it, it's 4 mana for a weaker effect than Pacifisim.  (Like...they sort of can't attack with the enchanted creature, except they can attack if you don't have the creatures to block. They sort-of can't block with the enchanted creature...but they can if their blocker is bigger than your attacker).  And bear in mind, pacifisim doesn't show up in tournaments much--it's not considered that strong.  A weaker pacifisim at 2 mana would be bad.  A card with a weaker effect than pacifisim that costs 4 mana is...nope.

Really, this card is mostly good if you activate it with your own removal to kill the opponent fast.  (And not even that amazing, since you're using two cards and 5+ mana to burn your opponent for 7.  You could also do that with a 2 mana 3 damage burn spell (to face), followed up by a 3 mana 4 damage burn spell (to face).  The one nice thing is that you also kill a small blocker instead of sending two burn spells to the face.  That's more value.  The not so nice thing is that burn spells are very flexible, whereas this is less flexible).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 27, 2016, 04:33:41 PM
Oh certainly way over costed to be playable.  You set it up and see it from a mile away even if it was cheap.  I don't know if it would ever see play, I doubt it ever would be particularly good unless it was obscenely under costed to the point you just use it purely as burn without letting it sit on board.

What I am after more is how much of a cohesive piece of design it is that plays in a very untraditional R space.  I mean checking the existing Auras there is stray things like Sluggishness, Earthbind that interact with the opponent's stuff, but most if it isn't really choices for the opponent to react so much as forces them to attack or not block.  It is oceans of buffs otherwise.

A red Aura that still pushes Red style impacts to the game (not blocking/attacking) and driving it with burning the face.  It is just a good bit of R design that pushes the envelope harder than R normally gets.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 31, 2016, 06:10:57 PM
I wrote a thing about D&D 5e:

https://np.reddit.com/r/dndnext/comments/4vazm8/solets_talk_about_jack_of_all_trades_reliable/

The short version is this.  Rogue at level 11 has a skill called Reliable Talent.  If you add your proficiency to an ability check, any roll below 10 is treated as a 10.

Bard at level 2 has a skill called Jack of All Trades, which lets you add half your proficiency to every ability check.  These two class traits have been ruled to work together by Jeremy Crawford:

http://www.sageadvice.eu/2015/12/11/do-remarkable-athlete-or-jack-of-all-trades-trigger-reliable-talent/

Which...there were arguments about this:

isn't this too powerful?  Why does adding half your proficiency count as adding proficiency?

I argue that it's not such a big deal--if you really want to be the king of skill checks, you can get proficiency in all skill checks by dipping one more level into Bard, one more level into Cleric (Knowledge), and taking a feat.  (This also gives you expertise in 4 more skills, which is a big deal in the level 14+ range).  (Although yes, the Jack of All Trades + Reliable Talent combo it still works on ability checks that don't use a skill--most notably initiative).

There is a different discussion in that topic, though about what it means for party balance to have one character be very good at all skill checks.  (Which is a problem not really created by the Reliable Jack combo).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Grefter on July 31, 2016, 06:47:37 PM
Quote from: literally that thread[/quote
What's a GM meant to do when player characters are capable of doing anything at all????????   What do you mean there is opportunity cost that isn't enormous but has a net positive outcome????????
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 12, 2016, 07:09:50 PM
A spreadsheet someone else made of 5e damage.  Doesn't seem to account for accuracy, or use +10 feats, but has the starting groundwork to look those up.  I might improve on this....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JIrEV1RFv6yxWEdqG6zP3z-ZONDTacquGyqYj8G-CdE/edit#gid=1769534668
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 23, 2016, 03:35:32 PM
Instead of doing something useful while I had no internet, I did something completely useless.

"What if in 5e you could gain class levels in any order?"

https://www.reddit.com/r/dndnext/comments/4z575z/what_if_you_could_gain_levels_in_a_class_in_any/
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 28, 2016, 07:35:47 PM
5e

So...let's talk about the SCAG cantrips.

http://engl393-dnd5th.wikia.com/wiki/Booming_Blade

http://engl393-dnd5th.wikia.com/wiki/Green-Flame_Blade

Most of the analysis I do is stuff in the core three rulebooks only. PHB, DMG, MM.  But there is technically one other book, the Sword Coast Adventure Guide, which contains...two cantrips that people talk about constantly, and I dunno what else.  (Is bladesinger Wizard in there?  I think it might be.  OK, so that's pretty strong too).

I'm not sure what to make of these cantrips.  By level 17 if you get full value out of them you're looking at 7d8 damage.  This is 31.5 damage.  This is similar to sneak attack after 17 levels in Rogue (9d6 = 32.5 damage).  You can do both, of course, and have a Rogue hit really hard.  But on the other hand, Rogue could use the buff so....

In general, they encourage making single attacks instead of multiple attacks, which I guess is fine since typically the most optimized damage I found was via multiattacking.  They encourage melee, which is also fine since hey, Sharpshooter+Crossbow Master is pretty good.  They're a pile of damage added on if you hit, so you're not encouraged to use the +10 on great weapon master.

All of this is actually pretty reasonable, and offers a different vector to build characters.  Where things get a little strange is that Sorcerers become pretty good at melee.  These are cantrips, after all, and that means you can Quicken them, and do them twice in one round.  Draconic Sorcerers can also add their Cha to (one of the damage rolls of) Green Flame Blade.  I've actually seen someone on a forum ask "why play Paladin when you can just play Sorcerer instead?"  An interesting question.

So...making a Sorc front-line build here...I think we want Warcaster (lets us make attacks of opportunity with SCAG cantrips).  I think if we're really focusing on melee attacking, we want to dip another class for shields and a better weapon.  (Fighter 1 gets shields, and, say, Dueling fighting style).

Options other than Fighter are...Paladin (meh.  Like...ok, you could go level 2 for Fighting Style and smites.  Except smites aren't that great--if you want to deal more melee damage in a day, you'd do better converting some spell slots to sorcery points so that you can quicken more cantrips).  Ranger (meh).  Druid (you get a shield, but no weapon).  Rogue (you get a weapon, but no shield).  Cleric (yeah, this is a solid reasonable option, particularly because it keeps your spellcasting progression going; needs 13 wisdom though.  But I think taking Tempest Cleric to level 2 for the maximize channel divinity is a solid option; that build is less about being a melee master, though so I won't focus on it now).  Barbarian (you can't use this cantrip while raging).

Once you have Fighter 1, eventually you probably want to grab Fighter 2 for action surge.  And once you have fighter 2 on a character that focuses on melee attacking, I think Fighter 3 (Battle Master) is probably worth picking up; especially on a character that attacks once or twice per round (you can spam maneuvers and probably not run out).  And Fighter 3 is a fine place to stop cause hey, technically you'll still reach Sorcerer 17 for the level 9 spell slots.

I think being a dex focused character is fine for this--Draconic bloodline sorcerers can have 13+dex AC, which assuming you raise dex to 20, reaches 18 AC, 20 AC with a shield.  HP will be a little low for a front-line character, so having a shield is probably desireable.  Obviously, going fighter heavy armour and strength based weapons are an option.  But they're not even that great.  (Two handed swords get up to 8.333 average damage with the appropriate fighting style.  A one handed dex based rapier with duelist is 6.5 average damage.  When most of the damage comes fron the cantrip, I'll take +2 AC over an extra 1.866 damage).

Optimising hard for race...I think you'd want Variant Human for War Caster, just because your ASIs will be pretty delayed.  That said...Half Elf lets you start with 16 Dex/Cha/Con, while a variant human would have a 14 in one of these (Con or Cha).  Once you get to the first ASI, Half Elf gets warcaster, Variant Human gets 18 Dex, and still has that 14 in another stat.  But the 18 dex is pretty damn important (+1 AC, +1 hit, +1 damage).  So mmm...variant human sounds better TBH.  With all that being said, variant human does technically lose you 2 HP cause you can't take level 1 in Fighter (spellcasting is a pre-requisite for War Caster).

What stat would it sandbag between Cha and Con?  Not sure, actually.  With Cha...it does represent damage with Green Flame Blade (baseline, and you get to add more Cha at level 6) and obviously it makes your spells better (although you might be focusing on spells that don't rely on Cha, like polymorph and haste).  Still...you presumably still take Fireball?  And 14 Cha vs 16 Cha is a decent upgrade on a Draconic sorcerer's fireball.  Con represents HP (which you need more of, due to d8 hit dice from Sorcerers), and concentration saves.  Things that will come up frequently, although it's not a massive bonus to either.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 28, 2016, 09:16:54 PM
Quote
I've actually seen someone on a forum ask "why play Paladin when you can just play Sorcerer instead?"

I hope someone smacked them down verbally because this seems like one of those people who can't notice anything but damage.

There are many answers to this question, but the simplest answer is the paladin auras which do silly things like boost everyone's saving throws by Cha and half all magic damage.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Magetastica on August 28, 2016, 10:20:52 PM
In a party with a Warlock, a Sorcerer, and a Paladin, I would definitely say that the Sorcerer was the least helpful of the group. Utility? Paladin does it better with Auras and Smiting magic. Damage? Warlock says Eldritch Blast. (I was the one playing the Sorcerer, too)

Also, Sorcerer only gets d6 HP, so if you are hell-bent on playing a melee Sorcerer, I really don't know why you aren't playing a Bladesinging Wizard. Sorcerer only gets so many times they can Quicken, and if you're splitting between 3 stats, you're going to have a hard time either hitting, dealing damage, or surviving. Bladesong Wizard doesn't need a dip (but benefits almost as much if they do) as Sorcerer, and has a better go of things at being a melee fighter. They get boosted AC, boosted Speed, a better list of spells to help enhance their ability to fight like that, the list goes on. So if we're talking a pure nova, then yes, Sorcerer can probably dish out more damage very quickly, but I'm not sure I see an advantage to doing a melee sorc instead of a ranged sorc for the exact same benefits.

I mean, if you're a melee Sorc using Dex, then your best weapon is a Rapier, which is d8, going off of Dex, and then you use your Cha to add a little more damage to it. Or, you can use Firebolt, d10 and same scaling progression as GFB, Cha based, and still get your Cha damage boost to it. The biggest benefit to GFB is the splash, which if you're fighting smart enemies they can pretty easily work around that anyway.

I dunno, as someone who's playing a Bladesong Wizard and has played a DPS-based Sorc, I feel waaaaaay more useful as the Wizard, including helping deal damage in fights.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 29, 2016, 06:31:50 AM
The biggest benefit to GFB is the splash, which if you're fighting smart enemies they can pretty easily work around that anyway.

If they're splitting up for splash, then you use Booming Blade.  They can choose not to move, but then you've effectively lowered their movement to 0, which is pretty cool.

EDIT:

Eldritch Blast, yes, is good.  (Although Sorc can pair that with twin spell too, so once again Sorc can do it better).

Draconic Bloodline Sorcerers get extra HP (so more like a 1d8 HP class).

Bladesinger Wizards are just strong in general.  Like...highest AC at level 1 (when singing assuming you use mage armour).




For sorcerer in general...you should be able to output more damage than a Wizard.  You get all the core damage spells, but you have metamagic, and draconic bloodline can give you a small damage boost as well (to one element).  The big value in general comes from what you can do with metamagic--like...twin spell Polymorph, now you have one person using their concentration to polymorph two people.  Similarly, twin spell haste.

Sorcerers also get Con save as one of their two starting saves,  which is quite nice.

Screwing around with cantrips isn't necessarily the focus of the class, just something they do fairly well.  (See also Warlock 2, Sorcerer X for Quicken + Eldritch Blast).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 29, 2016, 07:13:29 AM
Booming Blade isn't a splash move; both parts of the attack must target the same monster. As you note, it's a soft-control move being either quite damaging or applying a don't-move effect (sadly, the enemy chooses which). Greenflame Blade always gets the extra damage, but it's unfocused... still great for finishing off an enemy who has just been revived by Healing Word, as my party discovered. Granted, since this is being compared to Extra Attack, it's not that special, I suppose.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 29, 2016, 07:42:22 AM
Granted, since this is being compared to Extra Attack, it's not that special, I suppose.

Well...they are cantrips, so they're supposed to sort-of scale for that (with damage increases at 5, 11, 17).  They're also on the high end of cantrips, in that if you get both damage procs off, then they're close to Eldritch Blast.  (If you don't get both damage procs off, then they're a more standard cantrip in terms of damage).

Granted, this isn't enough to keep up with the extra attack class feature on its own, but if you get to do these twice in one round (or three times with an opportunity attack) suddenly they're quite good.

Booming Blade in particular also has the advantage of not really needing any magic stats.  A purely physical character can get booming blade through a feat or a 1 level dip or whatever.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 11, 2016, 01:38:42 AM
D&D 5e

A cool build that I saw (did not come up with myself) -- Tempest Cleric, variant human with Spell Sniper as the feat.  Why spell sniper?  When you get that feat, you get one cantrip with it.  Pick Booming Blade.  BB normally has a range of 5 ft, Spell Sniper makes it 10ft.  Booming Blade people with a reach weapon (such as a whip).


And...on to much sillier things--Bladesong.  It's not a spell, and it doesn't require concentration.  This means that you can use it while in Barbarian rage!  Now, it has some restrictions.  No wearing medium armor, no shields, and no attacking with a two handed weapon.  This still opens up two weapon fighting, and grappling as options.  (Grappling in particular benefits from the +10 movement provided by bladesong, as well as from the longstrider spell--more movement means dragging grappled people further).

Is this even worth it?  Well...maybe.  To be clear, it's not the sole reason you go Wizard.  (You pick up Longstrider, you get a familiar, you get some utility).  I mean, if you're really maximizing AC, you can go 16 Dex, 14 int/con/str (you're an elf so 16 dex is easy to hit).  And then you use Mage Armor, and get 18 AC at level 1 while having both hands free.  A barb typically maxes out at 17 AC if both hands are free.  So...that's higher.  Realistically, you probably don't want to be a dex barb, though, especially if you're going for grapples.  You'd start with like 15 str 15 con, 14 dex, 14 int, and then use your first ASI to get 16 STR/CON.  This...will get you 17 AC (matches medium armour).  Of course, the cap is much higher, but it requires raising CON or DEX when you probably want to raise STR.

So mmm...it certainly doesn't break the game.  It has some uses (50 move barbarian; 60 with longstrider).  But also has some downsides I haven't outlined yet (starting the bladesing is a bonus action, but so is starting a rage).

So...crunching the numbers...it's a build that exists.  There aren't hugely compelling reasons to play it, but you could use it wouldn't be terrible.

(Where I think there's a lot more potential for a multiclass is with a Monk.  Monks don't want shields or armour.  Wood Elf is already a good Monk, which takes care of the Elf requirement.  Monks can actually cast spells during combat, such as Shield.  16/14/14/14 is pretty doable.  Mage Armor can compensate your AC for not starting with 16 Wis.  So...it's a 2 level dip that gets you +2 AC and +10 movement, and some utility).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 13, 2016, 05:34:52 AM
Archiving a link to this post here.  (Basically, I rolled 2d12, looked up two classes on the 5e class table, figured out plausible reasons to multiclass aaaand repeat).

https://www.reddit.com/r/dndnext/comments/52azuk/ive_been_rolling_2d12_and_then_looking_up_the/

Really, this was mostly a brainstorming tool for interesting class combos I hadn't thought of, and class mechanic interactions.  There's some high-power ones I hadn't noticed, although I think my favourite one just for the pure flavour is Druid/Warlock.  (Have Devil's Sight, Cast Darkness, Wild Shape as a bonus action.  Your enemies expect a scrawny caster, to be hiding in the darkness and then get mauled by a bear with demonic eyes).  I mean, that's probably not mechanically any more powerful than shooting Eldritch Blasts from Darkness, but it's still totally sweet.

Probably the highest power one was Rogue with a 2 level dip into Wizard (Bladesinger).  Rogues only need Dex and Con, so 16 Int with starting stats is pretty reachable--pretty nice with Bladesong.  Wizard gives Booming Blade/GFB which Rogues want, and frees them up to pick up whichever Rogue archetype.  Wizard gives Find Familiar, which among other things is a pretty reliable source of advantage.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 13, 2017, 11:24:28 PM
I should probably crosspost this here too (Fire Emblem Heroes)

https://kaitlyn-burnell.tumblr.com/post/160628817503/my-fire-emblem-heroes-arena-build-and-theory
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Captain K on May 14, 2017, 03:40:38 AM
Your terminology is confusing.  Triangle Adept Raven makes me think of the character Raven.  And Assassin makes me think of the Assassin characters like Jaffar.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on May 14, 2017, 03:56:20 PM
In fairness, Nino is an assassin by that definition too, and Jaffar is built to be an assassin by the definition mc uses. (Although you probably shouldn't use a colourless in your core 3 unless your options are limited.)

The Raven tome's name is unfortunate, yes, given the character of the same name. But Henry having a raven tome is just so fitting. (A shame it's the least-used one...)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 15, 2017, 06:02:55 AM
So...a while back I had a tier list for vanilla FFT, and there were problems with it (it tried to both give weight to the ridiculous power level of stuff that helps builds like Gained JP Up and Move+1, and tried to compare that to stuff like...Samurai and Calculator).

I think my mistake is that I shouldn't have one tier list, I should have two tier lists.


Play-through Context: Co-op the context of this will be the way in which I have mostly experienced FFT recently, which is co-op play, where each player controls one character, which means a lot of the more obnoxious combos probably aren't happening.  Quickening?  Nah.  CMQ no.  Sunken Stated Dance?  Yeah, good luck convincing your friends that they should petrify each other rather than playing the game.

Two tier lists: Dip and Focus:

Focus So...when people play co-op, they just make things.  Like...someone will be like "I'm making a bard" and it doesn't really matter that there's no really optimised build in FFT that  Bard, they're making a bard.  This would be their focus.  High tier Focuses would be like Calculator, and Summoner.  Low tier in this category would be like Squire, Bard.

Dip Their dips would be everything they get along the way.  Gained JP Up, Move+1, Bolt and Bolt2 from black magic, maybe a bunch of skills from Item.  Maybe once they're done mastering Sing, they take it to a high HP class like Geomancer.  High tier in this category would be stuff that lots and lots of builds should always use like Squire, Wizard, Chemist.  Low tier would be like Lancer, Samurai, Calculator--classes that you are likely to ignore if they are not your focus.

Sometimes classes will be high on one list, and low on another (Calculator is an overpowered focus, but a rare dip.  Squire is a nearly mandatory dip, but a terrible focus).  A decent amount of the time the classes will be similarly positioned, however.  (Mime is dead last on both lists.  Summoner is near the top of both lists).

It's also worth noting that because of the way spillover JP works, the highest value dips will nudge up the value of focuses.  (Ex: being a Chemist focus is generally quite good for the party because everyone has uses for Chemist JP, but not many builds want to delay their build to spend time in Chemist).

I'm in the early stages on this, haven't really cemented an order for either list yet.  Going to work on a preliminary ordering, but at this point it's a work in progress, and I'm quite open to suggestions.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 15, 2017, 07:01:26 AM
OK, preliminary pass on the dip list.


Dip List (draft)
1   sq
2   wi
3   su
4   ch
5   tm
6   or
7   pr
8   ni
9   me
10   th
11   ar
12   kn
13   ge
14   mo
15   ca
16   sa
17   la
18   ba
19   da
20   mi

Squire vs Wizard I think there's some debate on.  Everybody, literally everybody dips Squire, but all of the stuff gets replaced.  Nothing from Wizard gets replaced; MAU is best in game.  Highest MA in game.  Black Magic falls off pretty hard, but if you're using a wizard for the MA, then you get it for free, so it's rarely a wasted investment.

Summoner for one 200 JP summon is kind-of a disgustingly powerful dip, especially for the JP cost.  It's kind of more egregious than anything in Wizard, but Wizard just has a lot of things you want to dip for (including Black Magic, which is a solid dip for the first two chapters or so).  While there's a whole lot of focuses that use item over summon, it's like...most of the low tier focuses.  Chemist is also pretty egregious though, it just...can get replaced by better stuff in mage builds.

Time Mage is just...clearly ahead of everything below it, can't touch the top 4.  Teleport.  Demi for bosses (with higher hit rate and lower JP cost than Life Drain).  Haste.

Oracle...well, getting a bit of JP in it for Silence Song or Life Drain is pretty legit.

Preist I'm starting to be unsure if they should be so high.  Fantastic dip for a calc, but that's one focus.  Definitely a dip I do use occasionally when I want 110 speed.  Acceptable healing dip, even if I respect Chemist more.

Ninja...go to physical carrier for all those physical skillsets, like Punch Art, and Jump (which...doesn't always want Ninja due to Ninjas often being 1 speed faster than the enemy) and umm...max PA Wiznaibus from Dance.

Mediator I might be overrating dip for Invitation, but it's there.  Dip 200 JP for occasional faith raising when doing easy fights also a thing.

Thief Archer are the Move+2 and Concentrate that make Ninja focuses work.  Archer is dipped by more classes (Charge is an acceptable secondary for a Chemist) but Concentrate can often be subbed for Martial arts or Attack Up or Equip Sword, and move+2 is a pretty reasonable pickup for physical builds that don't want to go near Time Mage (pretty reasonable pickup for, say, Agrias).

Knight is dipped often for Weapon Guard, occasionally for Equip Sword, or Equip Shield.  Occasionally used if nobody else has called dibs on a Knight Sword.  Best physical class in Chapter 1, if you have a physical build and need a bit more power in Chapter 1.

Geomancer is a carrier, but not an impressive carrier.  Wizard carries most of the magic focuses best, Ninja carries most of the physical focuses best.  Attack Up exists and kinda matches Martial Arts, so ahead of Monk certainly.  Good carrier for Agrias.  Can be preferable to Ninja for Jump users.

Monk is mostly an all or nothing class but does have a few dips.  Martial Arts for a Ninja.  Occasionally Counter.  Sometimes HP Restore but it costs more JP than Auto Potion, so only really if you need Monk for a prerequisite.

15-19 are all the advanced classes with hefty unlock requirements.  You don't usually dip any of them.  Tentatively put Calc near the top cause if you have a calc in your party, you might just get Damage Split from spillover--it's 300 JP, and a very good ability.  Samurai...yeah, some people do literally get blade grasp and then use it on a non-samurai build.  Lancer...you don't really dip usually, but I've heard of people using Jump secondary while training a Samurai.  Bard...Ramza could conceivably grab Bard and like Angel Song...and then take one or two songs to Calculator which works well with sing/dance because they don't care about speed.  Dancer is more expensive to unlock than Bard, and in the wrong part of the tree for Calc.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 15, 2017, 08:08:41 AM
preliminary pass on the focus list

focus list (draft)
1   ca
2   tm
3   su
4   ch
5   ni
6   or
7   sa
8   la
9   da
10   pr
11   mo
12   wi
13   me
14   ge
15   ar
16   kn
17   ba
18   th
19   sq
20   mi

Calculator...you can expect an uncooperative party that won't equip Chameleon Robes.  Calc is kind of famous for being busted, though, and that stays true even with uncooperative teammates.

Time Mage as #2...it's something like the second easiest SCC, and a lot of its weaknesses as an SCC are easily fixed with dips.  Dip summoner for Ramuh, and Squire for Gained JP Up.  Alternatively, you can dip MP restoring.  If you focus Time Mage, you get all of Teleport, Short Chage, and Meteor.  The spillover JP effect is real, too (going Time Mage might get your whole party Teleport).

Which makes Summoner #3.  It's a disgusting dip.  It's not a bad focus, either, but it's not that much of an increase in power to go from having just Ramuh, to having Ramuh, Shiva, Ifrit, Titan, Leviathan, Moogle, Fairy.

I'm not sure Chemist should be this high (4th).  They're the easiest SCC, but they don't need or even gain that much from dips (Charge for guns...).  That said...I'm literally never unhappy to have a Chemist on the team.  The spillover JP effect is real; it doesn't necessarily get everyone Auto Potion, but it might get people Hi-Potion.  The big thing I like about Chemist compared to a lot of the options I currently have below it is that you never suck; it never feels like you're holding your party back.  Go to Ninja, have fun being a Thief for a bazilion fights.  Go to Samurai, have fun being underwhelming for ages.

Ninjas kill things fairly efficiently.  Just being a Ninja, with your JP in other classes spent on skills designed on boosting Ninja baseline abilities (Move+2 makes throw better, Concentrate makes Throw and Autos not miss) is quite good.  But yeah, need to be a Thief to get there.

Oracle also takes a long time to get rolling, but is a bit of a swiss army knife when the skillset is near maxed.

Samurai...Draw Out is arguably a stronger skillset than Yin Yang Magic, but you need to be bad for a really long time.  First you get to be a female monk/knight/thief to unlock the class.  Then you get this class with terrible stats/equips that demands about 3000 JP.  And once you do that you're still not super impressive until you get Teleport.

Lancer...Jump kills things, not as good as Ninja or Samurai kill things.  But it kills things.

Dancer...done this focus before in co-op builds.  Nameless Dance is legit, and Wiznaibus is really not bad if you pump PA and brave enough.  I might be biased cause it's a focus I've done, though.  That said, Dancer has really strong moves, and struggles in assassination missions, and there's lots of ways dips make assassination missions a joke.

Priest...I've been in quite a few parties with focus priests, and I'm usually not that impressed.  But like...it's still a mage class, still one of the easier SCCs.

Monk...I've seen a lot of people start going Monk, and then say "man, I need to decide what I'm doing with this character because they feel bad" and then leave Monk for greener pastures.

Wizard...why would you make a focus Wizard?  That's just weird.  Don't think I've ever really seen this, but it sounds...playable.  Dip for Ramuh to get around evasion when needed, then sure, pick up MAU, Countermagic, Flare.... 

Mediator...raising/lowering faith/brave as a party service.  Mimic Daravoning stuff.  Have gun.  Sounds...okish.

Geomancer...Another carrier class like wizard where it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to focus the class.  (You can just hit things hard with a sword and have a shield, and have lots of elemental tile coverage to get around evade).

Archer...mmm...possibly this should be above Geomancer as a focus?  (I actually don't remember the consensus on which SCC was easier, although a lot of SCC ease comes down to stuff like Counter Flood vs Arrow Guard as reactions, which...whatever, you probably get a better reaction).  Charge, at least, can be taken to gun classes.

Bard: Angel Song exists and is legit.  You can focus Bard to get Move+3; it's not better than Teleport, but it's useable if you happen to learn it.

Knight: I'm not sure about the ordering between Knight and Thief, but at least if you focus Knight you can do stuff like use Weapon Break on a gun.  (Don't focus Knight/Thief).

Squire: how exactly do you focus Squire (if you're not Ramza)?  Like...don't get me wrong, I've done co-op with people who insisted on learning the whole Basic Skill skillset before moving on, but that's like...600 JP, which is still dip range.  To spend any significant amount of time in Squire you'd have to stay in the class long after you have nothing to spend JP on, and...why?  It's like...Geomancer with 20 subtracted from most of its mults.

Mime: I'm not sure if you'll have Mime unlocked before the end of the game.  If you do...enjoy having no equipment with the pretty close to average HP mult, 5% front evade, inability to set any RSM.  This might be more impressive than someone who has stuck in vanilla squire the whole game but...I'm not actually sure about that.  Squire can be an imitation Geomancer and use Twist Headband and Power Sleeve.  Squire can hit things with Swords, which are really good weapons.  I guess if you were really trying to make Squire work, maybe you'd get Two Hands or Two Swords and bring it back to Squire; maybe you'd get Teleport and bring it back to Squire.  Maybe you'd get Autopotion and bring it back to Squire.  Mimes can't set any of these things.  They can Mime, but I'm not sure that's better than having Two Swords, Auto Potion, Teleport, and equipment.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 15, 2017, 09:22:00 PM
So...thinking about it, I should probably lower Ninja on the dip list.  Yes, highest PA of classes that have real gear.  Yes, highest speed.  As a carrier these are theoretically good.

But it feels really optional for every focus that might go there.  After mastering Punch Art, do you go to Ninja?  I mean...you can, but you can also just stick in Monk and set Attack Up.  After mastering Lancer do you go to Ninja?  I mean, in many cases not if it makes you faster than your enemies and unable to jump on them.  After mastering Agrias, do you go Ninja?  You can, but in order for it to really keep up with knight swords you need scorpion tail.  I've also gone to Ninja with Dancer (max wiznaibus damage) and math skill (equip H bag, use Equip Shield, and be a speed status machine).  These are cute, but not entirely serious builds.

By contrast, Move+2, there are meta builds that just do not skip dipping this (like...focus Ninjas, not to be confused with dip Ninjas--two tier list confusionnnnn).  For the dip tier list, probably move Ninja below Archer and Thief.  Probably still above Knight and Geo.  (Knight Geo and Ninja are all sort-of in the same boat of "well you can use these to suplement other focuses; not a big deal if you don't, though!"  Ninja just the strongest of the three).

Speaking of things you can dip this but not a big deal if you don't...Mediator.  Yep, probably below Ninja somewhere.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 16, 2017, 04:32:35 PM
Was talking to Laggy and he was a little confused on this, so I will try to define better what the focus tier list is.

To be clear, I have an efficiency tier list, where Samurai is a bottom 5 class because they take a lot of training and are not Calculator, and Knight is moderately high on the list cause Weapon Guard.  I know how to make that teir list, I've made it before, not the kind of tier list I'm making today.

In D&D especially 3e and 3.5e there was a tier list measuring the relative power of classes.  DMs would use this to figure out how to balance encounters, or whether there would be power imbalances in the group leaving some members feeling inept.  Cause people will just pop in and say "I'm playing a fighter".  In 3.5 the balance was so extreme the DM might need to say "no, you won't be able to keep up with the party".

Co-op in vanilla FFT is kind-of similar.  It's vanilla FFT, it's not exactly hard, so people build whatever they want.  Obviously there's no DM that's scaling difficulty, but if you've only got 3 players doing co-op you probably won't want a Bard, for example, and might try to talk that player into doing a different build.

It's not an SCC, you still set RSM and secondaries, and you usually pick decent budget options.  Within reason, though--Laggy was saying "well, if I was forced to play Priest for some reason, I would first get Magic Attack Up and Ramuh, and then stick those on Priest and largely ignore white magic."  And well...both of these are low enough JP cost to grab quickly sure.  But...if I was doing co-op with, say, 3 PCs and trying to figure out how to balance the party, it's not what I'd expect if someone said "I'm making a Priest".

That said, while I'm not sure it "counts" for being a priest focus for this tier list, and I guess I need to define what counts better, I'm also kind-of curious how good it is, cause Priest has issues like "awkward speed for casting Ramuh", so I've started a quick vanilla playthrough of a bunch of middle-of-the-road classes that I'm not sure how to sequence ("MAU Ramuh 'what is white magic' Priest", Monk, Dancer, Lancer).  Still in Chapter 1 unlocking classes (and getting enough JP for MAU).  Just finished sand rat cellar.

The Dancer and Lancer have been in Thief unlocking classes for most of the time, dealing 20 melee damage.  Monk has been dealing 30-36 melee damage, and still doesn't have the JP for a relevant Monk skill (maybe by Chapter 2...).  Priest (been in Wizard the whole time) with Bolt1 saving for MAU has been dealing usually 50-60 AoE range and completely carrying the party, but that's to be expected of running a Wizard in Chapter 1--at some point she'll be done grinding for MAU and forced to actually be priest.

In theory the Knight into Monk has been my second strongest character due to more damage (although...1 less move, probably slightly less HP than Thieves).  But in practice, right now everyone's getting carried by a Chapter 1 Wizard so the distinction of best no-skillset melee character doesn't feel too important.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 17, 2017, 05:28:11 PM
Finished Chapter 1--one reset on Fort Zeakden.

Priest is now a Priest with MAU and Ramuh--Silk Robe gives enough MP for two Ramuhs.  While certainly still my best PC right now this setup is...really not impressive on a Priest yet.  She has 5 MA.  MAU raises this to 6 MA.  Ramuh dealt 67 damage to Algus.  Wizard with Bolt1 and no MAU can match that.

Monk got Wave Fist in time for Wiegraf to get around counters...Wave Fist made its debut by missing a lot.  The Monk is genuinely feeling like the second best character he's supposed to be at this point, though.  Dancer feels equally irrelevant in all classes (20 damage in Theif, 21 damage in Monk, 24 damage in Knight...).  Lancer is a Lancer and...can't deal damage yet, but did get to bait one spell and then Jump to avoid it.  Having Potion and Phoenix Down makes no character feel like dead weight, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 17, 2017, 07:17:04 PM
Quote
Archer...mmm...possibly this should be above Geomancer as a focus?  (I actually don't remember the consensus on which SCC was easier, although a lot of SCC ease comes down to stuff like Counter Flood vs Arrow Guard as reactions, which...whatever, you probably get a better reaction).  Charge, at least, can be taken to gun classes.

Geomancer is considered quite a lot easier since they deal way more damage and still have the option to kite at range like archers do (their range isn't as good as archers, but... not as much worse as you might expect). There was some debate as to whether Geomancer or Monk was the second easiest physical-job SCC (ninja being the easiest); Samurai would be in that debate too if you considered them physical. Not counting stuff like Chemist obviously.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on June 17, 2017, 08:10:49 PM
I've yet to write anything down, anywhere, but I have thought about how much JP do I need to invest in a skillset before it no longer feels like dead weight/waste of a skillset slot.  Which is highly subjective and probably beyond the scope of this topic.

Anyways, scattered thoughts and questions;

- How much JP will one earn over the course of a game?  Not counting spillover JP here; there's no guarantee it will be in the classes you want. 

- What about JP investments to unlock classes?  Angel Song and Nameless Dance are both useful tools and only cost 100 JP but unlocking their classes takes investing over 1000 JP (after factoring in the 100-199 JP every unit starts with in every class).  1100-1200 JP is a more likely minimum commitment since the investment is unlikely to be perfectly distributed.

- Crystals: is there in impact?  Uncooperative teammates are a thing, I guess.

- How many classes and/or setups can use a skill well?  Ramuh is awesome and 200 JP isn't too far out of the way though needs good MA and enough MP to make use of it so mainly the five main mage classes and maybe Geomancer will get mileage from it.  Without high PA, Punch Art come out like a cherry tap and some will argue Martial Arts is needed as well.  At the other end, Item with Potion and Phoenix Down can contribute to sandbagging at worst and Time Magic for Haste and Slow can be viably wielded by many classes.  These are just examples.

- Golem seems like a handy Summoner skill to have access to.  Or is it?

- Shield using setups like Abondon sometimes, even if it only shines in chapter 4.

- Magic DefendUp is handy at Velius and a few other select places.  I guess offensive supports are more favored?

- Everyone benefits from Maintenance in the three fights with Mighty Sword using opponents.  Though Math Skillers can escape without it at Rofel 2 due to AI manipulation.

- Pray Faith is one of those skills I never seem to want to spend JP on yet it has its uses with mage allies.

- Mustadio really likes Equip Gun though anyone else will likely have more desirable training options.  I feel Mimic Daravon is the real draw of the Talk Skill set.  Threaten is fun but seems to be only situationally useful and Invitation's low hit rate is something I only put up with if I'm looking to grab gear.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 17, 2017, 08:39:54 PM
Mimic Daravon is one of those skills I've gotten mileage out of on the SCC but I have a hard time respecting normally. 40+MA just isn't good enough. Yin Yang delivers the same effect with the same horizontal radius (less vertical) at far greater accuracy. Additionally, inaccurate skills like Mimic Daravon and Steal Heart have the problem where you lose out on considerable amounts of JP by going for them with any frequency.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 17, 2017, 11:49:26 PM
End of Chapter 2

Monk now has Earth Slash, Wave Fist, and Chakra.  Earth Slash is nice cause it has actual range and doesn't miss, but still feels trashy at 48 damage.  Been using Power Wrist just to hit 8PA, but the 3 move sucks (he doesn't quite have enough JP for Move+1).  Notably his being in Monk did give the Dancer HP Restore from spillover, so that's nice.

Lancers are good in Chapter 2--200 HP, and deal about 100 damage (starts the chapter at 72).  I screwed up though, and got Vertical Jump 8 instead of Level Jump 8...so...tainted experiment I guess?  Lancer carried a decent amount of the party weight this Chapter; Priest would assassinate key targets at 6 range with MAU Ramuh and then run out of MP, Lancer would clean up.

Priest has been solid.  100-130 damage with Ramuh usually.  Only enough MP for two Ramuhs (and maybe one Cure)--I only got Chakra at the very end of the chapter, so three Ramuhs was largely out of the question until then.  Since she's faster than the enemies, I just embraced it and went Green Beret, usually wait on spot first turn; does mean that Archers can get big charges on her.  Got Holy just in time for Queklain which was funny.  In order to hit 9 MA (so that MAU would take it to 12) had to use Wizard Mantle, which...meant 3 move; not a big deal thanks to her range, but makes it harder to set up big AoEs.  She usually hit 1-2 people with a summon.

Dancer was okish, since most of the chapter was Geomancer (at least it has range, more than the Monk could say for most of the Chapter) and Lancer (decent in Chapter 2).  Damage wasn't hardcore tied to PA like monk, so she felt free to use battle boots.  Damage in Geo generally lower than Monk--like 15 with Elemental and 40-50 with her auto (but she makes up for it in mobility/range).  Damage in Lancer was higher than Monk if she jumped (81 in theory; Monk was typically 60 with punches and wave fist).  Got actually to Dancer at Gate of Lionel, and Nameless Dance is a good dance, like really good.  (This power spike probably makes her the best PC for non-assassinations now; MAU Holy being the best for assassinations).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2017, 05:13:51 AM
End of Chapter 3

Dancer was dominant for a brief period in the first part of the chapter when the party didn't have much damage.  And then...well it's not that the Dancer got any worse, but other characters got much more damage, lowering the value of status, and there were a number of assassination missions where Dancer was not valuable.  The Dancer was fine in the second half of the chapter (Nameless Dance is good) but just fine, instead of standout.

Lancer...by the end, using an Equip Spear Monk with a Bracer had 14 PA and dealt 231 damage.  Generally two-shots most enemies from 8 range, sometimes one-shots.

Priest...between a Monk that now had Chakra, and just...better gear with more MP, and shorter fights cause everyone's damage was going up could generally just spam Ramuh every turn instead of saving MP.  Holy mattered in the assassination missions, which is like a third of Chapter 3.  Damage...generally 160ish.  Range, AoE, much faster charging than Jump.

Monk...was barely relevant for most of the Chapter (Earth Slash was aroud 75-80 damage for most of the chapter) and then spiked up hard after Yardow, when I picked up Attack Up and a Bracer simultaneously.  Suddenly with 13 PA and attack up...Earth Slash hits for 150, basic physicals hit for 223.  In my brief period outside of Monk, I found out that my Monk has bad compatibility with most of my team, and Revive had a 65% hitrate, so I went back to Attack Up Monk with phoenix down, rather than heading to Ninja.  Note: one less PA than the Lancer because Monk has bad PA growth.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on June 18, 2017, 05:49:19 AM
I think Dancer is pretty overrated on the focus list at the moment honestly. Like... you spend an awful lot of time being a sub-optimum physical fighter in order to get a solid randomslayer who falls flat against bosses. That's an awfully large percentage of fights to be mediocre in just to be good (but not Calculator- or Summoner-level amazing) in the rest.

I mean I've done multiplayer fights with both focus dancer and focus priest allies and there's not really mich question in my mind the priest is a better contributor to the team overall. (They also have a significantly easier SCC, etc.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2017, 08:01:17 PM
Well...my thinking with Dancer is that you master everything you want in Dance, and then you take it...wherever you feel like really, but probably something with damage.  But this is pretty vague, so I just went with a really JP expensive build on her so that I could mostly watch the Dance aspect, and watch the other characters. (So I took her to Samurai...and then in early Chapter 4 when I realized I basically wasn't using Draw Out over Dance, Dancing Time Mage for Teleport, then back to Samurai).  Dance itself actually picked up value in Chapter 4, with a lot of non-assassination fights (Sluice, Balk, walls, etc).  No assassination missions till Limberry, and Nameless Dance won a bunch of fights till then.    Sequence of assassinations after Limberry where I just left her in Samurai, and she was fine, functional, could deal about 200 damage or so.  And she basically trained in Samurai the rest of the chapter (got all the relevant skills out of Samurai by like...UBS5, and still switched back to Nameless Dance for Balk).

Monk was the real loser in Chapter 4.  Eventually his PA went up to 14 (189 damage Earth Slashes with Attack Up).  But it didn't matter cause maybe 20% of the Chapter was Earth Slashable.  Just...Earth Clothes on enemies through Germinas Peak, a whole bunch of floating enemies including zodiacs.  He Earth Slashed some Knights, wave fisted some charging enemies, but mostly he was the phoenix down water boy, used Chakra too.  It is worth noting, though, he was the one unit in my party that could really take advantage of hitting charging enemies.  Also, credit where credit is due, my whole team ended up with HP restore, and it was solid, and he ended up with Hammedo, which straight up won some fights.

I wasn't sure where I was taking the Lancer Long-term.  I was thinking Monk with Equip Spear, since I already had some Monk skills from a crystal, and this would give access to some (bad) revival.  Laggy convinced me to go Ninja, though.  Which...turned out fine.  My concerns of being too fast didn't really materialize--by the time I actually unlocked Ninja, enemies were speed 8, and the Ninja was speed 8.  When the Ninja hit speed 9 a few fights later, enemies were mostly speed 9 (Flash Hat enemies at the church, zodiacs).  So...it was mostly all upside.  PA was 16 with Power Sleeve Twist, Bracer, so 288 damage with Jump.  Final dungeon also had me switching Twist Headband for Thief Hat, so having that option was nice.  (Worth mentioning that sigificant weapon upgrades exist through Poaching.  Scorpion Tail rare poach from Hyudras is 368, allows support abilities that aren't equip lance, and improves your auto by letting you two swords.  Holy Lance common poach from Sacreds is 336.  Dragon Whisker rare poach from red dragons is 408.  Javellin II is 720).  I will note that Jump's max vert actually kinda was an issue; I even had vert8, which I never planned to get, and it just...annoying.  I also definitely felt the lack of revival, although I dunno if Monk with Jump would really be better.

Priest...Ramuh damage largely didn't move (still maybe 170 or so on average) but for much of the chapter all my long range damage was charge based (or dancer who has better things to do like Nameless Dance, or Monk who is crying in the corner because everyone is wearing Earth Clothes).  That said, the harder fights for this party were honestly probably the assassination fights, and Holy was party best damage...when useable (the 6ctr charge time was a significant limiter).  Also, the healing and revival from white magic was relevant.  A lot of these "final form" builds didn't have revival (X class with Dance or Wizard with Draw Out, Ninja with Jump) there were enough slow fights (Balk, which I took slow, for instance, Altima) where just healing was relevant.


Resets from Chapter 2-4 (note, I opted against doing cheeze equipment, so no Chameleon Robe vs Wiegraf, no Rubber shoes in Lionel, no Flame Shields or Ice Shields vs Balk).

Gate of Lionel: 1 (didn't set Nameless Dance)
Wiegraf3: 2 (one where I went in with Lancer--which I realized wouldn't work.  Switched Monk with Jump, and then had at least one reset where Lightning Stab crit and one-shot).
Wiegraf3 Resets that don't count: 3 (forgetting to set jump after job change >_>)
Velius: 1 (Needed to retreat and Jump with Ramza rather than jumping in spot.  Did not help that my Dancer was basically irrelevant--100 damage Koutetsu that she struggled to get in range to even use)
South Wall of Bethla: 1 (Doesn't count--forgot to buy Phoenix Downs)
Adramelk: 1 (Bahamut'd.  Was not in a good position from Dycedarg cause Ramza kept getting one-shotted before he could move during the Dycedarg part)
Zalbag: 1 (locked on Holy without checking, got hit while charging)
Altima: 2 (Ow demons hurt.  Probably my fault for setting up too much for form 2, and having two 10-11 speed people who can't do much to 9 speed Altima.  Altima2 just wasn't a problem anyway; two people with status curing and healing who can keep Alma alive, means that Alma basically solos the fight).

OK, I'll do a pass on updating the tiers in the next post.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2017, 10:00:43 PM
So...I think I'm going to be upgrading mages in general, and here's the thinking.  What's the purpose of picking things near the top of the tier list?  Well...let's say you're doing a co-op with 3 people, and then the first person says "I'm mastering battle skill and taking it to Archer" and the second person says "I'm going Bard", and you're just thinking "really y'all?  Really?"  You pick something towards the top of the tier list to carry their asses.

So...yes, Priest moves up.  Oracle moves above Ninja.  (Oracle is perfectly functional with a Summon dip, and you definitely use the Oracle skillset--Spell Absorb in particular deals with MP problems that come with summon spam.  Silence Song wins some fights.  Life Drain is good if you've been hit, and kills zodiacs.  Also getting your whole team Life Drain from spillover.  Sleep locks down fights).  Wizard should move up as well (Wizard is really a weird choice to focus since there's not much you want to spend JP on, but you can be a god for the first two chapters with just Black Magic and Item, and just dip for something that ignores evade by the time enemies start wearing Ageis Shields).  Geomancer....probably not gaining the same kind of bump as Wizard--at least with Wizard, Wizard with Item is a god tier setup for nearly half the game.  With Geo, sure, you could dip for Ramuh and take it to Geo, but Geo has less MA and less MP than Priest, and obviously Geo like Wizard doesn't have much you want to spend JP on.  I get the appeal of "I want things to do after I run out of MP", but I'm not sure Geo stands that much above, say, Mediator for that (guns outdamage elemental for most of the game, and Talk Skill, while worse than Yin Yang, does indeed not cost MP).

Monk doesn't move much; was...sometimes the second best character, but only when other characters were just failing; never felt like it was carrying the party.

Samurai moves down.  Certainly below Lancer, Lancer impressed me more at most points in the game.  Below Dancer?  Hmm...possibly.  I took my Dancer to Samurai and used that to grind out Samurai JP, but I could have made my Dancer a much more helpful unit much earlier in the game by going to like...Ninja with Dance to be relevant in assassination missions, or Priest with Dance to be relevant in assassination missions and also have revival.  That said, Samurai, when all the pieces finally come together (3000 JP in Samurai, 600 JP for Teleport, 400 JP for MAU, switch to Wizard), is very strong.  Samurai will be less of an early drag than Dancer cause you can do it on Ramza.  You unlock  it earlier, and it's pretty quickly playable when you unlock it (84 damage Koutetsu or something like that).  But it's melee, with 3 move, no HP, so it's...kinda on the bad end of playable.
I guess...there is the option of dip Teleport, go to Samurai (kind-of what I did).  Or Dip Ramuh, go to Samurai (gives you a range Koutetsu--probably only enough MP for one using Wizard Robe and helmet.  Black Robe...isn't guaranteed to get you two Ramuhs, either; needs like level 20-25 depending on MP growths.  Also less damage than Wizard Robe even with Ramuh, and obviously with Draw Outs cause Samurai MA is low).  Mmm...ok, dipping Ramuh doesn't sound that great; dipping Teleport before bothering with the physical job tree sounds like an ok plan, though.  That makes Samurai not terrible when you unlock them.  Teleport + ~100 damage Koutetsu is playable, not terrible in Chapter 3.  Teleport+162 damage Muramasa is playable, not terrible in Chapter 4.  Both kinda sub-par, though.  Although given that you already have Teleport, you have the option to switch out of Samurai for a hard fight and carry the team, and switch back to finish your training later.  Yeah, ok, leaving Samurai above Dancer.

Monk Mediator Geo?  Probably still Monk at the top of these; neither Geo nor Mediator really make that much sense as a focus.

New tentative focus list:

1   ca
2   tm
3   su
4   or
5   ch
6   wi
7   ni
8   pr
9   la
10   sa
11   da
12   mo
13   me
14   ge
15   ar
16   ba
17   kn
18   th
19   sq
20   mi

I'm not entirely sure how to order Chemist, Wizard, Ninja, Priest.  Wizard makes no sense as a focus (don't you want real spells what?) but probably just kills everything until enemies start using Ageis Shields, then picks up any summon and goes back to killing everything.

Ninja makes fine sense as a focus, but I'm not sure how much they can carry a bunch of party members who are screwing around in bad classes.  (Ninja has to suck for a while when in Thief/Archer, and even once they're done sucking, they're still a glass cannon that needs to get close to deal OHKO damage, and still entirely singletarget...a quick calculation, at level 30 they deal like...286 damage with Concentrate, Thief Hat, Power Sleeve, Angel Ring, Spell Edgex2, which...is not guaranteed OHKO territory.  Dropping Concentrate for Martial Arts is also not guaranteed OHKO territory).  Ninjas are really really good at pulling their own weight, but not sure how much they can compensate for a weak team.

Chemist is where it is there partially for the "giving everyone spillover Chemist JP is really strong."  Priest is like...a bad mage, but still a mage and never has to be weak at any point, unlike Ninja, and can access multitarget, unlike Ninja.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2017, 10:36:11 PM
And...update to the dip list too.  Moving Ninja and Mediator down as a dip as I posted about several days ago.  I mean, you can use them to enhance another build, but it's pretty reasonable to just...not.

Moving Monk up a few slots on the dip list.  HP restore is pretty legit, I gained respect for it this playthrough, bad autopotion is alright, something you can get from spillover, and also in the build path of some builds (like Samurai) and not far out of the way for others (anything that needs to unlock Geo, so Ninja, Dancer, Geomancer).  I think Monk is in competition for carrying Jump (along with Ninja) cause it has good PA and ok speed.  Sometimes Ninja wants martial arts too.

Knight (for weapon guard, sometimes Equip Shield) and Mediator (for faith raising) are notable for being things that higher tier (read: mage) builds use, so there's an argument that they should be higher, but they're pretty optional/minor.  In the case of Knight...you probably won't actually job change to Knight, so rely on someone going Knight (ew) or Samurai (eh, I guess).

Oh also, moving Summoner above Wizard on the dip list.  So many builds work because "just dip Summoner for Ramuh".  A lot of builds, when they are done learning everything, want to move to Wizard and set MAU, sure.  But by the time you are doing that you probably don't need the help.  Actually, fuck it, moving Summoner above Squire too.  Notably a Priest with Summon and no Gained JP Up, managed to be my overall most consistently strong PC this past game.

new (tentative) dip list

1   su
2   sq
3   wi
4   ch
5   tm
6   or
7   pr
8   th
9   ar
10   mo
11   ni
12   me
13   kn
14   ge
15   ca
16   sa
17   la
18   ba
19   da
20   mi
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 18, 2017, 10:56:38 PM
Whew, ok, going back to respond to people now.

- How much JP will one earn over the course of a game?  Not counting spillover JP here; there's no guarantee it will be in the classes you want. 

It's...nonlinear, but about 5000?

400 or so by the end of Chapter 1.

Cumulative 1350 or so near the end of Chapter 2.

Cumulative 2400 or so near the end of Chapter 3.

Cumulative 5000 or so near the end of Chapter 4.

This is just based off rough recollections in this last playthrough of when I got to Level Jump 8, when I got to Vertical Jump 8, when I actually finished learning things in Samurai.

But the JP formula adds your class level (so sticking Lancer is not the best model).  The JP formula adds your actual level too (so class level matters less in Chapter 4 if you want a second specialization).  Also I might be overestimating Chapter 3 JP values, as obviously my Lancer was high job level through most of the chapter.

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- What about JP investments to unlock classes?  Angel Song and Nameless Dance are both useful tools and only cost 100 JP but unlocking their classes takes investing over 1000 JP (after factoring in the 100-199 JP every unit starts with in every class).  1100-1200 JP is a more likely minimum commitment since the investment is unlikely to be perfectly distributed.

Yep, those are pretty real.  My rough calculation for these is that you should expect to overshoot the JP requirements a bit, taking more actions than you need.

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- Crystals: is there in impact?  Uncooperative teammates are a thing, I guess.

Generally teammates will let you get appropriate crystals.  Like "oh, you're a Summoner, you should get that Summoner crystal".  Partly cause there's not much to be gained by stealing crystals (if you don't have the job unlocked you can't even get the skill).

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- How many classes and/or setups can use a skill well?  Ramuh is awesome and 200 JP isn't too far out of the way though needs good MA and enough MP to make use of it so mainly the five main mage classes and maybe Geomancer will get mileage from it.  Without high PA, Punch Art come out like a cherry tap and some will argue Martial Arts is needed as well.  At the other end, Item with Potion and Phoenix Down can contribute to sandbagging at worst and Time Magic for Haste and Slow can be viably wielded by many classes.  These are just examples.

Yeah, it's definitely a consideration, for sure.  Like...you don't dip for Punch Art--if you're going Monk, you do Monk focus, and then can't even take the skillset very many places (I ended up just going back to Monk).

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- Golem seems like a handy Summoner skill to have access to.  Or is it?

Oh, that's true.  Expensive (500 JP, 40 MP) but good.  Not usually a dip.

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- Shield using setups like Abondon sometimes, even if it only shines in chapter 4.

Sure, yep.  That said, Abandon falls into a category of "has much steeper unlock requirements than Auto Potion, and is not as strong"--a lot like Blade Grasp.  It's something you get if you're a focus Ninja, and maybe you use a mantle or Equip Shield.  (You can still attack twice with a shield equipped as long as you put a shield in your first hand, and your second hand unarmed; you get two punches).

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- Magic DefendUp is handy at Velius and a few other select places.  I guess offensive supports are more favored?

I think MDU for Velus is reasonable.  You'd probably only set it if you have a focus Priest, and managed to get it from spillover, but yeah, it's fine.

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- Everyone benefits from Maintenance in the three fights with Mighty Sword using opponents.  Though Math Skillers can escape without it at Rofel 2 due to AI manipulation.

True.  250 Chemist JP, though; my Chemist JP tends to be precious (like...if I'm one of the many builds that sets item, I'd probably grab X-Potion before Maintenance).

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- Pray Faith is one of those skills I never seem to want to spend JP on yet it has its uses with mage allies.

It's really good on Math Skill, since you just hit the entire battlefield with Faith.  Outside of that, though...it's a 400 JP ability in Oracle which has lots and lots and lots of good abilities.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 19, 2017, 06:59:01 AM
OK, for the focus list, the Priest/Wizard/Ninja/Chemist group...I decided to start a new run with these; 3 PCs cause it's a higher tier team.  Decided I didn't want Chemist cause they would give spillover Autopotion and that would break any semblance of challenge (indicating that yeah, Chemist is probably the best of the bunch, and maybe I should reevaluate Chemist vs Oracle).

Chapter 1 went about as you'd expect.  Wizard Good.  Priest also good.  Thief (on the way to Ninja) bad.

Chapter 2 Thief damage remained stagnant, and then Move+2 was obtained.  Move+2 combined with classes that have melee physical damage (Knight/Monk/Geo) is pretty solid.  I believe all of them were hitting close to 60 (60 for Monk 56 for Geo, I probably hit 49 with Knight cause I hadn't bought a Coral Sword yet, but with a Coral Sword would be 56 as well).

Ninja unlocked around Bariaus Valley, with Move+2 and Concentrate...and I look at my daggers (4WP and 5WP) and I unequip them since fists deal more even with Green Beret...and then I set Martial Arts instead of Concentrate.  60x2 = 120 damage.  Worth noting, however, Equip Sword would be better than Martial Arts here dealing 64x2 = 128 damage.  I'll probably try to sneak out of Ninja on easy fights to squeeze in the JP for the various competing support abilities (Equip Sword and Attack Up).  But then again, I also want to sneak out of Ninja to learn X-Potion on Chemist.

But uh yeah, 64 long range damage with balls, and 60x2 = 120 melee damage is...now a solid unit, but still third at the moment.  Wizard deals 200 with Bolt 2.  Priest is like...140 or so with Ramuh.  (Although they both have charge times and are not 8 speed units).  That being said, with all three party members having damage, Priest is actually using white magic a bunch, since someone needs to heal, and the Priest is better at it than the rest of the party.  Still busting out the Ramuh if enemies are kind enough to cluster ofc.

Playing Priest a bit more "normal" this time (using Gained JP Up, will switch out of Priest at some point and set WM secondary).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on July 17, 2017, 01:36:05 AM
More random thoughtdump because I enjoy FFT discussion that much:

Good catch with Abandon: I totally forgot about the class unlock requirements.  That was a brain fart on my part.  If one already got Move +2 and Concentrate, then sure, it's not too far off but otherwise takes a large investment.  Come to think of it, most of my Chapter 4 specials won't have Ninja or any of the other multi-class prerequisite classes unlocked in a normal, casual "anything goes" game by the end of Morund.

- If a 7 Speed unit Moves without Acting on it's first turn or vice versa, even if the 6 speed enemy moves without acting, Ramuh will still go off before its second turn.  Fun times.  My easiest Golgarand battle experience came from Priest Ramza with Magic Attack up nuking things with offensive magic.  (There was also a lucky first turn snatching of Gaf's Blood Sword, hush)

- Squire flat out sucks.  If hitting things with swords is the goal, then Geomancer does it better.  Only unique thing Squire has over Geo is Scorpion Tail jumping which, haha. (oh, and knockback but that comes into play rather rarely)

- Geomancer I feel need Rune Blade to be notable as a magic user.  So for most of the game, I find them mediocre mages.  I have run one with Time Magic secondary (and Gold Hairpin for MP) at Velius since I wanted a durable Slow and Demi caster but that's a setup for that fight specifically.  Rune Blade and Aegis Shield do outmagic Priest at certain level ranges, heh.

- As much as I value Secret Hunt normally, I suppose in this context, the main worthwhile benefits are Holy Lances (if a spear user is around) and killing undeads without giving them a chance to revive in the 3-4 battles they appear in.  Poor Thief; great speed and mobility but poor offensive stats to channel those attributes through.

- Knight gets the short straw outside of Chapter 1.  Geos are better at whacking things with swords come Chapter 3 and its abundance of PA boosting armor.  The breaks are used better by gun or bow users or Ninjas.  Being subject to Counter and getting shut down by evasion just makes things worse.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 17, 2017, 01:49:00 AM
Quote
Geomancer I feel need Rune Blade to be notable as a magic user.  So for most of the game, I find them mediocre mages.  I have run one with Time Magic secondary (and Gold Hairpin for MP) at Velius since I wanted a durable Slow and Demi caster but that's a setup for that fight specifically.  Rune Blade and Aegis Shield do outmagic Priest at certain level ranges, heh.

With Rune Blade they should outmagic Priest at any level, their multiplier is just 5% worse (= 1 point at most, often 0) and Rune Blade + Aegis Shield is 3 magic to Wizard Staff's 1. Post-Rune Blade/Aegis Shield they actually hold up well compared to any non-Wizard job for MA. I agree that they're inferior at magic until then, though sometimes you do want that bulk and/or move; heck I've run Knights with magic for that reason and legit consider it an advantage they have over e.g. Monk/Archer/Thief that their magic stats are 80/80 (as opposed to something even worse) and that they can use robes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 21, 2017, 03:20:10 PM
Yep, for the period when Rune Blade is available (last half of Chapter 4) Geos are solid users of magic.  Then again, this is also the period when Excalibur is available, if you don't have someone else using it, so sometimes Knight is a very solid option at this point too.  Like...I can certainly remember zodiac fights where I went Excalibur Knight with Life Drain, which straight up was the strongest option (better than mage classes, better than Geo).

Quote
Post-Rune Blade/Aegis Shield they actually hold up well compared to any non-Wizard job for MA.

Usually equal or sometimes 1 less MA than Summoner/Oracle/Time Mage, yeah.  They also will have something like 14-18 less MP at level 30-40, which can be pretty relevant for some specific builds.  (If your build is Short Charge Meteor, you might be out of MP after the second Meteor or even not have MP for the second Meteor so...).

(As a quick side note, if you're female and you've been going through stat growth on the mage side of the job tree, and you're equipping for magic, don't expect your physical with Rune Blade to be that exciting.  It'll deal about 84.  Which...sure, is higher than Wizard Staff which deals around 60.  Just...the main thing a mage gets out of Geo is HP, Ageis Shield evade, and move+1).

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- Squire flat out sucks.  If hitting things with swords is the goal, then Geomancer does it better.  Only unique thing Squire has over Geo is Scorpion Tail jumping which, haha. (oh, and knockback but that comes into play rather rarely)

You know, I remember Dark Holy Elf did a spreadsheet of how good each class was at physical attacks at every store checkpoint, and Squire came out overall 5th.  "Worse geo" isn't exactly a dumpter fire.  It's more of a "but why?  Why would you spend time in Squire?  There's no point!"

Quote
- Knight gets the short straw outside of Chapter 1.  Geos are better at whacking things with swords come Chapter 3 and its abundance of PA boosting armor.  The breaks are used better by gun or bow users or Ninjas.  Being subject to Counter and getting shut down by evasion just makes things worse.

Knight is niche, but still manages to come up for me more often than I expect.

If I'm a mage, I want to use a shield for one fight (Balk 1 or Balk 2 probably) and I don't have the 350 Monk JP to unlock Geo (why would I?)   Guess what? Knight gets dusted off.  (Or, if I've spent a bit of time as Knight already, I might pick up Equip Shield).  Also, Reflect Mail has some neat (very niche) applications in theory.  And obviously Excalibur is good.

It's just....very very very much a dip class, and a terrible focus class.  You switch to it for one or two fights; you don't spend a whole chapter as Knight (except maybe in Chapter 1, but even there, I feel like by the end of the chapter you shouldn't have a JP incentive to be in Knight).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on July 22, 2017, 02:14:48 AM
Quote
You know, I remember Dark Holy Elf did a spreadsheet of how good each class was at physical attacks at every store checkpoint, and Squire came out overall 5th.

*digs up the spreadsheet in question*

Seventh, actually; behind Ninja, Geomancer, Knight, Oracle, Monk, and Lancer. That said your broad point is basically correct; in particular there is a significant dropoff from #7 to #8 (which is... Mime, technically, but Mime is relatively better in chapter 1 lol so the list overrates them; otherwise Archer). And they have 4 move. They're not an AWFUL carrier just... totally outclassed by many others thanks to unimpressive stats and a terrible primary; their only niche is being a 4-move job available to units unwilling to spend any time in Monk (at which point the only other option is Thief which is a lateral move at best).


I'm always a bit leery about Excalibur hype for Knight as it often seems based on assumptions that we're playing with 5 generics (challenge runs etc.). In reality, Ramza is always in play and makes super-great use of it (its synergy with Scream is very strong). Like... if you have a build that is "mage with Excalibur" you should really just make Ramza that and get better equips/a better skillset/better MA and MP. To be sure, there are times where yes, going Knight on another build to get Excalibur is valid, but it feels very corner-case. ("Well Ramza has another build entirely AND I'm not using Orlandu or Agrias AND then Knight with Excalibur is the best setup for this particular mage/etc. in this fight.") It can happen but is worth extremely little consideration.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 22, 2017, 11:20:49 AM
So...stat values of FE Heroes explained.

Know how in some cases +Atk on say Olwen is +4 attack?  Or -HP on Robin is -4 HP?

Well, there is a stat growth table:

http://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Stat_Growth#Level_40_Stats

GP   1Icon Rarity 1.png   2Icon Rarity 2.png   3Icon Rarity 3.png   4Icon Rarity 4.png   5Icon Rarity 5.png
0   6   7   7   8   8
1   8   8   9   10   10
2   9   10   11   12   13
3   11   12   13   14   15
4   13   14   15   16   17
5   14   15   17   18   19
6   16   17   19   20   22
7   18   19   21   22   24
8   19   21   23   24   26
9   21   23   25   26   28
10   23   25   27   28   30
11   24   26   29   31   33

Basically, all characters have a stat growth value from...1-10 at neutral IVs; 0-11 with IVs.  These then supposedly use a lookup table to determine how much to increase between level 1 and level 40.

Now, if you look closely, you'll notice that 3 star is always gaps of 2 for the growth.  (IVs will change starting stats by 1 level, and growths by 1 level).  Why do 5 star units have these gaps?  Specifically the gap from 5 growth to 6 growth that a lot of people hit?

It's a multiply and round, that's why!

Formula is ROUNDUP((3starStats) x (StarMult))

Star mults are...

5 star StarMult = 10/9 = +11%
4 star StarMult = 29/28 = +3.6%
3 star StarMult = 1
2 star StarMult = 15/17 = -12%
1 star StarMult = 9/11 = -18%

4 star mult could also be 28/27.  This is ambiguous.

2 star StarMult...I honestly have to assume that there is a typo in the wiki table here, seeing as there are no IVs on 2 star units, and the 10 growth characters aren't available below 3 star.  The way the table is set up, the small growth jumps are at 1, 5, and 11.  The gap between 1 and 5 is 4.  The gap between 5 and 11 is 6.  No way to square that circle; you could alternate 4 and 5, or 5 and 6, but not 4 and 6; that is not a pattern that can be produced via multiplication and rounding.  That said, since there's no way to test the 10 growth at 2 star, I honestly suspect a typo is more likely.

You might be looking at these StarMults and thinking "wow, 3 star to 4 star is a small jump; 2 star to 3 star is a huge jump" and...that's not exactly true.  It's a ceiling function, so the jump from 3 to 4 star could be 1%, and it would still give you +1 to all stats.  (And that's just from the growths; going from 3 to 4 stars will also increase two of your starting stats--your highest two non HP stats).

I am 99% sure the calculation uses CEILING and not FLOOR or ROUND_TO_NEAREST just because of the way that 4 star growth table looks.  Although sure, obviously you can simulate any of these three functions using any of the other three by adding values before the multiply and subtracting them afterwards.  Just...I doubt it.

In practice, people care about the 5* growth point jumps, which happen at 2, 6, and 11.  The jump at 11 is pretty irrelevant (no, +HP Faye isn't a good IV.  I don't care if +HP is +4).  So...the key growth point jumps to get +4 instead of +3 are 2, and 6.  Conveniently there's a table with all growth points for all characters:

http://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Growth_Point_Table

Worth noting--Trainees have 6 more growth points, but start with lower stats (8 lower).  "Veterans" have 6 less growth points, but start with more stats (8 more).  Which means...yeah, that's right, Jagen and Gunther are actually Jagens.  They'll have 5 less BST at level 40 on average, while having 8 more BST at level 1.

If you're thinking about BST, and are looking for characters that have a 6 in every stat, look at trainees (Y.Tiki, Tobin, Nowi, Faye--the archer).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 01, 2017, 02:07:17 AM
So…  MC's old FFT drafts for hypothetical single-player-class-limited playthroughs vaguely came up again in IRC recently, and plus, in LoL, it's Worlds season, so catching up on some ESPORTS drafts there.  I did a little mini WAXF draft on the side, so…  a completely hypothetical Bravely Default draft!  (No, BD is a long enough game that hell no to ACTUALLY PLAYING one of these.)  BD does have the nice property that there's some notable synergy / anti-synergy in classes, so it's not quite "go to your in-game rankings thread and draft top to bottom."

Completely arbitrary rules:
* Everybody gets JL1-10 of Freelancer for free.  (No dopey worries about getting locked out entirely in C0-C1 from not enough early picks there, or about missing general quality-of-life passives like being reminded of how many treasure chests are around.)  You have to draft Freelancer if you want the JL11-13 stuff though, i.e. C5-8 Freelancer.
* No bans, but the last two picks go undrafted, so you aren't entirely guaranteed your pick of the chaff.  Everybody will get 11 classes this way.
* I'm assuming that you're allowed to turn off encounters for boss runs.  (Some of the MP-slurping classes get much worse if you don't, and classes like Valkyrie shoot up in value.)  I'm still assuming that a team that has major random woes is less impressive, though.


1A: Okay.  For first pick, there are basically four reasonable options IMO:
* White Mage: Early class.  Invaluable MT healing for any boss fight that goes slow (which, against some HP sponge enemies like Braev, matters), better revival than Phoenix Downs.  Even has some okay-if-MP-inefficient offense.  Resist Water for Rusalka.
* Dark Knight: The strongest class in the game?  But it's C5 & beyond only, and C0-C4 are no joke.
* Spiritmaster: Makes WM much better, but more importantly, elemental cheezing outright wins some tough battles for free (the Dragons), and makes a number of battles considerably more sane, especially for enemies that give you an elemental weakness (Bugzilla, Victor & Victoria / Ominas refights).
* Black Mage: Not at the same power tier as the above three, but it is an early class, and it's extremely good vs. Orthos (EDIT: and Heinkel).  It also unlocks C5+ mage builds with Pierce M. Def.

Let's not kid ourselves, though.  The pick is gonna be White Mage.
A: White Mage

1B: Well, looking at the above set of 4 classes, we get 2 and hand over the other.
Black Mage & Spiritmaster: Sure, go ahead and have the two best classes (DK & WM)!
Black Mage & Dark Knight: Sure, go ahead and have the WM / Spiritmaster combo!
Spiritmaster & Dark Knight: Sure, go ahead and snipe Knight / Black Mage, and subject me to some sort of horrible Monk/Thief/Freelancer challenge in C0 / C1!

None of these options are attractive.  That said, I think the DK / BM combo is the best; mass BMs can blitz out early bosses and is good for dealing with Orthos sans white magic, and DK gives the late-game kick required.

A: White Mage
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage

--
2A: Well…  Spiritmaster, obviously.  A lot of options otherwise, but Knight & Pirate come to mind.  Knight is offense early and a super-tank late that will synergize well with healing.  Pirate is better, but also C3.  Since we're missing out on magic offense, I'm thinking the Pirate debuff train is gonna be more important than usual.  So let's do that.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage

2B: B has to start thinking about potential hatedrafts of good revival / stalling.  B also wants some more C1-C2 classes since all Black Mages tends to be very binary for bosses; either they blitz them out with offense or die horribly, and Rusalka is gonna be REALLY INTENSE with no WM.  BMs also have MP woes, so it's gonna make randoms annoying.  Knight is early and is also really good for Team A, so take that, I think.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker

--
3A: I think A needs to grudgingly take Monk since Knight got sniped so that team A has some semblance of offense in C0/C1.  There's some potential hatedrafts A can do since B is stalling on mages & Spell Fencer, but…  eh, going back to things this team wants, Performer fits well the "buff/debuff/heal/smash" strat.  So take that.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate, Monk, Performer
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker

3B: Okay, B has stalled long enough at grabbing Spell Fencer.  Late game DKs are notably worse without Drain Sword, especially if B ends up running a bunch since they lack other healing, so pick that up.  B doesn't really need much more lategame classes, so…  maybe Red Mage?  Use that for healing / revival in C3 at least and pretend to have a more normal run there, maybe even C4, before switching to Medication DKs & magic.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate, Monk, Performer
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker, Spell Fencer, Red Mage

--
4A: Well, White Mages healing Monks is very one-dimensional for the early game, but the other options left are just…  uninspiring.  Thief has some nice Speed boosting passives?  Ranger has Targeting for Braev / other heavy Default users?  There's also sniping Time Mage, which while not great lategame without BMs, might still be useful for Gaia Gear earth magic.  Vampire offers a lategame carry and redundant Pirate support, and Templar has Default Guard and can be a psuedo-Knight.  I'm thinking the TM snipe (hey, magic damage that's better than WM's crappy wind in C2-C3) and Templar are the way to go here (Default Guard is useful on stally teams).

4B: Well losing TM is too bad, but eh, that just means going more all-in on lategame Dark Knights rather than Pierce M. Def Meteors.  I'm thinking that the worse healing means that dopey Ninja immunity stratz are a bit better, as well as maybe Kairi onto Knights?  Vampire also looks tempting with no Pirate for a lategame source of debuffs, and super level 4 magic better than Dark if you get the right wandering Norende beasties to go with Pierce M. Def.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate, Monk, Performer, Time Mage, Templar
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker, Spell Fencer, Red Mage, Ninja, Vampire

--
5A: Getting to cleanup now.  Sure take Thief.  Maybe Valkyrie as well?  More random clearing in late C2/C3.  This makes me feel bad about missing out on Vampire, since it's strictly better than Valk later on, but oh well.

5B: Well if we have Ninja, might as well take Swordmaster as well for that silliness.  Also pick up Arcanist for Fenrir statusing bosses hype since we have Black Mage, although by the time this really comes online, we could also be running some sort of 3x Dark Knight party.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate, Monk, Performer, Time Mage, Templar, Thief, Valkyrie
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker, Spell Fencer, Red Mage, Ninja, Vampire, Swordmaster, Arcanist

--
6A: I guess dopey Freelancer Mimic tricks can do some cool stuff with this set (Time Mage Slow World passives, etc.).  And sure, Merchant for some efficient money grinding and maybe Low Leverage if we get really desperate.

6B: Well none of Ranger, Summoner, or Conjurer are that important.  I could actually be convinced by CONJURER on Team A, with healing and potential MP woes, but not team B where we have Salve-Maker.  Summoner I guess, it's good for refights of Rusalka!  Ranger isn't even a bad class, it just doesn't have tons of synergy and the only boss fight I'd hype their skillset on is Braev really.  They're just consistently okay, while something that was usually terrible but occasionally great would be more useful for this kind of challenge.

A: White Mage, Spiritmaster, Pirate, Monk, Performer, Time Mage, Templar, Thief, Valkyrie, Freelancer (Greater), Merchant
B: Dark Knight, Black Mage, Knight, Salve-Maker, Spell Fencer, Red Mage, Ninja, Vampire, Swordmaster, Arcanist, Summoner
Unused: Ranger, Conjurer

--
I think A "wins" here with a very reliable stallfest featuring buffs, debuffs, healing, revival, and a bunch of good defensive passives (Angelic Ward, Default Guard, Speed +20%, etc.).  Orthos will be exciting, but the early game isn't THAT rocky, and they can sustain through a lot of fights.

Team B was kinda stuck by not being able to get WM, so they do make a good show of having hyper-offense teams that can just kill quickly and maybe only use the occasional choice revival, or Widen Area potion.  The gang of Drain Swording BK's with Rise from the Dead and See You In Hell is still a solid strat, though it might run into trouble for some of C7/C8's more brutal Asterisk team-up fights.  Early game will be exciting but if you don't have WM, having BM is the next best option IMO for maybe not needing it.  And if you're really bored, some bosses can just get plain Utsusemi cheeze'd out, so there's always that for avoiding the need for good MT healing.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 01, 2017, 05:36:02 AM
Ooh, interesting. I'll probably look over this more with time.

First thought: as always with any of these drafts, there's a bit of a question of how we what the goal of each team is. Less resets is always desirable, but beyond that... fewest overall turns? Fewer random encounters (similar to the previous but without rewarding faster completion of boss fights)? I assume the goal is to defeat Ouroburos, too, though that should probably be stated (game's much faster if we can get the other ending, and jobs that only exist lategame would suffer in that case); I notice you mention C7-8 asterisk boss fights and I'm sitting here going "why on earth would a draft fight those" so if there are any secondary objectives those should probably be stated too.

Second thought: Heinkel is an asshole, and you probably never noticed because you used Black Mage. But seriously that fight is hell without Black Mage (he has two allies who he will cover from any physical attacks, so you can't kill them without magic); I know Magey tried to beat him with just White Mage and gave up; I did beat him with Monks but it took a little grinding and a few resets. So... for that reason alone (though also making sure he or she has non-shit offence as soon as possible, I really think player A must grab Knight as one of his or her second picks. Probably instead of Pirate, they're too similar, and Pirate's niche can be filled by other jobs easily enough (e.g. Performer, Vampire, Time Mage; there's also a lategame katana that mimics one of their best skills). This obviously has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the draft which I'm not sure about yet.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on October 01, 2017, 07:18:28 AM
Same as your FF5 job rankings, really.  "Don't reset", "don't have a high RNG factor that leads to sometimes resets", "require less grinding" (bonus credit for being able to LLG dash to the boss and still win with no encounters in a game like BD!  Penalty if a boss is super-hard and requires lots o' grinding above and beyond normal play!), and so on.  And yeah, assumption is "get the final post-C8 ending."  I'd certainly consider a team that was able to take all the asterisk fights in C6-C8 better than one that can't, for all that the rewards are low enough that it'd be optional flavor....  those are among the hardest battles in the game so they're a good sanity check of the max power of a team.  (i.e. my goal is more "be awesome and powerful and able to take whatever the game can throw at you" than "speedrun to the final" IMO, which would render these matches irrelevant.  YMMV.)

I agree that Heinkel is gonna be hard, but how would drafting Knight help?  You get it after the fight, not before!  (For all that I agree that Knight is a perfectly reasonable option for A's third pick for other reasons.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 01, 2017, 08:01:30 AM
Oh yeah, I derped there. Man, that makes Team A want Monk a fair bit, which is funny given that the job usually isn't rated too highly. Probably not enough to go with Monk as a second pick though... I guess having a Freelancer/WM mix isn't THAT much worse than a Monk/WM mix. Funny how it is worth thinking about though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on October 01, 2017, 08:15:44 AM
Quote
Late game DKs are notably worse without Drain Sword, especially if B ends up running a bunch since they lack other healing, so pick that up.

Wellll... keep in mind Drain Sword can be itemcast through the Blood Sword once you do Vampire Castle. Of course that's behind a six-dragon sidequest chain so it depends how we feel about that. Drain Sword does put in good work midgame regardless though, and the elementals are solid too, so I don't think Spell Fencer is a bad pick or anything.

Vampire probably should go later. Like... there's a case to not take DK in the first three picks as you noted, and it's all due to the availability. Vampire is that, but both later (effectively) and not nearly as good. Debuffs are nice, but... again, remember one of the key debuffs (attack) is covered by a universally available sword which you get around the same time as Vampire, give or take, and a second (speed) isn't available to Vampire at all. B should take Valkyrie over it solely for Thundaga Sword Crescent Moon being super-potent against Rusalka (plus random-sweeping pre-DK). Team A has a little more use for it since no DK gives Vampire's physical MT more of a niche, but still shouldn't take it with its first seven picks or anything.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 15, 2018, 09:42:32 AM
So..I've been thinking about 5e a bunch recently.  Most of this has been relatively straightforward stuff, but one angle I've been thinking along is full on thought experiment.

So...the concept goes like this: you're making a build, and must take at least one level in each class (each PHB class).  It's a subject I've seen discussed before, but there's a new sourcebook out now (Xanathar's Guide to Everything).

The core of it has not changed.  You need five stats at 13 or above to meet multiclassing requirements, which means there's two obvious options for stat arrays.  (Vanilla human seems to be the way to go).

14/14/14/13/13/13  (14s probably going to CON/DEX/WIS, although the last spot is flexible)

16/14/13/13/13/10 (where the 10 has to go in CON)

There are 12 classes, which means 12 of your levels are 100% locked.  This gives you about 8 levels to play with.  Your final HP (before adding in CON modifiers and other equipment) will be in the range of 97-124 (97 being taking level 1 in Wizard, and all your extra levels in Wizard.  124 being taking level 1 in Barbarian, and all your extra levels in Barbarian).

You will have at least 5 levels of full spellcaster progression (up to level 3 spell slots) and at most 13 levels of full spellcaster progression (up to level 7 spell slots) but your highest level spell slot will always be at least 2 levels higher than your highest level spell known.

In other words, it's good to have some kind of plan for what to upcast or do with higher level spell slots.  That said, finding decent up-cast options isn't too hard.  Warlock spells offer some solid upcast options, since both Armor of Agathys and Hellish Rebuke are designed to work well with upcasting.  On top of this, Magic Missile is pretty good to upcast if you have the Hexblade Warlock's curse on the target (76 damage with no save or prevention mechanism.  108 if you also manage to cast the Hex spell on the target, although this takes two bonus actions and requires learning Hex when you probably want both Armor of Agathys and Hellish Rebuke and only know two Warlock spells at level 1).  Anyway, point is, you'll have some solid uses for spell slots even if you don't plan ahead.

Cantrips are obviously going to be good if singletarget damage is a goal, being something that scales with player level and not class level.  But not all cantrips are created equal.  Booming Blade/Green Flame Blade where you get the full damage will be around 40 damage.  Eldritch Blast from 20 CHA with Agonizing Blast if the beams hit will be around 40 damage.  A vanilla cantrip like Firebolt will be around 20 damage.  It's also worth noting that multi-hits have value.  The Hexblade's Curse adds 24 damage to Eldritch Blast (assuming all beams hit).  The Hex Spell adds 14 damage.  Booming Blade having fewer hits is a real downside to it due to comboing off less.

Another thing that's quite good with Cantrips is quicken metamagic.  Lets you cast a spell and a cantrip in the same turn (or two cantrips).

Now...magic items, we do need to factor these in.  We are assuming level 20 characters.  Looking in the DMG I see tables to roll on for loot.  Based on DMG stuff I'm going to say the following.  Yeah, I know there's no spell shops etc, but if you want an uncommon item, you can probably get it.  You're a level 20 character, the loot tables for treasure hoards involve rolling multiple times on table F (uncommon items) starting at challenge level 0, uncommon items take like...4 days to craft according to the DMG.  Like...yeah, if a level 20 character wants an uncommon item they can probably get it.  On top of this...if there's lots of different items that do similar things (like +1 +2 +3 versions) I'm going to assume you won't have +3 across the board, but on average your stuff will probably be +2.  So...assume middle of the road rare options are almost guaranteed to be obtainable when there's lots of similar equipment.

What does this mean for character building?  Shields are good (+2 shield is +4 AC, plan accordingly).  Attunement is a real issue, and a real advantage of physical builds (+2 weapon does not require attunement, +2 rod of the Pact Keeper or Wand of the War Mage does).  Instrument of the Bards makes the skill check on Bard skills harder, so that's a real advantage for Bard.  Since there's lots of strength setting stuff, the rare option is available (Belt of Hill Giant Strength, set to 21 strength).  Headband of Intellect is uncommon, so that's available (set to 19 INT).  The CON version...no...it shows up as rare it has a single entry in table G, and there's no variants.  There's a couple CON+2 items, though, so...Belt of Dwarvenkind if you'd like.

And then a smattering of other stuff that you might want to attune.  Probably some spare rare wands lying around if you want them (wand of fireballs, wand of paralysis, wand of lightning bolts etc).  Probably some rare attunement weapons if you want those (Flametongue, Sun Blade).  And various defensive utility things you might want to use attunement on (Ring of Protection for +1 AC and all saves; Mantle of Spell Resistance for advantage vs magic; winged boots to fly; etc).  You also probably want to save at least one attunement slot for mystery super special legendary items (don't plan your build around it, but assume you're basically working with 1-2 attunement slots if your build really needs uncommon/rare items attuned).

(In other news, medium vs heavy armour is really not a decision worth putting much thought into as long as DEX is 14.  Heavy Armour can be 1 extra AC if you have 15 STR, but you lose the ability to rage, but raging prooobably wasn't important to your gameplan anyway with cantrips being so good).

Anyway...builds...I kind of assume you're going to want to go deep in a small number of classes...and the really funny thing is that this tends to start looking like 10th level builds.  Going 8 in one class, 2 in another, or 6 in one class, 4 in another are good ways to get 2 ASIs (or 3 ASIs with Figther).  This means you can only reach 18 in one stat if you start with 14 CON, or 20 in one stat if you start with 10 CON.  Going from 14 to 10 CON is like a drop from 140 HP to 100 HP, it's pretty big.  If you were actually a god of damage, maybe that would be a reasonable trade.  (Spoiler alert: you won't be a god of damage).

Full glass cannon build would be like...focusing on Eldritch Blast...20 CHA, 10 CON, Shadow Sorcerer 8, Warlock 2.  Shadow Sorc lets you cast Darkness and see through your own darkness, so hey, that's nice, no need to waste an invocation on it.  Attune Rod of the Pact Keeper (+2) and Wand of the War Mage (+2) cause technically they stack for +4 to hit!

Needless to say going full glass cannon is probably not good.  Fighter 8, Warlock 2 or Fighter 6, Warlock 4 lets you get 20 CHA, 14 CON.  The Eldritch Knight 7th level ability is interesting here; let's you make a weapon attack (probably with a hand crossbow) after you Eldritch Blast.  But I...think shields for +4 AC is probably better.  I think there's a real argument for Samurai here--the focal feature of Samurai doesn't do much, but proficiency in Wisdom saves is a big big deal.

But among Eldritch Blast builds, I think there's some merit to being Paladin 8, Warlock 2, 18 CHA, 14 CON.  Follow your party around and give them Paladin Auras.  Having a ranged move in Eldritch Blast is good when it lets you stick close to your party.

Cleric Builds...I think are a pretty standard 18 WIS, 14 CON, and just leaning on the fact that Clerics get a lot of spells that are worth up-casting (Spiritual Weapon, Spirit Guardians).  And other spells that are a few spell levels earlier than other classes (Revivify) so are easier to squeeze into the build.  Tempest specifically stands out as having a good setup for upcasting (maximize spells scale very well for upcasting, even when they are like...shatter).  Cantrip wise it's Booming Blade, but they do get to add d8 to their weapon attacks, so that's something.  Granted, a Divine Soul Sorcerer can pick up all the good Cleric spells while building CHA, but misses out on the channel divinity which works well with upcasting.

Wizard Builds...so this gets weird.  The existence of Headband of Intellect at uncommon pushes you towards CON builds, ending up with 18 CON, and 19 INT from the weapon.  Or 16 CON and a feat (like Inspiring Leader to give your whole party +21 temp HP after every short rest).  Not entirely sure on school (Necromancer, War Mage, Diviner, and Transmuter (CON save!) are probably the competition for a human with 6th level traits).  So...you'll be pretty durable cause of raising CON, and a pretty high variety toolbox cause Wizard.  You probably do also need Belt of Hill Giant Strength if you want to actually hit enemies with Booming Blade, which fills out our attunement plans.

Rogue.  Sneak Attack with Booming Blade?  (Sneak Attack adds about 17.5 at level 9 Rogue, which...exists I guess.  Although if going this route I think you might want to take Paladin 2 for Smites, which means 14 damage damage sneak attacks).

Bards.  Bards have the instruments of give me advantage on my stuff.  Pretty sure Lore Bard is going to outclass other options here (at 6th level can take the best scaling spells from any spell list).  Being Cha means they can pick up Eldritch Blast too.  Can only go Bard 9, though--can't get magical secrets at 10.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on July 02, 2018, 07:05:01 AM
I'm going to go a little bit weird and stretching the definition of meta here, but it links back to DND, so it still kind-of applies.

So...lately I've been on an ancient history binge ever since I saw bill wurst's (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCn8ux2gbs) video.  One aspect I started looking into was how 50,000 years ago, there were several different species of human living on the planet.  Such as...

Homo Floresiensis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_floresiensis), which has been nicknamed the Hobbit.  About 3 ft tall, lived on a small island in indonesia.  Becoming smaller is a trait common in animals that change habitat to a small island, so it's not too surprising it happened.  But...wow, so like hobbits are real.  Cool.

And this got me thinking a little bit about D&D, and how last D&D game I was in, everyone shunned the stereotypical tolkienesque races like dwarves and elves and halflings, and instead went for Catpeople and Ratfolk and Aasimars and Kitsune.  Why would you want to be a very minor variation on humans?

Well, turns out minor variations on humans that are still the same species are...pretty historically accurate.

Homo Neanderthalensis is the well-known one to famously live alongside humans, of course.  Similar brains, berried their dead.  But they had a different habitat (Homo Sapiens lived in Africa at first, Neanderthals lived in Europe and northern central Asia).  And due to their different habitat they were adapted for the cold.  (Shorter, thicker, more hairy).  Yeah, know what D&D race this sounds a lot like?  Dwarves.  They even have wide flat noses commonly associated with pop culture dwarves.

Denisovan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denisovan#Interbreeding) So...I don't want to say too much about Denisovans, they've only found a single finger bone.  But one thing they (and Neanderthal) both confirm is the half-types.  In D&D Half-Elf or Half-Orc.  Denisovans interbred with both Neanderthals and Homo Sapiens.  Can't say too much about what D&D race they might correspond to, other than how their genome manifests in modern humans (seems to provide a better immune system to polynesians, and help the Tibetans survive at high altitudes with little oxygen).  Better disease immunity and not needing as much oxygen doesn't really have a D&D equivalent.  Although thematically D&D elves have vaguely similar themes (a bunch of immunities, and don't need to sleep).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 15, 2018, 05:17:02 AM
So...hearthstone has a deck referred to as APM priest, so named because it takes a lot of actions to do the combo, and Hearthstone has about a 1 minute turn limit.  It's hard enough that someone made a simulator to practice it, and shared it on reddit:

https://patashu.github.io/Combo-Priest-Simulator/

I started playing around with this, and also talked to people on Reddit about the theoretical limits of the deck (if there was no timer, could you do X?)  This eventually led me to making a puzzle, and then seeing some new tricks I hadn't thought of in the first puzzle, making a second puzzle:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/978y7z/ridiculous_impractical_norope_apm_priest_lethal/

So...Hearthstone has multiple constraints.  10 cards in hand (any extra will be destroyed) and 7 creatures on board (any extra can't be summoned) and this puzzle is tuned very specifically to these numbers.  But it also uses several tricks that weren't showing up in the normal combo.

Trick #1: double layer recursion.  Ordinarily the combo would only ever have 1-2 of the creature "Test Subject" around at a time.  You'd make a copy, kill the copy, and then cast a bunch of spells, and repeat.  This can't go on forever, because every time it returns more spells, and eventually it will return so many spells that it doesn't return the spell you need to continue the combo (topsy turvy).  One of the big innovations is to, instead of keeping 1-2 test subjects, keep 3 test subjects.  So...cast a spell copying one test subject, lets say it and its copy would now return 4 spells.  Next, cast a spell on the copy, now there's one test subject with 4 spells it returns, and two test subjects with 5 spells they return.  Pop one of the higher number ones, and then later copy one of the higher number ones again, until you hit the cap.

This way, instead of getting back 1+2+3+4+5+6+7 spells, you get back (2+3+4+5+6+7)+(3+4+5+6+7)+(4+5+6+7)+(5+6+7)+(6+7)+(7) spells.

Why not do triple or quadruple layer recursion?  Well, cause you don't have the board space for that.

Trick #2, divine spirit less, and get rid of divine spirit early to clear up space.  So...this combo is known for using a card called divine spirit, which doubles your health (and then flipping health into attack).  But you just don't need to cast this very many times.  Player health starts at 30 in Hearthstone, so if you cast Divine Spirit 5 times, that gets you from 1 to 32.  All you need.

You definitely don't need it on every test subject, so don't use it on one of the main-line test subjects.

But you also need to get it out of your hand before you start hitting the hand limit, so you might as well use it on the first big branch of test subjects.

Trick #3, saving 1/1 boars

So...the enemys blocking the way are a pretty specific unit--Void Lords, which are 3/9 taunts, that split into three 1/3 taunts BUT, BUT your enemy is also restricted by only having 7 minions on board.  So if you kill a 3/9 when their board is full, they only get one 1/3 instead of three 3/3s.

Now, one thing in this puzzle that I did was make your number of power/toughness flips extremely limited (only one), so once you flip your boar from 1 attack 16 health to 16 health 1 attack, you can't flip anything else, which means you can't get new spells.  This means the absolute maximum you can have in hand is...well the puzzle starts you with two dead cards, so 8 total spells, one of which is Topsy Turvy, so 7 spells that can copy the 16/1 charge minion (once we count the original minion that's 8 attacks of 16 power).

But we have to kill the 3/9s first right?  Otherwise they'll spawn three minions with the extra board space.  And once we kill all of them then we still have seven minions we have to attack.  So we are forced to use our 16 attack boars on 1/3 taunts, and not the 3/9 taunts.  Gosh, that sucks.

Or...are we forced to do this?

So...the cool innovation that I didn't even think of (which is why I ended up posting a second puzzle) is that at that point, you're at the very very end, you've wiped off all the test subjects from the board, which means you have two whole more board spaces opened up.  Wow, two.  What can we do with those?  Save some 1/1 boars in those spots.  Long before any of this happens, use some other 1/1 boars to lower some existing void walkers from 1/3 to 1/1.  Then we use the 16/1s to attack two of the 3/9s, and ~~after those are gone~~ use the 1/1s to kill the now 1/1 void walkers.

Trick #4, the extra divine spirit is a red herring

I needed a tiny bit extra for this verison of the puzzle to work, so I added an extra divine spirit, which I knew would trip people up.  If you're used to this combo, you see a divine spirit you put it on a test subject, this is intuitive.  But hand space is so tight that test subjects returning two divine spirits means that you would get 2+2 divine spirits back from test subjects, which is 4.  But if you instead only cast one divine spirit on the test subject and the other one on the boar, then you free up hand space to get an extra divine spirit back from the test subject (3 DSs from test subjects) and you also cast one DS on the boar.  So...1+3 = 2+2 = 4.

Honestly, kind of a dirty cheap trick, not even that deep, but it got someone who fully understood the other three tricks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 25, 2019, 06:54:01 PM
D&D 5e

So a few years ago in this topic, Elfboy and I had a debate over taking Great Weapon Master as the first ASI instead of taking +2 strength; (Great Weapon Master being the ability that lets you take -5 to hit for +10 damage).

Me arguing the average damage was higher, Elfboy arguing that added consistency was worth slightly lower damage.

And...I was not sure how to handle consistency in D&D.  Like...everything in D&D is random.  Everyone can miss.  The damage you deal is ramdom.

Well I’m taking a stab at measuring consistency with an enormous ugly spreadsheet.  Calculations are in progress but early results are here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/3d6/comments/aun56y/reanalyzing_gwm/

(Spoilers: Early results suggest Elfboy has a point).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: NotMiki on February 25, 2019, 11:29:34 PM
It's fascinating trying to get at the assumptions that underpin the utility of this sort of calculation.  How sure of enemy AC can you be?  How sure of enemy HP can you be?  Are the situations where GWM is the better choice common scenarios?  How does GWM fare when you make certain assumptions about the rest of your party - like for example that you already have a consistent source of less damage?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 26, 2019, 12:46:07 AM
I’ve also genuinely got a problem that I’m not calculating all the things I want to calculate.

Like...basline if you can imagine two attacks, one that deals 20 damage with 50% accuracy, and one that deals 10 damage with 100% accuracy, obviously they both deal the same average damage, but also obviously the 100% to hit one is better.

This calculation captures some of why it’s better.  If you have an enemy with 30 HP, you’d rather have the 100% attack and kill in three turns on average.

But I would argue it’s also better against the 40 HP enemy.  In some games it wouldn’t be, in like in a sufficiently hard roguelike you might prefer a high risk effect.  But in D&D where a party death is a permanent loss of character, you want the more reliable result.

But I’m not sure where to measure that.  I already have numbers for how often each build kills within X attacks.  Intuitively I’m now eyeballing 80% chance to kill as maybe a good measuring stick (if you can imagine a 20 HP enemy, the random character would have a 75% chance to kill by turn 2, so...should be higher than 75% I think).

But my issue is that 80% odds of killing by turn X is just a number I pulled out of my ass.  I feel like it should be maybe one standard deviation...but that’s 68% so...not enough.  Or two standard deviations, but that’s...actually pretty extreme.  Like...if you have GWM and want to have your 5th percentile performance of killing be as good as possible you should basically not activate your -5 to hit for +10 damage at all, which also feels weird and probably not correct either.

80% feels about right, but it’s literally just a made up bullshit number.

EDIT or...is it.  68% for one standard deviation cuts off both ends.  But we’re looking for only the bad performing end not the high performing end.  Since we’re only interested in the poor end, we can look at 84% chance to kill (one standard deviation where only the bad end of the standard deviation is a serious concern).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 07, 2020, 08:04:57 AM
Alright, so Laggy and I played a playthrough of Vanilla FFT with the following restrictions:

(EDIT: made a bunch of edits this morning, Jan 7 2020).

1. Each class had three banned skills (supposed to be the three strongest skills)
2. (also just outright banned Ramza's special squire class).


We thought some builds might be too prevalent (like black magic in chapter 1), so we had an extra rule that no two characters could have the same secondary, and no two characters could have the same primary.  (So e.g. you could have two people at most with black magic, one wizard, and one person with black secondary).

We also did this fairly low level (like lower than level 18 before riovanes).


Here's the ban list we used on our first attempt, and then some commentary on the list:


- Basic Skill: Accumulate, Gained JP Up, Move+1
- Item: Potion, Phoenix Down, Auto Potion (This was probably a mistake, should be X-Potion instead of Potion banned)
- Battle Skill: Speed Break, Weapon Guard, Equip Shield (This was probably a mistake.  Should ban Equip Sword over Speed Break)
- Charge: Concentrate, Charge+2, Charge+3 (This was probably a mistake.  Should probably ban arrow guard and Jump+1 and not touch Charge)
- White Magic: Raise, Magic DefenseUP, Holy
- Black Magic: Bolt 2, Flare, Magic AttackUP
- Punch Art: Earth Slash, HP Restore, Martial Arts
- Steal: Steal Heart, Secret Hunt, Move+2 (This was probably a mistake.  Should ban Jump+2 and unban Steal Heart).
- Yin-Yang Magic: Life Drain, Silence Song, Defense UP
- Time Magic: MP Switch, Short Charge, Teleport
- Jump: Level4 Jump, Level5 Jump, Level8 Jump
- Elemental: Hell Ivy, Kamaitachi, Attack UP (We definitely messed up here--should have banned Counter Flood)
- Talk Skill: Invite, Praise, Preach
- Summon Magic: Shiva, Ramuh, Ifrit
- Throw: Abandon, Sunken State, Two Swords
- Draw Out: Kiyomori, Kikuchimoji, Blade Grasp
- Math Skill: CT, Level, Height
- Sing: Angel Song, Nameless Song, Move+3
- Dance: Wiznaibus, Slow Dance, Nameless Dance

Commentary on these:

Basic Skill: GJPU and M+1 are obvious.  Accumulate probably isn't the third strongest move, but Laggy was just annoyed at the people who sit in a corner accumulating and swear by that as the fastest way to grind.  (Counter Tackle is probably the third most relevant ban here, but Counter and hammedo are unbanned so whatever).
Item: PDown+AutoPoption are obvious.  Potion is a weird choice, but potion as a secondary is still a secondary that lots of people would just slap in chapter 1, and item is much more of an earlygame skillset now without PDown.  After some debate, we're thinking X-Potion is probably the right hit here, though.  With all other support abilities nuked, Throw Item is basically a free slot.  And despite thinking Item was dead, we did have someone running Item with X-Potions at endgame.  Item with just X-Potion was pretty relevant on Ninja, which was on the strong side.  Item is still a reasonable pickup for mages who want things to do when they run out of MP.  In Chapter 1 regular Potion is strong buuuut Black Magic is stronger, so X-Potion may actually be the right ban.
Battle Skill: Weapon Guard and Equip Shield absolutely belong here; they'd be used on lots of characters if legal.  Speed Break probably doesn't; it's capable of doing some silly things with zodiac bosses, but you could also just...kill the bosses.  Equip Sword or Equip Armour might belong in this slot--Equip Sword is a decent damage boost to Ninjas who use bracers (like about as good as Attack Up).  Equip Armor is a big HP boost to monks.  At the moment Ninjas are looking like maybe even still a problem class and Monks are sketchy so Equip Sword to target Ninjas is probably correct.
Charge: Concentrate is obvious.  On further debate we're thinking it was incorrect to not ban Arrow Guard (which we allowed the first go through) as it's looking like a super premium reaction compared to other reactions available, and pretty accessible even to mages.  So the debate is between Jump+1 and hitting the charge skillset, and Jump+1 came up on a bunch of characters whereas the charge skillset was always a temporary thing and not the long term skillset.
White Magic: Holy is obious.  Raise...we know from LFT that if PDown is banned, everyone will just jam raise, so it was an obvious target.  MDefUp...the fear was that if it was allowed, everyone would run it lategame (and our lategame was like 4x maintenance even in fights without equipment breaking, so...yeah, 100% it would be run).
Black Magic: MAU is obvious.  There was a desire to cripple the early game power of black magic, but without banning all three of fire/ice/bolt that wasn't really happening.  So...instead Bolt 2 (for being 10 MP, and also weakens thunder rod setups in general).  And then Flare--it just had the biggest impact of a ban; mathskillable, the only non-elemental damage in the skillset, maybe the best assassination spell now that all the better options were banned.
Punch Art: Earth Slash is obvious.  Martial Arts is good even on non Punch Art users, but removing it also just cripples punch art setups cause you can't really leave monk.  We were just not that worried about dedicated monks after those cuts, so HP Restore as their best (budget) reaction was the third cut.
Steal: Move+2 is obvious.  Secret Hunt officially bans chantage shenanigans (instead of just being informally banned) so sure, why not.  Steal Heart is what we banned, but that was almost certainly incorrect as several characters grinded Jump+2 from unlocking things, whereas Steal Heart would be temporary.  Jump+2 is probably the correct ban.
Yin Yang: Life Drain is obvious.  Defence Up is here for the same reason as MDU: all the good support abilites are banned so everyone would use it.  Silence Song...this is the slot that's fairly debatable.  Situational, but very strong when it's good.  Whereas the rest of the options are...ok.  Sleep could cripple people who invest deep into YYM, but banning Life Drain already does that.  Move MP Up is a possibility, but I only ended up getting it on one of my mages.
Time Magic: Teleport is obvious.  Short Charge...banning has a huge impact, yes, so sure.  MP Switch would probably go on every physical setup if it was allowed (especially if Move MP up wasn't banned).  This does leave Haste legal, and it's pretty good, but it still takes a skillset slot.
Jump: Yeah, three highest jumps, now capped at jump 3.  Fairly obvious.
Elemental: Attack Up is obvious.  We really should have set Counter Flood here, as with all the other reactions banned it kind-of became the go-to for a lot of characters and was quite good.
Talk Skill: Invitation is obvious.  Praise makes sense to me; just...brave is good on everyone, and technically with no way to raise brave you disable some busted strategies.  There was some debate about Solution vs Preach.  Eh, not sure which is right still; I expected lategame magic to be worth doing, but it did fall off kind-of hard due to lack of short charge, but high faith is still desirable for support skills like haste and raise 2.  Also math skill.  Yeah, Preach ban is probably fine.
Summon: Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit Obvious.  So...Titan can kind-of stand-in for Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit, but it's also earth damage, so can't boost it with ice rods or thunder rods, and also means the multitude of chapter 4 enemies that float or have earth clothes really puts a damper on Titan.  And then the lack of short charge limits the rest of the skillset.
Throw: Yeah, you can't really impact the throwing all that bad; ball would be annoying I guess, but you'd substitute shurikens.  So all the relevant RSM instead (Abandon, Sunken State, Two Swords).
Draw Out: Kikuichimoji is obvious.  We quickly ended up agreeing on Blade Grasp since all the other strong reactions were out.  Which leaves Kiyomori vs Muramasa.  You could substitute Heaven's Cloud for Muramasa,  though, unlike Kiyomori which was unique and good.
Math Skill: So...with 4 bans you could blank the skillset.  Only 3 bans, so no.  EXP just seemed like the weakest thing to let through (Much harder to control).  Ended up feeling pretty random--when the EXPs linked up it felt great, but sometimes you could only like...haste a single party member or status a single enemy.
Sing: Move+3 and Angel Song seem obvious.  Nameless Song was our best guess for third best.  I guess Angel Song could be debated with MP Switch being banned, but it is the best MP restoration in the game for MP heavy parties.
Dance: The three obvious ones (Nameless, Wiznaibus, and Slow).



The characters we did:

Agrias with nothing from Holy Knight banned but all other restrictions in place.  (Laggy wanted to see how weak or strong she was relative to nerfed generics).  She was strong and carried the party, threw balance a little out of wack.

Ninja performed well when it got to Ninja.  Unlocking is always a pain of course.  Really worth noting that all the move skills are banned (Move+1, Move+2, and Move+3) Concentrate is banned, it's a lot worse than normal.  These all hurt.  But the class still seemed solid.

Samurai Ramza.  No Kikuichimoji and the massive lack of movement abilities mean that movement was a problem.  Although was still strong and one of the few ways to bypass evasion.

Summoner, that detoured for Move MP-Up:  Carried through the first half of the game.  Fell off super hard in chapter 4.  I got Odin, but 9 ctr no short charge just isn't good enough, and so many enemies in Chapter 4 immune or absorb earth.  Ended up going to Time Mage as carrier over Wizard so we could keep haste in the party, and ended up just using a lot more Time Mage moves than summons towards the end of the game in general (haste, slow, demi).

Calculator: underperformed just due to JP shortages.  Didn't unlock calculator until the start of chapter 4.  (I typically hit end of chapter 2 caulculator with Gained JP up).  And then needed to bail before getting all my skills cause the game was going to end.  (Got EXP, 5, and 4, did not get 3, Prime, or Damage Split).  Kind-of a product of not having Gained JP Up and doing no propositions or randoms.  In a group that grinded more this would not be an issue.  Overall math skill was...pretty random.  Sometimes the exps would line up perfectly, and it was like fairly god mode.  And sometimes I'd just like...haste two of my characters and one enemy ninja.

The calculator also started off as Priest and rushed Raise 2 as its big expenditure from the 550 JP in Priest required to unlock Calc.  It felt...worthwhile to have one raiser, but with no holy in the skillset, and so much of the JP invested in the skillset sunk into Raise 2, it wasn't always correct to even set white magic.  It got slotted for longer grindfest maps where an early death could otherwise cause a wipe, and black magic got used otherwise.

Black Magic falling off in Chapter 4 isn't news to anyone (gets evaded, now also lacks flare) but it still was pretty consistently not bad, often a fallback move for characters with other skillsets (the summoner using level 1 spells when Titan's 5 CTR was too slow.  The Samurai using Ice 2 when out of range).  Was still all around very good in Chapters 1-2 and most of chapter 3.  (Chapter 3 does have some enemies with Ageis Shields or White Robes which kind-of brick black magic, but I was often running white magic in those fights, so that weakness didn't really come up).

Other thoughts:

RSM was very very weak.  Jump+2, Maintenance, Counter Tackle.  These were all set by multiple people at some point.  We ended up deciding Counter Flood was way too good given everything else that we had banned.  Bypassing evasion is definitely a premium here.

This had knock-on effects on what classes we cared about.  Geomancer being one of the only 4 move classes was a go-to class as a carrier.  At one point (because we weren't allowing ourselves two of any class such as Geomancer) we actually had Agrias as an Equip Sword Thief just to have two characters with 4 move (Thief ended up being not durable enough, but that's how desperate we were for move).  Equip Shield being gone also made the classes with shields matter a little more.

Builds not tested:

Lancer: Initially, the thought was that it would be too hurt, with level Jump 3 as the max.  But really, it's probably actually fine.  One of the few ways to bust through evasion that isn't banned with Concentrate being gone.

Monk: We're kind-of up in the air on this one.  No Earth Slash is pretty bad, no martial arts is pretty unfortunate if you want to go anywhere.  But you do get Revive and Chakra.  And Wave Fist gives you range.  Will struggle with breaking evasion lategame.  You could also (and would) use Equip Armour for a helmet, with basically no opportunity cost because there's almost no other relevant support abilities left.  So...Monk is probably an ok tank with revival options.

Oracle: I'm not entirely sure--they're known for being swiss army knives, but Life Drain was also kind of the solution to a lot of problems like enemies without evade, needing to heal themselves, killing zodiacs.  Take away Life Drain and they are hurting.  (Dedicated oracles are fine with losing silence, they have other backups like berserk, but losing life drain really opens up holes in their skillset).

Mediator: Talk Skill exists, Mimic Daravon and Solution are both out there.  Didn't mess with any of those on this run.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on January 08, 2020, 01:24:09 AM
I'm a bit surprised you didn't ban Equip Gun over Preach/Solution, neither of which feels remotely broken to me if you allow the player to farm generics at the start of the game, 40 faith is "low enough" for many purposes and 70 faith is already pretty good offensively (80 is better, but taking ~20 actions to get there is bleh). Being able to hand out solid ITE ranged damage seems pretty potent especially with most other support abilities gone, and especially if you steal from Balk and/or the Goland chemist.

Magic Defence Up I was initially skeptical about but your reasoning makes sense, with pretty much every premium support being banned it would start looking really good.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Laggy on January 08, 2020, 02:26:26 AM
It's a fair argument - I spent time in Chemist getting Item for the Ninja and viewed it very favorably, especially using Mythril Gun right as it became available. Definitely felt strong. But it's also 750 JP in Mediator, a job that feels pretty bad to hang out in for that long. Still, you might be right that it's about as much effort as Faith raising; depends on how much you would place value on long term Math Skill performance in a theoretical DD postgame setup. I'm a bit dismissive of bothering to steal spellguns as a kneejerk so I didn't consider that angle, but yeah it's there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 08, 2020, 05:14:43 AM
Hm, yeah, I was wondering if we were underselling Equip Gun.

It's a big investment (750 JP for Equip Gun, and for elemental guns 600 JP for Steal Weapon, not necessarily on the same character).  But that just means it needs to be part of a planned build.

Among the builds we did...

Ninja: lolno

Agrias: lolno

Summoner (Time Mage with Summon secondary): TBH, getting Odin was kind-of a failure, came too late and enemies were too fast so...sure: maybe skip Odin and get Equip Gun instead.  Loses 1 MA from swapping out Wizard Staff, but I think Equip Gun could make the character better overall; often she just couldn't even cast Titan due to 5 ctr being too slow.  (Even a 64 damage Mithril Gun would probably make the setup stronger).  Although...as far as "skip Odin and get X instead" options, there was also Half of MP as an option--maybe Equip Gun was stronger than Half of MP though.

Samurai (Wizard with draw out): I mean...probably wouldn't give up Wizard Rod for just a Mithril Gun, but an elemental gun hypothetically?  yeah, probably.  Draw Out Wizards need range help, and they can afford to sac a little melee power to get better range moves.  That said...Samurai is pretty JP hungry, I don't really think the build had time to get 750 Mediator JP.  With more grinding though?  Sure, could do.

Calculator: (Priest with Math Skill): Mmmm...this character was so JP starved.  Never learned 3 or prime number.  Never learned some pretty relevant stuff like Reraise, Cure 3, Pray Faith, Reflect, Demi 2, Ice 3.  I can see the value of Equip Gun--sometimes EXP-only mathskill was godly, but sometimes it would blank hard and hit like...one friendly character and nobody else.  Having a reliable option like a gun sounds decent.  But it would come at the cost of speed (H-Bag) and 750 JP.

Additionally, while we didn't play this one, one other theorycraft I had was Monk with Equip Gun.  Lets them brick Archers with Hammedo.  Gives them actual range.  Gives them a no-evasion move.  They can still wave fist for slightly less than an unarmed punch.  Obviously there's a tradeoff here, though (not using Equip Armour in the support slot).

Another theorycraft: if you steal an elemental gun, you can then use Jump with it, and deal better damage than the best storebought spear.  (Like...jump for 300ish, shoot for 150ish from a Ninja with Bracer, Thief Hat, Power Sleeve).

---

I'm...undecided TBH.  Like...I see potential strength there but Equip Gun tends to come with some loss from the weapon it replaces (typically losing Wizard Rod/H-Bag, or in the case of Monk losing 100 HP, or in the case of Ninja with Equip Gun and Jump, losing the Ninja auto-attack).  If it was cheap, I'd just grab it and switch between guns and other weapons depending on the fight, but it's also a pretty heavy JP investment.

Whereas like...setting aside weird debades about super-lategame setups, raising faith even a small amount (from 70 to 73) is enough to make Haste 100% on yourself instead of 92%.  That's...something I certainly care about.  77 faith on two neutral zodiac people gets Raise 2 to 100% instead of 83% at 70 faith.  I kinda care about that too.

That might just be a psychological thing on my end, where it really stings every time a 92% haste misses, and 100% is really not that much of an improvement, but...still, it does stick out in my mind.

If we can come up with a really clear power build for Equip Gun where it's like "if people knew about this build people would use it", then yeah, it's probably the ban choice.  But right now the examples I can think of are kind-of muddy like "yeah, I guess you could jam Equip Gun into this build, but it's kind-of a sidegrade over the weapons we were using without learning Equip Gun."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 08, 2020, 09:01:11 PM
Alright, Laggy and I have been hashing this out over chat.

Spellguns could be crippled a little by banning Steal Weapon over Jump+2.  This doesn’t prevent getting spellguns but it makes them slower and grindier to get.  We decided spellguns weren’t so big of a deal to make this change; you get them really late, they requires effort to even get, whereas every Ninja would get Jump+2 for free.

We did actually come up with a sensible build that really benefits from Equip Gun.  Grab the bare minimum from Summoner to crush the early chapters (Titan, Moogle).  Then GTFO to a lategame mage (Oracle or Time Mage).  When Titan becomes trash (late chapter 3 most of chapter 4) go Mediator with Time/YYM secondary, learn Equip Gun, then exit to Priest with Time/YYM and get Raise 2, Cures, Shell, protect.

The thing Equip Gun does here compared to being a Mediator with Time/YYM is that you get reviving (and misc healing).  And compared to doing the same setup without Equip Gun it gives you offence (basically zero offence spells in all three skillsets now).

So...yeah, I’m on board with the ban Equip Gun train.  Just debating what to unban.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 08, 2020, 10:40:06 PM
Options to unban: Invitation, Praise, Preach

Praise value is lowered in a world with a lot less reactions.  But it’s not a world with zero reactions.  Damage Split, Dragon Spirit, Counter, Hammedo, shenanigans with Quick and Countermagic are potentials.  There’s also just Ninja unarmed punches (roughly attack up level boost if you have 97 brave).

On the flip side, small amounts of brave raising (3-6 say) does little.

Faith you can definitely feel the benefits with small investments; 100% self haste.  But it’s more niche, and makes you take slightly more damage.

Invitation mostly boosts builds that use Mediator as a carrier.  (Status mages like oracles and time mages that want to have guns in chapter 4 when attack magic becomes trash, basically).  They would go to mediator for robes+guns, and get invitation for free as a strong panic button to turn around fights that are going poorly.

I’m...wondering if Invitation might be the right hit here?  I definitely see the value in it as a boost to the Mediator Carrier, I’m just less scared of the things that can be done with a Mediator using Time Magic than I am of a Mathskiller with Preach boosting or a Ninja with praise boosting.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 23, 2020, 07:46:17 PM
So...I was talking to Ciato and Elfboy, and they brought up the FFT ban order tier list, which I don't think I ever finished.  I could just read up this topic and see how I ordered that before...but where's the fun in that?  Going to try and reconstruct that from logic (which...I suspect might actually cause a different ban order).  Obviously this is for vanilla FFT, balanced versions like LFT are much harder to tier.

1. Calculator This is the obvious one that the vast majority of people ban if they're trying not to break the game.

2. Chemist I'm probably placing this one higher than I did last time I made a ban list.  But people when playing will deliberately self-ban Auto Potion much more than they'll deliberately avoid picking up Ramuh say.  You are just in tryhard break the game mode if you use Auto Potion X-Potion in any class.  Whereas you aren't in tryhard break the game mode if you're a priest with Ramuh using Gained JP Up.  And the thing is, you could build around auto-potion if it was necessary, you could stack effects like low faith + defence up + kiyomori + high brave--but that's just not needed when vanilla FFT enemies deal like 75 damage, and X-Potion heals for 150.  Auto potion+X Potion just...doesn't matter what class you run it in, doesn't matter whether you run it with damage reduction abilities, it's just going to be a little too high-power.

---

So...ok, after those first two bans, what's the strongest setup?  Well we know what the no-mathskill speedrun uses: 4 Wizards with Magic Attack Up and Ramuh.  So it seems like we're going to need to ban one of Wizard or Summoner.  If we ban Wizard what's the best setup?  Probably some combination of Summon/Short Charge.  Meteor/Short Charge would also be a consideration, but it would probably still use Summon secondary.  If we ban Summoner, what's the best setup?  Time Mage with Short Charge Meteor.  With wizard still legal you could take short charge meteor into Wizard for slightly higher MA, but this does mean locking yourself into black magic (rather than using your secondary for revival or MP restoration).  I think the setups with Summon are sounding stronger generally--short charge summon probably better than short charge meteor.  Grinding for short charge with Ramuh generally strong than grinding for short charge with Bolt 2.

3. Summoner As noted above, the next ban was either summoner or black mage, and if math skill and summon are banned Black Mage just has quite a bit less to offer (nobody wants MAU over Short Charge now, and wizard's high class MA and ability to equip rods are in lower demand).  There is a possible argument here for Black Mage if you put high value on Samurai with MAU compared to Summoner with Short Charge and Time Mage with Short Charge but...I don't.  Being a Samurai means being weak for like...chapter 1, chapter 2, and chapter 3 while you unlock the class and get JP for all the abilities and wait for katanas to show up in stores.

---

Right, so what are the next candidates:

* Time Mage: has Short Charge, which almost every good remaining class wants (Yin Yang wants it, Priest wants it, Meteor wants it, even Black Magic might consider it to get access to Bolt 4).  Time Mage has meteor, really expensive, but the best overall offence spell remaining, though obviously Holy is better in some fights, and demi/demi 2/life drain are better in some fights (Time Mage bringing both demi and demi 2 of course).  Short Charge Meteor has some arguments to be the best overall lategame setup.  Time Mage has teleport, best overall movement.
* Priest has the only good revival with Chemist gone.  Holy is now one of the good overall offence options, comes online way earlier than Meteor (600 JP instead of 2300 JP for short charge+meteor).
* Ninja with Move+2 and Concentrate is around and a pretty strong setup.  This has...decent arguments to be a stronger lategame setup than Time Mage (Time Mage SCC is considered easier than Ninja SCC, but Ninja SCC doesn't have Move+2 and Concentrate, whereas Time Mage SCC does have Short Charge and Teleport).  Worth noting, unlocking Ninja does also come online faster than learning both Short Charge+Meteor...at the expense of being super weak in Chapter 1 and 2 while you're grinding out Thief.
* While there's a few ways to be strong in Chapter 3-4, there's really only one way to be strong in chapter 1-2 now and it's Black Magic.   Short-charge meteor setups will use black magic the whole time they're training.  Thieves with dreams of becoming Ninjas will rely on teammates with Black Magic to carry the team.

I don't think it's Priest yet.  Revival gets good when all the enemies don't fall over and die before 3 turns, and I think we're still in fall over and die mode.  (And to be blunt, I don't think Holy even stands out much among these offence options).

I don't think it's Ninja yet.  If you leave both Wizard and Time Mage un-banned, Black Magic into Short Charge Meteor just means this unit is good the whole game.  Still too much power on that side of the job tree.

If you ban Time Mage...well you would probably want some characters going down the Ninja route.  One or two Wizards early on to carry the party, and then the Wizards would probably drift into more of a support role with White Magic or Yin Yang Magic.  Yeah, that's not even that awkward.

If you ban Wizard...well you're pushed in much more awkard directions if you want units that can deal damage in Chapter 1/2.  Like...we're talking running Knights in Chapter 1 (super dead-end class) running Lancers in chapter 2 (much better, but still a bit of a dead-end class) or just grabbing Holy in chapter 2, but that's still kind-of awkward (only enough MP for one of them, pretty large JP detour into Priest when ultimately you're going to want to be heading to Time Mage, and Chapter 2 has no assassination missions outside of Queklain).

Just...sounds more awkward.

4. Wizard There just isn't an easy replacement for black magic in Chapter 1/2 once summon is banned, and even if you take away the best mage option for chapter 3/4, there's still strong offence setups like Ninja, and mages can still head into white magic and play a support role, so it's not like the black magic character that carries the party through chapter 1/2 is going to be dead weight in chapter 3/4, they just might be more support role than DPS role.  It is interesting that black magic, and not high stats/MAU are what's getting Wizard banned this time.  (Although high stats/MAU are what put them into contention for being banned last round alongside Summoner).

(to be continued in followup posts).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 24, 2020, 04:04:52 AM
Alright, so what's the next ban.

* Squire is a possible ban.  With all the low JP options (Chemist/Wizard/Summoner) banned, suddenly banning gained JP Up hits like...everything.  Before banning Wizard I don't think squire was on the table "yeah you'll get your lategame setup a bit later, but you've got black magic so you aren't even that weak while you wait".
* White Mage is a possible ban.  The only good raise, and offence is now low enough early on that this could matter in chapter 1-2.  Also one of the lowest cost way of getting big offence (holy).
* Time Mage is still very good, though would get hit pretty hard by a gained JP Up ban.  Would care about a white mage ban too, as white magic gets its power spike when Time is still weakish.  Though...Oracle can probably also fill in the "hold the party's hand through Chapter 2" if needed (sticks are actually semi respectable damage in chapter 2--like...more than a knight deals, and Silence Song beats a couple of fights).  White is going to be notably better at handling golgorand, though--both in terms of making sure gaffy dies (holy is very good for this) and making sure nobody crystallizes (raise is good here).  Getting back to Time Mage, for the chapter 1-2 party, Haste is going to be fairly strong.
* Ninja is still very good, but would care at least a little bit about either a gained JP Up ban (lengthens the amount of the game when they are basically a dead-weight thief) and also care about a white mage ban (Ninjas have low HP and crystallize fast, so backup revival does matter).
* I'm starting to think a little bit about Lancer and Samurai.  Starting to, but they aren't there yet.

This is starting to feel like it's going to be Priest or Squire.  Every other build leans on core mechanics like gaining JP and having a safety res.  Most other builds are fairly endgame focused and theoretically have decent balance with each other.

So...if we ban squire, what does a low JP build look like?  Some kind of Priest/Oracle/Time Mage/Mediator Mix maybe.  Like...a Priest SCC with access to Life Drain, Haste, sticks, guns, and various theoretical endgame power spikes that will be slow to access due to a lack of Gained JP Up (short charge meteor, Ramza grabbing angel song, ninjas, samurais).

If we ban priest...we keep gained JP Up.  With Gained JP Up, unlocking Ninja could happen about the same time as the other party with priest that doesn't have Gained JP Up would be learning Holy (unless the priest like...skips raise).  So...should be still before golgorand.  Ninjas best weapon in chapter 2 is...fists because daggers are terrible and ninja swords are a chapter 3 thing, but at least fists can be boosted with martial arts (60x2 = 120 is a reasonable expectation; but martial arts means no concentrate on that).  Alternatively, Lancer unlocks notably earlier, Lancer is borderline unkillable in chapter 2 and can jump for 108 damage.  By comparison, Holy on gafgarion is around 245 damage, holy on generic enemies around 210, never misses.  But only enough MP for one per fight.

I don't think the Priest-banned group is going to be missing raise much in Chapter 3-4 or so when they have Ninjas, short charge meteor etc.  So it's more a question of chapter 1 early chapter 2, how much does a raise safety help, and how much does the early power spike of Holy mater when it's not actually that early due to a lack of Gained JP Up.

5. Squire: Yeah...thinking on it, my belief in the raw carrying power of Priest in Chapter 1/2 is...not particularly high.  600 JP is not that low for that part of the game when you don't have Gained JP Up, and mages really don't like being in Preist past about early chapter 2 (7 speed, when the enemies are speed 6).  Raise isn't always better than Haste or Silence Song as far as low-JP spells go.  By contrast as covered above, I don't really think any of the bigger JP dumps (Time Mage, Samurai, Lancer, unlocking Ninja, mastering Monk) are worth individually banning when banning Squire is a pretty big hit to all of them.

---

OK, so next up...

We've just lost Squire.

* Priest now seems like a really obvious target point.  Raise is still the only sensible revival--and the period when the party is weak enough to care about revival is likely to last for a while now without Gained JP Up.  Holy is a nice early-ish power spike with a low JP cost.  Weaknesses the SCC faces can be covered with a bit of multiclassing (picking up demi or life drain for altima, throwing in some MP restoration).
* Lancer and Ninja jump to mind as two other classes that can achieve competence with relatively low JP levels.  Lancer in particular as it is basically good in Chapter 2 as soon as it's unlocked.
* Time Mage is still chilling with a ton of busted (but kind of expensive) stuff.

6. Priest Yeah, kneecapping the only good revival left has to be fairly painful, and the fact that it also happens to be one of the few good high-offence options available at low JP on top of that really pushes it over the edge.

---

Alright, so things are now looking like

* Time Mage: packing a lot of stuff.  But some of it is on the expensive side.  Teleport (can be picked up through spillover if someone goes for meteor).  Haste (when you cut out black magic, item, and raise, this probably gets set as a secondary a lot).  Short Charge Meteor.  MP Switch should probably be mentioned as it is a very good reaction for people who don't need their MP, and something that can be picked up through spillover.
* Ninja, comes online earlier than Time Mage.  Though training to unlock Ninja is more painful.
* Lancer, comes online faster than Ninja.  Arguably stronger in Chapter 2 and 3.
* Samurai -- throwing this in here as there are people who self-ban from using blade grasp, and Draw Out was a skillset that got hit with a lot of nerfs in LFT.

So...what I'm seeing immediately looking at this list is...parties will probably consist of physical jobs getting hasted by Time Mages while the time mages grind out enough JP.  Ninjas getting hasted by Time Mages or Lancers getting hasted by Time Mages, or maybe even Monks or stick-wielding Oracles getting hasted.

Unless...you ban Time Mages.  Then you can either go Ninja or Lancer but you won't have haste, won't get AoE, and your gravity options are more limited.

7. Time Mage In terms of building a raw offence with short charge meteor, I don't know that it's standing out at this point--very slow to get without gained JP up.  But it just gives things to other party members; casting haste on them.  Giving them spillover for MP Switch or teleport.  having lots of synergy with Samurai (has Teleport for them, and is a high MA carrier class).  Time Mage just seems like the jenga piece that seems most likely to make things crumble a little.

---

alright, so what are we looking at now...

* Lancer -- comes online at some level pretty fast, since it just needs Chapter 2 equipment to be a reasonably strong melee fighter.  Takes a while for the full jumps to be learned.
* Ninja -- comes online slower, but is basically fully online when it does, while Lancer still has tons of training to do.
* Samurai -- probably the most gamebreaking stuff left on paper, but a lot of massive rugs have been pulled from under it (no gained JP Up, no teleport, no MAU, no Wizard).

8. Ninja I don't necessarily have a good 100% fool-proof logic here, but intuition is just saying I shouldn't think about this one too hard and the correct pick here is Ninja.  Ninja is the last of the OP 6 (Calc, Time, Priest, Wizard, Chemist)--only reason to have it down at 8 was just that Squire and Priest have support effects that touch every setup.  Ninja is a really strong setup on its own.  It reaches near peak performance faster than the others.  It's a really good carrier (notably a really solid physical carrier for Jump and Punch Art).  It has Abandon, which...is a really good reaction, maybe not Blade Grasp level, but often considered third behind Blade Grasp and Auto Potion.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 24, 2020, 01:53:23 PM
If you do want to go back and read your old thoughts, they start on page 7 of this thread (assuming 25 posts per page anyway). For all that I agree it's probably more fun to reconstruct things without referencing that at first and see how they end up. Not much else to say yet beyond that I am reading~
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 26, 2020, 02:54:01 AM
Alright, so let's take stock of where we are currently

* The strong longer-term builds are looking like Samurai, Lancer, and maybe a little bit of Monk or Oracle, with Lancer being the one that is actually strong in Chapter 2.
* Move+2 is a big deal.  There is no Move+1.  There is no Teleport.  A lot of things left are melee or...in some cases do have a range 8 attack but the range 8 attack costs tons of JP and they'd benefit a lot from Move+2 while they wait (Samurai, Lancer, Monk).
* Defence Up and Equip Gun are actually good support abilities now, mostly due to low competition.  In particular with Defence Up, Oracle tends to require a decent amount of JP commitment, which means one person committing Oracle gives the rest of the party Defence Up for free from spillover.
* If you rush to Samurai or Lancer, what's your secondary?  Yin Yang for Paralyze?  Elemental for range?  You could get Revive in Monk on the way to Samurai, but IDK if that's actually better than getting HP Restore or Earth Slash...well Earth Slash you would need martial arts too or it's likely to deal the same as Elemental.  Steal Heart if you don't mind skipping/delaying Move+2.  Talk Skill isn't bad--Invitation with just a 100 JP dip, option of more stuff with slightly larger dips (brave/faith modifying at 200 JP.  Mimic Daravon at 300 JP).  For jobs with low MP pools (Lancer) this might be better than Yin Yang.  A lot of OK options, nothing really standing out.
* If you have a dedicated monk the rest of your party gets HP Restore from spillover, so that's cool.
* What are the things people do actually self-ban?  Blade Grasp in Samurai, and Secret Hunt in Thief?  Both...not fast grinds.  Both competing with other JP options in the jobs (Draw Out and Move+2 respectively). 
* Secret Hunt in particular you really need to commit to, like invite and breed the right monster or deliberately fish for the Barius Hill Super Monster Battle.  If you don't actively plan out poaching you're getting...maybe one Salty Rage (red dragons show up in a number of random fights) one Holy Lance (same with Sacreds) one Ultimus Bow (same with King Behemoths).  Porkys (Chantage common drop) only show up from breeding or deep dungeon.  Hydras (Setiemson common drop) are super monster battle or deep dungeon.  But even then...you do need to be female to wear perfumes, and with a lot of remaining jobs being physical, that's not a trivial restriction.  If you have say...one Samurai Ramza, two Lancers, one Monk, and an Oracle, I don't think throwing Chantage on the Oracle is that large of a power spike.  Invincibility is invincibility, sure, but...Oracle is inherently defensive anyway, and enemies can still cancel spells by killling them.  Female Draw Out user with Chantage (or Setiemson) is a lot more spicy--high offence unit that loves to make suicidal dives.  But if that's the concern, banning Samurai does quite a bit to reduce the power that perfumes can offer.

So what does this party look like

* At least one Oracle (dipping Mediator just because it's the only other job on that side of the job tree now).  I don't think you want to go like 5 Oracle, though; still a support unit.

Chapter 1:
* The Knight into Monk path will do the heavy lifting.  Wannabe Lancers are stuck in Thief...and even if they unlock Lancer there's no spears.  Knight and Monk are prerequisites for Samurai anyway.  Bonus if you unlock Geo for Elemental secondary.

Chapter 2:
* Lancer and sometimes Oracle (70 damage sticks and Silence Song) do the heavy lifting.  Dedicated Monks experience their weakest chapter.  Samurai are faring even worse.  Monks actually have some tension where they...want Move+2, but their own skillset is also very JP hungry, like it's probably not worth delaying Earth Slash and Revive to detour into Move+2.
* Elemental is like 24 damage.  Draw Out from a Samurai with a Wizard Robe (if you get there this chapter) is like 84 damage (worth noting samurai swords don't even exist until half way through the chapter).  Jump is like 90 damage; 108 if you get to 8 PA.  Earth Slash is 48 (32 without martial arts).  Oracle stick hit is around 63.  Romanda Gun is 36, 54 with Charge+3.

Chapter 3 (for now ignoring a bunch of Yardow stuff like Bracer which technically shows up in Chapter 3, but right at the end and very expensive):
* Lancer damage doesn't scale up too much (maybe 120) but you know, 8 range now, invincibility frames, etc.
* Twist Headband means monks learning things in other classes is no longer painful; looking at Thief for Move+2, maybe Geomancer for Attack Up.
* Power Sleeves show up half way through the chapter--Earth Slash up to 75 damage now (notably 75 both from a Monk but also from a Thief with martial arts and twist headband).
* Guns go up to 64, and 88 with Charge+3.
* Sticks are casually dealing 100 or so if you use a wizard robe
* Elemental is dealing like...30.
* Samurai...still on 84 with Koutetsu, hasn't hit an MA Point, although one Samurai can swipe the red shoes to get 96 with Koutetsu.  Can learn Heaven's Cloud for 98 (112 with red shoes) but that's probably a waste of JP.  Able to deal more if they class jump to Oracle -- Full Wizard Rod Wizard Robe Oracle is like...144 with Koutetsu, so that's an option for hard fights.

Late Chapter 3/start of Chapter 4 (allowing for stuff like Bracer from Yardow now, as well as start of Chapter 4 gear)
* Samurai gets Muramasa (162 within Samurai w/ red shoes, 252 if you go Oracle) also Kiyomori.  Two massive power spikes.
* Lancer is 132 without bracer, 176 with Bracer; 198 if they're done mastering Lancer and ready to switch to Geo or whatever, 242 with bracer on geo.
* Earth Slash is...114 thanks to Bracer.  (Just shy of an important PA point that gets them to 147.  Geo with Twist Headband Power Sleeve Bracer can reach that 147).  However...we're just hitting the point in the game where enemies often float or have earth clothes so this number is a lot less impressive than it looks.
* If you feel so inclined, Geo autos with an ice brand and bracer are like 182.  143 without bracer.  Actually a little higher cause of the Ice 2 proc.  (earlier in Chapter 3 they were like 110, so like stick level).
* Sticks are dropping off--110ish if you still use Wizard Robe, but Wizard Robe is getting pretty sketchy on an oracle (low HP, low MP).

Late Chapter 4
* Samurai are just revolting.  Kikuichimoji is 240 damage range 8 AoE ignore friendlies, more vertical tolerance than Earth Slash.  Also Rune Blade Geo becomes a serious alternative to Wizard Rod Oracle for using draw out (more move and access to Ageis Shield).
* Lancer don't really move up, because they need to use Thief Hats for speed to land their jumps now and spears don't move much.  Still like 228 with a bracer on a geo or something.  Unless you poach, Holy Lance is a common poach from a not hard to find enemy to bring that number up to 266.
* Guns stay largely stagnant unless you steal/invite for magic guns.  You can add attack up to bring Mythril guns to 80 and Charge+3 to 112.
* Earth Slash on a monk with Attack Up is up to 210.  (If you can find enemies who don't float or have earth clothes, lol).
* Oracle sticks aren't really going anywhere at this point (they've gone up a little at 144, but don't look great next to bracer boosted numbers--bracer you can justify when you have 8 range, but magic gauntlet is a lot harder to justify when you have 2 range).
* I guess I should check in on Elemental with Rune Blades and Bracers...64ish.  OK.

9. Lancer They unlock their job much sooner than Samurai.  They're actually strong when they unlock their job even at low JP thanks to equipment imbalances in Chapter 2.  Much like Samurai they get a big damage boost from changing jobs to one with better stats.  (Samurai used to get a much bigger boost, but Wizard is banned so).  They need a lot of JP sure, but they get a head start--if they grind straight for it, they should be learning Level Jump 8 around the same time as a character going Samurai finally finishes unlocking Samurai for the first time.  They have 8 range for the longest time of any job apart from maybe Mediator and Dancer.  (Monk gets 8 range early but gets trolled by floating enemies and earth clothes for half the game).  They're either #1 or a close second on damage at every point I checked.  Having 2-3 Lancers, totally reasonable.  Having 2-3 Samurai...well either they're female, and you stab yourself in the foot in Chapter 1-2.  Or they're male and thus weaker in Chapter 3-4.  You could have multiple Monks easily enough too, but Monks didn't blow me away in the checkpoint by checkpoint comparison.  Oracle offering Defence Up is looking not as important in a world where people want Equip Spear.  Oracle offering life drain...ehh...loads of high damage setups, I think this crew can handle zodiac demons well enough that they'd survive a Life Drain ban.

---

OK, well, all the calculated numbers haven't changed, what's next.

* Banning Thief would hit Samurai hard, Monk less hard, and not really Oracle at all (they can just use Move MP Up).
* Banning Samurai cuts out an over-the-top Chapter 4 powerhouse, but a Monk/Oracle party will certainly get the job done in Chapter 4 (Oracle SCC has like...typically no resets in Chapter 4 because Oracles when they have all their JP are very solid.  Combine with Monks and you can put targets to sleep with Oracles and then one-shot them with Wave Fist, Oracles don't mind wearing Earth Clothes even without any special synergy, so Monks can full heal them from range using Earth Slash, and you get to put HP Restore as a reaction on your Defence Up Oracles).
* Banning Oracle is going to hit Chapter 2 pretty hard (Oracles are kind of the best Chapter 2 class with Lancer gone.  More damage than Monks, and Silence Song is great).  Banning Oracle also hits Samurai in various ways--Oracles give Defence Up to Samurai from spillover, and Samurai when they want a high MA job were often going Oracle (until Geomancer gets Rune Blade in late Chapter 4).  Also takes away life drain, but I don't think this party is all that scared of Altima.
* Banning Monk takes away revival, takes away HP restore for the whole party, takes away good physical damage (once they get Bracer, more like chip damage before that, but being specifically physical matters when hitting sleeping targets and charging targets).

10. Oracle Samurai kinda suck until chapter 4, or maybe Yardow if you save up JP and money for Kiyomori.  Monk kinda sucks until chapter 4, or maybe Yardow if you plan ahead and save tons of money for a Bracer (no, the chapter 3 power sleeve non-bracer numbers were not impressing me--75 damage earth slash is like...Mythril Gun range).  They have a lot of the same weaknesses (can't hit someone 4 height above them, garbage in chapter 2) a lot of the same strengths (line attacks, healing).  Oracle was kind of just good at covering both their weaknesses--good chapter 2 class, skillset with vertical tolerance, low cost skillset that's easy to set as a secondary.

11. Monk If you ban Samurai, what do you have?  A Monk SCC with some perks--pick up Elemental from Geomancer for some range, maybe get Attack Up, maybe get Equip Armour, maybe Move+2.  Not too bad.  If you ban Monk...you don't get a Samurai SCC, cause you still need to unlock the class and you'll need some characters to pull you through chapter 2.  What classes can you use to survive Chapter 2?  Archer, Geomancer, and Mediator I guess?  Dancer if you're feeling spicy?  Entirely possible that you might dedicate 2-3 characters to being a quasi Archer SCC--learn some charges, go to Mediator when guns show up, maybe grab Attack Up at some point.  Not really reasonable to send your whole party down the samurai road right away.

12. Samurai I did briefly entertain the thought of "Should one of Archer or Geomancer be banned before Samurai?"  It's an amusing thought, but no, ban Archer and people would build around Geomancers instead (and in fact Geomancy is a solid secondary for Samurais).  Geomancer and Archer are similar enough in power for the role of being an acceptable midgame unit.  Samurai is unique in bringing tons of lategame power.  Banning Geomancer...would weaken lategame Samurai a bunch (now there's no high MA classes...like at all; lowers the potential of Draw Out) but Samurai still brings stuff like Kiyomori and Blade Grasp--you could go Archer for Charge into Mediator for Equip Gun into Samurai to get lategame stuff.

---

OK, time to take stock of where we are.  12 classes are banned.  That means 7 classes are not banned, and 1 other class is Mime.

* The idea of banning Thief for Move+2 is not happening anytime soon--Archer and Mediator really don't care.  Geomancer cares a little.  Banning Thief for Secret Hunt is also unlikely--if we're that worried about Chantages, just ban Mediator.
* Mediator brings guns, and Talk Skill, both pretty relevant.
* Archer brings Charge, Arrow Guard which is a fairly premium reaction, and bows which are often worse than guns.
* Geomancer brings Attack Up, and swords which are good when you really want to hit hard (for must kill enemies they kill a lot faster).  Counter Flood is also a fairly premium reaction.
* Knight...Knight Swords hit hard if you raise your brave I guess?
* Dancer exists for range status and range chip damage
* Bard...I'm not convinced it's worth unlocking.

How much better are guns than bows?  Well...bows to match the accuracy of guns would need Concentrate, and if you're attacking uphill it's usually crossbows, so like 6 WP compared to Mythril gun's 8 WP for most of the game (similar enough damage if the crossbow user uses power sleeve twist headband).  Guns are 8 range compared to 4 range.  Downhill or flat you can go Windslash Bow for 8 WP (different formula again though; damage will be similar to guns or slightly higher).  5 range on flat, tons of range if shooting downhill.  Crossbows get up to 10 WP in the second half of chapter 4.

How much more damage are swords than bows?  Swords in chapter 2 and early Chapter 3 are kind-of bad actually--more damage than bows but not a lot more.  Late chapter 3 early chapter 4 swords just power spike, they're like...double the damage of bows.  Late chapter 4 Gastrifitis catches bows up a bit, swords are 40% more damage or so.

13. Mediator In the Mediator/Geomancer/Archer debate...yeah, sure looks like guns bring quite a bit to the table.  IDK if it's more than what Geo or Archer is bringing, but banning Mediator also just closes a lot of loopholes, like the ability to get Chantages in Chapter 3 by inviting Uribos, the ability to break the game by getting an elemental gun from a variety of sources.

14. Geomancer There's a lot of ways left to deal with mobs of enemies.  Cripple them with dancers, for instance.  Geos have the best game against Zodiacs, though.  Swords hit harder for starters, and Attack Up goes with everything when it comes to zodiacs.  Also just...Geo SCC easier than Archer SCC.

15. Archer The remaining classes are Archer, Knight, Dancer, Thief, and Bard.  (Oh right, and Mime).  Archer and Dancer are the two SCCs with some power behind them.  Thief's Move+2 isn't very exciting to either of them.  So Archer vs Dancer.  Archer's available from the start of the game, and Dancer is the second slowest class in the game to unlock.

16. Dancer The last remaining class with some semblance of competence.

17. Knight OK, so Knight, Bard, and Thief.  Banning Bard is sketchy, because Thieves with Equip Sword using Twist Headband and Power Sleeve hit hard like Geomancers.  So it's Bard+Thief or Bard+Knight.  And I think the Knight combo has more synergy (giving Move+3 to Knights, for example does more than giving Move+3 to Thieves who already have Move+2.  Knights being the only source of robes or shields, for example, for cheesing out the Wiegraf duel and Balk II).

18. Thief? TBH, this mostly comes down to Thief SCC vs Bard SCC, and honestly I can't remember which is considered harder.

19. Bard (Or Thief, see above)

20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on August 27, 2020, 04:57:37 AM
Quote
How much better are guns than bows?  Well...bows to match the accuracy of guns would need Concentrate, and if you're attacking uphill it's usually crossbows, so like 6 WP compared to Mythril gun's 8 WP for most of the game (similar enough damage if the crossbow user uses power sleeve twist headband).  Guns are 8 range compared to 4 range.  Downhill or flat you can go Windslash Bow for 8 WP (different formula again though; damage will be similar to guns or slightly higher).  5 range on flat, tons of range if shooting downhill.  Crossbows get up to 10 WP in the second half of chapter 4.

How much more damage are swords than bows?  Swords in chapter 2 and early Chapter 3 are kind-of bad actually--more damage than bows but not a lot more.  Late chapter 3 early chapter 4 swords just power spike, they're like...double the damage of bows.  Late chapter 4 Gastrifitis catches bows up a bit, swords are 40% more damage or so.

Having done the Archer SCC you just... basically never use crossbows between Longbow and Gastrifitis. I tried on a couple occasions and was always disappointed. The problem is that even if you're attacking uphill, in order for them to outrange bows, you need to be attacking 4 squares uphill, and at that point terrain starts to block your line of attack pretty often (including the terrain the enemy is standing on, if the height difference gets much greater than 4). Grog Hill is a good example of an uphill map where it's extremely difficult to actually make good use of the crossbow's ability to fire upwards, and the ability of longbows to fire over enemies/allies and to get further range when attacking along a flat (e.g laterally, in that battle) is more important. And in literally every fight before Grog Hill, crossbows have 3-4 attack which is just way too low, compared to bows which have 4-6 during that same stretch. Like... if you have 6 PA and 6 Spd post-Lionel, you can do 52 damage with Charge+5 with a crossbow, and 72 with a Lightning Bow (ignoring the random Bolt 2)... and this gap is even wider before Lionel (3-power crossbows!) or after Queklain (Mithril Bow). Like... Elemental doesn't do much less damage than crossbows at this point (admittedly a good point for it, with Diamond Armlet/Wizard Robe), and is better in a lot of ways (ITE without a support slot, doesn't need to charge, random status, sometimes has AoE); this doesn't speak highly of anyone running a crossbow as their main offence.

Guns are better of course, at least if you have Attack Up (without Geo, Concentrate becomes a pretty dominant support ability). Though it's worth remembering that they don't exist until halfway through chapter 2, and later in the game their power does start to fall off unless we go harvesting elemental guns, and that's both annoying and is limited by the user's faith, which, in an all-mages-are-banned setting, there's little reason to want to have above 50 otherwise.

I argued so strongly for Geomancer being #13 that I did a playthrough to prove it, so naturally I'll restate that opinion here.


Otherwise it's interesting to compare this list to the one you made 9 years ago
Code: [Select]
1. Calculator
2. Summoner
3. Wizard
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Ninja
7. Time Mage
8. Samurai
9. Lancer
10. Priest
11. Oracle
12. Monk
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. The Infernal Spawn of Boco (Red Chocobos)
(It doesn't look like you decided on whether Thief or Bard was higher.)

The biggest changes are that Chemist and Priest are higher this time (and Mediator, though I'd argue it needs to drop), while Samurai, Ninja, and Knight are lower, Priest being the largest overall. I'd be curious for you to re-read your earlier thoughts and decide which ones you think are more correct. I'm not really sure, myself!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 27, 2020, 07:20:03 PM
Interesting; in my memory I didn't remember finishing the last list; remember stopping around 10th.

The biggest changes are that Chemist and Priest are higher this time (and Mediator, though I'd argue it needs to drop), while Samurai, Ninja, and Knight are lower, Priest being the largest overall. I'd be curious for you to re-read your earlier thoughts and decide which ones you think are more correct. I'm not really sure, myself!

Chemist (from #4 to #2)...yeah, knew this one was going to come up.  I still remember the old logic (if you are really hardcore focusing on breaking the game, like no-calc speedruns, summon/black mage with MAU is better, Auto-potion doesn't get set on the speed run cause it takes animation time).

Really, the call on this one was
1. I remember the state of mind I was in when making this list the last time, and it was fresh off a different list where Chemist wasn't very high (and was correctly placed lower on that list).
2. it's possible to dabble in Summon without breaking the game if you don't go all-in with MAU on a Wizard.  (Not like there aren't a number of SCCs easier than the Summoner SCC).
3. By contrast, you could stack up abilities that would power auto potion--such as defence up, kiyomori.  But even if you don't stack them, Auto Potion X-Potion is kind of in the danger zone.

Arguments could be made either way, but Chemist 2nd is reasonable.  Like...sure, the party if you don't ban summon AND people go all in on abusing summon is strong, but so is the all-in Auto Potion abuse party.  (Bunch of black mages running Auto Potion early on into Short Charge Meteor later on).

I think I feel ok about this pick.

---

On Priest 6th -- well, honestly, this time I went for the angle of "what would make this playthrough harder--looks like this party is weak in the earlygame let's make it even weaker earlygame".  Last time I went for the angle of "the earlygame stuff is weak, so let's ban something from the lategame".  This is a result of inconsistent rules TBH.

On Nina vs Time Mage (they swapped spots--had Ninja higher last time Time Mage higher this time): Honestly the decision did come down to partially "Lancer is close in value to Ninja", which partially came down to how much earlier Lancer comes online.  If Lancer and Ninja are close, then Time Mage performs an important support role.  Also, this may be a case where earlier ban choices impacted later ban choices--ban priest, and suddenly Time Magic is just a secondary you slap on everything.  With Priest still around ehh...you might be slapping raise.

On Samurai 8th->12th.  Again, this seems to be a slightly different rules thing.  Last time I followed the logic of "what's a good thing to ban?  Blade Grasp!"  This time I was thinking more along the lines of "it looks like this party is vulnerable in Chapter 1 and 2" which leads to Monk/Oracle/Lancer/Priest (all classes that contributed to Chapter 1/2) getting banned first.

Geomancer should be 13th instead of 14th -- yeah, fair enough, I had forgotten that whole conversation and how the power level was still high enough that going for Chantages didn't really make sense.

Knight should be 14th instead of 17th: looks like this one was actually partially based on Elfboy's playthrough, and based on the fact that Knight was really important in Chapter 1 (so this is now getting more in line with the kind of logic I ended up using to ban Priest as early as I did).  But also based on information I kind-of overlooked when I was making the new list--Equip Sword is really good for damage.  Ice Brand Healing is now the best Chapter 4 healing (lol bards).

Mediator/Archer/Dancer still in the same order, just below Knight.

So...I'm thinking 13-18 on the old list is probably pretty solid since it was actually based on detailed playthrough notes.  Probably keep 1-12 from the new list, since I was using logic closer to what the old list used.

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Samurai
13. Geomancer
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Bard/Thief
20. Bard/Thief
21. Mime

Looking over these...

2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard

Basically always going to be 2-4.  I don't really think it's possible to do a playthrough that would test which one deserved to be higher since they are all so easy.  Unless you did a solo challenge, in which case yes, I think Ban Auto Potion First is correct.

Next...


5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer

I think there's potentially room for movement in these.  Like...I put Ninja over Lancer mostly based off of "everyone always tells me Ninja is better".  I put Priest high partially because of raise, but I might be overvaluing Raise here.

10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Samurai
13. Geomancer

So ok, I am getting a bit skittish about this order, cause Oracle/Monk the logic behind them being where they are was "what are you doing in Chapter 2 without these?"-- but it turns out you can get a lot done with the Archer/Geomancer/Mediator triangle.  Monk/Oracle do offer RSM and good skillsets (that don't require opening Samurai) though, and they do just murder bosses, which has been a bit of a weak point for classes below them.

Even if Oracle and Monk are where they should be, is Geomancer above Samurai actually...correct?  One thing I did note is that banning Geomancer really limits what you can do with Samurai Draw Out--there's no other high MA classes left.  Technically Samurai offers Two Hands for boss assassination, which hits harder than Attack Up, but that's revoltingly expensive (900 Samurai JP), and what class are you going to set Two Hands on anyway?  With Geo banned it would be like...Knight?  Obviously with Samurai you gain some lategame strength, but you lose a lot of earlygame strength (no longer have attack up for guns).  Also Samurai gets more painful when you can't set elemental secondary.

So ok, I'm willing to try swapping those around.  Let's say we go

12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight

Is there a world where Samurai go below...Knight?  Mmm...on the one hand that's kind of hard to justify--the whole "knights have healing in chapter 4" falls flat when you're comparing it to Draw Out (which has healing and Kiyomori, not to mention Blade Grasp).  On the other hand, there's still Chapter 1, and later chapters where Equip Sword physicals on a Thief/Archer do outdamage draw out on low MA classes.  Kikuichimoji is 8 range, though, and Draw Out ignores Elmdor's Blade Grasp, and human boss evasion, so I think that's enough to really shut down the "but what if equip sword thieves are better at assassinations".  I mean, they certainly are against Velius.  So ok, Samurai could move below geo, but not lower.

15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19/20/21. thief/bard/mime

There's probably an argument for Archer before Mediator here.  With Knight gone, banning Archer does make Chapter 1 truly miserable.  Archers are better at assassination (which still look like the problem fights).  With Knights gone, Archers are the only source of shields...although I guess that doesn't matter too much if Mediators are banned (can't really use shields much without guns).  Looking back at my old arguments...Equip Gun is good and does let you cruise to dancer.  (Whereas with Mediator banned, there isn't really a comfy way to get to dancer).  And of course Mediator brings lots of potential comedy options (Chantages, inviting a Hydra and breeding Tiamats).  Mediator's probably fine here.

So...ok, starting from the stiched together list, some potential movement, but not much I'm really sure about.  I am still feeling okish about experimenting with Samurai one further down.  Still leaves some open questions about the ordering of Priest/Ninja/Time Mage/Lancer--feel like that 4 pack could be re-ordered a lot of ways.  For now:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Bard/Thief
20. Bard/Thief
21. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 29, 2020, 11:12:31 AM
So...picking up the unfinished Bard/Thief thing.

Reading through old posts, seems like there were some semi-formalized rules about how you're supposed to go through "dead" classes.  E.g. if Thief is legal, then you can use daggers in Squire and Chemist while unlocking Mime, since those two classes have worse stats than Thieves (but you can not use swords or axes in squire, as all classes that use swords have been banned).

I mean, within reason of course.  If you are going through an armour class to unlock Mime, you don't need to be completely naked to compensate for Bard and Thief's inability to equip armour.  Maybe just wear enough armour to match the HP total you could have gotten from clothes.  Likewise, there's daggers that deal more damage than the oak staff, so maybe you can use the oak staff (just don't abuse this rule to get more damage or anything).

However, ban thieves, and...things get really ugly.  Bards have no weapons until meeting at Lionel Castle.  On their SCC, they deal baseline 1 damage for all of chapter 1 and half of chapter 2.  To make it really authentic you would wear slightly out-of date gear to get your HP down to more realistic bard levels (summoner HP too high!)  Which means...have fun unlocking Bards using punching low HP summoners.  I mean, it's doable using SCC guest rules, powerlevelling a guest to carry you through chapter 1, and then doing every proposition in Chapter 2 (resetting if you get into a random encounter).  But...very unpleasant.

So a bard SCC with a much worse Chapter 1 and 2.  Potentially with an easier than Bard SCC late chapter 4 with some grinding (Unlocking Mime with Sing is perfectly reasonable, and if you want to grind, level up-down on a few characters can get them into like 900 HP range in 3ish hours--which I did calculate earlier in this topic as being generally faster and easier than poaching Zorlin Shapes on the Thief SCC or going through the entire Deep Dungeon just to poach Chantages).

By comparison, ban Bard and...I think you just play a Thief SCC.  Steal one Chantage from Meliadoul.  Pretend Mime doesn't exist.  Much easier Chapter 1 and 2.

Chapter 3...Elfboy reported on his Thief SCC being level 30 towards the end of chapter 3, which was considered a relatively low level.  Pre-Bracer that represents 88 damage with twist headband power sleeve, 96 with diamond armlet I guess.  Bloody Strings at level 30 with diamond armlet deals 91.  Bracer skyrockets thief damage to 140, and doesn't change Bard much.  Bard's got range and draining, Thief has speed and HP.  Of course these are post Orbonne numbers (bloody strings doesn't show up till then).  Pre-Orbonne you're looking at not power sleeve and not bloody strings, so 70 or 60 damage from harps, and 70 damage punches, I guess 88 with diamond armlet.  I'm kind-of ignoring skillsets here for a bit, I assume they favour Bard (notably for this chapter Bard does actually have a plan for Wiegraf--song buffs lots of them, which also gives them a plan for Velius).  Overall not completely one-sided but I think Bards take Chapter 3.

Chapter 4 Elfboy reported going up to level 50 with Thieves.  10 base speed, 9 base PA, Air Knives with Thief Hat and 108 gems goes up to 130.  Punches go up to 176 with bracer (which...is more damage per clocktick actually).  Harps...9 MA, 2 PA, 8 speed (close to 9).  Up to 117 harp damage, but that requires full bracer+twist headband+power sleeve.  Something like Flash Hat+Angel Ring+power sleeve will be 91.  Something like Thief Hat+Bracer+Power Sleeve will be 104.  Highest damage per clocktick option (but Thief wins the damage per clocktick category by a convincing amount, and has more HP).  There's also like...a few fights where you fight undead, and need to throw on the Ramia Harp, so that's kind-of awful this deep in the game.

Throw in the Meladoul Chantage, and I'm thinking early chapter 4 seems to generally favour Thieves.  Late Chapter 4 if you go deep on grinding, Bards can snag Mimes (initially iffy due to terrible HP and 4 move) and then level up down for a couple hours (suddenly good now).

So like...

Chapter 1: Hard Thief
Chapter 2: Leans Thief  (Unlocking Bard is still a major problem.  Once unlocked...maybe Bard has an easier Golgorand, hits harder, has healing, so...tentatively putting this chapter as "Leans Thief").
Chapter 3: Leans Bard (Harps beat daggers and fists when they first show up in stores, and Sing beating Wiegraf/Velius is a kind of big deal in this chapter).
Early Chapter 4: Leans Thief (steal Chantage from Meliadoul, Air Knife doesn't suck, Fights with undead exist to spit in Bard's face)
Chapter 4 Lategame if excessive grinding is deemed worth doing: Leans Bard/Mime (Level up/down is faster than lategame poaching plans if you've got Mime unlocked, and honestly probably more impactful.  Sing+Mime is a nice upgrade to sing even with no level-up down).  Although...worth noting it's mostly ridiculous HP you get.  My calcluations from earlier in this topic were about 900 HP and...13-16 PA.  Twist Headband Power Sleeve Bracer Thieves also have 16 PA (but do not have martial arts or concentrate).  Certainly more damage than thieves regardless, but not blowing them out of the water before battle song, and of course mimes have 4 move, less speed--quite a bit less speed if they are levelled down.  The 900 HP is nice, though; basically comparable to a chantage except when it comes to AI behaviour.

So...

Hard Thief
Leans Thief
Leans Bard
Leans Thief
Leans Bard/Mime (but debateable if that level of grinding is actually warranted).

Overall this is looking pretty Thief

Which makes the current list look like this:


1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

Still want to look at the 5-9 bunch, and the 10-14 bunch
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on August 30, 2020, 05:11:03 PM
It's not a big deal because it's a definitional thing, but I'll just say that I still find it weird to see Squire so high up, essentially on the basis of Gained JP UP alone.  Yes, it's technically a Squire ability.  But...  in a "normal" game, you can learn it immediately after Gariland Magic City.  Even starting Chemists will get access to it fast thanks to spillover JP.  It probably wasn't great design to have the ability at all (hence LFT giving it to every class for free), but to the designer's credit, you get access to it near-instantly on essentially any character.  You weren't really expected to play FFT without access to it.  To me, this feels closer to requiring you directly draft Merlinus in a Fire Emblem draft to be able to send extra supplies to your convoy rather than discard them, or the like.

Just for giggles, if Gained JP Up is thrown out (either because we decide we're willing to grind for the JP, or because we just declare it blanket legal), where does vanilla Squire end up by mc rules otherwise?  My kneejerk is just above Bard, but maybe I'm off.  They do still offer Move +1, but Thief is #18 and offers Move +2, so that only goes so far.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Random Consonant on August 30, 2020, 05:32:48 PM
but I'll just say that I still find it weird to see Squire so high up, essentially on the basis of Gained JP UP alone.

Quote
You weren't really expected to play FFT without access to it.

Hmmmm yes what a mystery.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on August 30, 2020, 09:57:21 PM
Gained JP Up is good, yes.  I'm saying it doesn't really feel like a Squire ability, more like a universal system feature that happens to be in Squire.  In a vanilla playthrough, you collect your L2 Squire for access to Knight / Archer and your Gained JP Up then move on and never look back, having used Squire for 3/60 battles or the like.

It's also worth noting that in traditional SCC rules, you do some Mandalia Plains / Sweegy Woods grinding with Gained JP Up allowed solely to unlock the challenge job.  If we assume some sort of similar exception in "vanilla but with a deep ban list" - i.e. it's okay to grind through the "illegal" classes in random battles to unlock the legal classes - then the value of Gained JP Up does notably fall off some after C1 for some classes, like Geomancer or Thief, who'll unlock everything relevant pretty fast once the class unlocking is thrown out.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Random Consonant on August 31, 2020, 01:58:11 AM
Well it doesn't really matter what it "feels" like does it?  What matters is what it is, and I would point out that by your logic Math Skill should no more "feel" like a Calculator ability (since "in a vanilla playthrough" you do propositions to get all the skills in it you want then move on and never look back, having used Calculator for 0/60 battles or the like) than Gained JP Up "feels" like a Squire ability, and that's plainly not what's being assumed here.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 31, 2020, 04:23:32 PM
Just for giggles, if Gained JP Up is thrown out (either because we decide we're willing to grind for the JP, or because we just declare it blanket legal), where does vanilla Squire end up by mc rules otherwise?  My kneejerk is just above Bard, but maybe I'm off.  They do still offer Move +1, but Thief is #18 and offers Move +2, so that only goes so far.
Um, it moves several things around--for one thing, assuming Squire doesn't go earlier over Move+1 (not too likely, but...more likely than Thieves getting banned early for Move+2) then Knight doesn't get banned 14th (or I guess 13th if we're assuming Squire hasn't been banned yet).  Knight getting banned 14th was partially about being able to slap Equip Sword on a Thief, but Squires already have swords and 4 move (they do have slightly worse stats than Thieves, but they can set Concentrate and Thieves with Equip Sword can't).

But also, obviously, all of the high JP jobs that kind-of get dunked downwards (Samurai, Time Mage, Dancer etc) probably move up some.  Jobs that were moved up because everyone else was suffering from even more JP deprivation than they were (Monk, Priest, Geomancer, Mediator) probably move down a little.

Oh also, anyone getting credit for a support ability like Attack Up from Geomancer, or Martial Arts from Monk, or Defence Up from Oracle?  Yeah...get ready to shift all of those down because you aren't setting that stuff in most fights over Gained JP Up.  Monk in particular suffers, because once you're done learning their skillset, if you want to go learn something else, do you drop Martial Arts for Gained JP Up?

Basically the entire list changes.  And in particular it kind of breaks the spirit of the list because lower power support abilities would get less chances to shine when the highest power support ability never gets banned.

Still fairly obnoxious to place Squire though, since there is an argument to ban them over Move+1, which is considerably stronger than the argument to ban Thieves over Move+2 or Bards over Move+3, because Move+1 is basically free and everyone ends up getting it through spillover (whereas on Elfboy's playthrough even with Move+1 banned, not everyone bothered with Move+2, and those who did often didn't grab it till Chapter 3 or so).  Although...I guess with Gained JP Up, Move+2 is also considerably faster to get....

(TBH, though, I've always had a personal preference for tier lists that give Squire at least some credit for Gained JP Up.  There are plenty of tier lists that basically ignore it--SCC difficulty ranking would be one such tier list.  The GameFAQs FFT board also made a skillset ranking assuming you learn everything in the skillset--that would be another such tier list.  A lot of my preferences probably come out of stylistic clashes with the GameFAQs FFT board, which tends to have attitudes like "why wouldn't you grind to unlock Mime in chapter 1?")

Quote
It's also worth noting that in traditional SCC rules, you do some Mandalia Plains / Sweegy Woods grinding with Gained JP Up allowed solely to unlock the challenge job.  If we assume some sort of similar exception in "vanilla but with a deep ban list" - i.e. it's okay to grind through the "illegal" classes in random battles to unlock the legal classes
No, this isn't SCC rules for dead classes.  The assumption is that you use dead classes in story fights, and just don't use anything from the class that's particularly strong and would carry the party through fights.  (E.g. no: you don't get to learn Black Magic on your Wizards while you head to unlock Bard).  If you read through Elfboy's playthrough, there were plenty of instances of female Lancers who were on the path to Dancer.

The SCC rules remove the unlock penalty for classes, and one of the goals I had when setting up this tier list was to preserve that some classes are pretty expensive to unlock.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 31, 2020, 04:42:40 PM
Okay, so I just got back from a weekend vacation where I didn't have internet, so here's the dump of information from that weekend.



Alright, some Ninja vs Lancer numbers, since I did not do a full analysis on that

Chapter 2:
Lancer doing 90-108 damage with jump
Ninja (not existing for most of the chapter, unlocking around when Lancer gets level jump 8 if other jumps are skipped)
Ninja doing 70 damage with daggers
Ninja doing 64 damage with throw ball
Ninja doing 120 damage with martial arts (potential for 156 with headgear+power wrist)
Ninja doing 128 damage with Equip Sword

Chapter 3 (pre-yardow):
Lancer dealing 120 damage
Ninja dealing 180 damage with Concentrate Ninja Swords
Ninja dealing 72 damage with throw ball (a few weakness enemies make this 144 in this chapter—flame shield and ice shield knights as well as some undead monsters)
Ninja dealing 256 with Martial Arts (288 with diamond armlet).

Early chapter 4 with bracers:

Lancer dealing 176 damage
Lancer that switched out to Geo dealing 231 damage
Ninja dealing 286 damage (with concentrate and ninja swords; can wear green beret without losing damage)
Ninja dealing 484 damage (with martial arts)
Ninja dealing 330 damage (with concentrate and fists)

Late chapter 4 when people feel pressured to wear Thief Hat:
Geo/Lancer: 228 (barring poaching shenanigans)
Ninja: 312 (with concentrate and ninja swords)
Ninja 420 (with martial arts while still wearing a Thief Hat; can hit 528)


So...what I'm seeing with Ninja is...for one thing a lot of flexibility; switching between Concentrate and Martial Arts depending on the fight.  Going through elfboy's geomancer report, on how often he used Attack Up vs Concentrate, there was a lot of attack up.  Also 50% more damage while having more speed if going ninja swords, about double the damage with martial arts fist usually possible.  All things considered, while Lancer's charge time isn't always a downside since it is invincibility frames, it's more often a downside than an upside.

In disadvantages, Lancers always do their damage at range 8, while Ninjas have to get close.  Ninjas are less durable in several ways...unless they use Abandon+Feather Mantle (small damage loss).

Nobody wins chapter 1.
Chapter 2 Lancer wins by a lot (even when Ninja is unlocked it's not great thanks to only having daggers)
Chapter 3 is advantage Ninja
Chapter 4 p1 is advantage Ninja
Chapter 4 p2 is advantage Ninja

So like...I suppose the question is if chapter 2 is hard enough that we need to be trying to laser target it with a Lancer ban, and...nah, you can have Oracles (quite good in the chapter) Geomancers (quite good in the chapter as demonstrated by Elfboy's playthrough—Wizard Robe+Diamond Armlet is good for elemental), you can go for Equip Armour Monk (Monk normally has its low point in Chapter 2, but Chapter 2 armour is really good).  There's also options of not rushing to Ninja—stopping and getting a punch art skillset first, using martial arts to make Thief and Archer not annoying to go through.

On the whole, yeah, Ninja > Lancer still seems reasonable.

Hmm...actually, going back and revisiting this, I'm raising some question marks about Ninja being above Lancer in Chapter 3, just because you can sensibly have several Lancers in Chapter 3, but you can't have too many Ninjas sensibly by the start of Chapter 3, as you likely don't want that many people in Thief/Archer at the same time (see the Time Mage vs Ninja stuff below).

---

Priest above Ninja/Time Mage:

How important is having revival?  Moderately important.  I'm looking through Elfboy's bottom 8 class playthrough, and a lot of the actual resets were “made some signifcant mistake very early, got a crystallisation.  Went back, didn't make mistake again.”  Over the course of the game, probably prevents some resets.

How important is Holy?  It makes mages into damage powerhouses in chapter 2.  It's 600 JP compared to 2300 JP for Short Charge Meteor; its online before Ninja, before Earth Slash, before Geomancer can get Attack Up.  It allows mages to start working on the JP for very JP hungry lategame setups without punshment.

How important are Cures?  Probably fairly important in Chapter 1 with Potion banned.  Maybe less important than Haste, though.

What happens if we ban Ninja instead of Priest?  Meh, Lancers exist, Monks exist, whatever.

What happens if we ban Time Mage instead of Priest?  Interesting.  So...part of the argument in favour of Priest is that it allows you to comfortably grind for lategame setups like short charge meteor.  Take that away, and are Priests really a problem?  Priests would now be looking at Priest/Oracle, and Oracles are relatively beastly in the lategame, but probably not Ninja/Lancer levels.  Oracle does complement Priest very well, though—where do priest SCCs run into trouble?  It's stuff like running out of MP on Altima.  Oracles bring Life Drain to bop Altima, as well as Spell Absorb and Move-MP Up for MP issues on other fights.  Not to mention sticks—if there's a concern about running out of MP on non-altima fights, sticks can close things out.

Do I think a sane person would go 5 priest/oracle when Ninjas and Lancers and Samurai and Monks are available?  No, mostly because of Chapter 1.  Kinda want a couple of Knights or something.  I could see Ramza starting in Knight in chapter 1, picking up Weapon Guard and Equip Shield, then heading back into the Oracle/Priest path.  A second male Knight could stay Knight for Chapter 1 and then roll into some physical build in Chapter 2 (with Monk being probably the most tempting cause it would give HP Restore to the whole party through spillover, and the time in Knight means Equip Armour monk).  Mages picking up their choice of weapon guard or equip shield from spillover.  So...yeah, with Priest/Oracle still legal, I can imagine running 4x Priest/Oracle.  It's maybe not the best setup possible in Chapter 4 when Ninja is available, but all of those units would be continuously useful in every chapter (acting as support units in Chapter 1, offence units in chapter 2 before Ninja was unlocked, etc).  Like...that sounds like a plausible setup.
By comparison, it's hard to imagine 4x Oracle/Time Mage as being correct.  These units are going to be support units for roughly half the game until Short Charge Meteor is available.  They are both lategame focused classes.  Time Mage would appreciate Oracle's MP restoration and conservation of course, but it's kind-of coming at the wrong time (Time Mage SCC largely stomps chapter 3-4, and needs more help on Chapter 1-2).

So...yeah, Priest here is probably correct as the 6th ban.  The mage path is probably overall too strong with all three of Priest/Oracle/Time Mage available.  And Priest is in the unique position of having power relatively early in the game, and combining well with either Oracle or Time Mage.

Stick with Priest > Time Mage/Ninja.

---

On Time Mage over Ninja:

With the banning of Priest, parties will start looking a lot more physical.  Haste becomes really good in heavily physical parties, puts Time Mage over Ninja in Chapters 1&2 I think.  Short Charge Meteor is...not as slow as it looks due to job level stacking.  My estimate is unlocking Ninja takes about 94 actions in general, unlocking Time Mage, learning Haste and Slow and then saving for Short Charge Meteor looks like...142 actions.  Unlocking Dancer 128 actions.  Elfboy's report about Dancer suggested unlocking it close to Chapter 3 start, so like 12 actions after that...is about 4 more fights means Goland, zalmo, UBS2, UBS3, have it in time for UBS1 maybe.

Is it possible to just get Meteor and not Short Charge?  If your enemies are 6 speed then sure—looks like this is doable in maybe a few Chapter 2 fights (about 100 actions to get Haste, Slow, Meteor).  If  hitting 7 speed enemies, well...only if you can get speed 7.  A speed 7 character can land meteor on another speed 7 character as long as the enemy moves and acts.  Requires being 7 speed, though.  And no you can't use Green Beret to reach speed 7, your MP will be too low.  You can't use sprint shoes, not out yet.  You could job change to priest...but it's banned, so no, you basically need Short Charge from the start of Chapter 3 onward.
Time Mage wins chapter 1 & 2 because of Haste and Ninja being stuck in garbage classes.  Ninja wins chapter 3 due to coming online.  Time Mage wins early Chapter 4 (up through Bethla) because most enemies are the same speed.  Late Chapter 4 there's a lot more fights with fast enemies, which means Ninja might be better in late Chapter 4, but it's hardly a blowout.  Having a time mage gives a lot of useful spillover (MP Switch or Teleport for all the non-Time Mages, Haste secondary another possible spillover benefit, outside possibility of getting multiples).

So like in the Chapter by Chapter breakdown Time Mage looks a little ahead, and spillover would be another point in its favour.  However...there's also the factor where you're not going to load up on 4x time mage.  I think you want at least 1.  You can probably get away with 2, although with 2 you won't be doing like “only haste and slow and then save for the next 2 chapters”--one of those Time Mages would probably at least partially invest into Oracle, or Mediator for equip gun, or pick up more utility stuff from Time Mage like Teleport before going for Meteor.  Although, worth noting, two Time Mages spillover between the two of them is enough to get Short Charge Meteor by late Chapter 2 (if you skip everything besides Haste/Slow).

Granted, there isn't really a great way to get 4x Ninjas by the start of chapter 3 either, just because of how awkward it is to get there.  You don't really want to be running around with 4x Thieves at any point in Chapter 1 or 2.  Chapter 3 you can use Twist Headband + Power Sleeve and use martial arts, or use something like Equip Gun, and then you can get Thief JP comfortably.  Although 29 Thief actions...at that point you'd be looking at unlocking Ninja by Chapter 4.  A Chapter 4 party with 4x Ninja is possible though!
Although...there are certainly some mook smash fights where one character with Short Charge Meteor might be more impactful than two physical characters, so you know, that seems important too.

OK, so regardless, Time Mage wins Chapter 1&2 thanks to Haste and Ninja having bad prerequisites.  Haste, and spillover options like Teleport and MP Switch never stop being good.  There is an argument that in Chapter 3 when you probably only have 1-2 Ninjas due to the unlock requirements, it's not clear that 1 Ninja is more impactful than 1 character with Haste hasting the whole party—particularly since if Ninja was banned, that would just be something like a Lancer or a Monk or a Geomancer in their place.  This is also a chapter where TM spillover can really start rolling in benefits.

Chapter 4 probably favours Ninja, because 4 Ninjas is plausible, an argument could be made that they are better than 4 Monk/Lancer/Geomancers with a haste-user, and you're probably only looking at 1 character with Short Charge Meteor (although 2 is doable).  Doesn't...feel completely one-sided though.

So...yeah, I think this favours Time Mage still, pretty heavily leaning on Haste.  There's an argument that you should just go physical characters with haste secondary and largely ignore the rest of TM.  Short Charge Meteor and tossing some spillover to the party is...viable, but hardly mandatory.  Ignoring it for stronger chapter 2 classes is honestly pretty reasonable.
So okay, regardless, mostly on the backs of Haste, Time Mage over Ninja still looks justifiable.

There is still an itching open question, though, on whether it's better to go with low faith and bad internal compatibility (which would drop the value of Haste quite a bit).  I think bad internal compatibility is probably a no—even ignoring haste, various Monk things like Chakra, Revive, healing with Earth Slash want good internal compatibility.  If it's a good internal compatibility party, you can still get an 83% chance to hit haste on a 50 faith character (99% chance if they're best compat).  Also...ehh...is low faith really that important when you have Lancers that can jump to avoid spells locked onto them, and Oracles who can silence song to cancel a spell, and potentially even Time Mages who can cast Reflect to save you from a spell?  (OK, Reflect is a bit of a stretch, 330 Time Mage JP is probably not getting spent on that spell).

Leaving this as Time Mage over Ninja for now, but there are certainly open questions.

---

Monk vs Oracle

So ok, this kind-of needs to get revisited I think.  Oracle handing out Defence Up through spillover is not really that exciting with Attack Up, Concentrate, and Martial Arts, and potentially Equip Gun floating around.  Monk handing out HP Restore from spillover is a big deal—the practical competition going from Elfboy's playthrough is like...Counter Flood.

I was thinking that most people would be setting Yin Yang Magic as their secondary in Chapter 1/2—low JP cost height ignoring ranged secondary.  I had kind-of just mentally dismissed Elemental, though, and reading through Elfboy's Geo playthrough, Elemental was a pretty important secondary (including being a secondary that sometimes got set on classes like Archer just for ITE and AoE).  Another takeaway from that playthrough was that, at least mediocre status moves underperformed.  Steal Heart was learned but never used due to low hit rate.  Mimic Daravon barely used only when there were obstacles in the way—the party just overall had too much damage to justify it.

Yin Yang is obviously better than Steal Heart or Mimic Daravon; actually has a hit rate.  Reasonably learnable earlier in the game.  But even still...it's probably not going to be everywhere, some people are just going to set Elemental instead.  Or Charge.  Going by the number of people who unlocked Mediator on Elfboy's playthrough (not many) it's not going to be automatic to bother unlocking Oracle for a physical side character, so setting Yin Yang might not even be an option for everyone.
So like...Oracle is...sticks (which are largely better than Swords and Monk damage in Chapter 2/3, though don't come with a shield or 4 move) Life Drain (which is very OP of course) and...quality status if you're in the market for it.  (A dedicated Oracle is...perfectly viable).

On the flip side, what happens if you ban Monk?  No HP Restore to whole party from spillover.  No Revive.  General drop in damage options post Yardow (Monk is pretty good damage when Bracer shows up, kind of filler before then, but Earth Slash outdamages Elemental by a decent margin, even if targeting options are worse).  Really no major skillsets on the physical side of the job tree before Draw Out/Dancer.  (Elemental is solid enough, but a step down from Punch Art).

Yeah, this is feeling like Monk > Oracle.


---

So...at the end of all of that...surprising to me but Priest seems pretty solidly #6.  Ninja/Lancer/Time Mage are still a bit of a mess; no movement for now, but they all feel on the border of moving around.  Monk moves up over Oracle.  List as of now:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Monk
11. Oracle
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

I think Oracle vs Geomancer probably needs to be looked at next.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 01, 2020, 09:00:25 AM
Additional thoughts: Oracle vs Geomancer comparsions for the #11 spot yes, but also Samurai should be given some consideration, as one of the justifications for Geomancer before Samurai was "Geomancer is the last high MA classes left, so banning it hits Samurai too."  If Geomancer isn't uniquely high MA, that justification kind-of goes away.

Anyhow...is a dedicated Oracle fine?  Yes, it's fine, so spillover plans with Oracle are still reasonable.

How does spillover Defence Up for everyone compare to, say Attack Up?  Hmm...I feel like it's probably better for mook smashing.  Just due to the formulas--4/3 rounded down for the party...or 2/3 rounded down for the enemy.  The numbers are higher and the rounding is favourable.  If someone with 8 PA and attack up hits someone with defence up, the net result is that they have effectively 6 PA.  That's an extreme case, but on average Defence Up has like...20% more effect than Attack Up thanks to bigger numbers and better rounding.  Spillover defence up is also obviously very nice on anyone where a significant amount of what they do isn't affected by attack up (so like Samurai using Draw Out, Dancer using Dance, even to some degree Geomancer when they are doing Elemental attrition.  Though obviously Attack Up is preferred on things like gunners).  Defence Up, while not being dominant enough to justify banning before Monk, does strike me as being genuine competition for the support slot.

Now, granted, that's specifically against physical mooks.  Attack Up is better at smashing mage mooks.  Attack Up is better at smashing bosses.

Oracle does just happen to have answers for both of those, however.  Life Drain is very good boss smashing, probably overall better than what Geomancer has to offer.  Silence Song tends to instantly delete a mage from the fight, and casts fast enough to cancel their spell.  (There is a stretch of the game when blocking silence is common, however).

Sticks from Oracles are also about as good as swords from Geomancers in Chapter 2-3 (pre-yardow)--though this is with less HP and no shields, of course.  Swords obviously win Chapter 1 and 4 substantially anyhow.

Though...regardless, I feel like there's an argument Oracles bring a little bit more to both Mook Smashing (Defence Up + Silence Song + I guess other stuff from Yin Yang) and also a little bit more to boss smashing (It is very hard to lose to a zodiac when you have life drain.  Like...solo Ramza with Life Drain and not much else beats most zodiacs; I know because that was often my setup of choice for zodiacs on a heavily restricted solo challenge).

So okay, I'm still feeling reasonably comfortable about Oracle > Geomancer.

Oracle vs Samurai, though...part of the argument for Oracle over Samurai was "hit 'em where it'll hurt--Chapter 2".  Based on Elfboy's reports, just get a lot of Geomancers and Chapter 2 will be the on the easy end of chapters.

If we're doing chapter by chapter breakdowns...

Oracles certainly win Chapter 1 (Chapter 1 is their weakest point, but Paralyze is a decent complement to Knights, and notably turns off Counter on Miluda and Wiegraf, which can be a problem for a melee party.  So this isn't just a charity "they win for existing"--no Oracles do get some work done).

Oracles win Chapter 2; actually good in the Chapter, Samurai still struggling with unlocks.

Throughout Chapter 3, Samurai have the ability to be good by popping out to an MA carrier.  If they pop out to an Oracle with a Wizard Rod and Wizard Robe then Koutetsu...hits about as hard as an Attack Up sword hit from a geomancer, but they can pair it with a different support ability like Defence Up.  That said, any fight they don't take seriously and just stick in the Samurai class they are going to hit less hard than a stick-wielding Oracle without Attack Up, and will just generally make the party weaker.  Also, if it's a choice between banning Oracle and banning Samurai, worth noting Oracle brings quite a bit more MA than Geo in this chapter.

I guess it's worth figuring out what Samurai should actually go for.  Takes 94 actions to unlock the class (late chapter 2), but realistically I think you either stop and get some ranged skills (some elementals, some Yin Yang) or stop and get Move+2, cause 3 move no range Samurai would genuinely weaken the party a lot.  So more like 108 actions to get into Samurai.  Maybe more like 128 if you set up both your range and your move+2 (so about the same unlock time as Dancer).  If you go for Koutetsu + Murasame + Kiyomori + Muramasa + Kikuichomoji + Blade Grasp, it's 2960 JP, so...148 more actions.  I guess 121 accounting for higher levels.  Assuming 3 actions per fight on average that's like 40 fights to get all that JP.  So...basically stay Samurai for almost every remaining fight in the game.  Yeah, no.  What can we drop?  Drop Muramasa and Blade Grasp I guess?  If you have two Samurai, one of them can drop Kiyomori and keep one of Muramasa/BG.  This gets us down to 1680 Samurai JP.  Now down to 75ish actions after correcting for higher levels (enough to be out of the class by Bethla, and reap the benefits for the rest of the game).  There is an alternative plan--have your dancers unlock Dancer first, and then unlock Samurai and grind out that JP.  I think I conceptually like the Dancer route, cause you aren't really punished for being in Samurai, you probably want a Dancer or two anyway.  But it does mean unlocking Samurai even later--towards the end of Chapter 3 or start of Chapter 4.

But hmm...what does this fairly powerful post-Bethla setup accomplish?  It's good mook smash, but it's chapter 4, and you could also have a dancer or two for mook smash.  It's good boss smash, easy reaching of highly mobile bosses like Balk and Altima, but is it better than Life Drain?  Hmm...not against Balk or Altima I think.  But in narrow circumstances...maybe?  Let's say you're challenging yourself to beat the game with 2 characters or 3 characters, and don't want Rofel to break your equipment, then yeah, Life Drain's damage is too low to one-shot, use Kikuichimoji to save yourself a bit of money if Rofel breaks your stuff.  Unless you roll the 1/6 then Kikuichimoji breaks and you don't save money.

So ehh...feels like between Life Drain and Dance and other generally solid setups (Geomancers, Mediators, Oracles) that post-Bethla Chapter 4 is kinda already under control by the time Samurai really power spikes, and banning them wouldn't remotely make that part of the game hard.

So this should still work:

11. Oracle
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai

Once deciding on Oracle 11, this genuinely does mean that a 12. Geomancer ban would hit Chapter 2 fairly hard, would hit gunner setups fairly hard, and would hit Samurai in general fairly hard (switching classes for more MA now not really a thing, Samurai setting Elemental for range no longer a thing).  13 Samurai is probably still fine (kind of just reaching the point where Samurai SCC for chapter 3/4 is something actually desireable in the party).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on September 13, 2020, 04:03:21 AM
I checked with a couple of people before deciding to post (again? I dunno) since I feel like I'm hijacking MC's topic. Anyway, feel free to move this to its own topic if you'd like!

So yes, Theorycrafting. Or "Tide likes to analyze games on a deeper level" cause that's what I do. You might be thinking, "but Tide, I thought you don't really like competitive games", and this is true! However, once upon a time (namely when I was younger, all the way up until the late teens), I played a lot of games with multi-player in them, so I'd like to analyze a few (especially weird obscure titles) under a more analytical lens. Especially now that I'm older and have a better grasp of tactics that can be employed. And since it's me we're talking about, let's look at a racing game you probably haven't played or head of: Biker Mice from Mars!

Biker Mice from Mars is a racer where you progress through each track and gain points based on your ranking. You'll get prize money to upgrade your vehicle as you go, but for the purposes of this comparison, I'll be primarily looking at the vehicles that have maxed out Grip/Shots/Engine. Armor is discounted because increasing armor actually decreases the effectiveness of attacking. Everyone additional armor point you gain, the AI gains as well. Assuming you are going head to head, you could buy armor but armor doesn't tend to let you win races, especially when one of them is...well you'll see. This means armor is the only upgrade where it becomes situational versus the other categories, where more upgrades is better.

The game features six characters from the cartoon: Throttle, Vinnie, Modo, Limburger, Karbuncle and Grease Pit. Each racer is graded on a spectrum of 3 visible stats from 1 (worst) to 6 (best). These stats are Top Speed, Acceleration, Handling. Based on the in-game information, they are then ranked as such:

Throttle:
- Speed: 3
- Accel: 3
- Grip: 4

Vinnie:
- Speed: 1
- Accel: 5
- Grip: 6

Modo:
- Speed 4
- Accel: 2
- Grip: 3

Limburger:
- Speed: 5
- Accel: 6
- Grip: 1

Karbuncle:
- Speed: 2
- Accel: 4
- Grip: 5

Grease Pit:
- Speed: 6
- Accel: 1
- Grip: 2.

However, the stats don't tell the complete picture. Each character also a distinct list of differences and they play pretty differently. It's actually pretty amusing to me that a racing game designed during this time period has such variation between it's playable characters. Some of these differences include:

- The way the vehicle operates. Limburger has hovercraft and is thus never effected by terrain that would slow you down. He also doesn't lose speed from going up ramps. Compared to say Karbuncle, who cannot pop a wheeling because he's riding a giant cockroach, and constantly loses speed on negative terrain, and you can see a pretty big difference just based on the character choice

- Weapon attack. Pretty obvious. Each character has a signature weapon that they can use to hamper the other racer, which I assume is correlated to the cartoon. These are widely different, but the most common is a projectile type, which can be fired down a pretty far distance off screen in a straight line. However, even between these, there are differences. Karbuncle has a mutagen ray, that transforms victims hit by it into sluggish mutants for a few seconds. Limburger can actually fire his weapon BACKWARDS against tailgaters.

- Jump. A hidden stat but this stat governs how well a character can take off of ramps. The better the Jump, the more distance you gain, which in turn, often translates to more speed. In order of best to worse: Karbuncle has the best jump, followed by Vinnie, Throttle, Modo, Limburger, Grease Pit. Note that the fall off from Vinnie to Throttle is pretty notable. Grease Pit barely gains much height from jumping and thus is the worst from taking off ramps. Meanwhile, expect Karbuncle and Vinnie to literally fly off the stage in some cases.

- Cornering type. It's a racing game released after Mariokart, so Power sliding exists. However, every character also has a different type of drift and how much speed they can gain from a power slide. From personal experience, Vinnie gains the most speed but also has the most dedicated cornering (he spins either left or right so your direction has to be correct or you'll drift into the corner). This is followed by Karbuncle (who throws a spiked ball anchor), then Throttle (power drift), Modo (hop), Grease Pit (mitigated crashing), Limburger (full stops, then charges up for a burst of speed).

With all of this in consideration, here are more indepth personal looks at each person:

Throttle:
- Is basically Mr. Average. Doesn't have any particular stat he excels at, but also doesn't have any particular stat he's terrible at either.
- His weapon is pretty boring. A straight shot that launches a target upwards and then drops them down. It's also not as useful on Limburger because Limburger can still fly while he's hit and can travel forward, losing almost no momentum
- He drifts and takes jump pretty well but there otherwise isn't anything that's really unique about him.
- Probably the best  beginner type character but is definitely one of the worst as you play more

Vinnie:
- Despite his 1 start speed rating, is by far and away, the fastest character in the game due to his cornering gains and great jump stat. He's only at a disadvantage if he's going down a straight road and the more complicated maps don't give you much of those - especially since Vinnie will be flying over them.
- His other stats tend to be associated with low speed, but in truth, are probably more mixed. You'll be going so fast when you understanding how to use Vinnie that you often have to take corners super early. And since you're going so fast, if you crash into anything, you might actually bounce backwards - depending on the obstacle.
- Requires good knowledge of the course due to a lot of speed coming from cornering. If you're not sure how to take the corner properly, you won't properly drift through them.
- His weapon is unique. It causes his vehicle to jump. There are two parts to it: the first is the actual jump where Vinnie launches himself upwards. The second part - he slams his bike straight down. The catch here is, Vinnie gains additional momentum depending on how much air he has as he's descending. This allows him to actually SPEED UP with his weapon.
- As an actual attack though, it's pretty bad. You either have to be point blank (good luck doing this on Modo) or you have to land on top of them as you descend. Most of the time, you can't see them when you're high up in the air, so it's kind of a crapshoot
- The opposite of Throttle really - a much more expert oriented character. I suspect if I'm playing this with other people now who have played the game before, we'd probably have to ban Vinnie. He's just distinctly faster than everyone else when he's being played by someone who knows where they are going.

Modo:
- The other character who is probably the most newbie friendly, due to primarily one thing: BIONIC CHARGE
- Bionic Charge (his weapon) is absolutely ridiculous. It lets Modo charge at top speed towards the direction he's facing. Anything that gets in his way takes 3 points of armor damage. Note that without upgrading armor, you only have 3 armor points, so it instantly destroys the target's ride and costs them a lot of time, while Modo actually picks up even more time than usual since he's ramming you at top speed.
- At 3 points of damage, it means that Modo is also the only character who will ever gain a benefit from upgrading armor - but only at set intervals. If he upgrades to 6 points of armor for example, he will 2HKO, but enemies need to 6HKO him. Pretty significant!.
- Because it's a straight charge, Bionic Charge can also be used to pick up speed after getting hit by another competitor's weapon OR you can use it like a makeshift Nitro-boost. This actually lets Modo take certain jumps that he otherwise wouldn't be able to and in some cases, even access some short cuts.
- His stat mix otherwise isn't great though...namely his jump and cornering gains are distinctly weaker than his colleagues.
- The less specific cornering type definitely helps beginner players for power sliding, but leaves something to be desired if you're more experienced.

Limburger:
- As noted, he flies a hovercraft. He doesn't lose speed on terrain that other characters will sometimes lose speed on.
- Also as noted, he is the only character that can fire his weapon backwards. It travels less distance than a forward shot, but it's unique to him and let's Limburger shake off tailgating effectively.
- He's really weird to control though. Take turns like you do with other characters and he'll stop for a second before turning. He also ends up turning only 90 degrees in this way. To actually corner, you have to tap the directional button repeatedly, which means he tends to take them very wide.
- His power slide and jump stats are weak too. Overall, he's powerful but very weird. 

Karbuncle:
- His main disadvantage is not being able to pop a wheeling. This means he has no defense against enemy mines or difficult terrain and he can lose speed everywhere on certain courses - especially the water heavy ones.
- His shot does no armor damage but it's as good as draining all the armor points of a target anyway since you can't resist it. You have to wait for it to expire.
- His jump is absolutely crazy. He mainly loses to Vinnie in the speed department because he can't GAIN speed from it. Probably the best villain character.

Grease Pit:
- Once everything is considered, is really bad. Has no real way to gain a lot of speed from corners, his shot is unspecial, and he doesn't have any real strengths other than high top speed on a straight road.


With that, I'd probably rank the characters from best to worst as:
1. Vinnie - absolutely no contest. He beats everyone in terms of speed and doesn't have Karbuncle's major disadvantage. His weapon is also extremely versatile although it straight up sucks if you're actually trying to kill someone with it. So he's great for the main game but probably not a great choice for Battle mode. Would probably need to be straight up banned if you're racing against someone directly without any AI because once he's ahead, it's pretty much impossible to catch up unless the Vinnie player messes up.

2. Modo -  After Vinnie it gets really fuzzy. Because all the other chars (sans Grease Pit) can be competitive with each other in some way. Modo's really strong though. Bionic Charge is as versatile as Vinnie's weapon but with the added benefit of it actually being a great attack. He's also straightforward to use although strategizing your Bionic Charges becomes more important against more experienced players and the longer courses

3. Karbuncle - Between him and Limburger, I think Karbuncle wins. Limburger laughs at him forever on water heavy courses, but Karbuncle can gain a ton of speed on tracks where there are more corners and non dirt roads. It's pretty significant. He also wins on weapon type as the mutagen transformation is just a lot more powerful than stunning someone briefly with a projectile. Karbuncle versus Modo is interesting but Modo being able to straight up destroy Karbunckle if the two are ever close enough together is a problem for him. Unlike with Limburger where you lose maybe a second, getting hit by Modo costs significantly more time. And despite having a better jump stat, not having a weapon to provide speed might also mean Karbuncle can't take as great advantage of ramps. If he get ahead of Modo to the point that Modo can't really catch up without burning a number of Bionic Crash charges, he'll probably win, but that's pretty tricky. 

4. Limburger - He loses to the other 2 primarily because of his weird cornering and poor power drifting. Being able to shoot backwards is fun though and makes it such that lining up to shoot Limburger is hard. Unless your name is Vinnie cause then you just hop over it. Beats Throttle due to having straight up better stats and because his craft mitigates the effectiveness of Throttle's weapon...for some reason.

5. Throttle - As noted, is Mr. Average. He's always technically better than someone else, but doesn't have any real compelling reason to be used since you'd rather just use that other character instead. Also having a random Limburger weakness is weird and does him no favors. Still better than Grease Pit though.

6. Grease Pit - Just badly outstated. What he needed was either a stronger jump or his weapon to have some unique effect. I can understand keeping him bad on corners but there's no reason why he should be the worst jumper and have nothing special about him. Oh boy, he beats Throttle if you're going up against Limburger?? I don't get it.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Tide on September 15, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
Upgrade routes and Item analysis (of the above):

One thing I didn't mention is that every lap you complete, you received an item that the game will randomly give you. Similar to Mariokart, the worse your placement rank is when you cross the line, the better the item is. Technically anyway. There are 5 items in total:

- Cash: Gives you $200 instantly. Doesn't sound like a lot, but consider each track has 5 laps, it's a potential to get up to an extra $1000 - which starts mattering. Pretty much the only item you get while in 1st.

- Turbo: Provides a sudden burst of speed. Best way of using this is right before a jump so you can extend the length of the turbo through your jump. That being said, more powerful with the better jumpers (Vinnie/Karbuncle) and worse with the weaker ones.

- Sheriff Star: Makes you Invincible for a short duration. While active, it improves all your stat parameters sans Jump. You tend to get this around 3rd or 4th place. The speed boost from this though isn't strong enough to make you start jumping off ramps. Best used on straight roads as a result.

- Skull: Generates an earthquake across the entire map, which causes everyone on the ground to slow to a crawl and makes turns basically impossible. This would be a really powerful item like Mariokart's lightning bolt EXCEPT you can dodge this if you are using the right racers. Modo and Vinnie can both use their weapon charges, which bypasses this item's effects. Notably, Modo can still move forward while Vinnie can jump off the ground and still gain momentum if using the drop down from Shooting Star. So yes, as if Vinnie and Modo weren't already good enough, they can also flip this around to benefit themselves if they are willing to blow some weapon charges. One other thing of note is that, the quake does stop Limburger completely in his tracks, even though it shouldn't. He literally gains no momentum the moment the quake starts, so it's extra effective on him.

Timer: Freezes all racers for about 3-4 seconds while the user is unaffected. Because you cannot dodge the effects of the timer, it's the more powerful of the two "effect all" items. One trick that can be performed with the timer is to place mines directly in front or on top of a racer as a frozen. Since when time resumes, you automatically go back to the state you were in before the item was used, if you aren't already in a wheelie position, the mine becomes unavoidable, guaranteeing a few more seconds of delay on your target. Getting the timing on this though is tricky cause mines disappear pretty quick. Incidentally, this also makes Karbuncle the most vulnerable to this  tactic as he can never pop a wheelie. On the other hand, once again, Vinnie can cheat this by taking to the air if he suspects a timer is about to be pulled. Once he's airborne, you won't be able to hit him at all, thereby allowing him avoid this trap set up.

So yes, in case it wasn't clear, even all the items in the game have a pro-Vinnie bias.

Upgrade routes:

Long story short, Engine upgrades are the most important things to have and many of the PCs want to invest in engine first if possible. The trouble of course is that it is also the most costly upgrade and if you're playing 2 players, one players will have much less income than the other. Winning first place and getting 5 cash rolls gives you something like $4000, where as being in second means less cash rolls and only a $2000 prize. So if you're playing with another person, you'll want some temporary benefit to compensate while you wait for the engine. Another thing is, each upgrade gets more and more expensive. Going from engine level 1 to engine level 2 is a $4000 increase, meaning it costs $9000. In that time, other un-upgraded parts will start to look better. While wait and spend $21000 for the best engine if you can get some other useful parts instead?

As noted earlier, all parts sans armor are useful. Armor is entirely situational. Modo basically either wants none or 3 upgrades. Everyone else might want 1 (so they don't get insta-wrecked by an opposing Modo) but in some cases, like Vinnie, you might want 0 since a Vinnie player should be well ahead of everyone else anyway. In Karbuncle's case, full armor upgrades does work out since his weapon doesn't care about armor to slow you down significantly. However, that's a lot of cash to be dumping into something that otherwise doesn't really help you.

General upgrade path for all characters is to do Engine levels 1-3 first, then upgrade another part after. The first 3 engine upgrades cost a combined total of $22000, which isn't terrible if you're constantly 1st. You will get this by the time you're midway through Round 2 and the game has 5 Rounds on Normal. The last upgrades though cost $39000. So saving up for those without touching anything else might not be a luxury you get to do.

Vinnie: Doing 3 Engines first, the all 5 shots before focusing on the last 2 Engine upgrades seems to be the best plan for optimizing speed. As mentioned, Vinnie needs 0 armor upgrades since when a player knows what they're doing, Vinnie will often fly way ahead to be caught. As for tires, you probably won't need them until maybe Round 4 when the tracks get more complicated. His high grip rating + power drifting most of the time means you won't really notice a change in handling until very late. Shooting Star having a secondary speed benefit is huge though and gives the Vinnie player a second option if he can't place first consistently since weapons are considerably cheaper than an Engine boost (but then why are you using Vinnie?)

Modo: Like Vinnie, 3 Engines first. After that, everything into Shot, then a few upgrades to tires. Armor is situational here and you may consider investing around Round 3, but you have to do it all at once. Basically, one stage hazards become more prevalent, having Modo 2HKO isn't too bad of an option since your rivals 6HKO at best. On the other hand, having way more defense to prevent your ride from being wasted starts becoming more of a benefit as the hazards increase. The last few engine upgrades are kinda optional here because Modo already has pretty good base speed - plus Bionic Crash lets you travel at top speed for a few seconds anyway.

Karbuncle: Probably just wants to dump everything Engine. He'll need it too since every 2 track of a round is a water track which basically just spites him. A few weapon upgrades help, if you can spare some cash. Although he can get a benefit from going max armor, as noted, that's a lot of cash to dump on a stat that doesn't directly impact how well you perform. Still, like Modo, investing a couple of levels around round 3 might help out if you can't outmaneuver the hazard since his weapon effectiveness remains the same throughout.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 18, 2020, 08:34:12 PM
Yep, other people posting theorycraft in this thread is totally fine

---

So...I last redid an old FFT tier list which was the "ban classes in the order that will increase difficulty the most".

Now I'm a little tempted to redo another tier list which is "how much do each of these classes contribute to an optimal playthrough", which should look pretty different.  (I got some messages from people  who preferred this style of list).

General rules are:

1. Turboing through the game, no stopping to grind; we are stomping.  If you want calculator JP, better get it in story battles.
2. Low party coordination.  The example that springs to mind is a co-op setting, where three or four humans each control one character, but don't work as a group.  (So...you can equip a chameleon robe on yourself, but you can't force other people in your party to do so, and certainly heavy coordination stuff like The Quickening is just not happening).
3. Generics only.  Just simplifies the list.
4. While it is a stomp, it's not a speedrun.  We don't reset if we miss, we don't avoid using moves cause of animation time.
5. PSX NA version.

note that this tier list will get weird, for instance Knight and Archer might end up ahead of something like Samurai, because going to Samurai, while not the weakest thing to do, is almost never optimal, but using Weapon Guard or Concentrate is reasonable.

Anyway...

1. Wizard How many optimal setups use wizard?  Honestly?  90%-95%.  How much do they use Wizard?  Black Magic in Chapter 1 and often Chapter 2 (it's a fine secondary on summoner for MP reasons, or you might not go straight to summoner), and then the Wizard class with MAU in Chapters 3 and 4.  Wizard from its stats is a...decent MA bump, after accounting for some MA boosting gear about 15%-20% more MA than the next best option, and then MAU is another 33% boost (although rounded down granted) for an overall around...55% more damage with the same abilities--something like that?

2. Summoner Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit are just the best budget spells in the game by a mile, and very portable.  You can coast on knowing a single one of these three for...basically the whole game as long as you go MAU Wizard.  Short Charge+Big Summon is also pretty good; a small damage bump over MAU Ramuh, and a large AoE increase, in exchange for more MP (and a significantly slower build).  Obviously Math Skill can completely eclipse Summon, but if going calc you do lean on your teammates to carry you through a few fights while you learn it, and with the rules the way they are (uncooperative teammates who won't necessarily wear chameleon robes) you may want more than just CT5 (although being a supporting role and running CT5 Pray Faith and CT5 Raise is legit, but that still puts emphasis on summon).

3. Calculator Wizard and Summoner together are basically all you need to stomp the game, but Calc can completely eclipse them in power if you can handle being weak for several fights while you train.  I guess the question is whether anything else should be here instead.  MAU Wizards with Ramuh don't even need Gained JP Up or Move+1 very much (although they will certainly use them, no complaints), nor do they have a lot of use for Item.  They wouldn't mind grinding out Auto Potion at some point, but that's still a lot less impactful than grinding out Math Skill.

4. Chemist So I think the viable options here are Squire, Chemist, Time Mage, and Priest.  Priest contributes almost exclusively to Math Skill.  Chemist and Time Mage can contribute to summon setups.  Squire contributes lesser amounts to every build (and notably Gained JP Up contributes quite a bit to Calc builds, and also contributes quite a bit to short charge+summon builds.  Doesn't contribute a ton to MAU+Ramuh builds because they aren't JP hungry, but neither does Time Mage or Priest).  Feels like definitely not Time Mage or Priest.  So Squire vs Chemist; Chemist is more ignorable than Squire (where you often get spillover JP without trying), but Auto Potion is a huge power spike, and having a couple people with phoenix down drops the risk of full on resets significantly.  Auto Potion isn't the power spike that Math Skill is, but it's also a lot easier to get (just wait till guns come out; toss some guests into Chemist and give them a gun if you want some spillover).

5. Squire I think whichever of Squire/Chemist I didn't pick was going here.  Both Squire/Chemist have a lot to offer just about every build.

6. Time Mage: Teleport is super OP, and if you have a dedicated Time Mage you can reasonably give Teleport to a lot of people through spillover (or Short Charge for that matter).  Dedicated Time Mage isn't unreasonable, since Short Charge Meteor is fine, not as good as Short Charge Summon (7 ctr instead of 5 ctr friendly fire, but hey more damage is cool).  The one thing keeping Teleport in check is that it's just...movement isn't that high a priority for damage mage builds--the most busted builds don't really need movement.  Another useful spillover ability for non-mages (or calculators) is MP Switch.  Short Charge gives a lategame path for summon (while MAU Ramuh is pretty good, Ramuh has a mult of 24, with a 4/3 multiplier for MAU, and a 5/4 multiplier for strengthen from Black Robe, this only gets you to 40, Bahamut has a mult of 46, and you'd pair it with the Light Robe for MP, but that's also a decent HP gain over the Black Robe).  None of this stuff is really super critical path for breaking the game, but it's fine.  Whereas I think the main competition is Priest for their contribution to calculator, but calc's power level is going to be very high with or without them.

7. Priest Pretty sure I had Priest much lower last time as I weighed their contribution to Calc less.  But ehh...the contributions to Math Skill are real (with Holy and Raise being the two best math skill spells).  And the stats...while the stats suck in Chapter 2 where you end up having 7 speed when you want 6 speed, there are also fights where I've picked Priest over other classes to get +1 speed without being stuck on a Green Beret (basically from Chapter 3 forward the speed is almost always an upside).  The other option here is Oracle, which also contribues to Math Skill (though not as much).  Has on paper better overall stats/equipment, but there isn't actually a reason to use them over Wizard (whereas speed is a real reason to use Priest over Wizard).  Oracle also has better overall spells outside of Mathskill (and by spells I mostly mean Life Drain for boss fights.  But Silence Song also has 3-4 fights where it shines).   Although...Holy is a great spell, and also has fights it just kills, and transitions well into mathskill later in the game.  Problem with Oracle is that it's a couple of moves that break a couple of fights, but isn't the plan A battering ram.

8. Oracle We are getting to the point that contributions are small and builds are a little bit niche.  But Oracle is good at having niches.  Life Drain breaks some fights.  Silence Song breaks some fights.  They probably have the second best contributions to math skill.  (If you have uncooperative teammates who won't wear chameleon robes, CT5PrayFaith is still boss, and just about everyone will wear a thief hat, so CT5Paralyze is great).

9. Ninja I'm less and less sold on Ninja when it comes to optimal build paths, since you do have to go through Thief and Archer and suck for a while, and your payoff is being overall worse than a MAU Wizard with Ramuh.  But it does cover some weaknesses of mage builds, notably Roof of Riovanes, you can end the fight before the enemies have a chance to kill Rafa.  (Whereas Summoner builds have charge times, and Mathskill might not be able to avoid hitting Rafa).

10. So now we get to the really minor contributions.  There's stuff that only Ninjas care about (Move+2 from Thief, Concentrate from Archer).  There's budget stuff for mages (Weapon Guard, sometimes you'll start at 199 Knight JP, and have a guest go Knight for spillover, and it's like 20% evade, honestly best of the budget reaction options for mage).  Equip Sword is also sometimes the highest damage option for a Ninja, but it costs 400 JP when Ninjas can easily pick up Martial Arts for 200 JP anyway so...meh.  Excalibur also exists, so one character going Knight in the second half of Chapter 4 just to wear that is completely reasonable (mage or physical character; Excalibur is that good).  It's better-used on a non-generic character so this gets slightly less weight, though.  There's Monk--Monk itself is kinda whatever, but a dedicated Monk can give HP Restore from spillover, Monk offers Martial Arts as an option for Ninjas, and Chakra restoring MP is nice; Monk can also reasonably transition into Ninja as their endgame.  And finally Bard.  Ramza going Bard to make gaining Calculator JP easier (and make the character contribute a lot more to the fight while they're in calc) is...legit, and Angel Song is the best MP restoration in the game.  Hmm...how real is the give the party spillover HP Restore Plan?  Wave Fist (300) + Earth Slash (600) + Stigma Magic (200) + Chakra (350) + Revive (500) + Martial Arts (200) + HP Restore (500) = 2650.  2650/6 = 441.  People start with about 150 in the class so...yeah, you really don't need to overstay in the class to get HP Restore to everyone.  I think this goes to Monk.

11. Knight: So...there's the good but not super powerful RSM for Ninja, which is already stretching the idea of main line power build, or the earlygame placeholder, but easy to get from spillover 200 JP reaction in Weapon Guard, which works on mages which are a fairly main line build (plus Knight having a few other upsides like easiest class for mages to pop into that has a shield and a robe, also Rune Blade when archer has no weapon that boosts  MA, and occasionally Excalibur shenanigans).  Bard to Calc...is honestly more something that I see discussed in theory than played out in practice.

12. Thief: Between a fringe option of dipping Bard before Calc, Move+2 which basically every Ninja will use, and Concentrate which...will be used sometimes but Ninjas will sometimes use Martial Arts, Throw Item, Attack Up, or even Equip Sword instead...Move+2 just seems like the cleanest of them.  It's always good.  It's super free for Ninjas.  It actually boosts Ninja's throw range.  I've seen it in practice way more than Singing Calc.

13. So...ok, how good is Concentrate on a Ninja really?  It...exists, but having recently re-read through Elfboy's Geo/Archer/Mediator playthrough, there was a decent amount of using Attack Up over Concentrate.  And then we can throw in Martial Arts in there as well as another support fighting for Ninja attention.  (Concentrate does boost Throw, though, which Attack Up does not, a factor fairly relevant when the main selling point is boosting Ninjas.  On the flip side, when Ninja is in a supporting role supporting a party of mostly mages, Ninja's main job...other than being Phoenix Down errand boys, is to hit enemy mages and archers that are charging to cancel the charge by killing the target--a role where Concentrate does not add anything.  Ninjas don't really need to kill Feather Mantle'd Knights, the mages can handle those enemies).  Does this mean it's time for Geo to go with Attack Up?  Ehh...I feel like Martial Arts, Throw Item, and Concentrate are still making Attack Up not that big of a deal.  Bard for singing calculator?  Meh.  Honestly?  Samurai, for all that you need to be kind-of weak for the first three chapters, and end up arguably not as good as Summoner overall, Samurai can still bring party diversity.  Kiyomori is the best at what it does.  Blade Grasp is...mechanically solid, just way more expensive than Auto Potion.  Samurai bring instant-speed no friendly fire AoE, which technically neither Summoner nor Calc can boast (Calc having friendly fire, Summoner having charge times).  Although...hold on, Samurai is a fringe option you realistically only ever do on Ramza.  Bard into Calculator is also a fringe option you realistically only do on Ramza, and it...sounds better.  For the first two Chapters you're better than the Samurai path cause you're either a mage or a gun user with a robe who is still not bad at casting magic.  And you're not that bad when you're a singing calculator as Sing is not heavily speed dependent (like...the lowest lows of the Samurai path include 350 Thief JP, which might contribute less to the team than a calculator with Sing).  And obviously after gaining some Calc JP you become a god, so.

14. Samurai And then sure, I guess we get the fringe but semi-justifiable Ramza build paths one right after the other.  See above for comments on Draw Out--yeah, it's overall worse than summon, and does involve being bad for a while, but brings party diversity--Kiyomori, instant speed AoE, Blade Grasp.

15. ok, so it's some combination of Archer/Geo next.  Archer contributes to Ninja...maybe, they might want martial arts or throw item or attack up instead.  They also contribute Charge to training in Chemist (and sometimes Charge Ninja for some assassination fights).  Geo...contributes attack up to...Ninjas sometimes, Monks (who go back to Monk instead of going Ninja) is a solid carrier for Samurai, and a comfortable carrier for Monk.  Ehh...Archer is feeling more main-line here.  Contributing to more optimal paths Chemist/Ninja rather than Ninja/Samurai/Monk.  Concentrate (and Martial Arts) gets picked up while unlocking Ninja, Attack Up is a detour for Ninjas.

16. Geomancer the remaining options are Mediator (held back by the "we are stomping, through efficiently not grinding" ground rules) Dancer, Lancer, and Mime.

17. Mediator Shackled by the rules that were set out for this list (low grind, stomp quickly, any grindy stuff needs to happen in story battles).  Even though it can boost the best builds, it's just slow at doing so, and comes with making yourself weaker in those fights.  The one time it does pay off is Bard->Calc Ramza, where you need to spend some time in Mediator anyway, and probably boost a bit of faith during the 3-4 battles when you're required to be there.  Still...it does things.

18. OK, so the options are Lancer and Dancer.  Lancer can be temporarily strong in Chapter 2 when armour is good, but...not as strong as a summoner, and not really worth unlocking just for that.  You can stick Jump on Samurai to make them suck less.  Dancer...you could stick dance on Samurai or Calculator, but it does involve going through the physical side of the job tree as female (female admittedly being the gender that wants to end up in Samurai or Calc, but you are very weak the whole time you're in classes like Monk and Thief).  Still...I think it's Dancer just for more successfully having a niche.

19. Lancer Lancer still has niches points.  Reasonable damage, invincibility frames, range 8, works ok on weird weapons like Katanas and axes.  Also able to be unlocked in a sane amount of time.

20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 19, 2020, 04:00:28 AM
So...I'm curious now how much classes move between the two lists, so I'm going to take a look.

For the ban-a-thon the list looks like:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Monk
11. Oracle
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
(17.5 Red Chocobos (from Boco))
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime

And for the contribution level to optimal builds the list looks like

1. Wizard
2. Summoner
3. Calculator
4. Chemist
5. Squire
6. Time Mage
7. Priest
8. Oracle
9. Ninja
10. Monk
11. Knight
12. Thief
13. Bard
14. Samurai
15. Archer
16. Geomancer
17. Mediator
18. Dancer
19. Lancer
20. Mime

Wizard
4th place in ban-a-thon
1st place in meta weight

Makes sense.  Wizard is kinda in nearly every build, but not that good solo (medium difficulty SCC).

Summoner
3rd place in ban-a-thon
2nd place in meta weight

Summoner has stuff that somewhat cries out to be banned, but not quite as much as math skill or auto-potion.

Chemist
2nd place ban-a-thon
4th place meta weight

The movement here is basically Chemist sliding under Wizard and Summoner for meta weight.

Calculator
1st place ban-a-thon
3rd place meta weight.

Same here.  Summoner/Wizard moved above it.

Squire
5th place
5th place

Of all the classes to stay in exactly the same place, I wasn't expecting Squire.  (Figured it would be lower in the ban-a-thon than meta weight).  These two lists do use pretty similar rules about JP, learning, though, which is probably why.

Time Mage
7th place Ban-a-thon
6th place meta weight

Priest squeaks above Time Mage in the ban-a-thon because of revival and having a damage spell that doesn't have very high JP costs.

Priest
6th place ban-a-thon
7th place meta weight

Weird thing is I feel like Priest gets overrated by both lists (ban-a-thon because all the better cheap damage spells get banned.  Meta weight because of math skill).

Ninja
8th place ban-a-thon
9th place meta weight

Ninja benefits some from the ban-a-thon, as it doesn't really care about all the mages getting banned, and uses almost entirely physical class stuff (only really cares about Chemist).

Oracle
11th place ban-a-thon
8th place meta weight

Oracle is good at picking out niches, which ups their value in meta weight when most of the main roles like damage and healing have been filled by the really OP classes.

Monk
10th place ban-a-thon
10th place meta weight

Funny coincidence.  But I guess it makes sense; Monk has a big pile of stuff that all has uses, just none of it particularly stands out.

Knight
14th place ban-a-thon
11th place meta weight

Does get overinflated a bit in the meta weight because it's one of the few physical classes that does much for mages.

Geomancer
12th place ban-a-thon
16th place meta weight

Doesn't actually change as many positions as I thought it would from the two formats.  Obviously much better in a ban-a-thon format than a format where it needs to compete with Wizard and Ninja for a class that has stats, and where Attack Up has to compete with everything.

Samurai
13th place ban-a-thon
14th place meta weight

Surprisingly low in both lists.  (Probably for similar reasons that Squire is similarly high in both lists; JP limited formats just hit it hard, and while Ramza going to Samurai is pretty reasonable, a second character going samurai needs to be either male or female and not both like Ramza, so it's very unlikely to have more than one Samurai).

Lancer
9th place ban-a-thon
19th place meta weight

This has to be the largest swing.  Lancer deals damage and is hard to kill.  Other classes deal damage better and contribute more to making you hard to kill.  But ban those classes and....

Thief
18th place ban-a-thon
12th place meta weight

This is unsurprising; Thief can't really stand on their own, but do contribute a bunch to Ninja.

Bard
19th place ban-a-thon
13th place meta weight

Interestingly directly below Thief in both lists (for similar reasons as thief; pretty bad on its own, but has things to offer other builds).

Archer
16th place ban-a-thon
15th place meta weight

Yeah, Archer is probably going to be pretty close to 15th-16th range in most lists.  Never good, but never complete garbage.

Mediator
15th place ban-a-thon
17th place meta weight

For ban-a-thon guns into inviting/breeding Hydras bumps up Mediator.

Dancer
17th place ban-a-thon
18th place meta weight

Kind of held back by the same thing in both lists (going for JP efficiency) and even the ban-a-thon doesn't help it that much, because by the time it's in contention, the hard fights are big bosses with status immunity.  Still better in the ban-a-thon (there's an argument for it being 19th in meta weight, for instance).

Mime
20th
20th
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 19, 2020, 06:26:31 AM
So...feeling like Priest is getting overrated by these lists, is there a ruleset that doesn't overrate Priest?

It's tricky, cause class restrictions inflate priest (revival) but complete lack of restrictions also inflate priest (they work well with math skill).  Kinda need a ruleset that can ban mathskill, but can't ban Phoenix Down.

So...proposed ruleset:

A ban-a-thon, EXCEPT that when a class is banned you can still use up to a certain amount of JP from that class and no more, and can still be in that class to unlock jobs

Question is how much JP to allow from banned classes.

There's an argument for 200.  Sometimes you start with basically that much (199) and the most common class unlock requirement is 200 so even if you're mostly ignoring a class it's not unusual to just end up with 200 JP in that class.  The other logical numbers would be 100 (the minimum starting JP in a class) and 150 (the average starting JP in a class).

I'm a little tempted to set the number at 200 just to finally make a tier list where Squire isn't great, but I think if Ramuh can't be banned that's...going to make the whole tier list "what class best uses Ramuh?" which won't make for a very interesting tier list.  I'm still tempted to push on the high side to make it feel different from the other ban list.  So...150?

So...first before even getting into the list, what meta warping things would just always be legal under the 150 rule?

* Potion+Phoenix Down
* Fire+Ice+Bolt
* Haste
* Paralyze (but notably not Silence Song at 170).
* Hell Ivy (or insert your favourite elemental here)
* Invitation
* Nameless Dance
* Angel Song
* Throw Ball+Shuriken
* Asura Knife

OK, it feels a little weird that end-of-job tree stuff stays legal (songs/dances in particular), cause the idea of 150 JP is that these are low-investment things that most characters will just be able to get on average from spillover, and it's not particularly common to accidentally unlock Dancer or Ninja from spillover.  Also...if the idea here is to allow the use of basically free stuff even after bannings, maybe being in carrier classes should just be...allowed?

A ban-a-thon, EXCEPT that when a class is banned you can still make use of up to 150 JP from that class, and still be in that class, unless the class is an end-of-jobtree class (Bard, Dancer, Ninja, Calculator, Samurai, Mime), which once banned can't be used at all

OK, I don't see anything too wierd about this ruleset at a glance (and as a bonus it would actually be really straighforward to do a playthrough, whereas with the first ban-a-thon unlocking classes was a bit...abstractly defined).  There's definitely some weirdnesses about this ruleset--it's maybe going to underrate a class like Wizard, cause a lot of its best features (Bolt 1, stats) aren't bannable (although Bolt 2 and MAU are bannabale, so Wizard will be fine, just maybe not top 4).

Alright, that's the ruleset, going to start a list in the next post.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 19, 2020, 08:42:54 AM
1. Calculator Anyway, it's still a ban list.  And there's an obvious first ban.

2. Chemist I don't think the second ban changes either.  Pretty common for people to ban themselves from using Mathskill or Auto-Potion with X-Potions.  If it's a solo challenge, there isn't really a question of what's more important to ban, for instance; ban Auto-Potion not Summon.

3. Summoner Yep, Shiva/Ifrit/Ramuh still need to go, and I literally tuned the ruleset around being able to ban them.  So far first three bans mirror the old list.

4. ... So now things get interesting.  The ban here with full class bans was Wizard, but that won't actually get rid of Fire/Ice/Bolt or even the carrier now.  However, the fact that you can just...be a mage with Bolt 1 means it's still pretty attractive to be a mage for at least most of Chapter 1 and 2.  And later when Bolt 1 isn't an "I win" button you can swap it for Phoenix Down.  Which...is really making me think Time Mage here.  Second easiest SCC, and the rules just cover a lot of their weaknesses; they get to use Bolt before they have Meteor, and Phoenix Down to cover their lack of revival.

5. ... Ninjas are kinda popping out at me as a fairly easy SCC that gets to mix in stuff like Phoenix Down and Move+2.  But...also kind-of not jumping out at me, because in chapter 1 and 2 instead of being a mage with Bolt 1, you are a thief with a 4 WP dagger.  So...I'm kind-of looking at mages, kinda not looking at Wizard due to how the rules are a little Wizard unfriendly, and...kind of looking at Oracle, actually, since they're a lot better at using Bolt 1 in early chapters (ability to use Thunder Rod, more MA, less speed).  They also gain a lot more from Phoenix Down not being bannable than Priests do.  From what I recall, the early chapters on the Oracle SCC were the hard ones, and Chapter 4 was like the zero reset chapter.  Give them Bolt to plow the early chapters and well...yeah.

6. ... So...Ninja is kind-of looking like something that might need a ban, but also kind-of not because you're still trading a pretty bad chapter 1-2 (while you unlock the job and are in classes bad at using Bolt) for a powered up chapter 3-4.  Squire isn't banned, but...with all the 50-100 JP abilities remaining legal, banning Squire doesn't make early chapters actually hard or anything.  So I guess the question is whether a Wizard/Priest multiclass is a problem.  And...I think yes?  Wizard SCC dominates chapter 1 and 2, and then drops off in Chapter 4 only because they don't ignore evade (and charge times plus not ignoring evade is a bad combo--you don't know how many spells to lock onto a target).  Priest has Holy, which does ignore evade (Holy also having...across the board slightly better numbers than Wizard's Flare) and gives them that endgame they were missing.  I guess the question is whether it's more important to ban Holy, or more important to ban Bolt 2, Bolt 3, and Magic Attack Up.  And...I think it's the latter?  Bolt 2 with MAU deals almost double the damage of Bolt 1 without MAU, which makes Wizard dominance last all the way until enemies with white robes show up.  And also, if Wizard is the banned class and not Priest, that presumably means you're spending a lot of your time in Priest (building up the skillset), which is also going to make you a lot less impressive than someone training up Wizard.  The problem with the Priest/Wizard combo was too much earlygame power into still pretty good endgame power (but less endgame power than a Ninja or Samurai build for instance).  Pulling back much harder on the earlygame power seems reasonable, so Wizard.

7. Ninja Yeah, Ninja with access to Move+2, Phoenix Down, and just about any support it wants?  Needs a few teammates to carry it through a few low-power levels in Thief, but it seems like the clear ban target here.  Weaker earlygame than a Priest with Bolt, sure, but unlocks Ninja in mid chapter 2 and stays stronger for basically the whole game.

8. Squire ok...so let's just review the current situation.  Chapter 2 Priest with a Wizard Robe and Triangle hat deals...53 damage with Bolt 1?  59 with Wizard Mantle?  This is kida middle of the road, slightly more than gun damage (36) quite a bit less than a Lancer using Jump (90-108 range).  Slightly more than Earth Slash (48).  Less than a Samurai with a Wizard Robe using Koutetsu (84).  Geomancy should be around 36.  Mages typically have a very good chapter 2 thanks to Wizard Robe.  Lancer is known for having a very good Chapter 2.  Samurai is not known for having a good chapter 2 (wizard robe helps) though you're unlikely to load up on multiple Samurai, due to wanting to run female characters for the MA, but needing to send them down the physical job tree.  These actually seem kinda balanced with each other, which...makes me think Squire to kill Gained JP Up hits actually all of these builds and so maybe that's just the pick.

---

After that...hmm...still thinking.  I will note having a ruleset that gives an unbannable earlygame baseline is making me lean more towards banning slower lategame stuff as a higher priority.  So I am looking towards higher JP investment classes like Samurai and Lancer as possible next bans.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 20, 2020, 07:02:21 PM
9. Between the two of Lancer and Samurai, with Gained JP Up banned Lancer looks like the obvious pick.  Ramza samurai is pretty good, but multiple samurais involves sending a lot of female characters through the physical job tree (and with gained JP up banned that's going to be slow).  Whereas 3-4 Lancers is actually sounding like a fine party.  I guess Priest is the big question mark.  Lancer caps out around 264 with jump at level 30 (power sleeve, twist headband, bracer on an Equip Spear geo).  In practice less than that cause they need to equip speed boosting gear.  With Thief Hat 228.  Priest at level 30 caps out around 420 (Wizard with some MA gear, 108 gems using Holy), but in practice usually less than that if they're training in Priest proper or need to equip for MP.  Let's see...378 equipping for MP in Wizard.  252 equipping for MP in Priest.  I guess...how much JP does it really take Priest to get everything they want out of white magic?  600 (Holy), 280 (esuna), 70 (shell), 70 (protect), 180 (raise), 50 (cure), 180 (cure 2), 400 (cure 3), 400 (magic defendUp) = 2230.  There's some fringe options (700 JP 10 CT Cure 4 which doesn't heal that much more than Cure 3, 400 JP Regenerator), But I think the moral of this story is that Priest can be done learning Priest JP stuff and off to Wizard before Lancer is done with Jump stuff (especially if Lancer is planning to pick up Dragon Spirit).  Priest in Wizard also keeps revival, and the best non-banned healing.  Lancer in Geo can't keep using Phoenix Down if they want Jump.  If Lancer wants to be able to revive and have decent Jump damage they (unironically) go Priest with Jump (Priest physical attack is only slightly less than Geomancer).  The advantages Lancer has is that Priest until late in Chapter 3 can only Holy once per fight, and for the rest of the game is mostly stuck on two Holies.  Lancer has more range (8 instead of 5).  Lancer is immune while jumping instead of taking 1.5x damage like Priest while charging.  Lancer has more HP.  But back to Priest for a bit there's the X-factor of Priest builds getting access to a range of sub-150 JP mage things, like Bolt 1 (100 damage AoE if you have Wizard stats, with low enough MP cost that it can be spammed; obviously has weaknesses, gets walled by white robes for a few fights, and is evadeable, but pretty good at points).  Also Haste, either before or after they're done with gaining Priest JP (Time Mage is only a slightly worse carrier than Wizard).  Not that Lancer can't learn/set haste, but it involves unlocking Time Mage and not setting Phoenix Down, and their MP is pretty low.

Priest I think?  Jump is probably overall better than Holy (Holy has damage, Jump has range, durability, and no MP cost).  But it's not a blowout; in some fights the added damage is more important than the downsides on Holy.  And Priest has a lot of other things going for them (can go to a carrier and still keep revival, comes with good healing, makes good use of Bolt1 and Haste which still have moments of really shining).

10. Lancer With Priest being 9th, Lancer should slide pretty easily into 10th.  Dominant levels of strength in Chapter 2 and 3.  Chapter 4 is when if you put things into a spreadsheet Monk maybe looks better, but then you actually play the game, and half the enemies in Chapter 4 float or wear Earth Clothes.  Samurai without Gained JP Up probably contribute, but don't seem like they threaten to make up half the party (which does seem like something that could happen with Lancer/Monk)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on December 22, 2020, 12:09:04 AM
One idea to nerf Priest's rankings would be to just use the first set of generics that the game generates for you, instead of rerolling for optimum brave/faith/zodiac compatibility. That would be a cross the board nerf for spells, but especially for healing/buffing ones, like most of White Magic.

As a general matter I think your general assumptions (PSX NA version, generics only, full mechanics knowledge and high faith wherever applicible) is inevitably going to skew heavily towards the mage classes because they have far and away the best skillsets for anyone who understands how all the game mechanics works - magic feels like it was balanced around the obtuseness of Faith and charge times, both things that I've seen a lot of FFT novices struggle with. Moreover class mixing helps a lot to cover for the weaknesses of individual mage classes, so they all wind up ranking better than on, say, a pure SCC difficulty list.

Most of the special characters only join in chapter 4 so they'd be hard to work into these analyses even if you wanted to, but I would imagine factoring in Agrias would benefit a bunch of the physical classes, especially since Holy Knight is a kinda underwhelming class statistically so she probably wants to spend most of the game in various carrier classes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 24, 2020, 04:38:02 PM
As a general matter I think your general assumptions (PSX NA version, generics only, full mechanics knowledge and high faith wherever applicible) is inevitably going to skew heavily towards the mage classes because they have far and away the best skillsets for anyone who understands how all the game mechanics works - magic feels like it was balanced around the obtuseness of Faith and charge times, both things that I've seen a lot of FFT novices struggle with. Moreover class mixing helps a lot to cover for the weaknesses of individual mage classes, so they all wind up ranking better than on, say, a pure SCC difficulty list.

You're not wrong, but it's also just...the way of playing FFT I feel most comfortable commenting on.  My first playthrough of FFT I had Elfboy and Excal sitting next to me explaining faith and CT mechanics, so I don't really have first-hand experience with what it's like not knowing the mechanics of the game.  (These mechanics also get explained in the tutorial, though very few people willingly chose to do the tutorial).

Though...lack of knowledge of mechanics can certainly strike physical as well as magical classes (I know people who had low brave female monks on their first playthrough, and if you aren't reading a guide you just...probably won't even unlock most of Ninja/Samurai/Calculator/Dancer/Bard.  And the newbie thing to do is use "best fit" which equips geomancers with axes and HP clothing over damage clothing, it's a mess).

To be clear, though, my concern about priest being high was not a concern about mages generally being high.  It was more that Priest being higher than some of the other mages didn't feel quite right.  (Specifically Time Mage and Oracle both nearly always feel better in an actual practical playthrough--and that's something the first two lists did not capture, but the third list has successfully captured, so the third list is a success so far).  Priest being higher than, say, Monk is largely expected.  Their skillsets do similar things, mixture of healing, damage, and revival, but Priest has the easier SCC, and Priest gains more from being able to multiclass than Monk does.


(I'll probably continue the list in a week or so after I get back from my trip--I just paused cause I'm not sure if #11 should go to Monk or Samurai.  A party with 5 monks sounds justifyable, but a party with a couple of characters using soft-banned classes like Wizard to cover the earlygame while the rest of the party jets for Samurai also sounds reasonable; going to need to think about that one).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 28, 2020, 05:27:10 AM
So...alright, Monk vs Samurai.

Samurai without gained JP Up unlocks after 72ish actions, but I would suggest taking a bit of extra time (83 actions) to get Move+2 from Thief.  Getting all important abilities from Samurai is 2960 JP, 121 actions...and that puts us basically over budget (50ish fights in the game, assuming 3 actions per fight is 150 actions, we're at 204).  Cutting Muramasa and Blade Grasp gets us down to 69 actions within Samurai, which is still very tight (152 actions) leaving basically no room for taking Draw Out onto high MA classes.

There is a bit of a trump card here though in spillover JP.  Send three characters to Samurai, and suddenly 204 total actions becomes 136 (or 152 becomes 101).  This leaves quite a few fights in which you can be a Draw Out Wizard/Geomancer.

One quick observation, though, banning Monk would impact Samurai plans to a degree—HP Restore is really nice for Samurai cause you need 550 Monk JP to unlock the class, and like...sure Blade Grasp exists, but we've already been talking about skipping it to have more time outside of Samurai.  Counter Flood is an X-factor, slightly worse than either, but still pretty good and you get to have good stats while you learn it.

So ok, let's get some numbers.  I guess one question mark I have is killing bosses like Velius, which look like they could be a sticking point, and Monk might bring the single target damage.  Monk with power sleeve, bracer, and a punch deals 171 damage at around the level you fight Velius (level 15-18).  Wizard with Wizard Rod, Holy Miter, Wizard Robe, and Red Shoes using Koutetsu deals 180 damage.  Monk can (and should) set Attack Up to make their number 225 damage.  Magic Attack Up is banned.  Although I guess if we're assuming bracer we should assume magic gauntlet (192 Koutetsu) and then the best replacement for magic attack up is Equip Shield for Ageis Shield (204 Koutetsu).  Granted Monk numbers are unarmed punch numbers with high brave—if they need to wave fist it's more like 133 without attack up, 175 with attack up.

Worth noting that if we wanted to hit physical blitz strats against Velius, looks like banning Geomancer would hurt more than banning Monk, actually.  (Geo sword damage is close to Monk punch damage, but whichever one is slightly ahead at that point in the game, adding Attack Up will be the difference maker).

Ok, well anyway I'm reasonably impressed with Samurai numbers here.  If Koutetsu single target damage is matching or maybe even beating Monk single target damage, that's pretty good news for Samurai, as Koutetsu is AoE, ignores evade and Samurai has several moves that deal more damage than Koutetsu.

Granted, Samurai needs to be more than just a little bit better than Monk, cause some of the party goes to the mostly banned Wizard early on to cover the earlygame for the Samurai path and these early Wizards end up in...probably Chemist with Haste and Phoenix Down.  Or maybe even just Attack Up Geo for assassination missions (these characters will be female, and high faith, so not the greatest Geos, but...functional—like 10% less PA after gear, and similar elemental damage; like people did use some female Geos on the SCC for fractionally better elemental damage even though arguably it's probably not correct).

11. Samurai yeah, the characters that start out with no JP (chilling in Wizard to cover early weakness) don't seem like they end up too weak in the long run.  Needing to be high faith is justifiable because of Haste.  And Samurai seem like they do end up a pretty substantial amount better than Monk.

12. Well, it's between Monk and Geomancer.  And...this isn't as much of a no-brainer as I was expecting.  Geomancers bring more blitz damage with Attack Up.  Furthermore, Chapter 2 is a relative low power point for Monk, so you might still want, say, 1 wizard.  But where does a female high faith wizard go afterwards?  Probably to Geomancer, or Chemist with Attack Up, which also uses Geomancer.

So...the advantages of Geo is more flexibility to go into mage classes early on, and more singletarget melee damage, and Elemental has a  lot of nice features (never misses, occasionally hits AoE, infinite vertical).  The advantages of Monk is serious range damage through wave fist and earth slash.  (Earth slash being ignore evade and AoE, but a lot of enemies in late chapter 3/much of chapter 4 being immune to earth).  Also Monks bring healing with Chakra.  Geos can technically ice heal with Ice Shield+Ice Brand in chapter 4, or black magic and fire/ice shields in Chapter 3, although technically none of these healing tricks are bannable, but Monks can also earth clothes+earth slash heal, which is better, and would be banned by a monk ban. Both can get revival of course with phoenix down, but Monks are also able to lean on their Revive skill and still set stuff like Haste, although there's still a strong argument to set Phoenix Down anyway (never misses, infinite vert).  Monk also get HP Restore for the whole party, which is...probably better than Geo's option (Counter Flood).

So the damage doesn't feel super definitive (higher melee damage vs higher range damage) but other parts feel like they lean monk (Monks bringing better reactions like HP restore and better healing options).  The big selling point of Geo is that if you want early Wizards, Geo is a better exit for high faith female characters; but how many Wizards do you actually need?  Now that Samurai is not in the picture, you can send Ramza to Wizard and then have Ramza end up in Monk later (having high PA and MA you aren't losing either Wizard or Monk performance this way).  Also, while it doesn't help with fights like Velius, you can pick up Concentrate and it's not a bad alternative to Attack Up.  I think this goes to Monk.

13. Geomancer I don't think very much changes from the other ban list when we did Monk/Mediator/Archer/Dancer tests.  The X-factors here is that Chapter 1 has an “I win” button in Wizards, and if you want guns you can just go to Chemist with a restricted skillset (whereas unlocking Mediator was not a given).  More and easier access to guns boosts both Attack Up and Charge, but Attack Up is the stronger of the two.  Also the whole “geo's a decent exit path if you make an early wizard to cover chapter 1” (Also, Counter Flood might just be the best reaction left, and geo's a pretty good class to be in, so restricting them to only knowing a single elemental for the whole game actually matters).

14. Archer So...what's left?  Archer, Mediator, Thief, Knight, Dancer, Bard, Mime.  Yeah, Archer seems like the obvious thing to limit here.  Charge with guns sure, but also Arrow Guard is a solid reaction, and Concentrate is still relevant for using swords.  Stuff that mattered in the hard ban list like “Knight being good in Chapter 1” doesn't matter too much here.

15. so...we're definitely getting to the point that the soft-banned classes are probably going to be plan A.  Wizards into Geomancers with Bolt 1 secondary.  Ice/fire healing with base black magic.  Maybe guns...probably from Chemist rather than Mediator despite only having max 150 JP in item.  The secondary slot is probably dominated by soft-banned classes (Fire/Ice/Bolt, Phoenix Down, Haste). 

So what remains that CAN be banned?  Thief can add Move+2.  Dancer smashes some fights, but they are often not the problem fights.  Knight adds some minor options—Equip Shield is fine, solid on a Chemist.  Weapon Guard is also fine.  Equip Armor as a fringe possibility for Monk.  Neither of these do much if you're sitting in Geomancer, but they're good in other classes.

Thief feels like the thing to ban here.  Seems like the damage from physical attacks is going to matter against bosses, which pushes people towards melee (Geo or Monk with mostly just their physical).  Also potentially ice healing with Ice Brands.  Adding Move+2 helps this game plan a lot for melee.

16. Dancer Weapon Guard and Equip Shield are cool, but they mostly help against non-bosses (unlike Move+2 which helps a decent amount against bosses).  Dancer trivializes non-bosses way harder than weapon guard.  Bard exists for Move+3, which does something similar to Move+2 and thus contributes more to bosses than Dancer does, but the investment is large, the male-only restriction does hurt given that you're spending a bunch of time in mages, and the low PA growth in all the unlock classes is a little unattractive since that will reduce your melee damage.  All that effort for a movement bonus.  Whereas Dancer completely changes how fights play out, and dance comes online much faster than Move+3 due to costing a lot less JP.

17. Knight Equip Shield with a few classes like Monk and Chemist is legit.  Weapon Guard on all the classes other than Monk and Chemist seeing as all the other reactions are banned.  Battle skill even has some relevance on boss fights (speed breaking bossses to 1 speed with guns is a strategy that exists; probably relevant on Altima, maybe even worth considering on Adramelk or Zalera; Weapon breaking could be considered in a couple fights...but probably not, don't actually think these playthroughs are hard enough to justify rolling the dice that hard and using a base 30% hitrate move).

18. Bard yeah, Move+3 exists and is very good, and a few songs are legit; Nameless Song of course, but also Battle Song for PA+1 is pretty legit especially since you can still use Monk for their melee attack and it scales quadratic.  But man, Bard costs a lot of JP.  Unlocking Bard is about 74 actions, but then actually getting Move+3 is another 60 actions (assuming you learn no songs, but you will learn some songs)—the 60 Bard actions will go by much faster than other actions because of Bard mechanics, but Move+3 is still looking like it'll be part-way through Chapter 4.  Unless you make multiple Bards for spillover, but then you have like...multiple male summoners with Bolt 1, and that doesn't sound great either.

19. Mediator Destroyed by post-ban Chemist still wielding a gun, and still being able to use Phoenix Down.  Invitation still does some cool stuff with maybe inviting a Tiamat or getting Elemental guns more easily, but Invitation falls under the category of un-bannable skill (100 JP).  So...what's left is brave/faith altering (doesn't even do that much when geomancer attacks and gun attacks depend on neither brave nor faith, and raising faith for Fire/Ice/Bolt is super slow and doesn't make much sense for moves that will drop off in the lategame anyway).

One of Mediator's few saving graces, I guess, is their PA growth, which, while not good is a lot better than Chemist.  So you could willingly go for a slightly worse skillset in fights where you want to use guns in order to keep your PA high for when you need to swap back to Geomancer.  And if you're going that route then sure, you do end up caring about the Mediator skillset not being banned.  Same, I guess, if you want to wear robes for extra castings of spells like Haste, as Chemists can't wear robes but Mediator can, so you'd rather the Mediator skillset not be banned in that case.  And...I guess with Charge banned and if you go for low faith making Haste not good, Talk Skill does become the best secondary for a Chemist (most other classes would use item, though).  Equip Gun I guess is also decent, but undermined a bit by the fact that you can also just jobswitch to Chemist, and Item is probably the secondary you wanted to set anyway.

Does any of this save Mediator from losing to Bard or Knight?  I doubt it.  "Maybe you'll use Mimic Daravon" vs "Maybe you'll grind out Move+3" or "Maybe you'll use Equip Shield on a Chemist so you can ice heal them"

20. Mime


---

Ok, so reacting to this ruleset--overall I think I like the feel of it?  It kind-of captures two things I feel to be true from observing people playing FFT (people self-ban from a few things like Math Skill and Auto-Potion, but also some stuff is literally just free JP wise and tends to crowd out weaker options that are not free).

Some of these ratings do still feel...odd to me.  I think maybe because I've never made a tier list where some of these classes were this high or this low.  (Not used to seeing Oracle as high as 5th or Mediator as low as 19th, for classes that immediately jump out.  But the logic actually feels fairly tight on both of those classes.  I'm a lot less sure about middle classes, like the exact ordering of Wizard/Ninja/Squire/Priest/Lancer for example.  Or the exact ordering of Samurai/Monk/Geomancer, still thinking if I want to reorder some of those).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on December 28, 2020, 06:33:53 AM
I'll just say that was a very interesting read, and that ruleset (ban = don't spend more than 150 JP, but you can use the class as a carrier) seems pretty cool and reasonably accurate to a "I'll let myself pass through but not linger too long in classes I've decided not to use because I used 'em last time" kind of playthrough, which I think matches how people would generally impose mixing up classes anyway.

My only minor comment is that I'd definitely be down for some Geomancer hype with the constraints you've set up.  If some light grinding is factored in, then sure, I'll take Monks or Samurai over them, but with the fairly strict "we are motoring through these story battles and not bopping each other while a survivor cowers in the corner" rules, Geomancer looks very appealing.  They come online extremely fast and have a Ninja-lite style of being able to safely chip from afar while also slapping decently hard when coming in up-close, and can run Phoenix Down/Potion or the like on the side.  I'd be inclined to move 'em up to #10, ahead of Lancer, but that might just be me.

I wonder what a playthrough of this style that went deep into the banlist (15+) would look like.  A lot of PD sandbagging that eventually turns into a pile of Bards singing and moving quickly as they used useful 150 JP abilities from other classes I guess.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 31, 2020, 03:49:23 AM
My only minor comment is that I'd definitely be down for some Geomancer hype with the constraints you've set up.  If some light grinding is factored in, then sure, I'll take Monks or Samurai over them, but with the fairly strict "we are motoring through these story battles and not bopping each other while a survivor cowers in the corner" rules, Geomancer looks very appealing.  They come online extremely fast
Ehh...Geos don't really come online any faster than Monk.  By the time you could get a Geomancer, you already have 350 JP in Monk and thus have Wave Fist if you want it.  If you skip all elementals and rush for attack up from Geomancer you could have Earth Slash from Monk skipping everything else (600 JP).  Not to mention geomancy is not cheap--150 JP per geomancy adds up pretty fast if you want your geomancy to be relevant in more than one map.

Don't get me wrong, I'm critical of Monk's high JP costs compared to mages, but Geo is in a pretty similar JP bracket to Monk.  Not super expensive, but kind-of expensive.

Monk also has a higher damage melee attack than Geo in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.

Like...Geo SCC has a slightly easier time in Chapter 2 than Monk, thanks to some edges like they can wear hats and have 4 move, and it's a really good chapter for hitting two+ targets with elemental, but Monk and Geo aren't that far apart in Chapter 2.  Monk if they were to get Equip Armor from Knight for Chapter 2 would be stronger than Geo in Chapter 2 due to having the HP advantage.  (I'm focusing on Chapter 2 here, cause I assume by Chapter 3 you are going to have JP).

(Now Samurai on the other hand, yes, is in a much slower JP bracket than Monk or Geomancer; this makes Samurai very hard to place since they have the most expensive but by this point highest power stuff).

Quote
I'd be inclined to move 'em up to #10, ahead of Lancer, but that might just be me.

Lancer is a beast in Chapter 2 even with no JP.  Armour from Agrias and Gaffy can put you about 100 HP above clothes-users like Geomancers, and there's a 9 WP spear (best sword in the Chapter is 8 WP, so the 9 WP spear is effectively the best weapon in the chapter) and Jump is 50% more damage than a spear attack and it requires no JP to use melee range jump.  (And they have higher base PA than Geo, which matters in Chapter 2 cause Power Sleeve isn't out yet).

Again, focusing on Chapter 2, cause I assume by Chapter 3 you've actually gained some JP.

---

I dunno, I'm open to the argument of "why not get strong right away?"  But I'm not convinced that Chapter 1/2 Geo really has that much of an edge over Chapter 1/2 Monk or Lancer.  (Pretty big edge over earlygame Samurai, though, yes).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 24, 2021, 11:27:56 PM
So...I decided to put the various ways of ranking FFT classes into a flowchart.

Consider this a first draft, since I don't actually know the SCC difficulty rankings all that well (apart from the half or so of SCCs I did myself).  Would love to hear feedback from people who've done more SCCs than I have (NEB?)

(https://i.imgur.com/Ku1dVpM.png)

I also added a few lists that I should probably think about in more depth (carrier rankings and skillset rankings; kinda just spitballed those; if anyone sees seriously out of place classes in those let me know).

And I...slightly changed the rules of the "soft ban" list so that gained JP Up can't be banned and Invitation can be banned.  Moving Squire Down, Mediator up a bit, and justifying Samurai's position.

I guess the new soft ban rules can be formalized as...  "everyone can use 200 Squire JP and Chemist JP even if those two are banned (more than other classes cause those two unlock the whole job tree) and 150 JP from the immediately unlockable classes (Knight, Archer, Priest, Wizard).  Jobs with low unlock requirements can still be used as carriers."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on February 25, 2021, 04:14:26 AM
That flowchart is amazing.

I may have more intelligent comments later, but for now, just had to put that out there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 25, 2021, 05:04:44 AM
Ok, actually writing down my thoughts on the carrier list.  This proved a lot less straightforward than I thought it would mostly because primary skillsets are (correctly) often factored in when considering how good of a carrier a class is.

1. Wizard is obvious

2. Ninja is obvious

For 3 and 4 I went back and forth between various options (including Priest and Geomancer).   I settled on Oracle and Time Mage for a few reasons.  They are very solid magic carriers (in a game where magic carriers are a lot more important than physical carriers) and they offer significantly better skillsets than black magic (or Geomancy, for that matter).  I'm...not sure Oracle over Time Mage is correct, though.

Oracle makes a decent carrier cause their stats and equipment are a little better than Time Mage's overall (better equipment, worse stats, but...overall better).  And they can refill their own MP with Spell Absorb, cast Pray Faith on themselves if they're carrying a faith based skillset, use Life Drain in the many situations where Life Drain is good.  They are probably better at doing supportive actions towards Summon Magic, for example (Pray Faith when that's good, Spell Absorb when out of MP, Life Drain against Zodiac bosses so Summon doesn't need to bother with Lich).

Time Mage makes a decent carrier cause their primary is better than Oracle's Primary.  Even without Short Charge, if you're a Time Mage with Draw Out, for example, and you fail your teleport you can just...haste yourself, which as a draw out user you probably care about more than Oracle's tricks.  With Short Charge they can use Meteor.  There's an argument that Summoner/Time Mage is better than Summoner/Oracle, not because Time Mage does anything really to support the Summoner skillset (summoners don't want any of Time Mage's buff spells), but because of Meteor.  There's also Time Mage/Chemist, which is an excellent support character while not giving up damage (whereas an Oracle/Chemist would be giving up damage).  Calculator...probably likes Oracle more than Time Mage, but doesn't like either one very much.

Hmm...should probably reverse the order of these two; more of the skillsets that can be carried seem to lean Time Mage.

3. Time Mage

4. Oracle

5. Chemist ...I mean, this is a bit of a hard one to place.  But...guns and Throw Item.  Just thinking back to co-op games I've played and how often Chemist just comes up.  Don't really have a hard logical argument for the exact placement of this one other than "I feel like I see Chemist carrier kinda often".  Although...honestly, I've seen Chemist carrier more often than Oracle carrier if I'm being completely honest.  But on the flip side, Chemist carrier also usually a stepping stone and not the final destination, just pretty good for a while.

Next clump is a bit of a mess.

Priest is a good carrier for Calculator, cause a lot of times the thing you care about as calc is speed.  But it's also a miserable carrier for most other MA based skillsets (Summon, Draw Out, Black Magic).  It's fine for Yin Yang I guess, YYM doesn't care about the low MA, does like the speed.  Priest as a carrier has situational uses for Time Magic if you're trying to deal with one specific story fight where you need to speed match with a fast enemy to drop a meteor on them.  Also worth noting Priest has PA, can honestly get away with being a carrier for Jump since okayish PA multiplier, high speed, able to wear clothes, nice primary (revival--if your Lancer wants revival it's not like they're going to Chemist--terrible PA or Monk--terrible revival).  I guess the primary revival means I'm probably underselling it as a Samurai carrier too.  (Again, not like your Samurai wants to go to Monk or Chemist for revival).  And also primary revival honestly makes this at least a little bit interesting for special characters like Agrias with Equip Sword.

Geo is an okay carrier for everything; it can carry physical or magical stuff, and offers a shield and 4 move and an acceptable primary in exchange for notably lower stats than dedicated magic/dedicated physical carriers like Wizard/Ninja.   Also has sword, can be a carrier for Agrias.

Summon offers a really good primary, slightly slower speed (which can actually be good for speed matching slow enemies--primarily enemy summoners).  Most of the time the slower speed just hurts so much though.  So it can be a situational carrier like Priest where you pull it out for specific fights for speed manipulation.  Most of the dual class combinations that would be interested in Summoner as one of the two skillsets would not pick Summoner as the carrier, however...with a few notable exceptions.  Summoner/Chemist picks Summoner; that's probably the best argument.   Summoner/Samurai picks Summoner--kind-of a weird dual class cause they do similar things, and both want a ton of JP.  Summoner/Calc picks Summoner (but Summoner/Calc is a really weird combo).  Summoner/Bard picks Summoner (even weirder).

Howeverrrrrrrrrrrrrr....  The way speed works, though, there's also just windows when Summoner is really, really good, because they've reached a speed point where they match Wizard.  (Five levels between 13-17 when they are speed 6 and other classes haven't hit speed 7, four levels between 31-34 when they are speed 7 and other classes haven't hit speed 8.  Two levels between 50-51 where they are speed 8 and other classes haven't hit speed 9).  During these small level windows they're...better than Oracle, better than Time Mage, honestly basically Wizard tier for a few levels (still worse MA than Wizard, but way better primary).

Mmm...yeah, ok, I'm probably underselling Summoner.

It still belongs in the same clump as Geomancer/Priest.  These are mostly situational picks you'll bust out for a fight or series of and usually not an evergreen pick.  But like...probably towards the top of the trio?  On Priest/Geo...yeah Priest over Geo still looks ok to me.  Want speed/want usable revival with the primary without bad stats probably beats the Geo callings of want shields/want 4 move/want an above average physical attack.  I might be underselling how good Geo is as a carrier for Draw Out in particular, though (where the 4 move and shields make it arguably an Evergreen option for that one skillset).  Might be worth thinking about this some more...for now:

6. Summoner

7. Priest

8. Geomancer

Alright...

9. Monk on the one hand, unlike the last three which have brief windows of shining as a carrier class, this is an evergreen carrier class...but only for exactly one skillset (Punch Art), with I guess some arguments that you can carry Jump as a Monk with Equip Spear...maybe?  Just...yeah, definitely lower than Geo for sure.

OK, Knight and Archer probably should be thought about.  Much like the Geo/Priest/Summoner trio they're situational, something you pull out for a fight or two, except just...worse and useful as a carrier on worse builds.  Knight is solid in Chapter 1, a fine carrier for Agrias before you get Geo or after you get Knight Swords since it has better stats than her base class, and on rare occasions a go-to for generic characters if the Excalibur is not in use.  Archer is nice in some specific story fights where you know you can take the high ground and have ridiculous range with longbows.  Mmm...yeah the Knight stuff feels like it matters more.

10. Knight

11. Lancer At the point when I put Lancer 13th I was basically grasping at straws.  But thinking on it some more Lancers have Spears, so if you haven't learned Equip Spear yet, you use them as a carrier for Jump!  Lancer/Dancer combos sometimes go for the high HP cause dance doesn't need speed.  Lancer/Chemist might ride out Lancer until Thief Hats really forced their hand.  And of course Lancer does just have stellar equipment in Chapter 2.  Much like Monk, Lancer is a carrier for its own skillset, except unlike Monk this is a temporary thing that ends half way through Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 really kicks you out of the class hard.  Hmm...still, 13th is probably wrong.  The more I think about it, it's got at least one maybe one and a half chapters like Monk where it's the best carrier for its own skillset.  Probably bumps it up above Archer and Mediator.

12. Mediator is there for using black robes with Elemental guns, and also for using innate Monster Talk.  Mmm...honestly, there probably is an argument that Mediator should be ahead of Archer, actually.  Switching for Longbows in specific fights is an option...but it's an option you take if you want Archer JP anyway and you're just timing when you'll get the most relevance out of the class.  But Monster Talk tends to force you into Mediator whether you want more Mediator JP or not.

13. Archer

14. Dancer You can probably think of lots of dual-class setups that would use Dancer as one of the two classes.  But how many can you think of that would actually choose to use Dancer as the carrier instead of the secondary?  There's...Agrias with Equip Sword.  If you want Dance/Agrias, you probably wind up in Dancer.  There's Dance/Jump, where long-term you probably opt for the clothes job just to get Thief Hat and Power Sleeve.  Actually, you know what?  That's enough to bump this up over Thief.  Definitely not enough to bump it up over Archer or Mediator--I've seen both Archer and Mediator carrier come up in real games, I haven't seen carrier Dancer.  But I'm starting to believe it's not that outlandish.

15. Thief If you don't have Ninja unlocked, this has 4 move, 4 jump and speed.  Also maybe you want to steal the Genji Equipment, and your secondary is something weird.  Also, maybe you want to steal heart a key target in a story battle where you already know the gender.  IDK, these are all stretches but it still sounds more impactful than Mime.

16. Mime Finally, a list where Mime is not last!  Yeah, I mean, the stats are pathetic, but I can think of actual reasons to bring it when all skills are learned, I mean...it's still a sketchy inclusion, but it does do something different.

17. Samurai  The best I can come up for Samurai if you already have the skills you want is various weird dual class setups.  Chemist+Samurai if you really want Phoenix Down (but that's iffy you should use Draw Out Priest instead, it's better).  Dancer+Samurai if you really want both and really want high MA (this is a really hard sell, cause Dancer's MA mult is higher than Samurai's, but they can't equip robes, so I guess if you want Wizard Robe then maybe?)  Lancer+Samurai--Samurai has higher PA and MA using both skillsets better (if we ignore the low HP and lack of shield).  As a short term training setup, Samurai with Jump is legit--Samurais jump real nice.  But as a non-training setup?  No, doesn't make sense to me.  It's...close to me putting them above Mime, but none of these actually sound...good?

18. Squire Maybe you don't have Thief or Geo unlocked and want 4 move.  Or maybe you don't have Geo unlocked, don't have Equip Sword learned and you don't have enough damage against Velius so you want some Twist Headband Power Sleeve Squires.  Like...for some reason you sent all five of your characters to Archer for the entire game, but you're a newbie enough player to struggle with the Archer SCC on Velius, and now you're looking at Platina Sword and thinking it can dig you out of the hole you dug yourself into.  Yeah............  It's way more of a stretch than the Samurai stuff, but I can see a weird scenario where I would advise a real human being to switch to Squire for one fight.  Does...this mean Squire should be above Samurai?

19. Bard Charge+20 with Bloody Strings and a Mime??  (I mean, technically you can, but surely that's not actually a serious build).  There's maybe some dual-class arguments here.  Bard/Samurai, Bard MA is notably higher.  I guess do this on Ramza, the obvious candidate for all Bard builds for even more MA.  Bard not being able to equip robes and having garbage HP so they don't really want to melee kinda ruins it though.  But...at the end of the day, going for a dual-class arguments mean that you care about both skillsets, and are accepting slightly worse stats in exchange for a better skillset.  Is Sing that good to make this a real choice over, say, Wizard or Time Mage with Draw Out?  I'm thinking no.

20. Calculator There are no dual-class combos with Calculator where, once training is done, you would ever pick Calculator over the other class.  There just aren't.  Even classes with much less MA that can't equip robes for Chameleon Robes such as Thief...just do status Calc instead.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 25, 2021, 07:26:31 AM
Reviewing one of the other lists I came up with on the fly and probably should doublecheck, skillset rankings...this one should be straightforward, probably not much movement.

1. Calc yep

2. Summoner yep

3. Time Mage yep

4. Samurai yep

5. Chemist In some circles this would probably be considered a slightly spicy pick (not so much in the DL) since this is loosely a "it's chapter 4 and you've already learned your skillset, which skillset is best" list.  But...even with the assumption of lategame people know their skillsets etc it's...probably just correct.  Can't think of that many endgame parties of good players that didn't have like...1-2 people with item.

6. Oracle yep, life drain is good.  But it's a little niche where you'd pull it out for specific fights, whereas Item you might just keep every fight.

7. Priest Seeing Priest this high kinda bugs me, but...what would it go below?  Not Monk, White Magic is kinda just better than Punch Art overall--both jack of all trades skillsets, but white is better.  Argument for Lancer I guess.  Black Magic?  Since this is kind-of a learned skillset in chapter 4 list feels sketchy; white by chapter 4 is certainly ahead of black.  I think Jump has the best argument; less damage than Holy, but can sustained attack without running out of MP, in exchange for losing all utility.  Ehh...less burst damage for short fights, and no raise for long fights...no I think White above Jump is sounding just fine.

8. Lancer cleanly ahead of Monk/Wizard etc.

9. Monk above dancer is...probably fine.  Punch Art works fine in asssassination missions, dance doesn't.  Dance is better in some fights, but Punch Art is more consistently solid

10. Dancer Does this belong above the "you get these for free on carriers like Wizard/Geo/Ninja" and I think the answer is yes?

So...elemental/black magic/throw is a bit of a mess; by chapter 4 you don't set any of them as secondaries, but they are...fine cause of the classes they're on.  Throw if you don't sink serious cash into it (throwing Yagu Darkness) deals like...100 damage; can be boosted to never miss with Concentrate, but has no supports that boost its attack.  If you want to throw cash around like...160 damage (160 by the way is also the damage if you hit weakness with an elemental ball).  Also Throw is used on a very fast unit so you'll get more attacks off.  Bolt 2 deals like 113.  Can be boosted to like 150 with MAU which a lot of wizard setups will be using, but will always have miss chances.  Elemental will be like...60-70, boosted by MAU if you're using that.  Black Magic also gets Flare, which is like 300 damage, and for some skillsets that don't care about MP (Draw Out, Mathskill) you can throw your MP away on it guilt free (also you'll have MAU with those builds so like 400 damage).  But black has the downside of having both charge times and miss chances, so if something needs to die it's never reliable.  Throw also gets 1.5x damage on charging targets.  Black Magic can technically be used for healing on elemental shields...although so can Throw!  I think this is Throw > Black Magic > Elemental.

11. Ninja

12. Wizard

13. Geomancer

14. Archer Charge is simultaneously bad...but also not bad because charge guns and sometimes charge ninjas in assassination missions.

15. Mediator Had this at 16th.  But...nah, people actually do sometimes invite things, like invite chemists with elemental guns, invite stuff for poaching.  Sometimes also modify brave/faith.  Less than Charge in the games I've observed, but still, people do.

16. Knight Eh,  you know, let me move this up too.  Speed breaking bosses or weapon breaking key targets isn't that much of a meme if you do it with guns and dual-weilders.  Pretty niche, only good in a few fights, haven't seen it in a lot of games I've observed myself, but I do read about it from time to time, and I can't deny that it's effective for a few fights.

17. Bard I...guess I had this at 15th cause of Angel Song, comboed with a full party that either uses MP or sets MP Switch?  Hypothetically quite strong, on paper.  Don't see a lot of people using it in practice.  Might have also been at 15th cause in an abstract fight Sing is probably better than Battle Skill or Talk Skill, but Battle Skill and Talk Skill actually have niche fights where they are...either good or the best in the game at their role.  Sing is...never better than meh outside of some weird MP Switch teams.

18. Thief Here for Steal Heart, basically.

19. Squire Yeah, Accumulate is bad.  You know, I did most of a Squire SCC; got part way into Chapter 4, with levels pretty low (like...below 18 on most of my party right before Sluice).  Barely used Accumulate, often just worse than moving and waiting.  Throw Stone for the chip damage was also usually worse than waiting unless you could knock someone off a cliff.

infinity. Mime Most categories are bad for Mime.  This one is even worse.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 26, 2021, 01:40:38 AM
SCC difficulty rankings I'm very unsure about, partially cause while I have done some SCCs they were in different formats.  Mediator and Summoner I did gamesharked to level 1.  The summoner run felt harder than the Mediator run but the Mediators I did some extra grinding with (got elemental guns) and Summoners lose a lot more from being level 1 (65 less MP and 2 less speed than being level 31).

I had quite a bit of trouble with Samurai, probably more than Mediator gamesharked to level 1 now that I think about it, but it was also the first SCC I ever did, so maybe I was just bad?  Still...maybe Samurai should be below Mediator?

Is Geomancer an easier SCC than Summoner?  I've done both, but Summoner had a big extra handicap; not sure.

Pretty confident about Time Mage > Oracle/Monk > Geomancer/Summoner > Mediator/Samurai/Calculator (with spells) > Squire.  Those are ones where I've actually had my hand on the controller for at least a chunk of fights.  Exact ordering within clumps I'm less sure about.

All the classes not on that list are basically guesswork and me trying to remember other people's posts from 2001.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 26, 2021, 03:04:44 AM
Soft ban list probably needs a little bit of revisiting.

So...when we were down to the 8th ban, it went to squire, and then the 9th ban came down to Priest vs Lancer vs Samurai and Samurai was ruled out very quickly due to a loack of Gained JP Up.  Well, now there's the option of Samurai with Gained JP up.  Does this change anything?

Mmm...Samurai still does have problems where one Samurai (Ramza) is pretty reasonable, but multiples are sketchy cause you have to send females down the physical job tree and get job level 4 in Monk, so there's no major threat of like...4 people in your party going Samurai.  Priest still has the thing where Black Magic is not bannable, and Priest is one of the only un-banned classes that can gain relevant JP while making use of Black Magic.

So 8. Priest is probably still correct.

It's at 9 where we need to take a close look at Lancer vs Samurai.  Lancer is better in Chapter 2, and Chapter 3.  Samurai becomes a god in Chapter 4.  Hm...no, that's probably still fine.

Next up...

Squire's positioning...it's not moving any higher; Archer just does too much; arrow guard, concentrate, way too much.

Is it moving lower?  I mean, do you ban Squire for Move+1, or Thief for Move+2, when the best strategy probably involves a bunch of soft-banned classes anyway?  Getting Move+1 is very free with guest fights, but Move+2 is ultimately better but involves grinding a weaker class instead of getting free spillover.

Orrr...comedy third option, do Squire and Thief drag each other down?  And I think they...might?  With both of them in play, banning either one is less impactful.  Dancer might move above them.

Might be

15. Dancer
16/17. Squire/Thief
18. Knight/Mediator

Knight offering Weapon Guard to Geomancer setups, Equip Shield to gun chemist setups.  But...movement probably helps more than evasion because it helps with hard fights (zodiacs etc).

Which order should Squire/Thief go in?  Mmm...probably Thief first.  Like...sure, normally Move+1 gets more use than Move+2, but so much has been banned that there's basically nothing better to grind out than Move+2.  Besides, Secret Hunt and Steal Heart count for something.  There is nothing else of value in Squire.

Ok, so

14. Dancer
15. Thief
16. Squire

When I allowed invitation to be bannable, I moved Mediator up a couple spots...maybe you invite a Tiamat or maybe you invite for elemental guns.  But...thinking on it, no I was wrong to move that above Knight with Weapon Guard and Equip Shield.  Even Equip Armor on a gun user maybe.

17. Knight
18. Mediator
19. Bard

Bard's a huge investment for a nice bump.  But...so is Mediator invite shenanigans for tiamats and elemental guns, and like...less of a time investment TBH, and doesn't kill your PA.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on February 28, 2021, 04:45:51 AM
  So I felt like writing words about FFT and a special character ranking showed up as an idea.  At first I wanted to do an overall ranking (and may still do so) but a more focused topic is simpler and may help organize thoughts.  So up first, special character skillsets.  I will be including Worker 8 and Byblos but not the Holy Dragon who gets replaced in the course of recruiting all the specials.  The originating character's gender will be considered in the ranking, seeing as one needs a Gameshark or other form of editor to have a male Divine Knight on the team or something like that.

US PSX version because that's what I'm familiar with.

1. All Swordskill
2. Holy Sword
(large gap)
3. Work
4. Byblos
5. Magic Sword
6. Guts
7. Limit
8. Snipe
9. Mighty Sword
10. Dragon
11. Truth
(another large gap)
12. Un-truth

And some scattered bits of the thought process.

Do I really need to explain All Swordskill?  A PA based skillset that combine three types of swordskills into one command which ignores all forms of evasion and used by a male character.  Night Sword to recover any injuries sustained.  Equipment breaking when that sort of thing makes enough difference.  Holy Sword for general damage dealing and the occasional lucky status proc.  Dark Sword drains away the MP of an enemy mage if for some reason you aren't murdering it. (such as training in Thief with Equip Sword on the way to Move+2)  The requirement of a sword or knight sword barely slows down the sheer destructiveness of the skillset.

Holy Sword even by itself is still very destructive with several options for hurting multiple targets.  Female PA means its not as powerful in Agrias' hands but PA boosting gear from Chapter 3 onwards address that matter.  It's still useful before then for perfect accuracy, infinite vertical range on Statis Sword/Lightning Stab, and sometimes helpful status proc.

May seem strange seeing Work placed so high but other skillsets are more niche and/or have aggravating limitations.  Work is simple.  Aim at target in range, target gets hurt.  Pierces defense and evasion.  Even the self-damage is more like something to keep the skillset in check rather than a hinderance.

The Byblos skillset is quite potent in the vaccuum of this ranking.  Parasite wrecks generics and will usually land something decisive within 2 attempts.  For Zodiacs, Difference will put a hurting on them.  For other humanoid bosses, OK Byblos struggles to contribute.  Using Shock as a primary damage source entails leaving the user in an injured state so it's riskier getting mileage out of it.  This limitation along with the weakness of low MP human bosses is what leads me to place it behind Work.  The sheer number of hoops to jump through to recruit Byblos is something I will touch upon in the overall rankings.

Magic Sword has some cool skills but there's also a number of limitations.  They require MP, can only hit one target at a time, are Faith based so will whiff often on low Faith enemies, and (other than Shock) are subject to magic evade.  Beowulf really doesn't like all the Feather Mantle humans in the end stretch and the Deep Dungeon.  Weakness aside, Drain really takes down Zodiacs, Chicken turns enemies into poultry very quickly or just neutralizes reaction abilities on bosses, Break has a good chance of creating a statue, and Shock has 8 range so good luck trying to hide from it.  His other skills are more situational and take more thought to use and they are more accurate than their Oracle counterparts.  Despite being the only skillset here with MP costs, still feels right.

Guts I feel is very situational but there are some unique things it does very well.  Yell is one of very few ways to increase Speed in battle.  Using it once will make up for a Summoner's speed deficit.  It can bring a Calculator up to speed with the rest of the party to aid in its training.  It's handy for theft too.  Feels overrated in most randoms though and I feel it throws my party order out of sync in short battles.  Cheer Up is the best skill for raising Brave but doesn't really offer much in the way of helping win fights; it's a long term investment I find I only use after a battle is under control.  Scream is neat being one of the few ways to boost MA in battle but again, not really decisive in getting out of a jam.  Ultima at least does unevadable MT damage.  Not a whole lot of it but it's something the rest of the skillset lacks.  Many fights, I find I don't really miss the absence of Ramza's Guts command and I use a generic setup with him.  And despite this, the lower ranked skills feel worse.

Limit has some neat abilities.  Finish Touch is devastating to generics.  Cross Slash has decent damage and a short charge time.  Climhazzard takes planning and teamwork to use but anything under 50% max HP when it fires is going to die.  I decided the charge times, the fact Limit only targets panels, and the Materia Blade requirement drags down the command's ranking.  Also needing Short Charge to get reliable use out of the powerhouse Limits ties up the support slot.  A significant factor of the Materia Blade requirement means no Rune Blade and its +2 MA and no auto-haste since Excalibur is off the table even when no one else in the battle is using it.  The nature of the CT system means there will be moments where CTs line up such that Limit cannot hit anything.  Ninjas especially will terrorize a Limit user and a Materia Blade physical is laughable relative to the other options out there.  Male MA growth barely registers in the face of the other drawbacks of the command.

Snipe underwhelmed me once I really took a look at it.  Works best with a long range weapon or dual-wielding and even then it's usually not great.  Don't Act and Don't Move status will last about a turn and a half when Mustadio first joins.  Even if Mustadio is using Snipe every turn, it will barely keep more than one enemy disabled after factoring in the skill's accuracy.  And when enemy Speeds are getting higher and it starts to look a little better (takes an 8 Speed enemy out for two turns consistently), Thief Hat humans completely shut down the skillset.

  Now the good news.  Seal Evil is a supreme tool for dealing with undead humans in the few story fights they appear in.  Also handy for dealing with undead monsters in a way that doesn't risk having them come back to life.  Snipe also pierces evasion.  Arm Aim has its unique niche of being the only PC skill that inflicts Don't Act status that bypasses evasion.  So it is nice to have for opening up pesky mantle wearing Knights should the attack team be lacking evade piercing damage.

  Meliadoul joining the party later than Orlandu yet having her skillset overshadowed by his is frequently cited.  But in a hypothetical situation where she's not stuck in Orlandu's shadow (or a non-hypothetical one where he's sitting out to keep from inflating the enemy levels more), how does her skillset fare?  Not very well, I determined.  Even if she's borrowing the Excalibur though it does help some with killing a target before they run out of things to break.

  I pondered a bit before placing Mighty Sword this low.  When it does work, it works very well, breaking the targeted equipment 100% of the time, no dealing with accuracy issues or evasion.  But the skillset is an all or nothing proposition.  Against monsters, Zodiacs, or humans with no more relevant equipment to break, what does Meliadoul have to followup with? Since about 80% of random battle opponents are monsters, 80% of the time, the Mighty Sword command is deadweight worse than a skillset with no abilities learned.  The limitation also makes Mighty Sword a lot less attractive to set as a secondary for a random battle.  If it turns out the opposition is entirely monsters, it becomes a wasted slot.  Snipe, underwhelming as it is, at least has a chance of working on more stuff.  Which is why I end up rating it above Mighty Sword as some chance of working felt more valuable than no chance.

  Now if one has the PSP version as their primary version, that bumps up the ranking.  Working on everything other than those with the requisite support ability and having damage potential better than the PA * WP of a regular attack, it becomes a lot more attractive to set as a secondary along with Equip Sword.  Not a factor here but an interesting footnote.

  There is one time where I really want to bust out the Dragon skillset and that is taming Balk 2's dragon pets, especially the Tiamat.  The rest of the time?  Range 2 vertical 2 breath avoids Counter at least and can put a hurting on monsters with a relevant elemental weakness.  Tends to outdamage Faith based magic most of the time except for the strongest Summons, Holy, and Flare.  Subject to magic evade so less adept at dealing with humans.  Then there's the issue that half the skillset is useless without a dragon ally and no dragons on the enemy side to turn on them.  Holy Bracelet has better range but good luck hitting a specific target with it as it's rando-magic like Truth/Un-truth but a Summon sized effect area.  Dragon breath may have more usable situations than Mighty Sword but the few times Mighty Sword can work, it tends to have a bigger impact on the battle.  So Dragon gets ranked below.

  I'd given some consideration to ranking Truth higher.  Unlimited vertical range, ignores evasion, damage scales to MA only with only Zodiac compatibility and elemental resistance to weaken it. (and no enemy unit will resist all five of its possible elements)  But it strikes randomly within the target range.  In a game where knowing how much damage you're doing is valuable for planning out actions, this is just so much of a disadvantage to work with.  And on top of that, one has to wait for it to charge before seeing what it did (or didn't) do.
  It's not quite as atrocious as various voices online may like to claim.  For one, keeping it from hitting allies is as simple as not moving anyone into the target range.  Which you do get to see when selecting it.  Even one enemy on a 5 panel range will see a hit a bit over 50% of the time on average.  The quadratic damage formula also means its damage will climb faster as MA increases.  10 MA isn't too hard to reach in a magical job where even the lowly Heaven Thunder will do a respectable 90 per hit on neutral compatibility without elemental boosting.
  Still getting to devastating levels of MA takes quite a bit of stacking along with high levels.  And while learning how to lower the area of effect is a valuable trait in getting better mileage out of Truth, it's highly map dependent.  Some maps are better than others for getting small effect areas.  Dogoula Pass is pretty great with height differences and impassable panels where targeting them yields several spots which lower the effect area to 2.  A place like Sweegy Woods is terrible for Truth usage.  Flat terrain and next to no obstacles to narrow effect areas.  And when you do finally get a juicy setup of 3 enemies in 4 panels or 2 in 3, Rafa will fire one burst and decide to stop.  In those rare instances where Truth does something decisive (such as landing multiple strikes to take out a key enemy), it's very likely one could have achieved the same result with a more dependable setup.

Un-Truth, Oh joy.  Take every drawback of Truth: the lack of dependability, charge times that make you wait before you see the results, high vertical tolerance making it difficult to lower the effect area and add these issues in.

- The reverse Faith formula: Average enemy Faith is 60 and bosses tend to all have more than that.  So compared to a similar strength Faith based ability, Un-Truth is already doing a third less damage on average.
- Male MA: Male units are already at a disadvantage with wielding magical skillsets as it is but then add in a quadratic damage formula on top of that.  Malak's losing even more power relative to a hypothetical female Un-Truth caster.  Getting meaningful amounts of MA generally involves being in a caster class which leads to the next issue.
- Un-truth has no synergy with caster classes: Having a good Un-truth user (assuming such a thing is even possible) requires having them at low Faith.  Malak is going to be awful with all the caster skillsets.  And sacrificing an entire skillset just to boost the functionality of Un-truth?  Well, you can if you really want but sacrificing Black/White/Time/Yin-Yang/Summon to help friggin' Un-truth is something done for training, not when consciously seeking to build an effective unit.

  Faith Rod does exist but that's Deep Dungeon only so even if I am choosing to ignore Deep Dungeon for this analysis, it still has that availability factor.  And even with it?  Wizard Malak is probably better off with Black Magic than messing around with Un-Truth.  Summons already ignore magic evade so there's little incentive to use Un-Truth over a Summon.  And Summons don't have friendly fire for added mockery.  Oracles I feel are generally better off with sticks.  It would take a very intentional decision and setup to give up their respectable physical for any sort of rod.

  Un-truth can do amazing damage when both the target and the caster have Faith status.  But that's a lot of hoops to jump through to get big damage.  If it decides to hit, going back to the dependability issue.  So this trivia doesn't help its ranking here.  Not when there's Holy Sword skills where one just points them at something you want to die without a bunch of hassle setting up both sides of the battlefield.  Know what else is amazing with both target and caster have Faith status?  Summons and Math Skill and status magic, all superior than hoping a blast of rando-magic hits an enemy
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 01, 2021, 11:59:31 PM
On DragonKnight Zero's special character skillset ranking...

I think Mighty Sword is probably too low?

I think it's ahead of Snipe at least.  Saying that Meliadoul doesn't do anything to non-humans is...yeah, fair.  But by the same point in the game Snipe tends to not do anything to most humans (since they wear Thief Hats and are not undead).

There's an argument that Snipe is available for longer so it's not fair to look at them only for the last stretch of Chapter 4, which...yeah, that's fair.  But even when Snipe can hit humans does it really justify the character slot?  It's a bit like 8 range Steal Heart.  Roughly the same hit rate.  Worse status, longer range, but requires you to be wielding a gun for that range.  That's...not really something I'm excited to spend a character slot on.  Maybe as a situational pick.

Whereas ranged instant speed evade ignoring 230ish damage (but only against humans) from a character potentially with auto-haste for 12 effective speed?  Most parties would be fine with including that, at least if they thought they were somewhat likely to face humans.

Which I guess would only move Mighty Sword up one space.  (Don't think it's touching Limit/Guts/Magic Sword).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on March 02, 2021, 02:04:34 PM
Just to doublecheck, when is the earliest you can get a Materia Blade? And are these rankings factoring in the availability of that, or does it assume one is hacked in along with the Soldier class itself?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 02, 2021, 03:04:09 PM
I was under the impression that skillsets were being considered within their non-hacked availability. (Which I approve of. No need to hype things like "Cross-Slash does 22xMA damage, that's 3-digit damage in Chapter 1!" Or for a more extreme example, see things like the Advanced jobs in FF5, which have fixed-damage attacks balanced for endgame.)

That said to answer your question, the earliest you can get the Materia Blade naturally is the start of Chapter 4.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: hinode on March 02, 2021, 05:59:40 PM
Byblos at 4 makes me think this is disregarding availability.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 02, 2021, 08:04:54 PM
Byblos at 4 makes me think this is disregarding availability.
It's merely not throwing out characters for reasons of "they join too late" (sounds like there will be another list coming that does that).

But even when doing that, it still makes sense to evaluate nearly all these skillsets against Chapter 4 enemies.   (Almost all of these are only available in Chapter 4.  Only Agrias and Mustadio are available earlier.  Sure, technically you have Ramza earlier too, but he doesn't have Scream or Ultima until Chapter 4 so...you don't really have the full Guts skillset).  There's certainly never a reason to evaluate these skillsets against Chapter 1 enemies.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 02, 2021, 08:23:27 PM
Meanwile version 2 of the flowchart with the changes I mentioned.  (Still haven't touched the SCC difficulty rankings though--send help anyone who still remembers stuff about SCC difficulty).

(https://i.imgur.com/g2BFcbx.png)

The one movement that didn't come up in my analysis above is, on the carrier list, Squire moved up several slots.  I saw someone in a different class tier list mention that Squire is good for Gariland Magic City and Mandalia Plains story fights.  And...they're not wrong.  Sure, those fights are a tiny part of the game, but...that is honestly enough to move Squire as a carrier above Samurai...and Mime...and...honestly probably Thief and Dancer too.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on March 03, 2021, 12:33:01 AM
I kept my first ranking as a "have all the characters and important skills learned, how do their skillsets stack against each other."  For simplicity, I didn't factor in availability, difficulty of recruiting, how much effort it takes to train them in the important skills (Cloud get hits hard when I do overall rankings and do factor this), how well they preform in other classes and/or before they've learned they're desirable skills, and so on.

And since Materia Blade is available from the start of Chapter 4 and there's no randomness to its acquisition, I'm assuming one already has it by the time Cloud joins.  FAQ bait arguments don't apply as several of the specials are even more FAQ-baity than the blade.

After a few days, I'll write up a special character classes ranking.  As a preview at a glance, it looks like Orlandu and Ramza at the top, Byblos at or near the bottom, shield users above the rest, and the remaining shuffle around at the bottom tier.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 03, 2021, 11:37:17 AM
So...it was bothering me that my memory of Samurai SCCs might be a bit tainted, so I went ahead and started a new one.  Specifically of interest is how much the SCC is doable without grinding.  I decided that grinding extended to grinding up Delita to have a fancy setup for him, so I didn't do that either (Knight with Move+1, Potion, and Weapon Guard).

In particular, I've done a lot of SCCs with somewhat of a "no grind unless absolutely necessary" restriction on them.  But like...if I struggle in the SCC because I spent JP on the wrong thing, that's not the fault of the class.  Like...Time Mage under a "no grind" limitation if you buy something silly like Demi 2, and then lose fights due to not having Meteor, that's not really the fault of the class.  And I feel like I might have done this with my first playthrough of Samurai.

In order to avoid the JP spending mistakes I made last time, my plan for this playthrough is: go for Blade Grasp first in preparation for Barius Hill (which was the first major wall for me last time).  Then get Koutetsu.  Then go right back to saving for Two Hands to hopefully beat Velius without needing to gain levels to hit the level 18 speed point (Velius being the second major wall for me).

Samurai unlocked with characters at level 6-7.  Buldozed the first few fights due to being overleveled (overleveled male samurai deal 28 or 35 depending on brave.  Female Samurai are 15, which...a lot of SCCs deal 15 in Chapter 1).  No resets on Sweegy Woods, Dorter, Sand Rat Cellar, one reset on Miluda 1.

After those fights I was thinking Chapter 1 would be mostly straightforward apart from Wiegraf.  Then 4 resets on Miluda 2, 8 resets on Wiegraf, 5 resets on Algus.  There's some AI manipulation to make these fights better, draw the boss into the right spot while drawing the other enemies away so that they don't meatshield for the boss.  But I figured those luring positions out through trial and error, Delita often made a mess of any luring attempts anyway, and RNG was a big player (whether the boss's reaction would trigger, whether I would miss, whether Wiegraf's instant death or stop would kick in).  Although to be fair, trouble on Miluda 2 was probably partially my fault--forgot to finish Delita's setup for this fight, and decided I would skip over an armour checkpoint cause I expected trouble from Wiegraf, and was like "I can wait for the next store checkpoint after Miluda 2 right?"  Oops.

Anyway, melee characters who can miss, have low damage, and have low movement I guess struggle a little on the last three fights in Chapter 1.  Not earth shattering, I was more interested in Chapter 2 and 3 stuff to be honest

Still a few fights away from Barius Hill, but my best guess right now is some but not all characters will have blade grasp.  And..."some" might mean "only Ramza".  Although...maybe the fight won't wall me even without blade grasp as I have a lot more experience with SCCs now?  Although...pretty sure my chapter 1 reset counts were actually higher this time, so maybe I am old and rusty and will get walled even more.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 04, 2021, 01:46:03 AM
Chapter 2...

Dorter 2: 0 resets, Araguay: 0 resets, Zirekile: 0 resets, Zaland Fort City: 1 reset

So...moment of truth, how many characters do I have enough JP for Blade Grasp on?  And the answer is...zero!  (Ramza has 699 JP, the rest are around 500).

Alright, question 2, was I just bad when I did my first SCC, or can I  clear this fight in a reasonable number of resets without Blade Grasp?  At first I was getting rolled, and thought maybe yeah, this fight was actually just going to take me 40ish resets like when I was a noob.  Switched around my strategies a bit and...ended up with...somewhere around 6-8 resets in the end.  Strategy changes:

* After trying to do things with Agrias on Holy Knight with Hi Potion or Cure 2+Raise secondary, I decided no, I want the one extra point of PA on her, made her a Knight with Holy Sword secondary.
* I decided Mustadio surviving was pretty important to my plan; huge part of my party's damage.  And he has the lowest HP on the team and moves before the Archers, Archers were always targetting him.  Blinged him out with the best mantle money can buy right now...the Leather Mantle.  (If you reset enough eventually the Leather Mantle plus his front evade will keep him alive against archer shots!)
* One of my low faith females I sent to bait a summon from the right hand summoner turn 1.  This pulls the summoner down the right hand lane, which actually means she has to backtrack to actually climb the mountain and get in the fight.  Also sometimes she only has one summon.
* My low faith male I set up one square to the right of the square that gets hit by a Knight turn 1.  Can sometimes hit a charging archer from there, and running into the range of summoners when he's alone is fine.  Also, really need to bait some attacks from Knights onto not Agrias cause she can very easily die if there's no other target.
* In order to time Ramza to be able to hit the summoner on the left when she's charging on her turn 2, I needed to double wait round one, and then move wait round 2.

These changes really flipped the fight around--even before I cleared it, I had a few runs that looked kinda promising.

Still a super legit fight.  Bought full armour and helmet upgrades for everyone in anticipation (including a body upgrade and mantle for mustadio).  So...maybe I'll run into money trouble now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 04, 2021, 05:25:46 AM
Welp, had that whole nice speech about not being a noob anymore, and then made a noob mistake (have Capricorn Ramza, can't find a way to survive till opening the gate, Gaf deals 63, Ramza with best available HP gear has 185 HP, needs 190 to survive three hits).

Rest of Chapter 2 up through Lionel was stomped by Koutetsu + Wizard Robe.

Obviously grinding for levels would get me the HP, but I want to test low grind Samurais vs Velius, so I might just cheat past Lionel instead, since it's definitely beatable low grind if you just pick a smarter zodiac.  (Cheating would be in the form of like Knight Ramza taking no actions just opening the gate to simulate being a samurai with more HP from levels).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on March 04, 2021, 07:09:04 AM
Oof.  Well good luck and hope you don't get walled at Balk 2 like I did without the Lv 35 Speed point. 

Which might still have been doable with the trap strategy but I didn't pick up 2 H Bags to try it.  But I abandoned the SCC and have long since overwritten the save.  The money issues were real from about mid-Chapter 3 and onwards.

My Ramza was a Sagitaraus, for comparison.  I wanted bad compat with Virgo (Lionel being one of the key reasons), Pisces would drag out the Wiegraf duel too much and I decided that reduced damage from Gemini was worth more than weakening enemy Sagitaraus.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2021, 08:56:32 AM
Balk 2 huh?  That one wasn't on my radar; I know I did this SCC before, and I remember a lot of sticking points due to low levels, but not Balk.

Anyway...taking my cheating strat to give Ramza a bit more HP while taking no actions...

Lionel I...reset 3 times, and then came back with Rubber Shoes and stomped.  Would have been nice to save the money spent on rubber shoes (still didn't have enough JP for Blade Grasp on anyone except for Ramza).

Queklain: 0 resets

Goland Coal City: 1 reset.  3 people with Blade Grasp now, but that means two people who can be murdered by chemists, and also I have two male samurai which can be steal hearted (very bad) and there's three Thieves.  Actually fairly scary fight.

Zalmo 1: 0 resets.

UBS2: 0 resets
UBS3: 0 resets
UBS1: 0 resets

Grog Hill: 0 resets.  If the thief had actually tried to use steal heart, and had hit this was loseable.  They went for an auto against someone with blade grasp instead.

Anyway, Blade Grasp on 4 people, Two Hands on the non-Ramza male, who now actually deals slightly more to a single target (100) than the females with Koutetsu (84).  There's a PA point coming up, but I believe it doesn't actually change my male's damage (PA goes from 7 to 8, which both get reduced to 5 with 73 brave).  Most other people are about 200-300 JP away from Two Hands, so skipping everything else in favour of Koutetsu, Blade Grasp, Two Hands looks like it might get all three skills in time for Velus?  Well...on four characters (the fifth got behind on JP somehow).  Levels are 13-15, so yeah, raming into Velius below level 18 looks extremely likely.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 07, 2021, 08:51:30 AM
Yardow: 4 resets.  Being melee kinda sucks.  First lost because I clumped up too many enemy bodies at the door and then couldn't walk through the door.  Then lost a few times cause I pulled too far back trying to bait enemies forward and then Rafa died.  This was probably harder than it needed to be because I was worried about cash for riovanes so didn't buy white robes.

Yuguo Woods: 1 reset.  Time Mage acted before me and hit Don't move on 3 Samurai.  Not unwinnable from that point, but not great.

Gate of Riovanes: 0 resets.

Wiegraf: With the loadout I have (Capricorn, Two Hands, Blade Grasp, Koutetsu) hit him with a two hands sword attack twice without dying to counter.  Works about 1/8 of the time.  Elf Mantle helps.  Bearable with frameskip to get past his speech.

Velius: So...4/5 of my characters have two hands, and I don't think it's enough.  I've successfully gotten it so that four (technically all five but the girl without two hands I believe is still better using Koutetsu) could manage to melee him once while he was charging.  And...he didn't die.

Male and good compat female deal 180.  Neutral compat female deals 144.  Ramza deals 216.  And then the remaining Koutetsu is maybe 84 or something.  Sticking these in a spreadsheet, says 804.  Even with one more Two Hands I would only get to 864.  Need 960ish.

So...I see three options that get me the win here:

1: Get a big crit.
2: Figure out how to get two attacks from one character on Velius without being murdered by demons after making the first attack.
3: Load up my save outside of Riovanes from before I went shopping.  Buy 1 chameleon robe, 3 sprint shoes, 1 bracer (which...I can just barely afford all that).  Put the Bracer on Ramza, and hope that doesn't fuck up CT coming out of the duel to the point that I can no longer hit Velius while charging.  Put the Sprint Shoes on the characters with two hands.  The character without two hands can use Red Shoes or something like that, she doesn't need to hit while charging.

I think I lean towards trying the 3rd option?  Don't really see a way for a character to live after getting in melee range of Velius.  And the odds of the crit route are around 5% (when the chances of winning the duel are around 12%, so I'd be committing to about 160 resets).  Kinda sucks cause Bracer is a huge money drain that will probably never be used again after this fight, but oh well.  Should probably do some testing first with a 6 CT character to make sure that doesn't completely change Velius' AI or something.

Bracer route Still only gets me to 936 though.  Hmm...if I only buy two Sprint Shoes, use the unsold Diamond Armlet I can get away with two 6 speed characters, a 6 speed character that double waits on turn 1 can hit Velius while charging turn 2, bringing 36 more damage.  Probably two speed 6 characters will change his AI, but I'll run some tests.  I guess if I can get away with only one speed 6 char but not two, a two hands character picking up PA+1 matters more than a non-two hands character picking up MA+1.

Side note: I regret buying circlets on everyone, kinda forgot how much Velius+demons are basically just unlimited damage so I'm not sure Circlets actually change the fight at all.  But I did that before Yuguo Woods and saved over the pre Yuguo Woods file already RIP.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 07, 2021, 03:04:56 PM
I was Level 18 by that fight and it wasn't that bad (did have a couple resets refining the strategy though). Didn't grind either. RNG luck with randoms? Probably. Unfortunately the file with my strategy notes got eaten; my memory is that 7 speed vs 6 mostly helps with Ramza and the timing of the Wiegraf duel. If you're winning on turn 2 then the battle ends on clocktick 38 (Wiegraf's third turn). 7 speed Ramza will be at 66 CT then, gets one turn 5 clockticks into Velius. He can double-wait and hit Velius mid-charge at that point, although Velius will likely be able to kill him with Titan so only other 7-speed characters can mid-charge him. If you do this with 6 speed... then Ramza gets his turn riiiight before Velius, which isn't very helpful unless your goal is to use Kiyomori and tank. Unless there's some way to avoid moving in the Wiegraf duel, but that seems unlikely since Wiegraf likes to Wave Fist from the edge of range. EDIT: 8 speed obviously gives you maximum flexibility here, since you enter the Velius fight at 100 CT and can do whatever you want, like Kiyomori + move to wherever. That probably helped so much, thinking on it, and was probably what I did.

Definitely agree with not buying White Robes for Yardow btw... I had some difficulties with the fight too but it's absolutely not worth it, White Robes don't stop Throw and only randomly help against the Summoners (you're basically banking on them only having Ifrit/Shiva/Ramuh). Some SCCs have money to burn on a low-% investment like that, Samurai absolutely does not, unless you're grinding.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 07, 2021, 05:34:43 PM
I am doing the thing I normally do in SCCs where I skip over randoms--means that choosing to go buy equipment isn't also choosing to gain a level or two if the shopping town is far away.  (Same thing I did first time I did a Samurai SCC, for what it's worth).

Ramza does not have JP for Kiyomori.  (After Two Hands, Koutetsu, Blade Grasp he's left with about 150 JP).  Don't really have money to buy spare Kiyomoris either, although I could unequip the Kiyomori from the one Samurai that doesn't have Two Hands learned.

Obviously 7 speed is a huge power spike yeah; pretty sure my first time trying to do no-grinding Samurai I just gave in and grinded for the 7 speed point.  (But I had also spent my JP poorly that time; don't think anyone had Two Hands).

6 speed Ramza seems to be workable on Velius.  I move wait jump into the water, which seems to get me my second turn around when Velius is charging his second spell.  If Ramza's taken any damage during the duel, Velius will lock a spell onto someone other than Ramza turn 1, and none of the demons can reach Ramza in the water spot before Ramza's second turn, and then on turn 2 Velius will once again run past Ramza to lock a spell onto a higher health target he can OHKO, which lets Ramza pop out of the water from behind.  Basically, I get one mid-charge two hands hit out of 6 speed Ramza, which is exactly what I get out of the rest of my party.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on March 07, 2021, 09:27:00 PM
FFT Special character class ranking: A loose ranking based on the premise of how much a special wants to be in its base class after finishing its training.  For variety and to keep the list from being too predictable, I will be putting most weight on how well the class uses its native skillset and its innate stats and equipment options.  How good the skillset is to begin with won't be given much weight in this analysis and stat growth of the class won't be factored in at all.  I will not be factoring in female exclusive equipment for the most part; Setiemson and Chantage are that good and would turn the listing into females > everyone else dullness.

Overall ranking will be put up after I'm done typing up my thought because I haven't decided how to order them to keep the reader in suspense.

1. Holy Swordsman: Well, this was predictable.  Ninja PA for high power, knight swords, and Thief Hat and its innate 110% Speed for speed.  HP wouldn't be that important but it gets that as well.  And shields: all the shield using classes are above the others  It's got OK MA and MP as well, not that one is likely to be using an MA based skillset as a Holy Swordsman. 

2. uber- Squire (C4 Ramza)  The only other class with access to hats and Excalibur at the same time, is it enough to put it above other classes when it's dependent on a strong secondary to channel all that speed into?  Actually, I think it does.  The multipliers aren't as strong as Orlandu's and with 110% PA and 102% MA, it doesn't appear on the surface to be amazing at either.  But Scream exists to boost either/both so that drawback can be made up (and its unique to Ramza in the context of this analysis).  Along with access to the full range of armor options and shields, Ramza has the tools to excel at whatever role you want him to fill.

3. Temple Knight: I was unsure whether to place this or Divine Knight in the #3 spot so let Magic Sword's overall usefulness serve as the tiebreaker.  Both have 105% Speed, 4 Move, knight swords, shields, and the inability to wear hats.  Temple Knight has good multiplers in its other important stats.  High MP of course, respectable MA so it can use magic secondaries decently with a Rune Blade, and a good HP multiplier in a class where HP actually matters (for Shock!).  The high PA isn't as important for Magic Sword but it still may see some use for finishing off weakened enemies or restoring his own MP with Chakra.  Beowulf is not going to be good at hitting things with knight swords as other users without intensive Brave altering.  In general, he's going to get more mileage out of a Rune Blade or Ice Brand + Black Robe.

4. Divine Knight (Meliadoul): Knight swords and Knight PA provide the important components of getting oomph out of the skillset.  She can use clothes so Power Sleeve is an option if you want to inflict even more pain.  The class' other weapon options become relevant with Equip Change set as spears and crossbows allow her to damage monsters outside of Counter range.  Doesn't handle magic secondaries as well with under 100% multipliers in both MA and MP.  Still, it's high enough for some impressive numbers when a Holy Lance poke procs a spell.

5. Holy Knight (Agrias): I wanted to place Holy Knight even lower than it ended up.  On paper, it may have been envisioned as someone who could wield both sword and magic.  In practice, its humble 100% to both PA and MA results in a class that does neither well.  It also has only 3 Move and an average 100% Speed and unable to use hats.  However, it still gets shields and knight swords for a skillset that cares for their high WP.  So while it's not great with its own skillset for most of the game.  Holy Knight becomes a competitive option at the endgame/postgame when there is a high WP knight sword to reach for.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 08, 2021, 04:30:27 AM
Velius beaten with the Bracer strat.

My estimates were off, Ramza actually deals 360 with a bracer to a charging Velius--there must be rounding in a different spot than I thought.  Still need literally everyone to connect.

Duel with wiegraf becomes more miserable due to replacing Elf Mantle with Bracer.  Ramza now kills Wiegraf, which...in theory is awesome cause he has 100 CT going into the Velius fight, so he can move-wait, guarantee that Velius walks up to him, and then hit him while he's charging and run away.  In practice it changes the AI just enough so that I have problems with where Velius decides to move on turn 2.

Ran into several problems.  First, if he is in range to physical them, he will (despite blade grasp).  Obviously that means he doesn't kill me, but I also don't hit him while he's charging (or live to get another turn).  Second, it took me a long time to realize it, but at some point he decided that he always wanted to hit the lower HP Samurai even though he could OHKO either one.  I eventually took her helmet off to try and force him to lock Cyclops onto the higher HP Samurai (which incidentally is the one with Two Hands).  He STILL decided to lock onto the lower HP Samurai.  Okay...so removed the helmet from the higher HP Samurai (the one with Two Hands).  Now he locks onto the right Samurai...and I immediately win.

I'm...not sure what quirk of the AI makes him go after the lower HP samurai (while also ignoring the damaged Ramza whom he could also kill).

Probably about 10-12 attempts on Velius ironing out all the new AI and movement?  (Plus a bunch more resets on Wiegraf of course; counting all the wiegraf resets probably 100ish?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 10, 2021, 12:52:22 AM
Roof: 0 resets

Doguola Pass: 1 reset (multiple blade grasp failures).

---

What I want to do in this post though is look back at the hard ban list, the one where gained JP Up and carriers get banned.  Reminder, this is what we have:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

Specifically I want to revisit this section:

13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief

Basically, my logic for the full tail end was bad (a lot of it based around chantage poaching), as shown by Dark Holy Elf's playthrough where with Geomancer/Thief/Archer/Dancer/Mediator legal he stomped the game hard enough that stopping to poach wasn't really merited.

But the only things I really moved based on the new evidence was Geomancers up, and Knights up as they helped in the chapter Dark Holy Elf said was hardest (Chapter 1).

But like...my whole original logic was bad, and I should have moved more than two classes.

I'm looking at this now, and thinking Archer should be above Mediator, Samurai should be lower, and I'm...not confident in Knight being so high.

Starting from 13....

13: Archer. So like, after banning Geomancer, which means Samurai have essentially no carrier classes, I believe I was thinking "probably still ban Samurai next right?  Only serious skillset left, even without a carrier class".  But playing through a Samurai SCC now...would I sail through the game doing this if I had 900 less JP due to not unlocking Samurai until the start of Chapter 3?  (Move+2 would help a lot, but still).  I think the way you would run a party with only these classes legal is mostly an Archer SCC, that can switch to other classes if it needs to wear a chameleon robe, that can set Equip Sword if it needs more damage for Velius, and where one or two characters go to Dancer to really trivialize mooks.  Maybe pick up speed break with bows to smash Altima.  Maybe send one character to Samurai for healing and Kiyomori.  This sure looks like Archer.  I'm thinking I will start an Archer SCC next to make sure I'm not crazy in thinking they are preferable to a mostly Samurai party, but...yeah, until presented with evidence otherwise.

14: So ok, now our damage has dropped quite a bit.  We can use guns with mediator.  We can get solid damage as a Thief with Equip Sword, which might very well be the build of choice against Velius.  We can maybe circumvent the need for damage on fights like Altima by coming with a bunch of people with guns and with Speed Break.  We can go Samurai and bring a lot of damage and range in Chapter 4 (Equip Sword for Rune Blades or Equip Shield for Agies Shield or switching to Knight means more MA than a Samurai SCC; like probably 160 damage with Kikuichimoji.  Another class that might be worth switching to for Samurai that want MA is Mediator--Mediators can also wear robes, have a similar MA mult to Knights, but can wear hats when speed is needed).  The Samurai path is going to basically be a drag on the team until mid-late Chapter 4, though.  Although if they stop to get something useful before they get Samurai, they don't need to be a drag (Dance or Equip Gun are the options I'm looking at; slows down any plans to learn Samurai skills which were already being learned slow due to a lack of Gained JP Up and unlock requirements, but still).  Two classes are jumping out here.  Knight, which is still the solid class in Chapter 1, and which keeps showing up, whether for equip sword or speed breaks or just its stats.  And Mediator.  Five people with guns do actually just beat Velius; while a party with some Equip Sword Thieves probably kills more efficiently, you would probably still bring gun users cause you can't get five people in melee range same turn.  And maybe, just maybe we might be reaching a point now where a little grinding is justified to beat the challenge without a high reset count.  And the moment you open the grinding door even a little bit, Mediators pop in and are like "sooo...wanna poach some chantages?  Wanna invite some people with elemental guns?  Wanna invite a Tiamat and use triple breath to deal 999 to Altima?"

Knight and Mediator both present good Velius strategies that don't require the other class (although Knight leans on Thief, both for thief equipment,  and for Move+2).  Knight plus Mediator presents good Altima strategies (speed breaking with guns).  Mediator also presents some good solo strategies for Altima if even a small amount of grinding is thrown in (elemental guns or inviting a Tiamat).  Balk 2 strategies...Knight can contribute Equip Shield for Flame Shield Rubber Shoes Thief Hat combos to shut down the damage of the fight.  Mediator can contribute Train.  Samurai with Kikuichimoji present the highest damage long range attack with which to hit Balk (other than elemental guns or invited Tiamats).  But Dancer might actually shut down the fight harder than any of them due to statusing all the monsters?

So I guess it comes down to...do I think Chapter 1 will still be the hardest chapter after Geomancer and Archer get the boot? (Eh, not sure; Archer/Geo do a LOT for later chpaters and not much for Chapter 1).  And do I think even a small amount of grinding is merited, opening up Mediator invitation shenanigans or is the challenge still too easy to justify that?  Thing is...if the challenge is so easy that grinding isn't merited, the two things that would be keeping it out of the "merited" range would be guns and dance.  Don't think Knights with Move+2 or Thieves with Equip Sword are really in the "comfortably beat the game without grinding or needing to reset much" range, and my confidence on Samurai beating the game without resets or grinding is...currently a bit low thanks to my SCC testing.  Bards and Mimes...it's unclear if unlocking those classes is even worth it. 

So this draws my eye to Mediator and Dancer as the jobs that might make this still comfortable to beat without grinding.

Am I overlooking Dance too much?  Eh, maybe, Dance seems to be doing a lot, but Dance still doesn't contribute much to problem fights like Altima, Velius, Wiegraf.

Thinking Mediator?

15: OK, so it's 15, Samurai still hasn't been banned, but...neither has Knight.  And banning Knight is going to make Velius a serious problem.  Basically means there isn't really a good way to do the fight without some grinding. 

(Footnote on "not grinding" methods for Velius: Well...ok technically, you could go Bard Ramza, and build up some comical amount of PA in the Wiegraf fight from Battle Song, although labelling this as a "not grinding" method is a bit suspect cause when you raise your Speed 10 times and PA 20 times you do gain like...3 levels and 600 JP on Ramza in the process, so...ehhh...not sure that counts).

What else is going on?  ...Obviously Knights are getting better and better in the early chapters as their early competition is stripped away; now looking like they largely bring most of the power in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.  Thief bringing Move+2 is the other big relevant early contribution.  But on the flip side, Dancer into Samurai is also looking like a hot, hot build.  You're going to want some Dancers--long range, evade ignoring, destroys statusable enemies.  And Samurai is a strong exit strategy for them since the one thing Dancers lack is damage, and Samurai can provide that...eventually, with enough JP investment.  Dancers and Samurai both want to be female, so that's nice too.

Thief I guess deserves some credit here as they contribute both early and late--early on to the Knights with Move+2, and later on to Samurai with Dance and Move+2.

But on the whole, I can't help but feel Knights have the most impact on Chapter 1, the most impact on Chapter 2, and while Dancers do a bunch of mook smashing in Chapter 3, and maybe you see some Koutetsu from a Samurai in Chapter 3, Knight still rises to the top when it actually matters (Equip Sword for Velius).  That's like three chapters Knight could be argued to be the MVP.  Knight

16: Samurai OK, let me first state the obvious; we're definitely in the realm of grinding now.  If you want to beat this comfortably without a bunch of resets, you need to grind for at least one of Samurai or Dancer, or else you're doing a Thief SCC for the first two chapters.  And grinding out Dancer alone isn't enough cause they have damage issues for boss blitzes, eventually they will need Samurai.  While Samurai without grinding also has trouble with boss blitzes, Samurai with grinding and Move+2 can absolutely pack damage.  And it's not like, with grinding, they would struggle with mook smashing if Dancer was taken away--they have blade grasp and evade ignoring moves for mooks.

17: Dancer

18: Red Chocobo

19: Thief  I assume these three stay the same.

This makes the amended hard ban list (where carrier classes, Gained JP Up, phoenix down, etc get banned)...

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Archer
14. Mediator
15. Knight
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on March 10, 2021, 06:46:55 AM
FFT Special character class ranking continued.

6: Steel Giant: Work's damage is based on PA, which it has.  High HP is also valued which it also has.  What it lacks is Speed, being somewhere between an unequipped Summoner and a Lancer.  Yet despite the Speed weakness as well as a few other unique weaknesses, the Steel Giant didn't feel scrubby to use.  The ranged attack doesn't require a line of sight and it gets an innate Defense Up.  Counter too though it doesn't come into play that often with Defense Up in place.  Also immune to six elements which is convenient for Earth Slash, among other options.

So immune to Faith-based magic and takes reduced damage from physicals.  Very few opponents have any sort of ability capable of dealing full damage to the 'bot.  This is a trait that is unique to its class.

Auto-innocent conveys some unique advantages and disadvantages, which I won't go into here.  Then there are the weaknesses.  One is low mobility, which combined with low speed, means most of its skillset doesn't see use.  It's also immune to buffs, most notably Haste so Ramza is one of the few options for speeding up your mechanical buddy.  That lightning weakness gives it a few unique vulnerabilities that only squids share.  Non-Faith based lightning will bring it down quickly.  Skeletons can make a large dent but it's the Red Dragons that are especially dangerous to Worker 8.  Combined with its immunity to Faith based magic, it will become very difficult to get it online and healthy once it has been subjected to lightning breath.

7. Engineer (Mustadio): I feel weird putting Engineer this high.  It has 115% Speed but its other stats are unimpressive.  However Snipe is a Speed and weapon based skillset and Engineer has access to hats and guns innately so it does meet the main criteria of this ranking. being well suited to supporting its native skillset.  Also has robes which support spell gun + Black Robe while still leaving the support slot and accessory free.
  With his mediocre multipliers in MP, PA, and MA, he doesn't have many strong options for secondaries but there are a few that are decent.  Item is OK.  Not amazing given how the AI preys on low HP people (and therefore better for high HP units that don't get picked on as much) but independent of his stats.  Charge for squeezing out more gun damage.  Battle Skill has some situational applications.  Throw feels redundant but does grow in strength unlike gun damage.  Jump with a spell gun is an unusual option that can sometimes do more damage than Attack (more often as levels increase) and the high Speed of the class supports connecting those Jumps.

8. Soldier: Of the three sword using classes Cloud can pick from, Soldier has the highest MA for powering Limits.  Also has a good HP multiplier to fuel Blade Beam, as little as this means it's still something.  The other stats aren't that important in the context of Limit but the class has high multipliers so Cloud can use most secondaries decently.  Only average Speed but can wear hats.  Being able to equip ribbons is a unique niche that no other male character has though I'm not coming up with any situations where I'd be willing to give up the +2 Speed and the HP of the Thief Hat for greater status protection.

  Despite Soldier having way better multipliers than Engineer (speed excepted), decided to put it below Engineer in my ranking because of threat range.  Mustadio gets 3 Move + 8 ranged gun for a total of 11 before movement increases.  Cloud has 3 Move and 3 threat range in most common cases.  This is a rather noticeable difference in how frequently Cloud can attack.

OK, now I'm getting into classes where the characters I feel perform better by changing into another class and setting their unique skill as the secondary if they want to use it.  Granted Byblos doesn't have a choice but if it did...

9. Heaven Knight: Both Heaven and Hell Knights feel really close in this ranking and could flip positions based on mood or just placing more importance on different criteria.  Heaven Knight has the same issue as Holy Knight where its stat multipliers try to do both physical and magical and end up not being great at either.  Even 100% multipliers across the board other than Speed which it excels at with 115%.  And hats.  If she had something to channel all that speed into, she'd feel more competitive.  My experiences with playing with Heaven Knight are to take shots with Truth if outside stick poking range or are fortunate enough to target multiple enemies and poke with stick on individuals.  Female MA has me give it the nod in this ranking as it will provide more power to its skillset and its stick pokes.

10. Hell Knight: I want to like Hell Knight as a class.  4 Move, 110% Speed and hats, and sticks.  No glaring stat weaknesses (no real strengths either and its MP is almost pointless since it's awful with any skills that require MP.  I find I play it similarly to Heaven Knight and with male MA, Malak is statistically worse at the approach.  Even before factoring in how awful Un-Truth is. 

I've settled upon my ranking so the shortlist is up.  Later entries to be revealed when I type up my thoughts on them.

1. Holy Swordsman
2. Squire (C4 Ramza)
3. Temple Knight
4. Divine Knight (Meliadoul)
5. Holy Knight (Agrias)
6. Steel Giant (Worker 8)
7. Engineer (Mustadio)
8. Soldier
9. Heaven Knight
10. Hell Knight
11. ??
12. ??
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2021, 01:42:45 AM
Huh, I think I must be thinking of LFT, cause I could have sworn Malak could equip some stuff Rafa couldn't.  Yep, I am definitely thinking of LFT, where Malak has innate two swords and can equip rods.

In vanilla he has exactly the same equipment as Rafa (Staff, Stick, Hat, Clothes, Robe) and overall slightly worse multipliers before factoring in that he's also male.  Oof.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on March 13, 2021, 04:16:46 AM
Malak has higher MP and PA going solely by numbers.  Neither of which actually matter to classes with MA powered weapons and skillsets that don't use MP.  I did crosscheck with a save file of mine too since there are a few errors lurking in the BMG to trip the presumptuous.  (He also has higher raw MP on my file somehow but that's irrelevant to the topic at hand)

Last two classes to write up:

11. Dragoner: Unlike previous classes which leaned towards average stat multipliers, Dragoner has great stats.  Picture a Mime but with much better MP and slightly less MA.  What drags it down for this ranking is an almost complete inability to wear equipment.  And even though it has a bunch of innate support skills, they're mostly inconsequential.  Monster Talk does nothing unless Talk Skill is the secondary since the Dragon skillset doesn't need it to function.  Two Swords sounds cool but without any Brave tweaking, two punches do less damage than a equal leveled Meliadoul whacking something with Excalibur.  Train is mostly whatever because of low damage punches and that the formation screen is probably already packed.  Also in the lategame, having a well-built team probably does more than seeking new allies.  It does have a niche in taming chocobos for allies to ride while still having 5 active ally units on the field, OK I'll give it that.
  If it weren't for incredible growth (which I'm not factoring into the ranking here), 140% HP mult won't really close the gap that a lack of armor creates.  With only 3 move and an inability to wear boots to increase that and 2 range on her attacks, Dragoner often spends the battle out of attack range.  (sure Holy Bracelet exists with better range and MT capability but hahaha good luck hitting with it)  Poor movement is yet another reason why innate Two Swords is mostly inconsequential.  Lack of equipment options also means no options for using gear for stat boosting.  So Dragoner ends up being not that great at carrying its own skillset.  Best option for Dragoner is 108 Gems for the element boosts. Compare that to say, a Geomancer where she can put on a Rune Blade and an Aegis Shield and it is already up +3 MA, more than enough to make up the difference in base MA.  And with 1 more Move than Dragoner.  I'd throw on Red Shoes for more mobility and another MA point and she's become much better at closing range.  Mage classes with Black Robe and Red Shoes will also be good carriers for those who really want to use the Dragon skillset (middling as it is).

12. Byblos: The skillset operates independent of stats other than HP, which is does get.  The Speed is terrible though, maybe a bit more than Steel Giant (gets Speed points a bit faster, mostly not noticeable).  3 Move and low speed are an awful combo.  It does have higher range on its skills and I debated putting Dragoner at the bottom of the list due to range differences.  Decided that the fire weakness is enough of a drawback to put Byblos' class at the very bottom.  That and low speed make it very vulnerable to getting fried by Wizards.  It's actually the final sequence that was the deciding factor.  Rofel's mages are a threat.  Kletian's Ninjas can nail the fire weakness.  Balk's chemist will roast it.  Hashulam has Melt to melt it.  So after going to all the trouble to recruit it, only two out of the last six fights do not put it at risk of high fire damage?  Yikes.
  Poor thing, since fire weakness is less of an issue than lightning weakness in general.  Only Hydras and Tiamats (and Ninjas) have high fire damage with Now timing and they're deadly to everything. (Math Skill mages are rare enough to not really be an issue) Byblos does get innate Ignore Height, Counter, and Secret Hunt but how much of a difference does that really make.  Ignore Height is neat though only relevant on maps with large elevation differences.  Secret Hunt will rarely come into play with 3 Move and low Speed.  Counter is welcome though with PA about on par with a Red Panther, don't expect really big numbers from it unless high leveled (like in the 70s or more).  Also 3 Move and low speed so how often is it really going to be close to the action?

Skillset is nice but if it had a choice, Byblos would probably change classes to something with better parameters.

Final ranking though by no means definitive.  There are many possible arguments to make that could shift ranks around, only some of which occurred to me.

1. Holy Swordsman
2. Squire (C4 Ramza)
3. Temple Knight
4. Divine Knight (Meliadoul)
5. Holy Knight (Agrias)
6. Steel Giant (Worker 8)
7. Engineer (Mustadio)
8. Soldier
9. Heaven Knight
10. Hell Knight
11. Dragoner
12. Byblos
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2021, 07:58:04 AM
Hadn't picked up Samurai SCC in a bit.  Part of what I was interested in was the contrast between Samurai and Archer, so picked up Archer SCC for a bit instead.

Pretty big contrast of being broke in Chapter 1, unlike samurai which did a ton of randoms to unlock the class.  Not being able to afford battle boots often behind on hats or clothing, never bought armor for Delita/Algus to go to Knight.

1 reset on Dorter 1 (probably preventable; made some obvious mistakes and forgot to put Move+1 and potion on Delita).  1 reset on Sand Rat Cellar.  Bow Gun does 15 with line of sight issues so cleaning up a fight if something goes wrong is not very fast, and not everyone had a charge skill learned for these fights.

And then you get longbows.  0 resets everywhere else so far.  Forgot that Silver Bows are buyable after Lenalia Plateau, lol, so I did 3 fights with 20% less damage.

Everyone has either Charge+2 or Charge+3 depending on where their JP was at the time, and are now saving up for Concentrate.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 15, 2021, 06:14:33 AM
Archers past Golgorand; luckily for me this is around when I learned Arrow Guard.  Had arrow guard on 4 people by that fight, and bought the highest HP clothing on everyone, which, with a little luck, was enough.  Only 1 reset so far in Chapter 2: in Bariaus Valley (right side got perma-charmed by an enemy archer that never failed a steal heart).

Realized I'm going to have to grind to 18 in order to do Wiegraf because Charge is unlike other delayed action skillsets and eats your wait in spot CT.  (And against Wiegraf I need both 108 gems and Charge+5 or my damage will be too low, needs level 18 for the speed point.  If Charge allowed for wait in spot CT it would be doable at level 14).

Overall class doesn't feel jaw dropping or anything.  Bow damage right now is 36, so about the same as gun damage before charge.  Bows with concentrate kinda feels like guns with extra steps at the moment.  But I guess it's "guns with extra steps" that also gets access to charge and arrow guard, which are both pretty cool.

---

EDIT: about 5 resets at Gate of Lionel.  So the basic plan was rubber shoes on people, Ramza opens the gate and dies, kill Gafgarion, Ramza revives.  This hit a couple snags.  First was Knights highrolling with geomancy status (petrify landing is really bad.  Confusion landing is...almost as bad as petrify cause I can't damage my own units when I have lightning bows and rubber shoes).  Second was that Gaf runs forward through an archway, and I'm not good at knowing what positions will be blocked for bows under the archway.  Moving forward to shoot Gaf, and then not being able to shoot Gaf is...bad.

Doesn't necessarily signal weakness of the class--might be me being bad at knowing Archer bow arcs under archways.  (Also might be partially RNG--enemies turbo highrolled with geomancy, like...two different runs with two archers petrified by turn 2.  Although...there was at least one loss where no knights had geomancy, so it wasn't all RNG).

0 resets on queklain.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on March 16, 2021, 04:55:33 AM
For what it's worth, I do think the unintuitive arrow arcing mechanics is absolutely a weakness of the class (albeit a small one). If you can be screwed over by a mechanic so obscure that even the FFT BMG doesn't document it, I think it's fair to associate that with the class itself.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2021, 09:56:22 AM
This makes the amended hard ban list (where carrier classes, Gained JP Up, phoenix down, etc get banned)...

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Archer
14. Mediator
15. Knight
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

OK, well got kinda sick, and also distracted by other games, haven't been playing FFT, but I tentatively adjusted the hard ban tier list a while ago without editing a new image, but...before I edit a new image does the logic still hold up?

Knight with some Archer should cover chapter 1.  Archer does okay in Chapter 2 up until Lionel Gate, but really worth noting that...while Samurai also needed rubber shoes and switching Ramza to a higher HP class, they did have an easier time at Lionel Gate.  Draw Out's just more damage single target, and gets to hit multi-target.  Part of this is just "it's chapter 2" though, where everything that uses MA is strong.

Do guns eliminate the problems Archers have in this fight?  They might help a little, but not much.  Same damage.  Still struggle with Gaffy walking through a narrow archway.

Under a no grinding plan, given that Gained JP Up is banned, do you even unlock Samurai and get 180 JP for Koutetsu by this fight?  Judging by JP numbers on my Archer SCC...I think possible, but barely.  Probably involves some questionable stuff like going into Golgorand on a prereq job or possibly a Samurai with no skills, so that would suck.  Well...but only if you were getting supported by spillover JP, so maybe you don't actually have Samurai unlocked if you aren't getting much spillover to help the unlocking.

What about Dancer?  I mean, speaking of classes that do better in early chapters; Wiznaibus would probably be impressive here.  But...no without Gained JP Up, the prereqs are about 1500 JP, people on my Archer SCC people were like 1000-1300 total JP before Lionel (and that's with spillover support).

What about Knight?  Knight with Concentrate and Charge can wear high HP Equipment (enough to soak some gaffy hits) and hit harder than Archers at this point, which helps both with blitzing down the fight if someone dies, and helps with blitzing down gaffy, and helps with the line of sight issues in the archway letting more people hit.

Yeah...that sounds like Knight would work; often I just needed to hit with one more person without blocking other character's line of sight, and a knight could move to his side and still be able to attack (whereas archers can't attack from the side due to not being able  to blindfire inside an archway).

Should Knight be considered for #13 instead of Archer?  Well...maybe.  But you're probably still using mostly Archers for the fight, maybe 1 or 2 Knights, and even on the Knight characters leaning on Archer skills such as Concentrate, Charge, so...not really.

And once Archer goes, the quirk of ban-a-thon lists rears its head where Mediator now has no competition for ranged attacks, so still probably goes immediately after.  And...probably some grinding is required if you want to beat some of these fight without resets, but Mediator does some silly things with grinding like inviting monsters and poaching and picking up elemental guns.  Also...pretty tempted to learn Equip Gun on like...every character.  Mediator #14 is probably fine.

Since we're probably in the realm of grinding at this point, does Samurai overtake Knight for #15?  Like...you probably do grind if you want to beat Chapter 2 with low numbers of resets.  The problem for Samurai is that I think I care more about Dancer's impact on Chapter 2 than Samurai's.  The opposite side of the coin of ban-a-thons, where two similar classes can just hold each other down.  And until you unlock one of those two, you do lean hard on Knight.  And Knight thanks to Equip Sword is still a big deal in Chapter 3 to kill Velius.  In fact, Chapter 4 Knight with access to Ice Healing, Dance, and Move+2 sounds like it smashes the chapter just fine.  Yeah, the argument for Samurai over Knight here seems weak.  Knight #15 still sounds fine.

So ok, updated image:

(https://i.imgur.com/1Te2McL.png)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 21, 2021, 08:44:15 AM
So Artosis did a Starcraft Brood War unit tier list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWfZiQEHgj0

I don't really agree with all of his placements, but it's a good jumping off point.

First, I want to discuss what the probe, drone, SCV, and overlord rankings actually mean, since obviously if you told someone they couldn't build these, they just wouldn't be able to do anything.  Artosis makes some pretty good points with the probe and how a probe on the map is really dangerous:

1. Probe can gas steal
2. Probe can cannon rush
3. Probe is good at scouting and harassment due to regenerating shields

So like...when I ask a question like "can you win without probes?" it's going to imply "can you win without sending probes out on the map, without attacking with probes, or using probes for combat functions like blocking ramps?"  And...you can, but you are certainly hurt in several ways--you'll struggle with early scouting, your early offense options are significantly diminished, you can't play greedy and then defend against cheese with probe micro.

One other thing I want to declare in advance--Artosis made declarations on unit power based on whether they are used in all matchups, and I agree with that BUT I'm going to put slightly less weight on mirror matchups.  (Like...the defiler is almost never used in ZvZ, but should that lower its tier ranking?  Probably not, right--it's still so impactful against the two other matchups.  Meanwhile, the Battlecruiser is used almost entirely in TvT, which means deleting it from the game would not upset race balance).

Ok, so S-tier, these are units that are way out of line at what they do, basically end up defining brood war.  These are units that if you had access to all three races you'd be looking to build:

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel

Zergling damage is just well above what would be expected.  Worth noting that it was substantially reduced in starcraft 2.  The zergling is a matchup defining unit built in large numbers in all three matchups.

Mutalisks are funny because their stats were actually buffed for starcraft 2, and they're not nearly as good there.  The AI pathfinding is just so bad in brood war that flying units that don't get stuck bumping into each other are very hard to deal with.  In addition, nearly all damage that hits air is explosive damage, which means mutalisks take half damage from it.  And of the base flying units, mutalisks are the only ones that have a ground attack just as good as their air attack, making them a threat even to people building full ground armies.

Defiler spells just warp how you have to play against Zerg.  A lot of armies just can't damage under Dark Swarm at all.  And Plague outright shuts down a lot of strategies and units against zerg.  Being able to get energy back fast with consume is also excellent.

High Templar...brood war storm is special.  Compared to Starcraft 2 storm, it's like 50% more damage, and does its full damage in half the time, so even if you react quickly and move out of the storm, you still take tons of damage.

If Siege Tanks could hit air, I don't think there would be any army that could reliably beat mass siege tank.  Not that they can't ever be broken with ground units, but in a ground war they are generally the most important unit.

Science Vessels are just completely matchup-defining in Terran vs Zerg.  In a lategame TvZ, casters will tell you to not look at the supply count, not look at anything the zerg has, just look at the Science Vessel count, and this will be the most accurate measure of who is winning.  They're also very powerful in TvP.  Just being a detector is very useful against both Dark Templar and Arbiters.  EMP removes all shields which is excellent damage, but also blanks out the energy on spellcasters like high templar and arbiters.  Defense Matrix is also a highly useful spell in the right situation.

---

A-tier these are units that the race would really struggle to function without.  If you couldn't use these units (in a combat role) for a day, the race would be in a lot of trouble in multiple matchups.  If you had access to all races, you definitely would think about using some of these.

A: Vulture, Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge

Vulture is honestly on the A/S borderline.  What they do is pretty ridiculous for 75 minerals.  Fastest unit in the game.  Able to drop 3 mines, any one of which can one-shot more expensive units.  Able to kill worker lines.  Able to give lots of map vision with mines.  But...they're non-essential against zerg, and in TvT they're more of an earlygame thing that drops off.  I did just watch an FFA custom map where people had access to all races, and only one player made vultures, switching off of them later in the game once they had upgrades on zerglings.

Probe as discussed is the scariest worker, can cannon rush, is excellent at harassment, can build an assimilator in the opponent's base to gas steal.  Is pretty essential for scouting since protoss really doesn't have a good alternative for an early scout.  As well as all the normal things you expect out of workers like helping defend against rushes.

Overlords are excellent detection, so good at scouting that zerg often doesn't even bother with sending a scouting drone, good for dropping, as well as being basically free cause you're going to build them anyway for supply.  I've straight up seen an overlord get mind controlled in a game that had become a 1v1, cause the protoss needed a dropship, and then later it was used as a detector.  There might be an argument for S-tier here, but ehh...just because you build overlords doesn't mean you'll get drop upgrades or bring them with your army for detection.

Dragoon among all of the massable ranged units that can hit air like Hydralisks and Goliaths and Marines are just clearly the best.  Why are they the best?  Cause Marines have 40 HP, Hydralisks have 80 HP, Goliaths have 125 HP, and Psionic Storm deals 120 damage.  But Dragoons have 180 HP (and they are also really fat, so even poorly controlled they don't bunch up as much against splash damage like storm and siege tanks).

Zealots get used in every matchup, they're a great mineral sink, they are basically zerglings with 4x the health, but then ultralisks are zealots with not even 4x the health, so you know.

Scourge get a lot of value in every matchup, and are just probably the best anti-air option in the game.  The existence of scourge just changes how you have to play against zerg.

---

B-tier: These are units that are still kind-of game warping, or just really important to the functionality of their race.

B-tier: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Reaver, Dropship, SCV, Observer

Lurker: my first pass of this had these in A-tier because they are so central to Zerg lategame, but in the end I'm conceding Artosis this one, every other race has better ground AoE.  Zerg needs some kind of ground AoE, so they cling to lurkers, and it is essential to them, but they're not siege tanks, and they're not high templar.  Not even close.

Shuttle, Dropship: Yeah, so look, Shuttle is definitely a little better than Dropship, and my original list reflected this, but bottom line, neither Terran nor Protoss wants to give up shuttles or dropships in any matchup.  Would you build either of these if you had access to all three races?  Fuck no, you'd use overlords.  If you had access to only Terran and Protoss would you ever build a Dropship?  I mean, you might, if you teched to starport before stargate.  Dropships are also faster than Shuttles before getting the shuttle upgrade (after which shuttle is faster).  I think, while one of these is clearly a bit better, they are close enough to be same tier.

Golaith: You never really want to mass up on these, you just do so as a response to air units.  They do have the best ground to air attack, of course (8 range, much more damage than their ground to ground attack).  And are just all around pretty good units (even their ground attack is honestly fairly solid).

Dark Templar: If you told a protoss player they had to not build Dark Templar, they could...function.  No one race requires going DT.  But they are quite strong, including in subtle ways (if they kill something in one hit, like a worker, there's no notification, so even pro players don't necessarily notice).  Usable in all three matchups.  Reasonably important vs T.

Reaver: As I've mentioned before, I'm putting less weight on mirror matchups, and this does just break PvP.  But in the other matchups...it's okay.  You can make Reavers against Terran or Zerg, and they are quite effective.  But it wouldn't be weird to play a match against Terran or Zerg without them.

SCV: These do three things above and beyond a regular worker that I think deserves a callout in this tier.  One is scout.  Marines are a terrible scouting option, and it's not great to wait until vulture.  Another is repairing.  They can repair tanks, and that's pretty good.  Another is building turrets next to their tanks in the middle of the map.  SCVs are worth bringing with a tank push against both Terran and Protoss, and I think that, along with all the other things that workers do like using them to defend rushes, is enough to justify them in this tier.

Observer: look, yes, observers are the worst detection, they move really slow, they have garbage vision range, I get it.  But it's a little like the Lurker, yeah, your race is bad at this, what are you gonna do, not bother?  LOL good luck with that.

---

C-tier: The race definitely doesn't want to lose these, but it might only hurt them in one matchup

Corsair, Marine, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone

Corsairs are only used in one matchup (against zerg) but of the games I've watched recently, corsairs get built basically every game against zerg.  The only thing holding corsairs back is that they have no ground attack.  Other than that, remember how I said mutas were good because they are light, and everything that hits air deals explosive damage?  Corsairs are medium, so they also benefit from that (but not as much).  Tons of health (180).  Their singletarget damage against air is fine (about the same as a dragoon) but they have AoE splash.  And they're tied for the fastest air unit.  And they can moving shot.  And their build time is fast (tied for fastest build time among protoss units).  The only thing that holds them back is that air units suck so no one builds them, so they have nothing to shoot at.  The moment they have air units to kill (against zerg) they are pretty great.

Marines and Medics are non-viable in two matchups cause they get murdered by splash damage at long range, but they are very core against zerg.  Not completely core, you can go mech, but still most TvZ games are still Marine Medic.

Archons are units you'd only ever actually want against zerg, since they're solid against zerglings.  But they are basically free after high templar so you'll use them incidentally in other matchups.

Hydralisks tend to end up being core against Protoss.  Which is funny, for years against protoss you wouldn't see many of them, it's not like they're great units.  But then corsairs were everywhere, and hydras are the only ground unit zerg has that can attack air units.  And building air units to kill corsairs is suicide, because the Corsairs will win.  Basically, because corsairs are meta, Zerg has to go hydra every time against protoss.

Drone really doesn't do anything special the way the other workers do.  But you can attack with them if you get rushed.  And defending rushes is still a sufficiently core enough part of the game that I don't think it makes sense to put Drone lower than C-tier.

---

D-tier: These units are used rarely or are used in one matchup but not every game

Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk

Firebat is used lategame as a way to fight against dark swarm, since they will do full damage underneath dark swarm (and also have pretty good AoE against zerglings).

Wraith is...something I basically don't see against protoss, occasionally see against zerg as a way of killing overlords or killing guardains, and is pretty good in Terran vs Terran to prevent the opponent from building only siege tanks, but I weigh mirror matches a little bit lower.

Carrier is built almost exclusively in Protoss vs Terran, and even then it's not that popular of a tech switch in the high level games I've watched recently.  You need a lot of time, with a lot of your resources and army basically hidden (it's very bad if it gets scanned early allowing the Terran to switch into Goliaths).

Ultralisk is used almost exclusively in Zerg vs Terran these days.  I do remember years ago seeing them against protoss, but I believe they are just a one race unit now.  Compared to the Zealot they have 2.5x the health, with 1.8x the damage, for 4x the price.  So the same way the zealot is less efficient but fatter than the zergling, the ultra is less efficient but fatter than the zealot.  But unlike the zealot they cost gas too.  But still, they have fast movement speed (with the upgrade faster than zealots), and if you upgrade their armour then subtraction defence means marines struggle to kill them.  So they can be a lategame pick in this matchup sometimes.

---

E-tier: limited to relatively niche uses in usually one matchup

Guardian, Valkyrie, Queen, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

Guardians get used sometimes when a terran has countered the mutalisks, but might not have a good way of dealing with guardians, or when there's a really weird map with a bunch of open space.  They tend not to be used against protoss unless all the corsairs get killed.  They don't show up against zerg.  Against Terran they tend to be a one-time "gotcha" surprise.  I do wonder about moving these up to D-tier, since I do see them in pro games a decent amount, but I mean, they're definitely a step below carriers and ultralisks and firebats, so this is probably the place for them.

Valkyries are used...other than the mirror matchup where all the bad terran air units get made, get used sometimes as a response when Zerg goes unusually mutalisk heavy, and any other build would die to them (science vessels are not fast enough for the mass muta surprise kill you).

Queens are made sometimes when a lategame Terran goes very tank heavy, and then spawn broodling can be used to kill the tanks.  This requires a ton of planning ahead, hiding the queens for a long time since Spawn Broodling costs 150 energy.  There are also some niche uses to queens; ensnare completely negates the effects of stim on marines, which means there are some timing builds that use queens.  There is some argument for these in D-tier, but...I just don't see them in pro matches as often as I see ultralisks, and see them more often used as a tank counter than a stim marine counter (and the 150 energy buildup thing where you need to hide them for that long is a fairly harsh limitation for that, plus it's more of a reactive response if the terran is going too tank heavy, can't just autopilot tech to queens).

Dark Archon is on the lower end of this group I think?  If you can tech to them, they are very scary.  Mind control can completely change the game.  Maelstrom is excellent against zerg.  But...I very rarely see anyone tech to them at all.

Battlecruisers are really only used in Terran vs Terran.  Against Protoss they are too weak to arbiters.  Against Zerg they will occasionally get used as harassment in ones or twoes.  But mostly it's a lategame option against Terran (much like Carriers and Ultras are lategame anti-terran options).  But I'm weighing mirror matches lower--if Battlecruisers stopped existing, it would do almost nothing to the balance of the game.

Ghosts are also a primarily Terran vs Terran thing.  You build them, you nuke some tank lines.  They do also have some fringe potential against carriers hitting them with lockdown.

---

F-tier In the end my F-tier ended up being the same as Artosis, I feel least confident about these units and the ones in E-tier, so I may just be trusting his judgment here.

Devourer, Scout, Broodling

Devourer: they can have some fringe uses as an anti-corsair or anti carrier unit.  But not on their own, they apply a debuff but deal basically no damage themselves, and then rely on other units to clean up.  They do pop up in pro games very occasionally, but man they are pretty underwhelming.

Scout: I think I've maybe seen these in a pro game once?  They are fine air-to-air against one big target like a carrier, and they have a ground attack (even if their ground attack is terrible).  But like...yeah, terrans don't build any anti-air early on against protoss, so sometimes they can be caught off-guard occasionally by a scout.  But..still it's easy to make fun of the scout, cause they're basically a bad wraith.  4 range to Wraith's 5 range.  No cloak.  They move much slower (unless you get an upgrade, then they match the wraith's movement).  They cost 60% more, but deal the same ground damage and 40% more air damage.  Their one big win is having roughly double the health of a Wraith.  But man, "bad wraith" is not a great selling point.

Broodling: Actually I will deviate from Artosis on this one point--Broodlings can cause siege tanks to deal splash damage to each other, so I don't think they belong in FF tier.

---

FF-tier

Inested Terran

Infested Terran...searching for any pro games that actually use these, the two that I could find were literally on a map with a neutral command center in the middle of the map to be infested.  (To be fair, they do seem like decent units against a protoss who's making zealots and high templar, but yeah, normally you could only even theoretically get these against terran, and you'd never be able to protect the building).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 21, 2021, 07:33:11 PM
OK, reviewing this...

Surprisingly when I made a youtube comment on his video with some (not all) of these changes, I got some replies.

Let's go over some.

Reavers moved to A-tier.  So...I initially put them in B-tier thinking of PvT and PvZ, but they do actually just kind-of break PvP.  And there is a difference between being usable in a mirror matchup (like wraiths) and being so good that the matchup warps around you.  And they are still solid, if not seen every game vs T and vs Z, you can focus your build around them against Z.  They also just...shape every matchup in some way--making Terran never build marines, for example.  This is the comment I got that I think is pretty reasonable.

I got another comment who thought Corsairs were inherently not a great unit and deserved D or E tier (lol no).  Hydras were good and deserved B-tier (they deal explosive damage, which means half damage to zerglings, mutalisks, marines, and medics, so the four most important units in two matchups.  And part of the reason hydras are built agianst P is to deal with all the corsairs--zerg prior to the corsair meta shift didn't always make hydra.  The argument for Hydras in B would be that they're okay against Terran mass goliath builds, which was a build that got popular at pro levels for a bit, and technically makes them ok in two matchups).  Final claim was Science Vessels shouldn't be in S tier (Eh.  They are like SS+ tier in TvZ, and Aish tier in TvP.  Average of SS+ and A is S, but it is pretty fair to point out that they're not great TvT--weighing TvT more does move them down).

And finally didn't like marines and medics on the same tier, which...is fair?  Marines matter at very least in both TvP and TvZ, and some TvT cheese, you can make them for rushes just because you're forced to build a barracks and they're the only thing that makes out of a barracks.  You definitely use them for defence against protoss (bunkers are pretty reliably made TvP these days).  A unit that's the build around unit in one matchup, but consistently made in some quantity in other matchups might be a B-tier unit.  I think that's fair.  Makes the list look like this:


S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel

A: Vulture, Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Marine, Dropship, SCV, Observer

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Queen, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran

Okay, I'd like to even out the size of tiers a bit.

Stuff I feel could move around...

Vulture can make a claim at S.  Not built that much against zerg, in TvT it stops getting built late, those are the things holding me back on that.  Uniquely good against protoss because concussive damage deals full damage to shields, but like, if you asked protoss for one unit they wanted to delete out of terran, it would probably still be siege tank.  But...Vultures do really stand out for what they do.

SCV makes a pretty good claim at A.  Basically always brought with tank pushes to repair and build turrets mid map (more than Goliaths).  Pretty key for scouting.  Proxies are a thing.  Defending against rushes are a thing.  Yeah, I'm convinced.

That still leaves 8 units in B-tier, and 5 units in C-tier.  Best candidates for moving down a tier are like...dropship, marine, observer.  Eh, think it's marine still, you can definitely play mech TvZ.  You really wouldn't want to play without dropships or observers.

D and E tier are a 4-6 split.  Is there a good candidate for moving from E to D?  I'm...going to trust Artosis' original placement here and move Queen back to D tier.  I think they're a little worse against Terran than Ultras, but cleanly better than guardians.  Queens win the game in the right scenario.  Guardians...are just a bit of harassment.

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel, Vulture

A: Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver, SCV

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Dropship, Observer

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Marine

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran

That balances it out to 7 units in each of the top 3 tiers, 6 in C tier, 5 in D and E tier, and F and FF are just special.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 22, 2021, 08:31:29 PM
Okay so some unit stratification.

Would zerg trade Zergling for any unit in S tier?  No, absolutely not, they need a mineral dump.  Only mineral dump option is vultures, but zerg wouldn't make that trade.  Zergling might actually be just a tier above.

Would zerg trade Mutalisk for any of the units in S tier?  Maybe.  Picking up Siege Tank or Vulture is tempting, and either one would basically make them win the protoss matchup.  This implies terran gets mutas, though, and Zerg probably just loses to terran mutas.  Picking up High Templar might be the better choice; HT aren't great against mutas, but at least they hit them, and this would also imply protoss would not have high templar, so maybe zerg just wins that matchup now, and having HTs against Terran would be pretty nice.  Science Vessels are also a trade worth thinking about, irradiate would be the best answer to Terran mutas, and Terran would lose their whole lategame.  And EMP might help more against protoss than mutas do.

Would zerg trade Defiler for an S tier unit?  Probably vultures assuming vultures could still be built early on.  Vultures stop zealots.  Vultures stop medic/marines.  Mines can even stop reaver drops.  These are the things currently used against zerg.  The question is whether zerg without defiler would maybe struggle against something else (maybe carriers and battlecruisers?) but I think with vultures you just kill them before any of that matters.

Would protoss trade High Templar for an S-tier unit?  Siege Tanks, easily, that's just an upgrade.  Maybe Vultures.  This would mean Terran not having Vultures, and protoss would take that trade.  There's definitely a concern about dying to a hydra bust without high templar, but if toss can get vulture production going, vultures can do straight up fights with hydras better than dragoons can, hydras are not great against mines.  Zerglings, sure; cripples zerg, probably helps about as much as high templar against terran.  I don't think they can justify Mutas.  Defilers?  Yeah, actually, they'd trade High Templar for Defilers.  Zealot Dark Swarm deals with mass hydra well enough, and would be nasty against terran.

Would Terran trade siege tank for anything?  No.  Well...Zergling.

Would Terran trade vulture for anything?  (Other than Zergling).  Hmm...if they trade for mutas they beat zerg, but lose to protoss.  If they trade for defilers they still lose to zerg cause vultures beat them up.  Don't think they're in the market for high templar.

Would terran trade science vessel for anything?  So far not many people have wanted to trade for SV, cause it won't help them against terran.  But...can't safely trade SVs with high templar--don't think terran could win against zerg with HTs instead of Vessels.  And...honestly not sure terran would win against protoss either with HTs instead of Vessels--no way to stop arbiter recalls.  Don't think they can beat zerg if they trade for defilers, defilers would be ok against toss, but not sure they'd be better than vessels.  Trading for mutas...well I was about to say that Zerg can't stop mutas, but they sure can if they have vessels.  And then terran wouldn't have vessels for the lategame, and zerg would (irradiate on a medic in the middle of an MM clump sounds pretty good.  D-matrix on zerglings is definitely pretty good).  So while not a lot of other races are looking to trade for vessels, Terran's not looking to trade it away either.  (Zergling is probably still a good trade, though).

---

Biggest surprise is how solidly Vulture is in S tier when I was wavering on it.  Loads of people interested in trading for it.

I'm going to go through these one by one, but I can already see a few units that are likely to move around (Dark Archons back to D tier, for example).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 23, 2021, 08:40:05 AM
A tier...

Man, this has probe, SCV, and Overlord.  Units that aren't very simple to think about in trading terms.

Are there any races that would want to trade an S-tier unit for any of these A-tier units?  Maybe Zerg would be interested in trading Defiler for Reaver?   Only if they got Reaver early, though, so they could push a midgame advantage, not if it was hive tech; if it's hive tech they stick with defiler 100%.  Nobody's trading for Zealot or Dragoon.  Are there any S-tier units that would want to trade with Scourge?  Terran could think about trading Science Vessel for Scourge or Reaver.  I think either of these changes make them lose to zerg due to not having vessels, but scourge would be maybe a bit better at answering arbiters than vessels are, and maybe a bit better against carriers, and if terran could mix in some reavers with their siege tank lines that would make them much harder for P to break with gateway units (although taking reaver and not scourge would make them extra vulnerable to arbiters and carriers since Vessels at least do something against those).  That said, this is only a consideration cause Vessels do nothing against terran mech units, so they wouldn't really get punished for this trade.

Nope, I think nothing here is pushing S-tier.

Is protoss looking to trade any of their units for scourge?  Not zealots or dragoons for sure.  Maybe they'd be interested in scourge over reavers, reavers are kind-of an optional build path for them, and being able to say a hard no to drops and take out things like vessels when they have arbiters is kinda interesting.  Might open up like...bio against them, though, so maybe not.

Is Zerg willing to part with scourge for any of these units?  Maybe Reavers.  I honestly don't know what that would do to the TvZ matchup--Vessels would become immortal, but reavers would be a hard no to marine/medic.  Might make them win ZvP though.  They could also think about trading scourge for Zealots--I think that makes them win ZvP cause P wouldn't have zealots, but makes them lose ZvT cause they don't have scourge for vessels.  Trading scourge for dragoons would be similar--goons are way better than hydras, so they'd win vs protoss, but goons won't do great against terran bio, so they'd end up facing terran without scourge.

---

Ok B-tier units.

Let's start with something real quick; I'm going to move dropship down to C, and marine to B.  So B and C look like this at the moment:

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Dropship

Reason being, if you told a terran to play without dropships, outside of TvT they'd manage.  If you told them to play without marines...they die to the first zealot coming across the map, they die to anything cheesy in TvT, they can't make bunkers which have increased in relevance a lot.  Just...yeah, I think they would feel that loss more.

Alright, so B tier units that make sense to trade...Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver.

Is zerg interested in trading scourge for anything here?  Zerg would be in the market for Medic out of C-tier, but that's very meta so let's ignore that.  Maybe Arbiter is a little spicy? But spicy enough to trade scourge for?  I don't think so right?  They need scourge against terran, and sniping observers with scourge is definitely a strategy agaist protoss.

Is protoss willing to trade anything?  I don't think they even consider trading Zealot, as its their only mineral dump, and they aren't looking to replace it with Marine as a mineral dump.  Reaver...nah.  So...I guess does protoss want to trade Dragoon for Goliath, Lurker or Marine?  Hard no to Goliath and Marine.  Lurker...ehh...they would not be able to beat Terran at all with Lurkers, but lurkers are the main reason they build dragoons PvZ, and maybe lurkers would be nice as an anti-zergling tech.  But there's a serious problem with this plan, which is then Zerg beats them up with dragoons instead of hydras, and if they ever lose all their corsairs lategame they need to be terrified of a sudden muta switch.

OK, between the B-tier units...

Would Zerg trade lurker for any of these?  Marine is a funny option, that would be chaos.  Terran needs to defend a marine+ling rush from zerg using mech, but gets to have lurkers later to fend off zerglings.  Protoss...marines have higher DPS for the cost than hydras, so they're better against stuff that doesn't shoot back like corsairs and forges used for wallins.  If they build out of the spawning pool that's pretty nice too, cause it deals with the one zealot standing behind the mineral line; forces them to come out and fight zerglings.  I guess arbiter sounds pretty spicy, but they'd be trading one unit that's good against terran for a different unit that's good against terran.  Maybe scourge+arbiter makes the cloak part of arbiter a problem for protoss?

Skipping over shuttle (can only really talk meaningfully about trading dropships between the three, or look at it in terms of telling a race to pick a unit not to build).

Would Terran trade Goliath for anything here?  Eh, it's their anti-air for mech builds, right?  If they trade Gols what do they do against carriers?  I guess there's some idea to rely on wraiths against carriers, and maybe grab arbiter here.  But if protoss knows your anti-air is going to be wraiths, you will get slaughtered by corsairs.  BCs can beat corsairs, though, so maybe that?

Dark Templar...I mean, trading that for lurker would help them in PvZ maybe, but hurt them in PvT.  Trading for marines is funny, cause they can probably just cheese a Terran without marines.  Assuming the terran gets some kind of replacement, like maybe Firebats no longer require gas or an academy so there's no easy cheese option...marines would still be a little interesting to deny overlord scouting to a zerg.  Way less of an investment than a dragoon.  There's a funny idea of bringing two zealots and a marine, and parking all of them behind the mineral line using the zealots as the wallin.  Trading DTs for Goliaths...I mean, basically allows them to go Carriers vs T.  Probably hurts them vs Z.  Yeah, a lot of unclear mixed results here.

Arbiter...no, protoss wouldn't trade Arbiter with any of this.  Trading Arbiters for Goliaths is a little tempting, the logic being that maybe you can just go carriers.  The problem is the Terran can just go battlecruisers, and the thing that makes BCs unable to fight carriers is Stasis locking out half of the BCs--if Stasis instead locks out half of the carriers, doesn't Terran just win that?  Trading for lurkers...makes the zerg midgame easier to deal with, but at the expense of the Terran matchup.  (Some concern about Zerg doing nasty stuff with lategame arbiters, so maybe it doesn't even help the zerg matchup).  Trading with marines?  Only if it lets them reliably cheese in the earlygame.  Ignoring the fuzzy "can you just kill a race if you trade away their first tier unit" question, trading for marines would improve their vs Z matchup.  So okay, yeah, maybe marines.  Looks like Marines and Arbiters might be on the strong end of B-tier.

Would Terran trade marine with anything here?  Arbiter's maybe a little interesting, assuming no marine doesn't just make them lose to cheese vs P.  They can go mech against Zerg, so they aren't completely forefitting that matchup.  Maybe also DT--getting rid of that would make the protoss matchup way more comfortable, and maybe there's some kind of Valkyrie DT build against zerg.

So...I think most of these are okay, but interest in trading for the Lurker is actually kinda low.  Are any of the weird options like Observer, Shuttle, worth trading for Lurker?  Observer would be funny, cause toss would not need detection vs Zerg, and would probably win the matchup.  Would just lose against terran, though.  Shuttle...obviously also bad against Terran, and limits their options against zerg.

Would Zerg trade lurker for any of the C-tier options?  Medic, but that's a degenerate answer.  If we assume medic only works on the two lowest tier units like zerglings and hydras then probably not.  Corsair...maybe, actually, turn protoss into a free win, and they would probably actually build corsairs against Terran.  Corsairs are immune to irradiate, Science Vessels are large with 1 armour, so they take basically full damage from sairs.  They wouldn't trade for archons.  Archons would be okay against zealots, but so are lurkers.  And they are a lot worse against terran bio.  They can't be irradiated, but they can be EMP'd so it's not like you're excited about them as some kind of Vessel counter.  So...technically two yesses from zerg, but they are both very meta (medic getting to heal all the biological zerg units.  Corsairs being of interest just because of being immune to irradiate; if corsairs become biological in the trade then no, that's awful vs vessels).  I think Archon might be lower than C-tier, though.  Okay, so back to medic, let's say we go with the restriction of only healing the two lowest tier units, hydras and zerglings.  Taking away medic from terran still puts terran on mech, which means you can go hydra medic.  That might actually be good.  Losing a later game option in lurkers is unfortunate, but hydra/medic might make for even stronger hydra busts.

OK, unexpected, but Lurker to C tier.

---

B: Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

---

Hm, Drone might be a little out of place now.  Not being able to attack or scout with a drone or make buildings to sim city...obviously hurts for defending allins, but probably hurts less than being unable to build Hydras or Lurkers.

Archon was also noted as maybe out of place.  Is there anyone who actually wants to trade for Archon?  Not lurker, not hydra, medic...maybe?  Terran's a bit desperate for a melee unit.  Archons are a fat meatshield they could put in front of tanks who can eat a mine hit and still be ok, and AoE some melee units coming in.  But...that is the gas of three siege tanks, even if you are massing siege tanks that's kind-of a tough sell.  It's also a bit meta, cause Terran has Science Vessels, so they don't need to worry about Archons being blank in one matchup.  Archons to D.

Hydra...would zerg trade Hydra for Corsair?  I guess yeah, if corsairs are still mechanical, nice to have vs T where they weren't using hydras anyway, and taking corsair away from P just means they win.

I guess...here's the real test, would Protoss trade Corsair for anything here?  Not any of the zerg units that's for sure--they'd like to get rid of Hydras, but not at the cost of corsairs.  Getting rid of Lurkers is not worth corsairs to them.  But maybe Medic is a little bit interesting.  Zealot Medic is genuinely pretty scary (and they're actually biological, so I've seen that in game).  If the rule on medics is that they heal the two lowest tier units, that would mean Zealots and dragoons.  So...taking medic they would just roll Terran.  Is the zerg matchup doable?  They basically need to break or massively threaten zerg before mutas, but...Zealot Medic might be able to do that?  So maybe there's one trade Protos might be willing to make?

Is anyone in B-tier looking to trade for Corsair?  I don't think so at this point.  Guess Corsair can stay in C-tier.

---

C: Corsair, Medic, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen, Archon, Dark Archon

---

Alright, is anyone in D willing to trade for Archon?  Yes, absolutely, Terran would trade Firebat in a heartbeat.

Is anyone looking to trade for Wraith?  Protoss might trade Archon.  Just having a unit that shoots down and is better than Scout.

Is anyone looking to trade for carrier?  Zerg would consider trading Ultralisk, unless carriers become biological and thus vulnerable to irradiate, then probably not.  Terran might trade Wraith or Firebat just to not need to worry about playing against Carrier.

Is anyone looking to trade for ultralisk?  Yeah, it's a melee unit, Terran would trade Wraith or Firebat probably.

Is anyone willing to trade for queen?  Maybe Protoss trades Archon--observers struggle to keep vision, but Parasite can, and just a unit that can kill tanks for free is pretty good.

Is anyone willing to trade for Firebat?  Ehh...man, firebats are pretty bad, that's a tough sell, but it's an earlygame unit, maybe protoss is willing to part with Archon so that they can do some Zealot Firebat rush against zerg.  As long as the Zealots body block for the firebats, that can kill like...unlimited zerglings.

Is anyone willing to trade for Dark Archon?  Zerg might be.  Maelstrom is a middle finger to terran bio.  Feedback looks interesting against vessels--range 10, so theoretically should beat EMP.  Maelstrom might even be worth considering against zealot heavy protoss builds, but mostly a tech against terran.  Trading queen or ultra.  Terran might be interested too--might be willing to sac Wraith or Firebat.  Maelstrom might help against Zealots, honestly, and has potential against zerg.

Are there any D-tier units that should move up?  Any C-tier units that would trade with D-tier units?  Maybe Lurker could think about trading with Dark Archon, but that's really meta (Zerg uses Dark Archon way better than Toss does).  If Terran felt okay about mech zerg every game, they could trade Medics for Carriers, mostly to remove Carrier as a protoss option.  I think that might hurt T against Zerg more than it hurts P against Terran, though.

OK, so D-tier is honestly looking ok.

---

Full list at the moment:

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel, Vulture

A: Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver, SCV

B: Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen, Archon, Dark Archon

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on June 23, 2021, 06:14:24 PM
I'll just add that there was an ASL match a month or two ago where in PvZ the Protoss player unironically built a Scout first (before the usual Corsairs to follow it up).  I'm not 100% sure what mindhack was going on here, but it was used for initial worker harass into DTs, similar to the more famous Corsair / DT combo.  Basically the 'toss player felt that being able to annoy workers was worth the loss in speed / minerals vs. a Corsair, and he threw the Z player sufficiently off their game that a follow up Dropship w/ DTs finished the game.  The Z player chose to build a Spore Colony at their natural to deal with flyer harass rather than a Spire + Scourge, which meant moving their overlords over to the nat expand (which was a bit farther away than on most maps, I want to say), which meant not having Overlords for DT defense at their main for too long.  I think the Z player had gone Hydras to explain where the gas went rather than Scourge?  And that they didn't Spore their main because they thought Hydras would suffice for scaring off the Scout?  Now I'm curious to go dig that game up...

Edit: Also will endorse moving Marine from C->B, Marines are still handy for the Terran not dying in TvP before a Factory army can come up.  I want to say that there was another ASL game where the Protoss player went for Carriers (to hose heavy-Siege Tank armies), the T player scouted this but the P player didn't seem to realize their cunning plan was known, and the T player dropped like 7 rax and went Marine / Medic and won easily.  That was a weird case of course, but bio can get at least SOME work done in that matchup.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 24, 2021, 03:43:03 PM
I did see the scout game.  From what Tastetosis were saying it was the first time they had seen a scout on a non-island map since they returned to casting BW.  Think it was round of 16, most recent season, and the Zerg was Queen (the previous season's ASL champion).  (There was also a scout built on Inner Coven, but that's a pseudo island map.  Scout's air to air is okay).  F-tier units do come up occasionally, pretty sure I've also seen devourers.

I'm not familiar with the game where marine/medic were built against carrier.  Know what season/round that was built in?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 25, 2021, 08:59:54 AM
So someone suggested to me that Zealots might be S tier.  With Zerglings in an SS tier, I think this could make sense.

Trading Vultures for Zealots was the interesting one.  I had thought about that before, and concluded "Toss would beat zerg with Corsair Vulture, and gain tons of map control against terran".   The interesting X factor here is that Terran would also beat Zerg, perhaps even more than toss would.  Vultures aren't a big deal against zerg, zealots are, and zealots would make great meatshields for bio.

As for who would win between toss and terran if they swap vultures and zealots, I'm starting to think that's a bit more ambiguous.  Tank Zealot is very immobile compared to goon vulture, but Vulture Goon can't actually fight siege tanks with zealots in front; like they will just lose.

Like...Vulture is probably still looking a bit stronger here, but it's close.

The other thing I've been trying to work out is what exactly happens if Terran trades tanks for zealots.  Trading tanks is pretty sacriligeous but...I think the zerg matchup for sure gets better for T.  Bio with zealots in front just...should beat zerg, and terran can play without tanks vs zerg. 

TvP would be a clusterfuck.  Like Zealots can counter siege tanks in the open, but still want some backup, and neither marines nor goliaths are as good as dragoons would be paired with zealots.  Vultures still ensure total map control.  What even would be Terran's unit composition here?  Zealot Vulture Wraith using wraiths to snipe observers and cloak?  Would corsairs become a problem?  Would Goliaths become the answer to corsairs?  I think Protoss lategame is basically unbeatable (Siege Tank Arbiter, maybe with carriers).  But can they get there?  They have no mineral sink other than cannons, but that does fit the game plan.  Terran options for breaking a base with siege tanks and cannons would be like...send zealots at it, or drop zealots out of dropships.  Reavers would also become a problem.  Mines can be placed in common Reaver drop locations, but no tanks to fight reavers is a huge problem, and zealots are no compensation.  Mmm...think Terran probably loses this despite the lack of mineral dump.

PvZ...Protoss would lose zealots, which is a huge loss, and gain Siege Tanks, which...aren't necessarily better than Reavers vs Zerg.  Protoss gets worse against mutas cause zealots can at least threaten to kill before mutas, and I'm not even convinced they get better against hydra busts.  Obviously they pick up a new tool in Siege Tanks, which might be a better option than high  templar, but they also lose the ability to make zealots, which were often made in large numbers during hydra busts.

Surprisngly enough, trading Tank for Zealot kinda makes zealot look like the better unit, at least in two of the matchups.  Third one maybe unwinnable.

Other trades...Zerg isn't willing to trade mutas for Zealots, cause they'd just lose to protoss mutas.  But Defilers?  Zerg might trade Defilers for Zealots.  Protoss match becomes way easier for zerg.  Terran match...Zealots can fill a similar role to ultras, not amazing units, but soak a lot of hits.  But do so before hive tech at no gas cost.  Is that enough to make up for the lack of defilers in the lategame?  Honestly, it might be.  Zerg can make queens as their fallback spellcaster, and it should be ok vs terran ground.  The PvT match...pure dragoon is okay for a while vs T (your first control group or two is supposed to be dragoons) but the lack of zealots will for sure hurt.  Dark Swarm will help, though.  Not great vs tanks cause it doesn't stop everything, but probably still good enough to be worth building.  Really nice in a recall too, since vultures and unsieged tanks can't do anything against a dark swarm.

Yeah, definitely some unclear ambiguity, not really obvious if these trades are good, which might mean zealot belongs on this tier.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on June 25, 2021, 09:50:44 PM
OK, on the PvT matchup for swapping Zealot and Tank...I think I overlooked something here--Terran just won't have a very good counter to dragoons.  Zealots can be kited, vultures struggle to finish off dragoons due to concussive damage, other terran options like wraiths and goliaths are going to be fairly cost-inefficient.  I was focusing a bit too much on "what can protoss do with siege tanks?" and not enough on "what if protoss just ignores their new tech tree and just makes dragoons?"
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 09, 2021, 04:58:19 AM
So tasteless posted his version of tier list:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSoYU837upM

Some funny stuff for sure here.  (He initially had vultures a tier above siege tanks, which is a very protoss point of view).

But the interesting thing that this is getting me to think about is...

Scourge vs Goliaths:

So...these aren't identical, but they do fill some somewhat parallel roles.

ZvZ: If one player has scourge swapped with goliaths...well goliaths are interesting.  Goliaths, once they get the charon boosters upgrade, are a lot better against mutalisks, cause they have 8 range, they can really punish mutalisks that fly back and forth.  They also have 1 armour, which is pretty good against mutalisk glaives (for the same reason that carapace upgrades are good against muta glaives).  They are also better than hydras against the one ground unit used in this matchup (zerglings; they deal full damage to them, while hydras deal half damage to zerglings, and again 1 armour, pretty nice against zerglings in particular).  Worse against other zerg ground units, but what's the opponent gonna do, build hydras?  LOL, yeah, easy to shred with lings and mutas.

One concern I had was movement speed, but goliaths are better than I thought; faster than unupgraded hydras, faster than unstimmed marines.  A little slower than dragoons.  If there's a reason why a scourge player would be better than a goliath player in this matchup, this is probably the big one--just map control and mobility.  But I feel like the goliath player would actually come out ahead.  Diving on goliaths with mutas is never free, but when the opponent also has mutas it's really not free, and basically requires you to commit.

Maybe slight lean goliaths here.

ZvT: Here the trade looks pretty miserable.  Goliaths are a poor substitute for scourge at taking out science vessels.  If the terran also picks up scourge, I think that would have implications in the matchup too--could really punish mutas for diving deep against turrets.  And there's probably some really nasty rushes where the terran would scourge a couple overlords just to supply block them right as the terran moves out.

Scourge look more valuable.

TvP: So there's ups and downs here.  The upside is that scourge just completely clamp down on arbiters.  Protoss will never get a recall off against a teran with scourge, and keeping arbiters alive becomes way harder.  Arbiters probably just disappear from the matchup.

But the downside is carriers.  Granted, scourge can kill a carrier.  In fact, carriers in small numbers, scourge probably handle that better than goliaths do.  Carriers can use cliffs to run from goliaths.  The problem comes from corsairs.  If you get enough corsairs, zero scourge will ever connect with a carrier.  And then you're stuck on like...marines?  Valkyries?  I believe on paper Valkyries do counter corsairs due to having 2 defence, but man, I don't think they beat them all that hard.

But can a protoss actually stay alive that long?  Long enough to get a critical mass of corsairs and carriers?  Ehh...not sure.  If it's just scourge against low numbers of carriers or corsairs, scourge will do fine.  But if protoss can turtle enough to get the good army out, might be goliaths are better.

TvT: My immediate kneejerk is that scourge are better here.  A relatively small number of patrolling scourge can be a huge problem for dropships.  Scourge are faster than dropships.

Scourge are not faster than wraiths, so maybe wraiths become a problem...but...ehhh, I doubt it.  For one thing, I don't think wraiths moving shot all that well, so while they could run from scourge, they wouldn't actually kill them.  For another thing, terran has a lot of other things that are pretty good against wraiths like missile turrets and valkyries, so there's ways to shoo away wraiths even if the opponent just constantly keeps moving to avoid scourge.

And in the end, I think one side making it almost impossible for the other side to use dropships is just...such a symmetry breaker in TvT.

ZvP: So...immediately I'm struck by how goliaths are better than hydras at hitting corsairs, and also better at punishing shuttles that are holding reavers.  They also technically survive a storm from high templar, and are...maybe a little better against Zealots, not sure.  (They're definitely better against zerglings, but protoss units are weird because protoss shields are weird).  Goliaths are obviously worse than hydras against dragoons, of course, so you wouldn't want a strictly goliath army.

Scourge, so there's a couple places they're good.

One is a mutalisk all in, where you build an unexpected number of mutas and scourge, and use the combination of both to kill the corsairs and then win because you have mutas and the protoss doesn't have corsairs.

One is as a zoning tool, to harass with mutas while placing scourge in between the corsairs and the mutas, ready to punish corsairs if they fly past.  That strategy is probably dead--and while goliaths could do this, honestly speed hydras are probably better cause they move faster, but both are bad cause neither fly.

One is as part of a lurker contain, to hit any observer that gets too close with a scourge.  Goliaths can zone out observers pretty well, but...not actually that well.  Six shots to kill an observer.  Observer sight even without upgrades is longer than goliath range.  And also, protoss to beat lurker contains makes dragoons, which happen to be excellent into Goliaths--like I don't think you want to stick the goliaths in front of the lurkers, dragoons will take free shots.

And then there's the mystery option, which is what arbiters do to zerg when zerg litreally can't stop them.  And like...yeah, probably fuck them up real bad TBH.

So...scourge seem better here.

---

Conclusions

Seems pretty close overall, goliaths better in a couple matchups, scourge better in a couple matchups, which probably mean these two belong on the same tier?   Which would be around B-tier on Artosis and Tasteless lists.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 10, 2021, 01:53:30 AM
Welp, did a little unit testing, and seems like I was misled to when I was being taught starcraft back in 2006 or whatever.

Valkyries are not cost effective against corsairs.  At least not if the two of them just A-move into each other.  (3 corsairs beat 2 valkyries.  6 corsairs beat 4 valkyries).  Admitedly I'm not testing on remastered, but I don't think I should be hitting the sprite limit at 4 vaklyries with almost nothing else on the map.

The argument for valkyries beating corsairs went as follows: valkyries have 2 armour, and corsairs attack quickly with 5 attack, so that gets reduced to 3 attack. 

And that's...not wrong, but Valkyries also cost 50% more, for a very small bump in damage (15 dps -> 18 dps), and a very small bump in HP (180 vs 200), so literally that 2 defence needs to do basically all the heavy lifting in justifying the 50% price hike.

Oh also, corsairs are medium, so they take 75% damage from valkyrie shots (to their hull, protoss shields take full damage from everything) and also they have 1 defence of their own (valkyries do 6 damage per hit, so they're equally kinda vulnerable to defence).  So like...their hull damage is getting around the same reduction as the valkyrie hull damage.  Only their shields get melted.

I believe valkyries have larger AoE splash than corsairs, but at least the units attack moving towards each other that didn't matter enough.

So uh, yeah, building valkyries to counter corsair/carrier looking even less viable as a counter.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2021, 03:09:57 AM
May as well compare the third actually good anti air unit to goliaths/scourge, namely the corsair.

Swapping corsair and scourge...

ZvZ -- the Zerg with corsairs wins.

ZvP -- now protoss don't have corsairs, and against mutas, scourge are a poor substitute.

TvP -- Scourge have got to be at least a little better.  Not a ton of things to scourge down admitedly, but maybe a few science vessels and dropships.  Relatively minor difference, though.

PvP -- Scourge wins--corsairs aren't made in PvP, but observers and shuttles are, and scourge are good against them.

ZvT -- So...my assumption is that if you have an overall weakness shared by every unit you have, that any units you gain are going to share that weakness, namely corsairs as zerg units would be biological, so you couldn't just make a control group of 12 of them and fly around immune to irradiate, D-webbing marines while you killed all the science vessels.  With that assumption in place, yeah, Scourge are better.  If they get to be the one zerg unit immune to irradiate...hmm...corsairs might be better; ridiculous zoning tool against vessels if nothing else.

So scourge are ahead 3 matchups to 2, although TvP the impact is going to be really minor, and the ZvT matchup being scourge favoured relies on zerg corsairs being biological.

swapping goliaths and corsairs

TvT: This isn't super straightforward, but I've got to feel the player with Goliaths is going to beat the player with Corsairs, cause Goliaths can kill Corsairs.  But it's not super simple.  Corsairs are faster than dropships and can chase them down and kill them, that's a big deal.  Corsairs can disruption web tanks, that's a big deal too.  Corsairs are better at killing wraiths, although wraiths deal more damage back to corsairs than they do back to Goliaths.  But even with all these advantages, I think the straightforward "Goliaths kill Corsairs" is the right way to think about this.  Goliaths are also able to deal damage to tanks and vultures, which is not nothing.  Goliaths are better against battlecruisers, which sometimes come up in TvT.

TvP: Goliaths win, or rather the lack of goliaths for terran is crippling (not that protoss will actually make goliaths).  Corsairs actually get countered by carriers, so that's not good.

ZvP: Corsairs have got to be more important here.  As terrans will tell you, Goliaths can still get overwhelmed by a muta allin.  And Goliaths don't serve much of a purpose against anything besides mutas.

PvP: I really don't think it matters.  Maybe you would mix in one or two goliaths in your dragoon army for the longer range to zone out shuttles?  I guess that's more than Corsairs have going for them in this matchup, but not by much.  And you'd have to separately get the upgrade for dragoon range and goliath range so even that seems a bit suspect.  Matchup just seems like a wash.

ZvT: Uh, yeah, Terran will take Corsairs.  Terran rarely builds goliaths against zerg, and would make corsairs like...every game.  Corsair Vulture shreds everything until lurkers show up, can't even get detection for spider mines.

So...that's a 2-2, another very close comparison.

Yeah, ok, maybe all three of corsairs/scourge/goliath belong on the same tier.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2021, 04:08:52 AM
A few fun miscellaneous calculations:

Even if corsairs didn't have splash damage, they would still be (fractionally) cost effective against scouts.

Scouts are cost effective against wraiths (ignoring all the stuff about wraiths cloaking and having higher range and faster movement and better ground damage).

Mutalisks are complicated cause of glaive bounces.  (Look pretty close to even with scouts on paper, but I didn't go in-depth on the implications of glaive bounces; scouts might be ahead theoretically, not that you'll ever see that matchup).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2021, 06:21:23 AM
Ok, let's do marine clones.

Some easy ones:

swapping marine with dragoon:

TvT: dragoon wins.

PvT: dragoon wins

PvZ: Kinda close, not sure.  Potential for some strong rushes, marines are better than dragoons against hydras on paper, marines are better than dragoons against mutas.  Dragoons weren't really used for either of those, though, and I don't know if marines are enough better to matter.  Buuuut lurkers sound like actually a problem; dragoons were the way to deal with those.  Eh, file this under tossup for the moment.

TvZ: marines win.

PvP: dragoons win.

Pretty clear 3-1 (dragoons expected to be better; no surprise there).

swapping hydralisk with dragoon

ZvZ: changes nothing

ZvT: Dragoons probably win.  Some interesting rush/harassment builds open up.  1 extra range and all that.

ZvP: Complicated.  Like...hydras are a semi rock-paper-scissors counter to dragoons, so maybe that stops zerg from just massing goons, but goons are better against reavers, better against storm, worse against corsairs so that's a concern.  hydras are a lot worse against lurkers and honestly zerglings if the zerglings can reach them.  Likely worse against mutas.  Hydras need a speed upgrade to be faster than zealots, goons don't; a single goon microed can be a headache for zealots super early.  Call this a tossup, not sure.

PvP: I think Dragoons win any macro game, cause dragoon reaver beats hydra reaver.  Some potential for earlygame hydra busts, granted.

PvT: Dragoons win.

So yeah, 3-1-0 on this one.

swapping goliath with dragoon

PvT: So...a little complicated.  If protoss gets to carriers, it's a problem for the terran.  I think terran flattens them before this happens, though.  No goon pressure.  Goons beat goliaths, vultures beat zealots, so the mobile ground army of terran just smashes the one of protoss.  Goliaths are also a lot worse against siege tanks than goons (slightly better against vultures, at least).  Think this goes to dragoons?

PvP: Dragoons win

PvZ: Mmm...so...dragoons are better against hydras, goliaths are better against zerglings, dragoons are better against lurkers, goliaths are better against mutas.  Eh, no dragoons win.  Protoss doesn't have trouble making zerg switch off of zerglings or mutas, and isn't going to use goliaths to achieve that goal anyway.

ZvT: Well...the main place I could see dragoons being used are against lurkers (instead of using tanks) and they'd presumably build out of barracks and not require a factory with an addon, and they'd benefit from E-bay upgrades presumably, and not be so vulnerable to mutas, so uh yeah, all of that sounds like incentive enough to build them over tanks.  Also, way better than marines against ultralisks.  Yeah, I think this is a comfy dragoon win.

TvT: Probably another dragoon win.  Maybe they're a little worse against vultures and dropships, but better against tanks and goliaths, and the terran with dragoons can put on a lot of pressure early on.  I guess the one complication would be that they are barracks units, so don't share upgrades with tanks and vultures.  But the upside of your barracks being more than a tech stepping stone and actually producing units you want in the matchup should counteract that--basically a free production building at the start of the game, and one that makes units that counter vultures (whereas normally you need an armory or a machine shop after making a factory to counter vultures).

So that's a 5-0 to dragoons, although a number of these are not complete blowouts.

---

So more or less as expected, dragoons are a tier above the others.

Marines vs Hydras

TvZ: Marines win.  (Hydras are pathetic against zerglings and mutas).

ZvZ: Marines win.  (Ability to kill scouting overlords after spawning pool finishes.  Ability to make non-gas units that help fight mutas).

TvP: I'm...not sure.  The initial zealot walk across the map will do better against a slow hydra than two marines.  But hydras would be a barracks unit that would remain relevant in the matchup for quite a bit longer, so there's maybe a strong early rush Terran would pick up.  Don't think it matters in a longer macro game, vultures are a lot better than hydras (like...literally same damage, same HP, same size category, but on a cheaper unit that can also lay mines and is fast). Answer hazy, maybe very mild lean hydra.

TvT: Ultimately not very important.  Hydras are a little better than marines against vultures and goliaths, so maybe lean hydra, but you're not building the unit long term.

ZvP: So...assuming marines build out of spawning pools, they do a bunch here.  Marine rushes would hit a bit earlier than hydra rushes, and kill buildings a little faster relative to the army cost invested.  Protosses who walk zealots across the map and hide them behind mineral patches, marines can be ready way earlier than hydras if they're a spawning pool unit.  Better at killing corsairs.  But marines are worse if they need to stand and take hits (killing photon cannons or dragoons, for example).  Hydras after speed upgrade can kite zealots, marines can't unless they stim.  And the real killer is that marines are substantially worse against reavers and psi storm.  So...probably overall hydras?

Seems even-ish actually.  2 marine, 1 hydra, 2 where it's not a big deal but very mild lean towards hydra.

Golaith vs Marine

lol, same race.

Guess it's worth noting Goliath is mostly important PvT and TvT, while marine is mostly important ZvT.  Used in the first 5 minutes to guard agaisnt rushes do a few cheese builds in PvT and TvT, but only because it's the only unit available.

Goliath vs Hydra

PvT: Goliath wins (can't stop carriers with hydras, and vultures are better against gateway armies).

TvT: Goliaths better against vultures, dropships, wraiths.  Hydras better against enemy Goliaths, siege tanks.  Also, hydras here would logically require academy (or some kind of "hydra den" equivalent), and Marine would still be the base unit, so the sensible thing would be to rush factory and maybe never build a hydra till you need antiair.  Comfy Goliath I think?

TvZ: Maybe lean hydra?  Pretty soft lean, but it's a barracks unit, and one which is probably a little better than marines against ultras and lurkers.

ZvP: The logical place for goliaths is as a lair tech unit (requires a factory and an armory normally, so it's tier 2 tech).  And...the allin hydra bust doesn't get lair--although...maybe that's not so bad, cause hydras require two expensive upgrades to not suck, and frankly Lair is faster and cheaper, and goliaths are functional against ground without upgrades (nearly as fast as speed hydras, 5 range out of the box).  And...getting a free lair out of the deal seems pretty nice.  Goliaths are worse against cannons, dragoons, probably slightly better against zealots, definitely better against corsairs and observers and shuttles.  Less vulnerable to dying to storm.  Hmm...I was thinking this would be a slam dunk for hydras.  Still think it's a lean hydra--there isn't a really clear counter to dragoon other than zerglings, but large enough dragoon groups would make that impractical.

ZvZ: Goliath.  Better against zerglings, better against mutas, don't even need to give up scourge for it this time, so just a no brainer.

3-2 goliath, but the hydra wins were pretty soft wins, so feels a bit more like 3-1.

---

OK, so, overall this feels like

Dragoon

(tier gap)

Goliath

(tier gap)

Marine, Hydra

(Probably something like A tier Dragoon, B tier Goliath, C tier Marine and Hydra?)

Not quite what I was expecting (thought Marine would be more cleanly in the same tier as goliath, but hydra is looking better than marine against large units, protoss shields, and less vulnerable to AoE like siege tanks, reavers, storm, as well as concussive damage from vultures.  Carves out more wins than I expected).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2021, 09:44:30 PM
So...thinking on it, I think I'm just going to combine medic/marine.  Medics feel more like an upgrade to marines that allow them to actually stim.  And then furthermore I would assume medics would only heal marines even if traded (so I'm not going to complicate things with combos like medic zealot or medic lurker, which are scary combos I've seen in multiplayer games--none of that, even if traded, medics only heal marines).

I...don't actually think this changes very much.  Maybe in the marine trade with hydras specifically for the PvZ matchup this tips things enough more towards marines (now they can stim to properly kite slow zealots, and are less scared of busting through photon cannons.  Concerns about dying to psi storm and reavers are still an issue, though).  Might just have enough pressure, though.  Why would this work for zerg when terran bio doesn't beat protoss for terran?  Getting Zerglings inside their base.  The existence of Mutalisks, and the fact that protoss needs to blind tech corsairs every game.  Both of these make marine busts a lot more scary

So...probably flip that one from advantage hydra to...unsure.

That said, is that enough to bump marine/medic up to goliath tier?  Well...no:

I think I underestimated hydra/vulture pushes TvP.  My initial reaction is "terran wouldn't build hydras cause vultures are basically just generally better against protoss ground armies" which is still largely true.   But hydras can bust down buildings, when normally a few pylons is enough to just stop a roaming vulture army.  Hydra Vulture actually sounds like a nightmare for protoss.  Both good at stripping off the shields of either dragoons or zealots; vultures finish off zealots, hydras finish off dragoons.  And you might be thinking "well can't siege tanks do the role of hydras in that army?" and...yes but with vulnerabilities; siege tanks can be caught unsieged.  Siege tanks are vulnerable to shuttles dropping zealots on them.  A hydra vulture army moving together across the map...doesn't have those vulnerabilities.  It has other vulnerabilities (storm, reavers) so I don't think terran would forever skip siege tanks or anything, but protoss would need to prepare and scout for a new potential rush.

Alright, so at the moment with just the stuff I've been thinking about lately, looks like this:

(A tier?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra

Sort-of feeling weird about Corsair above Marine+Medic, so let's look at that.

Corsair vs Marine+Medic

PvZ: probably Corsairs.  Die to mutas otherwise.

PvP: probably doesn't matter outside of harassing early wallins maybe a marine gets made.

PvT: assuming that there's some kind of replacement so that terran still has a way to stay alive in the first 2 minutes (maybe a no rush 2, or firebat becomes their first unit and costs only minerals) this would be a pretty uneventful swap.  Protoss doesn't want to make marines against terran.  Terran doesn't have much reason to make corsairs against protoss (wraiths are actually slightly faster at killing single shuttles in the event of a reaver drop; Corsairs are just a lot more tanky than wraiths).  I guess mass wraiths might be a real build if there's no threat of corsairs? snipe observers and cloak?  At very least could probably kill probes and force protoss to stay home with dragoons and build lots of cannons.  Not sure if that would be a thing, I'll just write this off as even.

ZvT: Corsairs put zerg off of mutas and detection.  Vultures take care of the rest.

TvT: Again, if some allowances giving terran an early unit like making firebat not require an academy so that they don't die by minute 2...yeah, this is an easy Corsair.  Terrans barely use marines in this matchup, but already sometimes use valkyries, and Corsairs are better vaklyries that can cast a spell to turn off enemy siege tanks, and can moving shot chase down dropships.

Uh, yep, ok, fine, Corsairs above Marine/Medic.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 13, 2021, 05:55:24 AM
Started to think about vultures.

Did a bit of in-game testing, and ignoring production concerns and needing more supply depots, just focusing on cost, yeah, vultures are about even with hydralisks.  4 vultures will pretty consistently beat 3 hydras, but higher numbers are a bit more of a tossup.

But, and I was a little surprised by this, apparenlty vultures are also about even with dragoons doing the same kind of tests (3 dragoons cost about the same as 7 vultures, and...it's pretty close; if they attack each other, sometimes vultures scrape a victory sometimes dragoons scrape a victory).

So you know, that's interesting.

Probably worth thinking about why that is.

Vultures kill hydras in 8 hits (20 damage, cut in half).  I guess probably 9 hits cause hydras will regen 1 HP mid fight; only really applies until +1 vehicle weapons.

Vultures kill dragoon shields in...4 hits (20 damage to shields) and then dragoon bodies in 21 hits, for a total of 25.

Hm, yeah, that ought to be a harder matchup by raw numbers (3x the durability usually corresponds to about 2x the price).  Might just be dragoon pathfinding (the unit tester I was using basically just a-moves the units towards each other).

---

Vulture vs Dragoon swap

TvT: My kneejerk is dragoon favoured.  Early dragoons (built out of barracks) would counter early vultures, and would basically force the enemy terran into one early build (siege mode) and since goons hit air, really shuts down a ton of surprise builds like wraiths.  (Whereas the goon player, knowing their opponent has to open up siege, and will suffer to goon harass, is really wide open, could go for anything).  But...it's not completely one-sided here.  Spider Mines are useful vision in TvT, can give you an idea of when enemy tanks might be caught unsieged.  TvT can stall out in a split map situation, where the geysers mine out, and eventually both players go back to building vultures; the dragoon player would be stuck on marines for their mineral dump unit, and just lose in that situation.  So...maybe not so one-sided.  But still, I think dragoon being a good anti-vulture unit, and a better option than terran has as an anti siege tank unit, and a good harass terran early unit, I think make this a lean towards dragoon.

TvP: Um.  Well, with vulture gone, have to assume zealots will be a huge problem for terran, no unit that explicitly counters them at all.  But...still, PvP matches usually settle into mass dragoon at some point, so dragoons can beat zealots.  And...an almost pure dragoon army isn't really countered by vultures, though as the tests above show, vultures do alright against dragoons.  Does terran make tanks knowing that tons of zealots are coming, or just stick to dragoons?  What about reaver drops?  One of the things terran's supposed to do against reaver drops is lay spider mines in likely reaver drop locations.  That's gone now, so it should be more like PvP, where Terran basically can't do shit against Reavers.  What about Dark Templar?  Mines were a pretty good counter to those.  Vultures were good at actually being mobile and dealt their full damage to DTs, so those are way more dangerous.  What about sending an early dragoon across the map to protoss?  Protoss has to...cannon or just chase it with zealots; maybe try to get a surround by having the probes help the zealots?  Umm...wow, this match seems incredibly unstable, and I'm not sure who wins.  Maybe slight lean Vulture cause of all the scary options that will be way harder to manage like reavers and DTs?  Not sure.

TvZ: Slight lean Dragoon I guess.  Barracks unit that does a lot better than marines against ultras and lurkers.  Vultures rarely made in the matchup.  Probably the lowest impact match, though.

PvP: Huh.  Well.  Dragoon army is a little bit better in a straight up fight.  Vultures can lay mines in reaver drop locations, but not attack air so ths shuttles will never die.  Getting mines also gives you insurance against DTs.  Vulture drops really threaten to kill a ton of probes.  If the vulture player can stop the other player from marching across the map with Dragoons early before they get into all their tech they win.  But I don't know if they can.  Once again, not sure.

PvZ: Vulture I think.  Corsair Vulture still sounds terrifying for zerg to deal with.  Detection for mines will be hard as the corsairs kill them.  The threat of mutas is the main thing that prevents terran from busting out early vultures.  Vulture drops or runarounds killing lots of drones would be quite scary--zerg drone counts tend to be very low, and if zerg's army is not in their base, vultures can fight a few stray zerglings or hydras.  And...dragoons are not the most impactful unit in the matchup.  Nice against lurkers, but those tend to show up if the game goes longer.

---

OK, this seems reasonably even?  A lot of unsures or slight leans.  Probably puts Vulture in a similar category to dragoon (unexpected; would have thought Vulture would be cleanly ahead).  Honestly, maybe there's a flaw in this methodology, by adding in the two mirror matches, I end up doing three matchups where I  need to think about dragoon vs vulture (TvT, TvP and PvP), which puts a lot of emphasis on the rock-paper-scissors mechanism of how Dragoons mechanically have the rock paper scisssors damage reduction against vultures (and still barely beat them in a fight).

The matchups where vulture/goon don't come up are TvZ (mild goon lean but not because many goons would be built, only because vultures are almost never built) and one pretty strong vulture lean (PvZ, where corsairs are good enough against mutas to allow the building of vultures against zerg).  So I mean, one of those is a stronger lean than the other, but still not a super clearcut win.

Guess Vulture can live in the same tier as Dragoon for now, but I would like to revisit this when we have more stuff:

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 13, 2021, 06:40:44 AM
OK well, moving on to the next ranged ground unit...the lurker.

Lurkers are a little funny, cause if you just take their raw stats and stick them into a spreadsheet, they're complete garbage.  Like...a lurker would lose 1v1 to a Goliath.  (Even though Goliath specializes in anti-air and costs about half what a lurker does).

But Lurkers do a few things.

1. Cloak while attacking.
2. Splash.  This mostly matters against marines cause even the smallest amount of splash is scary to them, but also matters against melee units like zealots or zerglings coming in one by one.
3. Their attack is almost more like a spell, which has a bunch of implications.  Doesn't miss 50% of the time when attacking uphill.  Doesn't miss under dark swarm.
4. They make attacking up a ramp very hard, much like placing photon cannons at the top of a ramp.  Lurker eggs can also basically be an invincible wall on a ramp for a short period of time.

Kneejerking not super high for them, though; let's compare to marines maybe?

Lurker vs Marine

TvZ: Marine win.  Lurkers would be a very nice anti-zergling tool, but obviously terran gets pigeonholed into mech.  And usually mass zergling isn't the response to mech.  Don't think you want lurkers against hydras.  Mutas can be made against mech, and you really don't want lurkers against those either.

ZvZ: Marine win.  Pure mineral dump option that can shoot mutas vs gas heavy thing that can't shoot mutas.

TvT: I don't think it matters very much in TvT.  Lurkers seem like garbage in the matchup, don't think you make them outside of maybe a cheese that prays your opponent didn't get detection.  Marines are mostly skipped over too.

PvT: Assuming that terran gets some replacement for their first unit (maybe firebat becomes first unit) so they don't die to the first gateway unit walking across the map...there's a real argument for lurker.  It really punishes zealots that try to dive on top of tanks.  It doesn't splash friendly units.  You could burrow lurkers underneath tanks.  Lots of possibilities.

ZvP: busting protoss with ranged units could start a little earlier, with higher DPS per cost units (marines mixed in with hydras).  But if the protoss doesn't die, zerg probably switches into entirely hydras anyway (less vulnerable to storm/reavers).  And eventually after that would probably want lurkers.  Depends how much you think marines add to the zerg hydra bust, vs how much you think midgame/lategame zerg really needs to tech into lurker contains vs just...making more hydras.  Maybe a year ago, I might have said getting to Lurkers is needed, but the trend in high level pro games seems to involve sticking on hydras for a surprisingly long time.  Um...maybe slight lean lurker?  Not sure.

So...2-1 or 2-2.

Eh, don't want to think too hard about whether lurkers are lower tier than hydras.  Like...I guess there is a case for it.  All three matchups can be reasonably played without lurker (there's an increasingly popular ZvT build that skips lurker and goes straight to ultras).  ZvP can't be played without hydras.  Lurker below hydra would go against decades old wisdom, though.  I'll stick em on the same tier for now.

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 13, 2021, 07:02:58 AM
Guess it's time to look at the siege tank.

For reference, Siege Tanks cost about the same as a lurker, but with about double the DPS, double the range, and more HP.  Not completely without downsides.  They don't cloak, do splash friendly units, and can't hit enemies in melee range unless they unsiege (minimum range).  But the 12 range and good stats on top of that are just so scary.

Same race units like the vulture are a bit harder to compare, so it's only got the dragoon to be compared to.  I...expect a stomp.

Siege Tank vs Dragoon

TvT: Tank wins.  Terran doesn't even have a zealot type unit to fight back.

TvP: Tank wins.  (Zealot siege tank has actually come up in pro games when dark arcons mind controlled an SCV.  It is very good).

PvP: Tank still right?  Zealot Tank sounds like it should be alright against goon reaver.

ZvT: Lots of interesting questions here; does mass hydra actually become good in the absence of tanks?  Dragoons might kill lurkers less efficiently than tanks, but they're more mobile so maybe they put on pressure faster than zerg can prepare.  But dragoons are miserable against sunkens (sunkens deal explosive damage, half damage to marines, but full damage to dragoons).  Siege tanks can siege out of range.  Feels like another tank win.

ZvP: Tank.  Nice hydras you have there, would be a shame if *tank noises*.

Uh, yeah, seems like a clean 5-0.

(S tier)
Siege Tank

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 13, 2021, 08:46:55 AM
Ok, well, last of the three ground splash units is the reaver.

I think it's worse than the siege tank, so I guess what we're doing is messing around with a reaver for vulture trade, and seeing what that looks like.

Reaver vs Vulture

ZvT: It's tempting to say reaver here, just because Vultures aren't currently used much in this matchup.  Buuut I think reavers have a lot of the same problems in the matchup.  It's a ton of investment that gets shut down by mutas and scourge.  I do still think the answer is Reaver, though, just because they are a much needed counter to dark swarm; once defilers are out, probably make reavers.

ZvP: Probably vulture.  That old Corsair Vulture combo against zerg again.

TvT: Hmm...Vulture is a lot better early on.  In the midgame, when everyone is dropping stuff on top of tank lines...Reaver is just better than other things you can drop on tanks.  Depends on the phase of the game, not sure.

PvP: It...might be reavers actually.  Reaver goon beats pure goon.  Vultures...are nice for sure, mines make reaver drops a bad idea, help block DTs, not all that bad at fighting dragoons.  But I'm not sure how they win the army fight.

TvP: Vulture.  Don't even think protoss will use it all that much in the matchup--some early to get map control and map vision, but just taking it away from Terran is such a big deal for protoss.  Reavers will do some work in the matchup, but I don't think they'll counter zealots as well as vultures do.

Hmm...2-1-2, yeah, feels reasonable in the same tier as vulture.

(S tier)
Siege Tank

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 13, 2021, 06:15:18 PM
While I couldn't find the game from a few months ago, we have a SCOUT ALERT in Game 3 of the finals here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahnzlVnvdPE
(1 hour 14 minutes in or so for Game 3)

Total Arbiters built: 0
Total Scouts built: 2

EDIT: While on the low tier unit lookout, there was a recent-ish TvZ game where T went mech, Z couldn't punish, and Z built Queens hoping for some classic Spawn Broodling The Tanks action.  Didn't actually work though so less helpful for tiering since the mech army attacked before enough Queens could build energy - a nice thought for an ultra-long game but Z died before it could get there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 15, 2021, 01:52:34 AM
I have definitely seen queens work against tank heavy builds at pro level.  Not sure about specifically mech openers, though, since mech often comes with a timing attack and is very goliath heavy, usually this is when games go long, and terran has multiple factory production making tanks (often with bio support rather than full mech).  Queens counter that.

And yeah, the decline of arbiters is interesting, and I don't think it's necessarily because arbiters are bad units.  It's just because Carriers are a lot better now that a new micro trick got discovered, so they're the endgame tech of choice now.  Mini went carriers almost every game that series.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 15, 2021, 05:13:33 AM
Alright, well, time to do more head to head comparisons.  Since I've been doing mostly ranged units, logical continuation would be ranged air units.

Mutalisk vs Siege Tank:

ZvZ: Mutalisk wins.

ZvT: Mutalisk wins (zerg can't defend against it).

TvT: Tank wins.

ZvP: Tank--don't need to go muta vs P, and even a few tanks supporting hydras would cause huge problems, make HTs way harder to use.

TvP: Tank.  Protoss has Corsairs.

3-2.  Maybe same tier, but siege tank could be higher.  Only wins basically come down to Muta good vs Z.

Mutalisk vs Dragoon

ZvZ: Muta wins

ZvT: Muta wins

ZvP: Muta wins

PvP: Hm, might be dragoons, but sounds like a complex matchup where one side could win by building more mutas than expected, or lose by overbuilding corsairs against a muta fakeout.

TvP: Hmm...I think Mutas?  The threat of a big muta opener largely stops terran from building only tanks and vultures.  Mutas would build out of stargate, so it's an easy transition to carriers from there.

Comfy 4-1 blowout.

Mutalisk vs Vulture

ZvZ: Muta wins.

ZvT: Muta wins.

ZvP: Vulture probably.  A unit that's excellent at countering protoss generally and zealots specifically?

TvT: Muta.  Terran's not great at handling them.

TvP: Vulture; lack of muta sucks.

Ok, so 3-2.  Still suggesting. Muta is a higher tier.

Muta vs Reaver

ZvZ: Muta wins

ZvP: Muta wins.

PvP: Huh, not sure.  Like...in a long enough game where everyone has all the tech, mutas will get shut down by corsairs.  But in a shorter game, if you get caught without a stargate against mutas, you die.  But if you build blind corsairs, and then a large gateway army shows up you probably also die.

PvT: Muta.  Terran has to build their opening tech completely different just to compensate for the muta threat, and techs well into carriers.

ZvP: Muta.  Zerg is kinda psyched to get reavers, which they can use to counter bio.  Until Vulture Tank shows up and kills them.

4-0 or 5-0.

Seems more comfortably in a similar bracket to siege tank.

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 15, 2021, 06:02:03 AM
Hmm...carriers...I don't feel totally confident rating, cause it is a bit of a mystery what changes in the meta to make them good or bad.  Like...why don't we see more carriers in PvP?  Is it mind control from dark archons?  Is it stasis allowing dragoons to position underneath?  Is it storm?  Is it just that PvP is extremely aggro and doesn't have time to get to higher tech?

At least with Zerg I know it's defilers that shut carriers down.

Anyway, they're used in one matchup right now, and the units like that are mostly B tier and C tier (Corsairs, Marines, Hydras). so let's try swapping for...Hydras?

Carrier vs Hydra

ZvP: Hydra wins.  Not because Protoss builds hydras, but because they build corsairs, and zerg loses all their overlords for the rest of the game, and can't really do anything about it (build tons of spores I guess?)

ZvT: Carriers, but it's a mild win.  I mean, treating carriers the same way as corsairs when given to zerg they would be vulnerable to irradiate, but one irradiate doesn't kill, so maybe they're still worth it.  Marines can't kill carriers (more armour than ultralisks) but they can kill all the interceptors.  Like...probably still carriers cause hydras don't do much in this matchup, but I think it's a pretty small win.

ZvZ: Neutral.  Carriers would require a greater spire, and a ton of time to build.  Maybe there's a build that hard turtles for them, they do beat mutas in a head to head fight.  But...I'm going to say tie here, cause I doubt it matters.

PvP: Probably lean hydra, but a mild lean--there's probably some timing attacks, where you hit before the opponent gets reavers, and hydras do have the rock-paper-scissors on dragoons.  But hydras require two upgrades or they are incredibly bad (slower than non-speed zealots, 4 range), and I think skipping those upgrades and not building hydras is pretty fair.

PvT: Carriers, by a lot.

So...2-2ish.

Hmm

Carrier vs Medic+Marine

TvP: Carrier wins.

TvZ: Marine wins.  Mech isn't terrible into zerg.  But carriers are pretty bad cause defilers.

TvT: Carrier wins.

TvP: Carrier wins.

PvP: Probably a mild win for marine, but very mild cause reavers still exist.

3-1 or 3-2, makes carrier look like it's pushing more into B-tier.

Carrier vs Scourge

ZvP: Huh, I am not sure.  Scourge are definitely relevant in the matchup, sniping shuttles and observers, but Carriers might actually be a strong endgame option; depends how good spells are against them really.

TvP: Carrier wins.  What air units does terran even have that protoss wants to hit?  Science Vessels?

PvP: Scourge win.  Anti-shuttle anti-observer tech.

ZvZ: Scourge win.

ZvT: Scourge--pretty sure if we let irradiate hit zerg carriers that SV's counter them.  Zerg needs counters to SVs and scourge is it.

3-1.

Carrier vs Goliath

TvT: Carrier here.

TvP: Carrier.

PvP: Minimal impact.  Don't think goliaths will be made much over goons; maybe one or two for the antiair range but that assumes the range upgrade is worth getting.

TvZ: Minimal impact.  Battlecruisers are probably better vs zerg anyway (exactly enough damage to one-shot scourge.  Plage screws up interceptor AI; they get stuck in the carrier till it wears off).

PvZ: Neither one is getting made.

2-3-0 carriers.

Yeah, carriers are hard to grade.  Ranging from tying a C-tier unit to beating a B-tier unit.  They seem to look a lot better when given to zerg than to terran.  Given that carriers just won an ASL built in every single winning game of the series, I'm going to lean towards the higher tier, though.

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Carrier

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 15, 2021, 07:37:17 AM
Other air units...

Battlecruisers are built sometimes lategame TvT, and sometimes as the newest ASL season showed, in lategame TvZ.

Vakyries are built sometimes lategame TvT, and sometimes as anti-muta tech.

Wraiths are built sometimes, just...sometimes.

All obnoxiously in the same race, but pretty sure these are the next three best air units.  I'm not going to compare any of these to hydras (hydras win, if it's not clear).

All of these are better than the scout.  Like...yeah, maybe built less in the most recent ASL finals, but that was purely because terran did a timing attack without the ability to build any antiair units, because terran didn't expect any.

The only one where a trade could be interesting is trading Valkyrie for Scout, but that's just because it's a net loss for both races (terran won't build a scout when they can build wraiths--faster, higher range, more DPS, but I guess less tanky.  Protoss won't build valkyries when they can build corsairs).

Guardian Vs Scout

So like...in that ASL game where they built scouts...guardians would be better there.  More ground damage.  Able to outrange missile turrets, so there's no way the terran could just stabilize by finishing their turrets.  But...there's a problem, and the problem is the timing.

Tech to fleet beacon in build times is gateway (38) + Cybernetics Core (38) + Stargate (44) + Fleet Beacon (38) = 160ish in game time.  120 before starting the scouts.

Tech to greater spire in build times is spawning pool (50) + Lair (63) + Queen's Nest (38) + Hive (75) + Greater Spire.  300 in game units of time before having the first muta cocoon into a guardian.

I don't know how to represent that in the protoss tech tree.  Like...maybe guardians require a really slow upgrade at the fleet beacon?

But either way, the push that mini stopped with scouts?  If guardians come into the game anywhere near their normal time, they aren't stopping that push, and in fact if we try to be really faithful to build times, your first carriers will already be out and accumulating interceptors before the guardian would be available to build in a game.

With that in mind, let's look at some matchups:

TvP: Scout--the whole point of that long preamble, is that yes scouts are better TvP, cause they are air to ground damage before carriers.  Although...while guardians don't show up till later, once the tech is available, they would build fast.  Maybe there's a world where you build guardians just to get an extra unit or two out against a big push.

ZvP: So...long before scouts showed up in an ASL final, they got built usually as a 1-of in PvZ, against a zerg who was teching to mutas or whatever and didn't make a single spore in any base.  Does protoss losing that matter more than zerg losing guardians?  Yeah, probably--guardians are basically only considered worth trying in ZvP if protoss doesn't make corsairs, which...protoss pretty much always makes corsairs.  But...guardians might also open up harassment options for protoss, so maybe they're not losing scout harassment options, they're gaining guardian harassment options?  I think scourge should be able to shut that down, and that'd have trouble getting across the map vs hydras.

PvP: Doesn't matter.

ZvZ: Um, hm, so scout isn't terrible at fighting mutas, and it's a lot more mineral heavy, so it's a mineral dump that could help get air dominance.  Ultimately I think the fact that it's slower would hold it back...it does have a 200/200 upgrade that makes it as fast as a muta, but affording that upgrade in ZvZ sounds tricky.  Still...seems like at least a mild scout win.

ZvT: Mild guardian win I guess, as guardians are occasionally made vs T, and...assuming T can irradiate scouts like all the other zerg air units, building scouts seems ill advised.

Eh...Technically 3-1, but a couple of the scout wins there's some potential for a guardian win.  Like...maybe vs Z, the corsairs can just escort guardians at zerg mineral lines, and protect them from scourge.  Might reliably shut down a base.  Think I'm ok putting these two on the same tier.

---

Devourers I want to put a tier below.  I actually can't remember the last time I saw one in a pro match; never in the modern era of ASL.  Technically they trade pretty well cause devourers paired with corsairs or valkyries are actually very good for the debuff, but zerg can only pair them with mutas or hydras, both of which don't get much out of the debuff.

OK, so adding all these in...

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 16, 2021, 05:30:35 AM
OK, so, the last of the ranged attacking units, firebat.

It's used sometimes TvZ.  Mostly as a counter to dark swarm as it's one of the only ways for terran to hit under a dark swarm (and it's still very bad at that).  And even still, terran has other options, it mostly comes out cause Terran might already have 2/2 or 3/3 for bio.

Firebat vs Scout-- not a very interesting trade.  Pretty sure there's zero situations where protoss builds a firebat, and zero situations where terran builds a scout.  So it's really what they'd lose by giving up the unit.  Scout matters in more matchups (PvZ and PvT).  But firebat matters considerably more in the one matchup where it is good.  Maybe a mild win to Firebat.

Firebat vs Guardian

TvZ: Firebat.  Pretty sure losing firebats hurts terran more than zerg losing guardians.

TvT: Maybe Guardian?  So...one very minor niche to guardian is that it is very supply efficient.  Like...twice the cost of a muta for the same supply.  And it can do things like bust through a turret line.  Still hard to justify building these over battlecruisers, but 6 supply of guardians does deal about twice the damage as 6 supply of Battlecruisers.  They're also considerably less durable than 6 supply of battlecruisers, can't hit air, and die to irradiate, but I think there might be a niche for them?

ZvZ: Maybe firebat actually.  Well...I don't know if they're worth the tech (they'd unlock from...the hydra den logically?)  But there's definitely some potential for interesting pre-muta play.  Firebats don't counter well-microed zerglings on their own, but if you position your own zerglings to prevent a surround on firebats, there's probably an interesting bust option there, or maybe an interesting strategy for turtling at the top of a ramp.

ZvP: Not really sold on either unit in this matchup.  Protoss against zerg will basically always have corsairs.  And Firebats lose to zealots.  Maybe you catch a protoss without corsairs, or maybe it's worth having a firebat mixed in with a hydra force to punish zealots running at you but...ehh...just going to call this a tie.

TvP: Maybe slight lean guardian.  If protoss has no stargates yet, and the map is built with guardians in mind (empty space behind a mineral line) maybe you can shut down mining at a base.  There's a lot of things that need to go right for this to happen, but seems more likely than firebats in this matchup.

So...roughly 2-2.

Eh, yeah, initial guess seems right.

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 16, 2021, 05:49:20 AM
Remaining ranged attacking units...Archon.

Mmm...do I really want to evaluate this separately from high templar?  I guess in SC2 this would be reasonable, because people will just make two high templar to immediately merge them.

So...I guess I evaluate it that way, as, how good would this be if you just made high templar to merge them.

That's...not really a good plan in any matchup at the moment.  Zerg used to be the race to use archons against cause they do beat up zerglings, but now that zerg is all mass hydra, archons are pretty bad into that too.

Or maybe I evaluate this as "how much does protoss lose if they can't merge high templar after using storm?"

And...honestly it's...definitely something.

Trades aren't going to be a great way to evaluate this, TBH, but...telling a protoss they can't merge archons after using storm...that's probably going to hurt less than other races losing C-tier units (Lurker, Hydra, Marine+Medic).  But it sure hurts more than losing scouts for protss, or losing guardians for Zerg, so not E tier either.  Guess that settles them into D-tier for now.

In terms of how they'd look just trading the units...zerg might care about archons for ZvZ.  Terran would use them TvZ under dark swarm, as a better alternative to firebat, so yeah, that's an argument for them to be a tier above firebat.  Might just get used TvZ in general to beat up lings.  I don't think they're willing to give up medic+marine for archons though (archons wouldn't mesh as well with mech).  Probably for that matchup happy to give up any of wraith/valkyrie/battlecruiser for archon (though that would probably hurt them in TvT).

Sure, drop archon in D for now.

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 08, 2022, 07:43:44 AM
So I had some thoughts about how to make Defiler make sense with trading, and I think it goes like this:

If it goes to another race, they can decide whether dark swarm blocks ranged attacks or blocks melee attacks.  That way Terran can be like "dark swarm blocks melee attacks" and it would actually be useful for them, instead of being a spell they would only cast in TvT.

In terms of interesting units made...Firebats in TvP Light vs Mini (landed a barracks in a base that was walled off by pylons, started making firebats, which the probes needed to fight):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdA3TatEWRQ&t=12775s

Also an interesting game in group B, long macro TvZ where lurker tech was just never made--zerg just skipped straight to defilers and ultras at the same time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd-ASvJ400M&t=3600s

Another interesting development is that several people are talking about the "trend" in PvT being to build lots of high templar, maybe get two robos, and ferry them around in speed shuttles.  I'm...not hugely impressed by this trend in ASL, since most of the times I've seen it pulled out this season the Protoss loses.  (Carriers, on the other hand, have a great winrate this season).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 08, 2022, 10:46:19 AM
So...looks like I had a system here, where I was doing all the ranged attack units first, and I missed a ranged attacking unit...(kinda).  Carrier.  Technically doesn't have an attack, just the interceptors do, probably why I missed it.

I'm looking at the  A-tier units, and thinking...no (trading with vulture just seems like too big of a win, and told they need to cut one of Dragoon, Reaver, or Carrier, pretty sure most protoss are cutting Carrier; dragoon and reaver too important).

So...B-tier comparisons.

Carrier vs Scourge

PvP: Scourge wins.  having an actually good tool against shuttles with reavers in them has to be a win.

PvT: Carriers Win.  Not really much of Terran's that Protoss would want to scourge.

PvZ: So Scourge are important and all that, they kill or chase Corsairs, they kill observers in lurker contains, they help fend off reaver drops.  But like...if it gets to lategame, I don't think protoss has a good answer to carriers.  There's dark archon mind control.  I guess they would be biological carriers, so dark archon Maelstrom would work.  Actually, yeah, you know what, Protoss would have game against biological carriers.  Should be a scourge win.

ZvZ: Probably Scourge still.  So...carriers are cost effective aginst mutas, AND they're more mineral heavy so if you survived long enough to get carriers out you'd be in good shape.  The idea of turtling to get out lategame tech that will also be slow-moving when it's done being effective in ZvZ just seems...unlikely.  If you really tutrtle with sunkens and spores, they expand and tech up to defilers, and maybe still win.  So...thinking Scourge still.

ZvT: Since the carriers would be biological, they won't be happy about irradiate.  Two irradiates kill a carrier, air unit so will damage surrounding carriers, and once you add in interceptor costs, they're about doube the net cost of an ultra, so...pretty vulnerable to irradiate.  But...other than landing two consecutive irradiates, carriers will be kind-of impossible to kill for bio.  And...carriers would give a real purpose to Devourers if there's enough air units.  Also a good way to hit down plagued Science Vessels.  Unsure.

3-1 scourge.

Carrier vs Goliath

TvT: So...obviously carriers good vs terran, plus they're very mineral heavy.  But lacking goliaths opens up some weaknesses early on.  Wraith rushes and drops become pretty hard to defend against.  But I think you can stabilize with turrets.  And if you can stall things out to a split map scenario, common enough in TvT.  This is messy, not sure?

TvP: Goliaths are gone, but terran mostly needed them vs carriers.  Carriers are gone for protoss, which is a significant loss.  And Terran carriers are...an option that I suspect protoss would struggle with.

TvZ: maybe small edge to goliaths, as they open up meching options.  Carrier's probably worse into zerg than battlecruisers, so not much gained there.

PvZ: Goliaths might do something vs zerg; bettter than dragoons against both lings and mutas.

PvP: Probably small edge goliath cause carriers aren't doing much of anything,  and shuttles are.

Seems more even.

Carrier vs Corsair: probably leans Corsair.  Each is good in one matchup, but Carrier isn't mandatory vs terran.

---

Okay, not many clear wins here, let's look at C tier I suppose.

Carrier vs Hydra

ZvZ: Not much movement.  I mean...more of a chance Carrier does something than hydra in this matchup, but probably not by much since there isn't breathing room to tech; relatively unchanged.

ZvP: Hydras win.  As discussed, Protoss could  handle a biological carrier (maelstrom).  Zerg without hydra loses a lot (protoss won't make them, though).

ZvT: Probably a mild carrier win?  Biological carriers don't sound great due to their vulnerability to irradiate, but hydras aren't doing a ton for zerg in this matchup.

PvT: Carriers win.  Don't see hydras as doing much for toss.

PvP: Hmmm...hydras, probably.  They're dangerous to stay on for long, cause they do die to reavers, but a bit better in the hydra vs goon matchup.

2-2ish.

Carrier vs Lurker

ZvZ: no significant movement probably.

ZvT: Lurker win.  Stabilize the midgame.  Biological carriers honestly weaker to irradiate.

ZvP: Hmm....maybe carriers?  Unlike a couple other options, losing lurkers doesn't make the midgame unplayable.  And while dark archons give protoss play against carriers (particularly biological carriers) that's a big investment when not behind economically.

PvT: Carrier.  Lurker isn't even good here.

PvP: Probably doesn't matter.  DTs are better cloak tech than Lurker.  Dragoon observer reaver is already the default comp and steps on lurkers.

Carrier vs Marine/Medic

PvZ: Marine/medic.  I mean, you can switch off the tech if they go for dark swarm, but should shred hydras, suddenly best gateway unit against mutas.

PvP: Maybe a tiny lean marines but...don't think it matters; early rushes will be better off building zealots.  Once dragoon range is out you don't want marines.  Once reaver is out you really don't want marines.

PvT: Carrier, obviously.

TvZ: Marine/Medic

TvT: Uh, Carrier I guess?  (As always the assumption is that you have some defence against all-in cheese if you trade away your first unit).

OK, these feel pretty balanced.  C tier on Carrier?

(S tier?)
Siege Tank
Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 01:23:29 AM
Right so...melee units.

Zergling gets compared straight to the S tier units of course.

Zergling vs Tank

ZvT: Okay, so...zerg turtles with spines, I guess?  And...actually, while establishing up new bases on the map would be a pain because of roaming armies, Terran can't easily break a base with spines and maybe lurkers and siege tanks.  But...remember anything traded to zerg becomes biological, so Science Vessels kinda fix everything; just irradiate the biological siege tanks.  Breaking Zerg who has siege tanks and lurkers would be a pain, but they'd have no real map control due to Terran having zerglings, and I think they would slowly bleed units due to having a way too immobile force to take more bases.  Slight Zergling lean I guess?

ZvZ: Zergling wins.  Lol siege tanks, cool unit that dies to mutas.

ZvP: So like...ignoring cheese (which we do when the tier 1 unit is traded away) everything changes.  Protoss doesn't need to wall; no forge and gateway in a wall to kill by hydra busts.  Protoss might be able to out-expand zerg as they do terran when playing against siege tanks.  Seems like...a weaker race than terran--Hydras are worse than vultures, slower, kill zealots slower, don't have mines, in exchange for being better vs dragoons.  But...other aspects might complicate this.  Hydras hit air, so shuttle drops on tanks would get naturally countered.  Protoss still needs to make a stargate and corsairs in case of mutas.  Going Carrier isn't really an option between scourge and defilers.  Hydras can easily get right up to the protoss base normally, and tossing a siege tank or two in there sounds really scary; could just shell the natural nexus.  But...siege tanks need siege mode researched, presumably Lair, hydras need researches.  Protoss would have more breathing room early--zealots could safely sit outside the zerg natural.  I don't know, this one is very complicated.

TvT: Probably tanks?  Zerglings would be a great tool in TvT; best unit to drop on tanks from dropships.  But...I think vultures just counter them hard enough the earlygame, and later than that you'll want tanks.

TvP: I feel like it's zergling, but this is not too clear.  Zergling+Vulture just beats every gateway army while being more mobile than gateway armies, and unlike roaming vulture armies, can just shred a base.  However...Reavers are a bit of a problem and tanks were the thing that kept Reavers under control, Carriers still exist.  So...I'm not 100% sure on this one.

Hmm...lots of unsures.  Zergling vs Tank seems close.

Zergling vs Muta

ZvZ: Maybe slight lean Muta?  So...what are we talking here, defend with sunkens not lings, and rush out mutas?  While the opponent tries to win with...zergling scourge?  Sounds like some actual ZvZs I've seen, but the Zergling Scourge strat seems a bit worse from the games I've seen.

ZvT: Zergling.  Mutas you build some at a specific point in the game, and they put you ahead.  But Zerglings are your army for the entire match; builds that skip mutas exist; they're bad, but they exist--someone using one of those builds in ASL isn't a total shock.

ZvZ: Mmm...kinda close maybe?  Zerglings have a moment where they give map control and force the protoss to turtle.  Mutas existing force protoss to go early stargate just in case.  Neither one seems super essential once you get to an established midgame.

OK, I came into this thinking Zerglings would just be on their own level, like S+ tier, but it seems more like they fit comfortably into S tier.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 05:39:22 AM
Zealot...doesn't seem like it would be S tier.  Zerglings are better

Doesn't seem like it would be B tier, Zealot is more important than Corsair to protoss.

Seems reasonable to fit it in the same tier as Dragoon--tell a protoss that they need to pick either not making dragoons or not making zealots, and that's kinda hard, maybe leans towards Dragoon.

So probably A tier.  Most of the A tier units are already protoss, but let's compare zealot to vulture.

Zealot vs Vulture

PvP: This is a vulture win.  Mines help against reaver drops.  Vultures fight ok against dragoons.  Vultures have map mobility and can probably kill some probes.  Zealots aren't too important in this matchup.

PvT: After some thought...Vulture.  This is tricky, cause protoss now has a big speed advantage (with Dragoon and Vulture), and vulture runbys will be brutal (trying to respond to vulture runbys when your most mobile unit is Zealot sounds rough).  However, the doom push with zealot tank sounds very hard to stop.  Zealots are higher HP meatshields that make it harder to get to tanks, and protoss doesn't have very many units happy to get on top of tanks (like...Vulture, or DT basically).  But on the third hand, if protoss manages to take that economic and map control advantage, and use it to tech switch into carriers, they're fine.  Unsure.  But I lean Protoss here, just because Carriers means that Terran needs to hit a timing window against a race that will have much better map control (faster units and mines).  Also...I forgot about Reavers.   Reavers probably push this further towards protoss (Vulture mines are good for defending against reavers, Zealots are very bad against reavers, so Terran gets a big downgrade in defending against reavers, and reavers were already good against them).

PvZ: This is a zealot win.  Vultures are okayish against Hydras, but not as good as zealots.  And there's production and timing concerns--Vultures would presumably build out of the robo.

TvT: Vultures are better early on as they counter zealots.  Whoever has vultures should gain an early advantage I think.  But as the game goes long, Zealots just grow in relevance.  Now the best unit terran has by far to drop out of a dropship on top of a tank.  Actually a unit that can run at a siege line productively in the matchup (without even being dropped).  I think this leans Zealot overall, but the Vulture player for sure gains an early economic lead, and maybe that lead is large enough so...I'm a little unsure.

TvZ: Almost certainly Zealot.  Vulture doesn't do much for them in this matchup.  A beefy unit to tank for stim marines is almost certainly good.  A unit that can fight under dark swarm is something Terran would love.

So...2-2, or maybe 3-2 Zealot with one pretty narrow win.

Is it possible I'm underselling Zealot?  Maybe I should compare it to some S-tier units.

Zealot vs Mutalisk

ZvZ: Muta beats up zerg.

ZvP: Muta beats up zerg.

ZvT: Unclear.  Zealots are overall more efficient than Ultras, but Ultras do have the +2 armor upgrade that makes them hard to kill by marines.  I think just "an Ultra replacement at hatchery tech that also costs only minerals" is probably pretty good.  But is it so good that it can make up for the massive economic lead mutas give zerg (killing several workers, some army, and forcing Terran to build 10+ missile turrets)?  Ehh...seems unlikely.

PvP: Muta really good against Reaver Shuttle, and honestly fine for picking off dragoons.

PvT: Muta.  Needing to worry about a muta opener from protoss as a meching Terran sounds like a nightmare.  To deal with mutas you need like mass goliaths, but if you go mass goliath and they show up with dragoons you lose the game.

OK, that wasn't close (4-1-0).  One more to be sure.

Zealot vs Siege Tank

PvP: Siege Tank.  Zealots not normally that great in this matchup.  Siege tank very good vs goon reaver balls.

PvT: Siege Tank.  Funnily enough, I'm not sure toss even uses the tanks--not sure how terran beats dragoon Reaver without tanks.  Don't want Zealots against that.  Don't want bio, don't want vultures.

PvZ: Unsure.  Zealots very good against zerg, but Siege Tank could fix some protoss problems against zerg (kinda destroy both hydras and lurkers).  Unlike terran, protoss needs a relatively small investment to protect against mutas (corsairs) so can support a siege tank opener.

TvT: Siege Tank.  I don't think Terran has the tools to just go full protoss and push through siege lines using zealots--neither Goliath nor Vulture can really replace Dragoon.

TvZ: Might be Zealot?  "Unit that can fight under dark swarm" is pretty compelling for terran.

So...3-1, with one unsure.

OK, yep, Zealot not S tier; A tier it is, in that case.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 06:13:46 AM
Alright, dark templar.

Lists I've seen have typically put this above Lurker, so let's start with that comparison just for sanity.

Lurker vs DT:

PvP: DT.  Lurkers aren't going to be part of a Reaver goon ball--just countered by all of those units.  And DTs are better at cheesing a win.

PvT: DT.  Can stealth walk up to tanks.  Lurkers cannot stealth walk up to tanks.

PvZ: I don't think protoss would do much with Lurkers--approaching uncloaked makes them bad at sneaking into bases.  But lurkers having range is somewhat important for zerg lurker contains.  On the other hand, DTs being able to move out of storm is a big deal, and protoss detection is very easy to snipe.  If a protoss army gets stuck out on the map, and detection gets sniped, it's probably worse with DTs.  Can't storm them, can't just back off.  Dunno, this one is interesting.

ZvZ: Doesn't matter

ZvT: Probably Lurker.  Another case where the range is important.  And Terran tends to naturally get tons of detection in this matchup (missile turrets as anti-muta.  Science Vessel).  That said, DT busts where you surprise your opponent and don't go muta would be better than Lurker busts.

So like...2-1 score.  DT winning as expected, but  not by tons.  Lurker was flagged as being on the low end of this group, so maybe DT does belong in C.

Let's try comparing a B-tier unit.

DT vs Scourge

PvP: Scourge.  You lose a cheese, but anti shuttle tech is big.

PvT: DT.  Pretty relevant in this matchup.  And Scourge doesn't have lots of targets.

PvZ: Scourge.  Corsairs without these become a problem.  Reaver drops without these become a problem.  Protoss is not that scared of what zerg can do with DT.

ZvZ: no.

ZvT: Scourge.  Needed for science vessels.

OK, 3-1 Scourge.

B-tier looking likely here.  Let's do another B-tier comparison.

DT vs Marine/Medic:

PvT: DT wins (mild win).  Protoss doesn't have much use for Marines, but Terran both wants to take DT away from Protoss, and maybe could do some damage with a DT.

PvP: DT wins (mild win).  Marines aren't useful here, but lacking DT isn't that bad.

PvZ: Maybe Marine/Medic?  Beats up on hydras.  DTs have uses here too, though.

TvT: DT wins.  Good for the same reasons Zealots are good in TvT--great unit to drop on tanks. 

TvZ: Marines.  Terran can survive without them by meching, but it's not like DT is a ton of compensation.  Terran is in the market for a unit that can fight under dark swarm, but mech terran fights usually don't go to dark swarm.

So...3-2 DT.  But some of the DT wins are mild, like "opens up a cheese", pretty close to tied.

Yeah, C-tier actually seems OK.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 07:26:05 AM
Okay, so transports.

Transports, like workers, get a kind of "essential service" tag, so even if you trade away your transport, you can still get some bad expensive slow moving transport to expand to island bases.  (like 100/100 cost, speed of a slow overlord, doesn't give supply like a slow overlord).

I suppose at the same time we need to talk about detectors, cause overlord has that going on too.  If you trade away your detector unit, you get a very weak detector (like observer that doesn't cloak and has no upgrades).

If Zerg trades away overlord...they don't lose the weakness of being vulnerable to corsairs.  Their overlords just have a move speed of 0 and don't detect, but still fly over their bases.

Oh, one last thing, if a race picks up overlord, then they start with an overlord  that can scout immediately (and their command center gives less supply to make up for that).

I...don't have an intutive sense of where these will end up.  I feel like trading away key matchup units is probably incorrect.  So...what's a unit that's not a key matchup unit, but is nice to have....?

Overlord vs DT

ZvZ: Overlord.  100% free scouting that would otherwise be hard to get.

ZvP: Overlord I think.  So...overlord would be what...a gateway unit, or a nexus unit?  Something low tech?  This is nice cause at some point you stop corsair production and don't have a use for that building.  On the other hand, protoss doesn't need the supply.  What protoss can use is the additional detection, and maybe the additional unit that can pick up and drop reavers.  Like...one question people ask is "against lurker contains why not build reavers?" and the reason is that observers get sniped, and observers get built out of the same building as reavers (and shuttles).  But being able to make overlords frees up the robo.  Scourging down overlords is also a lot less efficient than scourging down observers.  Also, lost scouting from the overlord on the zerg side.  Yeah, probably overlord.

ZvT: Overlord.  Unironically, if Zerg actually needs to tech to and spend resources on detection, Wraiths become a problem.  And there's lost scouting.  Don't think DTs do much here.

PvP: I mean, don't think it's too impactful; if overlords build out of gateways or nexuses, and you start with an overlord, you will not lose to DTs.  Probably slight lean Overlord.

PvT: Hmm...Oh wait, hold up, you don't need to get robo tech to clear mines?  Yeah, fine Overlord.

OK, that's a pretty clean 5-0.

Let's try a B-tier unit?

Overlord vs Goliath

TvT: Not sure.  So...your anti-air is hampered quite a bit by losing goliaths.  Need to make wraiths I guess to cover that weakness.  But...a dropship that costs no supply, fucking gives supply, and builds out of like...probably the barracks I guess?  Doesn't cost gas?  Detects too, for spider mines and ghosts and enemy wraiths.  Spots for tanks reasonably well.  Huh.  I don't know.  Lets your SCVs mine more cause it builds out of a building and they don't need to spend time making supply depots?  Like...wraiths are not a good replacement for Goliaths, but goddamn, that's...so much nice shit.

TvP: Golaiths by a lot.  Protoss sees your overlords, makes carriers, and you die.

TvZ: Overlord.  Terran gets free scouting on zerg, zerg doesn't get free scouting on terran.  Detecting and dropping not too important here. Goliaths not too important either.

ZvZ: Hmm...Goliaths could be nice in this matchup; better than hydras against both zerglings and mutas.  But...lack of scouting is a lot to give up for a unit that...is probably fine.  Not sure.

ZvP: Overlord--having them not move in the matchup with corsairs hurts a lot.  Golaiths don't do very much obvious in this matchup.

2-1 overlord, with a couple unsures.  But the one win for Goliath Goliath was absolutely mandatory.

OK, let's compare another B-tier unit.

Overlord vs Corsair

PvP: Overlord.  Free scouting.  Free detection.  Don't think you'll get the upgrades or build a lot of them, but still, nice advantage.

PvT: Overlord.  Scouting.  Detection without going robo.  Ability to use the robo on not observers.

PvZ: Corsair by a lot; die to mutas.

ZvZ: Corsair.  Beat mutas.  The lack of scouting hurts, but unlike goliaths, Corsair is a bit more unambiguous about air dominance.

ZvT: Probably overlord--just all the scouting, detection vs stuff like wraiths being a problem.  But Corsair not a total meme.  If you plague all of the SVs, Corsair's better than Muta to pick them off.  I don't even hate disruption web--when SVs retreat back to marines, disruption web the marines and kill SVs anyway.  Corsairs would be biological and die to irradiate, of course, but...they'd have some niches late in the game.  Don't think this makes up for the earlygame.

3-2 Overlord, although the Corsair wins were big wins (like...matchup becomes completely one-sided level).

Eh, Overlord seems like it can slide into B-tier.


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 08:19:42 AM
So, ok, next dropper

Overlord vs Shuttle

Overlord sounds like it should be better but...this doesn't seem totally straightforward actually.  Overlord, to be a good dropper, needs a 200/200 research to get drops, and a 150/150 research to get movement, and is slower than a non-upgraded shuttle even after these upgrades.  (Upgraded overlord speed of about 2.5 speed.  Unupgraded shuttle 3.3 speed.  Upgraded shuttle about 5.0 speed).  These are two upgrades that take 180 in game seconds too--probably on something like the Citadel of Anduin being a gateway unit.

PvP: Shuttle.  You do not have time to get overlords online as a dropper, and reavers with a dropper really fast are just too key in the matchup.

PvT: Not...sure.  Reaver drop openings just disappear, and those are a big part of PvT repertoire.  But...also, not needing to go robo and observatory every game just to handle mines is really nice.  Free scouting early on is nice.  I think you're ok with slower moving droppers--siege tanks are immobile, so zealot bombing should still work.  Essentially free (because they give supply) droppers and detectors maybe just lets you skip robo, and turbo out...either DTs without fear of not having detection, or Carriers.  On the other hand...fast shuttles are good, and can be used all game.

PvZ: This gets messy.  As with the trade of overlord to goliath, really need to get movement upgrades for overlords, and can't let them clump over bases, or corsairs just wreck.  But...will the game get that far?  The complicating factor is like...can Zerg take advantage of a much earlier transport...and I think they might be able to.  Like...if Zerg does a hydra allin and builds one shuttle, ok, it's a hydra allin, protoss needs to build like 6 cannons.  What happens if zerg has one shuttle and starts ferrying hydras into the main?  Does protoss just...die?  On the other hand, can they just rush DTs and use those to defend, since zerg doesn't get free detection?  Just...a mess.

ZvZ: Overlords.  Scouting information.  You're not dropping or detecting.

ZvT: Probably overlord just for the scouting and not being scared of wraiths due to detection.  I don't think zerg can do that much with an early shuttle; drop something I guess, but what?  Terran already builds turrets and keeps bio at home for muta.

This feels pretty messy and close-ish.  Maybe Shuttles are B?

Shuttle vs Goliath

PvP: Shuttle wins.  Needed for reavers.

PvT: Goliath wins (or rather terran being deprived of goliath).  Go directly to carriers.

PvZ: Probably shuttle.  Just...the option to go reavers if nothing else.  Don't think Goliaths are too valuable in this matchup

TvT: Golaith.  Shuttle's a slightly better dropship in lategame, but Goliath has no replacement.

TvZ: Not...too impactful either way.  Maybe Goliath though.  You don't normally make enough shuttles in this matchup to justify the speed upgrade.  Meching terran for sure makes goliaths.

Well...3-2 gol

But, these comparisons aren't too great cause of the redundancy (Terran doesn't need shuttle that badly cause they already have dropship).  Let's go back to looking at trades with zerg where adding a dropship might do something.  Both of these were narrow losses so let's look at a C tier unit.

Shuttle vs Hydra

PvP: Still shuttle I...think?  On the one hand, you really want Shuttle for PvP to use reavers.  On the other hand...hydras are cost-effective into dragoons (but worse against reaver shots).

PvT: Shuttle.  Do hydras do anything protoss cares about against mech?  Eh.  Not really.  They are medium so they take 75% damage from tanks, but being lower HP and clumping more I think they're still more vulnerable to splash.  Shuttles do lots of course.

PvZ: Hydra.  Removing this tool from Zerg makes them lost in the matchup.

ZvZ: doesn't matter.

ZvT: Maybe a small shuttle win.  Probably some surprise drops you can pull off that hit faster than mutas and catch a Terran off guard.  Does make BCs a bit more annoying to deal with super lategame, but often those are just handled through scourge anyway.

3-1 Shuttle.

Yeah, ok, Shuttle to B-tier.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Lurker (might be too high?)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 09, 2022, 08:39:19 AM
Dropships...

So I think dropships are going to be less important than shuttles.  There's no reaver unit that basically doesn't work without dropships, so Terran won't hurt too bad if they trade them away.

Numerically they're fine, faster than Shuttles at first, slower than shuttles that get the upgrade, but...at least the way I've set out the rules for all the other units, internal race synergy is at least a little bit important.

Even trading with a shuttle is unlikely to go well (dropship is a starport unit, so presumably stargate on protoss, so protoss isn't too fond of that trade).

So...let's try C-tier?

Dropship vs Lurker

ZvZ: Doesn't matter

TvT: Dropship.  Lurker basically does nothing here.

ZvT: Lurker

TvP: Lurker.  Anti-zealot AoE is relevant enough.  Terran loses Vulture drops, but...eh, think that's minor.

ZvP: Mmmm...maybe Dropship?  The idea I had before, with doing a hydra bust, waiting for them to build 6 cannons, and then ferrying into the main base.  Except this time without losing anything that would put you substantially behind or vulnerable to DTs or whatever.

OK, that's 2-2.

Let's do another zerg comparison, since protoss gets almost nothing from receiving a traded dropship

Hydra vs Dropship

ZvZ: no change

ZvT: Dropship, probably.  But not super impactful.

ZvP: Hydra by a lot.

TvP: Hydra--Hydra+Vulture would be a scary midgame army for protoss.  Terran doesn't use a lot of dropship in this matchup anyway.

TvT: Dropship by a decent amount.

Another 2-2, but one of the dropship wins was pretty mild.

Yeah, looks like C-tier--maybe on the slightly lower end of C-tier with Lurker.


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (maybe on the high end of tier)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Dropship, Lurker (maybe on the lower end of tier)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 11, 2022, 08:46:00 AM
As I've already gone a little bit into one detector (overlord) I think it makes sense to hop from there to observer.

Would protoss swap observer for Overlord?  Yes, unambiguously I'm pretty sure.  They lose some scouting where they sit an observer over a terran's factories to see what they're making, but they gain the scouting of sending the first overlord, and just generally have a better unit.

Trades with a lot of "used in one matchup" units will be weird, but let's just compare observer to some protoss units.

And again, if you give away observer, you get a replacement unit that...detects but not much else (basically an observer that doesn't cloak or have upgrades).

Is it better for Protoss to play with downgraded no-cloak observers but have access to DTs, or play with the cloakable upgradeable observers, but no DTs?  I think DTs for PvP.  Maybe observers for TvP.  And...PvZ...tough call, both are important; seems fairly even.

Is it better for Protoss to  play with downgraded no-cloak observers with access to carrioers, or access to their normal observers, but no carriers?  Observer for PvP and PvZ of course.  PvT...I think they're both very important.  Carriers in some way more important, but non-cloak observers will make them much more vulnerable to attack.

Let's trade Observers for a unit that's not really single matchup limited.

Observer vs Lurker

PvZ: Lurker wins.  Not that protoss will build it, but Zerg won't have it, and then protoss won't need observers.

PvT: Observer wins.

PvP: Observer wins (mostly cause lurkers won't be built, but...not a big win).

ZvZ: Probably no change.  Like...more likely Observer would find a use in this matchup for map vision I guess, but...probably just get more mutas or more scourge instead.

ZvT: Lurker wins.  Observer just doesn't really do very much against a terran  who fills their base with turrets and gets no cloak units.

Yeah, that was 2-2.  C tier seems about right.


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (maybe on the high end of tier)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Observer, Dropship, Lurker (maybe on the lower end of tier)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 11, 2022, 10:27:44 AM
OK, so...now to finally start putting casters up there, cause the last detector is Science Vessel.

Hmm...not immediately sure, I  guess try trading techy unit for techy unit first.

Science Vessel vs Reaver

TvT: Reaver.  Good unit to drop.  Good unit to bust up some vultures.  Drops off a bit later, but I think whoever has Reaver early gets ahead.

TvP: Reaver.  Protoss actually can't defend against these things.

TvZ: Science Vessel.  The whole matchup just goes to shit without them.  First you die to mutas, Reavers don't help with that.  Then, if you don't die to mutas, you have to figure out detection for lurkers--you spending resources on just a pure detector unit?  Just...rough.  Reavers are good against zerg because of corsairs.

PvP: Reaver.  I did spend some time thinking if EMP could be big in the matchup, and it could, if you get there without being dead you probably win.  The AoE is huge.  The range isn't great but high enough to avoid goons.  But...it requires a ton of tech to get to SVs (science facility equivalent would be like...arbiter tribunal?) and then you need to research EMP
(200/200 research) and wait for 100 energy

PvZ: Science Vessel.  Vessels destroy zerg, but now would have corsair support, so like...can't actually be killed with scourge.  Irradiating a corsair and then using  it to eraser also sounds pretty good.

OK, well 3-2 Reaver, but predictably split on zerg/not zerg.  Maybe we need to do a comparison to anti-zerg units?

Science Vessel vs Zealot

TvT: Zealot wins.  Better thing to drop out of a dropship.

TvZ: Vessel wins.  Terran dies to mutas, then dies to lurkers.

TvP: Zealot wins.  Zealot siege tank will smash a pure goon army.  Vessels are used late to counter arbiter tech, but I don't think you go arbiter tech if you don't have zealots, you try hard to go carriers, and maybe you die getting there.

ZvP: Zealot wins I think.  Hydra allins get a lot better without zealots--dragoons are just worse against hydras.  And...vessels aren't great against hydras.  I believe even if you irradiate a hydra, it can cancel irradiate by morphing into a lurker egg.  Vessels are great vs lurkers, but lurkers and maybe if the game goes extra long, Vessels will matter more, but the earlygame seems bigger.

PvP: Small edge to Vessel maybe?  EMP good.

Hm, this kind of feels like a 3-1

Maybe A-tier is ambitious.  Let's try a B-tier unit.

Science Vessel vs Corsair

TvT: Corsair?  Moving shot chase down dropships.  Absolutely shred wraiths if they get built.  And disruption web probably gets used.

TvP: Science Vessel.  Corsair isn't being used for anything here, unless it gets used to kill vessels.  Vessels did have a big use (EMP, particularly on spellcasters like arbiters).  And...is a better detector for protoss, although more expensive.  Defence Matrix on zealot mine drags probably actually relevant too.  Also just...arbiters in general seem rough, not just for recall but also because Terran would be spending resources on weaker detection.

TvZ: Is...Corsair the right answer here actually?  Like...Vulture Tank with Corsair, what does zerg do about that?  Prey on the now weaker detection by using scourge and try to make something happen with Lurkers?  That doesn't sound great into tanks.  Try to snipe observers?  Corsairs can protect them.  You also get kind-of forced into building hydras just to not lose all your overlords, but Terran is pretty good against hydras.

PvP: Science Vessel for sure.  Grab EMP.

PvZ: Probably Corsair.  You do have your pick of dark archon or SV against muta, so you're unlikely to die, but Muta is very scary now.  And zerg isn't forced into a hydra defence.

3-2...Corsair?  Surely vessels are not below B tier.  Well...no obvious anti-zerg unit in C-tier, but let's swap for a unit anyway.  I'll grab a zerg unit cause I haven't done one of those yet.

Science Vessel vs Hydra

ZvZ: Science Vessel.  An actual answer to mutas.

ZvT: Science Vessel.  Hydras not built in matchup

ZvP: Hydra.  Die to Corsairs without them.

TvT: Probably Vessels.  There might be some early rush with hydra but I feel anywhere you are using hydra you could probably also use marine and it would be not a significantly different result.  Vessels certainly get made later on though, and I suspect hydras would not be.

TvP: Maybe Hydra.  Opens up some interesting 2 base pushes.  Mass hydra type stuff, but with Vulture backup so mass zealot isn't really an option like it is vs zerg.

Huh, ok, only 3-2, a win but..closer.  Let's try another C tier unit.

Science Vessel vs Carrier

PvP: Science Vessel.  EMP stuff.

PvT: Maybe Carrier.  I think Terran can probably just turtle with tanks into carriers.

PvZ: Science Vessel.  Once you get past the pure hydra phase, it smashes lurkers and is an endless defiler sniper.

TvT: Carrier?  Seems like terran struggles against them.

TvZ: Science Vessel by miles

Ok, another 3-2 win.  This could still be indicating that vessels are above C-tier, 3-2 is a win.

Science Vessel vs Dark Templar

PvP: Tough call, but I think Vessel.  PvP can stall out on Reaver Goon not able to engage each other well, and Vessel breaks that stalemate.

PvT: Vessel.  Terran only gets dark templar, not dark archons, so no getting maelstrom and using it on zealots.  Don't think DTs do too much especially with protoss having a less vulnerable detector than observer.

PvZ: Vessel.  Yeah, well it's zerg.

TvT: I'm...unsure.  Vessels certainly get used in this matchup, but DTs would be as well.  Great unit to drop on tanks.

TvZ: Vessel

Ok, there's the 4-0 or 4-1, so that's sounding like higher than C tier.

I guess...overlord's in B tier, so let's see if that one  is interesting at all.

Science Vessel vs Overlord

TvZ: Science Vessel.  Get dumpstered by mutas.  Cool you get free scouting and know they are coming.

ZvZ: Hmm...not immediately obvious to me.  Science Vessels give a tech exit to muta wars, but they're a big investment, they move slower than mutas and scourge, so they need to be protected from scouorge, they don't hatch with enough energy to irradiate, irradiate needs to be researched and it's 200/200 to research and another 150 gas for the science facility so like 600 gas behind at least when teching.  It's not like...super slam dunk free win, some turtling with spores and good scouting probably needed.  Comparatively, overlords give you free scouting.  If one side has overlord scouting, and the other doesn't just ling flood (or drone) appropriately.  That's a pretty big advantage ealry on.

ZvP: Overlord.  Just...really need to research overlord movement against corsairs.  Quite scared of DTs as well, when you need to build science vessels for mobile detection against them, and Corsairs shred vessels.

TvT: Maybe overlord.  Dropship things built out of barracks that cost no supply, give supply and are basically free, or cheaper than free cause unlike depots they don't tie up SCV build time.  Plenty of time to get all three researches.  Being a detector is pretty nice too.  Might still make some actual dropships for speed, but free is free.

TvP: Science Vessel.  EMPs against spellcasters gone.  I don't think the overlords do very much for terran in this matchup outside of some early scouting and early DT insurance, and if they're not doing a whole lot, you don't want to build too many--unironically you don't want to encourage protoss to go corsairs.

OK, that's more what I expected from B-tier, a 2-2 score with an unsure.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (maybe on the high end of tier)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Observer, Dropship, Lurker (maybe on the lower end of tier)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 14, 2022, 06:32:33 AM
Ah, it occurs to me that I forgot to rank a melee unit.

Ultralisk.

This is a unit used in one matchup (ZvT).  It's important...but probably less important than, say, Hydralisk ZvP.

I'm thinking D-tier for this.

Ultralisk vs Battlecruiser

ZvT: I think this is an Ultralisk win.  Terran having a unit that can fight under dark swarm (and one that does pretty well against lurkers) is a big deal.  Although...now I'm wondering if I should use a similar ruling on giving units to terran (they get bricked by dark swarm) as I do giving units to zerg (units sent to zerg get bricked by irradiate).  Cause like...if we do that, Ultra is fairly low value to terran (other than taking it away from zerg) and Battlecruiser is interesting to zerg--yamato outranges irradiate.  Battlecruisers fight fairly well against marines if you keep up in air carapace, could probably just replace ultras.

ZvZ: no change

TvT: Battlecruiser win.  Ultras, particularly ultras without ling support, are pretty bad against tanks.  I guess they would be a nice unit to put in dropships and drop on top of tanks but...actually maybe not even that.  Two goliaths deal nearly as much ground dps as one ultra, and cost less.  Whereas battlecruisers in TvT fill a role that can't really be filled by another unit.

ZvP: Maybe Battlecruiser?  Is there a world where Battlecruiser gets made ZvP?  And...I think there could be.  Zerg can commit hard enough into mutas in this matchup to justify air upgrades.  If that could later transition into battlecruisers, that would be pretty good.

TvP: Thinking no change.  Is there a world where ultralisks get made as a further meatshield in front of the vulture meatshield?  And let me just say, Vultures have more HP for the cost, and take the same damage from dragoons, but Ultras would take less damage from zealots (but also more damage than vultures do from tank shots that splash onto them).  Vultures also provide a lot more damage to everything but dragoon hulls (over twice as much damage against zealots and dragoon shields, about 60% damage to dragoon hulls).  I also gave it a try in a unit tester, and 2 ultras against 8 zealots was like...zealots crushed it, 5 zealots lived.  So...no I don't think so.

Other than the dark swarm interaction, that felt pretty convincing for Battlecruiser actually.  2-1 or 2-0 depending.

Wraith for Ultra

ZvZ: Wraith...win?  In a heads up fight wraiths lose, but...they do a couple things here.  They kill overlords about 3x as fast, so you could set one wraith on overlords while the muta flock goes and postures and deals with other stuff.  Wraiths have 5 range, so having some in the muta ball allows you to poke the other muta ball without actually getting in range.  Wraiths move as fast as mutas, so they wouldn't fall behind.  Cloaking is an actual threat--you don't want to leave overlords all over the map, since they are easy snipe targets (especially with a wraith) but how safe is it to engage against an army with wraiths if you don't have nearby overlords?

ZvP: Maybe Wraith win actually?  I was about to dismiss these as just worse mutas.  But...they cloak, and protoss observers can't keep up with corsairs and are pretty easy to snipe, so maybe they keep corsairs close to base.  They have about triple the air damage of a muta and more range if you're getting reaver dropped and want to kill a shuttle.  (Way worse at ground damage, but zerg cares about anti-air in this matchup).

ZvT: I assume Ultra win.  Very commonly built unit in the matchup.  It's unclear to me what wraiths would do for Zerg here--a bit more range and air damage than mutas to snipe science vessels, but the cloak doesn't help since vessels already detect.  Way worse against turrets, worse against marines.  Worse if they get irradiated (more expensive unit) just...don't see zerg as likely to make them.

TvT: Wraith win.  Wraiths are an opening in TvT, and a unit you can build throughout the match.  I think ultras would just be unused.

TvP: Wraith win.  If you scout or expect reaver drop, you make a wraith.

Um, ok, that's a 4-1 stomp.

Maybe ultras are E tier?  No, that just looks wrong.  Guardians are garbage.  Scouts are garbage.  Firebat--it's the terran melee unit that's worse than ultra.

Ultra vs Archon--I think in terms of a straight up unit comparsion, Ultra probably wins, but Archon is getting boosted a bit cause they're free to morph from low energy HTs.  Well, that leaves one other head to head.

Ultra vs Valkyrie

ZvZ: Valkyrie wins.

ZvT: Probably an ultra win.  Valkyrie can be built in this matchup, but Ultra is more consistently built.

ZvP: Not sure.  Would zerg build valkyries?  (I'm ignoring the devourer synergy here, just pretend devourer isn't a thing for this trade).  Valkyries do...alright against corsairs, about an even trade.  They punish Corsairs for running away, but they're also slow and can be chased down by corsairs if in a bad position.  The idea would be to really ram mutas through with surprise extra anti-air between valks and scourge to keep the corsair count down.  But moving slower than the rest of the air army...thinking that might not be worth building.

TvT: Eh, not sure.  Ultras are pretty minor in this matchup, slightly better unit to drop on tanks than goliaths or unsieged tanks.  But valkyries are also on the minor side.

TvP: I'd lean ultra here.  Valks aren't getting used at all.  Ultras are fast, so a roaming group of vultures and an ultra, the ultra could open up a pylon wall to a base and let the vultures in.

So...2-1 ultra.

OK, so...maybe I need to revisit Battlecruiser and/or Wraith--maybe they're being underrated by being in D-tier, but Ultra being in the same tier as archon and valkyrie seems fine.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (maybe on the high end of tier)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier
Observer, Dropship, Lurker (maybe on the lower end of tier)

(gap)

(D tier?)
Wraith, Battlecruiser (maybe on high end of tier?)
Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(E tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(F tier)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 14, 2022, 06:43:00 AM
Side note, I notice that I ranked Carrier earlier, but a copy/paste error removed it from the list.  I coinflipped it into B last time, cause Mini had just won an ASL building carriers every game, and also I had probably underrated Goliath when I compared Carrier to Goliath that time.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 14, 2022, 07:54:09 AM
OK, so...going back to the thoughts before, I'm wondering if there ought to be a tier between D and E, cause a couple units (like lurker) are looking to be on the low end of D, and a couple units (like wraith) are looking to be on the high end of E.

Lurker vs Wraith

ZvZ: Wraith wins.  As discussed above...worse in a heads up a-move fight, but...a bit more range if the air armies are poking but not engaging.  Better at clearing out overlords.  Cloak is a threat if you retreat all your overlords.

ZvT: Lurker wins.  Wraith doesn't do much for zerg here; the one air unit that might be worth sniping (science vessel) detects them.  And just...generally worse into terran stuff (a lot worse vs turrets, worse vs marines).

ZvP: Probably Lurker win.  Wraiths are ok, because cloaking is an option, and observers can't keep up with corsairs, and wraiths are not bad at sniping observers themselves.  Also better than a muta if one wraith catches a shuttle.  That said...I don't think it outweighs the power of lurker contains, or having a lurker or two up the ramp making it very hard to attack lategame.

PvT: Not sure.  Would lurkers do a lot in this matchup?  No.  Would they do something?  Probably yeah.  Punish zealots that get on top of tanks.  Force protoss ground armies to back off if the observer is sniped by goliaths.  But on the other hand, they're more gas expensive than a tank, die to every protoss gateway unit 1v1 if there's detection (need to splash or cloak), and terran self-splash like siege tank shots and mines hitting lurkers would be pretty bad.  But...still something else protoss would need to think about.  On the other hand, wraiths are not nothing in this matchup either--sniping reaver shuttles, and a small minority of pros like to go cloak wraiths against carriers and snipe the observer.  I don't know.

TvT: Wraith.  Wraith does quite a bit cause terran basically needs air against tanks, and it's also good against dropships.  I really don't think Lurker does anything here.

OK, that's roughly 2-2.

Battlecruiser vs Lurker

ZvZ: Don't think it matters, greater spire tech probably not happening.

ZvT: Lurker.  Splash always works under dark swarm, lurker's a lot like firebat, but...y'know, better.

ZvP: Leaning Lurker.  Maybe BCs do something here, but it's not immediately obvious to me what.

TvT: Battlecruiser.

TvP: Lurker probably does something.  BCs don't.

3-1.  Yeah, BCs don't move up.  They were not that far ahead of ultras anyhow.

OK, so new tier with Wraith, Lurker, and I guess I'm looking at Observer and Dropship.

Dropship vs Lurker I did recently, that was 2-2.

Observer vs Lurker I did recently, that was 2-2.

Wraith vs Observer

Would be the last comparison.

TvP: gets very complicated, maybe slight lean wraith.  Protoss doesn't just get to send an observer and sit it over the Terran production, so that's a lot worse.  Using observers to spot tank moveouts and hit them when they're unsieged would get worse without cloak.  But Wraiths are a big upgrade.  Think about the Scouts that Mini made in the previous ASL finals.  Now replace those with wraiths who deal the same ground damage, but are cheaper, less supply, build faster, move faster.  Pushes designed to punish carrier switches would be way weaker.  And...Reaver Drops would also be stronger and safer.  Guaranteed no wraith defence; ground units can still defend, but wraith defence is a blowout.  I...think maybe this leans Wraith?

TvT: I think wraith.  Just...missing it is a missing piece in the rock paper scissors.  Observer to see everything coming out of their production is very nice, but if the opponent knows you can't go wraiths, do they need to scout at all?

TvZ: Basically doesn't matter.  (If it leans anything...maybe wraith again.  There are some wraith rushes.  Don't see what observers would do when terran is already fine on detection).

PvP: Maybe Observer?  Would it be worth building a wraith just to snipe reaver shuttles?  Like...Corsairs exist, have pretty similar air to air damage against singletarget, build faster, and don't get built for this in PvP.  Maybe being down the equivalent of like...three dragoons once you add in the cost of the stargate is just not what you want to do in a mirror matchup?

PvZ: I think observer?  Wraith being an option would change the matchup--Scout rushes are most common PvZ, cause zerg sometimes has no antiair protecting their drones super early in the game.  Wraiths build faster, move faster, have more range to outrange spores, deal the same ground damge despite being way cheaper.  Zerg would need to respect the first unit out of a stargate being a wraith.  However...that's still just a cheese, and a cheese that can be beaten by making hydras.  In a typical macro game, probably no wraiths get made--just worse corsairs against mutas and scourge, and then observers cloaking, observer upgrades like vision range and movement--these things matter in the matchup.

OK, so 2-2, or maybe a slight 3-2 wraith.

Yeah, so that's a lot of 2-2 type scores, I think the tier split is justified.

Anything else that should slot into the new tier?

Hmm...what about Archons?

Observer vs Archon

would protoss rather not be allowed to merge archons after using storm, or have their observers not cloak, and not have any move upgrades or vision upgrades?  I think the observer loss hurts more there, probably in all three matchups.  So...no need to move Archons I think.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver (maybe on the high end of tier)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 14, 2022, 09:35:58 AM
Some additional ultra testing.

Equal cost dragoons and ultras a-moved into each other with no micro, dragoons win.  (Like 20% of the dragoons left, a close fight).

Equal cost goliaths and ultras a-moved into each other, ultras win.

Equal cost DTs and ultras a-moved into each other (with detection), Ultras barely win.

Couldn't test siege tanks (the AI always sieged them up) but unsieged tanks if they stand still and fight with no micro should be about as good as an equivalent number of dragoons, while costing more.  So...ultras are cost-efficient against un-microed un-sieged tanks which just a-move towards them.

All this together means...I'm probably underselling ultras as drop fodder in TvT.  When they get dropped in melee range against immobile targets, they are going to be better than tanks and goliaths at standing in melee and hitting.  (Worse than dragoons for being dropped on top of tanks, but nonetheless worth building in the matchup).

Don't think this changes their tier, but maybe makes them a little more solidly in the tier.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 15, 2022, 09:32:10 AM
Fairy Chess

Y'know, the game designer in me always kinda wanted to invent new chess peices, and got sad when nobody wanted to play with those pieces.  Turns out an awful lot of pieces have been invented (and many played in historical versions of chess).

There's actually a fuckton of these, but I'll go over the ones famous enough to have wikipedia pages.

The Amazon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(chess))

Can move the same as a queen or a knight.  Piece is super busted. 

Estimated material value...11.5 to 14.

Empress (or Chancellor) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empress_(chess))

This one can move like a rook or a knight.

Estimated material value...8-9.  (Usually 0.5 to 1 below a queen).

Some interesting commentary, though, is that this piece's value goes up a lot as the board opens up.  In endgame situations, some people like to promote to a Empress/Chancellor over a queen.

Princess (or Archbishop) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_(chess))

Can move like a knight or a bishop.  Technically capable of checkmating a king with the help of no other pieces if the king moves to the corner square.  (Although for the most part, better early in the game rather than in endgames, doesn't really have a way to force the king into the corner)

Estimated material value...7.7-8.75

I'm actually super interested in the material value here, cause it's typically seen as almost as good as an Empress/Chancellor, and not even that far behind a Queen.  And considerably more than a Knight plus a Bishop.  The synergy between the diagonals and the knight moves is pretty big here.  Covering a ton of the 2x2 square around the piece, and enabling it to move between light squares and dark squares (one of the key things that makes bishops worse than rooks--only being able to reach half the squares on the board).

The other interesting thing is that the piece valuation of a weakened princess (The Leopard--same piece, but the bishop movement has a maximum movement of 2) was determined by computer simulation to be barely worse than a princess (computer simulation had 7.7 pawns for the princess, and 6.7 pawns for the leopard).

The Alfil  (or elephant) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfil)

Old historic piece that jumps two spaces diagonally and nothing else.

Estimated Value...1.5

Yeah, this piece is pretty bad, unable to ever reach 75% of the squares on the board.

Camel (or Long Knight) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camel_(chess))

Historic piece that jumped 3 up 1 left.

Estimated Value...2

Similar to a Knight except...it's a bit like a bishop in that it can't leave the dark squares and...that brings the value down.

Dabbaba (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabbaba_(chess))

Another historic piece.  Jumped 2 spaces horizontally or vertically.

Estimated value...1.5

Just like the diagonal jumper...75% of the board is literally unreachable for this piece, worth about the same value.

Ferz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferz)

A historic piece that was later replaced by the queen (what an upgrade lol).  Could move one space diagonally only.

Estimated value...1.5

Moves really slowly and awkwardly, but at least it can reach...half the board.

Mann (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_(chess))

Literally just moves like a king without actually being a king (can't castle, losing it does not lose the game).

Estimated value...3

Thought to be worth a little less than a Knight early in the game, because developing it is slow and awkward, but worth a little more than a Knight in endgames.

Nightrider (also sometimes called knightmare or unicorn) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nightrider_(chess))

So...this is a knight that can just keep moving in a straight line, as long as that straight line is made up of the same Knight move.

Estimated value...5

I find it very hard to look at a chess board and see how to move this piece to set up checkmates.  Like...taking a step that's 2 knight moves away, in order to block a square that's 3 knight moves away from the square you just moved to...I can count out the spaces, and confirm that the moves work, but...wow, my brain does not visualize that.  Maybe it would get easier with practice.

Wazir (or Vazir) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wazir_(chess))

Can move one space horizontally or vertically

Estimated value...1-1.5

Despite being by far the slowest piece (slower than the Ferz) at least it can reach every square.  Worse than these other low value units early on since it develops so slow, but goes up in value as the game progresses.

Zebra (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zebra_(chess))

Historic piece going back as far as the 13th century.  Jumps one space horizontally and two spaces diagonally.

Estimated value...1.75

Despite the fact that it doesn't have the problem of the Camel where the Camel is restricted to one colour, nonetheless considered worse than a Camel, cause it actually just moves too far for an 8x8 board.  Some theorize it'd be worth about the same as a Knight on a 10x10 board.

As a component of other pieces (like the amalgam pieces such as princess) it's considered to add about as much value to the piece as a knight.

---

Modern versions of fairy pieces mostly seem to aim for pretty good pieces (like...typically somewhere between a rook and a queen in value).

A couple examples from one variant (musketeer chess)

https://musketeerchess.net/p/games/musketeer/rules/rules-short.php

Other than just some historic strong pieces (Princess, Empress, Amazon...which they chose to use the name of Archbishop, Chancellor, and Dragon)

A couple examples of pieces they have...

"unicorn" (Knight+Camel, so 1 to the side, and 2 or 3 in the other direction).

"elephant" (Jumps 1 or 2 horizontally, vertically, or diagonally)

"hawk" (Jumps 2 or 3 horizontally, vertically, or diagonally)

"Leopard" (toned down princess.  2 move bishop + knight)

"Spider" (2 move bishop + knight + Dabbaba a.k.a. can also jump 2 horizontally/vertically).

Plus a few other pieces that I like the design of less as they move asymmetrically.

Values of these new pieces (according to their own website) range from 5.5-8.15.  These...do appeal to me (in the way a lot of older pieces do not--not hugely excited about the old historical pieces that are worse than a king).  Although...I can't help but feel the number of pieces they're adding is a bit inflated just to sell product.

---

Anyway, Amazon, by most reports, is so powerful it's not actually fun to play with.

...But a few of these other medium-high pieces I would be interested in experimenting with.  The historical Princess and Empress look pretty neat.  The musketeer pieces that aren't historical...vary--I feel like they have more pieces than they need just to sell more product.  But at very least their "unicorn" and "hawk" designs are pretty neat.  Does capture the idea of an upgraded knight (while also each being different from each other).  And sure...I could see the logic behind mixing in one of the powerful 2 move pieces (between "Leopard"/"Elephant"/"Spider").

Actually, I'm kind of surprised they don't have a piece that's just "jump to any square that's 2 spaces away".  (In terms of combining old pieces, that would be Knight+Dabbaba+Alfil).  Just seems like an easier to explain version of a 2 moving power piece.  Seems like a bunch of these pieces control 16 squares, so that should fit right in the power band.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 15, 2022, 10:43:16 PM
More fairy chess ideas

Hm, now I'm wondering how good a colourblind piece would need to be to be on the level of "in between Rook and Queen in power"

Like...start with Bishop, add on Camel (1-3 jumper).  How good is that?  As good as a rook yet?  What if we add the ability to jump two spaces to the side? (Bishop + camel + Dabbaba).

Or...maybe a simpler way to describe this combination would be "can jump to any square within 3 tiles as long as it's the same colour."

Number of squares covered is pretty high (4 squares for 1 away, 8 squares for 2 away, 12 squares for 3 away) so 24 squares covered--higher than the more typical 16 for the non-colourblind pieces.  Also substantially more than a bishop, even one in a really good spot (tends to cap out around 13 squares controlled).  But queen is also capable of controlling...actually over 24 squares (in the center of the board...up to 27; 24 squares within 3 of her, and 3 more that are 4 away).

Colourblindess in general seems to cut piece value by about 2/3.  Like...Camel is worth 2/3 of a knight.  Bishop is worth about 2/3 of a rook.  So...controlling a similar number of squares to the queen, but being colourblind...maybe puts this around a value of....6-7?  (As a guess, not backed up by engine analysis).  Compared to a queen, among the squares within 3 of the piece, it trades 8 possible rook moves for 8 possible camel moves.

Although...maybe there's too many jumpers at this point, and this should back off on the jumping and just be bishop + camel + dabbaba.  Probably a mild downgrade, but should still be hitting the right value target (slightly better than a rook).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 16, 2022, 01:22:57 AM
Hmm, maybe I'm crazy, but I could have sworn that the "classic" elephant / alfill could move one or two spaces diagonally; jumping was optional.  That Wikipedia graph seems to show the jump as mandatory, but that makes me want to verify this.  (Weirdly enough, I was editing the Wikipedia article on chess pieces just a month ago...  https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chess_piece&action=history if curious.  Mostly sticking the Metropolitan Museum's collection of Really Old Chess Pieces they have on display at the Cloisters up in there for the historical examples.)  Ah well, sounds like an excuse to go read one of those history of chess books I've been meaning to get to.  (EDIT: Hmm, checking the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairy_chess_piece list, that's apparently called "Elephant (modern)", which might explain it.)

I'm a little surprised that there isn't more support online for "classic chess" that uses elephants & ferz / viziers rather than bishops & queens for the 11th century chess experience.  Like, you can still play WarCraft II these days if you really want, even if it's more dated than StarCraft...  I'm kinda curious how it would go.

The Mann has some alternate names, and I can certainly see why, as Mann is quite possibly the most boring title possible for a chess piece.  Uh oh guys watch out, my undifferentiated man is coming for you. "Sage" is definitely way cooler.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 16, 2022, 05:28:04 AM
Yeah, the one thing I'm noticing is that there is absolutely no consistency whatsoever to chess piece naming.  Like...nearly every variant I look up will have something called an "Elephant" but I've yet to see two elephants that do the same thing.

There's a ton of different names for the same piece too.  (Like there's at least three names for the Rook+Knight combo).

And yeah, I agree Mann is a pretty boring name for what is actually a pretty cool piece, and has had several names.  (Seems to have also gone by Guard, Archer, Chariot, and Commoner).  I think there's good reason to design more pieces in this power band too.  Like...having similar value pieces makes trades really interesting.  Trading a Knight for a Bishop is interesting, cause it creates some asymmetry while being a roughly equal value trade.  Mann or guard or chariot or whatever being another piece that's worth about the same amount as those pieces is interesting.

Anyway...the only pieces I've found with any kind of consistency in naming seem to be the really old weak pieces...

Alfil

Dabbaba

Ferz

Camel

Wazir

Zebra

...partially cause nobody is in a hurry to reinvent these pieces, and partially cause a lot of Fairy chess pieces can be described as amalgamations of some of these so they get used in notation.

To the point that they actually have letter abbreviations (To go along with the K,Q,N,B,R,P notations)

1 square abbreviations

2 square abbreviations

3 square abbreviations

Not sure why neither of the newly made up pieces starting with T got a T abbreviation.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 16, 2022, 08:50:07 AM
I guess an obvious thing to do is just...with the standard notation, like WF representing King movement, well...this is just binary.

How many possible pieces are there with 1-2 total movement and this notation?  Well, 5 binary options here so 2^5 = 32.

How many possible pieces are there with 1-2 total movement that cover 8 total squares (much like Knight, King, etc).  These would potentially (though not all--not if colourblind) be worth around the same as bishop/knight.

N: Knight
WF: King
WD: 2 move rook (with jumping)
FA: 2 move bishop (with jumping--colourblind obviously).
FD: Move 1 space diagonally, or jump 2 spaces horizontally (diamond shape--also colourblind).
WA: Move 1 space horizontally, or jump 2 spaces diagonally (hard to even describe the shape--small star with sparkles?)
DA: jump 2 spaces horizontally or vertically (exploded king movement--another colourblind piece)

Probably the colourblind ones are worth about 2 (maybe?) and the non-colourblind ones are worth 3 (about the same as a knight).  Although...WA intrigues me--my intuition says it might be a little better, and I'm not quite sure why I'm coming to that conclusion.  Micro adjustment while also having a lot of reach just sounds kinda good?  Not sure, I might be wrong.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 16, 2022, 11:56:54 PM
OK, so...what makes a piece good--generally speaking a mixture of:

* Number of squares covered
* Not colourblind
* Doesn't develop slowly (the non-king kings like mann/guard/chariott/whatever has a bit of this problem)
* Good at checkmating by having a lot of threat tiles together (this is one area where mann/guard/chariott is quite good).

So...why do I think WA might be good?  Well, it's not colourblind and develops pretty fast, not a great piece for checkmating, that's unfortunate I suppose, but...specifically look at how quickly it can reach various squares.

First, for comparison, the knight:

32323234
23232323
34121432
21232123
32303232
21232123
34121432
23232323

0 obviously is where the knight starts, and the numbers in the grid are how long it takes to get to various other spaces.

Now the same movement table but WA for comparison:

33323332
32333233
21222123
32212233
32101232
32212233
21222123
32333233

You'll notice the average number of moves to reach a square is a little bit lower.  Just taking the raw numbers, for a knight 2.37 moves.  For a WA 2.28 moves.

Also, generally speaking, if anything, your space will be a little bit more restricted than the full chess board.  If we look at just all the squares within 2 spaces of the pieces, WA can get to all of them in 1.6 moves on average.  Knight takes 2.08 moves on average.  But it actually gets a little worse--that's if I just take those 5x5 boxes immediately surrounding the pieces in the two grids above...but what if I actually confine them to 5x5 boxes so the knight can't actually go outside the box to route to where it wants to go?  Now Knight averages 2.4, and WA averages 1.6 still.

Still not a super powerful piece or anything, but I suspect it's noticeably more valuable than a knight.  Probably like...3.5 instead of 3?  Something like that?  Probably still closer to a Knight than a Rook, so less than 4, but basically a knight that has an easier time ending up where they want to go, so slightly better knight?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 17, 2022, 04:34:45 AM
OK, well it occurs to me that every 8 space piece that doesn't suck so far is either a Knight, or has Wazir in it.

* N - Knight
* WF - Mann/Chariott/Guard (moves like king).  Weak early on cause it's slow to develop, but good at checkmating so worth about the same as these pieces
* WD - mini-2 move rook that can jump.  Probably about as good as Knight and Mann/Chariott/Guard.  In between N and WF in most things I think--better at checkmating than N, but develops slower.  Faster at developing than WF, but not as good at developing.
* WA - Discussed above--I suspect strongest of these combos.  Just...surprisingly good at getting anywhere on the map.

W being in all these pieces isn't a coincidence.  F, D, and A are all colourblind, so FA, FD, and AD are all also colourblind.

We could look to 3 move pieces to try and get more Knight-ish level pieces.  My gut says this isn't going to work out too well, but let's see what we can do.

First of all, Camel and Zebra are already 8 squares, and already both known to be worse than a knight.

The diagonal 3 move jumper (Tripper) denoted by G...is colourblind, so it can really only combo with W.

* WG (1 horizontal, or jump 3 diagonal) is...probably useable, though I suspect  worse than WA and worse than a Knight.  (Knight takes an average of 2.38 moves to reach an average square on the board, WA is 2.28, WG is 2.48).

All other non-colourblind pieces will need to use the threeleaper (abbreviated by H) to fix colourblindess if they're not using W.

* HG (jump 3 horizontal or 3 diagonal) sucks.  You are confined to squares that are 3 spaces apart, so like even though you can "change colours", you're actually 9x colourblind.

* HF (jump 3 horizontal or 1 diagonal) Sounds bad, but I can't quite put my finger on why.  OK, probably diagram time again.

43242343
23313324
32222233
32131232
12303214
32131232
32222233
23313324

Wow, ok, I was wrong, that is way better than I expected.  I knew from a bit of mental visualization that it was 3 moves to get to adjacent squares.  But I failed to calculate just how many nearby squares were accessible in a couple of moves.  This is actually fine.  2.42 for average number of moves to reach any given square on the map--slightly more than the Knight's 2.38, but still looks very functional.

* HA (jump 3 horizontal or 2 diagonal) This to me sounds like a rotated knight, except all jump points are a tiny bit further away.  Moving 3 in one direction is a bit further than moving 2 up 1 to the side.  Moving 2 up 2 to the side is a bit further than moving 2 up 1 to the side.  Probably a little bit worse but...the real question is whether it's zebra levels of bad, where you need to take 6 moves to reach certain squares on the chessboard?  Or just a bit worse than the knight?

33323332
24414423
41242143
42333243
14303412
42333243
41242143
24414423

Oof, that's...yeah, that's...well it's not zeebra level bad (every square is reachable within 4 moves, zeebra has some 6s) but that is...pretty bad compared to pieces like Knight and WA and HF and WG.  While the average moves to reach a square for most of the others was within 0.1 of Knight (ranging from 2.28 to 2.48) this is in a different ballpark--2.78.  Possible I've made some mistakes here (Making the tables by hand cause I'm still just messing around, and spreadsheets don't seem well built for this--could write code for this I guess).

* HW is another rook variant.  (Rook that can move 1 or jump 3 spaces).  HD is yet another rook variant.  (Rook that can jump 2-3 spaces).  These are probably fine power level wise, but like...if I'm envisioning a chess variant where you draft pieces, is it actually worth having both of these as options alongside WD?  I mean, they're all slightly different, but that's a lot of mini-rook variants.

Hmm...which rook variant is better?

I'm guessing WD due to the overall trend of short moves being better.  You might think "but it will develop so slow" but actually from a central square, all three rook variants take about the same average moves to get to any given square (2.5 on average--specifically 2.5 for WD, 2.5 for WH, and 2.53 for DH).  WD is only struggling with mobility if you need to go between opposite corners.  And...I suspect it's a little bit better at hunting checkmates (having 2 adjacent threat squares is important.  HD also has two adjacent threat squares...but it lacks W so if the king side steps it can't match the side step).

I think WD might also be the best at hunting pawns in an endgame.  Like...let me draw a diagram of what I'm thinking

P .  P
_ . _
R . _

OK, so mini-rook threatening pawn, pawn steps forward so that its buddy guards it.


_ .  P
P . _
R . _

Buuut this rook can jump, so this happens.

R . P
P . _
_ . _

Now the mini-rook is ready to grab the pawn on the right, or the pawn directly under it if that pawn advances and stops guarding its friend.

Granted, the 1/3 moving rook (WH) can do this same trick too, as long as it starts one extra square back.  But...lacks the 2 adjacent threat squares that are good for delivering checkmate.

So I mean, I think these are all fine, but I would lean towards picking WD.


---

So ok, if you want a draft of pieces that are worth about the same as a bishop/knight, I guess you can do something like...

* Bishop
* Knight
* WF (King clone: Mann/Chariot/Guard)
* WD (1-2 horizontal jump) ...or one of the other jumping mini-rooks.  I would probably pick WD as I suspect it's the strongest, but my analysis might be off.
* WA (1 horizontal 2 jump diagonal.  WG with the 3 jump diagonal is also an option if WA turns out to be game-breakingly strong, but...ehh while I'm guessing it's better than knight, bishop is also better than knight so whatever)
* HF (3 horizontal 1 diagonal.  Unexpectedly pretty solid).

---

There's probably some room to mix in some colourblind pieces too (beyond just bishop I mean).  I don't think 8 square colourblind pieces would be a good match for bishop, but 12 square colourblind pieces might be.  (Bishop in the middle of the map sees 12 squares).  The only tricky thing is that bishop lines can be blocked, and can very easily see less than 12 squares if they're not mid map, so not sure how to factor that in.  But...on the other hand, a really silly piece (GAF) which just picks all three diagonal movements--that's a jumping 3 move bishop, and I could see that being equal to a bishop.  Ability to jump: nice bonus.  Inability to see beyond 3 squares: notable downside.  Maybe even overall?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 17, 2022, 07:12:51 AM
Alright, colourblind pieces.

I don't know if any of these are going to be interesting enough to be worth including.

But okay, baseline, the jumping 3 move bishop, GAF, reaches every square of its colour in 2 moves if it starts from a central square.  Average moves 1.56 to reach a square it actually can reach. (Bishop from the same square is 1.53, but doesn't jump of course).  Obviously don't need both bishop and jumping bishop, that's just excessive.

What about the "move to any square within 2 of you that shares your colour".  So that would be FDA.  Same average moves to reach any square (1.56).  Is this piece...actually interesting, though?  2 move bishop that can also jump 2 forward?  Eh.  Still feels...pretty bishopy.  67% of its moves are diagonal moves.

OK, well, let's try the pieces that will feel the least like a bishop, so...I guess this starts with Camel, and adds in...Dabbaba, those are the only non-diagonal colourblind pieces.  CD then?  Or...I could also see CF, that also feels fairly natural (you end up with this sorta natual looking X wing looking shape):

CF:

11
1111
0
1111
11

And CD looks like this, which...doesn't feel as intuitive to me, sorta flower things that pop out in each direction:

11
1
11
101
11
1
11

Well...to start, camel on its own...reaching every allied colour square is like...2.06 on average.  Quite a bit more than 1.56.  CD hits the 1.56, every square reachable in 2 moves.

CF.......actually doesn't have this property!  1.69.  There's this funny parity thing, where you're always alternating between even and odd columns, so if you start on an even column, want to go to an odd column, and you can't get there in a single jump, you're forced into making 2 more jumps.

It's unfortunate, cause "I always hop to this other column" is part of what makes the CF movement look a little more intuitive and aesthetically pleasing to me, but...CD is the least bishop-like having no diagonal moves, and probably also the closest in power to a bishop, so that's two properties we were looking for.

I guess I should glance at Camel combined with the other possible diagonals...

CA which forms a sort of octagon shape is also 1.69.  Unsurprisingly longer jumps make it harder to reach every square.

CG is surprisingly, despite only containing the longest move lengths is...1.56...but ONLY if it's in the dead center of the board.  If it's one tile closer to the edge of the board it now really struggles to continue to move towards the edge of the board (1.84).  Can move towards the other side of the board no problem though.

But yeah, I think the obvious pick for a colourblind piece that will match the strength of a Bishop while ALSO feeling the least like a bishop is CD.  Jump either 2 horizontally, or in a 3-1 L.

So like...pieces worth roughly the same amount to draft from would look something like...

* Bishop
* Knight
* WF (King clone; Mann/Chariot/Guard)
* WD (Mini-rook that jumps 1-2 horizontal jump.  Other mini-rooks like WH or DH could be substituted in the draft)
* WA (1 horizontal 2 jump diagonal.  Other variations on this piece like WG could be substituted in the draft)
* HF (3 horizontal jump 1 diagonal).
* CD (2 jump horizontal, and 3+1 L jumps.  Other camel hybrid variants could sub in the draft like CF).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 17, 2022, 07:59:50 AM
This is a bit of a different angle to take the chess talk, but it is theorycrafting in that it probably won't happen...

...so people like to call Fire Emblem anime chess.  In Fire Emblem Fates, the two warring countries are Hoshido and Nohr, but they had much more direct and frankly weirder names in Japanese: "White Night Kingdom" and "Dark Night Kingdom" (or "Black Night Kingdom").  Hmm, that sounds awful chess-y already.  Why didn't IS release a Fates/If themed chess set?!  If they did, who would be what piece?

Well, one thing to address up front is that there's a bit of an asymmetry on the leaders.  Garon & Mikoto are...  well, Mikoto dies really quickly in Fates and isn't a playable character, and she's not even really Hoshidan.  Garon lives longer, but also the Nohrians eventually turn against him in all the routes, so he's also awkward.  Also, they don't match genders, which is a little awkward for heavily gendered pieces like King & Queen.  Maybe best to bench 'em in favor of the units that get controlled by players and match up.  Looks like we end up with:

King: Ryoma, Xander
Queen: Hinoka, Camilla (conveniently, both are fliers to explain high Queen movement)
Rook: Takumi, Elise?? (uh, Fujin Yumi movement + Elise horsieness?  I'll admit this isn't a strong flavor fit, it should be like Rinkah and Benny if we're emphasizing tough fortifications...  but Rooks are really mobile in chess, so having Benny zip around the board is weird.)
Bishop: Onmyoji Sakura, Leo (if we're emphasizing sage-iness, best skip the Priestess with a bow look for Sakura)
Knight: Kaze??, Silas (Hoshido doesn't really do traditional cavalry, and using a flyer instead seems wrong if we're running with flying = Queen, so eh, ninjas are in flavor.  Could also do Kaden / Keaton I guess for an offbeat interpretation.)
Pawn: Mozu, Charlotte.  (Both start small, and you can have a spare Kinshi Knight Mozus and Wyvern Lord Charlottes in the box for if they reach the 8th rank and promote to Queen.  Yeah, I know that Charlotte needs some help to promote to WL, but not that much, and it fits her using axes.)

As an additional bonus, the set could have thrown in the third kingdom at no extra manufacturing cost - Valla, the Invisible Night Kingdom, has invisible troops.  Really.  So just play half-blind chess where moves are announced but no pieces are on the board for one side if you want to play against Valla.  Let's see, we'd have something like...

King: Sumeragi
Queen: Mikoto
Rook: A giant Faceless or Stoneborn?
Bishop: Arete (+Replica)
Knight: Gunter (+Replica)
Pawn: Anthony (the Vallite villager!!1!)

Get on it, Intelligent Systems!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 17, 2022, 05:23:45 PM
It strikes me that I need better names than WA, HF, and CD if I want to show this to anyone else, so like...

* Bishop
* Knight
* Guard (WF King that isn't royal and can't castle)
* Mini Rook (WD--jump 1 or 2 horizontal)
* Square Mini Queen (WA--move 1 horizontal or jump 2 diagonal)
* Diamond Mini Queen (HF--move 1 diagonal or jump 3 horizontal)
* Anti-bishop (CD--jumps to any square of the same colour within 3 spaces other than diagonal squares.  Jumps 2 horizontally, or does a 3+1 L)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 22, 2022, 08:08:05 AM
Starcraft.

So Soma vs Rush in ASL had a lot of lurkers, including successful running lurkers into the Terran's base and winning 3-0; notably game 1 was an actual lurker rush; game 2 and 3 got mutas first:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4Lc01IudLw

Worth noting he was kind-of doing off-meta cheesy stuff to catch his opponent off-guard, and nearly all of these were counterattacks when rush was too far out of position.  Don't know if I would conclude from this that Lurkers should move up a tier.  But after seeing the lurker rush builds a few times and seeing them fail, well here's some that succeeded.

EDIT:

something which I did not know, or probably knew at some point but forgot, Lurkers are medium; thought they were large.  Don't think this substantially changes much, but does make them a lot worse than I thought against vultures (two vultures with detection not clumping and getting hit by the same splash can take down one lurker just by attacking--one lurker costing more than 3 vultures of course.  For more embarrassing matchups against mech, one Goliath comes pretty close to beating a lurker solo, despite being a considerably cheaper unit.  I mean, granted, when it comes to the lurker you're paying for the cloak and the AoE damage, but still, thought they'd at least have a few heads up matchups where they looked a bit better).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 24, 2022, 05:35:56 AM
Fairy Chess:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tGhQPzcQw4

So some interesting "knight variants" here, including AI ratings for a bunch of them.  (Don't think the actual game was all that interesting; turns out 16 pieces beat 5 pieces, but the ratings are interesting).

Princess (Bishop+Knight): 10.32
Knight: 3.92
"Unicorn" (this is an Amazon, except can't capture with the queen moves, only with the knight moves): 10.96
Empress (Rook+Knight): 11.65
"Trojan Horse" (works like a Knight, but all pieces 1 space away can't attack): 4.61
"Berserker Knight" (Knight that can't move/attack backwards): 2.79

OK, to translate these into numbers I'm a little more familiar with (Knight worth more like 3.15) this would be Princess at 8.29, Empress at 9.36--I'd like to know where this engine puts queen, but I assume it's around 10.

The big surprises to me are as follows:

The "Unicorn" piece that can just move (but not capture) like a queen, only capture like a knight is worth more than a Princess, almost as much as an Empress.  What???  Like...yes, it's extremely mobile, but it controls so few squares relative to pieces of that caliber.  I don't know how good this AI is, looks like not very good, but it didn't actually manage to capture any pieces with the "Unicorn".  Is the extra mobility really worth controlling fewer squares than the Princess?  Is the Princess, who can move like a bishop or a knight, non-colourblind piece that can nearly always move to more square than a rook, really so lacking in mobility in the first place?

The Trojan Horse being barely worth more than a Knight.  I dunno where to value that but...it looked...pretty good.  Like pawns and kings can literally never threaten it.  Looks like it can prevent other pieces from being taken just by moving near whatever piece is threatening to take (although I'm not for sure clear that's how the piece actually works; maybe it just prevents attacks on itself?)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 25, 2022, 07:09:39 AM
A new SC2 patch dropped a few weeks ago it seems.  Looks like they were trying to curb the amount of airtoss out there in ZvP and to a lesser extent TvP with Void Ray & Shield Battery nerfs.

I agree with your instincts about whatever valuing program being used being a tad sus.  I presume it was given the "normal" rankings to be seeded with, i.e. a Queen is 9?  OTOH, it gives a vanilla Knight 3.92, so maybe all the values are ~+33% higher.  The Unicorn piece seems clearly worse than a vanilla Queen (which it is after a 25% cut) although maybe needs to go even lower, Empress is about equivalent to a Queen, and Berserker Knight might be even worse than it looks (although with the price cut, sure, a little more than 2), since it's such a beyond trash piece if you haven't traded it off by endgame (which no human would want to let you do).  Trojan Horse might be 4.6 with normal valuations at least, no need for the "discount" there, or maybe even all the way to a 5 for a rook.  It seems like there'd be some really cheeky smothered mate plays since Trojan Horse can walk directly up to a line of pawns and checkmate a castled king, or at least restrict its movement.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 26, 2022, 03:36:52 AM
Interesting piece I hadn't seen emphasized before (doesn't have its own wikipedia page) but seems to actually have some history behind it (first proposed in 1820 apparently...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUXTaAdlGLc

Knight+King move combination

Centaur (Unsurprisingly had a couple other names, Paladin, Judge, but for once there seems to be near consensus on the name Centaur).

Given a piece evaluation of approximately 6 in this video, and that...yeah, that's not an overly surprising result.  Combine a knight (worth about 3) with a king/mann/guard/chariot (worth about 3) with neither one super covering any big weakness of the other, and well, 3+3 = 6, sure.

Reminds me a bit of a piece from Musketeer chess.  Basically a 2 move jumping queen (or in primitives...W+F+D+A), which they calculated to be worth about 6.3 (they also calculated knights to be worth 3.15, so basically double the value of a knight for the piece that covers double the squares).

---

Weird assymetric piece that's slightly better

The one interesting thing to note is that Musketeer has one other piece which is...similar but not made out of primitives at all (which they call "cannon"), and that one, despite covering the same number of squares, is actually worth a full point more (like 7 instead of 6) according to their own computer simulations (https://musketeerchess.net/site/musketeer-chess-relative-piece-value/).

The piece moves like this:

1
11111
11C11
11111
1

Basically it can move to any space within 2 of it horizontally, as long as it's within 1 vertically.  But...can also jump 2 vertically.  To sort-of break this into primitives, it moves like a king, like a dababba (jump 2 squares in a straight direction) and like...half of a knight (can only jump 2 horizontal 1 vertical; can not jump 1 horizontal 2 vertical).

This piece being worth a full pawn more according to computer simulation (despite covering the same number of squares as pieces like Centaur and the jumping 2 move queen W+F+D+A)

One theory they state is that it might be worth more cause it can checkmate a king solo without the help of any piece (just bully the king to the right or left wall).  Having a clump of 6 threat squares together (including 3 of which where the king cannot hit back) while being able to match king movement is...very good.

---

Centaur vs 2 move jumping queen

This made me wonder if there would be a meaningful difference between Centuar (King+Knight) vs 2 move jumping queen (King + Dabbaba + Alfil).  Is King+Knight maybe a little more compact and thus a bit better?  Well...if we can trust all these rating numbers, apparently not.

And...I guess I can rationalize that.  Neither of these can checkmate solo--they need a different piece to cover the holes in their 2 move threat space, or another piece to cover them as they go in to 1 distance.  Neither one is really that much more compact than the other--average distance away that movement square options are actually the same for the Centaur and 2 move jumping queen.

---

Another weird asymmetric piece

I guess as long as I'm discussing one of musketeer chess' asymmetric pieces, I might as well mention the other--"Fortress".

Pretty comparable to Princess (Knight+Bishop), except half the knight jumps are replaced with dababba jumps (jump 2 in a single direction).  The half of knight jumps allowed this time are vertical rather than horizontal (2 vertical 1 horizontal).  But for an extra restriction can only slide 3 diagonally instead of any distance.

Anyway, ends up worth basically the same as a princess (7.6 so fractionally less than 7.7 they have for princess).  I assume that with full diagonal movement (instead of diagonal movement capping at 3) this piece would be slightly ahead?

So yeah...seems like breaking movement symmetry to get more threat squares clustered close together makes a piece slightly stronger.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 26, 2022, 04:52:41 AM
So...I guess with King+Knight, being out there, are there other king+X combos worth looking into?

Well....kinda.  Both Bishop and Rook already have some of those squares, so they don't necessarily gain a ton, but...bishop loses colourblindness, and Rook was already a pretty strong piece.

Bishop+King (Crowned Bishop, Dragon Horse, Missionary)

Is the same thing as Bishop+Wazir, so a bishop that cures its colourblindness with Wazir movement.  But...also has 4 more threat squares that are good for checkmating (if another piece covers it).

---

Rook+King (Crowned Rook, Dragon King, Sailor, Admiral, SuperRook)

Same thing as Rook+Ferz.

Evaluation...hmmm...

Both of these are pieces in the Japanese Shogi (Dragon Horse and Dragon King) and promote from that game's bishop and rook, so we can look to that game for piece evaluation hints.  Looks like promoted bishop being worth more than unpromoted rook is mostly agreed upon (ok, cool matches my intuition.  Covers more squares than a rook and not colourblind.  How much higher it's rated varies by who's rating.  A few people put them the same, although...Shogi is not chess).  Promoted rook being above promoted bishop is pretty universal too, usually about 10% but sometimes as much as 20% more points.

The other thing to look at too is Knight mixed pieces.  Rook+Knight is worth about a pawn more than Bishop+Knight under...most evaluations.  So...it would make sense if Rook+King was maybe a pawn higher than Bishop+King.  Also expecting both of these to be a step below their Knight combos, of course since they gain less squares

So Rook+King (promoted rook)...maybe 7?

Bishop+King (promoted bishop)...maybe 6?

These are very much guesses, though--the only real data coming from a different game with a much larger board (Shogi) and everything else being guesswork based on other amalgamated pieces.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 26, 2022, 06:53:01 PM
Actually, one last one I find interesting from the computer generated Musketeer Chess rankings (https://musketeerchess.net/site/musketeer-chess-relative-piece-value/)

their "Leopard" (Knight + 2 move Bishop) is apparently worth about half a pawn more than their "Elephant" (2 move jumping queen).  (670 rating for the Leopard, 630 rating for the elephant).

Both cover the same number of squares (16).  Both are restricted to moving 2 squares max.  The "Leopard" doesn't even jump diagonally--can be blocked diagonally.

"Leopard" squares are actually slightly less close in general to the piece, so there goes that theory.

The one remaining theory that would explain both their weird asymmetrical piece "cannon" and their "leopard" it's just threat square clustering.  "Leopard" can technically solo-mate a king (if the king gets into a corner) because all the threat squares are together in a 4x4 box.  Don't think it can solo chase a king into the corner, but...still.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 01, 2022, 06:55:02 AM
JYJ vs Bisu:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76zZ5sFpmrI

Honestly, nothing too revolutionary here.

There were two games won in very earlygame--basically cheese.

Carriers continue to be the main thing that gets protoss to win PvT in games that go past the earlygame in ASL lately.  (One macro game with shuttle high templar--lost.  One macro game with arbiter recall--lost.  One macro game with carriers--win).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 04, 2022, 07:35:50 AM
Starcraft

Rain vs Soulkey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Pxsv6YOhOk&t=4740s

So I think most interesting thing here--in my previous analysis on archons I said that people don't really just take high templar who haven't stormed, and morph them into archons?  That actually happened in game 4 of this series, apparently not a new innovation or anything, just something that is done against heavy muta allins.

Another interesting thing is how heavy Rain is on dragoons basically every game.  And dragoons with a few storms look pretty much unstoppable; dragoons are only very mildly soft-countered by hydras, and a few storms can tip that balance.

The third thing that does jump out to me is just how many storms he landed on mutalisks--generally mutas are used to pick off high templar, and that certainly does happen in this series, but a combination of having a lot of dragoons around to punish diving and just landing storms on top of mutas makes it less impactful.

On the zerg end...most of these games got to Lurkers, that very consistently was the tech choice after ling hydra muta scourge.  But only one game out of 4 or so that got to that tech did zerg actually win after getting out lurkers, and even then the Lurkers were somewhat low impact--there was just a big hydra attack that managed to get a nice surround on some dragoons, and there happened to be 4 lurkers.  No lurker contain, no sniping observers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 04, 2022, 08:18:12 AM
Starcraft

OK, does any of this change my positioning of anything on the tier list?

Lurker (currently D-tier)--mmm...I mean, don't think so.  Protoss was already looking like its most core matchup, but given a choice about playing against protoss without hydras, or playing against protoss without lurkers, the choice still seems fairly obvious.

Archon (currently E tier): well, ok, so as a stand-alone merge immediately unit, I've still seen it in fewer ASL games than Scout (which I have a tier below it).  Between not being able to morph archons and having observers that don't cloak...pretty sure observers that don't cloak would hurt more in every one of these games (Observer being D tier).  Archon in E seems ok.

High Templar: don't even have them rated yet.

Dragoon (Currently A, but flagged as "low A"): So...maybe dragoon doesn't need the "low A" flag.  I think losing dragoons would hurt protoss more than losing zealots--hurt more against terran, hurt more against protoss, maybe hurt a little less against zerg, but...based on these games still hurt quite a bit.

Dragoon vs Vulture

PvP: Dragoon should win, I think? although vultures will fight pretty good for a while--only when we get to large armies that extra range, lower health to reaver shots, goons packing more army supply into a smaller area really push toss ahead.

PvT: Maybe slight vulture lean.  I mean...resource expenditures will be a mess.  Protoss gets all the mineral units (vulture zealot) terran gets all the gas units (dragoon tank).  Terran will have no mobility, though, no harassing vultures, and vultures are a big part of reaver drop defence, so they lose that too.  But on the other hand, if terran gets a big army across the map, not sure a protoss ground army really stops that.  I think carriers are the deciding point, though.  Use vultures, use stall tactics like laying mines, survive till carriers.

PvZ: Maybe dragoon.  Hard to say; vultures do not shoot mutas, and that is a very big deal.  Vultures are probably a little better against most of the ground units.  A bit better against hydras.  Lurkers...it's close (Lurkers are medium, so 75% damage from dragoons, 50% damage from Vultures, dragoons maybe very slightly better).  Although presumably vultures would build out of the robo, so big downside there too.

TvT: Probably vulture.  Assuming dragoon is a barracks unit, that's...really good for rushes--something to do with the barracks, but bad long-term--there's no mineral dump unit from the factory.

TvZ: Maybe dragoon for the reverse reason--would be a barracks unit.  Good complement for marines against lurkers and ultras.  Bad against dark swarm.

So...maybe 3-2 dragoon.

Yeah, and some of zealot being flagged as high might have come from "if you trade them to terran terran beats up zerg under dark swarm" but I've been re-thinking how units traded to terran will work under dark swarm for this list (dark swarm will stop or partially stop them, just like all zerg units get hit by irradiate).

Dragoon to unconditional A then?

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Dark Templar, Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 04, 2022, 08:55:37 AM
Meanwhile, since splitting C tier into a C and D tier, I've been wondering about dark templar, squinting at them in C and thinking "is that right, though?"  I believe one of the comparisons I used to slot them into C was observers, but those are D now.

DT vs Medic+Marine

TvZ: Medic+Marine win by a lot.

TvT: Might be a mild DT win; can walk up invisibly to a tank and hit.

TvP: Might be a mild DT win, but unclear.  Protoss already tends to need detection against terran cause of mines, so not sure how much DT adds, although protoss losing DT is big.  Assuming terran gets enough to defend a rush (something minor to build out of a barracks that makes them not die I guess) losing marine is pretty minor...but because of gas stealing not irrelevant--sometimes it's correct if you really get denied gas to get a second barracks, throw down an academy, and do a 2 base marine medic attack; seen that a few times this season of ASL.

PvZ: Medic+Marine win.

PvP: DT win, but it's mild.  Don't want to make medic+marine against reaver+goon.

So I mean, 3-2, but the 3s tend to be very mild, and the 2s tend to be big.

Dark Templar vs Hydra

PvZ: Hydra wins

PvP: Probably Hydra.  Maybe they drop off once reavers are out, but should kinda beat dragoons before then.

PvT: Maybe DT?  In the long run, you want dragoons over hydras I think, so maybe some timing attacks with hydras, but I don't have a lot of faith in those since hydras also need uprages.

TvZ: Hydra.  Don't think DT does very much when terran always gets turrets and science vessels.  But hydra kinda important against Battlecruiser, and seems to be a popular tech option against some off-meta stuff like wraith rushes and goliath openings.

ZvZ: does not matter.

3-1 hydra.

OK, what about D-tier units?

DT vs Lurker

PvP: DT should win.  Lurkers don't do much vs mass goons, and have a harder time cheesing wins.

PvT: DT, just all around better vs terran mech.

PvZ: Lurker.  Lurker contains are important.  Lurkers up ramps stop zealot runbys.  Don't think DTs can quite fill the same role.

ZvZ: doesn't matter

ZvT: Lurker.  You aren't going to walk up with a melee unit like DT into marine+science vessel armies.

2-2, so matching D-tier okay so far.

DT vs Wraith

PvP: Probably a mild DT lean.  Wraith could be good for denying shuttle drops, but...gotta ask yourself, since protoss already doesn't make corsairs to shut down shuttle drops, why would they make Wraiths?  Realistically you just don't want to invest into stargate in this matchup.

PvT: Maybe mild wraith lean?  Both sides are sad.  Terran has more use for Wraith than DT in this matchup. I think this does add a lot of predictability for protoss, though.  You know you can reaver drop, and that they can't hard counter it with a wraith.  You know you can Carrier transition, and Wraith can actually help you here, the same way Mini used scouts against Terran in the finals, but actually just a better unit instead.

PvZ: Probably DT lean?  Not really seeing what Wraith would do in this matchup.

TvT: Complicated, not sure.  Wraiths definitely have a place in TvT, but DTs would too.

TvZ: Maybe Wraiths?  There are wraith builds to snipe overlords.  Don't know what you'd do with DTs without wraiths to snipe overlords.

OK, sure, DT to D-tier.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 07, 2022, 07:32:45 AM
Starcraft

Bisu vs Light:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkcsCsYvhjQ

So the one real neat thing here is corsairs against terran.  Game 4, Light responds to carriers with wraiths.  Bisu sniffs it out, and makes lots of observers and a few corsairs.

One interesting push that went one-base bio with medics after falling super far behind in the earlygame, and ran into dark templar which immediately ended the push, so that's another tool besides reaver that can shut down bio.

Otherwise, more of what I expect to see in this matchup.  Other than early cheese games, in ASL lately seems like protoss going Carrier wins, and protoss not going carrier loses.  One carrier loss where Protoss just lost something like 10 dragoons to spider mines, and couldn't hold the push.  (Push showed up when he had like 1 interceptor--10 more dragoons probably holds off that push).  But the conclusion that carriers are the way to play this matchup past the earlygame still feels more or less correct.

---

One note from the commentators that I have double checked again is incorrect from in-game testing--Tasteless makes the claim that Valkyries destroy Corsairs.  This is not true--I've run the test of 3 corsairs vs 2 valkyries (equal cost, equal supply) corsairs narrowly win.  I've run the test of 6 corsairs vs 4 valkyries (equal cost, equal supply) corsairs narrowly win.

I believe this rumor came from the idea that Valkyries have 2 armour, and Corsairs spam 5 damage attacks, so their 5 damage is reduced to 3 damage, 60% of their normal damage.   And that's fine and all, but...Corsairs also have 1 armour, lowering Valkyrie damage from 6 to 5, and then they're medium so that 5 becomes 5*0.75 = 3.75.  So...Valkyries are dealing 62.5% damage back (to the corsair's hulls, full damage to corsair shields).  And just...for a unit that costs 50% more, Valkyrie numbers are not a lot higher than Corsair numbers.  180 health on Corsairs to 200 on Valks.  14.9 DPS on Corsairs vs 17.9 DPS on Valks.

All in all, a valkyrie takes...13 hits to get through the shields, and 27 hits to get through the body; 40 hits total to kill a Corsair.  Corsair takes 66 hits total to kill a Valkyrie.  And like...bear in mind, that if you have a unit with twice the cost, it needs to take 300% the time to be killed to be cost neutral in a 2v1.  This is like 165% time to be killed for 150% cost/supply, so...yeah, not great.  It's more complicated cause there's splash damage involved, possibly with high enough numbers, like maxed out on valkyries vs maxed out on corsairs, maybe valkyries win that?  But what is the game scenario where you get more than 6 corsairs vs 4 valkyries?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2022, 04:33:36 AM
starcraft

rain vs soma

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCf040jYjGE

One game (game 3) that actually got into super lategame, with hivetech, cracklings, a couple defilers built, although I only saw one dark swarm and don't think I saw a relevant plague.  So ok, a defiler spotting, very rare in this matchup for ASL--games usually don't get that late.  But...they didn't do much.

I suppose the interesting note is that there was maybe a little more emphasis on Lurkers than perhaps typical for an ASL--lurker tech basically every game; no raw hydra bust.  Hydras still looking like the most important component of the army vs protoss, but Lurkers in this series looking not far behind.  Looking a bit more like Dragoon+Zealot vs terran mech--Dragoon is the most important component, but zealot not far behind.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 09, 2022, 07:05:21 AM
OK, there's one spellcaster up there right now.

Defiler--going by both Tasteless and Artosis' list, defiler would be higher than science vessel for sure, possibly S tier.  I...think there's some merit for it being very high just because of the strategies it shuts down.  Like...protoss can't go carriers against zerg, defilers are too effective against that.  Which...makes it similar to reavers maybe--not the most built unit outside of one matchup, but the mere fact that it exists just changes the game.

Reaver vs Defiler

ZvZ: unchanged

ZvT: Quite...possibly a mild reaver win, actually?  You can't make bio against reavers, which forces terran into mech, which forces terran into mass goliaths or they'll just die to mutas.  But pure goliaths are bad against reavers.  I'm...not 100% sure, though--the overlord drop and speed upgrades are both locked behind lair, and take longer to research than a spire takes to build, so reaver is hitting really late, maybe that's enough time to set up defences.  But...if the terran isn't dead from the combined stress of defending against reavers and defending against muta ling, they probably win in the ultra lategame.  Mutas eventually have a shelflife, enough valkyries and/or science vessels and the Zerg will need to switch tech.  And once zerg is off of mutas, it becomes something like vulture tank battlecruiser where reavers are pretty bad. and defilers would be nice.

ZvP: Thinking defiler?  Can you live without reavers?  Yeah, sure looks like it.  They are considered good in the super lategame.  Does taking away defiler do anything?  Yeah, makes carriers viable; carriers, backed up by corsairs to deny scourge just sound rough.  Does defiler do anything for protoss?  Also yes--plague is good.  Dark swarm can punish an army that is too hydra heavy.

PvP: Reaver, I think?  Defiler is potentially devastating to the almost pure dragoon armies, but...reaver is just out way earlier on the tech tree.  Like...38s for cybernetic core, 50s for robo, 19s for robo support bay, 44s to build a reaver.  About 150s after the first building to get a reaver out.  Compare to 63s for lair, 38s for queen's nest, 75s for hive, 38s for defiler mound, 63s to research consume cause the defilers won't do anything before that research is done.  About 280s until defilers are relevant.  I think the closest parallel would be like...getting out an arbiter.  Defilers on the protoss tech tree probably need an arbiter tribunal or...even that's not really equivalent research.  Probably add another layer to the tech tree--like after the templar archives you build the defiler mound, but it takes 100s to build or something.  Anyway--it's a 2 minute window where the reaver player should just get a substantial advantage, and even if they turtle hard enough to get dark swarm, reavers kill under dark swarm so it's not the end of the world.

PvT: Huh, defilers I think?  Complicated.  So...bio becomes a real build for terran, presumably with tank support.  But on the flip side, the protoss can get to defilers, and that kinda sucks for terran.  If you go mech, dark swarms on the dragoons and high templars sucks for terran; can't pick off the important units.  Dark swarm on the tanks and running zealots there is also probably bad for terran.  If you go bio, storm can definitely fight your army, but shuttles dropping zealots on tanks won't work, and carrier switches will be hard to justify cause the terran will be starting with so much anti-air.  And...dark swarm is still going to be a problem long term.

So...ok, this seems to be 2-2?  Let's try a different one.

Defiler vs Vulture

ZvZ: lean Vullture.  Not sure exactly what tech they would require--maybe just a hydra den?  They come out pretty early.  But the aggro builds with vultures would be real.  Can't make a perfect line of zerglings at the top of a ramp and expect to be safe.  A single vulture getting in could kill a lot of drones and lings, especially without ling speed.  If the game goes to mutas, I think vulture production stops, but they're not nothing.

ZvT: Lean vulture?  Ok, so as I dreamt up a few posts back, defiler traded to terran does something actually useful for terran--so dark swarm is like "melee units can't deal damage under this" instead of the other way around.  The problem is mass vulture kinda destroys mass bio and they're a ranged unit, and way, way earlier than defilers, so mass marines just doesn't sound like an option.  This forces terran into mech, but mech without vultures too, so that's gross.  Mass siege tank and a defiler that stops melee units from damaging siege tank sounds very intimidating, until you realize that's a pure gas army with no mineral dump.

ZvP: Vulture.  I...yeah, just so good against protoss.

TvT: Vulture.  Ironically for this matchup specifically, Terran would prefer that defilers stop ranged attacks, then there'd be a solid argument for defilers to win the matchup, but I think getting to pick if you block melee or ranged by matchup is maybe a bit much.

TvP: Vulture.  Uh, yeah, take away the best unit against protoss?  Dark swarm to protect siege tanks against zealot attacks is nice and all, but...vultures already protect siege tanks way earlier in the game.  Defilers brick carriers, so that's nice, but terran doesn't really have an answer to zealots.

So uh...that's a 5-0 for vulture, interesting.  Might just be a fluke.

Defiler vs Dragoon

ZvZ: does not matter I think.  Has the same general weaknesses as hydras for this matchup--deal half damage to zerglings and mutas, require upgrades to not be total garbage.  Without any of dragoon's strengths--has high HP so dragoon armies don't just melt to AoE.

ZvP: Dragoon I'm fairly sure.  So like...you could tech to defiler to throw down dark swarm, turn off the hydras, and make this lurker vs zealot, but like...lurkers are ok with that matchup, and hydras can still snipe the observer.  Also, zerg could make dragoons instead of hydras, and probably would.  Better against psi storms, longer range, the range alone would be a problem for dragoon busts instead of hydra busts.

ZvT: Defiler by a mile.  I don't particularly imagine a good time to build dragoons in this matchup.  Like...sure, if terran goes mech you can.

PvP: Dragoon.  Like...yeah, defiler's not going to matter, the protoss with dragoons kills the protoss with whatever random nonsense they make instead.

PvT: Dragoon.  Defiler reaver zealot sounds great and all, but...are you fighting off masses of vultures with...reaver zealot?  Yeah, that sounds pretty ineffective.

So...3-1.  But the 1 win is a big win.

Still...let's try this against something in B-tier, I guess there is the obvious

Defiler vs Science Vessel

ZvZ: Lean Vessel.  It'll be hard to protect from scourge, slower than mutas and scourge, and probably won't come up every game, but is good enough against mutas to come up sometimes.

ZvT: Lean...vessel?  So...a lot of things happen.  Terran trades away their detector, gets a non-cloaking observer as a replacement.  Needs to produce those basically all game to deal with lurkers.  Terran trades away their best muta defence, now needs to produce Valkyries possibly all game.  Terran trades away arguably their best lurker killing unit, now needs to build something like siege tanks instead.  Zerg picks up science vessel, what does that do...irradiates Terran defilers, and I tried out irradiate just now against a group of clumped marines; seemed decent, killed all 12.  Marines don't seem to auto-run when they are hit by irradiate, so the player would need to be looking at the right spot at the right time.  What does defiler do for terran?  Well, stop melee attacks, so makes them immune to ling ultra.  But...I mean, zerg has enough ranged options that I don't think they just die to terran dark swarm; maybe forces some uncomfortable tech like hydra.  Whereas terran going valkyrie dying to mass muta?  Yep, seen that happen.

ZvP: Lean...vessel.  I know defilers can get built super lategame, but EMP blanking storm is probably relevant way sooner.

TvT: Breaking my own rule slightly here and saying defiler.  So...this is another case of "changing what dark swarm does actually screws the move out of TvT relevance."  Let's just say defiler anyway since vessels pretty low impact here.

TvP: Defiler.  Plague is excellent anti carrier, and also excellent anti ground army, and modified dark swarm helps.  Maybe arbiter recalls become more of a problem, but not by much--emp isn't great recall defence, recalls still happen, and terrans can still win when they do.

So...3-2 defiler, with a bit of cheating to make that 2 possible; maybe defiler in B?

Would zreg rather give up defiler or scourge...yeah, that's easy, defiler.  ZvZ and ZvP obviously just need scourge.  ZvT might lean defiler, but even that isn't a blowout--scourge for vessels pretty important too, and without scourge, drops become a problem the moment the mutas are off the map, SC2 style.  Without scourge, battlecruisers which already decent lategame become a really serious problem.  Well...defilers help against BCs too--maybe the lack of defilers would hurt more than the lack of scourge?

Anyway, this being argued, to me suggests B or below is probably right.

There's no way defiler is C...right?  Defiler vs hydra is like...lose against terran or lose against protoss.  Eh...? Maybe...?  Guess we should check some C units?

Defiler vs Carrier

ZvZ: doesn't matter, I think.

ZvP: Defiler.  Zerg getting carrier sounds exciting till you realize that they can't use it, since toss now has carrier.

ZvT: Defiler.  Zerg carriers can be irradiated.

PvP: Defiler.  Carriers don't matter, but dark swarm and plague definitely could in a long PvP.

PvT: Unsure.  Carriers seem very important to protoss, but maybe defiler just means they don't even need to go air.

So...3-0.  One more in C tier to be sure.

Defiler vs Marine+Medic

TvT: Defiler.  Plague.  (Plus dark swarm if we feel lenient about making it relevant for this matchup).

TvZ: Maybe lean marine+medic?  Don't love the idea of a forced meching terran--need to commit hard to goliaths or mutas kill you, but if you do pure goliaths and don't scout well enough, mass hydra will just kill you.

TvP: Defiler.  Remember, we're assuming terran gets something to build out of barracks early on to not just die to cheese.  And Plague alone is a very big deal.

ZvZ: marine+medic.  Deny scouting from the first overlord.  Some bust options.  A mineral sink that helps you win the muta war.

ZvP: defiler?  Plague, dark swarm seem relevant.  Removing defiler from zerg probably matters a little bit.  There's probably a little bit of early cheese and cheese defence with marine+medic, but long term I think you want hydra vs protoss due to dying a little less to storm.

OK, going with B for defiler for now.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2022, 06:15:11 AM
OK, the other good spellcaster is obviously high templar.

High templar are clearly very good, but also very slow and easy to pick off, tend to lag behind the army.

I guess start by comparing like to like, so other spellcasters.

High Templar vs Defiler

ZvZ: Probably even.  Maybe the mildest lean towards high templar?  Nearly always too easy to pick off with nothing much to protect it, but landing a storm on mutas, even if they dodge quickly, 30 damage on all of them and forcing movement in an awkward direction? Might be worth it if you think you can keep the HT alive and force the engagement in the right place.

ZvT: Lean defiler I...think?  So...on the one hand, no defilers, that's really good for terran.  But...on the other hand, high templar, which are midgame probably lair tech units (ready about the same time as lurkers).  Terran can't really be out on the map with a pure bio army nearly as early in the game without massive risk.  But...in the long run, high templar move slow, don't have consume, plague is better against science vessels, a couple storms won't actually stop a push but dark swarm will.  Same cost too, and defilers are slightly tankier, so no edge there.  High Templars would force terran to turtle a little longer, but I don't think they allow zerg to just win the game, and terran should take the lategame.

ZvP: High Templar.  Just...die to hydras without them.

PvP: Hmm...evenish?  High templar don't really get built in this matchup, even though they would do things if they did get built.  Would defilers get built, bearing in mind that it would be a very slow long tech to get them?  Eh, probably not.  Matchup is too volatile and midgame focused for that kind of slow tech.

PvT: Defiler, probably.  Plague is maybe worse than storm against terran, but defilers have dark swarm.  And consume; bring some probes to consume.


So...1-2.  Maybe 2-2 if you are generous about some high templar strategy existing in ZvZ.

Science Vessel vs High Templar

PvP: don't think it matters; if high templar don't get built here, vessels probably don't either; EMP is fine, but don't think it's substantially better than storm in the matchup.

PvZ: Hmm...very complicated, but maybe lean vessel?  So...you can't just replace high templar with science vessels as hydra defence.  Irradiate is ok, but it is not storm.  Science vessels cost more.  Hydras are also like...the one zerg unit that can deal with irradiate (if you morph the hydra into a lurker egg, the irradiate will stay on the egg, and can hurt surrounding hydras, but will not damage the egg, and the build time of lurker is such that irradiate will fall off right about when the lurker hatches; you can also just cancel back into a hydra).  But on the flip side, science vessels are a lot better against lurkers.  Detect them, with better movement speed and way more HP than an observer.  BUT on the third hand, zerg no longer needs to spread their lurkers, they can stack burrow multiple in the same spot, and science vessel only hits one.  Science Vessels are also better against mutas, and would presumably build out of the stargate, so give a use for that building after the early corsairs.  Also frees up the robo to not build observers, which is a big deal--if the robo can build reavers while you build detection with another building, lurker contains kinda break.  I could go either way here--worse against hydra is a big deal, but I think better against everything else tips this towards vessel, and maybe reavers can deal with hydras well enough to stay alive.

PvT: High Templar.  Good unit when the enemy is forced to attack into you.  Honestly don't even hate it against carriers.

TvT: High templar.  Storm drops on mineral lines sound pretty good.  And...I don't even hate illusions for this matchup.

TvZ: Vessel.  Like...to be clear, it's not a complete slam dunk here--dropping storm on top of a dark swarm is a great counter to dark swarm.  But...die to mutas.  I mean, maybe don't die to mutas, cause you are forced into valkyries every game, so you can stay alive there, but are immediately contained by lurkers.  And mutas are going to stay more relevant all game cause they're great at sniping high templar.  And defilers are literally never going to die cause there's no irradiate.

2-2.

---

Okay, B tier is seeming ok here, but maybe spellcasters are weird.  Let's do a non-spellcaster.

High Templar vs Goliath

PvP: Maybe a small lean towards goliath?  8 anti-air range matches the range of a reaver, and it can harass the shuttle.  Terrible into dragoons, so you'd only want like...one to stick in your own shuttle (otherwise it dies to a reaver shot) but making 1 and getting the 100/100 upgrade for 8 range might be worth it to harass the shuttle?

PvT: Goliath wins.  Storm is nice but not super central to the matchup, but without goliath, carrier transitions just become monstrous.

PvZ: High Templar wins by a lot.  Core unit, vs unit you will probably not build.

TvT: Maybe Goliath?  High templars are nice, but I think Goliath is more core to terran.

TvZ: High Templar.  Storm to counter dark swarm is good.

2-3.

High Templar vs Scourge

ZvZ: Scourge.  Just...match the pace of the matchup.

ZvT: Hmm...lean scourge?  So...without scourge, vessel count getting out of control is a concern.  Terran being able to do dropship play due to lack of scourge is a concern.  Zerg not having scourge against valkyries is a concern--really weakens muta openers.  But...on the other hand...if there's a signle high templar, a bio terran can't really do a midgame push with marine medic.  The 1-2 punch of plaguing science vessels into storming science vessels also becomes an option; much later, but an option.  But...eraser vessels (where the vessel irradiates itself) now also becomes extremely good with no scourge to kill it, and mutas aren't a good answer to vessels either; is zerg just forced into what...hydras?  Yuck.  So like...yeah, moving out with a marine ball becomes scary, but you can just move out with vessels without the marines, or drop the marines somewhere obnoxious, and zerg can't do very much.

ZvP: High templar.  Like...yeah, ok, maybe Corsairs could become a problem.  But that's why you hydra bust them, and they can't make high templar so that should just work.

PvP: Scourge.  Murder yourself some shuttles.

PvT: I mean, I think the correct answer here is probably high templar, just because of how rarely terran builds anything that flies.  But the idea of teching to a reaver drop, scouting and realizing the terran has a wraith waiting, and  then making a scourge does tickle me a little.  Shutting down a dropship with vultures is also a little nifty.  But...as much  as I don't think it's as good as carrier tech, you can go high templars all game against terran, and protosses do so frequently in ASL (usually lose cause they're not going carriers, but small sample size, presumably it works in their practice games).

2-3

Yeah, High Templar in B alongside Science Vessel and Defiler seems to be more or less lining up.  Maybe unintuitive that its below dragoon, but man, dragoon so much more important to both TvP and PvP.  I guess the weird one is reaver, but...I think that has more to do with trades.  Reaver in the hands of another race tends to beat protoss, and also breaks all sorts of stuff with TvZ, and also makes the protoss lose PvP (unlike dropping HT).


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2022, 06:54:40 AM
Alright...ghost.

I've seen them built against carriers in ASL, which is the one relevant thing they can do, but...still lost to carriers, so IDK if that counts.  Although...I guess they are relevant in TvT.  Nuclear missile launches, unironically.  Cloaking too.

That's probably enough to keep them out of the Devourer tier.  In a tier with scout, guardian, and firebat?  I mean...yeah, they can probably hang with scout, maybe a little worse.  They are better than guardian.  They are quite a bit worse than firebats; I mean...there's arguments to move firebat up.  I don't think they belong with battlecruiser, valkyrie, or ultralisk, though.

Sure, that's ghost sorted.

---

Queen...maybe needs some thought.  Cause like...it's mostly used to counter siege tanks, but that's a lot more relevant for non-zerg races, and it would also be ok against zerg.

Queen vs Valkyrie

ZvZ: Valkyrie wins this comfortably.

ZvT: Lean queen I think?  Spawn broodling working on ultras, defilers, and lurkers seems fairly nice--it's like irradiate, except immediately removes the problem, instead of letting them participate in a coming fight, letting the defiler throw down one last dark swarm.  Instantly getting rid of a lurker and letting terran push through.  I think that has applications.  Valkyrie has applications too, obviously, as an anti-muta option, but I think I lean queen here, even though it's 150 energy to do what irradiate does for 75 energy.  Queen's also cheaper, but takes just as many scourge to kill and can just outrun a scourge all the way back to turrets.  Mass tanks also become a notably stronger lategame.

ZvP: Valkyrie.  They don't beat corsairs, as I've covered recently, but...they punish corsairs that run away, and with scourge you can force corsairs to run, so that's actually very relevant; zerg can probably just take air dominance.

TvT: Queen.  Repeatedly murdering tanks in TvT with spells?  Yep, worth.  Obviously you lose a little air strength, but still worth.

Queen vs Battlecruiser

ZvZ: Probably doesn't matter.  Don't think you can turtle enough for BCs in a typical game.

ZvT: Hm, not sure.  Terran loses BCs, which have become a lategame staple recently.  Terran gain queens; already went over the good things they do--double the energy cost of irradiate, can't hit air units like mutas, but kills it now instead of 30 seconds from now.  Zerg pick up battlecruisers which...is probably not nothing.  A bit like Ultralisks in that they have too much armour for marines to kill efficiently, but ideally they also yamato a science vessel before they go down--but would still die to irradiate as they would become biological when zerg picked them up.  Really not sure who's better here.

ZvP: Maybe a battlecruiser lean.  In small numbers, like one BC vs three corsairs they actually are cost effective vs corsairs.  If you find a nice cliff to abuse, dragoons won't do well against them.  Not remotely scared of storm.

TvT: easy queen win.  The siege tank killer.

TvP: doesn't matter.

Yeah, this seems to be 1-1 (with the TvT queen win being a pretty good win).  Although a couple matchups that I didn't call which could be called as a mild BC lean.

So...E tier.  D tier sounds...ambitious.


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2022, 08:25:29 AM
OK, so two more to go, arbiter and dark archon.

Would dark archon do very much in trades?  Mmm...zerg would use it ZvZ probably, just instantly win the fight.  ZvT...I doubt maelstrom is good.  It's dark swarm that also works on firebats, and doesn't let them retreat out of the dark swarm.  But...lasts 1/5 as long from a unit that costs twice as much and doesn't have consume.  So...probably not even worth researching maelstrom.  But...I am entertaining dark archon anyway just because feedback on science vessels.  A 200 energy dark archon can feedback 4 vessels, killing any that are at full energy even if they are full health.  That...yeah.  And...if you're already building dark archons, then there is mind control.  Pretty nasty counter to battlecruisers.

Would trading dark archon to terran do anything?  Again, underwhelmed by maelstrom in all matchups.  But...mind control.  Mind control on carriers.  Mind control against zerg units that work under dark swarm like ultralisks and lurkers.

So...ok, should probably look at trades on dark archon.

Dark Archon vs Queen

ZvZ: Dark Archon should win.  I mean, I guess the counterargument is that queens don't get built for ensnare very often.  But maelstrom is such a bigger swing in the muta fight.

ZvT: I will lean Dark Archon here mostly for feedback on  science vessels.

ZvP: Mmm...not 100% convinced it even gets built, but mild lean to dark archon cause of feedback on high templars.

PvP: doesn't matter.

PvT: Queen to kill tanks.

3-1 dark archon win.  Although some of those wins were pretty mild.

Hmm...is there a chance dark archon is actually a tier up from queen?  No way, right?

Dark Archon vs Lurker

ZvZ: Well...ok Dark Archon, probably.

ZvT: Lurker.  Yeah they can be skipped, but dark archon sounds more skippable.

ZvP: Lurker

PvP: doesn't matter.

PvT: doesn't matter.

2-1 lurker win.

Dark Archon vs Wraith

TvT: Wraith.  Dark archon might have some applications here, but not as much as "unit that can kill tanks."

TvP: Mmm...I'll give a nod to dark archon here.  Wraith can really shut down a reaver drop, but isn't mandatory.  Whereas Dark Archon could mind control carriers, and against ground armies, maelstrom on zealots might even be worth it.

TvZ: Dark archon.  There are uses for wraith in this matchup.  A surprise cloak build.  Overlord hunting.  Killing guardians.  But Dark archon to mind control stuff like ultras to fight under dark swarm...sounds probably better than these.  Maelstrom...the fact that it exists might punish things like lurker stacking.  Feedback on defilers is an instant kill on any defiler that has energy for a dark swarm.

PvP: Probably no change, but wraith might be relevant as anti-shuttle tech.  Against a single target like a shuttle, does slightly more damage than a corsair, and actually can hit ground, badly, but more than corsair can claim.

PvT: Wraith.  For the same reason Mini built scouts in last season's finals, except better.  Air unit shoot at pure ground siege tank vulture army.

2-2

Hmm...well there's one more we can do.

Dark Archon vs Dropship

TvT: Dropship.  Very core in this matchup.

TvZ: Yeah, Dark Archon.  Not likely to build a lot of dropships anyway.

TvP: Dark Archon.  Mind control those carriers.  Dropships not super important here.

PvP: Maybe Dropship?  Literally just moves faster (until shuttle is upgraded) and has more health.   Could be wrong and this should be "no difference" instead.

PvZ: Don't think it matters.  Maybe an unused stargate can make a dropship, whereas the robo might be more busy with other things.

2-2.

Yeah...feeling more like D-tier, honestly.


(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 10, 2022, 09:09:32 AM
So ok, arbiters.

Intuitively, I feel like they should be below carriers--only used in one matchup, and carriers are looking cleanly better now.  However...they are one of those matchup changing units, like reavers or science vessels.  The existence of Stasis is credited for the reason why terran can't ever go mass battlecruiser against mass carrier--at some point half the battlecruisers get stasised.

And...intuitively, should probably be ahead of dark archon.

So...probably C tier, but let's try a B-tier unit first.

Arbiter vs Defiler

ZvZ: Too minor to mention.  I mean...if you could survive to that point, stasising half the mutas almost certainly leads to a win.  But plague on the mutas would be good too, so you know; good luck reaching the super lategame tech in the most aggro matchup.

ZvT: Defiler.  Arbiters would do stuff in this matchup but...lol, it's defiler ZvT.

ZvP: Arbiter.  Imagine hydras, but they are cloaked and sniping observers.  Don't even think the spells matter that much.

PvP: doubt it matters.

PvT: Defiler probably.  Dark swarm good against terran.


So 1-2, well...that's closer than I thought; let's do one more in B tier.

Arbiter vs Science Vessel

TvT: This is probably arbiter.  Recall is gross.  Cloaking is noteworthy.

TvP: You know what, probably arbiter.  Stasis on carriers sounds like a big deal.  When the protoss army charges in in one big group, stasising some of them, and making the others walk around the stasis units sounds like it instantly blunts the attack.  Protoss detection sucks so cloaking everything is a big problem for them--continuously sniping observers and or protoss science vessels with goliaths, and then sticking the army under the arbiter sounds rough.  Widow mines still being cloaked after they pop out of the ground if the arbiter is nearby sounds stupid.  Technically recall is really gross cause you can recall siege tanks in siege mode, but that's a weird thing that only comes up when trading, so not sure how much weight to give that.

TvZ: Science Vessel.  By a massive amount.

PvP: Doubt it matters.

PvZ: Science Vessel beats up zerg, arbiter will never be built.

So...2-2, but the SV wins were big wins.

Yeah...all of these are feeling like Arbiter is...just a little shy of things in this tier.  Other stuff in this tier...would protoss rather give up arbiter or high templar; easy enough arbiter.  Would protoss rather give up shuttle or arbiter.  Easy enough: arbiter.  B tier seems to high.

So...C tier?

Arbiter vs Medic+Marine

TvT: Arbiter  (all the reasons why arbiter's good in this matchup outlined above)

TvP: Arbiter (ditto)

TvZ: Medic+Marine.  Not...convinced Arbiters get built--just seem like scourge targets.

PvP: doesn't matter

PvZ: Medic+Marine.  Beat hydras in a heads up fight.

Pretty clean 2-2

Arbiter vs Hydra

ZvZ: doesn't matter

ZvT: Arbiter.  Stasis a clump of science vessels, and then throw down a dark swarm to force the terran back.  Then, when the vessels un-stasis, and don't have marines nearby, have scourge ready.  I did test, and apparently spellcasters still gain energy while stasised, so...this doesn't deny energy to the vessels.  But...still a very threatening move.

ZvP: Hydra.  Zerg's just going to die to mass corsairs, and arbiter doesn't help.

PvP: Maybe Hydra.  Worse once the reavers are out, but there's probably a timing there.

PvT: Arbiter.  Hydra against terran...yeah, as protoss I am not sure why you would build those.  Whereas obviously arbiter vs terran is fine.

Another clean 2-2.

OK, yeah, C tier is looking right.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 11, 2022, 09:45:47 AM
OK, so the thing that is left is the workers.

As a reminder--mining with workers is always just assumed.  This is all the other things they can do, such as attack, scout, build buildings in the opponent's base, hide tech, cannon rush, steal the opponent's gas, repair, bunker rush, build turrets with a tank push.

Playing "without a worker" just means the workers will be in your base, not scout, and not attack.

OK, that out of the way...

Drone:

feeling E-tier on this one.  Tell a zerg that they have to pick between not building lurkers, or not drone scouting or attacking with drones...I think they pick lurkers, so lower than D tier.  E tier is Ultralisk, though, and yeah, zerg probably would rather be able to attack with workers to defend cheese than lose ultras.

Probe:

So probe scouting and probe harass is big in all matchups...and all these other protoss units are kinda matchup specialized.  Hmmm...shuttle, that's used in all three matchups.  Would protoss rather give up all the scouting and gas stealing, or would they rather give up shuttle (and get a weak transport with some long research time that moves slow as a replacement).  Mmm...you know, I think they'd rather give up the probe shenanigans.  Without shuttle they just lose PvP, and PvT becomes extremely rough--no dropping zealots on top of tanks, reavers become kinda impractical until later, no storm drops.  No matter what you're hurting.  Against zerg, the probe scout would be the pick, but not a big win.

But at the same time...higher than D-tier sounds right.  Protoss cares way more about probes, scouting and harassing than they do about DTs.  And...they can live with a downgraded observer to get their scouting/harassment.  So...by process of elimination, I think we land on C-tier?

SCV:

Hmm...golaith is used in all matchups, but the least by far against zerg.  Against zerg, obviously you want SCV.  Against protoss...it's not a slam dunk, because scouting is very nice, building turrets with a tank contain is very nice.  But...I think the threat of carriers is just too big.  Against terran...it is complicated, because building turrets all over the map effectively makes your supply larger because turrets don't take supply.  But...goliaths are an important part of the rock-paper-scissors.  Without them, the only mobile anti air you can make is also air units (wraiths, valkyries, battlecruisers) so I think you can force the opponent onto a heavily air based army...and then you can make goliaths to counter that heavily air based army.  So...I think it's goliath in two matchups here.

So...again looking like maybe C tier.  Is SCV D-tier?  Well Wraith and dropship would be the comparison, yeah, no question, you want SCV scouting/repairing/building turrents etc over wraith in all matchups.  And over dropship in at least all matchups except TvT (and maybe still in TvT, but dropships are quite good there).

OK, so this leaves the list looking as follows:

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 15, 2022, 04:10:56 AM
A random thought on MC's rankings...  I will say it's a little surprising to see Dark Archon at D and Archon at E.  I get it, though, just different criteria than raw in-game use...  while Dark Archons are practically never built and Archons (as raw combat units, not emergency templar-recycling) do get built (e.g. vs. Mutalisks), I guess the moral is that DAs are working for the wrong race.  If they were a Zerg unit, then yeah, using them as Feedback bots vs. Terran to zap/steal Science Vessels would be legit, and they miiiight even see play in deeply late game ZvZ to win Mutalisk battles (although the amount of gas required to build a Dark Archon and research Maelstrom could have been more Mutalisks, so definitely not a midgame play). 
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 15, 2022, 07:14:48 PM
Quote
while Dark Archons are practically never built and Archons (as raw combat units, not emergency templar-recycling) do get built (e.g. vs. Mutalisks)

I have seen in ASL games protosses making dark archons vs mutalisks, so they do occasionally get built as well--certainly they are a way to stop a muta allin, but only a few players go that route.

But...yeah, in term of how much dark archons are used in actual ASL games, it's similar or a little less than the scout.  It's very rare.

Part of the difference there, though, is that the scout, you can look at it relative to the wraith and the mutalisk, and it's just a worse anti-ground unit than the wraith and the mutalisk--both of those are way better. 

Whereas Dark Archon--it's in the race with high templar, reavers, and arbiters.  If there's one race that is the "spellcaster race" it's protoss.  It has more regularly used spellcasters than any other race, and reavers which fill a similar role to spellcasters.  It's a bit like how terran in terms of ground units that hit air has several options including goliaths, marines, and just building missile turrets in the middle of the map.  If terran didn't have goliaths, you'd probably see more marines in all matchups.

As for the rating of archon...still a very weird unit to rate; possibly it should just be combined with high templar.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 15, 2022, 07:22:51 PM
So...ASL finals:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djZt3n1Po6s

Some standard stuff--protoss being way up, going a tech path that isn't carriers, and losing.

But the one really interesting game was game 4.  Light fails a rush, and is very behind.  So...he throws down four barracks and an academy, gets medic marine tank, and moves out right as the observer gets to his base so right when Rain would get the information that he needs a reaver.  Gets to rain's base slightly before the reaver finishes and gets bunkers up and wins.

You know, previously I haven't given too much credit to these bio allins, usually just chalked them up to a desperation play that just wouldn't work.  But well...this one worked, so maybe I need to rethink this a little?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on May 05, 2022, 04:34:53 AM
FFT Special skillsets as secondaries: thoughtdump

  Picking this back up by dropping various thoughts on how well specails' skillsets function as a secondary skill.  Because they can't be sent on propositions, if one wants to teach them skills outside their base class (Move +2 for instance), they're going to be spending time in generic classes.  So this will lead to an attempt to rank how well their skilsets function outside their base class.

To start things off, Mustadio.

Snipe really functions best with a long range weapon and above average Speed.  Chemist and Mediator are both natural fits with innate gun usage and access to hats.  Archer is a reasonable pick as well with innate longbows.  Ninja I feel is a strong carrier too.  Despite being range 1, getting two shots per use is fairly substantial for those times where Attack isn't a kill.  Classes limited to range 1 weapons don't carry Snipe very well at all and the range 2 and 3 weapons aren't much better off.  Some worse than others such as Knight, Thief, or Monk without any ranged skills learned.  (though with a skillset, Monk Mustadio does have innate Martial Arts for boosted Snipe chances.)

The Equip Gun support ability is a boon for the Snipe command set making it more viable for other classes.   Still it does tie up the support slot and even then it doesn't benefit other classes equally.  Also, 750 Mediator JP takes a while to pile up.  Looking at roughly 35-40 actions to accrue the JP (without Gained JP UP) though it varies depending on Mustadio's levels when he's in Mediator.  Probably expect 40-50 actions since picking up Threaten first looks like a good idea.

So who benefits most from Equip Gun out of the remaining 13 classes?  Thief Musty works out pretty well (by Snipe's mediocre standards anyways) and puts its stellar Speed to use.  Priest with a focus on support spells functions decently; the middling male MA not a factor in gun damage.  Equip Gun Time Mage gives up at most 1 MA so I feel it does come out ahead.  Equip Gun seems to strengthen Bard too.

The remaining classes have less incentive to tie up the support slot.  While Equip Gun doesn't hurt Samurai (and to a lesser extent, Lancer), all the armor classes are middling with Snipe.  Wizards , Summoners, and Geos stand to lose more magic power with a gun and they're less likely to care about its range.  Oracles already have a respectable physical.  Calculator is plain awful with Snipe regardless of the weapon.

Score: 38/85  If I was factoring the overall usefulness of the skillset into the score, it would be lower.  But right now, I'm only rating based on how well classes can carry it.  And spell guns can make almost anyone viable.

Agrias

    Holy Sword wants high PA and WP to be a worthwhile pick.  Well setting Holy Sword for Knight or Geomancer is mostly automatic.  Any other class will need to devote their support slot to Equip Sword.  At least Agrias will be contributing while accruing the needed JP for Equip Sword which will probably be about 15-20 actions.  (Gained JP up doesn't really speed this up if she doesn't start with it; it takes more actions to learn it than it would save)

   With Equip Sword, classes with access to PA boosting clothes and hats will see the most benefit.  Ninja is a fantastic carrier.  High WP flail in the right hand, sword in left, and go murder things.  Thief Agrias with PA boosting armor works really well and is one of the few powerful Thief setups when training for Move +2 on a special.  Archer is an odd choice but still manages some relevance.  If she hasn't trained much in other classes yet (like right after learning Equip Sword), it may well be her most damaging option though this does give up the range of a longbow.  Dancer with Holy Sword has acceptable PA and the skillsets work well together.  Dance when out of range and Holy Sword when something is close enough.  Samurai wants a Rune Blade but once acquired, it's a pleasing combo with Draw Out providing utility options and different effect ranges on its offensive skills and Rune Blade boosting those.

Lancer and Monk have the raw PA but have fewer PA boosting options so less attractive as carriers.  As for the magical side of the job tree, yeah no they're going to be worse with the swordskills than Holy Knight.  At lower raw PA levels and PA boosting gear, she can get away with decent power on Chemist and Mediator but guns may be preferable.  Priest can sometimes equal Holy Knight/Thief in PA (90% PA multiplier compared to 100%) so it could be a viable carrier.  The other mage classes really feel like she'd be better off finding a different secondary skillset.  So if one is determined to pick up Teleport for her, she's probably not going to be using Holy Sword during that time.

Score: 37/85  Being dependent on having a sword and having nearly half the job tree unable to wield the skillset well hits her hard with the criteria I'm using.

Rafa

  She wants lots of MA for Truth.  Wizard is the obvious pick but I feel the skillsets are redundant  together.  They're both magic damage and I'm more inclined to favor Black Magic's dependability than messing with Truth on a Wizard Rafa.  At least Truth pierces evasion and low Faith though which keeps it from complete irrelevance.  Unlike Summoner, another carrier where Truth is most likely sitting unused.  I find Priest, Time Mage, and Oracle the best Truth carriers.  Truth provides offense while the White/Time/Yin-yang Magic provide utility.

  On the physical side, only Rune Blade Knight or Geomancer stick out to me.  Knight won't be amazing MA but it's decent with a Rune Blade, Red Shoes (and Aegis Shield if willing to sacrifice evasion) and provides ranged options which Knight lacks.  Geo does have MA and a good array of boosting options but geomancy piercing evasion means I'm likely to favor its reliability over mucking about with Truth.  Any other class, setting Truth as a secondary is pretty much only because I don't have a better option, not that I'm expecting Truth to make much of a contribution to a battle.

Score: 16/85

Malak

    Un-Truth wants high MA and a class that doesn't need Faith to be effective.  Which leaves... almost nothing.  Rune Blade Knight is OK and Un-Truth does let it attack things at distances or over large vertical difference.  Geo has the MA but again, I'm more likely to reach for the dependability of geomancy over risking Un-Truth.  Bard has above average MA but not much in the way of boosting it.

Yeah, Un-Truth is awful as a secondary.

Score: 6/85  And this is with a pity point for Oracle Malak and not factoring in the effort to unlock Bard.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on May 06, 2022, 04:29:50 AM
FFT Special skillsets as secondaries: thoughtdump continued

Beowulf

    Magic Sword requires a sword and decent MP to make frequent use of it.  MA is not as important since most of the skillset's accuracy comes from the skills itself but is nice to have.  Geomancer is probably the best not-Temple Knight option he can get.  Knight has robes but is generally lacking in MP lowering its desirability as a carrier.  Using the skillset in other classes requires Equip Sword.  The carriers that stand out for me are Wizard and Summoner.  Black Magic/Summon Magic provide the direct damage that Magic Sword generally lacks.  Priest is OK too with its Speed multiplier and a skillset that covers different functions than Magic Sword.  Samurai with a Rune Blade works OK for similar reasons as Agrias but unlocking Samurai on Beowulf is a pain since he's so awful in Monk, Thief, and Archer.  Time Mage feels only OK as the melee damage isn't much better than a staff and maybe even worse.  Compare that with Priest who has a decent physical for those moments one can catch an enemy midcharge.  Oracle has lots of overlap and would require giving up a stick for Magic Sword.  Lancer MP is terrible and robes don't save it.  Mediator with Magic Sword is viable but I don't feel it's worth giving up a spell gun for.  Hat wearing classes without robes would lean towards wearing a Gold Hairpin for MP to fuel Magic Sword and giving up a Thief Hat/Twist Headband feels like a bigger sacrifice.  Chemist and Archer would also entail sacrificing their ranged weapons so I consider them terrible Magic Sword carriers.

  Score: 25/85  I considered throwing a pity point for Thief since Equip Sword does help its offense but it doesn't change how it's still bad as a carrier which is what this evaluation focuses on.

Orandu

  Similar to Agrias, likes having high PA and WP.  In some ways Orlandu feels better off than Agrias in generic classes yet in some ways he feels worse.  Partly because Holy Swordsman is so good so there's a bigger power loss relative to a generic wielding All Swordskill.  And partly because he joins later when there are more significant hat options.  Still male PA gives him more oomph.

  Knight Orlandu offers nothing over his base class (other than higher PA growth which I'm not factoring in here).  It's still his second best but the gap between first and second is noticeable.  Geomancer Orlandu doesn't have the same appeal as Geo Agrias despite male PA.  Knight swords are a factor by the time he joins so it's a bigger power drop.

  As for Equip Sword classes, Ninja is still fantastic for the same reason of Agrias.  Even more destructive with male PA backing it up.  I feel he pulls off Monk well enough.  Samurai Orlandu doesn't have the synergy factor of Samurai Agrias and Draw Out is going mostly unused in his hands.  He's in Samurai to grind Blade Grasp and get out once done.  Thief I consider the minimum PA threshhold for a All Swordskill carrier.  Less power per attack than other options but with that speed, he's getting lots of turns relative to other generics.  Archer and Lancer are functional but don't really add options other than shields.  The magic side of the job tree are all awful at carrying swordskills.

  Score: 24/85  It's not that the skillset is bad in other classes.  It's that Holy Swordsman is so good that the gap in power is so much bigger.

Reis

  Dragon has different ideal carriers depending on what skills Reis will be focusing on.  For the damage skills, MA is the key stat along with mobility.  Geomancer is a great carrier with its 4 move, good MA and MA boosting options, and geomancy if she isn't close enough for a breath attack.  The mage classes are fair carriers to.  As a Time Mage, Reis has time magic for utility while Dragon provides direct damage that will leave a mark with Time Mage magic power.  Priest is good too.  Less magic but more speed with Dragon to contribute direct damage.  Oracle is not as good with less MA then Time Mage and sticks having the same attack range as the breath attacks (and an Octagon Rod does the same damage) though a Black Robe pushes breath damage past Octagon Rod poke damage.  Wizard and Summoner have less use for Dragon attacks but the Now timing and not being subject to Faith means they can still fill a niche.

  If Dragon is there to be used for Dragon Tame or buffing an ally Dragon, then speed and mobility are the key stats.  So Ninja and Thief become the best carriers for this purpose.  By the numbers, Ninja is outright superior in everything besides HP but Thief has an easier unlock requirement and given how late Reis joins, actually feels relevant.

  Score: 21/85  I'm not giving Knight Reis credit since Holy Bracelet has laughable accuracy and 2 range breath attacks have almost as much range issue as 1 range melee.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: DragonKnight Zero on May 09, 2022, 09:16:13 AM
FFT Special skillsets as secondaries - the last batch of thoughtdump

Meliadoul

  Like Agrias and Orlandu, she's looking for high amounts of PA and WP to power her skillset.  It's even more important that her swordskills are strong since they can only be used a limited number of times per target.  On top of that, a desirable carrier is able to function without Mighty Sword in the event she joins a battle and there are only monsters on the opposing side.

  Knight is good against humans but it's very awkward on monsters.  On monsters, all she's got is Attack and whatever Battle Skills she learned to work with.  In a game where every monster has innate Counter, being limited to range 1 attacks that trigger counters is not a good position to be in.  Geomancer carries Mighty Sword better as it's less helpless on monsters.

  Magical classes all suck as carrying Mighty Sword; she's unlikely to finish off anything with swordskills alone.  On the physical side, Ninja and Samurai are alright but can get expensive to sustain.  Though money generally isn't an issue that late in the game and even less likely to be a problem if one has trained enough to unlock one or both classes on her.  Monk's skillset lets her contribute on monsters without setting off Counters once she can snag Wave Fist (or even Spin Fist if desperate enough).  Lancer can kind of work with Level Jump 2 or more.  The speed makes it harder to connect Jumps though most monsters won't outspeed it too badly.  Not likely to be able to Jump on Thief Hat wearing humans but they're human so smash with swordskills.  Dancer is kind of stuck for non-Mighty Sword damage but I suppose one can use it entirely for debuffing.  Archer and Thief are both terrible at carrying Mighty Sword.  It's a chore to train her Move +2 since she has all that speed but little to channel it towards.

  Score: 15/85  I'm not penalizing the score for how far out of the way it is to unlock Samurai, Ninja, and Dancer on her.

Cloud

  Requiring a Materia Blade to use Limits is an immediate strike against the transferability of the skillset.  And he probably wants Short Charge or forget about hitting anything with Meteorain and Omnislash.  (Cherry Blossom is so slow it's a task to land it even with Short Charge.)  Desired carrier stats depend on the Limits available/focused on.  Cross Slash will probably be the first significant Limit and it's powered by MA.  Blade Beam just wants high max HP.  Climhazzard and Finish Touch are stat independent and only mobility matters for their usability.

  Knight really is not a good carrier.  Subpar MA and the Materia Blade requirement cuts Cloud off from knight swords and the Rune Blade (which he really could have used).  Probably Cloud's best option for a Blade Beam carrier though I don't put much worth in Blade Beam.  Materia Blade also gimps attack damage in a class that's dependent on it.  Geomancer I really like.  Less offense than Soldier but gets 4 Move and shields in exchange which can really help his survivability (or toss on an Aegis Shield to help make up the MA difference).  And Geomancy lets Cloud do something in those awkward moments where he's not getting a Limit off. (be it risking getting midcharged or all available targets being able to move away before a Limit resolves)

  As for classes where he needs Equip Sword to use Limits, the physical classes other than Knight/Geomancer all suck  Well Thief and Ninja can work as carriers for the stat independent Limits but that's limiting his options.  And if Cloud is spending time in Ninja, I'm more inclined to toss a pure generic setup on him.  Samarui is lackbuster since he can't use Rune Blade and Limit at the same time in the class.

  Limit shows more promise on the magical side of the job tree.  Priest is OK.  Could be stronger but the skillsets don't duplicate each other.  Wizard is all about powerful Cross Slash and Black Magic will go mostly unused save for better range (and less often, being able to lock it on units).  Time Mage does well enough with the high MA and Time Magic providing functions that Limit doesn't.  Melee damage will generally be worse than a staff but by the time Cloud joins, Time Mage melee isn't really significant anymore.  It had its day in the sun and that's long passed.  Summoner, I guess.  It feels like it would be a Rafa situation where Summon eclipses the special skillset.  But Limit is more predictable in when it will hit.  Chemist/Mediator lack the MA to support Cross Slash and don't offer anything substantial towards the other Limits.  Plus it would require giving up guns.  Similar drawback with Oracle and its good weapon options.  Calculator is hopeless as expected.  And Bard?  Yah, requiring a PA based weapon in a class with game-worst PA isn't ending well.

  Score 18/85  Tossed in a pity point for Thief/Ninja combined.

Ramza

  Guts ended up being a mental block to evaluate which is why he's at the end of this thoughtdump and not the beginning.  Most of the key skills its hyped for are stat independent.  For the ones that aren't, Dash/Throw Stone are not going to be used for damage output, Wish is strengthened by high max HP but makes little sense to build around, and Ultima late Chapter 4 when the game is more than 80% over.  Instead, I choose to evaluate Guts' transferability based on how much I feel its utility skills can benefit each generic class.  More Speed and Brave are universally useful so for the most part, I won't be factoring that into my ratings (with a few exceptions)

  Monk most directly benefits from Accumulate thanks to the quadratic damage formula of fists and Punch Art.  Monk also can use Yell to catch up Speed-wise to their hat wearing allies.  Ninja and Thief skillsets benefit directly from Yell though Guts takes double the uses to benefit their weapon strikes.  Lancer likes either or both depending on the Speed situation and the opposition faced.  Geomancer with Guts becomes more useful in Chapter 4 with Scream and Ulitma in the picture.  Knight is OK needing only one shot of Accumulate for a damage increase but the skillset barely address their range issues.  Samurai makes use of the full Scream package with a physical that's helped by higher Brave and a magic powered skillset though Guts is a mediocre secondary without it.  Archer feels like the worst physical carrier for Guts.  Takes 2 uses of Yell/Accumulate for each increase in damage.  Unless one uses crossbows but crossbow damage is awful for most of the game.

  Most magic classes get little mileage out of Guts before Scream is learned.  Summoner and especially Calculator like Yell to make up for their speed deficiency.  Thanks to Yell (and Scream when available), Ramza may be the only special character who isn't a chore to train in Calculator.  Ultima further enhances the usefulness of Guts for Priest/Time Mage/Oracle by providing offense that their base class generally struggles with.  Wizard's main niche for Ultima is piercing evasion and otherwise feels redundant.  Chemist doesn't see any unique benefit from Guts unless you're doing something offbeat like fist Chemist.  Scream boosting MA I guess turns Talk Skill Ramza into the best potential Faith rasier.  Enough uses can make Persuade and other low-accuracy skills reliable though this is trivia due to the uses required.  Bard feels awkward as a Guts carrier.  Sing runs independent of a unit's Speed so it doesn't benefit from more Speed.    Harps use two stats for damage so their damage is slower to raise.  1-2 more MA from Scream won't make much impact on the songs that use it.  Bard has good MA but so little MP that it's poor at carrying Ultima.  Could Scream until Bloody Strings is doing 999 per hit but that's a comedy option that takes far too long to set up.

  Score: 38/85

Final ranking for most transferable skillset.

1. Ramza
2. Agrias
3. Mustadio
4. Beowulf
5. Orlandu
6. Reis
7. Cloud
8. Rafa
9. Meliadoul
10. Malak

Feel like I overvalued Snipe so put him behind Agrias in this final listing.  PSP Meliadoul is a lot better; at a glance I'd place that incarnation just below Orlandu.  Malak is dead last, to very little surprise.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 19, 2022, 08:41:40 PM
ASL is back, and two unusual unit sightings in day 1:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl2MHjmGBLk

Game 2: two Archons made (instant-morphed) as the first two units out of a templar archive as a safeguard against a muta allin.

Game 4: guardians and a devourer (!!!) made ZvT when the zerg was miles ahead and probably could have won with anything, also simultaneously had a contain with about 12 lurkers outside of the Terran's nat, and teched to defilers.  I guess also valkyries and wraiths from the Terran.

Devourer didn't actually do very much--killed the wraiths that were killing the guardians, but to be blunt a mutalisk would have killed them faster, while being about as tanky against the wraiths.  I guess Devourer doesn't die to a singular irradiate?  Irradiate deals 249 damage, Devourer has 250 HP.  Or maybe he just wanted a bit of extra range on the air-to-air attack?  I don't know, didn't really make a lot of sense to me.

Guardians busted down a couple bunkers, and there were also siege tanks behind that, so guardians made sense.  Probably could have broken the position without them, but they were helping.

Valkyries and Wraiths were logical of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 23, 2022, 12:17:29 PM
ASL day 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14npi5CuG50

Not really that many unusual units.

Most unusual game was game 3.

Terran going CC first, Zerg responding with 3 hatch before pool, and then terran went double armory mech, and zerg building a spire, getting scouted, and then making no mutas and all lurkers.  Terran had no detection forever--no academy for scans.  Lots of turrets but placed to defend against mutas.  No science vessels.

I guess this is a weakness of mech vs zerg.   Mech has to go heavy goliath early on to not die to mutas, Goliaths are gas heavy, so it's hard to get a remotely fast science vessel.  It's also tempting to delay academy.

Other games...there was a proxy hatch spine crawler rush against protoss.  Didn't work very well.

And a couple PvTs where protoss maybe even had an early lead, but did not go carriers and died.  (Went like double robo speed shuttle with high templars, that is supposedly trendy right now but keeps not winning in ASL).  Interesting piece of information from the casters, actually, apparently Valkyries can be built if protoss really goes heavy on speed shuttles (not actually seen in these games, though).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 26, 2022, 01:07:17 AM
ASL day 3:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvc0uB0Emnc

Interesting units were game 4.

proxy rax against zerg, into vultures with mines and a wraith.  Zerg had hatch tech hydras to deal with the wraith.

This apparently is a fairly standard direction for the game to go after a proxy rax.  The one base vultures are needed so that lings can't counterattack against a terran with no wall.  And then wraith is a common followup cause the zerg is not getting lair any time soon so a wraith can force hydras.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 28, 2022, 06:28:31 AM
ASL day 4:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmnLoTQ4mDQ&t=10s

No real surprises, but some potential for huge surprises.  A zerg vs zerg where one player went to hive and then...didn't make any hive units.

Valkyries in both TvTs, but nothing too surprising there, but it's a unit that doesn't always show up.

ZvT there was a weird build (one base lurker rush) although the lurkers never got built, just the ling rush killed the terran.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 01, 2022, 07:33:41 AM
Skipping over ASL day 5--forgot to do this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bj_yG7jwX8

don't think there was much to report though.  Two ZvZs with exactly the units you expect.  A TvP where the floating third CC was misclicked to the middle of the map (protoss won).  And some cheese and weird maps that ended up in one sided games using fairly standard units in ZvP and ZvT.

ASL day 6:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTXcGapaRCc

Is...five PvTs.  If memory serves, Arbiter + Templar was the tech of choice in pretty much every map, and one of them actually was a protoss win.  But...end of the day, 4-1 for Terran.  So...the non-carrier builds still not super impressing me in ASL, even if it seems to be the standard that's been settled on for now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 02, 2022, 09:35:41 AM
(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer

OK, so do I have any modifications of these.

Devourer.  I have actually seen it more than once now as a 1 or 2 of alongside a guardian push.  I didn't like it in the game I saw it, but I did like it in a game I saw that was below ASL level (from Artosis' stream, Artosis was doing a Valkyrie rush).  Against wraiths a devourer really isn't any better than a muta, but against valkyries it...still kills the valks slower than mutas would, but it survives a lot longer against them (almost twice the survivability of a muta).

Although...one additional thing that is worth considering--the acid spores legit aren't doing much in terms of making the anti air (whether wraith or valkyrie) die faster, BUT they do slow down attack speed as well.  So...maybe they are included in the attack not to actually kill wraiths or valkyries, but just to make them shoot slower.  The guardians will die if wraiths get built, not a lot that can be done to stop that, but maybe a Devourer or two is there to slow down the process?

They're a lower tier than Guardian for sure, but maybe don't need to be solo in the lowest tier.  They could share with like...Ghost and Scout.

That does leave F tier really small with just Firebat and Guardian.

Firebat in E tier doesn't feel out of place in terms of how much it actually comes up in practice.  It's about as relevant as the ultralisk in TvZ.  It came up in that random TvP from last season.  Dark Swarm is inflating it a little bit, since it is one of terran's only answers to that but you can also make it as part of a rush vs zerg, so it's not just a niche thing that comes up due to defilers.

Guardian in E tier...no, it's just worse than battlecruisers which are also in E tier.  Like...I guess they have slightly more damage relative to their cost (slightly) but like 1/4 the durability, same movement speed, no Yamato.

Are there things that can be moved to E-tier?  Not...really.  Like...no ultralisks don't deserve to be brought down to the same level as guardians and firebats.  Queens are maybe worth considering, but pretty sure there was extensive trade logic behind queens being where they are (probably something about breaking TvT if traded to Terran).  So...I guess just keep separate E, F, and G tiers.

Archon so I have actually seen a few games now where two high templar are built and instantly morphed into an archon.  Typically as defence against a muta allin.  I would say that would justify moving them up a bit, but...they're already on the same tier as Valkyrie, so it's fine.

Hydra might be worth re-evaluating based on the information that they are a critical piece of defence against wraiths when certain build sequences happen (specifically failed proxy rax bunker rush that required pulled drones, into making a vulture, into making a wraith--wraith gets to the zerg base too early for spire due to the lost mining time from pulled drones).  Bottom line though...don't really see hydras moving a tier above marines.  Marine+medic is better vs zerg units, and hydras are better vs protoss units.

Lurker has been showing up in a lot of games, but typically cheesier games with some silly rush that catches people without detection (or not).  Something to keep an eye on, probably no tier movement required.

Carrier I don't think I've seen a single carrier this season.  Backseat gaming that protosses are all losing to Terrans cause they aren't going carriers is all well and good, but presumably if they're not bringing it, presumably some of them have been trying it and it hasn't worked out great in practice games.  If it's back to a tech path that pros almost never use, it probably should be moved down a tier (or maybe even two).  But more than that, there's a lot of trade logic tied to carriers.  Like...Terran being really happy if they get traded defilers cause they can drop plague on Carriers, or mind control carriers if they get Dark Archon.  If carriers are slipping from relevance, there's some tech focused stuff that maybe goes down with them.  If carriers are less of a terror in the TvP matchup, I do think Dark Archons traded to terran probably just...is a lot less relevant.  Probably drops them down to E tier.

So...ok, just reshuffling the E and F tiers for now.  Have some stuff that I'd like to get more data on.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer, Scout, Ghost

I guess questions could also be asked about why I'm doing special analysis on units like queens and dark archons traded to other races, but specifically not doing that for Devourer cause zerg doesn't have synergy for them at all.  Mmm...if we did do that for Devourer where would they end up?  Devourer not really relevant as anti-muta tech--just too slow tech wise.  So it would be like...big in TvT for battlecruiser fights (though not break the matchup as much as giving terran queeens).  Depending on the position of Carrier in the meta might also be a hard shutdown to carriers TvP.  So...un-tethered by "ignore obviously good synergy like corsairs and valkyries and even Goliaths to a degree" if we allow those synergies...Devourer probably same tier as Queen?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 02, 2022, 07:19:59 PM
OK, I want to revisit dark archons.

Like...a lot of them getting into the tier they did hinges on them being a counter to carriers.

and...how realistic is that?  Just tested in game, and if you start production on two DTs to morph a dark archon at the same time as production starts on a carrier, 150 energy for mind control will be ready at about the same time as the carrier has 8 interceptors.  Mind control is also only 8 range.  Now, protoss can't do very much with two carriers, often needs to wait for 4 carriers, so if you start production on dark archons before the first carrier pops out, it will definitely be ready before there are four carriers.

Mmm...still sounds like it would work fine TBH.

Dark archons are 8 range, and protoss interceptors can hit further away than that, but...even if you need to suicide mind control it's a pretty cost effective trade if you think of it as killing a carrier.  And if you actually get to keep the carrier or deal some damage with it before it goes down it's an excellent trade.

So...ok, still looks like probably a counter to carriers on paper.

But I want to go back and look at dark archon assuming the carrier interaction isn't that big of a deal--either cause I'm overestimating mind control as a counter, or because I'm overestimating carrier in the matchup.

---

Dark Archon vs Queen

ZvZ: Still feel like Dark Archon here--"counter to mass mutas" is just a big selling point.

ZvT: I went Dark Archon last time due to feedback on Science Vessels, and yeah, that still sounds correct.  Some chance that late game mech becomes a big problem without queens though.

ZvP: Seems like a low impact change either way.  Protoss have an abundance of answers to mutas, will be fine without dark archons.  Dark archons from zerg might be relevant to use feedback.  Spawn broodling on lurkers is dubious when psionic storm almost kills a lurker for half the energy.

PvP: Spawn broodling does not kill reavers, so yeah, no change here.  (Some small chance that carrier gets a little bit of relevance in the matchup, but guessing not still).

PvT: Queen easily to kill tanks.

Yeah, this one is still 2-1 or 3-1 dark archon.  But let's look at other stuff in E tier.

Dark Archon vs Battlecruiser

TvT: Battlecruiser right?  Like...Dark Archon might be able to act as a bit of a foil to battlecruiser, but that's just about the only unit you'd want DA for in this matchup.  So it's purely a reactive unit, and not necessarily good at stopping BCs cause EMP.

TvZ: Battlecruiser maybe?  OK, I'm looking back at my old notes on dark archon in terran and...mind controlling ultralisks and lurkers to have units that fight under dark swarm...eh, if I'm going to be harsh on every other melee unit that gets traded to terran and pretend it doesn't erase their vulnerability to dark swarm, I might as well do the same for Dark Archon.  Dark Archon does still do something here, but I'm not sure it's more than BCs.  There's also feedback on defilers to consider. 

PvP: probably doesn't change in any substantial way.

PvZ: probably doesn't change much.  I mean you can build battlecruisers, and they'll do better than carriers in the matchup, but when zerg is already going mass hydra it's iffy.

PvT: Ignoring mind control on carriers...probably not much changes.

2-0 battlecruiser, maybe 1-0 or 1-1 depending on how you see TvZ.

Dark Archon vs Vaklyrie

TvT: I think I lean Dark Archon here.  Some concerns could be raised about how to beat mass wraiths but...honestly...good in the late BC fights.  And...the fact that you gain all the units inside a dropship when you mind control it makes dropships scary to use here too.

TvP: I mean, no change other than Carriers which I said I would ignore.  (Counting carriers this should lean Dark Archon).

TvZ: Seems even-ish, lose one tool against mutas, get...probably a different tool against mutas that's...slower, but also has more potential to stay relevant in lategame with mind control.  Maybe slight lean Dark Archon?

PvP: lol no

PvZ: no substantial change

So...1-0 or maybe 2-0 dark archon.


Dark Archon vs Ultralisk

ZvZ: Dark Archon.

ZvT: Ultra?  I'm just going to say Ultra cause it's the ultra matchup, but...I'm not super sure, just cause feedback on science vessels or mind controlling battlecruisers is not nothing.

ZvP: Probably low impact, but mild lean DA.  Maybe some use feedbacking high templar.  Protoss can fend off mutas without dark archons.  I don't think protoss even considers building ultras--they have zealots, zealots take half damage from hydras already.  I do think everything here points towards DA, but "everything" is still pretty small.

PvP: No impact.  Is there a world where ultras get built?  Haha no, that would be silly--take full damage from dragoons when zealots take half damage.

PvT: Maybe Ultra?  I do think there's a market for "zealot that is faster, less vulnerable to splash, and takes no damage from vultures".  It's also "Zealot that dies in 6 siege tank shots instead of 4 siege tank shots, but costs four times as much", though, so I'm not 100% sure.  Still gives a ton of mobility.

1-1, or maybe 2-2.

---

(Skipping comparisons to Drones and Archons cause weird units).

Yeah...still feels on the strong side of the tier, so I can see how it was a tier up initially with all the other favourable assumptions I was giving it (relevance against protoss as an anti-carrier, relevance against zerg for mind controlling units that can fight under dark swarm).  But...one tie, one (maybe) loss, two wins but the wins were 1-0 or 2-1, looks on the high end but maybe ok in this tier, and this tier is sort of where I want to intuitively put it.

---

Mmm...I don't know with this one.  I want the tier to match my intuition more, but I feel like a couple of different assumptions and Dark Archon just clearly looks like it doesn't belong in this tier.  (Like...if I put more weight on dark archon as an answer to carriers, or more weight on feedback being really good in TvZ on either end against science vessels or defilers, or more weight on feedback vs P to snipe high templars and disable arbiters, or if I just let mind controlled units be an exception to "terran units can't break dark swarm").

I thought I was going to be moving Dark Archon down a tier, but...ehh...I also kind of forgot about feedback before I dived into doing all the unit comparisons, and feedback is good on every race that's not protoss.  Maybe it's still ok in D-tier?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 04, 2022, 08:19:47 AM
Mm, I think upgrading Devourer may be generous.  There are some concocted situations where they are *moderately okay* (generally when they are performing the role that Blizz intended, e.g. softening up Battlecruisers for a pack of Mutalisks or something) but even when in fights that are completely their niche, only mildly outperform the competition, and when out of their niche are just garbage.  At least I can see some sort of bizarro uber-late game Terran building Ghosts if they had resources to burn and godlike Lockdown micro, and Scouts merely by being a unit that can be built comparatively early that both shoots air & ground will very slowly hard-counter certain units that don't shoot up with its tickle laser.  Very bad, but as you've noted, Devourer is basically a style build that isn't great even when fulfilling its theoretical role.

Incidentally, while talking low tiers, I might defend Firebat a bit, albeit mildly...  I think it's a little tricky to gauge how good it is because the stuff it counters is situational.  They're obviously garbage in TvT and TvZ is usually where they're hyped (Dark Swarm, stick them in a bunker to stop Zergling attacks), but if in TvP you *know* you had an opponent going mass Zealots, then Stim'd Firebats are great.  And hell, Protoss does tend to threaten Terran with Zealots early these days, just the problem is that Vultures also counter Zealots, but are much more useful long-term and vs. everything else due to mines, being able to threaten runbys to kill workers, etc.  Whether that's enough to hit E tier, I don't know, but you can argue that the mere existence of Firebats makes it so certain strategies aren't seen, and if in some sort of "unit reshuffle" fantasy scenario, they can potentially have their niches shine (e.g. if alternate T lost Vulture access, or if Z lost Mutalisk access).  I dunno if it's enough to move to E tier, but throwing that out there.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 14, 2022, 04:23:55 AM
Mm, I think upgrading Devourer may be generous.  There are some concocted situations where they are *moderately okay* (generally when they are performing the role that Blizz intended, e.g. softening up Battlecruisers for a pack of Mutalisks or something) but even when in fights that are completely their niche, only mildly outperform the competition, and when out of their niche are just garbage.  At least I can see some sort of bizarro uber-late game Terran building Ghosts if they had resources to burn and godlike Lockdown micro, and Scouts merely by being a unit that can be built comparatively early that both shoots air & ground will very slowly hard-counter certain units that don't shoot up with its tickle laser.  Very bad, but as you've noted, Devourer is basically a style build that isn't great even when fulfilling its theoretical role.

Well I mean, the reason Scout got moved up from the lowest tier is cause I've seen pros build scout recently.  Even though traditionally I think of Scout as possibly the worst unit in the game, it fills a niche of unit that can shoot down.  And Devourer's getting upgraded for the same reason.  I've seen them in more than one game (one game in ASL, one not in ASL).  I've heard Tasteless comment "he might make a devourerer here."

The odd one out from this tier at least in modern ASL is ghosts.  I've seen them built by pros but...I don't think I've seen them in ASL (it was a weird free for all game where a terran went bio and then needed to deal with carriers so made ghosts for lockdown).  And they used to have some super lategame applications in TvT (for nukes specifically--although I don't know if they still get used for that).

Quote
Incidentally, while talking low tiers, I might defend Firebat a bit, albeit mildly...  I think it's a little tricky to gauge how good it is because the stuff it counters is situational.  They're obviously garbage in TvT and TvZ is usually where they're hyped (Dark Swarm, stick them in a bunker to stop Zergling attacks), but if in TvP you *know* you had an opponent going mass Zealots, then Stim'd Firebats are great.

No, firebats are not a counter to zealots.  Not even in the casual games I used to play where we all had 50 or less APM.

Zealots deal 17 DPS.  Firebats deal 17 DPS.

Zealots have 160 HP.  Firebats have 50 HP.

Firebats cost a little bit less (50/25 instead of 100/0).  but that's not enough to make up for a 3-1 stat difference.  One zealot beats two firebats if you just A-move them at each other.  One zealot costs a lot less than two firebats.  (Although for what it's worth, if you stim the firebats, they do win the 2v1; this requires researching stim in TvP, though).

Quote
And hell, Protoss does tend to threaten Terran with Zealots early these days, just the problem is that Vultures also counter Zealots, but are much more useful long-term and vs. everything else due to mines, being able to threaten runbys to kill workers, etc.  Whether that's enough to hit E tier, I don't know, but you can argue that the mere existence of Firebats makes it so certain strategies aren't seen, and if in some sort of "unit reshuffle" fantasy scenario, they can potentially have their niches shine (e.g. if alternate T lost Vulture access, or if Z lost Mutalisk access).  I dunno if it's enough to move to E tier, but throwing that out there.

If Terran lost vultures vs toss I...suspect they would just make marines and medics instead?  Marines vs zealots is a lot like hydras vs zealots, ranged unit that punishes zealots for approaching, but arguably a little better cause marines don't deal half damage to zealots the way hydras do.  But more importantly marines only cost minerals which lets you build more tanks and get more factory research.  And they can actually fight against dragoons as well.

The big reason marines aren't built against protoss is splash generally, and Reavers in particular, but firebats aren't really that much better against splash (50 HP instead of 40 HP).  Still very vulnerable to splash.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 14, 2022, 06:15:36 AM
Well, round of 16:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFLNgvGq5nQ

Three terrans and a zerg.  The TvTs were about what you expect.  Vulture tank goliath wraith dropship.  (Marines early on).

The one interesting TvT moment was when an earlygame pure mass goliath build just busted out against tanks, including moving shot chasing down tanks.  So that apparently works in small numbers.

But the main story was the zerg (Shine) who...just perpetually plays non-standard.  Opened Lurkers instead of Mutas against terrans in 4 games out of 5 that he played (that went to lair tech), including a lurker guardian hydra push.  Infested a command center with a queen and landed it to start building infested terrans.  Also just a 4 pool against a terran in there.

I don't know what to make of all this, since he is considered seriously non-standard, maybe I should take his style with a grain of salt with respect to the tiers?  The big thing I think could change is bumping up the tier on Lurker, since apparently he's able to lean on that as his default opening TvZ instead of muta (which I thought just wasn't really a thing in pro TvZ anymore).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on September 14, 2022, 12:33:58 PM
The Guardian push was pretty cool, even if it didn't work out.

On Zealots vs. Firebats: Yeah, but the Zealots deal single-target damage, while the Firebats deal splash damage.  You don't want firebats vs. a 1-zealot harass, but 10 zealots vs. 13 firebats should be firebat favored, right?  The firebat attacks should be hitting ~3 Zealots at once.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 16, 2022, 12:37:04 AM
On Zealots vs. Firebats: Yeah, but the Zealots deal single-target damage, while the Firebats deal splash damage.  You don't want firebats vs. a 1-zealot harass, but 10 zealots vs. 13 firebats should be firebat favored, right?  The firebat attacks should be hitting ~3 Zealots at once.


In small numbers, pros can just micro to avoid splash damage--you see this regularly when zerg players use two zerglings to take out a firebat.

Even in casual games I used to play, where we didn't micro, zerglings got destroyed by firebats, but zealots tended to do enough natural spreading that they usually won fights against firebats, no micro required.

But sure, there might be a point where the firebats would just reach critical mass and there would be too many units even for a pro to manually spread.

The thing about critical mass arguments, though is that marines also reach a critical mass against zealots, where zealots struggle to fight them cause marines are ranged and zealots die trying to reach them.  And marines can actually damage dragoons, reavers, buildings, etc, which firebats don't at all.

Like...when Light went surprise bio and won in the last ASL finals, it was all marines and medics and siege tanks, not a single firebat built:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djZt3n1Po6s&t=6840s
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 23, 2022, 11:08:50 PM
Group B and C I don't think there was anything too exciting.  Although what there was in group B was several protoss vs terrans where there were no carriers built, so...still feeling like it's time to downgrade carriers, and downgrade anti-air options.

Group D:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUuabLzqZME

Action once again went for guardians against terran.  Mini made Dark Archons against herO (like...five or six dark archons).

Also, not exactly niche units, but some niche builds.  Double gate mass zealot into expand PvZ.  Corsair double robo mass reavers PvZ.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2022, 07:01:46 AM
ASL semifinals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYFKTINvULA

So the interesting thing here is that hydra lurker defiler was the lategame weapon of choice.  Using defilers to plague enemy bio balls, and then one shotting plagued units with hydras.  It's definitely an interesting unit composition for the matchup.  Naturally good at taking out science vessels.  This isn't coming out of nowhere, either--artosis said he was facing a lot of this on ladder.

Also, a few guardian plays (by a player other than Shine who is known for unusual builds).  They all failed but...it's a sign that Guardians might be a bit more mainstream generally right now.

---

I should go back and look through some of the quarterfinals, but one definite takeaway is that Carriers were built zero times this entire ASL.  Which...should both lower the evaluation of carriers, and a bunch of anti-air units that were propped up by the general hype around Carriers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2022, 08:19:30 AM
So...I've been rethinking the whole trade approach to the starcraft unit tier list, and concluded it gets a bit weird when there's stuff like A-tier being all protoss units.  So...we get a bunch of looks at how good a unit would be in the hands of protoss, and none or very little in the hands of other races.

Thinking it's probably better to just look at a unit in all 9 matchups (extrapolating for the matchups where the unit would be traded).

Going with a simple scoring system like

4: matchup defining (defilers in ZvT, vultures in TvP, Siege Tanks in TvT)
3: mostly core, weird to play without them, but possible (Marine/Medic TvZ, Lurkers ZvT, High Templar PvT)
2: Nice to have (Dark Templar in every matchup, Ultras ZvT, Valkyries TvZ)
1: Has uses, but won't come up much (Dark Archons PvZ, Queens ZvT, Battlecruiser TvZ)
0: no use in the matchup.

So eg some samples with S tier units:

Zergling

ZvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining).

ZvT: 4/4 (matchup defining).  As impressed as I am by the hydra lurker defiler build, it still leans on zerglings for a long time.

ZvP: 3/4 (mostly core).  Used for early defence, some rushes, defiler food if the game gets that late.  But two builds stand out as mostly abandoning lings--lurker contains and hydra allins.

TvT: 3/4 (mostly core).  Are they more important than...any of the factory units?  I...don't think they are.  Like if one Terran had Vultures and one had Zerglings, I'd favour the vulture player.  If one terran had goliaths and the other had zerglings, I'd favour the goliath player.  But they are a superb unit to drop on tanks.

TvP: 4/4 (matchup defining).  Pretty sure Vulture Ling just destroys protoss--absolutely can't get map control.

TvZ: 3/4 (mostly core).  The rushes would be a problem; zerg's vulnerable to zergling rushes.  But going with all the other standard assumptions, which is to say terran zerglings would be coded to not fix terran's weakness to dark swarm, and would not get healed by medics...I think eventually terran would stop making them past some earlygame rush options.

PvP: 2/4 (nice to have?)  TBH, I actually haven't thought about this one too deeply, I assume they would drop off fast but there would be some kind of cheese cause they are better than zealots when in small enough numbers.

PvT: 2/4 (nice to have?)  Long games I think Zealots are generally better, but lings might be better when dropped out of dropships onto tank lines?  Might be worth making one or two to run in front and mine drag.  Might be worth it for just having a mobile army with map control sometimes.

PvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining) Um, yeah, zerglings destroy hydras cause unlike zealots they can catch them, and that seems like a big problem.  Add to that some really good cheese/pressure builds toss would pick up.

---

4s: 4
3s: 3
2s: 2

29/36

Siege Tank

TvT: 4/4

TvP: 4/4

TvZ: 2/4 (it can come up as a response to heavy lurker or heavy ultra play, but not an every game thing, and not the only possible response)

PvP: 4/4 (siege tanks would break this matchup)

PvT: 4/4 (Terran can't deal with siege tanks)

PvZ: 3/4 (Honestly I'm not super confident about this one so I'm hedging a little.  Siege Tanks might just be better against hydras than protoss tools like reavers and high templar, but...then again maybe not?  Could be anywhere from 2/4 to 4/4)

ZvZ: 0/4 (can't shoot up, lol).

ZvT: 4/4 (So...terran has to open either with goliaths or marines to handle mutas.  I assume zerg siege tanks would just break either of those comps unless zerg lost something super extreme like mutas or zerglings).

ZvP: 4/4 (a zerg hydra contain or hydra lurker contain backed up by siege tanks just sounds like it breaks the matchup.  Unless zerg loses like...hydra this sounds awful).

4s: 6
3s: 1
2s: 1
0s: 1

29/36

Mutalisk

ZvZ: 4/4

ZvT: 3/4 (technically possible to play without them as Shine demonstrated, but...still tempted to call this 4/4 just due to how much everyone hypes them up here).

ZvP: 2/4 (You don't need to make a single muta in any given ZvP, but the option is nice)

TvT: 4/4 (A little torn between 3 and 4 here, I don't think this would devolve into pure muta vs muta like ZvZ, but also we're talking about a flying unit that can fight goliaths and turrets reasonably well, and is way better than wraiths at picking off tanks, that sounds like it would suddenly become a real focus of the match).

TvP: 2/4 (I don't know that you make mutas every game, cause you do know that toss will at least have mass goons, and can really shut them down with the right tech, but the option for cheese seems nice).

TvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

PvP: 2/4 (I think both players are kinda forced to go stargate.  If one player skips stargate, well, mutas can fight pure dragoon just fine.  But once it's clear that both players won't just die to mutas, probably don't actually build them, just make the opponent worried about them).

PvT: 4/4 (Mutas break this matchup beyond recognition.  Vulture Tank can not shoot up).

PvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

4s: 5
3s: 1
2s: 3

29/36


---

Okay, I did not plan that at all, but all three S-tier units came out at 29/36.  That's...kinda neat, although who knows if I ranked everything perfectly here.

The real test will be some of the lower tiers, of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 19, 2022, 07:25:51 PM
Moonlight Proleague Scan vs Hm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wy2Ja9HZb8

What is now a fairly meta hydra lurker defiler game...except that this one went into queens and then ultras in super lategame.

(There was another game between these two that went ultra first where zerg lost).

Ultra switches in games like this are a little bit awkward cause you're getting ranged upgrades.  Queen switches are interesting cause the response to hydra lurker defiler is siege tanks, but Hm really needed to get into a stable winning position before building queens cause it takes several minutes for the investment to pay off.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 26, 2022, 07:46:23 AM
Moonlight Proleague Scan vs Ruin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXFFORxdDmQ

The interesting part of this game was a medic marine push against protoss that killed the natural expansion.  (Transitions from there into a pretty normal game).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 31, 2022, 07:57:20 AM
Starcraft

CasterMuse Narak StarLeague Season 5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mY22WjULVA

Dark Archon used.  Basically kills all the mutalisks.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 06, 2023, 05:18:56 AM
ASL back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_7WW-oqR8s

Games notable for meta stuff--game 2 TvZ--lategame hydra lurker defiler still a popular build.

TvT notable for how big an advantage was picked up from wraiths, but that's not so out of the ordinary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in919xzb7s0

Games notable for meta stuff--game 4 has a 5 pool that fails into the zerg macroing up with mutas and eventually winning.  Valkyries still very meta vs mutas according to Artosis.

Game 5 involved a failed lurker rush, but the game might have just been lost long before that as the terran attacked and killed too many drones.  Regardless, lurker rush still continues to not really impress me at ASL level play--very low success rate.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2023, 08:30:46 AM
Starcraft

ASL Group D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r9k0fnE3Hs

So in PvZ there is a dark archon that did work, as well as defilers (that frankly didn't get very much done and got feedbacked by the dark archon).

There was also a successful marine medic rush against protoss.  Zerg very reliably going muta scourge vs protoss as well.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 13, 2023, 09:29:46 PM
Starcraft

ASL group E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4ed2cFyhjY

So the interesting thing is not necessarily in the games, but in the commentary--Artosis is mentioning that more terrans than usual qualified, and they mostly did so by getting upsets over zergs considered better than them, and mostly from this new valkyrie build which uses often many valkyries and doesn't get science vessels fast at all.  There is a pretty big downside to this build, though, which is hold position lurkers, which are demonstrated in one of these games and did substantially swing the game in the zerg's favour.

Otherwise...got to see a bit of mech vs zerg, but playing from behind, and then was out of position with valkyries and let all the tanks die to mutas, so...nothing too special.

Saw carriers vs terran--they're back after being gone for basically a whole season.  Yeah, they absolutely smashed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 15, 2023, 08:28:51 AM
Starcraft

ASL Group F

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK1Syh7-kL0

Stork goes carriers every game.  Wins one, loses the other two.  An actual example of carriers not working!

Other than that, a guardian push from zerg that was just a terrible idea that failed.  More hydra lurker defiler as well, but just got way behind early.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 29, 2023, 05:18:28 PM
Starcraft ASL round of 16 group A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUxSdyc2ie0

So...a lot of zerg vs zerg, which contained the same 3 units as usual.  (Some very interesting zerg vs zergs, but in terms of was there surprise hive tech--no, there wasn't).

Some zerg vs Terran, which had interesting stuff.  The first instance of Ultralisks all season (which was successful)--involved the zerg taking an early third at a natural of another base on a 4 player map, which guaranteed them a 4th gas, letting them get ultras and defilers at the same time.  The other cute play was a slow overlord drop of lurkers when muta harass was doing well.  Terran made valkyries, which just left them with no way to handle the lurkers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 03, 2023, 05:55:22 AM
Starcraft ASL round of 16 group B

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vELbjTuBn7Q

3 terrans and a zerg.

The TvT games were a bit interesting, cause there were some very good demonstrations of why everyone goes mass vulture in TvT with a few games won off of just early mass vulture snowball.  Otherwise, relatively normal stuff.  Quite a bit of wraith play, specifically going wraiths when ahead significantly in economy, as it forces the other player to respond with goliaths which really locks down their mobility.  One valkyrie.

Zerg was all the style expected of this season--a lot of hydra lurker defiler lategame.  The one interesting zerg play was zerg getting a very early scout on a factory play, figuring out vultures were coming, and getting speed hydras into the base.  Trying to remember if there were any valkyries this time--I don't actually remember seeing valkyries.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 03, 2023, 06:16:12 AM
(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer, Scout, Ghost

OK, so revisiting this, I think the candidates for movement (based on the new season) are...

Carriers down

Hydras up

Lurkers up

Valkyries up

Ultralisk down

Goliath down

Queen down

Defilers up

Arbiters up

Not necessarily a full tier of movement from all of these.  Probably doesn't make sense to have hydra above goliath, for example.  And I don't think Ultras belong in the same tier as guardians for example.  Will need to look in more detail.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 04, 2023, 11:58:37 PM
Starcraft ASL Ro16 group C

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXw0_XHs_xg&t=7626s

A few interesting things going on here.

Light demonstrates his mass valyrie into mech build against zerg.  The build still opens on bio, but gets upgrades for mech, and about 5 valkyries.  Valkyries are a lot better than I thought at killing scourge before the scourge hit--I thought because of the animation of the missiles that scourge would nearly always hit, but nope.

There's also a new build against protoss that goes cloak wraith--specifically because protosses have become so good with shuttle reaver and wraiths hunt down the shuttle.  One wraith against a shuttle as a drop was always a thing, but multiple wraiths seems to be used to answer protosses who just sit outside the Terran's base with a Reaver and keep them contained forever.

Also featured, a lategame zerg that had Ling Ultra Defiler Hydra.  So far zergs have generally picked one--either lurker hydra defiler, or ultra defiler.  But here's a zerg (with a ton of resources) who actually got both.  Possibly spurred on by the presence of battlecruisers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 06, 2023, 01:45:50 AM
ok, trying this rating system again, but with goliaths/hydras:

4: matchup defining (defilers in ZvT, vultures in TvP, Siege Tanks in TvT)
3: mostly core, weird to play without them, but possible (Marine/Medic TvZ, Lurkers ZvT, High Templar PvT)
2: Nice to have (Dark Templar in every matchup, Ultras ZvT, Valkyries TvZ)
1: Has uses, but won't come up much (Dark Archons PvZ, Queens ZvT, Battlecruiser TvZ)
0: no use in the matchup.

Goliath

ZvZ: 3 probably?  Compared to hydras they are 50% more expensive, for...a lot more durability (against zerglings and mutas, they are about double the durability of a hydra because +1 armour is actually ridiculously relevant against both these units), 36% more air damage (less than I thought because their attack speed is a bit slow, although 8 range and really punishing enemy mutas for sharking in and out is what matters), and 63% more ground damage (because zerglings take half damage from hydras).  That said, goliaths need critical mass, are very weak as an attack unit because Sunkens destroy them, so some ZvZs would still end before Goliaths.

ZvT: 1?  In the currently popular Defiler/Hydra/Lurker build, I think they could fill the role that Hydras currently have, while being better against marines (1 armour, not explosive damage) better against firebats (take 1/4 damage from them) and better at sniping science vessels (8 range).  So that would suggest maybe a 2?  I'm not fully sure, though, cause you build hydras with the plan of landing plague, and hydras do shoot faster than goliaths so they are better at that role.  Guess I'll split the difference and say 1.

ZvP: 1?  I think you nearly always want hydras in this matchup, but the 8 range might be nice in some situations.  Sniping observers during a lurker contain, for example.

TvZ: 1.  They're excellent for beginners, but at ASL level play they're pretty niche.

TvT: 3.  They are the best anti-air that terran gets, and air becomes relevant because siege tanks shut down the ground, so nearly always get built.

TvP: 4?  Hard to know what to put here, cause without them protoss probably goes carrier every game.  But Goliaths are a very common unit in the matchup in longer games just overall even in games without carriers--hits shuttles, hits arbiters.  In that role they're probably a 3.  If we put a lot of weight on not auto losing to carriers, 4.

PvZ: 0?  Maybe this should be 1, but I really don't see a use for it in this matchup.  Closest I can think of is that it's an anti-air unit that builds out of a robo, which lets you do a mass reaver opening and be able to tech switch into not dying to mutas?  But my intuition says you should probably just go Corsairs anyway.

PvT: 1?  I think you would almost always build more dragoons instead, BUT this is a matchup where getting lots of robos is an actual thing you can reasonably do already, so maybe you'd make goliaths in a pinch.  They are also better against air, and I guess terran has being doing mass wraiths so ok, maybe.

PvP: 2.  With the range boost, pretty good at sniping shuttles.  They lose bad to dragoons, but sometimes you get these reaver shuttle standoffs, and I think one or two could contribute to those.

Total 16.

Hydra:

ZvZ: 0

ZvT: 2.  Could be argued higher as a counter to some early cheeses, but mostly they're a nice tech option with defilers these days.

ZvP: 4.  Basically the unit in the matchup.

TvZ: 0.  I think there are a few arguments for 1 instead of 0 here, but they don't really hold up.  Best argument is probably as something you would build against ultras, cause they deal full damage to ultras, but like...two marines do deal more damage to ultras provided they stim and are equal on upgrades.  Another argument would be busting sunkens, but...I actually don't think they are better than marines at that role, because while they do deal full damage to sunkens, they also take more damage from sunkens.

TvT: 3.  They'd be a barracks unit, so you probably wouldn't build them all game once a lot of upgrades kick in, but they are much, much better than marines, and you would build them for a while.  They're roughly even when fighting vultures, although slower and don't have mines, but they get built out of the otherwise garbage barracks.  They are also quite a bit better than vultures against goliaths, tanks, wraiths.  They might also be the best thing to drop out of dropships on top of tank lines--like maybe not after getting tons of upgrades, but early on for sure.

TvP: 4.  Vulture Hydra would just demolish anything that's not a reaver.

PvZ: 2.  You might just make hydras as a unit to go even with...hydras.  And just rely on high templar or reavers to actually win engagements.  Not positive about this one, but sounds like a nice option.

PvT: 0.  Dragoons are just better against terran units I think.  Except when dropped out of shuttles on top of siege tanks, but Zealots are better at that.

PvP: 2.  They're a lot worse against reavers.  But there's probably some nice rushes you can do that hit before reavers--protoss are pretty scared of hydras earlygame.

Total: 17

Hm, yeah, Goliaths same tier as Hydras seems pretty reasonable.  I guess other question is does hydra move up, or Gol move down?  Let's compare to medic+marine I guess?

Medic+Marine

ZvZ: 2. Assuming marines build off of the spawning pool and don't require additional tech, it's not bad.  Can build one marine for 50 minerals to deny scouting/hunt overlords.  Can build one marine as part of a ling allin to break past ling walls.

ZvT: 2.  Plague+marines is better than plague+hydras.

ZvP: 1.  Generally worse than hydras, but comes out earlier and deal more damage for the cost, and that might matter in a few situations.

TvZ: 3.  You can go mech, but it is pretty weird to do so.

TvT: 1.  They are pretty bad in this matchup.  Used a little bit early on cause only unit, but you switch off of them as soon as you can.  I have a policy of not giving too much credit for "only unit you can build", so continuing that here.

TvP: 1.  Like TvT, bad tech you switch off of right away.

PvZ: 3.  Uhh, yeah, I think you would just go Medic+marine with Corsairs to force zerg into hydras and they are very sad.

PvT: 0.  Yeah, just make a zealot instead

PvP: 0.  Also just make a zealot instead.

Total: 13

Okay, Hydra up to B tier then.

I think while I am here I will also move Lurker up to C tier, as I assume that is happening, though I should do the comparisons later.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord, Hydra
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV, Lurker

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer, Scout, Ghost
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 15, 2023, 05:45:33 AM
The games on Seventy-Six with tiny ramps which encourage weird stuff like Terrans building Wraiths vs. Protoss were cool.

Anyway, going back to the Firebats debate earlier, the casters mentioned - and this is super super SUPER niche - but there is one cool play Firebats are notably useful at if you have godlike pro APM: Zerg can sometimes stack Lurkers in the exact same spot when defending a ramp, because apparently a burrowed, Irradiated Lurker doesn't emit splash damage?  So basically you can do that and make it so that science vessels can't Irradiate all the lurkers quickly, they have to wait for them to die one at a time so they can click on the next one.  BUT some player had a Defensive Matrix'd, Stimmed Firebat run up the ramp instead and could clear all the stacked lurkers quickly.  That's cool, if weird and impractical for 99% of players!

Also, Best vs. Action in the round of 8 featured amazing DARK ARCHON action.  Check it out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiXDOyBSLGQ
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 18, 2023, 03:22:38 AM
Anyway, going back to the Firebats debate earlier, the casters mentioned - and this is super super SUPER niche - but there is one cool play Firebats are notably useful at if you have godlike pro APM: Zerg can sometimes stack Lurkers in the exact same spot when defending a ramp, because apparently a burrowed, Irradiated Lurker doesn't emit splash damage?  So basically you can do that and make it so that science vessels can't Irradiate all the lurkers quickly, they have to wait for them to die one at a time so they can click on the next one.  BUT some player had a Defensive Matrix'd, Stimmed Firebat run up the ramp instead and could clear all the stacked lurkers quickly.  That's cool, if weird and impractical for 99% of players!

Yeah, I mean, firebats are just relevant specifically for Terran vs Zerg.  In Terran vs Zerg they're like...somewhere in the range of 5th to 7th best unit for Terran (depending how you value Valkyries and Wraiths).

I don't think other races would build them vs zerg.  (Maybe in very niche builds)

I don't think other races would build them against terran or protoss.  (Maybe in very niche builds)

Quote
Also, Best vs. Action in the round of 8 featured amazing DARK ARCHON action.  Check it out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiXDOyBSLGQ

Haven't seen that one yet--we've fallen behind on the round of 8 and are just catching up now.

We did just watch JYJ vs Soulkey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz3_i8XtflQ

And that in game 5 has 1 base 2 port Wraith where Soulkey defends by getting burrow and queens.  (Would have been better to get a hydra den, but JYJ mindgamed Soulkey by walling off with tech every game, and then doing builds that were not weak to hydras, so this was the one game where Soulkey didn't make hydras).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 13, 2023, 03:46:27 AM
So playing LFT again has me thinking about tiering the FFT jobs though a ban-a-thon.

Because the order of these can vary depending on what gets banned before them, it's more interesting to just start these over each time.

As a reminder these work as follows

* JP costs and unlock costs are assumed to be important factors (low-ish grinding, not using glitches)
* Fights are assumed to be hard enough--however that is accomplished (for the first few classes banned this assumption means something on the level of a solo challenge).
* You can be in banned jobs briefly to unlock later jobs that are not banned.  Just avoid getting an advantage out of going through banned jobs (like you might not jump while going through lancers).
* This is for specifically the PSX version.  Not really interested in rating WotL.

Anyway, #1 and #2 in ban-a-thons as always are going to be the things that people actually ban in normal playthroughs (stuff like Math Skill and Auto Potion, so Calculator and Chemist).

And specifically, on a solo challenge, math skill and auto potion usually need to be banned or heavily restricted.

The case for banning Chemist first is that I did actually do a solo run once where I had to ban Auto Potion but not Math Skill (since the rules of the challenge made actually learning math skill tricky enough that it didn't happen till mid chapter 4).

The case for banning math skill first is that, in a party of four people with goofy or restricted builds, say, one character with auto-potion doesn't necessarily break the game, but one character with math skill absolutely does.  Every character with auto potion does also break things (which is why it also has a case to be banned on solo challenges).

At the end of the day, I think there's just more scenarios where Auto-potion can be not in need of banning, than scenarios where math skill can be not in need of banning.

1. Calculator

2. Chemist

And now moving on to the classes that people don't really tend to get banned, and the first one of these is really easy.

3. Summoner

The PSX tuning of Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit is obviously overtuned, remain good throughout the game.  The only real other ban option here is Wizard because that does stop the use of Magic Attack Up.  But you can just go Short Charge and its fine.

4.

Moving on to #4

So here's what I think builds look like with those three banned.  The mages pick up black magic, then train a magic job.  Time Mage for Short Charge Meteor is probably the best, but I don't think there's big gaps between these necessarily--you also want some white magic users for raise, the Oracle SCC can famously sail through Chapter 4 with no resets once it has all the JP it needs.  The physical builds suffer for a while, but eventually get good; carried early on by mages with black magic.

I think the common thread of all of this is Wizard.  There's maybe a case for banning Gained JP Up, but eh, you can coast for so long on black magic that you can piece together a real build in that time.  Wizard isn't even necessarily retaining a ton of lategame relevance (there's no summon magic to place on Wizard) but the earlygame boost, which lasts from Chapters 1-3 is plenty.

4. Wizard.

5.

So the 5th class to get banned

I think for a long time, a lot of characters will be slotting White Magic for raise and a lot of characters will be slotting Time Magic for haste.  There will be somewhat of a shift towards having some physical jobs in the party at this point, probably a mix of Monk/Ninja/Lancer/gun user (Mediator).  Hasting all of these is good.  Hasting mages who attack with staves and sticks is also good.  Raising Monks and Ninjas can be important--low HP melee units.  Gained JP Up is also very important for every build.

There's going to be a point in chapter 1 and early chapter 2 that is just kind-of rough, which might be an argument for banning squire (remove gained JP Up, make the rough period last longer).  But...even with a very slow JP progression I do think gear kind-of bails you out in chapter 2 (the cross helmet and gold armour from Agrias tossed onto perhaps a Lancer.  The gun from Mustadio tossed onto a Mediator).  So I don't think it's time to ban squire just yet.

Between Priest and Time Mage, and with a bit of a focus on Chapter 1 (cause things should get easier in chapter 2)...I think Haste might be a bit better than raise in Chapter 1 specifically.  Less MP--specifically mages tend to start with 18 or 19 MP, so that's two hastes or one raise.  Noticeable in chapter 1, not noticeable later, but chapter 1 is looking like the pain point.

While lategame is less of a concern here, I also think Time Mage might have more lategame stuff to offer.  Short Charge + Meteor is a bit better than Holy (although holy is available much sooner).  Teleport is excellent.  MP Switch from spillover can be great on a physical character, particularly if there's a Monk MP battery spamming Chakra for mages--MP Switch is great on such a monk.

5. Time Mage

6.

So...Ninja is traditionally considered a stronger character (once you get there).  Priest is the only good revival.  And playing without Gained JP Up makes all the builds suffer.

I think I lean towards Priest here.  Cutting Gained JP Up would hurt, but chapter 2 giving excellent armor for lancers as well as guns...you'd live.  Missing priest will also hurt early on (have relevant buffs very early; protect, shell.  Gets good offense for assassination missions very fast if you rush Holy).  But will also hurt for the whole game (no raise, very relevant with Phoenix Down already banned).

6. Priest

7.

I think now it pretty much has to be Squires.  Oracles are JP hungry.  Monks are JP hungry.  Lancers are JP hungry.  Ninjas suck while you're spending time in Thief but are good when you unlock them.  Unlike before with Haste and Raise there's no real core chapter 1 functionality you're missing out on.  Just hurts every build, and there's no obvious ban that makes you suffer more in Chapter 1.

7. Squire

8.

So ok, what do I think would hurt now?  Banning Ninja would certainly hurt.  Ninjas good on their own.  Ninjas are a good carrier for other classes.  And banning Lancer would hurt.  Lancers are effective faster than Ninjas--basically start of Chapter 2 when the good spear shows up and is higher WP than swords--even with no jumps learned, that character will melee jump and have tons of HP with gaffy/Agrias armour.  I normally associate unlocking Ninjas with about mid-Chapter 2, but might be closer to end of Chapter 2 without Gained JP Up.  And it's not like Lancer doesn't stay good, they will smash all of Chapters 2 and 3, and just need to switch to a job with hats in Chapter 4.  I...think I might be leaning Lancer, interestingly enough?

8. Lancer

9.

At this point, I think it realistically has to be Ninja.  Probably the best remaining end-goal in its own right, a strong carrier for several other classes (highest PA, highest Speed.  And not very dependent on skills from other classes that are candidates (happy to take Concentrate, Move+2, from classes that are definitely not candidates to be banned).

9. Ninja

10.

So I think this is between Monk and Oracle.  They both have fairly valuable long-term skillsets.  Life Drain is great for bosses, for example.  Silence Song wins some fights.  Revive is a revival skill, not a good one, but it is one.  Earth Slash can't miss and has long range, although does have some limitations (limited against enemies with earth clothes or who float, of which there are several).  They both also have relevant RSM.  Oracle has Defense Up, which is probably straight up the best support ability right now, and if you make a dedicated oracle (which is a good enough build) you can get Defense Up on your whole party via spillover.  Likewise, for Monk; Monk has a lot of good reaction abilities, HP Restore which could be given through spillover from a dedicated monk in the party, Hammedo which would require a bit more investment.  Monk is a lot better in Chapter 1, dealing 36 damage while oracle is dealing 18.  Oracle is probably better in chapter 2, dealing something like 63 with their physical.  Monks can get to 7 naked PA by reaching level 5, and buy power wrists relatively early in Chapter 2 to hit 8 PA--60 damage wave fists, so they can match that damage.  The thing that monks lack in Chapter 2 is durability, very low HP due to no hats, but that actually can be bypassed with equip armour, and equip armor no longer competes with Gained JP Up, so that's something.

Where else would you be going at this point?  Draw Out, which you would take to Oracle or maybe Geo.  Dancer which would...lead into probably Draw Out.  Potentially an attack up gun user, maybe with charge, but also said gun user probably sets Yin Yang for some fights.

To be clear, I think it's still down to Monk or Oracle.  Spillover Defence Up and spillover HP restore, as well as just being online much faster than classes like Dancer, Samurai, etc are the selling points here.

There's a logical part of my brain saying this should be Monk, cause it just allows for pretty good chapter 1 units, while still working towards something meaningful.

But man...I've recently been playing Monk in LFT, where there's innate gained JP Up, all the JP costs are much cheaper, several monk abilities have been buffed on top of having JP costs reduced, there's not nearly as many earth immune enemies, and equip armor got cost reduced to 300 (instead of 500 like in vanilla) and Monk still has felt a little slow on JP, and kinda underwhelming to be in due to not having a hat (never managed to afford 300 JP Equip Armor in that LFT run due to a pre-learned break skill in Knight).  I also am leaning towards valuing Defence Up higher than HP Restore.  Especially on a class that also brings life drain--the fights where Defence Up isn't superb tend to be trivialized by Life Drain.  But also Defense Up is 400 JP.  Easier to grant from spillover.

And a lot of builds seem interested in using some Oracle--Samurais often end up there.  Mediator's going to pass through there.  Even Monk with Yin Yang used to be a build that would get hyped up on GameFAQs board.  (And...sure, I'm thinking maybe you do learn Paralyze and set Yin Yang on a monk--your other options with the current bans aren't great).

10. Oracle

11...

For #11 now it's gotta be monk, right?  All the upsides to Monk remain--having equip armour as an option, having good Chapter 1 numbers, surely they now also bring the most damage for assassination missions right...?  Uh, no, wrong, actually.  Geomancer with Attack Up 12 PA and a Platinum Sword deals 192.  Same setup and martial arts deals 144.  Hitting Geomancer would also completely kneecap any Samurai build.

Although, hold up, before I put too much hype into Attack Up, Concentrate is a reasonable replacement for Attack Up, and Monk is offering a lot of stuff like some level of revival, range, good reaction abilities.  And just in general the only skillset you can start pursuing early (Neither Dance or Draw Out come out early).


11. Monk

12...

Think this next one does have to be Geomancer, though.  Already offered the most damage, and also banning Geomancer now just incidentally makes Samurai kind of homeless--no high MA job left to inherit Draw Out.

12. Geomancer

13...

What's left?  Samurai, Dancer, Thief, Archer, Mediator, Bard, Knight (and Mime, but we're not desperate enough to unlock those).

So...Knight has my attention.  Good in Chapter 1 comparatively.  Good RSM--Equip Shield looks solid.  Equip Sword on a class like Thief or Archer will be a good damage option when damage is needed.  Now probably the destination for prospective Samurai (higher MA mult than Mediator, can wear Rune Blade and Ageis Shield and Wizard Robe).  Knight Swords exist, and you will get a free Excalibur from Orlandu too.  Ice Healing might even be in the conversation (healing teammates with Ice Brand weapon attacks).

I'm looking at Mediator.  Guns good.  Equip Gun good.  And...in the event that playing with just these classes with no grinding is rough, Mediator offers some of the best grind payoff (Invite -> Poach.  Invite to get elemental guns.  Brave/Faith modifying).

I'm looking at Archer.  Charge is some damage.  Concentrate is nice.  Arrow guard pretty good, maybe not something you get from spillover alone, but something you might consider getting on a lot of characters.

Dancer, once unlocked, trivializes some fights, mostly non-boss fights, though.

If I'm considering the boss blits potential of Equip Sword thieves, I should also think about Two Hands...well...actually, hold on I'm doubting that a bit now.  900 JP on Samurai.  Only good thing to two hands are like...swords, so once again this brings us back to swords and Knights in some way.

I'm actually thinking that the Jenga piece that hurts the most here is Knight.  Make the playthrough hurt in chapter 1.  Make the playthrough suffer for damage options against zodiacs.

13. Knight

14...

With Knight gone, I'm immediately thinking Charge Guns.  So Archer and Mediator on the table.  It's hard to imagine it would be something like dancer--a team full of charging gunners with shields and arrow guard is going to be pretty good at the kind of fight Dancer tends to help with.  Probably need to break up the dream team of Archer+Mediator.

Archer would continue taking away chapter 1 toys (not that archer is amazing in Chapter 1, but they're not Thief), remove the one remaining source of being able to wear a shield, remove the pretty good Arrow Guard as an option.  And probably cause more damage problems in zodiac fights.

Mediator goes here if the game is getting hard enough to justify invite+poaching or inviting enemies who have elemental guns, or brave/faith modifying.

So like...what are we looking at if Mediator is banned instead of Archer?  Archer SCC with extras?  Where does the Archer SCC struggle anyway?  Not Balk, got shields and hats for that.  Maybe longer fights like Adramelk and Altima?  Yeah, getting even one support unit like a Bard/Samurai who can set up a speed differential and heal and restore Alma's MP probably lets a mostly Archer SCC have an easy time with those.

So...yeah, don't think we're quite at the level where Mediator shenanigans would be so strongly encouraged.

14. Archer

15...

Samurai, Dancer, Thief, Mediator, Bard.

yeah, ok, well, ok, this does now look like some grind is reasonable.  I think we're at the point where we do need to talk about Mediator shenanigans with invite.  Probably breaks the game a little faster than the other grind options.  Don't think we're in zero grind zero reset teritory, so reset to get a pig in chapter 2, chantages chapter 3.  Or even just something like a mediator SCC and just grab some elemental guns.

A lot of the game also just dies to guns (without even grabbing elemental guns).  There might be a no-grind path that just uses guns to deal with everything from Chapter 2 to most of the way through Chapter 4.  Grabs Equip Gun to get a few Sing/Dance moves to help with longer fights like Altima.  But obviously that's also very Mediator heavy.

Samurai's a thought, but I'm not convinced that's less grind.  Expensive to unlock.  Slow to get abilities after unlocking cause they cost so much JP.  And you do need that grind (like...Samurai SCC except a chapter or two further behind on JP, and less spillover cause you're probably not doing five samurais unless you really grind, That sounds...rough).  And if you do grind you get...Samurai SCC with move+2 (no real great multiclass, no better use for Two Hands than Katanas).

15. Mediator

And I think Samurai has to be next.  It's a grind, but I think we're in that teritory now if you want to avoid a lot of resets, and just a lot better rounded than Dancer if you do grind out the JP.  Best damage for assassination missions.  Easier to unlock.  Generally considered the easier SCC, and benefits a lot from Thief's Move+2.

Dancer is better against generics but if you grind out Blade Grasp and up to date draw outs, Samurai is also pretty good against generics.

Also literally the only class left that can wear robes, if you want like...Chameleon Robes for wiegraf, or white robes for some element heavy fights.

16. Samurai

Dancer's weird in this format.  Big fan of the class personally, but rarely did fights with bunches of generics late in the playthrough look as if they would be the problem fight.  Anyway, obviously they're next.

17. Dancer

I remember this dilemma, not really knowing which of Thief or Bard is supposed to be the harder SCC.  You do need to go through a bunch of dead classes to unlock Bard, though.  I will knee-jerk give it to thief, cause at least they have easy job unlock requirements (and can do things like grind out chantages if they really want to).

18. Thief

19. Bard


Last place is, of course, known.

20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 13, 2023, 04:46:13 AM
So...interesting question: where did I go different from the last time I did this excercise.

Unchanged:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard

---

5th-7th on the old list I made

5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage

New list

5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Squire

There's a shift in perspective here that I think Chapter 1 is certainly the pain point, but I don't think you are necessarily bailed out by having more JP, I think you are bailed out by Chapter 2 gear (and guests).  The very advanced gear on Agrias and Gafgarion (and guest appearances carrying a couple fights).  Guns.  Spears being just utterly cracked in Chapter 2.

In terms of Time Mage and Priest flipping, Time Mage is definitely more JP heavy and benefits more from Gained JP Up.  But also just...like...the MP difference between Haste and Raise being 8 to 10, which is normally pretty irrelevant, is kind-of relevant during the chapter 1 which I expect to be the hard chapter.

---

8th-9th on the old list:

8. Ninja
9. Lancer

8th-9th on the new list:

8. Lancer
9. Ninja

The reason for this change is similar to the reason for the other change.  Just a feeling that the hard parts of such a challenge would be early.  And Ninja needing to suffer through a lot of early thief and archer levels doesn't really address the issue.  Whereas Lancer still needs to suffer through some Thief levels, but addresses the issue at the start of Chapter 2.  And...honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Lancer stayed better than Ninja for a while after Ninja was unlocked (if not it's close).

---

Surprisingly unchanged:

10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer

(I really expected to find that I put Monk over Oracle last time, and was just biased by my recent exposure to Monk, but apparently not).

---

Next set of differences:

Old list:

13. Archer
14. Mediator
15. Knight

New List

13. Knight
14. Archer
15. Mediator

So...once you ban Archer, I do think Mediator probably falls immediately after (just deprive the playthrough of range physicals).  Which means I think the interesting choice here is 13th place--Knight vs Archer.

The argument in the old list was that Archers would get used quite a bit with only the bottom 8 classes available, and that's probably true, Archers would get used quite a bit.

The argument on the new list is that Knight plugs a lot of holes.  Banning Knight makes Chapter 1 suffering.  Equip Sword is probably at least part of the plan for some assassination fights like Velius and Roof of Riovanes...and honestly probably Equip Sword Thief over Equip Sword Archer (4 move, 4 jump often higher speed, shields don't matter as much in those fights).  Knight still offered some MA payoff for Samurai (Knight with Wizard Robe Rune Blade and Ageis shield).  Knight still offered Knight Swords--Excalibur.  Move+2 makes the woes of melee assassination builds a lot more manageable too.

I also vaguely remembered a somewhat tongue in cheek comment DarkHolyElf made a while back doing a playthrough with the bottom 8 classes or so--that there was a case for banning Knight before even Geomancer as Chapter 1 was the roughest part of the playthrough.

And there is a case that Dancer is kind-of playing spoiler here.  Archer is preferable against say, enemy knights and Archers.  Concentrate good, kiting good.  Speed matching to charge on enemies good.  But these kinds of fights can also often be trivialized by one dancer with Nameless Dance.

---

And then the bottom five were unchanged

16. Samurai
17. Dancer
(17. bonus Red Chocobos (from Boco) which I didn't rate this time)
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 13, 2023, 07:45:10 AM
So okay, here's an interesting question.

Should Knights be higher?

I just moved them from 15th to 13th

I've been referencing Dark Holy Elf's old playthrough, but I should actually go back and read and quote the notes because they are in this topic, and I am not sure if I've read them since 2011.

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Knight is hardcore dominant early. Double the damage of Archer. Gap shrinks a little after you get Iron Swords + Longbows (although... the latter comes first) but Knight's durability is also quite useful. I was using Monk a lot because I wanted to unlock Geomancer... similar damage to Knight but way less HP. Generally I felt, especially for maps like Sand Rat Cellar, that I just couldn't afford to lose damage/HP.

My first goal was to get to Geomancer (shocking, I know); the one battle I had it for it made much easier. Really can't stress enough how useful having both ranged (ITE) chipping and an actual good damage option is (Charge makes it even better). Knight will probably still win chapter 1 in my eyes because you get it right away whereas Geo is actually a pain to unlock in the world without Gained JP Up, but there's no question Geomancer is better once you have it. Archer quietly chips in Charge+1 or +2, but is not a happy place to be for the most part if you're male (damage compared to knight is... 15 vs. 30 after Igros, 20 vs. 36 after Sand Rats; unacceptable) but this should close a bit in the last two maps due to Silver Bows plus them possibly starting to hit that PA point.

Possible mistake: I should perhaps have made my girls archers as soon as Longbows showed up (20 damage instead of 24-28 isn't so bad when you have range) but since they were already partly done Monk I figured I'd tough it out because Monk isn't getting any more pleasant to be in any time soon, whereas Archer is getting more appealing with better bows (and the Headgear in Chapter 2). However, it's possible them being in Archer could have saved me a reset.

The other five classes don't exist in Chapter 1 as far as I'm concerned. There's a slim argument to be in Thief if you're female but it's clearly the worst place to be; I'd probably rather put time in there when the game gets a bit easier due to options showing up.


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Compared to chapter 1, chapter 2 just basically got curbstomped. I only had two resets and both were extremely avoidable/the result of stupid mistakes on my part (although I won't claim my Execution Site team could have won 100% of the time, needed some luck with either getting through shields OR landing status with elemental... just not much. Also, luck would have been greatly reduced if I wasn't trying to keep moving forward with JP and using, e.g. a Lancer and an Archer).

Some notes:
-I've thus far been ignoring propositions, although Goug/Warjilis does exist for 'em. This is possibly a bit unfair, I dunno.
-I finished chapter 2 with dancer not yet unlocked. The girls have been basically doing nothing but working on Dancer prereqs, though of course they sit out about 1 in every 4 battles on average and of course sometimes I have to sacrifice their choice of class for the "must win this fight now" attitude (e.g. extra time in knight).
-Chapter 2 was, somewhat predictably, the Geomancer hype show. It's not a significant exaggeration to say that the optimum way to play this chapter is as a Geomancer SCC with Charge+1/2. Much of this is Elemental being very solid in this chapter (as you've hyped) but a good deal of it is also Attack Up and how good Geo is as a carrier right now (everything else does less with Elemental and deals less damage at melee, and... generally has less durability, and less move).
-Yeah the portion of the game before you get Move+2 practically is more than 25%. I'm just starting to pick it up now. No, it is NOT worth beelining too because you want to get Elemental first (5 range is good times) and a good support skill is also pretty important. I think we're both too used to assuming a metagame where Gained JP Up exists; everything is harder to unlock/get now.
-On the melee/range thing: I do use Elemental more than physicals, but on the other hand, the physicals do play a crucial role sometimes. There's little doubt that a Geomancer with elemental far outperforms an archer or gunner, for instance (and the archers also set and get reasonable use out of Elemental, it must be noted)
-But even when it's not doing damage, Elemental deserves some note for "makes any class more tolerable to just plain get JP in". Most of chapter 2 is easy so you can afford people in sub-optimal classes; the problem is that thief will be locked to melee or the "slows your JP gain rate by 40-50%" Steal Heart (and just getting that is a multi-battle delay to Move+2). However, it's not SO easy you can afford to waste many turns attacking each other, so Elemental gives you something that is always useful to do (even with loltastic MA, it's still 25% stop, sometimes GT). Hell Ivy is the only terrain I picked up until I started getting superfluous Geomancer JP, incidentally (then I started getting Kamaitachi or Carve Model on some people).
-Attack Up is winning out over Concentrate in a pretty big way. Part of this is that, with a few exceptions, enemy evade is fairly low, of course. But the bigger part is just accessability. Yes, yes, they both cost 400 JP... but Geomancer is just so much more pleasant to actually be in, and Charge creeps in as competition for that Archer JP (this second point of course does not discredit archer).

Only two battles had resets on them:
Golgorand: I had one because I forgot how to avoid the knights and got blitzed pretty fast by them. Second try I mostly just kited them.
Lionel Gate: Had a bit of a brain fart and forget that Gafgarion's Night Sword would, uh, heal him. Second try I just stuck Ramza in Geomancer so he'd reach the gate turn 2 and it wouldn't even matter. I'd still have won the first try if I hadn't missed something like half a dozen attempts to stop Gaf, or if my party had been five Geos instead of uh Archer/Archer/Thief/Lancer/Lancer (why yes, Rubber Shoes made me disrespect the fight). And really, that's sort of the story of chapter 2; its challenge (even the execution site's) is negated if you play it as a Geomancer SCC plus a little help, the only reason to really consider other classes is for later-in-the-game preparation.

Chapter 1:
1. Knight (PA, HP, swords)
2. Geomancer (Knight remix plus Elemental is a winning trade, but a bit too late for the top spot)
3. Archer (Charge. Bows are kinda okay after the halfway point, outright good for Zeakden)
4. Thief (... at least it exists)
5-8. Classes which are either impossible to unlock without grinding or massively suboptimal to unlock due to dead class traversing plus chapter 1 being hard.

Chapter 2:
1. Geomancer (Elemental, Attack Up, clearly the best carrier overall due to HP/PA/MA/move/equips)
2. Archer (Charge, possibly Concentrate. Bows are kinda serviceable)
3. Mediator (while I didn't personally unlock them until the end, you could, and Romanda Guns are nice, though pretty reliant on at least one ability from the above two since 36 is outperformed by Elemental)
4. Thief (provides Move+2. A bit of a JP sink and an awful carrier, though)
5. Knight (might look better if you banned Geomancer, but as is, a grossly inferior option. Entire skillset has been devoid of value so far, and they're no longer a good carrier)
6. Dancer (two chapters of inferior stats and don't really exist in Chapter 2 unless you grind)
7-8. Classes which are completely unreasonable to access in the current metagame at this point.

Chapter 1 finished at Level 5-6, Chapter 2 at 11-12, for the record. Current build plans involve Ramza picking up Charge but also having Invite (possibly switching over to gunner duty later, or alternating between that/Geo as needed), the male Geos focusing on Geomancer/Charge/Move+2 beatdowns, and the girls very close to getting Dancer (once they have that and the three key dances, they'll probably work on Mediator too).


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No Mimic Daravon yet. Steal Heart... I learned with one person and... never used. That hit rate!

Elemental sees uses on Archer because (a) sometimes the MT is worth it, (b) sometimes more range, (c) sometimes ITE is worth it when you know the rest of your damage kills anyway. Overall it isn't exactly pinning ears back, no, but it's still a decent addition to the toolbox.

Knight JP I'm really not sure about. I'm sorta sitting on it in hopes that one of the Equip X abilities will be useful, or maybe I'll feel a certain Battle Skill could turn a fight down the line. I could buy Weapon Guard (it's not terribly crowded out yet because archer/geo want to spend JP on other things), and it's possible that at the end of the day, having +5% evade on most of my units may end up a better payoff than the Equip abilities, but for now I'm not ready to take that chance.

Zigolis Swamp random enemy was a Flotiball. I didn't have Mediator unlocked at that point anyway, though. (One reasonably could, certainly, if the invite lottery or resetting there was a high priority.)

*checks Drain Touch* 60+MA. Revenant MA is roughly 4.81+0.69*Level, so... 78.6% to 92.4% hit rate at levels 20-40, say (this can swing a bit with random MA of course)? Good zodiac can make that really shine I guess, for some boss-killing. You'll probably want to do a little breeding regardless, but it is quite an interesting boss-kill tactic if needed. I kinda doubt we're at the point where it feels worth it, though... and sadly, we may not hit it until Mediator is banned. A shame.


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Chapter 3 finished. Stompstompstomp I thought this was supposed to be a challenge. Chapter finished at Level 20-21 (though the last two fight were of course too short to really change this... notably, I generally hit 18 around Grog Hill).

One reset to report, against ZALMO. Same reason as Lionel Gate, I had an absolutely horrid team due to trying to milk the battle for skills (Archers/Thief/Lancers). The Archers were supposed to be the kinda competent units but I totally forgot Zalmo has ARROW GUARD, lolspoiled. But yeah with an even slightly competent party (Geomancers, people with Mithril Guns, Dancers...) this would go down hard.

I tried to invite the Goland chemists, but due to bad luck I wasn't able to (first one had to die because he was a threat to Olan, the second was just an unfortunate critical hit killing him). This was kinda fluky, normally you'd be able to easily snag at least one gun here. I ended up making the Goug trip to buy 'em so that I wouldn't be disadvantaged by this. I reset a little to avoid some (but not all) fights. This was also the point I finally got Dancer (one of the girls got there from the Zalmo fight, the other right after). I only bought one because they cost a lot.

Izlude was minorly worrying because my archers missed four times in a row to start the battle (yes, yes, Concentrate hype!) and my gunner died fast but eventually I landed the hits I needed, combined with Dance, to not completely die.

In both the big Riovanes fights I made some pretty big errors but not enough, I just had too much firepower. I lured Velius to the wrong place so one of my Geos couldn't hit him, but when the other two did just shy of 700 damage between them (ps one of them was a girl) and Ramza does well over 200 before Velius' first turn it hardly matters. Did the fight with gunner Ramza, one other Mediator, and three Geos for the record.

Roof, I just didn't realise that the assassins could only be hit by one melee attack from each side before they moved. Didn't matter due to my two speed 9'ers and two naked PCs.

All other fights generally scanned as complete jokes, beyond Olan who can be frustratingly difficult to save (bows/guns both have serious problems reaching the top of the roof, didn't buy Blizzard) if he decides to be stupid. Yardow could have been okay except that by late Chapter 3 I was mostly done with my class monkeying and was actually in generally good setups (one archer was the main weak point and even it's okay there).

I could afford two Bracers, for the record. That, three Platinum Swords, five Power Sleeves, four Twist Headbands, two Sprint Shoes, a Chameleon Robe, and the aforementioned Mithril Gun were the major purchases of the chapter, though I also snagged a few extra swords/bows/Judo Outfits/Flame Shields. No propositions yet, still. At this point I'm going to stick to this; we can quibble with its effects later.

I started picking up Move+2 late chapter 2; by mid Orbonne, everyone except gunner Ramza had it. Reaction abilities are only finally starting to trickle in, mainly in the form of Counter Flood just for ease of getting; everything else either has a negligible effect or doesn't feel worth the time spent in an inferior class. My Dancers may end up with Arrow Guard since Archer/Geo are comparably good carriers for them; we'll see. Towards the end of the chapter I could finally start to pick up Concentrate, although it remains to be seen if it really justifies the time spent in an inferior class.

I don't really have anything good to say about Talk Skill. Faith monkeying has some uses I guess, we'll see if I ever care about mages enough for this to score points (for now, I'm not doing it), Mimic Daravon I basically only use when there's an obstacle in my way because it misses so often and I have crazy damage to lay into everything between AU/Charge/Swords and all that PA-boosting/Guns. Maybe it'd find a little more use without Dancer. Certainly I would if we got rid of our best methods of damage, but... not sure this will happen until both Geo and Archer are banned. As is, it gets the Steal Heart treatment (though I did finally use Steal Heart with my useless Thief in the Zalmo fight! Better idea: don't use Thief, and don't buy abilities that make you spend more time in Thief.)

Oh, and a serious "lol" at brave/faith raising is needed at this point. Bad internal compatibility is pretty clearly the way to go even if you decide to optimise zodiac at all (I don't anticipate ice healing to be very useful, but there have certainly been times when I wanted to take less from destatusing myself) and it makes the already terrible hit rates of Praise/Preach even worse. Not to mention there's so little reason to raise either (reactions are just... not a priority or impressive). If I'm wrong about how chapter 4 plays out I'll rescind these comments, but at this point I don't expect I will be.

Chapter 1 still by far the hardest part of the game! BAN KNIGHT? (Well, if there's any debate about Knight vs. Bard later on...)

Opinion of classes in chapter 3...

1. Geomancer (high-end carrier for basically everything, Attack Up still great even with competition in some fights, Elemental's niche compromised now but still the best skillset for a melee male)
2. Dancer (yeah, the mook smash is good, although chapter 3 is kinda boss-heavy which holds them in check a bit)
3. Archer (Charge is a preferred skillset unless you have Dance. Concentrate/Arrow Guard get it some very minor points)
4. Mediator (who cares about Talk Skill with this offence? Main use of the skillset is snagging a few guns. Of course, guns themselves are very solid, but very reliant on Geomancer/Archer and need an extra hoop or two to get, and gunners either have lower move/durability/bad primary OR give up the AU possibility)
*drop*
5. Thief (Move+2 and a big pile of garbage)
6. Knight (Light equips take off in this chapter, Battle Skill still sucks)
7. Bard (hahaha I guess you could open it by now but WHY)
8. Mime (is Mime)

The main remaining question I have for how to play chapter 4 is... do I even look at Bard? Maybe with Ramza? I don't see much reason for my males to bother with that side of the tree. If Thief were banned, the effort spent would easily be worth it, but as is... while I would like +1 move for my melee powerhouses, I probably can't justify it.

Really can't imagine anything shaking Geomancer's hold on #1 at this point, though. It has very clearly won to this point and the only way its competition can pass it is if chapter 4 is much harder than I expect (which might justify things like monster taming, elemental guns, or faith modification).
Modify message

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And chapter 4 beaten!

Jokerun - Is the jokerun. Snagged a Uribo. Ended up breeding a Porky by Limberry, which I imagine is very lucky? Didn't bother with Chantage though.

Balk 1 - So I decided to do this with five Ice Shields. Then I realised "hey I have ice brands, time to remove Counter Flood from everyone". So I do so. Unfortunately, what I don't notice is that, in Ramza's case, instead of removing Counter Flood, I removed Equip Shield. So the entire battle falls to pieces. Shockingly I still win pretty easily, offence!

South Wall - Not sure this was the right choice. Being blitzed is a little scary here. I pull it out though it would have gone better if everyone had Arrow Guard certainly (just... ugh to getting 450 -more- Archer JP, and there aren't many battles late enough that it feels significantly useful).

Sluice - Site of the one and only use of ice healing in this playthrough as I use it to ensure my Geo on the left survives a spell before one-shotting Shale/the head wizard back. I could have set up for this better like with White Robes/Reflect Rings on the left side probably but oh well.

Everything up to Elmdor - lol

Elmdor - I get one shot through Blade Grasp which really turns the tide. Otherwise I do badly at my abusing of this battle (fail to bait a Blood Suck, which results in only one Ultima to be redirected) but yeah, a little luck sees me through. Coulda been a reset.

Zalera - Super horrid luck on this one, Nightmare keeps causing sleep. I -should- have just Kamaitachi'd it away right away probably, since my team was set up for the fight excellently otherwise and I could afford the hit. As is I didn't do it until a desperation move late in the fight and ended up winning this on the very last clocktick.

Adramelk (1 reset) - I misjudge my offence against Dyce here (a fair bit of my team is bad zodiac with him, hadn't noticed) so my timed blitz of him falls short and he finishes someone off. I come a few clockticks short of outracing the crystallisation. Without this error I don't lose, second try was pretty easy.

Everything else until Altima - lol. I get a Tiamat from Balk (Flame Shield/Rubber Shoes/Thief Hat makes the fight easy). End up not using it, but could have; it would have torn Altima apart with the 999 damage off 550 HP and all. Rofel gets his weapon snapped, only other notable thing. I'd have won anyway but it was necessary for a one-rounding, I think?

Altima (1 reset) - I lose once because I try to keep Alma alive. This ends up killing Ramza. Second try I don't do anything so stupid. Sweep demons, break her speed, murder.

Thoughts on various things in chapter 4...

Knight - Excalibur is interesting. An excalibur knight is faster and more durable, but less mobile and generally less damaging (especially if he keeps Elemental over Charge) than Geo. That alone is kind of a push, but a few small things push the knight into the "worth using" category; the fact that he saves you a bunch of money (free Excalibur/crystal gear), the versatility of trading durability for power without being fragile, and Battle Skill being (gasp) actually useful against Zalera, Rofel, and Altima. Weapon Guard is also actually worthwhile for the Excalibur user. It's... still probably the least valuable of the six "real" classes in chapter 4, though.

Archer - Concentrate loses pretty decisively to Attack Up overall (analysis forthcoming) but it's still nice to have, Arrow Guard is pretty cool if you can stomach its cost, and a few charges help (nobody had more than 3 for me) and round out a good skillset for most. Not much else changed here; I kinda regretted not having bows against Rofel and Altima a bit maybe? But not much.

Thief - They have Move+2. Otherwise you run screaming. Still, it was nice to have +2 move without trekking over to Bard, so while it certainly isn't in the running for most overcentralising class, it does have a nice grip on one of the five slots (carrier, secondary, R, S, M).

Mediator - Guns definitely decline in value as the chapter goes on (nice for battle skill, pity my battle skiller didn't have Mediator unlocked! But that's only ~3 battles as mentioned). Tiamat is a pretty good "I win" trick against Altima, though. Persuade's a much weaker one, though it's there. (By the way, Revenants? Not so much, 160 HP just dies there, and no Angel Ring.) They're mostly about a host of minor tricks; my general feeling that they could just as easily be ignored at no major cost stands; puts you in a bit of danger against Wiegraf though.

Geomancer - They could honestly just coast on Attack Up being brutally important, but their 6 move + high power is pretty much the best way to just cut through most battles in C4 anyway (knight does end up providing competition, yes, but it's only competition, and only for one slot). Everyone except Ramza hit L8 in this, nobody hit it in any other job, as a note.

Dancer - Dance remains pretty cool, declining only slightly from chapter 3. Bad when you go into blitz mode, though, and of course the worst thing about it remains forcing females. Still, it's probably optimum to have one or two. The skillset also lets them gain JP anywhere really easily, always a plus, although all the time spent unlocking it instead of other things makes this less of one.

Bard - I can't say I really regret not unlocking it. As I keep coming back to, it would look much better if Thief were banned, and its main role is to stop Thief from overcentralising the movement slot utterly (i.e. I'm pretty sure if I carried these analyses to the end that thief would end up #18, since in the final four Kn/Th/Ba/Mi showdown, knight gets to rest on its laurels as workhorse while cheerfully settling for whichever of Move+2 and Move+3 ends up as unbanned)

Mime - AHAHAHAHA. Man I'm pretty sure I didn't get the 6300 JP needed for this the entire game!


On Attack Up vs. Concentrate:

Going through chapter 4 on my attack geos (so ignoring gunners and dancers), I tended to use either AU, Concentrate, or a mix. Generally speaking, looking back, you want Concentrate for people with shields or generics who are high-enough levelled to use mantles reliably, and AU for everyone else (as well as evasive-types who can be baited into charging). When a boss is present, the strategy which defeats the boss is of course optimum (you -may- take out randoms more optimally with something else, but the gap is usually negligible by comparison if you even bother, and plus you may be neutralising them with Dance anyway). Here's what this ends up looking like:

Doguola Pass: Mix
Meliadoul: Concentrate
Finath: AU
Zalmo: Mix
Balk 1: AU
Walls: ... mm, I'm still unsure which wall you should take, -and- what you should go for here... probably north and a mix?
Sluice: Mix
Germinas/Poeskas/Limberry Gate: AU
Elmdor: Unsure. Optimally you don't care.
Zalera/Adramelk: AU
Outside Murond: Mix
SK Trio: Doesn't matter (Kletian dies either way)
Zalbag/UBS4: Concentrate [EDIT: missed Zalbag]
Rofel: AU
Kletian: Dies either way (though if you got Elemental haxed or something, AU would win?)
Balk, Hash, Altima: AU (Balk has a mantle, yes, but he's not the threat; controlling the monsters is).

Ignoring Elmdor and Kletian, and calling the "mixes" half a point each, the score is 13.5 versus 5.5, before guns are in the mix. It's also worth noting that AU acquits itself much better in a hypthetical "ban archer" scenario since it pretty much always does -something-, while Concentrate just sits there useless (or near-useless) in any fight against charging enemies, monsters, pre-L40 archers, or others who lack evade.

Think that's it for now! Playthrough was pretty fun, final level going into the last battle was 34-35 or so. (Well one dancer reached 39 in the Altima fight, but... dance against L66 target.) Definitely not overall hard with the possible exception of chapter 1; most of my resets could be avoided.

So...some of what I was remembering was a somewhat tongue in cheek one-liner

Quote
Chapter 1 still by far the hardest part of the game! BAN KNIGHT? (Well, if there's any debate about Knight vs. Bard later on...)

But by and large this whole post is reaffirming that Geomancer above Knight is just correct.  Elfboy hyping Geomancer as better than Knight including in Chapter 1 once they are unlocked (despite knights having a gear advantage) just because Elemental and 4 move is nice to have.  Elfboy hyping Elemental as the best secondary even on unexpected classes like archers for AoE, ITE, status potential.

I think there is some world where if Geomancer is higher, maybe Knight gets banned right after geomancer as "lesser geomancer".

Like...if Geomancer was rank 11, and rank 12 was a decision between Knight and Monk, there is a case that banning Knight kneecaps you in Chapter 1, and also takes away the Equip Armor option for Monks in Chapter 2, making Monks pretty undesirable in Chapter 2 too.  Knights do play a bit of a "lesser Lancer" role early in Chapter 2, where like...if you want to use Agrias and Gafgarion's armour, Knight is the way to do it.

---

Well, let's pursue this maybe.

Could Geos be picked over Oracles at the #10 spot?  I think no.  Geos kill bosses.  Life Drain kills bosses better.

Could Geos be picked over Monks at the #11 spot?

Reading over Dark Holy Elf's writeup, I am fairly convinced that a typical Geo will outperform a Monk in both chapters 1 and 2.  In chapter 1 because Monks will have trash for skills anyway and one elemental is probably a fair comparison for like Wave Fist.  In Chapter 2 cause Wizard Robes make Elemental pretty monstrous, and monks are hurting for gear in this chapter, and still hurting for JP. Geos are probably a little worse in Chapters 3/4 generally but will also deal more melee damage for must kill blitz fights like Velius.  I was also giving Monk a lot of credit for HP Restore when I rated them over Geos, but yeah, Counter Flood, it's good, worth thinking about too.

OK, sure, I'm willing to try out Geo over Monk.

11. Geomancer

Hm, well, ok, so for #12, am I really seriously considering this?  Knight above Monk?

I do think it's gotta be one of Knight or Monk.  It's not like...Archer or Mediator.  Knight in Chapter 1 until Equip Armor, and then camp in Monk forever other than maybe grabbing Move+2 is probably just like...never a too weak character at any point.

Monk obviously provides more in the long term.  Knight can't even make a claim to damage--Equip Sword and Martial Arts will be about the same.  And obviously monk has a good skillset, good reaction.  Monk doesn't really need anything like Equip Shield for Balk, can just swap to Archer.  In a Monk vs Knight comparison, Knight like...ceases to have any good arguments in Chapter 3.

The argument for Knight is a stronger Chapter 1, maybe you might do something with Agrias/Gaffy's armour in Chapter 2, but...nothing sounds all that appealing (if you're just in Knight, you're not gaining relevant long-term JP.  If you got Equip Armor on a non-Monk, that just seems like a waste, you will 100% be dumping it later).

Meanwhile, while Monk has a sketchy chapter 2 due to lack of PA boosting gear and a lack of hats, it's also not a nothing chapter for them--they will have some skillset at this point.  Knight won't contribute much of anything on that front.

I do think Monk cleanly has a better Chapter 3/4, which is more than half the game.  And Monk even without Knight should have a doable Chapter 1.  Maybe tied Chapter 2.

So ok, Knight still wouldn't move, it would just be

11. Geomancer

12. Monk


---

Other thing I'm thinking about reading through Dark Holy Elf's old notes and how a lot of the challenge is early and how JP rolls in very slow, is...do I maybe still have Ninja too high?

Ninja has value for assassination missions, but Oracle has...arguably more value for less investment, at least against zodiacs.  And Defense Up is still very cool for your non-zodiac fights.  Yeah, I think I'm sold on Oracle over Ninja.

9. Oracle

With a different 9th ban, we should re-examine ban #10.

Is there a world where Ninja is below Geomancer as well?  Ehh.  Geos are solid in chapter 1, maybe even the best class for a few fights according to Dark Holy Elf, but not really required to get through chapter 1.  Geos maybe carry Chapter 2.  Especially with Oracle and Lancer gone, decent case Geos are the best thing to pull a weak party through Chapter 2.  And then Chapter 3 you should have Ninja unlocked, at least on some characters, and would almost always rather be a Ninja than a Geo.  Unless you specifically want a robe.  (Wanting a Shield probably not enough to get much of an edge.  Unarmed Equip Shield Ninja can still punch twice thanks to a funny glitch).

Is there a world where both Ninja and Geo occupy enough of the same space (melee character with a ranged poke) that banning neither one does enough and Monk starts looking better?  Hmm....  Weirdly almost feel like Geo is the one that stands out (for having a good Chapter 2).  Both Monk and Ninja suffering in Chapter 2 and getting payoff in Chapter 3.

I think despite bringing less in Chapter 3/4, I kind-of am seeing the argument for Geomancer over Ninja.  Is it such a big deal if your high investment character that will limp through Chapter 2 is a Monk instead of Thief/Archer heading to Ninja?  Eh, not really.  Chapter 3+ should be easy regardless.  Whereas knocking out the last good Chapter 2 class seems like it might matter more for challenge.

(And not like Geo is irrelevant in Chapter 3+.  Attack Up still good.  Shields still good.  Counter Flood is respectable.  High MA class for any prospective Samurai.  Lower impact than Ninja, but not irrelevant).

10. Geomancer

Does Ninja keep moving down?  I think it does, cause like if Chapter 2 is a weak point, and I suspect it probably is with Geo out, Equip Armor Monk sounds like one of the few sensible remaining ways to somewhat mitigate that, while also having an actual excuse to run male knights in Chapter 1 to enable the builds that are weak at that point.  Ninjas obviously bring a lot to Chapter 3+, better assassination missions, but Monks are also delivering plenty to Chapter 3+, like a skillset, reaction abilities, and acceptable damage once power sleeve and bracer show up.  Not Ninja level damage, but acceptable.

Although...if I'm hyping up equip armour monks in Chapter 2, was I wrong to put Geo in the 10th spot above?  Ehh...Equip Armor Monks won't be Geo level in chapter 2 or anything, they'll spend all of Chapter 1 getting 500 JP for Equip Armour, and then in Chapter 2 it's a bit like having a Knight in the party since they don't have much Monk JP yet.  You're probably just punching and wave fisting for most of the chapter.  Having a "pseudo Knight" in Chapter 2 is a lot worse than having an Attack Up Geo with Wizard Robe+Elemental, even with Agrias and Gaffy's gear.  Just...Monk JP actually builds towards relevant stuff, and Knight JP does not.  That's really most of what Equip Armor does here, let you run a Chapter 2 Knight that is not a JP dead-end.

But yes, having a sensible not JP dump build that is basically a Chapter 2 Knight is still going to help out quite a bit, when the other options are like Chapter 2 Archers and Thieves.  Banning Monk here hurts early (in Chapter 2, and also Chapter 1 since you can justify spending more Knight time in the chapter) and also late (losing Punch Art is a notable loss).  Banning Ninja just hurts late.

11. Monk

Does Ninja continue to move down?

Mmm...what even are the classes now?

Ninja, Knight, Archer, Mediator, Thief, Samurai, Dancer, Bard.

Yeah, Knight will have a good Chapter 1, but you can manage with Archers.  None of these will have a great Chapter 2.

And then Ninja contributes a lot to Chapter 3 onwards.

In Chapter 3+ Knight and Archer can both claim to be contributing to damage to kill bosses like Velius through Equip Sword and Charge, but Ninja is contributing way more than either Knight or Archer here.

I think it's got to be Ninja.  They are now the obvious Chapter 3/4 option.  I'm not feeling like Chapter 3/4 are going to be trivial with these other 7 classes.  There are obviously still other builds with lategame payoff like Dancer, Samurai, but none really in the same space as Ninja anymore.

12. Ninja


So...ok, after all that adjustment, mostly moving Ninja down four spots, but also swapping Monk and Geo, list now looks like

1. Calculator
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Squire
8. Lancer
9. Oracle
10. Geomancer
11. Monk
12. Ninja
13. Knight
14. Archer
15. Mediator
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 15, 2023, 08:29:38 AM
If I was to do an LFT ban-a-thon what would it look like?

Obviously this is going to be a lot more fuzzy, cause on paper it's all very balanced.

That said

1. Knight.

It is amazing how many fights you might be losing and then you bring a Knight and they just draw all the fire and you win.

Probably after that the thing to target would be revival (and to some degree healing), just due to the nature of bans--taking away the thing that very few classes can reproduce will hurt more.  Additionally LFT has generally slower and longer fights than FFT because of lots of enemies with defence up and magic defence up and more elemental resistances, and you need to ban relatively few classes to basically shut off revival.

2. Chemist

3. Priest

4. Squire

5. Monk

Banned basically in the order of how good their revival is.  Maybe Squire and Monk could be swapped (Reinforce is Laggy stamped as better revival than Monk revival, but Monk offers enough other stuff like HP Restore and Chakra MP batteries to maybe justify Monk ahead of Squire).

After that probably something like...

6. Wizard

7. Summon

8. Time Mage

Chapter 1 without wizards kinda rough, specifically without their best spell: poison.

Summon is obviously heavily nerfed, but still often stands out as a go-to if you want to carry a bunch of weak teammates through a fight.  Not many other ways to get that level of AoE, can still one-shot in the right circumstance, 100% hitrate, etc.

Hitting Time Mage just does a bunch of little things.  Haste good, so getting rid of it is noticeable.  Short Charge Meteor is a relevant ban with Summon now banned.  And it also just hits Calculator really hard (Haste, Slow, and Don't Move are probably the top 3 mathskills legal in LFT, but also with Priest and Wizard already banned it's now down to just Oracle as calculable magic).  Teleport is also kind of known to be quite strong for its current JP level, we just wanted to encourage people to get it cause it is highly strategic.  MP Switch is also quite good.

9. Lancer?

I kind of was thinking Archer here, cause I see a lot of good charge builds in LFT, ranging from charge harps, to charge guns, to charge books.  But...Lancer is probably still a significantly better version of that kind of thing, even if it's less "spicy".

10. Archer

Legit do think Archers are probably next though.

11. Mime

Lower than I expected, given that I tend to think of them as overtuned in LFT, but a lot of the abilities before this I was thinking "yeah, but that's the thing they would be miming anyway", Charge and haste in particular.

12. Oracle

Just seems like a hit that makes Chapter 1 kinda miserable, enjoy dealing with Knights without the best remaining status user.  Also shuts off what remains of Calculator.  Also removes the option of Life Drain on zodiacs.

13. Mediator

Death Sentence and Mimic Daravon are some of the remaining ways to deal with Knights early on, so taking those away should really torpedo chapter 1.  Also guns and mediator stuff generally.

14. Geomancer

The last high MA job, so banning it now makes Samurai look miserable.  The last source of shields.  Removes attack up, so no attack up gun stuff.  And just a really really high stat job (substantially buffed from vanilla; three 120 multipliers in HP, PA, and MA.  Some Elementals deal more damage now too).

15. Thief

Innate two weapons.  Poaching and stealing, which both feel more relevant in LFT (more things to steal, no more common/rare poach split).  Quick Attack with Harps is also a combo where splitting it up feels relevant.  Not like...Charge level good, cause it is range 1 vertical 1 on a Bard, but still, it's probably time to stop that combo.  Just...hitting Thief takes away a lot of easy damage.

16. Dancer

Nameless Dance good.  One of the few jobs whose combos aren't really in shambles from bans already on the books.

17. Samurai

Draw Out still a skillset, even if there's nowhere to really go with it.  Can still go to Bard, I suppose, they do have innate MAU.

18. Ninja

So obviously this is between Ninja and Bard.  Bard doesn't get harps till part way through Chapter 2.  Also, there's at least one all-undead fight they'd need to deal with when the only harp is bloody strings.  Also...I presume quite a bit less damage--there's no charge to boost up harps.

19. Bard

Not a bad class in LFT, we just hit all of the combo pieces like quick attack and charge rather than banning Bard itself.

20. Calculator

Also not a bad class in LFT obviously.  We just banned all the calculable spells first.  Although, I guess it depends how the ban is defined--if when Time Mage is banned and you learn haste you're still allowed to math skill haste, obviously that moves a bunch of stuff around.  (Calculator maybe 8th, Time Mage maybe a couple of spaces lower).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 16, 2023, 12:02:42 AM
Additional thoughts:

On the ordering of Squire vs Chemist, Squure also has Replenish in LFT, which is mage-friendly healing that can self target.  And it’s more compatible with mage builds (MA formula) and restores more MP at least to one target, and can self-target.  So the case for Monk over LFT squire looks a bit weaker.

There is a question that could be asked about Dragon Spirit, potentially you could self activate that in fights that didn’t activate it for you.  Buuut, it’s a reaction and needs to compete with other reactions.  And like…you can pretty easily get one reraise off of it, but two might be tough.  Tend to reraise at low enough percent that surviving a friendly attack is not trivial.  It’s a CBG ability so there’s non damaging ways to activate it like steal, but these are not necessarily easy to incorporate into a build.  And of course the reaction can still fail to trigger.  And of course, on top of that I’m not at all convinced it’s the best reaction even in a challenge that bans the better revivals.

Wizard…dunno if it’s really correct to be 6th.  Does feel like they very consistenly get used, and black magic set in Chapter 1, with fire/ice/bolt shredding non-knights, and poison being the preferred answer for knights.  Don’t really have a strong sense of the next best solution.

Maybe Samurai and Bard deserve additional consideration as just a source of healing after most of the other sources of healing went away early with the revival.  Both very limited, though.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 31, 2023, 08:56:28 AM
Back to vanilla FFT ban-a-thon thoughts.

1. Calculator
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Squire
8. Lancer
9. Oracle
10. Geomancer
11. Monk
12. Ninja
13. Knight
14. Archer
15. Mediator
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime

OK, revisiting this after just playing a bunch of LFT.

1st-6th are probably fine, not thinking about those too hard.

Is Squire 7th?  Is there a way Lancer could be higher than Gained JP Up and Move+1?  Ehh...no, I think it's still Squire, there are still a lot of good builds at that point, and they're pretty much all JP hungry.

Squire 7th

Is Lancer still 8th?  Ahead of Oracle?  Oracle helps a little more in Chapter 1--you may not have a lot of actual oracles, but I think Yin Yang might actually be the secondary on some characters--just gives range options.  Although eh, you could be unlocking some Geo elementals instead which also gives range options.  This isn't on the same level as Haste or Raise, where the difference between having these and not having these as secondaries is big.  Lancer gets good earlier in chapter 2, and might actually just stay more powerful throughout the game except against zodiac demons where Life Drain is better (Lancer still very good against zodiacs to be clear, baiting spells and jumping is good).  The key SCC weakness of lancers is negated here, cause you get to switch to a class with thief hats and smash fast enemies like balk and hashmallum.

Admitedly you're probably not going like...four lancers, cause you don't want four thieves in chapter 1, and also Gaffy and Agrias only have two good sets of armour to take.  But I don't think you're going four of anything else either.  (Four oracles probably not the play--obviously would be good eventually, but the early chapters look like the hard part.  Four monks will struggle in chapter 2, four geomancers fine in chapter 2 but just seems like it would want a better lategame plan, four ninja builds have an even bigger problem with needing quality Thief time).

I do think two Lancers to take advantage of the gear is pretty reasonable, though.  And JP requirements on lancers are fairly modest, like Level Jump 8 happening in Chapter 2 sounds like it would still happen even without Gained JP Up, and getting out of lancer doesn't need to happen for quite a while.

Geos admittedly are also very good chapter 2 classes once the MA gear shows up, as are oracles.  But those do come a little later in the chapter, and probably still less impressive than a 200 HP unit that jumps for like...108 damage.  Yeah, Lancer probably still okay 8th.

8. Lancer

And with that out of the way, I think it has to be Oracle over Geo.  Yin Yang with stuff like Paralyze competes for some of the same niche as elemental (useful option when you want to stay at range).  Life Drain probably the better boss killer than Attack Up.  Getting spillover JP to the party for Defence Up is legit.

9. Oracle

And yeah, having just seen Monk (admitedly in LFT) from Chapter 1 through the end of Chapter 4, yeah, remaining not that impressed.  So many enemies immune to earth slash.  Slightly hilly terrain still a problem.  Especially with no MP-using classes left (Chakra MP battery was one of the more impressive things a Monk can do).  So...targeting Chapter 2 and late Chapter 1 with Geo still looks good.  Last great Chapter 2 Wizard Robe abuser.

10. Geomancer

Thinking over my logic again, I remember needing to split up the dream team of equip armour Monk, cause that's the one remaining way to really benefit from equipment in chapter 2, and there's no real downside to it with all the other good support abilities banned.  And if you get over the hump of Chapter 2 and early Chapter 3, Monks can cruise once they get Power Sleeve, so the build has a real long-term plan.  Ninjas obviously good once unlocked, but Chapter 2 (and Chapter 1) looking like pain points here.

Is there ever a world where it's Knight here and not Monk?  Eh...no way right?

Well...hold on, hitting Knight hits chapter 1 very hard as well, as Knight is the best remaining class there.  Like...Monk is okay in Chapter 1, but no hats, no shields.  And Monks basically suffer throughout the whole of Chapter 2.  To the point that I'm maybe just abandoning the Monk plan and going to Ninja instead, or mediator for guns.  And Knight actually has relevant RSM for Ninja in the form of Equip Sword.  And...equip shield not bad on a Mediator either.  And actually speed break on mediators might be a real answer to some zodiacs.

So...what does monk actually offer?  It offers some quality of life lategame.  A revival option, eventually, but not early, and a mediocre revival option.  Eventually one dedicated monk will get HP Restore spillover for the whole party.

Um...ok, I need to think about this.  Is Equip Sword actually better on a Ninja than Martial Arts for fights where Concentrate isn't desired?  Tossing in some Ninja numbers...depends on gear.  (Like level 16-22 Ninjas against Velius with a Power Sleeve but no other PA boosting gear have 10 PA.  So 105 damage with martial arts, and 120 damage with Platina Swords).  But that said, toss on a twist headband and the damage is the same (144 for both).

How good is speed breaking?  Like...maybe good on specifically Altima and no other fight cause damage is still fairly high.  Nice for gun users like mediators against zodiacs if you don't get elemental guns, I guess, as they aren't hitting that hard, but speed breaking with ninjas sounds dubious.

So I mean, ok, lategame contributions of Knight still sketchy compared to the competition.  Mediators probably like them most (equip shield, speed break).

That said, still very much considering this, as like...you probably want knights in chapter 1 to support the people going through bad classes like Thief, and it's not wasted JP either, they have abilities that...maybe aren't that special, but can be learned and improve characters, and by the time the monk is giving HP restore from spillover and learning Revive you are probably stomping things anyway, like you could have Concentrate Move+2 Ninjas by that point I'm pretty sure.

Yeah, sure, kneecap people in Chapter 1 where they're weakest.

Knight

So...ok, obviously Ninja is still on the table for next.  Monk is also still on the table for next for many of the same reasons as before (last remaining revival, getting the party HP restore from spillover).  But also, Monk is the one remaining early class with damage (the other early classes left for Chapter 1 are Dagger Thieves, Dagger Mediators, and Archers).

Huh.  Is there a world where it's correct to hit Archer here and not Monk or Ninja?

How much damage does Archer deal with a long bow in chapter 1?  Sounds like 20, starting after Sand Rat Cellar.  Raising to 25 with silver bows at Lenalia Plateau.  Wave Fist is 36, of course, but...300 JP in Chapter 1 in a class you don't unlock for a few fights is not nothing, like...you'll get that towards the end of the chapter.  And less range on a class with less HP, of course.  What about handling Sand Rat Cellar before longbows?  The bow gun will deal 15, but I think importantly, it has 4 range so 3 move enemy knights will actually walk into it, letting you shoot and walk backwards.  Even if you had Wave Fist by this fight (which you probably wouldn't) the 3 range wouldn't let you do that.

So...ok, Archers definitely have a case for carrying the party more than Monk in chapter 1.  Monk certainly offers things too (that 36 damage!) but more range earlier is nice.

And Archer is actually offering impactful things to several builds.  Gun using mediators care about charge.  Ninjas care about Concentrate.  Monks also care about Concentrate.

Lacking Monk will hurt a bit later, due to no Revive and no HP restore, but I think you're in pretty good shape once you have Ninjas with Move+2 and concentrate, and Mediators with Charge.  And abandon and sunken state are fine HP restore replacements so like...mostly not having revival, but the blitz power of that Ninja build is probably plenty.

Knocking out Ninja is also reasonable here, as there's not a huge power level difference between Chapter 1 Monk and Chapter 1 Archer, but there is a large power level difference between Ninja and everything else when you get Ninja.

So...feeling like Archer vs Ninja?

Losing Archer obviously hurts in Chapters 1 and 2.  Losing concentrate mostly makes you suffer against non-bosses, but ehh...those can get bulldozed by stuff like dance, and Sunken State exists as ghetto concentrate.

Archers have arrow guard and I respect it, but there are so many other good reactions (including the previously mentioned HP Restore).

Yeah, feels like this is actually Ninja.

12. Ninja

So...ok, let's just list out what is left

Monk, Dancer, Bard, Archer, Mediator, Samurai, Thief, Mime

I am certainly thinking about charge guns at this point.  And maybe Monk finally, they still have revival, and now some of the best blitz damage.

Equip Gun Archer with punch art for revive and stigma magic sounds reasonable.  Just building a monk also sounds reasonable, maybe ending up in Archer with Martial Arts secondary, or in Monk with Concentrate.  Arrow Guard and HP Restore both good reactions.

I think it's going to for sure be one of Monk or Archer.  Just the two classes that aren't pathetic in chapter 1, while playing different roles.  (Mediator is pathetic in Chapter 1).

So like...I intuitively feel like this really ought to be Monk.  They're just generically seen as a good class, and Archers are generically seen as a bad class.

The thing that's making me hesitate on just slamming Monk is that like...I'm kind of feeling like Archers probably bring a bit more to Chapter 1, a bit better at handling Sand Rat Cellar, and Monks are really suffering from gear woes in Chapter 2.  But surely the long term must be better for Monk?  And like...yeah I think it is, but Mediator SCC kinda stomps most of the game pretty good once it gets guns, and add charge and shields and arrow guard, and you can slap equip gun on people while they unlock Bard and Dancer and Samurai for whatever you want out of those classes, and man, that really doesn't sound all that bad.  Archer just seems like it flows better into the remaining classes.

I guess Archer is also now the one remaining way to get a shield.  Which matters for like Balk fights, and not too much else.  White robes are also decent for those fights (but those are now only available on Mediator and Samurai, and if you ban Archer, then Mediator drops in value a notable amount).

Let's see...I think Archers are better in Chapter 1 (though not by a lot, I just value the 4-5 range), worse for Zaland/Barius Hill in Chapter 2 (monks only need to get to level 5 for 7 PA, and Power Wrist shows up after Zirekile Falls, bringing that up to 8 PA for 60 damage wave fist, whereas Archers are still looking at 5 WP here, so like 30 damage--longer range and higher HP of course), worse for the next four fights that matter in Chapter 2 cause Romanda Guns are storebought. Chapter 3 I think Archers are ahead until Bracer (even with power sleeve, monk's hitting like 10 PA, so like 90 damage wave fist.  Yeah, give me Mythril Gun over that--64 damage base, and charge+3 brings that to like 88.  With 8 range instead of 3 and no chance to miss).

And then bracers surely put Monks ahead for the last four fights of chapter 3, and then earth clothes as well in chapter 4 for earth healing, and also somewhere around part way through Chapter 3 Monks start having revival for emergencies.

But in terms of how much of the game each class is better, this is a surprisingly even split.

The numbers gap is going to be quite wide in Chapter 4 and late Chapter 3, so that's one argument to break the tie towards Monk.  But Archer routes will still have the range edge and the option of shields and the ignore evade edge (against earth immune enemies only, since earth slash is ITE, but there's lots of earth immune enemies), and the edge in terms of portability (Equip Gun+Charge unlocking bard/dancer/samurai much more comfortably than martial arts+punch art).

I...feel like I'm leaning Archer here?

13. Archer

Monk is definitely going to be next.  Only remaining early accessible class that isn't reduced to daggers in Chapter 1, unlike mediator and thief.  Actually has a good reaction in HP Restore--Arrow Guard was also good, but Archer gone now.  Once one of Archer/Monk is banned, the other almost certainly goes.

14. Monk

And at this point 15-20 will probably all be the same, so list with these changes now looks like...

1. Calculator
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Squire
8. Lancer
9. Oracle
10. Geomancer
11. Knight
12. Ninja
13. Archer
14. Monk
15. Mediator
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on August 31, 2023, 09:04:18 PM
Still sort of thinking about FFT weapons and what not.

God damn Mythril guns are good for when you get them relative to things like bows.  They're 8 WP.  The best storebought longbow period is also 8 WP.  The best sword at the time when Mythril Guns first come out is 9 WP.  The best book at the time is 8 WP.

That's actually so much WP for the time, at least with all the good weapons banned.  And mix that in with all the other nice things about guns.  They can be used with shields.  They don't miss.  They are 8 range.

Like I was searching around for a reason for archers who had access to equip gun to ever use their bows over the guns and I don't think they ever do after guns are available.  Maybe Gastrifitis, but IDK.  It's 10 WP, but a pretty big range loss.  Maybe windslash bow against Velius cause it can be strengthened and you just want to hit him while he's charging.

I've also been thinking, in terms of the 8 classes left at the end, whether Two Hands from Samurai has any value, maybe for killing zodiac demons.  And like...the problem is that all the good weapons it could have doubled happen to be banned.  It can only be used on katanas used from the samurai class itself.  Which like...baseline without the help of accessories towards the end of chapter 3 are looking like 60 damage.  Two hands doubles that to 120 (I think, not sure how brave interacts with two hands).  With a bracer 84, double to 168.

Is this good?  Well...not with Monk still in the room, since Power Sleeve Bracer from them at about the same level gets them to 13 PA and 171 damage.

Does this work well with charge due to high WP on Katanas?  Not particularly because the formula for charge+K is [((PA + K) * Br) / 100] * WP.  In other words, even for charge, the 12 WP katana is a bit more like an 8.4 WP Katana (that can be doubled with two hands).

So I mean, once again basically a Mythril Gun, except for being the only remaining weapon that is two handsable.

Honestly, if you wanted to get some gnarly setup for Wiegraf/Velius, you could also just send Ramza to bard and buff stats during the wiegraf fight.

What about charge harps?  How real are those?  Hmm...maybe a little bit real actually.  Ramza, at least, can get to 7 MA by the end of Chapter 3, generic males might be 5 or 6.  PA will be 1 for 8.  Can use twist headband power sleeve for 12.  divide by 2 for 6.  6*13 = 78.  If you can get off say a Charge+3 that's 117.  And it's bloody strings so self-healing is happening.  And Concentrate exists as long as archer is still legal.  Huh, that sounds...actually kind of good.

The last thing I wanted to check was Archer MA mult.  The reason being, I could imagine you might want to go say, Archer with equip gun, and Draw Out secondary for Kiyomori and Murasame, and...honestly it looks useable?  80 MA mult, I was worried it would be 65 or something.  Murasame in Chapter 4 could be like...60-72 healing without equipping for MA.  Potentially like 120 if you just have someone hard equip for MA (and if you're using guns, like...sure, equipping for MA doesn't really hurt).  That's...not amazing, but certainly useable.

Hmm...I was expecting deeper analysis to point me more towards Monk here for the #13 spot, but I keep finding more reasons to stick to Archer instead.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 20, 2023, 05:24:36 AM
Starcraft

So Snowfire pointed this game out to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taPP871w6NM&t=2823s

Zerg vs Zerg where both players got into hive.

Defilers for plague on mutalisks, paired with hydras and mutas to shoot down enemy mutas, but also need lurkers cause otherwise zerglings would come in and kill all the hydras.

And then building ultras cause those beat lurkers.  And devourers to acid spore enemy mutas.

And Artosis mentioned that queens with spawn broodling are a possible counter to ultras.

(All this is possible only if they get to hive successfully, though).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 23, 2023, 06:14:30 AM
Starcraft

Ro8 Soulkey vs JyJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkwJ_OHJBzU

Game 5 had a full mech build against a build with many queens, like either queens or hydras were the unit zerg spent the most resources on.

The question came up too--you can't use spawn broodling on reavers, but if you could, would that be good?  So we tested with a siege tank and a dropship to see if you can pick up a tank in response to spawn broodling to cancel the spell, and yes: you can, and the queen still loses 150 energy.  So that's a thing--reaver shuttle micro would possibly invalidate spawn broodling anyway.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 23, 2023, 08:54:57 AM
So...I've been rethinking the whole trade approach to the starcraft unit tier list, and concluded it gets a bit weird when there's stuff like A-tier being all protoss units.  So...we get a bunch of looks at how good a unit would be in the hands of protoss, and none or very little in the hands of other races.

Thinking it's probably better to just look at a unit in all 9 matchups (extrapolating for the matchups where the unit would be traded).

Going with a simple scoring system like

4: matchup defining (defilers in ZvT, vultures in TvP, Siege Tanks in TvT)
3: mostly core, weird to play without them, but possible (Marine/Medic TvZ, Lurkers ZvT, High Templar PvT)
2: Nice to have (Dark Templar in every matchup, Ultras ZvT, Valkyries TvZ)
1: Has uses, but won't come up much (Dark Archons PvZ, Queens ZvT, Battlecruiser TvZ)
0: no use in the matchup.

So eg some samples with S tier units:

Zergling

ZvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining).

ZvT: 4/4 (matchup defining).  As impressed as I am by the hydra lurker defiler build, it still leans on zerglings for a long time.

ZvP: 3/4 (mostly core).  Used for early defence, some rushes, defiler food if the game gets that late.  But two builds stand out as mostly abandoning lings--lurker contains and hydra allins.

TvT: 3/4 (mostly core).  Are they more important than...any of the factory units?  I...don't think they are.  Like if one Terran had Vultures and one had Zerglings, I'd favour the vulture player.  If one terran had goliaths and the other had zerglings, I'd favour the goliath player.  But they are a superb unit to drop on tanks.

TvP: 4/4 (matchup defining).  Pretty sure Vulture Ling just destroys protoss--absolutely can't get map control.

TvZ: 3/4 (mostly core).  The rushes would be a problem; zerg's vulnerable to zergling rushes.  But going with all the other standard assumptions, which is to say terran zerglings would be coded to not fix terran's weakness to dark swarm, and would not get healed by medics...I think eventually terran would stop making them past some earlygame rush options.

PvP: 2/4 (nice to have?)  TBH, I actually haven't thought about this one too deeply, I assume they would drop off fast but there would be some kind of cheese cause they are better than zealots when in small enough numbers.

PvT: 2/4 (nice to have?)  Long games I think Zealots are generally better, but lings might be better when dropped out of dropships onto tank lines?  Might be worth making one or two to run in front and mine drag.  Might be worth it for just having a mobile army with map control sometimes.

PvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining) Um, yeah, zerglings destroy hydras cause unlike zealots they can catch them, and that seems like a big problem.  Add to that some really good cheese/pressure builds toss would pick up.

---

4s: 4
3s: 3
2s: 2

29/36

Siege Tank

TvT: 4/4

TvP: 4/4

TvZ: 2/4 (it can come up as a response to heavy lurker or heavy ultra play, but not an every game thing, and not the only possible response)

PvP: 4/4 (siege tanks would break this matchup)

PvT: 4/4 (Terran can't deal with siege tanks)

PvZ: 3/4 (Honestly I'm not super confident about this one so I'm hedging a little.  Siege Tanks might just be better against hydras than protoss tools like reavers and high templar, but...then again maybe not?  Could be anywhere from 2/4 to 4/4)

ZvZ: 0/4 (can't shoot up, lol).

ZvT: 4/4 (So...terran has to open either with goliaths or marines to handle mutas.  I assume zerg siege tanks would just break either of those comps unless zerg lost something super extreme like mutas or zerglings).

ZvP: 4/4 (a zerg hydra contain or hydra lurker contain backed up by siege tanks just sounds like it breaks the matchup.  Unless zerg loses like...hydra this sounds awful).

4s: 6
3s: 1
2s: 1
0s: 1

29/36

Mutalisk

ZvZ: 4/4

ZvT: 3/4 (technically possible to play without them as Shine demonstrated, but...still tempted to call this 4/4 just due to how much everyone hypes them up here).

ZvP: 2/4 (You don't need to make a single muta in any given ZvP, but the option is nice)

TvT: 4/4 (A little torn between 3 and 4 here, I don't think this would devolve into pure muta vs muta like ZvZ, but also we're talking about a flying unit that can fight goliaths and turrets reasonably well, and is way better than wraiths at picking off tanks, that sounds like it would suddenly become a real focus of the match).

TvP: 2/4 (I don't know that you make mutas every game, cause you do know that toss will at least have mass goons, and can really shut them down with the right tech, but the option for cheese seems nice).

TvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

PvP: 2/4 (I think both players are kinda forced to go stargate.  If one player skips stargate, well, mutas can fight pure dragoon just fine.  But once it's clear that both players won't just die to mutas, probably don't actually build them, just make the opponent worried about them).

PvT: 4/4 (Mutas break this matchup beyond recognition.  Vulture Tank can not shoot up).

PvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

4s: 5
3s: 1
2s: 3

29/36


---

Okay, I did not plan that at all, but all three S-tier units came out at 29/36.  That's...kinda neat, although who knows if I ranked everything perfectly here.

The real test will be some of the lower tiers, of course.

I haven't yet continued with this methodology, cause it turns out evaluating 9 matchups is tough, but let's evaluate queens.

Queen

ZvT: 2 I think.  I know I had them as the example of the "1" above, but the mere existence of queens scares most pros away from building mech ZvT, so even if they don't get built often, they do shape the matchup.  Having just seen a game with a lot of them may have raised my opinion too.

ZvP: 0.  No use here.

ZvZ: 0.  Just...they were highlighted as a possible counter to Ultras in super lategame hive vs hive, but super lategame basically never happens, and in the one super lategame hive vs hive game we ever saw, there were no queens--there could have been, but there were not.  One of two units we didn't see all game.  So...I think this is still a 0.

PvP: 1?  So...is there a world where these get built over high templars?  And...I think maybe?  They cost less gas.  High templar are slow ground based units, queens are fast air based units (same max speed as mutas).  Queens have 120 HP and 1 armour.  Ensnare probably decent in big dragoon fights (decrease fire rate and half movement both matter).  Storm would be better than ensnare, but again, queens are fast and somewhat maneuverable, that would be the reason to make them.  I'm not enamoured by the idea of spawn broodling since it doesn't work on reavers (spawn broodling on dragoons does work, but I don't think PvP games stall out enough for that).  Parasite might be ok--what are they going to do to get rid of the vision, kill their own dragoon?  You'd be fine with that.

PvT: 2.  Unit that is cost effective over time against siege tanks.  But time needed to build up energy is going to make them irrelevant for some timings, and you could also just go into Carriers too, or spend the gas on high templar.

PvZ: 0.  Surprisingly I'm really not feeling this one, despite all the big ground targets.  Ensnare against hydras when you are catching up with speedlots might be good.  Spawn broodling is obviously a fine choice against lurkers.  But I just have a hard time imagining spending the gas on queens over high templar.  One storm also tends to pretty close to kill a lurker (leave them with 10-30 HP) and you don't even need vision on it to land the storm, and it's 75 energy instead of 150.  And not sure it's worth-it to be vulnerable to scourge.

TvT: 4.  Yeah, I think these would be matchup defining.  The matchup that's all about siege tanks.

TvP: 0.  Maybe there's a world where ensnare is good in this matchup, cause it slows down and screws up ground armies charging into tanks, but I'm going to default to skepticism.

TvZ: 3.  Are there reasons to build this over science vessels?  Yes I think so, although lower priority cause you want to irradiate mutas until mutas aren't an issue anymore.  For about the same gas, you get the same amount of spawn broodlings as irradiates.  But spawn broodling can instantly clear out defences like lurkers, which otherwise you need to wait for the HP to slowly tick down.  Spawn broodling one shots ultras (which normally die to two irradiates).  A spawn broodlinged defiler can't get off one last desperation spell.  Also, they're a little better vs scourge (they get two shot like science vessels, but they're cheaper).

2 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 0 + 4 + 0 + 3 = 12/36

OK, and hydras might be worth looking at cause they are rising a bit (terran mech is becoming more popular, which makes hydras vs terran a thing.  Hydras vs zerg actually happened).

Hydra

ZvZ: 0.  This is maybe a 0.5 cause I have seen them used here once now, but still leaning 0.  Just...so underwhelming here.

ZvP: 4.  Not really convinced there's a way to play without these.  Someone did try this ASL in a macro game, but died pretty bad.

ZvT: 2.  You build them in response to mech.

PvP: 2.  They would be a cheese option.  Long term dragoons are preferable (once reavers and storm are out).  But an early hydra bust could knock down someone massing up dragoons with no AoE yet.

PvT: 0.  I just don't think you make them over dragoons in this matchup pretty much ever.  Same DPS as dragoons, but just die more to splash, and also die worse to vultures cause they're medium, and are worse at shooting down spider mines cause they need 4 volleys.

PvZ: 3.  You'd use them, like you use dragoons, when you have storm or a higher army pop.  But they'd be a bit better than dragoons against enemy hydras, and arguably also lings (higher DPS means lings don't get close as easily).

TvZ: 0.  Hydras bad vs zerg units.

TvT: 2.  They'd be fine I think.  They'd be a barracks unit.  A barracks unit that doesn't just die to vultures.  Also better than goliaths as far as their ground attack and HP goes to drop out of dropships on top of tanks.  Higher damage to tanks, survives about the same number of tank shots (2), costs less, less supply.  Their antiair is worse, and you presumably won't upgrade barracks so you'd stop making them eventually, but they'd be nice to have as an option.

TvP: 4.  Vulture Hydra would break the matchup.  Imagine terran but their barracks produces a unit that does something to protoss, specifically a unit that does all the things vulture doesn't (beats dragoons and kills buildings).

0 + 4 + 2 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 0 + 2 + 4 = 17

17/36.

Unsurprisingly better than queens, and worse than the obvious top 3 of Muta/Zergling/Siege Tank.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on September 29, 2023, 07:25:07 AM
More starcraft

Carriers getting Mini a couple of wins with carriers.  Nothing too new, but hey, carriers are back and winning.

Another moderately lategame ZvZ with effort

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nqOJlWGXpI

Devourers and a queen (for ensnare) made.

EDIT Notably, I suppose this is enough for me to bump queens up to 1/4 for ZvZ.  Made in an ASL game (and won).  Which pushes queens up to 13/36.

So...

Zergling 29/36
Siege Tank 29/36
Mutalisk 29/36
Hydralisk 17/36
Queen: 13/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 06, 2023, 08:04:40 PM
Starcraft:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIALkFIzjHw

ASL game where guardians were used (and another where the greater spire was started and then cancelled).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 07, 2023, 08:58:59 AM
Thinking about guardians.

So I was thinking they were super late tech, slower than other tech that other races get, but that's not necessarily true.

Spawning pool (50 seconds) Lair (63 seconds) Queen's Nest (38 seconds) hive (76 seconds) greater spire (76 seconds) morph existing mutas into guardians (25 seconds)

Total 252 seconds.

Compare to carriers

Gateway (38 seconds) Cybernetics core (38 seconds) stargate (44 seconds) fleet beacon (38 seconds) build time for carrier (88 seconds)

Total 246...but wait, there's more, cause you need to wait for the interceptors to build, which is another 104 seconds for all 8.  So...effectively probably slower in practice to have them actually effective.

So like...guardians given to protoss, after making fleet beacon you'd unlock the ability morph some building into a greater version of that building (I guess cybernetics core cause that's where flyer upgrades are).  This would take about 69 seconds.  And then after that you'd be able to morph...say, Corsairs into Guardians, something like that?

That...might be worth considering against some terran pushes if we hand around units between races.  Notably one issue with carriers is how long you have a lot invested into the carrier itself without any payoff--typically 12 supply and 1200 resources that aren't doing anything for about 100 seconds, and aren't at full power for another 90 seconds after that.  Meanwhile, guardians, there's getting the greater cybernetics core (or however it's implemented), but once you have that, you can translate resources into fighting units reasonably fast (50 seconds, 25 seconds if the corsair is already built).

So let's look at the guardian

Guardian

ZvT: 1/4.  Yeah, it's definitely not on the level of ultras or dark templars, but it's nice that it's there.

ZvZ: 0/4.  The one unit that really has no use I'm aware of in ZvZ.  Bricked by Dark Swarm, can't hit air.

ZvP: 0/4.  Don't think I've ever seen them tried.

PvP: 1/4.  So...ok, hear me out.  Yes, they're dragoons but double the price.  Same DPS, same HP basically, much slower.  However, they have 8 range, and they are immune to reavers.  A couple of these supporting a reaver/goon army doesn't sound too bad to me.  Punishes the enemy reaver for getting close enough to land hits fairly safely.  Stacks more damage in one place cause they can hover above dragoons.  That said, if your opponent also techs, but they tech into storm you are sad.  Still, I think there's something here.

PvT: 1/4.  Would they be an "every game" thing?  No.  Would they be an "every game when you have stargates and are going towards carriers" thing?  I don't know about that either.  Yes, scouts have been used in a pro game, but scouts also come out like...80 seconds faster.  And stopping your cybernetics core upgrades to get the "greater cybernetics core" is also a little iffy for carrier builds.  But guardians are an air to ground option that is not scouts (which have the problem of being terrible) and is also not carriers (which have the problem of taking a long time to pay off from the point when you spend the money).  So...I think there might be something there.

PvZ: 1/4.  The fact that I'm having them morph from the corsair I think is biasing me here, but yeah, you often have corsairs anyway in this matchup, and yeah, maybe at some point you'll decide you don't need those anymore and then maybe you think about guardians.  I do think they are pretty iffy in this matchup cause scourge exist, and zerg naturally builds hydras even against ground, and they take a bucket of gas which protoss needs for other things, but...I don't think they're quite at the zero point.

TvT: 3/4.  They're a unit that can kill tanks for free and kill turrets for free, and while they are very cost inefficient against say, goliaths, for some reason they are 2 supply in a matchup that often gets maxed out.  And presumably they would morph from the wraith, a unit you get anyway.  There is a question of "is it better to get battlecruisers" and...unclear.  Guardians are definitely better ground damage (both by cost and by supply).  They are certainly more damage than a wraith against ground (6 DPS to 16 DPS), and obviously a lot better if turrets need to be busted.  I don't think they break the matchup, but they look nice.

TvP: 0/4.  Terran just has no reason to make an air-to-ground unit in this matchup.

TvZ: 0/4.  Yeah, just make a siege tank instead.  Probably harder for them to kill cause scourge don't work, and a much better unit.


Guardian: 7/36.

Couple of interesting surprises here, like the fact that I ended up concluding Protoss would use them (occasionally) in all three matchups.  I also gave them a higher rating than hydras for TvT (but lower than queens) which...yeah, that's probably accurate.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 06:28:58 AM
Alright, let's run through some other zerg units.

Ultralisk

ZvZ: 1/4.  I guess technically this gets a 1, cause I have seen it this ASL season.

ZvT: 2/4.  It's honestly maybe getting to be on the low end of 2 in the current local meta, cause hydra lurker defiler is growing so much in popularity, but I think it still gets pulled out enough to merit a 2.

ZvP: 0/4.  I can not think of an ASL level game where there were ultralisks against protoss.

TvT: 1/4.  Do I think ultras would get used at all?  Hmm...they're very, very lategame, require quite a bit of investment, and splatter to tanks.  The one question I have is whether it might maybe be worth considering dropping them on tanks.  You can load two of them into a dropship (same number as tanks).  So like...maybe if dropship count is a concern?  Two unsieged tanks (Same supply) do out-DPS an ultra, so would actually be probably preferable to drop on a sieged tank.  It is more ground DPS than two goliaths (same supply, same amount of space used in a dropship) but not even by that much (like one ultra's ground damage is like 32 DPS, two goliaths are like 26 DPS).  Although well...hold on.  I suppose they would be factory units, and they (like siege tanks) benefit a lot from upgrades (+3 attack per upgrade, +9 attack for all three upgrades) whereas Goliaths do not benefit very much with upgrades.  And with all the upgrades they are quite a bit ahead of goliaths.  Ehh...maybe they have a niche.  I don't think they're core, but some chance of seeing a few in some niche situations.

TvP: 1/4.  The two things I will say in favour of ultras--they're fast, so they could run with the vultures and be raiding parties.  And they can shrug off storms.  But ehh...I think the mobile raiding party plan is hamstrung by the fact that they just are very late tech.  Also, I believe they are cost inefficient against both dragoons and zealots.  Like...I sent 12 zealots against 3 ultras--same total cost--and there were 6 zealots alive at the end.  (This was with full upgrades on both sides).  Still, the idea of having a mobile raiding force of ultras and zealots doesn't sound too bad--ultras kill the stuff like cannons that normally vultures are inefficient at killing.  They might be a very occasional lategame tech.

TvZ: 1/4.  So...still sticking with the general philosophy of "anything traded to terran becomes a ranged attacker, even if that means having a ranged attack of 0 like an SCV" and "no you can't heal ultras with medics".  They would be...good outside of dark swarm...if fully upgraded.  Like...6 armour would be a big deal against lings.  But since we assumed for TvT they would be factory units...yeah, probably not getting those upgrades.  And not something you would build when going mech cause it is absurdly cost efficient to spawn broodling them with queens.  But on the other hand, if they're mechanical factory units, there might be some cute strategies with irradiating them and charging down the enemies.  Or at least forcing zerg units that weren't burrowed to retreat out of dark swarm.  Maybe there's some world where you go primarily bio but get mech armour upgrades.  There might be a niche here.

PvP: 0/4.  Bad into dragoons.  Bad into reavers.  Very high tech.  Not seeing it at all.

PvT: 0/4.  Bad into siege tanks.  Wouldn't even be that good into vultures (the general rule of anything sent to protoss gets a chunk of its HP converted to shields, which vultures would shred like dragoon shields).  Yeah...not thinking of an application.

PvZ: 0/4.  Yeah, I mean, they'd be fine if zerg went ling, but they aren't great against hydras, which zerg basically always makes, and if things go lategame...I mean, armour stacking would have a bit of potential (very good against lings, moderately good against hydras) but that would only last until the ultra got hit by plague and then their armour would be easily bypassed.  Just not seeing this either.

---

Ultralisk: 6/36

Interestingly doing worse than Guardians.  Although worth noting, guardians got much more of their points from when they were traded to other races, and not from the actual in-game matchups.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 06:53:29 AM
Time for more bad zerg units I guess.

Devourer

ZvZ: 1/4.  They do occasionally get built in this matchup.

ZvT: 0/4.  I've seen them built once, maybe twice, when guardian rushes were in vogue for a bit.  The seeming use of them being to slow down the attack speed of the wraith.  But I'm not convinced that was better than just building one more guardian.

ZvP: 0/4.  On paper on pure island maps devourers are the answer to corsairs.  That said, I don't think I've seen devourers used against corsairs since like...2005?

TvT: 1/4.  I kind of want to ignore the valkyrie/devourer interaction (and corsair/devourer interaction), since it's so specific to mixed race compositions.  That said, I see no reason to ignore devourer/goliath interaction, since goliaths are just slightly better hydras, so that seems like fair game.  So the question becomes, do devourers invalidate battlecruisers?  And I feel like the answer has got to be no.  Sure, if battlecruisers get acid spores on them, they need to retreat, but retreating to the cover of tanks is usually possible in TvT, and on the flip side, Devourers are juicy yamato targets (get killed exactly--yamato deals 260, Devourers have 250 HP) so I don't think they like...invalidate battlecruiser play or anything.  But still, devourers would probably show up from time to time.

TvP: 2/4.  Devourers would be a pretty big deal against carriers.  Even if they only worked with goliaths and not valkyries they would still be big.

TvZ: 0/4.  By the time terran could have devourers out, they can also have science vessels, so no.

PvP: 0/4.  Yeah, so antiair in PvP is mostly for shuttles, which Devourers can't kill (6 DPS!  Less than an SCV lol).

PvT: 0/4.  The one thing I will say is that...if terran makes mass cloaked wraiths to kill carriers, one devourer could goop them so even if they snipe observers they'll be visible.  I...don't think this is enough to merit higher than a 0.

PvZ: 0/4.  Pretty sure Protoss can force zerg to switch off from mass muta play faster by just keeping their corsairs as corsairs than by teching into devourers and morphing corsairs into devourers.

---

Devourer: 4/36

Obviously I'm playing a bit loose with the "Devourer armour shredding doesn't play as nice with valkyrie/corsair as it does in actual 3v3 or whatever" which does lead this to being the lowest rated zerg unit, but that's on purpose.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 08:01:45 AM
Defiler is a big one, so...ok, let's do this.

Defiler

ZvT: 4/4.  Not much to be said, obviously a matchup defining unit.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Seen them in use in ASL, just the game usually ends before they can be teched into.

ZvP: 2/4.  ASL games don't go to defiler very often, but I do know plague is well respected in ZvP (to the point that Artosis wanted to nerf it for that matchup, or something).

TvT: 4/4.  So...okay, in the past when thinking about giving Defiler to Terran, I switched the polarity on dark swarm so that melee attacks miss, and ranged attacks hit, but especially in this matchup that's not what Terran wants at all.  Dark Swarming your tanks and not their tanks is good.  Dark Swarm against air is good.  Let's try just keeping dark swarm as-is.  There's also a funny mechanical quirk where consume requires eating a zerg unit--let's ignore that too.  ...Anyway, I think Defiler in TvT would just be absolutely core.  Good in tank vs tank.  Basically makes air play other than dropships pretty terrible against the defiler player.  And it's TvT so you absolutely have time to tech to them.

TvP: 2/4.  They absolutely invalidate carriers, but I don't know that they're all that exciting against other protoss builds.

TvZ: 3/4.  Um, yeah, so plague is a bit like irradiate, but the defiler can't be sniped by scourge, and can AoE multiple stacked lurkers, or just in general punish zerg for putting a bunch of units under a dark swarm.  You'd still build science vessels too--plague is only HP->1 so it doesn't delete enemy defilers.  But pretty sure you would use both.  Also just lets you fight fire with fire against hydra defiler--plague their hydras, dark swarm your marines against their hydras.  I think I'm going to shy just below the 4/4 rating here, though, cause if the zerg just goes ling ultra, and maybe skips lurkers (like a crazy zerg build) the terran wouldn't necessarily get defilers themselves.  (Although plaguing ultras would still be fine).  But certainly I would expect to see them frequently.

PvP: 2/4.  Would they be better than teching to high templar?  Maybe, all things being equal--plague really good against protoss units, probably better than storm.  Dark Swarm potentially relevant too.  But a lot of games just end up in a dragoon arms race where neither player can tech to high templar, and Defiler is deeper into the tech tree requiring more upgrades (Consume+Plague), and protoss has answers to dark swarm (like storm and reavers).  Defilers would be nice to have as an option, and I'd expect to see them sometimes, but I don't think they'd be an "every game" tech.

PvT: 3/4.  Yeah, zealots under dark swarm sounds decent.  Dark swarm to just get casters like defilers and high templars close without being insta sniped by tanks also sounds fine.  I don't think they would be an every game tech, just because they are so far up the tech tree, and siege tanks and spider mines make it so that dark swarm isn't an auto win or anything.  And protoss could still fake out terran and just bust out carriers.  But they'd show up pretty often.

PvZ: 2/4.  So like...when you already have storm, do you need plague?  Against zerg, when storm doesn't kill it should be pretty close to plague right?  A couple of reasons why you might consider plague--it's un-dodgeable, the AoE is a bit larger (33% larger square going by liquipedia).  But on the flip side, 150 energy compared to 75 for storm.  But you can manage that with consume.  And dark swarm is not nothing either (could matter for zealot vs hydra fights.  Makes it so that defilers can't be sniped by mutas).  Not every game, but you'd probably see them sometimes.

---

Defiler: 23/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 08:42:06 AM
So...the main zerg unit that's left is scourge (and after that just overlord).

Scourge

ZvZ: 4/4.  Arguably the least important of the big three, but also basically never see a ZvZ where none are built short of extreme cheese.

ZvT: 4/4.  Assuming a pretty normal SK terran, I don't think you can play without them, science vessels too important to kill.  Dropships are also good in this matchup, and would be a nightmare without scourge.

ZvP: 3/4.  Honestly, you do see them a lot in this matchup too.  It's not every game, cause zerg has some rushes where they never get a lair, but scourge chase off corsairs early on, they snipe observers in lurker contains, they are a big counter to shuttle play.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, use them against dropships.  Not every TvT gets to the mass dropship phase, and scourge don't like...completely prevent dropship play, cause I've seen plenty of patrolling scourge be pretty slow and dumb when it comes to dropships, and they are heavy gas, but still I'd expect to see them a lot.

TvP: 3/4.  Actually...yeah, I'd expect to see them a lot here too.  Cost efficient to snipe observers, and just makes mines a nightmare.  Good against shuttles.  Would smash carriers in small numbers.  You wouldn't always get them, cause you don't usually want a starport early unless you have a hard read on their build, but I'd expect to see them a lot.

TvZ: 1/4.  I don't think you want these against mutas--without your own fast air units, mutas can just moving shot and snipe them without getting hit.  You won't generally want to use these against overlords either, although there might be some cute cheese builds where you just suddenly supply block them at a key moment.  So like...I don't think they're a 0, if nothing else they are fine against guardian pushes.  But I don't think they would get built all that often.

PvP: 2/4.  Getting a few scourge to stop a shuttle with a reaver from dropping in your base?  Yeah, sure, seems fine.  Sniping observers also always a reasonable passtime.  But...I don't think these are an every or most game tech.  Can be good against some builds.

PvT: 2/4.  Sniping science vessels is...fine.  This isn't PvZ though, so it's not the end of the world if you just...don't bother.  And terran has scan, so it's not like sniping a science vessel will make an invisible army just win.  So like...it's mostly for the cost efficiency of 2 scourge are a good trade into a science vessel.  Not a game-changing essential unit built every game, but something you could mix in if you start seeing SVs.

PvZ: 1/4.  I'm sure there's some technical reason to build scourge over a corsair, but it would have to be something obscure like "the mutas are above my stargate waiting to snipe the next corsair that pops out".  Yeah, scourge would be a funny surprise in that narrow scenario.  For the most part just make corsairs instead, though.

---

Scourge: 23/36

Just as a bit of a recap

Zergling 29/36
Siege Tank 29/36
Mutalisk 29/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Hydralisk 17/36
Queen: 13/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 09:01:59 AM
OK, so overlord.

And just to clarify, protoss and terran if they get overlord, they don't lose the ability to make pylons/depots.  They can still build those for walls (and power in the case of pylons).  But they would start with an overlord for scouting, and could build more for supply or general utility. 

ZvZ: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

ZvT: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

ZvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

TvT: 3/4.  I think overlords would be unusually good here.  0 supply 0 gas dropships making maxed out armies bigger (even though sure, they are way slower than normal dropships, I still think they'd get used).  Spotters for tank fights.  Everyone always gets mines, so free detection is particularly impactful.

TvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

TvZ: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

PvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

PvT: 3/4.  Maybe these rise a bit above in this matchup too.  Again, terran always gets mines, so detection that doesn't shoehorn you into robo tech sounds relevant.  And cheap massable droppers that don't take supply (and count as pylons) is...I mean, yeah, protoss also likes dropping things on tanks, or potentially doom dropping faster than would be possible with arbiters.

PvZ: 2/4.  They have a nice little bonus over observers of it taking two scourge to kill them.  They also cost about the same as an observer but don't take gas, which protoss appreciates.  But at the end of the day...eh, don't think that's quite enough to sell them as a 3/10 don't think they'd fundamentally change the matchup.

---

Overlord 20/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 05:02:44 PM
There is one other zerg unit I forgot to do.

Lurker

ZvT: 3/4.  And these days with hydra lurker being the standard way to play getting close to 4/4, but crazy zerg (where you skip over lurker to ultra) is still a thing.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Mmm...what did I give ultras?  A 1 for this?  Yeah, well, ok, Lurkers get a 1 as well then.

ZvP: 3/4.  There are games that don't get them.  Hydra allins, mass muta+scourge plays.  But Lurkers do seem to be the stable way of playing.

TvT: 0/4.  I'm really not sure if they have any use in this matchup.  They punish melee units mostly, and Terran doesn't have those.  They might have some application as a drop in the opponent's base, cause SCVs, being effectively melee, can't fight them off the way they can fight off sieged tanks by getting on top of them.  But IDK, if you're worried about the fighting power of SCVs, just drop vultures right?

TvP: 2/4.  It would be very weird to make lurkers long-term in this matchup.  More expensive than tanks, more vulnerable to mine drags, more vulnerable to psi storm.  But...they cloak.  And protoss observers can be sniped.  So there's some potential for cheese.  And there's some potential for ultra-lategame supply efficiency.

TvZ: 4/4.  Extremely good against zerglings.  All splash, so fully effective under enemy dark swarms.  Yeah, I do expect these would be made over firebats.

PvP: 0/4.  Bad against dragoons.  Bad against reavers.  Worse as cloak cheese than DTs.  I just don't see a niche for them.

PvT: 1/4.  Pretty bad in the main army, but I think there might be niche uses against vulture runbys specifically in bases that have narrow ramps.  But...I'm still a little skeptical.  You'd need like four of them stacked on top of each other, and you'd have to be pretty careful to give the vultures no way to spread against them cause they are medium armour so easy for the vultures to kill.

PvZ: 2/4.  They are terrible against hydras unless there's a lack of detection.  Maybe there could be hold lurker plays against hydras, though?  Or corsair lurker might have some merit over Corsair DT just cause overlords need to expose themselves more against lurkers, which makes them easier to snipe, letting the corsairs do more work.  Alternatively, if it gets to a very lategame point with cracklings and defilers, Lurkers could play a similar role to a reaver where they just punish the zerg for ever sending cracklings at the main army, and are fully effective under dark swarm.  Reavers already do both of those things, but maybe Lurkers have enough of a niche, like not needing to spend minerals on every scarab shot, or not needing shuttles to move around with the army (and thus making the army not scared of scourge), or the small added extra annoyance of being cloaked.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

---

Lurker: 16/36.

OK, just as a bit of bookkeeping, I guess I'm giving pretty much all the zerg units (except guardians) 1/4 for the ZvZ matchup, and Hydra previously got 0/4 for that, so +1 for hydras as well then.

Zergling 29/36
Siege Tank 29/36
Mutalisk 29/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 18/36
Lurker 16/36
Queen: 13/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 08, 2023, 11:32:51 PM
I guess there is technically one other unit from zerg.  The drone.

So...how will handing drone to other races work?  Let's say drone is given to Terran.  I guess something like this:

* Drone is built out of the command center.
* Drone can morph into terran buildings and not zerg buildings, but needs to build "on creep" (close enough to the command center).
* Drones obviously do not have the repair action.
* An appropriate discount for terran buildings morphed into by the drone will be applied (and likewise, for protoss, if borrowing probe, warping in buildings would be slightly more expensive to compensate for not occupying a worker).
* Normal swapping rules do NOT apply, so e.g. probes would keep protoss shields, drones would still be biological and keep zerg regeneration.  This is to help differentiate between probes and drones which would otherwise be identical fighters when traded.

ZvZ: 2/4.  You'll fight with drones sometimes if you're rushed, like hatch first vs 9 pool.

ZvT: 2/4.  Same as above but proxy hatch.  Also a good scout that can kill a building SCV.

ZvP: 2/4.  Yeah, drone pulls vs cannon rush happen.

TvT: 2/4.  Yeah, if you had them and your opponent didn't, there would be some nice potential for harass, and potential to deny scouting.  Nice to have.

TvP: 2/4.  A worker that doesn't just die to moving shot when scouting, and which can chase off harassing probes.  Potentially you might even use the morph into structure ability in some specific scenarios, like when there's a proxy gate, just so that there's no way to delay the factory from finishing by killing the building SCV.

TvZ: 2/4.  I think there's a lot fewer applications against zerg than against protoss.  Yes, Terran would like to not lose their building SCV, but terran makes wall-ins in this matchup, so the "build on creep" limitation means that drones aren't really a solution.  But...you'd probably still make one drone for scouting.  And maybe you'd use drones to morph turrets in your mineral line so that the building SCV can't easily be sniped.  So a slightly lower 2, but still a 2.

PvP: 0/4.

PvT: 0/4.

PvZ: 0/4.

---

Drone: 12/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 09, 2023, 07:21:30 AM
I guess moving on to the big protoss units.

Zealot

PvP: 3/4.  Can you play a PvP without making a zealot?  Yeah, if you both just macro and make dragoons.  But Zealots are important both for cheesing and defending cheese and even early non-cheese pressure and defence.  It's not like it's an unusual game when zealots get made.

PvT: 4/4.  Can't play without them.

PvZ: 4/4.  Can't play without them.

ZvZ: 3/4.  So like...ok, let's talk larva efficiency.  I think for units given to zerg, some of them will need to require multiple larva.  Like...carriers, carriers occupy a building that costs about as much as a hatchery for 90 seconds or so, to map that properly you'd need like...7 or 8 larva to fuse together to make a big carrier egg.  So...anyway, how many larva would a zealot cost?  1 larva.  It's a unit that takes 25 seconds to build out of a 150 mineral structure (gateway).  Larva spawn on a building that cost about twice as much at about twice that speed (something like once every 12 seconds).  And that is quite a bit more larva efficient than zerglings.  That said...zealots are still slow, zealots in low numbers still are mineral inefficient against lings, and the speed upgrade for zealots would probably be like...lair tech (citadel completes roughly around the time of lair, the upgrade is slow, and even if started immediately would finish around the time when the first mutas popped).  So...I'm not sure if you're getting that tech at all, maybe zealots would get dumped after the earlygame.  Still, they would definitely get some use.

ZvP: 3/4.  I'm hedging a little here, but I think protoss can deal with zealots, as they aren't usually massed up in PvP.  I suspect specifically even if zerg has a bunch of zealots, and protoss has a bunch of zealots, and they're in a line fighting, that a single reaver just tips that fight very far towards protoss.  So I don't think this is a 4/4.  That said, there's several points before Reavers where protoss can use Zealots to trade efficiently--at first behind mineral lines trading effiicently with lings.  Later trading well with hydras if they can get on top of them.  Zerg having their own zealots at this point lets them trade a bit more neutral, so yeah, not saying no to that.

ZvT: 4/4.  Yeah, pretty sure zealots break this matchup.  They fill some of the same roles as ultralisks, but they're hatchery tech, and don't get countered by siege tanks (unlike ultras).  Like...I think they cause big problems for bio pushes and also bio tank pushes.  Like...flank with zealots, and then when the zealots draw fire, come in with lings and mutas.

TvT: 3/4.  So I'm looking at this, and I gave Zergling 3/4 for TvT.  And...yeah, I see the logic.  Yes, excellent unit to drop on tanks.  But...it would be a barracks unit, so not getting upgrades, and like...not good until a ways into the game, and it's not like the opponent would be unable to drop onto tanks, with units that have other utility besides being dropped out of dropships.

TvP: 2/4.  Zealot tank pushes are very good, and have come up when, for example, a protoss mind controlled an SCV.  That said, I think the upgrade there is upgrading dragoon to tank, and in the case of mind control...presumably the protoss had good upgrades on zealots (they would be a barracks unit for terran).  I think Terran will still mostly stick to vultures over zealots.

TvZ: 3/4.  So ok, normal rules about units going to terran apply, which means Zealot becomes a range unit with 0 range so they can't hit under dark swarm.  Also, zealot does not get healed by medics.  But also, they have all HP and no shields (with a bit less HP to compensate).  That said...I'm still trying to decide if they break the matchup, and...the one thing I think keeps them in check is that they don't hit mutas.  They would break ground combat for sure, like...ling surrounds on marines are borderline invalidated if terran can surround their army with a wall of zealots.  But if you're building, say, 20 zealots to surround your marines, you can't actually move out against mutas, they will just dart in and out and kill the marines, and then the zealots are free pickings.  And then once defilers are out zealots become manageable--dark swarm wrecks them due to rules of terran inheriting a unit, and plague also wrecks them.  Still, I mean, Zealots would be fine and pop up both early and late.

---

Zealot: 29/36

Surprisingly these actually join the top tier with siege tank, mutalisk, and zergling.

I am surprised they ended up tied with zergling.  Seems like the main place that zergling lost points relative to zealot is PvP and PvT.  In general, units should be expected to score slightly higher in their own race, as often when given to other races the other races have competing units that fill the same role.  And that's a problem zergling has in PvP and PvT--zealot can fill most of the same roles, and zergling while having some early applications seems likely to drop off--a bit too fragile.  Whereas the other way around, giving Zealot to zerg, Zealot gives zerg a sturdy unit, which is never not relevant.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 09, 2023, 07:47:50 PM
Reaver

PvP: 4/4.  One of the two most important units.

PvT: 3/4.  Seen in most games, and forces terran off of bio.  But you do tend to tech out of them.

PvZ: 2/4.  Reavers aren't like shocking to see in this matchup, but not that common.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Only reason I'm giving this a 1 and not a 0 is the rare lategame hive zerg, where yeah, reavers under dark swarm with hydras would kind of beat everything.

ZvT: 4/4.  Do reavers just break this matchup?  Would they be seen every game?  They would be felt a lot later than reavers from protoss, cause zerg transport tech comes out so much later, but...they do basically force Terran off of bio, which is relevant no matter when in the game it happens.  And once terran is on Mech...Reavers are pretty good at stopping mech from pushing too, and very mineral heavy which is a good complement to queens.  Also makes it harder to put goliaths in front of tanks to zone queens, cause then reavers get free shots.  Yeah, I think that does just break things.

ZvP: 4/4.  Reavers are like turbo-charged lurkers.  Invalidate zealots much harder.  Way better against dragoons.  If there's a contain with hydras, Reavers can actually start sieging buildings.  If they get stormed, they can just get picked up by an overlord.  Nasty under dark swarm.  I think you do still use lurkers as well, since exploiting the weakness of protoss detection keeps protoss from counterpunching.  But the reaver really seals the deal.

TvT: 2/4.  Decent as a drop I guess.  But for the most part you'll make tanks.

TvP: 3/4.  Do reavers completely break this matchup?  I suspect no, cause protoss can just go carriers.  But they do cause some problems on the ground as they can really thin out zealots fast.

TvZ: 4/4.  One of the rare ranged but 100% splash units that therefore works under dark swarm and breaks this matchup.

---

Reaver: 27/36

Just below the very top tier, but not by much.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 09, 2023, 08:34:38 PM
Dragoon

PvP: 4/4.  One of the two most important units in this matchup.

PvT: 4/4.  One of the most important units in this matchup.

PvZ: 3/4.  Not made literally every game, but made often enough.  A good choice against lurkers--beats them quite hard with detection.  Fine against hydras if the hydras get stormed.

TvT: 3/4.  So...barracks unit, so you probably switch off of them after a while.  But barracks unit that does well against vultures, and is better than goliaths are against ground (although worse against air).  You'd probably see at least a few of them most games, although I don't think one player having dragoons and the other not makes the matchup unwinnable for the player without dragoons.

TvP: 3/4.  So they'd require an Academy I guess?  Yeah, I once again think eventually you switch off of them, but they probably give terran a nice edge early on--make their barracks useful.  Might enable terran to expand a little faster as they wouldn't need to rush factory--mass dragoons would perform fine.  Earlier academy gives earlier scanners, so that covers risk of DT rush.

TvZ: 2/4.  Against zerg, marines are better than dragoons in almost all scenarios--marines are better against mutas, lings, sunken colonies, etc.  But...two exceptions.  The first is that dragoons do a lot better against lurkers--they match them in range, are not scared of the AoE, and a single dragoon (with vision) can 1v1 a lurker.  Just...need to make sure the dragoon isn't also in range of a sunken, cause those deal 40 damage to dragoons.  And it's a bit dubious whether you would make a dragoon over just making a tank if lurkers and sunkens are the concern--I guess the reasons to consider dragoons over tanks are that dragoons are a bit more mobile, and a bit less snipable by mutas so maybe there's an argument there.  The other case where you might want dragoons is against ultras.  Just...not really stopped by ultra armour.  The final thing worth considering is supply efficiency.  Terran can max out or close against zerg, and dragoons are a bit more supply efficient than marines.  I don't think we'd see them a lot, but we'd see them occasionally.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Dragoons are bad for the same reason hydras are bad.  And look, maybe if you get to hive, get dark swarm, and would build hydras under dark swarm, maybe now you'd consider Dragoons instead, but I'm not convinced that's preferable, and even if it is preferable the edge is so minor I don't really want to credit it.

ZvP: 2/4.  Hydras are better until there's a lot of AoE like storm, and also large army sizes make 6 range units preferable to 5 range ones.  I do think situationally zerg would make the switch, though.  If protoss is contained on two bases, and the zerg has more bases, yeah, just go dragoons so that fancy plays like storm are much less likely to give the protoss an out.

ZvT: 1/4.  Hmm...what did I give hydras in this matchup?  Wait, 2/4 saying they're only good against mech?  Ehh...ok, maybe that should be a 3/4, since hydra lurker defiler has continued to be very popular.  Anyway, is there a reason to build dragoons over hydras against terran?  It would have to be a weird situation like terran is making vultures.  I think hydras are generally better paired with defiler plagues, generally better against tanks, probably about the same into goliaths, substantially worse against science vessel irradiate.  I have seen heavy vulture play against zerg in ASL, though, it's rare but it can happen, so I guess this isn't a 0.

---

Dragoon: 22/36

And adjusting hydras up to 3/4 into Terran here's the current count:

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 09, 2023, 09:03:44 PM
I am curious to see if there can be another top tier unit, and the only likely candidate left is Vulture so...

Vulture

TvT: 3/4.  You mass them for a bit to get map control, but after a few minutes you stop making them.

TvP: 4/4.  Literally the best anti-protoss unit.

TvZ: 1/4.  While heavy vulture play is very rare, speed vulture getting in and killing all the drones before mutas can pop is a cheese I've seen win in the ASL.  Doesn't work if the Zerg knows it's coming--they'll make spines in the nat and block.  But like...the same could be said of DTs.  That said, if DTs and overlord scouts are the measure of 2/4, I think I value this a bit below that.  Rarer cheese.

PvP: 3/4.  I mean, both sides are making mass dragoon anyway, so vultures are like...while obviously good into protoss I don't think they actually break the matchup.

PvT: 4/4.  Does this break the matchup?  I think vultures would be made by protoss basically every game, and protoss already out-expands and out-mines terran, but now protoss could stop terran from dealing economic damage.  And vultures are...maybe a bit worse than zealots in big combats, but fine, lay mines on top of tanks.  Laying mines would also give a ton of vision and slow tank pushes.  Hmm...sounds like yes.

PvZ: 2/4.  I don't think vultures do very much against zerg, at least early on.  They're cost neutral against hydras, so that is nice.  But realistically the robo is probably busy building other stuff.  (Same reason when there's a lurker contain you aren't really building reavers cause you need to keep building observers).  If you can get past the midgame threats--the risk of hydra bust, the risk of mass mutas, the likely lurker contain, I do think you make vultures, but often a protoss who gets past those threats is already winning.

ZvZ: 3/4.  They make for a nasty pre-muta all-in, where if the opponent is only defending with lings and not sunkens it's over.  But like...would they always cause a weaker player to beat a slightly stronger player?  Ehh...just make some sunkens.  Obviously a nice advantage to have the option of having them vs not having them, you can force sunkens, you can make ling floods against you weaker, but I don't think they auto-win.

ZvT: 4/4.  Force terran off of bio.  Doesn't stop mech, but really slows it down and gives a ton of map vision at no mineral cost.  Yeah, breaks the matchup.

ZvP: 4/4.  Yeah, so like Zealots are the main tool against zerg.  Vultures would break this matchup.

---

Vulture: 28/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2023, 06:11:40 PM
Medic/Marine

So...once again treating medics as basically a marine upgrade.  Once again medics are assumed not to heal units of other races if traded--just heal marines.

TvT: 2/4.  Do people build marines in this matchup?  Yeah, looks like usually a couple right at the start of the game, chase off enemy scouts.  If one vulture shows up, can help your vulture kill their vulture.  I imagine there's some cheeses too.

TvP: 2/4.  Honestly, higher impact than TvT, but same general category.  Low impact unit you use a bit for early defence then tech out of.

TvZ: 3/4.  Not completely essential since mech builds exist, but still very, very good and notably considered better than mech.

ZvZ: 4/4.  Do I think these break the matchup if one side has them and the other doesn't?  Um...probably?  Spawning pool tech unit that can chase away overlords, so no scouting for one side.  Unit that can break the symmetry on zergling walls.  All or at least mostly mineral investment (stim and medics cost some gas) that does reasonably well against mutas.  If your mutas are over your marine pack, basically can't get scourged, but their mutas can still get scourged.  More larva efficient (would be like 2 marines per larva).  I don't know that any of these factors individually breaks the matchup, but all of them together is a lot.  No overlord scouts.  Threat of winning the ling fight due to marine backup.  Threat of invalidating scourge.  Threat of winning the air war.  More larva for drones.

ZvT: 3/4.  Would zerg use marine medic?  Yeah, sure, better hydra to pair with hydra lurker defiler right?  Would it be every game?  Would it break the matchup?  I mean, no, if terran goes mech zerg doesn't make marine medic, for example.

ZvP: 2/4.  Zerg would switch off of marine/medic?  Yeah.  But early on they'd be nice.  Two marines cost the same as a hydra and have a bit more DPS if going for a bust and don't deal half damage to zealots.  But yeah, absolutely don't want a 40 HP unit once storms and reavers come out.

PvP: 0/4.  Yeah, I really don't see the application here.

PvT: 0/4.  Maybe there's a rush build where you build a marine instead of a second zealot, just so that enemy marines can't hide between buildings.  But I'm fairly skeptical--enemy marines could just shoot your marine back.

PvZ: 3/4.  It's a unit that's cost-efficient against hydras, so that's a big deal.  But it suffers more against lurkers, and protoss still has a big detection problem (no scans, easy to snipe observers).  And obviously defilers also do great against marine/medic.  I think marine/medic would be good, would get used most games, but wouldn't make the matchup unwinnable.

---

Marine/Medic: 19/36

This notably puts them exactly tied with hydralisk, which yes, that is similar to where they were under the other method.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2023, 07:04:23 PM
Scout

PvT: 1/4.  Yes, there was that one match where they got used in an ASL finals or whatever.

PvZ: 1/4.  Yes, there is the occasional scout rush if the protoss scouts that it's spire but not hydra den, they can get a scout out and start hitting drones.

PvP: 0/4.  Never seen it here.

TvT: 0/4.  Is there a world where these get built over wraiths?  They unironically are ok air to air.  Like...one scout vs two wraiths is roughly a "they will all die at the same time" matchup.  But a scout does cost less supply than 2 wraiths.  And resource wise does cost slightly less than double of two wraiths.  And also more mineral heavy letting you get out more gas heavy factory units.  Obviously can't cloak, but maybe that's ok.  But also...4 range instead of 5, but maybe that's ok.  And obviously much worse ground attack, but maybe that's ok.  The thing that kills me though is that they need an upgrade on the fleet beacon to even have the same movement speed as a wraith and it's a really expensive upgrade (200/200).  And that I think is just the final nail here.

TvP: 0/4.

TvZ: 0/4.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Would scouts get built in this matchup?  So...worth at least considering right?  Air to air they are about the same as a muta against light targets like enemy mutas, and maybe slightly better if both sides get +1 carapace.  They are more mineral heavy, that could be nice--basically if you're safe on the ground, can use minerals to win the air fight.  However...so like there's a question of how many larva they would need, and I think it's probably about 4, and that makes them relatively unattractive.  And then also, no chance in hell are you getting the speed upgrade for them, which means they kind of just die to scourge (dead to 3 scourge hits, or 2 scourge hits and a bit of muta damage).  And I think that combined with high larva cost just sinks them.

ZvT: 0/4.  So...they move just a little bit slower than dropships.  That sucks.  They would technically survive irradiate with like 1 health, and they deal a lot of damage to science vessels, but I still don't think they're a good pick against science vessels.  If they're plagued, a muta is better.  If they're not plagued, irradiate is still good (reminder that zerg scouts would be irradiatable).  But...I'm considering them still.  Why?  Battlecruisers are a real lategame TvZ tech, and scouts beat battlecruisers in a way that hydras or scourge do not.  That said, if the battlecruiser has yamato ready to go it still becomes pretty sketchy for scouts (like you'd need 3 scouts cause one would get yamatoed, and you still might lose a second one and be cost-inefficient).  They're also a big larva investment (4 larva per scout) and build slow (50 seconds) so you can't really build them in response to a battlecruiser arriving at your base.  Ehh...no, I think that's too many problems for these to be a serious counter.  Building like...8 scourge takes less time, and less larva, and less overall resources (but more gas).

ZvP: 0/4.  Corsairs deal half damage to mutas, but full damage to scouts lol.  Also, scouts don't even deal full damage back to corsairs.

---

Scout: 2/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 11, 2023, 07:23:28 PM
Corsair

PvZ: 4/4.  Admittedly there are some hydra bust games where protoss might only build 1 or 0 corsairs.  But if zerg knew protoss couldn't build corsairs?  Yeah, mutas every game.  I guess protoss rushes dark archon, but that's pretty slow and the matchup probably just becomes awful.

PvT: 0/4.  Corsairs have come up in ASL PvT, but we're talking like...island maps.

PvP: 0/4.

TvT: 4/4.  I actually think these just break the matchup.  Beat like everything in the air until battlecruisers.  And unironically disruption web if one side had access to it and the other did not would just be a huge problem.

TvP: 0/4.  Wraiths are better against individual shuttles and individual arbiters.  Corsairs aren't the answer to carriers.

TvZ: 4/4.  Corsair tank vulture I think breaks this matchup.

ZvZ: 4/4.  Yeah, corsairs make one side just win the muta war.

ZvT: 2/4.  When you plague a bunch of science vessels, corsairs are an improvement over mutas to clean them out.  More range, more HP, attack faster.  A nice upgrade, although not super essential.

ZvP: 3/4.  Know what corsairs would be pretty good against?  Enemy corsairs.  I don't think it's break the matchup level of a problem--if the protoss hard pumps corsairs they can hold it.  If the protoss gets a dark archon they can hold it.  But...still makes a good and somewhat commonly used allin even stronger.

---

Corsair: 21/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 01:30:09 AM
Carrier

PvP: 0/4.  Have not seen this in recent ASL games.

PvZ: 0/4.  Have not seen this in recent ASL games.

PvT: 2/4.  Nice tech path option.

ZvZ: 1/4.  So carriers would clearly be hive tech, and a long term investment, but yes, if the tech gets that far they would get used.

ZvP: 0/4.  I think they're a bit too vulnerable to dark archons (mind control instant stealing a carrier).  Especially given how long it takes to make a carrier switch, including interceptor build time--if any scouting reveals the tech switch, protoss should have time to counter the carriers.

ZvT: 1/4.  Carrier would become biological.  And then it would die to two irradiates.  Granted, marines can't actually kill an upgraded carrier (more armour than an ultralisk) and maybe it could be a way to pop units that had been hit by plague.  So I'll give the benefit of the doubt here and give it a small amount of points, but it still would be a pretty rare thing I think.

TvT: 3/4.  So battlecruisers can actually fight carriers.  If they just sit in each other's range, and have equal upgrades, 3 battlecruisers will beat 3 fully stocked carriers without using Yamato.  But...carriers can potentially kite--interceptors will continue to attack a target when the carrier is up to 12 range away.  Carriers are more mobile--battlecruisers have 1.86 speed, carriers have 2.48 speed.  Carriers kill ground units a little bit faster.  There are ways to beat carriers TvT including just building battlecruisers, so I don't think it breaks the matchup.  But I do think carriers would be made.

TvP: 0/4.  Bottom line, if battlecruisers don't make sense to build for Terran, I don't think Carriers will make the cut either.  The spellcaster situation is asymmetric, with arbiter stasis and dark archon mind control both being serious threats to a terran carrier army.

TvZ: 0/4.  Battlecruisers are good versus zerg cause they one-shot scourge, and also have more HP.  Carriers are unusually vulnerable because plagued interceptors on returning to the carrier will not re-launch (interceptors do not launch until they have full health, which doesn't happen till plague wears off).  I don't really see building carriers over battlecruisers in this matchup.

---

Carrier: 7/36

So it's surprising to me that carriers are this low.  Almost as low as ultralisks.  Tied with guardians.

Guardians got some free points cause protoss is starved for air to ground units before carriers.  And singular expensive units are bad in ways that less expensive units like guardians aren't always.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 05:08:09 AM
A lategame PvZ with mass lurkers, defilers, reavers, high templars (which protoss eventually wins).  Ladder game between Rain and Action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug-ScYJvUSg
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 06:48:28 AM
Arbiter

PvP: 0/4.  Can't remember seeing one in ASL.

PvT: 2/4.  An occasional tech.

PvZ: 0/4.  Not really an option because scourge shut it down so hard.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Even in the lategame ZvZ scenario...wouldn't you just make defiler instead?  Like...maybe stasis would be fine, but Arbiter costs more than double of a defiler, and is more vulnerable to scourge snipes.

ZvT: 2/4.  So...it would become biological, so it would be irradiate bait, although an arbiter can survive one irradiate.  The obvious thing to go for is stasis.  And if you get a big stasis on a bunch of science vessel or a chunk of bio, and then the zerg is able to control that area, yeah, the stasised units should be really dead.  Can surround the stasised ground units with burrowed lurkers.  Can surround stasised science vessels with scourge (that can be built after the stasis lands and they'll hatch in time).  The other thing you could do is just recall.  You can recall burrowed lurkers, defilers, lings, and as we've seen Terran really struggles to stop recalls like this.  So...I think it's fine.  But it is a very long-term investment, a bit like carriers you need to be able to set aside about 500 gas for a solid 2.5 minutes without dying.  Would really want to stabilize with hive tech first, and then maybe arbiter is the killing blow.

ZvP: 1/4.  So...do you want to recall a big ball of units in the protoss' main base?  Well...if the protoss is ready for it, they see a ball of nicely clumped units and they get a nice storm.  But...I could see potentially wanting a stasis.  In particular, if the high templar are in a clump, and you stasis them, you probably just win that fight, the remaining protoss army probably retreats.  That said, killing the high templar out of stasis might be really messy, as they do gain energy while they are in stasis, so if the opponent reacts fast to stasis dropping they could drop a lot of storms.  But I think there's an additional angle here of protoss detection being very snipeable by zerg, so maybe just the cloak filed is relevant enough.  For all that you can still storm cloaked units.  Eh, certainly not an every game thing--it's slow to build slow to research and expensive, and nothing here sounds like a slam dunk.  But stasis is a strong spell, and maybe cloaking hydras is worth it, and protoss won't kill arbiters all that easily unless they keep corsairs alive; there might be something here.

TvT: 4/4.  One terran having arbiters and the other not basically means one terran will always have an edge if the fight goes to battlecruisers.  But also just...recall good, this is the matchup where people will build 8 dropships, and recall does that better.  Stasis good.  Stasis some tanks and then plant mines with vultures or move your army in.  Stasis a clump of dropships and then move Goliaths underneath.  Stasis a clump of wraiths and move goliaths underneath.  If the game goes into a split map scenario, I think one terran the terran that doesn't have arbiters, is very crippled in the kind of air play they can pull off safely, and just rushing down tanks on land is not really viable, so seems like this matchup would just break, yes.

TvP: 4/4.  So for starters, Carriers just not a viable tech, stasis is too strong against them.  But also, if you're rushing down a tank vulture line, and an arbiter freezes half your army, and then the rest of your army has to start walking around stasised units--yeah, your attack is just over.

TvZ: 3/4. So...I checked it out just now, and stasis doesn't work on burrowed lurkers.  Stasis doesn't work on sunken colonies either.  I don't think there's much chance of recall either, cause scourge are so good at stopping that.  Although terran can build 2-3 dropships sometimes, so maybe I shouldn't completely write off recall, one arbiter is about the cost of two dropships.  However, what's intriguing me is that there might be a cute tactic where you stasis the defiler defending a base before it can dark swarm.  Or let's say the zerg has a main and a nat, but only has a nydus canal in one of them.  You could stasis units coming down the ramp, and act a bit like an SC2 sentry.  And you know, the invisibility isn't terrible either.  If you make science vessels invisible, it's harder to hit them with scourge, and harder to land good plagues.  Obviously you just aim for the arbiter, but the arbiter can be further back, and isn't as vulnerable to scourge (takes 4 scourge hits to kill instead of 2, but nowhere near double the price).  Invisible marines are nice too.  To be clear, plague makes everything visible so this is a solvable problem, I don't think it's an auto-win.  But...ehh, arbiters sure sound like they have some nice tricks in this matchup.

---

Arbiter: 16

Interesting how almost all of the power of this unit is coming from terran--okay when used against terran by almost any race.  Monstrously good if given to terran.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 07:59:03 AM
Archon

So ok, rating these as a stand-alone unit, like instant morphing two high templar straight out of a gateway.  This incidentially is something that is occasionally done in ASL games as a defence against mutalisk allins (a few links for this earlier in the topic)

PvP: 0/4.  While you might morph an archon after storming, I have not seen archons instant-morphed in this matchup.

PvT: 0/4.  Never an instant morph here.  Archons are almost entirely shields, so take full damage from both vultures and tanks.

PvZ: 1/4.  Very occasional, like haven't seen it this season but have seen it in previous seasons emergency tech against muta allins.

ZvZ: 3/4.  I think they have some potential.  They are "good" against zerglings in that they have splash.  Although...worth noting that an equivalent number of zerglings to archons is 16 zerglings, and 16 zerglings do win that fight if there's no other ground support, but you could provide ground support like your own zerglings (which would help a lot since archons leave zerglings at 5 HP).  They are also "good" against mutas.  In a heads up fight we're talking for a unit that only costs about twice as much, about triple the health and triple the damage with splash.  Though again, "good" is in quotation marks here, cause archons do have less range than mutas (2 range vs 3 range) and it's hard but ASL level players can sometimes micro mutas to not get hit by archons while shooting the archon.  It's very hard, and ASL level players do mess up occasionally (eating a lot of AoE damage) but possible.  We're also talking the equivalent gas investment of a citadel and a templar archives to unlock the tech, which is 300 gas.  And then another 300 gas to build the first archon.  So like...I don't think archons are an auto-win.  But I do think we would see them.  They are good enough against both mutas and lings.  They just dictate when and where muta engagements can happen.  Got an archon to retreat to?  Scourge can't chase you.  Got an archon to retreat to?  Enemy mutas can't moving shot chase you down.

ZvT: 0/4.  Ultras, if ultras were slow and didn't have armour and didn't deal full damage under dark swarm.  As always with units traded to zerg they'd become biological, so they're irradiate bait.  But unlike ultras they have range 2 so their AI would social distance themselves from the marines unless specifically microed otherwise.  The one thing I will say is that you can get these a lot sooner than ultras, like basically lair tech.  But they don't seem great against units with like...range.

ZvP: 0/4.  So I was initially enthusiastic.  Like, hey some splash damage against zealots, that doesn't sound too bad.  A unit that is not at all vulnerable to storm, that sounds pretty nice.  Then I ran a test of 4 zealots against one archon.  So...yeah, three zealots survived.  IDK, maybe there's a brilliant application I'm not thinking of, but I'm not sure what role this unit would play.

TvT: 0/4.  Melee unit to drop on tank is always a little bit interesting.  I did give ultralisks a 1/4 here.  But...not so much because they beat up tanks unusually well.  More that they beat up tanks acceptably, around as good as dropping your own tanks, but did quite well against goliaths cause of their armour, and quite well against vultures too (still bad against tanks that can shoot back).  Archons...don't have those properties.  Also, explicitly a unit that comes out of gateways, so would be using barracks upgrades.

TvP: 0/4.  Not great against zealots.  Terrible against dragoons.  Not enough range to fight off carriers.  Now, I did give ultras some credit in this matchup for being fast, and being a raiding party with vultures, could archons do this?  Ehh...they're barely faster than goliaths (3.5 speed goliaths, 3.7 speed archons) so no, I don't think they open up any particular opportunity there.

TvZ: 1/4. OK, there might be something here.  They're a barracks unit, so benefit from the right upgrades.  At full 3 attack upgrades they do one-shot lings even with +3 carapace.  They have splash, so they do things under dark swarm--not full functionality, mind you, but something.  One archon trades pretty evenly with one ultra.  They have the potential to muck up zerg's muta harass.  They have a lot of HP, so sticking them in front of a marine army wouldn't be bad.  OK, but like...now we need to consider, is it better to make 1 archon or like...5.3 firebats.  Firebats don't deal partial damage under dark swarm, they deal full damage under dark swarm.  Two firebats deal about the same damage to lings.  Four firebats deal about the same damage to hydras and lurkers.  So like...I think you only maybe go for archons over firebats as a response to ultras.  And maybe you could use them as early muta defence, although the zerg would just avoid the archon and hit elsewhere.  It's not nothing, but it wouldn't be much more often than how much protoss uses them vs zerg.

---

Archon 5/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 08:38:31 AM
Dark Archon

PvP: 0/4.  I do wonder if dark archons being a tech option causes us to see less of stuff like carriers, but regardless just haven't seen them in ASL.

PvT: 0/4.  Also haven't seen them in ASL in this matchup.

PvZ: 1/4.  They show up once or twice a season and I post about them when they do.

ZvZ: 3/4.  If you can land a Maelstrom on the enemy mutas, the game probably ends in your favour.  That said, you need to successfully get the tech (300 gas) research maelstrom (100 gas) morph a dark archon (200 gas) and then have a dark archon live for a full minute while it builds up energy without being sniped by lings or mutas.  I think that sounds doable, I think you just turtle with spores and spines for a bit.  But I think you could get broken during that time.

ZvT: 3/4.  This one is all about feedback.  Science vessels that are high on energy die instantly from full health.  Other science vessels just eat a lot of damage and get their energy stripped.  Dark Archons going to zerg would make them vulnerable to irradiate of course, but feedback actually outranges irradiate.  Maelstrom on Bio and mind control on battlecruisers also sounds fine.  Because they can just get irradiated I don't think it's an auto-win, but I do think Dark Archons would get made for science vessel sniping; build up a bunch of energy, then pop them out of a nydus and feedback a bunch of vessels.

ZvP: 2/4.  Sniping high templar is nice, but not as important as science vessels.  Vessels can live forever and continue to accumulate energy.  High templar don't really threaten to do that.  Still, denying storms, or making the protoss storm early from a further distance...I think this sounds like a reasonable pickup.

TvT: 1/4.  Don't think feedback matters.  Don't think maelstrom matters.  But...I will give a nod to mind control.  It's pretty efficient on a battlecruiser.  It's pretty efficient on a fully loaded dropship with either two tanks or four goliaths.  I'm not entirely confident one way or another, but I'll toss this a 1/4.

TvZ: 4/4.  Delete mutas midgame, and I think that just breaks zerg.  Feedback on defilers if they somehow don't instantly die from losing their whole muta flock.

TvP: 2/4.  If you can catch like...five zealots in a maelstrom, arguably the dark archon has paid for itself.  Potential for feedback on high templars too.

---

Dark Archon: 16

Same as arbiter, gets most of its power from adding a powerful spellcaster to races that can't access those right now.  But also, specifically feedback--not a lot of spellcasters are used against protoss, so there aren't a lot of opportunities to show off how good this spell is, but it's pretty good.  Also, a strong anti-muta tool for races that don't have corsair.  Just...a whole lot of "this unit would be good in other races".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 09:17:12 AM
Dark Templar

PvP: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a decent cheese.

PvT: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a decent cheese.

PvZ: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a unit composition you can just go for.  Seen in less than half the ASL PvZ games I'd estimate, but certainly seen often enough.

ZvZ: 0/4.  No.  Overlords detect.

ZvT: 1/4.  Ehh...there is a cheese that seems very ineffective usually where zerg just makes lurkers, runs up to Terran's bunker/wall and burrows, and hopes terran doesn't have enough scans.  DTs probably better at that--potential to split up the DTs so not all of them are caught by the same scan, kill bunkers a bit faster.  In general though, Terran likes to make turrets to fend off mutas, and later on always has science vessels, so there's a very small window for DTs, and anything past a very early cheese lurkers probably better than DTs.

ZvP: 1/4.  So...protoss often has cannons at their front to defend hydra busts.  And when that's not an issue, they often have great scouting information cause corsairs fly through the zerg base.  And while protoss struggles with detection, they can have an observer over their army and it'll probably live--they just struggle to get observers close enough to spot lurkers due to lurker range.  There's maybe some potential for a cheese here where you research overlord drops and drop a DT in the main, but like...ok, that's bricked by making one cannon in the main or one observer, and we're talking a 600 gas investment (300 for DT tech, 200 for overlord drops, 100 for the actual DT).  Still, maybe it's something.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, I mean, pretty good unit in TvT.  Can just walk up to a tank and kill it a lot of the time.  No doubt some potential for cheese, detection usually isn't that early in this matchup, although spider mines can pop up and kill a DT.  Decent unit to drop out of a dropship onto a tank, even if they have detection--very high damage to a sieged tank that can't shoot back.

TvP: 1/4.  Maybe there's some kind of cheese that opens up, but man...it doesn't sound great.  So much gas and infrastructure invested into barracks units, just not really what you want to be doing in this matchup.  And if you delay it and just use DTs later, they'll have observers for mines and cannons in all their bases to stop vulture runbys.  Still, I don't want to completely write it off cause...yeah, I've seen protosses die to DT rushes in PvP, why not TvP if terran had DTs?  Terran can deny scouting, and are less likely to face early cannons than zerg.

TvZ: 1/4.  As always, DTs going to terran would become ranged units with a range of 1, so no they don't become the answer to dark swarm.  I...don't have a lot of faith in DTs for this matchup.  Does terran have a way to snipe all the overlords in all the zerg bases?  Yeah, wraiths.  But if the terran is doing that zerg's going to make spores anyway.  But where I do think DTs have some potential is as defensive units.  Zerg sends ultra ling to harass somewhere, but don't have overlords with them?  DTs clean that up.

---

Dark Templar: 13/36

OK, updating the overall list...

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Marine/Medic: 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36

Dark Templar being below Dark Archon looks very funny, but again, other races seem to want Dark Archon a lot more than protoss.  And interestingly, other races seem to want dark templar less than protoss (other matchups more naturally flowing into detection).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 12, 2023, 10:54:22 PM
Funny thought--Medic restoration can clear irradiate.

On the one hand, maybe I shouldn't count that cause it's an interaction that just never comes up in TvT.  But...on the other hand, I'm counting stuff like feedback on high templar, which I haven't seen in PvP, so sure.

Medic/Marine goes up to 4/4 when sent to zerg against Terran.


Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Marine/Medic: 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 07:38:17 AM
High Templar

So this will be specifically high templar without the archon morph, or at least assuming you don't morph archons until you've gotten storms off.

PvZ: 4/4.  Along with Zealot and Corsair probably in the top 3 most important units for this matchup.

PvT: 3/4.  You don't have to go templar tech, you could go into carriers and never get templar, of course, but templar are quite popular right now.

PvP: 2/4.  A lot of PvPs just end in the midgame before templar can get out.  But if it does go late, templar good.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, storm drops would be used.  Both on SCVs, and on tank lines.  I don't think it's such a better thing to drop that it breaks the matchup, but fairly confident people would build them.

TvP: 2/4.  Protoss units are high HP and mobile so not that vulnerable to storm.  But...storm drops are fine.  And storming carriers would be good.  Not sold on storming zealots and dragoons, but maybe that too.

TvZ: 4/4.  Storm is just such a good counter to dark swarm.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Mutas are a pretty well known counter to high templar--like zergs will build late mutas to snipe high templar.  It's not a 0, because a lategame hive tech scenario could justify storm.  But I think it would be pretty rare.

ZvT: 3/4.  Storm pretty good.  But you could maybe pre-split marines.  And high templar are the same cost as a defiler, and slower and more snipeable.  But still, would be good.  If you can first plague science vessels, and then later storm them, all the 1 health SVs would die, for example.  Storm also pretty good on marines.

ZvP: 1/4.  I'm...not really seeing a great application for high templar here.  Storm drops are tough to pull off cause you need overlord upgrades (and overlords would still be slow and easy to parry).  And there aren't a lot of slow protoss units that tend to stack on each other (no carriers in this matchup).  Not a 0, cause maybe you can catch some clumped units in some specific scenario, and pretty good when used on units that have already been plagued, but that's an ultra-lategame scenario.

---

High Templar: 24/36

Interestingly 1 point ahead of defilers.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 08:00:23 AM
Observer

Well, this is going to be a funny one.

PvP: 2/4.  Yeah, people make a few sometimes.  Obviously the thing to build if you're worried about DTs.

PvT: 3/4.  Pretty much always made, but in small quantities, and you're not completely dead to mines without them.

PvZ: 3/4.  There's games that end before observers, but if the game gets to midgame with lurkers, of course you get them.

ZvZ: 0/4.  No.

ZvT: 0/4.  Terran don't even use cloaked units in this matchup for the most part, and even if they do, overlords are fine.

ZvP: 1/4.  Okay, I can actually think of a niche for these, and it's when specifically protoss is going DT+Sair.  Killing all your overlords with sairs, and spore colonies with DTs.  Yeah, well how they gonna kill your observer?  Gottem.  (They technically can still kill it, by the way, but doing so involves spotting the shimmer, and then putting a corsair on top of the spot where the observer is, and using the splash.  But still...if the observer sits still it's hard to spot).

TvT: 0/4.  There's not that much detection to do.  In terms of map spotting with an invisible unit, that's what widow mines already do.  Maybe there's a world where you want to stick an observer in their main to look at their production.  But like...you have scan, so the impact of one person having access to that play and the other not sounds very not impactful.

TvP: 1/4.  You know what?  A mobile detector that builds out of a factory, meaning you don't need to build a starport and a control tower and a science facility?  Yeah, that probably gets built every once in a while cause it fits nicer into some midgame builds.  (You'd still need to make an observatory of course, but again that's not so wild of an investment).

TvZ: 0/4.  Competing with the best unit in this matchup, so no.

---

Observer: 10/36

This is a pretty extreme case of "unit scores better within its own race, cause other races just have redundancy for that functionality".
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 07:17:01 PM
Probe

PvP: 2/4.  It's a worker, it scouts, it occasionally proxies.

PvT: 3/4.  I'll give probe a little bit of extra weight in this matchup, cause the harass it does to early building structures when scouting, as well as gas stealing, as well as denying terran scouts, as well as being part of the initial zealot attack, are actually pretty substantial.

PvZ: 2/4.  Mostly scouting, sometimes participates in a zealot attack.

TvT: 2/4.  This is probably not much worse than PvT, minus maybe gas stealing potential and being part of initial zealot attacks.  But I gave drone 2/4 here, so being consistent...

TvP: 2/4.  Close enough to same as drone.

TvZ: 2/4.  Close enough to same as drone.

ZvP: 1/4.  Getting the shield regeneration could matter a very small amount

ZvT: 1/4.  Once again, shield regeneration could matter a tiny bit.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Drone scouts are not really used in this matchup.  Using drones to defend early pool rushes is a thing, and I guess...sure, maybe if you're going hatch first you make some probes cause they fight marginally better against an early pool.

---

Probe: 16/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 07:41:02 PM
Shuttle

PvP: 4/4.  It's a core part of reaver shuttle dragoon, which is the unit composition seen basically every game.

PvT: 3/4.  Can you go without shuttles in this matchup?  Or low shuttles?  Shuttles are pretty popular right now, but yes you can go carriers.

PvZ: 2/4.  Shuttles aren't seen every game vs zerg, but shuttle reaver is still a thing that happens from time to time.  Storm drops too.

TvT: 2/4.  I mean...mineral only dropships that are a bit faster once upgraded (although a bit less durable and slower when not upgraded) and can be built out of factories?  Yeah, these would get used.  Dropships require a starport with a control tower (gross).  That said, I'm looking at the kind of stuff I rated 3/4, like carriers and dragoons and zealots and zerglings, and I don't think upgrading from dropships to shuttles reaches quite the level of adding those units to a terran's arsenal.

TvP: 2/4.  Making a dropship and putting vultures in the protosses base is a build.  And it gets way better if you can make a shuttle out of a factory.  But it's a cheese, the protoss can guard against it, and eventually it won't matter.

TvZ: 0/4.  You are fine having a starport with a control tower in this matchup, and don't build a lot of dropships anyway, and would probably prefer the higher speed and durability over unupgraded shuttles.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Yeah, even in lategame hive scenarios I don't really imagine drops mattering.

ZvT: 1/4.  So...what's the use case here?  Zerg does one of those pre-muta lurker busts, except they get a shuttle and drop the lurkers in the main?  Eh...I don't want to completely write that off, that sounds like it has at least some potential.

ZvP: 3/4.  Dropping lurkers into the main of protoss is already a thing that can be done with slow overlords.  Furthermore, hydra busts making tons of cannons at the front?  No problem, elevator into the main.  Does it break the matchup?  Well...I'm imagining shuttles would be lair tech (overlord drops are) and usually hydra busts don't make a lair.  So I don't think we're quite at the level of "protoss can't win", but it is scary for sure.

---

Shuttle: 17/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 08:23:42 PM
That completes the last protoss unit.  Now to be thorough with Terran.

Battlecruiser

TvT: 2/4.  It's not an every map thing.  Some maps battlecruisers aren't ever really made cause the maps don't evenly get split by siege tanks.  But they're good.

TvP: 0/4.

TvZ: 1/4.  Yeah, I mean, they're good in some situations.  But they're really not seen that often at ASL level play.

PvP: 0/4.  I assume just too vulnerable to protoss spells--mind control, stasis, even feedback.  Like I was thinking about giving them 1/4 for Yamato, but nah.

PvT: 2/4.  Are carriers better for this matchup?  Yep.  But...battlecruisers have less build time and come out fully operational.  Carriers pop out with zero interceptors.  Battlecruisers also a little bit cheaper than a carrier with 8 interceptors.  I think maybe the first two things you build out of a starport should maybe be battlecruisers before switching to full carrier.  It's a bit like that time scouts were built before carriers, except actually a good unit.

PvZ: 0/4.  I'm not really feeling it for this matchup.  7 hydras will kill a BC.  That's not necessarily a problem in TvZ, since zerg may not have hydras.  But ZvP, yeah, there will be hydras.

ZvZ: 0/4.  They are cost effective against mutas, and do reasonably well against scourge.  That said, they struggle against a lot of hive tech.  Devourers acid spores are awful for them.  Defiler Plague and dark swarm is bad for them.  Although they can yamato one unit under dark swarm.  I dunno, are lategame zergs really going to switch to mass BCs over mass mutas?  They are so much slower, and get countered harder by enemy hive tech.

ZvT: 0/4.  What did I give carriers in this matchup?  1/4?  Yeah, I think BCs are probably worse.  Once irradiated the carrier basically has to go on an offensive, and the terran should probably retreat from that giving space to the zerg.  But BCs being slower than carriers and having less ground damage...just ehh...makes the vulnerability to irradiate so much worse.

ZvP: 0/4.  I'm going to continue to assume that building capital ships against protoss is bad because it's not really done in any matchup.  Maybe it's bad because of mind control, or maybe it's just that protoss will have dragoons anyway by that point and won't be that scared of BCs.

---

Battlecruiser: 5/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 09:23:33 PM
Dropship

TvT: 4/4.  They are a core part of every TvT that doesn't end early in cheese.

TvP: 2/4.  You can drop vultures in the main.  It's an okay play.

TvZ: 2/4.  There's often a few drops done after thinning out mutas but before hive tech is fully established.

ZvZ: 0/4.

ZvT: 0/4.  I gave the shuttle some credit in this matchup because it wouldn't require a spire.  Presumably dropships would require a spire, and I think that just means that the terran will already be making turrets and defending.

ZvP: 1/4.  Drops that don't require lengthy overlord researches still intrigue me here, though.

PvP: 0/4.  So dropships are a bit tankier and a bit faster out of the building.  But they'd require a stargate which just isn't made or at least not made early in this matchup.

PvT: 0/4.  The one application I can think of is that if you're going carriers, then you can make a dropship out of the stargate while the fleet beacon is building and the stargate would otherwise be sitting inactive.  But...I still don't think this is a great idea, just because this would announce to the terran that you have a stargate--free scouting information for them.

PvZ: 2/4.  Yes.  You often have an idle stargate in this matchup.  Your robo is often overworked--needed for observers, reavers, and shuttles.  Offloading the shuttle production to the stargate would be pretty nice.  Not something you'd do every game, you don't make shuttles every game, and not super high impact, it just gives you a bit more production, but still, it's nice.

---

Dropship: 11/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 09:51:24 PM
Firebat

TvT: 0/4.

TvZ: 3/4.  Yeah, honestly, fine they're seen about as often as hydras in this matchup.

TvP: 1/4.  I've seen the "land barracks behind a pylon walled base and build a firebat play" like...maybe 2-3 times in ASL now?  It's quirky, it's rare, but it happens.

ZvZ: 2/4.  It would break the symmetry of ling walls.  Yeah, early firebats in small numbers are not that great against lings, but if your lings are in front, and firebats are behind, it's great.  Obviously the zerg player without firebats can still win--just get to mutas that's still what matters.  Turtle with spines if you need to, firebats can't break those.  But there's a cheese here, and it's probably similar to something like DT rushing.  Although...ZvZ is a full information matchup, due to the overlord sitting in each base, so that blunts the power of cheeses slightly.

ZvP: 1/4.  Is there a world where firebats get used against zealots?  Eh.  Basically the same damage as zealots, but like 40% of the durability.  Cost only slightly less than a zealot.  Would need to hit two zealots with the AoE to be worth it.  But...hitting two targets sounds doable if zealots are coming out of a narrow choke like the walled-in protoss base, punishing the protoss for moving zealots forward against hydras.  I'm not sure if that's better than just...more hydras, but I'll split the difference between 0/4 and 2/4 and call this 1/4.

ZvT: 0/4.  No, just make lings.

PvP: 0/4.  No.  Just make dragoons.

PvT: 0/4.  Possibly the worst unit you could make against vulture tank.

PvZ: 1/4.  If you can catch zerg not having hydras yet, AND you don't let your firebat get totally exposed away from the zealots where zerglings could surround them, yeah, maybe there could be a decent attack here.  Foiled by sunken colonies of course, but there might be a cheese that works against very specific builds here.

---

Firebat: 8/36

Ahead of a bunch of ultra-lategame stuff, cause "well maybe there's a cheese with these things."
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 10:18:25 PM
Ghost

TvP: 1/4. Ghosts were experimented with for a bit by Royal in ASL, but he seems to have given up on those experiments; there's now nobody making ghosts.  I guess I'll give them a 1, cause I'm giving scouts a 1, though I hesitate to even give them this much credit cause they have been abandoned.

TvT: 0/4.  A long, long time ago it used to be that nukes could come up in this matchup in stalled out games but...I haven't seen those recently.

TvZ: 0/4.  No.

PvP: 0/4.  Maybe lockdown could be okay on an enemy reaver, but that's so much tech, High Templar are easier to tech to.

PvT: 0/4.  No, there's not even really something you want to lockdown, and usually terran is not spread out enough for nukes to be a consideration--too obvious where to scan, and tanks outrange nukes

PvZ: 0/4.  No.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Well, they're all concussive damage, but maybe that's okay?  Zerg has all small units that take full damage from concussive.  Wait, no that's not remotely ok, their stats are worse than hydra stats.  About the same cost (more gas heavy) but 45 HP.  Their damage is slightly better against small units, but only slightly.  Also, they're super deep in the tech tree, like hive tech probably.

ZvT: 0/4.  Is there a world where you want to use lockdown on science vessels?  Ehh...no probably not; plague or scourge probably a better use of your resources most of the time.

ZvP: 0/4.  If ghosts were an earlygame unit, I'd be a little intrigued by them here, but they are not.

---

Ghost: 1/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 10:56:48 PM
Goliath

Oh, an actually good unit.

TvT: 4/4.  Just an absolutely core unit in this matchup.

TvP: 3/4.  You'll have occasional games end early without these, but they almost always get made even when carriers are not on the table.

TvZ: 2/4.  Mech isn't that popular against zerg, but when it is made there tend to be a lot of goliaths.

PvP: 1/4.  I'm very skeptical, but maybe you make one to zone out the enemy shuttle thanks to 8 range.

PvT: 0/4.  Terran just doesn't make enough air units to consider these over goons.

PvZ: 1/4.  Made out of the robo makes me fairly unenthusiastic here.  They are better than dragoons agaisnt mutas and lings, but not hydras which are the bulk of the games.  I'll give goliaths a bit of credit, though, they do make robo openers a bit more safe against muta openers since now your robo can help with antiair.

ZvZ: 3/4.  So...a bit of bookkeeping--goliaths would require two larva to make, so they aren't all that larva efficient.  They'd also be...IDK, probably a lair unit, so not really too much cheese potential.  That said, they're fairly good against both mutas and lings.  Not god tier, mutas can dive on small numbers of goliaths.  Lings can surround a small number of goliaths.  But I do think they would be made reasonably often.

ZvT: 2/4.  Would these be made over hydras?  I'm...not sure actually.  They are worse against units that were hit by HP->1 as hydras attack faster and cost less.  But they are better against marine/medic that haven't been hit by HP->1.  And they are better at killing science vessels--8 range is actually huge here.  But on the other hand, they would become biological and that makes them much better irradiate targets than hydras (hydras cost less, so less loss from being irradiated, and also they can cancel irradiate by morphing into a lurker).  They are also not the pick if the terran has tanks.  My gut says goliaths would sometimes get built, but it just wouldn't be that big of a deal.

ZvP: 2/4.  So...here's a question.  Are they better than hydras against zealots?  It takes 10 hydra shots to kill zealot shields, and then 23 shots to kill the zealot.  So one hydra takes about 21 seconds to kill a zealot.  Goliaths kill a zealot in about 13 seconds.  They are more expensive but...still yes that sounds worth-it.  They are also, as a bonus, better against storms, and better against air (shuttles and corsairs, and notably observer pickoffs).  But the tradeoff is that they are a lot worse against dragoons, so you can't actually go pure goliath.  I don't think it has that big of an impact on the matchup cause they aren't that different from hydras, but less larva efficient and need more tech, hydras might even still be the bulk of the army, but yeah, you'd see some goliaths.

---

Goliath: 18

Goliaths below hydras and marines is a surprise.  But...specifically being a factory unit (and thus a robo unit for protoss and a lair unit for zerg) I think is a big limiting factor.  And some matchups the antiair capability just isn't that important, and yeah, their ground-to-ground capabilities aren't bad but aren't special.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 13, 2023, 11:50:33 PM
Science Vessel

TvT: 0/4.  I can remember these being used once in a game from like 2006 when nukes were being used TvT.  a patrolling science vessel was used for detection.  Offhand I don't remember them being used in any recent TvTs, though I might be misremembering and they were built for defensive matrix.  Something to research later I guess.

TvP: 2/4.  These get made sometimes for EMP.  Specifically to stop arbiters, but it's also just a usable AoE spell and good if it lands on high templar.

TvZ: 4/4.  Matchup defining unit.

ZvZ: 2/4.  I'm going to rate these a bit below some other anti-air options.  Just...how do you protect them from scourge.  in TvZ you have marines, the science vessels can retreat to marines.  In ZvZ...mutas can fend off scourge, but they do so by retreating with moving shot, and the vessel can't retreat as quickly.  You could lag behind the mutas with your vessel, but if you get flanked by scourge that's a hard punish.  The vessel also stands still for a long time when casting--a time to hit with scourge.  It's also more tech--probably not quite hive tech, but science facility would require a spire, for example, and irradiate requires research.  But...still...better than making a queen with ensnare I think.

ZvP: 2/4.  These would be limited by "does the protoss have corsairs left?"  Cause corsairs kill a science vessel faster than they kill a muta.  Nevertheless, irradiating high templar would probably come up some of the time.

ZvT: 2/4.  Sticking an irradiate on a marine at the center of a marine ball probably means 8 dead marines or so.  But...zerg science vessels would become biological and thus die to enemy irradiates without being able to irradiate the terran vessels back.  That said, I think you can still get good value hiding your zerg science vessels a long way away from terran science vessels and just using defence matrix.  Defence matrix soaks up most (but not all) damage from an irradiate.  Like...over the course of an irradiate, the irradiated unit loses 30 HP (instead of 250).  It's not a flawless counter cause you're using a 100 energy spell to not fully counter a 75 energy spell, but it's ok.  Additionally...EMP is a thought.  If you EMP all the enemy science vessels, that's gotta be good right?  I think we'd see these often enough.

PvP: 1/4.  Maybe this is worth considering over high templar.  EMP pretty good.  Defence matrix on a reaver is pretty solid.  It's not really clear if a vessel would like...die ever being a fast air unit that doesn't need to get close.  But...I mean, 1/4 seems about right--probably would be a very rare tech choice, rarer than high templar.  Same score I gave guardians.

PvT: 2/4.  This basically comes down to do I think there's shenanigans with defence matrix.  And...maybe?  I don't think D-matrix on like Zealots is all that exciting, although you might do it cause it's repeated value you can get without putting your vessel at any risk.  But d-matrix on a reaver sounds really spicy.  d-matrix on high templar sounds pretty spicy.  D-matrix on a shuttle could be fairly spicy.  And D-matrix lasts for 56 seconds, you can set all of this up in advance without needing a lot of extra APM.  I think we would see vessels in games that went fairly long--just repeat value that terran can't do a whole lot about.

PvZ: 3/4.  Can protoss protect science vessels from scourge?  Yep, it's called corsairs, or even just cannons.  Is there a potential allin that vessels wouldn't be great against?  Yep, hydra allin.  And hydras in general you would rather make high templar than science vessels until you are stable (science vessels might be better after you are stable cause they can retreat and stay alive, but high templar are much better if your army is about to get wiped out).  Vessels do kind-of invalidate any higher tech than hydras, but I think zerg's ability to cheese, and ability to stay alive in a midgame with just hydras is good enough that I don't really think vessels are an auto-loss.

---

Science Vessel: 18

The surprise, I guess, is that they are not ahead of dark archons by all that much.  But loosely being the third best spellcaster after high templar and defiler is the right general position for them.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2023, 12:33:19 AM
SCV

OK, so gotta think about what would be repairable.  (Other than obviously other workers).  For Protoss I suppose it would be all robo and stargate units.  For zerg, all lair and hive units.  Hmm...would burrowed lurkers be repairable?  Looks like you can't repair mines, so I'm going to go with "no" on that.  Obviously it would be nice to repair burrowed irradiated units, to avoid taking splash damage from the irradiate.  And then all buildings are repairable too, of course.

TvT: 2/4.  Used for scouting and repairing.  Wouldn't be the end of the world if it couldn't be used.

TvP: 3/4.  Used for scouting and repairing.  The really scary question is what do you do about dragoons hitting your bunker, and like...I think you just don't build a bunker, people used to play that way so I don't think it's an auto-loss, but wow it would suck to not have repairing.

TvZ: 3/4.  Scouting still important in this matchup.  Repairing pretty important in the earlygame.  Like...if the zerg tries to bust with zerglings, you repair the wall.  If mutas damage but don't kill a turret, you repair the turret.  I think playing without repair would be very rough actually.  Plus there's some proxy rax bunker rush with SCV pull builds that would be invalidated if you can't use SCVs on offence.

ZvZ: 3/4.  So...lair units are repairable you say?  Yeah, guess what's a lair unit: Mutalisk.  A muta that ate a scourge hit could get repaired to full.  Also, buildings are repairable?  So...repairing sunkens and spores is a thing?  Nifty.  I don't know that the matchup is unwinnable for the zerg without repair, but wow this is a big deal.

ZvT: 3/4.  Retreating damaged mutas and repairing them is just nasty in this matchup.  So is repairing sunkens when terran tries to bust sunkens.  I think terran can potentially stabilize.  In a lategame with science vessels and siege tanks, yeah, repair not such a big deal.  But the midgame would be rough.

ZvP: 2/4.  Hydras would not be repairable.  Lurkers would be, though you'd have to unburrow it.  But zerg kind of does that already--if during a lurker contain a lurker gets stormed, they'll pull that lurker back, and rotate in a high HP lurker.  And yeah, they could repair the lurker in that scenario.  Repairing mutas also probably is not bad.  I don't think repair here is as nice as against terran, where you might just have one very low health muta--usually corsairs spread the damage fairly evenly, and it would take a lot of time to repair everything.  But still, having the option makes muta allins a bit better, and that's nice.

PvP: 1/4.  Dragoons would not be repairable.  Still, you probably would occasionally repair shuttles and reavers.

PvT: 2/4.  Repairing carriers and occasionally repairing reavers, shuttles or buildings is the use case here.  I think the one that impresses me the most, that makes me upgrade this from a 1 to a 2 is repairing cannons while a vulture raiding party is trying to take out a base.  Obviously vultures could manually target repairing SCVs, and sometimes you would do that, but that takes attention, and sometimes vultures do target the cannon just to guarantee the base kill.  Also...I think in this matchup past the earlygame scouting phase you do actually care about having 60 HP workers, just cause it takes 3 hits for a vulture to kill.  You'd keep some probes for building of course.

PvZ: 3/4.  Being able to repair cannons or even just an upgrading forge against a hydra bust would be a game changer.  Being able to repair corsairs would be reasonably nice.  SCV pull against hydras just as a fighting unit would be a lot better than a probe pull.  Repairing observers would occasionally be a thing.  Just...pretty much all of zerg's openers suffer against repair.

---

SCV: 22/36

OK, this is genuinely surprising.  Just...this all being inspired by an artosis video where he puts probes in S-rank.  But man, repair is like...fairly critical for Terran functioning, and really good for other races.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2023, 12:43:01 AM
Valkyrie

TvT: 2/4.  Yeah, you see them occasionally.  Probably slightly less than half of all TvTs, usually fairly late.

TvZ: 2/4.  They have a strong attack timing against muta builds, and are used as a response to muta scourge allins, but skipping them is common too.

TvP: 0/4.

PvP: 0/4.  Worse corsairs which are already not built.

PvZ: 0/4.  Worse corsairs.

PvT: 0/4.  Even if they do go full cheese and make mass wraiths, they're worse corsairs.

ZvZ: 4/4.  There's some vulnerability to scourge, but not too bad to escort these with mutas, and hard to imagine they don't just break the matchup.

ZvP: 2/4.  Yeah, I think they would get made as part of "Ogre Zerg Gamer" where you allin with mutas.  Obviously not a ton of them, but they are more cost efficient than mutas against corsairs (roughly cost even) if you had them in a control group with mutas they would just naturally spread away from the mutas.

ZvT: 1/4.  If you plague a clump of science vessels, you could later make a valkyrie.  It's...a lot worse than the corsair in this role--slower, more expensive when it inevitably dies to irradiate.  But...wider splash.  What did I give corsair?  2?  OK, this gets a 1 then.

---

Valkyrie: 9/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2023, 01:15:37 AM
Wraith

And this is the final unit.

TvT: 3/4.  They are a fairly core unit in this matchup.  The one thing I will note is that eventually people tend to switch off to them.  Switch to dropships or battlecruisers.

TvZ: 1/4.  2 port wraith openers are apparently becoming a somewhat popular opener, although haven't been seen a ton in ASL other than from Leta.  This feels like a rating that could easily go up in the future.

TvP: 2/4.  Wraiths spent a bit of time being mildly in-vogue against protoss.  They've dropped off again, but still totally reasonable to make a wraith against reaver drops.

ZvZ: 3/4.  I don't think they're going to change a losing position into a winning one, but wraiths are kinda nice in this matchup.  Pretty much cost neutral fighting with mutas, but they have more range, so could take potshots at enemy mutas.  Cloak could also matter.  And they murder overlords--they kill stray overlords much better than mutas.  OK that's the good news, the bad news is that you would need something like 2 larva to make a wraith (2.2 is my calculation).  And any wraiths you make obviously means you don't deal as much ground damage.  Still...I think they would get built and I think they would be solid.

ZvT: 0/4.  I just don't see the use case for these.  Mutas way better against turrets, goliaths, marines, SCVs.  Mutas better against plagued scinece vessels.  Best I can think of is either defending dropships, or if you know the terran is going valkyrie allin without a science vessel, maybe you make cloak and try to snipe the valkyrie faster than the terran can scan.  I don't really believe in either of these scenarios.

ZvP: 0/4.  They get erased so hard by corsairs.

PvP: 1/4.  So corsairs are never made in this matchup even when reaver drops are common.  I'll give wraiths the benefit of the doubt, though, they do kill shuttles a bit faster, and can also slowly kill the reaver after it drops out of the shuttle.

PvT: 2/4.  So wraiths would be good in the same scenario scouts were good--to stop a push that doesn't have goliaths yet while you get starports for carriers.  Except, you know, wraiths are a lot better than scouts--come out earlier, much better vs ground, potentially cloak.

PvZ: 2/4.  Yeah, wraiths would be a legit cheese.  Macro zerg is often prepared for corsairs, gathering their overlord near a spore, but not prepared for an early air unit like a scout hitting drones, and wraiths would come out earlier and be better at drone killing.  Also, in terms of sniping overlords, wraiths kill individual overlords better than a corsair.  And the scary scenario where zerg is hydra busting...a wraith is still bad to build, but better than a corsair.  I think you usually open with a wraith, do the scouting, then mass up corsairs if needed.

---

Wraith: 14/36

And that's the last unit so...

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
High Templar: 24/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
SCV: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Marine/Medic: 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Science Vessel: 18/36
Goliath: 18/36
Shuttle: 17/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Probe: 16/36
Wraith: 14/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Dropship: 11/36
Observer: 10/36
Valkyrie: 9/36
Firebat: 8/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Battlecruiser: 5/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36
Ghost: 1/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 14, 2023, 01:24:58 AM
One additional thought about marine/medic: optical flare.

I think specifically ZvP this could be good in a lurker contain--zerg already tends to regularly make scourge to kill observers, and optical flare is a 75 energy spell that basically kills observers (makes them sight range 1 with no detection).  And it's 9 range and there's no risk of scourge being picked off.  One medic is more expensive than one scourge, but can potentially pick off a lot of observers in a contain situation.

Does this increase medic marine in the ZvP matchup?  Mmm...maybe.  They were 2/4 before due to just early marines having some cheese potential--scarier hydra busts.  Maybe this makes them 3/4 cause they continue to have utility in longer games?  I dunno though--this requires an academy and optical flare research, requires building medics with no plan of building units they can heal, and you would need to blind quite a few observers before all of that became more cost-efficient than just plain not getting any of that tech and getting scourge instead.  2/4 probably still fine.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 20, 2023, 06:20:51 AM
Starcraft

ASL Finals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwcdXblqYlc

Nearly every game going to lategame PvZ, which means defilers, reavers, archons.  Soulkey favouring ling lurker over mass hydra.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on October 29, 2023, 05:43:47 AM
Starjeweled

So...I've been doing calculations on Starjeweled units again.  I think I've even posted them in this topic before.  There's a nice table of stats I've added to a wiki I can link people to if anyone is reading this.

But for stuff that doesn't really feel like it belongs on a wiki, I've been messing around with some DPS calculations, and I...have some random thoughts.

The first thought is that HP, and specifically actual literal HP and not "HP relative to cost" is generally a much better measure of what units are good than DPS figures.  Like...muta damage is higher than Banshee damage, but Banshees having 125 HP instead of 100 HP make them usually better, as they survive the 100 damage storm spell.  But the case that really stands out here is zealots, which, on paper, deal more damage to ultralisks than any other unit for their cost, and yet generally aren't even considered cost efficient against ultralisks cause the AoE cleave damage from ultras is too good against them.

One interesting result, however, is that several units are (relative to their cost) fairly similar at damaging cannons.  Zealot, Hydra, Banshee, Immortal, and Ultra are all about equivalent at hitting cannons.  Tank and Roach deal about half the damage of those two, and in practice Muta is also in the same ballpark as roach (their attacks bounce, but they'll never hit two cannons with the glaive bounces).  And then Ghosts and Colossus are very bad at this role (like 13%-20% of the group that is good at hitting cannons).

Another interesting thing to do, since there are often marines on the field soaking up hits but not really doing anything, is look at the time it takes each unit to kill a marine.  The surprising thing to me is that Colossus, if they don't cleave, are actually the second worst at this relative to their cost.  Yeah, they have a huge damage bonus against marines--they deal a whopping 80 damage to them.  But that doesn't matter when marines have 30 HP.  And their slow attack speed really sinks them here.  (Ultras take two hits to kill a marine, but attack almost three times as fast, so while obviously it's quite bad when an ultra gets distracted and attacks a single marine, it's actually not as much of a time waster as when a colossus does it).  Though obviously there is some value to all of the AoE options against marines (Ultras, Colossus) just a surprising result that Ultras are arguably better at marine clearing when their damage bonus is not marines.  For non-cleave units, the ones that take the least time to kill marines relative to their cost by far are Hydras and Zealots, though worth noting Mutas assuming good glaive bounces are also roughly in this group.  The cleave units generally need to hit 5-7 marines to get equal efficiency.  Other low cost units (Ghost/Roach/Banshee) are about half as fast at clearing out marines, although worth noting ghosts can and do snipe marines, so this can make them briefly faster.  Siege units (the ones with bonus damage to buildings) are quite slow at killing marines (siege tank in particular is quite miserable, slower at killing marines relative to its cost than a Colossus that never manages to cleave two marines).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 01, 2023, 09:32:06 PM
Thinking about FFT ban-a-thons again.

First ban probably still Calculator.  Although...I mean, I think there is some argument that "well if you're doing a solo challenge and minimizing grinding that maybe Auto-Potion comes online faster, and maybe it's hard to get Calculator JP solo if you have special classes banned, like if Ramza can't Yell+Accumulate?"

And like...ok, let's analyze this a bit.

How hard is the game for a solo challenge without Ramza ubersquire stuff with Auto Potion but without Mathskill?  Honestly, I don't think it's too bad?  I did a solo challenge once that had all three heavily restricted, and fights with a guest were fairly easy, but fights without a guest...the fact that every archer shot, every geomancy hit, every Ninja using Throw was aiming at my one low level summoner made surviving kinda hard.  Auto Potion probably can fill in that gap just fine, soak some hits just like a guest does when they're in the fight.

The downside I guess, is that Auto-potion can fail.  Every once in a while Auto Potion will fail two or three times in a row, and then you'll get a reset and need to try the level again.  This downside can be averted with brave raising.  However...brave raising is probably more grinding than just learning calculator skills.  So if the argument is "well you have to do brave raising of course" then I think Chemist is already in a losing position here.

Let me just sanity check that claim.  Being able to CT5 in Math Skill takes 400 JP (you start with about 150, so that's like...15 actions or so to get to 400.  15 actions of Praise gains you...somewhere between 8 and 9 brave depending on your MA.  But CT5 doesn't actually save you until like...chapter 3, using math skill early on you actually need to target.  If you need all the math skills, it's 2200 JP.  That is like...82 actions.  With a slow character.  Getting brave to 97 from 74 takes like...about 40 actions.  So actually no: raising brave to 97 is arguably less effort than mastering Calculator in terms of raw actions.  You do need to spread it out over several fights, but like...in every fight where there's a competent guest, you could drop a couple big summons, get the fight under control, and then spam praise on yourself while you let the guest clean things up.  Then you don't even need to do your grinding outside of story fights.

I guess there is an argument for mathskill, and that's that it can take an extra layer of challenge on top of the solo challenge.  Like if you add some kind of stat penalty on top of being a solo challenge, maybe require Ramza to step on a level down trap at level 1 20 times, or maybe require you to be in the mediator class for every story fight, or maybe gameshark away the ability for characters to gain EXP so that all player characters stay at level 1--yeah, Mathskill still going to cruise through that challenge, whereas a summon user with auto-potion...not so much.  Yeah, it's a bit more grinding, but Mathskill is just so much more powerful than anything else when you get it.

And...sure, I think I'm sold by that argument.

1. Calculator
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 01, 2023, 09:49:52 PM
FFT ban-a-thon, second ban

OK, so like class to ban after Calculator...

It's probably still Chemist, but...I do at least want to think about it some.

If we ban summoner instead, what does it look like?  Well, we would have time mages using black magic with Bolt/Bolt 2, until they build up to short charge Meteor.  And they'd have auto-potion, and item in general so like Ether and Hi-Ether for more uses of Meteor.

Yeah...you'd suffer a bit in Chapter 2 due to using Bolt 2 instead of Ramuh, but like...whatever, I think you're in good shape.

And specifically, only Calculator and Summoner banned, I think you could probably still do that as a solo challenge relatively comfortably.  But Calculator+Chemist ban...I think that's a non-trivial solo challenge, at least without substantial grinding.


2. Chemist

So for third ban...

We're sort-of in the territory where you could do...not a solo challenge, but a 1.5 character challenge.  You do a playthrough with a newbie, tell them they'll control one character, and you'll control one character, and let them experiment with any class they want.  This sort-of solves the durability issue that arises when you try to do a solo summoner build playthrough with low grinding.  You'll have a second HP bag, they'll take some hits, and you're good to go.

For a 1.5 character playthrough where most of the cheese is banned...you need to pack the damage.  And specifically you need AoE damage.  I've seen many times on two character playthroughs (both in FFT and LFT) that if you don't have AoE...you just end up getting swarmed.

So...the options for that are Draw Out from Samurai, Summon, or Short Charge Meteor.

And the pick's gotta be Summon right?  Like...arguably the best of the three anyway.  And it's 200 JP instead of 2300 JP (Short Charge + Meteor).

3. Summon
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 01, 2023, 11:36:29 PM
FFT ban-a-thon 4th ban

So...ok, this is definitely one I've been wondering about.  Assuming we're still going into this with a small party, 2 or 3 people, is there a world where the right ban for the 4th ban is not Wizard, and is instead like Time Mage or even Samurai?

And...I think it depends how we want to loosen restrictions.  Like...yeah, if you're still trying to do this with 2 characters, or 1.5 characters, and you are just dealing with the small party size by grinding more, absolutely I think there is an argument for Time Mage ban next.

If, on the other hand, you are dealing with the greater restriction on classes by being stricter about low grinding, and looser on the number of characters, maybe 3 characters with a limitation like "don't even do random encounters, just story fights" I think the answer is probably Wizard.

Ultimately I think the latter style of restriction is the one I've done and seen more, and getting up to a full party or closer to a full party gets things closer to how the game was intended to be played, which matters for stuff like party buffs that are unnaturally less impressive than they should be in a 2 player party, so yeah, that's probably still the way to go.

4. Wizard

OK, so fifth ban....

In the past I've put Squire here for Gained JP Up, as every good build that isn't banned requires JP.

More recently, for the most recent list, I decided that just about every build even physically focused builds were going to set either Time Magic (for haste) or White Magic (for raise) for a long time, and that the first really powerful units you get would not come from JP at all, but from equipment as you steal Agrias and Gafgarion's armour and slap them on a Lancer who gets overtuned spears in chapter 2.  Making one of Time Mage or Priest the next ban.

But what about Lancer?  Is the ban here ever Lancer?

And that's...an interesting question.  Like...what's better in early through mid Chapter 2, a Knight with haste cast on them, a Geomancer with Haste cast on them, or a Lancer?  I think it's Lancer right?

Which means banning Lancer would make the game harder for...part of Chapter 2, at least until you get Ninjas unlocked or learn short charge+meteor or whatever you're going for.  But...simultaneously harder in chapter 1 without whichever of Haste or Raise you're getting rid of, and harder in the latter 60% of the game, when you still want haste and raise, and might also have Meteor or Holy or Teleport or MP Switch too.  Jump is a fine skillset of course, but not going to outshine other lategame skills.

And I mean, honestly, Rainbow Staff and one Wizard Robe show up at Zirekile falls, so like...while being a Time Mage in chapter 1 is going to be a bit rough compared to being in Knight, it's fine in Chapter 2.  And Geomancy starts hitting hard for a little while thanks to Wizard Robe.  And guns for Mediator show up.  These aren't as good as "Lancer in early Chapter 2", but they're...fine.  I think the chapter 2 options are actually looking a bit more robust than the chapter 1 options.

Which means...probably again no changes from the last list, unless I want to switch up Time Mage and Priest here.  Do I?  Ehh...don't think so.  Debates could be had about whether banning Raise hurts more than banning Haste, it probably hurts a little more, sure, but Time Mage has other exciting stuff like Teleport, MP Switch, Short Charge Meteor.

5. Time Mage

And yeah, I mean, at this point probably your whole party slaps on white magic for raise while heading to...IDK, whatever jobs they're heading to.  And this helps in Chapter 1, which still looks rougher than Chapter 2, so it's not Lancer.

6. Priest

OK, 7th position.  Last time I gave this to Squire due to Gained JP Up.  But should it actually go to Lancer, for being this big bailout in Chapter 2 thanks to nutty equips that pull the party out of the dark age of earlygame?  Mmm...I kind of do buy that argument, actually.  What else are you headed towards?  Ninja where...once you get there you aren't going to care about Gained JP Up?  Oracle where gained JP Up is admittedly pretty nice?  Samurai where Gained JP up is mandatory?  Monk where...if gained JP Up is banned you actually don't mind slapping on Equip Armour instead?  Dancer where...like Ninja once you unlock the class you don't mind a lack of Gained JP Up?  Geomancer where...you'd live without Gained JP Up soon enough cause you'd learn Attack Up?

I think the path here is like...two characters go to lancer and carry the party, and the other characters go to...something like Ninja, and take advantage of the fact that the Lancers are carrying the party to gain JP in weak classes like Thief and Archer.  And I think this sounds a bit stronger than trying to send all five characters down "weak now, strong later" pathways, even if those pathways pay off a bit sooner thanks to Gained JP Up.

7. Lancer

So...ok, is it Squire now, or is there a remaining build that would hurt more than hitting Gained JP Up.  It would have to be something that is strong early on, strong without gaining a ton of JP, so like...we're talking Knight and Geomancer basically.  Maybe Oracle deserves a look too--maybe a lot of these physical builds are setting Yin Yang as a ranged option; even one use of Paralyze isn't a joke.  And in Chapter 2 with Wizard Robes and Sticks showing up, of course Oracles start hitting like a truck.  I don't think it can be Ninja--while Gained JP Up isn't used much after unlocking Ninja, pushing back the unlock time of Ninja by 50% hurts that build a lot.

I don't know, none of these are really jumping out to me.

Like...if Oracle is banned, but you have Gained JP Up, ok, whatever big deal, just ignore the magic side of the job tree, have a couple Geomancers hold down the fort while Ninja is speedily unlocked with Gained JP Up.

If Knight is banned...ok so this hurts a bit for about 6 fights, then you unlock Geomancer part way through Chapter 1 and you no longer care.

If Geomancer is banned...I mean, you just use some Knights when you need a bit of help in chapter 1, accept the fact that Knight JP is not great, and then in Chapter 2 you have Oracles with sticks and those can carry you until you unlock stuff like Ninja and Dancer.

If Squire is banned...just every plan is worse cause it doesn't have Gained JP Up, and also doesn't have Move+1 which will also hurt early on for basically all of these builds.

8. Squire

So I mean, with Squire banned, we're looking at low JP investments to make our lives not painful as early as possible, that also hopefully have some long-term relevance, which basically means Oracle, Geomancer, Monk.

Oracle comes online earlier than both.  Yin Yang even with one Yin Yang magic known is probably going to be the secondary skill of choice for a lot of characters given all the other bans.  A lot of remaining classes one of their key payoffs is damage for boss fights, but like...you could also just get Life Drain.  High damage from other classes is mostly required for non boss fights, where maybe one party member dies, you don't have revival and you need to kill all remaining enemies...but lots of different remaining classes are good in that scenario.  Also even one focused Oracle in the party could get Defence Up from spillover for the whole party, and that's pretty good too.

Monk...I do think a significant selling point of Monk is that you can have them in Knight for all of chapter 1, get Equip Armor, move them over to Monk, and then have them learn Monk stuff.  This build path is probably the best of the three in chapter 1, but then just...falls behind for a while cause you're grinding out 500 Knight JP, and then you start grinding out the Monk skills which are all kind-of high JP and you've got a 3 move melee attacker who has more HP than an oracle but hits less hard for most of Chapter 2.  Or I mean, you could equip battle boots instead of power wrist and be 4 move, at the expense of dealing...quite a bit less damage because you'd have 7 PA.  (50 with punches, 40 with wave fists, 30 with earth slash not that you'll have JP for earth slash).  I guess you do that until you learn wave fist, or if you haven't hit 7 base PA yet, but once you do you probably want 3 move, 8 PA for 60 damage wave fist.  They are also, of course, the only remaining revival, even if it's bad and costs a ton of JP.

Geomancer...I think the issue with Geomancer is that it's going fewer places than the other two.  Maybe it has a period of time when it brings the most power as a unit.  Probably in late chapter 1, maybe Chapter 2 too, but it's not much better than Oracle in Chapter 2 if it is.  Maybe lots of builds will want attack up long term--Monk likes it if they don't multiclass out of Monk, Ninjas or Geomancers would certainly use it.  Gunning mediators would use it.  But Geomancy is generally outclassed by Yin Yang if you just want to give your character some relevant range.  Yin Yang is available earlier and it's also kinda just better.

Yeah, probably still Oracle here.

9. Oracle

So...so far the only change seems to be slipping Squire down below Lancer.  Looking back in the topic...yeah, I didn't analyze that one too deeply.  I think the next few bans probably go the same way (next probably Geomancer, for example--remaining good Wizard Robe class for Chapter 2.  Remaining place to take Draw Out if you go that route).  So copying the old list that looks something like...

1. Calculator
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Lancer
8. Squire
9. Oracle
10. Geomancer
11. Knight
12. Ninja
13. Archer
14. Monk
15. Mediator
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Thief
19. Bard
20. Mime

I might want to run back through my notes for some of these--like looking at my current analysis I do see the logic train of Geomancer and Knight above Ninja--they just help more in Chapter 1 and 2, but I'll probably re-read my notes on Archer above Monk cause I'm not quite remembering how I came to that conclusion.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 02, 2023, 03:08:05 AM
So...ok, let's just list out what is left

Monk, Dancer, Bard, Archer, Mediator, Samurai, Thief, Mime

I am certainly thinking about charge guns at this point.  And maybe Monk finally, they still have revival, and now some of the best blitz damage.

Equip Gun Archer with punch art for revive and stigma magic sounds reasonable.  Just building a monk also sounds reasonable, maybe ending up in Archer with Martial Arts secondary, or in Monk with Concentrate.  Arrow Guard and HP Restore both good reactions.

I think it's going to for sure be one of Monk or Archer.  Just the two classes that aren't pathetic in chapter 1, while playing different roles.  (Mediator is pathetic in Chapter 1).

So like...I intuitively feel like this really ought to be Monk.  They're just generically seen as a good class, and Archers are generically seen as a bad class.

The thing that's making me hesitate on just slamming Monk is that like...I'm kind of feeling like Archers probably bring a bit more to Chapter 1, a bit better at handling Sand Rat Cellar, and Monks are really suffering from gear woes in Chapter 2.  But surely the long term must be better for Monk?  And like...yeah I think it is, but Mediator SCC kinda stomps most of the game pretty good once it gets guns, and add charge and shields and arrow guard, and you can slap equip gun on people while they unlock Bard and Dancer and Samurai for whatever you want out of those classes, and man, that really doesn't sound all that bad.  Archer just seems like it flows better into the remaining classes.

I guess Archer is also now the one remaining way to get a shield.  Which matters for like Balk fights, and not too much else.  White robes are also decent for those fights (but those are now only available on Mediator and Samurai, and if you ban Archer, then Mediator drops in value a notable amount).

Let's see...I think Archers are better in Chapter 1 (though not by a lot, I just value the 4-5 range), worse for Zaland/Barius Hill in Chapter 2 (monks only need to get to level 5 for 7 PA, and Power Wrist shows up after Zirekile Falls, bringing that up to 8 PA for 60 damage wave fist, whereas Archers are still looking at 5 WP here, so like 30 damage--longer range and higher HP of course), worse for the next four fights that matter in Chapter 2 cause Romanda Guns are storebought. Chapter 3 I think Archers are ahead until Bracer (even with power sleeve, monk's hitting like 10 PA, so like 90 damage wave fist.  Yeah, give me Mythril Gun over that--64 damage base, and charge+3 brings that to like 88.  With 8 range instead of 3 and no chance to miss).

And then bracers surely put Monks ahead for the last four fights of chapter 3, and then earth clothes as well in chapter 4 for earth healing, and also somewhere around part way through Chapter 3 Monks start having revival for emergencies.

But in terms of how much of the game each class is better, this is a surprisingly even split.

The numbers gap is going to be quite wide in Chapter 4 and late Chapter 3, so that's one argument to break the tie towards Monk.  But Archer routes will still have the range edge and the option of shields and the ignore evade edge (against earth immune enemies only, since earth slash is ITE, but there's lots of earth immune enemies), and the edge in terms of portability (Equip Gun+Charge unlocking bard/dancer/samurai much more comfortably than martial arts+punch art).

I...feel like I'm leaning Archer here?

13. Archer

OK, this is what I wrote out last time for Archer over monk.

Quick note on a typo:

"worse for the next four fights that matter in Chapter 2 cause Romanda Guns are storebought."

I think this should be "better for the next four fights that matter."

Anyway, do I buy all of this logic--do I buy that a 15 damage bowgun is better than a 36 damage punch?  Eh, I can kind of see how I came up with that, like you don't need to get hit by 3 move knights in Sand Rat Cellar, but also...that's over double the damage, and almost certainly preferable for Dorter.

I'm curious what the HP difference is at Sand Rat Cellar actually.

Looks like it should be pretty similar.  Monks have about 10 more HP than Archers at level 1, and Feather Hats provide 16 HP.  So maybe a 6 HP difference in favour of Archers, but also if you're level 2 or 3 that would help Monks more than Archers.  (Loosely Monks gain about 1.5 HP more per level than archers).

Additionally, though, while obviously archers would rather have a longbow, the fact that they're stuck with a 3 WP crossbow does allow them to use a shield, the best available shield being the...escutcheon (10% evasion).  Eh.  I mean, you still wear it, but it's the equivalent of like...5 HP, honestly.

I think I'm going to disagree with my previous self and say that Monk is better before the first longbow comes out.  Certainly better for Dorter where you might need to rush down some wizards.  Maybe worse for Sand Rat Cellar but not by much.

Although...hold on, I should consider charge.  By the time you can have monk unlocked at all, you can also have Charge+3.  (200 Archer JP vs 200 Knight JP).  Charge+3 with a 3 WP crossbow brings the damage up to 24.  That's...a lot less bad.  Now, granted, if you use charge, you are not moving.  You can't use charge on a knight, and also back up and have them not hit you back.  The move command is disabled after using charge.  But...even when kiting as a strategy is not an option, some range is still better than no range.  Maybe you can't avoid getting hit by one Knight, but you don't get hit by all the Knights.  Maybe you wouldn't have an attack, but the range gives you an attack.

That probably does slide archer into still being at least a bit better for basically all of Chapter 1 yes.

Another question I have is...should we maybe be banning Mediator instead?  Even if I think Archer is a little bit better in Chapter 1 (which I do) how much worse is Mediator without Archer?  They can still grab Equip Gun, and then go play around in any class they want, probably Samurai and some Dancer.

So...if Mediator is the ban...what happens?

Well, for one thing, Monks in Chapter 1 would get an easy secondary.  They can probably, without even spending time in Archer, get Charge+2, and then punch for something like 48 (?) instead of 36.

Let's see...looking up the BMG, charge interacts with unarmed punches like this:

Bare Hands: [((PA + K) * Br) / 100] * PA

So...that's interesting, the K modifier is on the brave PA and not the martial arts PA.  Means if you have 6 PA, and 72 brave, Charge+1 does something for you, and Charge+2 does nothing.

Charge+1 with 6 PA should get you 36 -> 45 damage.  Charge+3 with 6 PA should get you 36 -> 54 damage.  OK, interesting.  Weird but interesting.

So...that's a pretty big boost in Chapter 1.  And Archer continues being fairly valuable to Monk later on (probably more vaulable than a Mediator would be to a monk build).  If the Monk needs shields or hats, Archer has those with 110 PA.  Concentrate's maybe somewhat interesting to a monk.  Arrow Guard is maybe somewhat interesting to a monk.

I think you do end up pretty close to a Monk SCC, but like...with Charge, and Concentrate, and Move+2, and a way to get shields and hats if you want them, and that should be very smooth sailing later on (like mid Chapter 3 onwards), while also being substantially better in Chapter 1.

So what's the selling point for banning Mediator over one of the other two here?  I guess it's the period from late Chapter 2 when you have guns, to early Chapter 3 before Power Sleeve and Bracer show up but when you still get Mythril Guns.  And like...maybe also ultra late Chapter 4 your gun users will have gone and gotten something cool out of Samurai, but any of these should be smooth sailing that deep into the run.

OK, yeah, I don't think banning Mediator makes much sense.  Archer and Monk work decent together.

So I think it's ban Archer or ban Monk.

Going over that again...

Archer probably has the edge in Chapter 1.

Monk probably has the edge before guns (early Chapter 2) although might depend a little on the fight.  Zaland Fort City probably a bit more Archer favoured cause you can jump on the wall with longbows, but Barius Hill probably Monk favoured.  So not a strong lean.

Archer should have the edge up until bracers (second half of Chapter 2, much of Chapter 3).

And then I've been assuming Monks pull ahead after that, but I mean, let me actually run some numbers.  A level 18 Monk with Power Sleeve and Bracer has a 133 damage wave fist.  (Will be 168 damage at level 21).  Eh...is 133 really blowing away gun damage?  Mythril Gun with Charge+3 is like 88 damage, but also ignores evade, and is 8 range instead of 3.  Obviously you will hit level 21 for 168 damage, but that'll be like...second half of Chapter 4 maybe?

Also worth noting, the gun user can use Angel Rings or Sprint Shoes instead of Bracer.  Now like...don't get me wrong, the Monk definitely wants a Bracer.  90 damage wave fists...no, don't lose 40% of your damage to equip angel rings.  But it is a nice benefit the gun user gets.

I guess there is another question of just how much is Archer really bringing to the gun user.  What if Archer gets banned, and we just end up going for a gun using build anyway?  How much is actually lost compared to what Monk offers?

How good is Charge for a gunner really?  Well...so I've generally been assuming Charge+3, but up to Charge+5 will happen (104 damage).  But the flip side is that if you are not using charge, you can attack and wait on spot, and you'll get an extra 20 CT from that that you don't get from charge.  So like...you can think of a character not using charge but waiting on spot as dishing out 80 damage per 100 CT instead of 64.  But...104 is still 30% more damage than 80.  88 (Charge+3) is still 10% more damage than 80.  You can't always stay in-sync with enemies if you wait on spot, which means enemies can land big charges or spells or jumps on you.  Also...80 damage per 100 CT sounds nice on paper, but it is more back loaded where turn 1 you are still dealing 64 damage.  And that still comes at the cost of never moving.  I think saying charge is worth 30%-40% more damage is still probably about right, and that's...substantial.

And then also, Archer is a pretty nice class for a gunner to be in.  You get the charge skillset by default, and can set another secondary.  You get shields, hats, etc.

What does Monk offer to a gunner party, by contrast?  Some revival (0 vert, can miss, probably don't learn till chapter 3).  Some status curing (still 0 vert, but AoE and basically can't miss unless you're like worst compatibility--130% hit rate).  Healing which will be available a lot earlier than someone who spends time in Archer then gets 750 mediator JP for equip gun, and then finally goes back to unlock Samurai.  Like...probably talking Chapter 2 vs Chapter 4 on when those healing skills are available.  Some reactions like HP restore, but Arrow Guard on gunners is probably also in the same ballpark of good.

Still...overall no: I think gunners prefer Archer over Monk here.  Would I rather deal 30%-40% more damage, or would I rather have some safety options like a bad revival for longer fights?  I would rather have more damage, just end the fight before people crystallize rather than use 0 vert low hitrate revival.

So...yes, I do think the points when guns are good are also going to be points when you'd rather have Archer in the class list.

Also as maybe an interesting option if you're in chapter 4 and up against a zodiac that really needs to die fast, Gastrifitis Concentrate archer with Charge+3 is like...120 damage at level 18.  Or, I guess, if you equip Twist Headband and Bracer too, then it's 170 damage.  (140 without Charge+3).  To be clear, I think you almost never equip Gastrifitis over a Mythril Gun.  But like...if there's concerns that maybe Archers can't really blitz down...I don't know, Adramelk or something because 168 damage wave fists are so much more damage...ehh...no there are options for shorter range higher damage.  I'm not sure if there's actually a fight where I'd take Gastrifitis over Mythril Gun, though--Adramelk I think I'd rather just spread out.

Anyway, Archer over Monk and Mediator does seem correct.

---

Is Monk still 14th?  Yes, Monk is still 14th.  While Monk and Archer are kinda close in value in Chapter 1, Thief and Mediator are a lot worse in Chapter 1.  So once Archer is banned, Monk is kind of the only thing holding the Chapter 1 and early Chapter 2 together.  Monk basically doubles party effectiveness for Chapter 1 and half of Chapter 2.  And after that...when guns show up...losing Monk still hurts for the rest of the game.  Like...even if you focus on guns after that, you probably get HP Restore from monk, and probably have one or two people pick up Revive.  Also, it's less clear that focusing on guns is definitely the plan--the damage gap widens without charge.  133 wave fist to 88 Charge+3 gun where the 88 ignores evade and is much better range doesn't sound too bad.  133 to 64 on the other hand...now we're talking double the damage.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 02, 2023, 11:10:24 AM
Some other errant thoughts on the low-ish ranks:

Am I too easily writing off Wiznaibus?

So...on the one hand, Wiznaibus in some fights is clearly better than guns, right?  Without a bracer you can deal about 15 damage, with a bracer you can deal about 20 damage, and it'll tick roughly twice per turn in late chapter 3/early chapter 4, which means 30 damage per turn without a bracer, 40 damage per turn with a bracer.  Full all enemy AoE.  There are a number of fights where this is probably better than 64 damage gunshots from Mythril guns.

But...not assassination missions, which are often the harder fights.  Especially not zodiac demons with summons, as they will often be caught charging, and take 96 damage.  And the fights where Wiznaibus could be argued as better than guns, where the goal is kill all enemies, Nameless Dance tends to trump wiznaibus.

And of course, unlocking dancer is a problem, makes for a character that is weak for a long time...unless you use Equip Gun.

One additional note on Nameless Dance--in a weird way I think having access to it as a strong option devaules Monk revive.  The kind of fights that tend to stretch on long enough for revival to be needed are often also the same fights that get flattened by Dance, and specifically Nameless Dance.  Except maybe Altima.

---

OK, next question, how good is Slow Dance on Altima?  Obviously form 2 here.  Assuming a full 4 dancers (The max).

After 8 clockticks she gets her turn, and then slow dance goes off, lowering her from 12 to 10.

After 8 more clockticks slow dance goes off again, she's at about 80 CT, lowering her from 10 to 8.  Then she gets her second turn.

After 8 more clockticks, slow dance goes off again, she'll be at about 40 CT.  Lowering her from 8 to 6. 

After 8 more clockticks, she'll be at about 90 CT.  Slow dance goes off again, lowering her from 6 to 4 CT.  She'll get her third turn

And yeah, she should hit 1 speed before getting a fourth turn, at which point she is easy persuade bait.

So she gets about three turns if no one is disabled this whole time.  How does this compare to I dunno, just shooting her with Mythril Guns over four turns?  If 5 characters take 4 shots with Mythril Guns, that's...1280 damage.  She has over 3000 HP.  So...yes, actually the speed breaking plan is actually fairly reasonable.

---

OK, next question...what about other mediator shenanigans.  With invite or whatever.

Like, I've been dunking on Mediators in Chapter 1, but what if you Invite some monster that doesn't suck.  Is that like...a thing that actually exists without going way higher level than you need to?  Well...maybe not actually...a level 1 red chocobo has like...30 HP, which is low, and a choco meteor that deals 20 damage, which is...fine, but not that exciting.  Choco Ball from a black Chocobo deals 32 damage, but they'll have less HP than a red, and 5 speed.  Bear in mind, for mediator to move up, they'd have to move ahead of like...Monk probably, and so you would want a monster that really carries a level 1 party harder than a monk to the point that you don't mind that you're gaining no JP and levelling a unit that you won't use when guns come out.  I'm...not impressed by Chocobo numbers anyhow.

The other thing I've considered is...I mean, one thing I outlined for Mediators as a possible workaround if grinding is needed is like...inviting a porky, and then poaching chantages in chapter 3.  And I think that's reasonable--Chantage is the common poach, so I mean, you end up resetting a couple times in Chapter 2 searching for the uribo, and then you do a couple randoms in chapter 3 to poach some porkies.

But there is another option, and it's to just go get yourself some elemental guns.  From Germinas peak or whatever.  Might even be faster, IDK.

And there is yet another option that is interesting, and that's to get yourself some Tiamats.  Notably here, triple bracelet will take off half of a Zodiac's health.  So that's an option if you are worried about zodiacs.

Does any of this move Mediator above Monk...?  Ehh...probably not.  Monks are probably still in the region where like...you really don't need to grind you can just play a Monk SCC with extras.  But it probably does cement Mediator over other grind heavy classes like Samurai.  Mediator with a bit of grind can break the game harder than Samurai.

---

Is there a way I am underestimating Bard?  Mmm...if I am it would only be as a Monk spoiler.  "Monk can get healing way earlier than someone who goes Equip Gun first then unlocks Samurai."  "Oh yeah? well what if they take Equip Gun and unlock Bard for Life Song?  What now huh?"  But honestly...this barely moves the needle I think.

---

Is there a world where Dancer should be above Samurai?  If you grind JP hard, unlock Samurai, get all the relevant draw outs, and two hands, and blade grasp, and go grab Move+2 from Thief, I do think it's correct to say you'll get more out of Samurai than Dancer, and specifically, Blade Grasp handles a lot of mook fights, and Samurai brings more damage to the table for big boss fights.

But...that's also very JP expensive.  Dancer, you unlock it, you spend 100 JP on Nameless Dance, and maybe you stick around for 300 JP of stuff, and there you go.

Now, I mean, worth noting, Dancer's unlock requirements are harsher (about 400 JP harsher in fact) and you need to be female, which makes you worse in these physical classes.

So...ok, let's look at single target damage, to say, Velius.  Kiyomori is the equip available here, 12 WP, Samurai should have 8 PA by this point, and probably want sprint shoes.  That's...60 damage.  With Two Hands, 120.  Alternatively, you can draw out for...you will have 4 MA which you can raise to 6 with a Wizard Robe, and then Heaven's Cloud if you know it is 6*14 = 84 damage, but doesn't deal 1.5x damage to a charging Velius.

What does dancer carpet damage look like?  5 PA, 6 MA, 10 WP, leaving the accessory free it's like...70 damage.  Although worth noting to match samurai speed you could go green beret and then bracer, and that would be 80 damage.

OK, what about a male thief punching?  6 PA base.  Higher speed, so can actually justify not wearing sprint shoes probably.  So...slap on all the PA gear, 13 PA.  117 damage.

Um...ok, Thieves can, in practice cause Samurais need to wear sprint shoes, match Samurai two hand damage?  Bro...why the heck would I unlock Samurai which takes ages, and then spend 900 JP getting two hands, when I can get these numbers out of a Thief with zero JP investment?

OK, time out, there is still one remaining argument for Samurai, and that's that it is the last robe wearing class.  This matters for some Balk fights, although Dancer is pretty good against both of those.  But more importantly this matters for the Wiegraf duel because Samurai is the last class that can wear Chameleon Robes.  Some SCCs need to level to near level 50 to beat Wiegraf, and like specifically Thief and Mime jump to mind here.  I think there does remain a non-Samurai out, though, and that out is Bard who can handle the Wiegraf fight by running away and buffing.  Not my preferred strategy but whatever, it gets the job done.

Alright, yeah, I think I'm sold.  It's a bit weird, cause I'm pretty sure Dancer is considered to have the harder SCC than Samurai, and Thieves are a bottom tier SCC, and Bards are generally also considered quite awful as an SCC, but I guess they plug each other's holes here.

16. Dancer

Is 17 Samurai?  Pretty sure yes.  Take whatever you would do with other classes.  Add Blade Grasp and Kiyomori.  It's better now.  I think you have to assume a decent amount of grinding--like if you ban Samurai, the other classes just need a lot of levels anyway, so getting Samurai JP is reasonable.

17. Samurai

And like...ok, previously I put Thief above Bard because "Which SCC is harder?  Nobody remembers?  Uhh...what now?  IDK, Thief unlock sooner I guess?"  But...Bards don't need nearly as many levels to get past Wiegraf, and that is something tangible.

Something else tangible is that unlocking Mimes isn't like...completely off the table, and Bards both have an easier time unlocking Mimes (they can sing in any class and it gets JP fairly quick) and bards also benefit more from unlocking them (Mimes, like Thieves, punch medium hard--complements Bards better than Thieves.  Mimed harps are not bad, because Mimes manage to have better stats than Bards.  And Miming Sing is a known okayish combo).  I think I will move Bard up one as well.

18. Bard


This makes the updated ban sequence...

1. Calculator
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Time Mage
6. Priest
7. Lancer
8. Squire
9. Oracle
10. Geomancer
11. Knight
12. Ninja
13. Archer
14. Monk
15. Mediator
16. Dancer
17. Samurai
18. Bard
19. Thief
20. Mime
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 02, 2023, 08:36:29 PM
Starcraft:

Artosis casting a game in which ghosts are used for nukes against Zerg by pro level players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cwp3bOC5pQ

So the basic idea is this--Zerg needs to go "crazy zerg", where they skip lurkers get carapace upgrades and go straight to ultras, getting a high number of sunken colonies to survive until a critical mass of Ultras with carapace can be made.  Then, with 7-8 sunken colonies at each base, Terran proceeds to drop a nuke on one set of sunkens (instantly killing most of them) and then hopefully from there just winning the game.

I guess this does raise Ghost up a little bit in my ranking of them, to 2/36.

Trying to think if there's any other matchup where this much static defence might be made, though, and...like...maybe protoss defending against a hydra rush might get that many cannons, but by the time Zerg could tech into nukes protoss would have high templar so wouldn't need cannons anymore for defence.  In fact, might even kill their own cannons.

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
High Templar: 24/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
SCV: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Marine/Medic: 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Science Vessel: 18/36
Goliath: 18/36
Shuttle: 17/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Probe: 16/36
Wraith: 14/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Dropship: 11/36
Observer: 10/36
Valkyrie: 9/36
Firebat: 8/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Battlecruiser: 5/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36
Ghost: 2/36
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 03, 2023, 07:55:27 AM
FFT

Thinking about just putting some overtuned percentages on a few things I think in vanilla FFT are overtuned.

I'll try to restrict this to one variable, so e.g. while LFT might nerf stuff along multiple dimensions (like JP cost and MP cost and ctr and effect) I will try to focus on if just the effect was tuned down, with the same JP cost and everything else, where would it be?

---

Bolt 1/Fire 1/Ice 1

Overtuned by 40%

So...I said recently that I think these could go down to 10 mult in LFT.

I think there actually is some logic behind 10 as well.  While comparing spell multipliers to weapon multipliers is typically hard to do, fire/ice/bolt feel built for Chapter 1, and so comparing to say, 4 WP bows kind of makes sense to me.  Typically faith goes something like your faith is 70, enemy faith can be anywhere from 45-74 which averages 59.5.  0.7*0.595 = 0.4165.  So 10*faith here would typically be about 4.

Now, I mean, to be clear, Wizards in chapter 1 would still deal more damage with a bolt 1 than archers would shooting an arrow--they get their gear (thunder rods) early, and have sky high MA.  But like...a Priest with Black Magic secondary is no longer going to deal more damage to one target with bolt than an archer shot in Chapter 1.  (Would be about the same with a 10 mult).

And like...I don't think fire/ice/bolt would be unusable with these values--still more mana efficient, still very JP cheap, still good at picking off a low health enemy.

---

Auto Potion

Overtuned by 400%

I considered just limiting it to Hi Potions, but the problem is that only makes it balanced relative to other endgame skills, it doesn't actually make it balanced for the 400 JP cost (as seen in LFT, Auto Potion with Hi Potions is still a very solid lategame reaction--and it probably would be better in vanilla cause damage is lower in general).

I considered an intermediate amount, like a 50 HP potion.  But that would still make it stand out compared to other earlygame options like weapon guard, counter, absorb used MP, Caution.  Ultimately, I think this was actually probably correctly balanced as an earlygame ability around 30 HP potions, and people just found an exploit.

Math Skilled CT5Holy

Overtuned by 525%

Is an infinite ranged skill that can hit everything just inherently busted?  No, dance with Wiznaibus shows that it is not, the damage just needs to be low enough.

So...ok, in LFT we let people use a 12 mult evadeable move with mathskill, and that is generally considered fineish.  How much do we need to reduce the damage to justify a non-evadeable move?  Well...if a typical enemy is wearing a feather mantle, they'll have 30% magic evade.  12*0.7 = 8.4.  Sure, let's try out a multiplier of 8.

I'm going to assume you get to 12 MA, use MAU, you strengthen with 108 gems, you wear a chameleon robe.  You can reach 12 MA this way with a level 12 Wizard, so you know, not too hard to hit.  This makes the damage 67, and the healing 80 if your party is all 70 faith.  Yeah, I think that's probably in the range of "fine".  It also heals the party, but like...I think the benefit of healing the whole party is largely counteracted by the fact that the whole party needs to wear chameleon robes.  Also, I mean, 70 AoE party healing, that's...not bad, but wouldn't actually be a jaw dropping action on its own.

Now, I mean, there is an interesting mathskill trick where if you use CT5PrayFaith first, and you hit everyone on the field, then you deal 160 with the same setup.  But I mean, maybe that's an issue with CT5PrayFaith IDK.

Anyway, Holy's multiplier is 50.  So 50/8 = 6.25

MathSkilledRevival

overtuned by 840%

OK, so, there's an argument that Phoenix Down in FFT is mildly overtuned.  We certainly nerfed it in a few ways in LFT, and it's still excellent.  But IDK, maybe this is Bolt1 level of overtuned so 40% overtuned, not sure how that would translate into in-game changes.

Phoenix Down that doesn't require throw item to have 4 range is more overtuned.  Again, hard to translate this into numbers, but maybe it lets you have Magic Attack Up or Attack Up, so a 30% buff to your character, sure let's call that 30%.

This is cumulative, so like...we're now looking at like...1.3*1.4 = 1.8, so like 80% overtuned.

A instant version of Raise is more overtuned than that.  Adding like a 100 HP heal onto an already good action...that's better.  But then you do need to worry about faith and internal party compatibility or you might miss, that's a downside.  I think net this is still better, but it's minor, like a 10% boost.

Now 1.1*1.8 is around 2, so like 100% overtuned.

Instant speed raise 2 is better still of course.  Some downside in hitrate, but not much and can still quite easily get to 100% if you are already looking for good internal party compatibility or a high faith party.  Feels like a bit of a bigger buff.  Call this a 20% boost.

Now 2*1.2 = 2.4.  like 140% overtuned.

So...if going from 1 range to 4 range is 30%, how much is going from 4 range to infinite range?  Hmm...I dunno, let's just give it another 30%.

Now 210% overtuned.

And then there is the AoE aspect.  I think AoE res kind of just inherently breaks the game in FFT.  Realistically I think in a lot of fights you're hitting 2 targets, but I have certainly hit three, and I'm going to score this as if it's hitting 3.  So...200% boost.

Now 840% overtuned.

If you don't start with the assumption that Phoenix Down is a little overtuned, divide 9.4/1.4 mathskill revival would instead end up like 570% overtuned.

Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit

Overtuned by 70%

OK, so we can look at what LFT does, but LFT does a lot of things (raises MP cost, raises JP cost, lowers damage, raises ctr).

If all we change is the damage multiplier...what do these need?

Now, I mean, one comparison is to bolt 3, but in fairness bolt 3 is kinda bad.  Like...I think Bolt 3 could have the AoE size of Ramuh, and nobody would be like "stop, that's overpowered, you can't do that."

So...first issue with bolt 3 is that it's evadeable.  If we assume 30% magic evade again (feather mantle, or more minor mantle and a shield) 24*0.7 = 16.8.

But also, Shiva/Ramuh/Ifrit are 4 CTR and Bolt 3 is 7 CTR.  You can actually make these line up just fine by using Short Charge with Bolt 3, and magic attack up with Ramuh.  That said...I don't want to count this CTR gap as a full 30% damage gap.  You can still use Magic Attack Up with Bolt 3, 7 ctr is useable.  Call this 20%.

So...we end up with a damage multiplier of 14, or an overtuned amount of about 70%.

Teleport

Overtuned by 50%

So Teleport's about the same JP cost as Move+2.  Let's just accept Move+2 as correctly tuned--I realize it was nerfed quite a bit in LFT but that was to try to get people to care about movement abilities like Jump+3 and Move on Lava and Move HP Up.  Those are just a lost cause in vanilla so whatever.  And...in Vanilla FFT, Move+2 is...fine, I learn it occasionally, I don't ultra prioritize it, probably around balanced.

Anyway, Teleport is about the same cost as Move+2, and in terms of what it does it's probably about the equivalent payoff of Move+3, on a sort of medium difficulty setting.  Which would make it about 50% overtuned.

OK, I should explain what I mean by a "medium difficulty setting" weighing the value of Teleport can be a little strange, cause on extreme challenges like SSCCs, Teleport is like Move+5 levels of value.  But people who plan to make the perfect unbeatable lategame party with a 100% winrate, I've seen value it below Move+2--if they eliminate all risks, then they never make a risky teleport.  "Medium difficulty setting" just means you've got a real chance to lose, so a reason to gamble with teleport's fail chance, but also your chance to lose isn't -that- high, you still expect to win more often than you lose, you're not going to reset 10 times to get the perfect teleport sequence.

Under such circumstances, Teleport's raw movement ability if you have some risk tolerance is maybe Move+2ish maybe Move+1.5ish, but then it also goes through walls, goes through enemies, ignores height, ignores speed reduction terrain like deep water.  Basically all the benefits of Fly, but also with added movement tacked on (Fly makes your movement very high quality, but it's spoiled by just not moving very many panels; Teleport fixes this).

I guess I should justify "maybe Move+2ish maybe Move+1.5ish".  So like...one of the classic calculations, which I think is wrong, is people just imagine a long racetrack, 1000 tile map, and figure out that a 3 move character who wanted to get to the end of that track as fast as possible should teleport 6 or 7 panels (for a 70% or 60% chance every turn) and move 4.2 panels per turn on average.  And then they declare the net value of risky teleports to be Move+1.2 (cause 4.2 is 1.2 higher than 3).  Here's why I don't fully buy into that number--FFT, if you've got a crisis where you need to get into position or lose--like need to revive an ally before they hit 0, or need to kill a key enemy.  If you've got to get there in one turn, or lose, and it's a random distance away, Teleport is more like Move+4.5.  If you've got to get there in two turns, Teleport is like Move+3.  If you've got to get there in three turns, Teleport is like Move+1.7 (realistically a fair bit higher than that if you've got a huge map, but I capped the number of panels you need to travel at 15 cause maps aren't usually that big).  Teleport is not great at long-distance running, but it's pretty good at sprinting to a fixed destination, which is probably a measure that more closely matches in-game scenarios.

But the flip side of that is while Teleport is quite good at going to a destination, it's not great at fleeing from a destination.  If there's a summon locked on, and you want to not stand in the summon, you should basically always use a 100% teleport, and then you're getting Move+0 out of Teleport.  So that's worth factoring in too.

Another interesting application to Teleport is when other random elements of FFT mix in.  Like if there's an enemy knight, and you want to attack the knight from the back to avoid hitting the shield, very often it's worth it to teleport additional panels, cause the added Teleport fail chance is less than the shield block rate.  Like...a 100% teleport to hit them from the front or an 80% teleport to hit them from the back, you take the 80% teleport.  Or, let's say there's a Knight that a Move+2 character can just barely reach, and have a 60% chance to hit through a crystal shield.  The teleport character could do an 80% teleport to get to the same spot...or they could do a 60% teleport to get to the back.  Ending up with the same overall odds to hit as the Move+2 character.  Or, potentially, better--if the Move+2 character is one square away from reaching the back, so they're stuck with a 60% chance to hit, meaning the teleport character could reach the side with a 90% teleport, then they can hit the back with a 70% teleport, actually ending up with a higher effective chance of hitting.

FFT also often has dead zones.  Like...not moving might be fine, you stay with your party and out of range of most enemies.  Teleporting onto a roof to kill an archer might be excellent.  But standing in the middle might be death.  Classic case for a long range teleport attempt.

Anyway, all of that has me kneejerk risky teleports as closer to Move+2 than Move+1.2 in value.  (And the value of Fly is Move+1ish or a bit better especially with the added movement).  Which makes teleport roughly Move+3ish in value.

Mathskilled deadly status

Overtuned by 400%

So I was looking through Calculator SSCC logs recently, and being a solo challenge with calculator stats, often damage was just not enough to shut down a fight.  But status often was.  Three that stood out here--Frog and Petrify, which have the same hit rate (120).  And also Sleep, which has a monster hit rate (170).  And sometimes Paralyze (185 hitrate) because of Thief Hats.

So I think the comparison to make here is probably Nameless Dance.  Nameless Dance has a 50% chance to hit, and 50% chance of being a goodish status (frog, sleep, confusion, stop).  But it's also 10 CTR and not instant, and that's a big deal.  Also, Calculator can wait on spot for CT, but Nameless Dance being 10 ctr often just makes that not even an option.  Also, like...in a non-challenge setting you can just go on the fastest class, like an H-Bag Ninja, get hasted and really spam these statuses--not an option for Nameless Dance.  Also, Nameless dance is like...pretty solid already.

I think probably a 1/8 chance per target of debilitating status is probably fair-ish here.  Half that of Nameless Dance, but you can also spam this about twice as often as namless dance on a hasted character that waits in place.

Now, ok, that's what the hitrate should be.  What's the actual hitrate?  Mmm...like 76% for sleep?  53% if they have feather mantles.  Like 55% for Frog or Petrify, 38% against feather mantles.  Worth noting Frog is like this giga highroll on Nameless Dance, so being able to pick it (or the sometimes better Petrify) is pretty eyebrow raising.

Anyway, 1/8 chance is 12.5%.  I guess the Sleep hitrate is probably the one to look at, probably more comparable to non-highroll outcome of nameless dance.  Averaging the mantle and non-mantle hitrates, that's like 64%.  Which is about 5x higher than 12.5%.  So...400% overtuned.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 03, 2023, 09:29:23 AM
FFT.

So...thinking about just where Mathskill is on the overtuned scale...and specifically thinking that looking at individual aspects of it one at a time might be underselling how good the versatility is.

If there was an "all magic" skillset that just had all the calculable spells but you cast them with mana and cast time, and all the spells became singletarget, it would be quite good, but maybe not overpowered.  I mean, outright better than white magic right cause all relevant white magic is calculable.  But it would be missing a couple of the greatest hits, like Life Drain and Meteor, so like there's situations when I'd set Yin Yang or set a big AoE spell (Meteor or a summon) over an "All Magic" skillset.  Or when I'd set something else to get the AoE back (like Haste).  But still...certainly an exciting option.

What if just...all of it costs no mana?

OK, now it's a bit nutty right?  Like...specifically no mana Holy spam even with charge time, even singletarget, sounds fairly solid.  No mana ranged revival--if you're just looking for a revival secondary, now this is probably the best one.  Like...sometimes currently on a Summoner or on a Meteor focused Time Mage I might set item over white magic cause it costs no MP.  But I'd definitely set this All Magic over both other revival options.  And no-mana Holy when you're out of MP would be very strong...like probably on the level of Draw Out strong.  A bit more damage, but singletarget and still has cast times.  I don't know that I would necessarily rate it above Summon, but the no MP cost makes it highly synergistic.  Already about as good as vanilla summon.

What if it also all had no charge times on top of no cast time?

The revival is now way, way too good, like outright uncomfortably better than item.  Instant speed no MP holy I feel fairly confident in calling better than Draw Out, even as a singletarget skill.  All the status moves like Sleep become way better cause they can interrupt charging enemies.  Yeah, probably runaway best skillset in the game already.

Still two more things to add, and possibly the two most important (infinite range, full battlefield AoE).

Um...yeah, it is hard to put into numbers just how far past the balance line this skillset is as a cohesive whole.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 03, 2023, 05:51:06 PM
FFT

So actually, I started wondering since a lot of mathskill overtuned numbers were about 6x as good as they should be, if Q values were just divided by 6 when cast through math skill, would that be alright?  It's a question worth thinking about, cause something so formulaic as "divide by 6" is something that could probably be dropped right into a balance hack.

Holy Q value divided by 6 gets a value of 8.  If my above numbers hold this is fine-ish.

Raise Q value divided by 6 gets 30.  MA would raise that to 40.  Faith would translate that into about a 20% hitrate.  Yeah...not remotely concerned about that.  Low likelyhood revival in FFT, even if it's AoE and instant, is probably not a balance concern.

Sleep, likewise, not overly concerned.

So here's the one sketchy one.  Frog/Petrify, Q value gets reduced to 20.  MA would raise that to 30.  Faith would translate that to about a 12% hitrate.  If there's a feather mantle that lowers to about 8% hitrate.  12.5% hitrate was my rough target for "this would be fine if landing status roughly equivalent to Nameless Dance status".  But always landing frog or petrify as your status is obviously quite a bit better.  To be clear, this is not necessarily the fault of the divide by 6 concept, more a fault of the formula which takes the value 20 and adds MA.

Still...I mean, maybe that's ok?  As demonstrated by some of the above thought exercises, one of the valuable places to put a toned down version of this skillset is on an MP using caster, who plans to drop some summons or meteors first, and then fall back on a no-MP no charge time skillset.  A 12% chance to Frog or Petrify is high power only if used right from turn 1 when all the enemies are alive.  But that also happens to be when you would like to be casting spells like summons and meteors.  It's not going to be great on turn 3 when you've already dropped two meteors and are now out of MP but there's three enemies left.

And obviously there's no real concerns about stuff like Pray Faith with a 17% hitrate.

So...maybe dividing all the Q values by 6 when cast through mathskill actually does work out to a balanced-ish skillset.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 03, 2023, 08:57:42 PM
Starcraft Brood War

So...here's a game where Queens and Guardians were used lategame vs Protoss, and Protoss made dark archons to feedback the queens:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1G0Z2BgtCgQ
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on November 11, 2023, 04:07:54 PM
Just posting to say I am enjoying the FFT overtunedness analysis.

I'd say Phoenix Down is overtuned, though not sure how to quantify how much. You could probably use Revive as a comparative baseline though there's an argument that Revive is undertuned of course.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on November 11, 2023, 06:09:06 PM
Hmmm, I feel like revive would probably be acceptably-tuned as a stand-alone ability if it was like...90 JP instead of 500 JP.

Like...yeah: if that was the case (and also Phoenix Down wasn't still so obviously better than it) you might set punch art as a secondary with just revive every once in a while, but not like...to the exclusion of using other skillsets.  If you don't have martial arts set mind you, revive might end up being a 75% hitrate (and zero vert, of course) or even as low as 72% on a mage.  So...that's pretty inaccurate.  And there's still the issue of 0 vert.

But...still, it's a degree of insurance for longer fights.  It doesn't cost MP, so like a build that burns MP very fast like a summoner or a short charge meteor spamming time mage might prefer to set punch art over white magic for raise.

I do think even small reductions in hitrate represent a substantial power level downgrade for revival, of course.  (Part of why mathskill revival, despite being on paper the most overtuned aspect of mathskill, is kinda just no longer a concern power-level wise if you multiply the Q value by 1/6).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on November 12, 2023, 04:58:52 AM
The topic of Fire Emblem drafts came up in Discord awhile back, and specifically FE3H.  One issue with drafts is that they really mostly make sense "competitively", i.e., if you're trying to measure against something.  You get weird results if one person is drafting their faves and someone else is playing to win.  Furthermore, for FE Three Houses in particular, the game is friggin' long.  So it's a little awkward - you can do a short draft, but then it's probably a Normal mode warp-a-thon.  But if you do Hard or Maddening and ban Warp, you have something that takes so long that you fully expect some Did Not Finishes mixed in from real life / boredom / etc.

Anyway.  The REAL fun is the drafting part, IMO.  Playing it out is just a long formality.  So…  why not draft against myself as a sample?  There were two funny YouTube videos from someone who is clearly far more of a FE6 fanatic than most people on the planet where he drafted against himself and also actually ran the game 4 times:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SIO6xqhPNA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhwWMSdV9sE 

So…  why not draft 3H against myself?  Except skipping the actually playing part.  Maybe.

There's a lot of 3H draft rulesets out there you can find (and also a lot of seemingly abandoned drafts).  In general, I'm assuming some sort of soft LTC is the criteria (rather than real-time), combined with…  well, not quite Ironman, but an expectation that you are not doing dopey LTC things like resetting until you get that turn 1 crit.  If you're Divine Pulsing due to a mistake, whatever, but DP'ing as a core strategy for crit / key dodge farming is no bueno. 

Lords/Warp/Stride all make the game go faster and thus be more about feeding XP to boss-slayers, since everyone else isn't getting tons of combat.  As such, I'm gonna restrict this as much as possible to make it closer to normal play rather than specialized LTC stratz.  I think the draft ends up the most interesting on Silver Snow with Warp / Stride banned.  Silver Snow means no Lord hard-carry (without having to arbitrarily ban Lords) which makes a lot of the draft pointless since you'd be building a carry Lord no matter what (although you still have Byleth in SS, of course).  If Warp isn't banned, you end up with a massive rush on Linhardt / Lysithea and a consolation prize of Manuela which is weird.  Stride is most defensible, but you can still get pretty far with flyers and a Dancer even without it.  There's still some wackiness here - Vantage / 100 Crit / Retribution strategies start looking pretty good, most notably - but I think this is reasonably close to "normal" play.

One weird rule I saw in two drafts posted on serenes which doesn't appear to be very common, but I liked, is "Paralogues are free up to 10 turns / One auxiliary/quest battle per month is free up to 10 turns" (see https://forums.serenesforest.net/index.php?/topic/96042-fe16-azure-moon-draft-every-last-one-of-them/ ).  Basically it means that characters' Paralogues are actually relevant rather than just skipping almost all of them (maybe you still do the one-roundable ones like Ignatz / Raphael).  I'd also assume that for White Clouds paralogues where you've drafted half of the pair but have access to the Paralogue, you only get the benefit of the part you drafted (e.g. Caduceus vs. Spear of Assal if you only drafted one of Seteth / Flayn and do An Ocean View).  I might be a bit harsher on this than 10 turns…  maybe something like 6 turns are free, turns 7-17 are at half-cost (i.e. a 10-turn clear costs 4/2 = 2 turns), and any turns after that cost full price.  But whatever, point is, doing the Paralogues can now make sense (especially for Maddening).

Finally, one last point.  Silver Snow Reunion at Dawn is dumb, especially on Maddening.  I don't like having to obligate people to have a Byleth build that can solo-survive.  While one solution is simply to have a 3 person draft rather than a 4 person draft, I went with the Black Eagles all having two entries, meaning two separate players can draft 'em.  Should make the Eagles a little more viable and has the nice aspect of making the early game less rocky too.

Per notes on other Silver Snow drafts, Edelgard / Hubert are free, Prologue is free, C1 is "pick one character to be free", and C13 Seteth is free.

Anyway, my self-draft, along with reasoning.  I'm creatively calling our drafters Player 1, 2, 3, and 4, or P1/P2/P3/P4 for short, with P1 drafting first.

--
P1: Petra
P2: Petra
P3: Dorothea
P4: Dorothea, Ferdinand
P3: Ferdinand

First things first: making Reunion at Dawn reasonable.  If you don't draft for this early then it's your own fault IMO.  Plus, getting some Eagles will speed up C2 when non-Wolves recruitment isn't really possible yet.  The left-side joinees in SS Reunion at Dawn are Petra, Dorothea, and Caspar.  Petra is the obvious power pick (in a turn count draft, you're probably making her a Wyvern, act shocked), with Dorothea your next best option.  This will ensure you at least have 3 capable units at the start in Byleth / Seteth / First Pick.

The next option for Players 4 & 3 in snake order is the secondary pick.  Now, for Frue LTC strats, I know that Bernie gets some hype, because you can do some goofy Pass + Pegasus Knight + getting her low + huge Vengeance hits.  But, per above, I'm trying to go for more reliable strats.  Ferdinand is an Eagle who'll be around for C1/C2 and isn't that much worse a carry than Petra who'll make a nice dodgetanky Wyvern who can still KO the boss.  I think he's safer than a Bernie pick.

--
P2: Constance
P1: Yuri, Hapi
P2: Lorenz

The Wolves join really fast (can speed up C2) and have some amazing loot in their Paralogues, which per above are doable without tanking the turn count (although.. Yuri & Constance's doesn't mess around!).  Constance gets you Nuvelle Fliers and, importantly for P2 (which doesn't have Dorothea), the possibility of late-game Bolting sniping of bosses.  With Warp / Stride banned, "double dance Dorothea / Constance to smack a boss twice with long-range magic" becomes one of the main ways to speed some maps up.

P1 can take Yuri & Hapi.  Yuri offers the mighty Fetters of Dromi, which is good for all the usual reasons, plus.. probably ending up a Sniper in an LTC scenario, honestly.  Not worth trying to slog through skill ranks for Mortal Savant or something.  Hapi's just one of the strongest remaining mages who can offer Physic support and do goofy monster games, who also offers an incredibly good battalion in her Paralogue in Timotheos Magi Corps.

Having taken a powerful but frail mage in Constance, P2 can snipe Lorenz.  Not for him, of course, but extra range on boss Bolting snipes or just in general from Thrysus is a thing.

--
P3: Ingrid
P4: Shamir, Sylvain
P3: Leonie
P2: Felix
P1: Flayn, Balthus

P3..  definitely getting debatable at this point, but I'm a fan of Ingrid.  One, she has good out-of-house growths in enemy Pegasus Knight and a reasonable training scheme, so you can grab her later without needing to level her.  Two, you get her excellent Galatea battalion from her Paralogue now.

P4 - well one of the drafts banned sniping the DK in C6 from outside his room, which is a dominating thing a Shamir pick can do.  The "psuedo-Ironman" ruleset suggests that this isn't reliable, but she's still solid anyway as a Sniper ready to go with little effort.  Sylvain is another strong pickup - can either be in C2 for fast training, or in C6 for Cavalier growths.  Can switch over to a mage-y build if the rest of the draft requires it, too.

For P3, Leonie's a still outstanding power pick on just good-stats grounds, and also can come with enemy Cavalier growths for extra tankiness.  For P2, Felix is notably worse out of house due to his Sword / Fist training regime, but you can just make an effort to recruit him quickly.  Player 1 already has Hapi, and Lorenz is already taken, so Flayn suddenly becomes more interesting so as to grab Caduceus to set up long-rang magical sniping with.  Also grab Balthus as another instant recruit who can maybe be Rescue'd back by Flayn if he ends up going Grappler?  Who knows.  P1's already drafted a bunch of Wolves, too, so hey, more Support bonuses.

--
P2: Linhardt
P3: Linhardt   
P4: Marianne   Seteth

P2 doesn't have a dedicated Physic healer yet, and there's a lot of picks from now until their next pick, so taking Linhardt seems respectful.  P3 has Dorothea, but grabbin Lin would let her build more offensively rather than being on Physic duty, so yeah.  Even without Warp, Linhardt still has a role.  Player 4 grabs Marianne on similar logic - in an LTC-ish situation with an out-of-house recruitment, she's probably on Bishop duty, although you could maybe still make her a Valkyrie or something if recruited quickly enough.  Seteth, meanwhile, is a safe pre-leveled pick in an LTC, and also can now participate in C12 some to have a few extra levels for C13 I guess?

--
P3: Raphael
P2: Lysithea
P1: Mercedes, Caspar
P2: Bernadetta
P3: Bernadetta
P4: Caspar, Hanneman

Is SF crazy, picking Raph that early?  Well…  maybe, but I'm more thinking that he has a very short Paralogue whose reward is a pretty good battalion.  And he can uh punch stuff still, sure.  Lysithea is nerfed with no Warp and out-of-house recruitment and a worthless Paralogue but let's not get too crazy, she's still a fine pick.  Strictly speaking, P1 doesn't need Mercedes since they already have Flayn, but it's not like Mercedes is terrible in general, and the Mercedes / Caspar combo is still around to maybe grab a Rafail Gem to make the final boss more reliable.  Unclear if this is really worthwhile in an LTC situation as that Paralogue is scary to do fast, but eh.  Plus, Caspar also helps at Reunion at Dawn.  Players 2 & 3 pick up a redundant Sniper in Bernadetta and another way to make C1/C2/C3 easier.  P4 shrugs and grabs Caspar for the easier Reunion at Dawn, and also Hanneman for more boss Meteor sniping fun to go with Dorothea.

--
P3: Alois
P2: Ignatz
P1: Ashe, Annette
P2: Catherine
P3: Manuela
P4: Hilda
Not picked: Cyril, Anna

Filler picks.  Reminder goes here that Catherine, Hilda, and Cyril are worse than usual due to greatly delayed join time, and Annette is worse than usual due to not having access to her Paralogue.  (And of course Manuela is worse due to Warp being banned, although P4 would have liked to wheel her so she could increase Hanneman's damage - but 'twas not to be.)

Overall draft:

Petra     Yuri       Hapi     Flayn   Balthus   Mercedes  Caspar      Ashe     Annette
Petra     Constance  Lorenz   Felix   Linhardt  Lysithea  Bernadetta  Ignatz   Catherine
Dorothea  Ferdinand  Ingrid   Leonie  Linhardt  Raphael   Bernadetta  Alois    Manuela
Dorothea  Ferdinand  Shamir   Sylvain Marianne  Seteth    Caspar      Hanneman Hilda

Nobody: Cyril, Anna                        


Looking at the overall draft...  hmm, I think they end up reasonably even.  P1 notably lacks a source of Meteor or Bolting, but does have Fetters of Dromi + Petra + Caduceus Hapi.

I suspect that for LTC conditions, I probably undervalued building some sort of Vantage / Retribution tank (because it's not a strategy I use casually).  Not Azure Moon so no Dimitri to do it, but I suspect it's a strategy that if you set up does pay off in finishing rout maps faster.  Felix can do it for P2 and Seteth for P4, and maybe a dopey Balthus build for P1?  P3 kinda doesn't have a good candidate, though I guess RAPHAEL could maybe work.

Anyway, that was my fun theorycraft for the day.  (Actually I did this two weeks ago, but didn't want to just dump some picks, so wrote up some thought processes / explanation.)  No idea how it'd go in a real draft or if I actually tried to run one of these squads-  maybe if I run SS, I'll roll a d4 and try one of these groups to see how it goes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on November 13, 2023, 12:13:33 AM
Neat idea! Some thoughts:

-With Warp banned but LTC the goal, Rescue skyrockets in value (it's... about 50-75% of Warp in terms of distance it allows, typically, assuming you go Dark Flier which well of course you do). I think Constance should be taken earlier. Like... if we're allowing full use of Byleth for all players, Constance should quite possibly be the first pick? P1 gets screwed over at Reunion at Dawn this way buuut you can build a super Byleth if that's not banned. If you try to avoid Byleth hardcarry (e.g. ban Byleth from killing bosses or something) then yeah Dorothea/Petra offer too much value, but I don't think Constance should be taken later than fifth even then, certainly before Ferdinand. Flayn should go sooner too, especially since she's part of a package deal with Caduceus.

-Alternatively you could also ban Rescue too. (The thread you linked might have but it instead banned DLC, and Rescue without DLC classes is way, way less potent.)

-Wrath setups are indeed cool for Rout maps, but... there actually isn't a non-paralogue Rout map post-timeskip, with the sole exception of Chapter 14, which is a bit of a tricky map to do enemy phase setups for (still a bit early for Wrath, and tricky to get a battalion down low enough for Battalion Wrath... gotta do it in Chapter 13, gross). Seteth/Alois as Heroes can thread the needle to set up both Vantage and Battalion Wrath at once, but their mobility is just so awful on 14, so much forest reducing Hero to as little as 2 move. Petra's Battalion Wrath Alert Stance+ build is probably the best method, for the two players who have her.

-Regarding Manuela as a Hanneman adjutant, note that she has the same effect on Dorothea too.

-I also do like the idea of "if you draft a character, you get X turns of their paralogue for free" (for a given value of X, 10 is pretty generous but works I suppose). I don't like extending this to aux fights, except maaaybe the merchant quest ones (and the post-timeskip one should be, like, 3 turns IMO). Other aux fights are just blatant grinding and I see no reason to give free turns there but penalize turns in story fights. That's just me though.

-If you don't allow the player to benefit from undrafted units in any way, Sylvain goes up in value compared to where you have him, I think. Knightkneeler Lance of Ruin from a Cavalier is one of the quickest reliable ways to end Chapter 6 (and is useful in other places too).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: Dark Holy Elf on November 30, 2023, 04:30:26 AM
So on another forum I was on the subject of spells in FE3H came up and I made the offhand comment that if I were to rank all the offensive spells in the game in usefulness, Aura would probably be at the bottom. Which got my brain thinking: what if I did rank all the game's attack spells?

Of course, such a ranking depends on your criteria, seeing as spells have different availability. Here are the principles I adopted:

-I'm not rating the spells based on who gets them: e.g. I won't say "Miasma is better than Wind because Lysithea is a better mage than anyone who learns Wind", even though it means that I likely actually use Miasma more than Wind.
-I am considering spells at their most common rank for accession. In the case of a tie (which applies to Luna at C/B and Dark Spikes at B/A), I'll pretend they're learned at their midpoint.
-I am rating spells based on how much I like to see them on a unit's spell list.

The last part is vague, but I realized a method which gave results I was happy with: when comparing two spells (call them #1 and #2), I would compare the following:
-Considering units who learn spell #1 but not #2, would I trade #1 for #2?
-Vice versa: would I trade spell #2 for #1?
-Considering units who learn BOTH spells, which one would I rather drop from their list, if forced to?
-Finally, considering units who learn neither spell, which one would I rather add to the list? This last one is probably the case I considered the least.

Note that for all these thought experiments, I considered spells learned at their average rank, as per above. When considering Thoron vs. Bolting, I'm talking about "learning Thoron at C" versus "learning Bolting at A".

As an addendum to the thought experiments, I only considered swaps that were actually possible according to the conventions the game has for when spells are learned. In particular:

-Everyone gets one of Fire, Thunder, Wind, Blizzard, or Miasma at D reason. So when considering a character "losing" a D rank spell in the experiments above, I would assume they still end up with a D rank spell, just the worst one (spoilers: the worst one is Blizzard). You can argue this means I've underrated D rank spells as a whole.
-Nobody learns two spells at the same time, so when considering a character getting a new spell at a certain rank, I'd implicitly either push their old spell at that rank back by half a rank (e.g. from A to A+), replace their old spell, or push the new spell back half a rank, whichever was most beneficial for the comparison.

Finally, do note that I am not ranking non-offensive faith spells at all, at least for now. Attack spells only.

Useful references:
https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/weapons-and-items/black-dark-magic/
https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/weapons-and-items/white-magic/
https://serenesforest.net/three-houses/characters/learned-spells/


The List

10 is the best, 0 is the worst. If two spells are at the same tier it means I did not end up conclusively feeling that one spell was better than another; spells are not ordered within tiers. The gaps between tiers are likely not equal.

10: Mire at D+, Thoron at C, Meteor at A, Bolting at A
9: Death at B
8: Banshee at C, Luna at C/B, Dark Spikes at B/A
7: Ragnarok at A, Excalibur at A, Hades at A
6: Wind at D, Agnea's Arrow at A+
5: Fire at D, Cutting Gale at C
4: Thunder at D, Miasma at D, Bolganone at C, Sagittae at C
3: Swarm at D+, Seraphim at B
2: Nosferatu at D+, Abraxas at A, Fimbulvetr at A
1: Blizzard at D
0: Aura at A


10: Mire at D+, Thoron at C, Meteor at A, Bolting at A

Thoron is crazy. How crazy? Well, here's the thing: if you reduced its range from 1-3 to 1-2 (a massive nerf), it... still has the highest power of any C rank spell. It's less accurate than the rest but the point is even with this massive nerf it's competitive! The 1-3 range just makes it one of the absolute best spells in the game. You can target things you otherwise couldn't, and you get a better linked attack radius too (more on that in a moment). All on a spell which is powerful for its rank and not bad on accuracy.

Compared to Thoron, Mire is gained one battle earlier (the difference between D+ and C), is less powerful (by 6) and less accurate (by 5), but lowers defence by 5. Granted, you need to land two followup physical hits on the target before the defence lowering makes up for the low power, so the advantage only really comes up against monsters. It also has a lot of uses, but is dark magic so can't benefit from Black Tomefaire (Warlock, Dark Flier). Would characters trade for Thoron for Mire, or would Hubert trade Mire for Thoron? I think it's pretty close to a push. Both rule.

Meteor and Bolting are the other top spells. The ability to strike at range 10 is bonkers. Boss killing, ballista sniping, aggroing any formation you want, the possibilities go on. For some unearthly reason Meteor even strikes an area of effect, making it easy to finish off the neighbouring targets with weak attacks like Curved Shot. And there's an argument that casting these isn't even as powerful as their linked effect. Granted, it's only as good as your support list, but handing out +7 or +10 hit (more than that for gambits) to all your friends just by equipping it is pretty great. Excellent on a dancer, good on everyone else. Far and away superior to any other spell gained at A rank or beyond.

Of the two, Meteor is more accurate (by 15) and hits a splash, but Bolting has more power (by 2) and can be used twice as often. I don't have a strong opinion on which is better.

I have trouble comparing the siege tomes and the 3-range spells. Would Marianne etc. trade Thoron at C for Meteor/Bolting at A? Would Constance/Manuela trade Bolting A for Thoron C? I'm unsure. It's a question of early power versus later power. Interestingly I find myself thinking that Manuela should make that trade for sure, because she has trouble reaching A reason, while Constance... maybe not? So it depends. As such, all four of these spells get the top rank.


9: Death at B

3 range is really good! But getting it B instead of C is obviously worse. On top of that, Death is kinda worse than Thoron anyway: -3 power, -5 hit, +2 weight... all for +10 crit? Yeah crit isn't nearly that important on spells (note: this is not the least time I will say this). That said this is still a great spell to have. Lysithea not having it (or Mire) is a major downer; I'd trade her B rank spell for it in a heartbeat. And that says something, because I'd say Lysithea already has the best B rank spell that *isn't* named Death!

One interesting thing is that one 3 range spell devalues another: for Hubert, getting Death is not very important, because he already has Mire (he would rather have learned Dark Spikes or Luna). Similarly, Dorothea or Marianne wouldn't be very interested in trading their B rank spells for Death, even though I don't rate their B rank spells as highly. But since the large majority of mages don't have Thoron or Mire, I'm inclined to rank Death highly, because it's a game-changer for Hapi and it would be for anyone else for whom it were their first 3-range spell.


8: Banshee at C, Luna at C/B, Dark Spikes at B/A

Luna's effect, ignoring resistance, is completely unique. In practice, this means it has a might of "Target's Rsl + 1". On Maddening this tends to be a pretty big number, making it comparable to "power" spells such as Ragnarok. Compared to other power spells it has low hit (65) and low weight (but this doesn't help much since you can't double with it). It has 2 uses, the same as Hades/Agnea's Arrow. The real question is, how does it stack up in terms of power?

Well, at C rank, Lysithea (and hypothetically, other units with Reason boons) can conceivably have it in Chapter 3 (at B rank, e.g. Edelgard, you're waiting longer). It's honestly a pretty weak spell in Chapter 3; average Rsl is about 5 here, giving it a might of 6... which is actually worse than any other C rank spell, on top of its fewer uses and bad hit. This actually just further emphasizes that Luna deserves comparison with power spells, since while those aren't gained until A rank, Luna arguably doesn't start coming into its own until around the point of the game you're getting A rank spells.

By midgame (Chapter 10-16, or 10-14 CF), average enemy res is into the mid teens, so during this stage, Luna is pretty comparable to the power spells. In the last few stages (Chapter 17-22, or 16-18 CF), enemy average res climbs into the twenties, which is ahead of all of them.

Of course, comparing to average Res honestly undersells Luna. This is because low-res enemies can be killed by other spells very well, but high-res enemies? Luna can do far more. No other magic does significant damage to falcon knights, infantry mages, or bosses like Cornelia, Rhea, and Nemesis.

So overall I'm pretty comfortable saying it beats out all the power spells. Lysithea would sooner give up Hades than Luna. Would she sooner give up Dark Spikes? Tough call. Dark Spikes is gained early enough to have a power edge for a while, has +15 hit, and outperforms on cavalry forever (which helps make up for Luna's other wins). I think Luna (at any rank) is better than Dark Spikes at A, but probably worse at B? Since I'm rating by average accession time, I'm willing to give them an equal score.

The last spell I've grouped in here is Banshee, another dark spell. Banshee is a pretty generic C rank spell (better than average power, worse than average hit and weight)... except that like Thoron, it has a very cool extra effect. In its case, it reduces enemy move by 5. For most targets this reduces move to zero and frequently just lets you ignore the enemy for a turn which is quite potent. Hubert has both Banshee and Dark Spikes, and I'd certainly sooner give up Dark Spikes on him... but to be fair that's because his Dark Spikes is gained later, at A - if he had it at B my decision might be reversed. Would Hapi give up Banshee for Luna and/or Dark Spikes? I dunno; that's a tough call. Almost certainly, if she didn't have Hades... which makes me think Banshee is slightly worse than the other two spells I put in this group, but only slightly.


7: Ragnarok at A, Excalibur at A, Hades at A

And now we get to the rest of the power spells. Ragnarok is the middle child. Compared to it, Dark Spikes has -2 might but hits weakness on cavalry. Excalibur has +20 hit, but -4 might, and hits weakness on fliers. Hades has -15 hit, but +3 might.

I'd say power trumps hit in all these cases (it's easy to find a battalion which trades power for hit at a 1:5 ratio, the relevant gap), which would lead to Hades > Ragnarok > Excalibur, but some things complicate this. In Hades's case, it's a dark spell, so there during Advanced tier it takes a power hit compared to Ragnarok if you go Warlock or Dark Flier; it also has one less use. And in Excalibur's case, it hits weakness on fliers, so while it will miss some kills due to lower power (which enemies depends on point of the game), it gains some by killing fliers. I tend not to value flier-killing quite as highly because they're already easily killed by archers, but it's still worth mentioning.

Excalibur vs. Dark Spikes is also worth drawing attention to. Both high-rank, high-power spells strike a weakness. Excalibur has +20 hit and isn't a dark tome, Dark Spikes has +2 power (so +6 against a weakness). I tend to value cavalry weakness more than flying weakness because there are cavalry bosses who lack protection, and because the other anti-cavalry options are range 1 (i.e. Knightkneeler, Spear of Assal), while the other anti-flying options (bows) are long range. And then of course there's the fact that Dark Spikes is sometimes gained before A, so yeah, I'm comfortable saying that Dark Spikes is better.

In conclusion I think this tier is roughly equal: all worse than Dark Spikes and Luna, but all better than some other power spells still to come!


6: Agnea's Arrow at A+

Agnea's Arrow is another power spell, and it's worse than most of the rest, simply because it's gained later. It's got +1 power and -10 hit on Ragnarok (one less use as well) which was already probably a losing trade, but the accession time really makes the difference. Heck, Lorenz gets both this and Ragnarok, and since Ragnarok is a tier earlier, there's no question which one he values more. And while Constance and Dorothea certainly appreciate Agnea in their arsenal, but they'd rather have its power earlier.

That said, Agnea is still good! I think it's comparable to Wind, and that's a good thing. I'll say more on Wind in the section about basic spells, but for now, some quick thought experiments: would Dorothea or Constance give up Agnea for Wind? Lategame power vs. earlygame accuracy... for Constance I think the answer is no (Fire's not much worse than Wind), but for Dorothea maybe yes? Conversely, giving up Wind for Agnea... well, Linhardt or Flayn would do it in an instant, because they have Fire, while Annette... maybe. In all cases, +5 damage vs. Excalibur is enough to attract notice at those midgame one-shots. On the other hand, Lorenz would happily trade Agnea for Wind, since he already has Ragnarok, and +10 hit early matters more than +1 power late.


For the next two sections, I'm going to split the spells by type, rather than rank.

6: Wind at D
5: Fire at D
4: Thunder at D, Miasma at D


Most mages get one of these at D. They're kinda balanced against each other. Compared to Wind, Fire trades 1 weight and 10 hit for 1 power. Thunder makes the same trade compared to Fire. Miasma almost makes the same trade compared to Thunder, but mercifully for it, it doesn't lose accuracy.

On the whole I think Wind > Fire > Thunder is an easy call to make. The power differences do matter - Thunder vs. Wind is often the difference between needing a finisher hit from steel vs. a finisher hit from iron, and there are a few foes like Chapter 1 Dedue (for the Eagles/Deer) where you really want every bit of magical oomph you can get. But 10 hit alone is surely close to outweighing 1 power (worth noting that iron sword vs. iron lance is 1 power vs. 8-9 hit at low levels), and the weight certainly matters. Since this will be the character's lightest spell with a couple exceptions; its weight will be the limit on them doubling.

Miasma vs. Thunder is harder to call. Since Miasma doesn't lose hit, 1 power vs. 1 weight is a comparison which IMO favours Miasma in the earlygame, but favours Thunder later when you're just using the spells to try to double armours anyway most likely. And of course if you're in Advanced tier and don't have Valkyrie access, Miasma suddenly loses power by a lot.

As a side note, Wind even has 10 crit (Thunder has 5, the other two zero). You can't really do crit builds with mages (outside zany double Wrath setups, I suppose) but it's a nice bonus on an already solid spell.


5: Cutting Gale at C
4: Bolganone at C, Sagittae at C


These spells are similar; they're the baseline C rank spells. You want to have one of them: they represent a +5 power increase, give or take, over your previous spells. But these three aren't very exciting past that. Almost everyone has a C rank spell (either these, or the similar-but-better Banshee or Thoron), though Anna and Lysithea buck the trend (Lysithea with Luna, which is quite different; Anna just has nothing!).

Interestingly, they're actually quite accurate, averaging 90 hit (a few characters, like Dorothea and Marianne, even have one as their highest-hit spell). Sagittae sits in the middle (though it does have a strangely high use count at 10); Cutting Gale has +5 hit, +5 crit, and -1 weight, while Bolganone has +1 power, -5 hit, -5 crit. I'd say Cutting Gale's a touch better than the other two, but only a touch.

Comparing them to basic spells is hard. Most people have one of each, so the question becomes... would I rather trade my basic spell for Blizzard, or lose my C rank spell entirely? The former gives you bad accuracy for a couple chapters and in some cases a game-spanning AS hit, the latter gives you power woes for several chapters. I think the answer depends a lot on which spell we're talking about (Wind to Blizzard is 30 hit, ouch) and what spell you get at B rank or beyond. Of course, characters with two D rank spells wouldn't mind losing one, and characters who have two C rank spells (which could include Thoron) don't mind losing one too much either.

On the whole I think I value Wind>Blizzard too much for any of these spells to trump, and otherwise I find it hard to call. Hence my decision to put Cutting Gale (the better C spell) with Fire, and Bolganone/Sagittae with Thunder/Miasma... though this also implies the gap between my 5 and 4 tiers is very small.


3: Swarm at D+, Seraphim at B

Swarm vs. Mire is depressing. Both D+ dark spells. Same hit, a similar debuff effect (Swarm's is speed instead of defence). Swarm gets to win weight/power by 1, Mire gets to win range by 1. This is hilariously unequal.

Swarm mostly shows up and manages to be slightly lighter than Miasma, which is nice, but also weaker and has Blizzard-level accuracy. The speed debuff is only very rarely useful (mostly against monsters). I'm pretty confident saying it's worse than Miasma; Lysithea and Hapi would much sooner give up Swarm then be stuck at 70 hit until C or even B rank. But it's not much worse because it always maintains its niche use against monsters. Just... most units would only give up an already redundant spell to get it.


Seraphim is the first faith spell on this list, and they play by different rules. First of all, the thing to know is that Faith Prowess does not boost hit as much as Reason Prowess (it boosts evade more, but this is only rarely useful because faith spells are so heavy). The gap ranges from 4 points at D+ to 10 points at A+. Additionally, because there are so few offensive faith spells, it becomes reasonable to not set Faith Prowess at all and save yourself a skill slot, at which point the hit gap versus Reason instead varies from 11 (D+) to 20 (A+).

Seraphim has 75 hit, but if you consider the math posted above its actual effective hit is in the 60's at best, i.e. not good. Fortunately its only real use is targeting monsters who usually (not always) have terrible evasion, and hitting them with 24 power. It's honestly not an amazing damage move even against them since it has trouble doubling, but it does cut through barriers nicely (particularly noteworthy since with Caduceus/Thyrsus it makes a great opener to begin a chain of uncounterable barrier-breaking attacks)... unless the barrier in question is an anti-magic one. Still, this is a pretty cool niche. Would mages trade Nosferatu for it? ... yeah, probably, in most cases. Would they trade a non-garbage D rank spell (even Miasma or Thunder) for it? Probably not. I'm inclined to say it's comparable to Swarm: it's overall better (but different) at its monster niche, but doesn't have Swarm's slight earlygame utiity, and requires investing into a faith tree which some would rather not bother.


2: Nosferatu at D+, Abraxas at A, Fimbulvetr at A

Fimbulvetr has 12 might and 65 hit. What were they thinking? As a reminder, Ragnarok is 15/80, Hades is 80/65, Agnea is 16/70. Yes, Fimbulvetr has crit, but good luck doubling anything with this (except maybe the slowest of armours, who you'd kill without a crit), and it's hard to get excited about a 15% higher chance of maybe killing something on your non-doubling chip damage.

It's worse than Agnea. Constance manages to get Fimbulvetr at B (unlike the A rank it is for everyone else) and Agnea at A+ and I'm pretty sure I still care about Agnea more (though at that point it's at least competitive). Dorothea would rather have Agnea too, the extra power is worth the wait. Lorenz wouldn't care either way. Looking at things from the other side... would people with Fimbulvetr trade it for Agnea? Interestingly, people with Fimbulvetr are usually neutral in Reason, so it would be a rather long wait for the added power. So it's actually close in those cases. But there's no case I'm willing to say Fimbulvetr is definitely better, unlike Agnea. And if you're looking to add a power spell to someone's resume, like Linhardt or Annette, they'd certainly prefer Agnea by a lot, +5 power over Excalibur has a major niche would Fimbulvetr can't really fill with its +1.

Marianne and Ingrid would trade Fimbulvetr for Fire, and Constance would rather keep Fire than Fimbulvetr, I think.

What about Thunder/Miasma? This seems more promising, but... honestly, nobody with these would trade them for Fimbulvetr, since they basically all already have a high-power spell of some sort at that rank which outclasses Fimbulvetr. Even Mercedes, who barely cares about Thunder, wouldn't make this trade. What about Seraphim? Would Marianne give up her A rank spell for Seraphim? She... loses 3 peak damage against humans (god, Fimbulvetr only beats Thoron by 3, depressing), but gains 12 damage against monsters, and breaks their barriers, and gets this spell earlier. Yikes? Seraphim feels more important to Ingrid than Fimbulvetr does too. Okay. I think I can convincingly say Fimbulvetr is the worst spell considered yet.


Let's talk about another underwhelming power spell.

Abraxas has 14 might, 90 hit (but really, compared to Reason spells you should hit it by 10-20 points or so), and is heavy with 2 uses. It's best described as worse Ragnarok. Now of course, worse Ragnarok is still useful enough, as Agnea's Arrow proved. If it were a Reason spell with 75 hit gained at A, I would consider it comparable enough to Agnea's Arrow, maybe even a bit better: lose 2 power, but get it earlier. Unfortunately, it's not a reason spell, it's an A rank faith spell. This is bad.

See, the thing is, almost everyone slinging spells wants to go to A reason and beyond, with S being the real goal. Reason Prowess has a strong effect on accuracy (up to 20 hit), and most offensive spells are reason spells. So pushing this up leads to both more accuracy and new spells, and pushing it to S gives a very nice bonus of +1 range. It's safe to say anyone training seriously in magic classes is likely to reach at least A reason, barring the odd hybrid build which sacrifices reason for weaponry (think Holy Knight Bernadetta or maybe Dark Knight Sylvain). On the other hand, because there are no great offensive faith spells, few people want to raise faith ranks just for Prowess. And if you learn Aura at A, there's a guarantee your last useful spell otherwise was at B, so that's a big extra investment for this. To top it off, unless you do go Holy Knight, there's a shortage of classes which boost white tomes: Warlock, Dark Flier, and Valkyrie all buff black spells, but not this. Gremory at least evens the playing field.

For all these reasons, Constance would far rather give up Abraxas than Agnea's Arrow, and Dorothea would not think of trading the reason A+ spell for the faith A spell. The comparison is not close.

Would Annette rather give up Abraxas or Wind? Joke question, I've never gotten Abraxas with her even though it's nominally her strongest spell, it's just too out of the way since she's faith neutral and learns nothing else past C. Would Lysithea rather give up Abraxas or Miasma? Again, silly question, she gets virtually nothing from Abraxas due to already having other power spells. Would anyone trade their non-Blizzard D rank spell for Abraxas? Honestly I'm having trouble seeing it. Maybe Linhardt but since he wouldn't want to delay Warp he wouldn't get this until A+, which is... ugh. So probably not him, even.

What about Abraxas vs. Seraphim? As faith spells they're easier to compare. And Seraphim feels like it wins this competition; while Abraxas does offer power for some, it's power that many people already have in other ways, and very late. Seraphim being earlier with a clear niche at monster-fighting gives it the edge.

What about Abraxas vs. Fimbulvetr? Now we're finally talking. Abraxas has more hit (under any assumptions about reason vs. faith), more power (unless Black Tomefaire enters play), but is more out of the way for most. Do I think this balances? Actually... yeah, roughly. These are our two power spells that aren't very good but fill a niche because any power spell is better than none. Which one is better will depend somewhat on the unit; Marianne would probably prefer Abraxas, but Constance would likely get more out of even an A rank Fimbulvetr than Abraxas. Annette gets very little out of either. Rarely do I feel they'd be too far apart.

To bridge to the next section, how about Abraxas vs. Nosferatu? I think some units might reasonably give up Nosferatu for Abraxas, just to have more uses of a power spell, or a power spell at all. But... certainly not everyone, Nosferatu does have a little niche of its own, and you get it almost for free, while Abraxas requires going out of your way. I'm fine with these two on the same tier.


Finally, let's talk about Nosferatu. Everyone gets this, but very few care about it much. 1 might obviously sucks, 8 weight sucks, 80 hit... is okay. Notably, earlygame is where faith spells suffer least for hit, the gap between Thunder at D+ and Nosferatu at D+ is just 4 hit. So if your D rank spell is Blizzard, Nosferatu is actually your most accurate spell for a bit! (Sorry, Marianne.) Anyway, Nosferatu's niche is that if its crappy stats are good enough to get the job done, you can heal yourself with it, either on player phase or potentially enemy phase if you're feeling spicy. And while this is definitely a niche I have made use of, I feel like it's probably a smaller niche than Swarm has... Swarm being obtained at the same rank, and having similarly poor stats (a bit less hit, better power/weight). but debuffing a monster's speed probably comes up more than the self-heal? You could argue me, but that's my kneejerk. I think Lysithea and Hapi would rather give up Nosferatu than Swarm, and plenty of units would trade Nosferatu for Swarm. Not everyone: notably Marianne and Linhardt start with this and nothing else, so it's a bit better for them. But overall, I think this is where this goes. This is one I could easily be argued on.


1: Blizzard at D

Blizzard is the worst reason spell.

My assumptions for these ratings is "everyone has a D rank spell". As such, Blizzard gets no credit for being better than an empty slot. And it's the worst D rank spell by a lot, so nobody actually wants it. Everyone with it as their solitary D rank spell would rather have another D rank spell instead.

Let's compare Blizzard to Thunder, which is already one of the weaker D rank spells otherwise. Blizzard's numbers? -1 power, -10 hit, +10 crit. As I've noted previously, crit isn't very useful on spells. Blizzard is heavier AND less powerful than the average D rank spell, and also has the lowest hit by far. All for... 5 more crit than Wind? Yeah who cares.

Shamir and Bernadetta are the only characters who learn this as well as another D rank spell. Would they rather have Blizzard, or... almost anything else? Especially for Bernie, who currently lacks a spell above 80 hit, almost anything else would be better. For Shamir, maybe you could sell me on Blizzard for a second C rank spell being a losing trade. Maybe.


0: Aura at A

If you've ever had the joy of watching Roderigue get attacked by bandits in Felix's paralogue, seeing him get doubled while having 50-some displayed hit on them in return, you may have an idea how bad Aura is.

Aura tries its best to make the other offensive faith spells look good. Compared to Abraxas it has -2 power and -20 hit. Gross. It's the least accurate spell in the game, fullstop. Compared to Fimbulvetr, it has +5 listed hit (so anywhere from -3 to -15 in reality), equal power, and... even 5 less critical, which is sad since crit might be the one thing Aura has to try to have a niche. Plus it's a faith spell, which as mentioned is a bad thing.

How about Aura vs. Blizzard? Again, Shamir and Bernadetta are the only characters who have a use for Blizzard using my assumptions (that everyone must get one D rank spell, and that Blizzard is clearly the worst). Would they trade Blizzard for Aura? ... honestly, I don't think so. The slight critfishing niche Blizzard has against slow monsters beats Aura trying to do the same with 5 more crit but 8 more weight, I think, and more to the point they just get Aura way earlier; Shamir won't ever train faith to A (bane). It's closer for Bernie but I think the answer is the same.

What about everyone else? What if we make them an offer: you get Blizzard at D+ in addition to your other spells, or you get Aura either at A, or a half-rank after your existing A rank spell (since nobody is trading their existing A rank faith spell for this). ... again, I think some characters *might* get a little value out of Blizzard for its tiny crit-fishing niche, while basically nobody is grabbing Aura. You could make a slight case for someone like Linhardt, but... on average, I think no.


So there you go!
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on December 01, 2023, 03:01:22 AM
To quote Ciato: "Ya'll should argue about Aura vs. Abraxas"

Pretty good list overall.  On Aura vs. Abraxas, I agree that for your average random mage running Reason proficiency, Abraxas is probably a bit better (although still pretty terrible).  And this also assumes you've probably made a mistake in your build in going for A Reason / A Faith rather than just tunneling on S rank Reason.  Comes up with Annette as already noted - first time through the game I got an out-of-house Annette to Faith Rank A and was rewarded with a spell I'll never cast, great.  But Aura would have been even more never-cast.  But maybe once in a blue moon Abraxas is useful then.

I'd say that Aura > Abraxas comes largely from the idea that you are building a unit that just wants to use offensive White Magic for whatever reason despite the game really not supporting this that much (so an angry Bishop or a Holy Knight), and it's mostly from that 2 vs. 3 uses (+50% for Aura!).  Maybe you're doubling a slow monster with high HP and don't have Seraphim, which just eats up your non-Nosferatu WM charges really fast.  Aura holds out mildly better, and also has that 1 Wgt less.  And while crit-farming is generally a losing trade, I feel that at the low end of the spell pool, the rules change somewhat.  Abraxas is just almost always a worse option than high-rank Reason spells, and thus never gets used.  Aura might help if you're in some sort of desperate situation where you're willing to "spend" Divine Pulses to help arrange a key crit or something.

But yeah.  Black Magic being a bit bland is fine, and Dark Magic all has gimmicks, but White Magic probably needed more gimmicks than Nosferatu's healing and Seraphim's monster effectiveness.  I know that 3H intentionally depowered most weapon triangle mechanics as being a little too "gamey" for the feel they were going for, but having some sort of bonus vs. Dark Magic would have been the easiest thing to toss onto one of the two dreadful A-- white magic spells.  But just...  something.  Especially for Aura, as while enemies are equipped with Abraxas, Aura is really rare in enemy hands IIRC?  So players won't get "ambushed" by it doing something weird like applying a free Retribution effect or whatever.  And if they truly wanted to keep White Magic a tier below Reason to keep it from being overcentralizing, just toss a few extra uses out for the poor sods who at least try to build a WM-based mage anyway - Abraxas to 4 uses, Aura to 6 uses, say (which would then be 8/12 in Bishop / Gremory).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 03, 2023, 05:10:59 PM
Warcraft II

So apparently, this game (of all games) is having a small amount of resurgence lately.  And man, this game is pretty famously hilariously bad balance, let's analyze.

So...unlike later games, units by design just get outmoded.  Like...knights/ogres are just better than footmen/grunts.  How much better?  Let's analyze.

So Knights/Ogres cost about 50% more (600 gold vs 800 gold 100 lumber).

They have about 50% more HP (90 HP vs 60 HP).

They are faster (13 speed to 10 speed)

They have more armour (4 base instead of 2 base)

They have more damage (8 basic + 4 piercing, vs 6 basic + 3 piercing).

So to break this down a bit, a fully upgraded footman will deal 7 damage to a fully upgraded Knight, and a fully upgraded Knight will deal 10 back to a fully upgraded footman.  (Well, slightly less on both cause it's randomly between 50%-100% of that number).  But...also the numbers are even less favourable if they aren't fully upgraded (when this matchup is more likely to happen).  Then the footman is dealing 5 to the Knight, and the Knight is dealing 10 back to the Footman.

But even the 10 vs 7 damage ratio when paired with the 90 HP vs 60 HP ratio, ignoring the speed difference just makes the Knight better than the Footman.  This is about a 2.14:1 ratio.

Standard math for this kind of thing, if a unit costs N times as much, in general the maximum amount more its stats can be is N*(N+1)/2.  Which is to say, this assumes all the little enemies hit the big enemy at the same time, and there's no choke points that force one-on-ones or other surface area issues.  For what it's worth, the ratios in a more balanced game (like Starcraft) tend to be much lower than this value Like...zealots cost 4x as much as zerglings.  4*5/2 = 10.  Their stat ratio is more like 4:1 not 10:1.

Anyway, 1.5*2.5/2 = 1.875.  2.14 is over this value.  And there's also all sorts of added value (the extra move speed, the fact that they turn into spellcasters in tier 3).  Knights/Ogres are just designed to obsolete footmen.

---

OK, so moving onto what is one of the core imbalances of Warcraft 2, Bloodlust.  Ogres and Knights upgrade to Ogre Mages and Paladins.  And Ogre Mages get a spell called Bloodlust.  Warcraft 2 works on a (partially) subtraction defence system (the basic damage is subtraction defence, but the piercing damage does not care).  Without this spell, fully upgraded Knights and Ogres deal 8 to each other (8 basic - 8 armor) + 8 piercing = 8.  But this spell doubles the attack power (before armour subtraction, so that becomes (16 basic - 8 armor) + 16 piercing = 24.  So essentially this ends up with triple the damage in a Paladin vs Ogre Mage fight.

---

Another interesting thing is how little archers/axe throwers are used by players who know the game.  You might think...surely range would be valuable in some situations right?  But...these units have some serious problems.  They have significant AI problems, like if you put them next to a bunch of peons mining gold, they will fail to target without micro--they switch targets extremely slow.  But also they don't share any of the upgrades.  They don't get armour upgrades at all (their armour is always 0).  They do get two +attack upgrades unique to them, but unlike the melee upgrades these are +1 upgrades and not +2 upgrades.  The elven archers do also have one extra lategame upgrade which is a +3 upgrade, so they actually do end up getting a total of +5 total piercing damage (whereas melee units get +4 piercing/+4 armor).  However it's not really enough, and the orc equivalent doesn't get this anyway.  The other thing about these units is...yeah, range is good, but there's other units for that.  Ballistas/catapults.  Towers which you can build in the enemy bases or just outside enemy bases.  Battleships/juggernauts if it's a sea battle.

---

Anyway, just getting back into the basic math of this game, may have more thoughts later.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 06, 2023, 09:45:55 PM
Warcraft 2.

OK, so following up, the Ogre Mage math is fairly well-known, but here's a few things that are maybe not obvious.

Every unit in Warcraft 2 has the same supply (of 1).  And this has a number of implications.

First, higher cost units are just inherently more supply efficient, and that's not negligible.  Farms cost about 750 in resources, so you can kind-of add 175 to the cost of every unit.  (Which, for example, makes the ratio between Knights and Footmen even worse--instead of a 1.5:1 ratio, it's a 1075:775 which is about 1.39:1).

But something else that has just been known for a long time is that, while the orc Ogres are better than the Human Knights, human mages are better than orc death knights.  And specifically, Blizzard is just a much better spell than Death and Decay.  So much so that humans are actually considered to have an advantage on sea maps, and to be competitive with Orcs on land maps at game speeds of slower than fastest speed.

(Mages do have one other really good spell as well, which is invisibility.  On sea maps they can cast invisibility on a transport unit, and since it never attacks or casts a spell it's basically just unhittable.  On land maps invisibility means that there's no way to stop a mage from getting to a key location in the enemy base, usually the gold mine, and dealing lots of damage).

Other spells from Death Knights/Mages I do see get used in the games I've watched include

* Haste (Death Knight--usually to do something similar to invisibility and get a death knight in range to cause damage to a base, just not as good)
* Slow (mage) -- halves attack speed and movement I believe?  Notably a bloodlusted and slowed ogre still beats a knight, so it's not a cure-all, but it's not terrible.
* Polymorph (mage) -- It's 200 mana, and that's just so much mana, but like...the effect is still pretty good; answer any unit.  In particular, I've noticed that while humans will go gryphon riders against orcs, orcs won't go dragons against humans, and polymorph is probably a big reason for that.  (Another big reason obviously would be that flying units at least enjoy some rock paper scissors advantage over ground units like ogres).
* Death Coil (Death Knight) -- seems to be an okay ranged option against one key target.


Paladins are considered quite bad, to the point that human players often won't invest in them at all, not even get a church even if they did invest in Knights in the middle game.  But Paladins do have one okay spell which is Exorcism.  Able to one-shot a Death Knight.  And it's not like an orc player won't build Death Knights just because they're worse than Mages--they're still worth making.  I'm still not sure Paladins are worth making in human games vs orcs, though--I have seen them made in one long game I found on youtube, but that player still lost.  Any time a paladin ends up in a scrap with Ogres it just seems quite bad.

I do wonder if the right answer to ogre mages from a human player is Dwarven Demolition Squads.  Slightly more expensive than an Ogre Mage, but can kill potentially multiple Ogre Mages at once, and I have seen Dwavrven Demolition Squads win such a game (although it's not clear if the replay I watched was just someone trolling their opponent due to a skill gap--might have been).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 15, 2023, 04:47:11 AM
Hearthstone.

So...saw a discussion on the best hearthstone card currently in wild.

Wanted to go into a bit more depth.

First, I want to break it down a bit by class.

Druid

It seems to me that the best druid card at the moment is Floop's Glorious Gloop (coincidentally the highest winrate card in the stats I'm looking at).  Just a card that tends to produce 10+ mana with the right combo.

Other standouts in the stats in the deck I'm looking at (Mill Druid) include Dew Process, which...is obviously specific to mill druid.

Stats from another Druid deck (Reno Druid) have the top four in stats being Astalor Bloodsworn, Reno Lone Ranger, Wildheart Guff, and Moonlit Guidance, with Floop's Gloop coming in 5th.

Paladin

Far and away the #1 card in the stats is Call to Arms, which seems like a pretty good candidate.

Crusader Aura is also showing up as monstrously good in the stats.  (Also a card likely to get nerfed soon thanks to standard).

What also shows up in the stats, is that the Holy Wrath combo is pretty good.  This is a three card 7 mana combo where you play Order in the Court to put Shirvallah the Tiger on top of the deck, then play Holy Wrath to deal 25 to the enemy hero.  But I don't think any one of these three cards can be really credited with this combo.

Priest

The deck I have stats for is shadow priest.  From this deck, Darkbishop Benedictus, Patches the Pirate, and Voidtouched Attendant are probably the most important.

But worth noting the stats are also very good for Ship's Chirurgeon and Shadowbomber as well.  (Technically both a bit higher than Voidtouched in the stats I'm looking at, though intuitively I suspect Voidtouched is still more important.  Obviously stats aren't really available for Benedictus or Patches due to how they work).

Shaman

So for Even Shaman, I think it has to be Genn Greymane.

(If you want a non-Genn card, best four for even shaman in the stats look like The Stonewright, Totemic Surge, Carving Chisel, and Trusty Companion).

Top cards from Reno Shaman decks by winrate include Reno Lone Ranger, Doctor Holl'idae, Astalor, Zephrys.

Golganeth interestingly is one of the few cards that show up as pretty good in the stats for both Reno decks and Even decks (not quite in the top 4 for either, but around 5th-6th for both).

Rogue

Looking at specifically pirate rogue...obviously Patches the Pirate must once again be given credit (even if his contribution is hard to measure with available stat tools).

The highest cards in the stats are Southsea Deckhand, Secret Passage, and Swordfish.  I think Secret Passage deserves some specific callout here, as it goes into basically every rogue deck and not just pirate rogue.

Stats from Kingsbane...highest winrate cards are Cavern Shinyfinder, Cutting Class, Deadly Poison, and Harmonic Hip Hop.  Cutting Class is certainly an interesting standout, being a 0 mana draw 2.  But like...let's be real, the most important card in Kingsbane Rogue is clearly Kingsbane.

Stats from Miracle Rogue...top 5 in the stats are like Mailbox Dancer, Swindle, Arcane Giant, Gear Shift, and Secret Passage.

Warlock

Warlock right now is almost exclusively quest, which means I basically have to pick The Demon Seed.  Once again obviously a card that won't show up in the stats.

Top three in the stats are The Solarium, Fracking, and Chamber of Viscidus.  I think The Solarium specifically does stand out a lot like Secret Passage as something that goes into a large variety of decks.

(Chamber of Viscidus still being in the conversation is funny, given how hard it was nerfed--from 2 mana with 3 uses to 3 mana with 2 uses).

Demon Hunter

It's Final Showdown.

Stats aren't worth too much in decks that tend to draw every card from their deck.  (Highest in the stats on drawn is Ill'gynoth, but I wouldn't read too much into that).

Mage

The relevant mage deck is obviously quest mage, and the two most important cards are clearly Open the Waygate and Grand Magister Rommath.

Warrior

The popular deck here is Even Warrior.  The key enabling card here is obviously Odyn Prime Designate.

Genn Greymane is in the conversation as an enabler, but there are non-even builds of warrior that are built more around Risky Skipper.

Top three drawn winrate in even warrior are Stoneskin Armorer, Craftsman Hammer, and Odyn.

(Non-even is fairly new and doesn't have signficiant stats yet)

---

So I think loosely this can be broken into....

1) cards you build your deck around on a fundamental level and usually don't need to draw them, or just have a ton of ways to tutor them (Genn Greymane, Quests from DH/Mage/Warlock, Darkbishop Benedictus, Kingsbane, Patches the Pirate).

2) Cards you build your deck around at least some and need to draw (Floop's Gloop, Call to Arms, Crusader Aura, Chamber of Viscidus, Cutting Class, Swordfish, Astalor, Reno Lone Ranger, Wildheart Guff, Grand Magister Rommath, Voidtouched Attendant, Odyn)

3) Generically good cards that kind of go into every deck (Secret Passage, The Solarium, Gear Shift)

3rd category...Obviously there are more cards that can be filed into any of these categories (like generically good cards that slot into lots of decks, you could add Ice Block and Aquatic Form, as well as druid ramp cards like Breath of Dreams and Invigorate).  I'm inclined to go with the best two being Secret Passage and the Solarium based on the stats, and probably Secret Passage being the overall best.

2nd category...pretty long list here.  Just based on the stats there are definitely standouts, however.  Call to Arms and Crusader's Aura are standouts in Paladin.  Floop's Gloop is standout in mill druid.  And various cards are standouts in reno decks.

1st category...almost impossible to compare these, though I am tempted to give the nod to Genn Greymane at the moment as being in the most high tier decks right now.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on December 18, 2023, 02:41:55 AM
On WarCraft II: Are sea maps a thing in multiplayer?  On one hand, if you want to do a sea map, I guess you're stuck doing WC2 since WC3 doesn't support that.  But it seems like such a swingy mechanic, due to the way oil works where warships need oil and oil is found at sea.  If you get behind even a little at the warship race, then your oil patch gets camped by enemy warships and you can't build any more warships while your opponent can.  I guess you can use fliers to maybe get back in the game, but once you start winning the ship race, you can just mix in destroyers that can shoot up. And...  that will be that, as while you could hypothetically defend yourself from shelling with catapults, presumably your opponent just takes the map and locks you in.  (In the campaign, the enemy ship AI is nicely not very aggressive, so it's not a thing there, of course.)  But this is just theorycraft - maybe people found a way to make sea maps work?  Or maybe have some optional sea component on the side?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 20, 2023, 09:18:18 AM
Yes, sea maps in WC2 1v1 are a thing.

Just anecdotally based on games I've watched on youtube, humans can lose sea control, and just make a panic transport in response, load in 6 peasants, and drop them at random gold mine islands all over the map, and often win from there, because they will have a gold advantage for making griffins and mages, and can basically ignore oil for a long time.

They do eventually need to take an oil well, not because they need to take back sea control (they can keep casting invisibility on their transport units) but because transports cost oil.  But when they need oil they can either ninja an oil well, or wait until they have mages to defend from land.

I suspect when playing orc rather than human losing sea control might be a lot more disastrous, however.  The strength of orcs in sea maps is loading ogre mages into transports, and they can't do invisible transports so they need at least enough sea control to get their transport through.

Quote
I guess you can use fliers to maybe get back in the game, but once you start winning the ship race, you can just mix in destroyers that can shoot up.

Destroyers, like several WC2 units, you can literally dodge their shots; they shoot where the unit previously was.   They also have friendly fire.  (I've seen someone try to take out two destroyers by flying back and forth over them with a gnomish flying machine and trying to get them to shoot each other to death).

Destroyers are also just...kinda garbage in general.  4 range, lol.  They get outranged by archers.  Juggernauts are better, because they are 6 range with a lot more splash, so while you can dodge their shots too you usually still take some splash.  And they can actually harass land targets if the land doesn't have catapults or spellcasters defending.  (Catapults also having dodgeable AoE shots, but 8 range).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 20, 2023, 10:23:08 AM
Competitive NES Tetris.

Apparently this is a thing now, like actually an esport with live events, prize pools, and 13 year old hardcore competitors and has been a thing for the last...6-7 years or so.  And there are player stats:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11EVjpP3bq1Q5zZJqZI23dmiYIsfcKcJBO376BTR6bBI/edit#gid=441377961

So okay, a few basics.

Players play on the same setting, starting games at the same time on their own console, and whoever scores higher wins the match (usually best of 3 or best of 5).

Speed is an interesting part of the discussion.  Now, the NES Tetris (and I believe original GB is the same here) has a speed progression where it only tracks number of frames between pieces dropping.  Normally between levels 0 to 10 the speed increases every level by some number of frames (like it's 8 frames per descent at level 8, 6 frames per descent at level 9, 5 frames per descent at level 10) but that's irrelevant for our purposes, because most competitive matches have a level 18 start (and sometimes a level 19 start).

At level 18 the speed is 3 frames between each time a piece descends.

From level 19-28 the speed is 2 frames between each time a piece descends.

From level 29+ the speed is 1 frame between each time a piece descends.  And the speed never increases after that on the base console.

Level 29 was called the "kill screen", because until about 2 years ago the game was thought to be impossible at this speed--using normal methods it was impossible to get a piece all the way to the left hand side of the screen.  So this is just where matches would end.  But then due to innovative ways of holding controller (sometimes involving feet), people got really good at the level 29 speed, and have reached like...level 140.

Level 39 super kill screen: For the sake of not muddying the competitive scene in ultra long matches, they ROMhacked the game to have another speed increase at level 39.  EDIT: this is confirmed just double the descent rate of the killscreen (https://tetrisinterest.com/2023-classic-tetris-world-championship-will-have-a-super-killscreen/), so 2 rows of descent for every 1 frame.  There is definitely still some chance to move--I've seen someone land a center well tetris at this speed, but that needed to be set up in advance before the speed increase.

Scoring:

So the scoring is:

Single: 40

Double: 100

Triple: 300

Tetris: 1200

(And then you multiply by the level+1, so a tetris on level 19 is 24000.  A tetris on level 39 is worth 48000).

Tetrises are so much more efficient than everything else.  Like you need four triples to equal the score of one tetris.  And there is essentially a limit to the number of lines you can clear (set by the kill screen initially, and now by the super kill screen) so there is a lot of aiming to get nothing but tetrises, especially before the game speeds up.

So first question, what would a perfect score going into the level 19 speed change be?

When you start on level 18, there are 130 lines before the level 19 transition.  (No, I don't know why it's 130).  This allows for a theoretical maximum of 33 tetrises.  And tetrises on level 18 are worth 22800.  So a perfect score transitioning into level 19 would be 752,400.  As it happens, one player got very close to this theoretical cap in a competitive game.  Sidnev once got 713,321 in a competitive match, so like...she was two tetrises short of a flawless level 19 transition.

What about the level 29 transition?  If you got nothing but tetrises the whole time from level 18 to 29, what would that look like?  This is a bit more complicated to calculate, cause points go up every level, and we alternate between getting 2 and 3 tetrises per level.  But plugging into a spreadsheet, I've got a theoretical max of 1,490,400.  Again, people have gotten surprisingly close--dogplayingtetris got a 1,390,540 transition into level 29.  Which is like...probably something like four or five tetrises short of perfection.

What about the level 39 super killscreen?  Now, this is much more theoretical, because while a lot of people can survive the level 29 speed, and while the cap was added at 39 to encourage people to go big and go for tetrises on this speed, people do still play at least somewhat safe.  But...still, what's the theoretical cap?  The theoretical cap is 2,528,400.  (Not counting the possibility of scoring anything on 39, which, granted, people have scored one last tetris on 39).  Are people close to 2.5 million going into level 39?  No.  In the spreadsheet there's a 1,705,168 from Alex T.  Although...there was technically a game from a no-cap tournament that got higher Game 3 here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2eNkt7O84o), being a no-cap tournament there was no super kill screen at level 39, but Fractal after hearing that his round 1 opponent had topped out and the match was over, started playing ultra-aggressive, going for all tetrises at the level 29 speed, and got a 1,899,740 going into level 39.  In particular, he entered 29 at 1,230,880, which means in level 29-38 he got an additional 668,860 points.  The theoretical maximum gain in those levels is something like an additional 1,038,000.  So that's still 64% of the available points between levels 29-38.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 20, 2023, 10:25:42 PM
Competitive NES Tetris.

I guess there's one more statistic that people care about that I might as well calculate, which is "earliest maxout".

See, with an unmodified cartride, Tetris has a maximum score of 999,999.  The community fixed this with modifications to accommodate higher scores, but before that happened a tradition formed around a leaderboard for who hit 999,999 in the fewest lines.

When's the earliest you could hit 999,999 with a level 18 start?  By my calculations looks like 43 tetrises, 172 lines, so like the end of level 22.

It has apparently been done in 175 lines (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bf_XGkS53UM&t=410s).  The interesting thing here is that this run had 7 burns, not 3 like you might expect.  A few reasons for that.  First, 172 lines, (43 tetrises with no burns) overshoots the target by about half a tetris, so there's wiggle room to lose some points.  Next, those 7 burn lines do give some points.  Not a lot, but like...1/4 of a Tetris.  Finally, because the tetrises are pushed into slightly later levels as most of the burns were on earlier levels, the level multiplier also adds a few points.  My spreadsheet is still off of the actual score by about 3000 points, though...trying to figure out why...

OK, I think I've figured it out.  When you get a line on level 18 that progresses you to level 19, it gets scored with level 19 points.  I suspect there's no game design reason for this, more that just in the code the level counter got incremented before the score got added.  Anyway, this means that several of my estimates in the previous post above are wrong.

level 19 transition...my previous estimate 752,400 is wrong, one of the tetrises will be 1200 points more, so 753,600.  And additionally, I suppose you could squeeze in one burn line worth 19*40 = 760.  So the cap is more like 754,360.

level 29 transition...my previous estimate 1,490,400 is wrong.  11 of the tetrises (the last one at level 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 24, 25, 26, 27, and 28) will be worth 1200 more points.  So that's an additional 13,200 for a total of 1,503,600.  And on top of that, I guess you could squeeze in a one-line burn on level 28 for 29*40 = 1160 for a total of 1,504,760.

level 39 transition...my previous estimate 2,528,400 is wrong.  21 of those tetrises will be worth 1200 more points for 25,200 additional points.  This brings the total to 2,553,600.  In addition, you could burn one line on level 38 for 40*39=1,560 points for a total of 2,555,160 points.

---

Anyway, getting back to the theoretically earliest maxout--assuming all tetrises it still seems to be line 172 with 43 tetrises.  But now with substantial overshoot with a score of 1,017,600.  The record linked above with 7 burns and 175 lines, has 42 tetrises worth 998,400 points, and 7 burn lines worth slightly over 5,320, which gives predicted points of 1,003,720.

Actual points were 1,003,880.  Can I account for the 160 point discrepancy? Yes, 5,320 assumed all the burn lines were on level 18, but one of the line burns was at level 22, which gets us up to 1,003,880.  Fantastic.

So overall, the additional points are 5,480 from individual line clears, and 9,600 from level multiplier increases over the theoretical just 43 consecutive tetrises.

OK, I wonder if a lower theoretical maximum is possible, by clearing exactly two or three lines to bump up the tetris level multipliers.  Hmm...No, not quite.  I'm getting 998100 as the maximum score for 171 lines, so 172 is still looking like the minimum number of lines for a maxout.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 20, 2023, 11:25:14 PM
Competitive NES Tetris

So...I got on to thinking about starting level.

The starting level of 18 is often the starting level of choice for tournaments.  The starting level of 19 is sometimes chosen for some top end leagues.  Starting at level 19 is on paper just a benefit for theoretical max points (you get 140 lines until you transition to level 20, so it's the same number of total lines, but 5% higher score multiplier, woohoo).  In general the increased difficulty of 50% higher speed is not considered worth the 5% points increase.  Mostly when it does get picked, it gets picked either to challenge top level players a bit more, or to reduce playtime.

But what about starting at a lower level?  If you start at level 9, for example, you could have 190 levels before transitioning to level 19, instead of 130 levels.  Now, I mean, I imagine this wouldn't be allowed, but hypothetically if it was would it result in more points?

And the answer is no.

Theoretical level 19 transition assuming all tetrises starting at level...

9: 726,000 (100 lines to first transition)
10: 710,400 (100 lines to first transition)
11: 715,200 (100 lines to first transition)
12: 693,600 (100 lines to first transition)
13: 692,400 (100 lines to first transition)
14: 664,800 (100 lines to first transition)
15: 657,600 (100 lines to first transition)
16: 686,400 (110 lines to first transition)
17: 718,800 (120 lines to first transition)
18: 753,600 (130 lines to first transition)

And then for comparison, 132 lines, 33 tetrises starting on level 19 is 792,000 (which doesn't get you to level 20 of course, but it's the equivalent time of the level 19 transition).

What's interesting about this is the game design--seems like the developers on purpose tried to keep the total score of any starting level level 9 or above...not exactly the same but similar.

Anyway, I can certainly see why level 18 was picked historically.  Second highest theoretical max score, and considerably easier than starting at level 19.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 21, 2023, 11:11:09 PM
Competitive NES Tetris

So a few records I found on the current state of 29 play and 39+ play.  Both done in a practice mode that sets you straight into that speed, and not done in an actual match.  But maybe these show where the game might be heading.  Both set by Alex T.

First, 941,060 in the levels between 29-38 at "killscreen" speed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haceJKaSGNM

For comparison, the score you get by doing nothing but tetrises theoretically is 1,044,000, so like 90% of the theoretical max.  Someone in the comments mentioned only 14 burn lines out of 100 (everything else was tetrises).

Meanwhile, super killscreen play (again, in a practice environment not in a match) both setting up and getting one tetris, and (on a different run) surviving at the super killscreen speed for 20 lines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7x1WTYJ7Pc
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 25, 2023, 11:59:18 PM
Competitive NES Tetris

So...up to this point, a lot of the calculations are the theoretical score peak.

But we have these nice stats, so what is the score average?  And what does this actually mean for what percentage of line clears are Tetrises?

On level 18 speed (one descent every 3 frames)

The top 10 players going into level 19 have an average of 560k.

If we assume the average non-tetris line clear is a single, this corresponds most closely to a 71% tetris rate.

On level 19 speed (one descent every 2 frames)

The spreadsheet doesn't have specifically this stat (it has total score going into level 29).  But subtracting player's score going into level 29 from that same player's score going into 19 gives an average of 496k.  This corresponds most closely with a 60% tetris rate.

On level 29 speed (one descent every 1 frame)

Stats on this are very messy, but anecdotally I have heard people toss around stats like 30% tetris rate being considered currently very hittable.  And anecdotally if people successfully play aggressive successfully all the way till level 39, I expect them to gain somewhere in the ballpark of 500k from this level range.  A 35% tetris rate corresponds to 478k.  A 30% tetris rate corresponds to 435k.  Obviously people have hit much higher than this as a top score (Alex T hitting a 941k in a practice environment.  Fractal hitting 685k in a match).

But there are also some people hitting much lower--people getting all the way to 39 with a score of like 179k between 29-39.  (That's almost certainly 0% Tetris rate).  But the thing is, the scores of 179k are not necessarily because the player is incapable of hitting tetrises at this speed.  What often happens in the level 39 range is a "chasedown" situation, where one player dies early while they still have the score lead, and the other player has a "chase down situation".  If the player trying to catch up is close enough in score, the safest way to beat their score is to keep the board extremely low, clear single lines, not even attempting tetrises at the level 29 speed.

So people intentionally doing low scoring but safe clears in certain situations makes it hard to gauge where the skill level really is on average.

Anecdotally just looking through actual recent matches for games that went to 39, I think I see more games close to 400k than games at 500k+.  (400k is very likely not safe chasedown play).  400k would be like a 26% tetris rate.  There are also people who have a 500k score but don't even make it to level 39, top out at like...level 36 instead of level 39.  So playing presumably very aggressively but not in a way that will reliably use all the levels available.

So...my best guess for a sustainable tetris rate for top players in general at this speed is probably around 25% of line clears being tetrises, with maybe a few specific players being able to hit higher tetris rates without like...playing super high risk trying to swing for the fences.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 26, 2023, 06:47:46 AM
Math.  Specifically bases of number systems.

Now, to be clear, most of this is theoretical, because getting people to switch to another base in practical usage is even more obnoxious than teaching people the metric system who don't already know it.  It's more work than switching to metric, for frankly less benefit.

But I have just watched a relatively compelling video that argues that binary, with some proper adjustments for human use, is straight up the most efficient including for human calculation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDDaEVcwIJM

OK, one thing I'd like to go over here is this equation:

floor(log(base b)(n))*log(base b)(n) + log(b-1)

This is essentially an equation for how wasteful a number system is.  How much information needs to be parsed relative to how much information is conveyed by the number system.  So e.g. when you read the number 11, you need to parse two digits with 90 possible configurations, so that's somewhat inefficient given how small the number is.

By this measure, if we take this equation literally, basically smaller base is better across the board.

---

The key base that this compares base 2 to is base 6, and sometimes base 12, because apparently there's a notable base 6 movement on the internet (and also a base 12 movement on the internet).

But I would like to dive into base 6 for a moment, cause while a reasonable argument is presented that base 6 is not as good as binary, base 6 does have some neat properties.

Obviously a reason to pick base 6 is that 2 and 3 are the most important prime numbers, and you can divide by them easily in base 6.  But number system bases have this interesting property that they also deal with b+1 and b-1 well.

Just to use base 10 as an example, b-1 in base 10 is 9.  1/9 is a very simple repeating fraction 0.1111....  You can tell easily if something is divisible by 9 by adding up the digits and if they are divisible by 9 then the original number is divisible by nine.  Great.

And likewise, 11 is b+1 in base 10, and has some nice properties.  If the alternating sum (which is to say, add the first digit, subtract the second digit, add the third digit) etc is divisible by 11, then the original number is divisible by 11.  Take, for example 583.  3 - 8 + 5 = 0.  That's divisible by 11.  And 1/11 is also a reasonably well behaved repeating fraction.  0.090909....

This is true for any base.  In base n, you can tell whether something is divisible by n-1 by adding up the digits.  If the sum is divisible by n-1, then the original is divisible by n-1.  And the expansion of 1/(n-1) = 0.11111... (base n).  And likewise for n+1, the alternating sum trick works, and if k=n-1, the expansion of 1/(n+1) = 0.0k0k0k0k....

Well, for base 6, n-1 happens to land on 5, and n+1 happens to land on 7, the two most important primes.  So 5 base six, if you add up the digits and that's divisible by 5, the original number is divisible by 5, and 1/5 is 0.1111....  And likewise, 7 has the alternating sum property that 11 does in decimal, and has an expansion that 1/7 = 0.05050505....

That is actually a remarkably nice coincidence.

Base 6 does handle 11 quite poorly, however.  1/11 in base 6 is 0.03134524210313452421...  So a 10 digit repeating cycle.

Base 6 also handles 13 quite poorly.  1/13 in base 6 is 0.0243405312150243405312150...  So a 12 digit repeating cycle.

The base 2 video does make one argument I mildly disagree with though--that calculating 1/8 in base 6 requires figuring out stuff with 216.  Ehh...only if you're calculating in decimal first and then translating it to base 6.  If you were hypothetically thinking in base 6 already, it's pretty similar to calculating 1/8 in decimal.  Which is to say, you (probably) already know in decimal that 1/4 is 0.25, so you divide that by 2 and get 0.125.  Likewise, 1/8 in base 6, you probably would already know that 1/2 is 3, 1/4 is 0.13, and you divide that by 2 and get 0.03 + 0.013 = 0.043.  Just like 5^3 is 125 base 5, 3^3 is 43 base 6, so 0.043 represents 27/216, but at no point do you need to be thinking about 216.

---

I'd now like to take a little bit of time looking at base 12, which admittedly is less discussed in the video.

So the same properties for b+1 and b-1 are going to apply, which is to say that the numbers surrounding 12, 11 and 13, end up reasonably well behaved.  11 behaves like 9 in base 10.  13 behaves like 11 in base 10.  And that's decently good news because these are two relatively small primes.

But this comes at the cost of 5 and 7, which ends up behaving quite poorly.  1/5 in base 12 is 0.24972497....  Likewise, 1/7 in base 12 is 0.186A35186A35....  This is...not great, especially when you consider the higher informational density of base 12 digits.  If you're trying to memorize these, there's more possible values for each digit.  If you're trying to add or multiply these, the digits are harder to work with.

Now, obviously, 2, 3, and 4, very well behaved numbers in base 12.  But I'm curious, what happens if you take 1/9?  1/3 is 0.4, so 1/9 is 0.14.  1/27 is 0.054.  1/81 is 0.0194.  Obviously it's not a repeating decimal, but...also this feels kinda hard, like...harder than dividing by 5 in decimal.  In a way, dividing by 5 is like multiplying by 2, but here, dividing by 3 is like multiplying by 4 (base 12) and that's...my brain is chugging a little on something that should be pretty easy.

I guess for comparison, I should try the same thing with base 6 cause I'm equally unfamiliar with it.  1/3 = 0.2.  1/9 = 0.04.  1/27 = 0.012.  1/81 = 0.0024.  Yeah, ok, no, that feels a lot easier than in base 12.

Just based on which numbers it handles well, I'm not actually convinced that base 12 is better than base 10.  Base 12 certainly handles 3 better than base 10, but not enormously better.  Because 10 is adjacent to 9, and 9 = 3*3, base 10 handles 3 not like...that bad.  The repeating decimal is 0.333....  If you sum the digits and the result is divisible by 3, the original number was divisible by 3 etc.  Base 10 obviously handles 5 miles better.  Base 12 is way better at handling 13, and also better at handling dividing by powers of 2, but like...I'm not awestruck by base 12 at a glance.

---

So ok, the last point is less about actual pen and paper math, and more about spoken words and mental math (since mental math is often verbal, or at least it is for me).  This is a bit more in the realm of linguistics.

As good as binary is, nobody is going to say "one zero zero one" to say nine.  And they certainly aren't going to say the naming convention proposed in the binary video--like... "two one four two one" to represent fifteen?  Absolutely not.  I think the video takes a step in the right direction for a verbal version of this by having the verbal version being base 4, but I'm pretty sure base 4 is still going to be more syllables than humans want at least for short numbers like nine ("two four one" is three syllables, "nine" is one).

Worth noting that there have been scientific studies done that suggest people do mental math faster when the number of syllables in their number words are shorter.

So like...if your core number system is binary, I think having your verbal base be a power of that makes sense.  I think the answer is probably to go either base 8 or base 16, and I would lean base 16.

Conveniently, between English and French there are single syllable words for every number (except 14) from 1 to 16 already, so that might be a good starting point.

one, two, three, four, five, six, (sept), eight, nine, ten, (onze), twelve, (treze), ???, quinze, seize

But honestly I wonder if something a bit more like floating point arithmetic might work linguistically.

Like...you have a number representing a power of two exponent.  And then you have another number representing one hexadecimal digit in the fractional component.  So like...if the exponent digit is X, and the fractional hex digit is H, then you're looking at 2^X * 1.H as the approximation of the number.  And you would just say X and H.  This could in two syllables (assuming that in the language X and H are the only things vocalized) approximate a lot of numbers fairly accurately (within about a 5% error).  And obviously if you need more precision or bigger numbers you could go there.  Obviously for numbers 16 and below, you have names for those numbers, just say those.

Exponents might initially sound too advanced for language, but there's a lot of evidence that this is closer to how people think about numbers.  Like...babies can tell some numbers apart, they can tell 8 and 16 apart, but 7 and 8 look like the same number to them.  Human brains seem to be more inherently wired exponential than linear.  People in decimal will often just say the leading digit and the power of ten.  Like nine hundred chariots, two hundred donkeys.  Which is a form of this, although it doesn't work great, cause if the leading digit is a 1 you could be off by a huge amount and probably want to give two digits.

But if society already worked in binary, I think a linguistic version of "scientific notation"/"floating point arithmetic" might actually work quite well.

The accuracy issues of only using one digit name are basically entirely gone, cause the leading digit is always 1, and so you'd just give the digit after the period.  Certainly there is still some accuracy magnification for low values of H.  If your 1.H value is between 1.0 and 1.1 in hex, you do have a bigger error (0.031%) than if your 1.H value is between 1.E and 1.F (like a 0.017% error).  But these are all in the ballpark of the two sigma value that gets used a lot in scientific results--there aren't a lot of contexts where you'd need more precision than that.

And yeah, binary would be doing a lot of heavy lifting there.  Both by making order of magnitude a more precise tool, and also the fact that the leading digit is always 1 has obvious linguistic advantages cause you typically need to vocalize one less digit.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 26, 2023, 07:56:40 AM
Okay, so like...followup thoughts.

Thinking about doing floating point or scientific notation got me thinking...would it be all that different if you went fully logarithmic?

So like...instead of 2^X * 1.H, what if just 2^(X.H)?

Same total amount of information, but like...if you happened to think in binary, would it be easy to take a precise number and express it this way?  After all, that video was hyping up how square roots were not too bad to do by hand in binary.  Maybe logarithms get benefits like that too?  Or am I wishful thinking here.

One immediate benefit, of course, is that the error values between our digits are now exactly the same, definitionally due to the logarithmic scale.

So okay, I guess the first question is that if you just...can't figure out at all how to transform from a string of digits to the logarithm, and you're just lazy and pretend that both of these Hs are identical...how far off will you be?  And the answer is they're furthest off in the middle, and they're by about the lowest binary digit (so 1).  So an H of 6 in the float/scientific notation, so like...2^X * 1.6, is pretty close to H of 7, so 2^(X.7) in the fully logarithmic notation.  And then around 1.1 and 1.F you basically don't even need an adjustment, the linear and the logarithmic aren't perfectly lined up, but closest to each other.

So like...that's really not bad eh?  If someone is too lazy to convert, they're only inaccurate in the last binary digit

Obviously, obviously this is something that only works because binary.  Because we're just trying to get logarithms of numbers between 1 and 2, which makes the logarithm a much closer to linear function.  Don't try this on the leading digit in scientific base 10 notation.

Assuming we're thinking in hex, what do these numbers actually look like?  I'll provide two hex digits of accuracy to give a feel for the amount of error/adjustment, and I'll round to the nearest.

H values, going from a digit string to an exponential, values in hexadecimal of course, so like 8 is half.

1.1 -> 1.16
1.2 -> 1.2C
1.3 -> 1.3F
1.4 -> 1.52
1.5 -> 1.64
1.6 -> 1.76
1.7 -> 1.86
1.8 -> 1.96
1.9 -> 1.A5
1.A -> 1.B3
1.B -> 1.C1
1.C -> 1.CF
1.D -> 1.DC
1.E -> 1.E8
1.F -> 1.F4

So like...just as a quick and dirty conversion, just subtract 0.1 unless you are one away from the very edges (0.1 or 0.F) and bam, you've got a pretty good approximate conversion for going from an approximate float scientific notation to a full logarithm.

What about the other way around, starting with the logarithm and working back to get the binary digits?

1.1 -> 1.0B
1.2 -> 1.17
1.3 -> 1.23
1.4 -> 1.30
1.5 -> 1.3E
1.6 -> 1.3C
1.7 -> 1.4B
1.8 -> 1.6A
1.9 -> 1.7A
1.A -> 1.8B
1.B -> 1.9C
1.C -> 1.AF
1.D -> 1.C2
1.E -> 1.D5
1.F -> 1.EA

Yeah, unsurprisingly, the same approximation works pretty well in reverse.  -0.1 on the H value, unless you have an H value right at the edge (1 or F).

So...okay, that seems like relatively a success at least as a mathematical idea that might be translatable into language.

This all jumped out of a linguistic tangent, so I mean, the one thing I wonder about is whether full logarithmic notation would ever be sufficiently intuitive for common language used by common people.  But the fact that the float/scientific notation language would be so similar means I guess it's fine either way.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 26, 2023, 11:00:45 AM
More number bases.

OK so...base 3.

For some reason, people who think they can measure the value of a base with equations a bunch of them seem to have zeroed in on 3 as maybe on paper the best base.  Nobody seems to actually believe that, and I think that moreso just points out a flaw with their calculations.

But...what does base 3 look like?  Is it as bad as I'm assuming?

OK so...first observation, b+1 and b-1, in this case they are 2 and 4.  This...isn't great.  Ideally you would like to have an easy time with two different primes, the way base 6 gets 5 and 7, or base 10 gets 3 and 11, or base 12 gets 11 and 13.  But 4 being 2 squared this is kinda just...redundant.

Now I mean, you also get information on the square.  Like...base 2 has a hidden base 4 inside of it, meaning it gets information on 5 being 4+1.  And also has a hidden base 8 inside of it, meaning it gets information on 7.

And 3 is small enough that this is actually relevant.  So 3^2 is 9.  The adjacent numbers are...8, which is once again not useful, and...10.  Which is maybe useful?  At least it's not another power of 2.  Maybe this translates into divisors of 5?

Let's see, so the rule is, thinking about it in base 9, the alternating sum if it's divisible by 10 the original number is divisible by 10.  Does this mean the same thing for 5?  Umm...hmm...

So here's basically the proof behind this functionality

(b+1) = k

b = k-1

xb^2 + yb + z

x(k^2 - 2k +1) + y(k-1) + z

And all of that is divisible by k except a remaining x - y + z.

OK cool.

So what if it's instead

(b +1) = 2k

b = 2k-1

x(4k^2 - 4k +1) + y(2k-1) + z

Yeah, the same logic still works.  All the stuff divisible by k is still divisible by k here, and so the remaining alternating sum if that is divisible by 5, the overall number is divisible by 5.

So this probably does mean there is some value too in 3^3 being 27 (gets us access to 28 and 26, which should give us maybe mildly useful information on the primes 7 and 13).

OK, lets look at some decimal expansions

Starting with the ones that will be painful of course.

1/2 = 0.11111...

1/4 = 0.020202...

I mean, they're not terrible being 3-1 and 3+1, and like binary just counting number of digits is a bit misleading, cause you could easily mentally clump these into base 9, where 1/2 would be 0.44444... and 1/4 would be 0.2222....  But you know, still a bit jarring seeing 2 not being the easiest possible divisor.

1/5 = 0.012101210...

So yeah, I mean, caveats about this being easily digestable small digits and thinking about base 9 this would be 0.171717....  But this still is not ideal.  I kind of thought that since there was a somewhat nice divisibility test that this would be a non maximal repeating sequence.

I guess it's a bit more clear when we look at 1/10

1/10 = 0.002200220022...

And it's not too hard to see how 22+22 becomes 121 base 3.

Alright next up...

1/7 = 0.010212010212....

So...once again there's a divisibility test using 27.  You would think about it in base 27, and then do alternating sums.  But once again this isn't really all that nice as a decimal expansion.  So let's again look at 1/28 to figure out what's going on here...

1/28 = 0.000222000222....

OK, that is fairly nice.  And then...how does this work...11 * 222 (base 3) = 2220 + 222 = 10212.  Yeah, ok, sure, I guess?

Alright, next prime...

1/11 = 0.0021100211...

OK, huh, that's kind of not as bad as I thought?  Ohh, ok, I see what's going on here.  3^5 = 243.  242 is divisible by 11.  (Divisible by 11 squared in fact).  So that's why it repeats after 5 digits and not 10.

1/13 = 0.002002002002...

Nice, ok, this is actually pretty solid.  Obviously because 26 is 27-1.  I'm definitely noticing that the b-1 identity seems to lead to a bit nicer at least in terms of repeat length than the b+1 identity.

---

Mmm...like...I think being a small number is doing some heavy lifting here, but there's very few coincidences that jump out where I really think "oh that's unexpectedly nice".

Obviously it's excellent at dealing with 3.  It's not awful at dealing with 2, just due to being 3-1 (and 4 being 3+1, and 8 being 9-1) but most serious base suggestions are divisible by 2 so it's still probably at a disadvantage with the most used prime.  Both 5 and 7 having a relatively friendly divisibility tests is fairly nice, but their decimal expansions are fairly meh.  13 is handled surprisingly well, both in terms of a fairly nice divisibility test, and a fairly short repeat pattern.  11...I'm not overly impressed with the interaction with 3^5=243 being one more than 242, just seems like 5 is a fairly large exponent, but it does keep the repeat pattern nicer than it could have been.

Longest repeat of a prime up through 13 is 6 long (for the expression of 1/7).  6 long in base 3 being the equivalent in terms of information of something like a 4 long repeat in decimal.

I mean, ok, yeah, it's like...probably fine.  Other than 3s there's not a lot of numbers it handles fantastically, but there's also not a lot of just huge misses.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 26, 2023, 06:55:57 PM
More number bases.

OK, so let's try to deliberately pick a bad number base.  Let's go with base 7, everyone says that'll be bad, cause it's prime!  And not small like 3!

7-1 is 6, so it has fairly easy divisibility tests for both 2 and 3.  (Add up the digits, see if it's divisible).

7+1 is 8, so you can check divisibility by up to 8 in terms of powers of 2 fairly easily.

1/2 = 0.3333...

1/3 = 0.2222...

1/4 = 0.1515...

1/5 = 0.12541254...

1/6 = 0.1111...

So I mean, yeah, 5 isn't great.  There is a divisibility test cause 7^2 = 49, and 49+1 = 50, which also means that 50 has a fairly nice repeat, and 1/25 is not nightmarish or anything.

1/50 = 0.00660066...

1/25 = 0.01650165...

No obvious divisibility test jumping out at me.  I mean, technically we can jerry rig the b-1 formula a bit

n = (b-2)

b = (n+2)

xb^2 + yb + z

Which is going to simplify down to stuff that divides into 5, and then a remainder that is 4x + 2y + z.  So like...instead of adding the digits, you first multiply the higher digits by powers of 2 relative to their place value, and then you add them.  Is that actually helpful or convenient?  Ehh...nobody I've talked to does the equivalent with 7 in base 10, like nobody for digits x,y,z does 9x+3y+z.  Like...take a random number divisible by 7, 924.  I could do that, or I could just divide cause I know 91 = 7*13, so I can subtract 910, and hey look 14 is left over.  Whereas this trick is like...81+6+4, which gets me to 91, which...yeah, ok, that didn't really save me anything.

However, powers of 2 are a lot nicer than powers of 3--it's just that the 10-2 number is 8, so no help is needed.  And notably in base 7, you can go up to at least 2^3=8 quite comfortably, because of the nice properties of being adjacent to 7.  So like...maybe checking divisibility by 5 in base 7 is a bit nicer than checking divisibility by 7 in base 10?  That's not like...super high praise or anything, but maybe 5 isn't the worst in base 7.

What about the next few primes?

1/11 = 0.04311623550431162355...

1/13 = 0.035245631421035245631421...

Well, these look pretty bad.  Any divisibility tests?  Um...not up through 3 digits.

And then obviously 7 is handled well.

---

So ok, yeah, I mean, it's kinda bad.  But it doesn't look ultra miserable or anything.  It looks like you can't realistically make a base where dealing with 2 or 3 is actually super messy--even if you don't divide b directly, you will divide b-1 or b+1 (or both if you are 2).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 26, 2023, 09:42:33 PM
You know, I might be underselling base 7.

7^2 is 49.  49-1 is 48.

This means 1/48 is actually surprisingly nice under base 7.

1/48 = 0.01010101...

making dividing by up to 48 or any of its divisors like 12, 24 surprisingly not really all that bad.  And remarkably arguably nicer than doing it in decimal

Likewise, I already knew that dividing by 8 would be easy because it's 7+1, but dividing by 16 is pretty nice as well.

1/16 = 0.03030303...

But the other interesting thing is b+1.  See, while dividing b+1 is not as nice, multiplying by it is a bit nicer than b-1.  You can see this in base 10.  Multiplying by 9 isn't too nice, but multiplying by 11 is reasonably nice.  22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99.

And in base 7 what is b+1?  It's 8.

So the powers of 2 in base 7 are...

1
2
4
11
22
44
121
242
514
1331
2662
5654
14641

This is kind of surprisingly nice, like...if you're paying attention you'll recognize 1, 11, 121, 1331, 14641 as the first five rows of pascal's triangle.  Which, of course, is true of powers of 11 in base 10, but nobody really cares about powers of 11.  But people do care about powers of 2, and unironically powers of 2 here have a nicer pattern in base 7 than base 10, at least up to 2^12 (14641 base 7 is 4096 base 10).

How about base 12, like...man, that's a base divisible by 4, does that make powers of 2 nice in the base?

1
2
4
8
14
28
54
A8
194
368
714
1228
2454

And stopping at the same point (2^12)

Hmm...I mean, there is one nice thing here, which is that the last digit cycles between 4 and 8.  This is a 2 cycle, compared to the 4 cycle in base 10 (2 4 8 6) and the 3 cycle in base 7 (2 4 1).  But otherwise there isn't a particularly pretty pattern that jumps out to me about these; it would probably just be memorization like in decimal.

What about base 6, how do powers of 2 look there?

1
2
4
12
24
52
144
332
1104
2212
4424
13252
30544

And once again stopping in the same place (2^12).

Like...yeah, I mean, the same way in base 7 multiples of 8 look a lot like multiples of 11 in base 10, likewise these look a bit more like multiples of 12, but the pattern is just noised out much earlier--the last number that looks like it's following the pattern of 12 is 144.  Like base 12 it does have a nice pattern of the final digit alternating between 2 and 4, which is a 2-cycle.

So...huh, like...base 7 surprisingly is like...actually maybe kinda not that bad.  Like...not a super top tier base or anything, but probably not too bad compared to, let's say base 10.  Like...nicer powers of 2, and an easier time dividing by 48, and obviously deals with 7 way better in exchange for being worse at dealing with 5 and 11.  That...might not even be that bad of a tradeoff.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 27, 2023, 12:55:51 AM
OK, well, with base 7 not being too bad, how about base 5?

Well...no 5^2-1 is going to be 24, so like base 7 it's able to relatively easily deal with stuff like 1/24 = 0.010101....

1/7 unsurprisingly is kinda meh.

1/7 = 0.032412032412...

But overall probably going to be fairly solid.

What about base 11?

Well, guess what, it's got easy divisibility tests for 2, 3, and 5, and 11^2 - 1 = 120, so 1/120 in base 11 is 0.010101....  This also means any divisors of 120 also have reasonably comfortable repeat patterns.

And...7, surprisingly is not as bad as you might think in base 11.

1/7 = 0.136136...

This can be traced back to 11^3-1, which is 1330, which is 2x5x7x19

Alright, so...13?  Is this actually the first truly bad base?

Well, 13-1 is 12.  So like...

1/12 = 0.111...

1/2 = 0.666...

1/3 = 0.444...

1/4 = 0.333...

And guess what, 13+1 = 14.  So base 13 handles 7 reasonably well as well.

1/7 = 0.1B1B1B...

5 is pretty bad in base 13 though.

1/5 = 0.27A527A5

11 is pretty bad in base 13 as well.

1/11 = 0.12495BA83712495BA837...
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 28, 2023, 12:03:09 AM
More thinking about number bases.

So...ok, I was reacting with surprise that all these prime numbers, when you square them and subtract 1 you get a number divisible by 24, so dividing by 24 is fairly easy in every prime base so far.

Turns out that's just a rule  That's true for every prime (other than 2 and 3).  Consider...

p^2 - 1 = (p+1)(p-1)

Since there is a number divisible by 3 once every 3, and since p is not divisible by 3, one of p+1 or p-1 is divisible by 3.

Both p+1 and p-1 by definition are divisible by 2.  Because they are two consecutive even numbers, this ALSO means one of them is divisible by 4.

Therefore (p+1)(p-1) will always be divisible by 2*4*3 = 24.

---

OK, so there's one other interesting observation I had.

I started looking at factorials, and how factorials look in various bases.  This is actually the first time I've been impressed with base 12, cause, take 10 factorial, for example, it's got 2 * 4 * 2 * 8 * 2 (from 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10) = 2^8.  And it's got 3 * 3 * 9 (from 3, 6 and 9) which is 2^4.  So we end up with four leading zeroes, and then just 5*5*7.  (Which in base 12 is like...127

And I started wondering if this is a general property.  Like if you take factorial(x) will you in general have roughly twice as many 2s and 3s in the divisor.  And......the answer is actually yes.  Let's go through a proof.

So...every second number is divisible by 2.  So that's one two for every 2 numbers, 1/2.

But also, every fourth number is divisible by 4, which means divisible by an extra 2.  So there's an extra 2 for every 4 numbers, add 1/4 density.

And so on and so forth.  divisible by 8 numbers add another two in every 1/8 numbers.

Which gives us...

1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 ....

But we know the formula for

1 + a + a^2 ... = 1/(1-a)

Therefore on average the density of 2s is

1/2 * (1/(1-1/2) = 1

There is on average 1 two divisor in every number.

And in general for any number this will be

1/n * (1/(1-1/n)) = 1/n * (n/(n-1)) = 1/(n-1)

So for example, for 3 we get a density of 1/2

On average the density of 3 prime factors is once every two numbers.

For 5 we get 1/4.  There is a 5 prime factor once every four numbers

For 7 we get 1/6.  There is a 7 prime factor once every six numbers.

So the next base up that would get all the ratios right for factorials after base 12 would be 2^4 * 3^2 * 5^1 = 720.  Yep, base 720, that would be uhh...large.  Incidentially 720 is also 6 factorial.

---

OK, one last observation.

I've been discussing how b+1 has special properties, the number expressed as "11" in any base, and this stems partially from the fact that (b+1)*(b-1) = b^2 - 1.

But there's another equation like that.

b^3 - 1 = (b-1)*(b^2+b+1)

So like "111" should have some special properties too.  Only going to be relevant for smaller bases, but lets see if I can figure this out.

Um...yeah, so divisibility test...just replace your b^3 with b^3 - 1 right?  So we have 999, which we know is divisible by 111, so we're left with a +1 three digits over.

So for a six digit number cdefgh, we can reduce this to a three digit number (f+c)(g+d)(h+e), and then if that is divisible by 111 then you are good.  And then for digits 7-9 you end up adding.

Hmm...this is still a bit disappointing, though as a trick, cause we need to do 3 digit addition and subtraction.  With 11 we got to do single digit addition.  Can I not reduce this at least to double digit somehow?

k = b^2 + b + 1

b^2 = k - b - 1

xb^2 + yb + z = k + (y-x)b + (z-x)

OK, so we take the leading digit, and subtract it from the first two digits.

Um...is this even useful?  OK, let me try a base 10 example, just multiply a random number by 111, get 264573717

So 9 digit number, let's reduce this to a 3 digit number

front digit: 2+5+7 = 14
middle digit: 6+7+1 = 14
final digit: 4+3+7 = 14

And then...well yeah, that's divisible by 111.  And if you subtract the front digit from the other two, you get 00.

OK, I mean, that actually doesn't seem so bad as a divisibility test.

And obviously 1/111 has a reasonably nice repeat pattern.  0.009009...

OK, I guess for small bases at least we should take a look at the "111" number to see if it's anything highly useful.

2: 111 is 7.  But it's also 8-1 so yeah, already knew binary handled 7 well.
3: 111 is 13.  OK yes, we did previously establish that 13 divides fairly nice in base 3.
4: 111 is 21.  I mean, 21 not a super important number, but an additional freebie for base 2 essentially.  Base 2 already handles 3 and 7 reasonably nicely, but I guess it wasn't guaranteed to combine them nicely, so yeah, there you go, 1/21 has a nice simple pattern too.
5: 111 is 31.  Eh, it's a prime.  Not a very useful prime.
6: 111 is 43.  Also a prime.  Also not a very useful prime.
7: 111 is 57.  19*3.  Also not very nice or useful.
8: 111 is 73.  Again, mostly just some free bonuses for base 2.  But...not the most useful prime.
9: 111 is 91.  7*13.  Nothing really new.  Base 3 already handles 13 well, and this is so large compared to 7 so it's not even that big of a help.  Although I guess it does let you reduce the divisibilty test of 7 to a...two digit number base 9 (four digit number base 3).  Eh...better than nothing I guess.
10: 111 is 111.  3*37.  Meh.  Base 10 is already decent at handling 3, and handling 37 is just not that helpful.
11: 111 is 133.  7*19.  Well, ok, this is probably one of the reasons why 1/7 is not so bad in base 11.  This should also mean that 1/19 is not so bad in base 11.
12: 111 is 157.  A mediocre prime.
13: 111 is 183.  3*61.  Eh, nah, 13 already has much easier ways to test for 3.
14: 111 is 211.  Not a very useful prime.

Wow, ok, well, the identity exists, but it's mostly not very useful because 111 is always odd in every base, and often just a large rarely used prime, or something the base can already handle some easier way.

And it's a bit redundant looking at 1111, because 1111 in every base = 101*11.  Numbers I typically already do look at.

Actually, something that's jumping out at me as a little weird is that none of these are divisible by 5.  In fact, let me check...yeah, out to 40 none of these are divisible by 5.  None of these are divisible by 11 either.  We see 3, 7, 13, 19.  None of these are divisible by 17.  None of these are divisible by 23.  What the heck?  What is this pattern?

---

OK, let's look at 5, and specifically mod 5.

1^2 = 1

2^2 = 4

3^2 = 4

4^2 = 1

f(x) = x^2 + x + 1

f(1) = 3

f(2) = 2

f(3) = 3

f(4) = 1

Well that proves that it will never happen for 5, but what's the pattern here?  Let's look at mod(11).

1^2 = 1

2^2 = 4

3^2 = 9

4^2 = 5

5^2 = 3

6^2 = 3

7^2 = 5

8^2 = 9

9^2 = 4

10^2 = 1

Mmm...well I can see that none of these work, but I'm not seeing the pattern.  Maybe try reframing this as f(x) = x*(x+1)

f(0) = 0

f(1) = 2

f(2) = 6

f(3) = 1

f(4) = 9

f(5) = 8

f(6) = 9

f(7) = 1

f(8) = 6

f(9) = 2

f(10) = 0

So I mean, hmm, I notice it's symmetrical.  Every number happens twice.  f(1) = f(11-2).  f(2) = f(11-3).  Is this always true?

f(x) = f(k-x) mod(k)?

x(x+1) = (k-x)(k-x-1)?

We can cancel out the k stuff since that will disappear out the modulo.  So we're left with

x^2 + x = x^2 + x

So ok yes, only half of the values will get used up.

OK, let's look at some primes where this does work.

3 works cause 1*2+1 = 3

7 works cause 2*3+1 = 7

13 works cause 3*4+1 = 13

19 works...why does 19 work?  Hmm...let's look at the modulo.

f(1) = 2

f(2) = 6

f(3) = 12

f(4) = 1

f(5) = 11

f(6) = 4

f(7) = 18

19 works because 7*8 = 56.  and 57 = 19*3.

23 doesn't work.

29 doesn't work.

31 works cause 5*6+1 = 31.

37 works because of 10*11+1.

43 works because of 6*7+1 = 43.

What the hell is this sequence?  It's not alternating every second prime or anything?  Hmm...searching for this sequence specifically, it seems to be this sequence:

https://oeis.org/A007645

"Generalized cuban primes: primes of the form x^2 + xy + y^2"

or primes == 0 or 1 (mod 3)

So...yes "primes of the form x^2 + xy + y^2", that's basically my equation there, just with y=1, so this very much looks like the right track.

3, 7, 13, 19, 31, 37, 43, 61, 67, 73, 79, 97, 103

Testing up to 103, yes, all of these work.

On them being 1 mod 3...so...other than 2 and 3, all primes are of the form 6m+1 or 6m-1.  Somehow all of the 6m+1 primes work for this, and all of the 6m-1 primes do not.  Can I figure out why...?

Hmm...well anecdotally I do notice that x(x+1) is often divisible by 6.  2*3 = 6.  3*4 = 12.  5*6 = 30.  6*7 = 42.

OK, so for starters, the ones in this sequence that aren't divisible by 6, like 4*5 = 20.  1*2 = 2.  7*8 = 56.  I notice that when you add one to these they seem to be divisible by 3.  (3, 21, 57).  Is this always true?  (3k+1)(3k+2)+1 = (3k)^2 + 3(3k) + 3.  Yes, this is always true.  n^2 + n will always either be divisible by 6, or when it's not divisible by 6, n^2+n+1 is divisible by 3 (and thus not prime unless it's 3).

So that explains why n^2+n+1 can sometimes be a prime of the form 6m+1 and never be a prime of the form 6m-1.  But how do we handle the cases where we need modulo rollover like 19?

n^2+n needs to be 18 (mod 19)

We find our answer in the form of 7*8 = 56 = 18 (mod 19).

Hmm...ok, so we roll over twice mod 19, and every time we roll over, we take -1 relative to if we just rolled with 18.  So in this case we end up with -2.  Since we're in a funny case of n where n is not divisible by 3, that means n^2+n+1 is divisible by 3, which by extension means n^2+n-2 is divisible by 6.

So ok, in the case where one of our multipliers is 3, and the modulo prime is of the form 6m+1, we will get n^2+n lining up with 6m+1.  And all multipliers higher than this that we know of so far are of the form 6m+1, so you would roll all the way around.

What about an opposite case, a prime of the form 6m-1.  Let's just take 17.  We know that n^2+n+1 will never be 17, and we can similarly show that there will never be a multiple like 7 which allows 17 to work, as we will roll the modulo function exactly 6 times and be back to numbers that are only divisible by 3 or 6, and you can't add one to those to get a number of the form 6m-1.  But what about the case of 3 being the only other divisor?

So we're looking for a reason why 3*(6m-1) can never be equal to n(n+1)+1 with 6m-1 being prime

We obviously need n(n+1) to not be divisible by 3 so that adding 1 to it will make it divisible by 3.  So we've got n(n+1) = (3k+1)(3k+2) = 9k^2 + 9k + 2.  And then we add 1 to get n(n+1)+1.

Divide both sides by 3.

Which leaves us with 6m-1 = 3k^2+3k + 1

Moving the -1 to the other side we have

6m = 3k^2+3k +2

But that right side is definitely not divisible by 3.

OK cool, well, I don't know how to prove that all primes 6m+1 have a solution, but I am at least convinced primes of the form 6m-1 can never be one of the divisors.

Anyway, so yeah, longwinded way of showing 111 in every base will often be kinda not very useful, and can only have prime factors in the form of 3 and 6m+1.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 28, 2023, 02:01:55 AM
Number bases.

You know, a few things occur to me.

I'll just use base 10 for familiarity.  Which is to say 9 is the highest digit, but replace 9 with the appropriate largest digit for any other base and the same thing holds true.

The 1/11 having a repeating decimal of 2 and having a divisibility test is in some ways just an extension of these properties on 99.

1/99 = 0.010101...

Therefore 1/11 = 0.090909...

Divisibility tests of 11 work in large part because divisibility tests of 99 work.

Likewise for 111, 1/111 = 0.009009009... because 1/999 = 0.001001001...

Divisibility tests for 111 are largely enabled by divisibility tests of 999.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 28, 2023, 10:48:44 PM
So...I was coming up with a list of tests to do on bases.  A few of the tests I was going to do is 1/24 (dividing by number of hours in a day) 1/60 (dividing by minutes in hour or seconds in minute).  I kind of wrote-off doing 1/365, though.  Like...what base is going to handle that well?  That's like...5*73.  Are there any bases that are going to handle dividing by 73 well?

Well, guess what?  73 is a prime of the form 6m+1.  Base 8 unironically hanldes dividing by 73 quite well, cause 111 in base 8 is 73.  365 in base 8 is 555.

1/73 = 0.007007007... (base 8)

Although sure, we still have to divide that by 5, and dividing by 5 might be an adventure.

And like look, 365 is one of the few numbers we can't change.  60 and 24, like honestly, if we can imagine a world where humans switch to a different number base, we could also imagine a world where humans come up with metric time.  (Or I guess "new metric" using the new number base).  But 365?  That's pretty close to a fundamental constant if you live on earth.

So okay, is 1/365 nice in...octal or binary or quaternary or one of those?

Ehh...not particularly.

Here it is in base 4.

1/365 = 0.000023032030332123000023032030332123...

So it repeats every...36 binary digits, 18 quaternary digits, should be 12 octal digits, let's glance at that.

1/365 = 0.001316147633001316147633...

And sure, let's look at the hexadecimal repeating every 9 digits.

1/365 = 0.00B38CF9B00B38CF9B...

I'll be honest, this didn't turn out as nice as I hoped.

1/73 repeats every 9 binary digits, 1/5 repeats every 4 binary digits, so I think the maximum the two of them combined can repeat is 36, but we hit the max.

BUT, the good news is if you have to divide a number by 365 AND your number happens to be divisible by 5, you've got a relatively pretty expansion.

Are there any other number bases with a good handling of 1/365?

Let's try base 3.

0.000001222221000001222221...

What the heck?  That's so nice.  Way nicer than the binary.  What's going on?

Oh I see.

3^6 = 729

729+1 = 730.  730 = 365*2.

1/730 in base 3 of course would be

0.000000111111000000111111

Beautiful.

In fact, let's take a look at this in base 9.

1/730 = 0.000888000888...

1/365 = 0.001887001887...

Wow, ok, that's probably the winner.

In fact that's almost certainly the winner, cause it's very very approximateable.

In base 9 you can just write 1/365 ~= 0.002, and you'll be very close to right.  (You're approximating 1/730 ~= 1/729).

Alright base 5...got anything?  Doesn't look like it.  Obviously base 5 can handle divided by 5 just fine, but at a glance 1/73 looks like trash in the base (Looks like my spreadsheet runs out of precision before it repeats).

Base 6...again, doesn't look like 73 is nicely behaved.

Base 7...73 looks to be misbehaving.

base 10...seems like one of the better ones...relatively speaking?

1/73 = 0.0136986301369863...

Ah yep 10001 = 137*73.

1/365 = 0.00273972602739726

It's an 8 digit repeat, which is technically a "bit better" than base 2/4/8/16.  Unless of course the number you are dividing by 365 happens to be divisible by 5, in which case you get a relatively nice repeat.  I would call this third overall.

Base 11...1/73 doesn't seem to have a nice repeat.

Base 12...1/73 doesn't seem to have a nice repeat.

Base 13...1/73 doesn't seem to have a nice repeat.

Base 14...1/73 doesn't seem to have a nice repeat.

Base 15...1/73 doesn't seem to have a nice repeat.

Well, there you go.  An operation where base 10 is objectively the third best base.  Better than base 6, better than base 12.

In summary:

(https://i.imgur.com/HlSD5Rw.png)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 29, 2023, 01:32:52 AM
So...I was thinking about...

I find myself thinking about 1/7 pretty often, and almost never find myself thinking about 1/11, say.  Is there a reason for that?  And yeah, there is, of course there is.  It's pi.  3+1/7 is a very well known approximation for pi.

And that got me thinking...using pi in base 7 is probably awesome.  You can approximate it as 3.1 and be very accurate.

So...what other bases approximate pi well?

So the binary base family...It's fairly nice in base 8, actually.

3.1103755

You could do 3.1 as an approximation, and obviously it's not as good as 3.1 in base 7, but it's pretty good.  And if you want to do more accuracy you can do 3.11, and you end up with...about as much accuracy as 1/7.  Both are slightly under a 1% error  Technically 9/64 is a 0.69% error, and 1/7 is a 0.89% error, so 9/64 is a bit closer.  But like...you do need an extra digit to get there.

In Base 3

It's...

10.01021101222

So I mean, yeah, the first obvious cutoff approximation would be 10.01.  So approximating the tail as 1/9.  Unsurprisingly this isn't great, like a 27% error on the tail, and worse than 1/8.  But the second cutoff is not super appealing either.  10.010211.  So approximating the tail as uh...103/729.  Which is accurate to 0.2%, but you're using 6 digits to get there (or 3 digits base 9) that's not very impressive.  I guess you could try rounding up  the 211 sequence to 1000, so like approximating it as 10.011.  This gives it to within a 4.6% error, which is ehh still not impressive.

In Base 5

3.0323221430

LMAO.  Yeah, ok all these 2s and 3s, almost precisely in the middle of the base; can't easily round up or truncate.  But what if...what if we look at 2 pi?  That should cancel out a bunch of 2s and 3s surely.

11.120144

OK, that is not bad, we could truncate after the .12.  That gets us to a 1.14% error on the tail.  OK, not too bad.

In Base 6

3.05033

Oh that looks pretty nice actually.  Truncate at the five and...1.9% error.  Error's a bit higher, but dealing with a 0 is fairly nice for multiplication.

In Base 7

3.0663651

Yeah, everyone act surprised, base 7 is good at handling pi.  0.89% accuracy with one digit!  The one thing I will say is that it's only particularly good at the 3.1 approximation.  The next approximation down worth considering would be like .0664, which is four digits instead of 1, and gives an accuracy you would expect out of four digits 0.01%.

In Base 10

3.14159

I mean, yeah, you truncate it to 3.14.  It's accurate to about 1.14% on the tail.  Basically the same error as base 5, but base 10 digits being bigger end up a bit harder to multiply and contain more info.

In Base 11

3.161507

Yeah, you would take 3.16 obviously.  It's mildly more accurate than base 10, 0.78% error.  But still not great for two digits of this size.

In Base 12

3.184809

Gross.  I mean, if you're happy with taking a four digit approximation, sure, but...otherwise 4 and 8 are very middle digits for base 12.  Well...I guess I should try the thing I did with base 5, right?  Look at the 2pi.

6.349417

Nope.  There's just nothing here.  Pi seems fairly hopeless in base 12.

In Base 13

3.1AC10

Ok obviously you round that up to 3.1B.  Which is...honestly pretty solid (0.29% error; I believe lowest we've gotten with two digits, though digits are getting larger now so that's not a super fair comparison).  If you really wanted to be lazy, 3.2 is about an 8.6% error, but it's one digit of course.

In Base 14

3.1DA75CD

I mean, yeah, act surprised, Base 14 can do the same thing base 7 can.  You approximate it as 3.2, which gives you an accuracy to 0.89%, and if you want more accuracy than that bust out a calculator cause there's no other good cutoff points.

In Base 15

3.21CD1DC

I mean, you would just use 3.2 surely.  One digit, accurate to about 6%.  If you needed more than that you'd use 3.22.  Accurate to about 0.44%.

---

So okay, I wondered if we would hit any other good approximations, but it doesn't seem like it.  Looking at the continuing fraction, the best approximations are 3, 22/7, 333/106, 355/113, 103993/33102, and yeah, 106 has 53 as a factor, none of these bases are good at handling that.  113 is a prime. 

So anyway:

Coming up with a formula where I take the log base 2 of the base, multiply by number of digits, and compare to the log base 2 of the error

#1: base 7 (score: 4.0)

#2: base 14 (score: 3.0)

#3: base 5* (score: 1.8)

#4: base 2** family: (score: 1.2)

#5: base 13: (score: 1.0)

#6: base 6: (score: 0.5)

#7: base 11: (score: 0.1)

#8: base 15: (score: 0)

#9: base 10: (score: -0.2)

#10: base 3 family: (score: -0.3)

#11: base 12***: (score: -1)

*Obviously base 5 does have the problem that it only represents 2pi particularly well, and struggles a lot with representing pi.  You can divide by 2 of course, but dividing by 2 is not completely trivial base 5.

**The best performing one in the base 2 family was two digits of base 8.  One digit of base 8...well no it turns out 3+1/8 is not a particularly special approximation of pi; that got a score of roughly 0.  Which admittedly is still a better score than some bases can drum up.

***The best performing one in base 12 without using more than 2 digits was to just suck it up use one digit and approximate it as 3.2.  Which admittedly is not as bad as approximating pi as 3.1 in base 10 (score of -2).

A few random observations.

Base 7 and 14 are monstrously good.  Base 2 (and it's family, specifically base 8) are the best among the popular bases.  And if you're lazy and just want to approximate it as 3.1 (base 8) that's also honestly not even bad, some bases actually do worse.  Base 12 being the literal worst base is very funny (remember, I'm not doing base 1, and I'm counting base 2, 4, 8, 16 together, and counting bases 3 and 9 together, so #11 is the lowest possible rank).  I don't quite know how to process base 5, has the third best approximation, but only of 2pi, don't ask it to divide by 2.  Base 6 is pretty good, which I guess should be expected since it is good at dividing 7.  1/7 base 6 = 0.0505....  That's probably also why base 13 is good, because 1/14 base 13 = 0.0C0C, and similarly for base 15.  And also explains why base 8 works so well, of course, because 1/7 is also easy base 8.  Are there any other bases good at dividing by 7?  Hmm...none that immediately jump to mind.  Base 3 being as bad as it is is a bit of a surprise--I would expect lower bases because they have more stopping points to be able to pick better cutoff points, but I guess it just doesn't really work out well in base 3.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 29, 2023, 08:12:00 AM
Alright, lets rate basses on how they handle 1/60.  Seems like the more interesting one than 1/24, since base 6 and base 12 don't automatically pass it, and all the prime bases don't automatically handle it well either.

Base 2 (family)

1/60 = 0.000001000100010001...

I guess probably hexadecimal will show this most clearly

1/60 = 0.04444444...

Obviously what's going on here is that 15 = 16-1, so it divides very cleanly, and then you divide by 4, which is trivial in binary.

But there's also a nice bonus here, in that if you are very lazy you can just do 1/64 as an approximation, and that's just completely free in binary.

Base 3

1/60 = 0.0001100110011...

This is certainly a case where being base 3 over base 9 is helpful, despite the obvious base 9 pattern.

What you're seeing here is that in base 9:

1/20 = 0.040404....

But divide that by 3 and it's a bit less clear what's going on, once again in base 9:

1/60 = 0.013131313...

And obviously this all comes from 9^2 = 81.  81-1 = 80.  So 80 divides relatively nicely in base 9, plus 3 divides for free.

Base 5

0.002020202...

Alright, actually quite good honestly.  Base 5 gets 1/24 fairly cheaply being a prime base, and then also gets 1/5 for free.  Not as good as binary, but pretty good.

Base 6

0.00333333

Alright, yep, divide by 5 is a single repeat in base 6, and it can cleanly accomodate an extra divide by 2 while still being a single repeat.

On the one hand, this is probably easier to remember than the binary version.  On the other hand there are no good approximations or rounding opportunities.

Base 7

0.00550055...

Wait really?  Huh, yeah, I guess 49+1 = 50, and 49-1 = 48.  So base 7 can relatively cleanly divide 2400.  (7^4 = 2401).  That said...2400 isn't too useful.  3600 would be useful, cause you divide by an hour into seconds, but unfortunately base 7 can't handle a second divide by 3 operation cleanly without ending up with a longer repeat.

While still quite nice and understandable, this is still one of the weaker ones so far.

Base 10

0.01666...

I mean, honestly, it's fine.  Worth noting that I just kind of know this one, whereas I don't know 1/24 in base 10.

Base 11

0.020202...

Um...yep, I guess 11^2-1 = 120.  This is pretty nice too.  Actually this is very, very nice, since 2/121 is a monster approximation, so you can probably just think of this as 0.02 most of the time.

Base 12

0.024972497...

Yep, point and laugh, this is base 12 being worse than literally every base below it at dividing by 60.

Base 13

0.02A802A8

I was going to say that at least base 12 can claim to handle this nicer than base 13, but I'm starting to wonder if that's true, actually.  Base 12 has an opening non-repeating digit.  Base 13 has a 0 in the repeat followed by a 2, so you could truncate it at 0.02A8 and you would have a quite solid approximation.

Base 14

0.033A3A3A3A

Meh.  I mean, it's about as bad as a 2 repeat could get TBH.  I mean, what's going on here is...

1/15 = 0.0D0D0D...

Which is pretty nice.  But then you need to divide by 2 twice and things get a bit messy.  And I do notice that composite bases while they're ok at dividing with any of their divisors, they aren't great at it.

I guess, however, you could do a two step process.  Multiply by 0.0D as an approximation.  Then divide by 4, which like...it's a base divisible by 2, dividing by 4 isn't so bad.

Base 15

0.03B3B3B3B...

I...expected more, TBH?  But yeah, I guess dividing by 4 just has a repeat of 2.  The nice thing about base 15 is that dividing by up to 16 only has a repeat of 2.  But yeah, I'm underwhelmed.  The one thing I will say is that if you do have an even number you end up with the fairly clean

1/30 = 0.077777...

---

I'm going a bit more on feel on this one, and how good I feel certain approximations are, but I think I'll go


#1 Base 11

#2 Base 2

#3 Base 3

#4 Base 5

#5 Base 10

#6 Base 7

#7 Base 6

#8 Base 15

#9 Base 14

#10 Base 12

#11 Base 13

Top ones are mostly there because they also pick up very good approximations.  2/121 is monster good.  2/125 is obviously about 5x less accurate.  1/64 is...about 8x worse than 2/121, but also so ultra easy to do, you just shift everything over, no multiplication by a digit required.  4/243 is quite good, a better approximation than 2/125, and multiplying by 11 (base 3) is probably about as annoying as multiplying by 2 (base 5).  I also docked points when extra stuff at the front would knock you out of a nice alignment (e.g. the base 3 one doesn't show up well in base 9.  Base 2 also a little scuffed, like to the point that I initially copied down the wrong number of leading 0s).  I'm not sure quite how to feel about base 7, I feel like multiplying by 55 is going to be obnoxious in base 7.  But BUT it does have a monster approximation.  40/2401.  Like...wow, that's a good approximation.  There's some argument for that over single repeats like .3333; like...what do you even do with single repeats--are you really going to multiply those into a number?  Nah, right?  Single repeats just look pretty, but they aren't actually useful.  Similarly with base 14's approximation.  First you would multiply by 0.0D.  Then you would divide by 4 in a base that has 2 as a divisor.  Or...maybe the other way around.  That's...probably a little more obnoxious than the base 7 calculation?  But still probably something I would do.

That said, I will also give some credit to the fact that if you have a number divisible by 3, then 10 is great, like actually no decimal at all; if you happen to be working with integers should happen 33% of the time.  And if you have a number divisible by 5 then 6 and 12 are great.  And a number divisible by 4 makes 15 great.  I think this convinces me to slide all of these up, sliding 10 up the most because its condition is substantially more common.

The base 13 approximation that exists that uses three digits...look, it's 476/28561.  It's obviously very precise accurate to 5 digits base 13.  But I did not calculate any of the base 13 numbers by hand, and I think that's a pretty good sign that it's roughly at the point that people would just let the calculator do it, at which point the base doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 29, 2023, 08:29:01 AM
Well, since I did 365, I figured I should try 1461 (4 years, with the extra +1 day for the leap year).

There's no nice repeats, but 11 has a pretty nice approximation

0.000A026

Just truncate after the A.

That's really the only thing I spotted.  Other than 1461 factoring to 3*487.  Presumably 487 is just not well handled by any of the bases--it is a pretty large prime.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 30, 2023, 08:49:41 AM
I guess I should do 1/24.  A lot of bases will be quite good at this obviously, but let's see.

Binary family

base 4 probably demonstrates this the clearest

0.00222222...

It's, well it's 1/3, but shifted over by a couple of bits.  As clean as this is I expect a lot of bases to beat it.

Base 3

0.0010101....

As it happens, base 3 can handle 1/8 just fine.  And 1/3 obviously.  Approximating by 0.001 is a 1/27 approximation, which isn't all that accurate, but it is very easy (just shift the number over).

Base 5

0.010101....

Yeah, this handles it better than base 3 TBH.  1/25 is a better approximation than 1/27.

Base 6

0.013

On the one hand it can be done with perfect precision, with roughly the equivalent difficulty of dividing by 4 or multiplying by 25 in base 10.  On the other hand, base 3 and base 5 have approximations that just involve shifting bits.

base 7

0.020202....

So like...first up, the one digit approximation is a bit better than the base 5 one digit approximation in terms of accuracy.  Like...half the error (2/49 to approximate 2/48, whereas base 5's approximation is 2/50).  But...on the other hand, it's not just a shift, you do actually have to multiply by 2.  That makes it a bit worse

base 10

0.0416666...

This for sure is going to be towards the bottom.  Just ugly.  I guess you do have the option of approximating it as "divide by 25", which I mean, isn't bad.  Harder to do than in base 5 though.

base 11

0.050505...

Again, accuracy for the one digit approximation is decent, but multiplying by 5 base 11 is not actually a joke.  Like...I think I'd rather use the two digit approximations for base 3 or base 5 (instead of approximating as 0.01 approximating as 0.0101--that looks nicer than multiplying by 5 base 11).  And those are more accurate than the one digit approximation in base 11.

Base 12

0.06

Absolutely what base 12 was born to do.  Just a divide by 2 and a bit shift.

Base 13

0.070707....

Yeah, it's another one like base 11.  The approximation is good but we're spoiled for choice.

Base 14

0.08249494949...

Wow, this has to be the most obvious last place.  Just trash.

Although...we do know that 2/49 is a pretty good approximation.  This is less nice than base 10, though, cause divide by 25 base 10 is a bit like multiplying by 4, likewise divide by 49 is a bit like multiplying by 4, but we end up needing to multiply by 8 total due to the extra 2 in the 2/49.

Base 15

0.095959595....

Wow, unexpectedly disappointing.  The thing is, base 15 handles dividing by 16 quite cleanly.  But toss in an extra divide by 3 (an operation you would think base 15 would be good at) and it ends up messy and not very approximatable.

Well, maybe this could be a 2 step process?

1/8 = 0.1C1C...

So you could multiply by 0.1C, and then divide by 3 for a solid approximation?  Ehh...uglier than base 14 has it, at least multiply by 8 and shift some bits is just a one digit multiply.

---

#1: Base 12.  Just straight up what it was built to do.

#2: Base 5.

#3: Base 3.

#4: Base 7.  (I think multiplying by 2 base 7 is probably no easier than multiplying by "101" in bases 3/5, and those approximations are better, with base 3 and base 5 also having the option of less accurate but much faster approximations).

#5: Base 6. (100% accuracy obviously, but also a two digit multiply or a divide by 4 where the digits are not both 1.  Nontrivial enough that I think I am willing to give some very nice approximations the nod over it.  After all, if you have a calculator, it kinda doesn't matter anyway, so approximations are nice, and there's no good simplification in base 6 where you do a 1 digit multiplication).

#6: Base 11

#7: Base 13 (below base 11 I think.  Multiply by 7 in a larger base is sufficiently harder, and the accuracy gain is mild, like 0.6% error instead of 0.8% error)

#8: Binary family: At least it's a simple repeat.  And approximating it as 0.0022 base 4 is like...approximating it as 25.6, which is...pretty low accuracy.  But the multiplication is quite easy--in binary it's 0.0000101, so it's a "101" multiplication in binary, so fairly easy.  The "10101" multiplication is also probably fine, though again not like amazingly accurate.

#9: Base 10 (Multiplying by 4 base 10 is probably harder than multiplying by 5 (101) in binary. I think the thing that makes me mark it down is like...I live in base 10, and I didn't even know the opening digits.  0.0416?  Ok.  Whereas binary, all you need to know is 1/3, and you'll also know 1/24).

#10: Base 14 (Worse base 10.  They both try to ride on the coattails of base 5 and base 7 respectively, while being worse at dividing by 5 and 7).

#11: Base 15
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on December 31, 2023, 06:18:30 PM
Number bases

I feel like I should do 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16.  Why these specifically?  Well, inch rulers tend to show down to a 16th of an inch.  I've seen people talk about a quarter of an hour but never a third of an hour or a sixth of an hour or a fifth of an hour.  I just heard one of my nieces say the phrase "a quarter of a quarter".  Dividing things in half just seems like the default go-to at least in the culture I'm familiar with.

Base 2

Obviously a clean first place.

Base 3

1/2 = 0.1111...

1/4 = 0.0202...

1/8 = 0.0101...

1/16 = 0.00120012...

Eh, doesn't seem great.

Base 5

1/2 = 0.2222...

1/4 = 0.1111...

1/8 = 0.0303...

1/16 = 0.01240124...

less clean than base 3 TBH

Base 6

1/2 = 0.3

1/4 = 0.13

1/8 = 0.043

1/16 = 0.0213

So obviously 100% accurate.  Might find a base easier to approximate though.

Base 7

1/2 = 0.3333...

1/4 = 0.1515...

1/8 = 0.0606...

1/16 = 0.0303...

Approximating 1/8 and 1/16 are pretty nice, but calculating 1/2 looks like something you wouldn't approximate through multiplication.

Base 10

1/2 = 0.5

1/4 = 0.25

1/8 = 0.125

1/16 = 0.0625

I mean, it's fine.

Base 11

1/2 = 0.5555

1/4 = 0.2828...

1/8 = 0.1414...

1/16 = 0.07620762...

Meh.

Base 12

1/2 = 0.6

1/4 = 0.3

1/8 = 0.16

1/16 = 0.09

Obviously this is fairly nice

base 13

1/2 = 0.6666...

1/4 = 0.3333...

1/8 = 0.1818...

1/16 = 0.0A740A74...

Ugly.

Base 14

1/2 = 0.7

1/4 = 0.37

1/8 = 0.1A7

1/16 = 0.0C37

I mean, I was able to do these manually, which I didn't do for 4 long repeat sequences.

Base 15

1/2 = 0.7777...

1/4 = 0.3B3B...

1/8 = 0.1D1D...

1.16 = 0.0E0E...

---

OK, well, I want to penalize the prime ones that have 4 long repeat digits for 1/16, so 5, 11, and 13.  But at the same time I'm inclined to give credit to the ones that handle 1/2 and 1/4 better, than bases like 7 and 15 which have good approximations for 1/16 but don't necessarily handle 1/2 all that well.  So...all the even bases will end up floating to the top.

#1 Base 2 family (with a huge lead)

#2 Base 12 (with a huge lead over everything below it)

#3 Base 6

#4 Base 10

#5 Base 14

#6 Base 3 (technically has a "4 long" repeat for 1/16, but if you rephrase it as base 9 it turns into 0.0505... which is honestly nicer than the base 7 approximation of 1/16).

#7 Base 7

#8 Base 5 (I'll give it credit for just smaller digits in general than base 15, looks like 1/2 and 1/4 should be notably easier, and 1/16 not being much harder).

#9 Base 15

#10 Base 11

#11 Base 13
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 26, 2024, 12:39:32 AM
NES tetris

So a video popped up that said 3 million points with double killscreen, and I thought, well, that's interesting cause by my calculations you can only get about 2.5 million up to double killscreen.

And...that's still correct, no error on my part there.  HOWEVER, this is a bot (coded with roughly human reflexes) that proceeds to get many tetrises on double killscreen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JbDm8EOQps

This is with 300 ms reaction time, so will take that long to respond to seeing what's in the "next piece window", and also 30 Hz rolling, which a lot of people are able to do these days just...no one is all that consistent.

Perhaps what the competitive scene might look like in a few years?
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 26, 2024, 02:36:30 AM
number bases

You know, it occurs to me that when doing comparisons between number bases, I never looked at the expansion of e, probably the second most important number after pi.

e is 2.71828182...

Base 2 family:

10.10110111111

OK, well, a few possible approximations here.

One is rounding up to 1.11, approximating e as 2.75.

But a very good one is rounding up at the next spot: 1.10111.  This is an excellent approximation, and in fact there's a very good reason for this, the continued fraction of e, 87/32 is one of the terms.  Speaking of, 11/4 is ALSO one of the terms.

Base 7

I'm going to jump to base 7, cause I happen to know that one additional good term in the continued fraction is 19/7.

2.5012410

Yep, obviously you approximate it as 2.5, and probably don't go any deeper than that.

Base 3 family

2.20110112

So yeah, the 2 + 2/3 approximation exits, it's ehh...a little bit worse than approximating as 2.75.  2.667.  8/3 is also in the continued fraction.

What about 2.2011?  In decimal that's 2.7160.  So I mean, not bad, and happens to play nice with base 9.

Base 5

2.32434

OK, so the best we can do here I think is round up at the second digit after the decimal.  2.33.  In decimal that looks about like 2.72, so about as accurate as the longer base 3 approximation, but you're dealing with fewer digits (or less information dense digits if comparing this to base 9).

Base 6

2.415052

So...there's a two digit approximation of 2.42, or a three digit approximation of 2.415.  I think that's as far as you'd go.  The two digit approximation is a bit worse than the base 5 one.  2.27222.  The three digit approximation is 2.7176, which is quite accurate, but three digits.

Base 10

Obviously you've got the 2.7 approximation.  2.72 is also okay.  Probably wouldn't use more digits.

Base 11

2.79A0400

Those two 0s in a row are pretty eye-popping, but realistically you're not doing a 6 digit approximation.  You're using a calculator at that point.

But I think there's two pretty good approximations here.  2.8 is pretty nice (in base 10 that's 2.7272).  2.7A is also quite good.  2.7190.  Also better than the 2 digit decimal version

Base 12

2.8752360

Wow, that just sucks.

Best one relative to amount of calculation you need to put in is probably 2.9.  Which in decimal is roughly a 2.75 approximation.

Base 13

2.9450B

No, we're not going to use a 4 digit approximation in base 13.

Again, I'd probably use 2.9, which in decimal is a 2.69--slightly better than the one digit approximation base 12 has.

Base 14

2.A0AD

Obviously this one is going to be nice, cause base 7 is nice.

Base 15

2.AB930

OK, so you round up to 2.B probably.  That's a 2.733.  Not great, but about as good as the base 13 one.

---

To put this into a final score like I did with pi

e:

#1: 5 digits of base 2 (score -5.58.  Worth noting the 2 digit approximation despite being a continued fraction wasn't great scoring: -2.51)
#2: 1 digit of base 7 (score -4.68)
#3: 2 digits of base 5 (score -4.06)
#4: 1 digit of base 14 (score -3.68)
#5: Base 11 (2 digits gets a score of -3.03, 1 digit gets a score of -2.86)
#6: Base 6 (2 digit gets a score of -2.36, 3 digit is a bit worse than that).
#7: Base 3 (for the one digit approximation -2.11.  But the 4 digit approximation scores similarly)
#8: Base 10 (-2.06 for the two digit approximation, but the 1 digit approximation also scores similarly)
#9: Base 15 (-1.67 for the one digit approximation)
#10: Base 13 (-1.03 for the one digit approximation)
#11: Base 12 (-0.92 for the one digit approximation)

Base 12 dead last again, LOL.

Mostly I got inspired to do this cause I realized this was yet another place base 7 was going to score mysteriously well, but what I didn't think about is that base 2 scores even better cause it's also a continued fraction.  Don't get too hung up on the base 2 representation being 5 digits of course, they're base 2 digits, so like...two digits in base 8.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on January 27, 2024, 07:16:57 AM
Thinking about it some more, base 7 has some argument for the best approximation of e (relative to investment).

Realistically, if you did operate somewhere within base 2, you'd probably think in base 4 or base 8, and either one ends up using the equivalent of 6 binary digits.  (The base 2 approximation only scores higher if you use 5 binary digits).  Or even worse you might be using base 16 and end up using 8 binary digits (which would slip things down to 4th).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 07, 2024, 02:09:06 AM
Number bases.

Square root of 2.  So I gave some thought about whether it's better to look at square root of 2 or 1/sqrt(2).  Decided on the latter for two reasons:

1. It's easier to multiply by 2 than divide by 2 to get to the other version.
2. 1/sqrt(2) does show up in like trig functions.

So...okay.

Base 2 family

sqrt(2) = 0.10110101000001

Two possible approximations here.

One is two digits, so 0.11 as an approximation (approximating 0.7071 as 0.75).

The other is eight digits.  0.10110101.  This is maybe on an upper limit of what people might tolerate, but it IS two digits in hexadecimal (0.B5).  This one is nice.  0.7070.

Base 3 family

0.20100211

So obviously 0.201 is the choice here.  Sadly doesn't work great in base 9.  This is decent.  0.7037 as an approximation of 0.7071

Base 5

0.32314323

I hate it.  I don't think you're going to take 4 digits, that's a bit larger than most humans usually want to bother wit when approximating.  So I guess you go with three digits.  0.323.  This is about as accurate as the base 3 approximation, 0.704, but obviously more obnoxious to work with due to more information encoded per digit.

The one thing that I will say is that this is the one base that is probably screwed by doing 1/sqrt(2) rather than sqrt(2).  So many middle of the road digits.  1.2 is probably a real solid approximation for sqrt(2) in base 5.

Base 6

0.412422435

Meh, I guess you just do 0.4, no other cutoff looks exciting.  So approximating it as 0.67.

Base 7

0.4643522

Pretty nice one, just round up to 0.5.  0.714 for 0.707

Base 10

0.707107

So...yeah, pretty easy 0.7 is going to be the best one.  You'll also maybe consider 0.71.  About as accurate as the base 7 one, but bigger digits blah blah blah.

Base 11

0.78618

So yeah, ok, not going 3 digits obviously.  So...0.8?  0.7272.  Not great.

Base 12

0.859A6

Guess for this one we would do 0.86?  That's 0.7083 to approximate 0.7071.  Decent, honestly.

Base 13

0.92668A

OK, well, I would do 0.9 here.  Which is 0.69  Not the worst.

Base 14

0.9C84

OK, approximate that as 0.A obviously.  0.714, once again riding the coattails of base 7, as expected.

Base 15

0.A917

Alright, 0.A9 approximation.  Quite accurate, 0.7067

---

OK, so the top ones are

#1 8 digits of base 2 (2 digits of base 16) -- score of -5.19  (The 2 digit approximation has a score of -2.04)
#2 1 digit of base 7 -- score of -3.81
#3 1 digit of base 10 -- score of -3.30
#4 1 digit of base 3 -- -2.94
#5 2 digits of base 15 -- -2.84
#6 1 digit of base 14 -- -2.82
#7 2 digits of base 12 -- -2.01
#8 1 digit of base 13 -- -1.85
#9 1 digit of base 11 -- -1.67
#10 1 digit of base 6 -- -1.46
#11 3 digits of base 5 -- -0.86

Well base 12 isn't dead last this time, nice job base 12!

Base 7 and base 2 once again near the top.

Base 6 way lower than I expected.  Obviously the cutoff points were not fantastic, but usually being a small base will get it over some higher clunkier bases.  Base 6 and base 5 both look like they would benefit a lot from looking at sqrt(2) instead of 1/sqrt(2), though--very middle of the road digits.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 07, 2024, 03:09:16 AM
OK, so let me try and get some kind of overall scoring.  Doing cutoffs wherever cutoffs feel natural, cause like...if a base doesn't do something well, at some point you just don't use the approximation and move on with your life.

1/root(2):

#1 8 digits of base 2 (2 digits of base 16) -- score of -5.19  (The 2 digit approximation has a score of -2.04)
#2 1 digit of base 7 -- score of -3.81
#3 1 digit of base 10 -- score of -3.30
#4 1 digit of base 3 -- -2.94
#5 2 digits of base 15 -- -2.84
#6 1 digit of base 14 -- -2.82

e:

#1: 5 digits of base 2 (score -5.58.  Worth noting the 2 digit approximation despite being a continued fraction wasn't great scoring: -2.51)
#2: 1 digit of base 7 (score -4.68)
#3: 2 digits of base 5 (score -4.06)
#4: 1 digit of base 14 (score -3.68)
#5: Base 11 (2 digits gets a score of -3.03, 1 digit gets a score of -2.86)

1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16

#1 Base 2 family (with a huge lead)
#2 Base 12 (with a huge lead over everything below it)
#3 Base 6
#4 Base 10
#5 Base 14

1/24

#1: Base 12.  Just straight up what it was built to do.
#2: Base 5.
#3: Base 3.
#4: Base 7.  (I think multiplying by 2 base 7 is probably no easier than multiplying by "101" in bases 3/5, and those approximations are better, with base 3 and base 5 also having the option of less accurate but much faster approximations).
#5: Base 6. (100% accuracy obviously, but also a two digit multiply or a divide by 4 where the digits are not both 1.  Nontrivial enough that I think I am willing to give some very nice approximations the nod over it.  After all, if you have a calculator, it kinda doesn't matter anyway, so approximations are nice, and there's no good simplification in base 6 where you do a 1 digit multiplication).

1/60

#1 Base 11
#2 Base 2
#3 Base 3
#4 Base 5
#5 Base 10
#6 Base 7
#7 Base 6

pi

#1: base 7 (score: 4.0)
#2: base 14 (score: 3.0)
#3: base 5* (score: 1.8)
#4: base 2** family: (score: 1.2)
#5: base 13: (score: 1.0)

1/365

#1: base 3
#2: base 2

above 1 powers of 2

#1: base 2 by a mile
#2: base 14, since base 7 is decent
#3: base 15 will have a similar property to base 7
#4: base 7 is fine

Factorials

#1: base 12
#2: IDK, base 6 probably?
#3: base 2 probably?

Factorials and above 10 powers of 2 I admitedly did not do super scientifically.

So...for awards:

Base 2 family: #1 (root 2), #1 (pi), #1 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #2 (1/60), #4 (pi), #2 (1/365), #1 (powers of 2), #3 (factorials)

Base 7: #4 (powers of 2), #1 (pi), #4 (1/24), #2 (e--argument for #1), #2 (root 2), #6 (1/60)

Base 14: #2 (powers of 2), #2 (pi), #5 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #4 (e), #6 (root 2)

Base 3: #1 (1/365), #3 (1/60), #3 (1/24), #4 (root 2)

Base 5: #3 (pi), #4 (1/60), #2 (1/24), #3 (e)

Base 6: #2 (factorials), #5 (1/24), #3 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #7 (1/60)

Base 12: #1 (factorials), #1 (1/24), #2 (1/2, 1/4 etc)

Base 10: #3 (root 2), #4 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #5 (1/60)

Base 11: #1 (1/60), #5 (e)

Base 15: #3 (powers of 2), #5 (root 2)

Base 13: #5 (pi)

So...

Base 2 being #1 not a surprise.  Base 7 being #2, I sort of expected but still wasn't sure of, despite seeing it near the top a lot.  Base 14 being #3 is genuinely surprising--it's so much worse than base 7 most of the time.  BUT you can divide by 2 decently well like base 10, and that keeps it with awards in five categories.

Base 3, 5, 6 being next, sure, small bases, they tend to just luck into some good scores as they have more chances.

Base 12 is weird to place, more #1s than most other bases other than base 2, and like, maybe I would consider moving it up because of that, if I didn't know how often it was finishing dead last.  Not that I penalized other bases for when they finished dead last, though so ehh.

Base 10 is...fine.  Like I can't justify putting it above base 12, but I also don't think it's that much worse.

Base 11, 13, and 15 are bad.  That was the point, this should surprise no one.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 11, 2024, 05:00:29 PM
Hmm...so I just assumed base 7 being decent at powers of 2 would mean base 14 was as well, but that's wrong isn't it?

1
2
4
8
12
24
48
92
144
288
522
A44
1688
2D32

Yeah, nah, these are not great take base 14 off of that list.

Meanwhile, surely base 3 is decent, with 3+1 = 4 and 9-1 = 8?

2
11
22
121
1012
2101
11202
100111

OK, no not really either, these are kind of tricky to calculate, and the pascal's triangle pattern only shows up in the form of 11 and 121.

Anyway, bumping 14 off that list...does put it in the clump of bases with 4 rewards, and it slips to the bottom of that group TBH.  Which now puts us in a situation where all the single digit bases outperform all the double digit bases.


Base 2 family: #1 (root 2), #1 (pi), #1 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #2 (1/60), #4 (pi), #2 (1/365), #1 (powers of 2), #3 (factorials)

Base 7: #3 (powers of 2), #1 (pi), #4 (1/24), #2 (e--argument for #1), #2 (root 2), #6 (1/60)

Base 3: #1 (1/365), #3 (1/60), #3 (1/24), #4 (root 2)

Base 5: #3 (pi), #4 (1/60), #2 (1/24), #3 (e)

Base 6: #2 (factorials), #5 (1/24), #3 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #7 (1/60)

Base 14: #2 (pi), #5 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #4 (e), #6 (root 2)

Base 12: #1 (factorials), #1 (1/24), #2 (1/2, 1/4 etc)

Base 10: #3 (root 2), #4 (1/2, 1/4 etc), #5 (1/60)

Base 11: #1 (1/60), #5 (e)

Base 15: #2 (powers of 2), #5 (root 2)

Base 13: #5 (pi)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 18, 2024, 07:57:06 AM
Starcraft

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDn4N2BBFLM

A game of mech terran vs queens where the Terran pulls it out in a long game (unlike the ASL game from last season where even with the new composition that's very heavy on goliaths, queens were able to pull it out).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on February 29, 2024, 08:12:15 AM
Starcraft

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_LcMkuAiGw

Multiple guardians and devourers in an ASL game (doesn't win, but economic damage was dealt early to the zerg).  And a few other goofy strats.  Lurker rush ZvT (failed as it always seems to in ASL).  Battlecruiser rush TvT (failed, but showed some promise).   Proxy robo against a terran (succeeded but Artosis said that the terran just needed to build a second bunker and greedily tried to hold with 1 bunker).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 02, 2024, 11:15:53 AM
Fairy Chess with 960 rules.

---

So...something that has been a thing recently at high level chess is "chess 960" with pieces scrambled.

It's called chess 960 (also called Fischer Random) because there are 960 possible configurations.

Here's the rules for the placement orientations:

The king must be between the rooks (to enable castling)

The bishops must be on different colours

Here's how the math works out for that.

Place the two bishops first, one of them goes on black, one of them goes on white.  4 possible squares for the black bishop, 4 possible squares for the white bishop.  16 configurations.

Next place the queen.  6 remaining squares.  16*6 configurations.

next place the two knights.  5 remaining squares, so 4+3+2+1 = 10 configurations.

3 squares remaining for the king and the two rooks.  the king is forced to go in the middle, so no decisions here.

So we're left with 16*6*10 = 960.

---

Anyway, so...I was thinking about Capablanca chess, and thinking that going up to a 10x8 board is kinda meh, I'd prefer to keep an 8x8 board.  But what if we blend Chess 960 with a few fairy chess pieces?

So that would be like...

Archbishop (Bishop+knight)
Empress (Rook+knight)
Guard (moves like king)

You would have 0-1 each of the heavy pieces (Queen, Archbishop, Empress) and then 0-2 of the minor pieces (Knight, Rook, Guard, Bishop)

Mostly I was wondering how many configurations this would be.

Well, first of all, we need to figure out how many different mixtures of pieces there could randomly be.

So it's 11 pieces crammed into 7 slots.

Need to pick 4 to exclude from any given game.  OK, so this is already a nontrivial calculation, the binomial coefficient here would suggest 330 possible combinations.  But a bunch of those are duplicated (doesn't matter if we remove the first or the second knight) and some are duplicated many times (if you remove 1 knight, 1 bishop, 1 guard, 1 rook, there's 16 ways to do that which are identical).

So ok, binomial coefficients aren't going to save us.

We have 11 pieces, but only 7 unique pieces.  So no removal has more than 7 options.  This puts an upper limit on the number of options at 7^4/24 = 100ish.

A bit of spreadsheet is telling me the actual answer is about 62?  ish?

Of those, the most common case seems to be 2-of two minor pieces, 2 pieces excluded, 1-of all remaining pieces.

The number of configurations of that are...

The two ways the first set of minor pieces can be configured (assuming it's knights or guards not bishops or rooks that would have additional restrictions) 28 placements for the 2-of minor piece.  Next set of minor pieces will have 15 placements, and then x4 x3 x2 x1 for the remaining pieces.

So...10,080 configurations for that piece set.  Multiply by 62 for the number of different piece sets.  Around 620k configurations.

---

Now, I mean, granted, I have no clue if this is a good idea or not.  One issue with having only one bishop is that when you mirror the position it leads to opposite colour bishops on move 0 (and opposite colour bishops are often draw-ish positions).  So maybe bishops need to be 2 or 0 but never 1-of.

A board without rooks means no possibility of castling, potentially.  Is that a problem?  IDK.  Maybe 2 rooks need to be locked in and the other pieces can be randomized.  Not sure.

One issue that apparently came up in the original capablanca chess was one pawn that was undefended on move 0, which was claimed to give white an advantage.  (This was fixed by shuffling pieces).  Now, I mean, it depends why this happens, but it's possible this happens because of the Fairy chess pieces (specifically the Archbishop/Empress being able to jump over their own pawns and then threaten black pawns before black has moved).  This could be a unique challenge that does not come up in chess 960 just due to the nature of pieces that don't exist in that format.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on March 08, 2024, 09:17:49 AM
On the classic NES Tetris note, there was an interesting video recently for a deep dive to see why that crash is "really" happening, why it only happens at high levels, and why it's erratic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAbRx9obM1M
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 11, 2024, 05:46:23 AM
I suppose as long as we're mentioning classic tetris stuff, two different people just cracked 2 million with the 39 double killscreen cap.

Sidnev did it first:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE-09no3Pjg

And then Blue Scuti beat her score two days later:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7OCIi6FJfw

On paper this has been doable for a while--if you added together the best pace anyone had playing from 18-28, with the best practice run anyone had done from 29-38, you actually got something like 2.3 million.  But up until fairly recently the record was something like 1.89 million, so actually getting performances like that back to back has clearly been fairly hard.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 12, 2024, 07:24:54 AM
Starcraft

Apparently there is a new style now in lategme TvZ that goes much heavier firebat, like 20%-50% firebat over marine.  Artosis casts a game here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXS1fULC5cw
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on March 22, 2024, 11:18:26 PM
Starcraft

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgd3A0dmw9E

Mini showcases a style against Terran where he gets Dark Templar basically every game.  He accepts a base trade from the Terran, kills the enemy scanners, and then holds off the terran army with DTs.  Requires pretty good micro to make sure mines from vultures don't just kill the DTs.

This is a response to a pretty specific build that has been popular among Terrans recently (5 factory 2 base push).  If they go for a science vessel, sniping all the detection doesn't work.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 25, 2024, 02:58:14 AM
D&D 5e

So...lots and lots of blathering has happened on the internet in terms of class balance.  And I kind-of tuned most of it out, cause like hey, balanced parties work better than parties of all wizards anyway.

But recently it occurred to me...what if I do to D&D 5e the same thing I did with FFT and do a ban-a-thon.  If I ban one class, how much does it hurt overall party strength?

Assumptions

No Combos: Much like I assumed no full party combos in FFT (no sunken stated dance, no quickening) I will also assume no full party combos here (e.g. no Haste + Spike Growth + high movement grappler parties).

No scaling to party: I will also assume, and this needs to be stated because it's D&D and often in D&D the DM will just scale the difficulty to the party.  But I will also assume that parties are facing the exact same scenario, the DM isn't adjusting difficulty to the party.  Maybe it's a pre-made module.

Basic magic items available: The official adventure league has a list of "evergreen" items, which are bag of holding, +1/+2/+3 weapons, +1/+2/+3 shields, +1/+2/+3 wand of the war mage, +1/+2/+3 rod of the pact keeper, +1 armor (or barding), potions of healing (any), spell scrolls (any).  None of this is unlimited of course, loosely it should cost gold.

If it comes up, I will assume +1 stuff in tier 2 (level 5-10), +2 stuff in tier 3 (level 11-16), and +3 stuff in tier 4 (levels 17+).  Except for +1 armor which I will only assume in tier 4.

The reason for doing this is to correct a bit for the internet, which tends to assume no magic gear at any point.  And it's worth noting that magic weapons are a bit better than wands (e.g. +2 sword is a bigger damage boost than a +2 wand).

Basic adventure league rules assumed: so this means stuff like if you have your simulacrum wish for something big, and it backfires and they lose the ability to cast wish, you also lose the ability to cast wish and so do your future simulacrums.  This also means stuff like max 2 short rests per adventuring day (mostly to stop short rest spam from sorcerer/warlock mutliclasses).

All official Subclasses assumed: yes, even the busted ones.

Up to date races assumed, within reason--no flying races: So like races in monsters of the multiverse minus Fairy and Aarakokra.  Plus like variant human.  I don't know if this will come up, but maybe.

I'll assume 3-5 combats, and more often than not 1 short rest rather than 2: I know some people say they run more than this, or less than this, but I've watched a number of one-shots on youtube with various famous youtube optimisers playing, and it's pretty consistently between 3-5 combats in that format.

Anyway...assumptions out of the way, the first few classes I think are fairly obvious.

1. Paladin

The first class to ban seems very straightforward to me.  The difference between a party with aura of protection and without aura of protection is noticeable.  And Paladin Subclasses offer some very nice additional bonus auras (like everyone adding your proficiency bonus to their initiative score for Watchers Paladin).  This is simply not a replaceable feature--artificers and bards can use their inspiration or their flash of genius to help a little bit, but they are limited in use, and need to spend bonus actions or reactions.

Now I mean, if Paladins themselves were terrible at everything other than giving the party a big  stat buff, maybe they would not be so high, but you know, they are decent at damage, they are decent at healing, they get find steed and find greater steed which are very nice.  They would be a reasonable but not standout class without the auras.

2. Ranger

There's a basic plan with ranger which is pretty good, and it goes like this:  Concentrate on Pass Without Trace to give the full party +10 to stealth, this theoretically allows the party to avoid trouble, or sneak up on enemies and get surprise.  (Which...official rules on surprise are super busted--basically a full extra turn.  Not all DMs run it that way).  And then other than that just be a high damage character (which a lot of full spellcasters would struggle to do without dropping concentration on Pass Without Trace--they generally need to pick between continuing to concentrate on PWT, or dealing damage).  Use remaining spell slots on Goodberry or whatever.

Now I mean, there's some obvious objections--Ranger isn't the only place to get Pass Without Trace, Shadow Monk could be the Pass Without Trace bot, and shadow monks...you could build them for damage, or at least I've seen someone claim they succeeded at building them for damage.  There's just one problem: the high damage shadow monk build I saw dipped 3 levels into Gloomstalker Ranger.  As do...many of the damage builds I see, TBH.  Gloomstalker is just the universal "dip this to make your damage build deal more damage".

It is pretty specifically Gloomstalker Ranger in particular that lifts Rangers up above other options here.  If they ever fight in darkness, they become invisible for free, get advantage on all their attacks, land most of their sharpshooter hits and that's very very strong.  A DM that gets used to having a gloomstalker ranger with sharpshooter in the party will plan around this, be very careful with where they place darkness.  But one of my starting assumptions was that there would be no adjusting for the party.  A pre-made module where there's a fully dark corner in every fight would just get trivialized by a gloomstalker.

But wait, there's more!  Let's say there's zero fights in darkness, Gloomstalkers aren't necessarily a problem class without darkness but they still get some nice 3rd level features, and in particular a lot of nice 3rd level features for dealing damage.  Particularly with the new bugbear from Monsters of the Multiverse.  If Bugbear beats enemies on initiative, all their attacks deal extra damage round 1.  Well guess what?  Gloomstalker gives a boost to initiative and an extra attack on round 1.  Everything Bugbear cares about.  They just fit together like puzzle pieces.

3. Wizard

I think #3 gets a lot more murky.  There's maybe some arguments for cleric because Twilight and Peace cleric are silly overtuned subclasses.

There also might be some argument for fighter.  With ranger and paladin out of the picture, if you want to have a balanced party that won't die in, say, an antimagic field, not having fighter as an option probably does hurt.

That said, I think this has to go to wizard.  Cutting out wizard means you just won't have access to certain spells, unless you use Bard Magical Secrets.  Like...passwall for example, which is a spell that can really stand out when you give the same dungeon to multiple different parties.  Or Arcane Eye, which is very strong for scouting ahead.

Cutting out Wizard means it becomes kind-of expensive to get someone who's good with rituals.  Now I mean, anyone in the party, even a fighter or a barbarian can grab the ritual caster feat.  But that does weaken the character that grabs it, whereas wizards are good at rituals almost for free.  Similarly, a warlock could go pact of the tome and then take the book of ancient secrets invocation.  But that's not free either--requires an invocation and a pact selection.

Of course, classes like Cleric and Bard do get ritual casting, but they need to spend spell preparations preparing all their rituals.

These aspects on their own might not be enough.  But on top of those nice things I think there's a decent amount of power here is coming from Wizard subclasses as well.

Chronurgy Wizards are famously busted when they get to level 10, because they (or even their familiar) can use Arcane Abeyance to cast Leomund's Tiny Hut with one action.  Leomund's Tiny Hut should never be castable with an action--nothing can enter it, no spell, no object, but anything that starts inside it is free to move in or out, so like...the party archer who has their arrows inside the hut can just shoot out of the hut.  Oh, and the dome is also transparent from the inside but opaque from the outside, so archers on the inside should be attacking with advantage being unseen by their targets.  It's...yeah, not like there's no way ever to break it, dispel magic can break it, enemies running away and hiding down the road is an option, but it still should never have been castable as an action.

But I mean, for another much lower level subclass, lets say you know your party isn't going to have a paladin and you're worried about your saving throws on your fighter or barbarian or rogue.  Well...have you considered a 2 level War Wizard dip?  Get yourself +4 to any saving throw as a reaction useable infinite times per day!

Admittedly, War Wizard dips are not as impactful as just...one person in the party grabbing a peace cleric dip (+2.5 to the whole party's saves and doesn't even take a reaction), but War Wizard dip is still a pretty good dip.

Just...losing wizard means you need to work quite a bit harder to get versatility tricks such as rituals, passwall, arcane eye.  And while yeah, arguably there are still stronger subclasses out there because Tasha's Clerics are dumb like that, Wizard subclasses are certainly on the high end of the remaining ones.

4. Cleric

You know, if this was just player's handbook versions, I think Cleric would actually slide down the list quite a bit.  But if I'm thinking of "what's the best way to protect saving throws with Paladin and Wizard banned" it's not a bard with bardic inspiration, it's not an artificer.  It's any party member grabbing a 1 level Peace cleric dip.  If I'm thinking in terms of what will hurt party damage more, missing out on fighter as a class, missing out on barbarian as a class, or missing out on a 1 level peace cleric dip somewhere in the party--yeah, when I've plugged stuff like this into spreadsheets before, the +2.5 hit rate to the whole party was just such a big deal.  So peace cleric dip is more impactful than missing any one of the remaining damage classes.

And then like Twilight Cleric does some goofy stuff too with handing out temp HP every turn, and having 300 foot darkvision which can be shared with the whole party.

Note that none of this really has anything to do with cleric's spells (unlike the wizard ban).  They could be a martial with these subclasses, and probably still get banned at this point.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 25, 2024, 05:44:37 AM
D&D 5e ban-a-thon continued

5. Fighter

Okay, so 5th spot actually requires some thought.

On the caster side, Druid, Bard, and Sorcerer are all pretty good, but don't necessarily stand out next to each other.  There's also warlock, which is a really common dip for Bard and Sorcerer.  Warlock and Sorcerer have one of those interesting standoffs you sometimes see in ban-a-thons where they're the last two easy ways to access the shield spell, so when one of them goes, probably the other one goes right afterwards.  That said...I'm not seeing an obvious weak link that would dramatically lower the power level of parties if it was removed here.  Dipping hexblade warlock for medium armor is popular, but dipping a level of Artificer would be an easy enough replacement.

But meanwhile, on the martial side, there is a dream team that I think I want to break up, and that dream team is Echo Knight Fighter + Ancestral Guardian Barbarian.  You can recklessly attack through your echo while being nowhere close to a target.  And then Ancestral Guardian Barbarian will make that enemy basically harmless at attacking anyone other than you while you're out of range (the enemy has disadvantage to attack anyone but you, AND if they hit, the party member gets resistance to the damage too LOL).

Now, I mean, is the ban Barbarian, is the ban Fighter?  I think it's Fighter.  For one thing, Echo Knight is probably the real power behind the build here (infinitely spawning echos, free teleports, a 7th level feature that's really good for scouting).  For another thing, Fighter has a lot more scope for other builds, like fighter still can do archer builds, which Barb cannot.  Fighter's now the only easy way to get a fighting style, and some fighting styles are very good (like Archery fighting style).  1 level dip of fighter is not a bad dip on mages.  Some mages even take 2 level dips for action surge.  Action Surge is good on martial builds too.

---

I suppose I should make a note on Druid, cause like...I don't know if a typical RPGDL reader would object in this way, but there are random people on the internet who will say things like "conjure animals outdamages any martial in D&D" and like...it's not like there aren't calculations to back that up, but I calculate slightly differently and I'd like to explain my calculations real quick.

Conjure animals damage is a lot worse if you go by the Jeremy Crawford tweet where the DM picks the animals (if we just assume the DM randomly rolls for animals among CR 1/4 beasts in the monster manual).  I'm also making an assumption slightly different from the rest of the internet which is that you get some basic magic items.

Like...let me do a very basic level 11 fighter with no subclass using crossbow expert, sharpshooter, and 20 DEX.  Variant human or custom lineage.  With a +2 hand crossbow because that's the level when I said they'd get up to +2 magic weapons.

To hit the fighter has +4 from proficiency, +2 from archery fighting style, +5 from DEX, +2 from their hand crossbow.  So...+13 to hit.  They will take -5 to hit for sharpshooter, so that will drop down to +8 to hit.  Let's say they're facing...18 AC; that AC seems reasonable, given the level and the +2 weapons.  55% chance to hit,

By comparison, a lot of CR 1/4 beasts have +4 to hit (Axe Beak, Giant Lizard) and some have +3 to hit (Boar, Giant Frog).  But let's assume your DM is rolling on a table of beasts to decide what spawns, and you get something above average like a Draft Horse--+6 to hit, 9 damage.  Excellent.

Fighter with no subclass not using action surge is dealing 45.8 damage per turn.

Conjure Animals with 8 Draft Horses is dealing 34.4 damage per turn.

And then if you low roll on the animal, the DM rolls randomly for an animal and gets something mildly below-average like Giant Lizards, then we're talking 20 damage per turn from 8 giant lizards.

Now, granted, Conjure Animals can be upcast for 16 animals out of a 5th level slot, so with a relative highroll like Draft Horses yeah, now that's 69 damage per turn.  And 40 damage with a relative lowroll like Giant Lizards.  But also...I've watched Conjure Animals in action in high level games--AoE damage happens, the animals die.  You also need to be specifically Shepherd Druid or you'll do half damage to some percentage of monsters.

And...we could start adding in stuff like...Bless despite banning paladin and cleric still isn't that hard to get, either from Fey Touched or from Divine Soul Sorcerer.  And Bless gets more value buffing a single fighter than it does buffing 3/8 of a Conjure Animals spell.

Or we could consider that some enemies fly--presumably your DM isn't so strict with conjure animals that they will give you cows against a flying dragon, presumably they'll pick randomly between flying beasts in the monster manual--Giant Owls, Giant Bats, or Swarms of Bats, but all three of those deal pretty bad damage, so your damage will always be low-ish vs flying enemies.

We could also consider subclasses for the fighter, we could factor in stuff like Action Surge.

And then there's just party diversity to consider--one of the roles of a martial character in a party is to bail the party out if there's anti-magic stuff--like an anti-magic field, or like a monster that has some level of magic immunity.  And a lot of that stuff does stop conjure animals.

This isn't to say that Druids can't deal good damage with conjure animals.  Druids can absolutely do good damage, even with my extra assumptions.

But if you relied exclusively on Druids and not martial characters to deal damage, the party would have some real weaknesses--some real fights where they would really struggle.  Flying enemies, anti-magic fields, enemies with limited magic immunity, enemies that can center AoE damage on themselves.

---

6. Warlock

So okay, what's going on with martials at this point?  Barbarians do the most damage, and soak more hits than Rogues and Monks usually, but they're mostly limited to melee.  And they can't concentrate on spells while raging, which is noteworthy--you can't dip a couple levels of say, druid, to concentrate on pass without trace with a barbarian build, but a rogue or a monk sure could do that.

Monks and Rogues can both go ranged, which...ranged physical attackers are worth having.  Rogues deal a bit more damage than monks by going Elven Accuracy, and then using Steady Aim to get advantage every turn.  Although gunner monks can technically sink a lot of ki into Focused Aim to pull ahead on damage, but with small ki investments it's a bit lower on average.

I suppose there's also Barb/Rogue multiclasses to consider (Rogue is a better exit multiclass for Barb than Monk is).

Artificer probably also pops into consideration at this point.  They get extra attack, they hit things.  Hmm...ok well actually, running some numbers gunner monk and steady aim rogues should out-damage battle smith artificers by a decent amount.  But artificers come with some party support, and they're kinda tanky so that's nice.

Mmm...It's not clear that losing any one of these would hurt all that much to lose though.

What about the casters?

...I am side-eyeing one combo on the caster side, which is Eldritch Blast plus quicken Eldritch Blast, which does actually pull into the lead for ranged damage at level 11 when Eldritch Blast gets the third beam (pull into the lead in terms of damage compared to ranged rogues, monks, etc).  This is with no hex or hexblade's curse or anything like that, so you can be concentrating on a real spell while you do this--maybe a Tasha's summon with more ranged damage--Aberrant Mind Sorcerer gets Summon Aberration for example.  I mean, it's not free, but 2 sorcery points a turn can be sustained for quite a while if you convert sorcery points to spell slots, the range is good, and it comes with some utility (repelling blast).

Yeah, I mean, I don't think I necessarily made an error banning fighter first, the echo knight combo is still very unique, but this combo it is starting to stand out a little now.

And...as mentioned earlier, the moment we ban one of Sorcerer/Warlock, the other one probably goes next, cause they'd be the last easy access to the shield spell.

Sorcerer without Warlock...you would just dip a level in...probably Artificer instead for medium armor and shields.  I suppose Druid also an option if your DM is nice about offering non-metal armor or isn't super stringent about enforcing the "druids will not wear metal armor".  The main thing you would lose is access to a strong at-will option in Eldritch Blast, but you would pick up more spell slots.  But also worth noting, Bard would also lose access to Eldritch Blast and probably its favourite dip target for getting medium armor and shields and access to the shield spell.  Swords and Valor bard in particular basically would not want to focus on weapon attacks at all with no hexblade dip.  You also wouldn't be able to be a mono-class warlock, which...isn't nothing, Geenie Warlocks are pretty good, Hexblade Warlocks are kind-of like fighters, and those just got themselves banned.

Warlock without Sorcerer...there's basically no access to metamagic, but that's not necessarily a dealbreaker.  Divine Soul Sorcerer is still a pretty good one-level dip for anyone with spell slots who doesn't have the shield spell (lets you pick up shield, and bless, and the 1st level DSS feature which is a once-per-rest +5 to a saving throw).  If you're going primarily sorcerer, I will say I think Clockwork Soul Sorcerer is probably overall better than any official Bard, just gets so many more spells prepared than any bard, and with Wizard banned sorcerer in general gains a lot of uniqueness from Wizard spells like Web and Haste and Fireball.  (These are available from other classes like Artificer, and some Circle of the Land Druid subclasses but the opportunity cost of getting them from those methods is much higher).  If for some reason you really want Spirit Guardians, Divine Soul Sorcer is probably the best way to grab that, though I don't see an obvious build where the party would suffer without spirit guardians.

Interestingly Warlock and Sorcerer have a lot of overlap--like one of the things sorcerer does that Bard does not is AoE damage like fireball which is now becoming relatively scarce with Wizard and Cleric banned.  But warlock does that too.

That said, I think going back to a bit of utility discussion--Bard is still worth considering bringing with the current class limitations.  It's a ritual caster, it has Leomund's Tiny Hut and Detect Magic; yeah, you have to prepare them but better than wasting a feat on them.  Bard also has skill checks and expertise.  Bard protects your saving throws a bit.  And if you have a bard in your party, you probably don't bring a sorcerer (too similar, not good for party diversity) but the bard could easily dip Warlock.  Full warlock teamed with bard also arguably makes a bit more sense than full sorcerer teamed with bard (less overlap).

I think Warlock is probably the link that hurts the jenga tower the most here.

7. Sorcerer

OK, so I predicted whichever of Sorcerer/Warlock went first, the other one would go right afterwards.  Am I still sticking with that?

Mmm...sorcerer is a pretty good 1 level dip on a Bard or a Druid, gets CON saving throws, the shield spell, and a subclass (usually divine soul on a 1 level dip).  Whereas dipping the other way around, sorcerer dipping druid or Bard...probably not.

This is in addition to a select few subclasses of Sorcerer like Clockwork Soul just having a lot more spells prepared and a lot more access to wizard spells than their Bard or Druid counterparts, so you might just want to bring a full Sorcerer anyway.

There are other ways to get the shield spell of course--3 level dips into artificer.  Picking a specific race from monsters of the multiverse.  But these are much more expensive.

Yeah, I think it's still Sorc next.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 25, 2024, 07:58:13 AM
D&D 5e ban-a-thon continued

8. Bard

So...I thought this next one was going to be tough.  Turns out...not really.

So I mean, we're definitely starting to feel a lack of party diversity.  Stuff like AoE damage, kinda hard to come by.  Stuff like the shield spell, kinda hard to come by.  Stuff like Counterspell, kinda hard to come by.

But Bard has this ability called Magical Secrets, where they get to pick spells from any spell list, and that just plugs a lot of holes.

This on top of being just generally a solid class--full caster with decent spells.  Bardic Inspiration being generally better than the Artificer Flash of Genius.  Being good at skill checks.  They're also the last remaining class that wants high charisma, whereas Druid, whom I assume is one of the major points of competition here, is not the last remaining class that wants high WIS.

I think there's a good case to be made that if magical secrets didn't exist, Druid would look like the stronger class--better base spell list, and they come with medium armor and shield proficiency (with the asterix of "won't wear metal armour").

But I think banning Bard next just more significantly limits what parties can do.  Like for example, let's say the party has a barbarian.  Someone needs to be able to make the Barbarian fly in case you fight a flying enemy.  Druids...well no subclass gets the fly spell, but maybe you could cast conjure animals and get giant owls or giant bats and mount them, and then hope that the giant owls don't lose their 19 HP (by the way, Druids don't learn Feather Fall).  Artificers could cast fly, but at much higher levels, and they would have trouble upcasting it if multiple party members needed to fly.  Although they can just spend an infusion on Boots of Flying at level 10.  Bards?  No questions asked, Lore Bard can just learn Fly from magical secrets at level 6 if that's a concern.

Now that we're down to like...6 classes and the potential for party diversity is dwindling, the number of holes Bard can fill just seems like a bit too much to leave them unbanned.

9. Druid

Once we ban Bard, it's going to be Druid next, right?  You want party diversity, this means you want a full caster.  Druid is the last option for a full caster.  If all the other martials were banned, we would ban the last martial here probably.

I guess the one point of comparison would be Artificer, who can definitely lean more into the full caster role by infusing items like Pipes of Haunting.  But like...nah, it's not the same.  Druid gets Revivify and Dispel Magic at level 5.  Druids make better use of ritual casting than artificers.  Druids can take something like Moonbeam, upcast it like a full caster, and then every martial who can grapple or push can shove enemies into it for extra damage (enemies taking damage both when they enter and when they start their turn in it).  There's still multiple sources of Pass Without Trace even this deep into bans, but Druid is a pretty good way to get PWT.  Druids get polymorph at a level when it's relevant (like conjure animals it doesn't scale up in hit rate, but it's great at level 7).  Druids get Wall of Stone.

10. Artificer

OK, I'll admit I'm not sure what's next.  Intuitively, on the same "party diversity" line as Druid, it feels like kicking out the last half-caster in Artificer should be a real kick to party diversity.  But...is it that bad though?  Rogues have Arcane Trickster, which...while Arcane Trickster gains spells slower than artificer, it does pick from a bigger spell list.  There's a few Monks that can cast spells.

Mmm...no, it probably is still Artificer.  Basically the only healing outside of Mercy Monk.  Has Revivify, yeah level 9 is late for revivify, but Mercy Monk doesn't get a similar feature till like level 17 or so.  Flash of Genius is good.  Has some ritual casting, even if it doesn't mean as much due to being a half-caster.  In a party full of martial characters, Spell Storing Item is great cause it lets party members who don't have a use for their concentration concentrate on something.

Artificers can also adapt on a long rest.  Swap out infusions.  Swap out spells.

Yeah, they're still not a full caster, but they bring enough more from the spellcasting side of things compared to something like an Arcane Trickster that they're probably still the ban.

11. Monk

So...both rogues and monks can heal, Rogue, you pick Thief Rogue, and you pick the healer feat, and now as a bonus action you can use an item (healing kit) to restore a bit of health to people.  But...a creature can be healed in this way only once per short rest, so it's not actually great healing.  In fact...ehh...you kinda want your bonus action for steady aim or rogue damage won't be great.  So Monk is quite a bit better at covering the healing angle.

Pass Without Trace...obviously monk can cover that with Shadow Monk.  Rogue could also cover it by picking Arcane Trickster and being an Earth Genasi.  Earth Genasi learn pass without trace and can cast once without spell slots and later through their spell slots.  But...honestly being locked into Earth Genasi is kind-of pretty bad for Rogues who lean pretty hard towards picking elf for Elven Accuracy.

What about Barbarian?  Well...Barbarians definitely add to parties like these, Barbarians hit harder, they can take more hits, they can grapple better, but do risk struggling with flying enemies cause Monk and Rogue are really not well equipped to make them fly.  (Although technically both of them can--Arcane Trickster and Four Elements Monk can both cast fly).

So...what are Barbarian's options in that regard?  Giants Barbarian is decent at throwing weapons, and Beast Barb can jump pretty high or walk on walls and upside down on ceilings (just not both at the same time).  I think you'd probably want to stick to those subclasses cause you're not getting help in terms of getting airborne, but those do happen to be two of the better barbarian subclasses anyway so you won't be too sad with those picks.

So...maybe it is Barbarian just because Barbarian is more different than the other two.

The one thing I will note is that it's not necessarily bad having an all ranged party.  Classic kiting strats are good in any movement based game.  (The one caveat being you do need to be able to switch to melee in case an enemy gets on top of you--but every remaining build can do that).

Although...classic kiting strats do call for pretty specifically monks and not rogues.  Rogues if they want to use steady aim will not be kiting.  Unless there's a melee barbarian next to their target, then they can kite while still using sneak attack although with less damage due to not having advantage, but...regardless in that scenario they don't get the benefits of doing a full party kiting strat cause the barbarian is still gonna get hit.

I dunno, maybe Rogue and Monk have so much overlap that I ought to pick Barb, but I feel like Monk is just looking all around good here.  Better at healing, better at using pass without trace without sacrificing too much of their build, better at kiting, ranged damage monk builds are keeping close enough to ranged damage rogues without sacrificing movement.  Monks also offer some funny strats like running up walls and across water and stunning enemies, which won't come up all the time, but are kind of great when they do.

12. Barbarian

If it comes down to two classes in a ban-a-thon and one of them is rogue, I suspect letting the rogue slip through is the correct choice.

Yeah, maybe Rogues are abstractly "more flexible" cause of stuff like arcane trickster.  But if a party of 4-5 mono-classed rogues ever come across a situation where they can't sneak attack, like maybe there's an enemy they just have disadvantage to attack for some reason like an invisible enemy, or maybe they all got hit by the dragon's frightful presence and the dragon is now flying, the whole party is going to deal their non-sneak attack damage and that's just a disaster.  It's a disaster because the whole party implodes at the same time.  One or two party members being ineffective in a fight is often fine in D&D, but the whole party being ultra ineffective?  That just sounds like a TPK waiting to happen.

Yeah, in a party full of barbarians you probably do want to build some Barbarians with DEX and use a bow.  But like...you know what?  That's not that bad.  Ancestral Guardian barb with a bow is honestly not awful for the same reason Echo Knight+Ancestral Guardian barb is really good.  Same idea where an enemy loses basically all their offence if they can't hit you thanks to being a ranged Ancestral Guardian; just you know...with way less damage cause you're a barb with a bow.  Zealot barbarian with a bow gets to deal their divine fury damage while raging, and...as a result actually keeps up just fine with a ranged level 11 monk or rogue.  Path of the Giant Barb's elemental cleaver similarly just works on a weapon, so they can get their fire bow or ice bow or whatever and also keep up reasonably well on damage.

Obviously don't make a fully ranged barbarian party, that would be silly.  But the point is that Barbs can diversify a bit better than rogues can--every rogue struggles at the same time if sneak attack is turned off for some reason

13. Rogue

To be clear, I don't think rogue is "bad", any more than in the FFT ban-a-thon Samurai often got banned very late, and I don't think Samurai is "bad".

Ban-a-thons just kind of get weird towards the end, and yeah, full rogue-parties just have a massive Achilles heel of if for some reason sneak attack can't be activated, the party is screwed.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: SnowFire on April 26, 2024, 05:31:14 AM
But if I'm thinking of "what's the best way to protect saving throws with Paladin and Wizard banned" it's not a bard with bardic inspiration, it's not an artificer.  It's any party member grabbing a 1 level Peace cleric dip.

I get that this is assuming a "power player" perspective, but I feel like if there's one area where this really shouldn't be assumed and the GM should step up, it'd be the Cleric class, and especially for something like Peace as a domain.  Obviously Level 1 Clerics are fairly easy to justify via backstory, but if an existing character wants to take a level in Cleric strictly for what provides the best benefits in battle, I as a DM would say great, your domain is apparently War without some really good explainin'.  (And yes, I know that 5e is a little less eager to just have the DM veto stuff, but I'd say this is an exception.)
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 26, 2024, 09:48:33 PM
Oh I mean, in terms of the DM stepping in and making a ruling, I think it's very reasonable to outright ban Peace and Twilight domain clerics, and do a small edit to what Chronurgy Wizards are allowed to do (limit Arcane Abeyance to only casting 1 action spells, for example).

But there's a problem of where exactly do you draw the line?

A DM could also reasonably ban Gloomstalker Ranger--that's probably good for the overall health of the game--and suddenly you'd see a much bigger variety of rangers, and wouldn't need to worry about designing the storyline so that the characters rarely fight in darkness.  And yeah, if Gloomstalker Ranger doesn't exist, Ranger's tier ranking probably slips.

A DM could also reasonably be like "I'm sick of seeing hexblades, no hexblades!" and yeah, that probably affects Warlock's tier rankings.  Suddenly you can't dip warlock to learn the shield spell and get proficiency in medium armor and shields.

A lot of DMs just don't allow any Wildmount content, because it tends to be really weird with the rules.  Echo Knight jumps to mind--officially the echo can move in any direction including straight up into the air, and is not a creature so can't be targeted with certain spells and doesn't trigger attacks of opportunity.  Just...weird rules-wise, independent of any balance concerns (although it's also very strong of course).  Banning wildmount content also happens to ban Chronurgist.

And...honestly, I would totally get it if a DM was like "I don't like Eloquence bard; when there's an Eloquence Bard in the party, the rest of the party stops talking in social situations cause they know the bard can't fail".

And...I could see a DM objecting to Moon Druid at some very specific levels (level 2 one-shots.  Level 20 one-shots).

And...some DMs do ban Conjure Animals and similar spells just because it takes too long to resolve the actions of 16 summons (less of an issue on some digital tabletops).

I guess I can't really imagine a DM banning any additional subclasses beyond those 9, however.

I suppose I could do a second ban-a-thon assuming those 9 subclasses are off the table (Chronurgist, Echo Knight, Graviturgist, Peace, Twilight, Gloomstalker, Hexblade, Eloquence, Moon).  Also additionally banning any spells from wildmount, and any swarm style playstyles (conjure animals.  Creating skeleton armies with animate dead.  Etc).
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 26, 2024, 11:24:01 PM
D&D 5e

Second ban-a-thon with different rules

This time, with any subclass a DM could reasonably object to excluded (Chronurgist, Echo Knight, Graviturgist, Peace, Twilight, Gloomstalker, Hexblade, Eloquence, Moon).  Wildmount spells excluded.  And swarm strategies that can take too long at tables excluded (conjure animals with 16 animals.  Animate Dead with large numbers of skeleton archers).

1. Paladin
Paladin was the first ban on the previous list, so yeah, guess what, it's still going to be the first ban on this list too cause there's still no replacement for the Paladin aura, and Paladin is somehow very minimally hurt by all the bans.  The Hexblade ban makes paladin a little bit sad cause they can't attack with Charisma, but otherwise Paladin is largely unaffected, and a 2 level dip in Warlock for eldritch blast is still a perfectly reasonable way to build around Charisma.

2. Wizard
Are Rangers still good without Gloomstalker?  Yeah, they're still good.  But they don't necessarily stand out as the stand-alone choice for concentrating on pass without trace.

Whereas banning Wizard does make a party struggle a bit more with easily getting rituals, getting access to nice utility spells like passwall and arcane eye.  They can still do it, but at a notable cost.

And like...yeah, Chronurgist Wizard shenanigans aren't boosting Wizard anymore, but dipping 2 levels of Wizard for War Wizard to get +4 to saves as a reaction is certainly is still a thing that characters might want to consider.

It's also worth noting, in a big enough party you probably want someone with high INT and good INT saves.  You want someone to not get shut down by a Mindflayer's Mind Blast, who can prevent a TPK in a situation like that.  Obviously an Artificer can fill that role, but "a typical artificer is a downgrade from a typical wizard" is not a super hot take.

3. Sorcerer

So...I was starting to think if one of Fighter or Ranger should be up next but...no, now that I'm looking through the options I'm pretty sure it's sorcerer.

If hexblade is banned, and wizard is banned, suddenly the sorcerer is the only easy way to get the shield spell.  (Other sources would be 3 levels of artificer, or the Githzerai race, or 6 levels of Lore bard, or 10 levels of any other bard).

I've heard the shield spell called "mandatory for optimisation", and do see 1 level sorcerer dips pretty often on optimised clerics, druids, etc.

Pretty sure banning sorcerer hurts the most here.

4. Ranger

So...what's going on on the mage side?  If you want shield...you can make a bard, probably specifically a lore bard or else you wouldn't get it till level 10.  Or you can pick the Githzerai race.  Or you can dip 3 levels of artificer, which...honestly, artillerist artificer is not a bad 3 level dip, the protector cannon is quite good, but you would mostly want to do this on a class that focused more on upcasting than getting new high level spells (so like Cleric could do it I suppose).

I don't know that there's an obvious ban that really hurts here, though.  Even if you really feel you have to incorporate shield into the build, Githzerai are right there.  Bard and Druid have notably more diverse spell lists than Cleric, so I think once one of them is banned the other gets banned, but I don't think either one sticks out right now.

Warlock...exists.  Bard dips into warlock are a lot less attractive when they can't get medium armor and shields out of the deal, granted.  There's no hexblade so I am very unconcerned about warlocks outstripping martials for damage.  Maybe there's a case that some mono-classed warlock would be very much missed?  Like Geenie maybe?  Dunno.

What's going on on the martial side?  The general plan of being a martial with a ranged attack who just spends their concentration on Pass Without Trace and shoots things is still a good plan.  Hmm...if ranger does it, what subclass would be the pick?  I guess Swarmkeeper makes the most sense to me?  Just...good cost-free stuff to do when you hit.  And you'd probably do some multiclassing once you got level 5 in ranger.  A shadow monk can also do it, and then also probably multiclasses after level 6.

I think of note is that both of these builds probably do dip into fighter if they're looking for the most damage--fighter offers action surge and subclasses.  Specifically battlemaster fighter is a good damage dip.  Whereas the monk probably now is uninterested in dipping into Ranger, and the Ranger is similarly uninterested in dipping into Monk.

That said, either of these builds ignoring fighter and multiclassing rogue instead doesn't sound unreasonable to me.  I also think banning fighter hurts the monk build more than the ranger build--the ranger already has archery fighting style, and even continuing with mono-class ranger is not outlandish--the new 10th level ranger feature from Tasha's is very good (bonus action invisibility so advantage on your attacks).

I'm also kind-of thinking that the ranger is...while the gap is smaller than the gap between Gloomstalker and Shadow Monk, I do think there's still a gap there.  Ranger can be a healer and a pass without trace spammer and have archery fighting style and extra attack all by level 5.  Monk can get all those things, but either not on the same subclass, or needs multiclassing and comes together at higher levels. Plus rangers get some extra bonuses on hit from being a swarmkeeper, while also having some other nice stuff like expertise in a skill and some free casting of information gathering spells.  Oh and d10 HP.  Rangers would also have an easier time benefitting from Shield if they did pick it up from somewhere (a multiclass or a race).

There is alternatively the option to be an artificer with a race that can cast Pass Without Trace (Earth Genasi).  But...there's no fighting style that comes with being an artificer so you'd need to dip for that.  Being an Earth Genasi comes at a cost of not being variant human.  And artificers have fewer features built around weapon attacks (e.g. 3rd level feature of rangers often gives bonuses for making weapon attacks.  All rangers get a 10th level feature that's very good for weapon attacks).

Yeah, I think Rangers are still noticeably standing out on the weapon attack side, whereas nothing else is ultra standing out.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 27, 2024, 06:38:14 AM
D&D 5e

Second ban-a-thon with different rules

(banning some problem subclasses and spells)

5. Warlock

So...I don't think any of the builds that try to incorporate pass without trace into a build that is otherwise a martial character are all that overwhelmingly good at this point.  It's like...Earth Genasi Eldritch Knight, Earth Genasi Artificer, Shadow Monk.

Eldritch Knight does end up dealing the most of these but only by a substantial margin at level 11.

What about builds that don't shoehorn in Pass Without Trace?

So...one thing that's interesting is that Warlock in general between levels 7-10 actually mildly outdamages ranged fighter assuming they use a basic Tasha's summon spell and eldritch blast.  And that's without using their bonus action (which could be used for various things, but shoves from the telekinetic feat seem like an okay choice).  And presumably you're getting some value out of stuff like Repelling Blast as well.  The summons last an hour, and two can be used per short rest, and there's a flying one with 150 foot range (Summon Aberration Beholderkin).

Fighter does pull back into the lead generally as a ranged damage dealer at level 11, when they get their third attack, and around when +2 magic gear become available.  But Warlock also has additional things going on at level 11 (a 3rd spell slot per short rest, which could be used on an AoE spell like fireball or synaptic static.  A 6th level mystic arcanum).

Warlock is an okay dip on Bard, obviously, but also 1 level of Undead Warlock is a pretty reasonable dip on any ranged attacker (when you hit with an attack, you have a chance to cause the frightened condition which means that enemy can't approach and wastes their turn).

So ok, by comparison, what is fighter better at?  Fighter arguably has a better plan for using Pass Without Trace in Earth Genasi Eldritch Knight.  Fighter is also a good dip on a lot of builds--the one remaining way to get a fighting style for example.  Lots of builds want the 2nd level of fighter too for action surge.  Lots of builds want the 3rd level of fighter too for battle master.  Fighter/Barbarian is good damage, although forced to be melee which comes with limitations, and doesn't have the option of incorporating concentration cause rage is incompatible with that--not the end of the world, but limiting.

I guess...how much damage is gained by being a level 13 build that is Barbarian 2, Fighter 11, and assuming that rage and reckless attack are being used?  Hm....honestly it's pretty substantial.  Like...compared to a Fighter 11 just using hand crossbows without advantage, it's like 46 damage to 68.  But...of course, with all the downsides outlined (Enforced melee build.  Rage won't always be up, only 2 uses in this case.  If you have any spellcasting can't concentrate while raging.  Enemies hit back hard when you reckless attack.  Won't deal this damage round 1 cause bonus action is used raging.  Ranged builds can get advantage themselves on occasion, and they'll be around 67 damage per round when they do).

I guess...one other question is how much damage is gained by that build being multiclass?  So damaged gained by being Barbarian 2 Fighter 11 instead of just Barbarian 13?

Well...with no subclass (which I think is fair cause I assumed no subclass for fighter) I've got about...56 damage for the barbarian.  But I mean, add in various miscellaneous goodies.  5 rages instead of 2.  +10 feet movement.  Advantage on initiative.  Move up to half your movement when you enter a rage.  A couple of skill checks.  Some durability boosting (more HP, and if you drop to 0 HP, sometimes stay at 1 HP instead).

If we add in subclasses, something like Zealot can add about 10 damage per round.  Battlemaster using precision attacks is going to add something like 90 damage per short rest--so it depends how much combat you have between short rests, really, but subclasses adding similar-ish amounts I think.

So I mean...the fighter multiclass looks a little better overall than the mono-class barb, but like...I think it's close enough that a fighter ban doesn't substantially hurt barbarian.

Is there a world where the ban is just barbarian, though?  I'm thinking very specifically of Giants barbarian here.  They are one of the higher damage barb subclasses.  And they are also very good at thrown weapons--a lot of melee builds suffer if the enemy flies or is too far away, and fighting at range still isn't ideal for them, but they're a lot better than all other barbs.

Mmm...not sure.  Like...Rune Knight also makes a solid melee fighter.  It doesn't pump out the same sustained damage in the absence of reckless attack, but getting advantage at melee isn't too hard--can just replace a weapon attack with a shove prone.  And Rune Knight even without getting advantage can still burst a bit harder with action surge if needed.  And as far as melee builds go, there's cleric too--they're more AoE, but tend to be in melee for sure.

Mmm...no, I don't think the ban is a melee build.

Which brings me back to ranged damage, and brings me back to warlock, with relatively low investment, like not even using their bonus action (just a Tasha's Summon Undead or Summon Aberration) dealing more ranged damage than fighter builds levels 7-10, and only slightly less at 11+, but with the compensation of an additional 5th level slot every short rest, and Mystic Arcanum.

I guess the one case for fighter is that specifically battlemaster, and maybe also samurai are more damage-focused subclasses.  Whereas something like Geenie is adding 4 damage per round.  But...I think claiming either of those subclasses add more than Geenie overall is a bit of a tough sell.  Geenie gets to fly concentration free a lot.  Geenie gets to pull the party into their geenie vessel (which can be a ring worn by an invisible familiar) and give the full party a 10 minute short rest.

Is there any obvious ban in full caster land?  Mmm...honestly, I feel like Druid and Bard are sufficiently evenly matched for now.  Like Bard thanks to magical secrets will end up with slightly better spells.  But Druid ends up with slightly better subclasses (I'm looking at something like Wildfire Druid compared to something like Glamour Bard.  They both are good at repositioning lots of allies, but Wildfire is a bit better at it because they don't use a limited resource and the allies don't use their reaction, and wildfire has a bunch of other really good subclass abilities like extra spells prepared--not all of those spells are good, but we can probably think of that as +5 spell preparations).

So...yeah, think it's warlock.

6. Fighter

So...okay, with warlock gone, it's probably fighter next right?  Like...last easy access to fighting styles.  Best range damage.  Action Surge good.

Even for Pass Without Trace builds...while no pass without trace bot build is super impressive, I do think Earth Genasi Eldritch Knight does it okay, and brings notably more damage than options like Shadow Monk with no access to fighter or ranger dips, and more damage than Earth Genasi Artificers (for all that artificers bring more support).

I don't think anything has really changed on the caster end in terms of anything super needing a ban.  Bard might care about the loss of warlock some, but I do still think the mono class bard and mono class Druid comparison doesn't look like the gaps are all that large.  And Cleric is in the mix there somewhere too muddying the waters.

7. Barbarian

I think it's around this time last time that I banned Bard for filling in gaps in the spell list thanks to magical secrets.  But...I'm feeling this less this time, maybe because there's more casters still left un-banned thanks to Cleric being around, so like if you want something like spirit guardians you don't need to grab it through magical secrets.

And also...now that I've run a few more numbers, I'm really extra side-eyeing barbarian.  Like...yeah, sure, the damage a rogue or a gun wielding monk can do is fine, and it's ranged, that's very important, but Barbarians are beating the damage by 60% (before subclass considerations).  And like...one of the highest damage subclasses (Giant Barbarian) also specializes in having additional reach and throwing weapons so isn't too vulnerable to the things that normally plague melee builds like being stuck out of range.

And with fighter banned there's no longer something like a rune knight you can make if you want a melee character.

Just feels like the ban that will be hardest to replace among remaining classes is Barbarian.  Not necessarily that what it's doing is the most powerful thing, but damage is valuable and it is the hardest to replicate among remaining classes.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 27, 2024, 08:23:09 AM
D&D 5e

Second ban-a-thon with different rules

(banning some problem subclasses and spells this time so that they don't make the list weird)


8. Bard

So I mean, is there a case to just ban out remaining martials?  Ehhh...there's still artificers and even some Bard subclasses with extra attack, and like...dealing damage with spells sure is a thing too.  These options won't deal as much as a monk or a rogue, but they won't be lightyears behind.

But it is worth keeping an eye on damage options still--with the assumption that summons that summon 8+ units being off the table, in addition to that blocking conjure animals, this rule also blocks animate objects, so it is pretty hard for spellcasters to deal single-target damage.

Actually, one sec, I want to check how much of a ranged single target damage dealer Cleric can be with Summon Celestial and a cantrip (Toll the Dead I guess, with Blessed Strikes).  Mmm...ok same general ballpark, but slightly less damage than a steady aim rogue, or a gunner Monk staying at range.  (Calculated at level 11, although admittedly not using a 6th level slot; 4th or 5th level.  Came out about 33 damage).

More damage than a ranged artificer though, lol.  And admittedly the versatility is nice--Cleric is mostly about the melee AoE damage, but can switch comfortably to ranged singletarget, and keep up with...well, what's left of the damage builds anyway.

Granted, I did ban warlock earlier in a similar position, but warlock was actually out-damaging fighter for noticeable level stretches, while also getting utility like shoves.  Cleric is still dealing less ranged damage than monk/rogue, with a lot less shoving, and it still comes fairly late (level 9--warlock had summons starting at level 5).  But it's enough that I don't really think we're looking at monk or rogue for a ban right now.

So...yeah, we're probably looking at a caster then.  And...it's probably Bard again for the same reasons as before.  Last real motivation to build CHA (having someone in the party with CHA is valuable).  Magical Secrets makes them the only place to get...well a lot of spells that are locked out due to previous bans on Warlock/Wizard/Sorcerer, like Counterspell for example.  Bardic inspiration is the best remaining way to protect party member saving throws.

9. Druid

With Bard gone there is some real thought about whether Artificer should go next.  They are sort-of worse bards, but there's a lot of the same arguments around them.  Last way to build INT.  Last way to protect party saving throws.

The case for clerics is as follows: they are pretty monstrous early, level 1-4 when their weapon attacks are fine and they get to have spells on top of solid attacks, especially picking something like a Light cleric can really emphasize how good they are at low levels.  And they do eventually keep up just fine on ranged damage through stuff like Summon Celestial.

The case for Druids are as follows: clerics tend to be the most straightforward damage dealing of the casters.  Not one of them gets Wall of Stone.  Only Tempest gets Sleet Storm.  Only Trickery gets Polymorph.  Only Trickery gets Pass Without Trace.  Only Nature Domain gets Plant Growth.  Clerics mostly can't teleport party members out of danger--granted most druids can't either, but I'd be inclined to pick up Wildfire Druid in a party like this, and they're teleport city.  Clerics are mostly damage dealers, a role that monk and rogue already fill.  (Well Clerics heal too, but so do Druids).

Yeah, I find that pretty compelling--despite both being full casters, Druid spends more time doing a more supporting role, which is more of the unique thing that would be hard to replace in this party.  Cleric can probably be argued the overall best damage dealer among remaining classes, but that is replaceable at the end of the day.

Actually, worth noting, Druid gets pretty good summon X options from Tasha's.  Like...I knew about Summon Beast and Summon Fey, but sort-of wrote them off as not great due to struggling with damage resistances.  There's summon elemental too-but that one also seems like it would struggle with damage resistances.  But I didn't realize but Druids do get Summon Draconic Spirit from Fizzban's and that one is uh...quite good.  Makes a 30 foot cone breath weapon attack on top of the normal attacks for a summon (and you can pick basically any element).  Has 3 more AC than a typical Tasha's summon, and 5 damage resistances (you pick from 10 actually).  10 more HP than Summon Celestial.  Yeah.  Not ranged, granted, and the claws can be resisted, but nonetheless arguably the best summon.

10. Cleric

Is this where I just say "Cleric is the last full caster, and you want a diverse party, so it's the next to go?"

Hmm...I mean, I think Artificers are in the conversation here.  Not really because of their spellcasting, I mean, yeah, they get wizard spells like Fly and Haste, but there's no way that would keep up with Cleric--just half caster things where these spells are way less exciting when they use your highest level spell slot at level 9.  That said, they do get Web at level 5, and then can infuse Pipes of Haunting at level 6.  And can infuse winged boots at level 10.  And then at level 11 with spell storing item can have any martial that's not using their concentration concentrate on Web.

And...yeah, that is somewhat compelling, that maybe artificers bring more of what the party is lacking to the table.

But...I think some cleric subclasses just end up bailing out clerics here.  Trickery Domain cleric in particular with Polymorph, Dimension Door, Pass Without Trace.  Order Domain Cleric brings Slow, and...like...it's not the greatest combo or anything, but Order Domain Cleric can give a reaction attack to a rogue letting them sneak attack a second time, which...there's only four classes left, you probably do have a rogue in the party.

And there's just the part where Clerics are unusually good at low levels, good equipment, getting most of their key spells very early.  And outdamaging certainly ranged Artificers once they get Summon Celestial.

And there's the part where AoE damage is certainly a role that is sometimes good to fill, and Cleric fills that role.  Not that artificers are without AoE--pipes of haunting is AoE status.  Web is AoE status.  In the end it's all crowd control and mook clearing.  But Spirit Guardians is pretty good at clearing out mooks, and sometimes it's better to kill them than to just hold them in place.

Artificers keep it somewhat close, they do bring a lot of battlefield control support kind of moves, but yeah I think they're still overall outclassed by Clerics.

11. Artificer

They are the one remaining utility and battlefield control source, so just a prime choice to ban next.  Monk and Rogue kinda similar to each other so neither ban is all that painful.

12. Monk

Yeah, as discussed in the first list, all-Rogue party just unusually vulnerable, so anything else will get banned before them.  And...also as discussed in the first list, Monk fills a lot of the missing roles better--better healer than any monk, better pass without trace bot, better at kiting cause they don't rely on Steady Aim.  Have funny tactics with running up walls and across water.

13. Rogue

All Rogue party, if there's ever something preventing them from sneak attacking (attacking at range with disadvantage) are at serious risk of TPK.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on April 27, 2024, 10:34:47 PM
So...random observations.

Barbarian was banned a lot earlier on the second list--does this mean it should be banned earlier on the first list too?  And the conclusion I came to was no, because on the first list spells were doing a lot of singletarget damage thanks to Conjure Animals and Animate Objects.  Both are conditionally high damage (melee damage in general falls under a similar category--conditionally high damage).  And by the time Druid got banned on the first list, we entered a weird scenario where the party was just desperate for some versatility, which is not Barbarian's forte.

Another thing worth thinking about--I think there might be a world where Warlock moves above ranger on the second list.  The more I think about it, warlock can cover a lot of bases.  Like...with wizard gone, warlock is a reasonable one to cover rituals with pact of the tome.  With pact of the chain, warlock can have an invisible scout that can travel a long distance from them, kind of like a permanent arcane eye that doesn't take a spell slot.  Yeah, warlock is probably not the one concentrating on pass without trace, but it can fill various other utility and scouting roles that the party still very much needs to fill, the same way the party wants someone concentrating on PWT.

EDIT: yeah, I think Warlock does compare favourably damage-wise to a fighter who slows down their build by taking the ritual-caster feat.  (Favourably in terms of ranged damage--at least for a while cause they delay getting to 20 DEX for so long, eventually at the 4th ASI the fighter can pull into the lead).

There's still an argument for ranger here, and it's that yeah, you want someone with rituals, and yeah, you want someone concentrating on PWT for the party, but the gap between Warlock and a fighter with the ritual caster feat is maybe smaller than the gap between a ranger and...say, an Earth Genasi Eldritch Knight fighter, which is a larger gap.  And...yes, that does sound correct.  Fighter spends its subclass and its race learning PWT and getting enough spell slots to keep PWT up, but Ranger just has those things already, and can dedicate race to damage and subclass to damage and/or nice attack riders.

Funnily enough, one of the flashier builds involve Ranger dipping into warlock (Fey Wanderer Ranger taking a 1 level Undead Warlock dip to trigger beguiling twist).  Which...obviously doesn't help pick between the two.  But I think there's enough solid ranger builds that don't need warlock that the case is still reasonably strong.
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 04, 2024, 04:15:54 AM
D&D Ban-a-thon

Mmm...yeah, I think I am convinced for the second list (the one with peace cleric gloomstalker etc banned) that Warlock should slide ahead of ranger.

So

1. Paladin
2. Wizard
3. Sorcerer
4. Warlock
5. Ranger
6. Fighter
7. Barbarian
8. Bard
9. Druid
10. Cleric
11. Artificer
12. Monk
13. Rogue

For that list.

---

Meanwhile though, for the first list, where classes get credit for even just dips into their most busted subclasses...I think I'm underselling just how unreasonable the peace cleric dip is.

Like it's hard to get an exact number on Gloomstalker Ranger's output, but lets just say it's advantage on attacks.  Sometimes it will be more than that (when you fight in darkness and also benefit from the 3rd attack) sometimes it will be less (when you only get the first round bonuses).  But let's call advantage the net output average.

Anyway, if you assume all that, how much damage does a Peace Cleric's Emboldening Bond add assuming you can leverage the 10 minute duration and get it up in advance of the combat?  Well...if you have two people with power attacks (great weapon master or sharpshooter) the net amount of contribution of Emboldening Bond to damage is pretty similar to the gap between a gloomstalker and...let's say a Earth Genasi Eldritch Knight.  And it obviously is good for saving throws and some skill checks (although I have seen it argued that since the d4 can only be added once per turn that it doesn't apply to initiative as that happens outside of the normal turn order).  So...yeah, I think I should slide Cleric up on that list.

I suppose there's maybe an argument to slide Cleric above Paladin as well, cause Peace Cleric is just that unreasonable.  But...I don't know, Paladin is a bigger saving throw boost, and has good subclass auras, and with a few more paladin levels can give fear immunity to the party.  And there's no risk of not having the feature up, it's always up.

So...sliding peace cleric upwards that would make the list with all the busted subclasses credited:

1. Paladin
2. Cleric
3. Ranger
4. Wizard
5. Fighter
6. Warlock
7. Sorcerer
8. Bard
9. Druid
10. Artificer
11. Monk
12. Barbarian
13. Rogue
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 06, 2024, 09:13:55 AM
So ok, thinking more on the two ban-a-thon lists.

I think for the first list (where no subclass or spell is banned)...it probably also makes sense to not ban any racial selections.  So, for example, flying races would be legal.

At a glance this might seem like a boost for light armor types, your monks and rogues.  But the problem comes with the Winged Tiefling, who also functions in medium armor, although with some mild downsides compared to other flying races.  This would not apply to legacy content, so no 50 foot flyspeed Aarakokra, but winged tieflings are technically not legacy content as nothing has replaced them.

What implications would this have for the order of the list?  Well...if there's any point where I'm thinking about taking Earth Genasi or Githzerai for Pass Without Trace or Shield...yeah, screw that you almost certainly want a flying race instead.  Additionally, I think there is some opportunity for the Barbarian to move up--I sort of dismissed the Barbarian damage as fairly conditional due to being melee on the first list, and it is pretty conditional, but it's a lot less conditional if you fly.

That said, no changes to the top 5 I think

1. Paladin
2. Cleric
3. Ranger
4. Wizard
5. Fighter

Paladin is too hard to replace.  Peace Cleric dips still busted.  Gloomstalker Ranger still busted.  Wizard still brings a lot of unique spells and no investment ritual casting, and Chronurgy is busted at level 10 and 2 level wizard dips are pretty good.  Echo Knight is still busted.

Next up I decided that Sorcerer/Warlock needed to be broken up, and that is probably still true.  Ranged is still generally preferable to melee even when you have the option of flight.  That said, some of the value of Warlock was probably coming from Geenie Warlock getting really good flight at level 6, so is there a chance it's Sorcerer first this time?  Hmm...no, I think the logic still holds that...replacing Sorcerer with Bard is fairly painless especially if you still have Warlock around to grab the shield spell from Hexblade.  But banning warlock stops the Sorcerer/Warlock teamup, and hurts Bard a decent amount.

6. Warlock

And yeah, the general logic of once there's only one class with easy dippable access to the shield spell, ban that class still sounds pretty good to me.  1 level Sorcerer dip is good for a lot of reasons--sorcerers have proficiency in CON saving throws.  By picking Divine Soul you get a bit of extra protection on your saving throws.  Just good.

7. Sorcerer

---

I think here, though, after Warlock and Sorcerer might be a logical place to stick flying barbarians?

Is the gap between Bards and Druids really all that large?  I kind-of feel like it's not.  Like...they probably both want to be winged tieflings, and that means the only way the Bard picks up the shield spell reasonably early is by being a Lore Bard, but then they don't have medium armor proficiency unless they dip for that or spend their level 4 feat on it, and one way or another that puts them either behind by a feat or behind by a level of spellcasting progression.  And...I mean, also Lore Bard other than being able to pick up shield early is a fairly generic subclass, whereas Druid has flashy subclasses.  So...yeah, not really convinced banning one of either Bard or Druid really hurts all that much, but Barbarian does have a notable niche of hitting very hard.

And I mean, there's still damage comparisons to Conjure Animals from Druid I guess, but the thing is the Barbarian damage is now much less conditional, they can hit flying enemies cause they fly, whereas Conjure Animals damage drops against flying enemies.  (Also drops against a lot of enemies with damage resistance if you're any subclass not named Shepherd).

Yeah, I do think Barbarian can now stand out as the remaining class whose effects are hardest to replace.

8. Barbarian

So I mean, here's a question, is it even still Bard next?  I think being really strongly encouraged to be a Winged Tiefling while having most of your good dipping opportunities taken away is kind of rough for bard, cause if they want to keep up on spell progression, it wouldn't be until level 12 that they get the three feats together Resillient CON, Moderately Armored, and Warcaster.

So like...what are their options even?  They can't dip fighter, which would cover medium armor and CON saves.  But they could dip Artificer.  And dipping 1 level of Artificer isn't bad at all, keeps full spell slot progression, even though they'll be behind on spells they actually know.

But then here's where we start talking a little bit about pointbuy.  Like...ideally to dip artificer you would like to end up with 16 CON, 16 CHA, 14 DEX, and 13 INT, but you can't actually pointbuy enough stats for that (while only using the +2/+1 from winged tiefling).  You need to either drop CON to 14 or drop DEX to 12.  DEX seems like the clear choice.

But...Druid is just kind of looking more attractive to me at this point.  Doesn't have these rough build choices.  Does have Conjure Animals, which...while it is somewhat conditional, is now kind of the way to deal big damage with Barbarian gone, even if it won't work in every fight.

9. Druid

So...what's after Druid?  I mean, it's probably just Bard right?  Like there are bards with extra attack who could build dex and do standard ranged attack stuff.  And a low CHA Bard will still bring plenty of utility (and eventually Animate Objects, which is a remaining monster damage spell).

10. Bard

And then surely it's Artificer next yeah?  I mean, the value of Winged Boots goes down when people just pick flying races, but yes I suspect it still is.  Monks and Rogues can't really deal with groups of enemies, Artificers have AoE effects, either from infusions like Pipes of Haunting or their own spells.  And Monks and Rogues are kind-of very similar to each other.

11. Artificer

12. Monk

13. Rogue
Title: Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
Post by: metroid composite on May 08, 2024, 01:15:53 AM
Starcraft:

Guardians vs Protoss in CNSL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwrD-hyB100

(CNSL basically being the league for everyone who just barely doesn't make the cut in ASL).