Author Topic: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one  (Read 46409 times)

metroid composite

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #150 on: May 23, 2016, 03:49:10 PM »
Also you missed to option of burning Wall Steet to the ground.

"Ban all derivatives" is pretty close to that.  I mean, I probably oversimplified when I called derivatives in general bad.  This technically include Forwards, Futures, Mortgage backed securities, Options, Swaps, Hedging....  Like...Hedging as a way of adding market stability to a wheat farmer is fine--if the price of wheat goes down, the wheat farmer gets some money from the hedge and doesn't go bankrupt.

It's when you start getting into derivatives on derivatives on derivatives where there's a pretty big problem.

The one thing where I think I need to disagree is your description of Hillary as charismatic.  Granted, I haven't looked too closely at her, but what I've seen and heard generally agree around the idea that she's less charismatic and more simply adept at interpersonal skills.  To use a 3E analogy, her Cha modifier isn't terribly strong, but the Politician class allows access to the social skills, and she's maxed them all out.  And with all her experience over the decades, she's leveled up enough to make that formidable.

I'm almost tempted to edit this in as a factual correction >_>
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 03:53:22 PM by metroid composite »

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #151 on: May 23, 2016, 04:32:09 PM »
I disagree completely with this.

Florida would be way better off underwater.

Also you missed to option of burning Wall Steet to the ground.

Hey bro why u gotta do me like that bro. Bro...

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #152 on: May 23, 2016, 08:19:17 PM »
I'm not sure your statement about college students playing more video games is valid. I suspect it's rather that "people aged 18-23 from the socio-economic backgrounds that typically go to college play a lot of games". That said, I suppose that giving such people more money/time by paying for their school would likely cause them to play more video games, so the end result of your argument is likely correct.

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It's when you start getting into derivatives on derivatives on derivatives where there's a pretty big problem.

Well yeah, there's a reason we call these jerks.

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NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #153 on: May 23, 2016, 08:41:36 PM »
Just want to stick up for Breyer, who was the Democratically-appointed dissenter in Brown v. EMA.  So there are two dissents, one by Breyer and one by Thomas, and if you've only ever heard about the Thomas one, that's because it's insane, and Breyer's is not.  Breyer agrees with the majority that video games are a protected First Amendment form of expression, and must be treated as such (except to the extent they have physical conduct components) meaning any law regulating them must be narrowly tailored to meet a substantial government interest.  Where Breyer breaks from the majority is he says this law passes the test, by applying the settled Constitutional rule that minors have reduced First Amendment rights to speech aimed at minors rather than solely at speech performed by minors.  Hence upholding a civil fine for sales of GTAV to 10-year-olds.  This is debatable but not crazy.  Thomas...haha, Thomas just goes out and says that speech performed by minors and speech aimed at minors has no First Amendment protection whatsoever, meaning it can be banned and regulated however the state pleases.  This is crazy.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 08:43:15 PM by NotMiki »
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #154 on: May 24, 2016, 01:40:21 AM »
Terry Mcaulliffe being investigated is slightly less surprising than the sun rising in the east.  Oh boy, two straight governors who could end up in jail!
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NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #155 on: May 24, 2016, 02:15:56 AM »
Virginia is for graft lovers
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SnowFire

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #156 on: May 24, 2016, 05:28:05 PM »
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Notice that so far there isn’t a political party here.  LGBT rights are more often supported by democrats, but Dick Cheny was the first VP to support gay marriage.  Democrat Bill Clinton passed the largest modern anti-gay legislation in DOMA and DADT.  So we really need to look at the individual politician, not the party.

Not really.  This is like pointing to some Republican who raised taxes and a Democrat who cut taxes to prove that taxation isn't really about party.  But it obviously is; the Democrats are, in general, a lot more likely to raise taxes and the Republicans to cut them.  And often the "Exceptions" are cases where there was an overwhelming bipartisan consensus that this was a good idea or really necessary, aka cases where politics doesn't come into play too much.  If there's a budget crisis, even a Republican might raise taxes.  If there's a regressive stupid tax on the poor, the Dems will cut it.

It may be hard to remember now, but DOMA was a noncontroversial, hugely bipartisan bill in Congress.  Absolutely nobody of that era wanted Hawaii imposing radical gay marriage craziness on every other state, and DOMA was narrowly tailored enough to "solve" this pressing concern.  It was, however, largely a conservative directed moral panic, just one that, in that era, the liberal side had little cause to dispute.  There were other problems to fight and there wasn't a moral case in favor of gay marriage yet.  So blame the Dems of that era if you want, but it seems unlikely that had there been an overwhelming Dem majority in Congress that they'd have cared enough to pass it.

DADT I think you're being very unfair on.  As a reminder, before DADT, the standard was that homosexuality was grounds for dismissal from the armed services.  Clinton actually looked into abolishing this in 1992, which caused a backlash freak-out, and the threat of Congressional override which would make the situation *worse* (the old bad practice codified into law).  What Clinton did was quite an ingenious compromise that was broadly popular in the era: he left the fig leaf of homosexuality still being grounds for dismissal, but removed the ability to actually investigate it.  It doesn't take a genius to guess what would happen 10-15 years later after more gay officers had risen through the ranks and had the ability to have their private life be secret go away.  So in short, DADT was progressive-for-the-era, and also nearly guaranteed its own eventual repeal. 

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Government control can mean government tyranny.  Now, normally in a democracy, tyranny won’t hurt the majority population.

This is a side nitpick, but answer is "it depends a lot."  Apartheid South Africa was a democracy that wasn't particularly friendly to its majority population.  Any time you have a democracy where the majority for whatever reason doesn't vote / can't vote / has less political power, you can see this.

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Short Selling is banned in lots of countries–why is it legal in the US?

It actually is highly regulated & restricted, possibly too much so!  So devil's advocate:
1) I propose "bubbles" are generally bad.  If the "fair" price of cheese is 10 dollars, and there's a rush on cheese with people buying cheese at 15 dollars and hoping to sell at 20 dollars, followed by a crash to 8 dollars, this is pointless churn.  Replace "cheese" with "housing / real estate" and you have 2003-2007.
2) Short selling allows canny investors to "pop" bubbles early, and be rewarded for doing so, so that they don't get TOO big and have even worse consequences later.  Why should only positivity be allowed?  There should be ways to bet the price of something will drop.  This is a valuable signal the market needs.

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From what I can tell, ban derivatives, high frequency trading, and all forms of speculation.  No candidate has even proposed this.  But this seems like common sense legislation

How is it even possible to ban speculation?  How would you do this?  Not sure how you distinguish "I'm buying these 5 homes in Florida because I might become a landlord" and "I'm buying them to speculate."  And what about the case where I genuinely want to be a landlord, but I run into liquidity troubles, and now need to sell?  Am I a retroactive speculator?

Same problem with currencies.  Countries have occasionally tried to ban speculation that a currency will drop, say, because the government is maintaining an expensive peg.  This is basically impossible to enforce even if you think it's a good idea.  What exactly can stop you from trading your dollars for swiss francs for Egyptian pounds?  And is this even a bad thing to begin with?  Maybe the government shouldn't have been pouring money into currency nonsense to begin with if you didn't want other people to come in and participate as well.

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If the Axis had won in WW2…honestly, Videogames would probably still exist, perhaps a little censored.

I realize you're being a tad flip / humorous with all the "solely with respect to the video game industry" comments, but you underestimate how horrible the Nazis were.  Speaking *solely* from the perspective of the closest equivalent to video games of the time, art & literature, the Nazis:
* Looted everything, including museums, and shot you if you got in the way
* Censored more than "a little", and this includes in 1932-38, so not something that goes away after wartime
* Enforced an art style that was somehow worse than Socialist Realism.  Like the commies, they hated anything abstract and imaginative, and preferred "classical" style paintings.
* The same with poetry: it was horrible, horrible chest-pounding doggerel about how awesome your nation is.  Musolinni even wrote some IIRC.
* You might have heard about some unpleasantness involving the Jews.  Well...  Jews were/are major players in the entertainment industry (most famously Hollywood) which has some cross-connection with videogames, and there'd be a lot fewer of them.
 
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Well here’s Trump saying he would negotiate for Chinese factories to have the same environmental regulations as US factories.

I wish President Trump good luck with this, it'll happen right after President Sanders defeats the invading spider-people.  Pretty sure other countries are sovereign entities; there's a huge amount of whining even within the EU about cross-national regulations.  Until the US is agreeable to complying by other countries regulations (hahahaha), I don't think we'll have much success convincing them to submit to ours.

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China was willing to bail out the US debt in 2008

People way overplay this meme.  China was buying tons of US debt before 2008 and they bought tons of treasuries afterward.  As do many world governments & corporations seeking a safe haven for money.  It just happened there was more debt for sale in 2008-09 then usual.  I doubt there was much "political" motive behind it as merely seeing treasuries as a solid & safe investment in a world economy that was in trouble.

metroid composite

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #157 on: May 24, 2016, 11:17:36 PM »
Home sick, Snow has some very good points which I should address.  (I suspect he's right and I'm wrong on a number of these points).  Going to start with miki tho, and then if I don't fall asleep from being sick I'll get to Snow next.

Just want to stick up for Breyer, who was the Democratically-appointed dissenter in Brown v. EMA.  So there are two dissents, one by Breyer and one by Thomas, and if you've only ever heard about the Thomas one, that's because it's insane, and Breyer's is not.  Breyer agrees with the majority that video games are a protected First Amendment form of expression, and must be treated as such (except to the extent they have physical conduct components) meaning any law regulating them must be narrowly tailored to meet a substantial government interest.  Where Breyer breaks from the majority is he says this law passes the test, by applying the settled Constitutional rule that minors have reduced First Amendment rights to speech aimed at minors rather than solely at speech performed by minors.  Hence upholding a civil fine for sales of GTAV to 10-year-olds.  This is debatable but not crazy.  Thomas...haha, Thomas just goes out and says that speech performed by minors and speech aimed at minors has no First Amendment protection whatsoever, meaning it can be banned and regulated however the state pleases.  This is crazy.

The bipartisanship of anti videogame rhetoric extended outside of the supreme court, to be fair.  Jack Thompson was a republican vying for a seat in...the house or the senate I believe.  (I think he lost the election).  But Hillary Clinton picked up the torch for him and argued against videogames in the senate.

I thought about including these two as examples, but with Hillary being a candidate, and with her opinion on whether videogames are speech being rendered rather irrelevant by Brown vs EMA, I figured this would be too much of a red herring.  Does Hillary still think videogames should not be protected under the first amendment?  Probably not, that was 10 years ago.  But even if she does, she can't do anything about it.

NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #158 on: May 25, 2016, 05:00:27 AM »
Honestly didn't even survey politicians' opinions because there was never anything they could do about it.  Brown v. EMA was an obvious decision based on recent Supreme Court precedent.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #159 on: May 30, 2016, 02:25:19 AM »
https://twitter.com/chrstphr_woody/status/737034448122880000

I'm unsure if I understand Libertarianism.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #160 on: May 30, 2016, 03:17:48 AM »
It's all about Freedom, Duck.  I thought you of all people would understand given your cultural heritage

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NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #161 on: May 31, 2016, 05:04:51 PM »
If only Hunter S. Thompson were alive...

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/05/gary_johnson_needs_to_leave_the_libertarian_party_behind.html

Quote
Polling fourth, one slot behind McAfee, was a fellow named Darryl W. Perry, who accepts campaign donations only in the form of precious metals and cryptocurrency and who opted to have his nominating speech delivered by an “erotic services provider” who goes by the moniker “Starchild.” Perry’s most animated moment in the debate came when he slammed his fist against his lectern, forehead veins a-popping, as he insisted that 5-year-old children should have the legal right to inject heroin without adult supervision.

Actually maybe the ghost of Hunter S. Thompson is haunting the convention site?
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #162 on: June 01, 2016, 09:24:50 PM »
I'm unsure if I understand Libertarianism.

As near as I can tell, Libertarians are just Republicans with an irrational fear of police.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #163 on: June 01, 2016, 11:23:15 PM »
If you dress and act like those dudes and dudettes...your fear of the police is plenty rational.
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NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #164 on: June 06, 2016, 07:20:54 AM »
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/the-problem-with-calling-out-judges-for-their-race/485732/

Posted mostly for the unholy beat-down administered to the chief counsel of Judicial Watch.  Anyway think it's safe to say Trump's attorneys are not going to go there.

p.s. do yourself a favor and don't read Alberto Gonzales' WaPo op-ed that is referenced in the article.  If you know nothing about the Judicial Code of Conduct and the concept of "appearance of impropriety," well, if you read that article you'll know even less than you do now.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 07:22:39 AM by NotMiki »
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metroid composite

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #165 on: June 07, 2016, 04:43:22 AM »
I'm unsure if I understand Libertarianism.

As near as I can tell, Libertarians are just Republicans with an irrational fear of police.

Mmm...in theory libertarians are more in favour of social freedoms.  Like...long before it was legalized, they didn't think the government should make a distinction between gay marriage and straight marriage as this was """regulation""".  Although they do tend to get off-message sometimes.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #166 on: June 07, 2016, 05:10:21 AM »
I have to wonder how much the philosophical underpinnings of the sane ones prevent them from being able to squash the ones that really shouldn't be speaking out loud.


Speaking of crazy people, tomorrow is the last set of primary contests.  So, my own personal bet is that Sanders will lose New Jersey handily, and will probably lose California by a few points.  At which point he will promptly declare the process and Hillary illegitimate, call on the superdelegates to flip to him, and vow to carry the fight to the convention despite it being mathematically impossible for him to win.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #167 on: June 07, 2016, 05:54:39 AM »
If he *wins* California, maybe (for all that there is no way he can win California by *enough* votes without divine intervention to win the pledged delegate count), he can argue that he won the late states which proves the early states just made an error and would have voted his way had they known how awesome he is or something.  If he loses, no way.  If he wants to argue the process is illegitimate so it should illegitimately support him over who the voters picked, he'll just announce a 3rd party candidacy.  Which I really doubt.

metroid composite

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #168 on: June 07, 2016, 07:52:46 AM »
I mean, him staying in gives him leverage to push Hillary further to the left, and gives him media focus on his message, which I think are the goals right now.  He's not going to publicly say these are the goals (since he wants his base to get out and vote), but realistically I think that's been the plan for a while.

Only way he gets the nomination is if Hillary gets arrested for the email stuff (which...the FBI seems to actually be hinting at happening) AND the electorate reacts negatively to this news (that remains to be seen.  Certainly a poll I saw not too long ago had a majority of democrats and even 35% of Republicans saying that Hillary should stay in the race even if Indicted).  Even if this happens, and the democrat party is swayed into thinking they can't run her, there's rumors that the establishment might have Hillary's delegates and the superdelegates band together and bring in Joe Biden.  So mmm...either way it's probably not going to be Bernie on the ticket in November.

A third party run seems unlikey.  Jill Stein is definitely trying to court him onto the Green Party ticket, but Bernie has also very clearly stated that he would much rather have Hillary in office than Trump.


Speaking of Trump...most of the recent polls are pretty grim (after closing on Hillary for months, he's been tieing and often beating her lately, particularly in swing states.  Trends can change, of course, but if trends continue as is then Trump is now the clear statistical favourite.)

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #169 on: June 07, 2016, 09:15:20 AM »
I wouldn't put any stock in that.  Candidates get a bump after the primaries.  Trump's ended, Clinton's hasn't.

The DNC running Biden if Clinton were forced to drop would be monumentally stupid though.  When probably the biggest wedge between conservative and progressive Democrats has been the perception of rigged elections, handing the nomination over to someone that didn't run would cause a pretty damned big splinter.
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #170 on: June 07, 2016, 08:26:59 PM »
Well hey, at least this is a rare occasion when voters in California actually have an impact on something.  Usually the races are decided by the time the west coast closes its polls.

But yeah I agree that if Bernie loses California he will probably throw in the towel.  If he wins we get to see how ballsy the superdelegates are.

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #171 on: June 07, 2016, 09:57:52 PM »
hahaha ok so this is just the best

people are sharing this infographic on facebook in support of bernie sanders

http://imgur.com/ugoBrWN

and nobody's mentioning how it says he needs 855 out of 714 delegates to win

guys

guys thats not how math works

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #172 on: June 07, 2016, 10:13:19 PM »
Wow, the horrible thing of that infographic isn't the 855 out of 714, since the point is that neither candidate can clinch it today.  It's that Hillary's numbers are possible (if unrealistic).  Also, that they make the entirely hilarious and unrealistic assumption that the superdelegates are entirely fluid as to who they can and will vote for.  Because the mechanic to push for party candidates to win will decide to abandon the party candidate who has a lead in both popular support and pledged delegates en mass.

As for the point that California matters.  I'm not entirely sure about that.  In practical terms, California matters less than BC in a Federal election.  At least we can effect the final numbers of seat, even if we will never decide who's running the country.  However, it is possible that it may lend some weight to Sander's antics.  But I'm not sure it will add enough heft that anybody who actually understands how things work will be willing to listen unless he can pull off some kind of 60-40 blowout.  Which means that the import of the California primary is being overblown by Sanders, where it's part of his narrative, and by the press, because it attracts attention and makes them cash.

NotMiki

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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #173 on: June 07, 2016, 10:48:38 PM »
I'm curious: why does California pretty much go last?  I've heard it said that smaller states should go earlier because that allows candidates who don't have a lot of money to gain traction, and that makes sense.  Is that it, or is there something else going on here?
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Re: Is there a politics thread? Guess I'm making one
« Reply #174 on: June 08, 2016, 10:06:11 AM »
To my knowledge, each state sets its own primary election date.  For whatever reason California has theirs late in the season.  This, combined with being in a west coast timeslot during the regular election, makes their relevancy disproportionate to their population.