Godlike
Heat (Digital Devil Saga) vs Lamington (Disgaea: Hour of Darkness) - Heat reflects Lamington's best damage, and status won't be landing on Heat. Feels pretty clear-cut. Oh and any counter hype can die in a fire because pre-5 Disgaea counters only apply to basic attacks. [EDIT] i'm an idiot who misremembered shit, nevermind me.
Belial (Wild ARMs 4) vs Ryu (Breath of Fire IV) - RPGVO rules are not in play, 4D Pocket is in.
Heavy
Mei-ling (SaGa Frontier) vs Mystic Knight (Final Fantasy V) - I'm feeling quite certain light sword parry is a good counter to MK's bullshit.
Temenos Mistral(Octopath Traveler II) vs Kyra Tierney (Phantasy Star IV) - This one is open to interps either way pending on which average you take for OT2 damage (I go for the three-turn one myself. Your mileage and/or interps may vary, of course).
Kyra herself at worst is going to be swapping over to the Reflect Robe, and under 3TA, will actually want to ditch the Psy-Shield for a slasher. Under that, her MDUR drops to 1.09, meaning Temenos will need ~8573 damage. Bindwa for four turns of course means that Temenos is just not getting anything out of his debuffs. And unfortunately for Temenos, even the biggest setups he can do for a Heavenly Shine at max BP can either be healed off in a single Res casting (80 HP recovery versus ~64 PSIV HP in the case of a 2BP Holy Light), or just misses the one-round KO (Hasted 0BP Holy Light->3BP Heavenly Shine does 8182 to the necessary 8573 to kill under these averages).
Which would in turn put Temenos at a bit of a problem. Her healing runs deeper than his damage (52 shots of Holy Light versus 57 shots of Res and 24 shots of Medice), the threat of Heavenly Shine only diminishes as the match goes on, and only one of them has their physical damage not absolutely nulled by a stacked PSIV DEF buff/ATK debuff. Very good match.
(Notes for other setups: Kyra swapping to Reflect Robe and a second Reflect Shield gives her a MDUR of 1.338. Missing the all-important number of 1.337 by a thousandth aside, this would mean she needs, pending on average, anywhere from 8359 to 10523 OT2 damage to take down strictly via magic. On the other hand, this also now makes her subject to the possibility of running out of offense entirely, which could lead to a stalemate.)
Byakuren Hijiri (Labyrinth of Touhou) vs Anna Pascal (Triangle Strategy) - Unfortunately, Byakuren's duel setup here is set up specifically for her physical skills, and her only multitarget is Magic Milky Way, which is more used for debuffs than damage. She's also slower and the physical weakness doesn't help one bit.
Middle
Minoriko Aki (Labyrinth of Touhou 2) vs Createur Rosenqueen (Rhapsody II: Ballad of the Little Princess) - i have precisely no idea of what Createur's statline is even like, I can't vote on this without some info.
Rinkah (Fire Emblem Fates) vs Divine Punisher Shaman (Etrian Odyssey V) - Rinkah is very antiphysical, going by the stat topic. A single Mana Oracle will overkill her through that 0.64 MDUR, without needing Ruinous Prayer's boosting.
Dedue Molinaro (Fire Emblem Three Houses) vs Kyrie (Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark) - This one's tricky, though I do suspect that the Slow counters and MDEF-targeting beams tilt this one in Kyrie's favor.
Light
Mediator (Final Fantasy Tactics) vs Heather (Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn) - I'll buy Threaten hype.
Vitali (Soul Nomad & The World Eaters) vs Zelkov (Fire Emblem Engage) - Vitali eating a bad matchup now after getting carried by a Best one last match. Such is the fate of Soul Nomad duellers.
